Winning Sports Picks

20* Oakland/Cleveland State ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland State -2

The Cleveland State Vikings improved to 18-7 SU & 16-8-1 ATS on the season after their come from behind win over Milwaukee 71-65 in the semifinals.  The way they won that game in comeback fashion after beating Fort Wayne in OT has them brimming with confidence and ready to win the Horizon League Championship and punch their spot in the big dance.

I actually think they take a step down in competition here against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, who are 12-17 SU this season.  The Golden Grizzlies are one of the worst teams you will ever see in a conference title game.

Cleveland State went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Oakland this season, winning and covering both meetings on the road.  Now they should make it a clean 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS sweep of the Golden Grizzlies here on a neutral Tuesday night.

The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  The Vikings are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as favorites.  Cleveland State is 12-0 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make less than 42% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  Bet Cleveland State Tuesday.

20* Pepperdine/BYU ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Pepperdine +9

Pepperdine beat Santa Clara 78-70 as 4-point favorites on Saturday in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament.  They now have a day off in between games and there should be no rust factor with them tonight.

I think there could be a rust factor here for BYU.  The Cougars got a bye into the semifinals and haven't played since February 27th.  They have had the last eight days off now.  At the very least, I expect them to get off to a slow start in this game, which is going to make it difficult for them to win by double-digits and cover this spread.

After losing 54-65 as 11-point underdogs at BYU and shooting just 28.8% as a team, the Waves got their revenge at home in the rematch.  They pulled the 76-73 upset as 6.5-point home dogs over the Cougars despite shooting just 3-of-16 (18.7%) from 3-point range.  So they've proven they can play with BYU twice despite poor shooting.  And just a slight improvement in that department could have them winning this game outright again.

The Waves are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Pepperdine is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Waves are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Pepperdine is 24-11-2 ATS in its last 37 neutral site games as an underdog.  Bet Pepperdine Monday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +8.5

You can pretty much throw out Michigan State's 50-69 loss at Michigan last time out.  The Spartans shot 36.4% as a team including 0-for-9 (0%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

Now the Spartans want revenge against their biggest rivals here and to prove that they are a much better team than they showed on Thursday.  After all, the Spartans had gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games with upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State.

Now the Spartans get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will make a huge difference.  Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, including those upset wins over Illinois (81-72) as 6.5-point dogs and Ohio State (71-67) as 4-point dogs.  I don't see Michigan being as motivated in the rematch after just beating them by 19, so that letdown factor will help us get the cover here too.

The Spartans are 54-23-3 ATS in their last 80 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Michigan State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Michigan.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +8

The Baylor Bears have been overvalued since returning from a three-week COVID break.  The Bears are 1-3 ATS in their last four games since returning.  They only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost to Kansas by 13 as 4.5-point favorites and failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites against Oklahoma State.  Their only cover was an overtime win as 3.5-point favorites at West Virginia, so they should be 0-4 ATS.

I'll gladly fade the Bears again here as they continue to be overvalued as 8-point home favorites over Texas Tech.  This is a Red Raiders team improving rapidly down the stretch under one of the best head coaches in the country in Chris Beard.  And you know they are going to want revenge from a 60-68 home loss to the Bears earlier this season.

Texas Tech is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with a 9-point win over Texas as 3.5-point favorites, a 20-point win over TCU as 13-point favorites and a 27-point win over Iowa State as 17.5-point favorites.  It has been hard to get margin on the Red Raiders as they have only been beaten by more than 8 points once in their last 22 games overall.  That makes for a 21-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread.  Take Texas Tech Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +10.5

The Memphis Tigers (15-6) are trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Houston today would cement their spot in the Big Dance.  And they have been playing well enough here down the stretch to give the Cougars all they can handle.

The Tigers are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to SMU 65-67.  Six of those nine wins have come by double-digits.  They have the confidence right now to hang with Houston.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cougars.  While the Tigers are getting zero respect here for what they have done recently, the Cougars are getting a ton of respect for their recent results.  They just beat Cincinnati by 38, WKU by 24 and USF by 36 in their last three games coming in with three straight covers.  They aren't going to get that kind of margin on this much better Memphis squad.

Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Memphis has just one loss to Houston by double-digits in the last 16 meetings, making for a 15-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Memphis Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +12.5

The Creighton Bluejays are going through some turmoil right now with head coach Doug McDermott using the word plantation recently.  He said it following their 69-77 loss to Xavier two games ago, and they proceeded to trail by as many as 22 points in a 60-72 loss to Villanova in their last game.  McDermott has since offered to resign.

I just don't trust the state of this Bluejays' team right now, and they certainly shouldn't be laying 12.5 points to a Butler team that already beat them 70-66 at home earlier this season as 7-point dogs.  So now the Bluejays are 12.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment that is not warranted.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are coming off two straight upset wins over Seton Hall (61-52) as 7.5-point dogs and Villanova (73-61) as 11.5-point dogs.  And they've been off since February 28th, so they are rested and ready to go.  Creighton just played on March 3rd and has only two days to get ready for this game.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Butler) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Take Butler Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2

Ohio State is my favorite play of the entire 2020-21 college basketball season Saturday.  I just love the spot for them.  I know they are going to put forth their best effort of the season after coming in off three consecutive losses.  They hadn't even lost two in a row at any other point this season until now.

So it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Buckeyes off those three straight losses, and a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois off three consecutive wins and covers.  The last two were in upset fashion as they won at Wisconsin and at Michigan despite not having their best player in Ayo Dosunmu (21 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG).  He is likely to be out again for this game as the Fighting Illini already have the No. 2 seed locked up in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State has a lot to play for here as it is battling with Purdue for 4th place in the Big Ten, and the top for teams all get double-byes in the Big Ten Tournament.  It's also Senior Day for the Buckeyes.  And they are the more rested team having five days to get ready for this game since last losing to Iowa on February 28th.  Illinois only has three days to get ready after beating Michigan on March 2nd.  That win over Michigan, coupled with being locked into the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, has the Fighting Illini primed for a letdown today.

The extra rest was needed for the Buckeyes.  "Our whole team needs rest and we've got to get healthy," head coach Chris Holtmann said. "We had basically a third of our team that wasn't able to really practice much at all last week, or at least very limited.  We've got to get as much as we can, get healthy and back to practicing and then move forward and recognize and own those things we've got to get done better collectively."

Senior forward Kyle Young returned from injury for the Iowa game but wasn't at his best.  He should be much sharper with the extra time to get ready for this game.  Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last five meetings with Illinois, including an 87-81 road win in their first meeting this season.  Illinois is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when revenging an upset loss as a favorite.  The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  Ohio State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Providence UNDER 140

Villanova and Providence both prefer to play at slow tempos.  Both are elite defensive teams as well.  And both should struggle on offense today, especially Providence, which shoots just 43.4% as a team.  But they stay competitive by holding the opposition to 43.9% shooting and limiting possessions.

We saw that in their first meeting with Villanova this season.  Providence actually led 27-24 at halftime before getting their doors blown off in the second half.  The Wildcats pulled away for a 71-56 victory in a game that saw just 127 combined points.  Now this total has been set at 140 in the rematch, which is way too high.

That's especially the case when you consider Villanova just lost second-leading scorer Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) to a season-ending injury in their 72-60 win over Creighton last time out.  They'll have to rely even more on their defense moving forward if they are going to make a run in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.

Each of the last four meetings between Providence and Villanova have seen 135 or fewer combined points and an average of just 124.5 combined points per game.  That's 15.5 points less than this total of 140.  So the books have missed their mark badly here and we'll take advantage.  The UNDER is 23-7 in Friars last 30 games as home underdogs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -6.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three wins by double-digits and a 4-point win over Wisconsin as a 2-point favorite.

Indiana has gone the other direction, playing its way out of the NCAA Tournament by going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with all four losses by 6 points or more.  Things got worse for the Hoosiers recently with the loss of second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 45% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury.  The Hoosiers already rely too heavily on Jackson-Davis to get their offense, and now without Franklin (doubtful) that is even more the case.  Race Thompson (9.6 PPG) is also questionable for this one.

Purdue already beat Indiana 81-69 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with six of the last seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  And the Boilermakers won't have a letdown in the rematch.  They are trying to clinch the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten, meaning they'd get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament as each of the top four seeds are awarded one.  It's also Senior Day for the Boilermakers.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

20* Indiana State/Loyola-Chicago MVC No-Brainer on Indiana State +11

I cashed in Indiana State yesterday and I'm back on them for many of the same reasons.  This team just does not get the respect they deserves from oddsmakers and hasn't been for a few months now.

While Loyola-Chicago and Drake grab all the headlines in the Missouri Valley, it's Indiana State that has been just as good as both here down the stretch.  The Sycamores are 11-2 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  And prior to this stretch they upset Loyola-Chicago 76-71 as 8-point dogs and lost 48-58 as 8-point dogs in the rematch, so they've already proven they can play with the Ramblers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Ramblers due to being ranked in the Top 25 after going 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall.  But they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games with very few blowout victories in there.  That's with the exception of their 73-49 win over Southern Illinois yesterday, which they are being overvalued for.  Southern Illinois was missing its top two scorers and had no chance of even being competitive in that game.  This is a huge step up in class for the Ramblers today.

Indiana State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 60 points or fewer in its previous game.  The Sycamores are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Indiana State has lost just one of its last 18 games by more than 10 points, which was a 12-point loss in the season finale to Valpo after beating them by 15 the previous day.  They didn't care about that game, and they didn't have their best player in Tyreke Key (17.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who returned to score 19 points and grab nine boards against Evansville yesterday..  That makes for a 17-1 system backing the Sycamores pertaining to this 11-point spread.  Take Indiana State Saturday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have won five straight games and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have put together this streak under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  They are still a bubble team right now and that's why I'm not worried about them having a letdown following the big win over Duke on Tuesday.

Wake Forest has totally packed it in.  The Demon Deacons have lost six straight with each of the last five losses coming by 13 points or more.  They lost by 13 to Pitt, by 38 to Virginia Tech, by 21 to Clemson, by 18 to NC State and by 24 to Duke.  Those five losses have come by an average of 22.8 points per game.

Georgia Tech already beat Wake Forest 70-54 as a 9-point home favorite in their first meeting this season.  The Yellow Jackets are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Demon Deacons.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Bet Georgia Tech Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Indiana State -5

Loyola-Chicago and Drake get all the headlines in the Missouri Valley.  But Indiana State has quietly been one of the most dominant teams in the conference here down the stretch.  And they should make easy work of Evansville in their conference tournament opener Friday afternoon.

The Sycamores are 10-2 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those games were against Evansville.  They won 76-70 at Evansville and 87-73 at home in the rematch.  And now they are laying just 5 points here against the Purple Aces.

While the Sycamores are surging right now, the Purple Aces are just 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  All seven of those losses came by 6 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive as well.

Indiana State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 60 points or less.  Evansville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Sycamores are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Indiana State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5

The UCF Knights are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only losses came by a combined 2 points with one-point losses to both Cincinnati (68-69) and Wichita State (60-61), which is how close they are to being on a seven-game winning streak.

Now the Knights should make easy work of an East Carolina team coming off nearly a month layoff due to COVID.  Of course they are going to be rusty having last played on February 8th.  This athletic Knights team will test their conditioning from the first tip.

UCF won 71-64 at home over East Carolina in the first meeting this season to improve 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings with all 10 wins coming by 3 points or more.  East Carolina is 0-7 ATS when attempting to revenge a road loss this season.  Enough said.  Bet UCF Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +17.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten down the stretch.  They are making big strides under Fred Hoiberg, one of the best coaches in the country.  He is proving his coaching chops with this team down the stretch.

Indeed, the Huskers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over Penn State as 11-point road dogs, Minnesota as 2.5-point home dogs and Rutgers (by 21) as 8-point dogs.  They also covered in an 8-point loss at Maryland as 10.5-point dogs, in a 3-point loss to Penn State as 6.5-point dogs and in a 5-point overtime loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs.  Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 14 games by more than 18 points, and any of its last 10 games by more than 17 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.

Iowa is way overvalued now after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall, including a shocking 73-57 win at Ohio State as underdogs last time out.  Now this is a sandwich spot for them coming off two straight games against Michigan (lost by 22) and Ohio State, and with huge rival Wisconsin on deck Sunday.  I don't expect the Hawkeyes to play with the kind of effort needed to put away Nebraska by 18-plus points tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Nebraska) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are 42-18 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Nebraska Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +12

I've been riding this Michigan State train and I'm not about to stop now as the books have undervalued them yet again here Thursday as 12-point underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines.  This is simply too many points for a Spartans team that is once again improving late in the season under Tom Izzo, which seems to happen every year.

Fighting to make the NCAA Tournament, the Spartans have come through in a big way in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State as underdogs as well as a second win over Indiana.  Now they are ready to take on a team like Michigan.

The Wolverines showed they were vulnerable last game by losing 53-76 at home to Illinois as 8.5-point favorites.  That was an Illinois team playing without Ayo Dosunmu, their best player.  Michigan State recently beat Illinois with Dosunmu in the lineup 81-72 as 6.5-point home dogs.  Now Michigan would be without its best player in Isaiah Livers (14.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG), who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered in that loss to Illinois.

The Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan.  They haven't lost any of the last seven meetings by more than 11 points, making for a 7-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 12-point spread.  They won't go down without a fight tonight.  Roll with Michigan State Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +12

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be catching 12 points from Baylor.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma (twice).  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.

Now they take on a Baylor team that just hasn't been playing well since returning from a three-week COVID pause.  The Bears only beat Iowa State by 5 as 24-point favorites, lost outright by 13 at Kansas as 4.5-point favorites, and were fortunate to win by 5 at West Virginia in overtime and cover the 3.5-point spread last time out.

Now the Bears in a very tough spot here as they have had just one day to get ready for Oklahoma State.  They had to travel all the way from West Virginia on Tuesday night back to Baylor.  So they are going to be a tired team, especially after needing OT to beat West Virginia.  It's hard to imagine they will be in great shape physically after that COVID pause already, which has played a big role in their recent struggles.

Oklahoma State comes in on two days' rest and highly motivated for revenge after letting the first meeting with Baylor get away from them late in the 2nd half, turning a close game into a 15-point loss.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Plays on road teams (Oklahoma State) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against an opponent that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* UCLA/Oregon ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5

Oregon has come out the other side of their early COVID problems and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road at USC.  This run has put themselves in position to win the Pac-12 and steal the title from UCLA with wins in their final two regular season games.

UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall and faltering here down the stretch.  The Bruins choked in their last game with a 61-70 loss at Colorado, blowing a 57-55 lead with 8:11 remaining.  They couldn't handle the pressure of trying to win the Pac-12 in that game, and I don't expect them to handle it very well here at Oregon either.

The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings in this series, including a 96-75 home win for Oregon over UCLA last year.  The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  UCLA is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Ducks are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Oregon is 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Oregon Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -4

This looks like the perfect spot to back Villanova.  We will 'buy low' on the Wildcats after they just lost outright to Butler as an 11.5-point favorite.  They had beaten St. John's and Connecticut by a combined 31 points in their two games prior.  

So the lost to Butler was clearly an aberration.  The Wildcats were probably looking ahead to this game against Creighton.  They want revenge on the Bluejays in a big way.  They lost 70-86 at Creighton on February 13th about three weeks ago.  Everything went right for Creighton in that game as they shot 59.3% from the field and 46.2% from 3-point range compared to just 37.5% shooting for Villanova.  That's not going to happen again.

Villanova is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 16.1 points per game.  Creighton is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games, including an 8-point loss at Xavier last time out.  The Wildcats are 35-15-2 ATS int heir last 52 games following an ATS loss.

It's also worth noting Creighton is dealing with some turmoil within their program.  Head coach Doug McDermott used the word 'plantation' while ripping his team and had to come out and apologize for it.  At the very least it's a distraction they don't need right now.  At the most it will have caused some chemistry issues.  Either way I love the spot for the Wildcats.  Take Villanova Wednesday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Purdue -2

The Purdue Boilermakers are 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Two of their losses came by a combined 4 points on the road while the other was a home loss to Michigan, which is the best team in the Big Ten.

Now the Boilermakers have their sights set on a Wisconsin team that is struggling mightily to score the basketball right now.  The Badgers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They haven't topped 69 points in any of their last six games, and they have been held to 72 or fewer points in 13 consecutive games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Purdue is 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being Purdue's upset win at Wisconsin a few years back.

Wisconsin is 1-7 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Take Purdue Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -2.5

The Michigan State Spartans are making a run at the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite being underdogs in all four games.  They upset both Illinois and Ohio State at home during this stretch.

The other win was a 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs.  That line was way off, and this line still is off with the Spartans being only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  The Spartans are surging right now, while the Hoosiers are falling flat on their faces under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament.

Indeed, Indiana is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  Its only win during this stretch came at home against Minnesota, which remains winless in Big Ten play.  They lost by 19 at Ohio State, by 7 at home to Michigan State, by 11 at Rutgers and by 16 at home to Michigan.

Trayce Jackson-Davis had 34 points against Michigan State in that first meeting, and it still wasn't enough.  That's because he just doesn't have much help on the perimeter.  And making matters worse is the fact that the Hoosiers just lost their best guard in Armaan Franklin (11.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to an ankle injury, and he will be out tonight.  They will miss his 45% shooting from 3-point range as none of their other regulars shoot it better than 39%.

Michigan State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Indiana with 15 of those wins coming by 3 points or more.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets want revenge from a 68-75 loss at Duke on January 26th.  I like their chances of getting that revenge at home this time around when you consider how well they are playing right now, plus the fact that they simply do not lose at home.

The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only loss came on the road by 2 as 4-point dogs at Clemson.  They have since won four straight with 6 and 7-point home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, respectively, plus blowout road wins over Miami by 27 and Virginia Tech by 16.

Duke suffered a crushing overtime loss to Louisville last time out on February 27th.  They had won four straight against a pretty soft schedule prior to that.  Now they have almost no chance of making the NCAA tournament with that Louisville defeat without making a run in the ACC Tournament.

The task is a very tall one here for the Blue Devils, who hit the road and face a Georgia Tech team that is 13-1 SU in its last 14 ACC home games.  It's a veteran Yellow Jackets team that is highly motivated to make the NCAA Tournament.  This senior-laden team is primed for one of their best performances of the season here on Senior Night.

Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following three or more consecutive wins.  Duke is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Blue Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Air Force +19

Air Force will be out for revenge from a 49-72 road loss at Colorado on Saturday.  That was a 41-46 game with just under 10 minutes to play, so it turned from a 5-point game into a 23-point game in the final 10 minutes.  I know because I had Air Force +18 and it was a tough beat.

But I'm back on the Falcons today in the rematch.  I was surprised to see Colorado State shoot so well in their first game back from a three-week COVID pause.  That shot 61% from the field and 9-of-22 (40.9%) from 3-point range.  That's the kind of effort it took for them to cover that massive number.

Conversely, Air Force shot just 41.5% as a team and 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range.  They are a better shooting team than that as they make 34.2% from 3-point range on the season and should improve in that department.  Just a slight improvement shooting and slightly worse effort from the Rams in the shooting department will have the Falcons covering this 19-point spread tonight.

Air Force is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games after a game with 16 or fewer rebounds.  That first meeting was a very low-possession game as both teams attempted only 41 shots.  Low-possession games definitely favor the underdog and make it tougher for the favorite to cover lofty spreads like this one.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Air Force) after going under the total by 24 points or more in thier last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 30 or more points in their last five game sure 80-36 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Air Force Monday.

15* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -1.5

The Oklahoma Sooners will be out for revenge from a 90-94 (OT) loss to Oklahoma State Saturday.  They don't have to wait long to get their revenge here as they get to face the rival Cowboys just two days later.  I think the Sooners will be the more motivated team and will get the job done tonight.

The Sooners had won eight of their previous nine games before losing their last two.  The Cowboys have won four straight now and will be feeling fat and happy after beating the Sooners on Saturday.  And I like the line value on the Sooners based on line from the first meeting.  Oklahoma goes from being a 6-point home favorite to a 1.5-point road favorite in the rematch.

The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after three or more consecutive wins.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Sooners.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

20* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are on their first two-game losing streak of the entire season.  They lost to Michigan and Michigan State by a combined nine points their last two games while letting both games slip away late.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory here at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

While I believe Ohio State is absolutely legit and one of the best teams in the country, the Iowa Hawkeyes are frauds.  They rely too much on one player in Luka Garza, and they always seem to fade late in the season.  That has been the case again this season as they have gone just 5-5 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are coming off a 22-point loss at Michigan.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is that they just lost backup center Jack Nunge (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury in that loss to Michigan.  He was huge for this team in backing up Garza because he's always in foul trouble.  The Buckeyes should be able to expose an already soft Iowa defense today.

They did just that in their 89-85 road win at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare road win in this series as the home team had won and covered four straight meetings prior.  The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home meetings with Iowa with their last two wins coming by 20 and 18 points.

Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Hawkeyes are 20-41-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Ohio State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games as a home favorite.  The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Michigan State +3

The Michigan State Spartans always seem to improve down the stretch under Tom Izzo.  And they have been doing the same this season as they try and get themselves into the NCAA Tournament field.  This team is playing inspired basketball right now and is exactly the type of team I want to continue backing.

Indeed, the Spartans are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an upset 78-71 win at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs, an upset 82-71 home win over Illinois as 6.5-point dogs and an upset 71-67 home win over Ohio State as 4-point dogs.

Now the Spartans face their weakest opponent in a long time here in Maryland, a team they should be favored against.  The Terrapins are just 14-10 this season.  But they are starting to get respect from oddsmakers due to a four-game winning streak against the bottom of the conference.  They have wins over Nebraska (twice), Minnesota and Rutgers during this stretch.  This is a step up in class here against a Michigan State team that is playing its best basketball of the season.

Michigan State 7-2 SU in its last nine meetings with Maryland with the two losses coming by 3 and 7 points.  The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs.  The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Terrapins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a road game.  Take Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +25

Gonzaga is overvalued right now due to its No. 1 ranking and undefeated 23-0 record.  I successfully faded them with Santa Clara +30.5 in 75-89 loss to the Bulldogs on Thursday.  And I'm certainly going to back a better team here in Loyola-Marymount catching 25 points against them tonight.

Loyola-Marymount is 12-7 this season with its largest margin of defeat coming by 17 points to BYU and by 15 to Minnesota.  So the Lions haven't even come close do losing by this kind of margin all season.  I get that it's Gonzaga and their best opponent yet, but it's still too many points.

The Lions are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game as well.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall which includes upset road wins over both San Francisco 68-63 as 5.5-point dogs and Pepperdine 81-74 as 5-point dogs.

Few teams in the WCC have played Gonzaga as tough as Loyola-Marymount in recent years.  Indeed, four of the last five meetings were decided by 18 points or less with the Lions going 4-1 ATS in those five meetings.

Loyola-Marymount is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games after playing their last game on the road.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Loyola-Marymount Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State PK

The Iowa State Cyclones have been knocking on the door of their first Big 12 victory.  They are 0-14 in Big 12 play, but 8-6 ATS as they have several close losses against some of the top teams in the conference.  They will be highly motivated to erase that zero from the win column today, and I believe it's their best chance to get a victory all season.

Iowa State has losses to Baylor by 5 and 11 points, WVU by 4 and 5 points, Texas by 6, and Oklahoma by 7 and 10 points.  They can play with anyone in this conference.  Now they will be looking for revenge from a 76-79 loss at TCU on February 9th in their first meeting this season.  They simply went cold from the field in the 2H and allowed the Horned Frogs to come back on them.  This team keeps playing hard, and eventually the breaks are going to fall their way late in games.  I think that is today.

TCU is just 2-8 SU in its last 10 games overall with its two wins both coming at home by a combined 6 points, including that 3-point win over the Cyclones.  Seven of the eight losses have come by 8 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Iowa State is a sensational 31-5 ATS in its last 36 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a home conference loss.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +19

I cashed in Southern Illinois +20 yesterday in a 60-52 loss to Loyola-Chicago with the spread never in doubt.  I'm back on them today for many of the same reasons in the rematch.

Loyola-Chicago is overvalued right now after going 13-1 in its last 14 games overall.  I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is once again way out of hand with the Ramblers being 19-point favorites against a very competitive Southern Illinois team.

The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 14-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games.  Since they have 18-point favorites or higher four times and failed to cover in all four of those games.  I cased in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively.  I also cashed in Valpo +19 in their 2-point loss and then Southern Illinois +20 in their 8-point loss.

It's still a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-12 SU in their last 16 games overall.  But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number.  In their two games prior to this series they lost to Valpo by 1 and beat them by 3 in the rematch to give them a recent common opponent.

Loyola-Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games.  The Ramblers play at a slow tempo and have been held to 60 or fewer points in three straight games coming in.  It's difficult for them to cover these huge numbers when they play at such a slow tempo and don't get many shots up.  The Ramblers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points.  Take Southern Illinois Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +18

This is a great spot to fade the Colorado State Rams.  They will be rusty as they will be returning from a three-week COVID break with their last game played on February 6th.  They won't be sharp enough to put away Air Force by 18-plus points, which is what it's going to take to cover this ridiculous spread.

Air Force is undervalued right now due to its 5-17 SU record.  But the Falcons finally put an end to their 10-game losing streak with a win over New Mexico last time out.  And they have been competitive during this skid with each of their last seven losses coming by 13 points or fewer.

Air Force is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.  The Falcons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4

The Wisconsin Badgers want revenge from a 60-75 road loss at Illinois on February 6th earlier this month.  I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Illinois is without its best player for this game, and arguably the best player in the country.

Ayo Dosunmu (21.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.3 APG) is out with a broken nose right now.  I think the Fighting Illini are getting too much respect from the books after covering as 14-point favorites over Nebraska in an 86-70 win in their first game without him.  This will be a much taller task against the Badgers today.  Dosunmu became the third player in Illinois history with a triple double with 21 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds in that first meeting.

While Illinois has just one day to get ready for Wisconsin after playing Nebraska on Thursday, the Badgers have had the last five days off to get ready for the Fighting Illini.  That huge rest and preparation advantage will pay big dividends for the Badgers this afternoon.

The Badgers are 56-36 ATS in their last 92 home games after a win by 15 points or more.  The favorite is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +20

Loyola-Chicago is way overvalued right now after going 12-1 SU in its last 13 games overall.  I've been 'selling high' on this team a lot lately, and I'm not going to stop today as this line is way out of hand with the Ramblers being 20-point favorites over a very competitive Southern Illinois team.

The Ramblers went 7-0-1 ATS in their first eight games during this 13-game run, but they weren't more than 11.5-point favorites in any of those games.  Since they have been 18-point favorites or higher three times and failed to cover all three of those games.  I cashed in Evansville +18.5 and +18 in 13 and 11-point losses, respectively.  And last time out I cashed in Valpo as 19-point dogs in a 2-point loss to Loyola-Chicago.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Southern Illinois after going just 4-11 SU in its last 15 games overall.  But the Salukis have just two losses all season by the kind of margin its going to take for Loyola-Chicago to cover this ridiculous number.  And they just lost by 1 and beat Valpo by 3 in their last two games to give them a common opponent with the Ramblers.

Southern Illinois is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Loyola-Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 45% or higher after 15-plus games.

Plays on road teams (Southern Illinois) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Southern Illinois Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +4

The Michigan State Spartans have finally turned the corner and are making a late-season push to make the NCAA Tournament.  Tom Izzo-coached teams always get better as the season goes on, and it's finally happening for this Spartans team.

They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over Indiana 78-71 as 6.5-point road underdogs and Illinois 81-72 as 6.5-point home underdogs.  Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to Ohio State tonight in a game they should be favored in.

This is a tough spot for Ohio State.  They are coming off a deflating 87-92 home loss to their biggest rivals in the Michigan Wolverines.  It pretty much assured that they wouldn't be winning the Big Ten this season.  They blew a late lead in that game.  I think they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Michigan State tonight.  Plus, they will be without one of their better players in Kyle Young (8.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who is out with a concussion suffered against Michigan.

Michigan State is 15-4 SU in its last 19 home meetings with Ohio State.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after going over the total in two or more consecutive games.  Michigan State is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs.   Take Michigan State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +12

This game means a lot more to Western Kentucky (15-4) than it does Houston.  The Hilltoppers could get into the NCAA Tournament with an upset win here.  They are a senior-laden team that returned all five starters and a win over No. 12 Houston would really help their cause.

"These kinds of opportunities are something that we kind of cherish a little bit," Hilltoppers coach Rick Stansbury said. "You don't get a lot of them. Sometimes you've got to back into them every once in a while.  It's very obvious if you watched them Sunday you can understand why there aren't a lot of takers to go to Houston opportunity-wise, we just felt like there is a lot more to gain than there is to lose.  As a coach, as a player, everybody else, you just want an opportunity to play against the best, and there's no doubt they are one of the best teams in the country.  It's very obviously a great challenge for us, but at the same time a great opportunity."

I think that quote says all you need to know about what this game means for the Hilltoppers as they will be more motivated for a win in this game than at any other point all season.  They've already shown they can play with some elite teams.  They only lost by 6 to West Virginia on a neutral and actually upset Alabama on the road.  That win over Alabama looks really good right about now.

The Hilltoppers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs.  Western Kentucky is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The Cougars have recent upset losses to Wichita State 63-68 and East Carolina 73-82, so they are far from invincible.  And they shouldn't be laying double-digits here against this underrated Hilltoppers squad.  Roll with Western Kentucky Thursday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE MONTH on Santa Clara +30.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking and their unbeaten 22-0 record comes a following from the betting public that makes them overvalued.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs tonight.

Santa Clara (10-6) is one of the better teams in the conference and very capable of staying within this ridiculous 30.5-point spread.  Their largest loss of the entire season came by 23 points, and that was at USC.  If they can stay within 23 points of that very good USC team, you have to like their chances of covering this huge number.

Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less this season.  The Bulldogs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  They have covered each of their last three games and are overvalued because of it.  It's time to fade them.  Bet Santa Clara Thursday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami +11.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Miami Hurricanes tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in including a 60-87 loss to Georgia Tech last time out.  Now the Hurricanes are in their largest underdog role (+11.5) of the entire season tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Florida State Seminoles.  They have won three straight and eight of their last nine coming in.  But they are just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with a 10-point loss to Clemson and an 11-point loss at Georgia Tech.  They only beat Pitt by 7 on the road and won by 13 at Louisville in their one standout road performance.

Miami is going to want revenge from a 59-81 road loss at Florida State as 11.5-point underdogs on January 27th.  The Hurricanes have gotten a lot healthier since that point and are now catching 11.5 points again at home this time around.  So there has been zero adjustment for home-court advantage and there should be at least a little.

Miami recently upset Duke 77-75 as 11-point home dogs and took Virginia Tech to OT as 5-point home dogs in two of its last three home games.  They also upset Louisville as 4.5-point home dogs.  They have played their best basketball at home this season.

The Seminoles are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Miami is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games into the season.  The Hurricanes are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Take Miami Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +11.5

I've been riding this Tulane train and will continue to do so Wednesday.  The Green Wave are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't lost any of those seven games by more than 8 points.

Their only non-cover came by 1.5 points in a 3-point loss to UCF as 1.5-point underdogs.  UCF couldn't miss as they went 14-of-26 from 3-point range, yet the Green Wave still managed to make a game of it and only lose by 3 points.  That's just how well they are playing right now.

Now the Green Wave take on a Memphis team that has been off since February 6th due to a COVID break.  We saw Memphis return from a similar length COVID break last time and lose outright to Tulsa.  There will be a similar rust factor involved in this return as well, and they should not be laying this big of a number to a Tulane team playing their best basketball of the season.  It's also worth noting Tulane only lost by 6 to Memphis at home in their first meeting this season and will want some revenge.

Memphis spent 10 of the days doing zero team activities and conditioning.  Penny Hardaway noted how out of shape his players were when they returned to practice finally.  And I think the Tigers are just getting too much respect right now after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won't return the same team they were prior to this COVID pause.

Tulane is 7-0 ATS in in its last seven games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Tulane is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Green Wave are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Green Wave.  Take Tulane Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +5.5

The Temple Owls will be out for revenge from a 76-83 home loss to South Florida on Sunday.  Now the Owls get their shot at revenge and come back as 5.5-point underdogs after being just 2-point dogs in their first meeting.  This is too big of an adjustment.

Temple committed 17 turnovers compared to just 7 for South Florida in the first meeting, which was the difference.  They won't be so sloppy with the ball as the Bulls rarely force turnovers at this kind of rate.  In fact, the 17 turnovers were the most they forced in any game all season.  And Temple had 14 or fewer turnovers in nine of their previous 11 games, so they do a pretty good job of holding onto it.

Temple is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 road games off a home loss.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Temple Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri -3

The Missouri Tigers want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season just two weeks ago.  They lost 59-80 at Ole Miss on February 10th.  The Tigers now come back as only 3-point home favorites in the rematch, and I look for them to get their revenge and cover this short number.

Missouri is 8-2 at home this season with wins over the likes of Alabama and Illinois.  Ole Miss is 4-5 on the road this season and coming off a poor 56-66 home loss to Mississippi State.  They had won four straight prior to that defeat, which I think has them overvalued.  

Plus the fact that they already beat Missouri by 21 has them overvalued as well.  Missouri is undervalued after losing three of its last four, but it ended a three-game skid with a 15-point win at South Carolina last time out.

Ole Miss is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after winning two of its last three games coming in.  The Rebels are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Ole Miss is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Missouri Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +23

Baylor makes its long-awaited return from a three-week COVID break as they have been off since February 2nd.  There will be some rust involved, and they have no business laying 23 points to Iowa State in their first game back from the break.

The Cyclones have showed some fight and will continue to battle to try and earn that first Big 12 victory.  That's especially the case playing the No. 2 team in the country here in Baylor.  And the Cyclones have quietly posted a winning ATS record (7-6) in Big 12 play this season.

Their recent efforts including a 4-point loss to WVU as 11.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to TCU as 4.5-point dogs and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 11.5-point dogs.  They have lost just one of their last seven games by more than 18 points.

Iowa State already showed they could hang with Baylor in their 65-76 loss as 15.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 23-point dogs in the rematch, a 7.5-point adjustment that has no basis, especially with the awful spot for Baylor coming back from a COVID break.

The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Iowa state is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS coming in.  The Cyclones are 61-38 ATS in their last 99 games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +7

The Michigan State Spartans won't be packing it in any time soon under Tom Izzo.  They still have a shot to make the tournament.  And their 78-71 upset win as 6.5-point dogs at Indiana last time out helped.  Now a signature win over a Top 5 Illinois team would go a long way to helping their cause tonight.

We've seen the Illini be vulnerable in two of their last three games against Big Ten bottom feeders.  They needed overtime to beat Nebraska 77-72 as 14-point favorites.  They also struggled to put away Northwestern at home in a 73-66 win as 13-point favorites.

Illinois hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Michigan State by more than 7 points.  That makes for a 14-0 system backing the Spartans pertaining to this 7-point spread tonight.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Michigan State is 52-23-3 ATS in its last 78 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as home underdogs.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Saint Louis off their worst loss of the season a 53-76 loss at Dayton as 6-point favorites.  They had been rolling with four straight victories by a combined 69 points prior to that setback.  They shot just 27.1% from the field against Dayton, and that's not going to happen again here.

Look for Saint Louis to get back on track against VCU here Tuesday.  They face a Rams team coming off an upset loss 76-79 as 9-point favorites against George Mason.  And the news gets worse as they lost their best player in Nah-Shon Hyland (19.2 PPG) to a foot injury late in that game.  They won't have his services tonight, and it's a huge loss for the Rams that isn't being factored into this line enough.

The Billikens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points.  VCU is 0-6 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  VCU is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 games as an underdog, including 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.  Take Saint Louis Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Southern Illinois -1.5

Southern Illinois will be out for revenge from a tough 65-66 home loss as 2-point favorites against Valparaiso yesterday.  Now the Salukis come back as 1.5-point favorites in the rematch.  I think they get their revenge with a win and cover today.

Southern Illinois has been great at getting revenge in these situations recently.  In fact, they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three tries in this situation after losing the first game of these double-headers.  After losing 62-74 to UNI, they won 71-68 on the rematch.  After losing 66-74 at Bradley, they won 69-68 in the rematch.  And after losing 55-80 to Illinois State, they won 59-49 in the rematch.

The last time Valpo won the first game of the double-head, they lost the second game.  They won 70-57 at UNI before losing 60-74 in the rematch.  And I think we see more of the same here from these two teams with the Salukis getting the job done in the rematch and the Crusaders letting up and faltering.

The Salukis are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Valparaiso is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off an upset win as an underdog.  Take Southern Illinois Monday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Evansville +11.5

Evansville lost 71-85 at Drake yesterday.  Now the Purple Aces come back as 11.5-point underdogs in the rematch today.  They will be the more motivated team, and there's several reasons to believe they will improve off that effort.

For starters, Drake shot 65.4% as a team and 11-of-21 (52.4%) from 3-point range.  They had a player come off the bench and score 32 points on 12-of-14 shooting and 5-of-7 from 3-point range.  Evansville only made 5-of-21 (23.8%) from 3-point range.  None of those things are likely to happen again, and it's actually impressive they only lost by 14 with all of those factors.

Evansville just doesn't get blown out very often.  That 14-point loss was their third-largest defeat all season.  The other two came to Bradley and Louisville.  They stayed within 13 of Loyola-Chicago in both their meetings.  And I think they improve upon yesterday's effort and take Drake to the wire today.  

Especially with Drake beating without leading scorer Hemphill (14.1 PPG) and with second-leading scorer Penn (11.2 PPG) questionable.  They are short-handed right now and will struggle in this back-to-back situation.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Evansville) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (69-73%), after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher are 33-13 (71.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Evansville Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Iowa Hawkeyes after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They had gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games prior to this streak.  The only difference is that they have shot it much better and their opponents have not.

It's also time to 'buy low' on Penn State after going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  Two of those losses came by a combined 3 points and the other was a 10-point loss to Ohio State, which is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now.

Penn State has been better than its 7-11 record would indicate.  Eight of the 11 losses have come by 10 points or less.  And I think they have a great chance to stay within this 11.5-point spread of the Hawkeyes, who just don't play enough defense to put teams away consistently.

Penn State is 3-2 SU in its last five meetings with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes haven't beaten the Nittany Lions by more than 11 points in any of their last seven meetings, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing Penn State pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.  The Nittany Lions are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as road underdogs.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan/Ohio State UNDER 146.5

I'm taking the UNDER in this huge Top 10 showdown between Michigan and Ohio State.  Points will be at a premium in this rivalry.  And both of these teams can lock the other down defensively.

Ohio State is giving up just 63.3 points per game on 38.2% shooting at home this season.  Michigan is allowing 64.9 points per game on 37.7% shooting on the season, and 62.8 points per game and 38% shooting in conference play.

The Wolverines are rusty on offense right now because they had a three-week break due to COVID.  But their defensive effort will be there like it always is as that is their bread and butter.  And they like to slow the tempo.

The head-to-head history is what really has me excited about this bet on the UNDER.  Ohio State and Michigan have combined for 142 or fewer points in each of their last 11 meetings.  That's an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +2

The Ohio State Buckeyes should not be home underdogs to the Michigan Wolverines today.  The Buckeyes are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  That includes road wins over Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland and Penn State during this stretch.

Michigan struggled to beat Wisconsin and Rutgers in its two games since returning from a three-week break due to COVID.  I think there's still some rust here with the Wolverines, and they won't be able to beat an Ohio State team that is playing better than anyone else in the Big Ten right now.  Yet the Buckeyes continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

Ohio State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Michigan.  That includes a 77-63 win last year.  The Buckeyes are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego +32.5

The lack of action due to COVID and the 3-7 SU record has the San Diego Toreros undervalued right now.  That has been evident in their most recent games as the Toreros are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

They returned from a three-week layoff and upset Santa Clara 71-60 as 6.5-point road underdogs on Thursday.  So the layoff clearly didn't affect them, and they are obviously excited to be back in action.

Now the Toreros will take another shot at Gonzaga after losing 62-90 to the Bulldogs but covering the 29.5-point spread on January 28th in their first meeting.  Now the Toreros are catching 32.5 points in the rematch, which is too much.  Gonzaga won't be motivated enough to cover this huge number against a team they already beat by 28.

The Toreros are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  San Diego is 32-14 ATS in its last 46 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  The Toreros are 44-22 ATS in their last 64 road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS vs. poor shooting teams that make 42% or less of their shots this season.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with San Diego Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +12

The Iowa State Cyclones are 0-12 in Big 12 play this season.  They will keep fighting to try and get that first conference win until they get it, and then they might pack it in.  But until then they want to erase that zero, and they have been playing like it.

They have been pretty competitive as they are 6-6 ATS in Big 12 play.  And one of those covers came in a 72-79 loss at Oklahoma as 14-point dogs.  Now the Cyclones come back as 12-point home dogs in the rematch and I think they can stay within the number again.

It's definitely a great time to 'buy low' on the winless Cyclones and 'sell high' on the Sooners, who have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But their last five wins have all come by 7 points or fewer, so it's not like they are blowing teams out.

Iowa State is 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Oklahoma.  The Sooners are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games as road favorites.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their last game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (20% or less) are 39-11 (78%) ATS since 1997.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on VCU off six straight victories.  They won four straight games against the class of the Atlantic 10 in Rhode Island, Dayton, St. Bonaventure and Richmond.  And now they have a game on deck at Saint Louis in three days.  That makes this the ultimate sandwich spot for them, and an ideal letdown spot to take the double-digit points with George Mason.

Plus, VCU already beat George Mason 66-61 on the road as 5.5-point favorites on January 6th in their first meeting this season.  So the Rams won't be all that motivated to beat them again.  And we've seen a 5-point line adjustment for flipping home courts, which just goes to show how overvalued VCU is right now.

George Mason comes in playing well having gone 4-3 SU in its last seven games overall.  That includes their 32-point win over Fordham last time out on February 10th.  Now the Patriots have had nine days to get ready for this rematch with VCU.  The Rams only have two days to get ready for this game after beating Richmond on Wednesday.

George Mason is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games when playing with 7 or more days' rest.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  VCU has only one win by more than 12 points in its last 10 games, so it's not like they are blowing teams out on the regular.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (George Mason) - off a blowout conference win by 20 points or more against an opponent that's off two straight conference wins are 65-36 (64.4%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Georgia Mason Saturday.

20* Utah State/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State ML +108

Utah State will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are battling Boise State for first place in the Mountain West and this is essentially a must-win if they want to take down the conference title.  That's especially the case after losing 70-79 at Boise State on Wednesday.

Now the Aggies will be out for revenge here and don't have to wait long to get it as they meet up again on Friday.  Utah State shot just 3-of-16 (18.7%) from 3-point range and made only 9 free throws in that 9-point loss.  Just a slight improvement in both categories will have them winning this rematch outright tonight.

The Aggies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Utah State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Friday.

20* Colorado/Oregon ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -3

The Oregon Ducks are now finding their rhythm following a couple COVID pauses.  They only played one game in four weeks from January 10th through February 3rd.  But now they have played four games since returning from their latest break.

After getting upset by Washington State, the Ducks have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS since with their only non-cover coming in a 12-point win over Washington as 12.5-point favorites.  They then went on the road and beat Arizona State 75-64 as a 2-point favorite and Arizona 63-61 as a 1.5-point dog.   Now they want revenge from a 72-79 road loss at Colorado in their first meeting this season.

I like their chances of getting that revenge considering Oregon is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Colorado.  The Buffaloes are coming off a bad 62-71 road loss at California as a 9-point favorite, and they have been awful on the road throughout the years.

Indeed, the Buffaloes are 17-43 ATS in their last 60 road games.  Colorado is 13-39 ATS in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is a ridiculous 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Ducks are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Michigan UNDER 136.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten square off Thursday when the Rutgers Scarlet Knights visit the Michigan Wolverines.  I can't believe they have set this total as high as they have, and there's a ton of value with the UNDER tonight.

Rutgers gives up just 41.7% shooting on the season and plays at a slow pace.  The Scarlet Knights have been even better defensively of late, giving up 58.8 PPG and 37.5% shooting in their last five games.  Michigan gives up 37.5% shooting on the season and has allowed 63 or fewer points in five of their last six games coming in.

Five of the last six meetings in this series would have gone UNDER 136.5 points.  They have combined for 112, 132, 142, 109, 132 and 125 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 125.3 combined points per game, giving us over 11 points of value with this 136.5-point total.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Rutgers' last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Wolverines' last six games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Michigan's last five games following a win.  Rutgers is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after allowing 50 points or less.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK

Wisconsin is coming off a bad 59-67 home loss to Michigan in which they blew a double-digit first half lead.  It's now a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers, who have been a very resilient team all season.  Indeed, Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU in its six games following a loss this season.  They haven't lost two in a row all year.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Iowa coming off its best performance of the season in a 30-point win over Michigan State.  That followed up a 13-point win over Rutgers.  Now the Hawkeyes are overvalued here as this line is a pick 'em on the road at Wisconsin.  Keep in mind Iowa had gone 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its previous five games prior to beating Michigan State and Rutgers.

Wisconsin is 27-11 SU in its last 38 meetings with Iowa, including 13-3 SU in its last 16 home meetings.  Iowa is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers.  The Badgers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a conference loss.  The Badgers are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss overall.  Bet Wisconsin Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +6

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Missouri State.  The Bears are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Two of those wins came against a Bradley team that was missing four of its best players due to suspension.  Two of those wins came against Illinois State, the worst team in the MVC.

And the other win came 65-53 at home over this same Southern Illinois team on February 10th.  Now the Salukis will be the team out for revenge exactly one week later.  And Southern Illinois gets them at home this time around.  They've barely adjusted the line for home-court advantage as Missouri State was a 6.5-point home favorite and now they are a 6-point road favorite.

Southern Illinois is 7-3 SU at home this season.  The Salukis have been great in these revenge spots, too.  They lost to Illinois State by 25 and came back and beat them by 10 in the rematch.  They lost to Northern Iowa by 12 and came back and beat them by 3 in the rematch.  And they lost by 8 at Bradley and came back and beat them by 1 in the rematch in the last three such situations.

Southern Illinois is 17-3 SU in its last 20 home meetings with Missouri State.  The Salukis are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a home game.  Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off a win by 10 points or more.  The Salukis are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games overall.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +20.5

Valparaiso's 8-14 record has them undervalued right now.  They were an awful team in the first half of the season.  But they have been way more competitive of late.  The Crusaders are 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They beat Drake outright by 17 as 13-point dogs and also lost to Drake in OT as 12.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with Drake, they can certainly hang with Loyola-Chicago.

I've been fading the Ramblers with a lot of success lately.  They were overvalued after a stretch in which they went 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS to open conference play.  They have since gone just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  I faded them in both matchups with Evansville as they were 18 and 18.5-point favorites in those two games and failed to cover either.  Valpo is on Evansville's level and should not be catching 20.5 points.

Loyola-Chicago is coming off its two biggest games of the season in a double-header with Drake, their only contender to win the Missouri Valley.  I think this is now a flat spot for the Ramblers after splitting those two games with Drake.  And consider that Valpo was an 11-point underdog in its first meeting with Loyola-Chicago this season.  Now the Crusaders as 20.5-point dogs in the rematch, a 9.5-point adjustment which is simply too much.

The road team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Valparaiso is 42-15 ATS in its last 57 games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Crusaders are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 games when revenging a home loss.  Valparaiso is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after playing its last two games on the road.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on UCF -2.5

The UCF Knights are 2-2 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their two losses both came by a single point in games that they covered.  They lost 60-61 to Wichita State, which might be the second-best team in the AAC behind Houston.  They also lost 68-69 at Cincinnati.

The Knights upset Tulsa 65-58 as 5-point road underdogs.  They also barely failed to cover in a 4-point win over Tulane as 4.5-point home favorites.  And now UCF wants revenge from a 61-68 road loss at South Florida back on January 2nd.

The Bulls had to take a month off due to COVID and have come back rusty.  They have played two games since the month layoff.  They lost by 17 at home to Houston.  Then they were upset by Tulane as 5-point home favorites.  That gives these teams in recent common opponent in Tulane in which UCF just beat.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  UCF is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing its 3rd game in 7 days.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take UCF Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +11

Nebraska was in a clear letdown spot yesterday after ending a long losing streak in Big Ten play with a 62-61 win at Penn State as 11-point underdogs.  That followed up a 72-77 (OT) home loss to Illinois as 14-point dogs.

So the Huskers were playing their best basketball of the season coming into that game against Maryland yesterday.  They promptly fell flat and lost 50-64 as 10.5-point dogs.  Now they come back as 11-point dogs in the rematch and should be much more focused and motivated for revenge.

The Terrapins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Maryland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Terrapins are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Maryland is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.  Roll with Nebraska Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State +6

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan State Spartans tonight.  They have gone just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  We are getting the Spartans at the bottom of the barrel tonight in terms of line value because of it.

Michigan State will be motivated following a 30-point loss to Iowa.  They will also be motivated for revenge from a 54-55 home loss to Purdue as 6-point home favorites on January 8th.  They blew a 31-16 halftime lead in that game, and they have not forgotten.

Now the Spartans come back as 6-point underdogs in the rematch.  That's a full 12-point adjustment and it's simply too much.  That adjustment alone should show you that there's clearly value on the Spartans tonight in the rematch as you almost never see that big of an adjustment in a head-to-head series.  Especially when home-court advantage isn't worth that much this year.

Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Purdue is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Boilermakers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

20* Washington/Washington State Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +8

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Washington off five straight losses.  But the Huskies haven't quit on their season as they only lost 61-64 to UCLA as 9.5-point underdogs over the weekend.  And they'll certainly get up for their biggest rivals in Washington State tonight.

That's especially the case with the Huskies wanting revenge from a 62-77 home loss to Washington State as 1.5-point favorites on January 31st.  Now the Huskies come back as 8-point road dogs just two weeks later, which is a 9.5-point adjustment in the line.  There's clearly value in the Huskies in the rematch.

I can see Washington State taking Washington lightly after already beating them by 15.  And it's kind of a flat spot for them anyway after two straight games against ranked opponents in UCLA and USC.  Plus, their best player in Isaac Bonton (18.4 PPG) suffered an ankle injury against USC over the weekend, and even though he is expected to play tonight he won't be 100%.

The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Washington Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +5

Tulane continues to battle for head coach Ron Hunter.  The Green Wave are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have pulled road upsets over Tulsa and Temple as 7.5 and 8-point dogs, respectively.  And their three losses were all close with a 3-point home loss to Cincinnati, a 4-point road loss at UCF and an 8-point road loss at Wichita State.

Now the Green Wave are catching 5 points here Sunday against a South Florida team that has been hit hard by COVID.  The Bulls returned from a month off an lost 65-82 at home to Houston.  Now the Bulls will still be rusty here in just their 2nd game back.  They have no business being a 5-point favorite over an active Tulane team that is playing its best basketball of the season.

South Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog.  South Florida is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 31% or less.  Take Tulane Sunday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +1

The Michigan Wolverines will be returning from a COVID pause that has lasted over three weeks.  They will be rusty in their first game back here against Wisconsin.  So I'll gladly fade them here.

Wisconsin wants revenge from a 54-77 road loss at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  The Wolverines were only 2.5-point favorites in that game, and now they are 1-point road favorites in the rematch.  The books have not adjusted enough for the rust factor and the flip of venues.

Wisconsin is 11-2 SU at home this season.  The Badgers are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with Michigan.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +8

The Washington State Cougars have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season.  That is especially the case of late as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes an upset home win over UCLA by 8, an upset road win at Oregon by 3 and an upset road win at Washington by 15.

Now the Cougars will relish the opportunity to try and upset a Top 25 opponent here in USC.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Trojans, who are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall coming in.  Now they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their ranking and this run.

Washington State wants revenge from a 77-85 road loss at USC on January 16th in thier first meeting this season.  So they've already proven they can play with the Trojans on the road losing by just 8 points, and now they get them at home in the rematch and are catching 8 points.

The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Washington State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +7

The Valparaiso Crusaders are playing their best basketball of the season right now in going 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes upset wins over Drake and Bradley, as well as an OT loss to Drake.

Understandably, after handing Drake its first loss of the season, the Crusaders had a big letdown in their next game with a 52-76 loss to Bradley.  The Braves also wanted that game more as they were looking for revenge from an earlier loss to the Crusaders.  But now is a great time to 'buy low' on Valparaiso off that blowout defeat.

Northern Iowa has no business being a 7-point favorite in this game.  The Panthers have been overvalued all season as they are just 6-13 SU & 3-13-1 ATS on the year.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with their lone victory coming by 3 points over Indiana State.  They just lost by 21 to Drake, the same team that Valparaiso beat once and took to OT the other meeting recently.

Valparaiso is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive unders.  Northern Iowa is 0-6 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 7 days this season.  The Crusaders are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games when playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  Valparaiso is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Panthers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Valparaiso Saturday.

20* Iowa/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +5

The Michigan State Spartans are coming out the other side of the COVID problems that set them back.  After three straight road losses, the Spartans have won two in a row at home and now want revenge from one of those road defeats.

The Spartans lost 78-84 at Iowa in their first meeting on February 2nd.  Now they get their shot at revenge less than two weeks later.  Iowa attempted 20 more free throws than Michigan State and shot 50% compared to 40% for the Spartans.  Yet the Hawkeyes still only won that game by 6 points.

Iowa isn't playing well enough right now to be a 5-point road favorite.  The Hawkeyes are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are a tired team right now playing their 5th game in 12 days here.  It's just the 3rd game in 11 days for the Spartans, who always seem to get better as the season goes along under Tom Izzo.

Michigan State is 17-1 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Iowa.  So getting 5 points with the Spartans given that trend is a tremendous value.  And they need a signature win like this to climb back into the NCAA Tournament picture.  You can bet the Spartans will be putting their best foot forward today, and it should be good enough to get the cover at a minimum.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* Indiana/Ohio State ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -6.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have won five Big Ten road games during this stretch over Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Rutgers.  Nobody is playing better than the Buckeyes in the Big Ten right now.

Now they will take down an Indiana team that is getting respect from oddsmakers off two recent upset wins over the Iowa Hawkeyes.  But they needed double-overtime to beat Northwestern on Wednesday and will now be playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  The Buckeyes have had four days to get ready for this game after last playing on Monday.

The Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Ohio State is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Buckeyes are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 home meetings with Indiana.  Roll with Ohio State Saturday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4.5

The Clemson Tigers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off two straight blowout home wins over two good teams in the ACC with a 13-point win over North Carolina and a 17-point win over Syracuse.  It should be more of the same here against Georgia Tech.

Clemson has a huge rest and preparation advantage here.  The Tigers last played on Saturday, so they have had five days to get ready for the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech just lost to Virginia on Wednesday, so the Yellow Jackets have only one day to get ready for Clemson.

We will get a big effort from the Tigers tonight as they are out for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season.  They lost 65-83 at Georgia Tech on January 20th.  Everything went right for the Yellow Jackets as they shot 16-of-26 (61.5%) from 3-point range and forced 20 turnovers.  Don't count on either of those things to happen again.

Clemson has won 18 of its last 23 home meetings with Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-4 SU in true road games this season.  The Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Clemson is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games following a win.  Roll with Clemson Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford ML +105

The Stanford Cardinal are 5-1 at home this season and are as healthy as they have been all season.  They recently got some key players back from injury and are a 'buy on' team moving forward.

The Colorado Buffaloes have played four straight home games and went 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  And they have been a terrible road team throughout the years.  I think this is a tough spot for them playing on just two days' rest and playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  Stanford comes in on three days' rest.

Stanford wants revenge from a 64-77 road loss to Colorado on January 16th.  The home team has dominated this series.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Colorado is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  Stanford is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games off a home win.  The Buffaloes are 16-42 ATS in their last 58 road games.  The Cardinal are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 home games.  Bet Stanford on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Rutgers/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Rutgers +7

The Fran McCaffrey fade is a real thing.  The Iowa Hawkeyes opened 12-2 before going 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They seems to struggle late in the year every season as McCaffrey fails to push the right buttons time and time again.

A big reason for the Hawkeyes struggling this time around is the packed schedule due to COVID.  Iowa just played 3 games in 6 days and now will be playing their 4th game in 9 days.  They have only two days to get ready for Rutgers after losing in Indiana on Sunday.

Rutgers has five days to get ready for Iowa after last playing on February 4th.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Now they want revenge from a 77-75 home loss to Iowa on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  The Hawkeyes are 3-2 SU in their last five meetings against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights are +21 in point differential in those five games.  Iowa's three wins came by 2, 2 and 5 points, while Rutgers won by 14 and 16.  And now we are catching 7 points with the Scarlet Knights, which is too much tonight.

Rutgers are 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Rutgers is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or better.  The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game on the season.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane +8.5

Tulane head coach Ron Hunter has always been a great motivator.  The Green Wave have been through some adversity with COVID-19 this season, but they haven't quit playing.  And they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Indeed, the Green Wave are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Temple by 17 as 8-point road underdogs.  They hung with Wichita State in an 8-point loss as 12-point road underdogs.  And last time out they led Cincinnati most the way but lost by 3 as 6-point home dogs.  And now they are catching 8.5 points to Tulsa tonight as oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team.

The Golden Hurricane looked like they could be a tournament team a month ago when they upset Houston.  But it has pretty much been all downhill since, and head coach Frank Haith isn't doing a good job of keeping his team together.  They have gone 1-4 SU in their last five games overall to fall to 9-8 on the season.  Their only win during this stretch came against East Carolina by 9.

Head-to-head history certainly favors the Green Wave here.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tulane hasn't lost any of its last five road meetings at Tulsa by more than 8 points.  The Green Wave are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Tulane is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Take Tulane Wednesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -2.5

This is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Michigan State Spartans.  They are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall and just 4-12 ATS on the season.  They have burned the publics money all year and they don't want to continue to back them because of it.

Now we are getting the Spartans extremely cheap at home as only 2.5-point favorites.  COVID problems have been an issue for them, but they are starting to come out the other side of it and should continue to improve just as Tom Izzo-coached teams always seem to do as the season goes on.  And at 9-7 on the season, they still have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament with a big finish to the season.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Penn State, which has gone 3-1 ATS in its last four games coming in.  While the Nittany Lions have been great at home, they have been terrible on the road.  Indeed, they are 0-6 SU in Big Ten road games this season.

Michigan State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after covering two of their last three ATS coming in.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Michigan State Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on NC State -2

NC State is proving it has the depth and talent to overcome the loss of leading scorer Devon Daniels (16.5 PPG).  He has missed the past three games and the Wolfpack have gone 2-0-1 ATS without him.

They won at Boston College by 16 as 6-point favorites, only lost by 7 at home to Virginia as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 3 at Syracuse as 6.5-point dogs.  Now the Wolfpack get their chance at revenge here against the Orange just over a week later and get them at home this time around.

That's important considering the Wolfpack are 6-2 SU at home this season.  Syracuse is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season.  The Orange haven't even been competitive in their last three road games, losing by 17 at Clemson, by 23 at Virginia and by 17 at Pittsburgh.

NC State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after making 78% of their free throws or better in their previous game.  The Wolfpack are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after giving up 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game.  The Orange are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with NC State Tuesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +14

The Air Force Falcons want revenge from a 58-68 road loss to the UNLV Rebels yesterday as 14-point underdogs.  Now the Falcons come back as 14-point dogs again here Monday and I see a ton of value in backing them.

The Falcons were competitive for 40 minutes and only trailed 28-31 at halftime.  And it's worth noting that UNLV got its best player back in Bryce Hamilton and he couldn't have played better yesterday, scoring 22 points on 9-of-14 shooting and grabbing 13 rebounds.  He played his best game, and they still only won by 10.

Air Force is 55-31 ATS in its last 86 games as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  UNLV hasn't won any of its last 11 meetings with Air Force by more than 12 points, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Air Force Monday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +18.5

I cashed in Evansville yesterday +19.5 in a 55-68 road loss to Loyola-Chicago.  I'm backing on them again today as this 18.5-point spread in the rematch is still too high for many of the same reasons as I stated yesterday.

It's time to 'sell high' on Loyola-Chicago after going 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Ramblers hadn't been more than an 11-point favorite in any of its previous 10 games prior to yesterday.  Now all of a sudden the Ramblers are 19.5 and 18.5-point favorites in back-to-back games.

And this is an Evansville team that has been competitive all season.  They have just two losses by more than 13 points all season, and only three losses by more than 9 points.  The Purple Aces have gone 6-4 SU in their last 10 games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Evansville Sunday.

20* Iowa/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -3.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Iowa Hawkeyes Sunday.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  That includes their upset 69-81 home loss to Indiana as 10-point favorites on January 21st.

Now the Hawkeyes want revenge from that defeat, which was clearly their worst performance of the season thus far.  They go from being 10-point favorites in that game to only 3.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 6.5-point adjustment which is just too much.  The Hawkeyes are clearly the superior team, and when they put their best foot forward today given their motivation that will show on the court.

Indiana is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three home games with upset losses to Purdue and Rutgers, as well as an overtime loss to Illinois.  The Hoosiers just don't have the home-court advantage they normally would due to COVID.  But their home lines continue to be inflated in their favor.

Indiana is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games after failing to cover two of its last three ATS.  The Hawkeyes are 9-0 ATS in their last nine Sunday games.  Iowa is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS loss.  The Hawkeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +10.5

Pittsburgh opened 8-2 this season before losing three of its last four.  But the Panthers ended their skid with an 83-72 upset win over a ranked Virginia Tech team last time out.  That's the same VA Tech team that recently beat Virginia by 14.

The Panthers should not be catching double-digits here against a Virginia team that struggles to get margin with the way they play.  They only beat NC State by 7 last time out and haven't won three of their last four games by more than 7 points.

The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Cavaliers are 9-18 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  Roll with Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4

This game should be lined closer to a pick 'em.  I think Wisconsin has the goods to knock off an Illinois team that is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins over Penn State, Iowa and Indiana, including the last two by 4 and 5 points each.

Now they step up in class here against a Wisconsin team that is one of the best in the country.  The Badgers just play the game the right way with their ability to defend, take care of the basketball and get great looks almost every time down the floor.  The Badgers give up just 62.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting.  They shoot the 3-pointer at a 37.6% clip on offense as well.

Wisconsin simply owns Illinois.  The Badgers are 15-1 SU & 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings with their lone loss coming by a single point.  Enough said.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +19.5

It's time to 'sell high' on Loyola-Chicago after going 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  With this winning and covering streak comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.

Loyola-Chicago hasn't been more than an 11-point favorite in any of its last 10 games.  Now all of a sudden the Ramblers are whopping 19.5-point favorites against an Evansville team that has been pretty competitive all season.

Indeed, Evansville has just two losses by more than 9 points all season.  The Purple Aces have gone 6-3 SU in their last nine games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games.  They should not be catching 19.5 points to Loyola-Chicago today.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Evansville Saturday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +4.5

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos tonight.  They have padded their 13-2 record by playing the easiest schedule of any Mountain West team to date.  They are nowhere near as good as their record, and they shouldn't be laying 4.5 points on the road to Nevada tonight.

Nevada has been grossly undervalued for weeks and continues to be.  The Wolf Pack are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They haven't lost any of their last 13 games by more than 7 points, so even when they have lost they have been competitive.  And I like their chances of staying within this number or possibly pulling off the upset tonight.

Nevada is 8-1 SU in its last nine meetings with Boise State.  The Wolf Pack are 49-21-2 ATS in their last 72 games following an ATS win.  Nevada is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Nevada Friday.

20* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +5.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost outright at home to Indiana 69-81 as 10-point dogs, lost 75-80 at Illinois as 3-point dogs, and only beat a struggling Michigan State team 84-78 as 9-point home favorites.  As you can see, their defense has been terrible in allowing 78 points or more in three straight, which has been their achilles' heel.

Speaking of Michigan State, Ohio State just blasted the Spartans 79-62 as 5.5-point home favorites last time out on Sunday.  The Buckeyes are now 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points to Purdue.

This is a terrible spot for Iowa, too.  The Hawkeyes will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after facing Michigan State on Tuesday.  They only have one day to prepare for Ohio State.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have three days in between games to get ready for the Hawkeyes after last playing the Spartans on Sunday.

The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Chris Holtmann is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games after three straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Ohio State.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +3.5

Tulsa has been a great home team and a terrible road team for years.  It's more of the same this season.  The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season.  They handed Houston their only loss of the season at home.  They also upset Memphis at home.

Speaking of Houston, SMU will have a tough time getting back up off the mat after a 48-70 loss at Houston last time out.  The Mustangs have now lost their last two road games as they also lost at Memphis.  This team has been grossly overvalued over the past month or so.  The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Tulsa has won its last two home meetings with SMU 79-57 as a 1.5-point favorite and 76-67 as a 3.5-point underdog.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs, including 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as home dogs of 3.5 points or fewer.  The Mustangs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  SMU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  Roll with Tulsa Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pitt Panthers.  They opened 8-2 this season with wins over Syracuse (twice) and Duke.  But they have now gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Now we are getting max value with the Panthers catching 4 points at home to Virginia Tech tonight.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Hokies.  They have won and covered two straight, including their upset home win over Virginia last time out.  That now makes this a letdown spot for the Hokies.  Virginia Tech is 2-2 SU in true road games this season with its only wins coming against Wake Forest and Notre Dame, two of the worst teams in the ACC.

Virginia Tech is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games off two consecutive conference games.  Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off two consecutive home losses.  The Hokies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Virginia Tech is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -8

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.  They will be motivated for revenge following their 71-81 upset loss at Penn State on Saturday.  Now they don't have to wait long for revenge as they host the Nittany Lions Tuesday night.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on a Penn State team that has won three of its last four games coming in.  But all three wins were at home, and the other two outside Wisconsin came over Rutgers and Northwestern by a combined 9 points.

Penn State is 0-5 SU in Big Ten road games this season.  Wisconsin is a perfect 17-0 SU in its last 17 home meetings with the Nittany Lions.  Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 17 road games after covering two of its last three ATS.  The Badgers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Roll with Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Clemson Tigers tonight.  They have lost four of their last five coming in with three of those coming on the road to Duke, Florida State and Georgia Tech.  They also lost at home to Virginia.

However, that home loss to Virginia was their only home loss this season.  They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this year which includes wins over Florida State, NC State and Louisville.  They will put their best foot forward tonight with the North Carolina Tar Heels coming to town.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels, who have won six of their last seven games overall.  But the only road wins during this stretch came at Miami and Pittsburgh by a combined 12 points.  The Tar Heels are just 2-4 SU in true road games this season.

North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off three or more consecutive wins.  The Tar Heels are 1-10 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  UNC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Illinois State +18

Illinois State only lost 76-78 to Drake in overtime yesterday.  The Redbirds were 19-point underdogs in that game and now come back as 18-point dogs to the Bulldogs in the rematch today.  This spread is just way too high.

Drake is starting to feel the pressure of keeping its perfect record (16-0) in tact.  And with that record comes expectations from oddsmakers that is tough to live up to.  Note that Drake has only been favored by more than 10.5 points just twice all season before this series with Illinois State.

Illinois State hasn't lost a game by more than 9 points since December.  Drake hasn't won any of its last three games by more than 7 points.  The Bulldogs haven't won any of their last eight meetings with the Redbirds by more than 16 points.

Illinois State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that attempt 15 or fewer free throws per game.  Bet Illinois State Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Bradley ML +102

The Bradley Braves will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five straight coming in, including the last three all by 7 points or fewer.  They will be out for revenge from their 57-60 road loss at Indiana State on Sunday.  Now they get to play them again here in the rematch Monday night.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Sycamores, who are fat and happy right now riding a five-game winning streak against a very soft schedule.  Four of the five wins have come by 8 points or fewer, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.  Their luck will run out tonight against a Braves team that simply wants it more.

Brian Wardle is 21-11 ATS when revenging a same-season loss as the coach of Bradley.  Wardle is 45-24 ATS when playing with one or less days' rest in all games as a head coach.  The Braves are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss.  Take Bradley Monday.

15* NC State/Syracuse ACC ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange have been a tough out at home this season.  They are 8-1 at home with their last two home games resulting in blowout wins over Miami by 26 and Virginia Tech by 18.  Now they should make easy work of a struggling NC State team tonight.

NC State is just 1-4 SU in its last five games overall.  The only win during this stretch came at home against Wake Forest by 5 as 7.5-point favorites.  The Wolf Pack are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with losses to Saint Louis by 11, Clemson by 4, FSU by 32 and UNC by 10.

Making matters worse for the Wolfpack is that they just lost their best player in Devon Daniels (16.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.1 APG) to a season-ending ACL injury in that win over Wake Forest last time out.  He had 20 points and eight rebounds before exiting.

The Wolfpack are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  NC State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wolfpack are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orange are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Syracuse is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a conference loss by 10 points or more.  The Wolfpack are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK.  Take Syracuse Sunday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +2.5

Southern Illinois will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They want to put an end to their currently six-game losing streak.  And they want revenge from a 62-74 home loss to Northern Iowa yesterday in which they blew a 30-27 halftime lead.

Northern Iowa is now just 5-10 SU & 3-10 ATS this season.  Two of those wins came against St. Ambrose and Coe College, who they just beat by 10 at home before taking down Southern Illinois.  And this is a Southern Illinois team that opened 7-1 this season and is grossly undervalued right now due to this losing streak.

The Salukis are 18-6 SU in their last 24 home meetings with Northern Iowa.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Southern Illinois is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Salukis are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The home team is 12-6-3 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after playing a home game.  Bet Southern Illinois Sunday.

20* Gonzaga/Pepperdine ESPN No-Brainer on Pepperdine +22

You're paying a tax to back Gonzaga right now because the Bulldogs are 16-0 this season and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  These spreads have gotten out of control, and that's a big reason why the Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

I backed Pepperdine successfully against Gonzaga in their first meeting this season, a 25-point loss as 27-point dogs.  The Waves now get the Bulldogs at home.  Pepperdine is now 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Gonzaga dating back to last year.  They only lost by 5 as +21 road dogs and by 12 as 15-point home dogs in their two meetings last year. 

Pepperdine is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  That includes blowout wins over Portland by 15 and Pacific by 17.  And after losing by 11 at BYU as 11-point dogs, the Waves came back home and upset the Cougars 76-73 as 6.5-point home dogs.  If they can play with BYU, they can certainly stay within 22 points of the Zags.  And keep in mind they only trailed Gonzaga by 4 at halftime in their first meeting this season.

The Waves are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following four straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Waves have two days to get ready for Gonzaga after playing BYU on Wednesday, while the Bulldogs have just one day to get ready for Pepperdine after playing at San Diego on Thursday.  Bet Pepperdine Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +4

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets had won five straight at home prior to losing two heartbreakers on the road against two of the best teams in the ACC in Virginia (62-64) and Duke (68-75).  Now they are back home here and will upset the Florida State Seminoles as 4-point home dogs.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Seminoles, who are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But FSU has feasted on a home-heavy schedule with 10 of its 12 games played at home this year.  It is just 1-1 SU in true road games with a 10-point loss at Clemson and an upset win at Louisville.

Georgia Tech also wants revenge from a 61-74 road loss at Florida State in their first meeting this season back in December.  The Yellow Jackets have improved by leaps and bounds since that defeat.  They are taking care of the ball and hanging with and beating some of the best teams in the country.

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following three straight games where it committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Yellow Jackets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. top teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season.  Georgia Tech is 49-23 ATS in its last 72 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Yellow Jackets are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Southern Illinois ML +116

Northern Iowa is just 4-10 SU & 2-10 ATS this season.  Yet somehow this team continues to get way more respect from oddsmakers than they deserve.  Now the Panthers are actually laying points on the road to a quality Southern Illinois team, so the respect continues.

Keep in mind two of their four wins this season came against St. Ambrose and Coe College.  And that win over Coe College came earlier this week by only 10 points, 70-60.  The Panthers remain without their best player in AJ Green (22.3 PPG), which is the biggest reason they have been awful this season.

Southern Illinois opened 7-1 this season before losing each of its last five games.  But four of those losses were on the road, and now is a great time to 'buy low' on the Salukis at home tonight.  They are 5-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 12.0 points per game.

Southern Illinois is 18-5 SU in its last 23 home meetings with Northern Iowa.  The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following an ATS loss.  The Salukis are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Salukis are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games.  Southern Illinois is 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The home team is 12-5-3 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Take Southern Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -2

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have won three of their last four games overall with their only loss coming to unbeaten Baylor.  That includes an upset home win over Kansas.  Their strength of schedule is much tougher than that of Arkansas, which plays in the weaker SEC.

I think we are getting great value on the Cowboys here as short 2-point home favorites over the Razorbacks.  That's especially the case with the expected return of star freshman Cade Cunningham (18.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.7 APG), who has missed the past two games with an illness.

Arkansas is 2-3 SU in true road games this season with its only wins coming against Auburn and Vanderbilt.  That was Auburn before they were any good with freshman Cooper ineligible, and that's a Vanderbilt team that is probably the worst team in the SEC.  They lost to LSU, Alabama and Tennessee by a combined 52 points.

Arkansas is 1-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma State is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. SEC opponents.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

25* SEC/Big 12 Challenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +15

The Auburn Tigers are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  This run has coincided with getting star freshman PG Sharife Cooper (22.3 PPG, 8.7 APG, 5.0 RPG) eligible.  With Cooper running the show, the Tigers can give unbeaten Baylor a run for its money today.

Auburn's four wins with Cooper came by 18 at Georgia, by 7 at home over Kentucky, by 23 at South Carolina and by 6 at home over Missouri.  One loss came by 4 as 3.5-point home dogs to Alabama, which has won 10 straight games currently and is blowing out everyone.  The other was a 2-point loss to Arkansas in which the Tigers blew a nearly 20-point lead in that game.

You're paying a tax to back Baylor right now because they are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS this season.  These spreads are starting to get out of control, and we'll fade the Bears every chance we get moving forward.  We faded them successfully with Kansas a few games back, and this looks like another great time to go against them.

The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Auburn is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a 69-81 upset home loss to the Indiana Hoosiers.  Their best shooter in CJ Fredrick had to leave that game with an injury and is unlikely to play tonight against the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Illinois is one of the best teams in the country.  And the Fighting Illini have the goods to slow down a guy like Iowa's Luka Garza better than almost any other team in the country.  That's because they have a big, athletic bruiser in 7-foot, 285-pound Kofi Cockburn (17.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG) inside.  He is one of the most improved players in the country.

Illinois is 13-3 SU in its last 16 home meetings with Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 32-52 ATS in their last 84 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Illinois is 59-37 ATS in its last 96 home games off a home win.  Iowa is 18-39-2 ATS in its last 59 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Illinois Friday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on California +8

The Cal Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They covered in losses to two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in UCLA (57-61) and USC (68-76) to show they could play with two of the best teams in the conference.

Now they are catching 8 points against one of the worst teams in the conference in the Arizona State Sun Devils.  They are 4-8 SU & 2-10 ATS this season.  They have won just one game by more than 8 points all season, and that came against Houston Baptist way back on November 29th.

The Sun Devils have lost six straight coming in.  That includes back-to-back losses to their biggest rival in Arizona.  It will be tough for them to get back up off the mat after getting swept by the Wildcats.  Plus, they only have two days to get ready for Cal after playing Arizona on Monday.  Cal last played on Saturday against USC and has four days to get ready for this game.

The Golden Bears just got leading scorer Matt Bradley (17.1 PPG) back from injury against USC after missing the previous five games.  Getting him back will give them a huge boost moving forward.  And Cal wants revenge from a 62-70 home loss to Arizona State back on December 3rd in their first meeting this season.  

The Sun Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Arizona State is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite, including 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as a home favorite.  The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take California Thursday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -3.5

The SMU Mustangs want revenge from a tough 72-76 loss at Memphis on Tuesday.  They don't have to wait long as they get to host the Tigers tonight and are laying 3.5 points in the rematch.  I fully expect them to get the win and cover at home tonight.

The Mustangs are 5-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Houston and Cincinnati.  They have been one of the best home teams in the country over the years.  And they own Memphis at home, going 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Tigers.  The home team is now 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Memphis is just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Their only road wins came against Tulane and East Carolina.  Tim Jankovich is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing with one or less days' rest as the coach of SMU.  Penny Hardaway is 2-9 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Memphis.  Roll with SMU Thursday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -1.5

The Clemson Tigers will be highly motivated for a win tonight after opening the season 9-1 and then going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Tigers, who are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Virginia.

Louisville is in a letdown spot after a big 70-65 win over Duke last time out.  They had lost to FSU by 13 and Miami by 6 in their two previous game.  And now they have to go on the road and face a Clemson team that is 3-0 SU in the last three home meetings in this series.  That includes their 77-62 home win over the Cardinals last year.

Clemson is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 games off two straight losses by 10 points or more.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Louisville is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  Roll with Clemson Wednesday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +14.5

Washington State is out for revenge from a 59-70 home loss to Colorado on January 23rd.  Now the Cougars don't have to wait long for revenge as they will square off again on January 27th here.  And that game was much closer than the final score showed as the Cougars led 37-30 at halftime before getting outscored by 18 points after intermission.

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Cougars after going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Buffaloes, who are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and had no business covering against Washington State as 10.5-point favorites.

Plays on road teams as an underdog or PK (Washington State) - off three straight conference losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 83-44 (65.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Washington State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Seton Hall ML +110

The Seton Hall Pirates want revenge from a bad road loss to Creighton on January 6th.  But this is a banged-up Creighton team now that has lost two of its last three with upset losses to Butler and Providence.  Their only win came against a depleted UConn team by 8 at home.

The Pirates only lost 74-76 at Villanova as 9-point dogs last time out.  And they have played three straight and four of their last five on the road, so they have been a victim of a tough schedule of late.  They won at Xavier and at DePaul and also topped Butler at home.  The Pirates are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.

Creighton is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite.  Seton Hall is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog.  The Pirates are 48-21 ATS in their last 69 games as underdogs.  They thrive in this roll and will win outright tonight.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Seton Hall on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -1.5

The Providence Friars just won outright as double-digit underdogs at Creighton.  Then they held a halftime lead at Villanova before falling apart in the second half over the weekend.  They were probably fatigued from having to play four straight road games and the toughest schedule in the Big East up to this point.

But now the Friars are back home for the first time since a 2-point loss to Creighton on January 2nd.  They are 4-1 at home this season with just five of their 15 games on their home floor.  This feels like a great spot to back this gritty team.  

The Friars want revenge from a 69-79 road loss at Marquette on January 12th.  That was really one of the few good performances the Golden Eagles have had recently.  They were just upset as 9-point home favorites by DePaul over the weekend.  The Blue Demons are the worst team in the Big East.  They are now just 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Marquette is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.  Providence is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Marquette is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent.  The Friars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when revenging a loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when revenging a same-season loss.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Butler +5.5

The Butler Bulldogs battled through some injury problems early in the season.  Their early results have them undervalued currently.  They have finally gotten healthy and played up to their potential here of late.

Indeed, they upset Creighton 70-66 as 7-point home dogs before winning 67-53 as 2-point dogs at DePaul.  Now they've have a full week to get ready for Connecticut after last playing on Tuesday, January 19th.  They will be out for revenge from a 60-72 home loss to the Huskies on January 9th as well.

UConn has really struggled of late.  They were upset 70-74 as 6.5-point home favorites against St. John's before losing 66-74 at Creighton in their last two games.  A big reason for their struggles is the loss of leading scorer James Bouknight (20.3 PPG) to injury.  He has missed the past four games and they haven't been the same team without him.

Butler is 56-36 ATS in its last 92 games when playing on 5 or 6 days' rest.  The Bulldogs are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games off an upset win as an underdog.  The Huskies only have two days to get ready for Butler after last playing on Saturday at Creighton.  Roll with Butler Tuesday.