Winning Sports Picks

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB -6.5

Remember when UAB beat Iowa State as a No. 15 vs. No. 2 seed last year in the NCAA Tournament? Well, the Blazers brought all five starters back from that team, and they promptly dominated Conference USA this season with a 26-5 record overall and a 16-2 mark in conference action.

Now the Blazers must win the Conference USA Tournament to make the big dance again, so they will certainly be focused and ready to go today.  They come in rested having last played on March 5th, while their opponent in Western Kentucky just played yesterday in an 84-76 win over North Texas.

That edge in rest and preparation is a big reason why I like the Blazers today.  But another reason to love the Blazers is that this will be a home game for them played in Birmingham, Alabama.  UAB is 16-0 at home this season.  The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between these teams as well.

UAB is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UAB is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  Take UAB Thursday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are arguably the best team in the country.  They went 25-6 this season and are playing to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  I like their chances of winning going away against Pitt in their ACC Tournament opener Thursday afternoon.

The biggest reason to love UNC is that it comes in rested having last played on March 5th in a 76-72 road win over Duke.  Meanwhile, the Pitt Panthers just played a hard-fought game yesterday against Syracuse and won 72-71 to advance.

So, the Tar Heels have a massive edge in rest and preparation.  Also, I don't think this is a good spot for Pitt mentally.  That game against Syracuse was essentially a play-in game in terms of the NCAA Tournament as both were squarely on the bubble.  Now that they know they are in the big dance, the Panthers may let up here.  It's also not a good matchup for the Panthers, who lost 64-85 at UNC in their only meeting this season.

Pitt is 0-8 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game this season.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing UNC.  Also, the Panthers are 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win.  Roll with North Carolina Thursday.

15* ASU/Oregon State Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -2

The Oregon State Beavers are currently the second team on Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out" line, which means they wouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.  It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated to put themselves on the right side of the bubble with a win over Arizona State Wednesday.

The Beavers have done their part here down the stretch by going 6-3 in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to Cal, Oregon and USC.  They also have road wins over Stanford and UCLA, as well as home victories over Utah, Colorado, Washington and Washington State during this stretch.  So, they are playing very well.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which was the second-worst team in the Pac-12 this season ahead of only lowly Washington State.  The Sun Devils went 5-13 in conference play this season with two of those victories coming against Washington State.  They are 1-5 in their last six games overall with four of those losses coming by double-digits, so they aren't playing well at all.

ASU is 2-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Sun Devils are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games.  The Beavers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oregon State Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +4

The Virginia Tech Hokies have a huge advantage coming into this game and should not be underdogs to Florida State.  They got to watch the Seminoles beat Boston College yesterday, which is 0-18 in ACC play this season.  They have the scouting advantage and the rest advantage coming in.

The Hokies finished with a winning record (10-8) in the ACC for the first time in the last five years this season.  Buzz Williams clearly has this program on the rise, and the Hokies are certainly playing their best basketball of the season coming into the ACC Tournament.

Indeed, Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Three of those wins came by double-digits, including an 83-73 victory over this same Seminoles team as well as a 77-62 triumph over highly-ranked Miami in the regular season finale.

Florida State is 0-6 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week this season.  VA Tech is 14-4 ATS in all conference games this year.  The Hokies are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season.  Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* Mountain West Tournament No-Brainer on Air Force +11

Simply put, the UNLV Rebels are not 11 points better than the Air Force Falcons on a neutral court.  That will show today as the Falcons give the Rebels a run for their money, possibly winning this game outright.

I realize this is more of a home game for UNLV, but I think they have over-adjusted the line for this game being played in Las Vegas.  The Rebels just can't be trusted witht he way they are playing right now.  They have a 12-point loss to Boise State and a 36-point loss to San Diego State in two of their last three games.

Air Force really came on strong toward the end of the season in going 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Falcons pulled off upsets wins over Wyoming (by 8) as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State (by 8) as 11.5-point dogs, UNLV (by 5) as 8.5-point dogs and New Mexico (by 4) as 8-point dogs during this stretch.

The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* ACC Tournament Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston College +13

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Boston College Eagles right now.  That's because this team somehow managed to go 0-17 in ACC play.  But with that record comes zero expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers, which is why the Eagles are catching too many points here as 13-point dogs to Florida State.

The Eagles came very close to winning a couple games down the stretch.  They only lost 71-76 as 9.5-point home dogs to Georgia Tech, and then they lost 72-73 on a buzzer-beater as 15-point road dogs at NC State in two of their final three games.  They don't want to go winless in the ACC, so they will be laying it all on the line here with the pride factor against Florida State.

The Seminoles have no business being 13-point favorites against anyone in the ACC.  But they come in overvalued due to going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their final two games.  Remember, they had lost five straight prior to that stretch.  The Seminoles went 8-10 in ACC play this season, but only two of those wins came by more than 11 points.  They just don't blow anyone out.

This has been an extremely closely-contested series of late.  In fact, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and I believe this one will be, too.  The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss.  Take Boston College Tuesday.

20* Big Ten No Brainer on Wisconsin +6

The Badgers are a different team from the one that lost by six at home to Purdue back on December 29th.  Since beating Michigan State on January 17th they really turned a corner, winning 11 of 12 games.  Their sole loss was to the Spartans, a team that is without a doubt the best the Big 10 has to offer.

The Boilermakers on the other hand have been over-rated by oddsmakers for too long.  Now just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, they continue to get too much respect here.  

Purdue hasn’t been turning teams over and that is going to give opponents too many opportunities to score buckets.  If you go back over the last four seasons, home favorites forcing 12 or less turnovers per game after four straight games forcing opponents to turn the ball over 11 times or fewer are 61-110 (64.3%) ATS.

20* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal -5

Cal isn't getting enough respect in this game coming off their close loss at Arizona Thursday night while Arizona State is getting a little too much love after ending their four game losing streak against Stanford.

The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning 7 straight before that loss to the Wildcats and they have covered 8 straight games.  Arizona State on the other hand isn't very good, they haven't won as an underdog since December 16th, so I don't think we have to worry about the Sun Devils pulling an upset in this one.  

Cal has been dominating teams on the boards this year, averaging 40.1 to giving up only 33.  That puts us in a nice little situation Arizona State is just 11-22 ATS against teams who outrebound their opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons.

Take the Bears

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +11

The Cyclones have been struggling recently, but I think they have a great shot at an upset against the Jayhawks on Satruday.  Iowa State has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head as they seem to have their number.

Kansas has already secured the top spot in the Big 12, and are over-valued in this spot after winning their last 11 games, covering 10 of those 11.  In fact, the Jayhawks haven't lost since their trip to Ames where they were a one point underdog.  A 12-point swing from away to home is a little too much, and I think Iowa State is showing some excellent value here catching double digits.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -3

It's senior day for the Baylor Bears and I think they come out ready to play here against West Virginia.  We are in must win territory as a third loss in four games would probably drop them down to a six seed come tournament time.

West Virginia has played very good this season but the road has been more difficult for them.  Plus, they have won the last three games despite allowing Iowa State to shoot 51%, shooting only 36.5% against Oklahoma State, and giving up 56.1% shooting against Texas Tech.  

I think Baylor will be able to handle the press in front of the home crowd and come away with a victory here today.

Take Baylor

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -2.5

I have backed the Northern Illinois Huskies with plenty of success this season when playing at home.  I'll continue to do so tonight as they are only 2.5-point favorites over the Ball State Cardinals in a game that I believe they are going to run away with.

The Huskies have two huge reasons to be motivated.  First, it's their final home game of the season and Senior Night.  And second, they want revenge from a tough 59-63 loss at Ball State on February 19 just two weeks ago in their first meeting.  That was a rare loss in this series for NIU, which had won its previous four meetings with Ball State.

But the biggest reason to back Northern Illinois is the fact that it simply does not lose at home.  It is 16-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.2 points per game.  They have beaten several of the top teams in the MAC at home, including Akron, Ohio and Central Michigan.

The Huskies are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 home games.  Northern Illinois is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 49 games vs. MAC opponents.  The Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -5.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are the hottest team in the Missouri Valley Conference right now.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, which includes road wins over the two best teams in the conference in Wichita State and Evansville.  They are the team that nobody wants to play in the MVC Tournament.

But that's the poor fortune that the Southern Illinois Salukis are faced with Friday.  And with the way the Salukis are playing, they don't stand much of a chance.  They are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Three of their wins came at home against three of the worst teams in the conference in Drake, Bradley and Missouri State.

This has been a pretty one-sided series with Northern Iowa winning three of the last four meetings.  They won by 16 at home, by 7 on the road, and by 9 at home in their three wins.  Their only loss came all the way back on January 2nd by a final of 75-73 on the road, or by a mere two points.  The Panthers are a much better team today than they were on January 2nd.

Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  UNI is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Salukis are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  These four trends combine for a 27-2 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Friday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -7

The South Carolina Gamecocks are actually dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament in spite of their 23-6 record this season.  That's because they played a weak non-conference schedule, but I've seen enough from this team to know that they belong in the big dance.  But they cannot afford a home loss to Georgia tonight, so look for them to put their best foot forward here.

So the Gamecocks not only have NCAA Tournament motivation, they also will be motivated on for Senior Night and their final home game.  This veteran team has been through a lot with Frank Martin, and they certainly want to take care of business in their final game in Columbia.  That shouldn't be a problem considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

Indeed, South Carolina is 15-1 at home this season with its only loss to Kentucky.  A whopping 13 of those 15 wins have come by 9 points or more as well, which is why I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points here.  The Gamecocks also want revenge for a poor 56-69 loss at Georgia in their first meeting.  The last time these teams squared off in Columbia, the Gamecocks rolled to a 67-50 victory.

Conversely, Georgia is just 2-8 in true road games this season.  Its only two road wins this season have come against Missouri and Mississippi State, which are two of the worst teams in the SEC.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

South Carolina is 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  South Carolina is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Gamecocks will simply be the more motivated team here playing to make the NCAA Tournament, on Senior Night, and with revenge in mind.  Bet South Carolina Thursday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -3

The Providence Friars are extremely undervalued right now.  That's because they lost five of six games while putting themselves dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they rebounded with a 21-point win over DePaul last time out, and now I really love them as only 3-point home favorites over Creighton as this is clearly a shorter price than it should be.

It's Senior Night for the Friars, which will add to their motivation.  And at just 8-8 in Big East play, they really cannot afford another loss here.  Creighton pretty much played itself out of the NCAA Tournament discussion with back-to-back losses to Butler and Marquette prior to beating lowly St. John's last time out.

Providence clearly has Creighton's number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with three of those victories coming away from home.  In their lone home meeting with the Bluejays during this 4-game winning streak, the Friars won 65-53 as 6-point favorites.  They are 12-4 at home this season, while the Bluejays are just 4-6 in true road games.

Providence is 13-2 ATS off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -4.5

The Butler Bulldogs are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs listed as the second-to-last team on the "Last Four In" line.  It's safe to say that they cannot afford a home loss to Seton Hall tonight if they want to remain on the right side of the bubble.

The Bulldogs have played their way into the tournament by winning five of their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the top two teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier.  That includes an 81-75 road win at Seton Hall, and this has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pirates.

Seton Hall has played its way into the NCAA Tournament and now can afford to lose this game.  The Pirates have won four straight coming in, including a huge victory over then-No. 5 Xavier in their final home game of the season last time out on Sunday.  They are in a massive letdown spot off that big win.  They are also playing on just two days' rest, while Butler has had three days in between games to get ready.

The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season.  Butler is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Plays against road teams as an underdog or pick (SETON HALL) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an road win scoring 85 or more points are 88-45 (66.2%) ATS since 1997.  Take Butler Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -3.5

The Ole Miss Rebels still have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament.  At 18-11 overall and 8-8 in SEC play, if they win their final two games of the regular season, they''ll be back in the discussion.  So they certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight, not to mention the fact that it's their big rival in Mississippi State coming to Oxford.

The Rebels want revenge from a 77-83 road loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting this season.  They should have no problem getting it in a big way considering the Rebels are 11-2 at home this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Ole Miss is 4-0 in its last four home meetings with Mississippi State, winning by 6, 19, 18 and 7 points.

The Bulldogs are more overvalued right now than they have been at any other point this season.  That's because they have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and they are coming off an upset win over South Carolina last time out.  But consider that Mississippi State is just 2-8 in true road games this season, and it's clear to see that they should be catching more than 3.5 points tonight.

The Rebels are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Ole Miss is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 Wednesday home games.  The Rebels are 32-16 ATS in their last 48 games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Roll with Ole Miss Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +13

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are making a late push to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  They have won five of their last six games overall coming into this one, and a road victory at Louisville would certainly help matters.  They are simply catching too many points here in a game that I believe will come down to the wire.

Since joining the ACC, Louisville has won both meetings with Georgia Tech by a combined 5 points.  That includes a 75-71 road win on January 23 in their first meeting this season.  But now the Yellow Jackets will be out for revenge, and they certainly have a lot more to play for considering the postseason ban for Louisville.

Senior guard Marcus Georges-Hunt has averaged 23.5 points on 63.6 percent shooting during the Yellow Jackets' four-game winning streak.  "He's going to have to play at the high level he's been playing at," coach Brian Gregory said of Georges-Hunt. "At the same time we need Adam (Smith) to play well, and we need our bigs to play well. Both times we've played Louisville, it's come down to a possession game, and they have playmakers."

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas +3

The Texas Longhorns have been dominant at home all season.  They are 14-2 at home this year, and now we are getting them as home underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight.  We'll take the points in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Texas is 4-1 at home against ranked teams this season with wins over West Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Iowa State.  After beating No. 3 Oklahoma handily 76-63 on Saturday, they are looking to become the first team since Kansas (2008) to beat a pair of top-three opponents in back-to-back games.

Adding to the motivation for the Longhorns is the fact that this is Senior Night and will be their final home game.  Also adding to their hunger is the fact that they blew a 35-30 halftime lead at Kansas to lose 76-67 in their first meeting.  But now they get the Jayhawks at home and will be seeking revenge.

I simply do not expect Kansas to show up.  The Jayhawks clinched at least a share of their ridiculous 12th straight Big 12 regular season title with their 67-58 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday.  After accomplishing that goal, the Jayhawks will fall flat tonight as they play with a sense of relief.  Sure, they could wrap up the outright title with a win, but they can also do that at home against Iowa State in their next game.  This is far from a must-win for the Jayhawks.

Texas is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games after 15 or more games this season.  The Longhorns are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Texas is 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2

It's Senior Day for Wake Forest, so it's safe to say that the Demon Deacons are going to show up in their final home game against Virginia Tech Sunday.  I look for a big effort from them for a number of reasons, not the least of which is Senior Day.

Leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Devin Thomas (15.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg) will be making his return from a 2-game suspension.  The Demon Deacons were playing well before he got suspended, and then they actually played respectable without him for two games, which will help them going forward.

They only lost by 5 at Georgia Tech, by 11 at NC State and by 5 (OT) at Pitt in three straight games before the Thomas suspension.  They them blew out Boston College 74-48 in their first game without him at home before losing to ranked Notre Dame by 11 at home.

Another reason I expect a big effort from the Demon Deacons is the fact that they'll want revenge from a tough 91-93 road loss at Virginia Tech in their first meeting on January 13.  The Hokies are riding high off rare back-to-back wins over Florida State and Boston College, and they are ripe for the picking here.  They clearly won't want this game as much as the Demon Deacons.

VA Tech is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Demon Deacons are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 Sunday games.  The emon Deacons are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Bet Wake Forest Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is just 5-23 on the season like Illinois-Chicago.  That alone has provided some nice line value as the oddsmakers know this fact, but there are several reasons to like the Flames against the 18-12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers today.

The biggest reason is that this is a huge letdown/hangover spot for the Panthers.  They are coming off a devastating 76-80 (OT) home loss to Horizon League champ Valparaiso.  They really put a lot into that game, and there's no way they are going to be able to come back and match the intensity they played with against Valpo.

That's especially the case considering Milwaukee already beat Illinois-Chicago 87-62 at home in an absolute laugher. But that's going to place the Flames in revenge mode here.  And boy have they been a money-printing machine in these spots.  Indeed, Illinois-Chicago is 7-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season.  It is only getting outscored by 6.0 points per game in this spot.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series.  In fact, the road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Illinois-Chicago only lost by 6 as 7.5-point dogs and actually won outright by 22 as 8-point dogs in its last two visits to Milwaukee.  The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  The Flames are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Take Illinois-Chicago Sunday.

15* Xavier/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +2

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have clearly built up a tremendous resume to make the NCAA Tournament with their 20-7 record this season, which includes a 12-3 mark in home games.  They will add another big win Sunday against Xavier at home.

This is an awful spot for Xavier.  The Musketeers are coming off their biggest win of the season, defeating No. 1 Villanova 90-83 at home on Wednesday.  There is no way they are going to be able to show up after such a big win like that, and I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here.

That has happened quite a bit recently at Seton Hall.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Seton Hall won 90-82 as 2-point home dogs to Xavier last season and 71-62 as a pick 'em two seasons ago.  The Pirates will clearly be out for revenge from a 76-84 road loss to Xavier on January 23 in their first meeting this season, too, so they'll be the more motivated, focused team in this one.

The Pirates have really been undervalued all season, especially here of late.  They are 7-1 SU in thier last eight games overall, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests.  They lost by just 1 point at home to Villanova earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.

Seton Hall is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pirates are 10-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Seton Hall is 9-2 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  The Pirates are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  These five trends combine for a 41-4 system backing the Pirates.  Roll with Seton Hall Sunday.

15* Louisville/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3.5

At 11-4 in ACC play, the Miami Hurricanes are just one game back of the North Carolina Tar Heels for 1st place in the conference.  Look for them to continue pursuing at least a share of the league title with a big home win over the Louisville Cardinals today.

Miami is coming off a big home win over Virginia, and it has now won 9 of its last 11 games overall.  The Hurricanes simply do not lose at home as they are 4-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.1 points per game.  They are 8-0 at home in ACC play with six of those wins coming by 9 points or more.

Louisville is still playing out the string despite its NCAA Tournament ban.  But this team is just 4-5 in true road games this season, and I just don't trust them to match the effort of the Hurricanes in this one, who simply want it more right now.  This veteran Hurricanes bunch also wants revenge from two losses to Louisville by a combined 10 points last year.

Matchup wise, Miami has arguably the best trio of guards in the country who will be able to beat Louisville's press for easy scores all game.  That guard play has led to only 11 turnovers per game for the Hurricanes as well, so they aren't going to give up the same easy baskets that Louisville is accustomed to with turnovers.

The Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Hurricanes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Louisville is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  Miami is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game this season.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Roll with Miami Saturday.

15* Arizona/Utah ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 144.5

I rarely take college basketball totals, but this one really stood out to me.  Oddsmakers have set the bar way too high in this Arizona/Utah game today, and we'll take advantage in what will be a low-scoring affair.

Arizona allows 68.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting against opponents that average 74.8 points on 43.9% shooting this season.  Utah gives up 68.8 points and 41.2% shooting against opponents that average 74.5 points and 43.9% shooting, so these are two elite defensive teams.

Stakes are high right now as both teams are within one game of the Pac-12 regular season title, so that will add to the defensive intensity in this one.  But the intensity is always high when these two get together, and it favors the defenses.

Arizona and Utah have combined for 120, 120, 110, 112, 121, 132, 127, 131 and 128 points in their last nine meetings at the end of regulation, respectively.  As you can see, they have not combined for more than 132 points in any of those nine meetings.  They've averaged 122.3 combined points per game in those nine contests, which is roughly 22 points less than today's posted total of 144.5.

Utah is 15-5 to the UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 points over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 8-0 to the UNDER vs. great teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 38-15 in Wildcats last 53 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -5

Off back-to-back losses, the Syracuse Orange find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Now they need to win today or they would likely be on the outside looking in.  It's safe to say that they are going to lay it all on the line to get a victory as a result.

The Orange are 12-4 at home this season, including 5-1 in their last six conference home games.  They now get to take on an NC State team that has won just three true road games all season, posting a 3-6 record in them.

NC State has very little to play for at 14-14 on the season.  It is in a big hangover spot here from a 68-80 home loss to rival North Carolina, and it will have a hard time getting up to face the Orange as a result.

I also like this matchup for the Orange, who force opponents to make 3-pointers to beat them with their zone defense.  Well, the Wolfpack only average 6 made 3-pointers per game on 34.1% shooting.  That makes this a very bad matchup for them.

Syracuse is 9-0 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest over the last 3 seasons.  It last played on February 20, while NC State last played on February 24.  That rest and preparation advantage will also be key to the Orange getting this much-needed win and cover.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville -4

At 12-5 in Missouri Valley play this season, Evansville needs a victory today to lock up the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament as it is tied with Illinois State (12-5).  That motivation, plus the fact that it's Senior Day for this veteran bunch, will have the Purple Aces coming through with a big performance today against Northern Iowa.

Evansville has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  It is 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game in the process.  But it is undervalued right now due to going just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games overall, which is why it's only a 4-point favorite.

Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is way overvalued right now due to going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  But at 10-7 in league play, the Panthers can't improve their standings much.  They beat Evansville by 3 at home in their first meeting this season, which places the Purple Aces in revenge mode.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northern Iowa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games overall.  Take Evansville Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +17

The St. Mary's Gaels are in a massive letdown spot tonight at home against the Santa Clara Broncos.  As a result, the Gaels should not be laying 17 points to the Broncos in this one, and we'll take advantage and back the heavy underdogs here.

St. Mary's is coming off the season sweep of Gonzaga for the first time in forever.  The Gaels beat the Bulldogs 63-58 on the road last time out, and now it's only human nature for them to not bring the same intensity into this game that they did that night against Gonzaga.

Santa Clara has only lost one of its last 11 games by more than 17 points, so it has been very competitive, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  It is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 visits to St. Mary's as well.  The Broncos are 9-4 ATS in all road games this season.

St. Mary's has been overvalued for quite some time now, going just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Gaels haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 17 points, making for an 11-0 system backing the Broncos.  Santa Clara is 6-0 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent this season.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Broncos.  Take Santa Clara Thursday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -1

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have won three of their last four games overall, including upset home wins over Indiana as 9-point dogs and Iowa as 9-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Big Ten.

The one loss during this stretch was a 54-70 defeat at Nebraska on February 13th.  Now, less than two weeks later, the Nittany Lions are going to want some revenge on the Cornhuskers.  I expect them to get it at home this time around.

Penn State is 9-3 at home this season.  Nebraska is 3-6 in true road games this year.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings, including wins by 13 and 4 points for the Nittany Lions in the last two meetings at Penn State.

The Cornhuskers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Nebraska is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 road games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Penn State Thursday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +11

The Air Force Falcons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  Yet, they continue to get overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public as massive 11-point road underdogs to the Fresno State Bulldogs.

The Falcons are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have upset wins as underdogs over Wyoming, Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico.  They also covered as 18-point road underdogs in a 9-point loss at San Diego State, which is the best team in the Mountain West.

Fresno State has a good record at 18-9, but it has been very fortunate in close games.  In fact, the Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points in any of their last 11 games.  That includes a 1-point win as 6-point road favorites at Air Force in their first meeting, which places the Falcons in revenge mode here.

This has been a very closely-contested series as each of the last three meetings have been decided by a combined 5 points with the Bulldogs winning them all, only fueling the fire of the Falcons even more.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Combine these two trends with the fact that Fresno State hasn't won by more than 11 in 11 straight games, and we have a 21-0 system backing the Falcons.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -7.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks should be bigger favorites at home tonight against the Tennessee Volunteers.  This has been a common theme all season as the Gamecocks have consistently been undervalued at home time and time again.

Indeed, South Carolina is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game.  Its only home loss all season came to Kentucky, which is the best team in the SEC.

Tennessee has been great at home but awful on the road.  The Vols are 1-12 in all road games this season with a 1-9 record in true road games an an 0-3 mark in neutral site contests.  They have lost by double-digits in four straight road games with a 10-point loss at Kentucky, an 11-point loss at Missouri, an 18-point loss at Arkansas, and a 12-point loss at TCU.

Making matters more difficult on the Volunteers is the fact that leading scorer Kevin Punter is doubtful with a stress fracture in his foot.  Punter leads the team at 22.2 points per game and would be a huge loss considering how much they rely on him.  Even if he plays, I still expect the Gamecocks to get the job done.

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win.  The Gamecocks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Roll with South Carolina Wednesday.

15* Villanova/Xavier Big East ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +1.5

The Xavier Musketeers mean business tonight.  They're out to prove that they can beat the elite, and they'll do just that by upsetting No. 1 Villanova at home.  Look for their biggest effort of the season here folks.

Xavier was embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in their first meeting this season, when Edmond Sumner fell hard in the early minutes and had to be taken to the hospital.  The Musketeers never recovered.  The Musketeers also blew a 40-33 halftime lead over Villanova last year at home, which doesn't sit well with them.

''Losing Edmond did a lot for us,'' Farr said. ''But you know, we pride ourselves on being a deep team. We got challenged and we didn't answer the challenge at Villanova. It's going to be a different story tomorrow. Tomorrow is a players game - who wants it more? So we'll be ready.''

Xavier is 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points per game.  Xavier is 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less, or as an underdog, over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 8-0 ATS off three straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  These three trends combine for a 30-1 system backing the Musketeers.  Take Xavier Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6

The Ohio State Buckeyes have played themselves back into contention for the NCAA Tournament by playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  A win over Michigan State tonight would be just what the doctor ordered and probably push them into the field of 68.

The Buckeyes currently sit at 18-10 on the season and 10-5 within the conference.  They have won four straight games coming in.  The Buckeyes are 13-4 at home this season, including 6-1 at home in Big Ten play with their only loss coming to Maryland by 5 points.  Three of their four home losses this season have come by 6 points or less.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Plus, these games always seem to come down to the wire as the Spartans and Buckeyes have played nine straight games decided by 9 points or less, including seven by 4 points or fewer.

Ohio State is 7-1 ATS in home games with a total set of 135 to 139.5 points this season.  The Buckeyes are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 Tuesday games.  The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games overall.  Take Ohio State Tuesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Davidson -3.5

The Davidson Wildcats still have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament, but they need a big finish to do so.  A win over Rhode Island tonight would certainly help, and I look for them to get it at home, where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, Davidson is 13-1 at home this season.   It is coming off a win over arguably the best team in the the conference in Saint Joseph's to boost its resume.  It has won four of its last five games overall with its only loss coming by a single point on the road.

Rhode Island has lost four of its last seven games coming in.  Like Davidson, the Rams are tremendous at home, but awful on the road.  Indeed, Rhode Island is just 2-7 in true road games this season.  It is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs here.

Rhode Island is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Rhode Island is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games overall.  The Rams are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win.  The Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 Tuesday games.  Bet Davidson Tuesday.

15* Virginia/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1

The Miami Hurricanes come into this game undervalued as only 1-point home favorites over the Virginia Cavaliers.  Their 71-96 loss at North Carolina over the weekend has a lot to do with it, but keep in mind that they had won eight of their previous nine games prior.

Virginia comes in overvalued due to having won eight of its last nine games overall with its only loss coming on a buzzer-beater at Duke.  While this team is playing very well, it should be catching more than just one point on the road at Miami today.

After all, the Hurricanes are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  All five of Virginia's losses this season have come on the road.  Miami wants revenge from a 58-66 road loss at Virginia int heir first meeting this season as well.

Miami is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Hurricanes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  Take Miami Monday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +1.5

The Texas Longhorns come in undervalued due to losing three of their last four games overall.  Two were understandable as they came on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, but a bad loss at home to Baylor last time out by 14 points is what has them undervalued.

Shaka Smart's team has been very resilient.  After a mediocre start to the season, they proceeded to win seven out of eight games in the middle of their Big 12 schedule.  Now, after losing three of four, I look for that resiliency to come through here today with a big road win over Kansas State.

Kansas State is just 15-12 on the season and 4-10 in conference games.  While the Wildcats have been good at home, I expect them to suffer a hangover from their 63-72 home loss to rival Kansas over the weekend.  They won't possibly be as motivated for this game as they were against the Jayhawks.

Texas is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1.5

This one is about as easy as it gets today folks.  It's as simple as the fact that the USC Trojans are 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17 points per game.  They are also 11-3-1 ATS at home this season.  They essentially just have to win the game to cover this 1.5-point spread, too.

The Utah Utes are way overvalued right now due to winning three straight, including a 2-point win at UCLA last time out.  But they're not about to escape USC with a victory.  After all, the Trojans have beaten Arizona among others at home this season.

The Trojans are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  The Trojans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  USC is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Utes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet USC Sunday.

15* St. Mary's/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now and really need this win over St. Mary's to get in the field with an at-large berth.  I look for them to take care of business in a big way at home tonight.

For starters, Gonzaga is going to be out for revenge after blowing a big late lead and losing 67-70 at St. Mary's in their first meeting this season on January 21st.  The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.4 points per game, so revenge shouldn't be a problem.

St. Mary's is not playing well at all coming into this game.  The Gaels are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall, having lost by 11 at BYU and by 6 at home to Pepperdine recently.  Their last two wins have come over lowly Loyola-Marymount and Portland by a combined 8 points despite being a combined 27-point favorite in those two contests.

Gonzaga is 18-1 SU in its last 19 home meetings with St. Mary's, and 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Gaels overall.  The one-sided nature of this series should continue as the Bulldogs have their revenge in a big way at home tonight.  Take Gonzaga Saturday.

20* American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats and UConn Huskies are both squarely on the bubble right now.  But I'll side with the home team in this one as the Bearcats should take care of business at this generous price of -2.5 today.

Cincinnati comes in hungry and undervalued off a 68-70 loss at Tulsa, while UConn is in a big letdown spot off its huge 68-62 home win over SMU that also has it overvalued.  This line should be Cincinnati -6 or higher.

After all, the Bearcats already won 58-57 at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Cincinnati rarely loses at home as it is 12-3 and outscoring opponents by 18.6 points per game at home.

UConn is 24-44 ATS in its last 68 road games off two consecutive home games.  UConn is 5-16 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Take Cincinnati Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -5.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They keep winning, yet they continue lacking respect from oddsmakers here as only 5.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday.

Alabama has won five straight games to get to 16-9 and likely into the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today.  It has home wins over Tennessee, Missouri and Texas A&M, as well as road wins as underdogs at Mississippi State, Florida and LSU over its last seven games with its only loss coming at South Carolina.

But the Crimson Tide can't afford a letdown today against Mississippi State if they want to remain in the NCAA Tournament field.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the Bulldogs are 1-7 in true road games this season, while the Crimson Tide are 9-2 in home games.

The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.  Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Alabama.  The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Mississippi State is 2-9 ATS revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  Alabama is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS versus good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Air Force +8

Given how well Air Force has played at home all season, especially here of late, there's no way it should be catching 8 points to New Mexico today.  We'll gladly take advantage of this excellent line value.

Air Force is 11-4 at home this season.  It has pulled off three straight upset victories at home, beating Wyoming by 8 as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State by 8 as 11.5-point dogs, and UNLV by 5 as 8.5-point dogs.  Plus, two of its four home losses this season came by a combined 5 points.

New Mexico is a tremendous home team, but it leaves a lot to be desired with a 4-8 record in all games played away from home this year.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has clearly been huge as well.

The Lobos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Falcons will also be out for revenge from a loss at New Mexico on January 27th in their first meeting this season.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

20* Florida/South Carolina SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina -2.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Missouri.  Look for them to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Florida Gators.

After all, that loss to Kentucky was the first home loss for the Gamecocks all season.  They are still 13-1 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits, including recent wins over LSU (94-83), Alabama (78-64) and Mississippi State (84-74).

Florida is just 3-6 in true road games this season.  But it comes in overvalued off a road win at Georgia last time out by a final of 57-53.  The Gators have won seven straight meetings with the Gamecocks, but this is a completely different South Carolina team in 2015-16.  The Gamecocks are 21-5 on the season as this is the best team that Frank Martin has had yet.

Florida is 1-8 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gators are 0-9 ATS off a combined score of 115 points or less over the last two years.  South Carolina is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Gators are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up win.  The Gamecocks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Gamecocks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* Cal/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +2

The Washington Huskies are on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They have to finish strong if they want any chance, and it starts with an upset home victory over the California Bears tonight.

Washington is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch in which they lost to Arizona (by 5) at home, Utah (by 8) on the road and Colorado (by 1) on the road.  But now they return home where they are 10-4 on the season, including 4-2 in Pac-12 play with their only losses coming to Arizona (by 5) and Utah (by 5).

California comes in way overvalued due to three straight victories over Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State, all of which came at home.  But the Golden Bears have been awful on the road this season.  They are 1-8 in all road games, including 0-6 in their last six true road games.  The last four have all come by 6 points or more.

The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Cal is 0-6 ATS off three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Golden Bears are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Huskies.  Take Washington Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA +1

The UCLA Bruins need to start piling up wins if they want to go back to the NCAA Tournament, where they made a deep run all the way to the Elite 8 last year.  They have an excellent chance of doing just that with four of their final six games at home.

The Bruins took care of Arizona State 78-65 on the road as 2-point dogs last time out.  Now they get to host the Utah Utes.  The Bruins are 9-3 at home this season with wins over the likes of Kentucky and Arizona.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three home meetings with Utah as Pac-12 foes, including a 69-59 victory as 5.5-point dogs last year.

Utah has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers here.  While the Utes are a tremendous home team, they have left a lot to be desired on the road.  Indeed, the Utes are just 3-4 in true road games this season with their only wins coming over Colorado (by 2), Washington State and Washington (by 5).  They have lost to Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Oregon State on the road.

Utah is 1-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of its last three coming in over the last two seasons.  The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following three or more consecutive road games.  The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -6.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game with the Duke Blue Devils as the more motivated team.  They have lost three straight in this rivalry, so they badly want to taste sweet, sweet victory.  They finally have the better team than Duke this year, and I look for them to roll to victory at home tonight.

After all, Duke won the National Championship last season so it's easy to see why it went 2-0 against North Carolina, though the two wins came by a combined 9 points.  But this Duke team is one of the worst we've seen in quite some time.  In fact, the Blue Devils were knocked out of the Top 25 for the first time since 2006 a few weeks ago.

That came on the heels of losing four out of five games.  But the Blue Devils are now back to being overvalued due to winning four straight coming in.  But those wins have been far from convincing as all four came by 9 points or less, and three were at home.  They needed a buzzer-beater to top Virginia at home on Saturday.

Now the Blue Devils will be tasked with facing one of the best UNC teams in recent memory.  The Tar Heels are 21-4 this season and 10-2 in ACC play.  They have absolutely suffocated opponents at home, going 13-0 in Chapel Hill while outscoring opponents by 20.3 points per game in the process.  They have won all 13 of their home games by 8 points or more this season, making for a 13-0 system backing them.  That includes a 21-point victory over Pitt in their last outing.

From a strict basketball standpoint, I believe the reason the Tar Heels are going to run away with this game will be their advantage on the glass.  North Carolina ranks 2nd in the ACC in rebounding margin at plus-7.4 boards per game.  Rebounding has been a weakness for Duke ever since losing Amile Jefferson to injury.  The Blue Devils are only have a plus-2.9 margin on the season, and they are -0.6 in conference play.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Syracuse +8

I'm in strict fade Louisville mode right now, and it's working.  The Cardinals are lost mentally right now because of the recent sanctions that were handed down to them.  They cannot play in the postseason this year, and I believe that has affected the players' approach to the game.

The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses to Duke and Notre Dame.  I don't believe they'll be able to get back on track tonight against one of the hottest teams in the ACC in Syracuse.  Even if they do get back in the win column, I find it hard to believe it will come by 8-plus points, which is what it will take to cover this spread.

Syracuse has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming at Virginia by 8 points.  It has gone 3-1 on the road during this stretch with a 28-point win at Wake Forest, a 2-point win at Duke and a 14-point win at Boston College.  It is also 5-0 at home, highlighted by a 13-point win over Florida State and a 15-point win over Notre Dame.

Syracuse beat Louisville 69-59 at home last season as 2.5-point underdogs.  It has actually won its last two trips to Louisville as well, winning outright as 7-point dogs and 3-point dogs.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Orange are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off four or more consecutive wins. The Cardinals are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.

25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence +9

The Providence Friars represent my favorite play in the Big East for the entire 2015-16 season tonight when they hit the road to take on the Xavier Musketeers.  The Friars catching 9 points is simply too much tonight in a game that they could easily win outright.

Providence comes in undervalued due to being 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  That is evidenced by this 8-point spread tonight.  This will be just the 4th time all season that the Friars have been at least 7.5-point underdogs.  They won outright at Villanova as 12-point dogs and outright at Butler as 7.5-point dogs in two of the three previous instances.

One thing I love about this spot for the Friars is that they will be in revenge mode from a 68-75 home loss to Xavier on January 26.  But that loss was predictable because they were in a massive letdown spot off their upset win at Villanova two days earlier.  But after losing three of their last four coming in, the Friars are focused and will be chomping at the bit to get revenge behind Kris Dunn and company.

Xavier has been far from impressive at home here of late.  The Musketeers are actually 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They lost 72-81 as 9.5-point favorites to Georgetown, beat Seton Hall by 8 as 9-point favorites, beat St. John's by only 7 as 21.5-point favorites, and beat Marquette by 8 as 12.5-point favorites.  Providence will be the best team that they have played at home in quite some time.

Another thing to love about Providence is that this have been a very closely-contested series of late.  Indeed, all five meetings between these teams have been decided by 9 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Providence is 11-1 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, actually winning in these spots by 10.2 points per game.  Xavier is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Bet Providence Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's -1.5

First place is on the line when the Dayton Flyers visit the St. Joe's Hawks tonight in Atlantic 10 action.  The Flyers are in 1st place currently at 11-1 within the conference, while the Hawks are just behind them at 10-2.  I'll gladly side with the home team in this one as the Hawks continue to be undervalued as only 1.5-point favorites here.

St. Joe's has gone 21-4 SU & 17-7 ATS in all games this season.  The oddsmakers and betting public simply have not caught up to this team as they have been a covering machine.  They have won and covered three straight in blowout fashion coming in with a 22-point win at Fordham as 7.5-point favorites, an 18-point win at George Washington as 4.5-point dogs, and a 26-point home win over LaSalle as 17.5-point favorites.

Dayton comes in overvalued due to its No. 15 national ranking and nine straight victories.  But the Flyers have been extremely fortunate of late.  In their last two games, they only won by 2 at home over Duquesne as 14.5-point favorites, and by 2 at Rhode Island as 2.5-point favorites.  Their luck runs out tonight against a St. Joe's outfit that is the best in the Atlantic 10 in my opinion.

Plus, St. Joe's is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dayton.  How important is home-court advantage in this series you ask?  Well, how about the fact that the home team is 14-1 SU in the last 15 meetings.  St. Joe's has won 7 straight home meetings with Dayton dating back to 2001.  Take St. Joe's Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -2

The Davidson Wildcats are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Richmond Spiders tonight.  The Wildcats already beat the Spiders 78-70 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season, and they should be bigger favorites at home in the rematch.
 
I like the fact that Davidson is coming off a tough 1-point loss at George Mason, which will have it refocused when it returns home tonight.  After all, the Wildcats do not lose at home as they are 11-1 on the season in their own building with their only loss coming to VCU.

Richmond comes in overvalued due to winning three straight games, but those three came against three of the worst teams in the A-10 in UMass, Saint Louis and Fordham.  They also lost at home to George Mason by 4 in the game prior to this winning streak.

Davidson is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Richmond, including 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at home with wins by 14 and 13 points.  The Spiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Richmond is 0-6 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game over the last two seasons.  Take Davidson Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State PK

The Ohio State Buckeyes get the call tonight as a pick 'em at home against the Michigan Wolverines.  I believe this is a very generous price for the Buckeyes, who really need a win like this and a few more if they want any chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

With an 8-5 record in Big Ten play, the Buckeyes have clearly gotten better as the season has gone on.  They have gone 5-1 at home within the conference with their only loss coming to Maryland by 5 points.  Michigan has only played seven true road games all season, going 4-3 with double-digit losses at SMU (by 24), Iowa (by 11) and Purdue (by 17).  Its only road wins have come at NC State, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  In fact, Ohio State is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Michigan since 2005, including a 71-52 win last year in their most recent meeting.  Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5

The Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face the West Virginia Mountaineers.  They have lost back-to-back tough games on the road to both Oklahoma and Iowa State, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12.

But the Longhorns continue to be undervalued here as only 2.5-point home favorites.  They have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are better than the oddsmakers and the betting public realize.  They prove it again tonight with an inspired effort on their home floor.

Texas has protected its home court very well, going 12-1 on the season with wins over the likes of North Carolina, Iowa State and Vanderbilt.  West Virginia has lost two of its last three road games with a 17-point loss at Florida and a 10-point loss at Kansas.

The Longhorns have had the Mountaineers' number, going 5-1 SU in their last five meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings, including a 56-49 road win as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  West Virginia is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games revenging a loss as a favorite.  Texas is 9-1 ATS against teams who win more than 80% of their games on the season after 15 or more games over the last three seasons.  Bet Texas Tuesday.

20* NC State/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on NC State +12

The NC State Wolfpack are a much better team than their 13-12 record would indicate this season.  They are fully capable of hanging with Virginia, possibly pulling off the upset on the road tonight.  That's easy to see when you look at their results in ACC play this season.

Sure, NC State is just 3-9 in ACC play, but 7-4 ATS as it has simply had bad fortune in close games.  Indeed, all nine losses have come by 12 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer.  The Wolfpack also have wins over the likes of Pitt (by 17) on the road and Miami (by 16) at home to show what they are capable of.  They haven't lost any of their last 24 games this season by more than 12 points, making for a perfect 24-0 system backing them.

Virginia is in a horrible spot here.  It is coming off a deflating 62-63 loss at Duke on Saturday.  The Blue Devils shouldn't have won that game as Grayson Allen traveled on the final play, but he made a shot at the buzzer that the refs counted, giving Duke the victory.  I expect Virginia to suffer a hangover after getting cheated out of a win as it will be hard to come back after that game at historic Cameron Indoor Stadium.

NC State is 10-1 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons.  NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents.  The Cavaliers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.  The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet NC State Monday.

20* Indiana/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -7

The Michigan State Spartans are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  But since they are coming off an overtime loss at Purdue by 1, they will be highly motivated to get back in the win column today.

The Spartans' four wins during this stretch came by 9 at home over Maryland, by 31 at Northwestern, by 34 at home over Rutgers, and by 16 at Michigan.  They have also had four days off in between games since playing Purdue, while Indiana has only had two days off.  That extra rest and preparation will favor the Spartans here.

Indiana is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  It had taken advantage of a very soft Big Ten schedule to this point with most of its tough games at home.  It has played Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State on the road.  It has actually lost two of its last three road games to Wisconsin and Penn State.

Michigan State is 14-1 SU & 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Indiana.  The Hoosiers are just 3-8 ATS in all road games this season.  The Spartans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hoosiers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win.  Michigan State is 11-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Bet Michigan State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +10.5

The Baylor Bears are way overvalued here as double-digit home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  I look for this game to go right down to the wire, which has been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent seasons.

Indeed, each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less, including 3, 3 and 5 points in the last three meetings.  That includes a 63-60 road victory for the Bears in their first meeting this season on January 16th, which puts the Red Raiders in dangerous revenge mode in the rematch here today.

Texas Tech is the definition of a team that is better than its record would indicate.  The Red Raiders are a solid 14-9 this season, but it really could be much better.  Seven of their nine losses have come by 10 points or less, so if they had a +10.5 spread for every game this season, they would be 21-2 ATS.  This is simply too many points folks.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Maryland Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +9.5

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game against highly-ranked Maryland playing their best basketball of the season.  I expect that to continue for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that they want revenge from a tough loss to the Terrapins at home in their first meeting this year.

Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has beaten the likes of Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State and Nebraska at home, while also taking care of both Penn State and Illinois on the road during this stretch.  The Badgers are 7-4 in Big Ten play overall with all four losses coming by 6 points or less (6, 1, 3, 5).

The Badgers lost a 60-63 heartbreaker at home to Maryland in a game they feel they should have won.  But Melo Trimble hit the game-winning 3-pointer with only 1.2 seconds left, and the Badgers have not forgotten.  Maryland shot 52.1% in that game compared to 38.7% for Wisconsin, yet it only managed to win by 3.

"I think our guys are excited about this game for a lot of reasons, and it's not only because they're ranked (No. 2) in the country or because of the potential postseason ramifications," assistant coach Lamont Paris told the school's official website. "It's because they felt like they left something hanging out there in the first game. We made some mistakes and didn't finish around the rim."

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS following a conference win this season.  Maryland is 0-6 ATS in home games after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better over the last two seasons.  The Terrapins are 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Badgers.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Virginia/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -2

Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Duke Blue Devils as this short of home favorites year in and year out.  I know that the Blue Devils aren't as strong as they were when they won the NCAA title last season, but I'm not about to pass up on this golden opportunity.

Duke still has one of the Top 5 best home-court advantages in the country.  It has gone 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.  Its two losses at home this season have come by a combined 6 points, and it is coming off back-to-back home wins over NC State and Louisville.

Virginia comes in way overvalued due to winning seven straight games overall.  But don't forget, this is the same team that started 0-3 on the road in ACC play with losses to the likes of VA Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State.  The Cavaliers also got a miracle 72-71 win at Wake Forest in a game they should have lost as they trailed big late before hitting a banked-in, buzzer-beater.

Duke is 7-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two years.  Virginia hasn't won at Cameron Indoor Stadium in more than 20 years.  The Cavaliers are 0-16 SU in their last 16 trips to Duke with their last win coming in 1995.  Take Duke Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -1

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are really playing as well as anyone in the ACC right now.  They are coming off back-to-back huge wins with an 80-76 home victory over UNC and an 89-83 road win at Clemson, winning outright as underdogs in both contests.

Now the Fighting Irish return home to face Louisville.  We are getting them at a great price here as only 1-point favorites considering the Fighting Irish are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.

Louisville cannot really be trusted right now because it was recently handed down sanctions for this season.  The Cardinals have a quality team this year, but they have to be disheartened knowing that they won't be playing in the postseason either way.  It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are just 3-4 in true road games this season.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Notre Dame is 60-37 ATS in its last 97 games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games overall.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Kansas/Oklahoma ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4

Simply put, the Oklahoma Sooners are the best team in the Big 12, and they'll come out and prove it at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks.  The Jayhawks have won 11 straight regular season Big 12 titles, but that streak comes to an end this year, and this game will have a lot to do with it.

The Sooners want revenge from a 106-109 triple-overtime loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season on January 4th.  They should have no problem getting that revenge at home this time around.  After all, the Sooners are 12-0 at home this season and outscoring the opposition by 18.7 points per game in the process.

Kansas is actually just 1-3 in its last four Big 12 road games with its only win coming at TCU.  The Jayhawks lost by 11 at West Virginia, by 19 at Oklahoma State, and by 13 at Iowa State, so they weren't even close to winning any of those three games, either.

Kansas is 3-12 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Sooners will make a big-time statement today behind Buddy Hield and company.  Hield had 46 points in the first meeting and will be locked in from start to finish.  Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -3

Fade Arkansas on the road, and back the Razorbacks at home.  That's as simple as it gets, but it's true.  The Razorbacks are 1-7 in true road games this season, including an ugly 46-78 loss at Mississippi State last time out.

Ole Miss comes into this game playing very well.  It won at Missouri 76-73, beat a good Vanderbilt team 85-78 at home, and only lost by 5 at Florida as 8.5-point dogs last time out in its last three games.  In fact, the Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Backing Ole Miss at home has been a solid move this season as well.  The Rebels are 9-2 SU at home this season with their only two losses coming to Florida and South Carolina.  Get this, Ole Miss is 14-3 SU & 14-2-1 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Arkansas, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series.

The Razorbacks are 30-62 ATS in their last 92 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Rebels are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.  The Razorbacks are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 meetings with the Rebels overall.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -1

The Oklahoma State Cowboys were in a big letdown spot in their first meeting with Kansas State this season.  They were coming off a huge win over Kansas, and they promptly laid and egg at Kansas State in their next game by a final of 73-89.

But now the Cowboys will be locked in as they are coming off three consecutive defeats, all by 7 points or less.  They want to get back in the win column, and they certainly want revenge from that earlier defeat, so they will be the more motivated team here.

Of course, the key is that home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, Oklahoma State is 10-1 in its last 11 home meetings with Kansas State.  The last two meetings in Stillwater resulted in Cowboys' blowouts by 14 and 16 points.  The home team is also 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings and 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Kansas State is 1-6 SU in true road games this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* UCLA/Arizona ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UCLA +11.5

Three losses in four games have put the UCLA Bruins back on the NCAA Tournament bubble.  Now they have a lot of work to do again this season after barely making it as a 13-loss team last year, and then surprisingly making a deep run.

The Bruins have big wins over Kentucky, Gonzaga and Arizona this season, and now they have a chance to add another while going for the season sweep of the Wildcats.  UCLA has had a lot of time to correct its mistakes after last playing on February 4th in a bad loss at USC.

UCLA has given Arizona all it could handle over the past couple seasons.  It won the first meeting 87-84 at home this season, which was one of many close games in this series of late.  In fact, each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, which is less than this 11.5-point margin.

Better yet, UCLA hasn't lost to Arizona by more than 11 points in any of the last 15 meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bruins pertaining to tonight's 11.5-point spread.  I fully expect a big effort from the Bruins here, who simply need this win more.  Bet UCLA Friday.

15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a tough 3-game road trip in which they lost at Colorado, Utah and California.  But now they get to return home and will get back in the win column tonight against Oregon State.

The Cardinal are 9-4 at home this season, including 3-2 in conference play with wins over the likes of Utah, California and Arizona State.  Their only losses came to Colorado (by 1) and Arizona.

Oregon State is 0-4 in conference road games this season.  It has blowout losses to Colorado (by 17), Arizona State (by 18) and Arizona (by 17), as well as a loss at Utah (by 6).  The Beavers have already lost at home to Stanford 72-78 in their first meeting this season, too.

Stanford is a sensational 16-1 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Oregon State.  That includes a 75-48 blowout win in its last home meeting last season.  The Beavers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Oregon State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 road games overall.  The Beavers are 0-8 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons.  Take Stanford Thursday.

20* Iowa/Indiana ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana -1.5

First place in the Big Ten is on the line when the Iowa Hawkeyes visit the Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night.  I'll gladly side with the home team in this matchup considering they basically just have to win the game to cover the 1.5-point spread.

The Hoosiers are coming off a bad loss at Penn State and will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight in front of a raucous home crowd.  After all, the Hoosiers do not lose at home, going 13-0 while outscoring the opposition by a whopping 27.4 points per game on the season.

Iowa has been vulnerable on the road this season.  It is just 7-4 in all games played away from home.  The Hawekeyes are overvalued due to a soft recent schedule against Northwestern, Penn State and Illinois in their last three games.  Now they take a big step up in competition, similar to when they lost 68-74 at Maryland on January 28.

Indiana is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Indiana is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +3.5

The Colorado State Rams are showing solid value as home underdogs to the Boise State Broncos tonight.  This is a team that has really impressed me in its last two games, losing at San Diego State 67-69 as 11.5-point dogs, and beating Nevada 76-67 at home as 2.5-point favorites.

Boise State is on a downward spiral and has no business being favored in this game tonight.  The Broncos are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their only win coming at home by 3 as 11-point favorites over Utah State.  They lost by 10 at UNLV and by 8 at Air Force despite being 11.5-point favorites, and lost by 5 at home to New Mexico as 8-point favorites.

Colorado State wants revenge from an 80-84 road loss at Boise State as 11-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 2nd.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.

Boise State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS loss.  Take Colorado State Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -3

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They are 20-3 SU & 14-5 ATS this year, and now they are undervalued once again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over the LSU Tigers.

Considering South Carolina is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game, it's easy to see why there is a lot of value on the Gamecocks here tonight.

LSU is just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in all road games this season, true and neutral.  The Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine true road games.  LSU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

South Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Gamecocks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games.  South Carolina is 9-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  The Gamecocks are 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt at least 25 free throws per game over the last two seasons.  Bet South Carolina Wednesday.

15* WVU/Kansas ESPN 2 Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas -6.5

The Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the West Virginia Mountaineers.  That's because this is a revenge game for the Jayhawks, who suffered one of their four losses this season at West Virginia on January 12.

The Mountaineers actually own a one-game lead over the Jayhawks within the conference by virtue of that earlier victory, threatening Kansas' 11-year reign as Big 12 champs.  Believe me, this Kansas team does not want to be the one responsible for that streak coming to an end this season.

Kansas is 38-0 in its last 38 games at Allen Fieldhouse, including 28-0 in its last 28 Big 12 games.  The Jayhawks clearly have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as only 6.5-point home favorites like they are tonight.  We'll take advantage.

West Virginia is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 road games off two straight conference wins.  Kansas is 9-2 ATS following a cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two years.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Kansas Tuesday.

15* Notre Dame/Clemson ESPNU Monday No-Brainer on Clemson -2

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the ACC this season.  They have gone 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in ACC play this season and are a legitimate NCAA Tournament team.  But they need to keep piling up the quality wins, and they have another chance to get one tonight.

Clemson has a huge home-court advantage this season as it is 11-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in lined games at home this year.  In fact, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 at home in ACC play with wins over the likes of Florida State, Louisville, Duke, Miami and Pitt.  So they've taken on the ACC's best and beat them all at home.  After a 3-game road trip, the Tigers will be looking forward to getting back home tonight.

Notre Dame is coming off a huge come-from-behind home win over then-No. 2 North Carolina 80-76 on Saturday.  It is now ripe for a letdown tonight off such a big win, and this is also a lookahead spot as the Fighting Irish have a home game against Louisville on deck.  The Irish have lost their last two road games by 15 at Syracuse and by 9 at Miami and are just 4-6 in all game away from home this year.

The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus game over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Tigers.  Roll with Clemson Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Illinois +10

The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting to the point of being overvalued now.  They lead the Big Ten with a 9-1 record and have gone 7-3 against the spread in conference play.  Now oddsmakers are asking them to lay double-digits on the road to Illinois today, which is too much.

Conversely, Illinois is undervalued right now due to its 3-7 Big Ten record that has included a 4-6 ATS mark.  But the Fighting Illini have been much more competitive here of late.  They have road wins over Minnesota and Rutgers, as well as close home losses to Ohio State (by 5) and Wisconsin (by 8) in their last four games.  They should have no problem staying within double-digits of Iowa here today.

This has been a very closely-contested series to say the least.  Each of the last five meetings between Iowa and Illinois have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, Illinois hasn't lost by more than 8 to Iowa in any of their last 15 meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  The Illini are also 12-2 SU in their last 14 home meetings with the Hawks.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are the definition of a team that is better than its record.  At just 13-9 on the season, they certainly have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament, but they have been doing a great job of that of late.

Indeed, the Commodores are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road at Kentucky and Texas, which are two NCAA Tournament teams.  They throttled No. 8 Texas A&M 77-60 at home last time out on Thursday, and I look for them to build off that huge win.

Ole Miss is no more than a middle-of-the-pack team in the SEC that Vanderbilt should throttle as well given its massive talent edge.  The Rebels are really struggling, going 2-5 in their last seven games overall with their only two wins coming against arguably the two worst teams in the SEC in Missouri and Auburn.

Vanderbilt won 86-77 at Ole Miss as 5-point dogs in their lone meeting last season, and a repeat performance can be expected.  Ole Miss is without second-leading score and leading rebounder Sebastian Saiz (12.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg), which has been a big reason for its struggles of late. 

The Rebels are a one-man wrecking crew now as they rely too heavily on Stefan Moody (23.5 ppg), who is the only healthy player right now averaging double-digits.  I'll gladly back the squad that plays team basketball in Vanderbilt.

Ole Miss is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games on the season.  Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Ole Miss is 2-12 ATS in home games following a win over the last two seasons.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Ole Miss.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona -3

The Arizona Wildcats should be much heavier road favorites today over the Washington Huskies.  But they're now, and we'll take advantage of this gift from oddsmakers as the Wildcats are only laying 3 points to the Huskies.

Following consecutive tough losses to Cal and Oregon, the Wildcats are back on track in a big way with a 17-point home win over Oregon State and a 15-point road win at Washington State coming in.

Washington has narrow home wins over UCLA (by 3), USC (by 2) and Arizona State (OT) this season.  But Arizona is a different animal and arguably the best team in the Pac-12, right alongside Oregon.

Washington hasn't fared well at all against Arizona.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Huskies, winning by 32, 24, 9, 18 and 4 points in the last five meetings, respectively.  That 32-point win came on January 14 in their 1st meeting this season.  The Wildcats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 conference games.  Washington is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 85-plus points in three straight games coming in.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State -2.5

The Colorado State Rams are showing solid value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Nevada Wolf Pack Saturday.  Look for them to cruise to victory and easily cover this small number.

Colorado State is hungry for a victory after back-to-back tough road losses at Wyoming (by 7) and at San Diego State (by 2).  That 2-point loss as 11.5-point dogs to SDSU, which is the best team in the Mountain West, shows what the Rams are capable of.

Meanwhile, Nevada comes in overvalued due to having gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  But the Wolf Pack now face a team they haven't had any success against.  Indeed, Colorado State is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings.  The Rams swept the season series last year with a massive 56-point home win and a 16-point road win.

The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Wolf Pack are 2-8 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season.  Nevada is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game.  Take Colorado State Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -7

The Kentucky Wildcats have lost two straight tough road games in a row coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday against Tennessee.  They lost to Kansas in overtime and to Tennessee after blowing a late lead with a poor finish.

Now the Wildcats return home where they are 12-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by 17.4 points per game in the process.  The Florida Gators are just 2-5 in true road games this season and are getting too much respect here from oddsmakers.

Kentucky simply owns Florida, too.  It won all three meetings with the Gators last season. It won by 15 in the SEC Tournament, by 17 at home, and by 7 on the road.  That domination should continue in their first meeting this season with the Wildcats easily covering this 7-point spread at home.

The Gators are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Kentucky is 10-1 ATS in Saturday home games over the last two seasons. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -3.5

The Michigan State Spartans are back on track in a big way.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Maryland by 9 as 4-point home favorites, Northwestern by 31 as 6-point road favorites, and Rutgers by 34 as 28-point home favorites.

Now the Spartans get to face a Michigan team that is overvalued due to going 4-1 in its last five games overall.  But the four wins came against Big Ten bottom feeders in Minnesota (by 5), Nebraska (by 13), Rutgers (by 11) and Penn State (by 7).  The Wolverines were throttled by the only good team they faced during this stretch in a 13-point home loss to Indiana.

Michigan State has owned Michigan in recent meetings.  The Spartans are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Wolverines.  They won 80-67 on the road, 76-66 at home, and 69-55 on a neutral court in the last three meetings as all three have come by double-digits.

Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good teams who win 60% to 80% of their games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Michigan is 3-13 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 14-4 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last three seasons.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +21

The Louisville Cardinals are in an awful spot today.  They just learned of the news that they have a self-imposed postseason ban, so they will not be going to the NCAA Tournament.  This is a deflated team right now because of that realization.

This is also a bad spot for the Cardinals because it's a sandwich game.  They just beat No. 2 North Carolina at home on Monday, making it a letdown spot.  It's also a lookahead spot because Louisville will play at Duke on Monday.  The Cardinals won't be giving Boston College the attention it deserves today, which will make it extremely difficult to cover this 21-point spread.

Because the Eagles are 0-9 in ACC play, they are clearly undervalued right now.  But this team has been a lot more competitive of late.  They showed what they were capable of in a 14-point loss at Virginia as 23.5-point underdogs last time out.  They should also have no problem staying within this 21-point spread against Louisville today.

Boston College is 90-64 ATS in its last 154 games as a road underdog or pick 'em.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (LOUISVILLE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 4 straight losses by 10 points or more are 27-11 (71.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette +12.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles are showing excellent value as double-digits road underdogs to the Xavier Musketeers today.  I'll gladly take advantage and back the Eagles in a game that I believe will go right down to the wire.

The Golden Eagles are in major revenge mode after losing 66-74 at home to Xavier in their first meeting this season on January 16.  Last year, the they only lost 58-62 as 9.5-point road dogs at Xavier, and I look for this one to go down to the wire as well.

The Musketeers proved to be extremely vulnerable in a 90-83 home win over Big East bottom feeder St. John's despite being 21.5-point favorites.  Now they have two huge road games at Creighton and Butler coming up next, and that makes this a lookahead spot for them as well, especially after already beating Marquette once this season.

Marquette is 51-31 ATS in its last 82 road games vs. a top-level team that wins more than 80% of its games on the season.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Marquette is 47-26 ATS in its last 73 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  The Golden Eagles are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +19

The South Florida Bulls have been way undervalued since American Athletic play started.  They continue to be undervalued here catching 19 points on the road to the Cincinnati Bearcats tonight.

The Bulls have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes back-to-back road wins outright as underdogs at Houston (by 9) as 16-point dogs and at Tulane (by 13) as 7-point dogs.  It's clear to me that this team is much better than their 5-18 record would indicate.

The Cincinnati Bearcats come in overvalued off their 58-57 win at UConn last time out.  They are certain to have a letdown here following that big win because they already beat South Florida 54-51 on the road as massive 15.5-point favorites.

South Florida is now 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati with all five games decided by 8 points or less.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Cincinnati.  These four trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Bulls.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

15* Texas A&M/Vanderbilt ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Vanderbilt -2

The Vanderbilt Commodores really need a strong finish if they want to go to the NCAA Tournament.  They are just 12-9 on the season and better than their record would indicate.  They have the talent to make the tournament, but now they need to start stringing wins today.

A victory over highly-ranked Texas A&M would certainly help their cause tonight.  I think they'll get the job done because they are playing at home, where they are 9-2 on the season and outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game.

Texas A&M is in a bit of a letdown spot here off its huge home win over Iowa State on Saturday.  The Aggies have been vulnerable on the road in conference play.  They lost at Arkansas, only won by 4 at Tennessee, and by 1 at Mississippi State in three of their four conference road games this season.

The Aggies are 0-6 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS A&M) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 40-17 (70.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Commodores are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games following a ATS loss.  Take Vanderbilt Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa PK

The Northern Iowa Panthers are a much better team than their 12-11 record would indicate this season.  They have beaten then-No. 1 North Carolina and then-No. 4 Iowa State this season to prove what they are capable of.

I believe we are getting the Panthers at a great value here tonight as a pick 'em at home against the Evansville Purple Aces.  The Panthers are 7-3 at home this season.  The home team has won three straight meetings, and the Panthers have won three of their last four meetings with the Purple Aces.

Evansville is certainly a quality team this season at 18-5 on the year.  However, the Purple Aces are in a very tough spot here.  They are coming off a 65-78 home loss to the Wichita State Shockers.  After playing the best team in the Missouri Valley last time out, look for the Purple Aces to suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Shockers.

Evansville is 11-37 ATS in its last 48 games following a game with nine or fewer assists.  The Panthers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Northern Iowa is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

15* Colorado State/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State +11.5

It's time to fade the San Diego State Aztecs, who are overvalued right now due to their 9-game winning streak coming in.  They are unbeaten in conference play, and with that perfect record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to.

I'll gladly back the Colorado State Rams catching 11.5 points tonight in this Mountain West showdown.  This is a team that just refuses to get blown out as they've been competitive in every game.  The Rams are 12-9 on the season with all nine of their losses coming by 11 points or less, making for a 23-0 system backing them when you factor in this 11.5-point spread.

One of those losses was a 62-69 home loss to the Aztecs back on January 13.  So, the Rams will also be the more motivated team as they'll be out for revenge in the rematch.  This has been a closely-contested series as it is.  Nine of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and I believe this one will be, too.

San Diego State is 0-7 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Aztecs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games following an ATS win.  San Diego State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six home games overall.  Take Colorado State Tuesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -3

I have backed the Northern Illinois Huskies with a ton of success at home this season.  I'll continue to back them tonight as they are only 3-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bulls.  The Huskies come in motivated for a win off back-to-back road losses.

I like their chances of getting back in the win column considering they are 13-0 at home this season.  They are not only winning, they are dominating at home, outscoring the opposition by an average of 19.0 points per game at home this season.

Buffalo is just 3-7 in true road games this season.  The Bulls come in overvalued due to winning two straight and four of their last five.  But they have suffered blowout road losses to Eastern Michigan (by 12) and Western Michigan (by 20).  NIU beat EMU by 17 at home and lost to WMU by 14 on the road.

The Huskies are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 7-1 ATS at home this season.  Northern Illinois is 26-10-4 ATS in its last 40 conference games.  The Bulls are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Louisville -1

The Louisville Cardinals are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are coming off their most disappointing loss of the season, a 47-63 home loss to the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday where nothing went right.

The Cardinals shot just 32.7% from the field while allowing 57.8% to a Cavaliers team not known for their offense.  But that effort was definitely an aberration as the Cardinals are still 13-1 at home this season, and you can bet it's going to be rowdy in Louisville tonight with No. 2 North Carolina coming to town.

The Tar Heels are overvalued right now due to a 12-game winning streak, which includes an 8-0 start in ACC play.  But they couldn't have played an easier conference schedule to this point as five of their first eight games have been at home, and they've managed to avoid the big boys in the ACC like Louisville, Notre Dame, Duke, Miami and Pitt, which are five teams they will have to play in their next six games.

UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 15 or more of its last 20 games over the last three seasons.  Louisville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after failing to cover eight or more of its last 10 games against the spread coming in.  The Cardinals are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 games off a conference loss by 10 points or more.  Roll with Louisville Monday.

20* Oregon/ASU ESPNU Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona State +2.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils get to host the Oregon Ducks on Sunday in what I believe will be an easy win for the home team.  The Sun Devils are 9-3 at home this season and are coming off a blowout 86-68 win over Oregon State on their home floor Thursday.

One of my favorite things about this pick is the fact that this is a massive letdown spot for the Oregon Ducks.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 83-75 road victory over a depleted Arizona Wildcats team.  Now, the Ducks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as road favorites over ASU following that huge win.

Remember, Oregon is still just 2-3 in true road games this season with losses to the likes of Boise State, Oregon State and Colorado.  I believe Arizona State is a better squad than all three of those teams.  The Sun Devils are much better than their 12-9 record would indicate, too, as each of their last four losses have come by 7 points or less to some very good teams.  Their only double-digit losses this season both came in true road games at CBB powers Kentucky & Arizona.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OREGON) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 72-33 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.  The home team is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings with the only loss coming by a single point in overtime.  Bet Arizona State Sunday.

15* Memphis/SMU AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis +9.5

There are no longer any undefeated teams left in college basketball.  That's because SMU was upset 80-89 at Temple on Sunday to drop to 18-1 on the season.  Now, I fully expect the Mustangs to suffer a hangover from their first defeat of the year.

SMU did a great job of playing for pride up until that loss.  That's a hard thing for this team to do knowing that it won't be going to the NCAA Tournament due to sanctions.  I look for these players to start to let that realization sink in here in the coming games, especially after their first loss.  They won't be playing nearly as inspired basketball now as they did when they were going for a perfect season en route to their 18-0 start.

Plus, the Memphis Tigers are no pushovers.  I would certainly argue that they are better than their 13-7 record would indicate.  All seven of their losses have come by 10 points or less, including narrow losses to some very good teams in Oklahoma (by 6), Ole Miss (by 6), UConn (by 3) and Cincinnati (by 2).  Their biggest loss came on the road at South Carolina (by 10), and the Gamecocks are clearly one of the better teams in the country, too.

Memphis really needs a signature win to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, so it won't be lacking any motivation Saturday.  SMU is the perfect candidate.  The Mustangs are 0-6 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days this season.  SMU is 12-30 ATS in its last 42 home games vs. good offensive teams that score at least 77 points per game on the season.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games overall, which includes a 4-point win over Houston as 13.5-point favorites in their last home contest.  Roll with Memphis Saturday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco +17

Betting the San Francisco Dons on the road is one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.  They have been an awful bet at home through the years, but the reverse has been true on the road.  All they do is cash tickets on the road, especially in conference play.

That has been the case again this season as the Dons are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS on the road this season.  They have won 3 of their last 4 road games outright as underdogs with their only loss coming by 10 at BYU as 17-point dogs.  The Dons are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 road games overall.  San Francisco is a ridiculous 57-25-1 ATS in its last 83 WCC games.  This is the most undervalued team within the conference year in and year out.

I really like the Dons tonight because they have already proven they can play with Gonzaga.  They only lost 94-102 at home as 13.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 2nd.  Now they are catching 17 points on the road in revenge mode in the rematch.  And the Zags just aren't as dominant as they've been in year's past.  They are 16-5 SU & 6-12 ATS in all games this season.

San Francisco is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 points or more.  The Dons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  They won by 13 at Santa Clara as 2-point dogs and at Portland by 11 as 4.5-point dogs in their last two games.  Take San Francisco Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Kansas ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Kentucky +5

The Kentucky Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with blowout wins over Arkansas (by 14) on the road, along with Vanderbilt (by 19) and Missouri (by 34) at home.

After a poor loss at Auburn prior to this winning streak, John Calipari inserted Derek Willis into his starting lineup.  He is a stretch-shooting forward who has helped space the floor for the offense.  Willis is averaging 12.3 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in his last four and has given this team a huge lift on both ends.  Tyler Ulis is the best point guard in the country and has scored at least 20 points in seven of his past nine games.

Kansas is ripe for the upset tonight, even at Allen Fieldhouse.  This is the most vulnerable Jayhawks' team in can remember.  Kansas is 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Its only wins were uninspiring home victories over TCU (by 7 as 23-point favorites) and Texas (by 9 in a game they trailed most the way).  It has been blown out on the road by double-digits in its three losses to WVU (by 11), Oklahoma State (by 19) and Iowa State (by 13).

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENTUCKY) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 79-39 (66.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +8.5

I have won with Bowling Green when playing on the road multiple times this season.  Once again, the Falcons are in the role of a big underdog on the road against Central Michigan today, and I'll back them here again.

This role has served them very well recently.  Indeed, the Falcons are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four road games with four straight upsets as underdogs.  They won at Cleveland State (by 15) as 4-point dogs, at Ohio (by 16) as 10-point dogs, at Eastern Michigan (by 5) as 8.5-point dogs and at Western Michigan (by 1) as 4-point dogs.

What I really love about the Falcons here is that they won't be lacking any motivation.  That's because they will be out for revenge from a 67-79 home loss to Central Michigan on January 9 in a game that got away from them in the second half.  The Chippewas have been overvalued for much of the season as they are just 11-9 SU & 5-7 ATS in lined games.

The Falcons are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in over the last two seasons.  The Falcons are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Chippewas are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +27

The No. 2 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak coming into this showdown with Boston College.  While they have been winning, they haven't been covering, and they are certainly going to struggle to cover this massive 27-point spread today.

The Tar Heels are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued, but it hasn't stopped the betting public from backing them.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games with a 12-point win as 16-point favorites against NC State, a 15-point win as 19-point favorites against Wake Forest, and a 5-point win as 12.5-point favorites against VA Tech.  Those are three of the worst teams in the ACC, and the Tar Heels couldn't beat any of them by more than 15 despite playing twice at home.

Sure, Boston College is in the running for worst team in the ACC, too, but it is fully capable of staying within this 27-point spread.  The Eagles have played a gauntlet of a schedule to open ACC play, yet they have only lost one game by more than 27 points, which was a 28-point loss to Notre Dame.  They have played Duke, Notre Dame (twice), Syracuse, Pitt, Miami and Florida State in their first seven ACC games, so they are certainly battle-tested, which will help them here.

Boston College has played UNC reasonably tough in recent meetings as its last six losses to the Tar Heels have all come by less than 27 points (18, 11, 11, 12, 23, 2).  The Tar Heels are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.   UNC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to UNC.

UNC is 1-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-8 ATS in home games off a win against a conference opponent over the last two years.  The Eagles are 35-18 ATS in their last 53 road games off a home loss.  It's also worth noting that the Tar Heels will likely be looking ahead to their huge showdown at Louisville on Monday and overlooking the Eagles here.  Roll with Boston College Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota +19.5

This is the perfect storm.  The Minnesota Golden Gophers could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now, while the Indiana Hoosiers could not possibly be more overvalued.  As a result, oddsdmakers have set this line too high, and we'll take advantage by backing the Gophers as 19.5-point underdogs.

Minnesota is undervalued because it is just 6-15 on the season and 0-9 in Big Ten play.  But the Gophers have been fighting for their first conference win of late, and it has led to solid results at the pay window.  They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with a 7-point loss to Indiana, a 5-point loss at Michigan, a 5-point loss to Illinois and a 4-point loss to Purdue.  So, they have been ultra-competitive in four straight.

Indiana is overvalued because it is tied for first place in the Big Ten with a 7-1 record.  It has recent blowout home wins over Ohio State, Illinois and Northwestern that have also added to the Hoosiers being overvalued.  But they aren't just going to be able to put away the Gophers by 20 points tonight, especially after only beating them by 7 in their first meeting this season on January 16.  I especially like getting the Gophers at +19.5 in revenge mode in the rematch.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.  In fact, Indiana hasn't beaten Minnesota by more than 19 points in any of the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Gophers pertaining to this 19.5-point spread today.  Take Minnesota Saturday.

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -1.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  That's because they are just 10-10 on the season, but that record is not indicative of the type of team this is.  Rick Barnes has a special group that has been improving tremendously in SEC play.

Five of the Volunteers' six losses in SEC play have come by single-digits, including a 4-point loss to Texas A&M.  They have beaten the likes of Florida (by 14) and South Carolina (by 9) to prove what they are capable of.  Now the schedule eases up as they get to face the worst team in the Big 12 in the TCU Horned Frogs.

Indeed, TCU is 1-7 in Big 12 play with its only win coming by a single point at home.  It has blowout losses to Oklahoma State (by 21), Baylor (by 28), Iowa State (by 13) and Texas (by 17).  The Horned Frogs have been way overmatched in hoops ever since they joined the Big 12, and they are overmatched once again against Tennessee here today despite the fact that they are stepping outside the conference.

The Volunteers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games.  Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Volunteers are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  TCU is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -3.5

The Florida State Seminoles are one of the most talented teams in the country, but the betting public doesn't realize it.  That talent has really started to show through here in recent games as head coach Leonard Hamilton has the Seminoles playing their best ball of the season coming in.

Indeed, the Seminoles have won three of their last five games.  They've beaten NC State by 7 on the road, Virginia by 7 at home, and Boston College by 10 at home.  Their only two losses came on the road at Louisville and at home to Pitt (by 2).  Now they are going to want revenge from a 75-84 road loss at Clemson in their first meeting with the Tigers this season on January 2nd.

Clemson could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  That's because it has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  But the Tigers have done most their damage at home.  They are just 1-4 in true road games this season, losing at Minnesota (by 6), at Georgia (by 23), at UNC (by 11) and at Virginia (by 7).  Their only road win came at Syracuse (by 1) back when the Orange didn't have Jim Boeheim on the sidelines.

Clemson is 6-15 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Hamilton is 35-21 ATS revenging a same season loss as the coach of Florida State.  Hamilton is 55-32 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game as the coach of the Seminoles.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* GA Tech/Syracuse ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange have been a completely different team with Jim Boeheim at the helm.  They did not play well during his 9-game suspension, but they have been hitting on all cylinders since he returned.

Indeed, the Orange are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Boston College (by 22) and Notre Dame (by 15) at home, while also topping both Wake Forest (by 28) and Duke (by 2) on the road.  Their only loss came at Virginia (by 8) as 9.5-point road dogs.

Georgia Tech has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers today.  The Yellow Jackets are just 2-4 in true road games this season with their only wins coming at Tulane (by 8) and NC State (by 7).  Their four road losses have come to Georgia (by 14), UNC (by 8), Pitt (by 5) and Notre Dame (by 8).  They have lost three of their last four games overall coming in, including an ugly home loss to Virginia Tech.

Brian Gregory is 21-37 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Georgia Tech.  Gregory is 13-26 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  The Orange continue to roll today at home.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona State -4.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face the Oregon State Beavers.  The Sun Devils have lost three straight and are 1-6 to open Pac-12 play.

But they have played a tough schedule and have been down on their luck.  All six losses came by 12 points or less, including back-to-back road losses to Cal (70-75) and Stanford (73-75) by a combined six points.  A little home cooking will do them wonders tonight.

Arizona State is 8-3 at home this season.  It will be up against an Oregon State team that is just 2-4 in its last six games overall with both of its wins coming at home over Cal and USC.  The Beavers are 0-2 in Pac-12 road games with a 17-point loss to Colorado and a 6-point loss at Utah.

Arizona State is 15-2 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Oregon State, including a 73-55 dismantling last year.  Oregon State is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 road games.  The Beavers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  Take Arizona State Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -2

The Syracuse Orange represent my favorite play of the season in the ACC tonight when they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as only 2-point home favorites.  Look for them to roll to victory tonight.

Syracuse has been a completely different team with Jim Boeheim at the helm.  Boeheim was suspended for 9 games earlier this season, but when he's been on the sideline, his team has responded.

The Orange are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The beat Boston College by 22 at home, Wake Forest by 28 on the road, Duke by 2 on the road, and lost to Virginia by 8 on the road as 9.5-point dogs.

Notre Dame comes in overvalued due to also going 4-0 SU in its last four games overall.  But the difference is that the Fighting Irish have played three of their last four at home against soft competition in GA Tech, VA Tech and Boston College.

The Fighting Irish will be without their best player tonight in Demetrius Jackson.  He leads the team in scoring (16.6 ppg) and assists (5.0 apg) and cannot be replaced.  This will be the first game that he has missed this season, and the Irish will be lost without him.

Syracuse is 10-2 SU in its last 12 home meetings with Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games off a conference win by 20 points or more.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SYRACUSE) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Bet Syracuse Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston +1

The Houston Cougars have lost four straight coming in to fall to 13-6 on the season.  They have had road games at SMU and Cincinnati, as well as a home game against UConn during this stretch with their only bad loss coming to South Florida.
 
But they are undervalued due to this recent stretch, and now they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  The Cougars have been dominant at home this season, going 10-2 while outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.

Tulsa is on the opposite end of the spectrum.  It is overvalued right now due to going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games.  But three of those came at home against ECU, UConn and UCF, while two were on the road at Tulane and ECU.

So the Golden Hurricane have simply taken advantage of an extremely easy schedule against the AAC's bottom feeders.  They had lost at home to SMU by 12 and at Cincinnati by 19 to open AAC play.  They'll get a rude awakening tonight against Houston.

The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Houston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games.  The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.  The Golden Hurricane are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with Houston Wednesday.

15* Florida/Vanderbilt ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt -4.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are in desperate need of a win today.  They are just 11-8 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament if they don't start piling up the wins soon.  As a result, look for them to come through with one of their best efforts of the season tonight.

Vanderbilt appeared to turn the corner with three straight blowout wins over Auburn (by 18), Alabama (by 8) and Tennessee (by 14) prior to facing Kentucky on Saturday.  But then it ran into a buzz saw in the Wildcats, who won 57-76 and are playing their best ball of the season.  But that defeat now has the Commodores back to being undervalued.

Florida comes in overvalued due to going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Gators have played extremely well at home, going 9-1, but it has been a different story on the road.  Florida is just 2-4 in true road games this season, while Vanderbilt is 8-2 in home games.  The Commodores are outscoring teams by 19.4 points per game at home this year.

The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, so clearly home-court advantage has been huge.  The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games following a ATS loss.  The Gators are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games following a ATS loss.  Florida is 6-19-2 ATS in its last 27 games following a straight up win.  Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown -3

The Georgetown Hoyas have been one of the most frustrating teams in the country.  They have the talent to beat anyone, and they showed that recently with an 81-72 win at Xavier as 9.5-point underdogs.  But they haven't always lived up to their potential.

Their potential has also seen them suffer narrow road losses at Maryland (by 4), Duke (by 2) and UConn (by 6), as well as a home loss to Villanova (by 5).  But one thing is certain tonight, they will be laying it all on the line to get a victory.

That's because the Hoyas want revenge from a 66-79 loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for the Hoyas in this series as they had gone 4-0 in their previous four meetings with three of those wins coming by 12 points or more.  Creighton is simply overvalued here after winning four of its last five games coming in.

Plays on a home team (GEORGETOWN) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less are 47-18 (72.3%) ATS since 1997.  The Hoyas are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games following a straight up loss, so they have been extremely resilient in recent seasons.  Bet Georgetown Tuesday.

20* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones are right back in the thick of the Big 12 title race.  They opened 1-3 in conference play with three tough, close losses, but they have reeled off three straight wins since.

They have beaten both Kansas State and TCU by double-digits on the road, as well as then-No. 1 Oklahoma at home last Monday.  Now they can pull even with the Kansas Jayhawks with another home victory tonight, which I think they'll get.

Hilton Coliseum is easily one of the Top 5 toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones have won 16 of their last 19 home games versus ranked opponents.  They have won three of their last four meetings with the Jayhawks, including an 86-81 home victory last year, and a 70-66 win in the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas has looked extremely vulnerable of late.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall with road losses to West Virginia (by 11) and Oklahoma State (by 19), as well as lackluster home wins over TCU (by 7) and Texas (by 9).  But because they are the Jayhawks, they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Kansas is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games coming in.  Iowa State is 25-4 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or a pick 'em.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* Providence/Villanova FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Providence +13

This 13-point spread would indicate that there is a big gap between Providence and Villanova, but I'm not buying it.  I see a ton of value in backing the Friars as massive road underdogs to the Wildcats today.

Providence (16-3) is one of the better teams in the country.  It has been undervalued on the road all season, going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in all games played away from home.  I look for the Friars to travel well again in a crucial Big East game today.

Villanova (17-2) is clearly one of the better teams in the country as well.  In fact, the Wildcats might be the best team in the Big East, but Xavier and Providence are close behind.  But the Wildcats do get respect from oddsmakers, while the Friars and Musketeers do not.

Providence is 11-2 ATS in road games after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with Providence Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +17

This play is strictly a fade of St. Mary's in an awful spot.  The Gaels are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-67 home victory over Gonzaga in the come-from-behind variety on Thursday.

Now, the Gaels must get up for a 9-12 Portland team just two days later.  I look for the Gaels to come out very flat in this game, and as a result it will be a much closer contest throughout than it otherwise would be.

Portland has gone on the road and hung with some tough teams this season.  The Pilots only lost 74-85 as 19-point road underdogs to Gonzaga, so they have already proven they can play with the big boys.  They will prove it again here Saturday at St. Mary's.

Portland beat St. Mary's 69-52 in the WCC Tournament last year.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less as well.  The Pilots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, including 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above 60%.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Portland Saturday.

15* Maryland/Michigan State ESPN No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5

The Michigan State Spartans will be more motivated for a victory tonight against Maryland than they have been at any other point in the season.  I'll gladly put my money on the Spartans when their backs are against the wall under Tom Izzo.

The Spartans have unfathomably lost three straight games coming in.  Two were 1-point losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, but they have actually lost two of the three at home.  That is unheard of for an Izzo-coached team, and you can bet he has been on his players.  Look for them to respond in a big way tonight.

Maryland has been extremely vulnerable in spite of its 17-2 record.  It needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home last time out.  It also only won by 3 at Wisconsin and lost by 3 at Michigan.  Those three results have all happened in its last four games, where it easily could have gone 1-3 instead of 3-1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams who win 80% or more of their games on the season are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1997.

Michigan State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 games off a close loss by 3 points or less, and 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a loss by 6 points or less.  This team has responded very well to close losses, and I look for that to be the case again Saturday night on a big stage against the Terrapins.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -6

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are in a massive letdown spot Saturday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 upset of No. 3 Kansas at home on Tuesday.  They won't show up with the same kind of effort against Kansas State that they played with against the Jayhawks.

Kansas State is a much better team than its 1-5 record within the Big 12 would indicate.  It has lost to West Virginia by 4, Texas by 3, Oklahoma by 10 and Baylor by 7 with three of those losses coming on the road.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in Big 12 play and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they have been vastly underrated.

Kansas State is 8-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.3 points per game.  Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games this year, getting outscored by 13.0 points per game.  That includes road losses at Baylor (by 17) and at West Virginia (by 17) to open Big 12 play.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings between the Wildcats and Cowboys since 2012.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Cowboys.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cowboys are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on TCU +10

The Iowa State Cyclones are in an awful spot here.  They are coming off their first win over a #1 ranked team since 1957 with their 82-77 victory over Oklahoma on Monday.  That fact alone sets them up for a letdown here.

But this is also a lookahead spot for the Cyclones, who will face No. 3 Kansas on Monday.  They will be overlooking TCU here and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks.  As a result, they are going to struggle to win by double-digits, which is what oddsmakers are asking them to do here.

TCU has been competitive in Big 12 play despite its 1-5 record within the conference.  It has an 8-point home loss to West Virginia, a 1-point home win over Texas, a 7-point road loss at Kansas, and a 7-point home loss to Texas Tech. So, it has not lost at home in Big 12 play by more than 8 points in three games this season.

Plays against road teams as an favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%), good rebounding team (+3 to +6 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 15+ games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet TCU Saturday.