Winning Sports Picks

20* Penn State/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -8.5 

The Purdue Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  After opening 12-0 in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers have shockingly lost three straight to lose their stranglehold on the conference title.  Look for them to put forth their biggest effort of the season tonight to get back on track. 

Penn State comes in overvalued due to its four-game winning streak.  But three of those four games were at home with their only road win coming at Illinois, which is the worst team in the Big Ten. 

Purdue is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Penn State.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Penn State) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent that’s off an upset loss as a road favorite are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Purdue Sunday. 

15* Houston/Temple AAC ANNIHILATOR on Temple +3

The Houston Cougars are in a massive letdown spot today.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 67-62 upset home win over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats were previously unbeaten in AAC play. 

While the Cougars are 13-0 at home, they have been vulnerable on the road at 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS in all road games.  Now they’re up against a feisty Temple team that will be hungry for revenge from a 73-76 road loss at Houston in their first meeting this season. 

Temple is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Owls are 7-2 SU in their last nine games with their only losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and at Wichita State. 

The Owls are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Sunday. 

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Louisville -1 

The Louisville Cardinals have done a tremendous job of focusing this season amidst the Rick Pitino scandal.  They currently are 18-8 and one of the better teams in the ACC with an 8-5 record. 

I think the Cardinals are primed to ‘upset’ the ranked UNC Tar Heels at home today.  Louisville is 14-3 at home while outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. 

The Cardinals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Louisville is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after two straight games where they allowed 37% shooting or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons.  Take Louisville Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston College +1 

The Boston College Eagles are actually on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament with a 16-10 record on the season.  They need a big push here at the end and can get to .500 in ACC play with a win Saturday.   

It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory to avenge an 85-96 loss at Notre Dame in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  But now the Eagles get them at home, where they are 13-2 this season with wins over the likes of Duke, Florida State and Miami.  Their only two home losses came by a combined 9 points with one coming in overtime. 

The Fighting Irish have struggled ever since losing Bonzie Colson to an injury.  They are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  I think they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as road favorites over the Eagles. 

Boston College is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest -1 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing well right now.  They have recent home wins over both Florida State and Georgia Tech, and their last three losses were all competitive as they lost by 8 at home to Clemson, by 6 at Miami and by 8 at Syracuse. 

Home-court advantage means a ton when NC State and Wake Forest get together.  In fact, the home team is 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The home team is also 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.   

NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following an ATS win. NC State is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +14.5 

This is a terrible spot for Boise State.  The Broncos are coming off a 72-77 home loss to Nevada.  Now with two losses to Nevada this season, they aren’t going to win the Mountain West, which was their goal.  They are clearly in a hangover spot here today. 

Plus, Air Force is going to be out for revenge from a hard-fought 64-70 home loss to Boise State as 8.5-point underdogs on January 27th.  Now the Falcons are catching 14.5 points in the rematch, which is more than enough for them to cover. 

The Falcons have been grossly undervalued in Mountain West play this season as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Boise State is 1-10 ATS in February games over the past two seasons.  Air Force is 7-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Roll with Air Force Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU -1.5 

The Missouri Tigers are getting too much love right now due to their five-game winning streak.  Well, all five wins have come by single-digits, so they have been fortunate in close games.  And they are primed for a letdown off a 62-58 home win over Texas A&M last time out. 

LSU has been one of the more underrated teams in the SEC, especially when they play at home.  They are 10-4 at home this season.  They have have three straight impressive home wins over Texas A&M (77-65), Arkansas (94-86) and Ole Miss (82-66). 

Missouri is 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  LSU is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three home meetings with Missouri.  Take LSU Saturday. 

20* Rhode Island/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams are 13-0 in Atlantic 10 play and already have the conference title wrapped up.  I can’t help but think they are going to relax here down the stretch, and they are clearly overvalued right now. 

St. Bonaventure is the second-best team in the Atlantic 10 in my opinion.  They are the only team capable of beating Rhode Island, and they’re at home tonight in what will be a hostile atmosphere against a ranked foe. 

St. Bonaventure is 19-6 on the season, including 10-1 in home games where they’re winning by 16.0 points per game.  The Bonnies come in playing their best basketball of the season having won seven straight. 

The Rams suffered a big blow when second-leading scorer E.C. Matthews was forced to leave last game with an injury.  He is very questionable to play tonight.  Matthews averages 12.9 points per game on the season and is a veteran leader on this team. 

Rhode Island is 1-11 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +1.5 

The Washington Huskies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have managed to go 17-8 and are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. 

Off two consecutive road losses, I look for the Huskies to come out highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  The Huskies have handled their business at home this season with a 13-2 mark at home.  They will be out for revenge from a 62-70 loss at Utah in their first meeting this season. 

Utah is coming off back-to-back home victories and is getting too much respect from the books now.  The Utes have gone just 1-4 in their last five Pac-12 road games with three of those losses coming by double-digits. 

Utah is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 37% or less shooting in two consecutive games coming in.  The Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Take Washington Thursday. 

20* Cincinnati/Houston AAC No-Brainer on Houston +3 

The Cincinnati Bearcats basically have the AAC locked up with a 12-0 record and a three-game lead over Houston.  So they can afford to relax tonight and lose their first conference game and it’s really not going to hurt them.  I think Houston will be the more motivated team here tonight. 

Houston is a team that is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, and a win over Cincinnati would likely help push them in.  They are 19-5 this season and a perfect 12-0 at home, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.5 points per game on their home floor. 

Houston actually led Cincinnati by 18 on the road in their first meeting this season, but the Bearcats came storming back and won 80-70.  That clearly places the Cougars in revenge mode tonight, and that game clearly showed they could play with the Bearcats. 

The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. Houston is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Bearcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Houston Thursday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -3 

The Southern Illinois Salukis need to be more than 3-point home favorites tonight over Missouri State.  The Salukis have been the second-best team in the MVC this season with a 17-10 overall record and a 9-5 mark in conference play.  They are only two games back of Loyola-Chicago and certainly want to hold on to the No. 2 seed. 

The Salukis have taken care of their home court this season.  They are 12-2 in home games with an average victory of 10.9 points per game.  They are 6-1 at home in MVC play.  They already beat Missouri State 79-77 on the road in their first meeting this season.  That is nothing new in this series as the Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Missouri State is getting way too much respect fro back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Evansville.  But the Bears were just 2-7 SU & 0-9 ATS in their nine games prior.  This team simply isn’t very good this season and is no match for Southern Illinois tonight. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Missouri State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Salukis are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU +3 

Wrong team favored here.  The VCU Rams should not be home underdogs to the Davidson Wildcats.  These are two evenly-matched teams in the Atlantic 10 with Davidson at 8-4 and VCU at 7-5.  But the home-court advantage and the motivation for the Rams to catch the Wildcats in the standings makes VCU the right side tonight. 

VCU has gone 11-4 SU & &-4 ATS at home this season.  Three of those four losses came to ranked Virginia and Rhode Island teams, as well as Texas.  The only upset loss was to Richmond, and Richmond also beat Davidson on the road earlier this season. 

Davidson is just 4-7 in true road games this season.  The four wins have come against terrible teams in Charlotte as a 9-point favorite, George Mason as a 6-point favorite, Fordham as an 8-point favorite and George Washington as a 7-point favorite.  The Wildcats also suffered upset road losses at Appalachian State, Hawaii and Richmond. 

VCU is 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are winning by 16.8 points per game in this spot.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Take VCU Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State -4 

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against Clemson. They have lost two straight and three of their last four and need a signature win against a ranked team here to stay on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Two of those three losses came on the road, while the other was a 55-59 home loss to top-ranked Virginia in which the Seminoles blew a double-digit lead.  Look for them to be able to handle Clemson tonight and improve upon their impressive 10-2 home record where they are winning by 15.6 points per game on average. 

The Tigers are overvalued right now due to their four-game winning streak.  But they have feasted on weak competition with their four wins coming against Pitt, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and UNC (at home).  Prior to this winning streak, they had lost each of their previous three road games in ACC play.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games overall. 

Florida State is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons, winning by 19.5 points per game in this spot.  Clemson is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are losing by 16.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet Florida State Wednesday. 

15* Virginia/Miami ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Miami +6 

After reaching No. 1 in the poll for the first time in 36 years, the Virginia Cavaliers are sure to relax a little.  They already started that with their upset loss to Virginia Tech as 12-point home favorites over the weekend.  But because they are No. 1, they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers as 6-point road favorites at Miami tonight. 

Miami is in need of a signature win that will help its case for the NCAA Tournament.  There’s no question the Hurricanes will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight hosting the top-ranked team in the country.  I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season. 

Miami has been an extremely tough out at home this year.  The Hurricanes are 9-1 at home while winning by 15.2 points per game on average.  Their only home loss came to Duke after they blew a double-digit second half lead.  Miami is 6-1 straight up in its last seven home meetings with Virginia with its only loss coming in overtime.  Roll with Miami Tuesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Richmond +16 

I’ve been riding the Richmond Spiders hard of late because they are so undervalued due to their 9-15 record.  They are much better than that record would indicate, and each of their last seven losses have come by 9 points or less, so they’ve simply had poor luck in close games. 

Richmond has gotten on track in conference play here of late.  The Spiders are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five outright upsets.  They went on the road and beat VCU 67-52 as 8.5-point underdogs and also topped Davidson 66-63 as 11-point dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 16 points from Rhode Island tonight. 

Sure, Rhode Island is the best team in the Atlantic 10, but I can’t help but think the Rams are primed for a letdown tonight.  That’s because they are 12-0 in the conference and have a whopping four-game lead over second place (8-4).  They can afford to relax a little here down the stretch with such a big lead in the conference. 

Richmond is 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Spiders are 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 85 points or more over the last two years.  Richmond is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Spiders tonight.  Bet Richmond Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +1 

What more do the Nebraska Cornhuskers have to do to get some respect?  Apparently it doesn’t matter what they do because they’re undervalued game in and game out.  And I believe that to be the case once again as they are shockingly home underdogs to Maryland tonight. 

Nebraska has gone 12-3 SU in its last 15 games overall.  The only losses were a 5-point loss at Ohio State as 12-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Penn State as 7.5-point dogs and a 12-point loss at Purdue as 21-point dogs.  More impressively, the Huskers are a ridiculous 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games.  Nebraska has certainly handled its business at home with a 13-1 SU & 10-2 ATS record this season. 

Maryland is clearly down this season.  The Terrapins are just 3-6 in their last nine games overall with all three victories coming at home.  Maryland is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only victory coming against lonely Illinois (92-91) by a single point. 

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season.  The Huskers are 9-0 ATS off a conference win this season.  Nebraska is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 Big Ten contests.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* Notre Dame/UNC ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10.5 

The UNC Tar Heels are in a massive letdown spot tonight at home against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over Duke and NC State by a combined 11 points.  Those are their two biggest rivals, and it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after two such big wins. 

I also like the fact that Notre Dame is grossly undervalued right now.  The Fighting Irish had lost seven straight while going 1-6 ATS before the return of star PG Matt Farrell.  But they have turned it around since his return from injury, winning their last two in blowout fashion over Boston College (96-85) and Florida State (84-69). 

Now the Fighting Irish will be highly motivated for revenge from a 69-68 home loss to North Carolina as 5-point underdogs back on January 13th, which was the second game of their seven-game skid.  And it’s worth noting that both Bonzie Colson and Farrell sat out that game due to injury.  Well, now Farrell (16.5 ppg, 5.2 apg) is back and he makes all the difference for this team running the show at point guard. 

North Carolina is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Tar Heels.  Roll with Notre Dame Monday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +14 

Mike Dunleavy has done a great job of turning around this Tulane program already.  He has the Green Wave sitting at 13-10 on the season, and one of their wins was an 81-72 upset home win over this same Houston team that they will be facing today. 

Tulane leading scorer Melvin Frazier missed the team’s last game with a chest injury, but they played well in an 89-91 loss at Tulsa as 6.5-point underdogs.  Frazier is questionable to return today.  I’m not too concerned if he does or not because this is a deep Green Wave team that boasts five players scoring in double figures this season. 

I think Houston is getting too much love from oddsmakers tonight due to its 11-0 home record.  Well, the Cougars were trailing late against SMU at home last time out and were fortunate to win 67-58.  That was an SMU team playing without its two best players, too. 

Houston is 1-12 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the past two seasons.  It is actually losing to these teams by 7.6 points per game on average.  The Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Tulane Sunday. 

25* Gonzaga/St. Mary’s WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Mary’s -1.5 

The reputation Gonzaga has built up from years past has the Bulldogs massively overrated this season.  That has been especially the case of late as Gonzaga is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Now the Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from the books as only 1.5-point underdogs at St. Mary’s. 

It’s clear to me that St. Mary’s is simply the better team this season.  The Gaels are 24-2 and already went on the road and beat Gonzaga 74-71 as 7.5-point underdogs in their first meeting.  Now the Gaels will cap off the season sweep in front of a rowdy home crowd tonight.  The Gaels are 14-0 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game on average.  Bet St. Mary’s Saturday. 

15* Kentucky/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5 

It has been a tale of two seasons for Texas A&M.  The Aggies have been virtually unbeatable when they’ve been healthy, and they couldn’t win when they had players banged up.  Well, they’re back to being healthy and it’s starting to show on the court. 

The Aggies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Arkansas by 14 and South Carolina by 23 at home, while also upsetting Auburn as 6-point road underdogs.  Now their mission will be to get revenge from a 73-74 loss at Kentucky back when they weren’t healthy in their first meeting this season. 

This is as vulnerable as I remember Kentucky ever being under John Calipari.  The Wildcats are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost by 9 at Missouri and by 8 at South Carolina in two recent road games, two teams that aren’t nearly as good as Texas A&M. 

Kentucky is 0-6 ATS after a game with 9 or fewer assets over the past two seasons.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Dobut Rout on Saint Louis -3.5 

The Saint Louis Billikens have been grossly undervalued over the last few weeks.  They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 SU in their last seven games with one of their losses coming by a single point to VCU.  I think the fact that they are coming off a 23-point loss at St. Bonaventure has them undervalued tonight. 

Saint Louis should be able to handle a 10-14 LaSalle squad that has been overvalued for over a month.  In fact, the Explorers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are just 2-12 SU in games played away from home this season. 

Saint Louis is a perfect 13-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  La Salle is 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Explorers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Billikens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +12 

The Virginia Cavaliers cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  After going 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in conference play to this point, the Cavaliers have the attention of the betting public.  Now they are laying a whopping 12 points today to Virginia Tech. 

I think we see Virginia relax a little here down the stretch because they basically already have the ACC title wrapped up.  And they already beat VA Tech 78-52 on the road earlier this season, so they probably think they just have to show up to win. 

But that won’t be the case as VA Tech is a pesky bunch that will fight you for 40 minutes under Buzz Williams.  And the Hokies have really gotten it going of late with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in run in their last five games overall.  That includes blowout home wins over UNC (by 11) and NC State (by 10), as well all road wins at Notre Dame and Boston College. 

The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven after three straight games where both teams scored 75 or more points.  VA Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5 

This is a terrible spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 64-63 road win at No. 3 Purdue on Wednesday.  That win tied them for first place in the Big Ten with the Boilermakers.  It is only human nature for them to suffer a letdown tonight off such a massive victory. 

Iowa has been playing much better of late, going 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Hawkeyes just took Michigan State to the wire and actually had an 8-point lead late in that game, but lost 93-96 as 10-point underdogs.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face another ranked foe in Ohio State tonight. 

Ohio State is 4-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three season.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  Ohio State is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Nebraska, Penn State and Illinois have all played Ohio State to close games on the road recently, and the Hawkeyes can do just that too.  Bet Iowa Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +2.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide need a signature win here to improve their tournament resume.  They have that chance against a ranked Tennessee opponent that is primed for a letdown following its upset road win at Kentucky earlier this week. 

Alabama has beaten some very good teams at home this season.  The Crimson Tide pulled upsets over both Auburn and Oklahoma, and they also beat the likes of Texas A&M at home.  They are 10-2 at home this season. 

Alabama is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Alabama is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings.  Roll with Alabama Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Richmond +10.5 

Richmond is grossly undervalued right now due to its 9-14 record.  But the Spiders are much better than that as they have simply had bad luck in close games.  Each of their last six losses have come by 8 points or less. 

But the Spiders have got on track in conference play here of late.  They are now 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with five outright upsets.  They went on the road and beat VCU 67-52 as 8.5-point dogs and Davidson 66-63 as 11-point dogs.  They should not be catching 10.5 points today against St. Bonaventure. 

Richmond is 8-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 1-8 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Richmond Saturday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +13 

The Pacific Tigers have been money-making machines this season, especially in conference play.  Pacific has gone 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers as 13-point home underdogs to Gonzaga tonight. 

Conversely, Gonzaga continues to get way too much respect from oddsmakers based on what they’ve done in years’ past.  But this Bulldogs team isn’t nearly as good as previous years.  That has shown here of late as the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

I can’t help but think Gonzaga is going to be looking ahead to a huge showdown with St. Mary’s on Saturday.  The Bulldogs want revenge from a 71-74 home loss to the Gaels.  They know that game will likely decide the conference, and they won’t be paying as much attention to Pacific tonight as they should be. 

Pacific is 11-1 ATS off a conference game this season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus good rebounding teams out rebounding their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Pacific Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -8.5 

The Houston Cougars are a legit NCAA Tournament team this season.  They have gone 17-5 on the year, and most of their damage has been done at home.  They are 10-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 21.7 points per game.  They throttled Wichita State 73-59 at home a few weeks back. 

SMU is having a down season at 15-8.  But the Mustangs have really struggled of late, going 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost their last two road games by 11 at Connecticut and by 9 at Tulsa, two teams that aren’t nearly as strong as Houston. 

The biggest reason for the Mustangs’ struggles has been injuries.  It all started when Jarrey Foster (13.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg), their second-leading scorer, was lost for the season with a torn ACL in late January.  But now their best player in Shake Milton (18.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg) suffered a hand injury last time out that will force him out of action for the foreseeable future. 

The Mustangs are 1-7 ATS in their last six road games.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS int heir last six home games.  Houston is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  SMU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Houston Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Richmond +2 

The Richmond Spiders are just 8-14 on the season and grossly underrated because of that record.  They are more like a 14-8 team, but they’ve had terrible luck in close games.  In fact, each of their last six losses have come by 8 points or less. 

We’ve seen what Richmond has been capable here of late.  The Spiders are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes a 67-52 win at VCU as 8.5-point dogs and a 66-63 win at Davidson as 11-point dogs. 

The only game Richmond lost during this stretch came last time out in an upset home loss to George Mason by a final of 75-79 as 7-point favorites.  However, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder De’Monte Buckingham (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.4 apg) was suspended for that game.  Well, Buckingham returns tonight and should provide a huge lift to the team. 

VCU is down big-time this season compared to years’ past.  But the Rams get the reputation that they’re still one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 when that simply isn’t the case.  They are just 14-9 this season and tied with Richmond in the conference standings at 6-4.  And with Richmond already beating VCU by 15 on the road, there’s no way the Spiders should be home underdogs in the rematch. 

VCU is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 Wednesday games.  Richmond is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 Wednesday games.  The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with Richmond Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -8 

The Florida Gators come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to Georgia and Alabama.  They have responded well following losses this year, and they are certainly much better than they’ve shown over these past two games. 

Now the Gators have a great chance to get back in the win column in blowout fashion against LSU tonight.  The Tigers are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven’t even been competitive in their last two road games, losing by 23 at Tennessee and by 25 at Auburn. 

LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  The Tigers are 11-26 ATS off a win over the last three years.  Florida is 78-48 ATS in its last 126 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  LSU is 3-14 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Take Florida Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -1 

The Ole Miss Rebels have been extremely tough at home this season, especially in SEC play.  They are 10-4 at home this year.  But they are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, winning and covering against the likes of Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina.   

Their only home loss during this stretch came to Auburn by a final of 70-79, which is the best team in the SEC.  Off three consecutive losses, it’s safe to say the Rebels will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Missouri Tigers. 

Off back-to-back wins over Alabama and Kentucky, I believe Missouri comes into this game overvalued.  The Tigers are just 3-4 in true road games this season.  They have recent double-digits road losses to the likes of Mississippi State and Texas A&M. 

It’s safe to say that Ole Miss owns Missouri.  In fact, the Rebels are 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Missouri.  Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Rebels are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss overall.  Missouri is 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Ole Miss is 13-1 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +1.5 

The Northwestern Wildcats have gotten it together here of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  Now I look for them to handle their business as home underdogs to Michigan tonight. 

The lone loss during this stretch for the Wildcats came at Michigan on January 29th just a week ago by a final of 47-58.  The Wildcats lost the turnover battle 16-5 in that game, so that was the difference.  Look for them to take much better care of the ball at home tonight and to be highly motivated for revenge on the Wolverines. 

Michigan is 9-18 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  Northwestern is 14-5 ATS after covering two of its last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 10-3 at home this season and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Tuesday.

20* Xavier/Butler Big East No-Brainer on Butler -3.5 

The Butler Bulldogs are absolutely rolling right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning the four by 12, 25, 20 and 23 points.  Now they will be playing at home tonight, where they have one of the best advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this year. 

Butler will be highly motivated for a victory here to avenge a 79-86 road loss to Xavier back on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think Butler has improved significantly since that loss and will be ready for the challenge tonight.  After all, Butler did beat Villanova at home, handing the Wildcats their only loss this season. 

Xavier comes in overvalued due to winning six straight and being ranked No. 5 in the country.  But their wins have not come easy.  In fact, nine of Xavier’s last 12 wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply had good fortune in close games, but I think their luck will run out tonight. 

Butler is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games off a win this season.  Plays on home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Butler) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Butler Tuesday. 

15* Seton Hall/Villanova Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +12.5 

The Villanova Wildcats have a huge target on their backs right now because they are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that will be tough to live up to. 

There’s no way Villanova should be a 12.5-point favorite today against a Seton Hall team that is among the best in the Big East at 17-5 this season.  The Pirates are coming off back-to-back blowout victories by 16 at DePaul and by 16 at home over Providence, and now they’re ready to give the Wildcats a run for their money. 

This is a Seton Hall team that is absolutely loaded due to returning its four best players from last season.  That team only lost 55-53 to Villanova in the Big East Tournament as 11.5-point underdogs.  All four starters that returned are averaging at least 13 points per game in Desi Rodriquez (17.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg), Myles Powell (14.5 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (14.2 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Angel Delgado (13.2 ppg, 12.1 rpg). 

Seton Hall is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games when playing against a team that has won more than 80% of its games after 15-plus games.  The Pirates are 22-9 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Villanova is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games.  Roll with Seton Hall Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego +10.5 

What more does San Diego have to do to get some respect?  The Toreros are one of the most improved teams in the country this season at 15-8 on the year.  That includes a 9-3 home record with their three losses all coming by single-digits. 

San Diego only lost 63-70 at St. Mary’s as 13.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 6th.  Now the Toreros are catching a whopping 10.5 points at home in the rematch, and they’ll clearly be out for revenge. 

St. Mary’s is clearly getting too much love right now from the books due to its 22-2 record and No. 13 national ranking.  Four of the Gaels’ last five wins have been relatively close.  I think they feel like they can just show up and win tonight, but that won’t be the case. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (St. Mary’s) off three or more consecutive undress, a good offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against an average offensive team (67-74 ppg) after 15-plus games are 68-33 (67.3%) ATS since 1997.  Take San Diego Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +23 

Because they are 0-10 in ACC play, the Pitt Panthers are grossly undervalued right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has inflated their lines recently.  As a result, the Panthers have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. 

The Panthers are improving rapidly because they are such a young team this year under Kevin Stallings.  During their 5-0 ATS run, they have been competitive in four of the five games, including a 5-point loss to Syracuse and a 4-point loss to NC State. 

Conversely, UNC continues to be grossly overrated despite going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games.  In fact, the Tar Heels have only covered the spread in one of their last 10 games overall.  They cannot be laying 23 points to Pitt here, especially with a lookahead game on deck with rival Duke up next. 

Kevin Stallings is 7-0 ATS off six or more consecutive losses as the coach of Pittsburgh.  We’ll take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

The Michigan State Spartans are distracted right now from the Larry Nassar deal.  Head coach Tom Izzo keeps refusing to answer questions in the media, which only furthers the suspicion.  And the Spartans’ play on the court has shown the distractions as they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. 

Indiana is ever-improving in the first season under Archie Miller.  The Hoosiers have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have played very well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only loss came to Purdue by 7 as 8.5-point home underdogs, and the Boilermakers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have proven they can play with a team of Michigan State’s caliber. 

Indiana is 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Michigan State.  The Hoosiers are 30-16 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Roll with Indiana Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford PK 

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  They are 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue lacking the respect they deserve as a pick ‘em at home tonight against Oregon.  And two of those losses were a 2-point home loss to Arizona and a 5-point road loss at USC, two of the best teams in the Pac-12. 

Oregon is certainly in the midst of a down year, which was expected after all they lost last season from their Final Four team.  Oregon’s only three road wins this year have come against Fresno, Cal and Arizona State.  I think they’ll be in over their heads here against the Cardinal. 

Stanford is 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Oregon.  The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (winning 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  It is actually winning these games by 9.5 points per game on average.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois State -4.5 

Illinois State comes in off back-to-back impressive performances.  The Redbirds beat Valparaiso 76-65 as 4-point home favorites and upset Missouri State 76-60 as 6.5-point road underdogs.  They are hitting their stride right now and should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over Valparaiso. 

Illinois State is 5-1 in its last six home games with its only loss coming to the best team in the MVC in Loyola-Chicago.  The last two home games were very impressive with that 11-point win over Valparaiso and a 13-point win over Bradley, which is arguably the second-best team in the conference. 

Evansville simply cannot bet trusted on the road.  The Purple Aces are 2-6 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 12.0 points per game.  They were already playing without Duane Gibson (6.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg) due to injury, and now they’ve lost point guard Dru Smith (13.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 47.7% 3-pointers) indefinitely due to a foot injury.  He is their most important player and they won’t be nearly as good without him moving forward. 

Illinois State owns Evansville.  The Redbirds already beat the Purple Aces 72-66 on the road in their first meeting this season back in December.  They are now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, winning all five by 6 points or more, including four by double-digits.  Illinois State is also 16-4 SU & in its last 20 home meetings with Evansville.  Bet Illinois State Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa -3.5 

Northern Iowa will be out for revenge from a 67-69 road loss at Indiana State on January 10th in their first meeting this season.  The Sycamores got a tip in just before the buzzer to beat the Panthers in excruciating fashion. 

Now Northern Iowa gets Indiana State at home this time around.  The Panthers are 9-3 at home this season, winning by 12.7 points per game on average.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games, beating Illinois State by 11 as 6.5-point favorites, Drake by 14 as 6.5-point favorites and Valparaiso by 5 as 4-point favorites. 

Indiana State is not playing well at all right now.  The Sycamores are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Indiana State certainly has not fared well outside of its home arena.  The Sycamores are 3-9 in all road games this season. 

Indiana State is 1-8 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the past three seasons, losing by an average of 10.6 points per game in this spot.  The Sycamores are 16-36-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Panthers are 20-7-4 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -7.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers opened 15-1 and looked like one of the best teams in the country.  But they have since gone 1-5 in their last six games overall, losing four times by 7 points or less.  Now they are back to being undervalued, and they are certainly more motivated for a win today than at any other point this season. 

The Kansas State Wildcats lost point guard Kamau Stokes (13.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) in early January and he has missed the past seven games and is out for the season.  They actually played well for a while in his absence, but I think it will start to catch up with them moving forward.  That started to show last time out with a 56-70 home loss to Kansas.  Off a loss to their biggest rivals, it will be hard for the Wildcats to avoid a hangover here. 

West Virginia has owned Kansas State, going 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mountaineers already won 77-69 as 1.5-point road favorites at Kansas State on January 1st in their first meeting this season.  They should have no problem winning by 8-plus points in the rematch at home this time around.  WVU Is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with K-State, winning by 19, 15, 4 and 10 points, or by an average of 12 points per game. 

Kansas State is 2-8 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  Bob Huggins is 31-15 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Mountaineers are 10-2 at home this season and winning by 21.7 points per game.  WVU is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/TCU ESPNU Saturday No-Brainer on TCU -3 

The TCU Horned Frogs need to get going if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have done just that by beating West Virginia 82-73 at home and Oklahoma State 79-66 on the road in two of their last three games.  I think we are getting them at a cheap price at home here Saturday against Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders have been overvalued for a few weeks now.  They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They were fortunate to escape with a 73-71 home victory over Texas in overtime last time out.  In fact, each of their last four wins have come by 7 points or less and by a combined 15 points.  They are very close to being 0-7 in their last seven games overall. 

TCU is 11-2 at home this season and winning by 14.7 points per game.  Texas Tech is 1-3 on the road in Big 12 play, losing by 10 at Oklahoma, by 9 at Texas and by 18 at Iowa State. 

The Red Raiders are 0-6 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the past two seasons.  Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games off a close win by 3 points or less in Big 12 play.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 games.  The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big 12 games.  Roll with TCU Saturday. 

15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -3.5 

The Stanford Cardinal come in undervalued tonight because they are riding a 3-game losing streak.  But they were an underdog in all three games against a brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Arizona, by 5 at USC and by 16 at UCLA. 

This recent skid has everyone forgetting that Stanford put together a 5-game winning streak in Pac-12 play prior to the losing streak.  They won four of those five games outright as underdogs.  The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and easily the most underrated team in the Pac-12. 

Oregon State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight despite going just 1-4 in its last five games overall.  The Beavers are just 3-5 in Pac-12 play.  They don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this game close against a highly motivated Stanford squad tonight. 

Stanford is 17-2 straight up in its last 19 home meetings with Oregon State.  The Cardinal are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  Stanford is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Roll with Stanford Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -1.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the best teams in Conference USA this season.  They are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in conference action.  They have been grossly undervalued ever since head coach Dan D’Antoni took over a few years back. 

UTSA is just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in conference play this season.  The Roadrunners are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes home losses to the likes of FIU and FAU, two teams that are much worse than Marshall. 

The Thundering Herd have crushed the Roadrunners in their last two meetings.  Marshall won 109-91 on the road in 2016 and 92-71 at home in 2017.  I see another blowout win coming for the Thundering Herd in their lone meeting this season. 

Marshall is 8-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 17-5 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons.  Marshall is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Roadrunners are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Take Marshall Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Maryland +15 

This line is simply out of hand tonight because Purdue is the 3rd-ranked team in the country and has won a school-record 17 straight games coming in.  No question Purdue is the best team in the Big Ten, but it cannot be 15-point favorites against a solid Maryland squad tonight. 

That’s especially the case with Maryland being out for revenge from a 75-80 home loss to Purdue as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 15-point underdogs in the rematch, a massive 11.5-point adjustment.  There is a ton of value with the Terrapins tonight. 

Purdue is 3-2 against Maryland in all meetings since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2015.  But all three wins for the Boilermakers came by 5 points or less and by a combined 10 points overall.  Maryland has gotten healthy as the season has gone on and will be a tough out for any Big Ten team moving forward. 

The Terrapins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays against home favorite of 10 points or more (Purdue) - after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after five straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers are 94-45 (67.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Maryland Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech +1 

Off four straight losses, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are grossly undervalued right now.  But they were underdogs in all four games with home losses to Virginia and Clemson, and road losses at UNC and Florida State.  They finally get a break in their schedule here with a winnable home game against Syracuse. 

This is far from one of Jim Boeheim’s best Syracuse teams.  The Orange come in overvalued following three straight victories, but two were against Pittsburgh and the other was at home against Boston College.  And they didn’t cover either game against Pitt. 

Syracuse has only played five true road games all season.  The Orange are just 2-3 in them with their two wins coming over Georgetown by 7 and Pitt by 5.  Georgetown is one of the worst teams in the Big East, while Pitt is the worst team in the ACC. 

Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Syracuse despite being underdogs each time.  And the only loss was a 1-point loss as 4-point dogs.  The Orange are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a win. 

Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS after a game where it made 78% or better from the free throw line over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Yellow Jackets.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +9.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are in the ultimate letdown spot today.  They just ended a 17-game road losing streak at Duke with their first win since 1995 with a 65-63 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday.  It’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following such a monumental victory. 

Now the Cavaliers have to go up against an underrated Louisville team that will fight them for 40 minutes.  The Cardinals are 16-5 this season despite all the distractions with Rick Pitino.  They have played their best basketball of the season in conference play. 

Louisville is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Its only losses came by 5 at Clemson as 6-point underdogs and by 3 at Miami in overtime as 5-point dogs.  The Cardinals have upset both Florida State and Notre Dame on the road, while also crushing Virginia Tech, Pitt, Boston College and Wake Forest at home during this stretch. 

The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight ACC games.  Louisville is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  I think that win over Duke all but sealed the ACC title for Virginia as well, making it even more of a letdown spot.  Roll with Louisville Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -5.5 

Texas A&M opened 11-1 this season when they were healthy.  But then the Aggies were hit hard by injuries and proceeded to go 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Now the Aggies are fully healthy again and should get back to being that 11-1 team sooner rather than later. 

Texas A&M is coming off back-to-back road losses as LSU and Kansas, which is no big deal.  Now the Aggies return home tonight where they are 9-2 on the season.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the overrated Arkansas Razorbacks tonight. 

Arkansas comes in overvalued off three straight wins by a combined 8 points with two of those coming at home.  But Arkansas is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.4 points per game.  I think they get blown out of the building tonight. 

The Razorbacks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are 4-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -6 

The Oklahoma Sooners are back to being undervalued finally after going 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost three of their last four straight up, but all three were on the road to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Alabama. 

Now Oklahoma returns home where it is a perfect 10-0 on the season, scoring 97.5 points per game and outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game.  The Sooners have recent home wins over Northwestern by 26, Oklahoma State by 20, Texas Tech by 10, TCU by 5 and Kansas by 5. 

Now the Sooners should be able to blow out a struggling Baylor squad that is just 12-9 overall and 2-6 in Big 12 play.  This is one of the worst teams Baylor has had in quite some time.  The Bears are 2-7 in their last nine games overall with both of their wins coming at home.  Baylor is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing by an average of 12.4 points per game. 

Oklahoma is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games after having lost two of its last three games.  The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Sooners are 25-11-2 ATS in their last 38 meetings with Baylor.  Take Oklahoma Tuesday. 

15* Notre Dame/Duke ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Duke -14.5 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish caught a tough break when their best player Bonzi Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) was lost for the season on January 9th with a foot injury.  Then they were dealt another big blow when their second-best player Matt Farrell (15.7 ppg, 5.3 apg) suffered an ankle injury. 

Colson has missed the past seven games and Farrell has missed four games recently and both remain out.  Not to mention, they are playing without top 6th man D.J. Harvey (5.8 ppg), who has missed the past two games.  It’s no surprise that the Fighting Irish have struggled, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Now Notre Dame will be up against a motivated Duke team that is coming off a rare home loss to Virginia over the weekend.  Look for the Blue Devils to pour it on the Fighting Irish in this one.  Notre Dame simply won’t have the offensive punch without Colson, Farrell and Harvey to keep up with a Duke team that is scoring 90.3 points per game this season. 

Duke is 145-112 ATS in its last 257 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Blue Devils are 56-29 ATS in their last 85 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points.  Duke is 176-134 ATS in its last 310 games following an ATS loss, including 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Blue Devils are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Roll with Duke Monday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

The Indiana Hoosiers are improving rapidly in head coach Archie Miller’s first season in Bloomington.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Hoosiers have been very impressive at home of late.  Indeed, the Hoosiers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  They now have the confidence to hang with a team of Purdue’s caliber. 

I think the Boilermakers come in overvalued due to their No. 3 national ranking.  They are starting to have to lay some big numbers, and it’s going to make it difficult for them to cover.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much. 

Indiana is 29-16 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% after 15-plus games.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

20* Villanova/Marquette FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Marquette +8 

Marquette only lost 90-100 at Villanova as 16-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 6th.  Now the Golden Eagles are catching 8 points at home in the rematch and will be out for revenge today. 

We saw last year the Golden Eagles pull off their biggest win of the season at home over Villanova.  They beat the Wildcats 74-72 as 5-point home underdogs.  They have a very good home-court advantage as they are 9-3 on their home floor this year. 

Villanova being the No. 1 ranked team in the country puts a huge target on their backs.  It also has them overvalued because the betting public wants to back them, especially since they have covered three in a row coming in. 

Villanova is 3-11 ATS after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Marquette Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia Tech +4 

It’s mind-blowing that the Fighting Irish are actually favored here Saturday against Virginia Tech.  They Fighting Irish are without their two best players in Bonzie Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Matt Farrell (15.7 ppg, 5.3 apg).  They are also missing D.J. Harvey (5.8 ppg). 

All these injuries have really put the Fighting Irish behind the eight ball.  They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  I really don’t understand how they can even be favored here, especially against a team that caliber of Virginia Tech. 

The Hokies come in undervalued after losing two of their last three.  But they righted the ship with an impressive 80-69 upset victory over UNC last time out.  And now they realize they need to win games like this against Notre Dame if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after two straight games where it attempted 12 or fewer free throws.  The Hokies are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS win.  The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Buzz Williams is 9-1 ATS off two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-point shots as the coach of the Hokies.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Kentucky/West Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky +10 

When is the last time you remember Kentucky being a double-digit underdog under John Calipari?  I can’t recall it, and I certainly am going to take advantage today and back the Wildcats in this big underdog role against the WVU Mountaineers. 

I realize this isn’t one of Calipari’s best teams, but the Wildcats are still 15-5 and improving every day.  That’s the best part about his teams is that they improve as much as anyone in the country over the course of the season with all of the freshmen he plays.  Kentucky does have five losses this year, but four have come by 8 points or fewer. 

It’s not like West Virginia is playing well enough right now to warrant being a double-digit favorite, either.  The Mountaineers are 1-3 in their last four games overall.  They lost at Texas Tech and TCU, while also getting upset by Kansas at home.  I think they will struggle with athletes the caliber of Kentucky’s here. 

The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games vs. SEC opponents.  West Virginia is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Saturday. 

20* Virginia/Duke CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -4 

The ACC title is likely on the line when the Virginia Cavaliers (19-1, 8-0) visit the Duke Blue Devils (18-2, 6-2) at Cameron Indoor Stadium Saturday.  Being two games behind the Cavaliers already, the Blue Devils are looking at this as a must-win.  And given their past successes at home against Virginia, I have no doubt they get the win and cover tonight. 

The Blue Devils are 17-0 in their last 17 home meetings with the Cavaliers having not lost since 1995.  Duke hasn’t lost at Cameron Indoor in more than a full calendar year.  The Blue Devils are 10-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 29.4 points per game. 

Virginia has only played five true road games this season.  Their four wins came against VCU, VA Tech, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.  They were favored in all four games.  In their toughest road game, they lost 61-68 at West Virginia as 4.5-point underdogs.  Now this will be their stiffest road test yet. 

Plays against road teams as an underdog or PK (Virginia) - an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer points per game against an average defensive team (67-74 ppg) after allowing 50 points or less are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Duke Saturday. 

20* Big 12/SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +8 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Georgia and ‘sell high’ on Kansas State as this spread has simply got out of hand here Saturday based on recent results.  We’ll gladly take advantage and back the Bulldogs as 8-point road underdogs here to the Wildcats. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on Kansas State, which comes in 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That recent success has the Wildcats way overvalued right now.  And this is a huge lookahead spot for Kansas State, which hosts Kansas on Monday.  Their only loss during this stretch came 72-73 at Kansas, so they will be looking ahead at getting revenge. 

Conversely, we’ll ‘buy low’ on Georgia, which is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Bulldogs will be extra motivated for a win here Saturday and with the way they play defense, they are more than capable of pulling off this upset and hanging with the Wildcats. 

Georgia is 15-6 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two years.  Georgia is 17-5 ATS in road games when playing a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kansas State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -13.5 

It’s safe to say the Wichita State Shockers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset losses to SMU at home and Houston on the road.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season now at home against UCF. 

The UCF Knights are extremely vulnerable moving forward.  They just lost arguably their most important player in center Tacko Fall (11.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg) to a season-ending shoulder injury last time out.  A.J. Davis (10.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg) is nursing an ankle injury as well.  The Knights are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 9 at UConn, by 11 at home to Cincinnati and barely escaping with a 71-69 victory as 9.5-point favorites over lowly South Florida. 

Wichita State is 34-17 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 6-0 ATS versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years.  Take Wichita State Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +13.5 

I really like the situation for the Temple Owls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 53-55 home loss to Cincinnati as 7.5-point underdogs on January 4th.  I backed the Owls with success in that game, and I’m backing them again tonight as they are catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

No team has played Cincinnati tougher than Temple in recent years.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Owls are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Cincinnati. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Temple) - revenging a close loss vs. opponent by 3 points or less against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Wednesday. 

20* Louisville/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami -4 

The Miami Hurricanes come in motivated for a victory after losing three of their last five to drop to 14-4 on the season.  But they are 6-1 at home this season and winning by 18.8 points per game.  Their only home loss came to Duke when they blew a double-digit second half lead. 

I think Louisville comes into this game getting too much respect from oddsmakers for going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Now the Cardinals are only catching 4 points on the road to a team that is clearly better than them in Miami, and I have no doubt that will show on the court tonight. 

Louisville is 9-19 ATS in road games off a win over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in road games versus teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  Jim Larranaga is 17-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Miami.  Larranaga is 11-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more as the coach of the Hurricanes.  Take Miami Wednesday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -1 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  And getting them as only 1-point home favorites against the Missouri State Bears is a gift from oddsmakers here tonight. 

Bradley is a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-0 ATS at home this season.  The Braves are outscoring their opponents by 15.8 points per game at home this year. 

Missouri State is 1-4 straight up in its last five true road games.  It has lost at Drake, Evansville, Illinois State and Oral Roberts, four teams that aren’t as good as this Bradley squad. 

The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Braves are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Bradley Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia -1.5 

The Georgia Bulldogs come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three of their last four with three of those four on the road.  Now they return home tonight and will be looking to get back in the win column.  Georgia is 8-1 at home this season. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Arkansas is just 2-4 SU in its last six games with its two victories coming by a combined 6 points at home over Missouri and Ole Miss.  Three of the four losses came by double-digits with a 15-point loss at Florida, a 21-point home loss to LSU and an 11-point road loss at Auburn. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Razorbacks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight SEC games.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Georgia is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.  Arkansas is 3-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Georgia Tuesday. 

15* UNC/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +5 

It’s safe to say the Virginia Tech Hokies come into this game with the UNC Tar Heels highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight to Louisville and FSU and four of their last six games overall.  They need a signature win at home here tonight to stem the tide. 

The Tar Heels come in a bit overvalued following four straight victories.  But the four came against Boston College, an injury-ravaged Notre Dame, Clemson and Georgia Tech with three of the four at home.  But the Tar Heels have only covered one of their last seven games overall. 

Virginia Tech is 10-2 at home this season, winning by an average of nearly 20 points per game.  The Hokies are scoring 88.2 points per game and shooting a ridiculous 54.2% from the floor at home.  They are scoring 85.6 points per game and shooting 52.1% on the season, so this team is loaded offensively. 

The Hokies are 12-3 ATS as a home underdog or PK over the last three seasons.  Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Hokies are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with UNC.  Roll with Virginia Tech Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa PK 

The Northern Iowa Panthers got off to a tough start in Missouri Valley play.  They opened 0-5 with four of their losses coming by 7 points or less.  But they have turned the corner here of late, winning and covering back-to-back games against Drake and Valparaiso. 

Now Northern Iowa will be out for revenge for one of those close losses, a 53-56 home loss to Southern Illinois.  I look for the Panthers to get their revenge today and beat the Salukis for the 5th time in the last 6 meetings. 

Southern Illinois is not playing well at all right now.  The Salukis are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins both came at home by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Evansville and a 4-point win over Illinois State. 

Northern Iowa is 13-4 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last three seasons.  Southern Illinois is 1-7 ATS after giving up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds in two straight games this season.  The Salukis are 2-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +9.5 

St. Mary’s is in a massive letdown spot here Saturday.  The Gaels are coming off an upset 74-71 win at Gonzaga as 7.5-point underdogs.  They exorcised some demons from losing all three meetings with the Zags last year. 

Now they’re up against a massively underrated Pacific team that will be upset-minded.  Pacific has gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, including an upset win over BYU.  The only loss came at St. Mary’s 56-74 on January 4th, so they will also be in revenge mode here tonight. 

St. Mary’s is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 games off three consecutive road games.  Pacific is 7-0 ATS off a conference game this season.  The Gaels are 0-4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Pacific Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

Providence will be out for revenge from a 64-83 road loss at Creighton back on December 31st.  But Providence was way banged up for that game, and now they are almost fully healthy.  Look for them to get that revenge at home this time around. 

Creighton is just 1-3 in its last four true road games.  Providence is 9-2 at home this season, recently beating the likes of Butler by 10 and Xavier by 9. 

Providence is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scores 75 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Providence Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2 

Seton Hall comes in motivated for a victory after losing two of its last three games.  Both were on the road, and now the Pirates are at home today for a big matchup with Xavier. 

Seton Hall is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, winning by 16.4 points per game on average.  Xavier is 0-2 in its last two true road games, losing at Providence by 9 and Villanova by 24. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Seton Hall is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Seton Hall Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -1.5 

We are getting a massive discount on the Virginia Tech Hokies at home here Saturday.  They basically just have to win the game to cover, and I think they will do just that against Florida State. 

Virginia Tech is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Virginia.  Florida State’s true colors have shown in ACC play as the Seminoles are just 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS so far with their only two wins coming at home over UNC by 1 and Syracuse in OT. 

The Seminoles are 0-3 in their last three true road games.  FSU is 1-8 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -7 

It’s safe to say the Utah Utes will be highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight.  They got off to a 10-3 start this season but have lost four straight since.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a victory here at home against Washington tonight. 

It’s easy to see why they have lost four in a row.  They had to play arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Arizona State at home, while also losing on the road to the next two best teams in the conference in UCLA and USC.  So their losing streak can be attributed to a brutal schedule as they have been an underdog in all four games. 

Now in comes one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington tonight.  This is a Washington team that is 3-2 in conference play, but two of the wins came against two of the worst teams in Washington State and California.  They just lost by 9 at home to Stanford and were beaten by 21 at UCLA.  I don’t expect them to be able to hang with the motivated Utes tonight. 

Utah has owned Washington, going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Utes have won all seven meetings by 5 points or more.  They won their two meetings last season by 22 and 24 points.  They have each of their last four home meetings with Washington by an average of 15.5 points per game. 

Utah is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 following four or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a loss.  The Utes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Huskies are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with Utah Thursday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +8 

Over the past two seasons, Josh Pastner and Georgia Tech have pulled some huge upsets on a regular basis at home.  They Their most recent this season have been wins over Miami and Georgia Tech in their last two ACC home games.  They are more than capable of hanging with Virginia tonight. 

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The key to their resurgence has been leading scorer Josh Okogie (18.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg), who missed eight games earlier this season.  Second-leading scorer Tadric Jackson (13.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg) also missed three games earlier.  But now the Yellow Jackets are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. 

Virginia has won eight in a row coming in, which has them overvalued.  But they have benefited from playing seven of their last eight games at home with their only road win coming at Virginia Tech.  They lost their previous road game at West Virginia and have played just three true road games all season, also winning at VCU by 9. 

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Georgia Tech is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 ACC games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Thursday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton -4 

Creighton doesn’t have to wait long to get revenge from an 84-90 road loss at Seton Hall on December 28th in their Big East opener.  The Bluejays blew a 53-42 halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Look for them to have their revenge against the Pirates at home this time around. 

Creighton has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bluejays are 11-0 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 93.5 points per game and shooting 54.2% at home this year. 

Seton Hall has only played four true road games this season and has gone 2-2 straight up.  The Pirates have lost two of their last three road games in ugly fashion.  They lost 64-84 as 1-point favorites at Marquette and 65-71 as 8.5-point favorites at Rutgers.  This will be their toughest challenge yet on the road this season. 

Creighton is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off three or more consecutive unders.  The Bluejays are 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Creighton is 26-13 ATS in its last 39 home games when revenging a same season loss.  The Bluejays are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss.  Bet Creighton Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +8 

The Valparaiso Crusaders don’t have to wait long to avenge their 50-67 home loss to Missouri State back on December 31st.  They were banged up back then and now they are much healthier.  And they’re catching 8 points on the road to the Bears this time around. 

Missouri State is 4-2 in conference play this season, but three of the four wins came by 7 points or less.  They aren’t blowing teams out, and that 17-point win over Valpo earlier was the aberration.  I think this rematch goes right down to the wire tonight.  The Crusaders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. 

Valparaiso is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games when revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points. Missouri State is 9-20 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Missouri State is 21-43 ATS in its last 64 games off a conference home win.  Roll with Valparaiso Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +7.5 

Head coach Mike Dunleavy has injected life into this Tulane Green Wave basketball program.  This is one of the most improved teams in the country at 11-6 on the season.  I like the value we are getting with the Green Wave catching 7.5 points at home to Houston. 

Houston is also an improved team at 14-3 under Kelvin Sampson.  But I think this is a tough spot for the Cougars, who have only had two days to prepare for Tulane.  And they have a rematch coming up with Wichita State on Saturday, and I can’t help but think they will be looking ahead to that huge matchup. 

Tulane comes in undervalued off back-to-back losses at Memphis and at home to UConn.  But just before those two losses, they upset SMU 73-70 as 8.5-point home dogs and Temple 85-75 as 10-point road dogs.   

The Green Wave are 8-2 at home this season.  The Cougars are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Green Wave are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Houston is 0-10 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  Bet Tulane Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -6 

The Florida Gators are coming off an upset road loss at Ole Miss last time out.  That ended a six-game winning streak.  Look for the Gators to come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

This Arkansas team is not playing well at all right now and is extremely vulnerable.  The Razorbacks have lost three of their last four games coming in with their only win coming by 2 points at home against Missouri.  They lost by 21 at home to LSU the game before.  The Razorbacks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Florida is 11-0 straight up in all home meetings with Arkansas dating back to 1997.  Arkansas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.  Florida is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  The Razorbacks are 1-7 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in its last six SEC games.  Take Florida Wednesday. 

15* Clemson/UNC ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Clemson +7.5 

To say the Clemson Tigers will be motivated for a victory tonight against the UNC Tar Heels would be a massive understatement.  One of the most shocking streaks in college basketball history is on the line tonight.  The Tar Heels are 58-0 against Clemson in Chapel Hill all-time, which marks the longest home winning streak against any opponent in NCAA history. 

But this is the first time in a long time that Clemson may actually have the better team.  The Tigers are 15-2 this season and have been underrated for much of the year, going 9-5 ATS in their lined games.  Even Roy Williams said this is the best team that Brad Brownell has probably ever had at Clemson, and I agree. 

UNC has been extremely vulnerable this season.  The Tar Heels have recent road losses to Florida State and Virginia, and they were upset by Wofford at home in late December.  They only beat Notre Dame 69-68 on the road last time out, a Fighting Irish team that was paying without their two best players.  They also have a recent narrow 73-69 home win as 14-point favorites over Wake Forest. 

Clemson is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  UNC is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six vs. ACC opponents.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +3.5 

Florida State is coming off a 101-90 (OT) victory at home over Syracuse on Saturday.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and won’t have much left in the tank.  Making matters worse for them is that their leading scorer in Terrance Mann (15.1 ppg) is doubtful to play tonight with a concussion. 

Boston College has been one of the more underrated teams in the country this season at 12-6 on the year.  They have been especially tough at home, going 10-1 while beating Duke as a 15-point underdogs.  The Eagles’ only home loss came by a final of 70-74 as 5.5-point underdogs to Clemson. 

Florida State is 2-10 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boston College Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +10 

The Indiana State Sycamores are simply catching too many points today against the Missouri State Bears.  They have opened 3-2 in MVC play with their only losses coming by 3 points at Illinois State and by 3 points at home to Drake. 

Missouri State is also 3-2 in MVC play, losing back-to-back games to Illinois State and Evansville.  In their two home MVC games they have only won by 5 and 7 points.  So it’s not like they are blowing teams out. 

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 9 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  Two of those games went to overtime. 

The underdog is 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Missouri State is 9-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Paul Lusk is 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more as the coach of Missouri State.  Bet Indiana State Sunday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -2 

This is a very tough spot for Texas.  The Longhorns just found out their best player Andrew Jones has Leukemia before the TCU game on Wednesday.  They laid it all on the line for him and came away with a miraculous 99-98 victory in double-overtime. 

TCU missed a wide open layup in the second OT as time expired, making you wonder if the power’s that be made sure that Texas won that game.  Off such an emotional win, and still without their best player in Jones who averages 13.5 points, shoots 52.8% from the field and 47.5% from 3-point range, I expect a big mental letdown tonight against Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys will be motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in Big 12 play.  Two of those losses were on the road to Oklahoma and Kansas State.  The Cowboys are 9-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in West Virginia and Wichita State. 

The home team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -3.5 

Xavier will be playing with a chip on its shoulder today after back-to-back road losses to Providence and Villanova to fall to 15-3 on the season.  The Musketeers also want revenge from getting knocked out of the Big East Tournament by Creighton last year, 75-72. 

Xavier is 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  That’s why I have no doubt they’ll get right back on the winning track at home here Saturday as mere 3.5-point home favorites over Creighton. 

The Bluejays have only had to play four true road games this season.  They lost at Gonzaga by 17 and Seton Hall by 6 against the two best teams they played away from home, and two teams similar to Xavier talent-wise.  They beat Northwestern and Georgetown. 

Xavier is 51-28 ATS in its last 79 January home games.  The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher.  Xavier is 6-0 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who average 4-plus boards more than their opponents this season.  The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Take Xavier Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -4 

The Georgia Bulldogs have been grossly undervalued this season, especially when playing at home.  After blowing a halftime lead and losing at Missouri last time out, I expect the Bulldogs to be playing motivated here at home today. 

And Georgia will be looking to stay unbeaten at home this season.  The Bulldogs are 8-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by an averages of 13.9 points per game.  They have blowout wins over Georgia Tech (80-59), Temple (84-66), Ole Miss (71-60) and Alabama (65-46) in their last four home games, respectively. 

South Carolina is clearly in a rebuilding year under Frank Martin after last year’s surprise Final Four run.  The Gamecocks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The competition has gotten stiffer, and they have lost four of their last six by 16 to Clemson, by 5 to Ole Miss, by 11 to Missouri and by 14 to Alabama. 

These teams have five common opponents already this season.  Georgia is 3-2 against them and winning by 5.2 points per game, while South Carolina is 1-4 against them and losing by 8.0 points per game.  The Bulldogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss.  The Gamecocks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 SEC games.  South Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a a winning record.  The Gamecocks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Take Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgetown +12.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers in their first season under Patrick Ewing.  But boy is he doing a fine job with them this season.  They are off to a 12-4 start with only one of their four losses coming by double-digits. 

Seton Hall is a very good team at 14-3 this season, but the Pirates have been fortunate in close games this year.  Each of their last four wins have come by 12 points or less against Manhattan, Creighton, St. John’s and Butler despite playing three of those four at home. 

Georgetown has gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in all road games this season.  It has road wins over Richmond, DePaul and St. John’s with upsets as underdogs in the latter two.  Its only road loss came by a final of 65-74 at Marquette, the same Marquette team that Seton Hall just lost 64-84 to last time out. 

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  The Hoyas are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Georgetown Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -12 

The Kansas State Wildcats just recently lost their floor general in PG Kamau Stokes to an injury.  Stokes averages 13.4 points and 4.6 assists per game.  They were able to overcome his loss to beat Oklahoma State 86-82 at home in their first game without him.  Beating Kansas on the road will be a monumental challenge without him. 

I think this is one of the rare times you will get Kansas at a cheap price.  That’s because the Jayhawks have actually lost at home twice already this season, which is unheard of in the Bill Self era.  But the Jayhawks are playing well, going 6-1 in their last seven games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games. 

Kansas is 19-1 SU & 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Kansas State.  It still has arguably the best home-court advantage in the country.  And I don’t expect the Wildcats to handle the environment very well, especially now that they are without their starting point guard. 

Kansas State is 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Kansas State is 11-29-2 ATS in the last 42 meetings, including 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Kansas.  Roll with Kansas Saturday. 

15* Marquette/Butler Big East No-Brainer on Butler -4.5 

Off three consecutive losses, it’s safe to say the Butler Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Marquette Golden Eagles.  I expect a big effort from them to get the win and cover here and to get back on track. 

It’s easy to see why Butler has lost three in a row.  They were underdogs on the road to both Xavier and Creighton, and they only lost by 3 at home to Seton Hall after blowing a double-digit lead.  The game before this skid, they beat Villanova 101-93 at home.  The Bulldogs are now 9-1 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the country. 

Butler has really had Marquette’s number in recent meetings.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Butler is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall.  Marquette has played a much softer schedule than Butler and will be taking a big step up in class here tonight. 

Butler is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Butler.  Roll with Butler Friday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -4.5 

Chris Holtmann has this Ohio State Buckeyes team on the rise in his first season.  He did big things at Butler and now he has carried over that success to Columbus.  The Buckeyes are 13-4 on the season, including 10-1 at home and winning by 16.8 points per game. 

Ohio State has gone 8-1 in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to UNC on a neutral court. They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road, Michigan by 9 at home, Iowa by 11 on the road and Michigan State by 16 at home during this stretch.  And you can bet Ohio State will be out for revenge following four straight losses to Maryland over the past two seasons. 

That’s the same Michigan State team that Maryland just lost by 30 to on the road a week ago today.  This Maryland team isn’t as good as the ones in recent years that made the NCAA Tournament.  The Terrapins are just 1-2 in true road games this season with their only win coming 92-91 against an Illinois team that remains winless in Big Ten play. 

Ohio State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games off three straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Buckeyes are 11-2 ATS in home games when playing against a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games over the last three seasons.  Ohio State is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 3-plus fouls per game less than their opponents over the last three years.  Roll with Ohio State Thursday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Evansville +2.5 

The Evansville Purple Aces have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game.  They are coming off a dominant 68-44 home win over Bradley as only 1-point favorites. 

Missouri State is a quality team this season, but it should not be favored on the road here.  The Bears have lost two of their last three road games despite being favorites in each.  They lost 66-73 as 12.5-point favorites at Oral Roberts, and 68-72 as 4-point road favorites at Illinois State. 

Evansville has owned Missouri State in recent meetings, going 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings.  The Purple Aces are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Bears, winning by 8, 10, 19 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Purple Aces are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Evansville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Purple Aces are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Evansville is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Missouri State is 9-18 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -1 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are way overvalued right now due to their 5-game winning streak.  They were able to survive their first few games without Bonzie Colson, and even their last game against Syracuse without Matt Farrell.  But with their two best players out, this team is going to struggle moving forward, especially tonight. 

Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Farrell (15.9 ppg, 5.1 apg) are simply irreplaceable on this team.  Colson has missed the past two games while Farrell missed one.  Both will be out tonight and really hamper Notre Dame’s chances of being successful.  In their first game without both, they managed just 51 points against Syracuse. 

Georgia Tech is really coming on strong of late.  The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  The loss was a 59-68 setback at Notre Dame as 14-point dogs, which places the Yellow Jackets in revenge mode.  They also upset Miami 64-54 as 5-point home dogs and easily covered as 9-point favorites in a 74-60 home win over Yale. 

Georgia Tech is 14-3 ATS in January games over the last three seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after committing 11 or fewer turnovers in three straight games.  Georgia Tech is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Yellow Jackets are 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +10.5

The Auburn Tigers are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over ranked teams in Tennessee and Arkansas for the first time since 2007.  They have now jumped into the Top 25 for the first time in 15 years.  It’s safe to say they will relax after accomplishing that feat. 

Ole Miss will give them a run for their money tonight.  The Rebels have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their only loss coming on the road at Georgia.  They have beaten both South Carolina and Mississippi State during this run, while winning their other two games by 23 and 22 points. 

Ole Miss simply owns Auburn, going a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  They won both meetings last season and have four starters back from that squad under Andy Kennedy this season. 

Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons.  Auburn is 0-6 ATS after scoring three of its last four against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC games.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -1.5 

Nebraska continues to get no love from oddsmakers this season.  The Huskers have opened 11-6 this year, and head coach Tim Miles is doing a tremendous job.  Their recent results have me believing they should be favored by more than 1.5 points at home against Wisconsin tonight. 

The Huskers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They beat Minnesota 78-68 as 9-point home dogs, only lost by 10 at Creighton as 12-point dogs, only lost by 1 at home to Kansas as 12-point dogs, beat UTSA by 10 as 9.5-point favorites, won outright at Northwestern by 15 as 7.5-point dogs, and gave Purdue a run in a 12-point road loss as 21-point dogs. 

Wisconsin has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  The Badgers are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in all road games this season.  They are just 9-8 on the year as this is one of the worst Wisconsin teams in recent memory.  They have lost their last two true road games to Temple and Rutgers. 

Nebraska is 45-21 ATS in its last 66 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Huskers are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 home games as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Nebraska is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Huskers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* FSU/Miami ACC Sunday No-Brainer on Miami -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are in a really tough spot here.  They have opened ACC play having to play both Duke on the road and North Carolina at home.  Off a 1-point win over the Tar Heels, the Seminoles won’t have much left in the tank for the Hurricanes tonight. 

Miami comes in highly motivated off an upset road loss at Georgia Tech last time out.  The Hurricanes are still 12-2 on the season and have played nine road games and only five at home.  Miami is 5-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 26.6 points per game. 

Florida State is 2-9 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games versus teams who score 84 or more points per game.  The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  Roll with Miami Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marquette +16 

This line is inflated because Villanova is off a loss, and the betting public is quick to back them off that loss.  But I think the Wildcats have a lot of issues right now, especially inside, that will have them overvalued in Big East play all season. 

Marquette is too good of a team to be catching 16 points to Villanova.  They are 11-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Wichita State, Georgia and Xavier.  Not one of those losses came by 16-plus points. 

Marquette hasn’t lost any of its last four meetings with Villanova by more than 15 points.  In fact, the Golden Eagles upset the Wildcats 74-72 at home last year.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Marquette Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +10 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a bad spot today.  They are coming off a huge upset win at Kansas, which sets them up for a letdown spot.  And they’re being overvalued due to that Kansas win now as double-digit favorites here against Kansas State. 

Certainly the Red Raiders are improved this season, but they have mostly feasted on an easy schedule and cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves. 

The Wildcats are now pushovers.  They are 11-3 this season against a tougher schedule than Texas Tech has played.  They went on the road and beat Iowa State 91-75 in their conference opener before losing by 8 to a very good West Virginia team at home.  They are more than capable of hanging with the Red Raiders today.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse -6 

Notre Dame is without its two best players today in Bonzie Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Matt Farrell (15.9 ppg, 5.1 apg).  They won’t be nearly the team they were before without those two, and now they have to go on the road in a hostile environment against Syracuse. 

And the Orange certainly won’t be taking the Fighting Irish lightly.  They are coming off a road loss at Wake Forest and will be highly motivated for a win here at home.  They were last seen at home blowing out Virginia Tech 68-56, and they are 10-1 at home this season. 

Syracuse is 9-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Notre Dame is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 games off a win by 20 points or more against a conference opponent.  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3 

The Butler Bulldogs are certainly battle-tested coming into this game with Seton Hall tonight.  They beat Villanova 101-93 at home and lost 79-86 at Xavier in their last two games, while also winning in overtime at Georgetown to open conference play.  They’ll be ready for Seton Hall tonight. 

Conversely, Seton Hall has played four straight home games and has opened conference play with Narrow wins over Creighton (90-84) and St. John’s (75-70).  They certainly take a step up in class here and will be on the road for the first time since an ugly 65-71 loss at Rutgers as 8.5-point favorites. 

Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season, winning by 22.2 points per game on average.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last three seasons.  Butler is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Seton Hall.  Take Butler Saturday. 

15* Cincinnati/Temple ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Temple +7.5 

The Temple Owls are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following three consecutive losses coming in.  But the competition has been stiff with losses to Georgia, Houston and Tulane with two of those on the road.  And now they are battle-tested and ready to go against a ranked Cincinnati team tonight. 

Conversely, Cincinnati comes in overvalued off three straight blowout wins over weak competition in Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Cleveland State and Memphis.  The Bearcats have only played two true road games this year, and they lost at Xavier and won at UCLA.  This will be a tough test for them against a motivated Owls squad looking to avoid an 0-3 start in conference play. 

This has been a closely-contested series in recent meetings.  Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  And Temple is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati.  That’s significant considering the Owls returned four starters this season and are much better than they have shown up to this point. 

Cincinnati is 4-15 ATS in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Temple is 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last three years.  The Bearcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Roll with Temple Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +1 

After opening 0-3 in Big Ten play with losses to Penn State, Indiana and Michigan, it’s safe to say the Iowa Hawkeyes will be highly motivated for their first conference victory at home tonight.  This is a very important game for them since their next there games on the road, so they will be max motivated. 

Ohio State has not done well when stepping up in class this season, and the Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have losses to UNC, Clemson, Gonzaga and Butler with three of those losses coming by double-digits, so they have rarely been competitive against the better teams they have faced. 

The Hawkeyes are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Buckeyes.  They have won their last two home meetings with Ohio State by 13 and 9 points. 

The Buckeyes are 12-30-1 ATS in their last 43 road games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Ohio State is 0-7 ATS after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total set of 150 to 154.5 over the last two years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Take Iowa Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia Tech +4 

Buzz Williams has this Virginia Tech program on the rise.  He led them to a 22-11 record and the NCAA Tournament last season.  Now he has four starters back from that team and his best team yet in his fourth season. 

The Hokies are off to an 11-3 start this season with their three losses all coming on the road to Syracuse, Kentucky and Saint Louis.  But they are 9-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 28.8 points per game. 

And Virginia Tech has been able to upset Virginia at home each of the last two seasons.  The Hokies won 70-68 as 12.5-point home underdogs in 2016 and 80-78 as 5-point home dogs in 2017.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs and have their best team yet, so they should be able to pull the upset again here, especially with how well they play at home. 

Virginia is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Virginia Tech is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS as a home underdog or PK over the last three years.  Virginia Tech is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 home games overall.  The Hokies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC opponents.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Blacksburg.  Take Virginia Tech Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure -1.5 

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are absolutely loaded this season.  They returned four starters from last year including their killer backcourt of Matt Mobley and Jaylen Adams, who combined to average 39 points per game last season. 

It’s no surprise the Bonnies are off to an 11-2 start this season with wins over the likes of Maryland and Syracuse on the road thus far.  Adams is averaging 20.1 points and Mobley 18.3 points thus far to pick up right where they left off last year. 

Dayton was clearly going to be a rebuilding team this season.  They lost head coach Archie Miller to Indiana and lost four of their top five scores from last season.  It’s no wonder they are just 6-7 this season with losses to the likes of Hofstra, Old Dominion, Pennsylvania and Duquesne already.  Their six wins have come against Wagner, Georgia State, Tennessee Tech, Akron, Ohio and Ball State. 

St. Bonaventure is 10-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Bonnies are 9-0 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last three years.  Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bonnies.  Bet St. Bonaventure Wednesday. 

15* Florida/Texas A&M ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Florida +2.5 

The Texas A&M Aggies are a great team to fade opening SEC play.  I did just that when they were ranked 9th and traveled to Alabama.  I took Alabama +1 and the Crimson Tide delivered with a 79-57 blowout victory.  I’ll fade the Aggies again tonight for many of the same reasons. 

Texas A&M has a ton of injuries and suspensions right now.  They are missing leading scorer DJ Hogg (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) due to suspension and third-leading scorer Admon Gilder (12.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) due to a knee injury.  Fourth-leading scorer Duane Wilson (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg) is also doubtful with a knee injury.  It’s no wonder they were nearly upset by Northern Kentucky at home recently in a 6-point win and were blown out by Alabama. 

Florida has suffered several close losses this season that has it undervalued.  The Gators are only 9-4, but three losses came by 6 points or fewer, including a 3-point loss to Duke and a 2-point loss to Clemson.  This team has been through the gauntlet with one of the toughest schedules in the country, which will only benefit the Gators heading into conference play. 

Florida is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  The Gators are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  Texas A&M is 4-12 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Florida coach Mike White is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games in all games he has coached.  Take Florida Tuesday. 

20* Michigan/Iowa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa +3 

The Iowa Hawkeyes have really turned it around in the month of December.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Four of their five wins have come by 23 or more points, and the lone exception was an 80-73 victory as 3.5-point favorites over Colorado on a neutral. 

Michigan is having a solid season overall at 12-3.  But the Wolverines have lost two of their four true road games to Ohio State and North Carolina.  And I think they will be in over their heads here against an Iowa team that has owned them recently. 

Indeed, the Hawkeyes are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Michigan despite being an underdog in the last two.  They have won those five meetings by an average of 12.0 points per game to boot.  I think the one-sided nature of this series continues tonight as the improving Hawkeyes get the win and cover. 

Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and give up 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or fewer over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games.  The Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Throw in the 5-0 ATS run against Michigan, and we have a combined 27-0 system backing the Hawkeyes here tonight.  Bet Iowa Tuesday. 

20* Georgia/Kentucky SEC Sunday No-Brainer on Georgia +10 

The Kentucky Wildcats are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their 90-61 win over rival Louisville on Friday.  Well, Louisville isn’t the same team without Rick Pitino and is clearly down this season. 

That win has the betting public quickly forgetting that the Wildcats lost 75-83 to UCLA in their previous game.  I think the Wildcats came out inspired because of that loss.  But now they won’t have much left in the tank as they will be playing their 2nd game in 3 days here. 

Georgia, on the other hand, hasn’t played since an impressive 84-66 home victory as 2-point favorites over Temple on December 22nd.  This is the best Georgia team that Mark Fox has had in some time as the Bulldogs are off to a 9-2 start and have some NBA talent.  They are more than capable of going toe-to-toe with this Kentucky outfit that clearly isn’t as good as in years’ past. 

Georgia is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  Georgia is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better over the last two seasons.  Roll with Georgia Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +9 

The Providence Friars came into Big East play underrated due to their 2-9 ATS mark.  But they had a ton of injuries in non-conference play, and then almost everyone got healthy heading into their showdown with St. John’s on Thursday. 

I promptly backed the Friars in that game and they delivered with an emphatic 94-72 victory as 6-point road underdogs.  I’ll back them again here as they are simply catching too many points as 9-point road underdogs at Creighton. 

Providence is going to want some revenge from a 58-70 loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament last year.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won three of the last four meetings outright, including both meetings last year.  Providence won 68-66 as 7-point road dogs at Creighton last year and returned all five starters from that team. 

The Friars are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Providence is 10-2 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 16-3 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Providence is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big East opponents.  The Friars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Bluejays are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Providence Sunday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -2 

The Marshall Thundering Herd have been one of the most underrated teams in the country since Dan D’Antoni took over a few years ago.  They are off to a 10-4 start this season, and they are 27-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. 

Marshall is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game on average.  Now they face a LA Tech team that is 0-3 in true road games this season.  I think we are getting quite the discount here with Marshall as only a 2-point home favorite. 

LA Tech is 2-10 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons.  Marshall is 6-0 ATS off two straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Thundering Herd are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Marshall Saturday.