Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -4

I love the spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs this afternoon.  They have played their way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by losing three consecutive games against an absolutely brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Kentucky and lost on the road to both Auburn and Texas A&M.

Now the Bulldogs return home on Senior Day and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 68-62 road loss at South Carolina in their first meeting this season.  I think they catch the Gamecocks at the perfect time.

South Carolina just lost to Tennessee 66-59 at home on Wednesday in a game that was for 1st place in the SEC.  The Volunteers won and won the outright SEC title as a result.  I think the Gamecocks are in a massive letdown and hangover spot from that defeat, and we will see one of their worst efforts of the season because of it.

Mississippi State is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with South Carolina.  The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU at home in SEC play with wins over both Tennessee and Auburn, which are the top two teams in the conference.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Alabama by a combined 10 points.  

Mississippi State is 80-37 ATS in its last 117 games after losing three of its last four games.  The Bulldogs are 148-113 ATS in their last 261 games revenging a loss.  Mississippi State is 41-21 ATS in its last 62 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Bulldogs.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Villanova ML +105

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Wildcats have gone 6-3 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their three losses all coming on the road to UConn, Seton Hall and Xavier.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home during this stretch with four blowout wins over Providence by 18, Seton Hall by 26, Butler by 10 and Georgetown by 28.

The Wildcats could punch their ticket with a 2nd win over Creighton this season and will be max motivated to do so.  They beat Creighton 68-66 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home meetings with the Bluejays and have really had their number.

Creighton is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East road games with two narrow wins over Xavier and Seton Hall as well as a blowout win over reeling Butler.  They lost by 14 at UConn, lost by 4 at Providence and lost by 14 at St. John's in their most recent road game.  They are clearly vulnerable away from home.   The Bluejays don't have much to play for either as they are locked into the 2nd or 3rd seed in the Big East Tournament.

Villanova is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 this season.  The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in home games when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Villanova is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Villanova on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 223rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  The Sooners are without John Hugley IV (8.4 PPG, 54.8% FG's) and could be without Javian McCollum (13.6 PPG), who missed their last game with a shoulder injury and is questionable.

Texas also plays slower than average ranking 209th in adjusted tempo and 47th in adjusted defense.  Leading scorer Dylan Disu (16.1 PPG, 51.4% 3-pointers) was forced from their last game early with a knee injury and is questionable to go Saturday as well.

But the biggest reason for this UNDER play is the head-to-head history between hated rivals Oklahoma and Texas.  The Sooners and Longhorns have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation five of their last six meetings and 146 in the one that didn't.  This has been an UNDER series.

Oklahoma is 7-1 UNDER in its last eight games vs. a good team that wins 60-80% of its games.  The Sooners are 20-8 UNDER in their last 28 games when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rodney Terry is 9-1 UNDER after allowing 90 points or more as a head coach.  Terry is 10-1 UNDER after a combined score of 175 points or more as a head coach.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Memphis/FAU CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +7

Memphis (22-8) has played its way back onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing some clutch basketball here down the stretch.  The Tigers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Charlotte by 24 at home as 6-point favorites, upsetting FAU 78-74 as 1.5-point home dogs, crushing ECU by 24 as 4.5-point road favorites and crushing UAB by 19 as 7-point home favorites.

Now the Tigers get a chance to beat FAU for a 2nd time this season which would almost surely get them in the Big Dance.  I know we will get their best effort, and fading Florida Atlantic has been a very profitable endeavor for myself and premium clients in AAC play this season.

FAU has been grossly overvalued in conference play after making the Final 4 last year and beating Arizona in the non-conference.  The Owls are just 5-12 ATS in conference play this season and have been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, they have seven wins by 10 points or less in conference play despite this conference being way down.

Memphis is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS in this role under current head coach Penny Hardaway.  Bet Memphis Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arkansas/Alabama OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games, including 95 or more in seven of those.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in six of their last eight games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 166 or more combined points in eight of those nine games, including 175 or more in seven of those.

Arkansas likes to run as well ranking 34th in adjusted tempo, so this game is going to be played at a rapid pace.  The Razorbacks have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive games.  They have also allowed 83 or more in three striaght, which is really bad when you consider LSU and Vanderbilt were two of those teams.

Arkansas is 12-1 OVER following a win this season.  The Razorbacks are 10-1 OVER after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Alabama ESPN No-Brainer on Arkansas +15

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been fighting hard for head coach Eric Musselman here down the stretch.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 11-point dogs at Mississippi State, upset Texas A&M 78-71 as 11.5-point road dogs and took Kentucky to the wire in a 9-point loss at 13-point dogs in their last three road games.

Now the Razorbacks are catching too many points today against a reeling, overrated Alabama team that doesn't play defense.  The Crimson Tide are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Florida at home and needed to overcome a double-digit 2H deficit to beat Ole Miss.  They lost by 22 at Kentucky, by 7 at home to Tennessee and by 18 at Florida.  They have allowed 81 or more points in all five games and seven of their last eight games overall.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive games where they had five or fewer steals.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Boise State/San Diego State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 137.5

San Diego State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Aztecs rank 248th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted defense.  Boise State also likes to play slow ranking 221st in adjusted tempo and 33rd in adjusted defense.  That's why it is no surprise that a defensive battle is usually the result when these two teams get together.

Indeed, the UNDER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and would be 8-0 in the last eight if not for OT.  Boise State and San Diego State have combined for 134 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have averaged just 116.3 combined points at the end of regulation in those eight meetings, so we have about 21 points to spare here with this 137.5-point total.  

San Diego State is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine March games.  The Aztecs are 12-1 UNDER in their last 13 games following three or more consecutive unders.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -10.5

Head coach Brian Wardle always has his Bradley Braves (21-10) playing their best basketball in the MVC Tournament.  The Braves will be ready for another run in 2024, and it starts today against lowly Illinois-Chicago (12-20).

Bradley has a rest advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals while Illinois-Chicago needed 2 OT to beat Southern Illinois 84-82 last night.  It's safe to say the Flames will be running on fumes tonight.  Three starters played at least 46 minutes for the Flames last night and they have just a 7-man rotation with zero depth  They won't have anything left in the tank for Bradley.

Bradley beat Illinois-Chicago 77-59 on the road and 85-73 at home.  So they have already covered this 10.5-point spread in both meetings this season, and that domination should continue in the 3rd and final meeting given their rest advantage.  Bet Bradley Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Evansville/Drake UNDER 150.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Evansville beat Illinois State 59-53 for just 112 combined points yesterday.  This opening total of 150.5 against Drake has been set way too high today.  Evansville is terrible offensively ranking 232nd in adjusted offense while averaging just 61.3 points per game in its last four game.  Drake ranks 85th in adjusted defense and will hold the Purple Aces in check.

Drake beat Evansville 97-48 for 145 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Drake won 78-75 in the 2nd meeting but both teams shot lights out, which is unlikely to happen again.  Drake shot 13-of-27 (48.1%) from 3 while Evansville shot 50% from the field and 8-of-18 (44.4%) from 3.  Yet that game still only saw 153 combined points.  This game likely won't be as close with Drake winning in a blowout, which should mean no FT's at the end in the foul game.

Evansville is a perfect 11-0 UNDER after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Purple Aces are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Belmont/Northern Iowa UNDER 153.5

MVC Tournament UNDERS have been a great bet for the last decade hitting around 65%.  That includes 3-1 to start the 2024 MVC Tournament which would be 4-0 if the Illinois-Chicago/Southern Illinois game didn't go to OT.  The Enterprise Center in St. Louis is clearly one of the worst shooting backgrounds in the country.

Northern Iowa ranks 239th in adjusted tempo and likes to slow it down.  The Panthers will have to try to slow it down to a snail's pace to counteract Belmont.  I don't know that it will work as Belmont is pretty efficient offensively, but it gives them their best chance to win.

Belmont has really picked it up defensively here down the stretch which has been the key to their 8-1 run.  They have held six of their last nine opponents to 68 points or fewer and I think they can do the same against Northern Iowa, which struggles offensively.  The Panthers have held 12 of their last 16 opponents to 72 points or fewer.  I'd be surprised if either team got to 80 points in this one, which is what it will take for us to lose this UNDER.

Belmont is 13-1 UNDER after winning four or five of its last six games this season.  Belmont doesn't get to the FT line often averaging just 18 attempts per game.  But they don't foul either giving up 16 attempts per game.  Northern Iowa is also great at playing defensive without fouling allowing 17 attempts per game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Belmont +1.5

Belmont is playing better than anyone in the MVC since they got fully healthy.  I bet the Bruins +2100 to win the MVC Tournament and you can still find +1900 out there heading into this game.  You'll likely see me back this team in every game until they lose because they are grossly undervalued.

Belmont is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its lone loss coming on the road to Drake, which didn't lose a single home game this season.  Seven of the eight wins came by 15 points or more so these games haven't even been close.  That includes their 86-61 win over Valparaiso in the opener of the MVC Tournament.  They led by 26 at halftime and were able to get their starters rest in the 2H and will still be fresh for this game.

While most MVC teams have struggled shooting at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis over the years including to open this tournament, Belmont has not.  The Bruins shot 52.4% as a team and made 10 3-pointers yesterday.  This is one of the best shooting teams in the country since they got healthy, shooting 47.4% or better in seven of their last eight games, including 50% or better in five of them.

Northern Iowa can't match Belmont in the shooting department and has slipped defensively this season.  Belmont shot 52.6% in a 90-70 win at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  The Bruins shot a solid 47.5% and 40% from 3 in a home loss to the Panthers in the rematch, but they weren't fully healthy for that game.  Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.5 PPG, 57% FG)  scored 18 points in that first meeting which was a win, and he didn't play in the game that they lost to UNI.  Having him healthy has made all the difference for this team.  Bet Belmont Friday.

15* ASU/USC FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 144

USC has been an OVER team when they've been healthy.  Well, the Trojans are fully healthy right now and having no problem scoring.  They have gone 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall with 147 or more combined points in five of those seven games, including 157 or more in four of those.

Arizona State is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall and has allowed 77 or more points in eight of its last 11 games, including 80 or more seven times.  Both teams like to play with pace as ASU ranks 79th in adjusted tempo while USC ranks 123rd.

Arizona State beat USC 82-67 earlier this season for 149 combined points.  Neight team shot well in that game as ASU shot 42.9% overall and 30.8% from 3, while USC shot 46.6% overall but just 4-of-14 (26.7%) from 3.  USC was without its top two scorers in Isaiah Collier (17.0 PPG) and Boogie Ellis (16.6 PPG) in that contest as well.  Both are healthy now and thriving.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 146 or more combined points in three of the four.  USC is 12-2 OVER vs. teams that average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Cal/Stanford ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 154.5

Analysis will be posted shortly.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt/Kentucky OVER 160.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 8th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 21-8 OVER in all games this season, including 14-3 OVER in its 17 home games where it is scoring 94.2 points per game on 53.5% shooting while also allowing 79.1 points per game at home.

Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 109-77 for 186 combined points in the first meeting this season on February 6th.  So we have 25.5 points to spare with this 160.5-point total in the rematch.  It should be another shootout, and Vanderbilt scored 77 points despite shooting just 35.5% from the field in that first meeting.  I have to expect they'll shoot a little better in the rematch.

The Wildcats are 17-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 8-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough this season and they have failed to do so again tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College/Miami OVER 151.5

Both Boston College (15-14) and Miami (15-14) have nothing to play for at this point.  Both are playing like it defensively giving up massive point totals here down the stretch.  Don't expect either to get after it defensively tonight, either.

Miami has allowed 75 or more points in six consecutive games and has lost seven in a row overall.  Boston College has allowed 77 or more points in six of its last seven games and the OVER is 6-0 in its last six games overall.  I expect both teams to get 75-plus points tonight.

Boston College beat Miami 85-77 for 162 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 17th.  It should be more of the same in the rematch with yet another shootout.

Miami is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after going under the total in its previous game.  Boston College is 8-1 OVER in its last nine March games.  The Eagles are 7-1 OVER off three or more consecutive overs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Nevada/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 143.5

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off tonight when Boise State hosts Nevada.  Boise State ranks 231st in adjusted tempo and 31st in adjusted defense.  Nevada ranks 243rd in adjusted tempo and 38th in adjusted defense.  Both teams prefer to slow it down and rely on defense.

That has played out in this head-to-head series as well.  Boise State beat Nevada 64-56 for just 120 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 12th with a 140-point total.  The books have no business raising this total to 143.5 tonight.  That's especially the case when you consider Boise State and Nevada have combined for 140 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.

Nevada may still be without Kenan Blackshear (15.2 PPG, 49.7% FG's), who has missed the last two games and is questionable to play tonight.  Nevada is 12-5 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Boise State is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 home games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -13.5

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  The Demon Deacons are squarely on the bubble now after losing consecutive road games at Notre Dame and at Virginia Tech following up their upset home win over Duke.  They already beat Georgia Tech 80-51 on the road, and they cannot afford to take the Yellow Jackets lightly now.

Wake Forest is back home now where they are 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game.  Few of these games have even been close, and I like their chances of winning this game by 14 points or more to get us the cover given what's at stake.

Wake Forest is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season and winning by 20.0 points per game in this spot.  Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better and losing by 26.1 points per game in this spot.  Bet Wake Forest Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh -7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers (19-10, 10-8 ACC) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now.  This despite going 9-3 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with upset road wins over Duke, NC State and Virginia.  They are coming off a 25-point win at Boston College as well.

We'll get a fully focused effort from the Panthers tonight knowing they are on the bubble.  They should make easy work ofa. bad Florida State team that is just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are coming off an 85-76 road loss to a very bad Georgia Tech team.  They have lost four of their last five ACC road games all by 8 points or more.

Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS as a favorite this season.  Florida State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's -17

St. John's has played its way back on the bubble by winning three consecutive games.  The last two were very impressive as the Red Storm upset Creighton 80-66 as 3-point home dogs and crushed fellow bubble team Butler 82-59 on the road.  Now the Red Storm have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for DePaul.

St. John's crushed DePaul 85-57 at home as 22-point favorites in their first meeting on February 6th.  Now they come back as only 17-point favorites in the rematch which is quite the discount.  I have a motivated favorite here trying to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Red Storm will not take their foot off the gas.

Fading DePaul has been a great move here of late.  The Blue Demons are a mess after firing head coach Tony Stubblefield and just ready for this season to be over.  They are 0-18 SU & 6-12 ATS in Big East play this season while getting outscored by 23.7 points per game.  They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall eight of those losses by double-digits and seven by 19 points or more.

DePaul is 1-7 ATS as a home underdog of 10 points or more this season.  St. John's is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Blue Demons are 1-11 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Bet St. John's Tuesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida -7.5

South Florida is one of the most underrated teams in the entire country.  The Bulls have gone 22-5 SU & 18-7-2 ATS this season including 14-2 SU & 12-3-1 ATS at home.  Yet, many feel they are out of the NCAA Tournament if they don't win the conference tournament.  Money keeps pouring in against this team every game, and they just keep getting the money playing with a chip on their shoulder.

The Bulls have gone 20-1 SU & 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 14 consecutive victories.  Now they face a Tulane team that is ready for this season to be over.  The Green Wave are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  

They lost by 12 at Memphis, by 8 at home to SMU, by 14 at East Carolina, by 11 at home to UAB and by 4 at home to North Texas.  They did show some life last game only because they are facing Florida Atlantic, which made the Final 4 last year.  I don't think they will show any life tonight after coming up just short against FAU with a late comeback.  Bet South Florida Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +15.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country in the 2nd half of the season under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  The Fighting Irish are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with upset wins over Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.  Their lone loss came by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

Now the Fighting Irish are ready to give North Carolina a run for its money.  The Tar Heels are in a big sandwich spot here coming off a 79-70 home win over NC State, plus with another big rivalry game on deck against Duke that will decide the ACC regular season champion.  The Tar Heels lead the Blue Devils by one game so they can afford to lose this game knowing that they can still win that game against Duke to win the title.

North Carolina is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Notre Dame is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Fighting Irish are a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Alabama/Florida OVER 175.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine of their last 10 games, including 95 or more in seven of those ten.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last seven games.  The OVER is 7-1 in Alabama's last eight games overall with 166 or more combined points in seven of those eight games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Alabama is coming off an under which is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Alabama shot just 38.3% and Tennessee shot 36.4% yet they still combined for 155 points.  I also think this total is lower because Alabama and Florida played on February 21st and both shot terribly in a game that saw 170 combined points at the end of regulation before going to OT.  Alabama shot 44% and 8-of-32 (25%) from 3 while Florida shot 43.2% and 9-of-30 (30%) from 3.  I have to think both teams will shoot better in the rematch.

Florida has a similar profile to Alabama liking to play fast ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo while also being one of the best offensive teams in the country ranking 15th in adjusted offense.  The OVER is 4-1 in Gators last five games overall.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in road games off an ATS loss this season.  Florida is 7-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Purdue/Illinois OVER 163.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 162 or more combined points in all nine games.  The OVER is 13-1 in their 14 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 163.5 points today.

Now Illinois faces Purdue, which also doesn't mind playing fast and does it efficiently ranking 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency.  Purdue beat Illinois 83-78 in their first meeting this season for 161 combined points.  This despite Illinois not having its best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG).  He makes all the difference for the Fighting Illini and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois has looked to run a lot more with Shannon Jr., who leads the country in fast break points.

These are two of the top seven OVER teams in the entire country as Illinois is 21-8 OVER in all games this season while Purdue is 20-9 OVER in all games.  Illinois is 18-2 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -1.5

Purdue already clinched at least a share of the Big Ten title with an 80-74 home win as 10-point favorites over Michigan State on Saturday.  They rained down confetti and celebrated the feat at home.  Now they are in a massive letdown spot here on the road at Illinois, especially knowing they have a home game against Wisconsin still on deck to win the title outright if need be.

Illinois doesn't have the same luxury.  The Fighting Illini can pull within one game of Purdue for first place in the Big Ten with a win here tonight.  They want revenge from an 83-78 road loss at Purdue on January 5th in their first meeting this season.  But they didn't have their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. (22.0 PPG) for that game due to suspension.  He makes all the difference for this team, and he has scored at least 23 points in six of his last seven games overall.  Illinois hasn't lost at home in Big Ten play with Shannon Jr. in the lineup.

The Boilermakers are kind of just going through the motions right now knowing they have a #1 seed pretty much locked up in the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They went to the wire at home with Minnesota and Michigan State, and also lost outright at Ohio State and went to the wire with Michigan on the road.  This is a big step up in class for the Boilermakers compared to what they have been facing here of late.  The spot really favors the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Tuesday.

20* Alabama/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida +1

The Florida Gators want revenge from a 98-93 (OT) loss at Alabama on February 21st just two weeks ago.  They led that game by double-digits in the final 10 minutes but blew the lead and lost in OT.  But now Florida is back home where they are 13-1 SU this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the SEC.

Alabama is coming off a crushing 81-74 home loss to Tennessee in a game that likely decided the SEC regular season championship.  I don't think the Crimson Tide will be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat.  Plus, Alabama hasn't been able to beat good teams on the road this season.  The Crimson Tide lost by 20 at Tennessee, by 18 at Auburn and by 22 at Kentucky.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* Stanford/Colorado FS1 No-Brainer on Colorado -12

The Colorado Buffaloes have come up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have won three consecutive games including blowout home wins over Utah by 24 and California by 10 in their last two games.  They improved to 15-1 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Now the Buffaloes are playing their final home game this season meaning it is Senior Night.  They will be max motivated, and I expect them to win with plenty of room to spare against a Stanford Cardinal team that looks to have quit on head coach Jerod Haase.

Indeed, the Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 20 at Washington, by 13 at Washington State, by 13 at home to Oregon, by 12 at home to Oregon State and by 22 at Utah.  They haven't even been competitive in these games, and now this will be their toughest game during this stretch tonight at Colorado.

Stanford is 1-8 ATS  in its last nine games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet Colorado Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -8.5

Nebraska is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in Big Ten home games this season.  Now the Huskers will be highly motivated to keep that perfect conference home record intact on Senior Night Sunday.  I expect them to blow out Rutgers similar to their last three home games where they beat Minnesota by 18, Penn State by 19 and Michigan by 20.  Rutgers is on those three teams' level.

Rutgers is 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  They lost by 28 at Purdue and by 11 at Minnesota in their last two conference road games.  The Scarlet Knights don't have much to play for right now as they are headed to the NIT at best if they don't win the Big Ten Tournament.

Nebraska is also extra motivated for revenge from a 87-82 (OT) loss at Rutgers.  This one screams double-digit blowout in the Huskers' favor tonight.  Bet Nebraska Sunday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -4

Drake (24-6) still has an outside shot of winning the MVC trailing Indiana State by one game.  The Bulldogs also believe they are still alive for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.  They have a lot to play for right now and are playing like it.

Drake has one of the best home-court advantages in the MVC going a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season and will be highly motivated to protect that perfect home mark on Senior Night today.  They already beat Bradley 74-67 on the road earlier this season and crushed the Braves 77-51 in the MVC Tournament last year.

Bradley doesn't have nearly as much to play for as the Braves are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the MVC Tournament and have no shot at an at-large.  The Braves have lost three of their last five MVC road games and should not be getting this much respect.

Drake is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after winning eight or more of its last 10 games.  Bradley is 2-17 ATS in its last 19 road games with a total set of 145 to 149.5.  Bet Drake Sunday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +14.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the UNLV Rebels.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and getting very fortunate in close games recently.  They beat Colorado State by 6 at home and followed it up with a 75-69 (OT) win at Wyoming last time out having no business covering as 5.5-point favorites.

Now the Rebels are in a sandwich spot here with their next two games against San Diego State and Nevada likely to determine their NCAA Tournament hopes to close out the regular season.  I don't think they come with their best effort here, and we saw what happened to them when that was the case against Air Force at home as 11-point favorites in a game they lost by 32 points.

San Jose State showed some life in a 72-64 loss at 21.5-point dogs at San Diego State last time out.  The Aztecs continue to show up for head coach Tim Miles.  They lost 77-65 at home to UNLV in their first meeting this season on January 27th.  But UNLV shot 68.2% as a team including 46.7% from 3-point range.  I cannot expect the Rebels to shoot that well again in the rematch.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (San Jose State) - revenging a home loss by 10 points or more, off two straight conference losses are 175-109 (61.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNLV was a 3.5-point road favorite in that first meeting with the Spartans and is now a 14.5-point home favorite in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on TCU +7

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the BYU Cougars.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, coming back from double-digits down in the 2H to upset Kansas 76-68 on the road.  Nobody beats Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, and it was a huge accomplishment.  But now comes the natural letdown following that victory.

BYU has been shaky at home of late with each of its last three victories coming by 7 points or less, including a 2-point win as 12.5-point favorites over UCF and a 6-point win as 11-point favorites over Kansas State.  The Cougars are once again getting too much respect here as 7-point favorites over a much better TCU team.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Horned Frogs off a 62-54 home loss to Baylor on Monday.  They are rested and ready to go getting four days off in between games.  TCU has actually played its best basketball on the road this season, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five Big 12 road games with upset wins at Baylor and Kansas State, as well as a 1-point loss at Texas Tech.

I like the matchup for TCU too because they are an elite offensive team in transition while BYU's transition defense is suspect.  I think they can get a lot of easy points out in transition to stay within this inflated number and possibly pull off the upset.  TCU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +1.5

Missouri is 0-15 SU in SEC play this season.  But the Tigers continue to fight going 3-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  One of those games was a 79-76 road loss to Ole Miss on February 17th.  Now the Tigers have a great shot to get that elusive first conference win as they host the Rebels this time around.

Ole Miss looks like it has quit.  The Rebels are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with five of those losses coming by double-digits, including each of the last three.  This run has eliminated them from NCAA Tournament contention when they were safely in the field just a month ago.  They won't be motivated at all to beat Missouri again tonight.

Ole Miss is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games after losing three of its last four games.  Missouri is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  The Tigers nearly upset Tennessee in a 5-point loss in their last home game, and they will pull off the upset tonight.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

25* CBB TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Tennessee/Alabama OVER 169

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in nine consecutive games, including 95 or more in seven of those nine.  They play even faster and are even more efficient at home where they are averaging 95.8 points per game.

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 88 or more points in five of their last six games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Alabama's last seven games overall with 166 or more combined points in all seven games, including 175 or more in six of those.

Rick Barnes has the best offensive team he has had at Tennessee.  The Vols rank 16th in adjusted offense and 65th in adjusted tempo.  They have scored 86 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.  They put up 91 on Alabama in their first meeting this season.  But Alabama only scored 71 thanks to 4-of-21 (19%) shooting from 3-point range.  They will shoot much better at home, where they make 41.6% from 3 on the season.  Both teams should get 85-plus in this one.

Alabama is 8-0 OVER after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games this season.  The Crimson Tide are 11-1 OVER when playing against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  Tennessee is 15-7 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Houston/Oklahoma UNDER 130

Houston is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cougars rank 347th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  They are also known for going on long scoring droughts on offense.  Points will be very hard to come by for both teams today.

Speaking of offensive scoring droughts, Oklahoma only managed 45 points against Iowa State last time out and has scored 66 or fewer in five of its last seven while going 5-1 UNDER in its last six.  The Sooners also play slow ranking 233rd in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense.

Oklahoma is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games off two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame +6.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the ACC from the beginning of the season up until now.  Micah Shrewsberry was a great hire and it was going to take some time.  But the Fighting Irish are really enjoying playing the role of spoiler here down the stretch.

Indeed, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch and coming off a 70-65 upset win over Wake Forest as 6.5-point dogs.  Wake Forest is in the same class as Clemson, and the Fighting Irish should not be catching 6.5 points again at home today to the Tigers.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson after going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers have played four of their last five games at home.  Now they hit the road where things won't come as easy for them.

Notre Dame is 11-4 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Brad Brownell is 11-21 ATS in road games after winning six or seven of his last eight games as the coach of Clemson.  Shrewsberry is 11-1 ATS in March games as a head coach.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on K-State/Cincinnati UNDER 140.5

Both Kansas State and Cincinnati are dead nuts UNDER teams who like to slow down the pace and play elite defense.  Cincinnati ranks 194th in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.  Kansas State ranks 212th in adjusted tempo and 19th in adjusted defense.  The Wildcats are the 3rd-worst offensive team in the Big 12 while the Bearcats are the 5th-worst.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Cincinnati's last 10 games overall.  The Wildcats are 13-4 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU/Richmond UNDER 136

Two dead nuts UNDER teams square off today with a lot at stake in the Atlantic 10 and points will be at a premium as a result.  VCU beat Richmond 63-52 for just 115 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The Rams and Spiders have now combined for 136 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings with 139 being the lone exception, so there's clearly value on this UNDER 136.

Richmond ranks 225th in adjusted tempo, 141st in adjusted offense and 26th in adjusted defense.  VCU plays even slower ranking 297th in adjusted tempo, 122nd in adjusted offense and 45th in adjusted defense.  So clearly both teams hang their hat on defense.

VCU is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on USC/Washington OVER 153.5

Washington is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Huskies rank 27th in adjusted tempo and 34th in adjusted offense this season.  The OVER is 8-3 in Washington's last 11 games overall with 162 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

USC has been an OVER team when they've been fully healthy with Collier (16.3 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Ellis (16.5 PPG) on the court at the same time, which is the case right now.  They rank 114th in adjusted tempo and like to push the pace as well.  The OVER is 4-2 in their last six games overall.

USC beat Washington 80-74 for 154 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  Amazingly, they were missing both Collier and Bronny James in this game and it still got to 154 points despite USC shooting just 4-of-22 (18%) from 3-point range.  

I have to expect they will shoot better in the rematch, and I know Washington will shoot better than the 43.6% they shot in that first meeting.  The Huskies are shooting 51.4% at home this season including 40.2% from 3-point range.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Minnesota OVER 150.5

The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota's last six games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The Gophers are 42nd in adjusted offense this season but not a very good defensive team as they have allowed 70 or more points in six consecutive games.

Penn State is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 50th in adjusted tempo.  The OVER is 6-2 in their last eight games overall with 152 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  This total of 150.5 is too low for a game involving Penn State and Minnesota right now with the way they are playing.  These are two of the four worst defensive teams in the Big Ten this season.

Minnesota beat Penn State 83-74 on January 27th in their first meeting this season in a game that saw 157 combined points.  This was a shootout despite the fact that both teams shot poorly from 3-point range, combining for 9-of-33 (27.3%) in that first meeting.  I have to think both will shoot it better from distance in the rematch.

Minnesota is 6-0 OVER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.  Penn State is 15-4 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Marquette/Creighton FOX ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 154.5

Creighton has this false perception as an over team which consistently has oddsmakers setting their totals too high.  But the Bluejays play slow ranking 235th in adjusted tempo and are an elite defensive team ranking 23rd in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home today against Marquette.

The Golden Eagles are a good offensive team, but they are even better defensively this season which is why they are a contender.  They rank 15th in adjusted defense.  Tyler Kolek (15.0 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) was forced from the last game with an oblique injury and is very questionable to play today.  They would be without one of their best scorers but also one of their worst defenders if he cannot go today.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Marquette and Creighton with 144 or fewer combined points in all four.  They have combined for 144 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings as well.  Marquette beat Creighton 72-67 for just 139 combined points in their first meeting this season.

Marquette is 9-1 UNDER after going over the total in its previous game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-0 UNDER in their last 10 road games after scoring 85 points or more.  Creighton is 8-0 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Arizona ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +13.5

Oregon (19-9) is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Ducks have a great opportunity to get in if they beat Arizona today.  They will be max motivated, and I trust head coach Dana Altman to come up with the right game plan to keep the Ducks competitive in this one Saturday.

Oregon was only a 3.5-point home underdog in its first meeting with Arizona in which the Wildcats shot 10-of-19 (52.6%) from 3-point range to win by 9.  Now the Ducks are 13.5-point dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.  The Wildcats will not shoot that well again.

Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers last game.  Altman is 50-36 ATS as a road underdog or PK as the coach of Oregon.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky CBS No-Brainer on OVER 166

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 6th in adjusted offense, plus this is one of John Calipari's worst defensive teams since he took over in Lexington.  Kentucky is 20-8 OVER in all games this season, including 13-3 OVER in its 16 home games where it is scoring 93.2 points per game on 53.3% shooting while also allowing 78.8 points per game at home.

Arkansas also likes to get out and run ranking 49th in adjusted tempo.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 OVER in their last eight games overall.  They won't mind getting out and running with the Wildcats today.

I think the first meeting between these teams with Kentucky and Arkansas both missing key players is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Kentucky won 63-57 for just 120 combined points.  But the pace was there and the shooting wasn't.  Arkansas shot 20-of-60 (33.3%) while Kentucky shot 23-of-63 (36.5%).  It's safe to say both teams will shoot a lot better in the rematch.

Kentucky is 9-0 OVER off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Wildcats are 16-2 OVER after a combined score of 165 points or more this season.  Kentucky is 7-0 OVER in SEC home games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Total DOMINATOR on Illinois/Wisconsin OVER 153.5

Illinois is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Fighting Illini rank 60th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in adjusted offense this season.  Brad Underwood has by far his best offensive team in his time at Illinois, but it's also his worst defensive team.  The Fighting Illini look to run every chance they get and nobody has been able to stop them.

Illinois is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games overall with 162 or more combined points in all eight games.  The OVER is 12-1 in their 13 games overall as well.  The books just haven't been able to set their totals high enough probably because of the perception of the Big Ten, and we're getting another good value on the OVER 153.5 points today.

Wisconsin has one of the best offenses of the Greg Gard era ranking 17th in the country in adjusted offense.  But the Badgers are also one of the worst defensive teams under Gard, which is a big reason they have lost six of their last eight games coming in while allowing 70 or more points in seven of those eight games.  The OVER is 11-4 in Wisconsin's 15 home games this season where they are scoring 78.2 points per game and shooting 49.9%.

Illinois is 11-0 OVER off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 8-1 OVER after playing a road game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +15.5

Florida Atlantic has been grossly overvalued in conference play this season after making the Final 4 last year.  The Owls join the American Athletic and are finding the sledding much tougher in a better conference.  They are just 4-11 ATS in conference games this season with just one win by more than 15 points, making for a 14-1 system working against them.  They should not be laying 15.5 points to Tulane today.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Tulane after going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Green Wave have kind of been going through the motions, but like everyone else in this conference, Florida Atlantic will get their attention after making the Final 4 last year.  Plus, the Green Wave want revenge from a 85-84 home loss to FAU as 7-point dogs in their first meeting this season, so they have already proven they can play with them.

Tulane has played 27 games this season and has just one loss by more than 14 points all season.  That makes for a 26-1 system backing the Green Wave pertaining to this 15.5-point spread.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

20* Villanova/Providence FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 136

Villanova is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Wildcats rank 345th in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted defense.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Villanova's last seven games overall with 234 or fewer combined points in all seven games.  This total of 136 is too high for a game involving Villanova right now.

Providence is an elite defensive team as well ranking 20th in the country in adjusted defense.  The Friars are struggling to score right now without Bryce Hopkins (15.5 PPG).  Villanova is also possibly without two key players in TJ Bamba (10.5 PPG) and Jordan Longino (6.6 PPG), who are both questionable.  The Wildcats struggle to score as it is even with these guys in the lineup.

Villanova beat Providence 68-50 for just 118 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 4th.  It will be a similar defensive struggle in the rematch today as familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

Villanova is 9-1 UNDER vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Dayton/Loyola-Chicago ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137

Dayton and Loyola-Chicago are tied for 2nd place in the Atlantic 10 at 12-3 this season just one game behind Richmond.  There is a lot at stake for both teams tonight, and I expect this game to be played close to the vest, which is going to lead to a defensive battle as a result.

Dayton ranks 349th in adjusted tempo out of 362 teams in the entire country.  The Flyers are once again a great defensive team this season ranking 61st in adjusted defense.  They face a Loyola-Chicago team that is just 183rd in adjusted offense but 38th in adjusted defense and hang their hats on that end.

These teams met last year at Loyola-Chicago with a 65-49 win for Dayton and just 114 combined points.  The Ramblers are 10-4-1 UNDER in all home games this season where they are allowing just 61.1 points per game and 35.4% shooting.  Eight of Loyola-Chicago's last nine home games have seen 139 or fewer combined points.  Seven of Dayton's last eight road games have seen 138 or fewer combined points.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Quinnipiac/Iona OVER 150.5

Quinnipiac is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bobcats rank 18th in the country in adjusted tempo.  They score 78.4 points per game this season.  But they have quit playing defense during their current four-game losing streak which has seen them allow 80-plus points in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five games with 157 or more combined points in four of the five.

Iona also prefers to play up-tempo ranking 153rd in adjusted tempo while pressing the entire game.  We saw what happened when these two teams got together on January 21st in their first meeting this season and it was an absolute shootout.  Quinnipiac won 91-87 for 178 combined points.  We have 27.5 points to spare here in the rematch in what should be another track meet.

Iona is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Gonzaga/San Francisco ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +3.5

Both Gonzaga and San Francisco are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But Gonzaga looks more in than San Francisco right now, which means the Don need this game more.  The Bulldogs have a huge game on deck against St. Mary's on Saturday, and a win there would likely get them in the Big Dance.  They could be caught looking ahead to that game.

This is the best chance for the Dons to get a signature win, so they will be 'all in' to get it tonight.  Plus, they want revenge from a 77-72 road loss at Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  The Bulldogs shot 20 more free throws than they did, and that was the difference.  I think they will get the benefit of the whistle at home this time around.

Nobody in the WCC has played Gonzaga and St. Mary's tougher than San Francisco has.  The Dons also lost by just 4 at St. Mary's two games ago.  It's time for them to get rewarded for their efforts tonight.  They are 14-1 SU at home this season.

The Dons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  San Francisco is 7-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Santa Clara -9.5

Santa Clara has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since getting into conference play.  The Broncos played a very difficult non-conference schedule which prepared them for this.  They beat the likes of Oregon, Stanford and Washington State in the non-conference.

The Broncos have since gone 11-2-1 ATS in WCC play this season.  That includes their 101-86 home win over the Portland Pilots.  This despite the Pilots shooting 14-of-28 (50%) from 3-point range while also shooting 17 more FT than the Broncos, yet they still lost by 15.  They are due some shooting regression in the rematch, and another blowout victory in the Broncos' favor is in store.

Portland is just 3-15 SU in its last 18 games overall with 12 losses by double-digits.  The three wins came against Pacific (twice) and Pepperdine by 4.  Pacific is the worst team in the conference.  Portland is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and they will be up against one of the best rebounding teams in the country in Santa Clara, which is something they cannot fix.  Santa Clara outrebounded Portland 39-24 in the first meeting.

Santa Clara is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game.  Bet Santa Clara Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota/Illinois OVER 154.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 7-0 in their last seven games overall with 162 or more combined points in all seven games.  The OVER is 11-1 in their 12 games overall as well.  The Fighting Illini rank 57th in adjusted tempo and 4th in adjusted offense this season while also looking to get out in the fast break.

Illinois will control the tempo playing at home tonight in what I expect to be an up and down game.  Minnesota has really lit it up offensively in recent games scoring 81 or more points in three of its last five games, and 75 points or more in six of its last eight games.  If the Golden Gophers get to 75 points tonight this game is going to sail OVER because Illinois is getting 80-plus.  They have scored 80-plus in 10 of their last 11 games.

Illinois is 10-0 OVER off a conference win this season.  The Fighting Illini are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Alabama/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 166

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in eight consecutive games, including 95 or more in six of those eight.  

Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well allowing 92 or more points in four of their last five games.  The OVER is 6-0 in Alabama's last six games overall with 166 or more combined points in all six games.

Now the Crimson Tide face an Ole Miss team that boasts one of the best trios of guards in the entire country.  The Rebels rank 41st in adjusted offense and 18th in 3-point percentage at 37.7%.  Their guards will get whatever they want against Alabama's defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Seton Hall/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on Seton Hall +8.5

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 5-1 SU in their last six games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home three games ago, upset St. John's 68-62 on the road two games ago and crushed Butler by 12 at home last time out.

Now the Pirates want revenge from a 97-94 (3 OT) home loss to Creighton.  I love the value we are getting on them catching 8.5 points in the rematch.  They have a huge rest advantage here playing just their 2nd game in 10 days while having the last three days off, while Creighton has only had two days off since their 80-66 road loss at St. John's on Sunday with travel involved as well.  I think the Bluejays remain overvalued after upsetting UConn at home two games ago.

Creighton is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two straight games with two or fewer assists.  The Pirates are on a mission tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the outright upset.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +8.5

Southern Illinois has just one loss by more than 4 points in its last 12 games.  The Salukis should not be catching 8.5 points to Bradley tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 1-point home loss to Bradley in their first meeting this season.  I love playing revenge-minded road underdogs who lost a close game to their opponent in their first meeting.

Bradley is just 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Braves only won by 3 as 12.5-point home favorites over Illinois State last time out.  They also lost at home to Drake outright, so they have been vulnerable at home.  Southern Illinois is 7-2 ATS in its last nine true road games and has played its best basketball on the highway.

Each of the last 10 meetings between Bradley and Southern Illinois have been decided by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer.  The Salukis trail the Braves by one game for third place in the MVC and are trying to hang on to a top 4 seed leading two teams by one game or less for that spot to add to their motivation.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/Iowa State UNDER 137

Two of the best defensive teams not only in the Big 12 but in the entire country square off tonight when Oklahoma visits Iowa State.  The Cyclones rank 3rd in adjusted defense while the Sooners rank 24th.  Both offenses are known for going on long scoring droughts as well.

Each of the last four meetings between Iowa State and Oklahoma have seen 134 or fewer combined points with 134, 111, 123 and 129 combined points, respectively.  That includes their 134-point effort in their first meeting this season, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  That game even became a foul fest late as Iowa State was trying to come back in a 71-63 defeat.

Oklahoma is 8-2 UNDER vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Iowa State is 23-11 UNDER in its last 34 games vs. a good teams that wins 60-80% of its games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +11.5

The Providence Friars (18-9) are coming up clutch here down the stretch while squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with upset wins over Creighton at home and Xavier on the road.  Their lone loss came by 3 points at Butler.

The Friars can pretty much seal their spot in the Big Dance with an upset road win at Marquette tonight, and they will be max motivated to do just that.  They already beat Marquette 72-57 as 4-point home dogs in their first meeting this season, so they clearly have this team figured out.

Providence also has a big rest advantage having six days off in between games to rest and prepare for the Golden Eagles.  Meanwhile, Marquette just beat Xavier on Sunday and will only have two days to get ready.  The Golden Eagles should not be this heavily favored given the rest disrepancy.

Providence is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six road games when playing with five or six days' rest.  The Friars are 7-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  Providence is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +6.5

This is a terrible spot for Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are in a massive letdown spot off their 83-79 'upset' home win over a Top 10 Duke Blue Devils team that led to a court storming.  It followed up their blowout home win over Pitt.  The Demon Deacons won't be nearly as motivated to beat lowly Notre Dame tonight.

Wake Forest has been vulnerable on the road this season going 3-9 SU & 4-8 ATS in 12 games played away from home.  Notre Dame is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and improving as the season goes on under first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry.  They beat Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at home, upset Louisville by 22 on the road and only lost by 3 as 7.5-point dogs at Syracuse.

The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between Notre Dame and Wake Forest.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 85 points or more.  This is a dangerous, sleepy spot for the Demon Deacons.  Bet Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago +3.5

Loyola-Chicago sits at 20-7 this season and 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 play and tied for first place in the conference with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  There's a shot they could earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.

The Ramblers are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road by 7 at VCU.  The spot really favors them because they are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game 9 days and coming off an 80-59 home win over George Mason that took very little out of them.

St. Bonaventure will be playing in its 3rd different city in 7 days after a 13-point road loss at La Salle on Wednesday followed up an upset road win at UMass on Saturday that is giving the Bonnies more respect than they deserve tonight.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers after going 2-5 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They went through a gauntlet during that stretch with little rest and some very tough opponents.

But the Badgers finally got the rest they needed as they have had the last six days off.  Now they get to face arguably the worst team in the Big Ten in the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The last four games have been very concerning losing by 20 at Purdue, by 4 at home to Northwestern, by 15 at home to Nebraska and by 9 at Penn State.

The Hoosiers are dangerously close to quitting on head coach Mike Woodson, and they are a banged up team that just isn't very deep.  This is a tough spot for the Hoosiers playing their 4th game in 10 days to really test that fatigue.

Wisconsin is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games after losing five or six of its last seven games.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh +7.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and could use a big road win over Clemson tonight.  The Panthers are on the bubble despite going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with some tremendous road wins during this stretch.  They upset Duke, NC State and Virginia on the road.

Now the Panthers have their sights set on revenge from a 79-70 home loss to Clemson as 1.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  I think it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including two blowout wins at Georgia Tech and at home against Florida State, which are two of the worst teams in the conference.  They lost outright to NC State at home the game prior as similar 8-point favorites.

Clemson is just 2-6 ATS in ACC home games this season.  The Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games after making 78% of their free throws or better last game.  Pitt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when revenging a home loss.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* Baylor/TCU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on TCU -2

TCU is playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now.  The Horned Frogs are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point as 5.5-point road dogs at Texas Tech.  They crushed West Virginia by 16 and Cincinnati by 18 at home and upset Kansas State on the road as well.

Now the Horned Frogs get to stay at home following that 18-point win over Cincinnati on Saturday.  They will still be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for Baylor, which is in one of the worst spots of the season.

Baylor is coming off an 82-76 (OT) home loss to Houston.  The Bears had a chance to win it with a FT with 4 seconds left in regulation and missed.  I don't know how they are going to be able to get back up off the mat after that defeat, which followed up two road games at West Virginia and at BYU with a lot of travel involved.  The Bears will now be playing in their 4th different city in 10 days.  And they must face a TCU team that likes to push the tempo and will test their tired legs and minds.

TCU beat Baylor 105-102 (3 OT) on the road in their first meeting this season.  Baylor is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after five straight games forcing 14 or fewer turnovers.  TCU is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet TCU Monday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 66th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs are always looking to get out rand run and get easy buckets in transition.  They face a Baylor team that is elite on the offensive end ranking 5th in adjusted offense but one that among the worst in the Big 12 defensively.

TCU is scoring 83.0 points per game at home this season while Baylor is scoring 82.3 points per game overall.  These teams met on January 27th at Baylor with a 105-102 (3 OT) win for TCU being the result.  That game was tied 76-76 at the end of regulation for 152 combined points, so it still went OVER the 148.5-point total in regulation.  And now we are getting an even better number of 147.5 for the rematch.

Baylor is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games off two consecutive games with five or fewer steals.  The Bears are 8-1 OVER in their last nine road games vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game.  TCU Is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Horned Frogs are 8-2 OVER vs. good offensive teams averaging 77 or more points per game this season.  This one has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +7

Minnesota is the most underrated team in the country.  The Gophers have gone 17-9 SU & 23-3 ATS and are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They could use a big road win over Nebraska, and at the very least I expect them to stay within 7 points.

You're paying a tax to back the Huskers at home now since they are perfect both SU and ATS at home in Big Ten play this season.  But Minnesota has been no pushover on the road.  They have gone 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall including 4-0 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games not once losing by more than 10 points.  

They only lost by as as 16.5-point road dogs at Purdue, upset Penn State and nearly upset Iowa.  The Gophers will give the Huskers a run for their money in a game that should come down to the final possession.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

20* Creighton/St. John's CBS No-Brainer on St. John's +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the St. John's Red Storm.  They have gone just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and have failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games.  Head coach Rick Pitino called out his team and it was a bad look, which is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low'.

But the Red Storm responded well to Pitino last game jumping out to a huge lead against Georgetown and coasting home for the victory.  Now the Red Storm want revenge from a 66-65 loss at Creighton as 6-point dogs on January 13th.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch, and the books haven't adjusted enough for flipping home courts as St. John's should be favored.

While the Red Storm need this game like blood and will be max motivated, this is a massive letdown spot for Creighton.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season where everything went right for them in knocking of No. 1 UConn at home.  They are also 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, so we are 'selling high' on the Bluejays here.

St. John's is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of its last 10 games.  Rick Pitino is a perfect 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in eight or more of his last 10 games as a head coach having never lost in this situation.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -3

Seton Hall is making its move to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Pirates have gotten healthy and have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Villanova.  They beat Xavier by 18 at home two games ago and upset St. John's 68-62 on the road last time out.

The Pirates have had the last five days off to rest and get ready for this game against reeling Butler.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall including a pair of blowout losses in their last two, losing by 22 at home to Creighton and by 10 at Villanova.  The Bulldogs are coming back down to reality as this team just isn't that talented and doesn't play much defense, allowing 71 or more points in seven consecutive games.

Seton Hall beat Butler 78-72 on the road in their first meeting this season to improve to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with all five wins by 6 points or more.  Butler even shot 39.1% from 3 and 15-of-16 (93.7%) from the FT line in that first meeting and still lost by 6.  It's going to be hard to see them improving on the road in the rematch.

Butler is 1-7 ATS off a conference loss this season.  Shaheen Holloway is 7-0 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that attempt 62 or more shots per game after 15-plus game as a head coach.  Holloway is 9-1 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as a head coach.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday.

20* Villanova/UConn FOX No-Brainer on Villanova +12.5

The Villanova Wildcats are playing their way back into NCAA Tournament contention by playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Xavier.  All four wins have come by double-digits by 10 over Butler, by 26 over Seton Hall, by 16 over Georgetown and by 18 over Providence.  The Wildcats haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 7 points.

Now the Wildcats want revenge from a 66-65 home loss to UConn as 3.5-point dogs.  They are catching 12.5 points on the road in the rematch, which is too much.  Everyone is expecting UConn to bounce back from its 85-66 loss at Creighton, but I'm not buying it.  Villanova needs this game more and will be the more motivated team.

Villanova hasn't lost any of its last 18 meetings with UConn by more than 12 points, making for an 18-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 12.5-point spread.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +12.5

Illinois State has quietly gone 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall not once losing by more than 13 points.  The last four games have been very impressive going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with the lone loss at Southern Illinois by 3 as 8-point dogs.

In their very next game the Redbirds pulled off the upset of the season in the MVC beating Indiana State 80-67 as 17.5-point road dogs.  They could have easily let down after that, but instead they have gone on to beat Evansville by 7 as 3.5-point home favorites and Northern Iowa by 81-73 as 1.5-point home dogs to prove it was no fluke.

Now the Redbirds want revenge from that 13-point loss to Bradley at home in their first meeting.  Bradley shot 58.8% in that game which is unsustainable.  Home-court advantage has meant little in this series as the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Illinois State is 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Bradley not once losing by more than 8 points.

The Redbirds are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 80 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet Illinois State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on UNLV -1

UNLV is making its push to make the NCAA Tournament playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Rebels are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming after they blew a double-digit lead late to rival Nevada and lost by 3.  Their wins have been mighty impressive including an 80-77 upset win at New Mexico as a 12-point dog.  They bounced back from that loss to Nevada with a 29-point win at Air Force last time out.

Now the Rebels have their sights set on revenge from a 78-75 loss at Colorado State as 7-point dogs.  The Rams are 1-6 SU in Mountain West road games with thier lone win coming at Fresno State.  They lost by 16 at San Diego State, by 13 at Nevada, by 7 at Boise State and by 5 at Utah State.  UNLV is in the same class as those teams and will handle their business at home.

UNLV is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Georgetown -4.5

DePaul is 0-15 SU & 5-10 ATS in Big East play this season and just ready for this dreadful season to be over.  They have an interim coach and haven't been any more competitive since firing their head man.  They have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and were fortunate to cover as 20-point dogs to Providence in a game they trail by 23 in the final minutes.

Georgetown continues to play hard for first-year head coach Ed Cooley.  Despite going 0-11 SU in their last 11 games overall, the Hoyas have gone 6-5 ATS with five losses by single-digits.  They are about to get rewarded for their efforts with a blowout victory over the hapless Blue Demons tonight.

Georgetown is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  DePaul is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont -5

The Belmont Bruins have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season right now as a result.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with two losses to the two best teams in the conference in Indiana State and Drake, plus a 7-point loss at Missouri State.

Now the Bruins get their shot at revenge on the Bears at home this time around.  They have gone 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Bears have gone the other direction since that win, going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone win against the worst team in the conference in Valpairaiso by 8 as 13-point home favorites.  They are coming off a 26-point home loss to Bradley and lost by 10 at Murray State in their last road game.

Missouri State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by 10 points or more.  I question the Bears' motivation the rest of the way.  The Bruins will want this one more.  Bet Belmont Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Loyola-Chicago -3

Loyola-Chicago sits at 19-7 this season and 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 play and tied for first place in the conference with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  There's a shot they could earn an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament with a big finish.

The Ramblers are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming on the road by 7 at VCU.  The spot really favors them because they have five days in between games to rest and prepare for George Mason.

The spot is a bad one for the Patriots who are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating ranked Dayton 71-67 at home on Wednesday.  Now they only have two days off in between games and are in a massive letdown spot off the Dayton win.

Loyola-Chicago beat George Mason 85-79 on the road in the first meeting despite the Patriots shooting 59.5% as a team and 9-of-17 (52.9%) from 3-point range while making 26 free throws.  They aren't going to shoot that well again on the road in the rematch.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky CBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 175

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in seven consecutive games, including 98 or more in five of those seven.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

Now the Crimson Tide face another dead nuts OVER team in Kentucky.  The Wildcats rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense.  The Wildcats score 87.6 points per game overall and 91.6 points per game at home.  They are also a shaky defensive team like Alabama.

Kentucky is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games off a road loss.  The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  Alabama is 11-1 OVER in Saturday games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/Oklahoma State UNDER 141

I backed the UNDER with success in the first meeting between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State this season.  I'm back on the UNDER again for many of the same reasons.  This rivalry is always low scoring in a matchup of two dead nuts UNDER teams.

The Cowboys and Sooners have combined for 132 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  They have averaged 120.2 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, so we have over 20 points to spare here with this 141-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -1

I love the spot for the Kentucky Wildcats today.  They were humbled with a 75-74 loss at LSU at the buzzer which followed up their 70-59 road win over Auburn handing the Tigers their first home loss of the season.  That was a clear sandwich spot for Kentucky with this game against Alabama on deck.

Now we will get Kentucky's best effort today, and it will be good enough to beat Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are riding high right now winning seven of their last eight.  But they needed OT to beat Florida as 10-point home favorites last time out, and that effort will have taken a lot out of them.

Alabama will be without Mohamed Wague (4.0 PPG) due to suspension and could be without Latrell Whitesell Jr. (9.0 PPG, 44.5% 3-pointers), who missed last game with a concussion.  Conversely, there's a good chance Kentucky gets back Tre Mitchell (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury.  They beat Auburn without him, however.

Nate Oats is 4-15 ATS off a home win where they didn't cover as a favorite as the coach of Alabama.  Oats is 1-9 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 75 points or more as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Tennessee State +13

Samford (24-4) is just one win away from clinching the Southern Conference regular season title with three games remaining.  They have a home game against The Citadel to close out the season and will be a massive favorite.  I expect the Bulldogs to be going through the motions until the conference tournament.

We've seen that already with an 88-84 loss at 10-point favorites at Mercer two games ago followed by a comeback 74-72 home win over Furman as 7-point favorites last time out.  I think this is a letdown spot over that massive win over Furman.

East Tennessee State only lost 75-72 as 6-point home dogs to Samford in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 37.8% from the floor while the Bulldogs shot 52.8%.  They are due some positive shooting regression, and they should not be catching 13 points in the rematch.

East Tennessee State hasn't lost any of its last 19 meetings with Samford by more than 11 points.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Buccaneers pertaining to this 13-point spread.  Bet East Tennessee State Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -3.5

Frank Martin is working wonders in his first season at UMass.  He has the Minutemen sitting at 17-9 this season and 8-6 in conference play.  The Minutemen are 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season and coming off an impressive 74-52 win over VCU as 2-point home favorites.  They should be laying more than 3.5 points at home to St. Bonaventure today.

The Bonnies are 16-10 this season and 7-7 in conference play.  They are coming off a bad 72-59 road loss to LaSalle as 5.5-point favorites to fall to 1-6 SU in their last seven Atlantic 10 road games with their lone win coming at lowly Fordham.  All six losses came by 4 points or more.  Bet UMass Saturday.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet UMass Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Wake Forest -1

I love the spot for Wake Forest Saturday.  They get a chance at quick revenge after giving Duke a run for its money in a 77-69 road loss as 7-point dogs on February 12th.  Now they get to host the Blue Devils in the rematch here two weeks later, and home-court advantage will make all the difference.

Wake Forest is 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per game.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in ACC home games this season outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Duke is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Western Carolina/VMI OVER 151.5

VMI is a dead nuts OVER team and this is a very low total for a game involving the Keydets.  They rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 279th in adjusted defense.  They are allowing 81.7 points per game this season, including 90.2 points per game in conference play.

Western Carolina can name its number just as it did in the first meeting this season.  The Catamounts beat the Keydets 102-77 for 179 combined points on January 27th.  We have 27.5 points to spare here with this 151.5-point total in the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cornell -1.5

I love the spot for Cornell tonight.  The Big Red will be out for revenge from an 80-78 road loss at Yale on February 10th just two weeks ago.  They blew an 8-point halftime lead in that game and a 7-point lead late.  Now they get the Bulldogs at home this time around.

Cornell is 9-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Matt Knowling (11.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) had 12 points and 9 rebounds in that first meeting for Yale.  Knowling has been out with a groin injury since and is questionable to play tonight.

Cornell is 6-0 ATS in its last six Friday night home games.  The Big Red are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games against teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Cornell is 6-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Big Red tonight.  Bet Cornell Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Minnesota -3.5

Minnesota is the single-most underrated team in the entire country.  The Golden Gophers are 16-9 SU & 22-3 ATS this season, including 14-3 SU & 16-1 ATS at home.  They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall as the books just cannot catch up to how good this team really is.

But Minnesota finds itself on the outside looking in in terms of making the NCAA Tournament currently, so they cannot afford a letdown here.  I expect another big effort from the Gophers tonight as they get the win and cover at home against Ohio State.

Ohio State is just 3-9 SU in its last 12 games overall.  But the Buckeyes are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating Purdue outright 73-69 as 8-point home dogs.  That was their first game with their interim head coach after firing Chris Holtman.  But now they are in a massive letdown spot and getting too much respect off that win against Purdue.

Ohio State is 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season.  Minnesota is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big Ten home games this season.  Ohio State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less or PK.  Minnesota is 11-1 ATS as a favorite this season.  Bet Minnesota Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/South Dakota State OVER 160

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Pioneers rank 42nd in adjusted tempo, 95th in adjusted offense and a woeful 354th in adjusted defense.  They score 84.4 points per game and allow 81.2 points per game this season.

South Dakota State has been a dead nuts OVER team under current head coach Ric Henderson.  That's pretty much the case again this season ranking 109th in adjusted tempo, 153rd in adjusted offense and 212th in adjusted defense.  The Jackrabbits are scoring 76.7 points per game overall including 81.4 points per game at home.

Denver beat South Dakota State 99-80 for 179 combined points in their first meeting on January 13th this season.  It should be more of the same in the rematch, and we have 19 points to spare with this 160-point total.  That first total was set at 163, and there's no way the books should have adjusted it down.

Denver is 18-6 OVER in all games this season.  The Pioneers are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  South Dakota State is 10-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  Denver is 7-0 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +15.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are making their push to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  An upset win over Purdue would be just what the doctor ordered.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins at Michigan, at Maryland and at home over Wisconsin.

Rutgers already proved it could play with Purdue only losing 68-60 as 10-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  The Scarlet Knights improved to 5-3 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Purdue.  They haven't lost any of those eight meetings by more than 12 points.  Defense travels, and Rutgers is as good as anyone on that end ranking 2nd in the country in adjusted defense behind only Houston.

Rutgers is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference loss by 10 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against good shooting teams that make 48% or better.  Bet Rutgers Thursday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -7

I love the spot for New Mexico tonight.  The Lobos are coming off an 81-70 road loss at San Diego State on Friday.  They have had the last four days off to rest and prepare for revenge on Colorado State, which they lost 76-68 to on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Colorado State made 14 more free throws than they did which was the difference.

Now the Lobos get the Rams at home where they are 11-2 SU & 9-3-1 ATS inside 'The Pit', which is one of the toughest venues in the country for road teams.  The Lobos are 18-3 SU & 14-7 ATS in their last 21 home meetings with the Rams.

This is a good time to 'sell high' on the Rams coming off a 20-point blowout home victory over Utah State.  They have also gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with four of those at home.  They did win at Fresno State, but they also lost by 16 at San Diego State in their other road game.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in MWC road games this season.

New Mexico is 8-1 ATS in home games with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  The Lobos are 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  The Lobos are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet New Mexico Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -25.5

The books just can't set the lines in these DePaul games high enough.  The Blue Demons have lost 13 consecutive games with nine of those 13 losses coming by 23 points or more.  They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games losing by 33 to Seton Hall, by 25 to Xavier, by 28 to St. John's and by 36 to UConn.  I'll gladly lay the 25.5 points with Marquette at home Wednesday.

DePaul did only lost by 13 at home to Marquette in their first meeting this season.  But they got the new coach bounce in that game as their head coach was fired after the game prior.  The Blue Demons are also coming off a misleading 11-point loss at Providence.  The Friars led that game by 23 points late before the Blue Demons closed on a 12-0 run to make it look closer than it was.

I know we're going to get a focused effort from Marquette tonight, which is key when laying these big numbers.  The Golden Eagles are coming off an embarrassing 81-53 road loss at Connecticut over the weekend.  They had gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games.  They will get right in a big way with a 26-plus point home victory over DePaul tonight.

DePaul is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a game where they committed 8 or fewer turnovers.  Marquette is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss.  Bet Marquette Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte +5.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 17-8 SU & 14-9 ATS this season including 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS in AAC play.  They are in 2nd place in the conference just one game behind South Florida, which is also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Memphis, which is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are 7-6 SU & 2-11 ATS in AAC play this season.  Penny Hardaway is in dangerous territory here looking like he has lost this team.

Memphis followed up a 76-66 loss at North Texas with a 106-79 loss at SMU on Sunday.  The Tigers just quit playing defense against SMU and have now allowed 74 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  They have upset home losses to Rice as 14.5-point favorites and South Florida as 10-point favorites.  They also only beat Wichita State by 2 as 9.5-point favorites.

Memphis is 0-9 ATS after failing to cover four of its last five games this season.  Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  The 49ers are 7-1 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State/Cincinnati UNDER 141

This total has been set too high tonight in this Big 12 battle between two dead nuts UNDER teams in Oklahoma State and Cincinnati.  The Cowboys rank 202nd in adjusted tempo and 133rd in adjusted offense but 96th in adjusted defense.  The Bearcats rank 199th in adjusted tempo, 22nd in adjusted defense and 74th in adjusted offense.

Oklahoma State being without G Bryce Thompson (11.6 PPG) makes them even more of an UNDER team.  They lost him for the season in late January.  This is a very poor offensive team especially on the road where the Cowboys are scoring 62.8 points per game, shooting 38.7% as a team and 28.9% from 3.

Cincinnati has been an elite defensive team at home allowing 63.8 points per game, 40.4% shooting and 30.3% shooting from 3-point range.  I think the fact that both of these teams went over the total in their last games is keeping this total higher than it should be.   Cincinnati had gone 6-1 UNDER in its previous seven games with 134 or fewer combined points in five of those seven games.  Oklahoma State and its opponents have combined for 143 or fewer points in six of its last eight games.

Oklahoma State is 9-2 UNDER in its last 11 road games after losing two of its last three games coming in.  Cincinnati is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games vs. teams that allow 45% shooting or higher after 15-plus games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Florida/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 173.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  They have scored 81 or more points in six consecutive games, including 99 or more in four of those six.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

Now the Crimson Tide face another dead nuts OVER team in Florida.  The Gators rank 36th in adjusted tempo and 10th in adjusted offense.  The Gators have scored at least 79 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are also a shaky defensive team like Alabama.

Alabama averages 91 PPG overall and 96 PPG at home.  Florida averages 85 PPG overall and 82 PPG on the road.  I expect both teams to get to their season averages tonight considering this game will be played at a rapid pace, and if that happens we cash this OVER ticket.

Florida is 6-0 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Alabama is 6-0 OVER in its last six games after scoring 80 points or more in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on TCU/Texas Tech OVER 147.5

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 72nd in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted offense this season.  Texas Tech ranks 13th in adjusted offense and can light it up on that end of the court.

These teams met on January 30th with TCU winning 85-78 for 163 combined points.  Now we have a total of 147.5 for the rematch, which is just too low.  These teams also combined for 165 points in their final meeting last season.  Texas Tech is scoring 77.2 points per game at home this season while TCU is scoring 79.2 points per game on the road.

TCU is 7-0 OVER in road games off an ATS win this season.  Texas Tech is 8-2 OVER with a total of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Red Raiders are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2

I like the spot for Utah State after losing two of its last three games with two of those losses coming on the road to Colorado State and San Diego State.  Now the Aggies want revenge from that loss to the Aztecs on February 3rd.  They shot 26.1% from 3 while the Aztecs shot 45% from 3 and attempted 15 fewer free throws.  They are due for some positive shooting regression and the benefit of the whistle at home in the rematch.

It's a good time to fade San Diego State after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Aztecs are coming off a huge 81-70 home win over New Mexico to get their revenge on the Lobos from a previous road loss.  The Aztecs are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their lone win coming at Air Force.  They are also 1-5 ATS in their six MWC road games this season.

Utah State is 11-1 SU & 7-3-1 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points per game at home.  San Diego State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Aztecs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Bet Utah State Tuesday.

20* UConn/Creighton FS1 No-Brainer on UNDER 145.5

UConn and Creighton both play at a snail's pace and both play some of the best defense in the country.  That makes them both dead nuts UNDER teams.  UConn ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 11th in adjusted defense.  Creighton ranks 221st in adjusted tempo and 24th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between UConn and Creighton.  They combined for 110 points in a 62-48 win by UConn in their first meeting this season.  In fact, they have combined for 129 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in eight consecutive meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 145.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee -11

The Tennessee Vols are an absolute juggernaut this season.  They have their best offense of the Rick Barnes era and remain an elite defensive team.  They rank 5th in adjusted defense and 16th in adjusted offense.  Each of their last seven wins have come by 11 points or more, so they have no problem getting margin on teams.

Now they face the Missouri Tigers, who are 0-12 SU & 2-10 ATS in SEC play this season.  That includes 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in SEC home games with losses by 24 to Mississippi State, by 19 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Florida.  Add another blowout home loss to their record tonight against the best team they have faced at home all season.  Bet Tennessee Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +4.5

Boston College wants revenge from a 63-62 home loss to Florida State as 4-point favorites on February 6th just two weeks ago today.  Now the Eagles come back as 4.5-point underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for switching home courts.

Florida State is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with that lone win coming against these Eagles.  The Seminoles have fallen to 12-13 this season with very little to play for the rest of the way.  The Eagles sit at 15-10 and still feel like they can make a run to the NCAA Tournament.

Florida State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 75 points or more in three consecutive games.  Bet Boston College Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on NC State -5.5

NC State sits at 16-9 and trying to make the NCAA Tournament.  The Wolfpack added a big win to their resume pulling off the 78-77 win at Clemson as 8-point dogs last time out to end a two-game skid.  Now they are in a great spot tonight playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they will be fresh and ready to go.

NC State wants revenge from a 77-65 loss at Syracuse in their first meeting this season on January 27th.  They shot just 35.8% as a team, plus the Orange attempted 21 more free throws than they did.  That will flip in the rematch at NC State this time around.

This is a bad Syracuse team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with little to play for the rest of the way.  The Orange are coming off a 65-60 upset road loss at Georgia Tech.  They lost by 9 at home to Clemson, only beat Louisville by 2 as 8.5-point home favorites and lost by 29 at Wake Forest.  The Orange are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in ACC road games this season.  Bet NC State Tuesday.

15* Butler/Villanova FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Villanova -6

Villanova has played its way onto the bubble by going 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They beat Providence 68-50 as 4.5-point home favorites, lost by 3 as 3-point dogs at Xavier, crushed Seton Hall 80-54 as 7-point home favorites and handled Georgetown 70-54 as 10-point road favorites.

Now the Wildcats want revenge from an 88-81 (OT) loss at Butler on January 27th.  I expect them to get their revenge in blowout fashion tonight against a reeling Butler team that has gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  That includes a 22-point home loss to Creighton last time out.

Villanova is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Butler with all nine wins coming by 10 points or more.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

20* CBB Big Monday No-Brainer on William & Mary +17.5

William & Mary is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Tribe lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Hofstra, pulled off the 4-point upset win as 9-point dogs at Northeastern, only lost by 4 as 8.5-point dogs at Monmouth and only lost by 11 as 12.5-point dogs at Delaware.

William & Mary only lost 84-83 as 13-point home dogs to College of Charleston in their first meeting on February 3rd earlier this month.  Now the Tribe are catching 17.5 points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case considering they have played much better on the road here of late.

Plays on road teams (William & Mary) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 55 points or less are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Charleston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall and consistently overvalued.  That's the case again tonight.  Bet William & Mary Monday.

15* Utah/UCLA Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -2.5

The UCLA Bruins are making an impressive run here late in the season to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Arizona by 6 as 18-point underdogs.

Now the Bruins have their sights set on revenge from their worst loss of the season.  They lost 90-44 at Utah on January 11th, which was the game right before this 8-1 run.  That loss inspired them and forced them to take a look in the mirror.  Now they are dead set on revenge against Utah to prove that they are a much different team from that first meeting.

These teams are headed in opposite directions.  While the Bruins are very much alive for the NCAA Tournament, the Utes have played their way out of contention at this point.  They have gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They lost by 22 at Washington State by, 25 at Washington, were upset at home by Arizona State as 12-point favorites and lost by 4 at lowly USC.  They miss G Rollie Worster (9.9 PPG, 5.5 APG), who hasn't played since that win against UCLA and remains out.

UCLA is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Utah.  The Utes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games against a marginal winning team (51-60%).  Utah is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Bruins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games off three consecutive conference wins.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* Rutgers/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are the most underrated team in the entire country.  They have gone 15-9 SU & 21-3 ATS in all games this season, including 13-3 SU & 15-1 ATS at home.  I expect them to get the win and cover tonight at home against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

I like the spot for Minnesota coming off two consecutive tough road losses at Iowa and at Purdue.  They blew a 20-point lead at Iowa after their best player in Dawson Garcia (17.6 PPG) got hurt with 16 minutes remaining.  Garcia returned for the Purdue game and scored 24 points and the Gophers showed what they were capable of, only losing 84-76 as 16.5-point road dogs against one of the best teams in the entire country in the Boilermakers.

Rutgers is starting to get too much respect after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  But the Scarlet Knights have some major injury concerns coming into this one, while the Gophers are fully healthy.  Noah Fernandes (6.7 PPG) was knocked out of the Northwestern game last time out with an ankle injury.  He scored 17 points against Wisconsin the game prior.  Mawot Mag (9.8 PPG) missed the NW game but had scored 12 or more points in three straight games prior.  Both Mag and Fernandes are questionable to play tonight.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +5.5

South Florida has been disrespected all season and Florida Atlantic has been getting too much respect after making the Final 4 last season.  That remains the case here Sunday.  I fully expect the Bulls to earn their respect with an outright upset of the Owls, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

South Florida is 18-5 SU & 15-6 ATS this season.  The Bulls have gone 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They are 12-2 SU at home this season and 11-1 SU in conference play.  Their lone conference loss came on the road by 4 points at UAB.

Florida Atlantic is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games overall and consistently laying too many points to the opposition due to the notoriety of making the Final 4 last year.  But they are getting everyone's best shot with a target on their back, and they will get South Florida's best shot today as well.

South Florida is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Florida Atlantic.  Bet South Florida Sunday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +18.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Arizona Wildcats off five consecutive victories.  They are coming off a pair of impressive road wins 105-99 (3 OT) at Utah and 99-79 at Colorado.  That win at Colorado was even more impressive because they were coming off that 3 OT game and playing their 2nd game in 3 days in altitude.  I think they take their foot off the gas tonight against Arizona State.

But Arizona hasn't been very impressive in three of its last four home games.  The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games beating Stanford by 11 as 18-point favorites, UCLA by 6 as 18-point favorites and USC by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.  I think Arizona State can stay within 18.5 tonight just as those three teams did.

The Sun Devils are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  Their last two games they upset Utah 85-77 as 12-point road dogs and crushed Oregon State 79-61 as 6.5-point home favorites.  Now they are looking at this game against big brother Arizona as their 'national championship' game and will put their best foot forward.

Arizona State pulled the 89-88 outright upset as 12.5-point road dogs last year.  The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams that are called for 3-plus fewer fouls per game than their opponents.  Each of the last eight meetings in this series were decided by 19 points or fewer, including seven by 13 points or fewer.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Providence -20

The books just can't set the lines in these DePaul games high enough.  The Blue Demons have lost 12 consecutive games with nine of those 12 losses coming by 23 points or more.  I'll gladly lay the 20 points with Providence at home Saturday.

Providence already beat DePaul 100-62 on the road this season.  I think after beating the Blue Demons by 38 on the road, they will have no problem beating them by 21-plus at home in the rematch.  Bet Providence Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Auburn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 164.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in adjusted tempo and 7th in adjusted offense but just 104th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-6 OVER in their 24 games this season.  They are averaging 167.0 combined points per game with their opponents this season.

Auburn won't mind running with Kentucky at all.  The Tigers rank 66th in adjusted tempo and 9th in adjusted offense this season.  They are scoring 86.8 points per game at home this season.  I expect both teams to top 80 points in this one and Auburn to get 90-plus.

Kentucky is 16-4 OVER vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 9-1 OVER vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  Kentucky is 10-1 OVER after a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Wildcats are 11-1 OVER off an ATS win this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +20.5

Tennessee just doesn't take Vanderbilt seriously.  As a result, the Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Tennessee.  They lost by 13 as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They upset the Vols as 10-point home dogs last year.  They only lost by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs in their last two road meetings.

Vanderbilt treats this game like its 'national championship' game every year.  The Commdores upset Texas A&M 74-73 as 8.5-point home dogs last time out to flash their potential, and they already proved they could play with the Vols int their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game by 5 points at halftime, and the 13-point loss was not indicative of how close it really was.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Tennessee is 1-9 ATS with a total set of 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Commodores are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.