Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Alabama +1

The No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies are a good team to fade opening SEC play.  They are overvalued due to their 11-1 start.  But this isn’t the same team that they were early in the season due to all the injuries and suspensions here of late. 

That has shown up in their last two games as the Aggies only beat Northern Kentucky by 6 and Buffalo by 16 at home.  Now they will be playing just their second true road games of the entire season.  And they are missing leading scorer DJ Hogg (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) due to a suspension and third-leading scorer Admon Gilder (12.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) due to a knee injury. 

Alabama was banged-up early but now is healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward under Avery Johnson.  The Crimson Tide have gone 5-1 at home this season with solid wins over Texas-Arlington, LA Tech and Rhode Island. 

Texas A&M is 3-11 ATS following an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 50 points or fewer.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take Alabama Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +16 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  This is a team that lost by 24 to VA Tech, by 9 to LA Lafayette, but 8 to South Dakota State and by 13 to Indiana among their six losses already this season. 

But people are quick to forget those awful losses because the Hawkeyes have won four in a row coming into this game, including covering three straight spreads.  But those four wins came against Southern University, Drake, Southern Utah and Colorado.  It hasn’t exactly been murderer’s row to say the least. 

Now the Hawkeyes have to face a game Northern Illinois team that hasn’t lost any game by more than 14 points this season.  The Huskies covered as 15.5-point underdogs in a 14-point loss at Iowa State, the same Iowa State team that beat Iowa 84-78.  Even more impressively, they only lost 70-79 at Marquette as 16.5-point dogs. 

I think this is a lookahead spot for Iowa to a big showdown with Michigan on January 2nd as they get back into conference play.  NIU is 74-46 ATS in its last 120 games as a dog of 10 or more points.  The Huskies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Drake OVER 139

The Drake Bulldogs play an up-tempo system under first-year head coach Niko Medved now.  The betting markets have been slow to catch up as the OVER is 7-3 in all Drake games this season.  I look for a high-scoring affair tonight in their conference opener with Bradley. 

Drake is putting up 79.5 points per game and giving up 77.6 points per game on the season.  They are shooting 41% from 3-point range which has been the key to their offensive success.  But they still don’t play any defense, giving up 47.4% shooting to opponents. 

Just looking at this head-to-head history it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and that was before Medved was head coach at Drake.  They combined for 143 or more points in four of the five meetings.  And they averaged 145.0 combined points per game in those five meetings.  Drake will control the tempo playing at home tonight. 

Drake is 8-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 9-1 in Drake’s last 10 December games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games overall.  The OVER is 9-2 in Bulldogs last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 45-20 in Bulldogs last 65 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +6.5 

The Providence Friars are are undervalued right now because of a 2-9 ATS start to the season.  But that is largely due to some significant injuries, and this team is getting healthy heading into conference season.  I expect them to make a statement with likely an upset victory over St. John’s tonight, though we’ll take the points for some insurance. 

St. John’s is getting a lot of love due to its 10-2 start to the season.  But the Red Storm have played a considerably weaker schedule than Providence.  They still haven’t played a true road game, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Missouri (82-90) and Arizona State (70-82) on a neutral court.  The Red Storm are still without their best player in G Marcus Lovett, who is doubtful tonight with an ankle injury. 

Providence is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with St. John’s.  Home-court advantage has meant very little as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Providence has won its last three trips to St. John’s by 11, 14 and 17 points. 

The Friars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Providence is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  St. John’s is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Providence Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +11.5 

The head-to-head series between Colorado State and Boise State has been remarkably close.  That’s why the Rams getting 11.5 points here is way too much, and I think there’s a ton of value with this double-digit underdog tonight. 

Indeed, each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  They have been decided by 3, 1, 7, 4, 4, 4, and 6 points in the last seven meetings, respectively.  Colorado State has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. 

Boise State is 1-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are actually losing 74.4 to 74.6 on average in this spot.  The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  Roll with Colorado State Wednesday. 

15* Ohio State/UNC CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State +7 

Former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann was a great hire at Ohio State.  After a semi slow start to the season, this team has really kicked it into gear of late.  I think we are getting the Buckeyes at a great value here against UNC as 7-point underdogs on a neutral court down in New Orleans Saturday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road as 7.5-point underdogs, and topped Michigan 71-62 as 2-point home favorites during this stretch.  The other three wins came by 35, 13 and 29 points against overmatched competition. 

The UNC Tar Heels are not playing well at all.  They trailed almost the entire way before going on a run late to squeak by Tennessee 78-73.  Then they suffered one of the most shocking losses of the season with a 75-79 home loss to Wofford as 25-point favorites on Wednesday, December 20th.  That’s not the kind of effort that would warrant them being 7-point favorites here. 

North Carolina is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 80%.  Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (UNC) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in December games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Ohio State Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +6.5 

The Xavier Musketeers are clearly vulnerable right now due to all their injuries.  That has shown in their last two games.  They beat East Tennessee State 68-66 as 21.5-point favorites, needing to erase a 22-point second half deficit to do so.  Then they only beat Marshall 81-77 as 19-point home favorites last time out. 

That Marshall game was on Tuesday, so they have only had two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.  Now four key players are questionable to play tonight for the Musketeers.  They are three of their top four scorers in J.P. Macura (11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Tyrique Jones (9.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Kaiser Gates (9.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), plus key bench player Naji Marshall (8.1 ppg). 

Northern Iowa is consistently one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley year in and year out.  They are 8-3 SU this season with their only losses coming to North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State.  They have beaten UNLV, NC State and SMU, so they have gone through the gauntlet.  Now they are going to want revenge from two losses to Xavier last season. 

They didn’t get to play Xavier at home last year, but they do this season, and they have a great home-court advantage.  The Panthers are 6-0 at home this season winning by 23.5 points per game on average. The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Take Northern Iowa Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3 

The Georgia Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They are 8-2 on the year, including 5-0 at home.  Mark Fox has one of his best teams yet and a clear NCAA Tournament team this year. 

The Temple Owls have too many concerning performances of late to trust them only catching 3 points on the road here.  They have losses to both La Salle and George Washington, they only beat St. Joe’s by 3 as 10.5-point favorites, lost to Villanova by 20 as 9.5-point dogs, and barely beat Drexel by 3 last time out as 16-point home favorites.  Those efforts show they can’t compete with Georgia. 

Georgia is 10-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  Temple is 1-9 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Georgia Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +5.5 

The Portland State Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They have gone 9-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their nine lined games.  Now they’re catching 5.5 points tonight against a rebuilding California Bears team in a game that they’ll likely win outright. 

The Vikings’ three losses have all come against very good teams.  They lost 81-99 as 24.5-point dogs to Duke, 69-71 as 12-point dogs to Butler, and 84-95 as 13-point road dogs at Oregon.  They have beaten Stanford and everyone else they have faced this year. 

California is just 6-6 with losses to the likes of UC-Riverside (66-74) as 13.5-point favorites at home, Chaminade (72-96) without a line on the road and Central Arkansas (69-96) without a line at home.  Those three results right there should show just how poor of shape the Bears are really in this season. 

California is 0-8 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 0-9 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in all games this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Vikings.  Roll with Portland State Thursday. 

15* Houston/Providence ESPNU No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson has this team playing at a very high level.  They are off to a 9-2 start this season with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They even beat Arkansas 91-65 as 4-point home dogs for their signature win. 

Providence is struggling against the spread right now due to all their injuries.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only beat Rider 88-84 as 14-point favorites, lost at Rhode Island 68-75 as 4-point dogs, only beat Brown 77-72 as 18.5-point home favorites, lost at UMass 63-72 as 4.5-point favorites.  And there wasn’t even a line in their last game against Stony Brook, and they only won that game 62-60 at home. 

The Friars' best player Emmitt Holt is out for the season.  Both Alpha Diallo (11.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Maliek White (6.1 ppg) are doubtful to play tonight.  And their floor general in point guard Kyron Cartwright (9.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) is questionable after suffering an ankle injury in his previous game.  They are simply missing too many players right now, which is the reason for their recent struggles. 

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Houston) - an explosive offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against a good offensive team (74-76 ppg), after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games are 77-38 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Friars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Houston Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +6.5 

The Belmont Bruins cannot be this big of road underdogs to Western Kentucky given how well they have played on the road this season.  And this is a WKU team that returned zero starters from last year and simply isn’t very good. 

Belmont has road losses to Washington (82-86), Providence (65-66) and TCU (76-87) that show they are capable of beating Western Kentucky.  They also have a road win at Middle Tennessee (69-63) as 7-point underdogs and a home win over Vanderbilt (69-60) as 4-point underdogs. 

Western Kentucky is actually a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 9 days, which is a lot when you consider last week was Finals Week.  And the Hilltoppers won’t have many fans in attendance at home here with everyone on Spring Break, so the home-court advantage is neutralized. 

Belmont is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons.  The Bruins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  Take Belmont Tuesday. 

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/South Dakota State OVER 153.5 

We have the perfect storm for an OVER here with two teams that love to push the tempo in Drake and South Dakota State.  Niko Medved has brought his up-tempo system to Drake in his first year hear, and T.J. Otzelberger learned under Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State and has brought that system to South Dakota State. 

The Jack Rabbits are averaging 83.9 points per game on the season and shooting an impressive 41.4% from 3-point range on 26 attempts per game.  They give up 76.1 points per game because of the frenetic pace they play at. 

The Bulldogs have really improved offensively this season, averaging 79.9 points per game and shooting 41.6% from 3-point range on 25 attempts per game.  They have been pretty poor defensively, though, allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting. 

Drake is 7-0 OVER after allowing 85 points or more over the last two seasons.  South Dakota State is 13-3 OVER vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 25-10-1 in Bulldogs last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 8-2 in Jack Rabbits last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 40-19-1 in Jack Rabbits last 60 non-conference games.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Marshall/Xavier CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +21 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 8-3 this season and Dan D’Antoni, the broker of Mike D’Antoni of the Houston Rockets, has this offense hitting on all cylinders.  The Thundering Herd have won four straight coming in and are scoring 90.2 points per game on the season. 

Marshall is a very difficult team to prepare for, and that will be a problem for a Xavier team that needed to erase a 22-point deficit in the second half to beat lowly East Tennessee State 68-66 on Saturday as 21.5-point favorites.  They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and they have only two days to get ready for Marshall.  They also won’t have many fans in attendance with this being Christmas Break. 

Xavier coach Chris Mack was impressed by what he saw on film from the Thundering Herd.  "I love the way they play offense," he said. "Elmore is a special player. He's as adept shooting threes as he is getting to the foul line. He's surrounded by some really skilled personnel."

"We have a lot of respect for Marshall," Mack said. "They do a great job of spacing the floor and playing with space. They are difficult to prepare for. It's a big challenge.”

Marshall is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the past two seasons.  The Thundering Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East opponents.  I think the Musketeers find themselves in another battle they don’t want to be in tonight.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Wichita State CBB No-Brainer on Wichita State -7.5 

The Wichita State Shockers are ranked No. 3 in the country thanks to their 8-1 start and their five returning starters from last year.  They have played the gauntlet, facing the likes of Cal, Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor and Oklahoma State with all five of those games either on a neutral or on the road. 

Now they get Oklahoma at home in one of the most hostile arenas in college basketball.  And I think this Oklahoma team is way overrated and doesn’t have a real good victory to its name yet.  USC and Oregon are both down, and they lost tot he best team they have faced in Arkansas 83-92.   

Now the Shockers will be the best team they have played yet, and it will actually be their first true road game of the season.  I don’t expect this young Sooners team led by freshman Trae Young to be able to handle this situation very well at all. 

Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 1-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons.  The Shockers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Roll with Wichita State Saturday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +15 

The Portland State Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their eight lined games.  Now they are catching 15 points from a rebuilding Oregon team that has no business laying this kind of number. 

Portland State’s two losses this season came to Duke (81-99) as 24.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Butler (69-71) as 12-point dogs on a neutral.  The Vikings have pulled outright upsets over UC-Riverside, Utah State, Stanford, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara with four of those wins coming on the road.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve. 

Oregon is just 7-3 SU & 4-5 ATS on the season.  The Ducks returned just one starter from last year.  They have been upset by UConn and Boise State, and they also lost to Oklahoma by 10.  Their 74-68 win over Texas Southern as 20-point home favorites on Monday was also a concerning result.  Now they have had just one day to get ready for Portland State. 

The Vikings are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.  The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  The Vikings are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  Roll with Portland State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Columbia +12 

Off their shocking 89-84 upset win as 15-point underdogs to Duke on Saturday, the Boston College Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Columbia.  They won’t show up at all, and don’t be surprised if they lose outright.  But I certainly love getting Columbia as 12-point dogs in this spot. 

This is the same Boston College team that lost by 11 to Texas Tech, by 22 to Providence and by 9 to Nebraska.  It’s also a BC team that only beat Colgate 83-79 in its previous home game before beating Duke.  Go figure. 

Columbia is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate.  This team has simply had brutal luck in close games, losing seven times by 10 points or less.  The two exceptions?  A 15-point road loss as 25.5-point dogs at Villanova and a 14-point road loss as 13.5-point dogs at Penn State.  That effort against Villanova alone shows that this team is more than capable of hanging with Boston College on the road tonight. 

Columbia is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games as a dog of 10 points or more.  Columbia is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points.  Boston College is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. teams who allow 45% or more shooting to opponents.  The Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Roll with Columbia Tuesday. 

15* ASU/Kansas ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona State +12.5 

The Arizona State Sun Devils just cannot get any respect from the books.  They have opened 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their eight games this season, yet they are still catching 12.5 points against the Kansas Jayhawks here Sunday.  It’s too much. 

I realize the Jayhawks will be motivated following one of the biggest upset losses of the season.  They lost to Washington 65-74 as 22-point favorites last time out.  But I think that was just more of a sign of the Jayhawks being overrated than anything.  And they remain overrated here Sunday. 

The Sun Devils have proven themselves against some good competition.  They beat Kansas State 92-90 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, Xavier 102-86 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and St. John’s 82-70 as 5-point favorites on a neutral.  They are full capable of hanging with the Jayhawks today as well. 

Senior guards Tra Holder and Shannon Evans average 20.3 and 18.6 points, respectively, while freshman forward Romello White averages 15.6 points and leads Arizona State on the boards with 9.3 rebounds per game.  ASU small forward Mickey Mitchell, a transfer from Ohio State, is eligible and is expected to make his Sun Devils debut Sunday.  The Sun Devils will give the Jayhawks a run for their money this afternoon.  Take Arizona State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -9.5 

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies went 20-12 last season.  They returned four starters from that team, including one of the best backcourts in the country in Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg last year) and Jaylen Adams (20.6 ppg, 6.5 apg). 

Yale was expected to compete for an Ivy League title this season.  But those dreams have been crushed since the Bulldogs lost two of their best players to season-ending injury.  Makai Mason (16.0 ppg, in 2015-16) missed all of last season with a foot injury, and that injury didn’t heal so he will miss this season too.  Jordan Bruner (8.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55 blocks last year) has also been lost for the season with a knee injury. 

The Bonnies have been mighty impressive of late, going 6-1 in their last seven games.  They beat Maryland on a neutral court, won three true road games all by 8 points or more against Siena, Buffalo and Canisius, and lost to TCU by 10 as 8.5-point dogs on a neutral.  TCU is still unbeaten as of this writing. 

Yale has been blown out on a the regular when it has taken a step up in class during its 6-5 start this season.  The Bulldogs lost by 16 at Creighton, by 28 at Wisconsin, by 8 at Albany and by 26 at TCU.  They also lost at home to Vermont by 6.  This team isn’t capable of hanging with a team the caliber of St. Bonaventure, which is an NCAA Tournament team in my eyes. 

Yale is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS versus very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points pre game over the last three years.  The Bonnies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Ivy League opponents.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Saturday.

20* Oklahoma/USC ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +2.5 

Wrong team favored here.  The USC Trojans are absolutely loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 26-10 last year.  They have their top eight scorers back and Bennie Boatwright, Chimezie Metu and Elijah Stewart all withdrew their names from the NBA draft to stay in school. 

I think the fact that USC has already lost two games has them undervalued right now at just 4-2 on the season.  But those losses came to two really good teams in Texas A&M and SMU.  Oklahoma isn’t as good as either of those two teams. 

I think the Sooners are overvalued due to their 6-1 start.  But they haven’t beat anyone as good as USC, and this is a team that went just 10-20 last season.  They do have freshman sensation Trae Young, who is averaging 28.7 points per game this season.  But he is simply asked to do too much, and I don’t trust a guy that consistently shoots 35-foot 3-pointers as part of the offense. 

Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 0-6 ATS when playing on Friday over the last three years.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 non-conference games.  The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with USC Friday. 

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa +7.5 

The Iowa State Cyclones have no business being favored this heavily over arch rival Iowa tonight.  This is a Cyclones team that only brought back one starter and lost basically everyone from last season.  They are starting from the ground-up. 

It’s only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes get back to playing well after going 19-15 last year.  They were expected to be much better with four returning starters, but their 4-5 start leaves a lot to be desired.  Granted, the schedule has not been easy. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes have already had to face VA Tech, Penn State and Indiana in their last three games, which resulted in three losses.  I think this rough start has them undervalued.   

Conversely, the Cyclones are overvalued after winning five straight.  But this is a team that lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 18 at home as 13.5-point favorites prior to this streak against mostly weak competition. 

Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2 

The Vanderbilt Commodores will be hungry for a win tonight.  They have opened 3-5 against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to the likes of USC, Virginia, Seton Hall, Kansas State and Belmont.  They also haven’t covered a single spread this season, which has them undervalued. 

But it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense they would be struggling like this because they brought back three starters and three double-digit scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance.  This is a team that made the NCAA Tournament in Bryce Drew’s first season last year, a feat that had never been accomplished previously in Vanderbilt history. 

I think the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders get a lot of respect because they made the NCAA Tournament the past two years and made some noise.  But they loss two of their core players from those two teams in JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg last year) and Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  They aren’t nearly as strong as the last two versions. 

Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings between these teams.  Roll with Vanderbilt Wednesday. 

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake +10 

After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season.

Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season.  Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring.  Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch.

Drake is off to a 4-3 start this season despite playing a rough schedule.  They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their three losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado, a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha and an 89-96 road loss at Wyoming in overtime as 10.5-point dogs.  They are more than capable of staying within 10 points of South Dakota here Wednesday.

I think South Dakota is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just played a dream game at Duke last time out and showed well, losing 80-96 as 23-point underdogs.  Now they will have a hard time getting back up emotionally to face Drake.  I think they’ll be flat most the game and will be lucky to squeak out a win, let alone win by double-digits.

Drake is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Drake is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4 or more boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Drake Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +23 

The Xavier Musketeers are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Kent State.  They are coming off a huge 89-76 home win over their biggest rivals in the Cincinnati Bearcats.  That game is a war every year, and they certainly won’t be nearly as excited to play Kent State tonight. 

I also think the Musketeers are way overvalued right now due to going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games of the season.  The betting public has caught on to this ranked team, and you won’t be getting many bargains with them in the near future. 

The Kent State Golden Flashes are expected to compete for a MAC title this season.  They went 22-14 last year and returned three starters from that team, including Jaylin Walker (15.8 ppg).  They also return four key reserves and have a ton of experience coming back.  They are off to a 5-3 start this season. 

Xavier is 0-6 ATS off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last two seasons.  Kent State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. MAC foes.  Take Kent State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -3.5 

It hasn’t taken Jamie Dixon long to turn around TCU’s program.  He made an immediate impact at his alma mater last year as the Frogs went 24-15, won more than 20 games for the first time since 2004-05, and won the NIT title.  Now they have all five starters back and are expected to contend for one of the top spots in the Big 12 this season. 

The Horned Frogs are off to a promising 8-0 start.  Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits.  Now they’ll be anxious to avenge a 74-59 loss at SMU as 3-point underdogs last season.  Now they are only 3.5-point home favorites in the rematch. 

TCU should be a bigger favorite considering all that SMU lost in the offseason.  The Mustangs lost three double-digit scorers in Semi Ojeleye (19.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Sterling Brown (13.4 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Ben Moore (11.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg). Ojeleye was a first-round pick of the Boston Celtics. 

SMU is 7-2 this season, but the losses are certainly concerning.  They’ve already lost to both Western Kentucky and Northern Iowa on a neutral court.  Now this is the best team they have faced yet in TCU.  The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Horned Frogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home meetings with SMU.  Take TCU Tuesday. 

15* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are showing great value as only 1.5-point home favorites against the Michigan Wolverines in this Big Ten matchup Monday.  I think this is a Buckeyes team on the rise under former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann. 

The Buckeyes are off to a 6-3 start against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to Gonzaga, Butler and Clemson, and wins over Stanford and Wisconsin.  The 83-58 win as 7.5-point dogs at Wisconsin was mighty impressive on Saturday and shows just how undervalued this team is right now. 

Michigan has played a much softer schedule to this point and is 7-2.  The Wolverines lost a lot from last year’s team that won the Big Ten Tournament and made a run in the NCAA Tournament.  They only beat Central Michigan by 7 at home, lost to one of the worst teams in the SEC in LSU, and were blown out by 15 at UNC. 

Ohio State has won 14 of its last 17 home meetings with Michigan.  Michigan is 5-14 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 12-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days.  Ohio State is 9-1 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Ohio State Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1 

Bryce Drew became the first head coach in Vanderbilt history to make the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament in his first season last year.  He returned three starters from that team and three double-digits scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, (13.9 ppg), Jeff Roberson (10.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Riley LaChance (10.5 ppg, 48.6% 3-pointers). 

I think the Commodores are being way undervalued right now due to starting 3-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have played a brutal schedule with their four losses coming to Belmont, USC, Virginia and Seton Hall.  They are clearly battle-tested and ready to take down Kansas State. 

Conversely, Kansas State is being overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  But the schedule couldn’t have been much easier as the six wins came against American, Missouri-KC, UC-Irvine, Northern Arizona, George Washington and Oral Roberts.  They lost to the best team they played in Arizona State.  And now the Wildcats will be playing their first true road game of the season, which is always difficult. 

Drew is 10-1 ATS as a home dog or PK in all games he has coached.  This line opened Kansas State -2 and has been bet to Vanderbilt -1 at this point, a full 3-point move.  I think this move is warranted and the wrong team opened the favorite.  The Commodores pick up a home win and cover here today.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +10.5 

After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season. 

Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season.  Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring.  Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch. 

Drake is off to a 4-2 start this season despite playing a rough schedule.  They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their two losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado and a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha.  They are more than capable of staying within 10.5 points of Wyoming here Saturday. 

The Wyoming Cowboys are 5-2 this season.  They have lost their two step up games to Cincinnati (53-78) and at Denver (78-88).  Their 83-70 win over New Mexico Highlands in between those two losses leaves a lot to be desired.  I just see no way these Cowboys should be favored by double-digits against this improving Drake squad. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Drake) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in December games are 263-177 (59.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a. Winning % above .600.  Bet Drake Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2 

Buzz Williams has his best team yet in his fourth season at Virginia Tech.  The Hokies returned four starters from last season, including three who averaged 9.2 points per game or more. 

The Hokies are off to a 6-1 start this season with all six since coming by 24 or more points, including impressive wins over Washington (103-79) and Iowa (79-55).  The Hokies simply have to be bigger favorites today against Ole Miss. 

The Ole Miss Rebels are clearly not as strong as the Hokies this season.  They already have losses to Utah and South Dakota State (at home), and they have narrow home wins over Eastern Kentucky 85-75 as 17.5-point favorites and Georgia State 77-72 as 11-point favorites.  They aren’t nearly in the same class as Virginia Tech. 

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in home games after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Virginia Tech is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Hokies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Virginia Tech Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Seton Hall CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Seton Hall -1.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are absolutely loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They returned each of their top four scorers and four guys who scored in double-digits last year, including three players who scored at least 15.2 points per game. 

The Pirates are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point to Rhode Island in a game that the Rams simply won due to getting hot from the 3-point line.  They beat Indiana by 16 and Vanderbilt by 13 this season and are legitimately one of the best teams in the Big East this season, if not in the entire country. 

I think Texas Tech is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here due to its 6-0 start.  But the schedule has been extremely soft with home wins over South Alabama, Maine, Wofford and Savannah State, and neutral court wins against Boston College and Northwestern.  This is a big step up in class here for the Red Raiders and I don’t expect them to handle it well. 

Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off three straight wins by 15 points or more.  The Red Raiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games.  Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 neutral site games.  The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big East opponents.  Roll with Seton Hall Thursday. 

15* Miami/Minnesota ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

Richard Pitino has a real contender here in Minnesota.  This is his best team yet with five returning starters from last year.  They have certainly looked the part of Big Ten contenders up to this point. 

The Gophers have opened 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS.  Six of their seven wins have come by 12 points or more, with the lone exception being an 89-84 win over a very solid Alabama team as 4.5-point favorites.  They won at Providence 86-74 as 2.5-point dogs. 

The Miami Hurricanes are also 5-0 this season, but their schedule has been so soft that they have only had one lined game.  Their five wins have come against Gardner Webb, Navy, Florida A&M, LaSalle and North Florida.  This will be their first true road game of the season. 

Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 18-8 ATS as a favorite over the last two years.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 7-plus per game over the last three seasons.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +7.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders are way overvalued right now due to their 7-0 start against an extremely soft schedule.  This is a team that returned only one starter from last year and lost their two best players in Alec Peters (23.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and Shane Hammink (15.1 ppg).

Utah State will be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season.  The Aggies brought back four starters from last year in Koby McEwen (14.9 ppg), Sam Merrill (9.4 ppg), Alexis Dargenton (4.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 34 blocks) and Norbert Janicek (6.7 ppg, 58% FG's).

Utah State is 4-3, but the three losses were all competitive in true road games against Weber State (59-65), Gonzaga (66-79) and Portland State (79-83).  Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, and Portland State has looked amazing against elite competition and will probably win their conference.

The Aggies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. Missouri Valley opponents.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Utah State Tuesday.

15* UNC/Michigan State ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1

The Michigan State Spartans are absolutely loaded this season.  They have opened 4-1 with their only loss coming to Duke 88-81, which is perhaps the only team that is better than them in the entire country this season.  They are battle-tested and ready to win the PK 80 Invitational with a win over UNC in the Championship Game.

The UNC Tar Heels only returned two starters this season compared to four for the Spartans.  UNC hasn't played a very difficult schedule at all during its 5-0 start with wins over Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Stanford, Portland and Arkansas.  They will be taking a big step up in class here against the Spartans.

Roy Williams is 4-12 ATS as a neutral court underdog as the coach of UNC.  The Tar Heels are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* Alabama/Minnesota Top 25 No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5

Richard Pitino has his best team yet in his sixth season at Minnesota.  The Gophers returned all five starters from a young squad last year, and their chemistry has been sensational to start the season.

Indeed, the Gophers are 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.  They have won all six games by 12 points or more, including an impressive 86-74 road win at Providence as 2.5-point dogs, and a 69-51 win over UMass as 14.5-point favorites to kick off this tournament yesterday.

Alabama has some talent with four returning starters.  But they are without one of those starters in Braxton Key (12.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) due to a knee injury.  Key led the team in scoring and minutes played last season.

The Crimson Tide are also unbeaten at 5-0, but their undefeated start has been far less impressive than that of Minnesota.  They only beat Texas-Arlington 77-76 as 11-point home favorites.

Alabama is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 off five or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 17-8 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the past three seasons.  The Gophers are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last three years.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -6

Season after season, the Virginia Cavaliers are underrated.  That has been the case thus far in 2017 as well despite the fact that they returned three starters and a ton of talent.  Tony Bennett does a tremendous job with this team as they are consistently a Top 10 defensive team in the land.

Virginia has opened 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS through its first five games.  It went on the road and beat VCU 76-67 as 6.5-point favorites, thumped Monmouth 73-53 as 18.5-point home favorites and crushed Vanderbilt 68-42 as 6-point favorites in its last three games.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, giving up just 51.8 points per game on 34.5% shooting on the season.

Rhode Island is getting too much respect from the books off its 75-74 upset win over Seton Hall yesterday.  The Rams are still without their best player in E.C. Matthews due to injury.  They went 9-of-17 from 3-point range against Seton Hall, which was the difference.  Don't expect them to shoot nearly as well against Bennett's defense today.

The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Virginia Friday.

15* Texas/Duke CBB Friday No-Brainer on Duke -6.5

The Duke Blue Devils are the best team in college basketball, and it's not really even close.  They have opened 6-0 with an 88-81 win over a very good Michigan State team along the way.  I think the fact that they didn't cover as 24.5-point favorites in a 99-81 win over an underrated Portland State team yesterday is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Conversely, Texas is getting too much respect from the books off a 61-48 win as 3-point favorites over Butler yesterday.  But Butler is way down this season and lost its head coach to Ohio State, along with several key players from last year's team.  Texas really doesn't have a good win yet as the other three victories all came at home against Northwestern State, New Hampshire and Lipscomb.  This will be a big step up in class for them.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Duke Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seton Hall -4

The Seton Hall Pirates are loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They have four double-digit scorers back in Khadeen Carrington (17.1 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Angel Delgado (15.2 ppg, 13.1 rpg) and Myles owell (10.7 ppg).  They led the Big East in rebounding margin and were 13th nationally.

The Pirates have opened 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  They are taking care of business and should continue doing so here against Rhode Island, which is 2-1 with an 81-88 road loss to Nevada already.

The Rams were 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, but they lost two key pieces from that team in Hassan Martin (13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Kuran Iverson (9.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg).  They were supposed to have three starters back, including leading scorer E.C. Matthews (14.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg), but Matthews is currently sidelined with a knee injury.  That leaves the Rams short-handed and far less talented than Seton Hall.

Plays on a favorite (SETON HALL) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.  Bet Seton Hall Thursday.

15* Arkansas/Oklahoma CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are flying under the radar early in the season.  That's because they went 11-20 last season in what was clearly a rebuilding year.  But now with four starters back and one of the best head coaches in the country in Lon Kruger, the Sooners are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.

The Sooners have opened 2-0 and are hitting on all cylinders offensively, scoring 108 points in each of those two wins.  Now they have had over a week to prepare for Arkansas and this PK 80 Invitational in Oregon having last played on November 15th.  They'll be ready to go.

Conversely, Arkansas is going to take a big step back after a 26-10 season last year.  The Razorbacks lose their two best players in Dusty Hannahs (14.4 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (12.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  They do return two key players in Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon, but they aren't nearly as talented as last year.  They are without one returning starter in Dustin Thomas due to a suspension.  They are also without key bench player Arlando Cook due to suspension, leaving them lacking depth.

Plays on a favorite (OKLAHOMA) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Mike Anderson is 14-27 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Arkansas.  The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Razorbacks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. Big 12 opponents.  Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. SEC foes.  Take Oklahoma Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -5

Steve Wojciechowski is doing a fine job at Marquette in turning the Golden Eagles into a competitive Big East team year in and year out.  They went 19-13 last season and have one of the best shooting backcourts in the country from the 3-point line, led by Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey.

The Golden Eagles are just 2-2 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule.  Their two losses came to two of the top teams in the country in Purdue and Wichita State, and they were competitive in both games.  Now playing LSU will be a cakewalk compared to what they have played thus far.

LSU may be one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They opened 3-0 against a soft schedule, but then reality set in with a 53-92 loss to Notre Dame last night.  I think they get their doors blown off again as this is a clear rebuilding year for Will Wade and company.  Plus, the Tigers lost one of their best players in Brandon Sampson (10.0 ppg) to injury against Notre Dame and he's doubtful to play tonight.

LSU is 2-11 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the past two seasons.  Marquette is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 November road games.  The Tigers are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -5.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference this season.  They returned three starters in Jaron Hopkins (13.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.2 spg last year), Jahmel Taylor (10.5 ppg, 45% 3-pointers) and Bryson Williams (7.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg), along with top reserve Deshon Taylor (12.5 ppg).   They added Pacific graduate transfer (13.4 ppg) and will have a potent starting five.

The Bulldogs have opened 2-1, blowing out their first two opponents at home before facing a tough test against SEC foe Arkansas on the road.  They lost that game 75-83, but covered as 13-point underdogs in an impressive showing.  The four returnees are having big seasons already in D. Taylor (17.7 ppg), Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg), J. Taylor (14.3 ppg) and Hopkins (13.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.0 apg).  Bowles (7.3 ppg) is still finding his way with his new team.

Evansville was picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Missouri Valley coming into the season.  It's easy to see why considering they lost three starters, including leading scorer Jaylon Brown (20.9 ppg).  This is a team that went 16-17 last year, including 6-12 in MVC play.  With only two starters back, they will struggle again.

However, I think the Purple Aces are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers and the betting public due to their 4-0 start.  But the four wins all came at home against Arkansas State, NC Central, SE Missouri State and Binghamton.  Those are four awful opponents, and they didn't beat any of them by more than 16 points.  This is a huge step up in class here for the Purple Aces having to face Fresno State.

Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the past two seasons.  Fresno State is 14-3 ATS off an ATS win over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Fresno State is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Fresno State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -3

The UCLA Bruins are in a world of hurt right now with all of their suspensions.  They have three key players suspended in LiAngelo Ball, Jalen Hill and Cody Riley.  

Being this short-handed nearly cost them as they needed overtime to beat lowly Central Arkansas 106-101 despite being 27.5-point favorites.  They are 0-3 ATS, only beating GA Tech 63-60 as 9.5-point favorites and South Carolina State 96-68 as 36-point favorites.

Creighton has reloaded nicely this season.  Marcus Foster (19.3 PPG) and Khyri Thomas (17.7 ppg) are playing out of their minds thus far in leading the Bluejays to a 3-0 start, which includes an impressive 92-88 road win over ranked Northwestern as 5.5-point dogs.

UCLA IS 1-8 ATS against good offensive teams coring 84 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Creighton Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State +2

I have been fading the Iowa State Cyclones regularly the early going because they lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer was Donavan Jackson (6.4 ppg). It has paid off so far as the Cyclones are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS.  

I won against them taking Missouri and Appalachian State and am upset I didn’t fade them against Milwaukee and Tulsa.  I won’t make that mistake again today. Now Iowa State plays a Boise State team that is the second-best squad they have faced this year outside Missouri.  

The Broncos returned three starters from last year and are a veteran bunch.  They have opened 4-0 with some quality wins over UTEP and Illinois State in the first two games of this tournament. 

Boise State is 8-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 off an upset win by 10 points or more as a dog.  The wrong team is favored in this game today folks.  Take Boise State Sunday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +22

The Kansas Jayhawks are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 65-61 win over Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday.  There's no way they''ll be able to get up for South Dakota State tonight after just playing for Kentucky.

South Dakota State (3-0) is coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago, advancing as the champion of the Summit League Tournament before falling to eventual runner-up Gonzaga.

The Jackrabbits, favorites to claim the Summit League title, are coming off a 94-63 rout of Alabama State on Tuesday. They have outscored opponents by 22 points on average, with 13.0 3-point goals made and 44.8 percent shooting from that range.

"I was really happy with how our guys shared the ball once we got into a rhythm offensively," South Dakota State coach T.J. Otzelberger said after the Jackrabbits had 23 assists against Alabama State. "Our guys are really sharing it. Obviously when you make a lot of 3-point shots that's going to happen, but I thought a lot of the guys gave great contributions."

Forward Mike Daum was the preseason player of the year in the Summit League and averages team-highs of 21.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 3.0 steals. The 6-9 junior has two double-doubles.

Kansas is 0-6 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Jack Rabbits are 20-5 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past three seasons.  Roll with South Dakota State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -24

I think Arizona is actually showing value as 'only' 24-point favorites tonight because of the fact that they have opened 0-2 ATS this season.  But both losses came by a half-point as they beat Northern Arizona 101-67 as 34.5-point favorites in a 34-point win, and htey beat MD-Balt County 103-78 as 25.5-point favorites in a 25-point win.

CS Bakersfield won't be able to hang with them today.  This is a Bakersfield team that was good last season, but won't be this season due to all they lost.  They lost their best three players in Jaylin Airington (14.3 ppg), Dedrick Basile (12.6 ppg) and Matt Smith (10.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Their only two returning starters are Brent Wrapp (4.7 ppg) and Shon Briggs (7.4 ppg).

Head coach Rod Barnes didn't bring in any junior college reinforcements as he usually does, instead electing to go young with five freshmen.  There will be early-season struggles, and there already has been.  After beating Whittier 88-66, Bakersfield went on the road and lost 53-77 to a bad Georgia Southern team.  If Georgia Southern can beat them by 24, Arizona should have no problem winning by more than that margin tonight.

Plays against a road team (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sean Miller is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team made 60% of their shots or better in all games he has coached.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +10.5

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

I backed Missouri against Iowa State in the opener, and the Tigers delivered with a 74-59 victory as 6-point favorites.  But I didn't fade Iowa State in its next game because it was up against a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that had just gone 11-24 the previous season.  That was a mistake.  Iowa State lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites 56-74, failing to cover the spread by a whopping 31.5 points.

Now the Cyclones are being asked to lay 10.5 points on a neutral court against Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have been impressive, winning their two games against overmatched opponents by finals of 135-34 and 93-57.  App State returns three starters from last year in Ronshad Shabazz (16.7 ppg, 66 3-pointers), Griffin Kinney (9.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Tyrell Johnson (7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  Plus, sophomore Isaac Johnson (6.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is a double-double waiting to happen and should take a big leap forward after a solid freshman season.

All four guys have made significant contributions early in the season.  Shabazz (24.5 ppg), Johnson (17.0 ppg), Kinney (9.5 ppg) and Johnson (5.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) have played well.  And two newcomers in O'Showen Williams (10.5 ppg) and Justin Forest (9.5 ppg) have contributed as well.  The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  They cannot be laying double digits here with how awful they have played.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -4.5

The Northwestern Wildcats went 24-12 last season and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history.  Not only did they win a game in the tournament, they took eventual national runner-up Gonzaga to the wire in the second round.

Now the Wildcats return four starters from that team.  They are G Bryant McIntosh (14.8 ppg, 5.2 apg), G/F Scottie Lindsey (14.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Vic Law (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and C Derek Pardon (8.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg).  This team is loaded and ready to get back to the Big Dance under Chris Collins.

Creighton also made the NCAA Tournament last year, but only brings back two starters in Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas, who have accounted for nearly 40 percent of the Bluejays' scoring through their first two games in wins over Yale and Alcorn State.  The Bluejays lost four key players from last year's team, including Big East Rookie of the Year Justin Patton, who was drafted 16th overall by the Chicago Bulls.

Plays against a road team (CREIGHTON) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game, after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - good defensive team from last season that held opponents to 42% or less shooting, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1997.

The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  After two lackluster performances to start the season in wins but not covers, I think we are now getting a discount on the Wildcats as only 4.5-point favorites tonight.  They will be focused and ready to go with Creighton coming to town.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are the better team here over the Kentucky Wildcats.  They have three guys with significant experience, while the Wildcats are starting five freshmen and playing eight freshmen in their rotation.

Kansas returns senior G Devonte Graham (13.4 ppg, 4.1 apg), talented shooter Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (9.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg) and G Lagerald Vick (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg).  C Udoka Aubuike (5.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) is back after being limited to 11 games as a freshman.

Kansas routed Tennessee State 92-56 in its opener.  Graham nearly had a triple-double with 10 points, seven rebounds and 12 assissts.  Freshman Marcus Garrett, the Gatorade Texas Player of the Year who nearly averaged a triple-double his senior season, finished with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

Vick was the leading scorer with 23 points.  Mykhailiuk added 15 points, Azubuike had 13 and sophomore Malik Newman added 12 points.  Newman is a former No. 2 overall recruit who transferred in from Mississippi State and had to sit out last year.

Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point favorites in its opener.  That's the same Utah Valley team that lost by 30 at Duke.  I had Vermont +13.5 against Kentucky on Sunday and watched most of that game.  Vermont nearly pulled the upset, losing 73-69.  It's clear that the Wildcats have some issues, especially shooting the ball and perimeter defense.  They are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers per game on 12 attempts per game.

I like the fact that Kansas has had three days off to get ready for Kentucky, while Kentucky has only one day to get ready for Kansas after playing on Sunday.  The Jayhawks have had the Wildcats' numbers, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings over the past two seasons.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle PK

The La Salle Explorers return a ton of talent from a team that went 15-15 last season, including 9-9 in A-10 play.  On the perimeter, the Explorers have a pair of guards in B.J. Johnson (17.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg last year) and Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg) who have the skills to play in the NBA some day.

Pennsylvania is getting too much respect here due to returning four starters, but this is a team that went just 13-15 a year ago and is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Ivy League.  They will be decent this season, but they have to win this game to cover the spread, and I don't think they can.

Penn opened with a 72-80 road loss at Fairfield despite being 3.5-point favorites.  La Salle crushed St Peters 61-40 at home, easily covering as 9.5-point favorites.  Defense was a problem for the Explorers last season, but after one game I like what I've seen in holding St. Peters to 40 points and 30.6% shooting while forcing 17 turnovers.

Pennsylvania is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  John Giannini is 14-2 ATS after a combined score of 110 points or less as the coach of La Salle.  Roll with La Salle Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vermont +13.5

This is the worst team the Kentucky Wildcats have had in some time.  It's telling that they're not ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season because they are in the Top 10 basically every year under John Calipari.

The Wildcats lost all five starters.  Their leading returning scorer is Wenyen Gabriel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg), who only played 8.4 minutes per game last year.  Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point home favorites in their opener on Friday.  That result will be a sign of things to come for this team as they started five freshmen in that game.

Now Kentucky takes a big step up in class against a feisty Vermont team that went 29-6 last season and gave Purdue all it could handle in an 80-70 loss in the NCAA Tournament.  The Catamounts now return four starters from that team and each of their top four scorers.

Back is American East Player of the Year Trae-Bell Haynes (11.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.9 apg) at point guard.  Also back is Rookie of the Year Anthony Lamb (12.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 43 blocks), F Payton Hensen (11.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and G Ernie Duncan (8.7 ppg, 40% 3-pointers).  Quinnipiac transfer Sam Dingba becomes eligible this season.

"I think the combination of our experience and the fact that we played three exhibition games, I feel like we're as prepared as we've been heading into the early season here," head coach John Becker said. This roster is loaded from a team that won 29 games a year ago and fully capable of giving the Wildcats a run for their money today.  Take Vermont Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +9

The DePaul Blue Demons will be opening their brand new $173 million Wintrust Arena in Chicago.  They want to prove that this is a basketball program on the rise, and they want to end a nine-game losing streak to Notre Dame in their 105th head-to-head meeting.

"We all obviously want to perform well," DePaul junior guard Eli Cain said in the Chicago Sun-Times. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real. It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal."

Cain (15.6 ppg, 42% 3-pointers last year) is one of four returning starters for the Blue Demons.  Also back is Brandon Cyrus (6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Tre'Darius McCallum (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Joe Hanel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  They add in three nice transfers led by sophomore guard Austin Grandstaff, who was previously at Ohio State and Oklahoma. 

Max Strus was a Division II All-American guard at Lewis University and scored 52 points in one game last year on 12-of-14 3-point shooting.  6-11 senior center Marin Maric averaged 14.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg at Northern Illinoi last season.  The future is very bright in Chicago for the Blue Demons, and they should be one of the most improved teams in the country after going just 9-23 last year.

Notre Dame comes in a bit overvalued as the No. 14 ranked team in the country.  They bring back Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell, who were two key pieces on a 26-10 team last year.  But they also lose two key players in VJ Beachum (14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and Steve Vasturia (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).  I expect them to take a step back this season.

I think asking the Fighting Irish to go on the road in their opener and win by double-digits to beat us against a vastly improved DePaul team busting out their new arena is asking too much.  Take DePaul Saturday.

20* 2017 College Hoops Season Opener on Missouri -4

This is the perfect storm.  I want to fade Iowa State because of all they lost in the offseason, and I want to back Missouri because of all they bring back and gained in the offseason.  Iowa State is a clear 'sell' team, while Missouri is a clear 'buy' team.

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

Missouri is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers return four starters in Terrence Phillips (10.4 ppg, 4.4 apg), Jordan Geist (7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg), Jordan Barnett (12.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Kevin Puryear (11.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  They have a ton or returning experience, but it's the newcomers they have that has me excited about this team.

Nine days after Missouri hired Martin, the top prospect in the 2017 class, Michael Porter Jr., pledged to the Tigers.  Porter's father, Michael Sr., is on Martin's staff.  Guard Blake Harris signed with Missouri the next day, and former Illinois commit Jeremiah Tilman, a four-star prospect, was inked a month later.  In August, Jontay Porter made it official and reclassified to 2017 to join his brother and gave the Tigers another big man and five-start prospect to add to the mix.  Those four joined Texas guard C.J. Roberts and Canisius graduate transfer Kassius Robertson as Missouri's influx of talent.

This is a pretty cheap price to lay for Missouri with all of this talent in their home opener against a rebuilding team in Iowa State.  You won't find this kind of value on them as the season moves along and the betting public realizes how good this team is.  But because they went 8-24 last year, they are flying under the radar.  Bet Missouri Friday.

20* UNC/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on UNC -1

The UNC Tar Heels suffered the agony of losing on a buzzer-beater in last year's championship game against Villanova. They've been on a mission all season to get that sour taste out of their mouths, and now they have a chance to do just that by beating Gonzaga Monday.

The Bulldogs have had a huge size advantage against everyone they have faced this season.  But that won't be the case against UNC, which is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 43% of their own misses on the season.  They have done so behind the duo of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.

The X-factor for the Tar Heels' is Theo Pinson, who has missed 19 games this season due to injury, but has gotten healthy and come up huge in the NCAA Tournament.  He is their best perimeter defender, and he will harass Nigel Williams-Goss and whoever he is matched up against in this game.  He just makes so many huge plays that don't always show up in the box score, including game-winning plays against both Kentucky and Oregon.

UNC has faced the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game.  Gonzaga couldn't have had a much easier path with games against South Dakota State, Northwestern, WVU, Xavier and South Carolina.  I think the fact that the Tar Heels are more battle-tested and that they were just here last year will be a huge advantage.  You can't simulate their championship game experience.

Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 21-8-3 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament.  They are still getting no love from oddsmakers here as 7-point underdogs in the Final Four, and that's precisely the way that Frank Martin and company like it.

The Gamecocks have pulled four straight 'upsets' to get here in beating Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida.  But really, these games weren't even all that close as all four wins came by 7 points or more, including two by exactly 20 points.  The Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone right now.

This is a team that I love to back because they get after it defensively better than anyone in college basketball.  Nothing comes easy against them, and offensively, they have found their stride in the tournament, averaging 82.0 points per game. They have the best player in the tournament to bail them out in Sindarius Thornwell, who is averaging 25.8 points in the big dance while scoring at least 24 points in every game.

The Gamecocks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 neutral site games.  I think Gonzaga is being overvalued here due to its blowout win over Xavier in the Elite 8.  But the Musketeers didn't belong in the Elite 8 and were the worst team left in the field.  The only real team that Gonzaga has faced is West Virginia, and it was fortunate to escape with a 3-point victory.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/TCU NIT No-Brainer on TCU -4

The TCU Horned Frogs are clearly on a mission to win the NIT.  And I expect them to get the job done in Jamie Dixon's first year on the job Thursday with another win and cover against Georgia Tech tonight.

I would argue that TCU has beaten three straight opponents that are all better than anyone Georgia Tech has faced in its last three games.  The Horned Frogs won at Iowa, then blew out Richmond (by 18) and UCF (by 15).  Tech's three wins have come against Belmont, Ole Miss and CS-Bakersfield.

The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.  That includes an upset win over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament.  TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet TCU Thursday.

15* CS-Bakersfield/GA Tech NIT No-Brainer on CS-Bakersfield +2.5

Bakersfield has been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point.  It has pulled off three straight outright road upsets over California (73-66) as 6.5-point dogs, Colorado State (81-63) as 4.5-point dogs and UT-Arlington (80-76) as 4-point dogs.

You could argue that all three of those teams they've already beaten are better than Georgia Tech.  Now Bakersfield finds itself in the role of the dog once again in the semifinals.  This team has been playing tremendous defense, limiting Cal to 33.3% shooting, Colorado State to 34.5% and Arlington to 35.5%.

Georgia Tech is just 3-11 in all road games this season, while Bakersfield is 13-8 away from home.  Bakersfield is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  The Roadrunners are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Roll with Bakersfield Tuesday.

20* South Carolina/Florida East Region No-Brainer on Florida -3.5

The Florida Gators have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their three games.  They beat East Tennessee State by 15, Virginia by 26 and Wisconsin by 1.  They led the Badgers by 12 late in the second half, though.

South Carolina has been the story of the NCAA Tournament, but this Cinderella story comes to an end Sunday.  I like the toughness the Gamecocks have shown, but they've beaten some overrated teams in Marquette, Duke and Baylor to get here.

Now they're up against the 3rd-best team in the country in Florida according to Kenpom.  The Gators rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 25th in offensive efficiency in his rankings.  They should be roughly an 8-point favorite over South Carolina on a neutral court, instead they're only laying 8.5 here.

Florida is 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Gators are 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Florida Sunday.

20* Oregon/Kansas Midwest Region No-Brainer on Kansas -7

The Kansas Jayhawks have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with wins by 38, 20 and 32 points.  They are simply obliterating the competition, and I expect that to continue here tonight.

The Jayhawks have certainly used location from their No. 1 seed to their advantage.  They got to play close to home in their first two games in Tulsa, and their next two games have been in Kansas City.  They have rode their home crowd edge to 100, 90 and 98 points offensively in their three games.

Oregon has been fortunate to make it this far, needing late comebacks to beat Rhode Island (75-72) and Michigan (69-68). But now the Ducks take a big step up in class here, and this is where the loss of Chris Boucher inside will finally hurt them. Look for Kansas to get whatever it wants offensively and to hang another big number on this Oregon defense.

Kansas is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams who allow 42% or less after 15-plus games this season.  The Ducks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Florida East Region BAILOUT on Florida PK

No team has been more impressive in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament than Florida.  After beating East Tennessee State as 9.5-point favorites, the Gators rolled Virginia 65-39 as 1.5-point favorites.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now.

Wisconsin is getting a lot of love right now for its upset of Villanova.  However, that was a perfect matchup for the Badgers as they took advantage of their size and the Wildcats' lack of it.  They won't have that same advantage inside over the Gators here.

Kenpom's rankings have Florida as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree.  They have Wisconsin at 21st.  According to his rankings, the Gators should be roughly 6-point favorites in this game.  I tend to agree with that as well.  This Gators team has been underrated all season.

Florida is 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Gators are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Florida Friday.

15* Xavier/Arizona West Region BAILOUT on Arizona -7.5

The Arizona Wildcats are are set up well to make the Final Four and win it all.  They have will have played close to home all tournament, and that's the case again for the next two rounds as they'll be playing in San Jose, CA.  And then the Final Four will be in Phoenix.

The Wildcats have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall, including 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six.  They have the best big man duo in the country down low, and their guards have really taken their games to the next level, especially since getting Alonzo Trier back from suspension.

Xavier has had a nice run thus far, pulling off back-to-back upsets over Maryland and Florida State.  But those two teams faded down the stretch and were two of the most inconsistent teams coming into the tournament.  Xavier meets its match today in Arizona.

Arizona is 8-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  Xavier is 1-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Musketeers simply don't have the man power to match up with Arizona's two 7-footers inside.  Take Arizona Thursday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks have a huge home-court advantage over Purdue in the Sweet 16.  This game will be played in Kansas City at the Sprint Center, the same location where they play the Big 12 Tournament every year.  It will be a pro-Jayhawk crowd to say the least.

The Jayhawks also had a decided home-court edge in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in Tulsa, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They dominated Cal Davis 100-62 as 23-point favorites, and also rolled Michigan State 90-70 as 8-point favorites.  This team is on a mission and has been as impressive as anyone thus far.

Guard play wins out in the NCAA Tournament, and Kansas has the best trio in the country in Mason, Graham and Jackson.  The Boilermakers will be at a severe disadvantage on that front as they don't have the guards that can stay with them.  Athletically, this is a huge mismatch in favor of Kansas.

The Jayhawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Bet Kansas Thursday.

15* Boise State/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Boise State +8.5

The Boise State Broncos went on the road and beat Utah outright 73-68 as 12-point underdogs in the opening round of the NIT.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs to Illinois in the second round.

The Broncos have been a great bet on the road this season, going 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS in all away games.  This is a team that only lost by 5 as 18-point road underdogs in non-conference play, too.  They will be in this game from start to finish against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad.

The Fighting Illini lost to Rutgers 59-62 in the season finale and were blown out by Michigan 55-75 in the Big Ten Tournament.  And now they're getting too much respect from the books for their 82-57 win over Valparaiso in the first round of the NIT.  That's a Valpo team that fell apart down the stretch after losing their best player in Alec Peters to a season-ending injury.

Boise State is 26-14 ATS in road games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog of 7.0-8.5 points.  Take Boise State Monday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes showed they wanted to be in the NIT with their 87-75 win over South Dakota in the opener.  The Hawkeyes shot 56.5% from the field and were led by some tremendous games from their freshmen.  Tyler Cook had 18 points and 8 rebounds, Isaiah Moss had 16 points and Jordan Bohannon has 19 points and 11 assists, all three being freshmen.

Now the Hawkeyes are up against a TCU team that had NCAA Tournament aspirations before going 3-8 in their final 11 games of the season.  Meanwhile, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Horned Frogs are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in true road games this season.  They'll be up against an Iowa team that has dominated at home, going 15-4 SU & 10-5 ATS on the season.

The Horned Frogs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  TCU is 1-10 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* Wichita State/Kentucky No-Brainer on Kentucky -4

There's no question that Wichita State will want revenge on Kentucky from a few years ago when the Wildcats handed the Shockers their first loss in the NCAA Tournament.  They were a No. 8 seed while the Shockers were a No. 1 seed, and the Wildcats actually went on to lose to UConn in the National Championship Game after the Round of 32 upset.

The difference is that Kentucky was the more talented team then, and they are clearly the more talented team again in 2017.  The Wildcats will run them out of the gym once again.  They have won 12 straight coming in and are clearly hitting their stride.

Wichita State usually has an advantage inside against every opponent it faces, but that won't be the case here.  Edrice Edebayo is one of the most dominant big men in the country, averaging 13.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.  He has only gotten better as the season has gone on and is filling his full potential down the stretch.

Wichita State benefited from an extremely easy schedule this season, but it hasn't done well when stepping up in class.  The Shockers are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games against Louisville (52-62, L), Michigan State (72-77, L), Oklahoma State (76-93, L) and Dayton (64-58, W), which are the four best teams they have faced this season.  And they were fortunate to beat Dayton Friday.

The Shockers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Shockers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  This is more of a mismatch than this 4-point spread indicates as I expect the Wildcats to dominate from the outset.  Roll with Kentucky Sunday.

20* Michigan/Louisville Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now.  Everyone was on them against Oklahoma State in the first round, and they were fortunate to win that game 92-91, but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Now I can't help but think the Wolverines are out of gas.  They played four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament, and then played one of the most entertaining, up-tempo games of the opening round with their 183-point tussle with the Cowboys.

Now the Wolverines will be up against a Louisville team that forces you to expend a ton of energy trying to beat their press.  And with only one day to prepare for the Cardinals, that won't be enough.  Derrick Walton Jr. is having a tremendous run at the PG position, but he'll be in over his head in trying to beat this Louisville press Sunday.

The Cardinals are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  Louisville is 11-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten opponents.  Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. ACC foes.  Take Louisville Sunday.

20* Iowa State/Purdue Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State ML +103

I've been backing the Iowa State Cyclones as much as any team in the country over the last several weeks, and I've had tremendous success doing so.  The Cyclones are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing as well as any team in the country.

In previous years, facing a team like Purdue with so much size would have been a problem for the Cyclones.  But that's not the case this year as they have gotten significant contributions from unsung heroes in forwards Darrell Bowie and Solomon Young inside.  These two do the dirty work, while the other guys get all the credit.

And boy do the Cyclones have some stars.  They play six seniors regularly, and I love their veteran leadership.  Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.9 rpg) is one of the best point guards in the country, Naz Mitrou-Long (15.4 ppg) is an elite shooter, Deonte Burton (14.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) can do it all both inside and outside, and Matt Thomas (12.1 ppg, 44.4% 3-pointers) is a steady leader.  The Cyclones have four guys on the court at all times who shoot 37% or better from 3-point range, which makes them perhaps the most difficult team to guard in the tournament.

The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

25* West Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are a legitimate national title contender this season.  They were the best team in the Pac-12 in the regular and postseasons, and they are clearly one of the best teams in the tournament.  Now they're only laying 5 points in the Round of 32 against St. Mary's, and I expect this to be a blowout in the Wildcats' favor.

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the tournament.  They had an extremely easy schedule outside of Gonzaga, and we saw what happened when they took a step up in class and faced the Bulldogs three times this year.  They lost by 23 at Gonzaga, by 10 at home, and by 18 in the WCC Championship.  Arizona is similar to Gonzaga in build and talent, if not better.

Arizona is 7-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  St. Mary's is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15 or more games ove r the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Seton Hall/Arkansas South Region No-Brainer on Seton Hall +1

The Seton Hall Pirates certainly know how to finish.  They won the Big East Tournament last year with an upset over Villanova that they needed just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  And this year, they were on the bubble in late-February before going 5-1 over their final six games.

The last three games have been the most impressive and show what the Pirates are capable of.  They won at Butler 70-64 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Marquette 82-76 as 1.5-point dogs in their first game of the Big East Tournament, then gave Villanova all they wanted in a 53-55 loss at 11.5-point dogs.

I think the loss to Villanova was a good thing because it showed they could play with one of the best teams in the country, but it also gave them some extra rest coming into the tournament having last played on Friday, March 10th.  And the Pirates have one of the best trios in the country in Khadeem Carrington (16.9 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Angel Delgado (15.3 ppg, 13.1 rpg) that can lead them on a run in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Arkansas improved quite a bit this season under Mike Anderson and finished strong.  They made it all the way to the SEC Championship Game.  There they were overmatched in a 65-82 loss to Kentucky.  And I think that run took a lot out of them as they had to play on Sunday, March 12th, which means the Pirates have had two more days off than them.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.  Seton Hall is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 games as a dog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Bet Seton Hall Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +12.5

The Baylor Bears peaked in late-January, but they have just been a mediocre team since.  They are just 5-6 SU & 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This is a team that has struggled in the NCAA Tournament the past few years, and they certainly aren't trending in the right direction this year, either.

New Mexico State (28-5) is a live underdog.  The Aggies only suffered five losses all season, and four of them came by 13 points or fewer.  They were competitive in non-conference road losses at Colorado State and New Mexico, two of the best teams in the Mountain West.  They won at UTEP 79-68 and at Arizona State 81-80 as well.

Baylor likes to overwhelm teams with its size, but the Aggies won't be overwhelmed here.  They have two solid big men in Eli Chuha (12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Jemerrio Jones (9.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg).  They also have two outstanding guards in Ian Baker (16.6 ppg, 4.1 apg) and Braxton Huggins (13.6 ppg, 42.2% 3-pointers).  These four can lead the upset.

Baylor is 1-8 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs WAC opponents.  Baylor is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite.  Roll with New Mexico State Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now after winning the Big Ten Tournament.  They suffered a near-death experience when their plane came to a halt on the runway before they were getting ready to take off for the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan got on a different flight and showed up just hours before their game against Illinois.  They used that near-death experience to their advantage and played their best basketball of the season, winning four games in four days.  But I think that run took a lot out of them as they played on Sunday.  And they won't be playing with that same intensity in the NCAA Tournament because they won't have much gas left in the tank.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State last played on Thursday in a loss to Iowa State.  So the Cowboys have had extra time to prepare and will be the fresher team.  They are getting overlooked now after losing each of their final three games of the season by single-digits to Iowa State (twice) and Kansas. 

But this is a team that had gone 10-1 in its previous 11 games.  And they have been the most efficient offensive team in the country since January 21st. Most think it's UCLA, but it's actually Oklahoma State.  Not to mention, according to KenPom, the Cowboys have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country this season.

Oklahoma State has won some impressive road games this season.  It won at Wichita State 93-76), at Texas Tech 83-64, at West Virginia 82-75, at TCU 71-68 and at Kansas State 80-68.  This team certainly isn't afraid to go on the road and give a big effort as they went 9-7 SU & 11-5 ATS in all road games this season.

Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.  Take Oklahoma State Friday.

20* Nevada/Iowa State Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament three of the last four years.  A few seasons ago, they were riding high and then were upset by UAB in the opening round.  This senior-laded squad with six seniors who play significant minutes remembers that defeat, and they won't fall victim to overlooking Nevada this time around.

I believe Iowa State has as good a chance to make the Final Four as any team not among the Top 3 seeds in this tournament.  I love that senior leadership, and this is a red hot team having gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The only loss came on the road at West Virginia, where nobody seems to win, and they avenged that loss with an 80-74 victory over the Mountaineers in the Big 12 Championship Game.

In previous years, being the best team in the Mountain West would have been a heck of an accomplishment.  But this conference was worse this season than any I can remember in history.  So the Wolf Pack don't deserve much credit for winning the MWC.  They lost by 18 at St. Mary's in non-conference, and they went 1-1 against Iona, which were the two teams they faced this season that will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog.  This game will be played in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so Iowa State will have a decisive home-court advantage here.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They went 22-10 this year and finished 10-8 in the toughest conference in the country in the ACC.  They went 17-11 ATS in all lined games, including 10-5 ATS in road lined games.

Buzz Williams is one of my favorite head coaches in the country because he gets the most out of his players.  And Williams has done just that at Virginia Tech, taking over a Hokies team a few years ago that was coming off three straight last-place finishes in the ACC.

Wisconsin was the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, but it has been overrated all season.  The Badgers finished 25-9 overall and didn't even win the Big Ten.  They went 6-11 ATS in all road lined games.  And the Badgers finished terribly, going 4-6 SU in their last 10 games, and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 contests.

The Badgers lost to Michigan 56-71 in the Big Ten Championship Game on Sunday.  That leaves them with less time to prepare for Virginia Tech, and they clearly won't be as fresh.  The Hokies last played on Thursday, March 9th in a hard-fought 68-74 loss to Florida State.  They have now had a full week off to get prepared.

My biggest reason for picking the Hokies here is the matchup advantage.  The Hokies led the ACC in 3-point shooting this season, and they were 9th in the country, hitting 40.3% from deep on the season.  Wisconsin ranks 306th in the country in defending the 3-pointer, allowing 37.7% from distance on the season.  I think VA Tech's small ball is a matchup nightmare this slow, lengthy Wisconsin squad.

VA Tech is 18-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UNC-Greensboro +13

Four days after Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim angered and entire city by saying there was "no value" in the ACC holding its postseason tournament in Greensboro, it was announced that UNC-Greensboro will get its shot at the Orange in the first round of the NIT Wednesday.

A church organization in Greensboro has been selling shirts that read, "Greensboro vs. Boeheim."  And there's no question that Syracuse doesn't want to be in the NIT as it was one of the first teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.  This is a team that made a run to the Final Four last year and could care less about the NIT a season later.

"When you're on the bubble, you can miss, for whatever reason," Boeheim said. "It's heartbreaking because everything today is about the NCAA tournament. It's not just us. There's 20 brokenhearted teams out there that wish they had done one thing better."

Syracuse is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Greensboro is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Orange have losses to UConn, Georgetown and St. John's out of conference this season.  Bet UNC-Greensboro Wednesday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2

The Wisconsin Badgers got a wake-up call by losing five out of six games toward the end of the regular season.  But they have been dominant since, beating Minnesota by 17, Indiana by 10 and Northwestern by 28 in their last three games.

You have to give the Michigan Wolverines a ton of credit for making the title game considering the hand they were dealt.  Their plane was delayed and they arrived just hours before the Big Ten Tournament.  All they've done is reel off three straight victories.

However, the Wolverines now have to be out of gas, period.  They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin will only be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after receiving a first-round bye.  And the Badgers didn't need to play their starters big minutes yesterday in their 28-point blowout over Northwestern.

Wisconsin has won 5 of its last 6 meetings with Michigan.  The Badgers are 7-1 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  The Badgers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

20* Iowa State/WVU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +3

The Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City is known as 'Hilton South' because of its close proximity to Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.  Cyclone fans travel extremely well to this tournament, essentially making it a home game for them.

Players cannot help but lay it all on the line with the support their get from their fans in Ames.  And they have responded by going 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine Big 12 Tournament games.

They beat Oklahoma State 92-83 on Thursday and TCU 84-63 on Friday, so they haven't even been tested and will be fresh for the Championship Game today.  Now they'll be looking for revenge on WVU after losing both regular season meetings with the Mountaineers.  They'll also be going for their 3rd Big 12 title in 4 years.

West Virginia has had a much rougher go of it so far in this tournament.  The Mountaineers failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 63-53 win over Texas, and were lucky to escape with a 51-50 victory over Kansas State as 5.5-point favorites yesterday.

Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Saturday games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond -2.5

The Richmond Spiders closed the regular season strong by going 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their final 11 games, including four straight victories to end it.  Now they've had nearly a week off to get ready for George Washington.

The same cannot be said for the Colonials, who played yesterday in a 53-46 victory over Saint Louis in their first tournament game.  Now they will be the more tired team here and won't be able to match the Spiders' intensity.

Richmond has owned George Washington this season, sweeping the season series with a 7-point road win and a 9-point home victory.  I think this is a very generous 2.5-point spread given the season sweep and the rest advantage for the Spiders.

Richmond is 6-0 ATS off a conference home win this season.  The Colonials are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite.  The Spiders are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Richmond Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -4

The Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City is known as 'Hilton South' because of its close proximity to Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.  Cyclone fans travel extremely well to this tournament, essentially making it a home game for them.

Players cannot help but lay it all on the line with the support their get from their fans in Ames.  And they have responded by going 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight Big 12 Tournament games.  They beat Oklahoma State 92-83 yesterday.

TCU is coming off its biggest win of the season, an 85-82 upset of No. 1 seed Kansas yesterday.  I think it's going to be emotionally tough to come back and play well off such a huge win.  And the Horned Frogs were aided by the fact that Josh Jackson was suspended for the Jayhawks yesterday.

The Horned Frogs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bets on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - an explosive offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more three straight games are 66-29 ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Big 12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Baylor here would probably get them in, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

I like the fact that the Big 12 Tournament is played in Kansas City, which will clearly give the Wildcats a home-court edge.  They didn't need home court when they went on the road and beat Baylor 56-54 as 7-point road dogs in their last meeting.

And the Wildcats are playing well here down the stretch, beating TCU 75-74 on the road and thumping Texas Tech 61-48 at home to close out the regular season.  Baylor has been playing mediocre basketball for weeks, going just 5-5 SU in its last 10 contests.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Kansas State Thursday.

15* VA Tech/FSU ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -6

There's no question that the 99-90 win over Wake Forest took a lot out of Virginia Tech yesterday.  The Hokies are already playing short-handed without one of their best players in Chris Clarke, who was recently out for the season with an ACL injury.

And now the Hokies won't have much left to give against a Florida State team that had a double-bye into the ACC Tournament.  I'll gladly back the fresher Seminoles here at this short price today.

FSU thumped Virginia Tech 93-78 as 9-point home favorites in their lone meeting this season.  This is a team that I believe has the talent to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, and they're going to take this ACC Tournament seriously as they try and improve their seeding.  The Seminoles are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Roll with Florida State Thursday.

15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -6

The Butler Bulldogs had yesterday off to rest up and watch their opponent today in Xavier.  The Musketeers struggled against DePaul, eventually winning 75-64 in what was a much closer game than the final score indicated.

The Musketeers are playing short-handed right now.  Only seven players played yesterday, and three of them played at least 36 minutes.  That puts them at a severe disadvantage here against a Butler team that has already beaten them 83-78 at home and 88-79 on the road.

Xavier's injuries have taken their toll down the stretch.  The Musketeers are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Their only two wins have come against DePaul (twice), while their six losses have all come by 7 points or more.

Xavier is 1-9 ATS as an underdog this season.  Butler is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bulldogs are 39-11-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  Bet Butler Thursday.

25* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals have a huge advantage over the Duke Blue Devils in rest here having not played yesterday.  Meanwhile, Duke played in a grueling 79-72 win over Clemson.  Duke is already short-handed and won't handle this back-to-back situation very well.

Making matters worse for the Blue Devils is that the Cardinals are a pressing team that force you to exert more energy than you're used to just to get the ball past the half-court line.  I think that will take its toll on this short-handed Duke team, and the end result will be a blowout in Louisville's favor.

Louisville is 9-1 ATS after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Blue Devils are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.  The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Louisville is 19-13 ATS in its last 42 neutral site games, while Duke is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site affairs.  Bet Louisville Thursday.

25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU -2.5

This is a rematch from the final game of the regular season in which Oklahoma beat TCU 73-68 at home.  Now they face each other four days later on a neutral court in the Big 12 Tournament, and I'm backing the Horned Frogs to get revenge in a big way.

The Horned Frogs are much better than their 17-14 record this season as they have been snake-bitten all year in close games.  They have lost seven straight coming in, but four of those losses have come by 5 points or less.  They have a chance to right the ship now here in this Big 12 Tournament.

Lon Kruger is 5-15 ATS in March road games as the coach of Oklahoma.  The Sooners are just 1-9 in all road games this season.  The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have quit.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing all four games by 15 points or more.  That includes their 57-83 laugher at home against Michigan in the season finale on Senior Day.

Penn State also enters the Big Ten Tournament on a 5-game losing streak, but it has at least been competitive against some quality teams.  The Nittany Lions lost by 4 to Purdue, by 10 at Minnesota, by 1 to Ohio State and by 11 at Iowa.

Penn State is 59-38 ATS in its last 97 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. losing teams.  The Nittany Lions are 12-3-1 ATS int heir last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Cornhuskers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need to win at least a couple games in this ACC Tournament to get in, and I expect them to start that mission with success tonight against Pittsburgh.

The Yellow Jackets have been undervalued all season in ACC play, and they are again lacking the respect they deserve here as underdogs.  They are 8-10 SU but 12-6 ATS in ACC action this season.  One of those was a 61-52 home victory as 1.5-point favorites over this same Pitt squad.

The Panthers are just 4-14 SU & 9-9 ATS in ACC play this season.  They didn't play with much effort down the stretch as they went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games.  They lost by 18 to UNC, by 9 to Georgia Tech and by 25 to Virginia in their final three games of the season.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* MAC Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +8.5

Central Michigan could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now heading into the MAC Tournament.  That's because the Chippewas were awful to finish the regular season, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Now the Chippewas find themselves catching a whopping 8.5 points on the road against a Kent State team that they already beat 105-98 as 6.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  I think they have the potential to pull off the upset again here tonight.

Kent State has been winning, but it hasn't been winning by margins.  In fact, each of the Golden Flashes' last eight victories have all come by 8 points or less.  They haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 8 points, making for a perfect 12-0 system going against them pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Golden Flashes are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +4

The Purdue Boilermakers have already clinched the Big Ten regular season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.  They literally have nothing to play for here Sunday, while the Northwestern Wildcats are still trying to punch their tickets to the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats will bring a lot of emotion and energy to this game Sunday.  They are trying to become the first team in program history to make the NCAA Tournament.  It's Senior Day, and Welsh-Ryan Arena will be shut down after the game for a major renovation expected to take more than a year.

Northwestern is 14-3 at home this season.  Purdue is just 5-4 in true road games.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Northwestern is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Take Northwestern Sunday.

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  They have gone 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch have come by 3 to Baylor and by 3 at Iowa State, which are two of the top teams in the conference.

Now the Cowboys want to end the regular season on a high note with a home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Senior Day.  They'll obviously be highly motivated to win this game, especially after hanging tough in an 80-87 loss at Kansas in their first meeting.

I think this is an extreme flat spot for the Jayhawks, who have already wrapped up the Big 12.  The Jayhawks were lackluster in a 73-63 home win over Oklahoma last time out as 14.5-point favorites.  They actually trailed in that game in the second half.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency today, either.

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 3-10 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -2

For whatever reason, Virginia Tech continues to lack the respect it deserves when playing at home.  The Hokies are 15-1 at home this season and now they're only laying 2 points to a mediocre Wake Forest team today.

They are only laying 2 points despite the fact that they have been underdogs in each of their last three home games, yet won all three outright over Virginia, Clemson and Miami.  Now they're up against a Wake Forest team that is just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in true road games this year.

Wake Forest is 2-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Hokies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Virginia Tech is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Iowa State/WVU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +8

The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the West Virginia Mountaineers.  This despite the fact that they are playing their best basketball of the season coming in, and at 12-5 in Big 12 play, can secure second place alone in the conference with a win here tonight.

The Cyclones are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright road wins as underdogs at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech.  Iowa State has actually won a whopping five Big 12 road games this season, which is very impressive in arguably the toughest conference in the country.

The Cyclones are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.  Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Take Iowa State Friday.

20* Cal/Utah ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Utah Utes are showing excellent value as small 1.5-point home favorites over the Cal Bears tonight.  The Utes are 12-3 at home this season, while the Bears are just 3-4 in true road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And Cal beat Utah 77-75 at home in their first meeting this season, so the Utes will be in clear revenge mode here tonight.

Utah is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern PK

The Northwestern Wildcats will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost five of their last seven to fall to 20-9 on the season and somewhat in jeopardy of missing the tournament.  Look for them to stem the tide and get a big home win tonight.

Northwestern is 13-3 at home this season.  Meanwhile, Michigan is just 2-7 in true road games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.

I think the Wolverines come in overvalued due to winning five of their last six, while the Wildcats are undervalued right now.  Plus, this is a letdown spot for Michigan off a huge win over Purdue last time out.  I don't think the Wolverines will want this one as bad as the Wildcats.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  The Wolverines are 1-8 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Wildcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Northwestern Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  This is clearly a must-win game for them tonight, and it's also Senior Night, so they'll be highly motivated for a victory over the Pitt Panthers.

The Yellow Jackets are 14-4 at home this season.  They have pulled off outright upsets over the likes of Syracuse, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina at home this year.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites over Pitt is a gift here.

The Panthers are just 4-12 in ACC play this season.  They have only won two true road games all season, going 2-6 in them.  They simply don't have a lot to play for right now and won't be playing with a sense of urgency like the Yellow Jackets will be.

Georgia Tech is a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The Panthers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 Tuesday games.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are on fire right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Kansas on the road and Baylor at home during this stretch.  This is a team that is hitting on all cylinders right now and should be bigger home favorites over Oklahoma State tonight.

The Cyclones are in second place in the Big 12 right now, so they will be highly motivated to get that No. 2 seed.  Plus, it's Senior Night Tuesday, and this is a senior-laden squad.  In fact, six seniors play significant minutes for this team in Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton, Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie.

Oklahoma State is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers due to going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  But the Cowboys haven't played Kansas during this stretch, they lost at home to Baylor, and their only real quality win came against West Virginia on the road.

Iowa State has dominated this series, winning eight straight meetings with Oklahoma State while going 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cyclones won 96-86 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cyclones are 53-20 ATS in their last 73 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Cowboys are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +1.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are the gift that keeps on giving.  They are consistently undervalued by oddsmakers, and that has really been the case down the stretch.  Now they are home dogs to the Miami Hurricanes Monday when they should be the favorites.

All the Hokies have done is go a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won four games outright with their only losses coming by 6 as 6.5-point dogs at Miami and by 4 as 13-point dogs at Louisville.  That also places the Hokies in revenge mode here after losing on the road to the Hurricanes on February 8th.

Miami is in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  The Hurricanes are coming off a huge upset home win over Duke on Saturday and clearly won't be as focused for this game now.  They will be up against a VA Tech team that is 14-1 at home this season.

Miami is 3-11 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons.  VA Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  TheHurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +2

The Butler Bulldogs are primed for a letdown here Sunday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-66 upset road win as 10-point underdogs at Villanova.  They clearly won't be up for this game against Xavier like they were against Villanova.

Conversely, Xavier will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to end a four-game losing streak.  The Musketeers have fallen victim to a brutal schedule with a home game against Villanova, and road losses to Providence, Marquette and Seton Hall during this stretch.

The Musketeers will also be out for revenge from a 78-83 road loss at Butler on January 14th in their first meeting this season.  The Musketeers were also without leading scorer Trevon Blueitt for a few games during their losing streak, but he's back healthy.  And Xavier is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Butler.

Xavier is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 12-2 at home this season.  The Musketeers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  The Bulldogs are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Xavier Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats can pretty much lock up the Pac-12 title with a victory here Saturday at home against UCLA.  They would need to win this game and their next game at lowly Arizona State to win the Pac-12.  That has been their goal all season, and with it now within reach, I look for them to capitalize on it.

Arizona already dominated UCLA 96-85 on the road as 5-point underdogs int heir first meeting this season.  They were the more physical team in that game and outrebounded the Bruins 42-33.  They will have the edge in physicality again, and this time they'll have the support of their home fans.

That's important because Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on average.  The Wildcats are coming off a 13-point home win over USC.  They are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with UCLA.

UCLA is 2-8 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent this season.  The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UCLA is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

Quietly, the Iowa State Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won road games at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech, while dominating their only two home games during this stretch in a 16-point win over Oklahoma and a 13-point win over TCU.

As most of you should know, Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside Hilton Coliseum.  And now the Cyclones will be out for revenge from their heartbreaking 63-65 loss at Baylor in their first meeting this season on a last-second shot.

Baylor is clearly ripe for the picking right now as the Bears are blowing their shot at a No. 1 overall seed.  Indeed, the Bears are 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games.  They lost at home to both Kansas and Kansas State, while also losing on the road to Texas Tech.  Even their 60-54 home win as 13-point favorites over Oklahoma last time out was lackluster.

Iowa State is a sensational 26-4 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Baylor is 1-9 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 trips to Ames, Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* Oregon State/Cal CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +18

The Cal Golden Bears blew a 16-point lead against Oregon and lost 65-68 on a buzzer-beater by Dillon Brooks.  They were up 10 with four minutes left before committing a ton of turnovers down the stretch to blow it.  I think they'll suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Now the Golden Bears will have to try and get the motivation to face the worst team in the Pac-12 in the Oregon State Beavers just two days later after losing to Oregon on Wednesday.  They beat the Beavers 69-58 as 14-point road favorites on January 21st in their first meeting, and now they're being asked to lay a whopping 18 points in the rematch.

Oregon State has been way undervalued here of late and cashing tickets for bettors willing to back them.  The Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They keep catching huge numbers and covering, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as double-digit underdogs.

The Beavers are 9-1 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (OREGON ST) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, terrible team, winning 20% or less of their games on the season are 218-137 (61.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Oregon State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -4.5

The George Washington Colonials are showing great value as only 4.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen tonight.  They have gone 5-4 in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming to the class of the Atlantic 10.

UMass is one of the worst teams in the conference at 3-11 SU & 3-11 ATS in Atlantic 10 play this season.  The Minutemen have gone 1-7 SU in their last eight games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.  I think they continue to be getting too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.

The Colonials are 10-3 at home this season, while the Minutemen are just 3-8 in true road games.  George Washington has dominated UMass in the last three meetings, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while winning by 11, 22 and 8 points, respectively.

UMass is 0-6 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Minutemen are 0-10 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Colonials.  Take George Washington Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -3.5

I really like the short price we are getting here with the Arkansas Razorbacks, who at 20-7 on the season are likely on their way to the NCAA Tournament.  They are 13-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by nearly 12 points per game on the season.

The Razorbacks are putting up 84.4 points per game on 47.6% shooting at home this year.  They'll be up against a Texas A&M team that is just 2-6 in true road games, getting outscoring by nearly 8 points per game.  One of their road wins was against lowly LSU.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The lone exception was when Arkansas went into Texas A&M and won 62-60 as 5-point underdogs on January 17th in their first meeting this season.

The Razorbacks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after a game where they made 57% or better from the field and allowed 43% or lower.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -4

Georgia Tech is right on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Yellow Jackets have gone 14-3 at home this season with signature upsets over UNC, Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame and Syracuse.  Josh Pastner is doing as good of a job as anyone in his first season at Georgia Tech.

NC State is a dumpster fire right now.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Head coach Mark Godfried has been fired, but he's been allowed to finish out the season, which is almost unheard of.  The Wolfpack are a mess right now and can't be trusted.

Georgia Tech went on the road and beat NC State 86-76 as 9.5-point dogs in the first meeting this season.  Now they're only being asked to lay 4 points at home in the rematch, which I believe is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more this season.  The Wolfpack are 2-10 ATS as underdogs this season.  NC State is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* SC/Florida ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on South Carolina +9

The Florida Gators are being overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That has shown of late as they have failed to cover two of their last three.  They only beat Texas A&M by 9 as 11-point home favorites and Mississippi State by 5 as 10.5-point road favorites.

Conversely, South Carolina comes in undervalued due to losing two straight and going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Gamecocks are still one of the top teams in the SEC despite this recent slide, and they are certainly better than this 9-point spread would indicate.  Five of their seven losses this season have come by single-digits.

South Carolina beat Florida 57-53 at home earlier this season.  Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  The Gators are also 0-11 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less over the past three years.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.