Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

Bottom Line: Following their worst defensive performance of the series and staring elimination in the face, the Nets will put the clamps on defensively tonight.  The Nets needed to speed up the pace in Game 5 and look for three-point opportunities because these faced a huge deficit.  These two teams combined for 69 points from beyond the arc in the game.  They hadn't combined for more than 42 points from three in any of the other games of the series.  Both prior games played in Brooklyn in the series were played at a very slow pace, and we saw just 166 total points scored in Game 4.  We saw 200 total points scored in Game 3 despite the slow pace, but neither team was getting after it defensively the way they will in this elimination game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Nets' last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 10-1 UNDER after a close win of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen only 187.3 total points scored on average in these 11 games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +1.5

Bottom Line: Home court has been too big to ignore when these teams get together.  The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with the 10 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 home games versus the Clippers, including 6-1 in its last 7.  Combine the 10-2 series home trend and the 16-3 Warriors home trend, and we have a convincing 26-5 trend in our favor.  Additionally, Golden State is 30-15 ATS under coach Mark Jackson after a loss of 10 points or more, including 8-1 ATS in this spot this season with an average winning margin of 15.9 points.  Pound the Warriors.

4* Major GM6 *SUREFIRE* on Thunder -2.5

Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are just 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.  The Thunder are 14-3 ATS the last 3 seasons after a close loss of 3 points or less, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.9 points.  Road favorites that are off a home loss and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 122-75 ATS since 1996.  I expect the Thunder to dig down deep to force a Game 7.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Yankees -144

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-6 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.  The Yankees are 12-4 in Kuroda's last 16 home starts and 11-1 in his last 12 home starts versus a team with a losing record.  Seattle is batting just .209 versus right-handed starters this season while the Yankees are batting .278 against lefty starters.  Kuroda has given up 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 starts against the M's, and I expect him to outduel Seattle's Elias this evening.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 187

Bottom Line: After allowing Atlanta to shoot 50% in Game 5 and with their playoff lives on the line, I expect the Pacers to bring the "D".  The Pacers are 27-10 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.  They are 56-28 UNDER when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more since 1996. The Hawks are 31-10 UNDER in home playoff games since 1996.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Hawks' last 6 home games and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in Atlanta.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Rockets -5

Bottom Line: Despite losing the 1st 2 games of the series at home, Houston is still 19-5 in its last 24 on this floor versus the Blazers.  That's too much history to go against, especially in a game where the Rockets will be playing for their playoff lives.  The Blazers have been a poor investment in the postseason, especially when on the road following a win (they are on a 9-21-2 ATS slide in that spot).  They are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 postseason games overall.  Bet the Rockets.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 214

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 on all teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are taking on an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 40-15 record the last 5 seasons if the opponent is off a home win of 3 points or less.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on road teams that are off a home win of 3 points or less and are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days has resulted in a 25-7 record the last 5 seasons.  Game 4 should have finished under the total as only 212 total points were scored prior to OT.  Even with OT, these teams combined for only 175 shots so the pace slowed considerably since Game 3 when they combined for 195 shots.  Pound the UNDER as I expect the defensive intensity to pick up in this elimination game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers have been dealing with some off-court issues surrounding the team owner.  However, Sunday's 21-point defeat assures us they will be extremely focused and motivated tonight.  The Clippers are an impressive 19-7 ATS following a loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.8 points in these contests.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games directly following a defeat of more than 10 points.  They are also 13-2 ATS on the season following an upset loss and have responded to win by an average of 13.1 points in this spot.  Teams out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more that are off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 38-13 ATS the last 18 seasons.  Pound LA.

4* Major "Total" Dominator on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 184

Bottom Line: These two teams have finished over the total in each of the previous four games of the series, and the UNDER is showing some serious value as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 2 or more consecutive overs that is playing against an opponent that checks in off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 66-31 record the last 5 seasons.  The Bulls are 31-19 UNDER when the total is 180-189.5 this season, including 18-7 at home when this is the case.  An average of 179.5 total points were scored in these 25 home games so I'm not hesitating to take the UNDER here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Total of the Year on Spurs/Mavs UNDER 203

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams (Dallas in this case) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 has resulted in a 76-33 record the last 5 seasons if they have a winning percentage of 51-60% and are playing a team that has a winning record.  If the team you're playing the UNDER on in the previous situation is at home and the total is between 200-209.5, this system tightens up to 35-12.  Additionally, when the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on all teams that have lost 4 of their last 5 games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are a winning team playing another winning team.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (San Antonio) that are out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent that is off a close home win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 43-20 record the last 5 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

4* Major MLB *BLOOD BATH* on Cardinals -153

Bottom Line: The Cards have had Gallardo's number.  He's 1-12 (3-15 on the moneyline) with an ERA of 6.49 in 18 starts against them.  The Brewers are 1-9 in his last 10 starts against St. Louis, and he's posted an 8.17 ERA in these games.  Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last 5 home starts, during which he's compiled a 1.04 ERA.  Wacha will be making his first start against the Brewers, and that gives him the advantage because they won't be familiar with his stuff.  It also hurts Milwaukee that Ryan Braun is expected to miss.

4* Major NBA *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Pacers -6.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers have really tightened the screws defensively, and that bodes extremely well for us as the series shifts back to Indy.  The Pacers are 9-1 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after 2 straight games of holding foes to 39% shooting or worse.  It has won by an average of 16.8 points in this spot.  The Pacers won 101-85 in their last home game in the series despite Atlanta draining 10 3-pointers, and I expect another double-digit win from the top seed in the East.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Bobcats +7.5

Bottom Line: The Heat will be looking to close out Charlotte tonight, but the Bobcats won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to give Miami all it wants and to keep this one within the generous number.  The Heat are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games while the Bobcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

4* Major NBA "Total" BAILOUT on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 215

Bottom Line: If the total line is greater than or equal to 210, Playing the UNDER on all teams, Houston in this case, that have allowed 110 points or more in 3 straight games and are up against an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game has resulted in a 31-11 record the last 5 seasons.  We've seen just 207.7 total points scored on average in this situation.

4* Major ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BLOOD BATH* on Yankees -160

Bottom Line: In AL matchups, playing against road underdogs with a moneyline of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 3.50 or lower has resulted in a 71-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Richards is off to a nice start, but he's 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA versus the Yankees.  He has 24 strikeouts against 14 walks this season while Tanaka has 35 strikeouts against only 2 walks.  Tanaka has been the more dominant starter, and he poses all kinds of problems for an Angels lineup that hasn't seen him yet.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 192

Bottom Line: I'm pounding the UNDER here as these teams fit into an extremely profitable postseason totals system.  When the total is between 190 and 199.5, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 4th game of a 1st round NBA playoff series has resulted in a 44-14 record since 1996.  We have seen only 185.9 total points scored on average in these games.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: Look for Golden State to even the series this afternoon.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage of 60-70% the last 2 seasons, and they have defeated these teams by 9.5 points on average.  Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3, home teams off a home loss in a game involving teams with win percentages of 60-70% are 46-19 ATS since 1996.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Golden State.

4* Major "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 183.5

Bottom Line: The first 3 games of this series have easily gone over but that changes here.  This game means a lot for both teams and the defensive intensity will kick up a notch as a result.  Playing the UNDER on any team, Chicago in this case, after 2 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent that is off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 42-15 record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -3

Bottom Line: I'll back the Thunder in this highly motivated spot.  After losing 2 straight to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Thunder will be out for blood tonight.  Since coach Brooks took over, OKC is 54-32 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 47-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses, 50-32 ATS when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent and 53-33 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mets -140

Bottom Line: The Marlins are a dismal 27-73 in their last 100 road games, including 1-9 this season.  I expect their road woes to continue against a Mets club that is 5-1 in its last 6 at home and 15-6 in its last 21 at home versus the Marlins.  Mejia has been lights out with a 1.99 ERA that shrinks to 0.71 at home.  The Mets are 4-0 in his starts this season and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts.  The Marlins are 1-6 in Slowey's last 7 starts as an underdog.  Pound the Mets.

5* Wiseguy Saturday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -3.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs will come storming back following a poor performance in Game 2.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS this season in road games following an upset loss.  They have won these games by 12.0 points on average.  The Spurs are also 7-0 ATS this season in road games versus teams with a win percentage of 51% to 60%.  They have won these games by an average of 13.2 points.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points,  0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 in Dallas, winning these by an average of 12.3 points.  And, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Pound San Antonio.

4* Major GM4 *SUREFIRE* on Pacers -2

Bottom Line: The Pacers responded following a loss in Game 1, and I expect a similar response this afternoon.  The Hawks are just 15-30 ATS in home games following 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 7-18 ATS in home games off a home win the last 2 seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off 1 or more consecutive losses the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS off a road loss the last 2 seasons.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Rockets +3

Bottom Line: Houston won't go quietly into the night.  It has won or lost by fewer than 3 points in 6 of its last 7 visits to Portland, and I expect this trend to continue.  The Rockets are 5-1-1 ATS in these 7 visits, and the road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Additionally, Portland is 0-8 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog under coach Terry Stotts.  It has lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Game of the Month on White Sox +1.5 -129

Bottom Line: Tampa Bay is averaging only 1.7 runs per game while batting .186 in 8 road games this season.  It has lost 5 of these with each of the wins coming by a single run so we have a perfect 8-0 trend in our favor according to the +1.5 line.  The White Sox have won 6 of 10 at home while batting .262 and averaging 5.4 runs.  One of these defeats came by a single run so they are 7-3 at home this season according to the +1.5 line.  Pound the White Sox on the run line.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls +3

Bottom Line: The Bulls have the heart of a champion, and they aren't about to fold down 0-2.  Chicago is a reliable 25-16 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss.  It is also an impressive 117-81 ATS in road games when playing with double revenge since 1996.  Furthermore, the Bulls are 37-22 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less under Tom Thibodeau.  Washington is on an 11-25 ATS slide off 2 or more consecutive road wins.  Teams headed up by Randy Witman are just 46-72 ATS as a home favorite, including 27-51 ATS as a home fave of 6.0 points or more.  His teams are also just 5-16 ATS in home games following a close win of 3 points or less.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +2

Bottom Line: The home team has dominated this matchup going 10-3 in the last 13.  The Clippers suffered each of the 3 home losses during this streak.  The Warriors are 5-0 at home during this streak with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Golden State was brutally embarrassed in Game 2 and will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder tonight as a result.  The Warriors are 29-15 ATS after a loss of more than 10 points under coach Jackson, including 12-2 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss of more than 10 points.  Pound Golden State.

4* Major NBA "Total" DOMINATOR Clippers/Warriors UNDER 215

Bottom Line: First off, playing the UNDER on any team off 2 or more consecutive overs that is matched up against an opponent off 5 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 40-14 (74%) record the last 3 seasons.  Secondly, playing the UNDER on all teams in the 3rd game of a 1st round playoff series has resulted in a 40-12 (77%) record since 1996, provided the total is 200.0 or higher.  Lastly, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a victory of 15 points or more and are going against a team off a defeat of 15 points or more has resulted in a 34-10 (77%) record the last 5 seasons, provided the total is 200.0 or higher.  With Golden State looking to bounce back from a terrible Game 2 and L.A. looking to regain home-court, I expect the screws to tighten defensively in Game 3.  This one stays UNDER as a result.

4* Major NBA "Total" LINE MISTAKE on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 189

Bottom Line: OKC doesn't get enough credit for what it is capable of doing defensively.  The Thunder rank No. 3 in field goal percentage defense, and I expect to see a strong defensive effort from them tonight after allowing Memphis to shoot nearly 50% in Game 2.  The Thunder are 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 games following a loss, 9-3 UNDER in their last 12 games after giving up 100 points or more, 6-2 UNDER in their last 8 1st round playoff games and 29-10 UNDER in their last 39 games on 2 days' rest.  The Grizzlies will look to slow down the pace, knowing its chances of winning suffer greatly when they let OKC get out in transition.  With OKC turning up the heat defensively and Memphis looking to play in the half court, we have ourselves a solid UNDERS situation.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -166

Bottom Line: The Padres are 4-12 in Stults' last 16 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  The Nationals are 11-2 in Zimmermann's last 13 home starts versus a team with a losing record and 15-3 in his last 18 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Padres are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings, including 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.  Pound the Nats.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Month on Dodgers -155

Bottom Line: After dropping the first 2 games of the series, I love LA's chances tonight.  The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series and 6-0 in Greinke's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Dodgers are 12-1 in Greinke's last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  Greinke's clubs are 40-10 lifetime in his starts as home favorites of -150 or more.  The Phillies are 13-29 in their last 42 road games, 9-24 in their last 33 games as a road underdog and 3-8 in Hamels' last 11 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  This is Hamels' first start in the majors since Sept. 25, and I expect to see some rust.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* Bailout on Rockets -6

Bottom Line: Look for the Rockets to come storming back in Game 2.  A lot went right for Portland to win Game 1 (Harden shot 8 for 28 while Aldridge shot 17 for 31), but it still needed OT to get the job done.  Despite the loss, Houston is laying as much as 1-point more (depending on the book) than it did in Game 1.  This tells me oddsmakers expect to see a much different Houston squad here.  Aldridge won't play as well as he did in Game 1, and Harden won't shoot as badly.  I'm very confident the Rockets won't shoot as poorly collectively (only 41% in Game 1) because the Blazers allow 45% shooting on the season.  Houston has quietly had a good season defensively, especially at home where it is allowing just 42.9% shooting.  In the second half of the season, playing against underdogs that are off 2 or more consecutive overs in a game involving two teams that allow 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1996.  Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average and have lost by an average of 10.3.  Pound Houston.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference 1st Round Game of the Year on Bulls -5

Bottom Line: The defense wasn't there for Chicago in Game 1 as it allowed the Wizards to score 102 points on 48.6% shooting.  Recent history tells us the defense will be there for the Bulls tonight.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after giving up 100 points or more in its previous game.  The last 7 of these covers were also straight up wins by an average of 12.9 points.  Pound the Bulls as they tighten the screws defensively and bounce back strong.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Royals -101

Bottom Line: The Royals have the advantage with Shields on the mound.  He has a 2.00 ERA and a 0.963 WHIP through 4 starts.  His ERA is down to 1.31 over his last 3 starts.  Cleveland's Salazar has an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.927 through 3 starts.  The Royals are 12-3 in Shields' last 15 road starts, 7-1 in Shields' last 8 road starts versus a team with a losing record.  His clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Indians.  Shields' teams are 7-0 in his road starts the last 3 seasons versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game.  The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. 

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -7.5

Bottom Line: Playing favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1996 if they have combined with their opponents to score 205 points or more in 4 straight games and are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  If the contest takes place 42 games or later into the season, this system explodes to 35-10 ATS.  Since Doc Rivers came to town the Clippers are an impressive 18-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation.  They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivers when out for revenge for an upset defeat and have won in this situation by an average of 11.3 points.  Pound the Clippers.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Rockies -123

Bottom Line: I'll back the Rockies at home with De La Rosa getting the ball.  The Giants are batting only .194 against left-handed starters this season, and they are 1-7 lifetime versus De La Rosa at Coors Field.  The Rockies are 45-15 in De La Rosa's last 60 home starts, 42-11 in his last 53 starts as a favorite, 17-4 in his last 21 home starts versus a team with a winning record, 15-3 in his last 18 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. 

4* Major NBA *BLOOD BATH* on Grizzlies +7

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the Grizz in this bounce-back situation.  OKC couldn't have gotten off to a better start in Game 1, and Memphis couldn't have gotten off to a worse start.  Despite trailing by 25 points just before the half, Memphis cut the deficit to four points and won the 2nd half by 8 points.  That does a ton for its confidence heading into this one.   I expect to see the defensive effort we saw from Memphis in the 3rd quarter from the jump tonight.  The Grizzlies are on a 41-23 ATS run in road games when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent that scored 100 points or more both times.  The Thunder are 9-21 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus teams with a win percentage of 60-70%.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 8 of their last 11 meetings. 

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers +5.5

Bottom Line: Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing 4 games or less in 10 days and are off at least 2 consecutive home wins are 53-28 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Portland has quietly been a terrific road investment all season, going 25-16 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in its last 4.  The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but Portland took them to OT in Houston the last time these two met.  The Blazers are 20-9 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more.  The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record, and the underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Pound Portland, which enters the playoffs in better form.

4* Major Sunday Night Baseball Bailout on Red Sox -152

Bottom Line: I'm fading Ubaldo Jimenez who is 0-3 with a 7.31 ERA to start the season.  He's also 1-4 with an ERA of 9.21 in 6 starts versus Boston.  He's 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus Boston and 0-2 in 2 starts at Fenway.  Though he hasn't received much run support, Jake Peavy has been great early with a 1.93 ERA.  Additionally, he's 2-0 with an ERA of 3.15 in 3 starts versus Baltimore.  The Red Sox are 60-28 in their last 88 games as a favorite, 42-18 in their last 60 games as a home favorite and 20-7 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Orioles are 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. 

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Thunder -7

Bottom Line: I expect to see a very hungry OKC squad tonight.  Memphis sent the Thunder home early in last year's playoffs and that series loss will be all the fuel the Thunder need.  The Grizzlies didn't have to deal with Westbrook in last year's series, but they will tonight, and they weren't able to handle him defensively while losing the 2 games he played against them this season.  The Grizz don't do a very good job of getting to the charity, and that's an issue because OKC does.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS this season versus teams like Memphis that attempt 21 or fewer free throws per game.  They have defeated such teams by an average of 12.2 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -7.5

Bottom Line: Defense wins in the NBA Playoffs, and Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA.  It has allowed just 88 ppg at home this season while the Hawks have allowed 104.4 ppg on the road.  The Pacers held the Hawks to 90.3 points while averaging 108.7 in 3 home wins in last season's playoff series.  Indiana might have entered the playoffs overconfident, but it struggled down the stretch of the regular season and lost badly on this floor to the Hawks just under 2 weeks ago.  The Pacers will be highly motivation to crush the Hawks and any upset aspirations in Game 1 as a result.  The favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.  Pound the Pacers.

4* Major NBA *SUREFIRE* on Clippers -7

Bottom Line: The Clippers were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round last year after winning the first 2 games of their series with Memphis.  The harsh memory of that crushing series loss is all the motivation they'll need when they hit the floor this afternoon.  Home court has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average margin of victory of 14.1 points.  The Clippers home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 16.7 points.  In games played 42 games or more into the season, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more and have combined with their opponents for 205 points or more in their last 4 games are 35-9 ATS since 1996 if they are matched up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  Teams fitting this scenario have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have won by 12.5.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -144

Bottom Line: The Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games and 3-18 in their last 21 home games against the Reds, including 0-4 in their last 4.  They are 1-12 in Edwin Jackson's last 13 starts, including 0-6 in his last 6.  The Cubs are also 0-8 in Jackson's last 8 starts following a loss in their previous game.  Cincy's Tony Cingrani has quietly been one of the best hurlers in the bigs since making his first start last season.  He has allowed 5 hits or fewer in each of his 21 career starts.  Jackson has allowed at least 8 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts.  He's allowed 6 hits or more in 12 of his last 14 starts.  Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Rockies -144

Bottom Line: The Rockies ended their road trip by taking 2 of 3 in San Diego to head home with some nice momentum.  Coors Field has treated them well so far.  They have won 4 of 6 there while averaging 7.5 runs and batting .354.  Pettibone was crushed at Coors last season in his lone start against the Rockies.  Chatwood got the win that day, tossing a gem.  The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts in the opening game of a series.  The Phillies are 18-39 in their last 57 road games and 1-5 in Pettibone's last 6 road starts.  Playing against road dogs priced between +125 and +175 has resulted in a 107-37 record since 1997 if they are off a victory of 2 runs or less and are taking on a team that has scored 4 runs or less in 5 consecutive games.  Pound the Rockies.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -165

Bottom Line: The Rays have won each of Price's first 3 starts while he's posted a 2.91 ERA.  They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. He's outdueled Sabathia time and time again, and the Rays are 8-1 lifetime when Price faces Sabathia as a result, including 3-0 the last 3 times.  Sabathia is struggling (6.63 ERA), and the Yankees are just 1-7 in his last 8 starts versus the Rays and 0-8 in his last 8 road starts versus the Rays.  Pound Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Month on Angels -113

Bottom Line: We missed with the Angels yesterday as they blew a 6-3 lead and lost in 11 innings, but I’m not hesitating to come back with them tonight.  Playing against AL road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 has resulted in a 114-59 record the last 5 seasons if they average 4.7 runs per game or less and allowed 8 runs or more last game.  I don’t trust Milone here as he’s allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Angels.  Oakland isn’t familiar with Skaggs, who is 2-0 on the moneyline with an ERA of 2.40 this season.  Pound the Angels.

4* Major NBA “Total” Dominator on Nuggets/Clippers OVER 219

Bottom Line: Playing the OVER when the total is 210 or higher on teams that are off a blowout win of 15 points or more has resulted in a 32-19 record the last 5 seasons if they are up against a team that has scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games.  The Clippers do an excellent job of getting to the foul line and make their free throws at a nice clip (72.9%).  This is important to note because Denver is 15-3 OVER the last 2 seasons versus team that attempt 27 free throws per game or more.  We’ve seen 225.6 total points scored on average in these games.  Both teams are well rested, and the Clippers are especially well rested because they’ve been at home since April 3.  This is also important because the Clippers are 8-0 OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen an average of 223 total points scored in these games.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Angels -110

Bottom Line: Angels are crushing right-handed starters this season, scoring 6.9 runs per game off them with a .343 on-base percentage. They should have little trouble getting to Straily, who is just 1-3 with an ERA of 5.82 in 6 starts against them.  He’s 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Halos, and the A’s have been outscored 13-4 in these games.  Richards is ready to break through against the A’s. He had 2 great outings and 2 bad outings against them last season.   He’s 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA this season and should have success against an Oakland lineup that’s scoring just 4.3 runs per game against righty starters.  The A’s are 2-7 in Straily’s last 9 starts as an underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts in the 2^nd game of a series.  The Angels are 10-3 in Richard’s last 13 home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: I expect the Suns to stay in the playoff hunt with a win over the Grizzlies tonight. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 65-32 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a winning team. This system is a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. The Suns are 7-1 ATS this season as a favorite of 2.5 points or less, including 3-0 ATS in the role at home. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Pound the Suns.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -121
Bottom Line: The Reds got a big confidence boost with yesterday's 12-4 win over the Rays, and I expect them to keep right on rolling. Wandy Rodriguez has an ERA of 4.21 in 30 starts against the Reds, and the Pirates are 0-4 in his last 4 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the Reds. Homer Bailey has a 2.91 ERA in 16 starts against the Pirates, who are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy Interleague *BEST BET* on Reds -138
Bottom Line: Reds have big edge on the mound with Cingrani, who hasn't allowed more than 5 hits in any of his first 20 big-league starts and has allowed more than 3 runs just once in his career. The Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record. The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games versus a left-handed starter. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -1
Bottom Line: I'll lay this small number with a motivated Indiana squad that is 34-6 at home. The Pacers are still in the running for home court in the East while the Thunder have already secured the two-seed in the West and can't catch San Antonio. Additionally, OKC pounded the Pacers back in December so this game will be about payback. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are also 8-20 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons against teams with a win percentage of 60-70%. Indiana is 22-11 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses. The Pacers have won by an average of 10.3 points in this spot. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Tigers -135
Bottom Line: Verlander is 21-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 28 interleague outings and has won 10 consecutive decisions against the NL while posting a 1.72 ERA. Kennedy has gone 3-8 with a 5.84 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. The Tigers are 53-24 in their last 77 interleague games versus a team with a losing record, 20-6 in Verlander's last 26 interleague starts and 30-12 in his last 42 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Padres are 24-49 in their last 73 interleague games as an underdog and 5-17 in their last 22 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record. Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Cavs -8
Bottom Line: Cleveland will be out to wash the sour taste of last night's loss in Milwaukee out of its mouth. It will also be out to make sure it doesn't get swept by Boston. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off an upset loss and playing a 3rd game in 4 days are 67-40 ATS the last 5 seasons. Boston has been awful on the road where it is 8-31 on the season and has lost 13 straight. It's even 12-24 ATS in road games against teams with losing records over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +4.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for the Bobcats, who are coming off a very satisfying overtime win against Washington that moved them into a tie with the Wizards for 6th in the East and gave them the tiebreaker over the Wizards. Even though Boston won the last meeting between these teams, that was clear back in November, and this fatigued Bobcats squad will be looking to coast tonight. Charlotte has seen 4 of its last 7 games go to overtime, including its last 2. Boston isn't rolling over. It blew a 9-point lead with 5:44 remaining in Wednesday's 105-97 defeat to Atlanta and was outscored 30-16 over the last 12 minutes in its previous defeat, 115-111 to Detroit on Saturday. Those losses are not sitting well, and the Celtics will be motivated not to lose a 10th straight. I believe Rondo will be the key as he has given Kemba Walker fits in 4 previous head-to-head meetings. The Celtics won all 4. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 are 68-37 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team that has covered 6 or 7 of their last 8. This system is 26-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Orioles -140
Bottom Line: Tillman has already outdueled Boston's Lester and Detroit's Verlander, and I expect him to outduel McGowan as well. The Blue Jays are 10-25 in McGowan's last 35 starts as an underdog, 8-22 in his last 30 road starts and 5-18 in his last 23 starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 11-4 in Tillman's last 15 starts as a favorite, 10-3 in his last 13 home starts, 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite, 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 12-3 in his last 15 series opening starts. The Blue Jays are 5-13 in the last 18 meetings in Baltimore. Pound the Orioles.

5* Wiseguy *BEST BET* Bailout on Warriors -10.5
Bottom Line: Denver spent itself in last night's win over Houston, and it won't have enough left in the tank to keep the score respectable versus a Golden State team that has had the last 3 days off. The Warriors also have a big motivational edge as they were defeated 123-116 at home the last time they faced Denver. They'll be out to avenge that loss as well as take a big step toward locking up the No. 6 seed. The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Golden State. Pound the Warriors.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Spurs +2
Bottom Line: Likely no Parker or Ginobli tonight, but I don't believe it will matter. The Spurs are much more than the Big 3 these days, and they'll be hungry following a bad showing in Minnesota. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Mavs handed Utah a 12-point defeat last time out, but they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. They are also 3-11 ATS in their last 14 versus the Spurs, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home meetings in the series. Playing against home teams that are playing with double revenge has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against a team that is off an upset loss on the road.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Phillies -117
Bottom Line: I'll back the Phillies at an affordable price behind the southpaw Lee as the Brew Crew is batting just .224 against left-handed starters this season. Going back to last season, Lee has given up 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. He's also limited the Brewers to 3 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Estrada has been hit hard in both of his starts against Philly and has a 9.00 ERA to show for it. Playing against NL clubs like Milwaukee that have a team batting average of .280 or higher and are off a win of 4 runs or more has resulted in a 39-17 record the last 5 seasons.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -158
Bottom Line: New York has the edge on the mound with Tanaka, who looks like the real deal. He struck out 8 and walked none in his first big league start. Gonzalez's first start wasn't nearly as sharp as he gave up 7 earned in 3 1/3 innings. The Orioles are 0-4 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as an underdog and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog. The Orioles are 0-3 in Gonzalez's last 3 starts versus the Yankees and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus the Yankees. Pound New York.

4* Major NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Magic +5.5
Bottom Line: The Magic have an excellent chance to knock off a Nets squad that is in a letdown situation following last night's big win over the Heat. Orlando has a better home record that Brooklyn has on the road, and the Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are also 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, winning these games by an average of 4.8 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards -5
Bottom Line: The Wizards blew a 16-point halftime lead in their recent 100-94 loss at Charlotte, and they'll be out for some serious revenge as a result. The Wizards are 48-26 ATS under coach Wittman when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, including 19-5 ATS in this situation this season. Pound the Wizards as they have their revenge in impressive fashion.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -137
Bottom Line: I'll get behind the Cards at home with Lynn on the rubber. The Redbirds are 11-1 in his starts the last 2 seasons versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. They are 15-1 in his starts the last 3 seasons versus NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs per game on the season. The Cardinals are 6-1 in Lynn's 7 starts against the Reds, including 2-0 in the home starts. The Reds are 5-13 in Bailey's 18 starts versus the Cardinals, including 1-7 in the road starts. Pound St. Louis.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Heat -7
Bottom Line: Miami has lost all 3 prior meetings with the Nets this season and will be out for blood tonight as a result. Home teams that are out for revenge for at least 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent are 18-4 ATS the last 3 seasons if they are also off a home win. Additionally, the Nets haven't been the same team on the road where they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7
Bottom Line: In a game taking place at least 42 games into the season, playing against home favorites that led their previous game by 20 points or more at the half has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record since 1996 if the game involves teams that average 98-102 ppg. Additionally, road teams that give up 103 ppg or more and trailed by 10 points or more at the half in their last 2 games are 86-34 ATS since 1996. This system is a perfect 11-0 ATS this season. The Hawks are being overvalued following their big win in Indiana. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy Championship *BEST BET* on Connecticut +3
Bottom Line: Connecticut continues to be disrespected by oddsmakers despite 4 consecutive outright wins as an underdog. The Huskies have been doing it with defense, holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 39.1% shooting or worse. Kentucky hasn't shown the same commitment to the defensive end as it has allowed 49.4% shooting over its last 4 games. I'll gladly take the better defensive team catching points, especially since that team has the best player on the floor in Napier. The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games, including 5-0 ATS this season. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 16-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Huskies.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -144
Bottom Line: The Cardinals finally get their home opener this afternoon, and home has been mighty good to them. They are 38-14 in their last 52 home games and 7-1 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. It's been a slow start for St. Louis offensively as it has an on-base percentage of just .265, but that should change with the venue. And, the Cards are 17-1 in home games the last 3 seasons when they have an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games. They have broken out to win by an average of 4.2 runs in this spot. Cingrani won a duel when these 2 pitchers battled last Wednesday, but I like Wacha to come out on top at home where he is 3-0 in his last 3 and hasn't given up a single run. The Reds are just 17-37 in the last 54 meetings in St. Louis. Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is being overvalued in this one because it has won its last 4 on the road. Its last 2 wins over the Kings have come by just 4 and 3 points. The Kings will be looking to avoid the season sweep as well as save face following an embarrassing 102-69 loss at Golden State. The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Kings are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -148
Bottom Line: Favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that had a very good bullpen last season (ERA of 3.33 or better) and a starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 44-12 since 1997. Additionally, Oakland is 21-5 since the start of last season in home games when it checks in with losses in 2 of its last 3. The Mariners are 0-6 in Ramirez's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-3 in his starts against the A's. The A's are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts when he works on 5 days of rest. Pound Oakland.

4* Major Final Four *SUREFIRE* on Kentucky -1
Bottom Line: Kentucky has the more talented team, and John Calipari is pushing all the right buttons as he so often does in the NCAA Tournament. Final Four appearances are nothing new to coach Cal, but this is the first for Bo Ryan. The Wildcats are less experienced in terms of years played at the collegiate level, but they have plenty experience on the bench with a coach that has shown, recently, that he can win it all with a bunch of freshman. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus Big Ten foes. Coach Cal is 14-4 ATS in the Big Dance at Kentucky, including 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. His teams are 9-0 ATS since 1997 after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less, winning these games by an average of 10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -125
Bottom Line: Arizona is now 1-6 after getting hammered Friday, and I don't see it bouncing back against De La Rosa. The Rockies are 7-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 starts, 41-11 in his last 52 starts as a favorite and 9-0 in his last 9 home starts versus the D-backs. The D-backs are 1-5 in McCarthy's last 6 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. He has an ERA of 6.00 in 3 career starts against the Rockies (all last season) while De La Rosa has an ERA of 2.53 in 16 career starts in the series. Pound the Rocks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Cavs -3
Bottom Line: We rode the following system I'm about to unveil to a big win on the Rockets last night, and I'm going to ride it again here. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 69-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt, and I expect maximum effort from it tonight after a humiliating performance in Atlanta last night. Additionally, they will be out to make sure they aren't swept by Charlotte. Cleveland has won 14 of its last 16 at home against the Bobcats. Pound the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -6
Bottom Line: UConn handed Florida one of its 2 losses this season, but that game was played at UConn and a closer look at the numbers shows that the Huskies shouldn't have come out on top. I fully expect the Gators to have their revenge in this neutral floor battle. UConn needed a 17-foot jumper from Shabazz Napier as time expired to beat Florida despite shooting 45.8% (11 of 24) from 3-point range and holding a plus-24 advantage from 3. That's because Florida outshot the Huskies 49% to 43.4% for the game and outrebounded them 34-26. If Florida can do a better job of defending the 3-point line, it should walk away with a comfortable win, and I'm confident it will. Florida has won 30 straight since losing to UConn, and it has won 9 of its last 10 by 7 points or more, including each of its 4 NCAA tourney games by double digits. Pound Florida.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Rockets -2.5
Bottom Line: Not only have the Rockets lost their last 3 games, they've lost all 3 meetings with the Thunder this season. They'll be out for blood here as a result. When the line is +3 to -3, home teams playing with triple revenge are 68-35 ATS since 1996 when they are matched up against a team off two consecutive covers as a favorite. This system is 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, Houston is 18-3 ATS under coach McHale in home games after failing to cover in 4 or 5 of their last 6. The Rockets have won by an average of 15.0 points in this spot. Pound Houston.

4* Major NBA Oddsmaker Error on Bucks +11.5
Bottom Line: Playing against Friday favorites of 10 points or more that have won 3 consecutive games or more has resulted in a 36-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing on Friday double-digit underdogs off a double-digit loss on the road has resulted in a 40-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Chicago is a soft 8-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -117
Bottom Line: I'll get behind Pittsburgh considering it has never lost to Shelby Miller. The Pirates are 4-0 against Miller, outscoring the Cards 24-1 in these games while Miller has posted a 5.32 ERA. The Pirates are 4-0 in Cole's last 4 starts as a favorite, 6-0 in his last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Pound Pittsburgh.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *BEST BET* Bailout on Mavs +4.5
Bottom Line: Not only will Dallas be motivated by losses in each of the season's first 3 battles, but it will also be motivated by a loss to Golden State last game as well as the tight playoff race it finds itself in. The Mavs should have more legs having had yesterday off. LA used a lot of energy in last night's late comeback in Phoenix. Dallas is 27-13 ATS under coach Carlisle in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%). Pound Dallas.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Yankees -138
Bottom Line: The Yankees are 42-19 in their last 61 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and the Astros are 18-58 in their last 76 during game 3 of a series. The Yankees are 39-15 in Nova's starts as a favorite of -110 or higher, including 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Astros are 0-4 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts, one of which was a loss to the Yankees. Pound NY.

4* Major NBA on TNT *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record since 1996 if they enter off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The Spurs are the hottest team in the league, but OKC has been their kryptonite. The Thunder are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings overall and 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 home meetings. OKC has been off since Sunday while the Spurs are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back and a 5th game in 7 days.

5* Wiseguy CIT *BEST BET* on Murray State -7.5
Bottom Line: Terrible spot for Yale playing a 2nd road game in 3 days and a 4th straight game on the road overall versus a team that has been at home for the entire CIT. To make matters worse, Yale is expected to be without leading scorer and rebounder Justin Sears, who injured his wrist against VMI. Murray State is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite or pickem this season, 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season and 6-0 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Racers are also 7-0 ATS this season in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 turnovers or fewer per game. Pound Murray State.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Week on Suns -2.5
Bottom Line: Phoenix needs this game more than LA, and it will be out for blood following Sunday's humiliating loss to the Lakers. Explosive offensive teams like Phoenix that average 103.0 ppg or more are 147-79 ATS since 1996 if they trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Suns are a trustworthy 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Clippers. Pound the Suns.

4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +2.5
Bottom Line: Playing on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are out for revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponent has resulted in a 76-39 ATS record since 1996 if the opponent checks in off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a cover and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points.

5* Wiseguy MLB Game of the Week on Nationals -131
Bottom Line: The Nationals are an impressive 41-14 in their last 55 games as a road favorite and 12-0 in Gonzalez's last 12 starts as a road favorite of -125 or more. They are 6-0 in their last 6 games versus the Mets, 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts versus the Mets and 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 road starts versus the Mets. THe Mets are 14-48 in their last 62 games as a home underdog and 3-12 in their last 15 games versus a left-handed starter. Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy CBI Game of the Year on Fresno State +1.5
Bottom Line: Fresno State lost the first game of the series despite shooting 47.8% and holding Siena to 33.3% because it didn't take care of the basketball or the glass. I fully expect the Bulldogs to sew up these things and come out on top tonight. They are 10-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, 11-4 ATS in road games this season, 20-8 ATS as a road underdog or pickem over the last 2 seasons and 11-3 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. Pound Fresno State.

5* Wiseguy NIT Game of the Year on FSU -1
Bottom Line: I expect FSU to advance to the NIT championship by avenging an earlier loss at Minnesota. The Seminoles are on a 45-32 ATS run when out for revenge for a road loss, and the Golden Gophers haven't been the same team when stepping away from their home court. They've dropped 8 of their last 10 on foreign courts while FSU has won 4 of its last 5. The Seminoles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games while the Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Pound the Noles.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/Mavs OVER 204
Bottom Line: The fact Dallas has lost the last 2 meetings bodes extremely well for us. The Mavs are 7-0 "Over" this season in home games when playing with double revenge. We have seen an average of 219.2 total points scored in these contests.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Rockets/Nets UNDER 210
Bottom Line: This line opened at 208 but has been bet up to 210 in some places creating even more value. Because of where the line opened the following system applies. Playing the "Under" on home teams when the total is 200-209.5 has resulted in a 50-16 record the last 5 seasons, provided they have gone over the total by 48 or more points in their last ten games and have won between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. We have seen just 198.3 total points scored on average in this situation. Pound the UNDER.

4* Major Interleague *BLOOD BATH* on Rangers -136
Bottom Line: The Phillies took Game 1 but are just 16-36 in their last 52 road games, 11-30 in their last 41 games as an underdog, 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog and 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games as an underdog. The Rangers are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on D-backs +114
Bottom Line: Already 0-2, the Snakes will bring added focus to their home opener. The Giants have been a bad play in series openers at 11-25 in their last 36. They are 2-7 in Bumgarner's last 9 starts as a favorite and 1-6 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in McCarthy's last 7 starts versus the National League West. Nice price to back the D-backs.

4* Major NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: It will be very difficult for Memphis to cover this number. The Grizzlies are playing their 2nd road game in as many days, and 3rd in 4 days, and to make matters worse are playing in altitude where fatigue sets in faster. The Nuggets have had the last 2 days off so they carry a sizable advantage in terms of fresh legs. Underdogs that average 103.0 ppg or more are 62-30 ATS since 1996 is they trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +2.5
Bottom Line: Minnesota has lost 8 straight to the Clippers but has been very close to ending the skid this season. The T-Wolves haven't lost by more than 4 points in any of the season's 3 meetings with one of the losses coming by 2 points and the other coming in OT. With this in mind, I think we are getting a good number, especially since Blake Griffin is doubtful. The T-Wolves fell by double digits in Brooklyn yesterday but are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound Minnesota.

4* Major NBA *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Pacers +4.5
Bottom Line: Home underdogs off an upset loss are 46-19 ATS since 1996 if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a winning team. This system is 10-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 of more of their last 15 games are 77-36 ATS if they are playing a team that has covered the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6. This system is 8-1 ATS this season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +7.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are still fighting for a playoff spot, and I expect them to rebound following Friday's ugly loss to Phoenix. The Warriors are banged up. Their biggest concern is getting to the postseason as healthy as possible. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Pound the Knicks.

4* Major MLB *SUREFIRE* on Padres +102
Bottom Line: I expect Cashner to break through against the Dodgers. He's been too good against them not to with an ERA of 0.82 in 3 starts with 16 Ks against just 4 walks. The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 game 1s of a series, 8-3 in Cashner's last 11 starts game 1s of a series, 10-4 in their last 14 home games and 7-3 in their last 10 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Michigan +2.5
Bottom Line: Experience is huge this time of year, and Michigan has a decisive edge in terms of experience after making a run to the championship game last season. As you might recall, Kentucky lost the first game of the NIT last season. John Beilein is one of the most underrated coaches in all of basketball. Since 1997, his teams are 18-4 ATS in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky has the edge inside, but so has many of the teams Michigan has played and the Wolverines keep right on winning. That's because Nik Stauskas and Caris LeVert are legit. The Wolverines are great at spreading teams out and penetrating to create open three-point shots, and they shoot over 40% from beyond the arc. They've been destroying teams from deep all season, and I expect no different in this one. Michigan is 7-0 ATS under Beilein after 5 straight games with 31 or less rebounds and it has won these games by an average of 5.9 points. So clearly it has found ways to make up for its shortcoming on the glass. Pound the Wolverines.

4* Major Elite 8 *SUREFIRE* on Michigan State -5.5
Bottom Line: Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in their last two games as it was tested by Harvard and Virginia. But, recent history suggests now's the time to hop on Sparty. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS after failing to cover in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, and they have won by an average of 14.1 points in this spot. Ultimately, I expect Michigan State's defense to be the difference in this one. The Spartans outdefended Virginia, and that's hard to do. They held the Cavs to 59 points on 35.1% shooting. MSU is 8-2 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game.

5* Wiseguy Elite 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -2.5
Bottom Line: Wisconsin was my Sweet 16 Game of the Year, and it came through against Baylor behind a strong defensive effort. In my report for that game, I highlighted that the best defensive teams tend to make the best investments at this stage of the tournament. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, it isn't the best defensive team in this matchup. While Wisconsin's 63.8 points allowed per game is impressive, it falls considerably short of the 58.4 points per game Arizona allows. Plus, the Wildcats are the more athletic team and will have more fan support with this one being played in Anaheim. Arizona has outdefended good defensive teams since Sean Miller took over. In games played 15 games or more into the season, the Wildcats are 15-5 ATS under Miller in road/neutral court games against good defensive teams that allow 64 ppg or less. They have won these contests by an average of 8.7 points while holding the opposition to 61.6. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus Big Ten opponents. Pound Arizona.

4* Major Eastern Conference *SUREFIRE* on Hawks +5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Washington following last night's big win over Indiana. Plus, an Atlanta team that has lost 5 straight knows it needs to start showing up if it's going to hold onto the No. 8 seed in the East. The Hawks should have no problem getting up for this game after getting hammered at home by the Wizards last month. The Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and Wizards are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 10-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The underdog is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Week on Rockets -2
Bottom Line: The Rockets have yet to beat the Clippers this season, but they are primed to do it tonight. They catch the Clippers at a great time as LA is playing its 3rd road contest in 4 nights. Plus, Houston has been in a great rhythm offensively, and that bodes extremely well for us. The Rockets are 15-4 ATS under coach Kevin McHale after 4 straight games of making 47% of their shots or better. They have won by an average of 10.0 points in this spot. Houston has won 11 straight at home with wins over Portland, Indiana, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. The Clippers have shown some vulnerability on the road where they have lost 2 of 3. Pound the Rockets.

4* Major Elite 8 *SUREFIRE* on Florida -10
Bottom Line: Playing on neutral court favorites or pickems that average 67-74 ppg and are off 3 consecutive double-digit wins has resulted in a 50-15 ATS record since 1997 when they are matched up against a team that allows 67-74 ppg. Teams fitting into this scenario have won by 12.6 points on average. This system is 2-0 ATS this season. In games taking place on the road or a neutral court 15 games or more into the season, Dayton is 0-6 ATS under coach Archie Miller versus teams like Florida that average 53 shots per game or fewer. The Flyers have lost by an average of 12.8 points to these teams. It's been a nice run by Dayton, but I believe it comes to the end of the road Saturday afternoon.