Winning Sports Picks

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley +30

The Bradley Braves are simply catching too many points tonight against the Wichita State Shockers.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as massive 30-point underdogs in this contest.

Bradley could not possibly be more undervalued after its 3-17 start to the season.  But this team has been much more competitive in the last couple weeks.  It won 54-53 as 14-point road dogs at Loyola-Illinois on January 13, and in its last contest nearly upset Illinois State in a 52-55 loss as 11-point home dogs on January 20.

Wichita State could not be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the Shockers' lines higher than they should be as a result, which is evident by this ridiculous 30-point spread.

Wichita State beat Bradley 85-58 on the road in their first meeting this season, so the Shockers won't even show up tonight having already beaten the Braves by 27.  They can not show up and win, but they certainly can't cover this 30-point spread by not showing up with full effort.

Plays against favorites of 20 or more points (WICHITA ST) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Bradley Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois PK

I have backed Northern Illinois with a lot of success this season, but mostly only when they are at home.  This is one of the most improved teams in college basketball at 15-3 this season, and I believe they are the best team in the MAC, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers tonight as a pick 'em against Toledo.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.9 points per game.  It is 3-0 at home in conference play with wins over Ohio (by 11), Eastern Michigan (by 17) and Central Michigan (by 5), covering the spread in all three games as it was no more than a 3-point favorite in any of them.

Northern Illinois has had Toledo's number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings despite being an underdog in all four.  That includes a 71-66 win at Toledo on January 12 as 6.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  There's no way the Huskies should be a pick 'em at home in the rematch.  They should be in the neighborhood of 6.5-point favorites themselves.

The Huskies are 18-3 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last three seasons.  NIU is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 25-8-4 ATS in their last 37 MAC games.  Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with Northern Illinois Friday.

15* Rhode Island/George Washington A-10 ANNIHILATOR on George Washington -5

The George Washington Colonials are one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 this season.  They are 14-4 on the year and should be much heavier favorites over the Rhode Island Rams (11-7), who are just a middle-of-the-pack team in the conference.

George Washington has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball.  It is 10-0 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.2 points per game.  It has beaten the likes of Virginia (by 5), Seton Hall (by 8) and Duquesne (by 27) at home this season.  The Colonials are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games overall.

Rhode Island is 1-4 in true road games this season with losses to Nebraska, Old Dominion, St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure with three of those losses coming by 5 points or more.  The Rams' only road victory this season came at Brown (by 3) as 6.5-point favorites, which is far from impressive.

The home team has won three straight in this series.  The Colonials have won their last two home meetings with the Rams by 13 and 8 points.  Rhode Island is 2-13 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to George Washington.  The Colonials are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing the Colonials. Take George Washington Friday.

15* CBB Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Northeastern -3

The Northeastern Huskies are one of my favorite small school teams to follow.  They have beaten some major Division 1 programs through the years, and they have a strong team again this season with four returning starters and a ton of experience.

Northeastern is off to a 12-7 start this season that includes a 78-77 upset win at highly-ranked Miami as 16-point underdogs, as well as a 66-72 loss at NC State as 6.5-point dogs.  Those two results alone show what this team is capable of.

Hofstra is 12-6 this season against a much softer schedule.  Common opponents tell the story for me.  These teams have faced the same five teams this season.  Northeastern is 5-1 against those teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Hofstra is 3-2 against those five teams, outscoring them by only 4.2 points per game.

Northeastern simply owns Hofstra, going a perfect 8-0 SU since 2011 in the least eight meetings with its last seven victories all coming by 5 points or more.  The Huskies are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Pride.

Hofstra is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Northeastern Thursday.

15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Kentucky -2

The Kentucky Wildcats clearly aren't as strong as they have been in year's past.  But we're actually getting them at a great price tonight because of it, and we'll take advantage and back them as only 2-point road favorites over the Arkansas Razorbacks.

The Wildcats are 13-4 on the season.  They have bounced back with impressive wins every time they've lost this season, which is important because they are coming off a bad loss at Auburn.  Following a loss to UCLA, they beat Eastern Kentucky by 21.  Following a loss to Ohio State, they beat Louisville 75-73.  And following a loss to LSU, they beat Alabama 77-61 on the road.

Arkansas had to break in five new starters this season and is clearly down from its usual self as well.  The Razorbacks are just 9-8 on the season, losing to the likes of Akron, Georgia Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest and Mercer this season.  But they are being overvalued here because they have won three of their last four coming in, but those victories were against Missouri, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wildcats are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. SEC opponents.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -2

The Wyoming Cowboys are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Nevada Wolf Pack tonight in Mountain West action.  I look for them to roll to victory at home behind one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

Wyoming comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has won three of of those games straight up with home wins over Air Force (by 12) as 5-point favorites and UNLV (by 2) as 5-point underdogs, as well as an impressive road win at New Mexico (by 2) as 10-point dogs.

The Cowboys are 7-2 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 68-71 loss at Nevada as 5.5-point dogs on January 2.  Nevada is just 2-6 in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Pacific and Air Force.  It has lost its last three road games by 29, 12 and 22 points.

Wyoming is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nevada.  The Cowboys are 15-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Wolf Pack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +12

The West Virginia Mountaineers are way overvalued tonight as 12-point favorites over the Texas Longhorns.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire with the Longhorns easily staying within this double-digit spread.

What I love about this play is that Texas head coach Shaka Smart knows how to beat the press as he ran it all those years at Virginia Commonwealth.  So he'll have his team prepared to beat the WVU press, which has been excellent this season.

Texas comes in playing very well.  It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a single point.  It has beaten the likes of Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch.  The Longhorns are 11-6 on the season with their six losses coming by 6, 11, 6, 5, 8 and 1 point.  So, they haven't lost a game by more than 11 points all season, making for a 17-0 system backing them.

This is a very tough spot for the Mountaineers.  They are coming off back-to-back games against #3 Kansas and #1 Oklahoma, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following those two huge games against the top two teams int he conference.

Texas is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with West Virginia.  The Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  Bet Texas Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -3

The Northern Illinois Huskies are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are 14-3 on the season while winning seven of their last eight games overall.  Their 7-game winning streak ended with a loss at Western Michigan on Saturday, so they'll be motivated to get back on track tonight.

That shouldn't be a problem against a Central Michigan outfit that continues to get too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Chippewas are just 9-8 on the season with losses to the likes of Weber State and Grand Canyon.  They have blowout losses to Western Kentucky (by 28), BYU (by 13), Eastern Michigan (by 19) and Buffalo (by 13) to boot.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.3 points per game.  Bowling Green is just 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  The Falcons are allowing 79.6 points per game on 48% shooting away from home this year.  The Huskies are averaging 81.9 points on 47.7% shooting at home.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings, which includes two blowout wins by NIU by 18 and 25 points over CMU.  CMU's two home wins came by a combined 5 points.  The Huskies are 17-3 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.  The Huskies are 24-8-4 ATS in their last 36 conference games.  Take Northern Illinois Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green +2

The Bowling Green Falcons are the best team in the MAC in my opinion.  They should not be home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets tonight, and we'll gladly take advantage of this tremendous value in a game they should win outright.

The Falcons come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won by 15 at Cleveland State, by 31 at home to Oakland City, by 11 at home to Miami Ohio, by 16 as 10-point road dogs at Ohio, and by 5 as 8.5-point road dogs at Eastern Michigan during this stretch.

The Rockets have opened just 2-2 in conference play with an 18-point road loss at Ball State as 2-point favorites and a 5-point home loss to Northern Illinois as 6.5-point favorites.  They are just 3-3 in true road games this season with losses to Loyola-Illinois, Detroit and Ball State.  Their only three road wins have come against Youngstown State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Miami Ohio.

Bowling Green is 28-14 ATS in all games over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 11-2 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two years.  Toledo is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 road games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones will be out for revenge from their 83-87 road loss to Oklahoma in their first meeting of the season back on January 2nd.  I look for them to have that revenge behind one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball at Hilton Coliseum tonight.

Getting the Cyclones as only 1.5-point home favorites is a gift from oddsmakers.  They are undervalued right now because they already have three losses in Big 12 play.  But all have been close as they lost by 4 at Oklahoma, in overtime at Texas, and by 5 at home to Baylor for a very rare home loss.

The Cyclones are 8-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  Iowa State is 24-4 ATS in its last 28 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em.  Take Iowa State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in college basketball this season.  They are 13-3 on the year, and they had won five straight prior to a 69-80 road loss at Cincinnati as 10-point dogs last time out.  They'll be motivated to get back in the win column today.

I like their chances of doing just that at home against the UConn Huskies.  Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in lined home games this season.  It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.2 points per game at home this year.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings in this series.  We've seen Houston pull off the upset at home in each of its last two home meetings with UConn.  The Cougars won 70-68 in 2015 as 8.5-point home dogs and 75-71 in 2013 as 8.5-point home dogs.  History will repeat itself today.

The Huskies are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.  UConn is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  UConn is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games coming in over the last two years.  Roll with Houston Sunday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -3

The Illinois Fighting Illini are way undervalued right now due to their 9-8 start to the season.  But they haven't been healthy all year, and they're finally starting to get healthy, so this team is going to be a good bet going forward.

The Illini returned their leading scorer in Kendrick Nunn last time out and showed what they were capable of.  They crushed Purdue 84-70 at home as 9.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 23.5 points.  Now I look for them to roll Nebraska at home, too.

Nebraska has been a great home team in recent years, but an awful road team.  That has proven to be the case again this season as the Huskers are 1-3 in true road games with blowout losses to Villanova (by 24), Creighton (by 16) and Iowa (by 11).  Their only win came at lowly Rutgers.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings since 2012.  Illinois is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with Nebraska during this stretch with wins by 12, 11, 7 and 5 points.

Nebraska is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.  The Huskers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after scoring 80-plus points in two consecutive games.  Illinois is 9-1 ATS in home games off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Illini are 10-1 ATS after scoring 80-plus points over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +8.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  There's no way they should be catching 8.5 points on the road to Eastern Michigan, a team I believe they are better than and that will show today.

The Falcons are 11-5 on the season, including 4-1 in their last five games overall.  They have beat Cleveland State on the road by 15, Oakland City by 31 at home, Miami Ohio by 11 at home, and Ohio by 16 on the road as 10-point dogs during this stretch.

Eastern Michigan is just 2-2 in its last four games with a 5-point home loss to lowly North Florida and a 17-point road loss to Northern Illinois.  The Eagles are simply getting too much respect for their 7-1 home record.  They don't have a good home win yet as their seven victories have come against Vermont, Siena Heights, Marygrove, Madonna, Rochester College, Detroit and Buffalo.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 31% or less of their attempts over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -4

The San Francisco Dons are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this showdown with Loyola-Marymount.  There's no question in my mind that they are by far the superior team, and as a result we are getting them at a great value as only 4-point favorites.

San Francisco is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  It beat Pacific by 13 at home, Portland by 12 at home, and San Diego by 8 on the road.  Its two losses have come against arguably the two best teams in the WCC.  But it only lost by 8 at home to Gonzaga as 13.5-point dogs and by 10 on the road to BYU as 17-point dogs, proving that it can play with the two best teams in the conference.

Loyola-Marymount is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  It has lost by 27 at Portland, by 23 at Gonzaga, by 3 at Pepperdine, by 25 at home to St. Mary's, and by 2 at home to Pacific during this stretch.  It's clear that this team isn't anywhere near the level of the Dons by those results.

Common opponents really tell the story here for me.  These teams have six games played against common opponents already.  San Francisco is 4-2 against those teams with a dead even scoring differential.  Loyola-Marymount is 2-4 against those six teams and getting outscored by 12.3 points per game against them.

The Dons are 7-3 at home this season, while the Lions are 2-7 on the road.  San Francisco is 14-4 SU in its last 18 home meetings with Loyola-Marymount.  The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games.  The Dons are 55-23-1 ATS in their last 79 conference games.  The Lions are 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Dons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with San Francisco Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -4.5

The Utah Utes will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight.  They are 12-4 on the season, but they have opened 1-2 in conference play.  That's not the end of the world considering all three of their conference games have been on the road up to this point.

Now the Utes return to their home court where they are 8-0 on the season and outscoring teams by an average of 25.7 points per game.  This is a Utah team that has beaten Duke on a neutral court, so we know what it is capable of.  The Utes have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as they are 44-18-2 ATS in their last 62 home games.

Oregon has played well at home, but it has been a different story on the road.  Indeed, the Ducks have only played two true road games this season, and they lost both.  They lost 72-74 at Boise State as 2-point underdogs and 57-70 at Oregon State as 2-point favorites.  This team is getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight given those road results.

Oregon is 4-12 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.   Utah is a perfect 9-0 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game.  The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These last three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Utes.  Take Utah Thursday.

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -6.5

The Michigan State Spartans (16-1) want revenge on the Iowa Hawkeyes, who handed them their only loss of the season in the Big Ten opener.  The Spartans lost that game on the road as 3-point underdogs, so they were expected to lose.  I took the Hawkeyes in that game and won, but now I'm jumping ship and backing the Spartans in this revenge spot.

The difference in this game will be the fact that the Spartans will be playing with their best player in Denzel Valentine.  He missed the first meeting with an injury, and his presence has been felt since he returned.  The Spartans just crushed Penn State 92-65 on the road last time out in his return.  He played just 23 minutes and scored 10 points, and after shaking off the rust, look for him to be even more effective in his second game back.

The Hawkeyes are simply overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start within the Big Ten.  They did pick up a big win at Purdue, but their other two wins have both come at home against Nebraska and Michigan State sans Valentine.  I just don't believe the Hawkeyes are going to be able to match the intensity level of the Spartans in this one, and I look for them to get blown out the building.

Michigan State is a perfect 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Iowa dating back to 1997.  Iowa is 3-12 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  The Spartans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -4.5

I believe the Boise State Broncos are the best team in the Mountain West this season.  They have gotten off to a 12-4 start and are well on their way to winning the conference title.  Head coach Leon Rice continues to do a tremendous job with this program.

The Broncos are a perfect 9-0 in their last nine games overall with road wins at Portland (81-71) and at Utah State (76-61).  They have also beaten Oregon, Colorado State and Fresno State at home during this stretch to highlight some of their victories.

Nevada (10-6) is no better than a middle-of-the-pack team in the Mountain West.  The Wolf Pack have really struggled of late against the best teams that they've played.  They've lost three of their last five games coming in with a 69-98 blowout to Wichita State, a 76-88 blowout to New Mexico, and a 63-85 blowout to Fresno State.  Their only wins have come against Wyoming (by 3) and Air Force.

Boise State crushed Nevada 78-46 in their only meeting last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  Boise State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 vs. Mountain West foes.  The Wlf Pack are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Nevada is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Roll with Boise State Wednesday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston +10

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson welcomed back four starters this year, and it has led to a 13-2 season up to this point.

The Cougars have really upped their place in AAC play.  They are 3-0 within the conference with a 73-67 win at South Florida, a 77-50 win at Temple as 6-point dogs, and a 63-45 home win over Tulane.  This team is simply rolling right now, yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers.

Cincinnati is 12-5 on the season.  This team hasn't shown me enough to warrant being 10-point favorites over this solid Houston outfit in what I believe to be a very evenly-matched game.  The Bearcats have lost three of their last five games, including home losses to both Iowa State and Temple.  They also barely beat South Florida 54-51 on the road last time out as 15.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 1-8 ATS vs. good defensive teams who allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. AAC opponents.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -3.5

We are getting the Kansas State Wildcats at a tremendous price today as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  We'll take advantage and back the Wildcats, who are highly motivated for their first Big 12 victory of the season after three close calls.

Indeed, the Wildcats are 0-3 within the conference with a 4-point home loss to WVU, a 3-point road loss at Texas, and a 10-point road loss at Oklahoma as 12.5-point dogs.  But the Wildcats are 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.

The Red Raiders are getting a lot of love because they played both Iowa State and Kansas reasonably tough in their last two games.  But after an easy schedule to start the season, their true colors are starting to show, and they clearly aren't as good as their 11-3 record would indicate.  That will show again here tonight.

Kansas State has owned Texas Tech, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings with all 10 victories coming by 4 points or more.  The Wildcats are 6-0 in their last six home meetings with the Red Raiders with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  K-State is 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season.   The Red Raiders are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.  The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Bowling Green +10.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are simply catching too many points tonight against the Ohio Bobcats.  I'll gladly back them as double-digit underdogs in a game that they can win outright.  We'll just take the points for some added insurance.

The reason this line is so high is because Bowling Green (10-5) is coming off one of its worst performances of the season in a 67-79 home loss to Central Michigan.  The Falcons had won three straight games by double-digits prior to that defeat, so they aren't broken after one bad game.

Ohio (10-4) hasn't shown me anything to warrant being a double-digit favorite here.  It has a 5-point home win over Jackson State, a 7-point home win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an 11-point loss at Northern Illinois, and a 6-point home win over Ball State in four of its last five games coming in.

The Falcons owned the Bobcats in both meetings last season, winning 76-65 as 4-point road favorites and 69-54 as 7.5-point home favorites.  There's no way they should be double-digit dogs a year later in their first meeting of 2015.

The Falcons are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games.  Bowling Green is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 MAC games.  The Bobcats are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Bowling Green Tuesday.

15* Miami/Virginia ACC No-Brainer on Virginia -5

The Virginia Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Miami Hurricanes.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back road games at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, and now they'll be looking to avoid their first 3-game skid in nearly five years.  I like their chances to get back on track at home tonight.

Virginia has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  It is 12-0 in its last 12 home games, including 7-0 this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game at home this year.

There's no question that Miami is a quality team with its 13-1 record, but there's also no denying that it has benefited from an easy schedule.  In fact, the Hurricanes have only played on true road game all season.  That resulted in a lackluster 77-72 win at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers are one of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season.

Virginia clearly matches up well with Miami.  It won 89-80 on the road as 6.5-point favorites last year, and 65-40 at home as 10.5-point favorites in 2014.  The Cavaliers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Bet Virginia Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +7.5

The Detroit Titans have been awful on the road, but they've been a juggernaut at home this season.  They've gone a perfect 9-0 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 15.2 points per game.  I love the proposition of getting them as nice-sized home underdogs here to Valpo.

Detroit is certainly one of the best offensive teams in the country.  It is scoring 85.4 points per game overall, including 91.3 points per game on 49.6% shooting at home.  This team is going to be able to score on Valpo today.

All three of Valpo's losses this season have come on the road.  They lost 85-81 at Belmont, 67-73 at Oregon and 69-66 at Ball State, and they only beat Oregon State by 6 and Indiana State by 6 on the road, so they are vulnerable away from home.  We saw that last year as well as Detroit beat Valpo 63-60 at home as 4.5-point dogs.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Titans are 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Titans.  Roll with Detroit Sunday.

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +18

This is my favorite play in the WCC for the entire 2015-16 season.  This is a massive lookahead spot for BYU, which faces Gonzaga in its next game.  It will just be going through the motions to try and beat San Francisco today and not giving the kind of effort it's going to take to put away the Dones by 18-plus points.

San Francisco comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall with a 13-point win over Pacific, a 12-point win over Portland, and an 8-point road win at San Diego.  Its only loss came at home to Gonzaga by 8 points as 13.5-point dogs, so it has already proven it can play with the best team in this conference.

One thing that really stood out to me was how tough San Francisco has played BYU on the road in recent years.  The Dons are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to BYU.  They lost by 4 as 13-point road dogs last year, lost by 5 as 11.5-point dogs two years ago, and won by 12 outright as 14.5-point dogs three years ago.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dons are 98-58 ATS in their last 156 conference road games.  The Dons are 54-23-1 ATS in their last 78 WCC games overall.  San Francisco is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games.  The Cougars are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +8.5

The Miami Hurricanes are way overvalued right now due to their 12-1 start to the season.  They have covered five of their last six against the spread, so the betting public is all over them.  But they have certainly benefited from playing an easy schedule here of late as their last six opponents have been Charlotte, Florida, College of Charleston, LaSalle, Princeton and Syracuse with none of those being true road games.  It's simply time to fade the Hurricanes.

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory in this rivalry game.  They have opened 0-2 in ACC play with a 75-84 loss at Clemson and a 90-106 home loss to North Carolina in a game that was close until the final 10 minutes.  They will be playing with a little extra edge here today to try and get their first ACC victory.  This is still a quality team at 10-4 and one that will be a force in the ACC the rest of the way.

But what really stands out to me is the closely-contested nature of this series.  Indeed, each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less.  The Seminoles haven't lost to the Hurricanes by more than 6 points in any of the last five meetings.  So given the close nature of this series, getting 8.5 points is a ton of value.  Plus, the Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  These five trends combine for a 40-1 system backing the Seminoles.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

The Oklahoma Sooners are in a massive hangover spot Saturday.  They are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Kansas on Monday, and it's going to be hard for them to come back and give the kind of effort they played with in that game to try and pull off the upset, only to come up short.

Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Bruce Weber has this team playing some great basketball this year.  The Wildcats are 10-4 with all four of their losses coming by 10 points or less to some very good teams.  They lost by 10 to North Carolina on a neutral court, by 10 to Texas A&M on the road, by 4 at home to West Virginia, and by 3 at Texas.

But what really stands out is that Kansas State has had Oklahoma's number in recent years.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Sooners despite being underdogs in three of those.  Thy won both meetings last year with a 66-63 road win as 12-point dogs, and a 59-56 home win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  K-State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of its games.  The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  K-State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

The Vanderbilt Commodores are highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they travel to face the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks.  The Commodores have opened 0-2 in SEC play with an 8-point home loss to LSU and an overtime road loss to Arkansas.  They want to right the ship in a hurry.

I like their chances to get in the win column in SEC play Saturday because I still believe this is one of the best teams in the conference.  But they have lost a lot of close games here of late as five of their six losses have come by 8 points or less.

A big reason has been because they've been without one of their best players in Luke Kornet (9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for five games.  But Kornet returned against Arkansas last game and had 11 points and 8 rebounds.  His presence will be huge against South Carolina, and going forward.

South Carolina is certainly a feel-good story up to this point with its 14-0 start, but it has come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Gamecocks have only had to play two true road games this season and they haven't faced a ranked opponent all year.  They will be exposed for what they are, which is just a middle-of-the-pack SEC team,   against the best team they've faced in Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Commodores are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green -1

The Bowling Green Falcons are arguably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 10-4 start this year, which includes a 6-1 home record.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.

Central Michigan is just 7-7 and has had some very suspect performances this season.  It has losses to Weber State (by 3), Western Kentucky (by 28), Grand Canyon (by 3) and Eastern Michigan (by 19).  It also has ugly home wins over McNeese State (by 1) and Texas Southern (by 8).

But the most important stat going against the Chippewas is the fact that they are 0-6 in all road games this season.  Their defense has been horrible away from home as they are giving up 82.7 points per game and 48.7% shooting to opponents.  They just gave up 66% shooting in their 99-80 home loss to Eastern Michigan on Wednesday, so defense clearly is not a priority for them.  The Falcons have only allowed 55.0 points per game during their 3-game winning streak coming in.

Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 26-13 ATS in their alst 29 games overall.  The Chippewas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5

This is a massive letdown spot for the LSU Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 85-67 home win on National TV against #9 Kentucky on Tuesday.  There's no question they have been getting patted on the back over the last few days leading up to this game, and it will go to their heads, and they will not show up with the same intensity against Florida Saturday.

At the same time, this is a great spot to back the Gators.  They are coming off a bad 69-83 road loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, so they'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column when they return home, where they were last seen crushing Georgia 77-63 as 8-point favorites to open SEC play.

The Gators are 6-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by 21.5 points per game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in all road games this season, giving up 84.2 points per game away from home.  Florida has won four of its last five home meetings with LSU with all four victories coming by 12 points or more.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Johnny Jones is 4-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of LSU.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +5

The Tennessee Vols are a much better team than their 8-6 record would indicate.  Their six losses have all come on the road to Georgia Tech (by 2), George Washington (by 3), Nebraska (by 11), Butler (by 8), Gonzaga (by 7) and Auburn (by 6).

So, they've shown that they can play with the likes of George Washington, Butler and Gonzaga, which says all that you need to know about this team.  The Vols really showed what they were capable of when they beat Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday.  They improved to 8-0 at home this season with that huge victory.

Texas A&M is overrated due to playing a home-heavy schedule.  It has played just two true road games this season.  One was a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites, and the other was a narrow 61-60 road win at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites Wednesday night.  The Aggies shouldn't be favored on the road against the Vols today based off those two performances, especially considering the Vols haven't lost at home this year.

One of my favorite trends that I always look for with Tennessee is that it is 32-9 ATS in its last 41 games as a home underdog or pick 'em.  Better yet, the Vols are 27-6 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +13.5

The Michigan State Spartans have looked pedestrian without their best player in Denzel Valentine, who will miss this game as well.  They needed overtime to beat Oakland on a neutral court, lost by 13 at Iowa, and had a hard-fought 69-61 win over a sub-.500 Minnesota team in their last three games without him.

Illinois has proven that it is not intimidated by facing the Spartans at the Breslin Center.  In fact, the Fighting Illini have won each of their last two trips to Michigan State.  They won 59-54 as 9.5-point road underdogs last season, and 53-46 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2014.

Illinois had won five straight games before opening 0-2 in Big Ten play.  But they lost by 10 to Michigan and by 2 at Ohio State, so they have been competitive to open conference play.  Now the Fighting Illini will be extra motivated to get that first Big Ten victory.  While they may not get it, it's certainly reasonable to think that they'll stay within 13 points of the Spartans tonight.

The Fighting Illini are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Michigan State.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Illinois Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy State +11.5

The Georgia State Panthers made some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year due to the heroics of RJ Hunter, who is now gone.  They are now overvalued after that recognition as they only brought back one starter from that team.

Georgia State has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, but it has been far from impressive.  Its best wins have come at home against Old Dominion (by 4) and Middle Tennessee (by 2).  This team is simply laying too many points here tonight.

Troy is only 5-8, but I have been impressed with how well this team has played on the road this season.  It is 1-2 in true road games with a 12-point win over North Texas, a 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 15.5-point underdogs, and a 3-point loss at Ole Miss as 3-point dogs.  To compare, Georgia State lost by 9 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point dogs earlier this year.  Seven of the Trojans' eight losses this season have come by 9 points or less.

The Trojans have played the Panthers very tough on the road in recent meetings.  They lost 72-77 as 19.5-point rod dogs last year and 72-81 as 16-point dogs in 2014.  The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Trojans are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Troy is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off two consecutive home losses.  Take Troy Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +20

San Jose State was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year.  But this is now one of the most improved teams in the land in 2015-16.  The Spartans are 5-9 and fully capable of staying within 20 points of the San Diego State Aztecs, who haven't been as good as in year's past.

All nine of San Jose State's losses this season have come by 20 points or fewer.  That includes a 7-point loss at Air Force as 9-point road dogs and an 18-point loss at Marquette as 21.5-point dogs.  Considering the Spartans have played 14 games this season and haven't lost by more than 20 once, that's a 14-0 system backing them based on this 20-point spread.

San Diego State likely won't be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  It is just 9-6 on the year with some ugly losses and wins this year.  It lost to West Virginia by 22 on a neutral court, and it was also upset at home by both Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and Grand Canyon (by 7) in a game that didn't even have a line.

SDSU is 5-15 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Aztecs are 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7

Mississippi State is a team that I've had my eye on all season.  This is a squad that returned four starters from last year under the guidance of first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours back in his prime.

As I expected, the Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they've gone 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games.  They've been an especially profitable bet at home by going 5-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off three straight blowout wins over Tulane (by 10), Northern Colorado (by 24) and NC Central (by 23) and are chomping at the bit to play their first SEC game in front of their home crowd tonight.

Texas A&M is a highly ranked team this season and it is overvalued as a result of its 11-2 start.  While the Aggies have played some tough teams, they have actually only played one true road game all season.  That ended in a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5

The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen.  The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.

Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7).  Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.

UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall.  This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit.  UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.

Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5

This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.

While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home.  In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.

With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season.  Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game.  Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.

Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game.  EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers.  I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.

Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play.  They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.

The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).

Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2

The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.

The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season.  They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games.  They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.

The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason.  Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him.  They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.

St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season.  The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks.  Take St. Joe's Tuesday.

15* UNC/FSU ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +3

I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here tonight in this game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.  I'll gladly back the home underdog Seminoles, who are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Florida State's three losses this season have all come by single-digits and all on the road, including an overtime loss at Iowa.  This is a team that won 73-71 at Florida as 5-point dogs in its ACC opener.  The Seminoles are 5-0 at home this season, winning by 23.6 points per game.

North Carolina is more vulnerable than most expected it would be coming into the season.  The Tar Heels are 0-2 in true road games this season with losses at Northern Iowa and at Texas, which are two teams that aren't as good as Florida State.  They weren't impressive in their two ACC home games this season with an 11-point win over Clemson as 15.5-point favorites and an 8-point win over GA Tech as 14.5-point favorites, either.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being called for 5-plus more fouls than their opponents in two straight games.  Roll with Florida State Monday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued right now due to their 11-0 start to the season.  But their only significant win came against Villanova on a neutral court, otherwise they've played a very soft schedule outside of that game.

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a bad loss to Northern Iowa.  But everything that could go wrong, did, as the Cyclones allowed 58% shooting as Northern Iowa simply could not miss from 3-point range.  But that loss has grounded this team, and they came back with a huge 81-79 upset win at Cincinnati as 5-point dogs their next time out.

Iowa State has won four of its last six meetings with Oklahoma with only one of its two losses coming by more than this 8-point margin.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9

The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State.  That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.

Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents.  The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1.  They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points.  Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11

The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  This is simply too many points today folks.

The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start.  They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida.  But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.

The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2.  I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.

The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +7.5

The Providence Friars are one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 12-1 start this season behind three absolute studs in Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Kris Dunn (16.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 7.3 apg) and Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg).

The only loss the Friars have suffered this year came against #1 Michigan State by 13 on a neutral court.  But they have beaten both Evansville (by 10) and Arizona (by 4) on a neutral court, as well as Rhode Island (by 2) and UMass (by 24) in its two true road games this season.  I really like what I've seen from the Friars and believe that they will give Butler a run for its money today.

Butler is also a solid team at 11-1 this season, but it should not be favored by 7.5 points here.  It comes in overvalued due to three straight ATS wins.  Tennessee only lost by 8 at Butler, which was the toughest opponent that the Bulldogs have faced at home this year.  They struggled to beat Temple (by 5) and lost to Miami (by 10) on a neutral court this year.

I really believe that home-court advantage means nothing in this series when you look at recent results.  The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Providence won 66-62 at Butler as 6-point dogs last season and 87-81 as 1.5-point dogs two years ago.  The Friars have actually won three of the last four meetings with their only loss coming by 4 points.

The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5

The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve.  This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention.  They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was.  So far, so good as far as proving it.

The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games.  They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8).  They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court.  And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home.  Those results show that they are the real deal.

Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2.  But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests.  The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road.  They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.

Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall.  I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it.  The Musketeers will also be the fresher team.  They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.

The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should not be underdogs here.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5

The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener.  I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.

Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU.  Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.

The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game.  They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points.  UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season.  Roll with Bradley Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3

The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans.  They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.

Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3.  So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.

Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him.  They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes.  They aren't going to get that again from him.

Iowa has really impressed me this season.  It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home.  Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83).  It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.

The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans.  They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten.  Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.

Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State.  Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5

This one is pretty simple folks.  The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month.  After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.

Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate.  The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2).  All six of those losses came on the road.

The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6).  It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.

Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bruins will have their revenge tonight.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5

This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners.  This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year.  Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.

The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going.  They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7.  The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.

That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight.  Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday.  They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST.  Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.

Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1.  That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average.  Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8.  That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.

That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game.  But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark.  This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night.  That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* Kansas/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas -6.5

Northing is certainly except death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are once again the best team in arguably the best conference in the country.  This team is a little different in that it finally has some experience with four returning starters from last year.  The Jayhawks are on a mission to finish the deal this year.

They are off to a 9-1 start with their only loss coming to top-ranked Michigan State by a final of 73-79 on a neutral court.  They led that game the whole way, too, but allowed the Spartans to come back.  They rest of their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 6 points or more.   They are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game on the season.

The Jayhawks score 89.8 points against teams that allow 73.1, and they allow 66.1 against teams that score 73.4.  That's roughly a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.  San Diego State is scoring 65.7 points per game against teams that allow 69.3, and allowing 59.3 against teams that score 70.2.  That's a plus-7 mark.  Kansas has played a tougher schedule, so it should be at least a 17-point favorite against SDSU on a neutral court.  Factor in the home floor for the Aztecs, and the Jayhawks should be a 13 to 14-point favorite here.

There are several performances by the Aztecs this year that lead me to believe that they can't hang with the Jayhawks.  They lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and at home to Grand Canyon (by 7).  There wasn't even a line on that Grand Canyon game as they were expected to blow them out.  They also lost to West Virginia (by 22) on a neutral court.  This is a team that has already lost five games and isn't as good as in year's past under head coach Steve Fisher.

Two seasons ago, SDSU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season with a 61-57 win at Kansas as 10.5-point underdogs.  This veteran Jayhawks team that returned four starters this year remembers that loss, and it will certainly want to exact some revenge this year.
 
San Diego is 0-12 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  For whatever reason, Fisher hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well with good rest coming into games.  Take Kansas Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -7

The Xavier Musketeers have been the most underrated team in the country this season.  They made the Elite 8 last year, but everyone felt like they got lucky.  The Musketeers have been making a point to prove that it was no fluke and that they are a legitimate Final Four contender this year.

Indeed, they are off to an 11-0 start this season and have left almost everyone in the dust.  They are outscoring teams by 18.8 points per game.  They are scoring 81.7 points per game against teams that allow 68.9, and giving up 62.9 points per game against teams that score 73.4.  That's essentially a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Let's highlight some of their wins just to show how good they really are.  They won by 16 in a true road game at Michigan, by 19 on a neutral court over Alabama, by 10 on a neutral court over USC, by 29 on the neutral court against Dayton, and by 10 at home against Cincinnati.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are off to an 8-2 start this season, but they are only outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  They score 79.7 points per game against teams that allow 72.1, but they give up 78.8 points per game against teams that score 77.8.  That's only a plus-7 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Both teams have played equal schedules, so the Musketeers' plus-24 mark over the Demon Deacons' plus-7 mark means the Musketeers should be favored by 17 on a neutral court.  That also means they should be favored by 13-14 at Wake Forest, yet this line is only -7.

The Demon Deacons have been beaten badly at home against Richmond (by 9) and on a neutral court against Vanderbilt (by 22).  They also have narrow home wins this season over MD-Balt County (by 5), Arkansas (by 3), UNC-Greensboro (by 10) and Coastal Carolina (by 6).  Those performances don't lead me to believe that they can even keep this game close against arguably the best team in the country in Xavier.

Xavier is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Musketeers.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +4.5

The 11th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones needed a wake-up call.  They started the season 9-0 but gave lackluster efforts in the first 30 minutes of most of their games before turning it on in the final 10.  That was evident in an 83-82 win over Iowa in which they trailed by 20 points in the second half.

In their last game, the Cyclones trailed most the way against Northern Iowa and again made a comeback.  But it fell just short as they lost 79-81.  Now, everything went right for Northern Iowa as it shot 58% from the floor, including an unlikely 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range.  That's what it took to beat a team as good as the Cyclones.

But after getting that wake-up call, I expect to see the best effort of the season from the Cyclones tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They have shown what they're capable of when they have their foot on the gas in the final 10 minutes of games, and now I expect to see that effort over a full 40 minutes now that they finally lost a game.

Cincinnati has lost to the two best teams it has played in Xavier (lost by 10) and Butler.  It doesn't really have many good wins as its best victories have come against Nebraska (by 4), George Washington (by 5) and VCU (by 6).  While I expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, the +4.5 could certainly come into play if it's close late.

Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson.  They returned four starters this year and were going to be better, but not many saw this 8-1 start coming.  They continue to be undervalued here as only 2-point favorites over Grand Canyon in this Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas.

The Cougars have been rolling this season, averaging 85.6 points and 49.4% shooting offensively, while giving up 69.2 points and 43.1% shooting defensively.  They are outscoring foes by 16.4 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Rhode Island, and they've beaten the likes of LSU and Murray State.

Grand Canyon has certainly played well under head coach Dan Majerle.  It is 9-2 on the season, but that has come against a very easy schedule.  This is a team that lost 63-111 to Louisville.  But Grand Canyon comes in overvalued off a huge upset win at San Diego State on Friday, which sets it up for a letdown spot here.

The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Antelopes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Houston Monday.

15* Davidson/Pitt ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5

The Pitt Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-1 start with their only loss coming to Purdue, which is 11-1 on the season.  The numbers this team is putting up are very impressive and certainly lead me to believe they will win this game against Davidson by more than five points.

Jamie Dixon returned four starters and has his best team in years.  The Panthers are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game this season.  They score 85.3 points per game against teams that give up 75.3 points per game, and they give up 61.6 points per game against teams that average 73.9.  That's roughly a plus-24 point edge against what their opponents average.

Davidson is also off to a solid 7-1 start, but this team has feasted on an easy schedule.  Its seven wins have come against UCF (by 5), College of Charleston (by 1), Mercer (by 6), Denison (by 13), Charlotte, (by 35), Eastern Washington (by 10), and Western Carolina (by 33).  As you can see, the Wildcats have won a lot of close games this year.

In their toughest game of the season, the Wildcats were thoroughly overmatched at North Carolina in a 65-98 road loss as 15-point dogs.  UNC is a better team than Pitt, but it's not that far off.  The Panthers are a real force to be reckoned with in the ACC this season.

Davidson is scoring 13 more points than its opponents give up on average, but it is giving up 2 more points than its opponents average.  That's a plus-11 point edge against what its opponents average.  Compare that to Pitt's plus-24 point edge, and I would make the Panthers 13-point favorites on a neutral court.  Well, this is on a neutral court, and the Panthers should be heavier favorites.

These teams do have a common opponent in Eastern Washington.  Davidson only beat Eastern Washington 96-86 as 16.5-point home favorites.  Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington 84-51 as 19-point home favorites.  So, the Wildcats only won by 10 while the Panthers won by 33.  This is another sign that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Davidson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These four trends make for a combined 24-1 system going against the Wildcats.  Bet Pitt Sunday.

15* Baylor/Texas A&M ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -2.5

The Baylor Bears are off to a 7-1 start because they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played seven of their first eight games at home.  In their lone road game, they lost 67-74 at Oregon.  This will be just their second true road game of the season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are the real deal this season.  They are off to an 8-2 start despite playing a brutal schedule.  They have already faced the likes of Texas, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Arizona State all on the road, while also beating Kansas State by 10 at home.  They beat Texas and Gonzaga with their two losses coming to Syracuse and ASU.

So, the Aggies are clearly battle-tested due to the schedule they've been up against.  The Bears are not battle-tested at all.  I'll gladly back the better team that has played tougher competition up to this point, especially when that team is playing at home and laying only 2.5 points.  The Aggies are 6-0 at home this year, beating teams by 25.8 points per game.

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 9-2 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two years.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Aggies also have a nice scheduling advantage as they last played 7 days ago while the Bears last played 3 days ago.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

Last year was a rebuilding year for the Saint Louis Billikens, who had to break in five new starters and managed to go just 11-21.  That was a rare down year for this program and head coach Jim Crews, who is still 71-39 in his three-plus seasons here even after that disaster.

But the Billikens are vastly improved this season thanks to four returning starters and much better experience.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season.  They opened 4-0 with four straight wins by double-digits before running into the brutal portion of their schedule.

They have lost four of their last five, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those losses came to Louisville, Morehead State and Wichita State.  The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in four straight lined games, which also has them undervalued, especially after an upset loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out.

Indiana State is just 4-6 this season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is a team that already has losses at home to IUPUI and on the road to Eastern Illinois.  Its four wins have come against Wyoming, Norfolk State, Hofstra and Illinois-Springfield.  The Sycamores don't have a quality win yet.

This has been a one-sided series as Saint Louis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  It has home wins by 9 and 17 points, as well as a 13-point road win last year.  And we know how down the Billikens were last season, yet they went on the road and beat the Sycamores 69-56 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Sycamores are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.  Indiana State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +1

The Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday in a huge in-state clash.  I believe the wrong team is favored here as the Hoosiers will run away with this one as 1-point underdogs.

Indiana is off to an 8-3 start this season against a brutal schedule.  It has already had to face the likes of Creighton, Wake Forest, UNLV and Duke.  Two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The only blowout loss came at Duke, and nobody wins in Durham.  But since that loss, the Hoosiers have reeled off three straight blowout victories by 33, 25 and 45 points.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed me at all this season.  Its best wins have come against Iowa (by 6) and Illinois (by 5).  It has lost to the likes of Monmouth and Alabama this season.  The Fighting Irish lost their two best players from last year, and they just aren't as good as they were a year ago when they made a run to the Elite 8.

Indiana returned four starters and brought in one of the best recruits in the country in Thomas Bryant.  Bryant (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has played well in his rookie season.  But three returning starters in Yogi Ferrell (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg), James Blackmon (16.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) are all playing lights out.  This is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Villanova/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and one of the best teams in the country this season.  Their only loss came on the road against a tough George Washington team in their second game of the season by 5 points.  They have rolled in all other games.

Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 15 points or more.  The lone exception was a 6-point road win at Ohio State.  They just beat West Virginia by 16 as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  What's most impressive about this start is that six of the nine games have been played on the road.

The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game on the season.  Their defense has been suffocating once again as they allow 57.1 points per game against teams that average 69.7.  Their offense is improved as they put up 76.3 points against teams that give up 68.

Villanova is off to an identical 8-1 start.  The difference is that the Wildcats have played an easier schedule with just four road games compared to five at home.  They have beaten Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joe's on the road, but in their biggest game of the season up to this point, they were destroyed 55-78 by Oklahoma.  A similar fate will be in store for the Wildcats tonight.

Tony Bennett is 8-1 ATS in home games off two straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are coming back to win by 23.5 points per game on average in their next game.  The Cavaliers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Saturday games.  The Cavaliers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +12.5

The Long Beach State 49ers have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball in the early going.  They have played a brutal schedule with 12 games in less than a month against great competition, and they've managed to get through it with a 6-6 record straight up and a 7-2 ATS mark in all lined games.

The 49ers have only been blown out once this season, and that came against Virginia.  Five of their six losses have all come by 7 points or less to Oklahoma State (by 5), San Diego State (by 4), UCLA (by 7), Pepperdine (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 6) again.  Four of those five losses came on the road.

The 49ers have some great wins to their name as well.  They have beaten BYU as 3.5-point dogs, Seton Hall as a4.5-point dogs, Colorado State as 8-point dogs, and New Mexico State (by 14) as 1-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played such a tough schedule.

Oregon is off to an 8-2 start this season an is laying a few too many points here as a result.  The Ducks have narrow wins over Baylor (by 7), Valpo (by 6) and Fresno State (by 5) all at home this year.  They have also lost to Boise State (by 2) on the road and UNLV (by 11) on a neutral court.

This is a good spot for the 49ers, who have finally had some rest coming into this one.  They have had five days off in between games having last played in an 87-60 home win over Tampa U on December 12.  The Ducks, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have had just two days off since their 15-point win over UC-Irvine on Tuesday.

Oregon has made a living off of forcing turnovers this season and getting easy baskets off of them.  The Ducks force 16 turnovers per game this year.  That makes this a great matchup for Long Beach State, which only turns the ball over 11 times per game while forcing 15 turnovers per game of their own.

This game has special meaning for Long Beach State head coach, Dan Monson.  His father, Don Monson, coached at Oregon from 1984-92.  There's no question he will have his team ready to go for this one as he tries to beat his father's former school.

Long Beach State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Roll with Long Beach State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall +20.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are simply catching too many points tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers in this in-state showdown.  We'll gladly take the 20.5 points in what will be a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

That was certainly the case last year when Marshall nearly upset West Virginia in a 66-69 loss as 17.5-point underdogs.  This has been a very closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last 18 meetings have been decided by 16 points or less dating back to 1998.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Thundering Herd when you factor in this 20.5-point spread.  A whopping 14 of those 18 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer as well.

After an 0-6 start, the Thundering Herd have been playing up to their capabilities here of late with three straight wins by 6, 24 and 19 points coming in.  They are a group that is used to playing at a frantic pace under second-year head coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of Mike D'Antoni.  West Virginia is a pressing team that likes to force opponents to play faster, and that plays right into Marshall's hands.  Roll with Marshall Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3.5

I really like this Richmond team that returned four starters from last year.  The Spiders have gotten off to a 6-3 start this season with two of their losses coming on the road to WVU and Florida.  They have beaten the likes of Wake Forest (by 9), California (by 4) and Northern Iowa (by 15), so they have certainly played a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Old Dominion Monarchs have gone just 4-5 this season.  They have played some tough teams as well, but they certainly haven't played a tougher schedule than Richmond.  The Monarchs have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 in all road games while getting outscored by 8.8 points per game.  They are scoring just 56.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting on the road.  To compare, the Spiders are scoring 86.2 points and shooting 51.5% at home.

The one thing that stands out to me is that Richmond simply does not lose to Old Dominion at home.  It is a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home meetings with ODU, which dates all the way back to 1998.  With a spread of only 3.5, the Spiders essentially just have to win this game to cover.  That shouldn't be a problem.

Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in road games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  Take Richmond Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Drexel +17.5

The Drexel Dragons are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start to the season.  At the same time, the South Carolina Gamecocks are overvalued due to their 8-0 start this season.  This has created the perfect storm and an inflated line that we'll take advantage of here.

The Dragons aren't nearly as poor as their record.  This is a team that returned four starters from last year.  But the Dragons have lost some close games this season as five of their six losses have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 3-point loss to San Diego.

But this team is playing much better coming in, and they're coming off their best performance of the season.  They went on the road and beat a quality LaSalle team 66-53 as 7.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 20.5 points.  I look for them to build off that win and to give South Carolina a run for its money tonight.

The Gamecocks have benefited from playing about as easy of a schedule as you could find.  Their eight wins have come against Norfolk State, Oral Robers, DePaul, Hofstra, Tulsa, Lipscomb, Western Carolina and South Florida.  They have yet to play a true road game this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 18 points or less, too.

Both teams are playing with 9 days rest in between games, but the Gamecocks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 7 or more days rest.  Head coach Frank Martin is a general-type coach, and these Gamecock players probably haven't enjoyed the last nine days of practice time.  South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons.  The Dragons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Gamecocks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Drexel Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a tremendous home team and an awful road team under current head coach Tim Miles.  Getting them as only 1-point home favorites over Rhode Island today is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Nebraska has gone 5-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 19.3 points per game.  The Huskers' only home loss came by a final of 72-77 to Miami as 5.5-point dogs.  The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskers are 6-4 this season with their four losses all coming to very good teams in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton.

Rhode Island is off to a 6-3 start this year, but its six wins have come against American, Cleveland State, TCU, Rider, Holy Cross and Houston.  The Rams were a promising team this year until E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury.  He was their best player last year, averaging 16.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  Without him, this is just a slightly above-average team.

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Nebraska is 49-31 ATS in its last 80 home games off a road loss.  Miles is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Nebraska.  Miles is 11-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Nebraska.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +13

The Butler Bulldogs are laying a few too many points today to the Tennessee Vols.  This is a Tennessee team that beat Butler 67-55 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad for first-year head coach Rick Barnes.

The Vols are just 4-3 this season, but they really haven't been blown out yet as their three losses came by 2 at Georgia Tech, by 3 on the road to George Washington, and by 11 to Nebraska.  The Vols have not played since November 28th, so they have had a lot of time to prepare for Butler.  They know the Bulldogs inside and out having two weeks to get ready for them.  You can bet they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on thefloor.

Butler has had some lackluster performances this season that would make it hard for me to envision it covering this 13-point spread.  After all, the Bulldogs only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 16 as 29.5-point home favorites, and Indiana State by 14 as 17-point home favorites.  Tennessee is more than capable of staying within 13 and possibly pulling off the upset.

Tennessee is 13-3 ATS versus teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Vols are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home loss.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN2 Rivalry Play on Iowa State -7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season and they are one of the most fun teams to watch because they share the ball so well.  They average 18 assists per game, including 21 at home.

They have a ton of balance with five players averaging at least 12.9 points.  Abdel Nader has averaged 16.3 in the past four, and Monte Morris has scored at least 12 in every game while leading the Big 12 with 7.3 assists per game. Jameel McKay is one of two Big 12 players averaging a double-double (13.9 points, 11.6 rebounds).

Iowa State's numbers at both ends of the floor are off the charts.  It is putting up 86.9 points per game and 51.7% shooting against teams that give up 71.7 points and 43.5% shooting.  Defensively, it is giving up 66.6 points per game and 38.3% shooting against teams that average 77.7 points and 44.3% shooting.

Iowa is a quality team from the Big Ten, but it has lost to the two best teams it has faced in Dayton and Notre Dame. This will also be just the second true road game of the season for the Hawkeyes.  They were crushed 75-90 at home by the Cyclones last year, and they don't stand much of a chance of keeping this one close in Ames this time around.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these teams by an average of 21.3 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Iowa State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -3.5

This is a very generous line we're getting here on the Illinois Fighting Illini as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Yale Bulldogs.  We'll take advantage in what should result in a blowout victory for the home team tonight.

Illinois is undervalued right now because it is off to just a 4-5 start this season.  But it has been playing much better of late.  It has won three of its last five.  Its only two losses came to Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Illini played Iowa State tough before giving way late in an 11-point loss.  They only lost by 5 to Notre Dame.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Western Carolina, and they also beat a good UAB by 14 points during this stretch.

Yale has gotten off to a 5-3 start this season.  Its five wins have come against Fairfield, Sacred Heart, Lehigh, Bryant and Vermont.  It has lost all three of its toughest games, including a 19-point loss to Duke and a 34-point loss to Albany.

Illinois is 9-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds in its previous game over the last two seasons.  Illinois is 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last two years.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Roll with Illinois Wednesday.

20* Maryland/UConn ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Maryland -2

The Maryland Terrapins are one of the best teams in the country.  Most of the preseason media outlets picked either Maryland or North Carolina as the No. 1 ranked teams in the country.  It's hard to argue those rankings with what I've seen from both teams thus far.

Maryland is off to a 7-1 start this season, outscoring teams by 14.9 points per game.  It has beaten some quality opponents like Georgetown and Rhode Island.  Its only loss this season came as an 8-point road underdog to those North Carolina Tar Heels.  The Terrapins lost that game 81-89 and hung very tough in a hostile atmosphere.  Keep in mind that the Tar Heels got back their best player in Marcus Paige in time for that game.

Connecticut is certainly an improved team this season after missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  But this Huskies squad hasn't been able to beat the best competition they have faced.  They are 5-2 this season with losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse.  They did beat Michigan, but that win isn't that great considering Michigan lost to Xavier at home by 16.

Mayrland has received solid play from returning starters Melo Trimble (14.4 ppg, 5.8 apg) and Jake Layman (11.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg).  But the biggest reason for the hype from this team was the additions of Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter and Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon.  Both Carter (13.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and Sulaimon (11.6 ppg, 52.9% 3-pointers) have lived up to the hype.

The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.  MarkTurgeon is 50-26 ATS in non-conference road games in all games he has coached.  Turgeon is 8-1 ATS in neutral court games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points as the coach of the Terrapins.  Take Maryland Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Villanova Battle of Unbeatens on Oklahoma +4.5

The Oklahoma Sooners come in as the No. 6 ranked team in the country, while the Villanova Wildcats come in as the No. 8 ranked team.  This is one of the biggest early-season non-conference games in college basketball.  But I believe the Sooners are the better team and should not be underdogs.

Oklahoma returned four starters from last year and is a legitimate threat to win the Big 12 this season.  I certainly like what I've seen from this team en route to a 5-0 start.  The Sooners went on the road and beat a very good Memphis team 84-78.  They also crushed Wisconsin 65-48 at home.  Both of those teams are better than anything that Villanova has faced thus far.

Villanova is off to a 7-0 start this season with its seven wins coming against Farleigh Dickinson, Nebraska, East Tennessee State, Akron, Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joseph's.  This will by far the toughest test for the Wildcats yet.  They only returned two starters this season and are clearly overvalued due to their 5-1 ATS record in the early going.

Buddy Hield is a National Player of the Year candidate.  He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game while shooting 47.2% from the field and 50.0% from 3-point range.  Head coach Lon Kruger has stated that this is the hardest-working team he's every been around, and that's a huge statement for a guy with his credentials.  The other three returning starters happen to be their next-three highest scorers in Isaiah Cousins (13.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Ryan Spangler (12.6 ppg, 9.4 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - after two consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent after two straight covers as a double digit favorite are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1997.  Okalhoma is 7-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning in these spots by 19.5 points per game.  Take Oklahoma Monday.

15* Long Beach/UCLA CBB Sunday Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +11

This is strictly a spot play.  I am going to fade the UCLA Bruins because their are coming off their biggest win in the Steve Alford era over No. 1 Kentucky on Thursday.  They beat the Wildcats 87-77 at home.  It's only human nature for a team to come out flat after such a big win, and that's what I expect from these Bruins tonight.

Yes, I realize this is also a tough spot for Long Beach State, which will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  But I've seen enough from this team to know that it is fully capable of staying within 11 points of the Bruins, and possibly pulling off the upset.

In fact, Long Beach State has managed to go 5-4 against a brutal schedule.  It has beaten the likes of BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State, which are four quality teams.  Its four losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State (twice) by 5 and 6 points, and San Diego State (by 4).  No team in the country has faced a tougher schedule than LBS, yet they've only lost one game by more than 6 points this season.

Plays on neutral court teams as an underdog (LONG BEACH ST) - after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  LBS beat Colorado State 83-77 as 8-point road dogs and New Mexico State 67-53 as 1-point home favorites.  Look for the solid play to continue tonight in a potential upset bid of the Bruins.  Roll with Long Beach State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on UMass -1.5

I believe UMass (5-1) is a much better team than Ole Miss (5-2) and should be a heavier favorite today.  This is essentially a home game for the Minutemen to boot, at will be played at the MassMutual Center in Springfield, MA.

UMass beat a very good Clemson team 82-65 as 7.5-point underdogs to really open my eyes.  It is coming off a 30-point win over Boson last time out.  But the  numbers tell the story for me.  UMass is averaging 83.3 points against teams that only allow 73.4 points, and it is allowing 72.5 points against teams that average 76.5.  That's the sign of a very good team.

Ole Miss already has a 6-point loss to George Mason and a 12-point loss to Seton Hall, both on neutral courts, which are two average teams that aren't as good as UMass.  Ole Miss is only a slightly better-than-average team when you look at the numbers.  It is putting up 72.6 points per game against teams that allow 70.6, and allowing 66.3 points per game against teams that score 69.7 on average.

The Minutemen have three absolute studs that carry them every game.  Jabarie Hinds (19.7 ppg, 5.5 apg), Trey Davis (18.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Donte Clark (16.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) are the best trio in the Atlantic 10 in my book.  All three are deadly from 3-point range.  Hinds shoots 48.6%, Davis 47.4% and Clark 38.9%.   It's no wonder this team is putting up over 83 points per game this year.

UMass is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games.  The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Rebels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Nevada +10.5

Nevada is certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  It returned four starters from last year and is off to a 5-2 start this season.  Its two losses have come to Hawaii and CS-Fullerton both on the road by a combined 10 points.  The Wolf Pack have five players scoring in double figures, and seven players averaging at least 8.6 points, so they play team basketball.

The numbers show to me that Nevada can hang with this Oregon State outfit.  Nevada is averaging 80.9 points per game against teams that allow 75.6, and it is giving up 68.7 points per game against teams that score 74.9 on average.  Those are some impressive numbers to say the least.

Oregon State is too reliant on one player for my liking.  Gary Payton II is a great player, but he is asked to do too much for this team.  The Bears are scoring 75.2 points per game against teams that allow 73, and they are allowing 64.3 against teams that average 69.8.  Solid numbers, but not quite as good as what Nevada has done.  If anything, you could argue that Nevada is the better team, yet it is catching double-digit points.

The Beavers are 1-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Beavers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Oregon State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Roll with Nevada Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +8

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd returned four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg LY) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

It hasn't been the best start for the Herd, who are 0-4 thanks to a brutal schedule.  They have played three road games already and were an underdog of 13.5, 11.5 and 7.5 points in those games.  They were also a 3-point home underdog to James Madison.  They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, which has them undervalued coming into this game.  The Herd will be highly motivated to get their first win of the season, and I believe they have a great chance to get it against Akron.

Akron is off to a 5-2 start this season, which includes a win over Arkansas.  But Akron only beat Coppin State 77-71 at home last time out, which was on Wednesday night.  That means Akron has only had one day in between games to get ready for Marshall, and that's not enough time to prepare for D'Antoni's fast-paced system.  That scheduling disadvantage is a great a reason as any to fade the Zips tonight.

Marshall played Akron extremely tough in its last two meetings.  It lost 70-63 on the road last season as 12.5-point underdogs, and 58-59 on the road two seasons ago as 11.5-point dogs.  So, the Herd will also be out for revenge from those two losses by a combined eight points to the Zips.  I think they'll have a great chance to get it considering they will be at home this time around.

Plays on any team (MARSHALL) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (less than 63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more two straight games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Akron is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, actually losing in this spot by an average of 4.3 points per game.  Take Marshall Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1

The USC Trojans are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned all five starters from last year and are a sleeper in the Pac-12.  They didn't disappoint in their first five games, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS, which included an upset victory over Wichita State.

But they have gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost to one of the best teams in the country in Xavier by 10, and followed that up with a 10-point loss to Monmouth, which is one of the best small-conference teams in the land.  They certainly suffered a hangover from that Xavier loss against Monmouth, and they had already beaten Monmouth by 11 at home earlier this season, so they weren't motivated to face them again.  Now the Trojans will be hungry to snap this 2-game skid tonight.

I have not been impressed with UC-Santa Barbara during its 2-3 start.  Its two wins have come against Nebraska-Omaha and San Francisco by a combined 8 points.  The three losses have come against fellow Pac-12 teams in California (by 18), Oregon State (by 12) and Arizona State (by 2).  I believe USC is right on par with Oregon State and better than Arizona State.

The Trojans are scoring 84.6 points per game and shooting 46.4% against teams that only allow 72 points per game and shoot 42.2%.  Their defense has also been vastly improved, giving up 37.8% shooting against teams that average 41.4% shooting.

USC is 13-3 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last three seasons.  The Trojans are 9-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  USC is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Roll with USC Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on BYU +8.5

BYU is a team I have my eye on after it went 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament.  That's because it returned three starters, led by Kyle Collinsworth (13.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.0 apg), who had an NCAA-record six triple-doubles last year.

The Cougars are off to a 4-1 start this season with their only loss coming by a single point at Long Beach State.  Collinsworth (15.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 6.2 apg) is among five players scoring in double figures.  Nick Emery (15.4 ppg, 4.0 apg) is a former Utah Mr. Basketball.  Kyle Davis (12.2 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a beast on the boards, Chase Fischer (11.4 ppg) is a sharpshooper, and Corbin Kaufusi (10.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg) does the dirty work.

Utah hasn't impressed me at all this season and should not be laying 8.5 points here.  Yes, it is off to a 5-1 start, but four of those victories have come by 11 points or less.  The Utes only beat Southern Utah by 11 as 24.5-point home favorites, San Diego State by 5 as 5-point home favorites, Texas Tech by 10 as 8.5-point favorites, and Temple by 6 as 6.5-point favorites.  They also lost to the best team they've played in Miami by a final of 66-90, which is a game that shows me they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago.

Utah's strength is its big men, but the Cougars clearly have the answer in the post.  They are outrebounding their opponents 51-35 this season, while the Utes are only outrebounding foes 39-33.  The Cougars are outscoring foes by 18.4 points per game this season, while the Utes are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per game.  The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Roll with BYU Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Duke ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Indiana +10.5

The Indiana Hoosiers have suffered two losses already, which has them undervalued here.  Their two losses came to Wake Forest and UNLV by a combined seven points as they simply couldn't get it done down the stretch.  But this is still one of the best teams in the country, and the Hoosiers have no business being double-digit underdogs to Duke here.

Indiana returned four starters from last year and added in big man Thomas Bryant (12.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg), who is shooting 70.2 percent from the floor and also gives them a defensive presence in the pain that they didn't have last year.  James Blackmon (17.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Yogi Ferrell (156.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg) give the Hoosiers one of the best guard tandems in the country.  Troy Williams (11.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) does a little bit of everything.

Duke only returned one starter this year, and it is still a work in progress.  The Blue Devils lost their toughest game 63-74 to Kentucky.  They also only beat VCU by 8 as 10-point favorites and Georgetown by 2 as 6-point favorites.  But they are coming off two straight covers against Yale and Utah State, which I believe has them overvalued here as 10-point favorites.

Indiana can score with anyone.  It is putting up 88.3 points per game on 54.7% shooting this season.  Its defense is improved as well as it is allowing 69.6 points per game against opponents that average 74.1 points per game, so this is finally an above-average defensive squad.  Duke gives up 70.1 points per game against opponents that average 73.8, so the Blue Devils are only slightly above average on that end as well.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread over the last two seasons.  They haven't covered in three of their last four, which I believe has provided some extra value here.  Bet Indiana Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -12

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team I have my eye on this season.  They returned four starters from last year for first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08.  They also added in one of the top freshmen in the country in Malik Newman.

While Mississippi State is just 3-3 this season, it has not disappointed against the spread, going 4-1 ATS in its five lined games.  It has covered three straight coming in, which includes back-to-back blowout wins over Missouri State by 14 as 6-point favorites and Tennessee-Martin by 25 as 10.5-point favorites.

All four returning starters are playing a big role already in Gavin Ware (20.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg), I.J. Ready (12.8 ppg, 5.5 apg), Craig Sword (11.8 ppg) and Travis Daniels (8.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Newman (11.4 ppg) is still trying to find his footing, but it won't be long before he becomes one of the better players in the country.

Texas Southern is just 1-5 this season with its only win coming at home against Texas-San Antonio.  It is 0-5 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 18.0 points per game.  Texas Southern lost by 29 at New Mexico, by 23 at Creighton, by 20 at Clemson and by 12 at Washington State.  I believe Mississippi State is as good or better as all four of those teams that Texas Southern lost by 12 points or more to on the road.

The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on a home team (MISSISSIPPI ST) - after two straight wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on William & Mary -3.5

Coach Tony Shaver has built William & Mary into a program that competes at the upper echelon of the Colonial Athletic Association every year.  This is a team that went 20-13 last year and tied for first atop the conference with a 12-6 CAA mark.

Shaver returns four starters from that team in Omar Prewitt (13.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg LY), Terry Tarpey (11.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg), Daniel Dixon (11.1 ppg) and Sean Sheldon (6.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Those four have been the leading scorers for this team during a 4-2 start in 2015-16.  Prewitt (17.3. ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Sixon (15.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg) have been sensational, while Tarpey (10.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Sheldon (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg) are having fine seasons as well.

William & Mary's two losses this season have come to Dayton and Howard, both on the road, by a combined 5 points.  The 66-69 loss at Dayton as 9.5-point road dogs was especially impressive.  But it wasn't as impressive as William & Mary's 85-68 upset win at NC State as 12.5-point underdogs.  That effort signified that the Tribe would be a tough team to deal with this season.

Old Dominion is 3-0 at home this year with wins against overmatched opponents like Niagara, Buffalo and Morgan State.  But it is 0-3 on the road/neutral site games with a blowout loss to Purdue 39-61, a loss to St. Joe's (64-66), and a loss to VCU (67-76).  The Monarchs are only averaging 56.7 points on 34.5% shooting on the road.  The Tribe are averaging 85.5 points on 46.8% shooting at home this year, and 78.2 points on 48.3% shooting in all games, including 41.3% from 3-point range.

William & Mary is 16-4 ATS vs teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three  seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  The Monarchs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tribe are 8-1 ATS after having lost two of their last three games over the last three seasons.  The Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The home team won both meetings between these teams last year.  The Monarchs are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take William & Mary Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Illinois State +20

Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference.  A 3-4 start doesn't do this team justice, but the Redbirds are now undervalued as a result.  This start can be attributed to a brutal schedule.

The Redbirds lost on the road to San Diego State 60-71 in the opener.  They held a 2-point lead over No. 1 Maryland with just six minutes to go before giving way in a 66-77 loss.  Those two efforts right there show that the Redbirds can play with the best teams in the country.

Kentucky is clearly overvalued right now due to its No. 1 national ranking.  The Wildcats are 6-0, but they are just 2-4 ATS.  Five of their six wins have come by 21 points or less, and the lone exception was a 30-point home win over New Jersey Tech.  They beat Albany at home by 13, Wright State at home by 15, Boson at home by 20, and South Florida on a neutral court by 21.  Illinois State is better than all four of those teams.

"We're playing a good team. Illinois State. I watched their Maryland game. They had Maryland beat. They've got a quick guard, (Paris) Lee. I'm not sure what we'll be able to do with him. They've got a kid, (DeVaughn Akoon-) Purcell, that's scoring 16, 17 a game." Kentucky head coach John Calipari said.  "Will be a tough matchup for us depending on how we play. They've got some veteran guys."

Kentucky is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more.  The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Illinois State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -2

The Xavier Musketeers are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over the Dayton Flyers Sunday in the Championship Game of this Advocare Invitational Tournament.  I'll gladly back them as small favorites here when they should be laying more points.

Both teams are undefeated this season, but that's about where the similarities stop.  I've been much more impressed with Xavier's 6-0 start than Dayton's 5-0 effort.  The Flyers are very fortunate to be 5-0 as their last three wins have come by 3, 5 and 3 points against William & Mary, Iowa and Monmouth.

Xavier has been much more dominant, going 6-0 while winning all 6 games by 9 points or more.  That includes a 12-point home win over Missouri, a 16-point road win at Michigan, a 19-point win over Alabama on a neutral court, and a 10-point win over USC on a neutral court.

Dayton is without its top two players from last year.  Jordan Sibert (16.1 ppg) graduated, while Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely.  This was an NCAA Tournament team last year, but without those two, I have my doubts that the Flyers can get back to the big dance.

Xavier is 9-1 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 9-1 ATS versus very good defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last three years.  Roll with Xavier Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are currently ranked No. 4 after their 4-0 start that has seen them dominate the competition.  First-year head coach Steve Prohm stepped into a great situation with four returning starters, and everyone has bought in as he has been playing pretty much the same system that Fred Hoiberg did before him, only he emphasizes defense more.

The Cyclones are hitting on all cylinders  offensively.  They are scoring 89.0 points per game on 53.0% shooting and 43.5% from 3-point range.  They average 20 assists per game as they simply share the ball as well as anyone in the country.  Defensively, they only give up 66.5 points per game on 37.8% shooting, allowing just 11 assists per game to compare.

Illinois is clearly one of the worst teams in the Big Ten with a 3-3 start this season.  It has lost to North Florida (81-93) and Chattanooga (77-81) at home, and needed a buzzer-beater to beat Chicago State 82-79 at home.  That gives these teams a couple common opponents.

Iowa State beat Chicago State 106-64 at home, or by 42 points.  Iowa State also beat Chattanooga 83-63 at home, or by 20 points.  Given those results compared to Illinois, it's easy to see why I like Iowa State to cover this generous 8.5-point spread.  The Cyclones continued to play well yesterday in a 99-77 win over VA Tech.

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  They continue to roll against the overmatched Fighting Illini today.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State +23.5

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (14.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.

Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg LY) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg LY) are also two studs who are back.  But two guys who have been really playing well that aren't returning starters are Devin Carter (14.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Donte Thomas (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.4 apg).

Arkansas State and Baylor have a couple common opponents that really make me think the Red Wolves can easily stay within 23.5 of the Bears today.  They are Jackson State and Oregon.  Arkansas State beat Jackson State by 9 at home and lost to Oregon by 23 on the road.  Baylor beat Jackson State by 17 at home and lost to Oregon by 7 on the road.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game, on Friday nights are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1997.  The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet Arkansas State Friday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -5.5

You'll be hard-pressed to get the Maryland Terrapins at a better value than we're getting them tonight.  They are only 5.5-point favorites over the Rhode Island Rams in this Championship Game of the Cancun Challenge.

The Terrapins are getting a lot of hype because they are the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  But they haven't lived up to that hype in terms of the spread.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, failing to cover as 9-point favorites against Georgetown, as 19.5-point favorites against Ride and as 13-point favorites against Illinois State.  I believe they are finally undervalued now as a result.

Still, they have managed to start 4-0, and now they are the smallest favorites (-5.5) they have been all season.  The scary part is they aren't shooting the ball well, yet they have a plethora of great shooters.  They are only making 30.1 percent of their 3-point shots, down from 37.6 a year ago.  It's only a matter of time before they start falling with the talent this team possesses.

Rhode Island was going to be an NCAA Tournament team in my opinion before losing E.C. Matthews to a torn ACL suffered in practice last week.  Matthews averaged 16.9 points per game last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans going forward.  They were able to get by TCU 66-60 yesterday, but they aren't going to be as fortunate against one of the best teams in the country a night later.

Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents.  The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.

The Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Rhode Island is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas State +21.5

The Oregon Ducks are way overvalued here due to their 4-0 start to the season.  They have survived a couple scares from Baylor (74-67) and Valparaiso (73-67) while also beating Jackson State (80-52) and Savannah State (77-59).

Arkansas State is 2-2 with home wins over Lyon (81-37) and Jackson State (78-69), as well as road losses to SIU-Edwardsville (70-79) and Savannah State (75-76).  That gives these teams two common opponents, and I believe the results in those two games suggest that the Red Wolves can stay within 21.5 points of the Ducks here.

I really like the prospects of this Arkansas State team because it returned all five starters from last year.  In fact, all nine of its rotation players are back.  Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double last year (15.9 ppg, 10.0 rpg), and he's doing the same this year (15.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg) already.  Cameron Golden (13.7 ppg) and Sean Gardner (12.0 ppg) are also two studs who are back.

The Red Wolves are averaging 76.0 points per game this season, which is great for a team not known for its offense.  The Red Wolves pride themselves on defense, and that has been the case this year as they are only allowing opponents to shoot 34.8% from the field.

Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (ARKANSAS ST) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Arkansas State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pepperdine -3.5

I believe Pepperdine to be one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They went 18-14 last year overall and 10-8 in WCC play.  They pulled off back-to-back upsets over Saint Mary's and BYU last February.  The good news this year? All five starters return.

Back are Jeremy Major (8.7 ppg, 3.6 apg LY), Stacy Davis (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg), Atif Russell (5.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg), SHawn Olden (9.2 ppg) and Jett Raines (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg).  The Waves are just 2-2 to start this season, but the schedule has been tough so it's understandable.

Their only two losses came on the road as underdogs to Fresno State (66-69) and UCLA (67-81).  I was very impressed with what they did against a very solid Duquesne team yesterday in the opener of this Gulf Coast Showcase Tournament.  They won 84-70 as 3.5-point favorites behind another great defensive effort.  They have held three of their first four opponents to less than 40% shooting.

Murray State is in full-on rebuilding mode this season.  They lost head coach Steve Brohm to Iowa State in the offseason, and they lost Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) to the NBA.  But that wasn't all they lost.  They only returned one starter this year in Jeffery Moss, losing their other four starters.

That does make their 3-1 start kind of impressive, but it's not like they've beaten anybody relevant as their three wins have come against Harris Stowe, Middle Tennessee State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  They lost to the best team they've played with a 52-63 setback at Georgia as 8.5-point dogs.

Plays on a favorite (PEPPERDINE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Murray State is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 vs. very good defensive teams that allow 39% or less shooting to opponents.  Pepperdine is 14-3 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Waves are 14-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Roll with Pepperdine Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on East Carolina +14.5

The East Carolina Pirates are catching way too many points tonight against the San Diego State Aztecs.  We'll take advantage and back them as double-digit road underdogs here.

East Carolina is off to an impressive 2-1 start this season.  It beat Grambling 61-53 and Charlotte 88-74 at home to open the season.  But what really impressed me most is its 62-70 road loss as 20.5-point underdogs at nationally ranked California.  The Pirates only shot 32.7% in that game yet found a way to hang around with one of the best teams in the country.

San Diego State has no business laying 14.5 points to East Carolina with what I've seen from it so far.  The Aztecs are just 2-2 on the season with an 11-point home win over Illinois State, a 10-point home win over San Diego Christian, a 6-point home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock and a 5-point road loss to Utah.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (E CAROLINA) - slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 111-57 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.    The Aztecs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  The Pirates are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with East Carolina Monday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -6.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the No. 1 ranked team in the country for good reason.  They returned four starters and five key reserves from last year's team that made it to the Sweet 16.  Even though Marcus Paige is hurt right now, this team can rely on their big men in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks to lead the way.

The Tar Heels have opened 3-0 with three blowout home wins over Temple (91-67), Fairfield (92-65) and Wofford (78-58).  The balance on this team has been remarkable, but Meeks (16.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Johnson (16.0 ppg, 11.7 rpg) have stood out the most.  Joel Berry II (15.0 ppg, 4.0 apg) has filled in nicely for Paige, and Nate Britt (13.0 ppg) is shooting 66.7% from 3-point range in the early going.

Northern Iowa is overvalued to start the season after a 31-4 campaign last year and a Missouri Valley Tournament Championship.  But the Panthers had all 5 starters back last year, and now they just have 2 returning.  They lose MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle (15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and two other starters in Melvin Singleton and Deon Mitchell.  The Panthers lost to Colorado State 78-84 at home before beating Stephen F. Austin 70-60 at home.  Now they face the toughest opponent they will all season, and I see no way they are able to stay within 6.5 points of the Tar Heels.

Plays on any team (N CAROLINA) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  UNC is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Take North Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wright State +25

This is simply a situational play against Kentucky.  The Wildcats are coming off a huge 74-63 over Duke on Tuesday, and I expect them to be still feeling a little too good about themselves.  They won't come back with the kind of focus it takes to put away Wright State by more than 25 points.

Kentucky returned zero starters this season and is starting over.  It only beat Albany by 13 points in its opener and New Jersey Tech by 30 in its second game.  Now it is overvalued off that win over Duke.

Wright State is just 1-2 this season, but its two losses have come by 5 and 6 points to CS-Northridge and Northern Illinois, both on the road.  Wright State has had four days off in between games, while Kentucky has had just two.

Wright State returned three key starters this season in JT Yoho (15.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Joe Thomasson (10.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Michael Karena (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Grant Benzinger (9.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) and Steven Davis (7.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  So, they returned each of their top four scorers from last year, which was an injury-riddled campaign as three of their best players missed significant playing time.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points, a good free throw shooting team making 72% of their free throws, who have a 45% field goal percentage defense or worse are 74-35 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Wright State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +14

Tennessee is in a transition year under first-year head coach Rick Barnes.  The results haven't been promising in the early going with a narrow 82-78 home win over UNC-Asheville and a 67-69 road loss to Georgia Tech.  The Volunteers have no business laying 14 points to this improved Marshall team.

Marshall was in rebuilding mode last year under first-year head coach Dan D'Antoni.  It went just 11-21 overall but improved as the season went on, finishing a respectable 7-11 in C-USA play.  Marshall is the alma mater of D'Antoni, and he's trying to resurrect the program with his free-wheeling, fast-paced style that he learned as a longtime NBA assistant with the Suns, Knicks and Lakers under his brother, Mike D'Antoni.

The Herd return four starters from last year.  That includes double-double machine Ryan Taylor (14.1 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Austin Loop (11.3 ppg, 2.3 rpg), who took well to D'Antoni's system.  Also back are Aleksa Nikolic, who started 25 games last year, and Justin Edmonds (9.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg).  Both Loops and Edmonds are great 3-point shooters who fit the system well.

D'Antoni also got some help both here and abroad in the offseason.  He nabbed Junior College transfer Terrence Thompson, who posted 12 double-doubles while helping Georgia Highlands reach the NJCAA semifinals last year.  He also got two stretch four Euros in 6-9 Aleksandar Dozic from Montenegro and 6-9 Ajdin Penava from Bosnia and Herzegovina.  He's starting to really get his pieces in place.

Tennessee is a woeful 0-13 ATS as a home favorite or pick 'em over the last two seasons, averaging 61.8 points and giving up 61.8 points in these spots.  That's a trend we'll gladly ride tonight.  Take Marshall Thursday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Travis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.

After beating Eastern Washington 106-88 in their opener, the Bulldogs fell 72-76 at home to Southern.  That loss obviously has the betting public not wanting anything to do with this team as they are now 10-point underdogs in this Puerto Rico Tip Off against Miami.  Newmand didn't play against Eastern Washington, and he was on a minutes restriction against Southern.  But now he's a full go and should make a huge difference for this team.

Miami has four starters back as well this season and is a good team, but should not be favored by double-digits here. It opened with an 86-59 win over UTRGV and a 93-77 win over LA-Lafayette and hasn't done anything to impress me with those two results.  This is a team that shot just 42.8% last year, ranking 12th in the ACC.

Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS after a game where it forced 8 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Mississippi State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on IUPUI +12

It's clear to me that IUPUI is going to be one of the best teams in the Summit League this season.  The Jaguars returned four starters this year, and they nabbed three key transfers from Loyola Chicago in Nick Osborne, Matt O'Leary and Jordan Pickett.  Another transfer, former Eastern Illinois guard Darrell Combs, is playing a big role as well.

IUPUI has opened with two tough opponents.  It beat Indiana State 72-70 on the road as 8-point underdogs, and then only lost 71-75 at Marquette as 13.5-point dogs.  Combs has led the way with 18.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 4.0 apg through the first two games.  Osbourne (11.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and O'Leary (8.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg) are holding down the fort in the paint.

NC State came into the season overvalued after knocking off top-seeded Villanova in the NCAA Tournament last year. But the Wolfpack lost four key contributors in the offseason, and their recruiting "class" included just one person, so they have only 10 players on scholarship this year.

Trevor Lacey (15.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg) left early for the NBA and went undrafted, which was a huge blow.  Ralston Turner (12.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Kyle Washington (6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) also departed.  That leaves three returning starters in Cat Barber (12.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Lennard Freeman (3.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  Also, their lone recruit in the offseason was WVU transfer Terry Henderson, and he is out 6-8 weeks to start the season with an ankle injury.

NC State had one of the worst performances of the early college hoops season, losing 68-85 at home to William & Mary as 12.5-point favorites.  If that 17-point loss doesn't show how much the Wolfpack are in trouble this year, then I don't know what does.  They did rebound with an 88-70 home win over South Alabama as expected to cover the 15.5-point spread, but this underrated IUPUI team will give them a run for their money tonight.

IUPUI is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two years.  IUPUI is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Bet IUPUI Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pacific -5.5

Pacific returned all five starters from a team that went just 12-19 last season.  But it was a rebuilding year last season, and now the Tigers will be a big-time sleeper in the West Coast Conference with what they have returning.

T.J. Wallace (13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Eric Thompson (8.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Ray Bowles (6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg), David Taylor (7.9 ppg, 1.7 rpg) and Sami Eleraky (3.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are all back.  Coach Ron Verlin added a playmaker in Maleke Haynes and a stretch four in Tonko Vuko from the junior college ranks, while also nabbing high-scoring prep star Anthony Townes.  Townes is from the same high school that sent T.J. Wallace and Ray Bowles to the Tigers.

I was impressed with the way Pacific competed in its opener, a 61-79 loss at highly-ranked Arizona, covering the spread as 23.5-point underdogs.  After shaking off the nerves with a poor first half, Pacific was only outscored 37-38 after intermission by Arizona.  That's a performance that this team can build off of leading into this game with CS-Fullerton.

Cal-State Fullerton went 9-22 last year, including 1-15 in Big West play.  It is picked to finish last in the Big West again in 2015-16.  It's easy to see why as the Titans lose four starters in Alex Harris, (15.8 ppg), Moses Morgan (8.0 ppg), Steven McClellan (6.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Josh Gentry (6.2 ppg).  Their only returning starter is Kennedy Esume (4.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  To say they are starting over would be an understatement.

Fullerton lost its opener 74-79 as 2-point underdogs at Loyola-Marymount.  Keep in mind that Loyola-Marymount went 8-23 last season.  Plus, the Lions only returned two starters from last year and are pretty much starting over.  They are picked to finish last in the West Coast Conference this season, well behind Pacific.  Coach Mike Dunlap cleaned house, yet they were still able to beat this awful Fullerton team in the opener.

Pacific is 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Fullerton.  Fullerton is 9-21 ATS in road games over the last two seasons, and 17-35-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  Roll with Pacific Tuesday.

15* Oklahoma/Memphis ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4

The Oklahoma Sooners are the No. 8 ranked team in the country for good reason this year.  They return four starters, three of them seniors, from last season's squad that went 24-11 and barely missed the Elite 8.

Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield is back after averaging 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds last year.  Also back are Jordan Woodard (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg), Ryan Spangler (9.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Highly regarded recruits Christian James and Rashard Odomes will play immediately.  Odomes averaged 25.2 points last year as a senior at Copperas Cove High School.  James broke his leg in an AAU game last August before his senior year of high school but is fully recovered.

Josh Pastner's seat is getting very hot at Memphis.  The Tigers went just 18-14 last season and finished 10-8 in the AAC.  They lost Kuran Iverson to transfer in the middle of last season, and saw Nick King and RaShawn Powell elect to leave the program after the season was over.

But the biggest blow for the Tigers came in July, when standout sophomore forward Austin Nichols surprisingly decided to leave the program as well, ending up with Virginia.  Nichols was the AAC Rookie of the Year two years ago and first-team all-league player last season, when he led the Tigers in scoring (13.3 ppg) and was second in the league in blocked shots (3.4 bpg).

Memphis did open with a 67-49 win over Southern Miss Saturday, but that was an awful Golden Eagles team that went 9-20 last season.  Southern Miss also returned just one starter from last year and lost its two best players in Chip Armelin (15.8 ppg) and Matt Bingaya (13.8 ppg).

Memphis also allowed 21 offensive rebounds by Southern Miss in that game, which is a sign that Pastner just doesn't have control of this team.  Look for the Tigers to get outworked by the Sooners on the glass in this one.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, losing by an average of 13.2 points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -9.5

The USC Trojans are certainly a team to keep your eye on this season.  Andy Enfield enters Year 3 here with by far his best team yet.  The Trojans didn't lose a single player who started a game in 2014-15.  Their heralded 2014 recruiting class is a year older, and they've added a pair of four-star recruits in forward Benny Boatwright and center Chimezie Metu.

All five returning starters are back in Jordan McClaughlin (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), Katin Reinhardt (12.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Julian Jacobs (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Elijah Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  This is a core group that improved as the season went on, but suffered and absurd amount of close losses in Pac-12 play.  Look for those losses to start turning into wins in 2015-16.

I like what I saw from USC in its opener, an 83-45 beat down of San Diego as 12.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 25.5 points.  McLaughlin (20), Steward (14), Jacobs (11) and Boatwright (10) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Trojans.  But the defense was even more impressive, limiting San Diego to 15-of-61 (24.6%) shooting.

This is a massive letdown spot for Monmouth.  It beat UCLA 84-81 on the road as 15-point underdogs in its opener, and it is clearly overvalued after that result.  The Bruins gave the game away by committing 23 turnovers despite outrebounding Monmouth 60-37 for the game.  Rebounding could be an issue again for Monmouth against USC, which outrebounded San Diego 55-36.  UCLA also escaped with an 88-83 win over Cal Poly last night, so it's clear that the Bruins aren't great this year.

Plays on a favorite (USC) - after allowing 50 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on a favorite (USC) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with USC Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins will be highly motivated for a win today after getting upset by Monmouth 81-84 in their opener.  They committed 23 turnovers and only forced 7 to essentially give the game away.  Look for the Bruins to shore up those turnover issues and to come back with a much better effort Sunday.

This is a UCLA team that won 22 games last year and advanced to the Sweet 16.  They have three starters back from that team in Bryce Alford (15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), Tony Parker (11.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Isaac Hamilton (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg).  Parker is going to be one of the best players in the country this season.  He had 19 points and 19 rebounds against Monmouth.

Cal Poly is coming off a 72-74 loss at UNLV.  It trailed by double-digits in the second half before coming back to make it close late, which I believe is keeping this line against UCLA smaller than it should be.  The Mustangs returned three starters this season from a team that went just 13-16 last year.

Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  UCLA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.  UCLA is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games overall.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

20* CBB 2015 Season Opening BEST BET on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels were much better than their 18-15 record and 8-10 mark in Mountain West play indicated last year. They lost three times to league champ San Diego State by a combined 11 points.  They covered 11 of their last 13 games to close out the season, and I look for that momentum to carry over into 2015.

Head coach Dave Rice is on the hot seat as his team didn't live up to expectations last year, but he's still 89-47 in his four seasons here.  He also delivered another Top 10 recruiting class nationally.  Freshman forward Derrick Jones chose UNLV over UConn, Kentucky and Kansas.  Fellow freshman Stephen Zimmerman is a five-star center from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High and a Top 10 recruit.

The Rebels do have two returning starters too in guard Patrick McGraw (9.6 ppg, 2.7 apg), F/C Goodluck Okonoboh (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpb), and a couple of key reserves ready for bigger roles in sophomore guard Jordan Cornish and sophomore forward Dwayne Morgan.  Both players will see increased minutes due to the losses of Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood, who left early for the NBA.

Cal Paly went just 13-16 last season and is only picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West this year.  They do return three starters, but none of them averaged more than 11.5 points per game last year.  This team is simply going to be overmatched talent-wise and will struggled to keep this game close.

UNLV does have a nice home-court advantage as it went 13-4 and outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game inside the Thomas & Mack Center.  Cal Poly went just 6-12 on the road last year where it scored only 58.3 points per game.  Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents.  Roll with UNLV Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Trvis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.  Newman may be on a minutes limit tonight because he's recovering from a toe injury, but it's not going to matter.

Eastern Washington comes into 2015-16 overvalued due to its 26-9 season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year.  But four starters are gone from that team, including Tyler Harvey (23.1 ppg), who left a year early for the NBA.  Also gone are three other starters who averaged 9.7, 9.7 and 7.7 points per game, respectively.  It's safe to say that the Eagles are rebuilding in 2015 with just one starter back.

Howland is 81-51 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in all games he has coached with his teams winning by 17.9 points per game on average.  Bet Mississippi State Friday.

20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1

The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky.  Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.

I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.  Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.

While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison.  Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four.  This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes.  Bet Wisconsin Monday.

25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5

Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.

Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.

While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.

There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable.  However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played.  The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32.  I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.

I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played.  It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7.  I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.

Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament.  The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* Stanford/Miami NIT Championship No-Brainer on Miami +2

The ACC showed very well for itself in the NCAA Tournament.  It is doing so in the NIT as well thanks to Miami, which just keeps finding ways to win as its mental makeup couldn't be much stronger with the path it has taken to get here.

The Hurricanes came back from a big deficit against Richmond to win 63-61 on the road, and then topped Temple 60-57 in the semifinals after trailing for most of the way.  They have now won seven of their last eight games overall heading into the Championship Game.

Stanford has had the easier path since it played its first three games at home before beating Old Dominion 67-60 in the semifinals. What I love about this matchup is that the Hurricanes should continue to have a huge rebounding advantage.  They have outrebounded each of their last eight opponents coming in.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in road games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers this year.  The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Thursday.

20* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls (26-10) have been playing like an NCAA Tournament team ever since they got healthy midseason.  Jesse Morgan (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) missed 10 games early on, but when he returned, the Owls have really been hitting all cylinders since.

Temple has gone 14-3 in its last 17 games overall.  All three of its losses came on the road to SMU (twice) and Tulsa, which are arguably the two best teams in the AAC.  I've really been impressed with the ease in which the Owls have reached the semifinals of the NIT.

After a 73-67 win over a pesky Bucknell team, the Owls have rolled George Washington (90-77) and Louisiana Tech (77-59) to get here.  Morgan came up huge in both wins, scoring 20 points in only 23 minutes against George Washington and 17 points in 24 minutes against Louisiana Tech.

Miami (24-12) is a team that has simply won a ton of close games all season and is not as good as its record would indicate.  It has won 10 games by 5 points or less, and all three of its wins in the NIT have come by 7 points or fewer.  It beat NC Central (75-71) at home, Alabama (73-66) at home, and Richmond (63-61) on the road.

Temple is 10-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Owls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

20* Gonzaga/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Gonzaga +3

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is easily the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They are 35-2 on the season with one of their losses coming in overtime on the road at Arizona, which is a very tough place to play.

The Bulldogs have been rolling through the NCAA Tournament thus far with three straight double-digit victories over NDSU (86-76), Iowa (87-68) and UCLA (74-62).  Some of their best players even had an off night as they shot 40.3% from the floor against the Bruins, but they still won by 12 points.

I believe Gonzaga is a better team than Duke and it should not be the underdog.  The Blue Devils have also had a pair of blowout wins over Robert Morris (85-56) and San Diego State (68-49), but they had to hold on late to beat Utah (63-57) last time out.  I just believe that the Bulldogs have more balance than the Blue Devils do.  The Bulldogs have the size inside to disrupt Jahlil Okafor just as Utah did.

Gonzaga ia 11-1 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Gonzaga Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season.  That has clearly carried over into the big dance as well as they've won three straight games, including an impressive 81-70 victory over Wichita State last round, to reach the Elite 8.

The Fighting Irish have now won eight straight coming into this game, which includes wins against ranked teams in then-No. 16 Louisville (71-59), then-No. 2 Duke (74-64) and then-No. 19 North Carolina (90-82).  So, they have obviously beaten some very good teams during this streak.

Notre Dame players are clearly playing for head coach Mike Brey right now.  He revealed to his players only after a 67-64 (OT) win over Butler in the Round of 32 that he lost his mother earlier that day.  The players responded in a big way with that 11-point win over Wichita State, and I look for them to use that as extra motivation for them against Kentucky in the Elite 8.

I believe Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 78-39 beat down of West Virginia in the Sweet 16.  Looking back, that was a terrible matchup for the Mountaineers.  To hang with Kentucky you have to be a good 3-point shooting team, and the Mountaineers are one of the worst in the tournament.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team that can hit the 3-pointer with the best of them.  It is shooting 52% overall in the tournament and 38% from 3-point range.  It scores 78.3 points per game on the season on 51.1% shooting overall and 39.2% from beyond the arc.  The Fighting Irish have what it takes to go basket for basket with the Wildcats.  They spread you out with four 3-point shooters on the court at all times, which will nullify Kentucky's height advantage inside defensively.

The Fighting Irish are 11-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.