Winning Sports Picks

20* Maryland/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -2 

The Illinois Fighting Illini want revenge from a tough 58-59 loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season.  I think we are getting Illinois at a tremendous value as only 2-point favorites at home in the rematch. 

Illinois has been the best team in the Big Ten over the last month.  The Fighting Illini are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Iowa last time out after they blew a big lead in the first half.  The Fighting Illini are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game. 

Illinois also has the rest advantage as they come in on four days’ rest after last playing on Sunday while Maryland is on just two days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  And I have no doubt the Terrapins come in overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS I their last five games overall coming in. 

Maryland is just 2-4 SU in its last six true road games with its only wins coming at lowly Northwestern and at Indiana by 1 after they erased a 6-point deficit in the final minute.  They won’t be so fortunate tonight against arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Bet Illinois Friday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulane +16.5 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Tulane Green Wave.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and are now catching a whopping 16.5 points at Houston because of it.  They have dropped below .500 for the first time this season and will be highly motivated tonight. 

Houston is coming off a tough 62-64 road loss at Cincinnati, which is one of their biggest challengers to win the AAC this season.  It’s the type of loss that will be hard to get over, and the Cougars may not be 100% focused tonight, especially playing a team that has lost five straight coming in like Tulane. 

The Cougars will be without one of their best players in Dejon Jarreau (9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.9 APG), who does a little bit of everything for this team.  He has been suspended for biting a Cincinnati player.  Quentin Grimes (12.0 PPG) is battling a hip injury, though he is expected to play tonight. 

Tulane is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS after making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Tulane Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota -3 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in against a brutal schedule as they were a dog in all four games and actually did well to win one. 

They lost on the road to Rutgers and Illinois as well as a home to Michigan State.  But they pulled the upset at Ohio State.  Now they are back home here where they are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  That includes are 4-1 home record with wins over Ohio State by 13, Northwestern by 9, Michigan by 8 and Penn State by 6. 

Wisconsin is in an obvious letdown spot off its 64-63 upset home win over Michigan State on Saturday.  The Badgers are 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue and by 6 at Iowa. 

Minnesota is 14-5 ATS in home games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 12-3 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  Minnesota is 8-0 ATS off a road loss where it scored 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Gophers are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Badgers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Gophers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.  Take Minnesota Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

The Providence Friars want revenge from a tough 74-78 road loss at Creighton as 6-point underdogs on January 18th.  Now they get their shot at revenge just over two weeks later at home this time around in a game they basically just have to win to cover. 

Providence has lost three of its last four but was competitive in all three losses.  They only lost by 4 at Creighton, by 9 at Seton Hall and by 4 at home to Villanova.  But they pulled the upset at Butler last time out as 6.5-point dogs, so they are battle-tested. 

Creighton is in a huge letdown spot off its shocking 76-61 win at Villanova as 6.5-point dogs.  The Bluejays wanted revenge from blowing a double-digit lead at Villanova earlier this season.  Now I think they relax here off four straight wins and Providence simply wants this game more. 

Providence is 8-3 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 1-10 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons.  The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet Providence Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia +9.5 

The Florida Gators have been consistently overvalued, especially here of late.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Baylor by 11 and Mississippi State by 7 while also narrowly beating lowly Vanderbilt by 6 as 11.5-point road favorites last time out. 

Georgia has gone a solid 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Bulldogs just handled Texas A&M 63-48 at home as 6.5-point favorites and now hit the road to take on a Florida team that they have had no problem beating in Gainesville in recent years. 

Indeed, Georgia is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Florida.  That includes a 61-55 win as 11-point dogs and a 72-69 (OT) win as 10-point dogs in their last two trips to Gainesville.  And now they are catching 9.5 points again this year.  Asking Florida to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. 

Florida is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Gators are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Georgia Wednesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Louis -4.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from one of its worst losses of the season.  The Billikens fell 59-73 at Duquesne as 2.5-point dogs on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  Now the Billikens get the Dukes at home this time around. 

Saint Louis is 11-2 at home this season with one of its losses coming to one of the best teams in the country in Dayton by 2 in overtime.  The Billikens are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Duquesne.  The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  They will protect their home court tonight and get revenge in blowout fashion. 

The Dukes have really fallen off since that win over Saint Louis.  They are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their three wins coming in narrow fashion against three of the worst teams in the Atlantic 10.  They beat George Washington by 5, Fordham by 2 as an 18-point home favorite and La Salle by 2 as a 9.5-point home favorite.  They also lost by 22 at Rhode Island and by 9 at Umass as a 5.5-point favorite. 

Saint Louis is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games off two straight road games.  The Dukes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Duquesne is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Saint Louis Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -3.5 

Fading Evansville has been an absolute ATM machine and it will continue to be tonight.  This is an Evansville team with a lot of turmoil with head coach Walter McCarty stepping down mid-season.  And their best player in Deandre Williams (16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been out since January 4th with a back injury. 

Evansville has gone 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS in Missouri Valley play this season.  Seven of those 10 losses have come by double-digits as they’ve rarely even been competitive.  They don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive tonight either. 

Southern Illinois is playing as well as anyone in the MVC right now.  The Salukis are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall despite being underdogs in all five games.  They upset Drake and Illinois State on the road, as well as Drake, Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago at home.  They aren’t about to fall to Evansville tonight after winning all those games against the best teams in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (20% to 40%) over the last three seasons.  Evansville is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Salukis are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The Salukis are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Evansville is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 Wednesday games.  These six trends combine for a 44-1 system backing the Salukis tonight.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Butler FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Butler -2 

Butler wants revenge from a 61-76 road loss at Villanova in their first meeting on January 21st.  They also want to bounce back from an upset home loss to Providence.  It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for both reasons and we’ll get their ‘A’ effort. 

Butler is 10-2 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They face a Villanova team that is overvalued right now after winning seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Wildcats just lost at home 61-76 to Creighton as 6.5-point dogs, so they are far from invincible. 

Villanova is 2-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season.  Butler is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games off a conference loss as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a double-digit home loss.  Villanova is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Butler Wednesday. 

15* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats return home highly motivated for a victory off a loss at Auburn over the weekend.  They have responded very well after their last two losses, beating Louisville 78-70 as 1.5-point favorites and winning at Arkansas 73-66 as 1.5-point dogs.  The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season. 

Now the Wildcats host a Mississippi State team that is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, and it’s time to ’sell high’ on them here as this will be their toughest test of the entire season tonight.  The Bulldogs have just two wins in true road games this year. 

Kentucky owns Mississippi State, going 13-0 SU in the last 13 meetings.  The Wildcats are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings while winning those five games by an average of 18.0 points per game.  The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan -2 

After dropping four straight, the Michigan Wolverines have bounced back nicely with road wins and covers over Nebraska and Rutgers.  Look for them to continue their recent surge with an easy home win over the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight. 

This is an Ohio State team that has been grossly overvalued in Big Ten play and continues to be tonight.  The Buckeyes are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite being favored in eight of those nine contests.   

Their only wins came at home against Nebraska and Indiana and on the road at Northwestern, the worst team in the Big Ten.  They lost by 14 at Penn State, by 12 at Indiana and by 12 at Maryland in their other three true road games during this stretch. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Michigan Tuesday. 

15* Baylor/K-State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State +7.5 

No question oddsmakers have had a tough time setting lines for Baylor because they keep covering.  The Bears have opened 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in Big 12 play as backers continue to get rewarded for betting the No. 1 ranked team in the country. 

But with all that point spread success and No. 1 ranking eventually comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And I think the Bears are finally overvalued here as 7.5-point road favorites at Kansas State.  This is a game I could see them losing outright. 

While we’ll ‘sell high’ on Baylor, we’ll ‘buy low’ on a Kansas State team that is much better than its 9-12 record would indicate.  Eight of those 12 losses have come by single-digits, so the Wildcats have been hard up on their luck in close games.  KenPom has the Wildcats 343rd out of 353 teams in the luck factor this season. 

Kansas State has been through the gauntlet lately and is battle-tested because of it.  The Wildcats are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  Their only blowout loss came at Kansas.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama and by 9 at WVU.  They upset WVU by 16 as 7-point dogs and handled Oklahoma by 8 as 2-point favorites in their only two home games during this stretch.  The Wildcats are 8-3 at home this season. 

Kansas State owns Baylor, going 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Baylor is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Take Kansas State Monday. 

20* Texas/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Texas +14.5 

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from a 66-57 home loss to the Kansas Jayhawks on January 18th just two weeks ago.  They led The Jayhawks 31-26 at halftime before getting outscored by 14 points after intermission.  They will be highly motivated for revenge because of it. 

You’re really paying a tax to back the Jayhawks because they are ranked No. 3 in the country right now.  And that is especially the case when they play at home.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, beating Texas Tech by 3 as 8.5-point favorites, Tennessee by 6 as 13-point favorites, WVU by 7 as 10-point favorites and losing outright to Baylor by 12 as 7.5-point favorites. 

Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Kansas not once losing by more than 12 points in those five games.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Texas Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle +9.5

This is a great spot to fade the Duquesne Dukes.  They just lost a heartbreaker to a Top 10 opponent in Dayton by a final of 69-73 as 8-point home underdogs.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat in time to face La Salle this afternoon.

It has been a string of poor performances for the Dukes outside that effort against Dayton.  Duquesne is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The two wins came against lowly George Washington (by 5) as an 8-point road favorites and Fordham (by 2) as an 18-point home favorite.  They also lost by 9 at UMass as 5.5-point favorites and were crushed by 22 at Rhode Island. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on La Salle, which has lost six straight coming in.  But they were competitive in almost every loss and only lost by 3 at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and by 1 to St. Louis as 3.5-point home dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10, so they have proven the can play with teams like Duquesne. 

Each of the last three meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  The Explorers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The road team is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.  La Salle is 6-0 ATS after playing three straight games as an underdog this season.  Duquesne is 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with La Salle Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Chicago -5 

I love the spot for Loyola-Chicago Saturday.  They are coming off two straight road losses at Northern Iowa (OT) and at Southern Illinois, which have been two of the best home teams in the Missouri Valley. 

Now the Ramblers return home highly motivated for a win Saturday.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season with its last three wins all coming by 16 points or more over Indiana State by 20, Southern Illinois by 16 and Evansville by 34. 

The Ramblers also want revenge from a 51-53 loss to Bradley in the MVC Tournament last year.  Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Bradley with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +9 

The Washington State Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have been a very tough out at home this season and should not be catching 9 points against Arizona given the spot. 

Arizona comes in on one days’ rest after an overtime win at Washington on Thursday.  Washington has had two days’ rest since its home win over Arizona State on Wednesday.  That is a big advantage for the Cougars in this one. 

Washington State is 10-2 SU at home this season.  The Cougars are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games despite being an underdog in all four.  They upset UCLA 79-71 as 2-point dogs, upset Oregon 72-61 as 9-point dogs, upset Oregon State 89-76 as 3.5-point dogs and upset Arizona State 67-65 as 2-point dogs. 

Oddsmakers continue to give the Cougars no respect at home tonight, and we’ll gladly take advantage.  The Wildcats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  They don’t deserve this kind of respect.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Take Washington State Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Nebraska off six straight losses.  But the Huskers are rapidly improving under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg despite the losses.  They have been a lot more competitive since they’ve jumped into Big Ten play. 

Indeed, the Huskers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes upset home wins over Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs and Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Indiana to OT on the road, and covered in road losses to NW, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Rutgers.  They just aren’t getting blown out. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Penn State after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with huge wins over Ohio State and Indiana at home as well as struggling Michigan on the road.  This is a clear letdown and lookahead spot now with Michigan State on deck Tuesday. 

Nebraska comes in on three days’ rest while Penn State comes in on just two days’ rest.  The Nittany Lions are 1-3-2 ATS in their last six games as road favorites.  The Huskers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last four games off an ATS loss.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +2 

Oregon’s luck will run out today at Stanford.  The Ducks have won four straight with two of those in OT and also a 5-point win at lowly Cal.  Now they face a pissed off Stanford team that will beat them outright. 

The Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory after dropping three straight coming in.  They are back home here where they are 11-2 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  One of those losses was to Kansas while the other was an upset loss to Oregon State last time out.  I just can’t see them dropping two straight at home here. 

The home team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The only exception was a 2-point win by Oregon as 7-point favorites.  Stanford has pulled the upset in two of their last three home meetings with Oregon.  And this is the best team the Cardinal have had in a long time. 

The Cardinal are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Stanford is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.  The Cardinal are 49-24 ATS in their last 73 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5 

The Texas Longhorns are 8-3 at home this season while the Iowa State Cyclones are just 1-7 in all road games.  It’s a pretty easy choice here with the Longhorns laying just 2.5 points at home Saturday. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  Texas is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Iowa State. 

The Cyclones are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.  Iowa State is coming off two straight deflating losses against Top 25 teams in Auburn and Baylor and won’t be able to get up for the Longhorns.  Bet Texas Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +11 

Ole Miss is starting to play up to its potential finally.  In their last two games they went on the road and upset Georgia 70-60 as 7-point underdogs and took Auburn to overtime in an 82-83 loss as 5.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with LSU Saturday. 

The Tigers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-0 SU in their last nine games overall.  They have simply been fortunate in close games, too.  Six of their last seven wins have remarkably come by 4 points or fewer. 

The Tigers have a rest disadvantage.  They come in on two days’ rest after playing Alabama on Wednesday while Ole Miss comes in on three days’ rest after facing Auburn on Tuesday.  That extra day of prep will be huge for the Rebels. 

Ole Miss also wants revenge from a 76-80 home loss to LSU on January 18th about exactly two weeks ago.  The Rebels are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.  The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton +7 

Creighton wants revenge from a 59-64 home loss to Villanova on January 7th.  The Bluejays blew a double-digit lead in that game.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull the upset today and get their revenge. 

The Bluejays have proven they can compete on the road this season.  They are 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games.  They pulled road upsets over Arizona State, Xavier and DePaul and only lost by 3 at Georgetown during this stretch. 

Creighton has the rest and preparation edge as they come in on five days’ rest after playing on Sunday while Villanova is only on three days’ rest after playing on Tuesday.  That advantage plus the revenge factor makes Creighton worth a bet as 7-point dogs here. 

The Bluejays are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win.  Creighton is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Saturday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  After being a 2-point favorite in the first meeting, the Bluejays are now 7-point dogs in the rematch, a 9-point adjustment that is too much.  Bet Creighton Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +6.5 

Georgia Tech wants revenge from a 74-78 home loss as 1.5-point home favorites over Notre Dame on January 15th about two weeks ago.  The Yellow Jackets blew a late lead in that game and haven’t forgotten. 

I like the rest advantage here for the Yellow Jackets.  They got a freebie against Morehouse on Tuesday in an 82-54 win.  So that was like a practice game for them.  Notre Dame just played on Wednesday and only has two days’ rest to get ready for Georgia Tech. 

This is a big number for Notre Dame to be laying.  They have just one win in ACC play by more than 4 points, which was against Wake Forest at home.  Six of their last seven games have been decided by 5 points or less as well. 

The Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Georgia Tech is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games overall.  The Fighting Irish are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win.  Notre Dame is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday. 

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida International -2 

Florida International is a perfect 9-0 at home this season and winning by 16.5 points per game.  I’ll gladly back them as only 2-point home favorites over Marshall tonight in this Conference USA showdown. 

Marshall is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season with its only wins coming against poor Middle Tennessee and Morehead State teams.  They lost by 11 at UAB and by 7 at Western Kentucky in their two most recent road games. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Golden Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Florida International Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Tech -2 

This feels like a great spot to back the Texas Tech Red Raiders at home.  They are coming off two straight losses to TCU and Kentucky.  The OT loss to Kentucky snapped a 54-game home winning streak in non-conference play. 

Now the Red Raiders welcome 12th-ranked West Virginia.  Texas Tech is 9-2 at home this season, while the Mountaineers are 3-3 in true road games.  That includes a 16-point loss at Kansas State in their last road games, and we’ve seen K-State struggle to win any games lately. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a 12-point loss at West Virginia in their first meeting on January 11th just over two weeks ago.  WVU had a 35-to-7 edge in free throw attempts, which was the difference in that game.  That FT discrepancy won’t be nearly as lopsided in the rematch in Lubbock this time around.  And Tech has the size inside to match up with the Mountaineers better than most teams. 

The Red Raiders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Texas Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats have been one of the most unlucky teams in all of college basketball.  They rank 344th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which basically tells you how lucky a team has been to have the record that they have. 

I have no doubt that Kansas State is much better than its 8-11 record would indicate.  Seven of those 11 losses have come by single-digits, including their tough 74-77 loss at Alabama as 9-point dogs over the weekend. 

One of those close losses was a 61-66 setback at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs on January 4th in their first meeting this season.  That places the Wildcats in revenge mode tonight. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings, and the Wildcats just have to win to cover. 

Oklahoma is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Oklahoma has just two true road wins all season over North Texas (by 2) and Texas.  Bet Kansas State Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +5.5 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the LSU Tigers off eight straight wins.  Remarkably, each of LSU’s last six wins have all come by 4 points or less.  They are simply getting lucky in close games and have a better record than they deserve to have at this point. 

Alabama just can’t seem to get any respect from oddsmakers.  The Crimson Tide are 10-3 SU & 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch came by 7 at Kentucky, by 6 at Florida in OT and by 2 at Penn State.  They haven’t been blown out since November. 

Alabama is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with LSU.  The Crimson Tide have only lost one of those eight games by more than 5 points.  SO I think there’s a lot of value on the Crimson Tide catching 5.5 points in a game they can win outright. 

LSU is just 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  The Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  LSU is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Alabama Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -3.5 

Both Drake and Indiana State are unbeaten at home this season.  Drake is 11-0 at home with one of its closest games coming against Indiana State in a 4-point win over the Sycamores on January 4th.  That places the Sycamores in revenge mode at home this time around. 

Indiana State is 8-0 at home this season.  They have been tremendous on defense at home, giving up just 56.8 points per game and outscoring their opponents by 12.4 points per game.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in MVC play and winning by 14.0 points per game with all four wins coming by 8 points or more. 

Drake is just 2-5 SU in true road games.  The two wins were against two very bad teams in Evansville and Air Force.  Drake’s five road losses have come by an average of 16.6 points per game. 

Indiana State is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or less this season.  Drake is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Sycamores are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -2.5 

The Air Force Falcons are the better team here and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Fresno State.  The Falcons were 9-9 but dropped three straight coming in.  Look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight to get back in the win column. 

Fresno State is just 6-14 on the season, including 2-9 in all road games.  They have lost seven of their last nine games overall with their only two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Wyoming.  Each of their last five losses have come by 9 points or more. 

That includes Fresno State’s 53-87 home loss to Boise State over the weekend.  Nate Grimes started serving his suspension in that game for conduct detrimental to the team.  He had 23 points against Colorado State the game prior, and he averages 12.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.  He is their best player and his loss to suspension is huge. 

Air Force is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Fresno State.  The Falcons are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Air Force Tuesday. 

15* Florida/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia +2 

I love the spot for the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.  It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on a Cavaliers team that has been a money burner for backs this season, going 13-6 SU but 5-14 ATS on the year.  Now they find themselves as home underdogs for the first time all season. 

Virginia wants revenge from a 50-54 road loss at Florida State on January 15th less than two weeks ago.  I have no doubt they’ll be the more motivated team as a result, and I look for them to have their revenge on the Seminoles. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Florida State, which is 17-2 and has won 10 straight coming in.  But the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with an 83-79 (OT) win at Miami as 6-point favorites and an 85-84 home win over Notre Dame as 9-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

The Seminoles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Florida State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  Virginia is 35-16 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home underdogs.  Bet Virginia Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +11 

The Texas A&M Aggies have some impressive road results here of late that has me attracted to them as double-digit road underdogs at Tennessee.  This is too many points tonight folks. 

Texas A&M Is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three road games.  The Aggies only lost by 10 at Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs.  They upset Vanderbilt 69-50 as 3.5-point road dogs.  And they pulled the 66-64 upset at Missouri as 10-point dogs. 

Tennessee is in a bad spot tonight.  The Vols just played 3rd-ranked Kansas on the road over the weekend and took them to the wire in a 68-74 defeat as 13-point dogs.  They won’t be nearly as motivated to face Texas A&M at home tonight. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  Texas A&M is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Vols are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +7 

Bill Self admitted that his team was tired from the aftermath of the suspension following the fight with Kansas State.  The Jayhawks only beat Tennessee 74-68 as 13-point home favorites on Saturday. 

Now, the Jayhawks have to still be tired playing their 2nd game in 3 days here.  They miss the depth provided by starter David McCormack and reserve Silvio De Sousa.  The Jayhawks now have to use a five-guard lineup when Udoka Azubuike goes out, which makes them susceptible underneath on both ends. 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys are 0-6 in Big 12 play, but they have been much more competitive in their last three games.  They led most the way against top-ranked Baylor before falling 68-75 at home.  They hung tough with Iowa State in an 82-89 road loss.  And their 73-62 win at Texas A&M over the weekend provides them with the confidence they need to try and take down Kansas tonight. 

Oklahoma State has played Kansas very tough at home recently.  The Cowboys are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Kansas.  Their two losses both came by exactly 5 points, so they haven’t lost any of the five by this 7-point spread.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Oklahoma State Monday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -5 

The Drake Bulldogs are a real contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 14-6 this year and have been one of the best covering teams in all of college basketball over the last few seasons. 

A big reason for Drake’s success is that they defend their home court.  Indeed, the Bulldogs are 10-0 at home this season and winning by 15.3 points per game.  They are 3-0 at home in MVC play with wins over Loyola-Chicago, Indiana State and Illinois State. 

Missouri State is just 2-5 in true road games with its only wins at Evansville and Illinois State, two of the worst teams in the MVC.  Drake is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Missouri State.  The Bulldogs won both meetings by double-digits last year. 

Drake is 36-13-2 ATS in its last 51 home games.  The Bulldogs are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Drake is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with Drake Sunday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from a 59-75 loss at Maryland on January 4th in their first meeting.  Considering how well the Hoosiers have played at home this season, they should have their revenge this afternoon. 

Indeed, Indiana is 12-1 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game.  They just upset Michigan State as 4-point home underdogs and also crushed Ohio State by 12 and Florida State by 16 at home. 

Maryland is just 1-4 SU in true road games with its only win coming at Northwestern, which is the worst team in the Big Ten.  The Terrapins lost at Wisconsin (by 2), Iowa (by 18), Seton Hall (by 4) and Penn State (by 7). 

The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  And the Hoosiers basically just have to win to cover at home today.  The Terrapins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

15* Washington/Colorado FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8 

The Washington Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 12-8 record would indicate, but they have just been unfortunate in close games this year.  And I expect this game against Colorado to come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is a great value. 

Indeed, Washington is 12-8 with seven of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  So they have only been beaten by more than this spread one time in 20 games this season.  KenPom has a luck factor for teams that shows how lucky are unlucky they are to have the record they have.  Well, Washington is 347th out of 353 teams in the luck category.  This is more like a 15-5 team rather than a 12-8 team. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 15-4 record and No. 23 national ranking.  But this is a Colorado team that is fortunate to have that record as they are 66th in the luck department.  And they have been upset by both Oregon State and Northern Iowa at home this year, so they are far from invincible at home. 

Colorado’s best player in Tyler Bey is questionable with a hand injury after sitting out last game against Washington State.  Bey averages 13.1 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9.3 RPG while also leading the team in 3-point percentage (47.1%).  Chances are he plays but he’s far from 100% with a hand injury. 

Washington owns Colorado, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes two upset wins as road underdogs winning 77-70 as 2.5-point dogs and 72-62 as 5-point dogs in its last two trips to Boulder.  Expect more of the same as the Buffaloes struggle with the size and defensive prowess of the Huskies, who give up just 62.7 PPG and 36.9% shooting this season.  Roll with Washington Saturday. 

20* Baylor/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida -2 

This is one of those rare situations where the unranked team in Florida is favored over the ranked team in Baylor.  And it’s not just any ranked team, it’s the No. 1 Baylor Bears.  And I fully agree with Florida being the favorite here. 

You can bet it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere for the Gators at home Saturday night with the No. 1 team coming to town.  And the Gators have defended their home court to near-perfection.  They are 7-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida State, which is the No. 5 ranked team in the country.  They just beat 16th-ranked Auburn by 22 in their last home game. 

I don’t believe Baylor is the best team in the country.  That ranking clearly went to their head when they were nearly upset by Oklahoma on Monday in a 61-57 win as 11-point home favorites.  They also barely won their previous game against lowly Oklahoma State as they trailed the entire way until the final minutes.  That’s an Oklahoma State team that is 0-6 in Big 12 play. 

Baylor usually has a big rebounding edge against most opponents, but that won’t be the case against Florida.  The Bears average 6 more boards per game than their opponents while the Gators average 5 more boards per game than their foes.  And it’s worth noting Florida (22nd) has played the tougher schedule than Baylor (47th).  The Gators are battle-tested and ready to take down the top-ranked team in the country.  Take Florida Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Head coach Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State in turning around those two programs.  And he’s doing the same in his first season at Tulane thanks to transfers. 

This is a Tulane team that has made me a lot of money this season.  They covered 4 straight recently to open AAC play.  They covered in narrow road losses to Memphis and UConn, while also upsetting Cincinnati as an 8-point home dog and Temple by 16 as a 9-point road dog. 

I think that stretch took its toll on Tulane because the Green Wave have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost at home to UCF and Tulsa.  But now they’ve had a full week to recover as they last play on Saturday, coming in on six days’ rest.  Expect one of their best efforts of the season to try and bounce back from those two losses. 

East Carolina is at a huge scheduling disadvantage.  The Pirates only come in on two days’ rest after losing 64-84 at SMU on Wednesday.  That followed up a 25-point loss at Cincinnati and a 16-point home loss to Tulsa.  Tulane is power rated about 8 points better than ECU according to KenPom, and when you factor in the favorable scheduling spot the Green Wave should be more than 1.5-point favorites here. 

ECU is 2-14 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 1-9 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  ECU is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball-handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.   

The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Tulane Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Oregon State Beavers, who have lost three in a row both SU & ATS coming in.  That has them highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the USC Trojans. 

USC is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Oregon in overtime.  I think that’s the kind of loss that beats them twice here.  Especially since the Trojans only have one day to recover from that contest on Thursday plus have the travel.  Oregon State gets to stay at home after facing UCLA Thursday and will be the much fresher, more prepared team. 

The Beavers are 8-2 at home this season.  They won both meetings with USC last year and should be able to handle this USC team that lost by 32 at Washington and by 9 at Oregon in two of its recent road games. 

Oregon State is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Oregon State Saturday. 

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State -2.5 

The Indiana State Sycamores are highly motivated for a win off two straight road losses to Valparaiso and Loyola-Chicago.  And now they will certainly get up for defending MVC champ Bradley today.  I believe the Sycamores are favored for good reason. 

Indiana State is 7-0 at home this season.  That includes a 3-0 home record in conference play with all three wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 16.0 points per game.  The Sycamores are one of the most underrated teams in the MVC this season as they’re a veteran squad that returned four starters. 

Bradley comes in overvalued after winning four of their last five and going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  But they could be without their top two scorers Saturday.  Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) is for sure out, while Darrell Brown (14.2 PPG) is questionable with a quad injury after sitting out last game. 

Bradley is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season.  They lost to a very bad St. Joe’s team as 5-point road favorites, lost by 15 at Memphis, lost by 16 at Miami Ohio as 2-point favorites and also lost at Northern Iowa.  Their only two road wins came against poor Missouri State and Evansville teams. 

Indiana State has won five of its last seven meetings with Bradley.  The Sycamores are 17-5 SU in their last 22 home meetings with Bradley.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet Indiana State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13 

I love fading the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in this spot.  They just got ranked this week for the first time since the 1978-79 season.  And they are now getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that Top 25 ranking. 

I know Rutgers is 13-0 at home this season, but that is being factored into the line way too much.  Also this is an overreaction from Rutgers beating Nebraska 79-62 on the road on January 3rd in their first meeting this season. 

I’ll gladly side with the revenge-minded Huskers, who are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs and Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs.  They just aren’t getting blown out as they have only been beaten by more than 14 points once in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska is 10-2 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 13-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights have just two days to prepare while the Huskers have three days to get ready after playing on Tuesday.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5 

The Michigan Wolverines are showing great value as a short home favorite Saturday over Illinois.  We are getting the Wolverines at a discount because they have lost three straight coming in both SU and ATS.  That has them highly motivated for a win here Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation is the fact that Michigan wants revenge from a 62-71 loss at Illinois in their first meeting this season.  Well, home-court advantage has been huge for the Wolverines in this series as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  The home team is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  And Michigan has faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire country this year so they are battle-tested. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Illini, who have won five straight coming in.  But three of those wins were by 4 points or fewer, including narrow home wins over Rutgers (by 3) and Northwestern (by 4).  And Illinois just lost its first player off the bench in Alan Griffin (8.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to a two-game suspension.  Griffin also leads the team in 3-point percentage (39.4%) and FT percentage (89.5%). 

Michigan is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-4 ATS off a loss over the last three years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Fighting Illini are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* Wisconsin/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -4 

The Purdue Boilermakers are highly motivated for a win tonight.  They are coming off a rare home loss to Illinois and have dropped four of their last five overall with the other three losses coming on the road.  Look for them to get back in the win column with a blowout victory over Wisconsin Friday. 

Purdue is now 15-1 SU in its last 16 Big Ten home games to show you how rare that loss to Illinois really was.  The Boilermakers are 8-2 at home this season with impressive wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

Wisconsin has gone 3-3 in true road games with blowout losses to NC State by 15 and Michigan State by 12, as well as a loss at Rutgers by 7.  Purdue has gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Wisconsin. 

The Badgers are 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Boilermakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games off a loss.  Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Purdue Friday. 

20* UCLA/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -7.5 

The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Washington and Washington State. 

Now the Beavers return home where they are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.0 points per game.  They crushed Arizona 82-65 in their last home games and have one of the better home-court advantages in the Pac-12. 

UCLA is a dumpster fire right now.  It is 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with its only wins coming against Cal and Washington.  Five of those six losses came by 8 points or more, so the Bruins have been blown out on the regular. 

Oregon State is 8-1 ATS off two straight games where they had 5 or fewer steals over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the Bruins.  UCLA is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Bruins are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Beavers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss.  The Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games off a SU loss.  Roll with Oregon State Thursday. 

15* Michigan State/Indiana FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +4 

Home-court advantage has been huge in the Big Ten this season.  That has especially been the case for the Indiana Hoosiers, who are 11-1 at home and winning by 15.9 points per game this season.  They have impressive wins over Florida State by 16 and Ohio State by 12 at home this year. 

Michigan State has clearly been vulnerable on the road.  The Spartans are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in true road games this season.  They only won by 3 at Seton Hall as 5.5-point favorites.  They only won by 5 at Northwestern as 12-point favorites.  And they were blasted by 29 at Purdue as similar 4.5-point favorites. 

Indiana upset Michigan State in both meetings last season.  They won 79-75 as 14-point road dogs and 63-62 as 6-point home dogs.  And the Hoosiers are night and day better than they were a year ago as this is easily the best team that Archie Miller has had in his tenure.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Indiana is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 0-6 ATS in all neutral/road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.  The Hoosiers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Take Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington PK 

Washington (12-7) and Utah (10-7) have similar records this season, but there is a big difference between these teams.  I have the Huskies power-rated 10 points better than Utah on a neutral, so I’ll gladly back them as a pick ‘em here tonight. 

Washington has been one of the most unlucky teams in the country this season in close games.  They rank 348th out of 353 teams in the ‘luck’ factor because of these close losses.  Six of Washington’s seven losses have come by 7 points or fewer, including four by 4 points or less. 

Utah also has seven losses this season, but five of those seven have come by 16 points or more and by an average of 19 points per game.  That includes a 22-point loss to Coastal Carolina, a 39-point loss to Colorado, a 28-point loss to San Diego State, a 19-point loss to Arizona State and a 16-point loss to Arizona. 

Utah is 0-6 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Utes are 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a dog.  The Utes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games.  Bet Washington Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have been flying under the radar all season in going 14-4 and getting ranked for the first time since the 1970’s.  But with that national ranking and record comes expectations that are going to be hard to live up to. 

I think Rutgers suffers an emotional letdown after getting ranked.  It’s also a good time to ’sell high’ on the Scarlet Knights after going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Rutgers has done most of its damage at home this season.  But the Scarlet Knights are just 1-4 in all games played away from home this season with their only win coming against lowly Nebraska. 

Iowa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17.0 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in Big Ten home games, outscoring Minnesota, Maryland and Michigan by an average of 15.0 points per game.  I would argue all three of those teams are better than Rutgers. 

Iowa is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Hawkeyes are 9-2 ATS as favorites this season.  Iowa is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Fran McCaffery is 10-1 ATS in home games off two straight games with 19 or more assists as the coach of Iowa.  Bet Iowa Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4 

Mississippi State had big expectations heading into 2019 with all the talent they returned.  But they opened just 9-6 with some bad losses.  However, they have certainly played up to their potential in their last two games.  It has been two of the most impressive performances in the SEC all season. 

The Bulldogs beat Missouri by 27 at home and Georgia by 32 at home in their last two games.  They covered the spread by a combined 50 points in those two contests.  And now I think we’re getting the Bulldogs cheap again at home Wednesday against the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

The Razorbacks are coming off a tough home loss to Kentucky Saturday.  I usually like fading teams after facing Kentucky because it’s always hard for them to get up for their next opponent.  And Mississippi State owns Arkansas, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while covering the spread by a combined 64 points in those four games. 

Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Arkansas) - off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a blowout home win by 20 points or more are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Mississippi State Wednesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +4.5 

I love the spot for the Syracuse Orange tonight.  They want revenge from an 87-88 home loss to Notre Dame on January 4th.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 4.5-point dogs in this rematch.  I think the wrong team is favored here. 

Syracuse has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Notre Dame.  The Orange are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, upsetting Virginia 63-55 as 7-point road dogs, crushing Boston College 76-50 as 11.5-point home favorites and upsetting Virginia Tech 71-69 as 4-point road dogs. 

That was also a revenge game against VA Tech after losing at home to the Hokies.  And home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  The Orange have played their best basketball on the road this season with their upset wins over Virginia, VA Tech and also Georgia Tech 97-63. 

Syracuse is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 road games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Orange are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Orange are 11-3 ATS in conference road games over the last two seasons.  Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 10-19 ATS in their last 29 home games.  Notre Dame is 6-21-1 ATS in its last 28 games off an ATS win.  Roll with Syracuse Wednesday. 

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -5 

I love the spot for the Michigan Wolverines tonight.  They’ll be highly motivated for a win off back-to-back road losses at Minnesota and Iowa.  They have lost three of their last four overall with all three coming on the road. 

Now the Wolverines return home tonight on four days’ rest and ready to get back in the win column.  Michigan is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Oregon in overtime.  And the Wolverines have won eight of their last nine meetings with Penn State. 

Penn State has been great at home but is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing by an average of 16.3 points per game.  The Wolverines are 64th out of 353 teams in 3-point percentage (36%) while the Nittany Lions are 253rd defending the 3 (34.1%). 

Michigan is 15-3 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 10-2 ATS in conference home games over the last two years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet Michigan Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on St. John’s +8.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on St. John’s after losing five of their last six games overall.  The Red Storm have been undervalued for over a month as they are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have taken some good teams to the wire and have also beaten some very good teams. 

Indeed, the Red Storm have upset wins over West Virginia and Arizona.  They only lost by 2 to Butler, by 3 to Seton Hall, by 5 to Providence and by 8 to Xavier during this stretch.  They only have one loss by more than 8 points in their last 13 games and only two losses by more than 8 points all season. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Marquette after two straight wins and covers over Xavier at home and Georgetown on the road.  This is a Marquette team that had lost by 14 at Seton Hall and to Providence at home in their two games prior.  It’s just not a Golden Eagles team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this against a quality opponent. 

St. John’s is 8-2 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Golden Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take St. John’s Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +15 

Wisconsin ranks 351st in adjusted tempo out of 353 teams this season.  They play at a snail’s pace, which makes it very difficult for them to win by margin.  I will gladly fade them as 15-point home favorites over Nebraska tonight. 

It’s certainly a letdown spot for the Badgers as well.  They have played four ranked teams in their last five games.  They won’t be able to get up for Nebraska like they were in those five games, which were all decided by 12 points or fewer. 

Nebraska is undervalued right now due to its 7-11 record.  But the Huskers are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with only one loss by more than 12 points during this stretch.  That includes upset wins over both Purdue and Iowa. 

This has been a very closely-contested series through the years.  Indeed, each of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 15 points or fewer.  Nine were decided by 12 points per less.  That makes for a 9-0-1 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 15-point spread.  Bet Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Purdue -5.5 

This is a great spot to back the Purdue Boilermakers.  They are highly motivated for a win after losing three of their last four, and they want revenge from a 37-63 loss at Illinois in which they couldn’t make anything, shooting 25% as a team and 3-of-17 from 3-point range. 

But all three of those losses came on the road.  Purdue has won 15 straight Big Ten home games dating back to February 2018.  They have won six straight home games against ranked teams.  They are 8-1 at home this season including wins over Michigan State by 29 and Virginia by 29. 

No. 21 Illinois is starting to get some love from oddsmakers after winning four straight and moving into the Top 25 for the first time this season.  But they were fortunate to win their last three, beating Wisconsin by 1 on the road, and Rutgers by 3 and Northwestern by 4 at home.  Their luck runs out tonight against a hungry Boilermakers squad. 

Purdue is 9-2 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  Purdue is 7-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Illinois winning by 12.1 points per game on average.  The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Purdue is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Purdue Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +17 

This number has gotten out of control for a rivalry game between Kansas and Kansas State.  I’ll gladly side with the road underdog Wildcats in what should be a defensive battle with limited possessions and that favors the big road dog. 

The Wildcats are 8-9 this season and undervalued because of their record.  But keep in mind they have six losses by 8 points or fewer.  All nine losses have come by 14 points or less as well, so they haven’t lost by a margin this big all season.  And they’re coming off a huge confidence-building 84-68 upset of West Virginia as 7-point dogs. 

West Virginia took Kansas to the wire in a 53-60 road loss at 10-point dogs.  Baylor won outright at Kansas by 12 as 7.5-point dogs.  Those were the Jayhawks’ last two home games.  They are actually playing better on the road than at home this season.  They’ve consistently been overvalued at home. 

Each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 16 points or less, making for a 7-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 17-point spread.  The Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.  Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win by 15 points or more as an underdog.  Roll with Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* Oklahoma/Baylor ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma +10 

The No. 1 ranked Baylor Bears have won 14 straight to improve to 15-1 on the season.  They have started 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in Big 12 play as well.  With all this success comes expectations from oddsmakers that are hard to live up to, and thus we’ll ’sell high’ on the Bears. 

Baylor had no business covering against Oklahoma State on Saturday.  They trailed the entire way against a Cowboys team that had previously been 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in Big 12 play with blowout loss after blowout loss.  But they pulled away in the closing minutes to win 75-68 and covered as 5.5-point favorites. 

Oklahoma has opened 3-2 in Big 12 play with an impressive upset win at Texas by 10 as 3-point underdogs.  They blew out TCU 83-63 at home on Saturday and should still be fresh for this game against Baylor because of it.  The Sooners are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, though, so I think this is a good opportunity to ‘buy low’ on them. 

Plays on road dogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Oklahoma) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight conference wins are 59-28 (67.8%) ATS since 1997.  The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Oklahoma Monday. 

15* Temple/SMU ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on SMU -5 

The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight road losses to East Carolina and Houston.  Now they are back home and highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Temple Owls.  I love the spot for the Mustangs tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home/road splits in the country in recent seasons.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage as they are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 13.3 points per game. 

Temple is in a letdown spot off its upset home win over Wichita State as 4-point dogs.  After all, the Owls were 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games.  They lost by 14 as 9-point home favorites over Tulane, by 4 as 3-point home dogs to Houston and by 26 at Tulsa as 2.5-point favorites.  So that win over Wichita State was an aberration, and they caught the Shockers in a favorable spot as they were coming off an OT win at UConn. 

The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  SMU is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last three home meetings with Temple with the three wins coming by 23, 14 and 9 points.  The Mustangs are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 Saturday games.  SMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Bet SMU Saturday. 

15* Louisville/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -7 

The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a shocking 72-79 loss at Clemson as 10.5-point favorites.  It’s safe to say they will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight over the Louisville Cardinals.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against 11th-ranked Louisville. 

I believe Louisville is a fraud.  The Cardinals are coming off two straight narrow wins over Notre Dame and Pitt, needing OT to beat Pitt.  And they have recent losses to Florida State by 13 at home, by 13 to Texas Tech on a neutral and by 8 at Kentucky.  Duke is the best team in the country and should win at home by more than 7 points today. 

The Blue Devils are 9-1 at home this season and winning by 23.9 points per game.  The Cardinals are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Blue Devils are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games off a loss.  Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Duke Saturday. 

20* Houston/Wichita State AAC No-Brainer on Wichita State -3 

The Wichita State Shockers are 15-2 this season and a legit threat to win the American Athletic this season.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the Houston Cougars today. 

The Shockers will be highly motivated for a win after a loss at Temple.  Now they are back home where they are 12-0 this season and outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma (by 5), VCU (by 10), Ole Miss (by 20) and Memphis (by 9) at home this season. 

The Houston Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers after feasting on an easy schedule and going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Only two of those were true road games, and they were fortunate to win by 4 at Temple while also getting upset at Tulsa as 6.5-point favorites.  This is a Houston team that lost a lot of talent from last season and only brought back one starter. 

The Shockers are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Wichita State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Shockers are 22-10-3 ATS in their last 35 games overall.  Roll with Wichita State Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -1.5 

I love the spot for the Oregon Ducks tonight.  They are coming off a shocking upset loss at Washington State as 9-point favorites.  It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a win at Washington to make up for it tonight. 

The Huskies are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  And this is an Oregon team that they haven’t handled in the past.  The Ducks are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Huskies. 

One matchup advantage that is going to be huge for Oregon is their pressure defense up against a sloppy Washington offense.  The Huskies rank 284th in turnovers at 15.1 per game.  Oregon plays a pressure defense that will capitalize on those turnovers. 

Washington is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games off two straight games where it was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Ducks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.  Oregon is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog.  Take Oregon Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Tulane PK 

Tulane had covered four straight prior to a 55-74 upset home loss to UCF.  It was a predictable letdown off their 65-51 upset win as 9-point dogs at Temple a few nights before.  They also upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs and covered as double-digit road dogs to Memphis and UConn during this stretch. 

Now the Green Wave will be highly motivated for a win after that letdown against UCF.  And we are getting them at a tremendous value in a situation where they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. 

Few teams have had bigger home/road splits than Tulsa in recent years.  While the Golden Hurricane are 9-2 at home this year, they are just 2-4 in all road games.  Their only road wins came against poor ECU and Vanderbilt teams.  They lost by 14 at UT-Arlington, lost at Kansas State, lost by 19 at Arkansas and lost by a whopping 31 at Cincinnati.  That’s the same Cincinnati team that Tulane already beat. 

Tulane is 3-0 and winning by 13.3 points per game against common opponents of Tulsa, which is 2-1 against those same three teams and only winning by 0.6 points per game.  Tulane is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% this season.  The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Bet Tulane Saturday. 

20* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -1.5 

Auburn finally had its 15-game winning streak to start the season come to an end with a 64-83 loss at Alabama on Wednesday.  Now bubble has burst and I always like fading teams in their next game out after their extended winning streak has come to an end.  They seem to let a team beat them twice in this situation. 

Florida will be the fresher team after making easy work of Ole Miss 71-55 at home on Tuesday as they come in on three days’ rest while Auburn only comes in on two days’ rest. The Gators are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to a Top 10 Florida State team. 

Auburn hasn’t won at Florida since 1996.  In fact, the Gators are 12-0 SU in their last 12 home meetings with Auburn.  So they basically just have to win to cover this short number at home tonight.  And you can bet the Gators want revenge from a loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship last year.  Take Florida Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -1.5 

Texas A&M is flying under the radar because their season-long stats aren’t a true picture of how well this team is playing right now.  They got off to a rough start in Buzz Williams’ first season, but now they have turned a corner and are playing better than most teams in the SEC right now. 

The Aggies have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Arkansas by 10 as 14.5-point dogs and at home to LSU by 4 in OT as 6.5-point dogs.  They upset Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and also upset Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs. 

South Carolina is in a huge letdown spot after banking in a 3 at the buzzer to beat Kentucky at home as 6.5-point dogs on Wednesday.  Now they only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M, while the Aggies last played on Tuesday.  The Gamecocks had lost three straight prior to that Kentucky win, including getting upset by Stetson 56-63 as 22.5-point home favorites. 

South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Texas A&M is 10-2 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 1-10 ATS off two straight games where their opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons.  Frank Martin is 1-8 ATS in road games off a close win by 3 points or less as the coach of South Carolina.  Buzz Williams is 12-3 ATS in home games off a home loss to a conference opponent in all games as a head coach.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* Michigan/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -4.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes want to avenge their 91-103 loss at Michigan earlier this season on December 6th.  Now the Hawkeyes get the Wolverines at home this time around and it will be a completely different story. 

Iowa is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in eight games since that loss to Michigan.  That includes 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home with wins over Minnesota by 20, Kennesaw State by 42 and Maryland by 18.  They also pulled off road wins over Iowa State, Cincinnati and Northwestern during this stretch. 

The Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS a home this season and winning by 18.3 points per game.  The Wolverines are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 15 at Louisville, by 9 at Illinois, by 18 at Michigan State and by 8 at Minnesota.  The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Iowa Friday. 

20* Wisconsin/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on UNDER 131.5 

The Wisconsin Badgers are built for UNDERS and have been for years.  They rank 351st out of 353 teams in adjusted tempo this season.  They will try and slow this game to a snail’s pace to give themselves the best chance of hanging with the Spartans tonight. 

The UNDER is 3-1 in Wisconsin’s last four games overall with the three UNDERS resulting in combined scores of 110 points against Maryland, 107 points against Penn State and 118 points against Ohio State.  Expect more of the same tonight. 

The UNDER is also 3-1 in Michigan State’s last four games overall.  They combined for 132 points with Illinois, 132 points with Minnesota and 113 points with Purdue.  They are giving up just 59.8 points per game at home this season, while Wisconsin is allowing just 60.1 points per game on the road. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 122, 126, 123 and 131 points.  As you can see, all four went UNDER this 131.5-point total.  The UNDER is 38-13 in Badgers last 51 games as a road underdog.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Badgers last eight road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +2.5 

Arizona State lost to Colorado in the season opener in Shanghai, China.  That game didn’t count in the conference standings, but you know the Sun Devils want revenge on the Buffaloes in Temple, AZ this time around. 

The Sun Devils are certainly happy to be playing their first Pac-12 home game tonight following a brutal three games on the road.  They have played three of the best teams in the conference in Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon all on the highway and did well just to win one of those games considering they were double-digit dogs in two and 6-point dogs in the other. 

Conversely, Colorado has opened with three straight home games in Pac-12 play.  They beat Oregon and Utah but were upset by Oregon State as 7.5-point favorites.  Now the Buffaloes will be playing just their 3rd true road game of the season.  They lost by 14 at Kansas and won by 8 at Colorado State. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Colorado is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games off two consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Buffaloes are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Sun Devils are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog.  Bet Arizona State Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Florida International -2 

The FIU Golden Panthers are one of my favorite teams in the country.  They returned basically everyone and they play a fun style at a fast pace while constantly applying pressure to their opponents. 

The Golden Panthers rank 20th in scoring offense at 80.2 points per game.  They have been tremendous at home, going 7-0 while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game.  Off two straight road losses, the Golden Panthers return home highly motivated for a win tonight. 

UAB is coming off two straight home wins over Western Kentucky and Marshall.  Now they hit the road where the Blazers have gone 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS with their only win coming at Troy.  They lost to Charlotte by 7 and Old Dominion by 5 in their last two road games, two teams that aren’t as good as FIU. 

FIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Golden Panthers are 15-4 ATS in tier last 19 home games off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more.  FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Take Florida International Thursday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -1 

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets basically just have to win to cover tonight at home against Notre Dame.  I expect them to do just that with how well they are playing coming into this game. 

Despite facing a brutal schedule with four road games in their last five, the Yellow Jackets have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in those five games.  They upset Hawaii by 17 and UNC by 13 on the road and crushed Boston College by 19 on the road.  Their lone home game was against Duke, and they played them down to the wire only losing by 9 as 11.5-point dogs. 

Notre Dame has been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.  While the Fighting Irish are 10-6 SU, they are just 5-9-2 ATS this season.  They are 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their five games played away from home with their only win coming at Syracuse by a single point. 

The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs.  The Yellow Jackets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Georgia Tech is 40-18 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Notre Dame.  Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Take Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

I like the spot for Marquette Wednesday night.  They are coming off two straight losses to Providence and Seton Hall and will return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are 10-2 at home this season with double-digit victories over Villanova, Purdue and USC. 

Marquette is a tremendous shooting team that shoot 40% from 3-point range, which ranks 9th in the country.  Five of their top six scorers all shoot at least 37% from distance.  Xavier is a poor shooting team at 29.7% on 3-pointers, which ranks 315th in the country. 

The Musketeers’ poor shooting is a big reason they’ve been so inconsistent.  While they are 12-5 SU, they are just 4-12-1 ATS.  They have lost three of their last four including double-digits home losses to both Creighton (by 12) and Seton Hall (by 12) as favorites.  Marquette won both meetings last year by 18 points at home and by 5 points on the road. 

Marquette is 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less this season.  Xavier is 2-9 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Take Marquette Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State -10 

Two weeks have passed since Evansville placed coach Walter McCarty on leave to determine whether he violated Title IX.  The distractions have taken their toll on the Purple Aces as they have opened 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in MVC play, losing by an average of 17.3 points per game. 

Indiana State is a legitimate contender to win the Missouri Valley this season.  It’s a veteran team that returned four starters and has now gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Drake and Northern Iowa, two of the best teams in the conference. 

Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They beat Illinois State by 13 and Southern Illinois by 12 in their first two home games to open conference play.  Another double-digit win can be expected tonight. 

Indiana State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Evansville, including a 23-point home win last year.  The Purple Aces are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Wednesday games.  Evansville is 0-6 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season, while Indiana State is 9-2 ATS in home games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two years.  Roll with Indiana State Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -2.5 

The Georgia Bulldogs are highly motivated for a win tonight off two straight losses to two of the best teams in the country in Auburn and Kentucky.  Now they are back home tonight and hosting a Tennessee team they can handle. 

Georgia is 8-1 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game.  Their only home loss came to Kentucky.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  Georgia is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Tennessee. 

The Vols lost almost everyone from last year’s team that made a run in the NCAA Tournament.  They did return Lamaonte Turner, but now he’s out for the season.  His loss has been huge as he averages 12.3 points and 7.1 assists per game this season. 

The Vols are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games with their only wins coming against Jacksonville State, South Carolina (by 1) and Missouri.  They lost by 14 at home to LSU, by 20 at home to Wisconsin, by 4 at home to Memphis and by 12 at Cincinnati.  The Vols are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Bulldogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Bet Georgia Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -2.5 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs tonight.  They have been a disappointment compared to preseason expectations with just a 9-6 start despite returning four starters from a team that was very good last year. 

It’s safe to say the Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight against an absolutely brutal schedule to open SEC play.  They lost at home to unbeaten Auburn and on the road to very good Alabama and LSU teams.  This home game against Missouri is easily their best chance to get their first conference win to date. 

Missouri is in a letdown spot off an upset home win over Florida over the weekend.  That followed up a 12-point loss at Kentucky and a 10-point home loss to Tennessee, so it really came out of nowhere.  They Tigers also lost at home to Charleston Southern and on a neutral by double-digits to both Oklahoma and Butler.  I think they’re getting too much respect for that Florida win, which is by far their best victory of the season. 

Mississippi State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Missouri.  The Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Ben Howland is 15-5 ATS after losing three of their last four games as the coach of the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Tuesday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane -1 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under first-year head coach Ron Hunter.  He was great at IUPUI and Georgia State before and now he’s doing big things at Tulane already. 

Indeed, the Green Wave are off to a 10-6 start this season.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against the cream of the crop in the AAC.  They covered at Memphis as 15-point dogs, upset Cincinnati as 8-point home dogs, covered as 10-point dogs at UConn and upset Temple by 14 as 9-point road dogs.  The Green Wave are 6-0 at home this season and winning by 15.0 points per game. 

UCF lost all but one starter that helped them make some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year.  The Knights aren’t close to the same team they were last season.  They are just 9-7 with five straight losses coming in.  They lost at Houston by 15, but 4 at home to Temple and by 14 at home to Cincinnati.  That gives these teams a few common opponents that show Tulane is the superior squad. 

The Green Wave are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tulane is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Tulane Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +6.5 

Buzz Williams took the job at Texas A&M after turning around Virginia Tech.  And after a slow start to the season, Williams has the Aggies playing their best basketball of the year entering SEC play. 

Texas A&M has gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall.  Their only loss came on the road by 10 to Arkansas as 14.5-point dogs.  They beat Oregon State by 15 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Ole Miss by 10 as 3-point home dogs and crushed Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point road dogs. 

Now the Aggies are once again getting zero respect from oddsmakers as 6.5-point home dogs to LSU.  The Tigers are getting too much respect for their four-game winning streak, which features non-covers in narrow home wins over Arkansas by 2 and Mississippi State by 1 in their last two games coming in. 

Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons.  LSU is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.  The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Arizona/Oregon State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +4.5 

Head coach Wayne Tinkle is doing a great job at Oregon State.  He has the Beavers off to an 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS start this season.  And I believe the Beavers have a great chance to upset Arizona at home today. 

Oregon State has a great home-court advantage in going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in all home games this season.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Arizona State, so they’ll be motivated to bounce back tonight.  It was a letdown spot off their upset win as 7.5-point dogs at Colorado. 

Arizona is also 11-4, but the Wildcats have feasted on a home-heavy schedule.  They are 0-2 in their two true road games with losses at Baylor and Oregon.  They also lost to Gonzaga at home and to St. John’s on a neutral. 

Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons.  Oregon State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  Roll with Oregon State Sunday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +7.5 

The Bradley Braves are without their best player in Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG, 9.1 RPG) for the foreseeable future.  They are also without key role player Stephen Gabriel (4.0 PPG, 50% 3-pointers).  They are fade material for the foreseeable future until they get Childs back. 

Southern Illinois is playing too well to be catching 7.5 points from Bradley tonight.  The Salukis are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Illinois State by 12 and Valpo by 13 in their last two games coming in. 

Southern Illinois is 60-28 ATS in its last 88 road games after having won four of its last five games coming in.  Bradley is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by 4-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Bradley’s rebounding edge is definitely minimized with the loss of top rebounder Childs.  Roll with Southern Illinois Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -5.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and still undervalued.  They are 11-4 on the season with five straight wins and covers including home wins over Maryland and Georgetown as well as road wins over Xavier and DePaul.   

The Pirates have held all 15 opponents this season below their season average, which is a big reason they rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  In 6 of their 11 wins have had held their opponents to 10 or more points below their season averages. 

Marquette is 1-2 in true road games with their lone win at Kansas State.  They were blasted by 16 at Wisconsin and by 17 at Creighton and Seton Hall is better than both of those teams.  The Golden Eagles were just upset at home by Providence as well. 

The Pirates are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 7-1 ATS at home this season.  The Golden Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -3 

The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 12-3 start with all three of their losses coming on the road. 

The Nittany Lions are undervalued after their upset loss at Rutgers, which is also one of the most improved teams in the land.  But now Penn State is back home where it is 9-0 this season and winning by 20.6 points per game. 

Wisconsin was also upset by Illinois last time out, but that was at home.  The Badgers are 2-5 in all games played away from home with neutral court losses to the likes of St. Mary’s, Richmond and New Mexico, as well as true game road losses to NC State by 15 and Rutgers by 7. 

The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games off a loss.  The Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss.  Penn State is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Roll with Penn State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -6.5 

The Indiana State Sycamores are clearly one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  They had won eight straight prior to two tough road losses to Drake by 4 and Northern Iowa by 8, which are also among the best teams in the MVC. 

Now the Sycamores are back home where they were last seen beating Southern Illinois by 12.  Indiana State is 5-0 at home this season.  Now they take on a down Illinois State team that returned just one starter this year and is off to a 6-9 start. 

Illinois State is 0-7 in all games played away from home this season.  They lost by 12 at Southern Illinois, the same team that Indiana State beat by 12. The home team is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Indiana State won by 23 and by 30 in its last two home meetings with Illinois State. 

The Redbirds are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Indiana State Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +2 

The Providence Friars have turned the corner and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They blasted Texas by 22 and Georgetown by 16 at home, while also pulling road upset wins over DePaul and Marquette. 

Now the Friars are playing with a ton of confidence and will welcome the opportunity to face a Top 10 team in Butler in what should be a great home atmosphere for them.  It’s what I believe to be a fraudulent 14-1 Butler team that is nowhere near as good as their record. 

Providence is 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 meetings with Butler, including 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings.  Butler has played three true road games this season losing to Baylor and winning narrowly at St. John’s by 2 and by 9 over Ole Miss.  This is their toughest test since that loss to Baylor. 

Butler is 5-16 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons.  Providence is 7-1 SU at home this season.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with Providence Friday. 

15* BYU/St. Mary’s ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary’s -3 

The St. Mary’s Gaels are coming off a bad upset road loss to Pacific 99-107 as 8.5-point favorites on January 4th.  I think that loss is providing us with some value to pull the trigger on the Gaels as only 3-point home favorites over BYU tonight. 

The Gaels are still one of the best teams in all of college basketball.  They are 13-3 on the season and 7-1 at home.  They have wins over Wisconsin, Utah State, Arizona State and Nevada this season. 

BYU is 12-4 and getting too much respect for a six-game winning streak coming into this game.  They have played three true road games this year, losing at Utah and at Boise State while winning at Houston by 1 point.  St. Mary’s is better than all three of those teams. 

St. Mary’s is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine home meetings with BYU.  They beat the Cougars by 22 points at home last year.  BYU is 51-107-4 ATS in its last 162 games as an underdog and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a road dog.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The favorite is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Gaels are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with St. Mary’s Thursday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon -3.5 

The Oregon Ducks are one of the best teams in the country.  They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS this season and I think they aren’t getting the respect they deserve as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Arizona Wildcats tonight. 

Oregon has played the 33rd-toughest schedule in the country while ranking 7th in offensive efficiency and 66th in defensive efficiency.  They have wins ov er Memphis, Houston, Seton Hall, Michigan and Utah.  Their three losses have come to Gonzaga, UNC and Colorado. 

Arizona has taken advantage of a much easier schedule.  They have played just one true road game all season, which resulted in a loss to Baylor.  They also lost to St. John’s and Gonzaga on a neutral.  They lack impressive wins as their best wins have come against Illinois and Arizona State and both were at home. 

Oregon is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Arizona.  The Wildcats are 1-11 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  The Ducks are 22-4 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Oregon is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 home games.  Bet Oregon Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulane +11.5 

Ron Hunter has won everywhere he has gone.  He had very successful stints at IUPUI and Georgia State and now he has already turned around this Tulane program in his first season on the job thanks to recruiting some great transfers. 

The Green Wave are 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS this season and continue to be one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They showed that here recently giving Memphis a run on the road as 15-point dogs and upsetting Cincinnati at home as 8-point dogs in their first two AAC games. 

Now the Green Wave are catching a whopping 11.5 points from Connecticut tonight, which is simply too much.  UConn has opened 0-2 in AAC play losing by 16 at Cincinnati and by 15 at South Florida.  They may come back and win their first conference game tonight, but asking them to cover 11.5 points is asking too much. 

Tulane is 12-2 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games over the last two seasons.  The Green Wave are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Tulane is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games overall.  The Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Roll with Tulane Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +5.5 

This is the ultimate ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Iowa State Cyclones.  They lost to Florida A&M as a 25-point favorite two games back.  But they didn’t have their best player in Tyrese Haliburton. 

Haliburton returned for their Big 12 opener against TCU and promptly posted a triple-double with 22 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists.  He means everything to this team.  But they lost 79-81 (OT) at TCU as 4-point dogs only after a banked 3 at the buzzer by the Horned Frogs. 

Now the Cyclones return home highly motivated for a win.  And no team has played Kansas tougher than Iowa State in Big 12 play in recent years.  The Cyclones are 7-6 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Kansas.  Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places to play in the country and Kansas has had a hard time getting any kind of margin on the road in this series. 

Iowa State is much better than its 7-6 record as the Cyclones are 348th out of 353 teams in KenPom’s luck factor, which indicates how lucky a team is to have the record that they have.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now as a result. 

Iowa State is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Kansas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games.  Steve Prohm is 15-6 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Iowa State.  Take Iowa State Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest +7 

Danny Manning has these Wake Forest Demon Deacons playing some great basketball right now.  They have won three straight which includes an upset home win over Xavier as 6-point dogs and an upset road win over Pitt as 6.5-point dogs. 

Florida State is also playing great right now with six consecutive wins.  But this is obviously a letdown spot for the Seminoles after pulling the upset at Louisville as 6-point dogs last time out.  I think they fall flat here against Wake Forest and will have a hard time winning this game, let alone covering the 7-point spread. 

Wake has covered its last two home games against Florida State, both as underdogs.  The Demon Deacons have only played five of their 13 games at home this season.  They are 4-1 at home with their only loss to NC State.  They have played the 43rd-toughest schedule in the country so they are battle-tested. 

Florida State is 29-58 ATS in its last 87 games after having won eight or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a. Winning record.  Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State -1 

The Kansas State Wildcats return home highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost three of their last four coming in all by 6 points or fewer.  Two were on neutral courts to solid Mississippi State and Saint Louis teams as well as a 5-point loss at Oklahoma as 7-point dogs. 

Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 6-1 this season and winning by 14.2 points per game.  They host a TCU team that has played a ridiculously easy schedule.  In fact, it will be the first true road game for TCU this season.  They’ve only played two games away from home which were both on neutrals with a loss to Clemson and a win against Wyoming. 

Kansas State is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with TCU.  The Hornets Frogs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 Big 12 games, while the Wildcats are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 Big 12 games.  TCU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a win.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday. 

15* Baylor/Texas Tech ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have looked the part of a national championship contender once again this season when healthy.  They have won five straight coming in, which includes their 70-57 win as 7.5-point dogs of then-No. 1 Louisville on a neutral and their 85-50 trouncing of Oklahoma State in their Big 12 opener. 

Baylor is ranked 4th in the country, but it's a fraudulent ranking.  They have feasted on an easy schedule with all of their tough games at home or on a neutral.  They have played two true road games, losing to Washington and only beating Coastal Carolina by 12.  This is by far their toughest test of the season Tuesday night. 

Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 21.4 points per game.  The Red Raiders are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.  The home team has won six straight in this series and is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Texas Tech Tuesday. 

15* Villanova/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Creighton -1.5 

This is the best Creighton team that Greg McDermott has had in recent memory.  The Bluejays are off to a 12-3 start this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in all of college basketball. 

Indeed, the Bluejays have won 15 straight home games dating back to last season and are 11-0 at home this season while winning by 17.6 points per game.  They beat Marquette by 17 in their last home games, the same Marquette team that Villanova just lost to by 11 on the road. 

Villanova is a very young team that is starting two freshmen for the first time since 2002.  The Wildcats are just 4-3 SU & 1-6 ATS in their seven games played away from home this year.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games with a 25-point loss at Ohio, a failure to cover at St. Joe’s and that 11-point loss at Marquette. 

Villanova is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.  Creighton is 11-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last three years.  They are winning by 20.5 points per game in this spot.  The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Take Creighton Tuesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake -1 

The Drake Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference this year.  They are off to an 11-4 start including a perfect 8-0 record at home where they are winning by 17.5 points per game.  They should be a bigger home favorite against Loyola-Chicago here. 

Loyola-Chicago is 2-1 in true road games with a blowout loss to Furman by 24 and a narrow win over Valparaiso by 3 as 3-point favorites.  They also won at Ball State.  This will be Loyola-Chicago’s toughest road test of the season thus far. 

Drake is 30-12-2 ATS in its last 44 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 home games.  The Ramblers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Loyola-Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Drake Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois -1 

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  It’s Year 3 of this rebuilding project for head coach Brad Underwood and the payoffs are starting to show with this veteran group that returned four starters this year. 

The Fighting Illini are off to a 9-5 start against a very tough schedule.  They have gone 8-1 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 22.5 points per game, and I think it will be a raucous atmosphere at Illinois tonight.  They beat Michigan 71-62 in their lone home game against a Big Ten opponent this season. 

Purdue lost a lot from the team that made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year.  The Boilermakers are also 9-5, but they have some really bad losses.  They lost by 14 to Nebraska, by 9 to Butler, by 10 to Marquette and at home to Texas.  They also lost to Florida State on a neutral. 

Purdue usually has a rebounding edge against everyone they play, but they won’t against Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are averaging 12 more boards than their opponents this season as one of the best rebounding teams in the nation.  And after shooting just 29.3% in a loss at Michigan State last time out, the Fighting Illini can’t possibly shoot as poorly at home this time around. 

Purdue is 4-15 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last three seasons.  The Boilermakers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Fighting Illini are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games off an ATS loss.  Bet Illinois Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island -2 

The Rhode Island Rams are coming off a bad upset road loss to Brown as 7.5-point favorites.  It was by far their worse performance of the season.  Their other three losses came to LSU, West Virginia and Maryland all on the road. 

Now the Rams are back home and highly motivated for a victory.  This is a veteran Rams team that I’ve been backing a lot because they returned all five starters.  And Rhode Island is 6-0 at home this season. 

Richmond is 11-3, and while that record looks nice, it has come against the 219th-ranked schedule in the country.  Rhode Island has played the 72nd-toughest schedule, a difference of nearly 150 spots in strength of schedule.  I believe playing the tougher schedule will benefit the Rams heading into conference play today. 

Rhode Island is 8-1 ATS in home games off two consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games off an ATS loss.  Rhode Island has won its last two meetings with Richmond by 18 points at home and by 11 points on the road.  Roll with Rhode Island Sunday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +8 

Ron Hunter is quickly turning around this Tulane program just as he did at Georgia State and IUPUI before.  It’s a Green Wave team that got some great transfers and is one of the most improved teams in the country under Hunter. 

Tulane is 8-5 this season and highly motivated for a win off three straight losses by 1 to Akron, by 4 to Towson and by 11 to Memphis.  If they lose today to Cincinnati, it will certainly go down to the wire. 

Cincinnati lost head coach Mick Cronin and has struggled this season to an 8-5 start.  They lost to Iowa, Colgate, Xavier, Bowling Green and Ohio State.  They also nearly lost to Illinois State (won by 1), Valpo (won by 4) and UNLV (won by 7).  It’s not a team that can be trusted to go on the road and win by 8-plus points against a quality opponent in Tulane here. 

Cincinnati only has two days to get ready for Tulane after last playing on January 1st, while Tulane has four days to prepare for Cincinnati after last playing on December 30th.   

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  Tulane is 11-2 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last two years.  The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off an ATS win.  Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite.  Roll with Tulane Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +10.5 

It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Kansas Jayhawks, who have covered six of their last seven games coming in.  Now they are laying double-digits to a West Virginia team that can muck it up and keep this game close with their style of play. 

West Virginia is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Mountaineers are 11-1 this season with their only loss coming by two points 68-70 at St. John’s.  They have impressive wins over Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Pitt and Ohio State this season.  Take West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5 

Penn State has the best team they’ve had in years.  They are off to an 11-2 start this season with one of their losses coming on the road at Ohio State.  They other was a 2-point loss to Ole Miss on a neutral after they blew a 20-plus point lead. 

The wins have been impressive.  The Nittany Lions have beaten Maryland, Alabama, Wake Forest and Yale at home as well as a a road win at Georgetown and a neutral win over Syracuse.  They’ve played a brutal schedule and have proven themselves against it. 

Now they take on Iowa in what is technically a neutral site game but the Nittany Lions will have home-court advantage due to being played in Philadelphia.  It’s an Iowa team that has also been impressive, but they have lost when they have stepped up in class.  They lost by 15 at home to DePaul, by 10 at San Diego State and by 12 at Michigan. 

Iowa is 1-8 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Penn State is 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two years.  The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Nittany Loins are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Roll with Penn State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on DePaul -2.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the DePaul Blue Demons.  They got off to a hot start this season but have cooled off since, going 0-3 ATS in their last three games.  They are coming off a loss to Seton Hall, which is one of the best teams in the country. 

Now the Blue Demons are back home against a Providence team they should handle.  Providence is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  That includes neutral site losses to Long Beach State, College of Charleston and Florida as well as road losses to Northwestern and Rhode Island.  They were favored in four of those five losses and lost by 32 to Florida. 

The Friars are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games off an ATS win.  Providence is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games.  DePaul is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Blue Demons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Bet DePaul Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette PK 

I like backing Marquette at home today where they just have to win this game to cover against Villanova.  The Golden Eagles are 7-0 at home this season and winning by 22.1 points per game. 

Villanova is just 1-5 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  In their two true road games, they failed to cover as 15-point favorites at St. Joe’s and lost 51-76 at Ohio State. 

Marquette is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive overs.  The Wildcats are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.  Take Marquette Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -7 

The Oklahoma Sooners get Kristian Doolittle back from suspension today for their Big 12 opener against Kansas State.  I expect them to roll at home today, where they are 5-0 on the season. 

Kansas State is way down from last year with all they lost.  They are just 7-5 SU & 4-8 ATS in all games, including 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games.  It will be just their second true road game of the season.  They lost on a neutral to Pitt, Bradley, Mississippi State and Saint Louis, four teams that aren’t as good as Oklahoma. 

The home team is 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Kansas State is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

15* Wisconsin/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -7 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a loss to West Virginia.  Now they return home highly motivated for a win against the Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten play Friday night.  Look for them to make easy work of the Badgers. 

The Buckeyes are legitimately one of the best teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their nine home games this season while outscoring opponents by 27.0 points per game.  They beat Penn State by 32 in their lone conference home game. 

Wisconsin is starting to get some respect for its three-game winning streak.  But the Badgers are just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in all games played away from home this year.  They are scoring just 58.7 points per game on the highway.  They lost to New Mexico, Richmond and St. Mary’s on a neutral and lost by 15 at NC State and by 7 at Rutgers. 

Ohio State is 8-0 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take Ohio State Friday. 

20* Oregon/Colorado ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Colorado +1.5 

The Colorado Buffaloes have one of the best home-court advantages in the Pac-12 and in all of college basketball for that matter.  They returned all five starters this year are are off to an 11-2 start, including a 6-1 record at home.  They will be highly motivated for a win tonight with 4th-ranked Oregon coming to town. 

The Oregon Ducks are certainly one of the better teams in the country as well at 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS on the season.  I just think this is a great spot to fade them, especially when you consider Colorado is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with Oregon.  They beat Oregon 73-51 as nearly identical 1-point home dogs last season. 

Colorado is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games lined +3 to PK.  The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Colorado is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 home games overall.  The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Colorado Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

The No. 20 Dayton Flyers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers for their Top 25 ranking.  They have opened 11-2 but have now failed to cover three of their last four.  I think it’s time to continue ’selling high’ on the Flyers tonight. 

They should not be laying double-digits on the road against a solid La Salle team in this conference rivalry.  It’s a La Salle team that has been one of the most underrated in the country and continues to fly under the radar.  The Explorers are 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS this season. 

La Salle only lost by 5 to Temple as 6-point dogs and by 11 on the road to Villanova as 18-point dogs to show that they can play with good teams.  They will prove it again tonight as they give Dayton a run for its money at home.  And they have the rest and preparation advantage.  The Explorers come in on four days’ rest, while the Flyers come in on only two days’ rest. 

La Salle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 60 points or less in three straight games coming in.  Dayton is 9-22 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  La Salle is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  The Explorers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Take La Salle Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -7.5 

The Rhode Island Rams are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this season and are off to an 8-3 start.  Their only three losses all came on the road against Maryland, West Virginia & LSU.  They beat Alabama by 14 and Providence by 14 as well. 

Rhode Island should handle this Brown team that is just 5-6 on the season.  All six losses for Brown have come by 11 points or more.  They lost by 21 to Sacred Heart, by 12 to UMass-Lowell, by 20 to Navy, by 16 to Stony Brook, by 11 to St. John’s and by 25 to Duke.  Those results alone show they can’t hang with Rhode Island.  But their five wins have come against Bryant (by 2), Canisius (by 7), Quinnipiac (by 2), New Jersey Tech and Merrimack. 

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Brown) - after scoring 50 points or less against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in two straight games are 54-24 (69.2%) ATS since 1997.   

The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games off an ATS win.  Roll with Rhode Island Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +13 

The San Diego State Aztecs head into the new year overvalued due to their 13-0 SU & 8-3 ATS records.  Now they’re laying 13 points here to Fresno State, which is simply too much. 

Fresno State heads into 2020 undervalued at 4-9 SU & 4-6 ATS.  But the Bulldogs have been a lot more competitive than their record would indicate.  Indeed, seven of their nine losses came by 7 points or less.  The only exceptions were a 10-point loss to St. Mary’s on a neutral and a 14-point loss at Oregon. 

Fresno State hasn’t lost by more than 12 points in any of its last 12 meetings with San Diego State.  That makes for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 13-point spread.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Roll with Fresno State Wednesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +1.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on them and fade them here as road favorites at Providence. 

The Providence Friars got off to a slow start this season, but they rebounded with a 70-48 home win over Texas as 1-point favorites last time out.  And now they’ve had nine days to get ready for Georgetown after last playing on December 21st.  Meanwhile, Georgetown only has two days to get ready for Providence after facing American on December 28th. 

Providence wants revenge on Georgetown after losing both meetings to them last year.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Second-leading scorer Mac McClung (15.5 PPG) is questionable to play for the Hoyas tonight. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Providence) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Providence Tuesday. 

15* Seton Hall/DePaul FS1 ANNIHILATOR on DePaul -1 

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to a 12-1 start and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve as only 1-point home favorites here against the Seton Hall Pirates. 

DePaul already has impressive road wins over the likes of Iowa as 9.5-point dogs, Boston College as PK and Minnesota as 4-point dogs.  They also beat Texas Tech at home with their only loss coming to a solid Buffalo team. 

Seton Hall has played just three true road games this season and lost two of them to Rutgers and Iowa State.  And the Pirates could be without their best player again tonight in Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), who is questionable with a concussion.  They’ll be without 3rd-leading scorer Sando Mamukelashvilli (10.9 PPG) as well. 

Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  DePaul is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Seton Hall.  They won both meetings outright as underdogs last year.  Roll with DePaul Monday.