Winning Sports Picks

20* Kentucky/Mississippi State SEC No-Brainer on Mississippi State -2.5

The Kentucky Wildcats have been one of the most overrated teams in college basketball all season especially of late.  After losing by 15 as 5-point home favorites to Arkansas, they were just upset by 7 as 7-point road favorites at Georgia.  They are without Sahvir Wheeler (7.7 PPG) right now and could be without CJ Fredrick (7.3 PPG), who is questionable.

Things won't get any easier for the Wildcats tonight as they have to travel to face a Mississippi State team playing their best basketball of the season.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 as 11.5-point road dogs at No. 1 Alabama.  They beat South Carolina by 15 and Arkansas by 6 on the road, while topping TCU by 7, Missouri by 11 and LSU by 11 at home.

Kentucky is 0-8 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  The Wildcats are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Bet Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State ML -115

Few teams in the entire country are playing worse than Murray State right now as the Steve Prohm era is off to a rocky start.  The Racers are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by a combined 112 points and failing to cover the spread by a combined 91 points.  They lost 56-99 at Indiana State, 68-92 at home to Drake and 48-83 at Bradley.

Murray State did beat Illinois State 70-67 at home in their first meeting this season, but now the Redbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch at home this time around.  I look for them to win this game against the struggling Racers.  Illinois State has won two of its last three home games over Southern Illinois and Illinois-Chicago with its lone loss coming to red-hot Bradley.

Murray State is 1-7 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  The Racers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Illinois State Wednesday.

20* Alabama/Tennessee ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +3.5

I've been fading Tennessee and will continue to do so tonight.  They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall losing by 13 as 4.5-point favorites at Florida, by 1 as 10-point road favorites at Vanderbilt and by 1 as 12.5-point home favorites to Missouri.  They also only beat Auburn by 3 as 9.5-point home favorites during this stretch.

The Volunteers have really been struggling on offense which is why they cannot be trusted, scoring 56 against Florida, 46 against Auburn and 65 against Vanderbilt.  Two of their best players in James (9.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and Phillips (9.0 PG, 4.8 APG) are questionable to play tonight and won't be 100% if they do.

Now Tennessee must face the No. 1 team in the country in Alabama, which ranks 13th in adjusted offense and 5th in adjusted defense and has no weaknesses.  The Crimson Tide come in winning four consecutive games scoring 101, 79, 97 and 77 points.  They are elite defensively amazingly allowing 69 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 games overall while going 13-1 SU during this stretch.  I just don't think the Volunteers have the offense to hang with them in this one.

Alabama is 10-2 ATS against conference opponents this season, far and away the best team in the SEC.  Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Alabama Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas/Oklahoma State UNDER 140.5

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off tonight when Kansas visits Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys rank 5th in the country in adjusted defense while the Jayhawks rank 11th.  It's safe to say points will be hard to come by tonight.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between the Cowboys and Jayhawks.  Kansas won 69-67 at home for 136 combined points on December 31st.  Both teams were lights out from 3 in that game as well as the Cowboys were 13-of-29 (44.8%) and the Jayhawks were 11-of-23 (47.8%).  It's highly unlikely both teams shoot that well again, and that game saw just 136 combined points.  Each of the last three meetings have seen 138 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Oklahoma State's last six home games with a total of 140 to 149.5.  Kansas is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after covering four of its last five games.  The Cowboys are 8-1 UNDER in their last nine home games when playing against a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +3.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Illinois Fighting Illini.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and now find themselves favored on the road at Penn State.  This is a Penn State team they already lost by 15 to at home in their first meeting this season.

Conversely, we'll 'buy low' on the Nittany Lions following four consecutive losses.  The Nittany Lions are 11-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming in OT to Wisconsin and to Michigan State.  They have beaten the likes of Michigan by 22, Indiana by 19 and Iowa by 4 at home this season.

Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after playing a game as a road underdog.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Penn State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss.  The Nittany Lions are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall.  The underdog is 21-10-2 ATS in the last 33 meetings.  Bet Penn State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse ML +100

Syracuse is 9-5 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season.  The Orange are coming off consecutive road wins over Boston College and Florida State.  They are in a great spot here with five days off to rest and prepare for NC State.

I'll gladly 'sell high' on the Wolfpack, who are coming off a 92-62 win at Boston College which followed up a 13-point loss at Virginia.  The Wolfpack only have two days off to rest and prepare for Syracuse.  So the advantage in rest and preparation goes to the Orange in a big way tonight, and it should lead to a victory.

NC State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Orange are 6-0 ATS after playing a road game this season.  The Wolfpack are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a win.  The Orange are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Syracuse on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off two huge upset wins over Tennessee as 10-point home dogs and Florida as 8.5-point road dogs.  Now they'll fall flat on their faces tonight on the road at South Carolina.

The Gamecocks are playing well right now going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 2 at home to Arkansas as 12.5-point dogs, by 9 at Missouri as 15-point dogs and upsetting Ole Miss by 3 as 9-point road dogs.

Now the Gamecocks have their sights set on revenge from a 79-84 (OT) road loss at Vanderbilt as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  So they've already proven they can play with the Commodores on the road, and now they are catching 5 points at home in the rematch.  The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet South Carolina Tuesday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are broken.  They are 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have upset home losses to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern in their last three home games and are now 3.5-point favorites over Michigan State in a game I fully expect the Spartans to win outright.

The spot is much better for the Spartans.  They have had the last four days off to rest and prepare for Ohio State.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes just lost at home to Northwestern on Thursday and have only two days to get ready for the Spartans.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 65 points or fewer in three consecutive games.  Ohio State is 1-11 ATS following a conference game this season.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +7

Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  They have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games with upset wins at Colorado and at home against Arizona State.  They also only lost by 3 at Arizona, by 8 at ASU, by 9 at UCLA and by 6 at USC playing some of their best basketball on the road.

The Huskies are now catching too many points once again here on the road in this rivalry with Washington State.  The Cougars have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country at 10-15 SU this season.  They are have lost five of their last six games overall including three by double-digits.  They have no business being a 7-point favorite here.

Washington State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after scoring 60 points or fewer.  Washington is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a conference road loss.  The Huskies are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT's per game after 15-plus games.  The Huskies are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss.  The underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +5.5

Tim Miles knows how to turn around a bottom feeder program.  He did it at Nebraska, and he's doing it this season at San Jose State.  The Spartans are 14-10 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country, going 15-8 ATS in all lined games.  They are 9-2 SU at home this season and should not be this big of home underdogs to Utah State.

I love the spot for the Spartans out for revenge from a 74-75 loss as 11.5-point dogs at Utah State in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Aggies on the road, so they can certainly compete at home here and will likely pull off the outright upset.

Utah State only has two days to get over their 61-63 home loss to San Diego State.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat here.  San Jose State has had three days off to get ready for this game after losing at Fresno State last time out.  The Spartans have won their last three conference home games by 20, 30 and 10 points.

San Jose State is 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS following a loss this season.  The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Spartans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss.  San Jose State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon +2.5

Death, taxes and Dana Altman having Oregon playing its best basketball as the NCAA Tournament approaches.  That's the case for the Ducks again this season, winning four of its last five games with the only loss coming on the road at Arizona.  The Ducks beat Colorado by 6, Utah by 12 and USC by 18 at home while also winning at Arizona State.

This is a better spot for the Ducks coming off that 18-point home win over USC on Thursday.  They get to stay at home while UCLA has to travel again after winning at Oregon State on Thursday.  The Bruins lost their previous two road games at Arizona by 6 and at USC by 13.

Oregon wants revenge from a 56-65 loss at UCLA in their first meeting this season in which they blew a 6-point halftime lead and watched the Bruins pull away late.  Oregon upset UCLA 68-63 as identical 2.5-point home dogs last season.  The Ducks are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -3.5

The Villanova Wildcats are as healthy as they have been all season as they just recently got Justin Moore back from injury.  He has shaken the rust off and the Wildcats have played three straight impressive games despite losing two of them.  

They were beating Marquette basically the entire way on the road before losing by 9 in a misleading final.  They only lost by 5 at Creighton in a game they had a chance to win.  And then they returned home and took out their frustration in an 81-65 win over DePaul.  Now they will get a signature win here against Seton Hall to help their tournament resume.

Seton Hall is coming off a 13-point home loss to Creighton after a lackluster 5-point home win over DePaul.  The Pirates just don't win at Villanova.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 16-1 SU & 10-7 ATS in the last 17 home meetings.  This is a very short number for them to be laying at home.

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record after 15-plus games.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri +11.5

The Missouri Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season in the first year under Dennis Gates.  They are 18-6 with only three losses by more than this margin all season.  I fully expect them to give Tennessee a run for its money today.

Tennessee plays great defense, but they can't be trusted to get margin due to a very poor offense.  The Volunteers are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall largely due to their struggles on offense.  They scored 54 points in a 13-point loss at Florida, scored 46 points and somehow beat Auburn by 3 at home, and scored 65 points in an upset loss at Vanderbilt as double-digit favorites.

Missouri is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following three consecutive games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's also worth noting that Josiah-Jordan James (9.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is questionable for the Volunteers.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois -4.5

Illinois is 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Now the Fighting Illini have had a full week to get ready for Rutgers and be pissed off from their 2-point loss at Iowa.  They will be ready to go at home today, where they are 11-2 SU & 8-4 ATS this season.

Rutgers has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are just 2-5 SU in true road games losing their last three by 6 at Indiana, by 11 at Iowa and by 13 at Michigan State.  They just lost starting C Mawot Mag (7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) to a season-ending injury in that loss to Michigan State and are lacking interior defense without him.  That's bad news going up against Illinois here.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is has won six consecutive meetings while also going 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson +8

Rumors surrounding Caleb Love and RJ Davis have swirled for the UNC Tar Heels and it's no wonder they have played so poorly of late.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing at home to Pitt outright as 8.5-point favorites and on the road to Duke by 6 and Wake Forest by 7.  They cannot be trusted as 8-point home favorites here against Clemson even if there weren't rumors causing turmoil in the locker room.

Clemson is a legit team that is getting healthier now and will give UNC a run for its money.  I love the spot for the Tigers, who are coming off two consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They also come in rested having last played on Saturday, getting a full week to prepare for UNC.  The Tar Heels just played on Tuesday at Wake Forest and don't have the same luxury.

UNC is 2-8 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Clemson is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tar Heels are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  This one will go down to the wire today folks.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +9

It's time to 'buy low' on the Penn State Nittany Lions today.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall and really need a win for the NCAA Tournament.  I think they have a great shot to pull off this upset let alone staying within single-digits of the Terrapins.

We'll 'sell high' on Maryland, which has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and is now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  The only Big Ten games they've been favored by this much came against Nebraska at home and Minnesota on the road, the two worst teams in the Big Ten.  Penn State is several notches better than those two squads.

This has been a closely-contested rivalry in recent meetings.  In fact, 11 of the last 12 meetings have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  Penn State hasn't lost any of its last 12 meetings with Maryland by more than 7 points, making for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Nittany Lions pertaining to this 9-point spread.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Penn State/Maryland UNDER 135.5

This total is a couple notches too high today when you consider how these two teams play.  Maryland ranks 283rd in adjusted tempo and 25th in defensive efficiency.  Penn State ranks 305th in adjusted tempo and 106th in defensive efficiency.  This game will clearly be played at a snail's pace today folks, plus it's a sleepy early 12:00 EST start time.

Recent head-to-head history also shows points will be hard to come by.  Maryland and Penn State have combined for 128, 127 and 105 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  The Terrapins are 17-7 UNDER in all games this season and are a dead nuts UNDER team.

Maryland is 10-2 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Nittany Lions last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 14-4 in Terrapins last 18 games overall.  The UNDER is 40-19 in Terrapins last 59 Saturday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Fresno State +9.5

Nevada is in a massive letdown spot here after hitting a game-winner at the buzzer to upset New Mexico 77-76 on the road on Tuesday.  They have now won and covered three consecutive games, and now it's time to 'sell high' on the Wolf Pack.  Asking them to beat Fresno State by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  After upsetting UNLV as 9-point road dogs, they came back home and handled their business in a 70-62 win over San Jose State as 3.5-point favorites.  Now they'll be looking to pull the upset over the Wolf Pack tonight.

Nevada is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 home games vs. slow-down teams that average 53 or fewer shots per game.  Justin Hutson is 11-3 ATS in February road games as the coach of the Bulldogs.  Bet Fresno State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +8.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the St. Mary's Gaels.  They are coming off their huge comeback win over Gonzaga 78-70 (OT) on Saturday.  They have been celebrating that win all week and won't be focused for Loyola-Marymount tonight.  Don't be surprised if they lose outright as a result, let alone cover this 8.5-point spread.

Loyola-Marymount has played very well at home this season going 11-2 SU & 9-3 ATS while outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  The Lions want revenge from a 62-76 loss at St. Mary's in their first meeting this season on January 12th.  I like their chances of staying within 8.5 points at home this time around given the terrible spot for the Gaels.

Loyola-Marymount is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  Loyola-Marymount is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  Bet Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -5

It's time to 'buy low' on the Ohio State Buckeyes after going just 1-9 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are much better than they have shown and have been a hard-luck team, losing eight of the nine games by single-digits.  In fact, they are single-most unlucky team in the country according to KenPom's luck rating.

It's easy to see how we are buying low on the Buckeyes when you consider they were 2.5-point road favorites at Northwestern in their first meeting this season, and now are only 5-point home favorites for the rematch.  A normal home-court adjustment in college basketball is 6 to 8 points, which would mean they'd be 7.5 to 9.5-point favorites.  We are clearly getting them at a discount here.

Ohio State owns Northwestern going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with wins by 16, 8 and 10 points.  They won 73-57 at Northwestern in their first meeting this season, and I expect a similar blowout at home this time around.  The Wildcats are 18-40-3 ATS in their last 61 games following an ATS win.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Ohio State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Wichita State -2

Wichita State is playing well right now going 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall with two upset victories and the only losses coming on the road to Memphis by 10, to Tulane by 5 at home and to Houston by 9 in a game they nearly upset the Cougars before they pulled away late.

Now Wichita State wants revenge from a 45-52 loss at UCF in their first meeting this season where the Shockers shot just 35% from the field.  But this isn't the same UCF team as they faced in that first meeting.  This is an injury-ravaged Knights team that has gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with an 8-point loss at Tulane, a 13-point loss at USF, an 11-point home loss to Houston, as 7-point home loss to Temple and a 9-point loss at Cincinnati.

UCF is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following two or more consecutive overs.  The Knights are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games.  The Knights are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Wichita State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois State +9

Illinois State has been competitive of late going 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those games resulted in a 75-79 loss as 15-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting on January 25th.  I like their chances of staying within 9 points in the rematch at home tonight just two weeks later.

The Redbirds have really been good at home of late going 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games and only losing once all season at home by double-digits.  Bradley is 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  The Braves are 2-8 ATS in road games following a win this season.  The Braves are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games overall.  The Redbirds are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Illinois State Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +13.5

Valparaiso has quietly gone 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with two of their losses coming in overtime to Missouri State and Drake.  The other was an 11-point loss at Northern Iowa.  So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in any of their last seven games.

Indiana State is in a letdown spot following three consecutive victories over Northern Iowa, Evansville and Murray State, three of the worst teams in the MVC.  They actually lost their previous five games.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo again after winning by 18 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  

So this is a 7-point adjustment for home-court advantage, which is too much.  Valpo isn't going to shoot 29.5% from the field and 3-of-22 (13.6%) from 3-point range like they did in that first meeting.  I expect the Beacons to continue playing well and to take the Sycamores to the wire in the rematch tonight.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UNC-Wilmington +10

UNC-Wilmington is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games overall with two of those losses coming by exactly 2 points.  One of those was a 69-71 home loss to Charleston in their first meeting this season on January 11th as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 10 points on the road in the rematch, and I love the value with the revenge-minded road team here.

Charleston has finally started to show some chinks in the armor.  They have lost two of their last three games to Hofstra as 9-point home favorites and Drexel as 7.5-point road favorites.  The Cougars are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and remain overvalued due to their 22-3 record on the season.

This has been a closely-contested rivalry in recent meetings with each of the last four meetings decided by 8 points or fewer.  Wilmington hasn't lost any of its last eight meetings with Charleston by double-digits.  The underdog is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Seahawks are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wilmington is 35-14-2 ATS in its last 51 games overall.  The Seahawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine Wednesday games.  The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Wilmington is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games after winning four of its last five games.  Bet UNC-Wilmington Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +10.5

Tennessee is clearly one of the most overrated teams in the country.  That has played out recently with an upset loss at Florida by 13 and a narrow 3-point win over Auburn at home last time out.  Their offense cannot be trusted as they scored 54 points against Florida and 46 against Auburn.

That's going to make it hard for them to win by double-digits here on the road against Vanderbilt.  After all, they only won by 9 at home in their first meeting with the Commodores this season.  And Vanderbilt always played Tennessee tough with each of the last three meetings decided by 9 points or fewer.  They will be motivated for revenge here.

The underdog is 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 February games.  Plays against road favorites or PK (Tennessee) - after going under the total by 30 points or more total in their last five games, a top-level team (80% or higher) playing a losing team are 46-11 (80.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Murray State +3.5

The Drake Bulldogs have won five consecutive games but have been very fortunate, winning two in double-OT and one by 2 points.  They are coming off consecutive double-OT games against Northern Iowa at home and Valpo on the road and are out of gas.  They will now be playing their 4th game in 9 days and this is one of the worst spots I've seen for any team all season in college basketball.

Now they have to travel to face Murray State, which is coming off a blowout loss at Indiana State and will be fresh for this one as a result.  The Racers have one of the best home-court advantages in the entire country as they are 9-1 SU at home this season.  They are primed for an upset of the Bulldogs tonight.

Drake is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite or PK.  The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Murray State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games following a conference game.  Drake is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Racers are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.  Bet Murray State Tuesday.

15* Marquette/UConn Big East ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4

It's time to 'sell high' on the Marquette Golden Eagles after going 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Now they will face arguably their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The other candidates would be their road losses at Purdue, at Providence and at Xavier earlier this season all by 4 points or more.

Now they have to travel to face a pissed off UConn team that will be looking for revenge from a 76-82 loss at Marquette in their first meeting this season.  Marquette shot 50.8% from the field and 37.5% from 3 while UConn only shot 27.3% from 3.  Those roles will be reversed this time around.

UConn is 11-2 SU & 8-4-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  They shoot 47.6% overall and 36% from 3 at home this season.  This one has blowout written all over it tonight given the factors coming in.

The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Huskies are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Bet UConn Tuesday.

20* Duke/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes will be out for revenge from a 66-68 road loss at Duke on January 21st just two weeks ago.  The Hurricanes shot 34.9% from the field in that game and still only lost by 2, so they have some room for improvement at home this time around.

This is a terrible spot for the Duke Blue Devils.  They are coming off a 63-57 home win over their most hated rivals in the UNC Tar Heels on Saturday.  That makes this a letdown spot for them, especially after having already beaten the Hurricanes once this season.

Miami is a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season, while Duke is 2-4 SU in true road games.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Duke is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Duke.  These last four trends combined for a 23-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Temple +11.5

The Houston Cougars are 21-2 this season and the No. 3 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to from the betting public, and thus they are consistently too big of favorites.  That's the case tonight as 11.5-point road favorites at Temple.

Houston just lost outright as a 19-point home favorite to Temple, needed a late comeback to beat Cincinnati by 6 as a 14-point favorite, only beat South Florida by 6 as a 23-point favorite, only beat UCF by 6 as a 15-point favorite and fortunately pulled away late to win by 9 at Wichita State as a 12.5-point favorite.  The Cougars aren't invincible like these recent spreads are indicating.

I think this spread is too high again today for the revenge factor after losing 55-56 at home to Temple in the first meeting.  The Owls only shot 31.1% as a team in that game and still won outright, so there is actually room for improvement at least offensively.  And Temple is the single-most underrated team in the AAC this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have lost just one game all season by more than 12 points.

I like the spot for Temple as they have had an entire week to get rest and prepare to sweep this season series with Houston.  They have been off since January 28th, while Houston just played Wichita State on February 2nd and only has two days to get ready.  It will actually be the 5th game in 15 days for the Cougars, and only the 4th game in 18 days for the Owls.

Temple is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Owls are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Temple is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Bet Temple Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State ML -115

San Jose State head coach Tim Miles is one of the best in the country at turning around down programs.  He did it at Nebraska, and now he's doing it at SJSU guiding the Spartans to a 13-9 SU & 14-7 ATS record this season.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Now the Spartans take on one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Wyoming Cowboys, who are 7-14 SU & 7-12-1 ATS this season and playing out a down season.  They haven't had Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last season) all year and remain without him.  They clearly just aren't very good without their best player.

Wyoming is 1-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  San Jose State is 8-2 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season with recent wins over Air Force by 30, Fresno State by 10 and an upset win over UNLV.  The Spartans have a big rest and preparation advantage with their last game on January 28th, while Wyoming last played on January 31st.

San Jose State is 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season.  The Spartans are 7-1 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  San Jose State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss overall.  Bet San Jose State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +10.5

The Washington Huskies have been underrated for weeks now in going 4-5 SU but 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have done their best work on the road, losing by 3 as 19-point dogs at Arizona, by 8 as 9-point dogs at ASU, upsetting Colorado outright as 9-point dogs and only losing by 9 at UCLA as 17.5-point dogs.

Clearly, the Huskies can hang with the top teams in the Pac-12 on the road.  Now they catch the USC Trojans in a massive letdown spot following three consecutive wins over ASU, UCLA and Washington State.  They actually trailed 63-65 late against the Cougars on Thursday, but closed on a 17-5 run for a misleading 10-point win.  I think this number has been inflated a couple points too much as a result.

Washington is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a conference loss, including 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a conference road loss.  USC is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Huskies are 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +12

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 10-14 record.  But they rank 59th in Kenpom and are the 4th-most unlucky team in the country according to his rankings.  It's easy to see why as they have eight losses by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.

Washington State actually had a 2-point lead 65-63 over USC on Thursday, but managed to give up a 17-5 run to close in what was a brutal beat for us Cougars +7.5 backers.  The Cougars would be 23-1 ATS as +12 underdogs in their 24 games this season.  This number is way too high today.

That's especially the case when you consider they only lost 66-67 at home in their first meeting with UCLA.  They will be out for revenge for that 1-point defeat.  They take on a Bruins team that has come back down to reality of late going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 6 at Arizona, by 13 at USC and only beating Washington by 9 as 17.5-point favorites.

The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Five of the last seven meetings were decided by 10 points or less in this series.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +9

Valparaiso has quietly gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The four wins all came by 7 points or more and by a combined 49 points.  The two losses came by 11 at Northern Iowa and in OT at Missouri State.  They won both of their home games during this stretch.

Now the Beacons have their sights set on revenge from a 63-68 loss at Drake in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching way too many points at home in the rematch.  Asking Drake to win this game by double-digits to beat us is simply asking too much.

Drake is coming off a double-OT 88-81 home win over Northern Iowa.  That makes this a letdown spot and a flat spot after using so much energy to win that game on Wednesday.  The Bulldogs remain one of the most overrated teams in the country over the past two seasons.  

Drake is just 20-35 ATS in all games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS following a home win this season.  Drake is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Drake hasn't won any of its last eight meetings with Valparaiso by more than 7 points with the Beacons going 7-0-1 ATS in those eight games.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

20* Purdue/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK

The Indiana Hoosiers were rolling going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their previous five games before losing on the road at Maryland last time out.  That was clearly a lookahead spot and they were flat, looking ahead to this showdown against No. 1 Purdue.

Now this will be one of the best atmospheres all season in college basketball.  The Hoosiers will have a huge home-court advantage, and there's a reason this line is a PK against the No. 1 team.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers off nine consecutive wins including a pair of blowout home wins over Michigan State and Penn State in their last two games coming in.

Things haven't been so easy for Purdue on the road this season.  They have been fortunate to beat Nebraska by 3, Ohio State by 2, Michigan State by 1 and Michigan by 5.  Their other two road victories came against lowly Florida State and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test of the entire season to this point.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  The Boilermakers are 2-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Saturday games.  The Hoosiers are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Miami/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson ML -120

It's time to 'buy low' on the Clemson Tigers.  They were missing a few key players in recent games and underperformed because of it.  That includes their upset road loss at Boston College last time out.

Now the Tigers are fully healthy and back home today where they are a perfect 12-0 SU this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They host at Miami team that has been trading wins and losses in their last nine games.

Indeed, the Hurricanes are 0-4 SU in their last four games following a win.  They have not played well on the road recently going 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming at lowly Florida State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS int heir last nine home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Clemson is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Clemson on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-2 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season.  They are playing well coming in going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only two losses both coming on the road at Ohio State and at Michigan State.

The Hawkeyes have really been impressive in Big Ten home games beating Northwestern by 16, Rutgers by 11, Maryland by 14, Michigan by 9 and Indiana by 2 in their last five.  Now they host an Illinois team that is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.

Illinois is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall against a pretty soft schedule overall and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  They have played Nebraska twice, Wisconsin twice, and Minnesota during this stretch.  Against their three toughest opponents they were all three at home with wins over Michigan State and Ohio State and a 15-point loss to Indiana.

Iowa is 9-0 ATS at home with a total of 150 to 159.5 this season.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus game.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games.  Iowa is 45-20-3 ATS in its last 68 home games.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +115

Iowa State is going to be highly motivated for a victory today following consecutive road losses at Missouri and at Texas Tech.  They blew a 23-point lead to the Red Raiders and want to get that nasty taste out of their mouth.  They also want revenge on Kansas after losing 60-62 on the road to the Jayhawks in their first meeting this season on January 14th.

Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They are 11-0 SU at Hilton Coliseum this season and this will be one of the best atmospheres in any venue this season.  Kansas is primed for a letdown after beating Kentucky on the road and getting revenge on K-State at home last time out.

Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games following a close road loss by 3 points or less.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Virginia/VA Tech ACC No-Brainer on Virginia Tech PK

Virginia Tech is one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season with several close losses.  They have gotten much healthier recently and could go on a run similar to last season where they finished strong and won the ACC Tournament to make the big dance.  This team is fully capable of doing the same thing.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Virginia Cavaliers, who have won seven consecutive games coming in and has been one of the luckiest teams in the country in close games.  In fact, six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or fewer during this run.  Their luck runs out today.

Virginia Tech beat Virginia 62-53 and 65-51 in its last two home meetings with the Cavaliers.  The favorites is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Hokies will close the favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington State +7.5

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 10-13 record.  But they rank 58th in Kenpom and are the 4th-most unlucky team in the country according to his rankings.  It's easy to see why as they have eight losses by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.

One of their wins came 81-71 at home as 1-point favorites against USC in their first meeting this season.  Now the Cougars are catching 7.5-points in the rematch, which is too much.  That's especially the case with this being a huge letdown spot for USC off the upset win over UCLA last time out, a game I backed the Trojans in.  But I'll gladly fade them here in this spot.

USC is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite or PK.  The Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a home win by 10 points or more.  USC is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +18

The UCLA Bruins have come back down to reality with back-to-back losses at Arizona by 6 and at USC by 13.  This line is adjusted too much in their favor tonight for the bounce-back factor.  They may win, but beating Washington by 19-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

Washington is 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall and has played some of its best basketball on the road during this stretch.  The Huskies only lost by 3 as 19-point dogs at Arizona, lost by 8 as 9-point dogs at Arizona State and upset Colorado outright as 9-point dogs.

Now the Huskies have their sights set on revenge from a 49-74 home loss to UCLA as 11-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  But Washington shot just 34.5% from the field including 2-of-25 (8%) from 3-point range in that game, and that's not going to happen again.

Washington is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games following two consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following an ATS loss.  Washington is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Bet Washington Thursday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wichita State +12.5

The Houston Cougars are 20-2 this season and the No. 3 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are hard to live up to from the betting public, and thus they are consistently too big of favorites.  That's the case tonight as 12.5-point road favorites at Wichita State.

Houston just lost outright as a 19-point home favorite to Temple, needed a late comeback to beat Cincinnati by 6 as a 14-point favorite, only beat South Florida by 6 as a 23-point favorite and only beat UCF by 6 as a 15-point favorite.  The Cougars aren't invincible like these recent spreads are indicating.

Few teams have played Houston as tough as Wichita State in the American Athletic in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Shockers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Cougars.  They only lost by 2 in OT as 6.5-point home dogs, only lost by 10 as 11-point road dogs, upset them by 5 as 7-point home dogs and only lost by 7 as 11-point road dogs in those four meetings.  I think this one is decided by single-digits as well.

Wichita State is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games as a double-digit underdog.  The Shockers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Wichita State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida State +10.5

The Florida State Seminoles were a disaster in non-conference play this season.  They have been undervalued since.  The Seminoles have gone 5-6 SU but 8-3 ATS in conference play this season.  They have actually done their best work on the road of late, winning outright 84-71 as 4.5-point dogs at Notre Dame and 71-64 as 7.5-point dogs at Pitt in their last two road games.

The Seminoles should not be double-digit underdogs to the NC State Wolfpack tonight.  This feels like a letdown spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame by 3 as 9.5-point home favorites and Wake Forest by 2 as 3-point road dogs.  They also only beat Miami by 2 in their previous home game.  They remain without Jack Clark (9.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Dusan Mahorcic (8.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG).

The Seminoles are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Wolfpack are 17-35-3 ATS in their last 55 home games.  NC State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Villanova/Marquette UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Marquette beat Villanova 68-66 for just 134 combined points in their first meeting this season.  I expect another low scoring game that stays UNDER 146 combined points in the rematch as well.

Marquette could be without leading scorer Kam Jones (16.0 PPG), who is questionable after leaving the DePaul game early with a hip injury last time out.  Villanova is without G Jordan Longino (6.7 PPG).  These two injuries will also help us cash in this UNDER ticket.  

Villanova ranks 337th in adjusted tempo this season and always forces opponents to play in the half court.  Marquette will be forced to do the same, especially if they don't have Jones tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +10.5

Purdue is the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations that are going to be difficult for them to live up to.  Now they are double-digit favorites against Penn State tonight, and this number is a few notches too high.

I believe this is a letdown spot for the Boilermakers.  They already beat Penn State 76-63 on a neutral on January 8th.  They are coming off a big home win against Michigan State and have a big road game on deck at Indiana.  That makes this a sandwich spot, and I don't think we get their best effort as a result.

Penn State obviously wants revenge from that earlier defeat.  The Nittany Lions have been playing well going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games since that loss to Purdue.  All three wins came by double-digits, and one of the losses came by just 3 points at Wisconsin.

Purdue is 0-6 ATS following eight or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS following a win by 15 points or more this season.  Purdue is 0-7 ATS following a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when revenging a same-season loss.  These four trends combine for a 29-1 system backing the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kentucky -7.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are playing up to their potential finally in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss to Kansas, which came up with clutch 3 after clutch 3 over the weekend to escape with a victory.  They won by 16 at Vanderbilt, upset Tennessee by 7 as double-digit road dogs, beat Georgia by 14 and Texas A&M by 9 at home.

Now the Wildcats actually take a step down in class here against Ole Miss and this one has blowout written all over it with the way the Rebels are going right now.  Indeed, Ole Miss is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with its lone win come against South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC.  They lost by 22 at Oklahoma State, by 12 at home to Missouri, by 12 at Arkansas, were upset at home by Georgia, lost by 9 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Mississippi State, by 22 at Alabama nd were upset as 22.5-point home favorites to North Alabama during this stretch.

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing 80 points or more.  Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS vs. a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -7.5

The Boise State Broncos have been destroying teams of late.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points at New Mexico as 2.5-point underdogs.  They beat Utah State by 23 at home, UNLV by 18 on the road, Wyoming by 17 on the road, Nevada by 15 at home, Fresno by 10 at home and Colorado State by 21 at home.

Each of Boise State's last six wins have come by double-digits against some very good competition, and now they actually take a step down in class here against Air Force.  The Falcons are 3-6 in their last nine games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  I don't see them offering much resistance here against the Broncos, either.

Boise State won 85-59 at Air Force last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  Boise State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  The Broncos are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boise State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/Colorado State UNDER 143.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Colorado State beat UNLV 82-81 (OT) on January 14th just over two weeks ago.  That game was tied 70-70 at the end of regulation for 140 combined points.  I think the rematch stays UNDER 143.5 combined points as long as we don't get OT again.

I don't expect the Rams to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting, either.  They shot 50.8% as a team and 43.7% from 3-point range with 14 made 3-pointers.  They rank just 219th in the country in adjusted tempo and will slow it down playing at home tonight.

UNLV is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games when playing a losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  This number has simply been inflated due to that first meeting going to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on West Virginia/TCU UNDER 144

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  West Virginia just beat TCU 74-65 for 139 combined points less than two weeks ago on January 18th.  Both teams shot well in that game, too as the Mountaineers shot 46.3% while the Horned Frogs shot 52.4%.  The teams combined for 39 made free throws on 52 attempts as well.

Mike Miles Jr. scored 21 points in that first meeting for TCU.  Well, the Horned Frogs won't have their best player in Miles Jr. (18.1 PPG) for the rematch after suffering a knee injury against Mississippi State over the weekend.  He runs the show for them and is tremendous in transition.  The Horned Frogs won't be looking to push the tempo nearly as much without him.

West Virginia and TCU have combined for 144 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +15.5

Vanderbilt has been a tremendous bet as a road underdog.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs this season with two outright upsets and not a single loss by more than 9 points.  They lost by 3 at Missouri as 8.5-point dogs, by 9 at Tennessee as 16.5-point dogs and by 6 at Texas A&M as 9.5-point dogs.  They can stay within 15.5 points of Alabama tonight.

The Crimson Tide beat the Commodores 78-66 at Vanderbilt as 9-point favorites in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  I always like backing the road underdog in the rematch after losing the first meeting.  Vanderbilt shot 30.1% as a team and 6-of-33 (18.2%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only lost by 12.  I'd have to expect them to improve their shooting in the rematch.

The Commodores are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  Vanderbilt is 21-5-1 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Alabama is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 home games.  The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The underdog is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games revenging a loss where opponents scored 75 points or more.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Alabama is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 90 points or more.  These four trends combined for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Commodores.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +8

The Michigan State Spartans want revenge from a 63-64 home loss to Purdue on January 16th less than two weeks ago.  I think they can stay within 8 points on the road in the rematch and possibly pull off the upset, especially since they have a healthy Malik Hall for the rematch after not having him available in the first meeting.

Purdue has been one of the luckiest teams in the country winning most of their close games.  They have three wins by 5 points or less in their last four games with the exception being a blowout win over lowly Minnesota.  They only won by 1 at Michigan State, by 3 at home against Maryland and by 5 at Michigan.  They lost outright at home to Rutgers for their lone defeat this season.

Purdue is 0-7 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The Boilermakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Purdue is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Boilermakers today.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +10.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores don't get blown out often and will give the Texas A&M Aggies a run for their money tonight.  They have just one loss by more than 12 points all season and that came against Kentucky.  They only lost by 3 at Missouri, by 9 at Tennessee, by 5 at VCU, upset Temple and upset Georgia in their five true road games this season.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Texas A&M Aggies.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a brutal three-game stretch beating Florida by 2 at home, losing by 9 at Kentucky and upsetting Auburn on the road.  That makes this a natural letdown spot for the Aggies after handing Auburn its first home loss in ages.

Vanderbilt is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Commodores are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games following a loss.  Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in road games following three consecutive games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Commodores are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas +3

The Kansas Jayhawks have never lost more than three games in a row under Bill Self.  Well, they come in on a three-game losing streak with losses to Kansas State, TCU and Baylor.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory today.

We'll 'buy low' on the Jayhawks, who also want revenge from a home loss to Kentucky last season.  We'll 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while Kansas has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games.

Kentucky is 0-6 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Wildcats are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Fresno State +4.5

Fresno State has been great at home this season in conference play.  The Bulldogs upset Wyoming, New Mexico and UNLV at home with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Now I expect them to upset Utah State, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Utah State has lost its last three conference road games by double-digits.  The Aggies lost by 23 as 2-point dogs at Boise, by 15 as 2-point dogs at Nevada and by 10 as 7-point dogs at San Diego State.  They also lost at Fresno State last season.

Utah State is 14-40 ATS in its last 54 road games following a road loss.  The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following four consecutive games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers.  Utah State is 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with its two wins both coming at home by 4 over UNLV and by 1 over San Jose State.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah State/Fresno State UNDER 134.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the second meeting between Utah State and Fresno State this season.  The Aggies won 67-54 for just 121 combined points in their first meeting on December 31st that was played at a snail's pace.  It will be more of the same in the rematch.

Fresno State ranks 333rd in adjusted tempo, 255th in adjusted offense and 80th in adjusted defense.  They will control the tempo playing at home.  This had been a very low-scoring series as it is with the UNDER 5-0 in the last five meetings.  It would be 6-0 in the last six if not for OT.

Indeed, Utah State and Fresno State have combined for 121, 115, 108, 122, 130 and 122 points at the end of regulation in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of just 119.7 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than tonight's posted total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Texas/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Texas +6.5

This line should be much closer to PK.  Both Tennessee and Texas enter 17-3 this season but the difference is Texas played in the best conference in the country in the Big 12, while Tennessee plays in the SEC.  The Longhorns have played the tougher schedule and are more ready for this game.

The Longhorns have shown they can still be great without Chris Beard as they have won five of their last six games overall with their lone loss coming at Iowa State.  Kentucky won at Tennessee outright as a big underdog a few weeks ago, so it can be done.

Tennessee ranks 1st in the country in defensive efficiency, and while no denying they are a great defensive team, they have been fortunate with opposing teams missing open shots.  Opponents are only hitting 21.6% on 3-pointers against them and 25% of open 3's, which is just pure luck.  Texas scores 80.5 points per game this season and will test the Vols' D more than anyone has up to this point.  The Longhorns rank 12th in adjusted offense and 27th in adjusted defense.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +9.5

The Arizona Wildcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall and not blowing anyone out of late.  They are in a tough spot here following three consecutive wins over USC at home, UCLA at home and Washington State on the road.  Asking them to beat the Huskies by double-digits is asking too much.

Washington has been grossly undervalued of late.  The Huskies are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with only one loss by double-digits during this stretch.  They only lost by 3 at Arizona, by 8 at Arizona State, they upset Colorado on the road and upset Arizona State at home.  Now they want revenge from that 3-point road loss at Arizona on January 5th, which proved they could hang with the Wildcats.

Washington is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following three consecutive games as an underdog.  The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams that make eight or more 3-pointers per game.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Washington Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin +2

It's time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers.  They have lost five of their last six games overall and have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games.  Now they are catching points at home to Illinois and will be out for revenge on the Fighting Illini after losing 69-79 to them on January 7th on the road.

But the Badgers didn't have their best player in Tyler Wahl for that game, and they have struggled without him.  He is back now and the Badgers are as healthy as they have been in a long time and looking to make a run.

We'll 'sell high' on Illinois, which is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall against an easy schedule.  Four of the six games were at home and the two road wins came at lowly Nebraska and Minnesota, arguably the two worst teams in the Big Ten.  They also lost at Northwestern in their road game prior.

Wisconsin is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when the line is +3 to -3.  Illinois is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  The Fighting Illini are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games after going under the total in their previous game.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati +14

Houston has actually been way better on the road than it has been at home this season.  Let's just look at Houston's recent home games.  They lost outright as 19-point favorites to Temple, only beat South Florida by 6 as 23-point favorites and only beat UCF by 6 as 15-point favorites in three of their last four home games.

Cincinnati wants revenge from a 59-72 home loss to Houston in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for the Bearcats, who have gone 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Bearcats have just one loss by more than 13 points this season, so they don't get blown out easily.

The Bearcats have a big advantage in rest and preparation as they come in on five days' rest while the Cougars come in on two days' rest after playing a road game at UCF on Wednesday, while the Bearcats last played on Sunday.

The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Cincinnati is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5

The USC Trojans are improving rapidly.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and have a huge home-court advantage, going 9-1 SU at home this season.  Now they want revenge from a 58-60 road loss at UCLA in their first meeting this season on January 5th.

The Trojans come back as 5-point home underdogs in the rematch, and I think they have a great chance to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  UCLA is coming off a loss at Arizona to end a 14-game winning streak.  

I always like fading teams after having a long winning streak snapped because there tends to be a hangover effect in that next game.  That's especially the case for UCLA here as they were way more motivated to face Arizona than they will be to beat USC for a second time this season.

The Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  USC is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with UCLA.  Bet USC Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +6.5

Seattle is 16-4 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  That has played out here of late in conference play with the schedule getting easier for them.  The Redhawks are now 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with four wins by 15 points or more.

Sam Houston State is also a quality team at 15-5 this season with some impressive non-conference wins.  But the Bearkats should not be favored by 6.5 points over Seattle tonight.  This game should be much closer to PK, so we'll take advantage and back the value on the road underdog Redhawks.

Sam Houston State is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Seattle is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games.  Seattle beat Sam Houston State 78-63 last season and brought back almost their entire team this season.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Bet Seattle Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on SMU/Memphis UNDER 151

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between SMU and Memphis.  Just looking at recent head-to-head history, this total has been set too high at 151 points.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings but would be 9-0 in the last nine meetings with a total of 151.  Memphis and SMU have combined for 148 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 134.6 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is over 16 points less than this total.  They have combined for 133 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings as well.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State -2

Michigan State is 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS at home this season with one of the losses coming to No. 1 ranked Purdue by a single point.  Iowa is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with losses to Nebraska by 16, Penn State by 4 and Ohio State by 16.  The Spartans should be bigger home favorites over the Hawkeyes tonight.

Michigan State is 17-2 SU & 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Iowa.  The Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after playing a game as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Michigan State Thursday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler/Providence UNDER 139.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Providence beat Butler 72-52 for just 124 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 29th. Points will be hard to come by in the rematch as well tonight.

This has been an UNDER series. Butler and Providence have combined for 137 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last nine meetings. That makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 139.5-point total. Enough said. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on South Florida/Temple UNDER 140

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between South Florida and Temple. Temple won the first meeting 68-64 for just 132 combined points. The books have set the bar too high in the rematch with a 140-point total, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Temple and South Florida have combined for 132, 122, 101, 144 and 112 points in the last five meetings. They have averaged just 122.2 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is 18 points less than tonight's posted total. There's a ton of value on the UNDER tonight.

Temple is 12-0 UNDER in its last 12 Wednesday games. The UNDER is 9-3 in Owls last 12 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +17

The Georgia Bulldogs are off to a 13-6 SU & 10-9 ATS start in former Florida head coach Mike White's first season on the job. He is exceeding expectations already, and the Bulldogs are undervalued as 17-point road underdogs to Tennessee tonight.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Volunteers, who are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall and coming off a pair of double-digit road wins over LSU and Mississippi State. They have a huge game on deck against Texas Saturday and could be looking ahead to that one.

Georgia has had Tennessee's number, going 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Georgia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +17.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Florida Gators tonight. They have won four of their last five while going 4-0 ATS in their last four. They are now laying too many points to South Carolina tonight.

Conversely, we'll 'buy low' on the Gamecocks, who are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. This run followed up a 71-68 upset at Kentucky as 20-point dogs to flash their potential. They can hang with Florida, too.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is actually 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. South Carolina upset Florida as 7.5, 11.5 and 10.5-point dogs in its last three trips to Gainesville. Bet South Carolina Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +6.5

The Temple Owls are in the ultimate letdown spot. They are coming off a massive 56-55 upset road win at No. 1 ranked Houston. It's only human nature for them to have a letdown following one of the biggest wins in program history.

That's especially the case since they play a South Florida team that they've already beaten 68-64 on the road in their first meeting this season on January 4th. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat them a second time.

South Florida is playing its best basketball of the season of late and is ready to pull off this upset. The Bulls upset ECU 81-70 as road underdogs and UCF 85-72 as home underdogs. They also only lost by 6 at Houston as 23-point dogs in going 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

South Florida is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season. USF is 36-17-1 ATS in its last 54 road games. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet South Florida Wednesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Murray State/Southern Illinois UNDER 132

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 2nd meeting between Southern Illinois and Murray State this season. The Salukis won 63-57 on the road for 120 combined points in their first meeting this season.

It will be more of the same in the rematch today with this game being played at a snail's pace. Southern Illinois ranks 323rd in adjusted tempo and 37th in adjusted defense and will control the tempo playing at home. Murray State ranks just 219th in adjusted tempo.

Southern Illinois is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. The Salukis are 21-5 UNDER in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 138.5

This is a very high total for any game involving the Oklahoma Sooners. They are a dead nuts UNDER team, raking 325th in adjusted tempo and 57th in adjusted defense this season. They take on a TCU team that ranks 14th in adjusted defense.

It tends to be a defensive battle when these two teams get together. Indeed, Oklahoma and TCU have combined for 135, 100 and 128 points in their last three meetings, respectively. All three finished UNDER this 138.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Penn State/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +6.5

This is a very evenly matched game tonight. Penn State is 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS while Rutgers is 13-6 SU & 13-6 ATS. The Scarlet Knights deserve some respect for home-court advantage, but this line should be 3 or less, not 6.5. There's clearly value with the road underdog Nittany Lions.

Penn State is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Rutgers with its lone loss coming by a single point, 58-59 as 5.5-point road dogs. I think this game comes down to the final possession, too.

The Nittany Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Penn State Tuesday.

15* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Virginia Tech Hokies tonight. They have gone 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven losses by 10 points or fewer, including five losses by 5 points or less.

But the Hokies are now as healthy as they have been all season. They return home from three consecutive brutal road games at Virginia, Syracuse and Clemson. And I expect them to put it on the Duke Blue Devils, who have been one of the most overrated teams in the country because of the name on their uniform.

Duke is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Blue Devils have been terrible on the road, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season. Their lone win came by a single point at Boston College as 8-point favorites, and they lost by 11 as 6.5-point favorites at Wake Forest, by 24 as 4.5-point favorites at NC State and by 8 as 1-point favorites at Clemson.

The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* Michigan State/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 138.5

This will be an early, sleepy start time for a Big Ten matchup Sunday at 12:00 EST between the Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers.  I expect points to be hard to come by for both teams for a couple of reasons.

The Spartans are without Malik Hall (9.9 PPG, 52.5% shooting) right now.  They have gone UNDER the total in their two games since losing him, falling 63-64 to Purdue for 127 combined points and beating Rutgers 70-57 for 127 combined points.  The Spartans have been held to 70 points or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

The Indian Hoosiers are without Race Thompson (8.4 PPG, 49.5% shooting) and Xavier Johnson (9.9 PPG, 37% 3-pointers) right now which has hampered their offense as well.  They are coming off an aberration shooting performance making 61.8% against Illinois last time out, which has inflated this total.  They were held to 63 and 66 points in their previous two games by Wisconsin and Penn State, respectively.

Michigan State and Indiana have combined for 137, 122, 149, 130 and 125 points in their last five meetings.  As you can see, four of the five meetings have seen less than this 138.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Butler/UConn UNDER 137.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting of the season between Butler and UConn.  The Huskies won the first meeting 68-46 on December 17th for just 114 combined points.  Oddsmakers have set the total too high for the rematch Sunday, which will be an early 12:00 EST sleepy start time, which also favors the UNDER.

UConn is one of the best defensive teams in the country holding opponents to 63.9 points per game and 40.4% shooting.  It's safe to say the Huskies will be in a foul mood after losing five of their last six games overall, and I expect it show on the defensive end more than anything with max intensity.

The same can be said for Butler, which will be highly motivated for revenge while also looking to bounce back from losing three of their last four.  The Bulldogs allow 66.6 points per game and 43.7% shooting this season.  But they have been atrocious on offense, scoring 61 or fewer points in six of their last nine games overall, including 56 or fewer in five of those.

Butler and UConn has squared off five times as Big East opponents over the last three seasons.  They have combined for 135 or fewer points in all five meetings and an average of just 125.2 combined points per game.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Bulldogs last nine games overall.  Butler is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog this season.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 UNDER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Santa Clara/St. Mary's UNDER 135

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Santa Clara and St. Mary's this season.  St. Mary's won 67-64 on December 31st for 131 combined points in their first meeting.  It will be another defensive struggle in the rematch.

St. Mary's is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games after a game where it outrebounded its last opponent by 15 boards or more.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Broncos last 13 games overall.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Santa Clara +12.5

Santa Clara wants revenge from a 64-67 home loss to St. Mary's in their first meeting on December 31st as 6-point underdogs.  Now the books have moved this number 6.5 points to St. Mary's -12.5, which is too big of an adjustment for home-court advantage.

The reason the books have over-adjusted is because St. Mary's is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and making backers a lot of money.  But it's time to 'sell high' on them now, and it's time to back a Broncos team that has consistently been disrespected from oddsmakers.  The Broncos are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with their two losses during this stretch coming by 3 to St. Mary's and by 5 to Gonzaga.

Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings with St. Mary's.  Each of the last eight meetings were decided by 11 points or less, and each of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech/Clemson UNDER 142

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Virginia Tech and Clemson this season.  Clemson won the first meeting 68-65 for just 133 combined points on the road on January 4th.  That total was set at 136.5, and now we are getting a 142-point total in the rematch.  The books have made a big mistake adjusting this total up.

Virginia Tech and Clemson have combined for 141 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine consecutive meetings, which makes for a 9-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 142-point total.  Each of the last eight meetings have seen 133 or fewer combined points at the end or regulation and an average of just 125.1 combined points per game, which is 17 points less than this posted total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State ML -115

The Wyoming Cowboys are broken this season.  They are 5-13 on the season including 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have a ton of key injuries they are dealing with, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  And books continue to over-adjust for their home-court advantage, which has been non-existent this season.

Colorado State beat Fresno State by 22, upset UNLV on the road and played a very good San Diego State team to a 6-point game last time out in three of its last four games.  The Rams are by far the superior team here and should be favored on the road.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee/LSU UNDER 131

The Tennessee Vols are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense and are holding opponents to 54.2 points per game and 33.6% shooting, which is 17 points per game less than their season averages.  But the Vols aren't a very efficiency offensive team, whooting 44.3% as a team.

The LSU Tigers rank 95th in adjusted defense and are holding opponents to 67.1 points per game and 42.9% shooting.  The Tigers shoot just 42.7% as a team and will struggle to get any buckets against Tennessee.  LSU Has scored 49, 66, 56 and 56 points in its last four games coming in, respectively.

Tennessee is 6-0 UNDER after going over the total in its previous game this season.  LSU is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games vs. a top-level team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul/Providence UNDER 147.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between DePaul and Providence this season.  Providence won 74-59 for just 133 combined points in that first meeting while shooting 48% from the field and 50% from 3-point range.  It's hard seeing them shoot that well again, and we have a total of 147.5 here which is 14.5 points more than what they combined for in that first meeting.

In fact, DePaul and Providence have combined for 133 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings.  They have averaged just 122.4 combined points at the end of regulation in those five meetings, which is roughly 25 points less than this posted total.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* CBB UPSET GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona +1

The UCLA Bruins have won 14 consecutive games and were fortunate to win four of their last six as they needed some heroics late.  Their luck runs out this week and the streak stops here in their toughest game of the season at Arizona.

The Wildcats are 10-1 at home this season and it will be a raucous atmosphere this afternoon in Tuscon.  Arizona won its final two meetings with Arizona last season 76-66 at home and 84-76 in the Pac-12 Tournament.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

UCLA is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following three consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -4

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, so we are buying at the very bottom on them as short home favorites over the Iowa Hawkeyes today.  It's safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with three of those wins coming at home.  They are 1-2 in true road games in Big Ten play this season with losses by 16 at Nebraska and by 4 at Penn State plus an upset win at Rutgers.

The Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Iowa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Bet Ohio State Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Kansas State Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Texas Tech today.  The Red Raiders are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are still in search of their first Big 12 victory with five of the six losses coming by 7 points or fewer, so it's not like they haven't been competitive.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Kansas State Wildcats.  They are 16-2 SU & 12-5 ATS this season.  The Wildcats are coming off an upset win over rival Kansas, so that makes this a massive letdown spot now.  They have been celebrating that win since Tuesday and won't be fully focused for Texas Tech today.

Texas Tech has won 8 of its last 10 meetings with Kansas State outright.  The Red Raiders have a great shot to pull off the upset today, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on TCU +7.5

The TCU Horned Frogs are 14-4 this season with all four losses coming by single-digits, including three by 4 points or fewer.  They won't bet getting blown out by Kansas today, either.

The Jayhawks have proven to be very vulnerable of late, especially at home.  They have gone 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They won by 14 as 21.5-point home favorites over Harvard, won by 2 as 10-point home favorites over Oklahoma State, won by 4 as 10.5-point home favorites over Oklahoma and won by 2 as 7.5-point home favorites over Iowa State.

TCU beat Kansas 74-64 as 6-point home dogs and only lost by 4 as 11.5-point road dogs in their two regular season meetings last year, and Kansas went on to win the National Championship.  The Horned Frogs are 24-9-4 ATS in their last 37 games vs. a team with a winning record.

TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Horned Frogs are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.  The Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet TCU Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +11

The Stanford Cardinal are 5-12 this season and should not be double-digit favorites against anyone in the Pac-12, including Oregon State.  The Cardinal are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall which included a 22-point loss to Cal and a 17-point loss to Washington.

Oregon State is also 0-5 SU in its last five games, but has been more competitive going 3-2 ATS.  The Beavers only lost by 9 as 13.5-point dogs at Oregon, by 12 as 15-point home dogs to Arizona and by 5 as 9-point home dogs to Arizona State.

Home-court advantage has not mattered in this series.  The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Oregon State pulled the 68-63 upset as 6-point road dogs in 2020 and the 73-62 upset as 5-point road dogs in 2021.  

The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after playing two consecutive games as home underdogs.  Stanford is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 60 points or less last game.  Roll with Oregon State Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are one of the most improved teams in the country at 15-3 this season.  They are getting disrespected here as 5-point home underdogs to UCLA.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Bruins, who are riding a 13-game winning streak following consecutive losses to Illinois and Baylor.  I think this is where the streak comes to an end.  They have survived in three of their last five games beating Washington State by 1, USC by 2 and needing a double-digit comeback to beat Colorado at home last time out.  Their luck runs out tonight.

UCLA is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after winning 12 or more of its last 15 games.  Arizona State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Bruins are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The home team is 17-6-2 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  A bad ASU team upset UCLA 87-84 as 10-point home dogs last season.  Take Arizona State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Drake -7

The Drake Bulldogs are finally starting to play up to their potential. They have won three consecutive games to improve to 14-5 this season including a pair of blowout home wins over Murray State by 18 and Bradley by 25.

The Bulldogs are 9-0 at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the conference. Now they'll be seeking revenge from a 49-52 loss at Missouri State in their first meeting this season. This will play out much differently the 2nd time around with the Bulldogs at home, and I expect a blowout victory in their favor.

Missouri State is 2-5 SU in true road games this season including losses at St. Mary's by 20, at Belmont by 13 and at Illinois State by 10. Those latter two losses came in their last two road games and were very poor performances as both Belmont and Illinois State are down this season. Roll with Drake Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Florida/Texas A&M UNDER 138

The Florida Gators and Texas A&M Aggies will be playing in a rematch from a 66-63 win by the Aggies on January 4th which saw just 129 combined points. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and I expect more of the same in the rematch here just two weeks later.

Texas A&M is a very good defensive team allowing just 66.4 points per game and 40.4% shooting on the season. Florida has been nearly identical, allowing just 66.4 points per game on 40.3% shooting. Points will be hard to come by in this rematch.

Florida is 9-1 UNDER vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The UNDER is 8-1 in Gators last nine games overall. The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six home games. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State ML -125

The Indiana State Sycamores are 13-6 this season and will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following two consecutive conference losses to Southern Illinois and Missouri State. I look for them to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.

Indiana State is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Sycamores are 21-5 SU in their last 26 home meetings with the Braves.

Bradley is 2-4 SU in true road games this season with one of those wins coming by 2 at SIU-Edwardsville as a 6-point favorites. They lost by 25 at Drake as a 2.5-point dog, lost by 9 at Murray State as a 5.5-point dog, lost by 3 at Belmont as a 1-point favorite and lost by 22 at Utah State as a 7.5-point dog.

The Braves are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games. The home team is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet Indiana State on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +10

Tulane is playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Green Wave have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with home wins over Memphis by 7, Tulsa by 16 and UCF by 8 as well as road wins over Temple by 11 and SMU by 9.

Now the Green Wave are ready to give the No. 1 ranked Houston Cougars a run for their money as double-digit home underdogs tonight. Tulane is 8-1 at home this season and has a big home-court advantage.

Houston has been vulnerable of late winning by 6 at home over UCF as 15-point favorites and by 6 at home over USF as 23-point favorites. They can't be trusted to be laying double-digits on the road here. You're definitely paying a tax to back the Cougars at this point with their No. 1 ranking and it's time to 'sell high' on them. Take Tulane Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +7.5

The Butler Bulldogs are coming off one of their most complete performances of the season in a 79-71 upset home win over Villanova as 3.5-point dogs. Now they are catching too many points at home against Creighton on Tuesday.

Butler wants revenge from a 56-78 road loss at Creighton as 8-point dogs. Now the books have set the number almost exactly the same as the first meeting without adjusting for home-court advantage. That's great value with the Bulldogs at home.

Creighton is 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season. Butler is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game. The Bluejays are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Bet Butler Tuesday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +3.5

The Michigan State Spartans are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and ready to pull off the upset over the Purdue Boilermakers at home today. They should not be catching 3.5 points here.

Purdue is 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season. The Boilermakers only beat FSU by 10 as 16-point favorites, Nebraska by 3 in OT as 7.5-point favorites and Ohio State by 2 as 1.5-point dogs. But Zed Key got hurt early for Ohio State and they were behind the eight ball.

The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with the lone loss coming by a single point. The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Purdue is 0-6 ATS following a home win by 10 points or more this season. Take Michigan State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +6

The Memphis Tigers continue to be grossly overvalued today as 6-point road favorites at Temple.  Memphis is 4-2 SU but 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall, losing both true road games outright as favorites at Tulane and at UCF.  They are on upset alert again today against Temple.

The Owls have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall continually getting disrespected by oddsmakers.  They are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have beaten the likes of Villanova, VCU and Cincinnati at home this season.

Temple is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Owls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Temple Sunday.

20* Ohio State/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State +4

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall including a very bad upset home loss to Minnesota.  But Ohio State was missing one of its most important players for two of those games in Zed Key (12.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG), and he is back healthy now.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers.  The Scarlet Knights have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost their last home game to Iowa by 11 so they can certainly be beaten at home.

Ohio State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 meetings with Rutgers.  The last two meetings were decided by 1 and 2 points.  Rutgers hasn't won any of its last nine meetings with Ohio State by more than 3 points, making for a 9-0 system backing the Buckeyes pertaining to this 4-point spread.  Take Ohio State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +8

It's time to 'sell high' on the St. Mary's Gaels after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They played only one true road game during this stretch and only won 67-64 as 6-point favorites at Santa Clara.  Now they are laying 8 points at San Francisco tonight, and this line is too high.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on San Francisco after going 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  It has been a brutal schedule with road losses to Santa Clara and Portland, as well as home losses to Gonzaga and San Diego.  Keep in mind they only lost to Gonzaga by 2 at home, so they have shown their potential.

Each of the last three meetings between the Dons and Gaels have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  St. Mary's is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

20* New Mexico/San Diego State MWC No-Brainer on New Mexico +8

New Mexico is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Lobos are 15-2 this season with their two losses coming by 7 and 4 points.  So they haven't lost by 8-plus points this season, making for a perfect 17-0 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.

San Diego State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  The Aztecs are 13-3 SU but just 4-10-1 ATS in lined games.  And this will be one of their stiffest tests of the season tonight.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado +12

This line is inflated tonight.  UCLA is getting too much respect for its current 12-game winning streak, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bruins.  They now take on a game Colorado team that doesn't get blown out.

Colorado is 11-7 this season with just one loss by more than 10 points, which was a 13-point defeat.  So they have only lost by this kind of margin once in 18 games this season, making for a 17-1 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this 12-point spread.

Each of the last six meetings between Colorado and UCLA were decided by 12 points or less, including five by single-digits.  Colorado hasn't lost any of its last 10 meetings with UCLA by more than 12 points, making for a 10-0 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this 12-point spread.  Take Colorado Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2.5

The Drake Bulldogs are showing great value as short home favorites over the Bradley Braves tonight.  This is a night game and it will be a great atmosphere and an even bigger home-court advantage for the Bulldogs than normal.  Drake is 8-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 22.1 points per game.

Bradley is coming off three straight poor performances on the road.  They lost by 9 at Murray State as 5.5-point favorites, lost by 3 at Belmont as 1-point favorites and only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 2 as 6-point favorites in their last three true road games.  This is a much stiffer test for the Braves than any of those three games were.

Bradley is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Braves are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Drake Saturday.

20* Duke/Clemson ACC No-Brainer on Clemson ML -120

Clemson has gone 14-3 this season and quietly has won 10 of its last 11 games overall.  The Tigers are one of the most improved teams in the country, but they don't get the respect they deserve, which has been evident during their 5-1 ATS run over their last six games.

That continues to be the case as they are basically a PK at home to Duke.  This isn't your father's Blue Devils without Coach K.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall as it consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers due to the name on the uniform.  That includes outright losses at Wake Forest by 11 and at NC State by 24 despite being favored, plus a 1-point win at Boston College in its last three road games coming in.

Clemson is 9-0 SU at home this season.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Tigers tonight.  Roll with Clemson on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and playing as well as almost anyone in the country right now.  They upset Baylor by 15 as 2-point home dogs, upset Oklahoma by 3 as 3.5-point road dogs, upset TCU by 2 as 5.5-point road dogs and blasted Texas Tech by 34 as 4.5-point home favorites in their last four games.

Now they take on a Kansas team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers at home of late due to their current 9-game winning streak.  But they nearly lost their last two home games, beating Oklahoma State by 2 as 10-point favorites and Oklahoma by 4 as 10.5-point home favorites.  They needed some late heroics to win both those games, and they are going to need some late heroics to survive the Cyclones today, too.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more last game.  Kansas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine January home games.  The Jayhawks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisville +13

The Louisville Cardinals have been a great bet over the last couple weeks due to their 2-15 record.  But they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by 13 points or fewer during this stretch.

In fact, the Cardinals have just one loss by more than 13 points in their last eight games, which was at Kentucky in a game they covered.  Now they are catching 13 points at home to a North Carolina team that could be without their best player in Armando Bacot (17.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG), who left the Virginia game with an ankle injury last time out and it changed the game.  Virginia went on a big run thereafter and won 65-58.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Louisville) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a team that wins less than 20% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Tar Heels are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with Louisville Saturday.