Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY PEACH BOWL *BEST BET* on Ole Miss +3.5

Bottom Line: The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games while the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS versus excellent passing teams that average 275 passing YPG or more under coach Freeze and has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points. Pound Ole Miss.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans -1.5

Bottom Line: This is a challenging spot for Phoenix, which will be playing a 3rd road game in 5 days and this one comes after a long cross-country trip from LA. The Suns also have a big revenge game in Oklahoma City tomorrow so they could be peeking ahead to that one. New Orleans has had the last 2 days off so it should be the fresher team. It should also be the hungrier side as it tries to end 4-game losing streak to the Suns. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Penn +11.5

Bottom Line: LaSalle is 2-10 ATS since 1997 after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. The Explorers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 versus Ivy League opponents and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are 10-24 ATS in non-conference home games under coach Giannini and 27-41 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under their current coach. The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Playing road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) playing against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) has resulted in a 70-33 ATS record since 1997, provided the play on team allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher last time out.

5* WISEGUY MUSIC CITY BOWL *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +9

Bottom Line: We are getting Notre Dame at a great number because of its poor finish. Having had a month to regroup, I fully expect the Fighting Irish to give LSU a game. Notre Dame is on a 23-10 ATS run in road/neutral field game against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%, and it has won these games by an average of 3.9 points. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Pound the Fighting Irish.

4* MAJOR CBB HOME COURT *SUREFIRE* on Denver -4.5

Bottom Line: After giving Colorado State all it wanted, Denver suffered a letdown and lost to lowly Bryant. It was the kind of loss that gets the blood boiling. The Pioneers lost at St. Joe's by 1 points last season so they will draw added motivation from that. Home court has been good to Denver. It is 56-36 ATS in lined home games under coach Scott, including 23-10 ATS as a home favorites of 6 points or less or pickem. Additionally, Scott's teams are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games following a game where they shot 20% or worse from beyond the arc. They've won these seven by an average of 9.3 points.

4* MAJOR CBB DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH on BYU -10

Bottom Line: This may seem like a lot of points for 10-4 BYU to be laying against 10-3 Portland, but this is a tough spot for Portland. The Pilots are playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. BYU is also playing a 2nd game in 3 days but has been at home the entire time, and that makes quick turnarounds much easier. The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing a 2nd game in 3 days under coach Rose, and they have won these games by 23.0 points on average. BYU is 5-0 in its last 5 home games versus Portland with these wins coming by an average of 15.0 points.

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Kings/Nets UNDER 204.5

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on a team that has finished over the total in at least its last 2 games has resulted in a 108-58 (65%) record the last 5 seasons if that team is playing an opponent that has finished over the total in at least its last 4 games. Additionally, playing the UNDER on a road team when the total is 200 or higher has resulted in a 72-38 (66%) record since 1996 if the road team averages 102 PPG or more and is playing a team that averages 92-98 PPG, and if the road team allowed 55 points or more in the 1st half in its last 2 games. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY LIBERTY BOWL *BEST BET* on Texas A&M +2.5

Bottom Line: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. It is also 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Aggies.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +2.5

Bottom Line: Tough spot for Toronto playing without rest in high altitude. The difficulty of this spot is magnified by the fact it is off a big win and has a bigger game on deck. The Nuggets are 29-10 ATS in their last 39 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Denver is 14-4 ATS at home the last 3 seasons versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 6 PPG or more, and it has defeated these teams by an average of 1.4 points.

4* MAJOR NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -7

Bottom Line: The Packers do an exceptional job of taking care of the football, and that spells doom for Detroit, which is 0-11 ATS since 1992 in games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 1 or fewer turnovers per game. It has lost these games by 18.2 points on average. The Lions are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in home games versus mistake prone teams that average 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is 6-0 ATS this season after playing its last game on the road. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* WISEGUY NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on Panthers +3

Bottom Line: I like the Panthers catching a field goal given how successful they've been in the series of late. They are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with neither loss during this stretch coming by more than 2 points. The Panthers are starting to resemble the team that went 12-4 last season, holding their last 3 foes to 17 points or fewer. Carolina is 58-25 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 56-36 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Falcons are 12-25 ATS since 1992 in home games following a double-digit victory. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound the Panthers.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Monmouth -2.5

Bottom Line: Monmouth is coming off a pathetic performance against Saint Francis-New York. However, playing favorites that return all 5 starters and are off a game where they were held to 60 points or fewer has resulted in a 161-97 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Rutgers defeated Saint Francis-NY at home earlier this season by 3 points yet it is an underdog to a team that was just crushed by the same opponent? It appears odds makers are begging for money on Rutgers. Take Monmouth.

4* MAJOR NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Bears +7

Bottom Line: Odds makers have missed the mark. The Bears are 8-2 in their last 10 against the Vikings and haven't lost by more than 7 points during this stretch. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that check in off a road defeat has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record since 1983, provided they have a win percentage of 40-49% and are playing a team with a win rate of 25-40%. This rare system is 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* MAJOR NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets UNDER 191

Bottom Line: Lionel Hollins is a defensive-minded coach and can't be happy with yesterday's performance in Boston. The Nets got the win but allowed the Celtics to score 107 points on 51.7% shooting. Hollins has been able to make the proper adjustments and motivate his team following poor defensive game. The Nets are 8-0 under his watch after allowing 105 points or more and are holding opponents to only 94.0 in this spot.

4* MAJOR Holiday Bowl *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nebraska +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to the firing of Bo Pelini. Nebraska is 25-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games since 1992. USC is 6-17 ATS after any win over the last 3 seasons, 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road/neutral field games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY PRE-NEW YEAR's BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +3

Bottom Line: Penn State has the edge on the sidelines with James Franklin, and it also has the edge on the field with a stifling defense that ranks No. 1 in the nation against the run. The Nittany Lions match up with Boston College extremely well since the Eagles depend on their run game to move the football. It will be nothing doing on the ground against this stout Penn State defense. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 December games. Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Pound Penn State.

4* MAJOR Military Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +3

Bottom Line: Playing on any team 7 games or more into the season that averages 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry (VA Tech) and is up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry (Cincy) has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided the play on side allowed 75 rushing yards or less last game. Additionally, the Hokies are 12-3 ATS in road/neutral field battles following a close win of 7 points or less over a conference opponent under coach Beamer.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hornets +6.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from OKC following a big Christmas Day win in San Antonio. The Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season, and they'll be more rested and more prepared for this contest. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their 4 road games. Charlotte is 10-1 ATS in December road games under coach Clifford. Pound the Hornets.

5* WISEGUY St. Petersburg Bowl *BEST BET* on NC State +3

Bottom Line: The Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. They are also on an impressive 22-10 ATS run in road/neutral field venues when getting more than the typical week or preparation time. UCF has struggled when playing away from its home turf. The Knights have won by more than 3 points in just 2 of 6 road/neutral field games this season. This included a really bad loss at UConn. Pound NC State.

5* WISEGUY CHRISTMAS *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to a combination of Cleveland's back-to-back blowout wins and covers and Miami's ugly loss to the 76ers. This will be an emotional game for LeBron James as he returns to the place he won 2 Championships. He struggled mightily in the season opener in his return to Cleveland and I believe his emotions will also get the better of him in this one. I also expect a big effort from the Heat as they look to show LeBron that he would have been better off staying in South Beach. At the end of regulation, Cleveland has won by more than 5.5 points in just 3 of 11 road games this season. Miami has been a great bounce-back team this season at 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. Pound the Heat.

5* WISEGUY BAHAMAS BOWL *BEST BET* on Central Michigan +4

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to Western Kentucky's win over Marshall. I'm not sold on the Hilltoppers. Defense wins championships, and Western Kentucky is arguably the worst defensive team in the country. Central Mich is stout defensively, ranking 16th in the land in total defense with 331.3 ypg allowed. CMU is on a 21-8 ATS run versus excellent passing teams like WKU that average 275 ypg or more through the air. The Chippewas are on an 11-3 ATS run versus poor run defenses that allow 4.75 yards per carry or more. The Chippewas are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning record. The Chipps should cover this number behind solid defensively play and a strong running game. Pound CMU.

4* MAJOR POINSETTIA BOWL *PUNISHER* on Navy +3

Bottom Line: Navy is a nasty 71-35 ATS in road games since 1992, including 10-2 ATS during this stretch when catching 3 points or less. SDSU is 1-10 ATS since 1992 after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +14

Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game of the Cavs, which are off a big blowout win over Memphis and have a Christmas day showdown at Miami on deck. I don't see them giving the lowly T-Wolves their full attention tonight. Playing against home favorites after a game where they shot 60% or better has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, Tuesday night double-digit dogs that have a win percentage of 25% or worse on the season are 104-59 ATS since 1996. Pound Minnesota.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Niagara +2

Bottom Line: Off back-to-back wins over Mississippi State and Marshall, Arkansas State will be looking right past a Niagara team it blew out last season. I'm playing the revenge angle here as this is the first home game for the Purple Eagles since Dec. 6, and they'll be ready to get their revenge in front of their home crowd. Arkansas State is 19-36 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite under coach John Brady, including 6-17 ATS the last 3 seasons. 

5* WISEGUY Boca Raton Bowl *BEST BET* on Marshall -9

Bottom Line: The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 December contests, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus C-USA schools. All of these trends don't bode well for the Huskies, but here's the clincher: NIU is 0-7 ATS since 1992 in road/neutral field contests versus opponents that carry an average margin of victory of 17 PPG or more on the season. Pound the Thundering Herd.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Miami -1.5

Bottom Line: Look for Miami to bounce back strong following an ugly loss to Eastern Kentucky. The Hurricanes managed only 44 points on 29.3% shooting, but they are on a 13-1 ATS run when playing away from home after a game where they made 33% of their shots or less. They are on a 6-0 ATS run in games played away from home after being held to 55 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: Cincy has been awesome at home in recent years so the fact it has lost its last 2 home games in blowout fashion isn't sitting well. The Bengals also don't like the fact they've been blown out twice in primetime. I expect them to be the more motivated team tonight as a result. The Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday Night Football games. Pound Cincy.

5* WISEGUY NBA Pre All-Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Rockets -3.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Rockets, who were bounced by Portland in six games in last season's playoffs. What stings even worse is how they lost. It looked like Houston was going to force a Game 7, then Damian Lillard nailed a three-pointer as time expired. You just don't forget losses like that, and this is the first meeting since. Houston will be ready. The Rockets have been a much better play than Portland when facing quality competition. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60% while the Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Houston.

4* MAJOR Miami Beach Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on BYU +2

Bottom Line: BYU has better talent and coach Bronco Mendenhall has more experience than his counterpart preparing his team for big games. This is the 10th consecutive bowl appearance for the Cougars while Memphis is playing in its first bowl since 2008. BYU has won 6 of its last 8 bowl games and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Cougars are 18-7 ATS under coach Mendenhall when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Bet BYU.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing a team that has allowed 105 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in a 28-7 ATS record since 1996, provided their opponent is off a game where 165 points or less were scored. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, teams off 2 straight double-digit defeats are 46-18 ATS the last 5 seasons when they are playing a team that is off a game where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders +6

Bottom Line: Playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 33-13 (72%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 games has resulted in an 83-38 (69%) ATS record the last 31 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the 2nd half of the season. Pound the Raiders.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Georgia State -18.5

Bottom Line: The Panthers will be highly motivated following a loss at Old Dominion, and they'll show no mercy to a So. Miss team they lost to last season. The Panthers have played just 2 home games this season and won both handily. The 24-point win over Wisconsin-Green Bay was very impressive. So. Miss is 0-3 on the road this season and has been smacked by 23 and 20 points in its last 2 road games. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

5* WISEGUY DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE WEEK on Dolphins -6.5

Bottom Line: The Vikings have covered the number in each of their last 4 but 3 of those were at home. They are just 2-5 on the road this season and in a historically bad spot. Consider that they are 6-16 ATS in road games after covering the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 22 seasons. After getting taken out being the woodshed the past 2 weeks, I expect Miami to respond at home. Pound the Dolphins.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4

Bottom Line: Playing road teams that are out for revenge for a home blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a home win, has resulted in a 41-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Off a big win over the Clippers last night, Denver will have a tough time getting past a more motivated and better rested Indiana squad. Pound the Pacers.

5* WISEGUY NFL "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Chargers/49ers OVER 41.5

Bottom Line: Playing the over on home teams that have gained 250 or less total yards in 2 straight games in a matchup of teams with a yards per play differential of +/- 0.4 has resulted in a 41-16 (72%) record the last 31 seasons. This system is 9-1 the last 10 seasons. Additionally, playing the over on teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points that are off a home loss by 10 or more points and are up against an opponent that's off a road loss has resulted in a 54-26 (67.5%) record the last 10 seasons. Pound the over.

4* MAJOR New Mexico Bowl *BEST BET* on Utah State -10

Bottom Line: UTEP must be able to run the football to be successful, but it will have a difficult time running the ball on a Utah State defense that ranks 26th in the nation against the run. With extra time to prepare for UTEP's running game, I expect the Aggies to have success slowing it down. I also expect the Aggies to be highly motivated after getting embarrassed at Boise State last game. Utah State is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when getting a bye week's worth of time or more to prepare for an opponent. It is also on a 7-0 ATS run in road/neutral field games following any loss. UTEP is 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning record under coach Kugler and has lost to these teams by 30 PPG on average.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Drexel +7

The Key: Penn State is getting a little too much respect in this neutral floor contest. The Nittany Lions have been a terrible investment at 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games overall. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. These teams have played two like opponents this season and had very similar results. Drexel defeated Cornell by 2 points, Penn State defeated Cornell by 1. Drexel lost to USC by 2 points, Penn State defeated USC by 2 points. The results of those games show me this line is being inflated due to Penn State's overall record (10-2) versus Drexel's overall record (2-7). Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Bulls +6.5

Bottom Line: Memphis is being overvalued following back-to-back big wins over Golden State and San Antonio. The Bulls have been outstanding on the road where they are 11-4, and they are an incredible 17-5 ATS in Friday night road game over the last three seasons. Playing underdogs that are outscoring opponents by 3 PPG or more on the season and are matched up against a team that is coming off a close win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 46-21 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Bulls.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Saint Mary's +7

Bottom Line: Look for St. Mary's to give St. John's all it wants and more tonight. The Gaels got caught in a sandwich last game, losing to Northern Arizona, as they were off a big win at Creighton and had this contest on deck. The loss assures us they will be even more motivated. The Gaels are 11-3 ATS off a home loss of 3 points or less under coach Bennett. There is also another factor at play that can't be ignored. St. John's is 3-19 ATS after committing 8 turnovers or less under coach Lavin.

5* WISEGUY NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Titans/Jaguars OVER 40

Bottom Line: The Titans are 9-1 over after scoring 7 points or less in the 1st half in 2 straight games the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average of 57.0 total points scored in this spot. The Titans are 12-2 over lifetime after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. We've seen an average of 53.5 total points scored in this situation. Playing the over on road teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points has resulted in a 53-23 (70%) record the last 31 years, provided they are coming off 2 or more straight unders and are a team that has been outscored by 10 PPG or more on the season. We've seen an average of 45.5 total points scored with this system. Pound the over.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on South Florida +6

Bottom Line: Seton Hall is being overvalued here because it is 8-0 ATS in lined games this season. That's the type of streak the public takes notice of and the type of streak the books like to use against the public. The Pirates are 8-1 but have been aided by a schedule that has included just 1 road game to this point. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. It is also 8-2 in the last 10 with neither of the losses coming by more than 5 points. That creates a perfect 10-0 matchup trend given the number we are getting here.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +1.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Nuggets, who were defeated by double digits in Houston Saturday. I expect home court to make the difference as the home team is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 at home. These 4 wins came by an average of 12.0 points. Pound the Nuggets.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on New Mexico State +13.5

Bottom Line: Baylor is being overvalued at home. The Bears haven't played since Dec. 9, and I expect to see some rust. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six versus Western Athletic Conference opponents. The Aggies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record.

4* MAJOR NBA *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Pistons +6.5

Bottom Line: The public doesn't want any part of a Pistons team that is 5-20 on the season, but this is a good spot for them. The Mavs played in New York last night while the Pistons had the night off so I expect Detroit to be the fresher side. The Mavs will also be tempted to peak ahead to their next opponents - San Antonio. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest.

5* WISEGUY NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Kings +7.5

Bottom Line: The Kings are 17-4 ATS the last 3 seasons following a stretch of 8 or more losses in a 10-game span. They are also on a 32-16 ATS run as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9.0 points. Playing against favorites in a game involving teams with a +/- 3.0 PPG scoring differential, provide they are off a blowout win of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Sacramento.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Northern Arizona +14

Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for St. Mary's. The Gaels are coming off a big win over Creighton and they have another big showdown at St. John's on deck so I don't think they'll give Northern Arizona their full attention. The Gaels are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a cover. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Milwaukee as it hits the road following a big upset win over the Clippers. The Bucks are 4-14 ATS off an upset victory over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 12.3 points in this spot. The Suns have owned the Bucks at home to the tune of 16-1 since 1997. The Suns have won these games by an average score of 110 to 100. Bet Phoenix.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has way more to play for as it is still in the playoff hunt. Plus, I'm not hesitating to side with Drew Brees over Jay Cutler. Both teams have struggled defensively, but New Orleans has the edge with the far superior offense. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus strong offensive teams that average 350 ypg or more. They have lost these games by an average of 13.2 points. They are also 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by 18.0 points on average. Pound the Saints.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Austin Peay -2.5

Bottom Line:Austin Peay just played Saturday, but it is 36-25 ATS in home games when playing with 1 or no days of rest under coach Loos. The Governors will be lacking no motivation after a bad loss to Lipscomb. They are 28-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses under Loos. The Troy Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Bet Austin Peay.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +11

Bottom Line: Off a big win over the Clippers, it's going to be tough for Washington give the Jazz its full attention. I expect enough of a letdown from the Wizards for Utah to be able to keep this one within a generous number. Double digit dogs off 2 or more consecutive OVERS are 43-15 ATS the last 5 seasons, provided they average 92-98 ppg and are playing a team that allows 92-98 ppg. Additionally, Utah is 11-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after 2 or more consecutive OVERS. Bet the Jazz.

4* MAJOR NFC WEST *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +10

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Francisco's bad loss to the Raiders. The 49ers clearly suffered a letdown in the aftermath of losing a big game with Seattle. This is a proud 49ers team. Harbaugh is proud. Kaepernick is proud. The list goes on and on. This very well could be the end of the Harbaugh era and the end of the 49ers' run of NFC championship games, but they won't go down without a fight and would like nothing more than to keep Seattle from winning the division. Playing road teams off a road loss that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Playing underdogs or pickems in the 2nd half of the season that are off an upset loss on the road, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60%, has resulted in a 25-6 ATS record since 1983. Lastly, the 49ers are 9-0 ATS under Harbaugh when checking in with 2 losses in a 3-game game. They have won these 9 by an average of 13.6 points.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Fordham +16

Bottom Line: Fordham will be the more motivated team Sunday afternoon as it looks to save face following last year's 104-58 loss to St. John's. Prior to that defeat, Fordham had covered 4 straight against the Red Storm while playing them to within 11 points in the previous 3. The Rams are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games while the Red Storm are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus Atlantic 10 foes. Steve Lavin's teams are a miserable 63-94 ATS as a favorite since 1997.

5* WISEGUY NFL DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -10

Bottom Line: The Chiefs will be out for some serious revenge against an Oakland team that defeated them 24-20 Nov. 20. That loss started a 3-game skid for the Chiefs that has them on the brink of falling out of the AFC playoff hunt. I expect them to take their frustrations out all over an inferior opponent in Arrowhead Sunday. Playing home favorites of 3.5-10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are also coming off an upset loss has resulted in a 65-28 (70%) ATS record since 1983. Recently, this system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Chiefs.

5* WISEGUY NFL UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK on Bills +5.5

Bottom Line: Buffalo has an excellent chance of pulling off this upset. Green Bay is 3-3 on the road and would have covered this number in just 1 road game this season. The Packers have never won in Buffalo where they are 0-5. I like having the veteran Kyle Orton in this spot. He knows a thing of two about going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers and coming out on top. While with Kansas City in 2011, he ended Green Bay's then 19-game win streak. This is also a tough situational spot for Green Bay, hitting the road after playing the Monday night game. The Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday nighter. Pound the Bills.

5* WISEGUY CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -7

Bottom Line: This is a bad scheduling spot for Northern Iowa, playing 2 road games in 4 days. VCU has had a week to prepare, and it has lacked no focus as it looks to pay the Panthers back for last season's upset loss in Cedar Falls. Playing against road underdogs or pickems in the 1st 10 games of the season that return all 5 starters and held their last opponent to 55 points or less has resulted in a 29-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 11.9 points. Pound VCU.

4* MAJOR CFB RIVALRY *BLOOD BATH* on Army +15

Bottom Line: This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but I give Army a slight motivational edge. Navy has a bowl game to look forward to while Army does not. The Black Knights will be treating this as their bowl game. Army should also benefit from extra preparation time. It has had 3 weeks to gear up for this contest, 6 more days than Navy. Navy has won 12 straight in the series, and that's not sitting well with the Black Knights. Army appeared close to breaking through, playing the Midshipmen to 6-point game in 2011 and a 4-point game in 2012 before getting embarrassed 34-7 last season. Army returns 16 starters that remember how badly that loss hurt. The Black Knights may come up short, but should give Navy a game here. The Midshipmen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a losing record.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wizards +2.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Playing against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or better and are playing a winning team, has resulted in a 63-27 (70%) ATS record since 1996. Pound Washington.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Texas Southern +26

Bottom Line: Texas Southern has had over a week to get ready for the Gators and will also benefit from having already stepped on the floor with Indiana, Tennessee, SMU and Baylor. Texas Southern had performed well against quality competition before getting kicked at Baylor last time out, but that loss works in our favor. Road teams off a road loss where they were held to 60 points or less, provided they have a win percentage of 20% or worse on the season, has resulted in a 93-49 (65.5%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. The Gators are off a 38-point win over Yale but are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

5* WISEGUY Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals +4.5

Bottom Line: The Cardinals found a way to get it done in Kansas City Sunday despite playing less than their best on both sides of the football. That performance against an AFC foe actually bodes well for us as the Cards are 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game under Arians and 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game under Arians. The Rams will be out for revenge for last month's 31-14 loss in Arizona, but they are 11-30 ATS since 1992 when looking for same-season revenge. Plus, Fisher's squads are just 15-33 ATS all-time when laying 3.5 to 7.0 at home. Playing against home favorites off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Arizona.

4* MAJOR NBA on TNT "Total" DOMINATOR on Cavs/Thunder UNDER 204.5

Bottom Line: The Under is 6-0-1 in Cavaliers' last 7 games when playing on 1 days' rest, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400, 5-0-1 in their last 6 versus NBA Northwest opponents and 6-0 in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Under is 6-1 in Thunder's last 7 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 overall. The Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings, including 4-1-1 in the last 6 in OKC.

4* MAJOR CBB DOUBLE DIGIT *BLOOD BATH* on George Washington -10

Bottom Line: This may seem like books are asking too much of GW against a 6-1 DePaul team, but I don't think so. This is the first road trip outside Chicago this season, and that makes this a tough spot for the Blue Demons. DePaul has won 4 in a row, all by 11 points or more, but that actually plays in our favor. Playing against road dogs or pickems that have won 3 in a row by 10 points or more has resulted in a 90-47 ATS record the last 17 years, provided they average 76 or more ppg and are playing a team that allows 63 or less ppg. DePaul is yet to see a team that can get after it defensively the way GW does. Pound the Colonials.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Fairleigh Dickinson +18.5

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big win at Syracuse to jump into the Top 25, St. John's won't give Fairleigh Dickinson its entire focus. Road underdogs in the 1st 10 games of the season that return 2 starters and were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half last game are 53-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Johnnies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 20-31 ATS when laying points with Lavin as head man.

5* WISEGUY EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Hornets -2.5

Bottom Line: The Hornets have the edge at home against a Boston team that has lost 5 of its 1st 7 road games. Charlotte has been resting comfortably at home all month and has had 4 full days to prepare for the Celtics. Boston is playing for the 3rd time in 4 days with its most recent one going to double OT so it will be showing some fatigue. The Celtics have been awful on defense this season, especially on the road where they are giving up 110.3 ppg. They are 15-26 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 versus NBA Atlantic division foes. Pound Charlotte.

4* MAJOR NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers -2.5

Bottom Line: Sacramento's ball movement has suffered without Cousins in the post, and that has corresponded to losses. The Kings have dropped 4 of 6 since Cousins went down with an illness, and I don't like their chances here. The Lakers are on a 19-4 ATS run versus teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game. The Lakers have won 5 straight at home in the series.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +4.5

Bottom Line: Fatigue will be an issue for Phoenix, which is playing a 4th game in 5 days and went to OT last night in LA. Playing against home teams that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and are playing a 4th game in 5 days has resulted in a 139-86 ATS record since 1996. This system has gone 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Heat.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on UMKC +23.5

Bottom Line: Off a dominant performance against Arkansas and with a big rivalry game in Iowa City on deck, Iowa State will get caught looking past a UMKC squad it demolished by 59 points last season. The Kangaroos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Iowa State is on a 10-22 ATS slide versus teams with a win percentage of 20-40%. Playing against double-digit road underdogs in the first 10 games of the season that were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, provided they return just 2 starters, has resulted in a 66-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

5* WISEGUY MNF *BEST BET* on Falcons +14

Bottom Line: Green Bay is being overvalued at home against an Atlanta team that has turned the corner. The Falcons have played good football over their last five games, going 3-2 during this stretch with the 2 losses coming by a total of 3 points to very good Detroit and Cleveland teams. Atlanta's improvement has come from the defensive side of the football as it has allowed an average of only 19.5 points over its last four games. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. They have won by an average of 7.1 points in these games. Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points in the 2nd half of the season that have beaten the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in an 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 8.8 points on average. Lastly, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Pound Atlanta.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -110

Bottom Line: Tough spot for the Hawks playing a second game of a back-to-back versus a team that has had the last 2 days off. Playing against underdogs that allow 99 ppg or more on the season but have allowed 85 points or less their last 2 games has resulted in a 28-7 ATS record the last 18 seasons, including a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Pacers.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +5.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Denver's 30-point loss in Washington combined with Atlanta's 23-point win in Brooklyn. Prior to that, Denver had been playing outstanding basketball, and I expect it to come storming back against a team it's had a great deal of success against. Based on a number of +5.5, the Nuggets are 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Atlanta. Playing against home teams that led by 20 points or more at halftime of their previous game has resulted in a 99-56 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing on road teams off a blowout loss of 15 points or more, provided they average 103 ppg or more on the season, has resulted in a 124-71 ATS record the last 18 seasons.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFC *BEST BET* on Redskins +2.5

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that have covered the spread in 3 consecutive games or more, provided they have a win percentage of 40% to 49% and are playing a losing team, has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record over the last 31 years. Washington is a better team than its record looks and has been at its best this season with McCoy getting the snaps. Washington is the superior team statistically on both sides of the football, ranking 11th in both total offense and defense while the Rams rank 25th in total offense and 14th in total defense. In the games St. Louis has won, it has been aided by a plus-7 turnover margin. Washington has a good job of taking care of the football with McCoy in the game. He has just a 1.1 interception percentage. The Rams are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 19.6 points.

4* MAJOR AFC NORTH *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: After 2 losses in 3 games, the Steelers need this game. Recent history says they'll respond as they are 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus winning teams and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 11-2 in its last 13 trips to Cincinnati. In a big game, I'm going with Big Ben over Dalton. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY AFC NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR on Browns +4

Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road blowout loss of at least 14 points has resulted in a 78-42 against the spread record over the last 31 years. The Browns are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race, and I'm expecting Brian Hoyer to rise to the occasion and silence all the Johnny Manziel talk. The Colts have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, and Hoyer has been able to take advantage against such teams going 14-5-1 ATS in his last 20 games versus teams that give up 6.1-8.1 passing yards per attempt. Additionally, Hoyer is on a 9-0 ATS run in games when the total of 45.5-52.5 and has led his teams to victories by an average of 15.9 points in these games. Pound Cleveland.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +9.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Pelicans to come storming back following Thursday's ugly 27-points loss to Golden State. The Pelicans are 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers have been overvalued at home a lot lately, especially when rested. They are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Pound the Pelicans.

4* MAJOR BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL DOMINATOR on Ohio State/Wisconsin UNDER 52.5

Bottom Line: Ohio State will be limited offensively following the loss of J.T. Barrett. Wisconsin boasts an elite defense, and it should find plenty of success slowing down 3rd-string QB Cardale Jones. With the loss of Barrett, the Buckeyes lose the offensive balance that has made them so successful. I expect them to be a run-heavy team Saturday. Wisconsin will look to run the football as well because that's what it does. The Badgers rank 119th in the nation in passing offense. Ohio State has the horses to slow down Wisconsin's running game. It held the Badgers to just 104 yards on the ground in last season's meeting. In a matchup of 2 quality defenses that have the benefit of knowing what is coming the large majority of the time (running plays), I'll take the under.

5* WISEGUY SEC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Missouri +14.5

Bottom Line: Alabama is getting a little too much respect in this neutral field battle. The Crimson Tide have played 5 neutral field/road games this season and didn't win any of them by more than 14 points. Mizzou has been an awesome investment at 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. They are also 9-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Bama is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored under Saban. Saban's teams are 0-7 ATS all-time after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Pound Mizzou.

4* MAJOR BEDLAM *BLOOD BATH* on Oklahoma State +21

Bottom Line: Besides the fact this is a huge rivalry game, the Cowboys can become bowl eligible with a win. That provides added incentive here. It also helps that they've had an extra week to prepare. The series has been tight of late with 3 of the last 4 games being decided by 9 points or less. The one that wasn't was a 44-10 Oklahoma State victory. Playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense that allows 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game, has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Wisc.-Green Bay +10.5

Bottom Line: This is a very dangerous game for Miami. Wisc.-GB is an experienced team, and it will be livid after getting murdered by Georgia State. The Phoenix return 4 starters from a team that defeated Virginia last season. They are 29-10 ATS when playing with 1 day of rest or none under coach Wardle and 15-6 ATS under their current coach when playing a 2nd road game in 3 days. Don't be surprised if they shock the Hurricanes.

4* MAJOR PAC-12 *PUNISHER* on Oregon -13

Bottom Line: The Ducks are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games with each of their last 6 wins coming by at least 18 points. They have just 1 blemish on their record - Arizona - and I expect them to avenge that loss in impressive fashion. The Ducks are 6-0 ATS after leading their previous game by 24 points or more at the half under coach Helfrich. They have won by an average of 32.8 points in this situation. Oregon is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral field battles after 3 straight covers as a favorite of 7 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It's won by an average of 27.8 points in this situation. Oregon is one runaway freight train I'm not about to step in front of.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Timberwolves +7

Bottom Line: Look for Houston to get caught looking ahead tonight. The Rockets are prime for a letdown following a win over Memphis and with a tough game against Phoenix on deck tomorrow. They have already defeated the Timberwolves by double-digits this season so they will be thinking they can just show up and win. Minnesota, however, just lost to the worst team in the league, and I'm expecting an inspired effort in the aftermath of that. The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days' rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. Pound Minnesota.

4* MAJOR CBB *SUREFIRE* on Florida International +29.5

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big win over Ohio State, motivation will be an issue for Louisville as it takes on an FIU squad it defeated by 29 last season. The Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 lined home games and just 27-40 ATS in home games in December under Pitino. The Golden Panthers are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points.

5* WISEGUY MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Bowling Green losing its last 2. The Falcons had nothing to play in either game as they had already wrapped up the division. Now, they have everything to play for as they have an opportunity to make it back-to-back MAC titles. This is Northern Illinois' 5th straight MAC Championship game, but it has been far from dominant in the previous 4, going 2-2 with the largest margin of victory at the end of regulation being 3 points (won by 7 in OT in the other). Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in road/neutral field venues versus conference foes. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss to a conference foe as a favorite of 10 or more, provided the game is being played after the first month of the season, has resulted in a 55-25 ATS record since 1992. Pound the Falcons.

4* MAJOR TNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cowboys -3.5

Bottom Line: Chicago is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus good ball-control teams that average 32 minutes of possession time or more per game. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 350 yards per game or more. They are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt. Chicago is 0-8 SU and ATS in games Jay Cutler plays when the total is 48-55. It has lost these games by an average of 20.1 points. The Bears are also 0-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games under coach Trestman, losing these contests by an average of 15.5 points.

4* MAJOR NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +7

Bottom Line: Even bad teams tend to get up for national TV spots, and I fully expect the Knicks to get up for LeBron and company tonight. The Knicks are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Thursday TNT games. The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Cavs have only 1 win of more than 6 points on the road this season. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY CFB *BEST BET* on ECU -6.5

Bottom Line: Playing on excellent running teams that average 4.8 yards per rush or more when they are taking on a poor running team that averages 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, provided it is a conference matchup, has resulted in a 95-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 21-3 ATS this season, and I'm going to ride it. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +4

Bottom Line: This is a difficult spot for Toronto, which is playing its 2nd road game in as many nights and it's 3rd in 4 days. It has a big showdown with Cleveland on deck so it will be easy to peek ahead to that one since it handled Utah easily at home last month. The Jazz will be the fresher team having had yesterday off. They'll also be the more motivated squad as they look to end a 6-game slide and avenge that earlier loss in Toronto. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Pound Utah.

4* MAJOR CBB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on La Salle +11

Bottom Line: The odds makers have missed their mark here. La Salle is 27-14 ATS all-time as a double-digit underdog under coach Giannini. Additionally, playing December double-digit dogs that are off an upset loss has resulted in a 223-141 (61.3%) ATS record since 1997.

4* MAJOR CBB LETDOWN GAME OF THE WEEK on George Mason +4

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Old Dominion in its first true road game of the season following Saturday's big upset win over VCU. Old Dominion shot the lights out from 3-point range in their last game, but teams headed up by Jeff Jones are 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better since 1997. Teams headed up by Paul Hewitt are 24-11 ATS all-time as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pickem.

5* WISEGUY CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +7.5

Bottom Line: Indiana State is difficult to beat at home and is very difficult to defeat by a wide margin. By my count, the Sycamores have lost by fewer than this number in 41 of their last 45 home games. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 3-0 in the last 3, 5-1 in the last 6 and 10-2 in the last 12. Only 1 time during this span has the home team lost by more than 7.5 points. Pound Indiana State.

4* MAJOR NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets +3.5

Bottom Line: Denver has lost the season's first 2 meetings with Portland handily, but that was before it started its current 8-2 run. I like the Nuggets to have their revenge tonight at home. The Nuggets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

4* MAJOR CBB *BLOOD BATH* on Kansas State -13

Bottom Line: K-State has lost its last 2 with the most recent being an ugly 70-47 loss to Pitt. I expect the Wildcats to come storming back at home. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss or more than 20 points. They are also 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams that average 77ppg or more under coach Weber.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Pistons -1.5

Bottom Line: Following a big upset win over Toronto, expect the Lakers to suffer a letdown as they hit the road for the first time since Nov. 21. Detroit has underachieved to this point given the level of talent it has on the roster. After playing 6 straight games against teams with winning records, and losing all 6, the Pistons will be going after a win tonight with all they've got. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +7.5

Bottom Line: The Hawks are the more rested team having had the last 2 days off while the Celtics just had yesterday off. Fresh legs have done Atlanta no good against the number as it is 6-25 ATS in its last 31 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Boston has shown the ability to score the basketball, and that makes it an attractive dog here. Playing underdogs that average 103 or more ppg that are taking on a team that has scored 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 96-45 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +3

Bottom Line: Look for the Jazz to bounce back at home following Saturday's 112-96 loss to the Clippers. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Nuggets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 versus the Western Conference and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NBA Northwest division. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Utah.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Oral Roberts +5.5

Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Oral Roberts, which still has 6 players on the roster from the team that lost to Weber State in the 2013 CIT Quarterfinals. The Wildcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a cover. Road underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .200 to .400 that are playing their 3rd game in a week and are playing another team with a losing record are 296-194 ATS since 1997.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets were brutally embarrassed by the Bills last Monday, which is all the more reason to back them here. Playing teams off a loss of 28 points or more that have been outscored by an average of 4.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Jets were held to 3 points last Monday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 15 points. Miami put up 36 in Denver but is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points. The Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Jets.

4* MAJOR *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -3

Bottom Line: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are 9-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750 since 1992 and have defeated these teams by an average of 14.0 points. The Patriots are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on grass while the Packers are 6-0 ATS on grass this season.

4* MAJOR *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Falcons +1.5

Bottom Line: Arizona's confidence took a hit with last week's crushing defeat in Seattle. Now it has to make the cross-country trip to face an Atlanta team that has been really good at home since Matt Ryan starting manning the controls. With Stanton starting the last 2 games, the Arizona offense has managed only 17 points. Playing against teams with a win percentage of .750 or higher that have covered 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 144-95 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +3.5

Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to fade the Bulls following Friday's win in Boston as they are 0-7 ATS this season off a road win, losing these contests by an average of 4.2 points. The Nets will be the fresher side as they have had the last 3 days off. Playing home teams off a road win over a division opponent that are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days has resulted in a 36-14 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Western Michigan +2.5

Bottom Line: Western Mich lost by 7 at San Diego Nov. 24, but I expect it to have its revenge in this neutral court rematch. The Broncos are 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, winning by an average of 9.3 points in these contests. They are also 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons in games when the line is +3 to -3, winning these contests by an average of 8.2 points.

4* MAJOR *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Saints +5

Bottom Line: Despite a 4-7 record and 3 consecutive SU and ATS losses at home, the Saints will be fully invested in this contest. They are still tied for 1st in the NFC South so they have no reason to hang their head. The Saints have been extremely competitive on the road this season. They are 1-4 away from home but 3 of the losses have come by 3 points or less. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record. New Orleans is 21-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 ppg or more under Sean Payton. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points.