Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Colorado State -4

Colorado State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this season from a team that barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are on a mission to get to the big dance this year, and a win over St. Mary's would go a long way.

The Rams have handled their business thus far in their 8-0 start that has seen them outscore opponents by 18.1 points per game.  They beat Creighton by 14 and Oral Roberts by 29, two NCAA Tournament teams from last year.  They are coming off a 31-point win over Arkansas-Little Rock and have had the last two days off.  

St. Mary's will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days after a narrow win at Utah State, 60-58 on Thursday.  Playing in altitude here will be tough for the Gaels.  It will also be their 6th game in 13 days.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +10

SIU-Edwardsville is just 2-5 SU this season but all five losses were decided by 13 points or less and they have faced some stiff competition.  They only lost by 11 at Marquette as 21-point dogs, upset Youngstown State on the road as 5-point dogs and only lost at Creighton by 5 as 21-point dogs.

Now SIU-Edwardsville is catching 10 points against a down Bradley team that is just 3-5 this season with two wins over Missouri S&T and Maine.  They lost by 16 to South Dakota State, by 12 to Howard as 12.5-point favorites, by 3 to Brown as 3.5-point favorites and by 8 to Duquesne as 2-point dogs.  They did pull the upset over Northern Iowa in their MVC opener last time out by 2, but that makes this a letdown spot for them today.

SIU-Edwardsville is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The Braves are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Bradley is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with SIU-Edwardsville Saturday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -8

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off three straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV and Notre Dame.  But at just 2-5 ATS this season, this is a good time to 'buy low' on them tonight in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers.

Rutgers is just 4-3 SU & 1-5-1 ATS this season.  It's clearly a rebuilding year for the Scarlet Knights, who lost a lot in the offseason.  They have so many concerning results.  They lost outright as favorites to DePaul (-2.5), Lafayette (-19) and UMass (-1.5).  They struggled to beat Lehigh by 3, Merrimack by 13 and New Jersey Tech by 14.  This clearly isn't a very good team, and this will be by far their toughest test of the season after playing an easy early schedule.

Illinois is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  This one has double-digit blowout written all over it folks.  Roll with Illinois Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Youngstown State +5.5

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has no business being a 5.5-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight, let alone a favorite at all.  The Panthers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season despite playing a very easy schedule.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee opened with a win over North Dakota.  They have since lost five straight despite being favorite in three of them.  They lost by 6 to Eastern Kentucky as 5-point home favorites, by 36 to Florida as 16.5-point road dogs, by 14 to Bowling Green as 2.5-point neutral court favorites, by 13 to Yale as 7-point neutral court underdogs and by 4 to Alcorn State as 10-point home favorites.

Youngstown State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS.  They were competitive in all three losses.  They covered in a 16-point loss at Penn State as 17-point dogs.  They only lost toby 3 to SIU-Edwardsville and by 5 to Niagara, two teams that are underrated in my book.

The Penguins are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Youngstown State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Milwaukee is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Panthers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games as home favorites.  Milwaukee is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Youngstown State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Providence +3

Texas Tech is 6-0 this season and has yet to play a true road games.  The Red Raiders have played the 357th-ranked schedule in the country with their six wins coming against North Florida, Grambling, Prairie View A&M, Incarnate Word, Nebraska-Omaha and Lamar.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Red Raiders after this start against this soft schedule.  Now they will be playing their first true road games against a Providence team that is battle-tested and has gotten through the 154th-ranked schedule at 6-1.  That includes upset road wins over Wisconsin on the road and Northwestern on a neutral with their lone loss coming to Virginia on a neutral.

Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 60 points or less.  Texas Tech is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 vs. Big East opponents.  The Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  Providence is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Providence Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +7.5

Wichita State is 6-1 this season with its only loss to Arizona by 4 points as 9.5-point dogs.  That's a very good Arizona team.  They are battle-tested also having road wins over Missouri and UNLV.  And now they are catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The Cowboys are also 6-1 but getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have narrow wins over NC State by 6 and Oral Roberts by 1.  They also have an upset loss to Oakland as a 17-point favorite.  They have played a much softer schedule, too.  The Cowboys have no business laying this big of a number to the Shockers tonight.

Wichita State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  The Shockers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Wichita State is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games as an underdog.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Wichita State Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -4

Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  But they had some bad losses early when they were injured.  Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas as 12.5-point dogs.  The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season.

But Northern Iowa played up to its potential last time out, upsetting previously unbeaten and ranked St. Bonaventure 90-80 on the road as 10-point dogs.  They will be playing just their 2nd game since November 17th tonight, so they are rested, fully healthy and ready for this Missouri Valley opener against Bradley.

The Braves are way down this season.  They are just 2-5 SU & 2-4 ATS with their two wins coming against Missouri S&T and Maine.  They have losses to Howard by 12 as 12.5-point favorites, South Dakota State by 16 as 9-point dogs, Brown by 3 as 3.5-point favorites and Duquesne by 8 as 2-point dogs.  They won't be able to hang with a team the caliber of the Panthers tonight.

Bradley is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games after going under the total in its previous game.  The Braves are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +9.5

North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 4-2 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2) and Arizona.  They can hang with Creighton tonight.

This is one of the worst Creighton teams of the Greg McDermott era.  While they are 6-1 SU, they are just 2-5 ATS.  They have concerning close wins over SIU-Edwardsville by 5 as 21-point favorites, Southern Illinois by 2 as 6-point favorites, Kennesaw State by 7 as 19-point favorites and Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 13 as 34-point favorites.  North Dakota State is better than all four of those teams.

Th Bison are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games following an ATS loss.  North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a win where they failed to cover the spread.  Roll with North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* Florida State/Purdue ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +11.5

You're paying a tax to back the Purdue Boilermakers right now due to their No. 2 national ranking and their 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS record.  Now they are laying double-digits to a very good Florida State team that will give them a run for their money tonight.

Florida State is 5-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road to Florida.  That includes blowout wins over Missouri by 23 as 9.5-point favorites, Loyola-Marymount by 28 as 6.5-point favorites and Pennsylvania by 35 as 19.5-point favorites.

Purdue has four blowout wins and two close wins against the best two teams that they have faced.  They beat Villanova by 6 and North Carolina by 9, and I think the Seminoles are more than capable of keeping this a single-digit game tonight.

Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games after scoring 95 points or more.  Take Florida State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +31.5

Tarleton State has played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the entire country and has been competitive against some very good teams.  So they won't be phased by having to play Gonzaga tonight, and I look for them to stay within this massive number.

Tarleton lost by 12 at Stanford, by 26 at Kansas, by 14 at Wichita State, by 1 at North Dakota State and by 11 at Michigan.  So they haven't lost by this margin all season and have faced two of the best teams in the country in Kansas and Michigan.

This is a letdown spot for Gonzaga.  They just played UCLA and Duke in back-to-back games, and now they have another huge game on deck against Alabama.  That makes this s a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think they'll be giving Tarleton State the full attention they deserve tonight.

Gonzaga is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  The Texans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Tarleton State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Tarleton State Monday.

15* Iowa/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are overvalued right now after a 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season against an extremely soft schedule.  They have played the 355th-ranked schedule in the country with all six games at home.  Now they hit the road for the first time this season at Virginia and this is a massive step up in competition.

Virginia is 5-2 this season against a much tougher schedule.  Obviously the loss to Navy in the opener was a bad loss, but the other came against Houston on the road, and Houston is one of the best teams in the country.

The Cavaliers have since rebounded nicely with four straight blowout victories all by 10 points or more, including a 10-point win over Georgia and an upset win over Providence by 18.  They are the more battle-tested team and will be ready for a game against a team that caliber of Iowa.

Iowa is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following four straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Take Virginia Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont -2.5

The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year.  Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation.  The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team.  They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.

The Bruins are off to a 5-2 start this season against a brutal schedule.  The losses came to Ohio and LSU, and they have solid wins over Furman, Drake and Iona.  I think their depth will play a big factor here playing in the championship game of the ESPN Events Invitational playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

This is a terrible spot for Dayton.  They will have a letdown after their shocking 74-73 win as 16-point dogs against Kansas last round.  This is a Dayton team that was just 2-3 coming into that game with upset losses to UMass-Lowell 58-59 as 17.5-point favorites, Lipscomb 59-78 as 9-point favorites and Austin Peay 81-87 as 14-point favorites.  They aren't that good, and we are getting Belmont at a discount due to that Kansas upset.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after committing eight or fewer turnovers in their previous game.  The Flyers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Roll with Belmont Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Santa Clara -3.5

Herb Sendek has a very good Santa Clara team this season.  The Broncos are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season against a brutal schedule.  They beat Stanford by 16 as 3-point dogs, Nevada by 22 as 1.5-point dogs, TCU by 19 as 3.5-point dogs and Cal Poly by 30 as 14.5-point favorites.  Their lone loss came to Fresno State last time out, and I think they are undervalued off that defeat.

UC-Irvine is a solid team at 3-1 this season.  But they lost to the best team they faced in New Mexico State by 11 as 5.5-point dogs.  It was also their only road game this season.  And I don't see them hanging with this veteran, talented Santa Clara squad on the road tonight.

Irvine is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Irvine is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after covering two of its last three ATS.  The Anteaters are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Broncos are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Santa Clara Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +10

Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  But they had some bad losses early when they were injured.  Now they are fully healthy, and they played up to their potential when they had a 1-point lead with under three minutes left at Arkansas last time out as 12.5-point dogs.

The Panthers went on to lose that game by 13 in one of the worst beats of the college basketball season.  But now that works in our favor here because the Panthers are catching more points than they should be against St. Bonaventure.  They have also had a ton of time to get ready for this game and get even healthier with that Arkansas contest being their last game on November 17th.

While it's a great time to 'buy low' on Northern Iowa, it's also a great time to 'sell high' on St. Bonaventure after opening 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS.  The Bonnies just played a big tournament and beat Boise State (by 6), Clemson (by 3) and Marquette to win the title.  This is now a letdown spot for them as they return home to face 1-3 Northern Iowa.

The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. excellent defensive teams that allow 35% shooting or lower.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

LSU looks like one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 16 points or more and by an average of 34.4 points per game.  That includes wins over solid mid-major programs in Liberty by 16 as 7.5-point favorites and Belmont by 30 as 6.5-point favorites.

Penn State is in rebuilding mode.  The Nittany Lions are 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS this season.  They failed to cover at home against Youngstown State, Cornell and St. Francis-NY.  They also lost outright by 25 at UMass as 4-point favorites in their lone road game.  This is a huge step up in class for Penn State.

Plays on neutral court teams (LSU) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 76 points per game against an average defensive team allowing 67-74 points per game, after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet LSU Friday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +3

Loyola-Chicago played the early game yesterday and got the extra time to rest and sit around and watch the Auburn/UConn game to scout both teams.  That's a huge advantage.  That rest advantage is even bigger now that Auburn and UConn went to double-overtime yesterday.

Indeed, UConn beat Auburn 115-109 in double-overtime in an absolute shootout.  Five players played at least 32 minutes for the Tigers yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Ramblers today and I'm shocked they are favored.

Auburn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take Loyola-Chicago Thursday.

15* UConn/Michigan State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +2.5

Michigan State played the early game yesterday and got the extra time to rest and sit around and watch the Auburn/UConn game to scout both teams.  That's a huge advantage.  That rest advantage is even bigger now that Auburn and UConn went to double-overtime yesterday.

Indeed, UConn beat Auburn 115-109 in double-overtime in an absolute shootout.  Five players played more than 30 minutes for the Huskies, including two more than 43 minutes.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Spartans today.

UConn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* Memphis/VA Tech ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis -2.5

The Memphis Tigers are loaded this season and off to an impressive 4-0 start while winning by an average of 22.7 points per game.  Their 16-point home win over a very good Saint Louis team was very eye-opening.  And they followed it up with a 12-point win over a quality Western Kentucky team.  They have played the much tougher competition to this point.

Virginia Tech is overvalued after a 5-0 start against one of the easiest schedules in the country.  The Hokies have seen their five wins come again Maine, Navy, Radford, St. Francis-PA and Merrimack.  This is a huge step up in competition for them, and I expect them to fail.

The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Virginia Tech is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog.  Take Memphis Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -4

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

They are off to a 5-2 start this season with one loss coming to Alabama on the road.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country.  They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite, Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite and Nevada 102-75 as 2.5-point favorites cover the spread in all four games.  

They did come up short yesterday against Washington as the Huskies couldn't miss, shooting 58.3% from the field.  But I like the Jackrabbits to bounce back today and they are built for these tournament situation playing three games in three days due to their tremendous depth.  They also play at a break-neck pace, which will really test George Mason.

George Mason has now lost three straight to James Madison, Washington and then Nevada in a 88-69 blowout yesterday.  That's the same Nevada team that South Dakota State beat by 27.  George Mason is not a deep team with six players averaging 21 minutes and the next-highest at 11 minutes.  They brought back just one starter from last year's team.

The Patriots are 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  George Mason is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  South Dakota State is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  South Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.  The Jackrabbits are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet South Dakota State Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -5.5

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

They are off to a 5-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Alabama on the road.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country.  They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite, Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite and Nevada 102-75 as 2.5-point favorites cover the spread in all four games.  They are the real deal this season.

That blowout win over Nevada yesterday means the Jackrabbits will be fresh again today.  They will be taking on a rebuilding Washington team that is 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  Washington barely survived in a 77-74 win over George Mason yesterday and will be tired because of it.  The Huskies were also upset by both Wyoming and Northern Illinois as a 20-point home favorite earlier this season.  They barely beat Northern Arizona 73-62 and Texas Southern 72-65 as well.

This will be essentially be home game for the Jackrabbits being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The Jackrabbits are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past few seasons.  The Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Washington is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30

Texas Tech is overvalued after a 4-0 start against a weak schedule with wins over North Florida by 15, Grambling by 26, Prairie View A&M by 35 and Incarnate Word by 22.  The Red Raiders should not be laying 30 points to Nebraska-Omaha tonight.

Omaha has shown they can be competitive on the road against some quality teams.  They only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs, by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs and by 21 at Montana as 12.5-point dogs.  They will stay within 30 of the Red Raiders tonight.

Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following three or more consecutive wins.  The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Red Raiders are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  This is a rebuilding Texas Tech team without Chris Beard, who moved on to Texas this year.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Oregon/St. Mary's ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -1.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Oregon Ducks.  They have failed to cover the spread in their last two games, including a blowout loss to BYU in which the Cougars shot lights out at 58.6% and made about every 3-pointer they looked at.  That loss came after an 86-63 blowout win over SMU, so the quality of competition has been high for the Ducks this season already.

It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Saint Mary's.  The Gaels are 5-0 against a very soft schedule of Prairie View A&M, Texas Southern, Southern Utah, Bellarmine and Notre Dame.  They only beat Notre Dame 62-59 yesterday, and Oregon blew out Chaminade 73-49.  So the Ducks will be the fresher team in this back-to-back situation.  They are the better team as well and it will show.

The Ducks are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Gaels are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 neutral site games as an underdog.  Saint Mary's is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  Roll with Oregon Tuesday.

15* CBB Cancun Challenge ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo -4.5

Buffalo is picked to win the MAC and the MAC is one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, especially at the top.  Ohio upset Belmont, Akron nearly upset Ohio State losing by 1, Kent State gave Xavier a run for its money and Buffalo covered in a competitive effort against Michigan.

The Bulls returned four starters this season including three who averages at least 13 points per game in Jeenathan Williams (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Josh Mballa (15.3 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG).  Williams is averaging 21.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG, Mballa 12.7 PPG and 8.3 RPG and Segu 13.7 PPG and 4.3 APG to this point during their 2-1 start.

This will be the first road game of the season for Stephen F. Austin.  They are clearly rebuilding this season as evidenced from their first two games, beating LSU-Alexanderia 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63.  They lost 71-83 at home to South Dakota State as 2-point dogs, and needed a huge second half to beat Middle Tennessee 87-74.  Buffalo is on the same level as South Dakota State this season.

Buffalo is 10-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off a home win.  The Lumberjacks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Stephen F. Austin is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Take Buffalo Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Hofstra +9.5

Hofstra is one of the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Conference this season.  They returned three starters, brought in five transfers and three freshmen who will battle for playing time.  I've been impressed with how well the Pride have played in the early going against a brutal schedule.

Hofstra only lost by 8 at Houston as 18.5-point dogs, upset Duquesne by 10 as 4-point road dogs, only lost by 8 at Iona as 5.5-point dogs and lost by 2 at Maryland as 12.5-point dogs.  Taking Houston and Maryland to the wire on the road is no small feat and shows this team's potential.

Now the Pride are catching 9.5-points on the road to an overrated Richmond team.  The Spiders are just 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against NC Central by 10 as 26-point favorites and Georgia State by 16.  They lost by 11 on a neutral as 6.5-point favorites to Utah State.  They also lost on the road to Drake to sit at 2-2 this season.  Now they'll be playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back home from Des Moines, Iowa off that Drake loss.

Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. ad defensive teams that allow 45% shooting or higher.  Richmond is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 77% or better.  The Pride are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Spiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Roll with Hofstra Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -1

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

They are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Alabama on the road.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country.  They also beat Stephen F. Austin 83-71 as a 2-point favorite, Montana State 91-74 as a 10-point favorite and Bradley 81-65 as a 9-point favorite to cover the spread in all three games.  They are the real deal this season.

Few teams have been more disappointing than Nevada this season.  They returned almost everyone from last year, but they are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost outright to San Diego by 7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite.  They lost by 22 at Santa Clara as a 1.5-point favorite.  Those two results alone show how broken this team is.

This will essentially be a home game for the Jackrabbits being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota in the Crossover Classic.  The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall and have been one of the most underrated teams in the country for a couple seasons now.  Take South Dakota State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Florida State Seminoles.  After crushing Pennsylvania by 35, they were upset by Florida and had a hangover from that defeat in a 5-point win over Tulane as a 16.5-point favorite.  Look for them to play up to their potential tonight and easily cover this short 6.5-point spread against Loyola-Marymount.

It's clearly Loyola-Marymount isn't as good as they were supposed to be coming into the season.  They are 2-1 against a very soft schedule with two very concerning efforts.  They lost outright to Chattanooga 64-75 as a 7point favorite and only beat Arizona Christian 74-67 in a game with no line.  They did beat Arkansas-Little Rock 82-63, and now this is a huge step up in class for them.

Plays on neutral court teams as favorites or PK (Florida State) - off a home no-cover where they won SU as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 65-28 (69.9%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Florida State Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3.5

Boston College will be out for revenge from a 49-57 road loss to Rhode Island as 4.5-point underdogs on November 17th just a few days ago.  Now the Eagles come back as 3.5-point dogs on a neutral in the Sunshine Slam played in Daytona Beach, FL.

I just expect the Eagles to be the more motivated team in the rematch, and for that to carry them to an outright victory.  Plus, Boston College isn't going to shoot 25% again like they did in that first meeting, and they still only lost by 8 with Rhode Island shooting 44.2%.  They had 42 rebounds compared to 29 for Rhode Island and should have a big edge on the glass again.  Bet Boston College Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss PK

The Ole Miss Rebels are 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Marquette by 6.  And it's clear Marquette is actually pretty good with wins over Illinois and West Virginia already this season as well.  The Rebels have won their three games all by 18 points or more and will be one of the most improved teams in the country after COVID destroyed them last year.

Boise State lost a lot of talent from last year's team and is getting too much respect after having a good season.  The Broncos are 2-2 this season with their two wins coming against Utah Valley State and Temple.  They lost to UC-Irvine 50-58 as 2-point road favorites and St. Bonaventure 61.67 as 3.5-point dogs.

Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in its prevous game.  Take Ole Miss Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +12.5

We have an underrated Nebraska-Omaha team up against an overrated Montana team here Saturday.  Omaha should not be catching double-digits in this showdown that should come right down to the wire.

Omaha only lost by 4 at Ball State as 10.5-point dogs and by 15 at Kansas State as 17.5-point dogs in its last two games coming in.  Montana lost by 37 as 11.5-point dogs at Mississippi State and by 2 as 7-point favorites at North Dakota in its last two games.

Omaha is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points.  Montana is 0-11 ATS in it last 11 Saturday games.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The Grizzlies are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Montana is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +29.5

Tim Miles is a great head coach and one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  He's already turning San Jose State into a competent program this year.  The Spartans are 1-2 SU but 3-0 ATS with three competitive games as underdogs.

After upsetting CS-Fullerton 78-76 as 5.5-point dogs, San Jose State also covered in a 14-point road loss at Stanford as 18.5-point dogs.  They then nearly upset Cal Baptist in a 1-point loss as 11-point road dogs.  And now they are catching 29.5 points against Texas, which is too much.

Texas came into the season with a ton of hype due to the hiring of Chris Beard from Texas Tech .  But the Longhorns have fallen flat, losing by 12 to Gonzaga as 7.5-point dogs and only beating Northern Colorado by 13 as 21-point favorites in their last two games coming into this one.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after a win by 10 points or more.  The Longhorns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games following a win.  Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -13.5

The Memphis Tigers are loaded this season and a legit contender.  They just beat a very good Saint Louis team handily 90-74 as 10.5-point favorites.  And now they take a big step down in competition here against Western Kentucky and should have no problem covering this 13.5-point spread at home.

Western Kentucky lost most of their studs from lsat year.  The result has been a 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season.  The Hilltoppers barely survived in a 79-74 home win over Alabama State as a 25.5-point favorite.  That Alabama State team is now 0-5.

The Hilltoppers went on to get upset 69-73 as 3-point favorites against a rebuilding Minnesota team.  Then they lost 64-75 to South Carolina as 1-point underdogs.  That's also a rebounding South Carolina team.  This is a huge step up in competition for the Hilltoppers tonight.

The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Memphis is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Memphis Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Middle Tennessee +11

Middle Tennessee is off to an impressive 3-0 start this season.  The Blue Raiders crushed their first two opponents by 39 and 20 points.  Then they upset a very good Winthrop team 76-65 as 5.5-point underdogs.  Now they will hang with Stephen F. Austin tonight.

Stephen F. Austin is rebuilding this season.  They were not impressive at all in their first two games that didn't have lines.  They beat LSU-Alexandria by 9 and Mary Hardin-Baylor by 13.  Then they were crushed 71-83 as 2-point home underdogs to South Dakota State.  So that's three straight poor performances, and they have no business laying 11 points to the Blue Raiders tonight.

Plays on underdogs (Middle Tennessee) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, a team that had a losing record last season are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Middle Tennessee Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Alabama State +28

Alabama State is 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS against some quality competition.  They lost by 5 at Western Kentucky as 25.5-point dogs, by 19 at Vanderbilt as 25.5-point dogs, but 18 at Missouri State as 23.5-point dogs and by 8 at Iowa State as 19-point dogs.

Now Alabama State is catching a whopping 28 points to Iowa, which isn't nearly as good as they were last season.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 against some very weak competition in Longwood, Missouri-KC and NC Central.  And they only beat NC Central by 17 as 29.5-point favorites last time out.  I can't foresee them beating Alabama State by more than 28 points tonight.  Roll with Alabama State Thursday.

15* Ohio State/Xavier FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2

After two sub-par performances to open the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes played up to their potential in an 89-58 win as a 16-point favorite over Bowling Green last time out.  They are the better of these two teams with Xavier, and that will show tonight as they get the win and cover.

Xavier hasn't looked great itself.  The Musketeers only beat Niagara 63-60 as a 17-point favorite before topping Kent State 73-59 as an 8.5-point favorite.  But they were in a dog fight with Kent State until the final minutes.

That 3-point win over Niagara gives these teams a common opponent.  Ohio State beat Niagara by 10.  Every matchup is different, but I don't see how Xavier can be trusted to score much against Ohio State considering they shot just 39% overall and 25% from 3-point range against Niagara and Kent State.  Ohio State is shooting 49.4% overall and 36.1% from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Musketeers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take Ohio State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +13

Northern Iowa was picked to finish 2nd in the strong Missouri Valley entering the season.  You can see why most liked this team as they returned everyone from last year and all five starters.  But they were without a couple starters when they were upset by Nicholls State and Vermont to open the season.

Those guys returned to help the Panthers beat Dubuque 95-58 last time out.  And now the Panthers are at full strength and a sleeper going into Arkansas looking to give the Razorbacks a run for them money.  Northern Iowa will be looking to right some wrongs in the early going with this matchup with a Top 25 opponent.

Arkansas is due for some regression this year.  The Razorbacks lost three starters and three of their top four scorers in Moses Moody (16.8 PPG), Justin Smith (13.6 PPG) and Jalen Tate (11.0 PPG) from last year's 25-7 team.  It's no wonder they failed to cover against weak competition to open the season, only beating Mercer 74-61 as a 19-point favorite and Gardner Webb 86-69 as a 19.5-point favorite.  Northern Iowa is better than both those teams and it's not close.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Northern Iowa) - a team that had a losing record last season, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on CS-Fullerton -3

CS-Fullerton will be highly motivated for a victory after two narrow road losses to Santa Clara (77-84) and San Jose State (76-78) to open the season.  Now they are home for the first time and those two losses were against two teams that I think are underrated this season.

Fullerton actually takes a step down in class here against George Washington in my opinion.  The Colonials are 1-2 this season and just lost by 20 at Cal San Diego as a 1-point favorite.  Their lone win came against St. Francis-PA 75-72 as a 7-point home favorite.  It's a rebuilding year for GW off a 5-12 season and losing three starters from last year's team, including leading scorer Jamison Battle (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG).

I expect CS-Fullerton to be one of the most improved teams in the country and compete for a Big West title.  They went just 5-9 in the Big West last year but had three losses by a combined seven points.  There led the conference in scoring last year and return four starters who combined for 42.8 points per game last season, plus 6th man Dante Maddox Jr. (11.9 PPG).

Dante Maddox Jr (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Tre Maddox Jr. (11.0 PPG), Vincent Lee (15.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (9.5 PPG) are all back and off to solid starts with those being their season averages through two games.  They added in Tennessee transfer E.J. Anosike (15.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG), who has been their best player already.  And fellow newcomer Damari Milstead (10.0 PPG) is making a big impact already.

George Washington is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Colonials are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Georgia Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Titans while we still can.  Roll with CS-Fullerton Tuesday.

15* Saints Louis/Memphis ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on Saint Louis +10.5

I love what Travis Ford is building at Saint Louis.  They went 14-7 and made the NIT last year despite a COVID-ravaged season and brought back three starters from that team.  They also brought in several top transfers.

The Billikens are off to a dominant 3-0 start this season, covering as a 22-point favorite in a 96-61 win over Central Arkansas, beating Harris Stowe 127-54, and throttling Eastern Illinois 86-44 as a 21-point favorite.

Gibson Jimmerson (18.7 PPG), Yuri Collins (9.7 PPG, 9.3 APG), Francis Okoro (11.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and Marten Linssen (11.7 PPG) are all off to strong starts this season and back from last year's team.  Memphis transfer Jordan Nesbitt (13.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG) has fit in nicely as well.

Memphis is getting a lot of hype again this season with a Top 25 ranking and plenty of big-name recruits and talent.  But Penny Hardaway has been a disappointment.  And I don't know how they can be trusted to lay double-digits here against a team the quality of Saint Louis.

Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.  Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a home win where it scored 85 points or more.  The Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. excellent shooting teams that make 52% or better.  The Billikens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Saint Louis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games as an underdog overall.  The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Saint Louis Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia State +7.5

Georgia State is picked to win the Sun Belt this season for good reason.  They return all five starters from a team that went 16-6 last year.  And all five starters averaged at least 10.1 points per game, so they are the definition of team basketball.

The Panthers are off to a great start winning their opener 97-37 over Brewton-Parker and 83-64 over Northeastern as a 6.5-point favorite.  They have been much more impressive than Richmond, which only beat lowly NC Central 70-60 as a 26-point favorite and lost outright to Utah State 74-85 as a 6.5-point favorite.  Based off those results, there's no way Richmond should be a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup.

Richmond is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Georgia State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  Bet Georgia State Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -2

Buffalo is picked to win the MAC and the MAC is one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, especially at the top.  Ohio upset Belmont, Akron nearly upset Ohio State losing by 1, Kent State gave Xavier a run for its money and Buffalo covered in a competitive effort against Michigan.

The Bulls returned four starters this season including three who averages at least 13 points per game in Jeenathan Williams (17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Josh Mballa (15.3 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Ronaldo Segu (13.3 PPG, 4.3 APG).  Williams had 32 pionts, Segu 15 and Mballa 13 in their 76-88 loss at No. 6 ranked Michigan.

North Texas is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.  The Mean Green are picked to finish 5th in lowly Conference USA.  They lose three starters from last year and all three averaged in double figures scoring, so the losses are huge.  They don't return anyone that averages more than 10 points per game.

Buffalo is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  The Bulls are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Take Buffalo Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Belmont -6

The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year.  Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation.  I think we are getting good value on them after getting upset in their opener by a very good Ohio team from that MAC that just had a great shooting night.

The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team.  They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.  This is a team that will be highly motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after not playing in it the past two seasons. 

I backed Belmont as a 14-point favorite in its 81-43 home win over Evansville bouncing back from that loss to Ohio.  And I'm on the Bruins again tonight against Furman, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off it 80-72 upset win at Louisville, a Louisville team that is down this year.

The Paladins lost arguably their two best players from last year's team that went 16-9.  Clay Mounce (13.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is gone, as is Noah Gurley (15.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG), who transferred to Alabama.  They do have three returning starters but don't return any key players on their bench.

Belmont is 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days.  The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two straight games with 19 or more assists.  Furman is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Paladins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Furman is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -2

It's a good time to 'buy low' on South Dakota State after their 88-104 loss at Alabama on Saturday.  Well, Alabama is one of the best teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss.  Look for them to dominate Stephen F. Austin like they dominated Bradley in an 81-65 win as a 9-point favorite in their opener.

South Dakota State is the best team in the underrated Summit League this season.  The Jackrabbits returned all five starters from a team that went 16-7 overall last year and 9-3 in Summit play.  And not just any five starters, how about five staters that all averaged in double figures last year.  They also return four bench players that played significant minutes last year, allowing the Jackrabbits to play at the break-neck pace that made them the Summit's most efficient offense last season.

Stephen F. Austin is tabbed 5th in the preseason WAC predictions.  While they return four starters, they do lose one of their best players in Cameron Johnson (15.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  And the first two games by SF Austin were ugly wins against teams they should have blown out, which is a bad sign of things to come.  They only beat LSU-Alexandria 82-73 and Mary Hardin-Baylor 76-63.  Neither of those games even had betting lines.

The Jackrabbits are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  South Dakota State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Jackrabbits are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.  The Lumberjacks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Stephen F. Austin is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.  Take South Dakota State Sunday.

20* FSU/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -1

Leonard Hamilton is enjoying his best run in his 19 years at Florida State.  The Seminoles don't rebuild, they reload because he's a tremendous recruiter.  And he has taken advantage of the transfer portal again this season to reload.

The Seminoles are off to a great start this season with their 105-70 win over Pennsylvania as a 19.5-point favorite, covering by 15.5 points.  Florida only beat Elon 74-61 as a 19-point favorite, failing to cover by 6 points.  And the Gators lost two players to the NBA in the offseason and are coming off a disappointing 15-10 season as it is.

Florida State simply owns Florida.  The Seminoles have gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Gators.  They have also won seven in a row straight up in this series with the last four coming by 12, 12, 21 and 17 points.  Bet Florida State Sunday.

20* Texas/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +7.5

Chris Beard was a great hire at Texas and one of my favorite head coaches in the country.  I'll gladly back Beard and the Longhorns here against overrated Gonzaga tonight.  The Longhorns were impressive in their 92-48 win over Houston Baptist in their opener, covering as 37.5-point favorites.

Texas welcomes back Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Courtney Ramsey (12.2 PPG) this year.  They brought in some unbelievable transfers.  Timmy Allen averaged 17.2 PPG at Utah last year, Marcus Carr had four 30-point games at Minnesota last year, Tre Mitchell averaged 18.8 PPG at UMass last year and Christian Bishop averaged 11.0 PPG at Creighton last year.  All six played significant roles in the opener with Ramey leading the way with 14 points, followed by Jones (11), Carr (10), Bishop (10), Mitchell (10) and Allen (8).

Gonzaga failed to cover as a 39.5-point favorite in a 34-point win over Dixie State in the opener.  With their No. 1 ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  That's especially the case after losing three starters and studs from last year's team in Corey Kispert (18.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG), Jalen Suggs (14.4 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Joel Ayayi (12.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG).  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday BLOWOUT on Belmont -13.5

The Belmont Bruins return all five starters from a team that went 26-4 last year.  Not only that, but the top five scorers on the bench return as well, so this is really the most experienced team in the nation.  I think we are getting good value on them after getting upset in their opener by a very good Ohio team from that MAC that just had a great shooting night.

The top five scorers all averaged double figures last year for the Bruins, so this is a very balanced team.  They averaged 81.3 points per game, which ranked 13th nationally.  This is a team that will be highly motivated to get back to the NCAA Tournament after not playing in it the past two seasons.  They'll also be extra motivated off that loss to Ohio.

Look for the Bruins to make easy work of a mediocre Evansville team that lost by 22 at Cincinnati in their opener.  Belmont is better than Cincinnati.  This is an Evansville team that went 9-16 last year.  I'm not a fan of head coach Todd Lickliter, who is now 9-29 in his two seasons at the helm of the Purple Aces.

Belmont is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following an ATS loss.  The Bruins are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games overall.  The Purple Aces are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs.  Evansville is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Belmont Saturday.

15* Villanova/UCLA ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Villanova +4

It's a good time to 'sell high' on UCLA early in the season after their miraculous run to the Final Four last season.  They were lucky to even make the tournament, and needed an unlikely comeback against Michigan State in the First Four just to advantage.  They rode that momentum all the way to the Final Four.

But now the Bruins come into the season as the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  And they already covered in a 95-58 win over lowly CS-Bakersfield as a 23-point favorites.  But now they come back as 4-point favorites against Villanova despite being without one of their best post players on Cody Riley (10.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) last year.

I think Villanova is the legitimate of the Top 5 teams here as they are ranked 4th.  The Wildcats return four starters from last season and get back Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) from injury.  They also bring back Justin Moore (12.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG), Caleb Daniels (9.6 PPG) and Jermaine Samuels (12.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG).

All four played big roles in their 91-51 win as a 25.5-point favorite over Mount St. Mary's in their opener.  Moore had 27 points, Samuels 17, Gillespie 13 and Daniels 6.  They also got 17 points from Brandon Slater, a key returnee off the bench who drilled five 3-pointers as the Wildcats shot 16-of-30 from beyond the arc.  They have one of the best backcourts in the country, per usual, and it will likely lead them to an outright win at UCLA tonight.  Roll with Villanova Friday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Kent State +10

We've already seen two MAC teams picked in the top half of the league go on the road and give two of the best Big Ten teams fits.  Akron nearly upset Ohio State and lost by 1 as 16.5-point underdogs, while Buffalo easily covered at Michigan and gave the Wolverines a run for their money.

Now it's another top half of the MAC's teams turn to go on the road and give Xavier a run for its money tonight.  I like this Kent State team that returns three starters in Tervell Beck (11.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Giovanni Santiago (9.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Justyn Hamilton (8.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG), plus a double-digit scorer off the bench in Malique Jacobs (10.0 PPG, 3.7 APG).

The positive news for the Golden Flashes doesn't stop there as they also welcome in transfers Sincere Carry (11.9 PPG, 5.4 APG) from Duquesne and Andrew Garcia (8.7 PPG) from Georgia.  Keep an eye on freshman guard Jalen Sullinger, a second-team All-Ohio selection who is the nephew of Kent State assistant Julian Sullinger and NBA first-round pick Jared Sullinger and son of former Ohio State forward J.J. Sullinger.

Xavier's 63-60 win over Niagara as a 17-point favorite in the opener is concerning and makes me believe Kent State can hang, too.  That's especially the case with the Musketeers being without their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to start the season.  They are also without Ben Stanley (6.0 PPG) and could be without Kyky Tandy (6.6 PPG).

The Musketeers are 17-37-3 ATS in their last 57 games as favorites.  The Golden Flashes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Take Kent State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Riverside +10

UC-Riverside will be one of the best teams in the Big West Conference this season.  They returned three starters and four key reserves from a squad that went 14-8 overall last season and 8-4 in the Big West.  All three returning starters played well in their opener against San Diego State, as did Callum McRae who sat out all last season and newcomer J.P. Moorman II.

UC-Riverside lost that opener 53-66 to San Diego State as 12.5-point road underdogs, failing to cover by 0.5 points.  Well, San Diego State is picked by most to win the Mountain West this season, so that was a very good showing.  And the Aztecs are certainly better than this Arizona State squad.

The Sun Devils lost their top three scorers from last year in Remy Martin (19.1 PPG, 3.7 APG), Josh Christopher (14.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG).  They bring back two starters and will lack chemistry in the early going.  That was evident when they failed to cover in a 76-60 win as a 22-point home favorite against lowly Portland in their opener.  Portland is picked to finish at or near the bottom of the WCC this season.

Arizona State has been a money burner for quite some time now and will continue to be this season.  The Sun Devils are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall.  Arizona State is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Sun Devils are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games after going UNDER the total in their previous game.  Bet UC-Riverside Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Youngstown State +18

Penn State is in a rebuilding year and should not be an 18-point favorite over Youngstown State tonight.  They have a first-year head coach in Micah Sshrewsberry.  They bring back just one double-digit scorer from last year's team and lose their top two scorers in Myreon Jones (15.3 PPG) and Izaiah Brockington (12.6 PPG).

Youngstown State will be going for its third straight winning season for the first time since 1985.  Jerrod Calhoun has turned this program around as he enters his 5th season here with some continuity.  The Penguins won seven of their final nine games last season and lost to Oakland in overtime in the Horizon League tournament.

The Penguins return three starters from that team in Garrett Covington (12.5 PPG< 4.6 RPG), Shemar Rathan-Mayes (10.4 PPG) and Michael Akuchie (9.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG).  They also return four key bench players and bring in Dayton transfer Dwayne Cohill and Hampton transfer Chris Shelton.

The Nittany Lions are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites.  I'm expecting them to struggle out of the gate.  Roll with Youngstown State Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +12.5

Oral Roberts made the Sweet 16 last year.  They return three starters from that team, including Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas, who led college basketball in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  They also bring back Kareem Thompson (8.7 PPG) and four other players that averaged at least 4.1 points per game. 

Colorado State is getting too much respect as a 12.5-point favorite over Oral Roberts in the opener.  The Rams nearly made the NCAA Tournament but came up just short last year.  They will be good again with five returning starters, but they should not be laying double-digits here against Abmas and company.

The Golden Eagles are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Golden Eagles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.  Bet Oral Roberts Tuesday.

15* LA Tech/Alabama SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -11

Nate Oats is doing a tremendous job already at Alabama.  He guided the Crimson Tide to a 26-7 season including a 16-2 record in SEC play to take down the regular season title and SEC Tournament.  This team is loaded again with the best backcourt in the country.

Leading scorer Jaden Shackleford (14.0 PPG) decided to return this season.  Javon Quinerly (12.9 PPG) made 43% from 3 last season.  J.D. Davison is a five-star and one of the top recruits in the class of 2021 and will push Quinerly for playing time.  The Crimson Tide ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency last season and played at the 11th-fasted tempo in the country.

Louisiana Tech is a quality team in Conference USA year in and year out.  And while they do return three starters this season, they do lose two productive ones in Kaleb Ledoux (11.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and JaColby Pemberton (8.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Alabama as they prefer to play at a slow tempo and are defensive-minded.  Alabama will control the tempo playing at home.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

Ohio State is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 21-10 last season and earned a No. 2 seed.  They fell victim to Oral Roberts' incredible run, but that just means they come back this season highly motivated.

The Buckeyes bring back one of the best big men in the country in E.J. Lidell (16.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  They also bring back three more starters including Justice Sueing (10.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG).  They add Ohio Mr. Basketball Malaki Branham as an elite freshman recruit, plus Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler and Louisiana guard Cedric Russell to solidify their backcourt.

Akron is no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the MAC.  The Zips bring back three decent starters but lose their best player in Loren Christian Jackson (22.3 PPG, 6.1 APG), who is irreplaceable for this team.  Jackson turned pro after rolling up 1,587 points, 381 assists and two first-team All-MAC selections in his three years here.  Take Ohio State Tuesday.

20* Baylor/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on Baylor +4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 27-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  Then they blasted Houston 78-59 as 5-point favorites in the Final Four.

I think the blowout nature of that win helps them here in the Championship Game.  The Bears will still be fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Gonzaga had to play the late game and went into overtime with UCLA, winning a 93-90 thriller.  There's no question the Bears will be the fresher, more prepared team after playing in the early game on Saturday.  They got to watch Gonzaga after and got a head start to game planning.  I think this is now a very evenly-matched game and I actually make Baylor a slight favorite, so I definitely love getting the +4.5 here.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 82.8 points per game and shoot 41.2% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Gonzaga just allowed a poor UCLA offensive team to shoot 57.6% against them and every player that played in the game for the Bruins shot at least 50% from the floor.  You can just imagine what Baylor is going to do against this soft Gonzaga defense.

While Baylor is known for being an offensive juggernaut, and rightfully so, I actually believe the Bears are the better defensive team here.  That has shown in the NCAA Tournament as they are allowing just 60.0 points per game and 42% shooting in their five tournament games.  Gonzaga hasn't seen a team that is as athletic defensively as Baylor is all season.  Nothing is going to come easy for the Bulldogs tonight.

The Bears are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Baylor is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as underdogs.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* UCLA/Gonzaga Final Four ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +14.5

I was definitely skeptical of UCLA going into the Alabama game and very high on the Crimson Tide -5.5 in that game for one of my few losses of the NCAA Tournament.  But the Bruins impressed me with an outright win in that game, and they went on to upset Michigan as 6.5-point dogs.  What more does this team have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  They certainly aren't getting respect here as 14.5-point dogs to Gonzaga.

UCLA is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with four outright upsets as underdogs.  They just feel like they can't lose at this point with that 14-point comeback against Michigan State in the play-in game.  They showed some great poise after giving up an 11-point halftime lead to Alabama, and with the Crimson Tide hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to tie it.  They went on to score 23 points in overtime against one of the best defenses in the country.  Then they led basically the entire way against Michigan.

The Bruins have been playing some tremendous defense in the NCAA Tournament, and they like to slow down the pace, which is what has allowed them to win these games.  It will also allow them to keep this game close against Gonzaga with fewer possessions for both teams.  They held Michigan to 49 points, Alabama to 65 at the end of regulation, Abilene Christian to 47 and BYU to 62.

You certainly aren't getting any discounts on Gonzaga at this point after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games.  But Oklahoma, Creighton and USC all stayed within 19 points of them, and UCLA can certainly stay within 14.5 points.  It's crazy that USC was a 9-point dog to Gonzaga and now UCLA is a 14.5-point dog, a 5.5-point adjustment.  There is recency bias on the Bulldogs right now, but there clearly is no recency bias on the Bruins as nobody believes in this team.  That's just how they like it.

The Bruins are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win.  Gonzaga is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after its opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls in two consecutive games.  The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after covering four or five of their last six games against the spread.  Take UCLA Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -4.5

The Baylor Bears have been the second-best team in the country all season and it really hasn't even been close.  They are 26-2 this season and their only struggles came after a COVID pause for three weeks.  They went 1-7 ATS in their next eight games after the pause and entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued because of it.

After barely failing to cover in a 24-point win over Harford as 25.5-point favorites in their opener, the Bears have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since.  They beat Wisconsin by 13 as 6.5-point favorites, beat Villanova by 11 as 7.5-point favorites and topped Arkansas by 9 as 7.5-point favorites.  I think we are getting them at a huge discount here as only 4.5-point favorites over Houston now in the Final Four.

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Final 4 unlike Houston.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State to get here.  All four of those were double-digit seeds and pulled upsets to get to Houston! This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.

It's worth noting that Houston has only played one team that is ranked in the KenPom Top 25 all season and that was Texas Tech (20th).  The Cougars are grossly overvalued due to their 28-3 record this season.  They nearly lost to both Rutgers and Oregon State, but pulled out both games in the closing minutes.  They won't be so fortunate here against the best team they have played all season by a wide margin.

Baylor is just so tough to tame as they average 83.0 points per game and shoot 41.1% from 3-point range as a team.  Their top five scorers all shoot 39.6% or better from 3-point range.  Houston is known for great defense, but they haven't faced an offense near the caliber of Baylor this season.  They will be shell-schocked.

Baylor is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Bears are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* USC/Gonzaga Elite 8 No-Brainer on USC +8.5

The fact that Gonzaga has won 26 straight games by double-digits has this line inflated.  They have had such an easy path in those 26 games and certainly in the NCAA Tournament with wins over Norfolk State, an Oklahoma team missing its second-leading scorer and an overrated Creighton team.

Gonzaga will be in for its stiffest test of the season tonight against this USC team that is just rolling through some good opponents.  The Trojans are 6-1 in their last seven games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points to Colorado.  They have won their three NCAA Tournament games by 16 over Drake, by 34 over Kansas and by 14 over Oregon.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

USC is tricky defensively.  The Mobley brothers inside have made them the best 2-point defense in the country.  And they are mixing in their zone defense very well and will continue to do so here against Gonzaga to give them some looks that they have never seen before.  And the Bulldogs only have one day to prepare for it after beating Creighton on Saturday, which is a huge advantage for USC.

I also like the matchup for the Mobley brothers inside against Gonzaga.  The one weakness for the Bulldogs is their interior defense as Timme is soft at defending the rim, and they don't really have anyone else to do it.  Well, if there's any team that can punish them for being soft inside, it's definitely USC with the Mobley brothers.  The Trojans have been extremely efficient offensive, shooting 47.2% or better in seven consecutive games, including 50% or better in four straight.

Andy Enfield is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, going 7-0 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of USC.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Bet USC Tuesday.

20* Oregon State/Houston Elite 8 No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall with 12 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs in the Round of 32.  Then they led basically the entire way and upset Loyola-Chicago 65-58 as 7-point dogs.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8 points against Houston in the Elite 8.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Houston has had a pretty easy path to the Elite 8 unlike Oregon State.  The Cougars have beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here.  This is definitely a step up in class for the Cougars.  And I like the matchup as it is expected to be a low-scoring game as both teams are great defensively.  The total is only 129 for this game, and low-scoring games definitely favor the underdog.  This game will play right into the Beavers' hands.

Oregon State is 16-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 ATS in its last 14 games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Monday.

15* Oregon/USC Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +2.5

The Oregon Ducks have saved their best basketball of the season for last, which always seems to be the case under Dana Altman.  They have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games with their last six wins coming by 10 points or more, including their 95-80 throttling of Iowa last round.

The Ducks are definitely fresh after getting a bye into the Round of 32 by not having to play VCU.  And I just trust Dana Altman as a head coach more than Andy Enfield.  Altman is 16-4 ATS as the coach of Oregon in NCAA Tournament games.  The Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.

The USC Trojans are getting too much respect now after beating Drake and Kansas, two of the worst teams in the tournament.  Drake barely deserved to be there, and Kansas was coming off a COVID pause that forced them out of the Big 12 Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for the Trojans, and it's actually a step down in class for the Ducks after facing Iowa.  Roll with Oregon Sunday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 26-6 SU this season and are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games overall after blasting Maryland 96-77 as 6-point favorites in the Round of 32.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against UCLA.

Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35.5% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.7 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.8% shooting as a team and 28.9% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  They face a UCLA team that struggles to defense the 3-pointer, giving up 21 attempts per game at a 34.2% clip.  And it's a good matchup for the Crimson Tide because they like to run teams from the 3-point line, and UCLA shoots the 3-pointer at a 37.4% clip this season.

UCLA is getting too much respect here after beating three mediocre teams in five days to make the Sweet 16.  They rallied from 14 down to beat Michigan State in OT, beat a BYU team that was way overseeded as a No. 6 seed, and crushed an Abilene Christian team that was only in the Round of 32 because Texas played its worst game of the season with 23 turnovers to hand them the game.  This is a huge step up in class for UCLA based on what they have faced thus far in the NCAA Tournament.  Remember, the Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four gams of the season against Pac-12 opponents.

UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sweet 16 games.  Alabama is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  The Bruins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as underdogs.  The Crimson Tide are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Oats is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team forced 8 or fewer turnovers as a head coach.  Bet Alabama Sunday.

20* Oral Roberts/Arkansas Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Oral Roberts +11.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  They have proceeded to be the cinderella of the NCAA Tournament, upsetting Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs and upsetting Florida 81-78 as 9-point dogs.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Arkansas Razorbacks in the Sweet 16.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 11 games overall and topped 80 points eight times.  They have averaged 84 points per game in their last 11 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of those upset wins over Ohio State and Florida.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.

Having already seen Arkansas once this season is a big advantage for Oral Roberts.  And it's worth noting the Golden Eagles actually led the Razorbacks by 10 points at halftime before getting outscored by 21 after intermission.  That was a true road game for the Golden Eagles and they only lost by 11.  They should be able to stay within 11.5 points in the rematch on a neutral this time around.

Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season.  Bet Oral Roberts Saturday.

20* Oregon State/Loyola-Chicago Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall with 11 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset of Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs in the opening round.  They led by as many as 18 against Oklahoma State and won 80-70 as 6-point dogs last round.

The Beavers also pulled off three straight upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game for another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 6.5 points against Loyola-Chicago.  What more does this team have to do to do get some some respect?

Loyola-Chicago goes from being a 7-point underdog to Illinois to a 6.5-point favorite against Oregon State.   That's a 13.5-point adjustment and it's too much.  Of course the Ramblers want to win this game too.  But coming off such a huge upset victory against Illinois to bounce the first #1 seed from the tournament is such an emotional high.

It's going to be hard for them to get up for Oregon State as much as they were up for Illinois, an in-state opponent where they were looked at as the little brother.  They may very well win this game too, but asking them to win by 7 points or more to beat us is asking a lot.

Oregon State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog.  The Beavers are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Oregon State is a perfect 13-0 ATS in its last 13 games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -4

I really believe the Memphis Tigers could have made a run in the NCAA Tournament with how well they played down the stretch had they gotten in.  Now they are taking their frustration out on NIT opponents and looking to make a statement.  That showed in their 71-60 win over Dayton in their first-round game.

Memphis is now 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The three losses all came by 3 points or less with two of them to Houston, which is in the Sweet 16.  They lost on a buzzer-beater 64-67 at Houston and lost in the AAC Tournament 74-76 to the Cougars.  Each of their 11 wins during this stretch have come by 4 points or more.

It has been a bad look for the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament with San Diego State getting blown out by Syracuse and Utah State getting blown out by Texas Tech.  Boise State went 0-4 SU in its final four games of the season with losses to SDSU (twice), Fresno State and Nevada.  Then they barely beat SMU 85-84 in the opening round of the NIT, but that is a short-handed SMU team that was coming off a long COVID pause and rusty.  This will be a much stiffer test for the Broncos tonight.

Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  Memphis is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Memphis Thursday.

20* Maryland/Alabama CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 25-6 SU this season and are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  They have consistently been getting margin with their up-tempo style under Nate Oats, and that's why I'm willing to lay the points with them here against Maryland.

I believe Maryland is one of the worst teams left in the NCAA Tournament.  They are just 17-13 this season and had recent upset losses to both Penn State and Northwestern, who of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  They somehow shot 51.2% and held UConn to 32.3% shooting last round, which was an aberration and won't happen again.

Maryland is one of the worst teams in the country at defending the 3-pointer.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them as Alabama ranks in the Top 30 in the country in amount of points coming from the 3-point line as they hoist 30 per game at a 35% clip.  And while this Alabama offense that scores 79.2 PPG gets the attention, the Crimson Tide actually rank 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency.  They give up just 40.4% shooting as a team and 28.5% shooting from 3-point range on the season.  Maryland is a terrible offensive team and won't be able to keep up on the scoreboard in this one.

Maryland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Terrapins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.  Maryland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games after winning two of its last three games coming in this season.  Bet Alabama Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on LSU +5

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with two of their wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The other was in the Round of 64 against Texas Southern, but I cashed in Texas Southern +26.5 easily as they only lost by 16 to Michigan.  I'll gladly fade the Wolverines again for a number of the same reasons.

The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Now they take a big step up in competition against LSU, which unlike Michigan, is peaking at the right time.  The Tigers are 5-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Vanderbilt by 15 as 15-point favorites, Missouri by 6 as 3.5-point road dogs, Ole Miss by 3 as 1-point favorites, Arkansas by 7 as 3.5-point favorites and St. Bonaventure by 15 as 2-point favorites.  

Their lone loss came 79-80 to Alabama as 6-point dogs in the SEC Championship Game only after they missed a handful of opportunities to win it just before the buzzer.  And I hold Alabama in very high regard.  If they can nearly beat Alabama, they can certainly beat a Michigan team that's without Livers.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 6-0 ATS in its six games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  These four trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with LSU Monday.

15* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +5.5

The Ohio Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Then Ohio came out and upset Virginia 62-58 as 6.5-point dogs in the Round of 64.  Now I think they take a step down in competition here against Creighton and are once again underdogs of 5.5 points.  This is a game the Bobcats can certainly win outright, and those games against both Virginia and Illinois prove they can hang with and beat anyone.

Creighton was fortunate to survive in a 63-62 win as 7.5-point favorites over UC-Santa Barbara in the Round of 64.  The Bluejays are now 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games overall and dealing with the aftermath of the Greg McDermott racist comments.  They lost by 25 to Georgetown, by 12 to Villanova and by 8 to Xavier.  Two of their wins came against lowly Butler, another was a 3-point win over UConn and then that 1-point win over UCSB.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to be laying 5.5 points to a team that is playing as well as Ohio is.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Bluejays are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Take Ohio Monday.

20* Oregon/Iowa CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +5.5

Once Oregon got past all the COVID problems they really flashed their potential down the stretch this season.  They went 11-2 SU in their final 13 games this season with each of their last five victories coming by double-digits.  This late-season should come as no surprise as Oregon head coach Dana Altman is one of the best in the country and always has his teams playing their best basketball late in the season.  

Altman is 15-4 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games as the coach of Oregon, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in first round games.  His teams have won by 18.5 points per game on average in the first round.  Well, the Ducks didn't have to play a first-round game because it got canceled due to COVID issues for VCU.  That means the Ducks will be the fresher, more prepared team here against Iowa.

Iowa is about as vulnerable a Top 2 seed as there is in the NCAA Tournament.  That's because they don't defend very well, and they are particularly poor at defending the 3-pointer, ranking outside the Top 200 in that department.  That's bad news considering they will be up against one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country in Oregon that shoots it at a 37.9% clip.  

Oregon also turns it over just 11 times per game and will get great shots almost every time down the floor.  Iowa shot 53.7% and held Grand Canyon to 42.9% yet still failed to cover in a 12-point win as 13.5-point favorites.  Oregon will close the gap in that department and has a great shot to win this game outright.

The Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  The Ducks are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oregon Monday.

20* Oregon State/Oklahoma State CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +6.5

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall with 10 outright victories as underdogs.  They dominated from start to finish and pulled the 70-56 upset as 8.5-point dogs to Tennessee in the opening round, and now they are being undervalued once again as 6.5-point dogs to Oklahoma State.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Oklahoma State found itself in a dog fight with a bad Liberty team.  The Cowboys were very fortunate to cover in a 69-60 win as 7-point favorites.  They trailed by 3 at halftime and didn't finally put the game away until the closing minute.  This is a big step up in competition here against Oregon State.  And they are facing a Beavers team playing with a ton of confidence and shooting the 3-pointer at better than a 44% clip over their last handful of games.

The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Beavers are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  Take Oregon State Sunday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oral Roberts +8.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.  Then they upset Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs.  I was on them in that game and I'm back on them today against Florida.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like the Gators.  The Golden Eagles have scored 75 or more points in each of their last 10 games overall and topped 80 points seven times.  They have averaged 84.3 points per game in their last 10 games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference outside of that upset win over Ohio State.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those five teams, they can certainly hang with Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.  They trailed basically the entire way against Virginia Tech in their NCAA Tournament opener and were fortunate to win that game in OT.

Oral Roberts is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Gators are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a win by 6 points or less.  Florida is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Oral Roberts Sunday.

15* Syracuse/WVU Round of 32 ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +4.5

The Syracuse Orange are playing with a chip on their shoulder because they had a ton of naysayers that stated they shouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament.  But the fact of the matter is they earned their spot, and they have saved their best basketball for last which always seems to be the case with head coach Jim Boeheim.  They have also done their best work in the NCAA Tournament as a double-digit seed, making recent Final Four and Sweet 16 runs the last two times it happened.

Syracuse is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall with its only loss coming to Virginia on a last-second 3-pointer in the ACC Tournament as a 5.5-point dogs.  They beat UNC by 2, Clemson by 10, NC State by 21 and then San Diego State by 16.  This game should be lined closer to a PK with the way Syracuse is playing right now.

West Virginia was in a close game with Morehead State before finally pulling away late.   The Mountaineers allowed 52% shooting and they just have a way of losing closing games this season with four recent losses all by 5 points or fewer.  They are just tough to trust late in games against quality competition because they take such poor shots.  And I like backing Syracuse in tournament situations where teams only have one day or less to get ready for them.  Boeheim's patented 2-3 zone takes time to prepare for.

Syracuse is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Orange are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament.  West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a win by 15 points or more.  The Orange are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as underdogs, including 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games as underdogs.  I expect that huge chip on their shoulder to lead to another upset victory here over the Mountaineers.  Roll with Syracuse Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -8

If you listened to my podcast this week you know I'm high on Texas to make a Final Four Run playing in the easiest region, which is the East.  I'm high on them for a number of reasons, and I'm certainly laying the points with them in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against Abilene Christian Saturday.

The Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won five straight games coming in and only had to win two games in the Big 12 Tournament to win it all.  That's because their semifinal game against Kansas got canceled.  So they should still be pretty fresh.  They beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Tournament.

The guard trio of Jones, Ramey and Coleman II are elite and all average 12.4 PPG or more.  They all shoot better than 80% from the free throw line as well.  Another guard in Febres has only played in their last 10 games and is improving with each game, scoring in double figures in two of his last four games.

Texas also has a pair of elite post players in Jerricho Sims and Kai Jones.  Sims averaged 15.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in the Big 12 Tournament and is an athletic freak who does everything for this game.  Jones added 11.5 points and 6.0 boards in the tournament and even shoots 36.7% from 3-point range on the season.  There's just no weaknesses with this team.

Abilene Christian is one of the shortest teams in the country.  They are going to have a hard time getting rebounds against Texas, which is one of the taller teams in the country.  The Longhorns are +5 in rebounding margin this season due to their size inside.  They defend at an elite level, holding opponents to 41.3% shooting this season.  

Abilene Christian played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their only two difficult games coming in a 13-point loss to Arkansas and a 7-point loss to Texas Tech in which the Red Raiders had an off shooting night at 27.9%, yet still found a way to win that game.  Abilene played the 330th-ranked schedule in the country, while Texas played the 33rd-ranked schedule.

Texas went 11-2 SU in all road/neutral games this season while playing its best basketball away from home.  The Longhorns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference win.  Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after two or more consecutive wins.  The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Ohio +7.5

Virginia got popped with COVID and was forced out of the ACC Tournament.  The Cavaliers haven't been able to practice leading up to the NCAA Tournament, so there's no doubt they are going to be rusty.  They are primed to get upset by Ohio here Saturday.

The Bobcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with three wins by a combined 44 points in the MAC Tournament despite being underdogs in two of them to Toledo and Buffalo.  And don't forget, the Bobcats took Illinois to the wire earlier this season in a 75-77 loss as 15.5-point road underdogs.

Virginia plays the type of style that lets teams hang around even if they weren't in a tough situation on here with COVID.  They slow it down to a snails' pace always and rely on their defense to win games.  Well, Ohio averages 80.9 points per game and shoots 48.9% as a team.  They will get plenty of points to stay within this number and possibly pull off the upsets.

The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Ohio is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Cavaliers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 postseason tournament games.  The Cavaliers are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 first-round tournament games.  Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Take Ohio Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Southern +26.5

Texas Southern (17-8) should not be catching 26.5 points against Michigan in the Round of 64.  The Tigers have gone 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They can hang with the Wolverines based off of what we've seen from them in the non-conference.

The Tigers only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They really weren't overmatched in any of those games, and they won't be overmatched enough by Michigan to lose this game by 27-plus, which is what it's going to take for the Wolverines to cover this number.

Michigan really peaked too early.  But the Wolverines have gone 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall with their only wins coming against Michigan State and Maryland, two fringe NCAA Tournament teams.  The Wolverines lost their best player in Isaiah Livers (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) to an ankle injury against Maryland and didn't have him in their loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.  They are going to have to slow it down and rely on defense to win games without Livers.  They can't be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers without him.

Texas Southern is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Texas Southern Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Colorado CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgetown +6.5

Georgetown has been grossly undervalued all season as evidenced by their 16-9 ATS record.  They saved their best basketball for last, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming to UConn (twice).

The Hoyas won four straight games outright as underdogs in the Big East Tournament, outscoring their opponents by a combined 53 points in the process.  They won by 19 over Marquette, by 1 over Villanova, by 8 over Seton Hall and then blasted Creighton by 25 in the championship game while playing their 4th game in 4 days.

I like the fact that this game will be played on Saturday instead of Friday, giving the Hoyas and extra day to recover from playing four games in four days.  And I also like the early 12:15 EST start time, which is going to be a 10:15 body clock game for Colorado as they are from the Mountain time zone.  The Buffaloes aren't used to playing games this early, but the Hoyas are as they are from the East Coast.

The Hoyas are an elite defensive team as they held opponents to 56.5 points per game in the Big East Tournament.  They had four different players average double figures scoring in the tournament, led by Blair and his 15.3 PPG plus Wahab and his 14.3 PPG and 8.3 RPG inside. 

I usually look to fade the Pac-12 in the NCAA Tournament because they are the weakest of the Power conferences.  Colorado had all three games in its Pac-12 Tournament decided by 3 points or less.  They only beat Cal by 3 as 14-point favorites.  They beat USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  And they lost outright to Oregon State by 2 as 8.5-point favorites in the Championship Game and trailed the entire way.

I just don't like much about this Colorado team outside PG Wright IV and C Battey, who has a hard time staying out of foul trouble.  They just rely too much on those two players to get their production, so they are pretty easy to stop.  The Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as favorites.  Colorado is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament Games.  They have been terrible away from Colorado through the years.  The Hoyas come in with a ton of confidence from winning the Big East Tournament and that momentum carries over here with a likely upset of the Buffaloes in the opening round.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland State +20.5

The Cleveland State Vikings have been undervalued all season.  They went 19-7 SU & 17-8-1 ATS this season and are once again getting zero respect from the books in the opening round.  They are 20.5-point underdogs to the Houston Cougars.  I fully expect them to give Houston a run for its money.

Cleveland State has been competitive in every game this season with two exceptions.  They lost 46-101 at Ohio, but that was due to shooting 22.8% as a team.  It was a complete aberration.  They came back in their next game and only lost 61-67 as 23.5-point dogs at Ohio State to really show their potential.  The Buckeyes are a fellow No. 2 seed alongside Houston.  They also lost 49-85 at Wright State the day after upsetting Wright State as a 9.5-point underdog.  It was a letdown spot for them, and a revenge spot for Wright State as they shot just 27.9% in that game.

Houston is way overvalued coming into the NCAA Tournament after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes 38 and 37-point victories over Cincinnati.  The other covers came against Western Kentucky, South Florida and Tulane.  The two non-covers were close wins against Memphis by 3 and 2 points.  So they haven't faced a single NCAA Tournament team in their last seven games.  The last one they faced they lost outright at Wichita State as 7.5-point favorites.  They only faved two NCAA Tournament teams all season in Wichita State and Texas Tech, so they padded their record against a soft schedule as the AAC was way down this season.

Dennis Gates is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Cleveland State.  The Vikings are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Cleveland State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Take Cleveland State Friday.

20* Oregon State/Tennessee CBB No-Brainer on Oregon State +8

Oregon State has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since mid-January.  The Beavers are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall with nine outright victories as underdogs.  They are being undervalued once again here as 8-point dogs in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

They pulled off three upsets against three of the best teams in the Pac-12 to win the conference tournament.  They beat UCLA outright as 5.5-point dogs, crushed Oregon by 11 as 8.5-point dogs, and led basically the entire way against Colorado in the championship game in another outright win as 8.5-point dogs.  What more does this team need to do to get some respect?

Tennessee faded a little down the stretch in going 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS in their final nine games.  I just don't think this team is good enough to be laying this kind of number against a team playing as well as Oregon State.  And I just don't trust head coach Rick Barnes, who is 7-17-1 ATS in his last 25 NCAA Tournament games and failed time and time again dating back to his time at Texas in this spot.

The Beavers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games as underdogs.  Oregon State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.  Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as favorites.  The Beavers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs this season.  Take Oregon State Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +16.5

Oral Roberts went 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its final five games this season to punch its ticket into the Big Dance after winning the Summit League Tournament.  They pulled off upsets over South Dakota State and North Dakota State to get here in the final two games of the tournament.

This Oral Roberts team is an offensive juggernaut and can keep up with a team like Ohio State, which is vulnerable defensively.  The Golden Eagles scored 75 or more points in each of their final nine games this season and topped 80 points seven times.  They averaged 85.3 points per game in those nine games.

There's also four games that really stand out for Oral Roberts in the non-conference.  After getting blasted by Missouri in their opener, they held their own against four other NCAA Tournament teams.  They only lost at Wichita State (80-85) as 10-point dogs, at Oklahoma State (78-83) as 15.5-point dogs, at Oklahoma (65-79) as 16.5-point dogs and at Arkansas (76-87) as 19.5-point dogs.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly hang with Ohio State.

I think the Buckeyes are a little fatigued right now after playing four games in four days in the Big Ten Tournament, including two overtime games.  All four games went down to the wire as they beat Minnesota by 4, beat Purdue in OT, beat Michigan by 1 and lost to Illinois in OT.  Now they have to play on Friday in the first slate of Round of 64 games.  It's going to be a tall task to ask them to beat Oral Roberts by 17-plus points to cover this number.

Oral Roberts is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Golden Eagles are 8-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Buckeyes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Bet Oral Roberts Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -8.5

This Arkansas team is one of the most underrated in the country.  They have gone 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Their only losses came by 4 at Oklahoma State and by 7 to LSU in the SEC Tournament.  And I just love their head coach in Eric Musselman.

The 14-1 record for Colgate stands out like a sore thumb and has them overvalued.  But they played one of the easiest schedules in the country, which is the biggest reason for that record.  They played the 313th-ranked schedule.  They didn't play anyone outside the Patriot League this season, which is one of the weakest conferences in the country.

Arkansas will be by far the best team that Colgate has played this season, and it's not really even close.  Arkansas only had six losses all season and only one of those came against a team ranked outside the Top 30 in Kenpom, which was Missouri.  They beat three teams that are in the NCAA Tournament in the non-conference all by double-digits in North Texas, Oral Roberts and Abilene Christian, three teams that I believe are all better than Colgate.

Colgate has only faced five different opponents the entire season, and Army is the highest ranked team they played at KenPom and they're ranked 189th.  They lost by 23 to Clemson, by 16 to Syracuse and by 29 to Auburn in three non-conference games last year.  

Arkansas finished 35th in offensive efficiency this season.  Colgate didn't face a team that finished in the top 200 in offensive efficiency this season.  Arkansas ranks 14th in defensive efficiency.  Army is the best defensive team that Colgate has faced at 149th, and outside Loyola-Maryland, the Raiders didn't face another team that ranked better than 285th in defensive efficiency.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Colgate) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Razorbacks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Arkansas Friday.

15* VA Tech/Florida CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech ML +100

This is the first game off the board Friday at 12:15 EST.  I think Virginia Tech is a sleeper in this NCAA Tournament and comes into this game with Florida way undervalued.  That's due to the three-week COVID pause late in the season that had everyone forget about how good of a team the Hokies were before the pause.

They went 14-4 before the pause.  They have gone just 1-2 since returning from it with the losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the two teams that are arguably playing the best of anyone in the AC right now.  And they beat Wake Forest by 38 points in between those defeats.  I think having three games under their belts since the pause will have taken the rust away.  And I just think they are a much better team than Florida.

The Gators were fortunate to get into the NCAA Tournament with a 14-9 record.  They went 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS over their final nine games this season.  They lost by double-digits to Tennessee twice and also to Arkansas by doubles.  Their four wins during this stretch all came against non-NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia, Auburn, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.  They went 0-4 against NCAA Tournament teams and also lost to lowly South Carolina.

Florida struggles to get good shots on offense and relies and creating turnovers and getting out in transition.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Gators.  Virginia Tech is one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, committing just 12 turnovers per game.  I also like that the Hokies are the 4th-best team in the country at defending the paint.  They only allow 41.9% shooting from the field on the season.

The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Friday games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  Roll with Virginia Tech Friday.

20* UCLA/Michigan State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Michigan State -1.5

Two teams headed in opposite directions square off in the play-in game here with Michigan State taking on UCLA.  I'll side with the team with the positive momentum in the Spartans in a game they basically just have to win to cover.

Michigan State went 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its final eight games of the season to earn its way into the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset wins over Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan.  Those latter three teams are two #1 seeds and a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they've proven they can play with anyone.

UCLA comes into the big dance limping to the finish line.  The Bruins went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games this season, including an upset loss to Oregon State in their Pac-12 tournament opener.  And we saw UCLA lose to Ohio State in non-conference action in their lone game against a Big Ten opponent.

This game will be played in Purdue's Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana, which is an advantage for the Spartans because they are used to playing there every season.  They just played there on February 16th and being used to the venue and the rims is certainly an advantage.

The Bruins are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  UCLA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a SU loss.  The Bruins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.  UCLA is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 neutral site games as an underdog.  Take Michigan State Thursday.

15* Drake/Wichita State Play-In ANNIHILATOR on Drake +2

The Drake Bulldogs aren't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament.  They are looking to make a statement with all the naysayers out there believing they should not be in the NCAA Tournament.  Look for them to upset the Wichita State Shockers in their play-in game Thursday.

Drake went 25-4 this season and had the second-most wins of any team in the country.  Two of those losses came to Loyola-Chicago, a team they also beat and is a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament.  The Bulldogs deserve to be here, and they did it despite being without two of their best players down the stretch in leading scorer and rebounder ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Roman Penn (11.2 PPG, 5.5 APG).

Well, there's good news on the horizon as head coach Darian Devries has stated that everything is on track for Hemphill to make his much-anticipated return to the lineup for the NCAA Tournament.  He has missed the last seven games.  Penn has missed the last five games and is out for the season.  But Joseph Yesufu has stopped up in a big way in Penn's absence.  He has averaged 23.7 PPG in his last six games in place of Penn.

Wichita State went 16-5 this season but isn't as good as its record would indicate.  The Shockers went just 3-7 ATS in their final 10 games this season.  They were simply fortunate in close games this season as they had 10 wins by 6 points or fewer and 12 wins by 8 points or less.  Their only four wins by double-digits came against Emporia State, Newmann, South Florida and Tulsa.  To compare, Drake has 16 wins by double-digits.

The Bulldogs are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Bulldogs are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  Wichita State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Shockers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games as favorites.  Roll with Drake Thursday.

20* Mount St. Mary's/Texas Southern NCAA Tournament Opener on Texas Southern -2

Texas Southern (16-8) should be much more than a 2-point favorite against Mount St. Mary's (12-10) in this play-in game to kick off the 2021 NCAA Tournament.  They have fared better against the better competition and come into the tournament with a ton of confidence.

That's because the Tigers have gone 14-1 SU in their last 15 games overall with their only loss coming by 2 points.  They played the much tougher non-conference schedule and had a good account of themselves against the better competition.

They only lost to Washington State by 4 as 10-point dogs, to Oklahoma State by 20 as 19.5-point dogs, upset Wyoming as 9.5-point dogs, covered against St. Mary's in a 12-point loss as 15.5-point dogs, lost to Auburn by 17 as 14-point dogs and lost to BYU by 16 as 17.5-point dogs.  They weren't really overmatched in any of those games.

The two best teams that Mount St. Mary's played out of conference were Maryland and VCU.  They lost by 18 to Maryland and by 18 to VCU.  The rest of their schedule was soft as butter, and they also lost to Navy in the non-conference.

Texas Southern is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games.  Texas Southern is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  Bet Texas Southern Thursday.

20* Ohio State/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -6

Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Fighting Illini are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games overall with six straight covers coming in.  They received a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, then made easy work of both Rutgers (90-68) and Iowa (72-61), so they should still be pretty fresh and ready to go for this Championship Game.

The same cannot be said for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have to be running on fumes here Sunday playing their 4th game in 4 days.  They have barely survived each game they've won to get here.  They beat lowly Minnesota 79-75 as an 11-point favorites, needed OT to beat Purdue, and upset Michigan 68-67 yesterday.

They took advantage of a Michigan team that was missing its best player in Isaiah Livers.  They won't be able to take advantage of Illinois, which is fully healthy and ready to cap off a championship season.  And Ohio State is likely to be without Kyle Young (8.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) due to a concussion, so they are going to be short-handed inside.  That's bad news when going up against a guy like Kofi Cockburn (17.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG) of Illinois.

Illinois is 11-1 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

15* Cincinnati/Houston AAC ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are making the most of their AAC Tournament after what was a tough regular season due to COVID.  The Bearcats have pulled two straight upsets over SMU as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they have their sights set on making the NCAA Tournament with a win over Houston Sunday.

At the very least, the Bearcats should cover this 13.5-point spread, and there's plenty of reason to believe there's value with them here.  Keep in mind Cincinnati was only a 12.5-point dog at Houston in their last meeting on February 21st.  Now the Bearcats are 13.5-point dogs on a neutral.

Certainly the Bearcats want revenge after losing 52-90 at Houston, which is 15-0 at home this season.  But that was a rare blowout loss for them.  In fact, they haven't lost by more than 15 points in any other game all season.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, so I don't think fatigue will be much of an issue for the Bearcats compared to the Cougars.  If anything, it's Houston that will be the more tired team because Cincinnati goes eight deep and had all eight players play between 15 and 32 minutes yesterday.  Meanwhile, Houston had to work for a 76-74 win over Memphis, which saw four starters play 38, 38, 37 and 31 minutes.

Lastly, Houston is almost already assured of a Top 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They just don't need this game as much as Cincinnati does, and I think motivation will be an issue for the Cougars.  Especially after recently blasting Cincinnati by 38 points they probably feel like they just have to show up to win.  I'll gladly back the team that wants it more catching 13.5 points.  Roll with Cincinnati Sunday.

15* Oregon State/Colorado Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Oregon State Beavers have quietly gone 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are coming off two straight upset victories over UCLA and Oregon, including their impressive 75-64 win over the Ducks yesterday as 8.5-point dogs.  Now they are being disrespected once again as 8-point dogs to Colorado Saturday.

Colorado is coming off two straight hard-fought wins over California by 3 as 14-point favorites and USC by 2 as 1.5-point favorites.  The Buffaloes are also played the late game last night, while Oregon State got to play before them.  I think the Beavers will actually be the fresher team here because of it.

Plus, Colorado is content with already punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament.  Oregon State is on a mission to make the big dance and likely still needs to win this game to get in.  At the very least they should be able to stay within this 8-point spread and only lost by 4 as 6.5-point dogs to the Buffaloes the last time they squared off.

The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when revenging a same-season loss.  The Beavers are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing three consecutive games as underdogs.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5

Texas is playing its best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  The Longhorns have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming by 2 to West Virginia and on the road to Texas Tech.  They avenged that defeat to the Red Raiders yesterday with a clutch 67-66 win that gave them all the confidence in the world.

Now the Longhorns are in an extremely favorable spot today.  They had yesterday off after a positive COVID test for Kansas.  So they will be rested and ready to go and win the Big 12 Tournament here today against Oklahoma State.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day after two hard-fought, upset wins over West Virginia and Baylor the past two days.  Both were decided by single-digits, and they win over Baylor makes it a successful Big 12 Tournament for the Cowboys no matter what happens in the championship game.  I think the rest and motivated really favors Texas here because of it.

The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win.  The Longhorns are 10-2 SU in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -4

Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall with five straight covers coming in.  They made easy work of Rutgers yesterday 90-68 so they should still be fresh and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Iowa Hawkeyes, who had to erase a 6-point halftime deficit to beat Wisconsin 62-57.  The fact that they were in a dog fight yesterday and the fact that they played the late game while Illinois played before them works against the Hawkeyes here. 

 Illinois will be the much fresher team after winning in a blowout and playing before Iowa Friday, especially with tip set for 3:30 EST this afternoon after Iowa played late last night.  The Fighting Illini won their lone meeting with Iowa 80-75 at home earlier this season.  They have a guy in Cockburn down low that can match up with Garza, and they have the athletic perimeter players on the outside that Iowa can't guard.  It's just a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes.

Plays against underdogs (Iowa) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games against an opponent that beat the spread by 48 or more points in their last seven games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Fighting Illini are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/LSU SEC No-Brainer on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the SEC.  They are a real sleeper to make a run in this tournament, and I love their chances of beating Ole Miss today.  Especially since they had a bye into this round, while Ole Miss has to play the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over SOuth Carolina yesterday.

LSU earned a bye by going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their final five games down the stretch with four wins by double-digits and an upset road win at Missouri.  Ole Miss is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Rebels here.

LSU won 75-61 as a 2-point road dog at Ole Miss in their lone meeting this season.  The Tigers improved to 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and they are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  With this line the Tigers basically just have to win to cover, which shouldn't be a problem given the favorable spot for them.  Roll with LSU Friday.

20* UNC/Florida State ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -3

Florida State has a massive rest advantage here after its game with Duke got postponed yesterday.  I was on the Seminoles in that game and disappointed it got postponed.  But I'm back on them again today for many of the same reasons I was against Duke.

North Carolina will be playing for a third consecutive day.  The Tar Heels had to rally from a halftime deficit to beat Virginia Tech 81-73 yesterday.  And that was a rusty Hokies team that was coming off a long COVID pause.

The Tar Heels had seven different players play at least 21 minutes yesterday against the Hokies.  They will be on tired legs here, and that's bad news against a fresh, deep Florida State team that will run them out of the gym.

The Tar Heels are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games as underdogs.  The favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Seminoles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Seminoles are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 neutral site games.

North Carolina is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after two straight games where it grabbed 10 or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following three or more consecutive wins.  It's definitely time to 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today in a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Seminoles.  Bet Florida State Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  They have gone 21-5 this season, have won eight straight coming in and are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games overall.  This number is way too short today against Missouri given their advantages.

Arkansas earned a double-bye and is rested and ready to go now.  Meanwhile, Missouri was in a dog fight in a 73-70 win over Georgia yesterday as 6.5-point favorites.  Four starters had to play 30-plus minutes for the Tigers and they won't have much left in the tank here for Arkansas.  Look for the Razorbacks to run the Tigers out of the gym tonight.

Missouri is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Take Arkansas Friday. 

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Purdue +1.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They should not be underdogs today to Ohio State with how well they are playing, their head-to-head success and the favorable spot for them.

Indeed, Purdue earned a double-bye and didn't have to play yesterday.  They will be rested and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Ohio State had to hold off Minnesota late for a 79-75 victory as 11-point favorites.  The Buckeyes are now 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now the Buckeyes are a tired team and are taking on a Purdue team they are 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS against this season.  The Boilermakers won 67-60 at home and 67-65 on the road.  Ohio State had two of its worst offensive performances of the season against this Purdue defense.  It won't go much better for them today on tired legs.  Purdue is now 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games overall with a 2-point loss to West Virginia and a 9-point loss to Texas Tech.

The Longhorns also lost by 2 to the Red Raiders earlier this season at home.  They blew a 10-point halftime lead in that 2-point loss.  They were also tied at halftime in their 9-point loss to Texas Tech in the rematch.  So they simply fell apart in the 2nd half of both games.  They will certainly want some revenge here, and while I don't believe in the saying it's hard to beat a team three times in the same season, I do believe it will be hard for the Red Raiders to beat a team as good as Texas three times.

That's especially the case with how well the Longhorns are playing right now and on the road this season.  Texas is 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  Texas Tech is just 6-5 SU & 4-7 ATS in all road games.

Texas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games off a conference win.  The Red Raiders have been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season.  They are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Texas Tech is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games following a SU loss.  Take Texas Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -5.5

The Wisconsin Badgers will be highly motivated for a victory in their Big Ten Tournament opener here against Penn State.  They ended the season on a three-game losing streak to three of the best teams in the Big Ten in Illinois, Purdue and Iowa with all three losses coming by 5 points or less.

Now the Badgers are rested and ready to go today against Penn State, which had to rally from a 15-point deficit to beat lowly Nebraska 72-66.  The Nittany Lions had to play their starters big minutes obviously to make that comeback and will now be tired.  

Penn State will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 5 days.  The Nittany Lions come in overvalued off three straight victories against three bottom feeders in the Big Ten in Minnesota, Maryland and Nebraska.  Conversely, Wisconsin comes in undervalued off three straight losses to the cream of the crop in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  Penn State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering two of its last three ATS.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4-3 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  The Badgers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Wisconsin Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -8.5

The Oregon Ducks are on their usual late-season surge and playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to USC.  They have also covered four straight coming in with four straight victories by 8 points or more.

Now the Ducks are rested and ready to go today while Arizona State had to play yesterday.  The Sun Devils needed a comeback win to beat Washington State 64-59.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 8 days.

The Sun Devils are already short-handed due to injuries, which is a big reason they are an awful 11-13 SU & 6-18 ATS this season.  Oregon won 75-64 at Arizona State in their lone meeting this season and should have no problem beating them by double-digits today given the favorable situation they are in.

The Sun Devils are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Arizona State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Sun Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.  The Ducks are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win.  Oregon is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following four or more consecutive ATS wins.  Arizona State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in its previous game.  Roll with Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Georgetown/Villanova UNDER 141

The Villanova Wildcats are going to be without two of their top three scorers today on Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Justin Moore (12.7 PPG).  They are going to have to rely on their defense to try and advantage in this Big East Tournament against Georgetown Thursday.

Their first game without Gillespie resulted in a 54-52 loss to Providence and only 106 combined points.  They also lost Moore to an ankle injury in that game, and he is now doubtful for the Big East Tournament.

Georgetown locked down Marquette defensively in a 68-49 win and 117 combined points.  The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with two of the last three seeing 139 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is also 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Hoyas last five games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +11.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have not packed it in and are still fighting for that elusive Big 12 victory.  It might just happen where the magic seems to always happen for them every year at Hilton South in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament.  They have had unbelievable success in this tournament over the years.

Now the Cyclones get a huge boost with the return of leading scorer Rasir Bolton (15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.9 APG), who left early in the TCU game on February 27th with an ankle injury and had to sit out the next three games.  It's no wonder the Cyclones have gone 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Now is a great time to 'buy low' on Iowa State.

Somehow, Oklahoma continues to get massive respect from oddsmakers despite going 0-4 SU in its last four games overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Sooners only beat the Cyclones by 7 at home and by 10 on the road in their two earlier meetings.  So the Cyclones have proven they can play with them, and they should not be catching 11.5 points here.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after failing to cover three of its last four ATS.  Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after three straight games with 31 or fewer rebounds.  The Cyclones are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 conference tournament games.  Iowa State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games as an underdog.  The Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.

20* Texas A&M/Vanderbilt SEC No-Brainer on Vanderbilt ML -114

The Vanderbilt Commodores have been one of the most underrated teams in the country since late January.  They have gone 7-1-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have one of the best players in the country in Scotty Pippen Jr.

Pippen Jr. (20.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) missed three games in a row with an ankle injury but returned to score 36 points in a 78-64 upset win at Cincinnati as 6.5-point underdogs on March 4th.  He and Dylan Disu (15.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG) can carry the Commodores to a couple victories in the SEC Tournament, starting with this opener against Texas A&M.

The Aggies were off from January 20th until March 3rd due to a COVID pause.  They have only played two games since returning and lost them both to Mississippi State and Arkansas.  This team is rusty and out of sync, and I don't see much changing here against a Vanderbilt team that is playing its best basketball of the season.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in road games following a loss this season.  Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Aggies are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games as underdogs, including 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games overall.  The Commodores are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.  Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +1

The Washington State Cougars want revenge from their 74-77 (OT) road loss at Arizona State on February 27th at 5-point underdogs.  But the Cougars didn't have their best player in Isaac Bonton (17.7 PPG, 4.0 APG, 4.0 RPG) for that game, and they'll have him back in the lineup now for the Pac-12 Tournament opener.  It will make all the difference for this team.

Arizona State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season.  The Sun Devils entered the season in the Top 25 and have fallen flat on their faces.  They are just 10-13 SU & 5-18 ATS this season.

Injuries have taken their toll on the Sun Devils, who are still missing several key players entering the Pac-12 Tournament.  And it wasn't a good look for them to close out the regular season as they followed up their 61-75 loss at Colorado with a 59-98 loss at Utah.  While I know the Cougars will show up for the Pac-12 Tournament, the Sun Devils may have already packed it in.

The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as underdogs.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Sun Devils are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite.  Arizona State is 5-22-1 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Sun Devils are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games after five straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games after two or more consecutive losses.  Bet Washington State Wednesday.

20* NC State/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -2.5

The Syracuse Orange have been trying to play their way into the NCAA Tournament here down the stretch.  They've done a really good job of coming up clutch and have saved their best basketball for last.

Indeed, the Orange are 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Duke and Georgia Tech.  They are 2-0 SU against NC State this season with a 76-73 home win and a 77-68 road win.  It's not hard to beat a team three times in a season, either.

NC State is now getting too much respect from the books after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall despite not having their best player in Devon Daniels.  But only one of those wins came against a tournament team with wins over Notre Dame, Pitt (twice) and Wake Forest.  That's far from impressive.

Kevin Keatts is 4-12 ATS when revenging a home loss as the coach of NC State.  The Wolfpack are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday.

15* BYU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -14

Gonzaga will be highly motivated to cap off a perfect 26-0 season here and give themselves the opportunity to be the first team since Indiana to go the entire season with an unbeaten record by winning the NCAA Tournament.  Look for them to get the win and cover against BYU today for a number of reasons.

The biggest is that the Bulldogs made easy work of Saint Mary's yesterday in a 78-55 win as 18-point favorites.  They also got to play the early game, and then rest and watch BYU in the late game.  So they will have a rest and preparation advantage here over the Cougars.

Meanwhile, BYU trailed for 95% of the game against Pepperdine and needed a comeback to force overtime.  The Cougars eventually won 82-77 as 8.5-point favorites, but their starters were forced to play big minutes because of it.  They had five difference players play 30 minutes or more.  They were still playing at 2:30 AM EST, and now they have to try and get ready for the Bulldogs for a 9:00 PM EST tip.

Gonzaga beat BYU 86-69 at home and 82-71 on the road in the first two meetings.  Note that both of those games were bigger blowouts than the final score showed.  Gonzaga raced out to a 52-29 lead at halftime in that 17-point home win before calling off the dogs in the 2nd half.  Gonzaga then led BYU 70-49 with under 8 minutes left in the 2nd meeting.  The Cougars outscored them by 10 the rest of the way to only lose by 11.  I don't think the Bulldogs will leave the back door open in this third and final meeting of the season and will cruise to victory.

The Cougars are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as underdogs.  The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  The favorite is 16-6-4 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Gonzaga Tuesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have packed it in and are ready for their season to be over.  They have lost seven straight and are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off an 83-73 upset home win over Florida State that shows their potential here in the ACC Tournament.  They are the team that cares right now and the one that should win this game in blowout fashion similar to the 79-58 beat down they put on Wake Forest back on February 2nd in their lone meeting this season.

Wake Forest is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in six or more consecutive games.  The Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Notre Dame Tuesday.