Winning Sports Picks

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +8

Penn State has been a quality home team this season at 9-5 SU & 7-4 ATS in lined games.  The Nittany Lions beat Maryland 70-64 as 3.5-point dogs in their last home games.  After back-to-back road games at Illinois and Nebraska, they'll be looking forward to playing at home tonight.

Penn State will also be out for revenge from a 52-77 loss at Purdue in their first meeting this season.  Now the Nittany Lions will be playing with a full week of rest having played last Tuesday on February 14th.  Meanwhile, Purdue just played on Saturday, getting only two days to prepare for the Nittany Lions.  That's a huge edge in rest and preparation for the home squad here.

The Boilermakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Penn State is 7-1 ATS in home games where the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Take Penn State Tuesday.

20* Iowa State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -1.5

Texas Tech is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and needs a strong finish to the regular season to get in.  That makes tonight's game against Iowa State a must-win for them.  I expect them to get the job done here.

Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall while playing some tremendous basketball along the way.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma by 8, lost by 1 at TCU as 3.5-point dogs, lost by 1 to Kansas as 4.5-point dogs, beat Baylor by 6 as 2.5-point dogs, and lost in OT at West Virginia as 10-point dogs.

As you can see, the Red Raiders have proven they can play with the best teams in the Big 12.  Now they'll be up against an Iowa State team that comes in overvalued due to three straight victories and four of their last five overall.  The Cyclones are just 4-5 in true road games this season, while the Red Raiders are 15-2 at home.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last two years.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 trips to Lubbock.  Bet Texas Tech Monday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -7.5

The Illinois State Redbirds are a legitimate bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament at 22-5 on the season.  They really can't afford another loss if they want to make the big dance, unless it comes in the conference championship game to Wichita State.

Illinois State just returned second-leading scorer Mikyle McIntosh (13.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) from a five-game absence due to a knee injury.  Having him healthy moving forward is going to be huge for them.  He and Deontae Hawkins (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) form the best frontcourt duo in the MVC.

Illinois State beat Loyola-Chicago 81-59 as 1-point road favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now the Redbirds get them at home, where they are 13-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game.  The Ramblers have lost four of their last five coming in and I don't give them much of a chance of being competitive here.

The Redbirds are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Illinois State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games off an ATS loss.  Illinois State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Illinois State Sunday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3

The Marquette Golden Eagles have gone in a funk since upsetting Villanova at home on January 24th.  They have lost four of their last five games since, and now they are in jeopardy of falling on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament Bubble.  I think this is a 'rally the troops' type of game at home against Xavier on Saturday.

Xavier has some serious injury concerns right now.  The Musketeers have been without by Myles Davis and Edmond Sumner (15.0 ppg, 5.0 apg), and Trevon Bluiett (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) missed their last game, a 63-75 loss at Providence.  Sumner and Bluiett are their two leading scores, and they could be without both again Saturday.

Marquette is 11-3 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 14.4 points per game.  Xavier is just 3-6 in true road games with its only wins coming at Georgetown (by 5), St. Johns (by 5) and Creighton (by 2).  Keep in mind that Creighton didn't have its best player in Mo Watson Jr for that game.

Xavier is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS after playing a road game this season.   The Musketeers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +10

Like clockwork, the Michigan State Spartans are starting to play their best basketball of the season late in the year under Tom Izzo.  It happens every season, yet oddsmakers fail to adjust for it.

That has been the case again in 2017 as the Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they find themselves catching double-digits on the road against Purdue Saturday, which is simply too much.

Now the Spartans will be out for revenge from a 73-84 home loss to Purdue earlier this season.  That was a rare win for the Boilermakers in this series.  The Spartans are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Boilermakers.  It was the only time that Purdue has won by double-digits over this stretch.

Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years.  Michigan State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 Big Ten games.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Purdue.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2

The Baylor Bears want revenge from a 68-73 loss as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks in their first meeting on February 1st.  I think they get their revenge just over two weeks later in blowout fashion at home this time around.

In that first meeting, the Bears dominated the boards by rebounding 40% of their own misses on the offensive end.  Baylor ranks 9th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, while Kansas ranks 214th in defensive rebounding.  That's a huge fundamental edge that the Bears are going to have once again in this rematch.

I don't think Kansas has much left in the tank right now.  It is going through arguably the toughest stretch that any team has played in the country.  Here is a look at the KenPom rantings of the teams they have played in their last eight games: @WVU (#4), @Kentucky (#7), Baylor (#8), Iowa State (#26), @K-State (#28), @Texas Tech (#37), WVU (#4), @ Baylor (#8).

Kansas' star trio of Devonte Graham, Frank Mason and Josh Jackson have been overworked.  Graham and Mason have played 262 of a possible 290 minutes in their past seven games, while Jackson has played 250.  And the Jayhawks are in a prime letdown spot here after their huge 14-point comeback victory over West Virginia in the final minutes on Monday.  They have a two-game lead in the conference standings and don't need this game as much as Baylor does.

The Bears are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 17 points per game on average.  Kansas is 1-7 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games.  The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* VCU/Richmond ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Richmond +5.5

The Richmond Spiders want revenge from a 74-81 road loss at VCU as 10.5-point underdogs in their first meeting on February 1st.  Now they get their shot just two weeks later and will be ready to go at home this time around as 5.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Richmond hasn't lost any of its last six home meetings with VCU by more than 6 points, which is significant because the Rams have been good for a long time now.

Richmond is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Off a poor defensive performance against George Mason last time out, I look for the Spiders to clamp down defensively here tonight against the Rams.

VCU is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Spiders are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as home underdogs, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as dogs overall.  Bet Richmond Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco +21.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are not only 26-0 SU on the season, but also 18-4 ATS in lined games.  The betting public has made a killing on them this season, and oddsmakers simply cannot allow them to continue to do so.

As a result, they will inflate Gonzaga lines going forward.  And this one is clearly inflated.  Plus, it's the ultimate letdown spot for the Zags as they are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-64 victory at St. Mary's on ESPN Saturday night.  They won't be able to get up for San Francisco tonight.

San Francisco is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Dons have gone 18-9 on the season and are one of the best teams in the WCC.  This is a team that has been a great bet on the road over the past several years as well.

San Francisco is 106-63 ATS in its last 169 conference road games.  The Dons are 8-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 following a double-digit home loss.  Take San Francisco Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut -3

After a disastrous start to the season, the UConn Huskies are starting to play up to their potential of late.  And now they'll want revenge from a 61-70 loss at Memphis back on January 5th in their first meeting of the season.

The Huskies have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Cincinnati.  They beat ECU at home, South Florida by 21 on the road, Tulane by 10 at home, South Florida by 46 at home and upset UCF by 3 as 4.5-point road dogs during this stretch.

Memphis has been blown out quite a bit here of late.  It is 3-3 in its last six games overall with all three losses coming by double-digits.  The only three victories came against ECU (by 7), South Florida (by 10) and Tulsa.  These are two teams going in opposite directions right now.

Memphis is 10-21 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  UConn is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Connecticut Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU -2

The TCU Horned Frogs are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they are starting to play themselves on the right side of it after winning three of their last four games overall.  I look for them to continue their excellent play at home tonight against Oklahoma State.

TCU is 13-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game.  Two of the three losses have come to Kansas and Baylor, the two best teams in the Big 12.  The Horned Frogs will be out for revenge from a 76-89 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this season.

The Cowboys come in overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  TCU won outright as home dogs to Oklahoma State 63-56 and 70-55 in its last two home meetings.

TCU is 6-0 ATS in Wednesday home games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma State is 44-75 ATS in its last 119 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Cowboys are 13-37-3 ATS in their last 53 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -2

The Northwestern Wildcats are on a mission to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever.  A home win over Maryland Wednesday would go a long way in putting them on the right side of the bubble.

The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country at 19-6 on the season.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being undervalued by oddsmakers.  That includes a 66-59 win at Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs last time out.

Maryland is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to an easy schedule up to this point.  That is starting to show of late as the Terrapins have lost two of their last three coming in.  Now they'll be up against a Wildcats team that is 12-2 at home this season and winning by 14.7 points per game on average.

The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Wildcats are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight up win.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -3

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are finally healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They just recently returned their best big man in third-leading scorer Ed Morrow (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who had 13 rebounds in a 69-70 (OT) home loss to Wisconsin in his return from injury in Nebraska's last contest.

That game was five days ago last Thursday, so they have had plenty of time to recover and get ready for Penn State.  Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions played on Saturday and have only had two days to get ready for the Huskers.  And I believe they come in overvalued due to back-to-back upset victories over Maryland and Illinois, which followed an ugly home loss to Rutgers.

Nebraska is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four home meetings with Penn State as Big Ten opponents.  They have won those games by 14, 13, 14 and 12 points, or by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Look for this home domination to continue here Tuesday night.

Nebraska is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent.  The Cornhuskers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Nebraska Tuesday.

20* WVU/Kansas ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5

The Kansas Jayhawks want revenge from their worst loss of the season, a 69-85 road loss at West Virginia on January 24th just three weeks ago.  I fully expect them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home in a hostile atmosphere on ESPN's Big Monday.

The Jayhawks had won 54 straight home games prior to losing to Iowa State in their last home contest, which will have them focused to start a new streak as well.  They are 11-1 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 17.0 points per game.  Rarely will you ever find them at home as this small of favorites.

The Jayhawks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Mountaineers.  These games have rarely been close as all four wins came by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.  Given the importance of this game to the Jayhawks' streak of Big 12 championships, they'll be fully focused tonight to keep it going.

West Virginia is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games off two consecutive conference wins.  Bill Self is 14-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  He'll have the Jayhawks ready to roll tonight.  Bet Kansas Monday.

20* Michigan/Indiana CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from their worst loss of the season, a 60-90 laugher at Michigan on January 26th just two weeks ago.  Now the Hoosiers get the Wolverines at home this time around, and they rarely lose at Assembly Hall.

The Hoosiers also recently returned their best player in James Blackmon.  He was actually hurt in that loss to Michigan and didn't play until a 64-69 home loss to Purdue last time out.  He should be much sharper in his second game back from injury, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward.

This is a bad spot for Michigan, which is coming off a huge win over rival Michigan State, setting it up for a letdown here.  Plus they already rolled the Hoosiers once this season so they probably just think they have to show up to win Sunday.  They'll be in for a surprise against an inspired Hoosiers team that wants it more.

The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Michigan is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  Michigan is 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% this season.  Bet Indiana Sunday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma +9.5

The Oklahoma Sooners couldn't possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost six straight while going 1-5 ATS in the process.  Now they are catching a big number at Iowa State Saturday, and I think it's simply too much.

The Sooners are going to be out for revenge from an 87-92 home loss to Iowa State in double-overtime.  The Sooners led that game by as many as 20 points in the first half, and as many as 6 in the first overtime, but blew it.  Now they want to avenge that defeat in a bad way.

Iowa State simply hasn't held the same kind of home-court advantage as it had in years' past.  The Cyclones haven't beaten anyone by more than 9 at home in Big 12 play this year.  They beat Texas Tech by 7, Texas by 9 and Kansas State by 5.  They also lost to Kansas by 4 and to West Virginia by 13 in their five Big 12 home games.

Oklahoma has only lost one Big 12 road game by more than 8 points this year, which was an 11-point loss at Kansas State as 11.5-point dogs.  The Sooners only lost by 3 at TCU, by 1 at Texas and by 8 at Texas Tech.  They also upset West Virginia by 2 as 16.5-point road dogs.

This has been a very closely-contested series.  Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and nine of the last 10 meetings as well.  In fact, Iowa State hasn't beaten Oklahoma by more than 7 points in any of the last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Sooners pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -6

Coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 57-86 setback at rival Michigan, the Michigan State Spartans are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder today.  Look for them to try and wipe the bad taste out of their mouth against Iowa at home Saturday.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Spartans is the fact that they actually lost twice to Iowa last season.  But this Hawkeyes team is way down from that squad as they are relying on a ton of freshmen this year.  They aren't ready to win in a hostile atmosphere like East Lansing.

In fact, the Hawkeyes are 2-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in all road games this season.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in true road games with their only win coming at lowly Rutgers.  They are getting outscored by 11.1 points per game on the highway this season even when you factor in their 20-point win at Rutgers.

Tom Izzo is 37-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6 to 9 points as the coach of Michigan State.  The Hawkeyes are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a straight up loss.  The Hawkeyes are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas +12

The Texas Longhorns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are 8-3 ATS in Big 12 play this season, yet they are underdogs in almost every game they play, and big road underdogs when on the highway.  That's the case again here against Oklahoma State as 12-point dogs.

Let's look at what they've done on the road this season.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, covered as 9.5-point dogs in a 9-point loss at Iowa State, lost by 10 at Baylor as 14-point dogs, lost by 12 at Kansas as 16-point dogs and only lost at Georgia by 2 as 5-point dogs.  Those results alone show they are more than capable of staying with Oklahoma State today.

I think this is a potential flat spot for the Cowboys.  They had their five-game winning streak come to an end in a tough 69-72 home loss to Baylor on Wednesday.  Now they have only two days to recover in time to get ready for Texas, while the Longhorns last played on Tuesday and will be the fresher squad.

Texas has won three straight meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Longhorns haven't lost any of their last six meetings with the Cowboys by more than 11 points.  They beat the Cowboys 82-79 at home in their first meeting this season as 1-point dogs, and now they're catching 12 points on the road in the rematch, which is way too big of an adjustment.

Texas is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Longhorns are 11-3 ATS as a road dog or PK over the last two years.  The Longhorns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are going to be out for revenge from a 67-71 loss at Penn State on January 28th just two weeks ago.  I look for them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around in the second meeting.

The Fighting Illini have beaten the likes of Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa at home this season all by 5 points or more, which are three better teams than Penn State.  Their three losses have come against Maryland, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which are three better teams than Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-64 home victory over nationally ranked Maryland.  But they have gone just 1-4 in Big Ten road games this season with their only win coming at Rutgers.

The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Fighting Illini are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -3.5

The Rhode Island Rams are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning all four games by 8 points or more.  Now they're ready to take down a team like Dayton here at home Friday night.

The Rams have a chance to move into a second-place tie with the Flyers in the Atlantic 10, just one game behind VCU for the conference lead.  That will have them motivated alone, plus they want revenge from a 64-67 loss at Dayton on January 6th in their first meeting this season.

I like the Rams' chances of getting that revenge at home, where they are 11-1 SU & 7-4 ATS on the season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game.  Four of Dayton's five losses have come on the road this season.  The Flyers will be playing their 3rd game in a week here.

Rhode Island is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Flyers.  Rhode Island is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Rhode Island Friday.

15* UNC/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -2

The Duke Blue Devils haven't played up to their potential this season.  As a result, they are only laying 2 points at home to North Carolina Thursday.  Rarely ever will you find the Blue Devils as this short of home favorites any year, especially a year where they have as much talent as they do this season.

But I look for Duke to be a dangerous team going forward now that Coach K is back on the sidelines.  I think he'll get the most out of his players going forward after he called them out recently.  He doesn't need to give them any extra motivation tonight against the Tar Heels, though.

UNC doesn't deserve getting this much respect from oddsmakers with the way it is playing coming in.  The Tar Heels are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Miami as 6-point favorites, barely beat Pitt by 2 as 18.5-point home favorites, and failed to cover as 9-point home favorites in a 7-point win over Notre Dame.

UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season.  The Tar Heels are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Blue Devils are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Duke Thursday.

15* Stanford/Arizona Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -13.5

The Arizona Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They were embarrassed 58-85 at Oregon on Saturday to fall to 21-3 on the season.  You can bet that they'll be looking to get that bad taste out of their mouths with a blowout win at home over Stanford.

This is the same Stanford team that Arizona already beat 91-52 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their first meeting this year.  The Wildcats have now won 14 straight meetings with the Cardinal.  The last four have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  Expect more of the same tonight.

The Cardinal are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Stanford is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog.  Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Arizona Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -6.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 10-point favorites.  You can bet that Bob Huggins will have them ready to go here tonight after that defeat.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Mountaineers suffered their biggest upset loss this season when they fell 87-89 (OT) at home to Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 6.5 points on the road in the rematch.

That was the last win for the Sooners, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost at home to both Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch, while also getting blown out by 32 at home by Florida.  This team just doesn't have much to play for right now at all.

Plays on a favorite (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mountaineers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite.  The Sooners are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4

I expect a big effort from the Clemson Tigers at home here tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Florida State on Sunday.  They lost that game 61-109 and will certainly be looking to make amends.  The Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Meanwhile, Syracuse comes in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over Virginia by a final of 66-62 as 4.5-point underdogs in which they had a big comeback in the second half.  They are primed for a letdown off that victory.

Clemson is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Syracuse.  The Orange are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in all road games this season.  The Tigers are 8-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game on average.

Syracuse is 3-11 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  Clemson is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 after failing to cover six or seven of its last eight against the spread.  The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Clemson Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +6.5

The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and now they are being asked to lay 6.5 points on the road to Georgia Tuesday night.  We'll gladly fade them now.

This is an awful spot for the Gators.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 88-66 home victory over Kentucky on Saturday.  They are now in a letdown spot.  And having already beaten Georgia once this season, they won't be up for this game.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, come in highly motivated after playing well but losing their last two games on the road to Kentucky in OT as 15.5-point dogs and to South Carolina 75-77 as 8-point dogs.  They also want revenge from their 76-80 road loss to Florida on January 14th in their first meeting this season.

Georgia is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Georgia is 7-0 ATS versus teams who attempt 25 or more free throws per game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

15* Louisville/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia -6

The Virginia Cavaliers simply have the Louisville Cardinals' number.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  They won 61-53 on the road earlier this season, and 68-46 at home and 63-47 on the road in their two meetings last year.  These games haven't even been close.

I expect that to be the case again here tonight as the Cavaliers roll the Cardinals.  The Cardinals come in overvalued off three straight blowout wins over weak ACC competition in Boston College, NC State and Pitt.  But their run comes to an end here tonight.

The Cardinals were already without second-leading scorer Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg) due to injury.  But now they are going to also be without their third-leading scorer in Deng Adel (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and fifth-leading scorer Mangkok Mathiang (7.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), who have both been suspended for this contest.

Virginia will be hungry following an upset loss at Syracuse on Saturday.  The Cavaliers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Virginia Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5

I really love this spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They will be out for revenge from a 90-93 double-overtime loss to Nebraska on the road in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home tonight.

This is also a good spot for the Hawkeyes because they last played on Tuesday, getting four days to prepare for Nebraska.  The Huskers last played Michigan State in an 11-point home loss on Thursday, only getting two days off to prepare for the Hawkeyes.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have played two of their best games of the season coming in.  They beat Ohio State 85-72 as 1-point home favorites, and throttled Rutgers 83-63 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They won both those games without leading scorer Peter Jok, which helped them gel as a team.  Now Jok returns Sunday and the Hawkeyes will be a very dangerous team moving forward.

Iowa is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 home games off a road win.  The Hawkeyes are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Huskers, winning by 11, 11, 10 and 14 points, respectively.  Roll with Iowa Sunday.

25* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -1.5

The UCF Knights are one of the most underrated teams in the American Athletic.  They opened the season 14-4, but then ran into a buzz saw of a schedule over the past couple weeks.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a result, and now they are way undervalued heading into this home matchup with Memphis Saturday.

Three of the losses came on the road against three of the better teams in the AAC in Memphis, Tulsa and Houston.  The other was a 60-65 home loss to SMU, which is the second-best team in the league.  And that was a rare home loss for the Knights.

Indeed, the Knights are 10-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.  Their defense has been superb at home, giving up just 56.6 points per game on 32.7% shooting.  Obviously the Knights are going to be out for revenge from their 65-70 road loss to the Tigers on January 22nd just two weeks ago, so I love their mindset coming in.

Memphis comes in overvalued due to winning five of its last six games overall.  But the Tigers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as they have consistently underachieved in terms of the spread.  And their last six games have come against South Florida (twice), ECU, Temple, UCF and Houston.  All five wins came by 10 points or less, too.

This is a great situation for the Knights in terms of rest as well.  They last played on Wednesday in a road loss to Houston.  The Tigers last played on Thursday in a road win at South Florida.  So the Tigers will only have had one day off to get ready for UCF, while the Knights will have had two days' rest.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for the home team here.

UCF is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.3 points per game.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Memphis is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -1.5

The Air Force Falcons have been one of the most underrated teams in the Mountain West.  They have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 7 at Nevada as 12-point dogs, by 2 at UNLV as 4-point dogs, and by 9 at Fresno State as 9.5-point dogs.

Their one win came when they beat San Diego State by 3 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Falcons have been a great bet at home all season, going 10-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their home lined games.  They are scoring 80.6 points per game on 48.3% shooting at home this year.

Wyoming is just 2-6 in true road games this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Falcons won 70-62 as 4.5-point home dogs last year and 73-50 as 1-point home favorites in 2015.  Home-court advantage is clearly huge for these two teams, and the Falcons basically just have to win the game to cover the spread here Saturday.

Air Force is 8-0 ATS in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Air Force is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.   The Cowboys are 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

15* Xavier/Creighton FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Creighton -3.5

There's no question that the loss of Mo Watson Jr. hurt Creighton.  They did not play well in their first two games without him, but they have adjusted in a big way in their past two games, and oddsmakers are once again putting too much stock in his loss.

Creighton beat DePaul 83-66 as 15.5-point favorites eight days ago before upsetting Butler 76-67 on the road as 7-point underdogs on Tuesday.  Now the Bluejays have had three full days to get ready for Xavier, a team they already beat 72-67 as 3-point road dogs on January 16th in the game that Watson was injured in.  Creighton also beat Xavier 70-56 as 1-point home underdogs last season.

Xavier has just as big of injury issues of its own.  The Mountaineers are without their best player in Edmond Sumner, and they were already without Myles Davis.  Sumner averages 15.0 points, 5.0 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game.  Not to mention leading scorer Trevon Bluiett (18.7 ppg) is battling a foot injury and is questionable.

In their first game without Sumner on Wednesday, the Musketeers were fortunate to escape with a 72-70 home victory over Seton Hall as 5-point favorites.  Xavier is just 2-5 in true road games this season, while Creighton is 11-2 at home and outscoring opponents by 13.5 points per game.

Xavier is 1-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% this season.  Creighton is 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bluejays are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games overall.  The Bluejays are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road meetings.  Take Creighton Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have some awful losses this season but also some incredible wins.  But most of those great wins came at home against CLemson, UNC, FSU and Notre Dame.  It has been a completely different story for them on the road this season.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are just 2-6 in true road games this season.  They have been getting outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game on the road this year.  They lost by 12 at Clemson on Wednesday, and I think their luck has run out here again against Wake Forest on the highway.

Wake Forest is 7-3 at home this season.  The three losses all came against great teams where they easily could have won.  They gave up a big late lead in a 68-73 loss to Clemson, only lost to UNC 87-93 as 8.5-point dogs, and lost on a last-second 3-pointer to Duke 83-85 as 6-point dogs.

This is clearly the best team that the Demon Deacons have had in a while, and they are winning by 12.1 points per game on average at home this year.  The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Central Michigan -2.5

Oddsmakers have really missed their mark tonight in this MAC showdown between Western Michigan and Central Michigan.  The Chippewas should be much bigger favorites, but we'll gladly take advantage of this huge line mistake.

This one is pretty simply.  Central Michigan is 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Western Michigan is 0-12 in all road games this year, getting outscored by 13.7 points per game on average.

Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Chippewas are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Central Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Central Michigan Friday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

The Stanford Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing back-to-back tough road games at Oregon and California.  They had won their previous three games coming in, including a 30-point home win over Washington State, a 9-point home win over Washington and a 16-point road win against Oregon State.

Now the Cardinal get to face one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in the Colorado Buffaloes, who are 2-7 in conference play.  They actually started 0-7 before beating lowly Oregon State by 7 at home and then upsetting Oregon 74-65 at home.

That win over Oregon sets the Buffaloes up for a massive letdown spot here.  They won't be able to get up for Stanford after beating the Ducks.  The Buffaloes are just 2-6 in true road games this season.  The Cardinal are 7-3 at home this year.

The Buffaloes are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Colorado is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Stanford Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri +22

The Florida Gators are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now after back-to-back blowout victories.  The Gators thumped LSU 106-71 and Oklahoma 84-52 on the road.  That followed up an ugly 66-68 home loss to Vanderbilt.

In fact, the Gators haven't fared well at home at all this season in conference play.  They are 1-3 ATS in conference home games with their only cover coming by a half-point in a 13-point win over Tennessee as 12.5-point favorites.  They only beat Ole Miss by 7 as 13-point favorites, Georgia by 4 as 12-point favorites, and lost to Vanderbilt by 2 as 11.5-point favorites.

The Gators are also in a serious look-ahead spot here and won't be able to give Missouri the kind of attention it's going to take to cover this massive 22-point spread.  They have Kentucky at home on deck Saturday, and they won't be able to help but look ahead to that huge contest against the favorite to win the SEC.

Missouri is 9-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two seasons.  Florida is 6-15 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last three years.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 13 or more.  Take Missouri Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are showing great value as 3.5-point home favorites over the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight.  The Razorbacks are undervalued off their blowout loss at Oklahoma State over the weekend, while Alabama is getting too much respect off its 9-point home win over Mississippi State.

The Razorbacks have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 at home this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  Arkansas has won 13 of its last 17 home meetings with Alabama.

Arkansas is 50-29 ATS in its last 79 home games off a road loss.  The Razorbacks are 15-4 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games as a dog of 6 points or less.  The Crimson Tide are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.  Alabama is 18-37-2 ATS in its last 57 games following a straight up win.  Take Arkansas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State PK

The NC State Wolfpack beat Duke 84-82 on the road.  Then they had a letdown in a 60-85 road loss to Louisville, and that blowout defeat has them undervalued coming into this home game against Syracuse tonight.

The Wolfpack are 11-2 at home this season.  The Orange haven't won a road game all season, going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in all games played away from home.  They are getting outscored by 13.3 points per game in these road contests this season.

I think the Orange come in overvalued off back-to-back wins and covers at home over Wake Forest and Florida State.  But they haven't even been competitive in their four ACC road games, losing by 15 at Boston College, by 10 at VA Tech, by 17 at North Carolina and by 18 at Notre Dame.

The Orange are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Syracuse is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  NC State is 24-10-2 ATS in its last 36 games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ball State -2.5

The Ball State Cardinals are one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall, yet they aren't getting the kind of respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Three of those five wins came by double-digits with their only loss coming at Bowling Green by 5 points.

Toledo is just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  There have been some ugly performances along the way.  They lost by 16 at Western Michigan as 4.5-point favorites, by 8 at Central Michigan as 2.5-point favorites and by 24 at Kent State as a pick 'em in three of their four road games during this stretch.

Ball State is 8-3 at home this season, while Toledo is just 2-6 in true road games this year.  Ball State is 13-6 SU & 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Toledo.  The Cardinals beat the Rockets 87-69 as 2-point home underdogs last season.

Toledo is 0-6 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Toledo is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road meetings with the Cardinals.  Take Ball State Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler -6.5

The Butler Bulldogs will be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Georgetown as 8.5-point favorites on Saturday.  And if that's not enough, the Bulldogs will also be out for revenge from a 64-75 loss at Creighton earlier this season in their first meeting.

But this isn't the same Creighton team they saw in that meeting.  The Bluejays are now without their best player in Mo Watson Jr. who accounted for nearly 38% of their offense between his points and assists at the time of his injury.  It's safe to say the Bluejays haven't been the same without him.

Indeed, the Bluejays are 1-2 in their three games since Watson went down.  They were upset at home by Marquette 94-102 as 6-point favorites.  They lost 51-71 at Georgetown as 1.5-point favorites.  Then they did beat Depaul 83-66 as 16-point home favorites on Saturday, but the Blue Demons are the worst team in the Big East.

That home loss to Georgetown was a rare one for the Bulldogs, who are 11-1 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season.  Butler beat Creighton 88-75 at home last season as 5.5-point favorites.  This is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Butler is 7-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these games by 16.7 points per game on average.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS versus good teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  Butler is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* Duke/Notre Dame ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +1.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against the Duke Blue Devils.  They have lost three of their last four games coming in to drop to 17-5 on the season.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one.

After all, the Fighting Irish seem to get up for the Blue Devils every time they get the opportunity to face them.  And surprisingly, they have had a ton of success in this series here of late.  The Fighting Irish have won three straight and five of the last six meetings.

The Blue Devils are not playing well at all here of late as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, consistently being overvalued.  They were fortunate to escape with an 85-83 win at Wake Forest over the weekend after getting upset 82-84 at home by NC State as 16.5-point favorites.

Notre Dame is 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Duke is 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Notre Dame Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +24.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are primed for a letdown here against the South Florida Bulls, which will make it extremely difficult for them to cover this massive 24.5-point spread today.  We'll gladly fade them and take all the points we can get here.

Cincinnati put a lot into its 86-78 home win over Xavier on Thursday.  The Bearcats had lost their three previous meetings with the Musketeers, who are their biggest rivals.  They really wanted that game against their crosstown rivals, and they had a huge second half to get it.  Now they'll fall flat here just a few days later.

No question South Florida is not very good at 6-13 this season, but it hasn't been losing by these kinds of margins this season.  In fact, the Bulls haven't lost a game by more than 22 points this year.  That fact alone shows that there is value in this 24.5-point spread.

USF is 7-0 ATS in road games off two consecutive losses by 10 or more to conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two years.  USF is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Bulls.  Take South Florida Sunday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -2

Expect a big effort Sunday from the Michigan State Spartans, who are highly motivated to bounce back from three straight losses coming in.  They have had four days off since last playing on Tuesday and will be ready to go tonight.

The Michigan Wolverines are getting too much respect here from oddsmakers.  They are coming off a 30-point home win over a depleted Indiana team on Thursday, giving them just two days off to get ready for the Spartans.  They're at a big disadvantage here in rest, preparation and motivation when compared to Michigan State.

The Spartans have won 14 of their last 16 home meetings with the Wolverines.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after having lost four of its last five games coming in.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.

The Wolverines are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  Michigan State is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following a loss.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been a hard-luck team here of late.  They have lost four in a row with the last three coming by 2, 2 and 6 points.  Three of those four came on the road, too.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory here Saturday to get back on track, especially with a ranked team in Maryland coming to town.

The Gophers have been a great home team, going 12-2 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Their two home losses both came in overtime to Michigan State (74-75) and Wisconsin (76-78).  That's how close they are to being 14-0 at home this year.

Maryland is one of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.  Oddsmakers tend to agree here in setting the Gophers as 4-point favorites despite the fact that the Terrapins are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  I think their luck runs out here Saturday.

Minnesota beat Maryland 68-63 as 10-point home underdogs last season.  The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Gophers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +7.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are in the ultimate letdown spot here.  After upsetting Creighton 102-94 on the road, the Golden Eagles came back home and upset No. 1 Villanova 74-72 on Tuesday.  They erased a 15-point halftime deficit to beat the Wildcats.

The crowd stormed the floor after the win, and the players were seen standing on the scoring table and dancing.  It was a monumental win for the program, and now it's simply human nature that they won't be able to come back with a very good effort here Saturday against Providence.

Adding to the value is the fact that Providence was upset 86-91 at home by St. John's on Wednesday as 7-point favorites.  But that was a rare bad effort of late for the Friars.  They were 3-0 ATS in their previous three games with only a 10-point loss at 16-point dogs at Villanova, an 18-point win as 6.5-point dogs at Georgetown and a 4-point home win over Seton Hall as 1.5-point dogs.

Providence is also going to be out for revenge in this game after losing both meetings last year in heartbreaking fashion.  Marquette won 96-91 in overtime at home and 65-64 on the road in the two meetings.  I think there's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Friars pull off the upset given the situation.

The Friars are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Golden Eagles are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Providence Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas State +1

The Tennessee Vols are in a prime letdown spot here Saturday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 82-80 victory as 10.5-point home dogs over the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday.  There's no question they won't be able to come back with a very good effort after that huge victory.

Tennessee hasn't exactly protected its home court very well at all coming into that game.  The Vols actually lost three straight home games to Gonzaga, Arkansas and South Carolina with two of those coming by double-digits before winning their last two home games against Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Kansas State is 15-5 this season and coming off a painful 65-70 loss at Iowa State on Tuesday in which it came way back and took the lead, only to fail to close it out in the final few minutes.  The Wildcats' five losses this season have come at Maryland (by 1), at Kansas (by 2),  at Texas Tech (by 1), vs Baylor (by 9) and at Iowa State (by 5).  They are clearly battle-tested and could be even better than 15-5 had they been able to pull out a few of those close games.

The Volunteers are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +15.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 85-69 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Tuesday.  Now they'll have a hard time getting up to play the Texas A&M Aggies here as they step out of conference.

Texas A&M has played a ton of close games here of late.  Each of their last six games were decided by 11 points or fewer outside of a 92-62 beat down of LSU at home.  Their last three games were all decided by 4 points or fewer.  I think this one will come right down to the wire as well.

It's not like West Virginia is deserving of being this big of a favorite with the way it was playing coming into the Kansas game.  The Mountaineers were upset at Kansas State and at home against Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites. They only beat Texas by 2 as 11-point favorites, and were upset at Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  West Virginia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 vs. SEC opponents.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games.  The Aggies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -3.5

The Michigan Wolverines are 11-2 at home this season.  I really like them laying this short price to the Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night as I expect a big effort out of them.  They are still looking for a signature win in conference play, and this would be it.

Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in all games away from home this year.  They are 1-2 straight up in true road games with their only victory coming 78-75 at Penn State as 3-point favorites.  This is a team that lost earlier this season on the road to Fort Wayne.

Indiana is 3-11 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Hoosiers are 2-13 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years.  The Wolverines are 50-28 ATS in their last 78 January home games.  The Hoosiers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a ATS win.  The Wolverines are 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 Thursday games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rice -3

The Rice Owls are 8-3 at home this season.  Two of their home losses came against two of the best teams in Conference USA in UAB and Middle Tennessee.  I think they'll handle Old Dominion at home here tonight.

Old Dominion is not playing well coming in, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. yet it continues getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.  The Monarchs barely beat lowly Southern Miss by 4 at home as 13-point favorites, lost at home to LA Tech by 12 as 1-point favorites, and lost at Charlotte 72-74 as 2.5-point favorites.

Old Dominion has some injury and suspension issues right now.  Brandan Stith (11.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg), who leads the team in rebounding and blocks, missed the last game with an ankle injury.  He is expected to return for this game, though he won't be near 100%.  Also, Jordan Baker (7.6 ppg), who leads the team with 24 steals, has been suspended for this game.

Plays against any team (OLD DOMINION) - a horrible offensive team (63 PPG or less) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is also a revenge game for the Owls, who lost 56-62 at Old Dominion in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston College +16

The Boston College Eagles have been one of the most underrated teams in the ACC.  All they do is cover, yet they get no respect from oddsmakers.  The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall while playing some very good teams tough along the way.

That includes upset home wins over Providence (79-67) as 10-point dogs, Syracuse (96-81) as 10.5-point dogs and NC State (74-66) as 5.5-point dogs.  The Eagles have also covered in road losses to Wake Forest (66-79) as 15-point dogs and Duke (82-93) as 26-point dogs.  Then last time out they only lost at home to UNC (82-90) as 19-point dogs.

Miami has been one of the most overrated teams in the ACC.  The Hurricanes are just 4-12 ATS in their 16 lined games this season.  They are coming off a 58-70 road loss at Duke as 10-point dogs and will certainly have a hard time getting up to play Boston College after playing one of the best teams in the country.

The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston College is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hurricanes are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Bet Boston College Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on La Salle -8.5

Look for an inspired effort tonight from the La Salle Explorers off their worst loss of the season, a 52-90 road loss to VCU.  That poor showing came out of nowhere because they had been playing their best basketball of the season coming into that contest.

Indeed, La Salle was 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five games.  The Explorers had beaten Saint Louis by 21, Duquesne by 7, George Washington by 10 and Davidson by 8 at home.  They had also gone on the road and upset Rhode Island by 12 as 12-point dogs.

Pennsylvania is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  All four losses came by 7 points or more.  They lost by 9 at Princeton as 8.5-point dogs, by 8 at home to Yale as 1-point dogs, by 12 at home to Brown as 9.5-point favorites, and by 7 to St. Joe's on a neutral court as 2.5-point dogs.

La Salle has won eight of its last nine meetings with Pennsylvania with each of the last four victories coming by double-digits.  The Explorers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Quakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  The Explorers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their last game by 20-plus points at the half.  Take La Salle Wednesday.

15* Kansas/WVU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -3

The West Virginia Mountaineers are coming off back-to-back losses and will be highly motivated to get a win at home tonight against the Kansas Jayhawks on National TV.  Look for a big effort from them, especially after those consecutive losses.

The Jayhawks have played a very weak schedule thus far in Big 12 play, avoiding both Baylor and WVU to this point.  The only three road games in conference play the Jayhawks have faced were a 6-point win at TCU, an 11-point win at Oklahoma and a 4-point win at Iowa State.  They will suffer their first loss of conference season here.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 straight up in the last seven meetings.  West Virginia has won each of its last three home meetings with the Jayhawks, including a 74-63 victory as 1-point dogs last year.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in Tuesday home games over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 2-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State +2.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be highly motivated for a win tonight after losing each of their last two games in narrow fashion on the road to Ohio State by 5 and Indiana by 7.  Look for a big effort from Sparty tonight at home to try and get back in the win dolumn.

The Spartans have certainly been taking care of business at home in conference play.  They beat Northwestern by 9 as 2.5-point favorites, Rutgers by 28 as 13-point favorites and Minnesota by 18 as 3.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first three Big Ten home games by a combined 36 points.

Purdue hasn't exactly played great in its first two Big Ten road games.  It only won 76-75 at Ohio State as 3-point favorites, then was upset 78-83 at lowly Iowa as 6-point favorites.  Michigan State has won 12 of its last 15 home meetings with Purdue.

The Spartans have owned this series, going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The only loss came last season 81-82 in overtime at Purdue.  The Spartans are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. points.  Roll with Michigan State Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns are playing very well of late and continue flying under the radar.  It hasn't shown up in the win-loss column, but the fact that they are being competitive against the best teams in the Big 12 shows what they are capable of.

The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, beat Oklahoma State 82-79 as 1-point home dogs, only lost by 9 as 9.5-point dogs at Iowa State, only lost by 3 at home to TCU and by 1 at home to West Virginia as 11.5-point dogs, and covered in a 10-point loss at Baylor as 14-point dogs and in a 12-point loss at Kansas as 16-point dogs.

Oklahoma is also playing better right now, but I don't like this spot for the Sooners.  They played a double-overtime game on Saturday against Iowa State and lost 87-92 at home.  Now they must play just two days later and will certainly still be feeling the effects of that grueling defeat.

The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Sooners are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Texas is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Sooners are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 road meetings.  Roll with Texas Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1-point home favorites over the Northwestern Wildcats Sunday.  I'll gladly back them at this price in a game they essentially just have to win to cover.

The Buckeyes are 10-2 at home this season.  One of the losses was a 75-76 loss to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the Big Ten.  The Buckeyes just beat Michigan State 72-67 at home before going on the road and winning at Nebraska.

Ohio State has had Northwestern's number to say the least.  The Buckeyes are 29-2 in their last 31 meetings with the Wildcats, including a perfect 15-0 in their last 15 home meetings.  Again, they just have to win the game today to cover.  Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* Miami/Duke ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -9

I'm anticipating the best effort of the season from Duke here Saturday.  The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back road losses against two of the top teams in the ACC in Florida State and Louisville.  They have now had a full week to fix their issues and get ready for Miami having last played last Saturday.

The Miami Hurricanes haven't shown me anything that would make be believe that they can even be competitive in this game Saturday.  They are 1-3 in their last four games overall, losing by 15 at Syracuse, by 5 at home to Notre Dame and by 17 at Wake Forest.  None of those three teams are as good as Duke.

And Miami is at a huge disadvantage getting just two days to prepare for Duke.  The Hurricanes played Wake Forest on Wednesday.  Adding to the Blue Devils' motivation is the fact that they've actually lost each of their last two meetings with the Hurricanes, who aren't nearly as strong this year as they were the past two seasons.

Duke is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 9-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 28.7 points per game.  Miami is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Hurricanes are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -1

Northern Illinois has been consistently undervalued at home over the past few seasons.  Time and time again they are short home favorites, and the Huskies keep delivering for backers.  They are 8-2 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by 11.1 points per game on average.

The Huskies come in playing their best basketball of the season, going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming 67-69 at Miami Ohio.  Despite this fact, the Huskies continue to lack respect from oddsmakers here today.

Ohio just lost its best player in Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) to a season-ending foot injury.  The results without him have not been good.  They lost at home to Eastern Michigan 49-53 as 7-point favorites, then proceeded to fall at Akron 68-83 as 6-point dogs.  They are clearly lost without Campbell.

The Huskies are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The Bobcats are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Northern Illinois is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons, coming back to win by nearly 20 points per game on average in this spot.  Roll with Northern Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on James Madison +8

James Madison is playing well having gone 5-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last eight games overall.  They suffered a 10-point road loss at Northeastern as 8-point dogs, a 51-53 loss to College of Charleston as 4.5-point home dogs, and a 72-73 loss at William & Mary as 7-point dogs in their three defeats, so they've been competitive in every game.

As you can see, this will be the second meeting between James Madison and College of Charleston this season.  I love taking the team in revenge mode, especially when they are catching a bunch of points on the road.  And after losing by just 2 to College of Charleston in the first meeting, I think there's a ton of value with James Madison at +8 in the rematch.

I think this is an awful spot for College of Charleston, which is coming off a 59-65 home loss to the best team in the conference in UNC-Wilmington as 3.5-point dogs.  Off that deflating loss, I look for them to suffer a hangover here, especially considering they won't be able to get up for a James Madison team that they've already beaten once this year.

The recent head-to-head history also favors James Madison, which is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Each of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and Charleston hasn't beaten James Madison by more than 3 points in any of those six meetings.

James Madison is 22-11 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  Charleston is 16-36-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  The Cougars are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 Saturday games.  The Dukes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take James Madison Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -3

The Florida State Seminoles are 17-2 on the season, including a perfect 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 20.0 points per game on the season.  They have home wins over Florida (by 5), Wake Forest (by 16), VA Tech (by 15), Duke (by 16) and Notre Dame (by 3) recently.

Louisville is having a superb season as well, going 16-3 straight up and 12-5 ATS on the year.  But the Cardinals were dealt a big blow when they lost starting PG Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg, 4.0 apg) for 2-3 weeks with a hip injury.

The Cardinals were able to overcome his injury for a game and thump Clemson 92-60 at home, but now they will be playing just their 4th true road game of the season.  The other three weren't impressive at all as they only won by 9 at Grand Canyon, lost by 7 at Notre Dame and beat lowly Georgia Tech by 15.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Louisville is 2-9 ATS in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa -2.5

It has been like night and day for the Iowa Hawkeyes home and away.  They have been terrible on the road, but dominant at home this season.  The Hawkeyes have won seven straight home games coming into this contest against Maryland.

The Hawkeyes are 3-0 at home in Big Ten play, beating Michigan 86-83 as 2.5-point dogs, Rutgers 68-62 and Purdue 83-78 as 6-point dogs.  They also topped Iowa State 78-64 as 6-point dogs as part of this seven-game home winning streak.

I think Maryland comes in overvalued due to its 16-2 record this season where it has done most of its damage at home.  And the Terrapins have won three straight by 7 points or fewer coming in, and I think their luck runs out tonight in Iowa City in these close games.

Iowa is 11-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  They beat Maryland 71-55 in their last home meeting.  Bet Iowa Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

Northern Iowa wants revenge from a 66-77 road loss to Loyola back on January 1st.  In fact, the Panthers have lost three straight in this series, so they'll be playing with triple revenge here.  Look for them to get that revenge at home tonight.

The Panthers are undervalued right now after going 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS during a stretch that dated back to a loss to Iowa.  They finally broke the streak with a 79-60 win at Drake last time out, and now they have their best player back healthy in Jeremy Morgan (16.9 ppg), who returned for the Drake game and scored 21 points.

Conversely, Loyola comes in overvalued after going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  But the Ramblers have not fared well at UNI, going 1-4 straight up in their last five road meetings in this series.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.  Northern Iowa is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite.  The Panthers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Panthers are 22-7 ATS off a conference win over the last three years.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +17

The Oklahoma Sooners are as undervalued as they'll be all season right now.  That's because they lost seven straight games before finally ending that streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  But the Sooners are still getting no respect from oddsmakers here despite going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The biggest reason for the Sooners' struggles was that Jordan Woodard was injured and missed several games.  But he's back healthy now as he returned in a 70-81 loss to Kansas as 12-point dogs prior to the Texas Tech win.  This team will be a tough out moving forward with Woodard back.

West Virginia is as overvalued as it is going to be at any point this season due to its 15-2 start to the season.  That was evident last time out as the Mountaineers barely survived in a 74-72 win at lowly Texas as 11.5-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points to the Sooners tonight.  They're going to have to play a perfect game to cover this massive number.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -5.5

The Florida State Seminoles are a perfect 12-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.5 points per game.  They have been crushing opponents at home in ACC play, beating Wake Forest by 16, Virginia Tech by 15 and Duke by 16.

I believe Notre Dame comes into this game overvalued due to having won seven straight while covering each of the last four against the spread.  But the Fighting Irish's luck will run out here against an FSU team that is a legitimate contender to win the ACC this year.

The Seminoles beat the Fighting Irish 77-56 at home last season as 3-point underdogs.  They have actually won three of their last four meetings in this series.  This will be the toughest road game of the season for the Fighting Irish, who have been fortunate to escape with three close road wins by 5 points or less in ACC play.

Florida State is 9-0 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 11-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  Roll with Florida State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -10

The Wisconsin Badgers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have been dominant at home this year, going 10-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in lined games while winning by an average of 27.6 points per game.  They beat Rutgers by 20 and Ohio State by 23 in their first two conference home games.

The Michigan Wolverines have been an overvalued commodity this season, especially of late.  They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only two conferences wins came at home, and both were close as they only beat Penn State 72-69 as 11.5-point favorites, and Nebraska 91-85 as 8.5-point favorites.

The Wolverines lost to Maryland by 7 at home, and both Iowa and Illinois (by 16) on the road.  They are now 0-4 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Wolverines have been outrebounded by 40 boards in Big Ten play.  Wisconsin outrebounds its opponents by an average of 11 boards per game.  That is going to be where this game is won and covered as the Badgers kill Michigan on the glass in this one.

Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS off a home conference win over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 12-3 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three years.  Wisconsin is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams who make 77% or more of their free throw attempts.  Michigan is 1-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Badgers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite.  Roll with Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron -5

Akron is probably the best team in the MAC this season.  The Zips are off to a 14-3 start this year, including a perfect 4-0 in conference play.  They have won seven straight games coming in to this showdown with rival Ohio.

The Bobcats are at a big disadvantage here.  Leading scorer and rebound Antonio Campbell (16.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg) suffered a foot injury on Saturday against Eastern Michigan.  He played just 3 minutes before exiting, and the Bobcats went on to get upset 49-53 as 7-point home favorites.  Campbell is doubtful to return tonight.

Akron is 8-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.  The Zips are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bobcats, winning by 15 at home, 12 on the road and 12 at home.  I expect another double-digit blowout victory for the Zips tonight.

Akron is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons.  THe Zips are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Akron is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bobcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Zips are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings.  Take Akron Tuesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall +14

No team has played Villanova tougher than Seton Hall over the past few seasons.  Last year, all three meetings between these teams were decided by 9 points or less.  The Pirates lost by 9 as 15-point road dogs, lost by 1 as 7-point home dogs and upset the Wildcats by 2 as 6-point dogs in the Big East Tournament.  The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Seton Hall brought back four starters from that team and his playing well again this season.  The Pirates are 12-5 this season with all five of their losses coming by 14 points or less, including three by 5 points or fewer.  Off back-to-back tough road losses to Marquette (by 3) and Providence (by 4), the Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory here.

I think Villanova comes in overvalued off three straight wins by 12 points or more against Marquette, Xavier and St. John's.  The Wildcats aren't going to be able to consistently cover these inflated spreads as the oddsmakers know the betting public is going to be quick to back the national champs moving forward.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last two years.  Seton Hall is 6-0 ATS after 15-plus games against teams that win 80% or more of their games.  The Wildcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.  Take Seton Hall Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 75-63 upset home win as 10-point dogs to Clemson.  We saw what happened the last time the Yellow Jackets pulled off a 75-63 upset at home over UNC.  They proceeded to get blown out 57-110 at Duke in their next game.

The Yellow Jackets are just 1-3 on the road this season.  They haven't even been competitive away from home as they are getting outscored by 20.0 points per game on the highway.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout here.

NC State comes in hungry for a win after two straight road losses at UNC and Boston College.  I like the Wolfpack's chances of bouncing back here considering they are 10-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per game.  In their only ACC home game, they destroyed Virginia Tech 104-78.

Georgia Tech is 2-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  NC State is a perfect 9-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with NC State Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are 9-1 at home this season.  They are 2-0 at home in Big Ten play with a 75-70 win over Ohio State and an 85-69 win over Michigan.  They also beat NC State 88-74 at home earlier this season.  It's clear that they are taking advantage of their home floor this year, and this is a short price as a result.

Maryland is coming off a huge 75-72 home win over Indiana as 1.5-point dogs.  The Terrapins have only played two true road games this year.  They erased a double-digit deficit late to beat Georgetown 76-75, and also topped Michigan 77-70.  I think this will be their toughest road test of the season here, and they are in line to suffer their first loss.

There's no question that the Fighting Illini will be the more motivated team here to avenge their 84-59 road loss to the Terrapins on December 27th in their season opener.  Conversely, the Terrapins probably feel like they just have to show up to win here after winning that game by 25, and it's going to work against them.

Illinois is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah +3

The Utah Utes are now healthy and playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five of their last six games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  Their only loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.4 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (12.1 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg) has missed two.  But they have had their full compliment of players for a few games now and the results have shown that they are one of the best teams in the Pac-12.

I've been riding UCLA a lot this season, but not lately because they've been overvalued, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And I believe them to be overvalued here after their 104-89 win at Colorado on Thursday as 5-point favorites.

That makes this a very tough spot for the Bruins, who will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  With all the traveling they've had to do, they have had little time to prepare for Utah.  Meanwhile, the Utes beat USC 86-64 at home on Thursday and now get to stay at home here.  Without the travel, they'll be by far the more prepared team for this matchup.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Utah is 9-1 at home this season and winning by 22.4 points per game.  UCLA is 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bruins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Pac-12 opponents.  UCLA is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road favorite.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -2.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 13-3 this season and have been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with recent wins over Syracuse 83-73 as 3-point favorites and Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame has only played two true road games this season.  The Fighting Irish are 2-0 in them, but they came by a combined 6 points at Miami 67-62 and at Pitt 78-77 in overtime.  This will easily be their toughest road test of the season, and I look for them to struggle in this hostile atmosphere.

Virginia Tech nearly beat Notre Dame as 12.5-point road dogs last year in their lone meeting.  The Hokies only lost that game by a final of 81-83.  And there's no question the Hokies are better this season and a legit contender in the ACC.  Look for them to prove that in this game.

The Hokies are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Notre Dame is 3-11 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +6

The Iowa Hawkeyes want revenge from a 67-89 loss at Purdue to open conference play this season.  They don't have to wait long to get it as they will now get a shot at the Boilermakers only two weeks later.  I look for them to take advantage and keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Hawkeyes have played well since that defeat.  They beat Michigan 86-83 in overtime at home, only lost 90-93 in double-overtime at Nebraska in a game they should have won, and then beat Rutgers 68-62 at home last time out.  Iowa has now won six straight home games, which includes a 78-64 victory over Iowa State as well.

This is clearly a letdown spot for Purdue.  The Boilermakers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 66-55 victory over Wisconsin, which was the favorite to win the conference coming into the season.  This will only be the third true road game for the Boilermakers this season.  They lost 64-71 at Louisville and barely beat Ohio State 76-75.

Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Boilermakers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Iowa City.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah -5

The Utah Utes have gotten healthy and are now playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won four of their last five games overall despite four of those games being played on the road.  The lone loss was a 10-point setback at Arizona.

I love the balance of this Utah team with six players averaging at least 10.6 points per game.  Leading scorer David Collette (15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Sedrick Barefield (11.9 ppg) have both missed eight games this season, while their best player in Kyle Kuzma (14.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg) has missed two.  But they have their full compliment of players now moving forward.

The USC Trojans got off to a 14-0 start this season against a very weak schedule, but they've since lost two of their last three.  They lost 61-84 at Oregon and 73-74 at home to California with their lone victory coming at home against lowly Stanford.  Their true colors are starting to show as they are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Utes are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Trojans.  Each of the last six victories have come by at least 8 points and by an average of 16.2 points per game.  This appears to be a very short price given the series history.

Utah is 8-1 at home this season, and 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  USC is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 points per game.  I think this is a very short number here and we'll take advantage.

That's especially the case considering the Cowboys will be motivated for a victory after losing two straight and three of their last four coming in.  The last two were both true road games at UNLV and Fresno State, while the other was a tough 92-94 loss to a very good USC team on a neutral court.

Conversely, Utah State comes in off two straight home victories over UNLV and New Mexico.  But the Aggies have only played three true road games this season.  They lost 73-78 at Air Force, and barely beat Utah Valley State 80-79 in their last two.  This will be by far their toughest road test of the season here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Wyoming is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Utah State, winning by 19, 23, 17 and 6 points, respectively.

Utah State is 0-7 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Wyoming is 9-0 ATS in home games versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better over the last three years.  The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  These last five trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Roll with Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -5.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles don't have to wait long for revenge.  They just lost 66-69 at Seton Hall on January 1st, and now they face the Pirates again 10 days later at home this time around.  I look for them to get their revenge in blowout fashion.

After opening the Big East campaign with a 76-66 win over Georgetown, the Golden Eagles have lost two straight tough road games and Seton Hall and Villanova.  But now they return home where they are 8-1 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 19.4 points per game.

Seton Hall has only played two true road games all season.  One was a win over a down Iowa team, while the other resulted in a 14-point loss at Creighton.  The Pirates are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* Duke/Florida State ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

The Florida State Seminoles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 15-1 this season with wins over the likes of Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest and VA Tech at home, and Virginia on the road.  They are clearly one of the best teams in the ACC.

Duke continues to be overvalued.  It has gone just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Blue Devils have only played two true road games this season, winning at UNLV but losing 75-89 at Virginia Tech despite being 4.5-point favorites.  And they only won by 11 as 26-point favorites over Boston College last time out.

Injuries have played a part in Duke's struggles, and it will be without another key player tonight.  Amile Jefferson (13.6 ppg, 10.1 rpg) has been their best interior player all season, and he is expected to miss this game with a foot injury.  Look for the Seminoles to take advantage.  They are 11-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and will feed off their rowdy home crowd tonight.

Duke is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -3.5

Off back-to-back tough road losses at NC State and Florida State, look for the Virginia Tech Hokies to come back highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight against Syracuse.  I think they come in undervalued after their first losing streak of the season.

Syracuse is starting to get some love from oddsmakers now after winning and covering back-to-back home games against Miami by 15 and Pittsburgh by 11.  But keep in mind that the Orange are 0-2 in true road games with blowout losses to Wisconsin by 17 as 6-point dogs and to Boston College by 15 as 10.5-point favorites.

Also keep in mind that Virginia Tech is 9-0 at home this season and winning by 19.7 points per game on average.  That includes a win over Duke 89-75 as 4.5-point dogs in their ACC home opener just a week and a half ago.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant win here as well.

Virginia Tech is 15-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games.  The Hokies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with Virginia Tech Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -3

The Purdue Boilermakers are on a mission to win the Big Ten this season.  Almost everyone picked Wisconsin prior to the season, so they know that they need to knock off the Badgers here.  That's especially the case after suffering an upset loss to Minnesota a couple games back.

Purdue has a tremendous home-court advantage, and it owned Wisconsin in both meetings last season.  The Boilermakers won 91-80 as 6-point home favorites and 61-55 as 5-point road favorites in their two meetings last year.  I think they win this game as well for their 3rd in a row in the series.

Purdue is 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Wisconsin.  The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game this season.  Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with Purdue Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +15

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They are a senior-laden team that has won four straight, including each of their first two Pac-12 games with a 79-74 win at Washington as 12.5-point dogs and a 75-62 home victory over Oregon State as 4-point favorites.

I think Oregon comes into this game way overvalued due to winning 12 straight, including three straight to open conference play with victories over UCLA and USC at home, as well as Washington on the road.  It's time to fade them now that they are laying a whopping 15 points on the road to the Cougars here.

Washington is a common opponent.  The Cougars beat the Huskies 79-74 on the road, while the Ducks beat them 83-61 on the road.  But that was a close game against Washington until Tyler Dorsey caught fire late in the second half to pull away.  He made 8-of-12 3-pointers for the game with almost all of them coming in the second half.  It was a 22-point win, but that game was much closer than that.

The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Washington State upset Oregon 108-99 in its last home meeting with the Ducks.  The Ducks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  The Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.  The Cougars are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State +11

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued right now due to their 14-0 start to the season that has them sitting as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  We saw evidence of that last time out as the Bears needed a game-winner late to beat Iowa State 65-63 at home as 8.5-point favorites.

The Bears are feeling fat and happy and ripe for an upset right now.  Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are hungry for their first taste of victory within the conference after starting 0-2 with a home loss to West Virginia, and a tough 79-82 road loss at Texas.

But we've seen earlier what the Cowboys are capable of on the road.  They've blown out Georgetown 97-70 on a neutral court, won 93-76 at Wichita State as 7.5-point dogs, and only lost 70-71 at Maryland.  They are certainly capable of pulling off the upset here, let alone staying within 11 points of Baylor here.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (BAYLOR) - off a home win against a conference rival, with just two starters returning from last season are 70-36 (66%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma +11

The Oklahoma Sooners are way undervalued right now.  They have lost five straight coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  But four of those five losses came by 5 points or less with the lone exception being a blowout loss to unbeaten Baylor, one of the top teams in the country.

Oklahoma was just catching 11 points at TCU and only lost 57-60.  But the Sooners have been without PG Jordan Woodard in recent games, and he's doubtful again tonight.  The oddsmakers are over-adjusting for his absence, and the Sooners are starting to get used to playing without him.

I think this is a tremendous spot to fade Kansas State, which is coming off its biggest game of the season in an 88-90 road loss to rival Kansas.  I look for the Wildcats to suffer an emotional hangover from that defeat and to come out flat today against the Sooners.  They won't have the kind of focus and intensity it's going to take to put the Sooners away by double-digits.  Oklahoma will be the more motivated team looking to end this 5-game skid.

Nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Sooners are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 91-82 upset road win at Purdue as 14-point dogs.  This is clearly a huge letdown spot for them now, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight at Northwestern.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats had their nine-game winning streak snapped with a 52-61 road loss to Michigan State last time out.  That came after an 87-77 win at Penn State in their conference opener.  The Wildcats will be hungry to get back in the win column here and to win their conference home opener tonight.

Both of these teams are improved this season, but it's worth noting that the Wildcats destroyed the Golden Gophers in their two meetings last year.  They won 77-52 as 2.5-point road favorites and 82-58 as 8-point home favorites.  They have now won five of the last six meetings in this series while going 5-1 ATS in the process.

Minnesota is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Northwestern is 6-0 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Golden Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  These four trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Roll with Northwestern Thursday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall -3.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most improved teams in the country under Dan D'Antoni, Mike D'Antoni's brother, this season.  They have gone 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season, time and time again beting undervalued by oddsmakers.

Some of their losses have actually been more impressive than their wins.  They went into Cincinnati and forced overtime as 20.5-point dogs, only losing 91-93.  They went into Pitt as 12.5-point dogs and only lost 106-112.  Despite those back-to-back losses in late December, they didn't suffer any hangover as they went on to beat FIU 94-70 as 4-point road favorites and FAU 89-72 as 6.5-point favorites in their last two contests.

Marshall has a better team than last year, yet it swept Old Dominion in the season series last season.  The Thundering Herd won 78-75 as 6.5-point road dogs, then came back and stomped the Monarchs 82-65 as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  I think another blowout can be expected here.

Marshall is 10-1 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 7-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Thundering Herd are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +10

After back-to-back huge victories over UCLA and USC, the Oregon Ducks are overvalued now.  The betting public has jumped all over them after handing both UCLA and USC their first losses of the season, and now they are being asked to lay a whopping 10 points on the road to Washington tonight.

Let's not let two performances mask how poorly the Ducks played in the early going.  They went just 4-7 ATS in their first 11 lined games.  And both of those big wins over UCLA and USC came at home, where the Ducks rarely lose.  But they have played just one true road game the entire season, which was a 49-66 loss at Baylor.

Washington comes in undervalued after a bad 74-79 home loss as 12.5-point favorites against Washington State.  But that was a rivalry game where anything can happen.  And the result has provided some extra line value here for the Huskies as the betting public wants nothing to do with this team, which has gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And these games are almost always close.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  Washington is 6-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home meetings.  The Ducks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Washington Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +10.5

This is a big number for the Duquesne Dukes to be catching tonight in their conference home opener against Virginia Commonwealth.  I'll gladly take the points with the way that the Dukes have been playing coming in.  This is a game they will have a chance to win outright.

The Dukes are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  That includes a 64-55 upset of Pitt as 14-point dogs on a neutral court.  The Dukes have lost five games this season, but only one of them came by double-digits, which was a true road game at national power Kentucky.  That is obviously understandable.

VCU has played only three true road games this season, and although it is 3-0 in those games, none of them came by double-digits.  They beat Liberty 64-59, Old Dominion 67-64 and George Mason 73-64.  As stated before, the Dukes haven't lost a home game by double-digits this year.

Duquesne is 6-0 ATS in a home game when the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last three seasons.  VCU is 58-83 ATS in its last 141 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  The Dukes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take Duquesne Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure PK

I like this St. Bonaventure team.  It made the NCAA Tournament last year and is off to a 10-4 start this season with its four losses all coming by 7 points or less.  The Bonnies have gone on the road and won and covered against both Hofstra and UMass, winning 89-77 as 2-point dogs against the Minutemen in their Atlantic 10 opener.

Dayton is a quality team again this season at 10-3, but it has only played one true road game all season.  The Flyers will now be playing for the first time on the road since November 15th.  And they are likely to be doing it without their best player.

Charles Cooke has a bone bruise in his back and is questionable to play tonight.  He averages 18.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories.  The Flyers were already without third-leading scorer Josh Cunningham (13.2 ppg), who also leads the team with an average of 3.8 assists per game.

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in road games off a combined score of 125 points or fewer over the last three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 12-3 ATS off a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years.  The Flyers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Bonnies are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

15* UNC/Clemson ESPN 2 Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

I expect a big effort from the North Carolina Tar Heels tonight.  They are coming off an ugly 63-75 loss at Georgia Tech as 17-point favorites in their ACC opener on Saturday.  Look for them to play motivated basketball here tonight to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play.

North Carolina leads the all-time series 130-20 over Clemson.  The Tar Heels have won eight straight meetings with the Tigers dating back to 2011.  They have won the last five in blowout fashion by 11, 24, 19, 9 and 22 points, respectively.

Clemson comes into this game getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to winning nine straight and covering each of their last four.  But that has mostly come against a soft schedule, and they had huge comeback wins over the two best teams they played in South Carolina (by 2) and Wake Forest (by 5).  They closed the game on a 12-0 run to beat the Demon Deacons on Saturday, which was highly unlikely.

North Carolina is 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 points or more since 1997.  The Tar Heels are 47-22 ATS in their last 69 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take North Carolina Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +8.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are showing great value here as 8.5-point home dogs to the Charleston Cougars.  I think they're good enough to win this game outright, so getting the 8.5 points is just an added bonus here.

Delaware is 5-1 at home this season.  Its only loss came last time out against a very good Hofstra team by a final of 56-58 as 8-point dogs.  The Blue Hens pulled the 63-54 upset of Iona as 10-point dogs in their previous home game, too.  If they can handle those two teams, they can certainly handle Charleston.

One thing that really stood out to me was just how closely-contested this series has been in recent years.  Indeed, a ridiculous eight straight meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Seven of those came within the last three seasons.  And the home team has won seven of the last nine meetings.

Delaware is 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Charleston.  The Cougars are 14-39 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.  The Blue Hens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Delaware is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog.  Charleston is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  Bet Delaware Monday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They have gone a perfect 8-0 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 19.0 points per game on average.  We'll gladly back them as only 2-point favorites over Northern Iowa here.

Northern Iowa is one of the most overrated teams in the land.  The Panthers are still getting too much credit for making the NCAA Tournament last year and winning a game, but this isn't nearly as good of a team.  That's evident by their 5-7 SU & 3-8 ATS record this year.  The Panthers have lost three straight and seven of their last nine while going 1-8 ATS in the process.  Their only wins came at home against North Dakota and South Dakota State.

The Purple Aces have had this game circled on their calendars.  Remarkably, they went 0-3 against Northern Iowa last season with the three losses coming by a combined 7 points.  They lost by 3, 2 and 2 points to the Panthers.  There's no question they are going to want some revenge here, and I think they get it in a big way.

Northern Iowa is 0-6 ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Evansville Sunday.

15* Nebraska/Maryland Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -7.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 13-1 this season, yet they continue lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were only 3-point home favorites over Illinois in their Big Ten opener, and I backed them successfully in an 84-59 blowout win.

I'm going to back the Terrapins again here Sunday at this short 7.5-point spread.  The main reason I like them here is because it's a good spot to fade the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who are coming off their biggest win of the season.  They beat Indiana 87-83 as 13.5-point road dogs on Wednesday.

Now the Cornhuskers are primed for a letdown here.  That's an Indiana team that is really struggling of late with recent double-digit losses to Louisville and Butler as well.  So I think the Huskers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for that victory.  After all, the Huskers were terrible in their previous four games, losing to Creighton by 15, to Kansas by 17, to Gardner Webb by 8 as 14-point favorites, and they barely beat Southern 81-76 at home.

Nebraska is 11-29 ATS in its last 40 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Maryland is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 home games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Cornhuskers are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5.  Bet Maryland Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +9

The Florida State Seminoles are one of the top teams in the country in my opinion.  They are off to a 13-1 start this season.  They had a bad loss to Temple on a neutral court, but they've also beating some good teams in Illinois (by 11), Minnesota (by 8), George Washington (by 19), Florida (by 5) and Wake Forest (by 16).

I think Virginia comes in overvalued here due to back-to-back road wins and covers against both California and Louisville.  Well, California is down a notch this year, and Louisville was in a letdown spot off its huge win over Kentucky in its previous game.

We've seen Virginia actually play better on the road than at home this year.  The Cavaliers lost to West Virginia 57-66 at home, and they barely escaped with a 63-61 victory over Ohio State as 12-point favorites.  I think the Seminoles are good enough to stay within 9 points here and possibly pull off the upset.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the last two seasons.  The Seminoles are 10-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three years.  The Cavaliers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* Villanova/Creighton Battle of Unbeatens on Creighton +1

The Creighton Bluejays are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 13-0 start this season and have consistently been undervalued, going 9-3 ATS in their lined games.  I have backed them for a handful of them, and I'm going to take them here as they still aren't getting the respect they deserve.

Of course the defending champion Villanova Wildcats are going to be getting a ton of respect from the betting public.  That is the case here as they are road favorites.  But the Wildcats aren't as good as they were last year, and they just survived a 68-65 scare at home against DePaul as 24.5-point favorites on Wednesday.

The Bluejays have beaten some good teams along the way.  They beat Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss on neutral courts, Nebraska and Arizona State in true road games by 15 and 11 points, respectively.  They also beat a very good Wisconsin team by 12 in their toughest home game this year.  They are battle-tested and ready to show Villanova that they are the team to beat in the Big East this year.

Creighton is 12-3 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Big East games.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games.  It will be rocking today at Creighton, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1

Wake Forest has taken a big step forward under Danny Manning this season.  The Demon Deacons are 9-4 this season while playing an absolutely brutal schedule.  Their four losses have all come on the road to the likes of Villanova, Northwestern, Xavier and Florida State.  They were in three of those games down to the wire.

But the Demon Deacons are 5-0 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game.  I just backed them recently in a 110-76 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites.  They have won all five of their home games by double-digits this year.

Clemson is a quality team, but this team hasn't been tested on the road.  The Tigers have played just one true road game, which was a 62-60 win at South Carolina in which they trailed basically the entire way before pulling it out in the closing seconds.  I don't believe they will be so fortunate in this one.

Clemson is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games after covering four or five of its last six against the spread.  The Demon Deacons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.  Wake Forest is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 79-44 (64.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (WAKE FOREST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 57-26 (68.7%) ATS over the last five years.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

The UMass Minutemen are off to a 10-3 start this season.  They have been an undervalued commodity all year, which is evident by their 6-1 ATS mark.  And now they're only laying 1.5 points at home to St. Bonaventure, once again lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

UMass has gone 8-1 at home this season.  And their three losses all came down to the wire as they could easily be 13-0.  They lost by 2 at Ole Miss as 11-point dogs, by 6 at Providence as 8-point dogs and by 3 at home to UCF as 4-point dogs, covering the spread in all three defeats.

St. Bonaventure just lost to Canisius 101-106 as 11.5-point home favorites last time out.  They have also lost to the likes of UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas-Little Rock this season.  They are just 8-4 on the season and are clearly down a couple notches from last year.  They really don't have a significant win yet.  And they've only played one true road game, which was a 6-point win at Hofstra.

UMass is 9-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last two seasons.  The Bonnies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Minutemen are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take UMass Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego +11.5

The San Diego Toreros are a much-improved team this season.  They have gone 7-5 SU & 6-2 ATS in all games this year.  And four of their five losses have come to elite competition, and they covered the spread in a couple of those.

They lost by 10 at San Diego State as 19-point dogs and by 20 at UCLA as 27.5-point dogs.  After a 2-5 start to the season, the Toreros have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs three times during this stretch, including twice on the road.

San Francisco is coming off a huge tournament in which it got to play Utah, Illinois State and San Diego State all on neutral courts.  It culminated in a 48-62 loss to San Diego State on Christmas Day, which gives these teams a common opponent.  San Diego lost by only 10 at San Diego State.

One thing that has stuck with me the last few years is that San Francisco has been a great road team, and a terrible home team.  The Dons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series.  Roll with San Diego Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Auburn -1.5

The Auburn Tigers continue flying under the radar this season.  Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job with the Tigers and has them off to a 10-2 start this season.  They have been competitive in every game outside of a neutral court loss to Purdue.

But they've beaten the likes of Texas Tech 67-65 as 6.5-point dogs, UAB 74-70 as 4-point dogs, Oklahoma 74-70 as 4.5-point dogs and UConn 70-67 as 3.5-point road dogs.  So, they are battle-tested as well and certainly haven't benefited from a cake schedule.

Georgia is just 8-4 this season.  Three of those losses came by double-digits.  The Bulldogs are 1-2 in true road games with a 10-point loss at Clemson, a win at down Georgia Tech, and a 7-point loss at Oakland despite being 2.5-point favorites.  The Bulldogs are battle-tested as well, but they have failed every test when taking a step up in class. I'm not sure why they continue to get so much respect from oddsmakers here as only 1.5-point road dogs.

Auburn has gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Georgia, and this is the best team the Tigers have had in a long time.  Auburn is 10-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Take Auburn Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes come into the Big Ten season undervalued.  They started the season so ugly that they were going to be undervalued heading into conference action.  And they still are despite turning their season around and playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 14-point win over Iowa State as 6-point home dogs and a 23-point win over Northern Iowa as 2.5-point dogs on a neutral.  Now the Hawkeyes are catching 13.5 points against Purdue, which is simply too much.

The Boilermakers are a quality team and one of the best in the conference, but they have struggled against Iowa.  In fact, the Hawkeyes won both meetings last season, winning 83-71 as 2.5-point home favorites and 70-63 as 9-point road dogs.  Iowa has won four of the last five meetings in this series overall.  Bet Iowa Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +8.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Danny Manning has his players in place in his third season on the job, and the Demon Deacons have rewarded him with a 9-3 start to the season.

The three losses were all understandable as they lost on a neutral to No. 1 Villanova, on the road to Northwestern (by 7) and on the road to Xavier (by 4).  Following that loss to Xavier, I backed them in a blowout 110-76 home victory over LSU as 10-point favorites.  I'll back them again here as 8.5-point road dogs as they are battle-tested and ready to give Florida State a run for its money in the ACC opener.

I think the Seminoles come into this game overvalued due to their 12-1 start this season.  But their schedule hasn't been nearly as tough as that of Wake Forest.  They haven't played a true road game yet, and their four neutral court games have come against Temple (lost by 3), Illinois, George Washington and Manhattan.  Heck, they only beat Samford 76-68 as 22-point home favorites last time out, and I was on Samford in that game.

Wake Forest is 15-6 ATS when playing on its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  Florida State is 15-36 ATS in its last 51 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

This is a very generous price to get the Maryland Terrapins tonight in their Big Ten opener.  The Terrapins are off to a 12-1 start this season, and while they're down a notch from last season, they still have loads of talent.  And they continue to be overlooked by oddsmakers.

The Illinois Fighting Illini are improved at 10-3 on the season.  They have won six straight coming in and are getting too much respect for it.  When they took a step up in class against WVU (lost by 32) and Florida State (lost by 11), they didn't fare well.  And they also lost at home to Winthrop earlier this season.

But the biggest reason I like Maryland here is because Illinois hasn't played a true road game all season.  That's right, it's December 27th and they haven't tasted what a hostile road atmosphere feels like.  I think they'll be in over their heads here against the Terrapins, who beat Illinois 81-55 at home last season.

Illinois is 10-22 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams who make 72% of their attempts or better over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  The Terrapins are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Roll with Maryland Tuesday.

15* Auburn/UConn ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut -3.5

This is a great spot to fade the Auburn Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 74-70 upset win over Oklahoma as 4.5-point dogs on Wednesday night.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for UConn, and they this is clearly a letdown spot for them off that big win over the Sooners.

UConn has had four days off to get ready for Auburn after beating North Florida 80-59 on Sunday.  The Huskies will be ready to go, and they are an undervalued team right now because they are just 5-5 on the season.  They got off to a slow start but are playing much better of late, beating Syracuse 52-50 as 8-point dogs and narrowly losing at Ohio State 60-64 as 9.5-point dogs.

Auburn comes in overvalued off that win over Oklahoma that is part of its 9-2 start to the season.  But the Tigers have only played on true road game this season, which was a narrow 70-74 win at UAB.  This will clearly be the toughest atmosphere that the Tigers have played in this season, and I don't expect their young team to handle it very well, especially with only one day to prepare for the Huskies.

UConn is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. SEC opponents.  Take Connecticut Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -10

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-3 start this year with their three losses coming to Villanova, Northwestern and Xavier all on the road.  After losing to Xavier just 65-69 as 10-point dogs last time out, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout home victory against LSU tonight.

Wake Forest has played a road-heavy schedule and is certainly battle-tested at this point.  But the Demon Deacons have taken care of business when at home, going 4-0 while outscoring teams by 17.5 points per game on average.  John Collins (17.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg) is an absolute beast, and Bryant Crawford (13.7 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Keyshawn Woods (12.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.0 apg) have taken their games up a notch this year.

LSU is certainly a rebuilding team after all it lost last year.  The Tigers are off to an 8-2 start this season, but seven of their eight wins came at home against suspect competition.  They have played three neutral site games, beating Old Dominion 66-60, but getting blown out by both Wichita State (47-82) and VCU (74-85).  This will be the Tigers' first true road game of the season, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

LS is 4-16 ATS off a home win over the last two season.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games versus good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Bet Wake Forest Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -18

North Carolina should be a much bigger favorite against Northern Iowa in this contest in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels will be motivated following a tough 100-103 loss to Kentucky last time out, and I look for them to respond with a blowout home victory.

Following their only other loss of the season on the road to Indiana, UNC bounced back with a 45-point win.  And I think the Tar Heels are undervalued right now because they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  But they were playing without their best player in Joel Berry for most of those games, and he just returned against Kentucky.

Northern Iowa is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes a 22-point loss to Xavier and a 23-point loss to Iowa.  Those two results alone show that UNC should win by 20-plus.  The Panthers also lost at home to George Mason and on the road to Wyoming during this stretch.  Their only two wins came at home against South Dakota State and North Dakota.

UNC is an explosive offensive team that averages 89.0 points per game.  It will control the tempo playing at home and get Northern Iowa out of its comfort zone.  The Panthers like to slow it down to make up for their offensive liabilities.  They only average 66.3 points on 40.4% shooting this season, including 62.5 points and 37.9% shooting on the road.

Northern Iowa is 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or fewer over the past two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams who average 77 or more points per game over the past two seasons.  Northern Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Take North Carolina Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland State +8

I really like this Portland State Pilots team.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season and have a ton of depth.  They have six players scoring at least 10.3 points per game and a 7th that averages 8.9 points.  That helped them overcome the loss of leading scorer Braxton Tucker (16.8 ppg) in their last four games.

They have gone 3-1 without Tucker with their only loss coming by a final of 79-71 at CS-Bakersfield.  They even went on the road and beat San Francisco 82-78 as 9.5-point dogs last time out.  Not to mention, they beat Pepperdine 91-85 as 11.5-point road dogs in the game Tucker was injured.  So I'm not concerned whether or not he plays in this game, though he is questionable and could return, which would only be an added bonus.

The biggest reason to back Portland State tonight is the rest advantage, and the fact that it will be hyped to play rival Portland.  The Vikings have had three days off since beating San Francisco on Friday.  Portland will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here after beating South Dakota on Friday and Oregon State on Sunday.

The win over Oregon State has to feel good beating a Power 5 program, but the Beavers are way down this year and missing their best player.  I think the Pilots could suffer a letdown here following that win.  Plus, they were terrible in their previous two games, only beating South Dakota 85-82 and lowly UTRGV 90-89.  The Pilots should not be laying 8 points based on those results, especially playing their 3rd game in 5 days.

Portland is 12-30 ATS in its last 42 vs. teams who allow 77 or more points per game.  Portland State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a combined score of 155 points or more in three straight games.  The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Pilots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 7.0 to 12.5 points.  Portland is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games following a win.  Take Portland State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Samford +22.5

The Samford Bulldogs are a quality team capable of giving Florida State a run for its money today.  Samford is 7-3 this season, which includes a solid 4-2 record in true road games.  The Bulldogs' only two road losses this season came at New Mexico State by 10 and at Cincinnati by 15 as 19-point dogs.

Florida State comes in overvalued due to its 11-1 record this season.  The Seminoles are starting to lay the kinds of big numbers that are going to be tough for them to cover moving forward.  They just beat a bad Manhattan team by 16 as 24.5-point favorites on Saturday.

Now the Seminoles have had only one day to prepare for Samford after playing on Saturday.  The Bulldogs have had two days off in between games after a nice 82-79 win at South Alabama as 4-point dogs on Friday.  And I think the Seminoles could be looking ahead here as their next game will be their ACC opener against Wake Forest.

Samford is 10-1 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the past two seasons.  Florida State is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing against a team with a winning record.  Samford is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.  Take Samford Monday.