Winning Sports Picks

20* CBB Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT On Tarleton State +5.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Now the Texans will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they are fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Boston College will be playing its 4th game in 10 days, so the Golden Eagles are far from fresh.  

The results have been concerning for the Golden Eagles as they are 1-3 ATS with a 2-point win over Cornell as a 9.5-point home favorite, a 4-point win over Detroit as an 8.5-point home favorite and an outright loss to Maine by 5 as a 20.5-point home favorite.  They should not be favored here.  Oddsmakers are putting too much stock in their 15-point win over a bad George Mason team on Friday as 3-point underdogs.  The Texans likely win this game outright.  Bet Tarleton State Sunday.

15* Kentucky/Gonzaga ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 156

Recent games by Gonzaga and Kentucky have oddsmakers setting this total higher than it should be.  That has provided us with excellent value to pull the trigger on the UNDER as these teams would almost have to get to 80 points apiece tonight to beat us.

Kentucky went over the total in its last two games with a 106-63 win over South Carolina State and a 77-86 loss to Michigan State.  But that Michigan State game went to double-overtime.  It was tied 62-62 at the end of regulation for only 124 combined points.

Gonzaga is coming off a 74-93 loss at Texas for 167 combined points.  You know the Bulldogs are going to be pissed off and focused on defense after that effort.  Gonzaga had beaten Michigan St 64-63 in their previous game for just 127 combined points.  Both of these teams are better defensively than they are getting credit for here.

Kentucky is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Gonzaga is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after playing a road game.  The Wildcats are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on VCU +10.5

The Memphis Tigers are known for struggling early in the season under Penny Hardaway because he always has a new players every year and the chemistry is an issue.  The Tigers should not be double-digit favorites over VCU because of this.

Memphis opened with a 76-67 win at Vanderbilt, which is a rebuilding Commodores team.  That was evident when Vanderbilt lost outright by 12 as a 16-point home favorite to Southern Miss in their next day.  Memphis then lost by 6 at Saint Louis in a game they trailed by 14 with under four minutes to play.  Saint Louis is good, but they just lost 95-67 to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite following that Memphis win.

I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on VCU.  The Rams went 22-10 last season and were expected to be one of the top teams in the A-10 this season.  But they have opened 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS, so they have been overvalued laying 22.5, 20, 4 and 4 points.  Now they are an underdog for the first time this season.  They beat Pittsburgh last time out and only lost by 4 to Arizona State, which just beat Michigan by 25 as a 7.5-point dog the game following the VCU win.

VCU is 20-5 ATS in its last last 25 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points.  This is exactly the price range we want to be betting the Rams and it's a great 'buy low' spot.  Take VCU Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charleston +5.5

Charleston is clearly loaded this season.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  Their lone loss came at UNC on the road in which they covered.  They also beat Chattanooga by 7 as 4-point favorites, Richmond by 2 as 2.5-point favorites, Davidson by 23 as 3-point favorites and Colorado State by 10 as 1-point favorites.  

The Cougars should not be underdogs to Virginia Tech.  This is listed as a neutral court game but it's actually played on Charleston's home court.  Virginia Tech is rebuilding this season and is overvalued due to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule.  The first three wins came against Delaware State, Lehigh and William & Mary all at home.  They then struggled on a neutral to beat Old Dominion by 4 as a 14-point favorite and failed to cover as a 3-point favorite in a 2-point win over Penn State.

Charleston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Charleston is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Hokies are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Charleston Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-Irvine +3.5

UC-Irvine returned three starters and four players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.  The Anteaters went 15-10 last season and should be one of the better teams in the Big West. They're off to a very impressive 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season with a 69-56 upset win at Oregon as 15.5-point dogs and a 79-64 blowout home win over Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites.  Not having a letdown following that Oregon upset was mighty impressive.

Pepperdine has been much less impressive.  They are 3-1 against a soft schedule but lost 71-74 as 4-point road favorites at CS-Fullerton.  Their 94-80 home win over Vanguard University was lackluster in their last game coming in.  And I just don't think head coach Lorenzo Romar is very good.

UC-Irvine crushed Pepperdine 82-48 as a 10-point favorite last season.  Now the Anteaters come back as underdogs in the rematch, which makes zero sense to me.  They are the better team and should be favored in this game even if it is a road game as Pepperdine won't have much of a home-court advantage.

Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  Roll with UC-Irvine Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +3.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 3-0 start this season covering the spread in their two lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound and 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Portland State, which Portland beat 98-91 as a 15.5-point favorite.  Portland is 4-1 this season but lost to the best team they played 65-77 at Kent State.  The Pilots were supposed to be loaded this season returning all 5 starters from a 19-15 team.  They they are without Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG last year) and could be without Mike Meadows (10.2 PPG, 3.0 APG), who is questionable.

The spot really favors Seattle tonight.  They have had the last five days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they have had a ton of time to rest up and game plan for the Pilots.  Meanwhile, Portland will be playing its 6th game in 13 days to start the season.  They just played at Air Force on Thursday and only have one day to game plan for Seattle.  They are at a huge rest and preparation disadvantage here.

Seattle crushed Portland 84-68 at home and 84-72 on the road in the two most recent meetings.  The Redhawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pilots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Seattle Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -6.5

Youngstown State is loaded this season with three starters and three key reserves returning.  They went 19-15 last season and the Penguins are off to an impressive 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They won 92-81 at Canisius as 3.5-point favorites, won 90-72 at home over Tennessee-Martin as 8.5-point favorites, only lost 81-88 at Notre Dame as 10.5-point dogs and crushed Grace Christian 96-68 at home.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season with losses to Seattle by 14 as 3.5-point home dogs, Sacramento State by 10 as 2-point home favorites and at Navy by 9 as 5-point road dogs.

The spot really favors Youngstown State, too.  The Penguins have had the last three days off to rest up and game plan for UC-San Diego.  Meanwhile, the Tritons just lost to Navy yesterday and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, a rarity in college basketball that these players aren't used to.  Not only that but they went to OT with Navy yesterday, so all of their starters are gassed.  Three played 37-plus minutes.

UC-San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after playing a road game.  Youngstown State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where it made 78% or better from the FT line.  The Penguins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games coming off two consecutive games where they made 50% of their shots or better.  The Tritons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Take Youngstown State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  Now they take on a Middle Tennessee team That lost their top two players from last season in Josh Jefferson (14.7 PG) and Donovan Sims (11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 100 assists).

Middle Tennessee has beaten up on two overmatched opponents at home in Brescia and Rice.  But in their lone road game they lost 68-76 at Winthrop despite being 2.5-point favorites.  Now they're on the road again here and this will be their toughest test of the season.  I think getting Missouri State as a short home favorite is an excellent value.

The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team that wins less than 40% of their road games.  Missouri State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite.  Middle Tennessee head coach MdDevitt is 0-6 ATS in road games after leading the previous game by 15 points or more at halftime as the coach of the Blue Raiders.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

20* Indiana/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Xavier +4

Sean Miller is 425-156 as a head coach including 123-47 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  Now they host the Indiana Hoosiers and should not be home underdogs in this game.  Indiana is getting too much credit for blowout wins over Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman to start the season.

Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games following a blowout win by 30 points or more.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Wrong team favored here.  Take Xavier Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

This is a rebuilding year for Belmont.  They lost four starters and brought back just one double-digit scorer.  The Bruins are lucky they aren't 0-3 SU.  They beat Ohio 70-69 as 6-point home favorites, lost 74-89 at Furman as 9-point dogs and were upset 75-77 at Lipscomb as 3-point favorites.  They have no business being 5-point favorites over Tarleton on a neutral here given those ugly results thus far.

The Bruins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Belmont is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Thomas +5.5

St. Thomas played its first season in Division 1 last season.  It predictably didn't go great as they went just 10-20 overall.  But they returned their two best players from that team in Riley Miller (15.4 PPG) and Parker Bjorklund (12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG), who are both deadly from 3-point range.  Head coach John Tauer added several Division 1 transfers and one of the best prep recruiting classes in the conference, lead by the in-state duo of Ahjany Lee and Kendall Blue.

St. Thomas is off to an impressive 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They blew out Chicago State 83-61 as a 9-point favorite and St. Francis 84-48 as an 8-point favorite.  Chicago State just upset Valparaiso as a 9.5-point dog last night.  But the loss may have been the most impressive.  St. Thomas only lost 72-60 at Creighton as a 28-point dog.  That's a Creighton team that is loaded and ranked in the Top 10.

Montana went 18-14 last season and did return a lot of their players, but clearly those players aren't very good when you look at their first two games this season.  Montana lost 91-63 at Duquesne as a 3-point underdog and 86-64 at Xavier as an 18-point dog.  Th Grizzlies have no business being a 5.5-point favorite against St. Thomas given what we've seen from these teams thus far.

The Tommies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Keep in mind this is a neutral site game in Houston as well, so there's certainly no way Montana should be favored by this much, let alone favored at all.  The Grizzlies are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.  Roll with St. Thomas Thursday.

20* Michigan/Arizona State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -7

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 91-60 win as 8.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh yesterday at the Barclays Center.  They got to rest their starters late and also played the early game, so they will be the fresher team here against Arizona State.

Arizona State needed a second half comeback to beat VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point underdogs.  That win will have taken a lot out of them.  That was a VCU team that was without their best player in Patrick Balwin, who was a late scratch.  They will get blasted tonight against the best opponent they have faced this season.

Prior to that VCU victory, there were some very concerning results for Arizona State.  They only beat Tarleton State 62-59 as 14-point home favorites, beat Northern Arizona 84-68 as 16.5-point home favorites and actually lost outright at Texas Southern 66-67 as 11-point road favorites.  So they failed to cover three straight games against suspect competition and nearly lost two of them outright.

The Wolverines are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  The Sun Devils are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Portland -3.5

The Portland Pilots are loaded this season and a sleeper in the WCC.  They returned all five starters and 91% of their scoring from a team that went 19-15 in Shantay Legans' first year on the job.  Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG in 2021-22) has yet to play this season and is questionable tonight, but they are still loaded even without him.

The Pilots got off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 27, 37 and 8 points at home before going on the road and losing 65-77 at Kent State.  But the Golden Flashes are one of the best mid majors in the country as they are 4-0 this season with wins by 26, 22, 21 and that 12-point victory.  That loss to a very good Kent State team last time out has Portland undervalued tonight.

Now I expect the Pilots to bounce back in blowout fashion against Air Force tonight.  Air Force went 11-18 last season including 4-13 in Mountain West play.  They lost two of their best players from that team including leading scorer A.J. Walker (14.2 PPG in 2021-22).  They return only one double-digit scorer.

To no surprise, it has been a rough start for the Falcons.  They lost 58-62 at Bowling Green, only beat Delaware 75-71 at home and lost outright at home to Texas A&M Commerce 73-69 as a 10-point favorite.  They can't be losing to Texas A&M Commerce at home and expect to beat Portland, which will be by far their toughest opponent to date.

The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss.  The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss.  Take Portland Thursday.

20* Gonzaga/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +1

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 teams to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Christian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

Texas opened with a 72-57 win over a solid UTEP team before crushing Houston Christian 82-31 as a 31-point favorite.  The Longhorns could very well be the best defensive team in the country, and I look for them to shut down the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight.

We saw a chink in Gonzaga's armor with a 64-63 win over Michigan State as a 12-point favorite last time out.  The Longhorns can do the same.  They will be out for revenge from a 74-86 loss at Gonzaga last season.  That was a very good Gonzaga team, and they should be down a notch or two this season, while Texas is improved.  Plus, the Longhorns get them at home this time around.  Wrong team favored here in what is going to be a raucous atmosphere in Austin.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 141.5

Michigan State is coming off two low scoring games to start the season.  They won 73-55 over Northern Arizona for 128 combined points and a total of 144.  They lost 63-64 to Gonzaga for 127 combined points and a total of 142.  And now the books have set the number too high again with this 141.5-point total against a very good defensive team in Kentucky.

Kentucky has been without Oscar Tshiebwe (17.3 PPG, 15.3 RPG, 46 blocks last season) in his first two games this season.  But he is expected to make his season debut tonight, and he is arguably the best defender in the country.  They held Howard to 63 points and Duquesne to 52 in their two games without him.  Michigan State will have a hard time finishing anything at the rim with Tshiebwe in there tonight.

Kentucky is 16-3 UNDER in its last 19 games following a home win.  The Wildcats are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games following a blowout home win by 20 points or more.  The UNDER is 59-29 in Wildcats last 88 games following a win.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +20.5

The Houston Cougars are getting a lot of love after opening the season with two blowout wins over Northern Colorado and St. Joseph's.  While the Cougars are still loaded this season, they should not be favored by 20-plus points against a 'game' Oral Roberts team tonight.

The Cougars lost four double-digit scorers from last season in Edwards (13.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG), White Jr. (12.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Carlton (11.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Moore (10.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG).  Their backcourt is loaded, but their frontcourt will take a step back.

Oral Roberts is among the favorites to win the Summit League this season.  They went 19-12 last season and brought back four starters, including star G Max Abmas (22.8 PPG, 3.7 APG last year.  They returned six other players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season including Issac McBride (12.3 PPG) and Elijah Lufile (7.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG).

I was impressive with the 70-78 loss at St. Mary's as 9-point dogs in their opener that flashed the potential of the Golden Eagles.  St. Mary's beat Vermont 79-53 as an 8-point favorite and North Texas 63-33 as a 9.5-point favorite.  So that 8-point loss to the Gaels looks even better after seeing what St. Mary's has done against their other two opponents.

The Golden Eagles are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Oral Roberts is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Golden Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Golden Eagles will give the Cougars more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Roll with Oral Roberts Monday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland +10

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies got off to a great start this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  But they were probably caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State when they lost 82-87 as 7.5-point home favorites to Bowling Green last time out.  Alas, now that loss works in our favor here as Oakland is catching too many points in this game catching 10 at home.

Oklahoma State has been far from impressive this season.  After beating UT-Arlington 77-66 as a 20.5-point home favorite, the Cowboys lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Southern Illinois.  Now they are overvalued once again in their third game laying double-digits on the road to a game Oakland team that has pulled some big upsets in recent years against Power 5 schools, or at the very least hung tough.

Indeed, last year Oakland won 56-55 as a 17-point underdog at Oklahoma State.  The Golden Grizzlies only lost 71-84 as 22.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma State two seasons ago.  They've proven they can hang with this team already, and now they finally get them at home and are catching double-digits.  Roll with Oakland Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech -1.5

Two years ago Georgia Tech surprised everyone and won the ACC Tournament to make the Big Dance.  That makes their 12-20 season last year a disappointment.  But this is now a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets early this season.

Josh Pastner is a great recruiter and does have a pair of returning starters to work with.  But the excitement comes with a pair of transfers Gardner Webb star Lance Terry (14.3 PPG last year) and South Alabama's best player Ja'von Franklin (12.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG last year).  

The Yellow Jackets crushed Clayton State 93-63 behind a balanced effort with six players scoring in double figures.  Terry led the way with 16 points while Franking had seven points and five rebounds and wasn't even one of the ones in double-digits.  That's a good sign moving forward and shows this team may have better depth than expected.

But this play is more of a fade of Georgia State than anything.  Head coach Rob Lanier departed for SMU after leading the Panthers to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.  Now this team is getting way too much respect early in the season based on what they did in the past, not what they're going to do this season.

Indeed, the Panthers lost all five starters from last season.  First-year head coach Jonas Hayes, a former Xavier assistant, has his hands full.  Georgia State was unimpressive in a 76-59 win over Coastal Georgia in their opener.  This is a massive step up in class for this young, inexperienced team tonight.

Pastner is 28-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech beat Georgia State 72-62 on a neutral last year.  That was a bad GT team and a good Georgia State team, too.  No question the Yellow Jackets are the better team this season with the Panthers having to replace their entire starting 5.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Grand Canyon +2.5

Grand Canyon looks like the best team in the underrated Western Athletic Conference this season.  Bryce Drew replaced Dan Majerle ahead of the 2020-21 season and immediately led the Antelopes to their first-ever NCAA Tournament.  They went 23-8 last year in his third season with the program.

Drew welcomes back three starters this season including Jovan Blacksher (15.8 PPG, 124 assists last season).  The Antelopes are off to a 2-0 start this season beating Montana State 60-54 and SD Christian 101-50.  Nevada should not be favored here.  They are coming off an 84-71 win over Utah Tech.  

The Wolf Pack went 13-18 last season and Steve Alford is on the hot seat, which seams to happen everywhere he goes.  It won't get any better for the Wolf Pack this season considering they lose four starters that averaged double digits scoring last season in Sherfield (19.1 PPG), Cambridge (16.2 PPG), Washington (10.5 PPG) and Bramah (10.8 PPG).

Grand Canyon is 32-17 ATS in its last 49 games overall.  Nevada is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Wolf Pack are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Take Grand Canyon Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pennsylvania +12.5

Penn is expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season.  It's easy to see why as they returned four starters including likely Ivy League Player of the Year Jordan Dingle (20.8 PPG), who scored at least 30 points six times last season.  Max Martz (10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Jonah Charles (6.7 PPG) are sharp shooters.  Michael Moshkovitz (5.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is a do-it-all type.

But Penn was blown out 78-50 at Iona as 6-point underdogs in the opener.  I think that result has them catching too many points tonight against Missouri.  That's an Iona team that is one of the best mid-majors in the country coached by Rick Pitino.  And they simply had an off night shooting 32.7%.

Look for the Quakers to come back and give Missouri a run for its money tonight.  Missouri only beat South Indiana 97-91 as 19.5-point favorites in the opener, a way more concerning result than Penn.  This is a clear rebuilding year for the Tigers coming off a 12-21 season and under a first-year head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State.  The Tigers lost five players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season and return only one starter.

Penn is 50-30 ATS in its last 80 road games following a road loss.  Steve Donahue is 15-6 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of Penn.  Donahue is 15-3 ATS in road games after a game where his team made 33% of their shots or worse as a head coach.  Donahue is 45-22 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more as a head coach.  Take Penn Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Fordham +19.5

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson will be a key contributor right away.

The Rams are off and running with an 88-74 win over Dartmouth as 7-point favorites in their opener.  Quisenberry led the way with 20 points while Moore had 18.  Third-year starter Kyle Rose had 11 points and JC import Antrell Charlton scored 16 points.

While I like this Fordham team and think they are undervalued to start the season, this play is more of a fade of Arkansas.  They lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers.  I think they will struggle in the early going despite Eric Musselman bringing in some great talent to replace them.  

The Razorbacks only beat North Dakota State 76-58 as 22.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a NDSU team that lost four starters and three double-digit scorers from last season.  I would make Fordham a substantial favorite over NDSU, so I have to take the 19.5 points with the Rams here.  The Rams are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Roll with Fordham Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland -6.5

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies are off and running this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  Now they should roll Bowling Green, which narrowly escaped with a 62-58 home win over Air Force in their opener.

Bowling Green looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC this season.  The Falcons went 13-18 last season including 6-14 in MAC play.  They don't return a single double-digit scorer and lose their three best players in Plowden (15.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Reece (11.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and Diggs (9.5 PPG, 66 3-pointers).  There are seven newcomers and I expect chemistry to be an issue early for this team.

The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Roll with Oakland Friday.

20* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iona -2.5

Rick Pitino is turning this Iona program into a monster. The Gaels went 25-8 last season including 17-3 in the MAAC.  They returned three starters from that team including MAAC Player of the Year candidate Nelly Junior Joseph (13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 69 blocks).

The Gaels are off and running this season with an impressive 78-50 home win as only 6-point favorites against what was expected to be a very good Penn team.  The three returning starters in Joseph, Slazinski and JeanLouis combined for 41 points.  Newcomer Daniss Jenkins led the way with 19 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists and could prove to be one of the best guards in the conference when it's all said and done.

Hofstra is getting respect tonight due to upsetting Princeton 83-77 as a 2-point underdog in the opener.  But that is keeping this line lower than it should be, and it's providing us with some line value to pull the trigger on Iona.  Hofstra returned its best player, but lost three starters in Ray (13.4 PPG), Cooks (12.2 PPG) and Ayiola (7.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG).  One guy cannot beat this balanced Iona team.

Iona is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Hofstra is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games.  Bet Iona Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -2

The UMass Minutemen made one of the best hires of the offseason grabbing Frank Martin from South Carolina.  He took the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017.  He is great at turning around programs and loves a challenge.

But the cupboard isn't bare for Martin.  He welcomes back one of the best point guards in the Atlantic 10 in Noah Fernandes (14.9 PPG) and shooter T.J. Weeks Jr. (9.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) in the backcourt.  Fernandes had a team-high 147 assists last season while Weeks shot 36.9% from 3-point range.

Martin put his reputation as a talented recruiter and evaluator of talent to use.  He nabbed Louisville transfer Matt Cross and UConn transfer Rahsool Diggins, who were both Top 100 recruits out of high school.  He also brought in a couple big men with him from South Carolina in Ta'Quan Woodley and Wildens Leveque.  Dyondre Domingquez is a key returnee that should see more action.

The Minutemen are off to a great start to the Martin era with a 94-67 win as 17-point home favorites over Central Connecticut State.  I think Towson is getting too much love early in the season after going 25-9 last year and beating up on a bad CAA Conference.  They only beat Albany 67-62 as 16.5-point home favorites in their opener.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games.  UMass is 28-13-2 ATS in its last 43 home games overall.  Roll with UMass Thursday.

20* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).

Seattle beat UC-San Diego 73-51 as 4-point home favorites last season.  I think we are getting a discount on them as 3-point road favorites this season considering they return better talent and experience than UC-San Diego.  Bet Seattle Monday.

15* UTEP/Texas CBB ANNIHILATOR on Texas -22

Texas opens the season ranked No. 12 in the country and for good reason.  Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 games to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and CHristian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

UTEP went 20-14 last season but loses four starters from that team.  Their lone returning starters is Jamari Sibley (5.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They lose their two best players by far Jamal Bieniemy (14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Souley Boum (19.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  This looks like a rebuilding years in El Paso.  Roll with Texas Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Fordham -6

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson and SG Noah Best will also be key contributors right away.

I'll gladly fade Dartmouth, which looks like the worst team in the Ivy League.  Dartmouth went 9-16 last season and loses four starters from that team, including Brandan Barry (14.6 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Aaryn Rai (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach David McLaughlin, who is 46-92 in his six seasons at Dartmouth.  The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Take Fordham Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Kent State ML +100

The Kent State Golden Flashes look like one of the top teams in the MAC this season.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that team.  That includes Sincere Carry (17.9 PPG, 4.8 APG) and Malique Jacobs (12.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG).  They also return their top reserves in Giovanni Santiago (8.6 PPG).

Northern Kentucky also has a decent outlook after going 20-12 last year and returning four starters as well.  But I just think Kent State is the better team and the wrong team is favored.  Kent State won the lone meeting two years ago 92-73 at home.

Common opponents last season also show the Golden Flashes were the better team.  They went 3-0 and outscored opponents by 15.0 points per game, while Northern Kentucky went 2-2 against those same three games and only outscored them by 1.3 points per game.  Kent State beat Eastern Michigan by 19 and 9 and Detroit by 17.  Northern Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan by 1, and actually lost twice to Detroit last season by 8 and 6 points.  Bet Kent State on the Money Line Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Tennessee -35.5

The Tennessee Vols are ranked No. 11 in the country to start the season and for good reason.  They went 27-8 last season and return four starters from that team in Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Ollvier Nkamhoua (8.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Uros Plavsic (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG), plus Zakai Diegler (8.8 PPG).

The Vols add in the 12th-ranked recruit in the 2022 class in Julian Phillips, a top-100 prospect in B.J. Edwards, a two-time first-team All-MVC performer in Tyreke Key from Indiana State.  The Vols dominated the non-conference last season and I expect them to easily cover this 35.5-point spread in the opener.

Tennessee Tech went 11-21 last season and looks like one of the worst teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  They lost all five starters from that team who all scored at least 7.8 PPG.  Their leading returning scorer averaged 7.5 PPG.  They had a former student manager that was pressed into action last season.  The Volunteers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference home games.  Take Tennessee Monday.

20* UNC/Kansas Championship Game No-Brainer on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks have been dominant in their last two games.  They beat Miami 76-50 before taking a 10-0 lead against Villanova and never looking back in an 81-65 victory.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in nine of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have also been impressive in pulling three upsets to make the title game as the 8th seed.  They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they will meet their match in the Kansas Jayhawks.  A couple factors have me thinking the Tar Heels cannot hang with the Jayhawks.

The main one is the injury to UNC's most important player in Armando Bacot.  He suffered an ankle injury late in the win over Duke and was noticeably limping up and down the court when he came back into the game.  He won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bacot has 30 double-doubles this season and is one shy of David Robinson's record.  They will miss his defense and rebounding when he's hobbling around out there.

There's no such thing as a letdown in a title game.  But with all the hype surrounding their win over rival Duke, it's going to be hard for the Tar Heels to match the intensity they played with in that back-and-forth game here just two days later.  They had to play in the late game while Kansas got to sit around and watch, and the Jayhawks will be the fresher, more prepared team because of it.  Bet Kansas Monday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks showed their true potential when they outscored Miami by 32 in the second half to win 76-50 and claim their spot in the Final Four.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in eight of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

Give Villanova credit for making it this far despite really only going six deep consistently.  But now they suffered a huge blow with the loss of G Justin Moore, who suffered a torn achilles in the win over Houston last round.  Moore (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is someone they could not afford to lose.  Now their lack of depth is exacerbated with the loss of Moore, and I give them little to no chance of keeping this game with Kansas competitive.

Kansas is 8-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats will fall behind in this game and they won't be able to play catch up without Moore.  His loss isn't being factored enough into this line.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* St. Bonaventure/Xavier NIT No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -1.5

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have had the much tougher path to the NIT semifinals than the Xavier Musketeers have.  They are the better team as well and should be bigger than 1.5-point favorites over the Musketeers in essentially a pick the winner situation.

The Bonnies are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets on the road as underdogs in the NIT over Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia just to get here.  You know this veteran team that returned all five starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team isn't about to squander this opportunity now.  They are 'all in' to win the NIT and this will be their easiest test yet.

Xavier has been grossly overvalued in the 2nd half of the season.  The Musketeers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They got to play three straight home games in the NIT to get here against Cleveland State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.  And they were in dog fights with Cleveland State (won by 4) and Vanderbilt (won by 2).  Keep in mind they lost their best player in their win over Florida in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) and he is out for the remainder of the tournament.

The Bonnies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as favorites.  The Musketeers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Xavier is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  St. Bonaventure is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

20* Miami/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The ACC has proven to be the most underrated conference in the NCAA Tournament with three teams in the Elite 8.  And Miami has been the most underrated team in the ACC this season.  Note that they beat UNC by 28 and upset Duke on the road as 15-point underdogs while also losing to Duke by just 4 as 8.5-point dogs in the ACC Tournament.

I was on Miami in their first two NCAA Tournament games as they upset both USC and Auburn.  I regret not taking them against Iowa State, too.  I won't make that mistake here as I will back the Hurricanes catching too many points against Kansas.  These are two mediocre defensive teams that can light you up on offense and I think this line should be much closer to a PK.

Miami has some of the best guards in the country and I actually favor their guards over Kansas here.  Remy Martin will be a defensive liability for Kansas.  McGusty (17.5 PPG, Wong 15.5 PPG and Moore (12.5 PPG) are all studs, and big man Waardenburg (43.4% 3-pointers) is a matchup nightmare.  In fact, each of Miami's five starters all shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Kansas has had the much easier path to the Elite 8 and has struggled to put away each of the last two teams after blowing out Texas Southern.  They only beat Creighton 79-72 as 12.5-point favorites, and that was a Creighton team missing two starters.  They only beat Providence 66-61 as 6.5-point favorites, and the Friars were fortunate to make it this far winning so many close games this year.  Look for this game to go down to the wire against Miami as well.

The Hurricanes are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Hurricanes are 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Arkansas/Duke Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +4

Duke had about everything go right for them in their Sweet 16 comeback win over Texas Tech down the stretch.  They couldn't miss a shot or a free throw.  Their zone defense confused Texas Tech in the 2nd half as they weren't prepared for it.  Arkansas will be prepared for everything, and Duke won't be catching them by surprise here, nor will they be as hot as they were down the stretch of that game.

Arkansas proved what it was capable of with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga as 9.5-point underdogs last round.  The Razorbacks basically just continued playing they way they have all 2nd half of this season.  Indeed, they are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall with two of those losses by 4 points or less.  So they have lost just one of their last 21 games by more than 4 points, making for a 20-1 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to this 4-point spread.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and playing some terrible defense down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have allowed 73 or more points in six of their last seven games.  Arkansas is the much better defensive team, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted defense.  They have allowed 76 or fewer points in 19 of their last 21 games, and 68 or fewer in 12 of those.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team catching points here.

Duke is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make 31% or less of their 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 1-5 all-time in the Pacific Time Zone in the NCAA Tournament.  This will be the Razorbacks' 2nd consecutive trip to the Elite 8 so they have that experience, and they will have just that extra motivation to make the Final 4 this time around.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Houston/Villanova Elite 8 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars look like the best team in the country.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their wins over UAB by 14, Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12 in the NCAA Tournament couldn't have been any more impressive.

You can rely on the Cougars to be the tougher team and the better defensive team every time they hit the floor, and that can take you a long way.  They rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.  Nothing ever comes easy against the Cougars, and they are tough to defend on offense because they are so balanced.

Villanova has faced the easier path to this point by far, beating Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan.  They have managed to get by those last two teams in close affairs thanks to some clutch FT shooting down the stretch.  But I don't expect them to have the lead down the stretch to put that FT shooting on display.  And the Wildcats really only go six deep, so I expect the Cougars to wear them down, especially having to play their 2nd game in 3 days here.

Houston is 9-1 ATS in neutral court games this season.  Villanova is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  This will also essentially be a home game for the Cougars being played in San Antonio, TX.  I just love this Houston team and I'm willing to ride them as far as they will take me as long as the price is right, and it's right here as a short favorite.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* UNC/UCLA Sweet 16 No-Brainer on on UNC +2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels proved none of this was a fluke with their 93-86 (OT) upset win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Baylor in the Round of 32.  And that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate.  The Tar Heels led by 25 in the 2nd half before Brady Manek was inexplicably thrown out of the game, and PG Caleb Love fouled out.  Give the Tar Heels credit for surviving those two key losses and winning the OT.  That kind of win will give this team the confidence they need to beat UCLA Friday.

After a 57-53 scare as a 13.5-point favorite against Akron, everything went right for UCLA in its 72-56 win over St. Mary's last round.  The Bruins shot 56.5% as a team against a very good St. Mary's defense, which is definitely fluky.  They used their athleticism to dominate the Gaels.  That won't work against the Tar Heels, who are one of the most athletic, talented teams in the country.  It also won't help that UCLA's best player in Jaime Jaquez Jr. is nursing and ankle injury suffered against the Gaels and won't be 100% for this one.

UCLA is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. ACC opponents.  The Bruins are 3-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech PK

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 27-9 SU & 22-14 ATS this season with most of their losses coming down to the wire against elite teams.  They played in the toughest conference in the country as the Big 12 has proven to be just that in the NCAA Tournament thus far.

I think Duke is getting too much respect due to the Coach K retirement tour.  And just like their final home game ended in disappointment with an upset loss to North Carolina, their season is going to end in similar fashion with a loss to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16.

I trust Texas Tech's defense much more than that of Duke.  Texas Tech ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense and forces you to play their game.  The Blue Devils don't have the experience or the toughness to match their intensity.  Defense has been Duke's weakness this season.  The Blue Devils have allowed 76 or more points in five of their last six games overall.  To compare, Texas Tech has only allowed more than 74 points once the ENTIRE season.

Texas Tech is 7-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game this season.  The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Red Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Duke is 1-7 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 0-5 all-time in NCAA Tournament games on the West Coast.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas/Gonzaga UNDER 156

The books have set the bar too high in this game between Arkansas and Gonzaga.  I expect it to be much more of a defensive struggle than this 156-point total would indicate.  Yes, both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but both teams also really get after it defensively.

Indeed, Gonzaga ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defense.  Arkansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defense, which is a big reason the Razorbacks have gone on such a huge run in the second half of the season.  They have done it with defense, not offense.

The Razorbacks have gone 17-3 in their last 20 games overall.  They have combined for 156 or fewer points with their opponents in 19 of those 20 games, making for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 156-point totals.  That includes their ugly 53-48 win over New Mexico State last round for just 101 combined points.  I like that both teams have had nearly a week to prepare for one another, which is going to favor defense over offense.

Mark Few is 11-1 UNDER after a game where they forced 5 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga.  Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams where the total is 150 to 159.5 in March games are 212-132 (61.6%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams where the total is 150 to 159.5 (Gonzaga) - a very good defensive team allowing 39% or less on the season are 182-117 (60.9%) since 1997.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Vanderbilt/Xavier NIT ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 19-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.  They handled their business against Dayton and Belmont in the first two rounds of the NIT.

Xavier is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with four losses by double-digits and an upset loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament.  They survived Cleveland State by 4 as 11-point favorites and then beat Florida thanks to the Gators shooting just 32.8% from the field.  They won't be so fortunate against Vanderbilt, the best team they have faced in the NIT thus far.  They may not have their best player in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG), who suffered a knee injury against Florida and is questionable.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-16-4 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  Vanderbilt is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  The Musketeers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 14-5 SU & 13-6 ATS in all games away from home. 

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.  Then they upset USC in the opening round as 2-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 18th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Walker Kessler away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Auburn has been grossly overvalued down the stretch in going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers should not be laying 7.5 points to the Hurricanes today.  Miami is 23-8-1 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Iowa State/Wisconsin CBB No-Brainer on Iowa State +5

It has been a bad look for the Wisconsin Badgers in their last three games.  They lost outright to Nebraska as 13.5-point favorites, lost outright to Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites and needed a late surge to put away Colgate 67-60 as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover.

The Badgers have been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season winning almost all of their close games, so their record is inflated.  They actually rank 7th in KenPom's luck factor, and he makes them less than a 1-point favorite over Iowa State on a neutral.  I agree with that number and think there's value with the Cyclones here.

Iowa State struggles against explosive offensive teams with athletic big men.  That's not Wisconsin.  The Badgers rely on defense and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They are very similar to LSU, which Iowa State upset 59-54.  This is going to be another ugly, low-scoring defensive battle where points are at a premium.  I always like siding with the dog in this spot.

Iowa State is a perfect 14-0 SU in non-conference games this season with upset wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa and LSU.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as favorites.  Bet Iowa State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 18-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Dayton has some key injuries that I don't think they'll be able to overcome here on the road against an underrated team from the SEC.  The Commodores are fully healthy and will have a big home-court advantage here as the fans are excited to see this team in the postseason.  I watched them handle Belmont last round and bet on them, and I'm backing them here again as a short home favorite.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida/Xavier UNDER 145

This total has been set way too high for two teams that like to slow it down.  Florida ranks 284th in adjusted tempo while Xavier ranks 105th.  The Musketeers struggle to get easy buckets on offense as do the Gators.

Xavier games have averaged just 143.1 combined points per game including OT this season while Florida games have averaged just 137.3 points per game including OT.  Those numbers alone show that there is value with the UNDER 145 today.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Houston/Illinois CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -4.5

The Houston Cougars are a legit national title contender.  They are consistently undervalued in the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars have gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and won the AAC Tournament by winning all three games by double-digits.  Then they beat a very good mid-major team in UAB by 14.

Illinois was fortunate to even advance to face Houston.  They only led for 25 seconds against UT-Chattanooga and managed to pull out the 54-53 victory.  They won't be so fortunate against one of the best teams in the country here in Houston.  

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  They don't have the guards to match these elite Houston guards.  The Cougars have the big men inside to stifle Kofi Cockburn.  So the difference in this game is Houston is going to dominate Illinois on the perimeter.

Houston is 7-1 ATS in neutral court games this season and 24-9 ATS in its lsat 33 neutral site games.  The Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sunday games.  Bet Houston Sunday.

20* Memphis/Gonzaga CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +10.5

Gonzaga got a tough draw having to face this red-hot Memphis team in the Round of 32.  The Bulldogs are legitimately on upset alert because the Tigers are showing down the stretch how good they can be when they play up to their talent potential.

Memphis is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall with its only losses coming to Houston and SMU.  Note that Memphis also upset Houston twice during the regular season before losing in the AAC Championship Game to the Cougars, which is too be expected.  They also avenged a loss to SMU with a win over the Mustangs in the conference tournament.  Then they made easy work of Boise State in the opening round leading by double-digits throughout.

Gonzaga actually trailed Georgia State with 13 minutes to go before going on a crazy run to make the final score look like a blowout when it was really a competitive game.  The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I just don't think this Gonzaga team is nearly as dominant as last year's version that made it to the National Championship Game.

Memphis has the athletes that are going to give the slower Bulldogs problems.  Jalen Duren has the size inside that will make life way more difficult on Gonzaga big men Timme and Holmgren.  Things won't come as easy for them as they are used to due to the size and athleticism of Memphis as a whole.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Memphis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games and remember, they won the NIT last year so they have that experience that has helped them this postseason.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.  Take Memphis Saturday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a veteran team loaded with seniors that returned all five starters from last season.  They were disappointed they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they are putting all their chips in one basket to try and win that NIT.

That was evident in their 80-68 road win at St. Louis as 3.5-point underdogs in the opener.  St. Louis has one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so that win was no small feat.  Now they are catching 6 points at BYU and I don't think BYU is any better than St. Louis.

Northern Iowa is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  BYU is disappointed to be playing in the NIT after choking down the stretch, going 6-6 SU in its last 12 games overall with all six wins coming as a favorite of 7 points or more, including five as double-digit favorites in games they were supposed to win.  They were also upset outright three times as favorites.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Northern Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  BYU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* St. Peter's/Murray State CBB No-Brainer on Murray State -8

The Murray State Racers are 31-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

Look for the Racers to make easy work of a St. Peter's team that is coming off a historic upset over Kentucky on Thursday.  It's very common for teams that pull a huge upset in the first round to fall flat in the second round.  I think that will be the case for the Peacocks here.  Murray State is a legitimate Final 4 contender, while St. Peter's is a one-hit wonder.

It was a bad look for the Peacocks in the non-conference as they lost to Stony Brook, Siena, St. Francis-NY, St. John's by 21 and Providence by 14.  Keep in mind Kentucky led by 8 with just a couple minutes left before falling in OT.  And Murray State led by 9 over San Francisco with three minutes left before foul trouble and injuries had the Dons making the comeback to force OT.  But Murray State is back to full strength for this game as they got lucky in the injury department coming out of that game unscathed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (St. Peter's) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS since 1997.  Murray State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -11.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are playing up to their potential now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won the Big 12 Tournament and then blasted Texas Southern 83-56 in the opening round.  Now they'll make easy work of the Creighton Bluejays.

Give Creighton credit for going 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  They even lost starting PG Ryan Nembhard a few games ago and played well without him.  They overcame a 9-point deficit in the final two minutes to beat San Diego State in overtime in the opening round.

Unfortunately for the Bluejays, that OT win came at another cost.  They lost their best big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.7 BPG) in the closing minutes of that SDSU game to a season-ending injury.  He led the team with 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG on 72.7% shooting in four postseason games and it's a huge blow.  Kansas is going to get whatever it wants in the pain against the Bluejays without Kalbrenner as a rim protector, and they are going to be much easier to defend without him as well.

Plays on neutral court teams (Kansas) - an explosive offensive team averaging 76 PPG or more against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Jayhawks are going to run the short-handed Bluejays out of the building today.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* UNC/Baylor CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor is nowhere near as good as they were last year when they won the NCAA Tournament.  I'm expecting an early exit from them, and it may just come here against the Tar Heels.  They are still without LJ Cryer (13.5 PPG) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and these losses are going to prove too tough to overcome.

The Bears have been overvalued for over a month going just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They barely beat Iowa State at home in their regular season finale and then went on to get upset by Oklahoma in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament.  They did crush a bad Norfolk State team in the opening round, but that has them overvalued here.

The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  North Carolina is 7-1 ATS after two straight games making 78% of its free throws or better this season.  Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

20* Colgate/Wisconsin CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Wisconsin -7.5

I cashed in Providence yesterday over South Dakota State as the Jackrabbits were the single most popular upset pick in the tournament.  Providence was grossly underrated all season and continued to be as only 2-point favorites over SDSU in the opening round.  Well, like most think Providence is a lucky team, most also think Wisconsin is a lucky team.

The Badgers won the Big Ten regular season title thanks to winning almost all of their close games.  That's the same route Providence took by winning almost all their close games.  I think it has the Badgers undervalued as only 7.5-point favorites over Colgate in the Round of 64.  Colgate is a very popular upset pick here.

This will essentially be a home game for the Badgers being played in Milwaukee, WI which I think is getting overlooked.  I was not impressed with Colgate in the non-conference as they had losses to NC Statel, Harvard, Northeastern, Pittsburgh and Lehigh by single-digits and St. John's, Monmouth, Vermont, Niagara and Cornell by double-digits.  

They did most of their damage against the weak Patriot League.  They played the 339th-ranked schedule in the country while Wisconsin played the 19th.  Colgate ranks just 203rd in the country in adjusted defense and it's hard to trust a single-digit underdog that defends that poorly to keep it close against a top-notch program like Wisconsin.

Colgate is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 non-conference road games.  Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  The Badgers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  Take Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chattanooga +8

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season.  The Fighting Illini are 22-9 SU & 13-18 ATS this season.  They have a great big man in Kofi Cockburn, but their guards are very underwhelming surrounding him.  The Fighting Illini are definitely on upset alert in the Round of 64.

Chattanooga went 27-7 this season and what is most impressive about that is they didn't lose a single game by more than 11 points, so they were competitive in all 34 games.  That 11-point loss came at Murray State, which went 30-2 this season and is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chattanooga has a very good big man in Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa (11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG), who can match up with Cockburn inside.  The Mocs are 55th in adjusted offense and 93rd in adjusted defense, so they are balanced.  They also played the 89th-toughest schedule in the country, so they are battle tested.  They upset VCU on the road, which is no small feat.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Mocs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss but a SU win.  Chattanooga is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss overall.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Chattanooga Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -4

The Alabama Crimson Tide are cheap in the Round of 64 as only 4-point favorites over Notre Dame.  This team was overvalued during the regular season due to what they did last year, going just 11-20-1 ATS.  But that's why we are getting them at a discount because they have been money burners all season.

Alabama played the #1 toughest schedule in the entire country.  So they are battle-tested heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I like the fact that the Crimson Tide play at the 11th-fasted pace in the country, which will have them capitalizing on the tired legs of Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish will indeed be tired.  They had to go to double-overtime on Wednesday to defeat Rutgers in Dayton, Ohio.  Then they had to take the long flight Wednesday night to San Diego, CA.  They can't possibly have much left in the tank after that effort and that flight, and I expect it to show in their play Friday night.  Look for the Crimson Tide to run them out of the building.

Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games as an underdog.  The Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Plays on favorites (Alabama) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami +2

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS in all games away from home.  This game will be played in Greenville, SC and if anything they will have the home-court advantage over USC, which has to travel across the country.

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 17th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Isaiah Mobley away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

USC comes in struggling having gone just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  The lone win was a 4-point victory over Washington as 6.5-point favorites in the conference tournament.  They lost to UCLA twice by 10 and 6 points and to Arizona by 20 at home.  I don't trust the Pac-12 much in this tournament outside of Arizona and perhaps UCLA.

The Hurricanes are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs, including 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  USC is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Trojans should not be favored over the Hurricanes in this one.  Roll with Miami Friday.

15* CBB Friday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Purdue -16

Purdue went 11-0 in the non-conference this season with seven wins by 20 points or more.  I fully expect them to crush Yale by more than 16 points in the Round of the 64 in the NCAA Tournament Friday.

Yale has some concerning losses in the non-conference that makes me believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Purdue.  The Bulldogs lost 44-80 at Seton Hall, 64-86 at Auburn, 60-87 at St. Mary's and 77-91 to Iona on a neutral.  Purdue is better than all of those teams with the exception of perhaps Auburn.

I just don't think the Bulldogs have the firepower on offense to score with Purdue.  They rank 209th in adjusted offense this season and average just 7 made 3-pointers per game at a 33% clip.  Purdue ranks 3rd in adjusted offense this season and makes 9 3's per game at a 39.1% clip.

Yale is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers went 0-9-1 ATS in their final 10 Big Ten games this season which is keeping this number shorter than it should be.  This is actually a great 'buy low' spot on them.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Murray State -1.5

The Murray State Racers are favored for good reason.  They went 30-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

San Francisco shouldn't have even made the NCAA Tournament.  Every time they stepped up in class they lost this season.  Their lone signature win was at home against Davidson early in the season.  They lost to Loyola-Chicago, BYU, Gonzaga (three times by double-digits) and St. Mary's (twice).  They didn't earn hardly any resume building wins.

Now the Dons have to travel across the country to face Murray State in Indianapolis Thursday.  This will essentially be a home game for the Racers as it is less than a five-hour trip from Murray, Kentucky to Indianapolis and you know their fans will be there to support this historic team.  San Francisco will be without 1st-team All-WCC F Yauhen Massalski (13.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG), who played the first 31 games of the season before having to sit out against Gonzaga with a knee injury.

San Francisco is 1-9 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Dons are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Racers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Murray State Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing some of the best basketball in the country with the exception of their loss to red-hot Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game.  The Razorbacks are still 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I think that loss to the Aggies has bettors worried about them, but I'm not one bit.

Arkansas checks all the boxes of a team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  They are 16th in adjusted defense and 40th in adjusted offense while rank 28th in tempo, so they like to push the pace.  They are a good rebounding team and they take care of the basketball.

There is simply too much love for Vermont in the opening round.  Yes, the Catamounts have won eight straight, but they played in one of the easiest conference in the country.  They have the 332nd-ranked strength of schedule while Arkansas is 44th.  We saw Vermont struggled when they stepped up in class in the non-conference with double-digit losses to both Maryland and Providence and upset losses to UNC-Greensboro and Oakland.  This will be by far their toughest test to date.

The Catamounts are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Razorbacks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vermont is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Vermont is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make less than 31% of their 3-pointers this season.  Arkansas is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana +3

The Indiana Hoosiers have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less to Purdue, Iowa and Rutgers.  So they haven't lost any of their last eight games against some great Big Ten teams by more than 3 points, and here they are catching 3 points against an overrated St. Mary's team from the WCC.

I love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as underdogs in a game they can win outright.  They have been through the gauntlet and showed their resolve in a 66-58 win over Wyoming in the First Four Tuesday.  I like the fact that they already have a game under their belts, and they also beat Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament before losing on a buzzer-beater to Iowa.  They are battle-tested in these win-or-go-home situations.

St. Mary's lost to three NCAA Tournament teams in the non-conference in Wisconsin, Colorado State and San Diego State.  I would argue Indiana is better than all those teams other than Wisconsin, and right now they may be playing better than the Badgers.  Indiana went 9-1 in non-conference play this season with its only loss coming by 2 points in OT at Syracuse.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  St. Mary's is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Gaels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as favorites.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* SDSU/Providence CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence -2

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are the world's most popular underdog this in the opening round to pull the upset.  We'll gladly fade that bias and take the value by backing 4th-seeded Providence as only a 2-point favorite over 13th-seeded South Dakota State in the Round of 64.

Providence has gotten no love all season.  Everyone has called them overrated but they just kept winning games, going 25-5 this season.  And here they basically just have to win to cover as slight 2-point favorites.  Providence gets after it defensively and ranks 32nd in adjusted offense, while the Jackrabbits rank a woeful 223rd in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State feasted on an easy conference and schedule.  While Providence played the 56th-toughest schedule, SDSU played the 249th.  They lost to Alabama by 16, Washington by 11, Idaho by 14 and Missouri State by 12 in the non-conference.  They also had several close wins in conference play.  This will be their toughest test of the season with perhaps the exception of that game against Alabama.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Providence) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Providence is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  Bet Providence Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Colorado State UNDER 137

Two of the slower teams in the country square off when Michigan faces Colorado State in the Round of 64 Thursday.  Colorado State ranks 280th in adjusted tempo while Michigan ranks 239th.  Both are in the Top 100 in adjusted defense as well.

One key here is that Michigan will be without one of its best guards in DaVante' Jones (10.4 PPG, 4.7 APG), who is out with a concussion.  He has been huge for them down the stretch scoring double-digits in seven of his last eight games, including 18 or more in three of his last five.

I like the matchup for Michigan's defense as well.  Hunter Dickinson is their best player and a force inside.  He will be able to slow down Colorado State's best player in David Roddy (17.5 PPG), who will struggle with the length of Dickinson and Diabate inside.

Colorado State is 17-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Rams are 10-1 UNDER after three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Wolverines last 15 NCAA Tournament games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rams last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Notre Dame/Rutgers First Four No-Brainer on UNDER 132

Two teams that play at slow tempos and play quality defense square off in Dayton, Ohio when Notre Dame plays Rutgers in the First Four Wednesday.  This should be one of the lowest scoring games of the tournament, and the books have set the bar too high by making this total 132 points.

Rutgers ranks 289th in the country in tempo and 43rd in adjusted defense.  Notre Dame ranks 250th in tempo and 84th in adjusted defense.  The Scarlet Knights struggle to score the ball, but they make up for it on the other end by playing lockdown defense.

Rutgers is 7-1 UNDER off a conference loss this season.  The Scarlet Knights are 18-9 UNDER in their last 27 games after going over the total in their previous game.  The UNDER is 13-2 in Fighting Irish last 15 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Scarlet Knights last seven games following a loss.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Nicholls State +15.5

SMU thought they were going to the NCAA Tournament.  It's safe to say they are disappointed they are playing in the NIT.  That's going to make it hard for them to cover this massive 15.5-point spread against Nicholls State because they are lacking the motivation to do so.

Nicholls State really impressed me with some of their non-conference results.  They upset Northern Iowa as 14.5-point road dogs, only lost by 13 at TCU as 13.5-point dogs, only lost by 3 at Wisconsin as 17.5-point dogs and only lost by 14 at Purdue as 29-point dogs.  If they could stay within 14 of all four of those teams on the road, they can certainly stay within 15.5 of SMU in this flat spot for the Mustangs.

SMU is 1-8 ATS in its last nine March games.  Nicholls State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after failing to cover three of its last four against the spread.  SMU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. good teams that win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Mustangs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Nicholls State Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -7.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 16-2 SU & 12-6 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per game.  They should be much more than 7.5-point favorites over Towson in the opening round of the NIT Wednesday night.

Towson has lost to ACC teams each of the last two seasons in the non-conference with a loss at Pittsburgh this season and a 35-point loss at Virginia last season.  Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh by 16 in its lone meeting this season.

Wake Forest is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after going over the total in each of its last two games this season.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as favorites this season.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

20* Indiana/Wyoming First Four No-Brainer on Indiana -3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers saved their best basketball for last.  It was impressive watching them go from outside the bubble of the NCAA Tournament to in by going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Their three losses all came by 3 points or less to Rutgers, at Purdue and on a neutral against Iowa.  They also won and covered against Maryland and Minnesota in the regular season and then upset both Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.  They lost on a buzzer-beater to Iowa, which is one of the hottest teams in the country.

Wyoming was fortunate to even make the NCAA Tournament, becoming the 4th team from the Mountain West to make it which seems absurd.  The Cowboys went 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in their final nine games.  Mountain West teams always struggles in the NCAA Tournament due to playing an easy schedule, while the Big Ten teams always do well due to playing such a tough regular season schedule.

The Hoosiers will have a big home-court advantage here with thousands of fans making the 2-hour, 45-minute trip from Bloomington to Dayton for the First Four.  Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 80 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland State +12.5

Xavier struggled down the stretch to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers went 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming against the Georgetown Hoyas, who went winless in Big East play this season.

They were on the bubble heading into the Big East Tournament and were promptly upset by Butler as 6.5-point underdogs.  The Musketeers had dreams of playing in the Big Dance and will be disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  That's why they should not be laying 12.5 points to Cleveland State in the opening round because they lack motivation.

This is a veteran Cleveland State team that made the NCAA Tournament last year and returned all five starters.  The Vikings will give the Musketeers a run for their money.  I was impressed with Cleveland State in several non-conference games.  They covered in a 10-point loss at BYU as 14.5-point dogs.  They also covered in a 5-point loss at Oklahoma State as 12.5-point dogs.

Xavier is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 March games.  The Vikings are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Cleveland State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Musketeers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with Cleveland State Tuesday.

15* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -3.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 17-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Belmont has been overvalued all season, especially down the stretch.  The Bruins went 1-8 ATS in their final nine games overall.  They struggled in the non-conference as well losing to Ohio by 12 and LSU by 30.

These teams have two common opponents.  Vanderbilt upset LSU as 75-66 as a 3-point home underdogs, while Belmont lost 53-83 at LSU.  Austin Peay is the other common opponent.  Belmont beat them twice by 8 and 14 points, while Vanderbilt beat them by 26.

Belmont is 0-6 ATS in its last six March games.  Vanderbilt is 7-0 ATS in its last seven tournament games.  The Commodores are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Commodores are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Iowa/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -2

This is an incredible 'buy low' spot on the Purdue Boilermakers after going 7-0-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are winning games but not covering big spreads. But now they are just 2-point favorites over Iowa and basically just have to win to cover in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Boilermakers will have the rest advantage here playing their 3rd game in 3 days while the Hawkeyes will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. This is a great 'sell high' spot on the Hawkeyes, who have gone 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Purdue has won both meetings with Iowa this season. They won 77-70 at home as 13-point favorites but were up 20-plus points in that game before a late comeback by the Hawkeyes. They won 83-73 on the road as 2-point favorites. And now they are only 2-point favorites on a neutral, showing how much respect Iowa is getting right now. The Boilermakers are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings and their domination of the Hawkeyes continues today. Bet Purdue Sunday.

20* Richmond/Davidson Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on Davidson -3.5

The Davidson Wildcats are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by double-digits. Their lone loss came at Dayton in the regular season finale in a meaningless game for them after already having the Atlantic 10 title wrapped up.

They have gotten back to playing to their potential in the Atlantic 10 Tournament with blowout wins over Fordham by 18 and St. Louis by 15. They will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, but since they won in blowouts they should still be fresh today.

Meanwhile, Richmond will be playing its 4th game in 4 days. The Spiders can't possibly have much left in the tank after needing double-digit second half comebacks to beat both Rhode Island and Dayton. Their luck runs out today against the best team in the Atlantic 10.

Davidson is 10-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Davidson won 87-84 at Richmond in their lone meeting this season. Bet Davidson Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Memphis/SMU UNDER 142.5

The first two meetings between Memphis and SMU went well UNDER this 142.5-point total. The books have set the bar too high today as this 3rd and final meeting will finish well UNDER this total again.

SMU won 70-62 on the road at Memphis for just 132 combined points. SMU then beat Memphis 73-57 at home for just 130 combined points. In fact, each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 132 or fewer combined points.

SMU is 6-0 UNDER following a conference win by 10 points or more this season. Memphis is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 games when revenging a loss. The UNDER is 17-5 in Memphis' last 22 neutral site games as a favorite. The UNDER is 10-4 in Mustangs last 14 games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Richmond/Dayton Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on Dayton -2

The Dayton Flyers have saved their best basketball for last. They are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only losses both coming on the road. They also won on the road at VCU and at Richmond while beating Davidson at home as well.

The Flyers have the rest advantage in this game after receiving a bye into the quarterfinals and then beating UMass yesterday. Meanwhile, Richmond will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two hard-fought wins over Rhode Island and VCU. The Spiders won't have much left in the tank for the Flyers today.

Dayton won 55-53 at Richmond in their lone meeting this season to improve to 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The one-sided nature of this series will continue today due to the rest advantage for the Flyers. Take Dayton Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Davidson -3

The Davidson Wildcats have the advantage of only having to play one game thus far in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and it was a 74-56 blowout win over Fordham. They should still be fresh and ready to go.

Meanwhile, St. Louis will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after a hard-fought 57-56 win over St. Bonaventure yesterday. The Billikens won't have nearly as much left in the tank as the Wildcats will for this game, and it's an early start time at 1:00 EST adding to their advantage.

Davidson beat St. Louis 79-58 in their lone meeting with this season to improve to 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. The Wildcats are 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits. Their lone loss came at Dayton in the regular season finale in a meaningless game for them as they already had the A-10 regular season title wrapped up.

Davidson is 7-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season. Bet Davidson Saturday.

15* UCF/Memphis AAC ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -6.5

The Memphis Tigers have played their way from way out of the NCAA Tournament to at least on the bubble at a minimum by playing up to their massive potential down the stretch. They have gone 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall with two upset wins over Houston by double-digits.

Now the Tigers have earned a bye into this round and will be fresh and ready to go. They play a UCF team that struggled to beat a bad South Florida team 60-58 yesterday as 8-point favorites. The rest and preparation advantage is heavily in the Tigers' favor here.

Memphis beat UCF 88-60 in their most recent meeting to improve to 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs. UCF is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Memphis Friday.

20* Penn State/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -8.5

Give Penn State credit for making it to the quarterfinals by winning two games over Minnesota (60-51) and upsetting Ohio State 71-68 with a big second half comeback. Unfortunately, the Nittany Lions are going to run out of gas today and have to play arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Purdue.

Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have been sitting on a double-bye and will be playing their first game of the Big Ten Tournament. They will be motivated after a poor finish to the regular season, and I look for them to put it on the fatigued Nittany Lions today.

Purdue is 12-1 SU in its last 13 meetings with Penn State. Plays against neutral court underdogs (Penn State) - off two straight conference wins against an opponent that is off a close home win by 3 points or less are 42-17 (71.2%) ATS since 1997. The Boilermakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral court games as a favorite. Take Purdue Friday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -11

After crushing Georgia Wednesday, Vanderbilt overcame a double-digit deficit in the second half to beat Alabama 82-76 Thursday. Now the Commodores will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days and won't have much left in the tank.

Meanwhile, Kentucky received a double-bye into this round and has a massive rest advantage because of it. Look for the Wildcats to put it on the Commodores and win this game going away.

The Wildcats have won 12 consecutive meetings with the Commodores. Vanderbilt is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games as an underdog. Take Kentucky Friday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on VCU -2.5

Richmond needed a 14-point comeback at halftime to beat Rhode Island 64-59 yesterday. The Spiders used a lot of energy for that comeback, and now they won't have much left in the tank for VCU today.

Meanwhile, the VCU Rams earned a bye into this round and will be playing their first Atlantic 10 Tournament game. They have the rest advantage, and they will put Richmond's fatigue to the test with their pressure defense. Look for the Spiders to make more mistakes than normal here.

VCU won both meetings with Richmond this season to improve to 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Spiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Richmond is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after two straight games giving up nine or fewer offensive rebounds. Roll with VCU Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Bonaventure ML +100

St. Bonaventure is on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They made the big dance last year by winning the Atlantic 10 and returned all five starters. This veteran bunch came up clutch down the stretch by going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their final nine games.

Their lone loss came to VCU on the road without their best player, but he returned in a 72-65 win over Richmond in the season finale. The Bonnies are at full strength and own St. Louis, winning 68-61 on the road and 83-79 at home in their two meetings this season.

Now the Bonnies have the advantage of getting a bye into this round while Saint Louis has to play La Salle yesterday. The Bonnies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as favorites, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as a neutral court favorite or PK. Bet St. Bonaventure on the money line Friday.

20* Indiana/Illinois Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Illinois -5

Indiana needed a massive comeback yesterday to beat Michigan. That effort will have taken a lot out of the Hoosiers, and they won't have much left in the tank for Illinois today.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are sitting on a double-bye after earning the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They have the rest advantage and will put it to use here against the Hoosiers with a blowout victory.

Illinois crushed Indiana 74-57 as 2-point road favorites in their lone meeting this season to improve to 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. The Hoosiers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Illinois) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1997. Bet Illinois Friday.

15* MWC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego State -4

Fresno State needed overtime to beat a very bad San Jose State 69-67 as 13.5-point favorites yesterday. It was the continuance of poor play from the Bulldogs down the stretch as they fell to 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.

Now the Bulldogs won't have much left in the tank for San Diego State, which earned a bye to this round and is playing for its NCAA Tournament life. The Aztecs came up clutch down the stretch by going 9-1 SU in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming to the top seed in the Mountain West in Boise State by a single point on the road.

Look for the great play of the Aztecs to continue here with a win and cover against a Fresno State team they beat twice this season to improve to 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five wins by 9 points or more.

The Bulldogs are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games. The Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with San Diego State Thursday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Connecticut -2

The Connecticut Huskies were playing as well as anyone in the Big East down the stretch. They went 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Creighton by 2 points.

One of those wins came 70-65 over Seton Hall and I believe we are getting the Huskies at a discount as only 2-point favorites here in the rematch. They have the rest advantage having a bye into this round while Seton Hall was tooth and nail with Georgetown yesterday in a 57-53 win.

That's a Hoyas team that went 0-20 in Big East play this season. The Pirates are now 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as favorites. Roll with UConn Thursday.

15* Penn State/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -5

We are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount today after going just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They had a bye into this round while Penn State had to play yesterday in a 60-51 win over Minnesota.

That rest advantage will lead the Buckeyes to a win and cover here. Plus they will be motivated from that poor finish to the regular season. And they have won both meetings with Penn State by 12 and 5 points this season to improve to 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.

The Buckeyes are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Penn State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers. Take Ohio State Thursday.

15* C-USA Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Middle Tennessee -3

Middle Tennessee earned a bye with a 13-5 SU & 12-5-1 ATS record in Conference USA play this season. The Blue Raiders should be bigger favorites today over UTEP, which had to play yesterday in a 74-64 win over Old Dominion.

Middle Tennessee rolled to a 77-59 home victory as a 5-point favorite in its lone meeting with UTEP this season. It should be more of the same here with the rest advantage for a Blue Raiders team that likes to get up and down and will test UTEP's fatigue.

Middle Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after two straight games with 12 or fewer assists this season. UTEP is 0-6 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season. The Miners are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games as underdogs. The Blue Raiders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites. Middle Tennessee is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games overall. Bet Middle Tennessee Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond -3.5

Rhode Island was in a 79-77 dog fight with Duquesne as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday. Now the Rams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here while Richmond comes in off a bye and playing its first game of the Atlantic 10 Tournament.

That rest advantage will lead the Spiders to an easy win and cover against a Rhode Island team that has been struggling for weeks. The Rams are just 3-11 SU in their last 14 games overall with two of those wins coming against Duquesne. 

Richmond won 70-63 as a 2.5-point road favorite in its lone meeting with Rhode Island this season to improve to 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Rhode Island is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven March games. Roll with Richmond Thursday.

15* VA Tech/Notre Dame ACC ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame PK

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 15-5 in ACC play this season to earn this double-bye. They are one of the most underrated teams in the country, and they should be favored over Virginia Tech given their rest advantage.

Virginia Tech needed overtime to beat Clemson yesterday at the buzzer. The Hokies won't have much left in the tank for the Fighting Irish today.

Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS in its last nine tournament games. Notre Dame is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Fighting Irish are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Notre Dame Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -7.5

The Miami Hurricanes went 22-9 this season and 14-6 SU & 14-6 ATS in ACC play this season to earn a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. That extra rest will come into play in a big way here against Boston College.

The Golden Eagles will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days while the Hurricanes will be playing their 1st game of the tournament. Not only that, but Boston College needed OT to beat Wake Forest yesterday. It's safe to say they will be running on fumes here and won't have much left in the tank for the Hurricanes.

Miami won 81-70 as a 4-point road favorite in its lone meeting with Boston College this season on March 2nd just a week ago. The Golden Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 80 points or more. Boston College is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Miami Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -7.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes played as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch. They went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games of the regular season with their lone loss coming 72-74 at Illinois as 4-point dogs. They gave that game away by missing a ton of free throws, which is uncharacteristic of them.

Now the Hawks are rested having a bye into this round while Northwestern had to play Nebraska yesterday. They needed a big comeback to win 71-69 against the Huskers. That big comeback will have taken a lot out of them, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Hawkeyes.

Iowa owned Northwestern 82-61 as a 10-point home favorite in their lone meeting this season. The Hawkeyes are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Wildcats with all four wins by 13 points or more. 

Iowa is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as favorites. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Bet Iowa Thursday.

15* Butler/Providence Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence -7.5

Providence went 24-4 this season with two losses to Villanova by 5 points or less. The Friars are legit, but they just don't get the respect they deserves.

Now the Friars have the rest advantage after having a bye into this round while Butler needed overtime to beat Xavier 89-82 yesterday. The Bulldogs won't have much left in the tank for the Friars today for this early start time game and quick turnaround.

The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Butler is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games as an underdog. The Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Bet Providence Thursday.

15* Utah/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington PK

The Washington Huskies have been solid down the stretch in going 7-6 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are better than Utah, and they proved that with a season sweep of the Utes.  They won 74-68 on the road and 77-73 at home.

Teams that win both regular season meetings go on to win the 3rd meeting in the conference tournament at a very high clip.  The Huskies face a Utes team that is just 3-15 SU & 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  The Huskies should be favored here by several points, so we are getting a discount on them at PK.

Utah is 0-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Washington is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Huskies are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  Take Washington Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -5

The Virginia Cavaliers are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and need to make a run in the ACC Tournament to get in. It starts with a win over Louisville, which they've already beaten twice by double-digits this season.

Virginia has the rest advantage here getting a bye in the second round. Louisville has no such luxury, beating Georgia Tech 84-74 in a shootout on Tuesday. They won't have much left in the tank for the Cavaliers today.

The Cardinals are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as underdogs. The Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites. The favorites is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Virginia Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona State -3.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils have quietly gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch and should be more than 3.5-point favorites against Stanford in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Stanford is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes a 56-65 road loss at Arizona State in the regular season finale.  This despite the Sun Devils shooting 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3-point range while the Cardinal shot 10-of-26 (38.5%).  Yet Arizona State still won by 9 points, and I believe a blowout is in store here.  Bet Arizona State Wednesday.

15* NC State/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4.5

The Clemson Tigers played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games overall with upset wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, two NCAA Tournament contenders.  They also beat Boston College by 10 on the road and Georgia Tech at home.

Now the Tigers should stay hot against an NC State team that is just ready for their season to be over.  The Wolfpack have gone 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with four straight losses by 8 points or more.  They lost by 8 to Boston College at home, by 10 to UNC at home, by 25 to Wake Forest on the road and by 13 to Florida State on the road.

Clemson won 70-65 at NC State in their lone meeting this season.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  NC State is 1-13 ATS after a game with 9 or fewer assists this season.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game. NC State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These five trends combine for a 42-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland State ML -105

This veteran Cleveland State team that won the Horizon League Tournament last year and returned all five starters this year is likely to win the tournament again.  They have to get by Wright State, and I like their chances considering they are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Wright State this season with a 10-point home win and a 4-point road win.

Teams that win the first two meetings of the season go on to win the 3rd meeting in the conference tournament at a very high clip.  It's well over 70% of the time, and getting the Vikings as a PK here is an absolute gift, especially since they are a veteran team and own the Raiders.

Cleveland State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following two consecutive games where their opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Raiders are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a win.  Wright State is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Cleveland State Monday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State -6

It's safe to say the Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a victory today.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them as four of those losses came on the road and a narrow home loss to Illinois.  They also upset Purdue at home for their lone victory.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Maryland Terrapins.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three of those wins coming at home and the other being a road win at Nebraska, the worst team in the Big Ten.  Their lone loss came by 10 points at Indiana.

It's Senior Day and the Spartans are playing to assure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.  We'll get a big effort from them today, and it should be enough to cover this 6-point spread against a Maryland team that knows it will need to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the big dance as the Terrapins sit at 15-15 this season.

Plays on favorites (Michigan State) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Terrapins are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  

Note that the Spartans were 3.5-point road favorites at Maryland in their first meeting this season and are now 6-point home favorites, only a 2.5-point adjustment for home-court advantage which isn't big enough.  There's clearly value on the home team today based on recency bias.  Roll with Michigan State Sunday.

20* Loyola-Chicago/Drake MVC Championship No-Brainer on Loyola-Chicago -4.5

Loyola-Chicago has barely had to break a sweat in dismantling Bradley 66-50 and Northern Iowa 66-43 the last two days to coast into the MVC Championship Game.  They also got to play the early game yesterday and watch Drake play the late game, adding to their rest advantage.

Meanwhile, Drake is coming off a 79-78 (OT) win over Missouri State yesterday in the late game.  They just lost G D.J. Wilkins (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending injury and will be short-handed.  I don't give them much of a chance of even keeping this game competitive.

That's especially the case with the Ramblers playing with double-revenge after shockingly losing both regular season meetings to the Bulldogs.  Wilkins had 26 points combined in those two victories and will be missed here.

Drake is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Drake is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games as an underdog.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Ramblers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  Take Loyola-Chicago Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas A&M -2

The Texas A&M Aggies have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three straight wins by double-digits.  That includes an 87-71 road win at Alabama as 10-point underdogs to improve to 19-11 this season.

Now the Aggies want to continue making their case with a home win on Senior Day against the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs.  The Bulldogs are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament.  They are coming off an OT home loss to Auburn in which they blew a late lead, and I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat here.

Texas A&M is 12-4 at home this season while Mississippi State is just 1-8 SU in true road games with its lone win coming at lowly Missouri by 2 points.  The Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +13

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Georgetown Hoyas and their 6-23 record which includes an 0-18 mark in Big East play.  That's why it has been a great time to 'buy low' on the Hoyas here down the stretch and they have rewarded backers for doing so.

Indeed, the Hoyas are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with losses at Marquette by 11, at Villanova by 8, to DePaul at home by 3, to UConn at home by 9 and at Seton Hall by 5.  Those are some of the best teams in the Big East and the Hoyas took them all to the wire.

Now the Hoyas are catching 13 points against a struggling Xavier team that is feeling the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with two losses to St. John's by 15 and 13 points, an 11-point road loss at UConn and a 16-point home loss to Seton Hall.  They have no business being this heavily favored today.

Each of the last nine meetings between Xavier and Georgetown have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Hoyas pertaining to this 13-point spread.  TheMusketeers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -2.5

After dropping four of their last six games to fall to 23-7 this season, the Wyoming Cowboys will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they host the Fresno State Bulldogs.  They really need this win to lock up their spot in the NCAA Tournament, and they'll be highly motivated to get it at home on Senior Day in front of a great crowd.

Wyoming is 13-1 at home this season and winning by 15.6 points per game.  With that home record, we are getting the Cowboys pretty cheap here given the circumstances.  They face a struggling Fresno State team that is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with the two wins coming against Air Force and New Mexico.

Wyoming is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after losing four or five of its last six games.  Fresno State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference road loss.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Wyoming Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on East Carolina +10

Wichita State has no business being a double-digit favorite against East Carolina Saturday.  The Shockers have just one win in their last 14 games by more than 10 points.  They sit at 15-12 this season and simply want to get onto the AAC Tournament and won't be that motivated to put away the Pirates by margin.

East Carolina is playing some of its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  The Pirates have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes upset road wins over both Tulsa and South Florida and a 3-point loss at UCF as 9-point dogs in their three road games during this stretch.

East Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Wichita State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a win.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +8

Louisiana Tech is simply catching too many points today against the UAB Blazers.  The Bulldogs are 21-8 this season with just two losses by double-digits.  They don't lose by margin often, and they won't be losing by margin Saturday.

The Bulldogs want revenge from a 76-83 home loss to UAB in which the Blazers went 12-of-24 (50%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bulldogs just took the best team in C-USA to the wire in North Texas in a 49-56 road loss.  They can certainly hang with UAB in this spot.

Louisiana Tech is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Bulldogs are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 60 points or less in their previous game.  The Blazers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +3

Oklahoma State will serve a postseason ban this season.  They won't even be able to play in the Big 12 Tournament.  That means this will be the final game of the season for the Cowboys Saturday as they host Texas Tech.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory to close out their campaign.

Coach Mike Boynton has been impressed with his team and how they have handled themselves this season knowing they wouldn't be playing in the postseason.  And they have clearly been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch knowing their season is about over.

Oklahoma State beat Kansas State at home then lost to Baylor by 2 at home in OT.  They went on the road and went to OT against Oklahoma before falling in another heartbreaker.  I expected them to be flat against Iowa State, but they put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a 53-36 road win as 4-point dogs.

Oklahoma State is a poor man's Texas Tech as they play great defense and struggle on offense at times.  I think they can beat the Red Raiders, who lost outright at TCU and struggled to beat Kansas State at home in their last two games.  The Red Raiders aren't going to win the Big 12 so they don't have a lot to play in this regular season finale.

Oklahoma State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -3

The Virginia Cavaliers are trying to make the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch and into the ACC Tournament.  This is a must-win game for them against the Louisville Cardinals after losing back-to-back heartbreakers against Duke by 4 and Florida State by 1 at the buzzer.

But the Cavaliers have now had a week off having last played on February 26th.  They will be rested and ready to go and fully focused and prepared to take down this struggling Louisville team on Saturday.

The Cardinals are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone win coming at home against Clemson.  They appear to have quit in their last two games by losing to Wake Forest by 22 and Virginia Tech by 32.  I think getting the Cavaliers as short 3-point favorites here is a gift.

Louisville is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Virginia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  The Cardinals are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley/Loyola-Chicago UNDER 131.5

The MVC Tournament is known for UNDERS due to the poor shooting back ground in St. Louis.  This is my favorite UNDER of all four games in the tournament today between Bradley and Loyola-Chicago because they are two of the best defensive teams in the conference and play at slow tempos.

Loyola-Chicago ranks 316th in adjusted tempo while Bradley ranks 174th.  The Ramblers rank 49th in defensive efficiency while the Braves rank 60th.  These teams combined for 132 points at the end of regulation in their first meeting and 129 points in their 2nd meeting this season and both shot well at 43.1% or better in both games.  I think this 3rd and final meeting will be the lowest scoring yet.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Braves last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 24-7 in Braves last 31 Friday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Ramblers last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.