Winning Sports Picks

4* MAJOR SUPER BOWL "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 48.5

Bottom Line: Odds makers have set the bar too high for this one. The UNDER has been the play for both teams down the stretch as New England is 5-2-1 under in its last 8 games and Seattle is 5-3 under in its last 8 and would have been 6-2 under had the NFC Championship not went to OT. Additionally, Belichick's teams are 25-11 UNDER since 1992 in games played away from home versus teams that average 24.0 PPG or more. If the game took place in the second half of the season, this system tightens up to 17-5. This system speaks to Belichick's ability to concoct game plans to slow down even the best offensive teams. The UNDER is also 4-1 in New England's last 5 Super Bowl games and 11-5 in Seattle's last 16 games versus team with a winning record. Seattle was the #1 ranked defensive team in the NFL during the regular season. New England ranked #8 in scoring defense. Plus, it has held opponents to just 85.1 ypg on the ground over its last 10 games. So much of what Seattle does offensively is set up by the run, but it will have a tough time going off on the ground versus this New England defense. Bet the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* on Patriots +2 (Note: Not sure why the line feed shows -1 because I locked in at +2 well over a week ago. With that said, I like the Pats strong regardless and the play will be graded according to the -1 line.)

Bottom Line: While Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are good, Brady and Belichick are better. The Patriots have lost their last two Super Bowls, but that's even more reason to back them. I think they'll want this one just a little bit more as a result. If you watched the NFC Championship, you know how fortunate Seattle is to be here. Russell Wilson struggled despite getting plenty of help from the running game. New England's run defense is a lot better than Green Bay's, which means Wilson will likely be asked to outduel Brady, and the odds aren't in favor of that. Seattle has been excellent offensively this season averaging 375 yards per game. But, New England is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 375 ypg or more, and it has won these games by an average of 16.7 points. Pound the Pats.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Knicks -3

Bottom Line: The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season. They lost by 21 at Indiana last time out, but that loss came a night after a big win over the Thunder so it was a letdown spot. New York is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 at home, and I expect this trend to continue. The Lakers are now in a letdown spot following a big upset win over the Bulls. They've lost 9 of their last 10 and have really struggled on the road where they are 0-6 in their last 6. LA is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games. The home team has had a significant edge in this series of later, going 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins coming by at least 6 points.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette +2.5

Bottom Line: With Steve Wojciechowski at the helm, Marquette is 7-0 ATS versus teams that outscore their opponents by 8.0 ppg or more. Additionally, the Golden Eagles are 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Pound Marquette.

4* MAJOR ACC *SUREFIRE* on Pitt +5.5

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame being just 2 days removed from a gigantic victory over Duke. The Irish haven't been reliable when laying points at just 8-17 ATS as chalk since the start of last season. The Panthers are 41-29 ATS when catching points under Dixon, and the dog has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa +5.5

Bottom Line: Iowa will be out for blood at home, where it is 10-2, following back-to-back losses on the road. One of those was a brutal 82-50 loss at Wisconsin. That game was an aberration as Iowa had won or lost by fewer than 5.5 points in each of the previous 7 battles. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Badgers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Iowa. Pound the Hawkeyes.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* (ESPN) on Suns -5

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for the Bulls, who are playing their 2nd road game in as many nights and 3rd in 4 days. To make matters worse, each of Chicago's last two games have gone to OT, and it played a double-OT game last night. I just don't see Chicago having enough left in the tank to keep this one within the number against a Phoenix squad that has been at home and is rested. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 versus Eastern Conference opponents. Pound the Suns.

4* MAJOR NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Lakers +8.5

Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for the Bulls who are off a thrilling upset victory over the Warriors. It's also a look-ahead spot with a game in Phoenix tomorrow night on deck. Chicago will want to make sure it has something left in the tank for that one. The Bulls are 3-13 ATS following a road win this season. They are 26-47 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record and 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400.

5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on UTEP -11

Bottom Line: UTEP fits into an extraordinary situation tonight. Consider that home favorites or pickems that check in off 2 consecutive upset defeats or more, provided they return 4 starters from last year's team, are 30-8 ATS the last 18 years. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.0 points. Making this play even stronger is the fact UTEP is 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons when check in off an upset defeat to a conference for. It has won these games by 15.5 points on average. The Miners are 9-1 ATS in home games following any upset defeat under coach Floyd and have won by an average of 15.0 points in these games. Pound UTEP.

4* MAJOR NBA *PRIME TIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -10

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Denver, which will be playing its 4th game in 5 days and has had to travel after its last 2. Playing road games on consecutive nights is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing without a day of rest. To make matters worse for Denver, Memphis will be motivated. The Grizzlies were embarrassed in Denver earlier this month, and they will be looking for payback. We saw the way they paid back Dallas on the road last game, crushing the Mavs 109-90 as 6-point dogs. That win is worth mentioning because the Grizzlies are 16-3 ATS in home games when checking in off a double-digit upset victory on the road since 1996.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +7

Bottom Line: I like the Kings catching a fair amount of points as they will be the much fresher side. Sacramento has been off since Friday while Toronto just played last night in Indiana. I also expect to see a stronger defensive effort from the Kings after allowing Klay Thompson to set records for points and 3-pointers in a quarter. The Raptors are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at home. Playing on road teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in an 85-45 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided they average 98-102 ppg and are playing a team that allows 98-102 ppg.

5* WISEGUY CBB UNDERDOG SHOCKER OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +4.5

Bottom Line: South Carolina has lost 5 of 6 in league play, including 3 straight, but I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight. Home court is huge in CBB, but it hasn't mattered in this series as the home team is 0-5 in the last 5 meetings with the losses coming by an average of 9.6 points. I really believe the Gamecocks are the better team. Their record doesn't show it, but they've played a much tougher schedule. They will also be the more motivated team tonight as they look to end their skid. Pound South Carolina.

5* WISEGUY CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -4

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home in this highly motivated spot. Not only are they off a 10-point loss at K-State, but they lost both meetings with Baylor last season. They'll be out for some serious revenge tonight. Oklahoma State is a ridiculous 50-28 ATS in lined home games under Travis Ford and has won these by 10.3 points on average. It is 44-23 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under Ford, winning these by 12.1 points on average. Additionally, the Cowboys are 25-12 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread under their current coach and have won these contests by 12.4 points on average. Pound Oklahoma State.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4

Bottom Line: The Raptors have been struggling for a month. They've lost 8 of 13 SU and are just 2-10-1 ATS during this span. The Pacers have been struggling too, but largely because they've been spending a lot of time on the road. They have won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 6 of their last 7 home games against Eastern Conference opponents, including 4 straight. They've also won or lost by fewer than 4 points in each of their last 11 home games against the Raptors. Grab the points.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Magic +12.5

Bottom Line: Memphis won in Orlando by 10 points Jan. 16 so it will be looking right past the Magic and onto tomorrow night's revenge game at Dallas. The Grizzlies just lost to Dallas Jan. 19 and will be looking for payback. That gives us a good opportunity here. The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Grizzlies are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Orlando is 17-8 ATS as a road underdog this season while Memphis is on a 14-30 ATS slide as a double-digit favorite.

5* WISEGUY NBA LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK on Suns +3

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here, and the Clippers have been a terrible play as small road chalk. LA is 8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons and has lost these games by an average of 2.0 points. Playing against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 in the second half of their schedule following a game where they shot 55% or better, provided it is a matchup of teams that have held opponents to an average of 43.5-45.5% shooting on the season, has resulted in a 22-4 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Suns are 34-19 ATS as an underdog the last 2 seasons and 27-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Phoenix.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Ohio State -8

Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Indiana as it heads out on the road following a big win over Maryland. This is just the 4th true road game of the season for the Hoosiers, so based on the line, odds makers are telling us Indiana's record wouldn't be nearly as good had they stepped out on the road a few more times. This is a big revenge spot for Ohio State, which lost by 3 at Indiana earlier this month. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home on the season where they have a ridiculous 28.3-point average margin of victory. Indiana is 14-30 ATS in road games following a cover under Crean, including 5-14 ATS in this spot the last 3 seasons. Ohio State is 26-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Matta.

4* MAJOR NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 185.5

Bottom Line: Charlotte is a terrific defensive team. It's held 8 of its last 11 opponents to below 40% shooting. However, it allowed Cleveland to shoot 51.7% last night. This team is not happy with that effort and will tighten the screws defensively tonight. The Knicks had been playing exceptional defense over a 3-game stretch and then allowed Orlando to shoot better than 50% last night. They know they'll have to be much better at the defensive end in this one if they're going to avenge back-to-back losses to Charlotte. The under is 4-0 in the Hornets' last 4 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The under is 5-1 in the Knicks' last 6 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -5

Bottom Line: Illinois has been a completely different team away from home and is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road/neutral floor games. The 6 SU losses during this span all came by at least 7 points. Minnesota has been at its best at home where it is 10-2 with an average winning margin of 21.0 points. Minnesota is off to a 1-6 start in Big Ten play and was upset on this floor by Illinois last season so it will not be lacking any incentive. Pound the Golden Gophers.

4* MAJOR on Nebraska-Omaha -1.5

Bottom Line: Denver has really struggled on the road where it is 1-6 this season. It is 11-25 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pickem under coach Scott. Nebraska-Omaha has lost 5 straight and was swept by Denver last season so it will be very, very hungry.

4* MAJOR MOUNTAIN WEST MASSACRE on Air Force +6.5

Bottom Line: Huge letdown spot for Boise State following a 50-point win over San Jose State. Huge bounce-back spot for Air Force following a 32-point loss to San Diego State. Boise Sate is 0-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. It is 0-7 ATS off a home win of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

4* MAJOR on IUPUI -2

Bottom Line: Terrible spot for South Dakota, which is playing its 3rd consecutive road game and 2nd in 3 days. IUPUI is off a loss but is an outstanding 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following defeat. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* MAJOR BIG EAST *BLOOD BATH* on Xavier -12

Bottom Line: This may seem like a lot of points but Xavier is 10-0 at home on the season and has won these games by an average of 18.3 points. DePaul upset the Musketeers in the first meeting, but they are 12-3 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss over the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Timberwolves +7

Bottom Line: This is too many points for New Orleans to be laying on the road given its weak 8-16 road record. The Pelicans destroyed Minnesota by 48 at home in the season's first meeting and will be looking right past the Wolves and onto Sunday's showdown with Dallas because of it. You can bet Minnesota hasn't forgotten about that brutal defeat, and it will be out to save face. New Orleans took care of business against the Lakers last time out but is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The home team has enjoyed a nice edge in the series as it is on a 7-0 SU and ATS run. 4 of these were in Minnesota.

4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder +4.5

Bottom Line: This line in an overreaction to Atlanta's unexpected run. The Thunder are more talented and starting round into shape now that they're healthy. The Thunder are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NBA Southeast division. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Thunder are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Atlanta.

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Raptors/76ers OVER 194

Bottom Line: Toronto has had no trouble controlling the pace against poor teams. The Raptors are 12-3 OVER the last 2 seasons versus teams that have a win percentage of 25% or less. We have seen an average of 208.0 total points scored in these games. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams with 6 of the meetings totaling 199 points or more. We've seen an average of 207.6 total points scored in these 7 matchups. Pound the OVER.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Indiana -1.5

Bottom Line: This line opened as a pickem and has since been bet up which is the right move. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Crean and have won these 6 by an average of 8.0 points. While this trend is in play because of the opening line, it is also worth mentioning that Indiana is 26-9 ATS at when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. It is 16-6 ATS during this span as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pickem. Maryland went off from deep in its rout of Michigan State, but it is 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where it made 50% of its 3 point shots or better under coach Turgeon, and it has lost these 7 by an average of 17.5 points.

4* MAJOR NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls +6.5

Bottom Line: It's gut check time for the Bulls. Look for them to put forth an outstanding effort tonight in a highly motivated spot. The Bulls haven't lost 3 consecutive games all season. They are 11-5 following a loss and 3-0 following 2 straight losses. They are an impressive 50-33 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under Tom Thibodeau. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -10

Bottom Line: The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games while the Blue Demons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. The Pirates are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Pirates are also 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Seton Hall is off its first home loss of the season, which can't be sitting well. Plus, it lost its last meeting with DePaul so it will have no problem getting up for this one. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games against the Blue Demons with the wins coming by an average of 12.4 points so there is plenty of value in Seton Hall here.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Illinois -3

Bottom Line: This is a highly motivated spot for the Fighting Illini. Illinois just suffered its first home loss of the season and will be looking to bounce back tonight. It gets further incentive from a home loss to Purdue in last season's meeting. The Illini is 8-1 at home where it has a nice win over Maryland, so it has shown the ability to take down a better team on this floor than the one it will see tonight. The Fighting Illini are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a losing road record.

5* WISEGUY NBA WESTERN CONF. GAME OF THE WEEK on T-Wolves +8.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Dallas following Monday's big win at Memphis. The Mavs have a matchup with Chicago on Friday and are very likely already peeking ahead to that one mentally. It will be hard for Dallas to get up for the lowly T-Wolves, but it won't be hard for Minnesota to get up for this one. It's finally home after a week on the road, and it will be out for revenge for a 131-117 November loss in Dallas. The Mavericks are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus Western Conference opponents. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus Western Conference foes. Pound Minnesota.

4* MAJOR CBB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nevada +1

Bottom Line: Look for the Wolf Pack to come storming back following an ugly 98-42 loss at Colorado State. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Nevada has also been a nice play in games odds makers expect to be close. It is 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +8.5

Bottom Line: Look for Denver to come storming back at home following last night's brutal 122-79 loss at Golden State. The Nuggets have been a strong play at home in recent seasons against good teams, going 25-12 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3.0 PPG or more. Denver has defeated these teams by an average of 3.4 points. The Spurs are off a dominant 89-69 win over Utah, but they are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. Pound Denver.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on South Carolina -6.5

Bottom Line: The Gamecocks check in having lost 3 of their last 4. They have also dropped 14 in a row to the Volunteers. Yet, they are laying quite a few points tonight. Clearly books want the money coming in on Tennessee. We won't take the bait. It is significant that the Gamecocks have been installed as favorites since the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I fully expect this trend to continue. Look for South Carolina to finally break through against the Vols.

4* MAJOR A-10 *SUREFIRE* on Davidson -2.5

Bottom Line: Look for Davidson to hand Dayton its first conference loss. The Wildcats are 8-0 at where they are winning by an average of 24.9 points. Dayton has found its way into the Top 25 behind 8 straight victories. It has even covered the spread in its last 5 but is 0-8 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1997 and has lost these by an average of 10.0 points. Davidson is 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.

5* WISEGUY SUN BELT GAME OF THE MONTH Louisiana-Lafayette -7.5

Bottom Line: Louisiana-Lafayette got off to a 4-0 start in Sun Belt play but has since lost its last 2. Despite the losses, it can pull even with UL Monroe for first place in the league with a win here, and I expect it to take care of business. The Ragin' Cajuns are 7-1 in their last 8 at home versus Monroe with the 7 wins coming by an average of 15.7 points. Despite the bad loss to South Alabama last game, ULL's high scoring output is a good sign. The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after scoring 80 points or more last game. They have won by a ridiculous average margin of 25.3 points in these contests. Pound ULL.

5* WISEGUY MLK DAY *BEST BET* on Knicks +7

Bottom Line: The Knicks have been awful, but I'm not hesitating to back them catching a good number in a favorable spot. The Pelicans are on a 10-22 ATS slide as a road favorite. They are off a big upset win in Toronto yesterday but are 0-7 ATS this season when checking in off an upset victory. They have lost these 7 by a whopping 16.3 points on average. New Orleans is also 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Additionally, home underdogs that are playing for the 3rd time or fewer in a 10-day span are 79-41 ATS since 1996 if they failed to cover the spread last game. Pound NY.

4* MAJOR AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *SUREFIRE* on Colts +7

Bottom Line: The Patriots have been a bad play in the postseason. They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships contests. New England crushed Indy 42-20 in November, but the Colts are on a 34-16 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. The Indy defense has been lights out in the playoffs. That's a great sign because the Colts are 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Pagano. They've won by an average of 8.3 points in this situation. The Pats are 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game under coach Belichick. They have won in this spot but only by an average of 1.3 points. Grab the points.

4* MAJOR NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Thunder/Magic UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on any team (OKC) that is off 2 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 108-60 record the last 5 seasons when they are matched up against a team that is off 4 or more consecutive overs. Additionally, when the total is 210 or higher, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off an upset win of 10 points or more at home has resulted in a 29-7 record since 1996. Lastly, the UNDER is 11-1 in OKCs last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.

5* WISEGUY NFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Packers +7.5

Bottom Line: Green Bay lost 36-16 on this field clear back in the season opener, but a lot has changed since then. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to take the Seahawks right down to the wire. The biggest thing that has changed is Green Bay's run defense. The Packers allowed Seattle to run for 207 yards in the first meeting, but they have held their last 9 opponents to an average of 92.9 yards. Not surprisingly, they are 8-1 during this span. Seattle has given up only 15.9 ppg this season, but the Packers are 9-1 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 17.0 ppg or less under coach McCarthy. Green Bay won these games by an average of 4.3 points. Pound the Packers.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers +2.5

Bottom Line: Plays on underdogs that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent that is off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-34 ATS record the last 5 seasons. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest and 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in Saturday road games. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60% and 3-11-1 ATS in their 14 home games against the Blazers.

4* MAJOR ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on UConn +5

Bottom Line: Look for UConn to bounce back strong off a loss at Tulsa. The Huskies were upset at home by Stanford last season and will draw added motivated from that defeat. The Huskies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. They're also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games that occur 15 games or more into the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-80%, and they have defeated these teams by an average of 9.0 points.

5* WISEGUY SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri pk

Bottom Line: Missouri was buried Tuesday at Kentucky, but it is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 following a loss, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 following a loss of more than 20 points and 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 at home. The Vols are a poor 3-11-1 ATS on the season, including 1-4-1 ATS in road/neutral court games. They're also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. These teams have met 3 times since Missouri joined the SEC and the home team is 3-0. Pound the Tigers.

5* WISEGUY ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Thunder +2.5

Bottom Line: It's gut check time for the Thunder, and I expect them to respond. They have been really good at home where they are 4-0 in their last 4 and 9-2 in their last 11. 1 of the 2 losses came by 2 points and the other came in OT so based on this number, the Thunder are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games. Now that's a trend I'll gladly get behind. Golden State is 0-2 in its last 2 and 1-3 in its last 4 on the road. Also, since the Super Sonics moved to Oklahoma City and became the Thunder, they are 10-2 at home versus Golden State. Pound OKC.

4* MAJOR *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Raptors +1

Bottom Line: Atlanta is getting too much respect on the road because it has won its last 10 games while going 9-0-1 ATS in these contests. I believe the streak comes to an end tonight as it has not been able to figure out the Raptors. Toronto has won the season's first 2 meetings and is 3-0 in the last 3. The 3 wins came by 10, 7 and 11 points. The Raptors are also 3-0 in their last 3 home games versus the Hawks with the wins coming by 12.7 points on average. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Hawks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

4* MAJOR BOUNCE BACK *BLOOD BATH* on Nets +10

Bottom Line: I like the Nets to bounce back strong tonight. They are 11-2 ATS after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and have won by an average of 8.7 points in this situation.

5* WISEGUY PAC-12 PUNISHER OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +5

Bottom Line: I like ASU catching points at home in a motivated spot against an overvalued Utah squad that I expect to show some rust following a 7-day layoff. Playing home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog has resulted in a 24-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons if they are up against an opponent that's off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. The home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.4 points. ASU's 4 home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 4.8 points so I have no problem taking the points in a game it should have a chance to win outright.

4* MAJOR BIG 10 *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Wisconsin -14.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska is off back-to-back double-digit wins at home but things haven't gone as smoothly for the Huskers on the road. They are 1-8 ATS in road games after a win of 10 points or more under coach Miles. They also catch Wisconsin at a bad time. The Badgers are off a bad loss at Rutgers and will be out for blood as a result. I expect an inspired performance from Frank Kaminsky in his return and for Bronson Koenig to step up for the injured Traevon Jackson. The Cornhuskers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder +1.5

Bottom Line: The fresher team has a huge advantage, and the Thunder will be the much fresher team tonight. OKC has had the last 5 days off while the Rockets played in Orlando last night and are playing their 13th game in 19 days. They were on the road 6 of their last 8 games, which adds to the fatigue. The Thunder lost by 4 at home when these teams met earlier this season but Westbrook and Durant weren't available for that one. With both active here and with OKC much fresher, I like the Thunder to have their revenge. Playing on teams when the line is +3 to -3 that will be playing just 3 times or less in 10 days and are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent has resulted in a 51-20 ATS record since 1996.

4* MAJOR CBB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Florida Atlantic +4

Bottom Line: FAU isn't getting the respect it deserves at home. The Owls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with only 1 of the defeats coming by more than 4 points. This has been a highly competitive series in which the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Owls are 5-1 at home on the season with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. WKU hasn't been on the road since Dec. 13 and is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 road games.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nuggets -2.5

Bottom Line: This is a favorable spot for Denver, which has had the last 4 days off to rest up and prepare for this contest. The Mavs, meanwhile, are off a tough OT game in Sacramento last night and now head to the thin Denver air with tired legs. The Mavericks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 versus Western Conference foes and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Nuggets are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 27-10-2 ATS in their last 39 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST  BET* on Bulls -5.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bulls, who were defeated 102-86 at Washington last week. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS when out for revenge for a double-digit defeat since the start of last season. Additionally, playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a double-digit road loss has produced a 121-73 (62.4%) ATS record the last 19 years, provided both teams carry win percentages of 60-75%. Pound Chicago.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Nets +7

Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are being overvalued here considering their road struggles. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9. The Nets have lost their last 6 but were competitive in all of those until they were dealt a double-digit defeat by Houston last game. However, the Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

Bottom Line: The Red Storm has lost 3 in a row but has had a week off to get right. I expect them to right the ship tonight. The Johnnies were pathetic defensively last game, allowing Villanova to shoot 55.7%. Rest assured the defense will be much better here. St. John's is 10-0 ATS in road games after allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher since 1997, and it has won these games by an average of 6.7 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 for a Wednesday game, playing against teams off 2 consecutive close wins of 5 points or less over conference opponents has resulted in a 22-5 (81.5%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound St. John's.

4* MAJOR CBB BAILOUT (ESPNU) on Boise State -5

Bottom Line: UNLV pounded San Jose State last game, but the Runnin' Rebels are 10-23 ATS off a conference win under Dave Rice, including 4-13 ATS if the win came by 10 points or more. Additionally, 15 games or more into the season in a matchup of teams that commit 14.5 turnovers per game or less, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 75-37 ATS the last 5 seasons if they shoot 45-47.5% and are facing a team that hold opponents to 40% or worse shooting.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8

Bottom Line: The Jazz are being undervalued at home where they have been extremely competitive. They've won or lost by less than 8 points in 7 straight at home. The Warriors haven't played a road game since Christmas so they'll finally be outside their comfort zone. They've lost or won by less than 8 points in each of their last 5 on the road. Pound Utah.

4* MAJOR SEC *SUREFIRE* (ESPNU) on South Carolina -4

Bottom Line: South Carolina has lost back-to-back games since winning 7 straight, and that actually bodes well for us tonight. The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in home games after losing 2 straight games or more over the last 2 seasons. They have won these 6 by 8.3 points on average.

4* MAJOR NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Wizards -1

Bottom Line: The Spurs are off an easy double digit win and cover in Minnesota but are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Washington was kicked by Atlanta last game but is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss. Additionally, the favorite is 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on Tennessee +3.5

Bottom Line: Arkansas has covered the spread in 3 straight. However, it is 0-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games under Mike Anderson and has lost these games by 8.7 points on average. Arkansas does an excellent job of sharing the basketball, but Donnie Tyndall's teams are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games versus good passing teams that average 16.0 assists per game or more. They have won these 7 by an average of 15.3 points. Additionally, Arkansas is 15-30 ATS as a road favorite or pickem since 1997 while Tennessee is 30-8 ATS as a home underdog or pickem since 1997. Pound the Vols.

5* WISEGUY CFB CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Ohio State +7

Bottom Line: I backed Ohio State as a 10-point dog against Alabama and watched the Buckeyes win outright. The reasoning was simple - Urban Meyer is perhaps the best coach in college football. He had his team ready for the Crimson Tide, and I expect him to have them ready for Oregon. Teams headed up by Meyer are 21-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role. His teams are also 12-1 ATS all-time off an upset victory. Pound Ohio State.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Celtics +5

Bottom Line: The Pelicans are off a double-digit win over Memphis while the Celtics are off a double-digit loss to Toronto. However, the Pelicans are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, provided they have a win percentage of 45-55% on the season, has resulted in a 66-33 (67%) ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Also, in a game involving teams with +/- 3.0 ppg differential, playing against a favorite off a double-digit win has resulted in a 132-84 (61%) ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* MAJOR ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Syracuse -9.5

Bottom Line: Florida State has struggled on the road where it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6. It's off a win and cover against Virginia Tech but is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS win. Syracuse is a bad matchup for the Seminoles because they are a poor perimeter shooting team. They are shooting only 27.5% from 3-point range on the season. It takes a zone buster to stretch the Syracuse matchup-zone to open up driving lanes and high-post entries, and the Noles have only one outside threat. That makes it easy on the Orange. It's important to note that 15 games or more into the season FSU is just 2-14 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscoring the opposition by 8.0 PPG or more. In other words, they've struggled in conference play against top-notch competition. Bet the Orange.

5* WISEGUY DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Broncos -7

Bottom Line: Indy is 0-6 ATS in road games played in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75% over the last 3 seasons, and it has lost these games by an average of 24.9 points. Denver is on a 21-10 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a 16-3 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Pound the Broncos.

4* MAJOR NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Cowboys +6

Bottom Line: Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on grass and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games when playing with 6 days of rest or less. The Cowboys are 20-9 ATS as an underdog under coach Garrett, including 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

5* WISEGUY NFC PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR on Seahawks -10.5

Bottom Line: The Seahawks enter the playoffs on a 6-game win streak, which is significant because they are 6-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Carroll.  Seattle is 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more. It is also 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after averaging 6.0 yards per play or more in each of its last 2 games. Pound Seattle.

5* WISEGUY NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Bulls OVER 195

Bottom Line: Milwaukee has finished under the total in 9 straight, which has forced oddsmakers to overadjust the line due to the amount of action the under is getting in Milwaukee games. This provides us with an excellent overs opportunity tonight. Milwaukee's unders run has been directly correlated with how well it has defended, but this will be its 4th game in 5 days and defense is the first thing to go in fatigued spots. The over is 18-6 in the Bulls' last 24 home games, including 5-0 in their last 5 versus teams with a winning road record. The over is 14-4 the last 2 seasons in Milwaukee's games as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. We've seen 210.4 total points scored on average in these contests. Pound the over.

5* WISEGUY Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska-Omaha -1.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska-Omaha is 7-0 ATS lifetime under coach Hansen after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and has won these by an average of 4.4 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 plays against road teams that are off a cover as a double-digit favorite and are playing their 3rd game in 7 days has resulted in a 36-11 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Pound UNO.

4* MAJOR AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Ravens +7

Bottom Line: Baltimore has been money in the postseason. It's 6-0 ATS in its last 6 playoff games and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road playoff games. The road team has been the play in this matchup as it is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England. Additionally, Baltimore is 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

4* MAJOR BIG EAST *BLOOD BATH* on Butler -2

Bottom Line: We picked up a big win with Xavier Wednesday, but now we'll go against the Musketeers as they head back out on the road where they have struggled. The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games while the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 at home. Butler is off a loss and lost both meetings with Xavier last season so it will be highly focused. The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win while the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cavs +12.5

Bottom Line: The Cavs have struggled with LeBron James out nursing injuries, but there is still a ton of talent on the roster, and I expect them to show up against the best team in the NBA with the bright ESPN lights on. Playing against home teams that are outscoring opponents by 9.0 PPG or more on the season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more last game. Pound Cleveland.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Spurs -5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are off an ugly loss at home to Detroit where they blew an 18-point advantage and even led by 3 points with 10 seconds left and couldn't close the deal. All that actually bodes well for us here. San Antonio is 17-6 ATS off an upset loss at home the last 3 seasons and has won these games by 9.8 points on average.

4* MAJOR NBA *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -11.5

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs that beat the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 25-40% on the season. Utah upset Chicago on the road in its last game but is 2-11 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games following a road win.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Nebraska -9.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska has been outstanding in league play in bounce back spots. It is 16-5 ATS off a loss to conference foe over the last 3 seasons, including 9-1 ATS during this span off 2 straight losses to conference opponents.

5* WISEGUY OHIO VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Tech +6.5

Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Murray State, which has won its last 9 games. The Racers are on an 8-19 ATS slide after 9 or more consecutive wins. Murray State put the hurt on Tennessee Tech last season as it was able to control the glass, but this year's Murray State team hasn't been nearly as good on the boards. The Racers are averaging just 33 rebounds per game, and that number drops to 30 in games played away from home. The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, are averaging 38 boards per game. This number goes up to 41 at home where they are 6-0 on the season. Tennessee Tech is 12-1 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams that average 33 or less rebounds per game. Pound Tennessee Tech.

4* MAJOR NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Hornets/Raptors UNDER 199.5

Bottom Line: Toronto was horrible defensively in its last 2 games and will be looking to tighten the screws here. The Raptors have had the last 3 days off to get fresh and prepare for the Hornets, and I expect them to put forth an outstanding defensive effort tonight. Toronto is 19-7 UNDER since 1996 in home games after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games. The UNDER is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings between these teams in Toronto.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +8.5

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Phoenix, which played a hard fought game in Milwaukee last night and has big games against the Spurs and Grizzlies on deck. I don't see the Suns giving the lowly T-Wolves their complete focus. The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Bet Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +2

Bottom Line: This is a big bounce back spot for Illinois following consecutive defeats at Michigan and Ohio State. This is a big letdown spot for Maryland following big wins over Michigan State and Minnesota. Illinois is a perfect 7-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 30.0 points. It has two more Big Ten road games following this one, which makes this game that much more important. Rayvonte Rice is out with a hand injury, but I fully expect this deep, talented group to step up. Pound Illinois.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -7

Bottom Line: This is a big bounce back spot for Xavier following a bad loss at DePaul. It's also a big revenge spot for the Musketeers after getting swept by Seton Hall last season. Additionally, this is a big letdown spot for the Pirates who hit the road off back-to-back big home wins over St. John's and Villanova. Xavier is a perfect 8-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 21 points and has notable double-digit wins over Alabama and Georgetown. Pound Xavier.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* BLOWOUT on Houston -7

Bottom Line: This is not the night to back Central Florida. The Knights are 0-8 ATS on Tuesday night under coach Jones. Houston, on the other hand, is on an 18-6 ATS run in Tuesday night home games. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite or pickem over the last three seasons. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Houston.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on Troy State +3.5

Bottom Line: Texas-Arlington is 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons off a home win of 10 points or more and has lost these games by 7.1 points on average. Troy is 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons and has won these games by an average of 2.0 points. Pound Troy State.

5* WISEGUY NBA "Total" BLOWOUT on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 200

Bottom Line: These teams have come in under 200 points in each of the last 9 meetings so it's clear the books are begging for action on the under. However, they have good reason for posting such a high number as the Washington defense is really struggling (gave up over 52% shooting in each of its last 3 games) and it's up against a New Orleans team that is averaging over 108 ppg at home. Washington is 17-7 OVER the last 2 seasons in road games after finishing under the total in its last game. The OVER iis 10-4 in the Pelicans' last 14 home games and 11-4 in their last 15 versus the East.

4* MAJOR on Charleston -3.5

Bottom Line: James Madison is off a strong performance over Towson where it held the Tigers to just 52 points. However, JM is 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons after holding an opponent to 55 points or less and has lost by an average of 8.4 points in these games.

4* MAJOR on Virginia Military +2.5

Bottom Line: VMI is 3-1 at home while Mercer is 1-5 on the road. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a cover while the Keydets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat.

4* MAJOR on Towson -3

Bottom Line: I'm fading Elon in a spot it hasn't performed well in. The Phoenix are on a 17-28 ATS slide when playing win one or no days of rest.

4* MAJOR on Fairfield +1

Bottom Line: The Broncs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. The Stags are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 versus Metro Atlantic Athletic opponents. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

4* MAJOR on Drexel +5.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road teams that are off a win of 20 points or more in conference play has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against an opponent that's off an upset loss of 10 points or more at home. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR GODADDY BOWL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -3.5

Bottom Line: Arkansas State looked unstoppable on the ground last game when it racked up 469 rushing yards against New Mexico State. It won't be able to run at will against a Toledo defense that ranks 17th in the country against the run with 120.5 ypg allowed. The Red Wolves are on a 0-11 ATS slide following a game where they gained 300 or more rushing yards and have lost by an average of 10.1 points in these games. Bet Toledo.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +4

Bottom Line: The Kings will be hungry as they seek revenge for a home loss to Detroit last month. Playing underdogs that are out for revenge for an upset loss at home has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided the team they are seeking revenge against is off 2 or more consecutive road wins. Bet Sacramento.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys UNDER 49

Bottom Line: When the total is 42.5 to 49 points 8 games or more into the season, playing the UNDER on home teams that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt that are up against a team that allows 5.9-6.7 yards per pass attempt has resulted in a 27-5 record since 1983, provided the team we are playing on has averaged 8 passing yards per attempt or more in its last 2 games. This system is 4-0 the last 3 seasons. The Lions are on a 6-0 UNDER run in road games played on turf and a 7-0 UNDER run in road games versus teams that allow an average of 7 yards per pass attempt or more. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: The Bengals lost 27-0 in Indianapolis in October, but that won't keep me from pounding them given the strong history in their favor. Playing road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 76-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 9 points under coach Lewis. They have won in this spot by an average of 5.8 points. This Cincy team has failed to make it out of the wild card round each of the past 3 seasons, and that provides added motivation. Pound the Bengals.

5* WISEGUY NFL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Ravens +4

Bottom Line: The Ravens are showing some nice value catching better than a field goal. Prior to each team winning impressively in this season's two regular-season meetings, we had seen 5 straight and 9 of 11 matchups in the series decided by 3 points or less. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 wild card games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road playoff games. Pound Baltimore.

4* MAJOR BIG EAST *BLOOD BATH* on Marquette -1.5

Bottom Line: Look for Marquette to bounce back strong against Providence following a tough loss at DePaul. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 7-0 at home versus Providence since they began competing in the Big East Conference. None of these wins have come by fewer than 7 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 playing against road teams that have beaten the spread by 18 or more points total in their last 3 games has resulted in a 19-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons if they are up against a team that has gone under the total by 18 or more total points in their last 3 games. Bet Marquette.

4* MAJOR NON-CONFERENCE *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (CBS) on Florida -9.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Florida, which lost to UConn in last season's Final Four. The Gators are an impressive 114-89 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under coach Donovan, including 39-27 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Florida is on a 65-38 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

5* WISEGUY BIRMINGHAM BOWL *BEST BET* on East Carolina +7

Bottom Line: ECU concluded the regular season with a disappointing 2-point loss to UCF, but it is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons following defeat. The Pirates are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus SEC foes. ECU has an explosive offense that put up huge numbers against several power conference schools. I think 7 points is too many for the books to be giving to this explosive offensive team, especially considering how anemic Florida has been offensively. The Gators left it all out on the field in their last game against in-state rival FSU only to come up short. They managed to cover the spread but are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a cover. The Florida program is in disarray with Muschamp gone and interim D.J. Durkin soon to follow. I think the Florida players just want to forget this season and move on. Pound the Pirates.

4* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +3

Bottom Line: Detroit is being overvalued following 3 straight wins. It is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. The Knicks lost ugly to the Blazers and Clippers in their last 2 but are 26-9 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more since 1996. The Knicks are 8-0 in their last 8 home games versus the Pistons.

5* WISEGUY TAXSLAYER BOWL *BEST BET* on Iowa +3.5

Bottom Line: The Hawkeyes have been an outstanding investment this time of year at 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. I'm not hesitating to take the points as I believe the wrong team is favored. This line has a lot to do with the respect the public gives the SEC, but we have seen in these bowls that the SEC isn't as strong as in years past, and this is a middle of the road team from the weaker division. The Volunteers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus teams with a winning record. Pound Iowa.

4* MAJOR SUGAR BOWL BAILOUT on Ohio State +10

Bottom Line: Urban Meyer is one of the best in the business, and I fully expect him to have his Buckeyes ready to play. His teams are 20-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role and 23-6 ATS all-time when getting 2 weeks of preparation time or more.

4* MAJOR ROSE BOWL *BLOOD BATH* on Oregon -8

Bottom Line: Florida State is undefeated by the skin of its teeth, but it finally meets its match here. Oregon is 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more in its last game under coach Helfrich, 6-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more under Helfrich and 7-0 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 125 yards or more under their current coach. Florida State has been down early numerous times this season but has been able to claw its way back. I don't see it being able to claw its way back against an explosive Oregon team.

5* WISEGUY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota +5

Bottom Line: It's a major letdown for Missouri to be playing an unranked opponent in its bowl game after a disappointing performance against Alabama in the SEC Championship. That game against Alabama mattered way more to the Tigers than this one does. Minnesota, on the other hand, sees this game as a great opportunity, and it has been extremely competitive against good teams in recent seasons, going 10-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record the last 2 seasons, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus such teams. Pound the Gophers.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on DePaul +4.5

Bottom Line: Marquette is 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games following 2 consecutive double-digit wins and has lost these games by an average of 7.0 points. Additionally, DePaul is 14-5 ATS in home games against teams with win percentages of 60-80% under coach Purnell. Pound DePaul.