Winning Sports Picks

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are loaded this season.  They went 19-12 last year and returned 70% of their scoring.  Back to lead the way are seniors Brady Manek (14.4 PPG last year) and Austin Reaves (14.7 PPG).

You could say the Sooners got off to a great start this season with a 105-66 win as 15-point favorites over UTSA on Thursday.  And now they are ready to take down a rebuilding TCU team that is very fortunate to be 4-0 this season.

Indeed, the Horned Frogs are 4-0 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They only beat Tulsa by 5, Liberty by 4 and Northwestern State by 6 as 18.5-point favorites.  Now they take a big step up in class here and all that they lost in the offseason will take its toll.

TCU lost 11 of its final 14 games last season.  They lost the program’s third all-time leading scorer in Desmond Bane.  They lost PG Kendric Davis in the transfer portal to SMU.  That is proving to be a huge loss as Davis is averaging 21.3 PPG and 8.0 APG through four games with the Mustangs.

The Sooners are 6-0 SU in their last six meetings with TCU.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Horned Frogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as underdogs.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -19.5

The Virginia Cavaliers were a Top 5 team coming into the season.  But they were upset 60-61 as 15-point favorites over San Francisco.  They are undervalued as a result of that loss. Their other two games have been dominant with an 89-54 win over Towson State and a 76-51 win over St. Francis.

Now the Cavaliers should make easy work of a rebuilding Kent State team tonight.  The Golden Flashes lost five of their top six scorers from last season.  They return just one player who averaged at least 4.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG last season.  And they will be playing just their second game of the season after a cake walk game against Point Park.

The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Virginia is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That early wake up call in a loss to San Francisco will keep the Cavaliers focuses in the immediate future to put teams like Kent State away for 40 minutes.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Niagara +20

Head coach Greg Paulus, the former Duke standout, is in his second year at Niagara.  I expect big things from him and this team this year.  They return all five starters from last year and four of their top five scorers.

Syracuse has been dealing with Covid-19 issues and it showed in their opener against Bryant.  They had just one day of practice before nearly getting upset by Bryant in an 85-84 win as 22.5-point favorites.  Niagara is much better than Bryant and should not be catching 20 points here.

Last year, Syracuse only beat a bad Niagara team 71-57 as 22.5-point favorites.  And I have no doubt this Niagara team is way better than that team, while Syracuse is down this year.  Especially now that 6-10 senior Bourama Sidibe went down with a torn meniscus against Bryant.

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last three seasons.  The Orange are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite.  Roll with Niagara Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas-Little Rock ML +100

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Little Rock has been impressive this season in a 2-1 start despite being underdogs in two games already.  They did lost 70-77 as 5.5-point dogs to Greensboro, but came back to beat a very good Duquesne team 76-66 as 6.5-point dogs that just upset Greensboro 81-61 last night.  Little Rock has shot 50% or better in each of its last two games and is starting to get in a groove offensively.

Winthrop also beat Greensboro 75-67 as a 6-point dog in their opener.  But this will be just their 2nd game overall and their 2nd game in 3 days.  Little Rock has had the last two days off, so they will be the fresher and more prepared team here.  And it’s worth noting Little Rock went 2-1 against common opponents that Winthrop went 0-2 against last year.  Little Rock outscored those teams by 9.7 points per game while Winthrop was outscored by 3.5 points per game.

Little Rock is 6-0 ATS off an upset wins an underdog over the last two seasons.  Little Rock is 10-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  Winthrop is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock on the Money Line Thursday.

20* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +9

The West Virginia Mountaineers returned four starters this season and are loaded.  They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins over South Dakota State, VCU and Western Kentucky with are three of the better mid-major teams in the country this year.

Gonzaga is overvalued in this matchup due to its No. 1 national ranking.  They did beat two big names in Kansas and Auburn, but those are two rebuilding teams.  And they allowed 90 points and 53.2% shooting to Kansas, a Kansas team that just shot 30% against Kentucky last night.  And Auburn needed overtime to beat St. Joe’s and lost outright to UCF, 55-63 in its two games outside Gonzaga.

It’s also worth noting the Bulldogs are dealing with Covid-19 issues which has affected their practices.  Bob Huggins called up contacts at ESPN just to get into this tournament specifically to face Gonzaga, so you know he’s confident his team can compete here.  I think they’ll be in this game for 40 minutes with a chance to win outright in the end.

The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Duquesne ML +115

The Duquesne Dukes have improved every season under head coach Keith Dambrot.  They won 21 games last season.  Now they have four starters and six of their top eight scorers back from a year ago and will be a real contender in the Atlantic 10 this season.  Forwards Marcus Weathers (14.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG last year) and Michael Hughes (10.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG) will be problems for everyone this year.

I think the Dukes are being undervalued here because they were upset by Arkansas-Little Rock in their opener as 6.5-point favorites.  But that’s a Little Rock team that returned all five starters from a year ago.  And UNC-Greensboro only beat Little Rock 77-70 for a common opponent, and they’re getting too much credit for that win.

Greensboro went on to get upset 67-75 by Winthrop as a 6-point favorite yesterday.  So now Greensboro is at a huge rest disadvantage because they will be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, while Duquesne had yesterday off.

Greensboro is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  The Spartans are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing their 3rd game in 5 days.  The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  Roll with Duquesne Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +4

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

Western Kentucky has played a brutal schedule thus far and has gotten through with flying colors.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS (3-0 if bet early number) against Northern Iowa, Memphis and West Virginia.  They won and covered against the first two, then gave WVU all it could handle in a 64-70 loss as closing 5.5-point dogs.  Hollingsworth (19.0 PPG) and Bassey (15.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 3.7 BPG) have been a handful thus far.

Louisville is 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS against a much softer schedule.  They have blowout wins over Evansville and Prairie View A&M but barely beat Seton Hall 71-70 as 5.5-point favorites.  The Cardinals are missing several players due to injury, including center Malik Williams, who is recovering from foot surgery.  Samuell Williamson, another center, is day-to-day with a dislocated toe.  They aren’t going to have an answer for Bussey inside here.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  Western Kentucky is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog.  The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Kentucky +17

Eastern Kentucky is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They beat North Florida 80-67 as 1-point favorites and Charleston Southern 60-50 as 6-point favorites.  They play at the seventh-fasted pace in the country and have already forced 46 turnovers in two games.

I think that pace will give Xavier a problem here.  Xavier will be playing its 4th game in 6 days and will have a hard time keeping pace.  The Musketeers are tired, and they are very fortunate to be 3-0, which has them overvalued.  They hit a game-winner with 5.4 seconds left to beat Bradley 51-50 as 10-point favorites, and they needed an 8-2 run to close to top Toledo 76-73 as a 9.5-point favorite.

Eastern Kentucky is a lot better shooting team than they have shown.  It’s impressive that they have two double-digit victories when you consider they have shot just 9-for-56 (16.1%) from 3-point range.  That just shows you how good their defense has been.  They will shoot it better against Xavier here.

Eastern Kentucky is 58-36 ATS in its last 94 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Xavier is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games over the past two years.  The Colonels are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Colonels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  Eastern Kentucky is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Bet Eastern Kentucky Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +8.5

The Richmond Spiders went 24-7 last season and return all five starters.  I like their experience here early in the season against a Kentucky Wildcats team that is playing 10 newcomers.

PG Jacob Gilyard was 10th nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio last year and led the nation with 3.19 steals per game.  Senior Nathan Cayo had 23 points and made all 10 of his field goal attempts in an 82-64 win over Morehead State Friday.

Kentucky started four freshmen and senior transfer Olivier Starr from Wake Forest against Morehead State.  They have seven freshmen and three transfers among their newcomers.  And this test against veteran Richmond will be much more difficult than the Morehead State game was for them.

Richmond is 8-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 0-6 ATS in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  Bet Richmond Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Villanova -8.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team in their opener.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  They Wildcats are a legit national title contender in 2020.

They came back and topped a nationally ranked Arizona State team 83-74 as 6-point favorites.  Robinson-Earl showed out with 28 points, while Moore (16), Daniels (14) and Gillespie (11) helped lead the way once again.  These four players are a real handful for any team.

Virginia Tech is picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC by most publications, and for good reason.  They lost their best player in Landers Nolley to Memphis via transfer.  And the transition from Buzz Williams to Mike Young as head coach wasn’t a great one.  They went just 2-13 ATS over their final 15 games and finished 6-15 ATS in ACC play.

The Hokies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs.  The Wildcats are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games.  Roll with Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

The UCLA Bruins will be looking to bounce back from a bad loss to San Diego State in which they were 3-point favorites and lost 58-73 after shooting just 39.5% from the floor and committing 15 turnovers.  They will be much sharper here against Pepperdine, a team that is now getting too much respect after beating UC-Irvine 86-72 as 4-point favorites in their opener.  So it’s a good ‘buy low’ on UCLA and ’sell high’ on Pepperdine situation here.

The Bruins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  UCLA is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  Pepperdine is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take UCLA Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +8

Western Kentucky went 21-10 last season despite their best player in Charles Bassey being limited to just 10 games.  He averaged 14.6 points, 10 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 2018-19 while shooting 62.7% from the field, 45% from 3-point range and 76.9% from the charity stripe.  He’s back as the Hilltoppers return all five starters from last season.

Davidson transfer Luke Frampton should be much healthier this season after scoring 10.3 points and shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.  Carson Williams shot 39% from 3-point range last year while averaging 14 points, 6.6 boards and 1.1 steals.  He scored at least 10 points in 18 of their final 20 games last year and is a star alongside Bassey.

Tavern Hollingsworth is one of the best guards in Conference USA after averaging 16.6 points, 4.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game last year.  Lipscomb transfer Kenny Cooper is more of a true point guard and should flourish with all the talent around him after averaging 9.8 points and 4.5 assists last year.  Jordan Rawls (7.9 PPG) is back as is Josh Anderson (10.1 PPG).  This team is simply loaded.

And they’ve shown it in their first two games.  They beat Northern Iowa 93-87 as a 3.5-point favorite in their opener.  And yesterday they backed it up with a 75-69 upset win as 4-point dogs over Memphis.  That’s a Memphis team that might be the most talented in the country.  And now they are getting zero respect as 8-point dogs to West Virginia today in a game they could win outright.

The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Western Kentucky is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Villanova/ASU ESPN Late-Night DESSERT on Villanova -4.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team yesterday.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  More concerning is that Arizona State struggled to put away a rebuilding Rhode Island team 94-88 yesterday. 

The Wildcats are 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss.  The Sun Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Villanova is a legit national title contender and should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins finished 11-3 over their final 14 games last season while allowing 72 or fewer points in 12 of those games.  Head coach Mick Cronin implemented a new style in his first season that had UCLA limiting possessions.  Now Cronin welcomes back all five starters and each of the fop five scorers from a year ago.

PG Tyger Campbell averaged 8.3 points and 5.0 assists last season.  Fellow freshman Jaime Jaquez Jr. did it all with 8.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game.  Leading scorers Chris Smith is back after averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds.  Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang was a Top-40 prospect coming out of high school and saw limited minutes as a freshman, but he shot 50% from 3-point range over his final 11 games.  Jalen Hill returns as the team’s leading rebounder with 6.9 boards and 1.1 blocks per game.

San Diego State was a nice story last year in going 30-2 and nearly getting through the regular season unbeaten.  But they lose three starters from that team, including Mountain West Player of the Year Malachi Flynn.  Tanni Wetzell transferred to Vanderbilt and K.J. Feagin is pursuing a professional career in Germany.  Roll with UCLA Wednesday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston -22

The Houston Cougars made a deep run into the NCAA Tournament two years ago before 'settling' for a 24-8 season last year.  Now the Cougars return their entire backcourt in Caleb Mills, De’Jon Jarreau and Quentin Grimes.  

Both Jarreau and Grimes are future NBA players, and Mills compliments them well.  Head coach Kelvin Sampson got a great big man transfer in Reggie Chaney from Arkansas.  It’s easy to see why for the first time in 37 years that the Houston Cougars (No. 17) open the season as a Top 25 team.

Lamar is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games with a total set of 135 to 139.5.  The Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Houston Wednesday.

20* 2020 CBB Season Opener on Arkansas-Little Rock -12

Arkansas Little-Rock returns all 5 starters from a team that went 21-10 SU & 21-10 ATS last year.  Forward Kris Bankston led the nation in field goal percentage in 2018-19 returns after missing much of last season to essentially give them six starters back.

PG Markquis Nowell led the Trojans with 17.2 points, 4.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season while also shooting 39.1% from 3-point range and 87.9% from the FT line.  Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Ruot Monyyong is back after averaging 11.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and 2.0 steals per game last year.

Ben Coupet and Nikola Maria both made better than 33% of their 3-pointers last year and combined to average 19.6 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game.  SMU transfer CJ White shot 35.5% from 3-point range last season.

Prairie View A&M returns just one starter this season and loses each of its top five scorers from a year ago.  So we have one team here returning all five starters and one team basically losing all five.  Little Rock should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Wednesday.

20* UNC/Syracuse ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -3 

I was on North Carolina last night in their 78-56 beat down of Virginia Tech.  And I’m on them again as short favorites over Syracuse for many of the same reasons.  The Tar Heels have a huge home-court advantage as evidenced last night with this tournament being played in Greensboro, NC. 

The Tar Heels have both Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) and Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) back healthy, something they didn’t have earlier this season.  The result has been a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS run in their last five games overall with all four wins by 6 points or more. 

That includes their 92-79 road win at Syracuse as 5-point dogs on February 29th.  It should be more of the same here as the Tar Heels are by far the superior team when healthy.  And North Carolina is now 9-0 SU & 5-2-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with Syracuse. 

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Orange are 2-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  Syracuse is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Bet North Carolina Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +9.5 

The Vanderbilt Commodores have been grossly undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes outright wins over Alabama as 12-point road dogs and South Carolina as 5-point home dogs in their final two games of the regular season. 

Now, Vanderbilt is catching 9.5 points in a neutral court game against Arkansas in the opening round of the SEC Tournament.  But this is far from neutral as there will be a big home-court advantage for the Commodores with this SEC Tournament being played in Nashville, TN. 

While Arkansas has been crushing it at home this season, the Razorbacks have been awful away from home.  They are just 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS in all road/neutral games this season.  And they were beaten by two of the worst teams in the SEC in Georgia and Texas A&M by 10 and 8, respectively, in their last two road games. 

Arkansas is 0-7 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in road games after going over the total in their previous game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Commodores.  Take Vanderbilt Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6.5 

Kansas City, Missouri is known as Hilton South because Iowa State fans always travel well for the Big 12 Tournament.  It’s no coincidence that the Cyclones have won four of the past six Big 12 tournaments, which is a remarkable feat. 

Sure, Iowa State is down this year, but you can never count them out in the Big 12 Tournament.  And getting +6.5 with the Cyclones in this opener against Oklahoma State is simply too many points.  The Cyclones will get Prentiss Nixon back from injury, and there’s a good chance they get Rasir Bolton back after he missed the last regular season game with a concussion. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Oklahoma State, which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in its final three games of the season.  But those three wins were against three of the worst teams in the conference in Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas.  So the Cyclones want revenge from their 61-73 loss at Oklahoma State on February 29th less than two weeks ago. 

Oklahoma State is 1-9 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday. 

15* VA Tech/UNC ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -4 

The UNC Tar Heels are the most underrated team in the country.  They have so many close losses this season and have battled through injury all year.  But they are finally pretty healthy heading into the ACC Tournament and it has shown with how they have played down the stretch. 

The Tar Heels are the team nobody wants to face in the ACC Tournament.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with wins over NC State by 6 at home, Syracuse by 13 on the road and Wake Forest by 10 at home.  Their only loss came by 13 at Duke as 10.5-point dogs in a game that was close until the final two minutes. 

Now UNC wants revenge on Virginia Tech from a 77-79 (2 OT) road loss on January 22nd.  But they didn’t have Cole Anthony (19.6 PPG) or Brandon Robinson (11.9 PPG) in that contest.  Anthony and Robinson have been back down the stretch, though Robinson is questionable tonight with a head injury. 

The Hokies have been woeful since that double-OT win over the Tar Heels.  They are just 2-10 SU & 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall with nine of those losses by 4 points or more, including five by double-digits. 

The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Hokies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with North Carolina Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois -3.5 

Home-court advantage has been huge for both of these teams this season.  And it has been important in this head-to-head series as well as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Illinois wants revenge form a tough 65-72 road loss at Iowa on February 2nd in which the Fighting Illini blew a halftime lead.  They also blew a halftime lead at Ohio State in their last game adding to their motivation.  The Fighting Illini are 14-3 SU at home this season and will get their revenge. 

Iowa is just 2-7 SU in true road games in Big Ten play with its only wins coming at Northwestern and Minnesota, which are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or more and the seven losses are by an average of 12.4 points per game. 

Iowa is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home loss over the last three seasons, losing by 14.3 points per game in this spot.  The Hawkeyes are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Fighting Illini are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Illinois Sunday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia PK 

Death, taxes and Virginia being underrated every year.  All the Cavaliers have done is go 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 73-80 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  Malik Williams (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG) had 13 points and 6 rebounds in that first meeting, but he won’t be playing today due to injury. 

Now, the Cavaliers get their chance at revenge for their lone loss during this stretch.  They host Louisville Saturday and just have to win to cover.  Considering Virginia is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings, and 5-0 SU in the last five home meetings, that won’t be a problem. 

Louisville is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three road games.  It lost at Georgia Tech by 6 as 6-point favorites, at Clemson by 15 as 4.5-point favorites and at Florida State by 15 as 2.5-point dogs.  The Cardinals are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers on the road today. 

Virginia is 13-1 SU off a win by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 1-6 SU in road games after allowing 55 points or less over the last two years.  Roll with Virginia Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri -1 

The Missouri Tigers have been a very tough out at home this season.  They are 11-4 SU at home with some impressive wins against some of the top teams in the ACC.  Now they take down Alabama on Senior Day. 

Missouri is 4-1 SU in its last five home games with its only loss to Mississippi State by 4.  The Tigers beat Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia.  They also beat Florida earlier this season at home. 

Alabama is coming off an ugly 79-87 home loss to Vanderbilt as 12-point favorites.  They’ve been playing without John Petty Jr. (15.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) who remains questionable with an elbow injury.  But I like Missouri whether or not he plays as the Crimson Tide are just 4-7 SU in true road games this season. 

Plays against road dogs SU after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 48-11 (81.4%) SU since 1997.  The Tigers basically just have to win SU to cover this short number.  Take Missouri Saturday.

20* Kansas/Texas Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Texas Tech +3.5 

After going losing three straight, including a 68-71 (OT) loss at Baylor as 7-point dogs last time out, Texas Tech needs a signature win to assure they make the NCAA Tournament.  They get that opportunity today hosting Kansas. 

Texas Tech will also be out for revenge from a tough 75-78 loss at Kansas as 8.5-point dogs on February 1st in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Jayhawks on the road, so they certainly can beat them at home. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Jayhawks, who have won 15 straight games coming in while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.  But they failed to cover their last two in a 4-point win at Kansas State as 11.5-point favorites and a 9-point home win over TCU as 16-point favorites, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They already clinched at least a share of the Big 12 title so they certainly won’t be as motivated as Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders are 13-3 SU in home games this season.  Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 18.7 PPG in in this spot.  The Red Raiders are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  Take Texas Tech Saturday. 

20* Kentucky/Florida CBS No-Brainer on Florida -2.5 

Kentucky has already wrapped up the SEC regular season title.  They also already beat Florida 65-59 at home two weeks ago on February 22nd.  I could see them being really flat today. 

That won’t be the case for the Gators, who are out for revenge and still trying to make sure they make the NCAA Tournament.  The Gators are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses both coming on the road to Tennessee by 5 and Kentucky by 6. 

Florida has been dominant at home here of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 points per game.  That includes a 15-point win over LSU and a 14-point win over Arkansas. 

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Gators are 11-3 SU at home this season.  Bet Florida Saturday. 

15* Wisconsin/Indiana ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2 

The Indiana Hoosiers are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘Last Four In’ line.  They’ll be highly motivated for a home win over the Wisconsin Badgers today that would likely put them into the big dance. 

Indiana is a sensational 15-3 SU at home this season.  They basically just have to win to cover, and they want revenge from a bad loss at Wisconsin in their first meeting this season.  The Badgers are just 5-9 SU in all road/neutral games this season. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I could easily see them letting up here in their regular season finale as they have already earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament thanks to this seven-game winning streak. 

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less this season.  Indiana is 35-19 ATS in its last 56 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1 

I love the spot for Northern Illinois tonight.  It’s Senior Day so this will be the Huskies’ final home game.  And they want revenge from a 59-63 road loss at Ball State as 7-point dogs on February 11th. 

I expect the Huskies to get their revenge at home this time around.  Northern Illinois is 11-3 SU at home this season with its only losses coming to Northern Iowa, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Akron.  The Huskies are 7-1 SU at home in MAC play this season.  Ball State is just 2-7 SU in its last nine true road games. 

Ball State is 1-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus more boards than their opponents over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. teams that win between 51% & 60% of their games over the last two years.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Huskies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage below 40%.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4 

The Clemson Tigers want revenge from a 59-68 road loss at Georgia Tech on February 25th less than two weeks ago.  They don’t have to wait long for revenge, and they should get it at home this time around. 

Clemson has been a very tough out at home here of late.  The Tigers are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games which includes upset wins over Florida State as 3.5-point dogs, Louisville as 4.5-point dogs and Duke as 10.5-point dogs.  They also beat NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Yellow Jackets, who have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But four of those wins were at home with their lone road win coming at lowly Wake Forest.  Clemson is 18-4 SU & 13-9 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Georgia Tech. 

Clemson is 7-0 ATS in Friday games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Plays against road teams (Georgia Tech) - off three or more consecutive wins in a game involving two winning teams (51% to 60%) are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Clemson Friday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on California +15.5 

The Cal Golden Bears have quietly gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as 15.5-point road underdogs to the Oregon Ducks tonight. 

Cal only lost 72-77 at home to Oregon as 10.5-point dogs on January 30th in their first meeting this season.  So they will be out for revenge and should have no problem staying within 15.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

Cal is a sensational 14-3 ATS in its last 17 trips to Oregon.  The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. at team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Cal is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a conference home win.  Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win.  Take California Thursday. 

20* Boise State/UNLV Mountain West No-Brainer on UNLV -1 

Nobody is playing better than UNLV in the Mountain West heading into the conference tournament.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes upset road wins over New Mexico and San Diego State as 14.5-point dogs. 

UNLV gets to play at home for the conference tournament, which is a huge advantage that isn’t being factored into the line enough.  They won their last two home games over Colorado State by 24 and Boise State by 10 and are 12-6 SU at home this season.  I realize that Elijah Mitrou-Long (12.6 PPG) is doubtful to play tonight for the Rebels, but they get back Donnie Tillman (10.1 PPG) from a five-game absence to make up for it. 

Boise State is just 4-8 SU in true road games this season.  And that 66-76 loss at UNLV was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  UNLV led 60-33 with 10 minutes left before calling off the dogs.  The Broncos outscored them by 17 in garbage time.  You’ll get a focused UNLV for 40 minutes in this one and the result will be another blowout win in their favor. 

T.J. Otzelberger is 15-4 ATS in home games off two straight wins in all games he has coached.  The Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.  UNLV is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet UNLV Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Florida International +9.5 

I was on Florida International when they lost 57-60 at LA Tech as 10-point dogs on February 13th.  So I’m certainly taking them again in the rematch at LA Tech as 9.5-point dogs this time around. 

This has simply been a bad match for LA Tech in recent years.  FIU is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with LA Tech despite being the underdog in all four.  They have an excellent shot of pulling the upset again tonight. 

Asking LA Tech to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Bulldogs are just 4-3 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall and have been grossly overvalued here down the stretch.  Their four wins during this stretch have come by 3, 3, 2 and 13 points. 

LA Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games off three straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better.  FIU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida International Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are on the bubble and cannot afford a loss to Minnesota tonight.  They should make easy work of the Golden Gophers just as they did when they won 68-56 as 5.5-point road dogs at Minnesota on February 19th in their first meeting this season. 

Minnesota is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall to play its way out of NCAA Tournament contention.  The Golden Gophers put a lot of energy into two straight heartbreaking losses to Maryland by 1 and Wisconsin by 2.  I don’t think they’ll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face an Indiana team that simply wants it more tonight. 

Indiana is 14-3 SU at home this season.  The Hoosiers are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season with eight of those nine losses coming by 4 points or more. 

The Hoosiers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Gophers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Hoosiers are 12-3 ATS vs. bad pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in road games revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points over the last three seasons.  Take Indiana Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas -3 

The Arkansas Razorbacks have been a completely different team with Isaiah Joe (16.9 PPG) in the lineup.  They recently lost five straight games that he missed due to an injury. 

But the Razorbacks are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS since his return with wins over Missouri by 10 and Tennessee by 17 at home with their only loss coming at Georgia.  The Razorbacks need to win these last two games to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  It starts tonight with LSU at home. 

Adding to Arkansas’ motivation is that it will be out for revenge from a 77-79 loss at LSU in their first meeting on January 8th.  The Razorbacks are 13-4 SU at home this season and should be able to handle a struggling Tigers team that is just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. 

LSU is 1-8 ATS off a conference win this season.  Arkansas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after two straight games where it made 78% or better from the FT line.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday. 

20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -4.5 

The gift that keeps on giving is betting Iowa at home.  The Hawkeyes are 14-1 SU & 11-2-2 ATS at home this season.  That includes 11-0 SU & 9-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  And now the Hawkeyes are highly motivated for revenge from their worst loss of the season at Purdue in their first meeting on February 5th. 

The Hawkeyes are even more potent now after getting C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.8% 3-pointers) back from an ankle injury in their 77-68 home win over Penn State over the weekend.  Purdue shot 63.1% as a team and 55.9% from 3-point range while draining 19 3-pointers against Iowa in their first meeting.  That’s not going to happen again. 

Purdue is 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Boilermakers are 4-10 SU & 3-10-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  That includes 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in all Big Ten road games with their only wins coming at Northwestern by 3 and Indiana.  Their seven losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game. 

Iowa is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Purdue is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Iowa Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -2 

The South Carolina Gamecocks have gone 10-5 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 SEC games to play their way into NCAA Tournament contention.  And it’s worth noting that each of their last three losses all came by 6 points or less, so they have been competitive in almost every game. 

That includes their 76-79 loss at Mississippi State on February 19th just a few weeks ago.  Now the Gamecocks want revenge on the Bulldogs at home this time around.  South Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last seven home games outscoring opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game during this stretch at home. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-0 SU in the last four.  Mississippi State is 4-6 SU In true road games this season with its only wins coming at Coastal Carolina, Florida, Arkansas and Missouri. 

South Carolina is 16-6 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 ATS after having won five or six of their last seven games this season.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* Colorado/Stanford ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 

The Stanford Cardinal have played their way back to the ‘first four out’ line.  The Cardinal have gotten healthy and have played up to their potential over the last few weeks.  Now they really have a chance to add to their resume with a win over a ranked Colorado team Sunday. 

Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Cardinal went on the road and beat Washington by 8 and Washington State by 18.  They also beat Utah at home by 8.  The Cardinal are 13-4 SU & 11-6 ATS at home this season.  They hung tough in a 74-81 loss at Colorado on February 8th as 8.5-point dogs.  They led that game by 11 at halftime and now want revenge. 

Colorado has been grossly overvalued of late due to that Top 25 ranking.  The Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost at home to UCLA by 7 as 10-point favorites and were upset at California by 16 as 8.5-point favorites in their last two games coming in.  We’ll keep ’selling high’ on the Buffaloes today. 

The Buffaloes are 14-40-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  Colorado is 12-38-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Stanford is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 home games.  The Cardinal are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite.  Take Stanford Sunday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU -1 

The SMU Mustangs have come up big with wins over Houston and Memphis recently that help their tournament resume.  Now they get another good chance here to inch closer to the bubble by beating a fellow bubble team in Wichita State. 

Considering SMU is 15-1 at home this season, this is a great value for the Mustangs today as a short 1-point favorite.  They are 8-0 at home in conference play and home one of the best home-court advantages in the AAC. 

SMU has the rest advantage here last playing on February 25th while Wichita State last played on February 27th.  The Shockers have basically lost to all the best teams they have faced on the road this season.  They are 2-4 SU in their last six AAC road games with their only wins coming over UCF and USF.  They lost to Temple, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Wichita State is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams that win between 60% & 80% of their games like SMU.  The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet SMU Sunday. 

15* Arizona/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3.5 

Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins in first place in the Pac-12, tied with Oregon.  The Bruins have put themselves in this position by going 10-2 SU & 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to ASU and Oregon. 

UCLA is a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games.  The Bruins face a reeling Arizona team that is coming off back-to-back upset losses to Oregon at home and USC on the road.  There’s no way Arizona should be favored on the road tonight with their injury situation.   

The Wildcats will be without Josh Green (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) for a second straight game due to a back injury.  They could also be without Max Hazzard (5.5 PPG) for a second straight game due to personal reasons.  Arizona’s offense was dreadful in the 48-57 loss at USC without these two on Thursday. 

UCLA upset Arizona 65-52 as 12.5-point road underdogs on February 8th in their first meeting.  Sean Miller is just 9-19 ATS revenging a same-season loss as the coach of the Wildcats.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two seasons.  UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games off a conference win over the last three years.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Take UCLA Saturday. 

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 

The USC Trojans want revenge form a tough 64-66 road loss at Arizona State earlier this month on February 8th.  The Trojans led that game 40-32 at halftime on the road and feel like they let one get away. 

Now, the Trojans will be highly motivated for a win at home tonight where they are 12-2 SU this season.  They just got back Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Rakocevic (10.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG) from illness and promptly beat Arizona 57-48 as 4.5-point home underdogs on Thursday. 

Arizona State is coming off a tough 72-75 road loss at UCLA on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat just two days later and hit the road again to face a USC team that will be motivated for revenge.  That’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

USC is 17-4 SU & 12-9 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Arizona State.  The Trojans are 12-4 ATS vs. conference opponents this season.  USC is 8-1 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take USC Saturday. 

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Nevada +5.5 

Expectations are finally catching up to the San Diego State Aztecs.  Their 27-1 record and No. 5 national ranking come with expectations that are hard to live up to.  That has certainly shown in their last two games. 

The Aztecs lost outright as 14.5-point home favorites 63-66 to UNLV last Saturday.  Then they found themselves in a dog fight in a 66-60 home win over Colorado State as 13.5-point favorites on Tuesday.  And now they have to face arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West in Nevada. 

Nevada is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Wolf Pack boast one of the best players in the country in Jalen Harris (21.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG), who has scored at least 20 points in eight straight games coming in.  They actually led 35-33 at halftime at San Diego State in their first meeting.  You know they want revenge at home where they are 12-2 SU on the season this time around. 

The home team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Aztecs.  Bet Nevada Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

The spot couldn’t be worse for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga as 4-point underdogs.  That win cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what they do the rest of the way. 

It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Cougars, who are just 5-5 SU in true road games this season.  And they certainly won’t be motivated to face a Pepperdine team that they already beat by 27 at home in their first meeting this season. 

Conversely, Pepperdine wants revenge from that defeat and to show that they can play with BYU.  The Waves are 9-4 SU at home this season with three of those losses coming by single-digits.  The only exception was a 12-point loss to Gonzaga as 15-point dogs. 

Plays on home teams (Pepperdine) - revenging. Blowout loss by 20 points or more, off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent are 56-21 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Lorenzo Romar is 11-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games as a head coach. 

Pepperdine is 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with BYU with all four wins in upset fashion.  BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Pepperdine is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Bet Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -3 

The Bradley Braves want revenge from their 51-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 5-point dogs on February 1st.  It will be a completely different story at Bradley this time around. 

The Braves are 15-1 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  And it’s worth noting the Braves didn’t have their best player in Elijah Childs (14.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) in that first meeting with the Ramblers. 

Loyola-Chicago is 4-6 SU & 2-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  The Ramblers are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five MVC road games with their only win coming by 7 at Evansville, which is 0-17 in MVC play.  The four losses have all come by 5 points or more and by an average of 12.8 points per game. 

Loyola-Chicago is 0-6 ATS in road games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last two seasons.  The Ramblers are 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Bradley is 57-29 ATS in its last 86 home games revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  The Braves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Roll with Bradley Saturday. 

15* Davidson/Dayton ESPN 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 140.5 

Two of the best offensive teams in the country square off tonight when the Dayton Flyers host the Davidson Wildcats.  Dayton ranks 4th in adjusted offense, while Davidson ranks 31st in adjusted offense according to KenPom. 

Dayton is scoring 79.9 points per game on 52% shooting on the season, including 82.0 points per game on 52.9% shooting at home.  The one knock on the Flyers is that they don’t defense as well as most of the top teams in the country, which is why many believe they won’t make a deep run in the tournament. 

Davidson has really come on strong in winning four of its last five games.  The OVER is 4-1 in those five games.  The Wildcats have scored at least 72 points in seven of their last eight games overall and are averaging 80.8 points per game during this stretch. 

Davidson and Dayton have combined to average 147.8 points per game in their last five meetings.  Dayton is 7-1 OVER vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Wildcats last five road games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5.5 

Off two straight road losses at Colorado & Utah, the USC Trojans return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are a bubble team right now and could certainly use a win over a ranked team like Arizona tonight. 

Jonah Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Nick Rakocevic (11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) both barely played against Utah Sunday due to illness.  Both are healthier now and listed as probable.  This should give the Trojans a big boost.  They are 11-2 SU at home this season. 

Arizona is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Wildcats only beat the Trojans 85-80 at home in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  Now the Trojans are out for revenge and catching 5.5 points at home this time around in the rematch. 

The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in conference games this season.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Gonzaga -25.5 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off just their 2nd loss this season with a 78-91 setback at BYU Saturday in one of the best atmospheres this season in all of college basketball.  Look for them to return home highly motivated tonight and to make easy work of San Diego. 

Gonzaga already beat San Diego 94-50 on the road as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  If they can beat them by 44 on the road, the Bulldogs can certainly cover this 25.5-point spread at home. 

San Diego is just 2-12 SU & 5-8-1 ATS in West Coast Conference play this season.  They just lost their last game by 29 at St. Mary’s, which lost by 30 at home to Gonzaga a few weeks back. 

Gonzaga is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 35.5 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Gonzaga is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following an upset loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Gonzaga Thursday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois -2.5 

I love the value we are getting with Southern Illinois as only 2.5-point home favorites over Indiana State tonight.  It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Salukis after they have lost three of their last four coming in.  Two losses came on the road to Northern Iowa and Valpo and the other was a home loss to Bradley by 2 in overtime.  Those are three of the best teams in the conference. 

Southern Illinois has been a juggernaut at home this season.  The Salukis are 12-2 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season.  They have beaten some of the best teams in the MVC at home this year in Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago.  And they want revenge from a 56-68 road loss at Indiana State in their first meeting this season.  They should have their revenge considering the Salukis are 18-4 SU in their last 22 home meetings with the Sycamores. 

Indiana State is yet another MVC team that has been great at home but terrible on the road.  The Sycamores are 3-8 SU & 3-7-1 ATS in true road games this season.  And it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them off two straight wins over Northern Iowa at home and Evansville on the road by a combined 5 points. 

Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Salukis are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season, winning by 14.8 points per game on average.  The Sycamores are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight road games. The Salukis are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Bradley -3.5 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the MVC when healthy.  And they just recently got fully healthy with their two best players returning from injury.  The Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Valparaiso. 

Bradley should make easy work of one of the worst teams in the conference in Illinois State tonight.  The Redbirds are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in MVC play this season.  That includes their 63-75 loss as 8-point underdogs at Bradley in their first meeting this season. 

Bradley owns Illinois State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with those four wins coming by an average of 11.8 points per game.  This is a very short number for them to be laying tonight when they are clearly the superior team. 

The Braves are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  The Redbirds are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Illinois State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. Take Bradley Wednesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -5 

Off two straight losses, the Penn State Nittany Lions come back highly motivated for a win tonight against Rutgers.  They also have revenge in mind after falling 61-72 at Rutgers on January 7th.  Expect a big effort from the Nittany Lions tonight because of it. 

Penn State is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game at home this year.  Five of their six Big Ten home wins have come by 6 points or more. 

Rutgers is 1-7 SU in true road games this season with its only win coming at Nebraska.  Six of those seven losses have come by 5 points or more.  I just think this is a generous price to back the Nittany Lions tonight as only 5-point home favorites with all things considered. 

Rutgers is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games off two straight games where it attempts 12 or fewer free throws.  Penn State is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season.  Roll with Penn State Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4 

The SMU Mustangs will be highly motivated for a win tonight off back-to-back road losses at Tulane and Tulsa.  They host a Memphis team that they already beat 74-70 on the road earlier this season. 

I like SMU’s chances of bouncing back considering they have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country as well.  The Mustangs are 14-1 at home this season and just upset Houston at home in their last home game.  They are 6-0 at home in AAC play this season. 

Memphis is in a big letdown spot off its 60-59 upset home win over Houston.  The Tigers are 2-4 SU in AAC true road games this year with their two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  Their four losses have come by an average of 14.5 points per game. 

SMU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home meetings with Memphis.  The Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Memphis is 1-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season.  Take SMU Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Chicago -6.5 

Loyola-Chicago has one of the best home-court advantages in the Missouri Valley this season.  They are 13-2 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  And the Ramblers want revenge from a 62-65 road loss at Drake in their first meeting this season on January 7th. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home in MVC play this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.9 points per game.  They have won six of their eight home games this season by 9 points or more, including wins over Bradley by 11 and Northern Iowa by 9, which are two of the best teams in the conference. 

Drake has been overvalued big-time of late.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Evansville by 5 and Valpo by 2 in OT.  The Bulldogs are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in MVC road games this season with their only win coming at Evansville, the worst team in the conference. 

Loyola-Chicago is 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Drake, winning by an average of 11.8 PPG.  The Ramblers have won by 22, 15 and 15 points in their last three home meetings.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. 

Loyola-Chicago is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  The Ramblers are 12-2 ATS revenging a road loss over the last three years.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Ramblers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Tuesday.  

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on La Salle +11 

These teams are way more evenly matched than this 11-point spread would indicate.  There’s a ton of value taking La Salle (13-13) over Davidson (14-12) as a double-digit underdog tonight. 

The Explorers are coming off two straight wins and covers at home over Fordham and on the road in upset fashion over George Washington by 10.  They have a 3-point loss at Rhode Island as 10-point dogs and a 2-point loss at Duquesne as 9.5-point dogs to prove they can play with some of the best teams in the conference on the road.  They upset Davidson last year by 10 as 6.5-point dogs as well. 

Davidson has failed to cover its last two games coming in.  The Wildcats lost outright as 12.5-point road favorites at St. Joe’s, which is arguably the worst team in the Atlantic 10.  They did beat Rhode Island 77-75 at home over the weekend but didn’t cover as 2.5-point favorites. 

La Salle is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Explorers are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  La Salle is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games overall.  Roll with La Salle Tuesday. 

20* Iowa/Michigan State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan State -8 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team, which is why they are 8-point road underdogs to Michigan State despite having the better record and ranking.  That will show tonight as the Spartans make easy work of the Hawkeyes. 

Iowa has been awful on the road this season.  It is just 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS in its eight Big Ten road games with its two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Northwestern and Minnesota.  They lost by 36 at Purdue, by 12 at Indiana, by 12 at Michigan and by 10 at Maryland.  They also were upset by Nebraska on the road and failed to cover in a road loss at Penn State. 

Michigan State is coming off a 21-point win at Nebraska and simply owns the Hawkeyes.  The Spartans are 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with Iowa.  They have outscored the Hawkeyes by roughly 17 points per game in those 17 meetings. 

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Iowa is 8-22 ATS in all road games over the last three years.  The Hawkeyes are 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Spartans are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  Take Michigan State Tuesday. 

20* Louisville/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5 

The Florida State Seminoles are getting zero respect from oddsmakers tonight as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Louisville Cardinals.  The Seminoles are 23-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road and three of them by 6 points or fewer. 

Florida State is a perfect 14-0 at home this season and enjoying one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  And keep in mind the Seminoles already beat the Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 4th. 

Louisville has lost its last two road games in upset fashion to two mediocre teams.  The Cardinals fell 58-64 at Georgia Tech as 6-point favorites and 62-77 at Clemson as 4.5-point favorites.  It’s asking a lot of them to pull the road upset here and hand the Seminoles their first home loss of the season. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Florida State Monday. 

15* Maryland/Ohio State CBS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -2.5 

The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing well and ready to take down Maryland today.  They are favored for good reason.  They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season on January 7th.  They’ll have their revenge Sunday. 

The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa.  They also upset Michigan on the road and beat Northwestern on the road.  They are 3-0 at home during this stretch with wins over Purdue, Rutgers and Indiana by an average of 10.3 points per game. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on Maryland, which has won nine straight games coming in.  They did not play well at home against Northwestern last time out and only won by 9 as 14-point favorites.  It’s a case of their heads getting too big and lacking the focus they need to beat a team as good as Ohio State on the road today. 

The Buckeyes are 12-2 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  Ohio State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.  The Terrapins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ohio State Sunday. 

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +15 

Few teams have come as close to beating San Diego State (26-0) as UNLV did a few weeks back.  The Runnin’ Rebels only lost 67-71 as 7-point home dogs to the Aztecs.  Now they’re highly motivated for revenge and to pull off the shocker in the rematch. 

It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the unbeaten Aztecs, who have also managed to cover five in a row coming in.  Oddsmakers are forced to set this number higher than it should be knowing the public is going to continue pounding San Diego State. 

UNLV comes in playing well with three wins in their last four games.  Their only loss was a 3-point setback to Nevada in overtime.  They beat Fresno State at home and Colorado State by 24 at home, while also upsetting New Mexico on the road.  It’s a team that is proving rapidly under one of the most underrated head coaches in college basketball in T.J. Otzelberger. 

Otzelberger is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games as a head coach.  Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (UNLV) - off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 62-33 (65.3%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with UNLV Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on California +9.5 

The Washington Huskies have no business being 9.5-point favorites against Cal tonight.  The Huskies are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Asking them to win this game is asking a lot, let alone asking them to win by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to beat us. 

California is improving rapidly as the season goes on.  The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with only two losses by double-digits during this stretch.  They hung tough in a 6-point road loss at Colorado as 16-point dogs and are coming off an upset at Washington State as 6.5-point dogs in a 9-point win. 

California already beat Washington 61-58 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Golden Bears have a huge rest advantage coming into this game.  They come in on two days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday while Washington played on Thursday in a 64-72 home loss to Stanford.  The Huskies only have one day in between games here. 

Washington is 0-7 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games overall.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Golden Bears today.  Bet California Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +8 

This is an awful spot for San Francisco.  The Dons had a golden opportunity to beat Gonzaga on Thursday, leading by 9 at halftime.  But they were dominated in the 2nd half and lost 54-71.  It’s the type of loss that can beat a team twice. 

There’s no way San Francisco is going to be able to get up for Pepperdine today.  They won’t be focused for this game, which will make it tough to cover this lofty 8-point spread. Not to mention, the Dons are just 1-4 SU in their last five games overall anyway, so it’s not like they are playing well coming in. 

Pepperdine has been impressive here down the stretch as they are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games overall.  Two of those losses were by single-digits.  Pepperdine is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with San Francisco with just one loss coming by more than 7 points. 

The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  San Francisco is 0-6 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two seasons.  Pepperdine is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better over the last two years.  Take Pepperdine Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5 

The Syracuse Orange are desperate for a win to get back in the NCAA Tournament discussion.  They have dropped five of their last six against a gauntlet of a schedule with the losses coming to Duke, FSU, Louisville, Clemson and NC State with three of those losses on the road.  Only one of the losses came by double-digits, so they proved they could play with the best. 

Now the Orange get a break in the schedule here with Georgia Tech coming to town.  It’s a Yellow Jackets team that they already beat 97-63 on the road in their first meeting this season.  It’s a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets because you need to be able to make 3-pointers to be able to beat Syracuse.  Well, Georgia Tech ranks 323rd in the country in 3-point shooting (30.1%).  Bet Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -2.5 

The George Washington Colonials are quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall with some very impressive wins along the way. 

Indeed, the Colonials are coming off two straight upset road wins at George Mason as 6-point dogs and at Duquesne as 10-point dogs.  They also upset Davidson at home and UMass on the road during this stretch.  They should be a bigger favorite over La Salle today. 

La Salle is 3-10 in Atlantic 10 play this season with its only wins coming against Fordham (twice) and St. Joseph’s, which are the two worst teams in the conference.  George Washington is 14-4 SU & 11-6-1 ATS in it last 18 home meetings with La Salle. 

The Explorers are 1-8 ATS in road games off a conference home win over the last three seasons.  The Colonials are 7-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  La Salle is 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take George Washington Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Missouri State PK 

The Missouri State Bears are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-2 SU but 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only two losses came on the road at Southern Illinois by 2 at the buzzer and at Bradley in overtime.  Those are two of the best teams in the MVC. 

They also went on the road and won by 13 at Indiana State, crushed Drake by 35 at home and crushed Illinois State by 20 at home.  Now they want revenge from a 58-62 road loss at Loyola-Chicago as 6-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on January 4th.  With the way they are playing right now, they will get their revenge at home. 

Loyola-Chicago has played very poorly on the road in MVC play this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  They lost by 5 at Northern Iowa, by 5 at Southern Illinois and by 29 at Indiana State.  Their only road win was against the worst team in the MVC in Evansville, and they only won that game by 7 points and failed to cover the number. 

Dana Ford is 10-2 ATS after two straight games where his team was called for 22 or more fouls in all games he has coached.  Loyola-Chicago is 4-13 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 11-4 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +1 

The Xavier Musketeers are coming up clutch here down the stretch with their NCAA Tournament lives at stake.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming at Butler by 5 as 5.5-point dogs. 

They went on the road and upset Seton Hall by 12 as 9-point dogs, upset DePaul on the road by 8 as 1-point dogs and also beat Providence at home and St. John’s on the road.  Now they’ve love to get revenge on Villanova from a 62-68 road loss in their first meeting this season. 

The Wildcats certainly have been vulnerable here of late.  They are just 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only wins came against DePaul, Temple and Marquette by 1.  They were upset at home by both Creighton and Seton Hall and also lost on the road at Butler.  This Villanova team isn’t nearly as strong as some of Jay Wright’s teams in recent years. 

Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Xavier is 10-3 SU at home this season.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Take Xavier Saturday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5 

I love the spot for the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday.  They are coming off three straight losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory when they host Michigan today. 

Purdue is 17-2 SU in Big Ten home games since last season.  The Boilermakers have one of the best home-court advantages not only in the conference, but in the country.  And that has been on display this season with wins by 29 over Virginia, by 29 over Michigan State, by 19 over Wisconsin and by 36 over Iowa in four of their most impressive home performances. 

Michigan is starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Wolverines.  They are coming off a win at Rutgers on Wednesday, which ended a 17-0 start at home for the Scarlet Knights.  It’s an obvious letdown spot for the Wolverines here Saturday. 

Purdue wants revenge from a 78-84 (OT) road loss at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  And the Wolverines may not have leading scorer Isaiah Livers (13.3 PPG), who sat out that Rutgers game with an ankle injury.  Michigan only has two days to get ready for Purdue while the Boilermakers have three days to get ready after last playing on Tuesday. 

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after covering six or seven of its last eight games.  Matt Painter is 15-5 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of Purdue.  The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet Purdue Saturday. 

20* VCU/Saint Louis ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Saint Louis +2 

The Saint Louis Billikens are 18-8 this season and a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  They need a big finish here to make the dance, and they’ll be highly motivated for a victory tonight because of it. 

The Billikens should not be home underdogs to the VCU Rams tonight.  Saint Louis is 12-3 at home this season with their only losses coming to Seton Hall, Dayton (by 2 in OT) and Duquesne.  Those are two of the best teams in the country and a bubble team in Duquesne. 

VCU is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall, so it is getting way too much respect from the books with how it is playing of late.  The Rams lost by 12 at Rhode Island and by 18 at Richmond in their two road games during this stretch.  They were also upset by George Mason as 14.5-point home favorites and fell to Dayton by 5 at home on Tuesday. 

VCU Is 0-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Friday games.  The Billikens are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss.  VCU is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as an underdog.  Take Saint Louis. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +9.5 

The USC Trojans are playing too well right now to be catching 9.5 points from the Colorado Buffaloes.  The Trojans are 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have only lost one of those 11 games by more than 9 points. 

That was a shocking 57-78 home loss to Colorado as 1.5-point favorites on February 1st.  And that place right into my handicap here with the Trojans out for revenge from one of their worst losses of the season.  They will simply want this game more tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning four of their last five games overall.  But in their two home games during this stretch, they failed to cover both in a 6-point home win over Cal as 16-point favorites and a 7-point home win over Stanford as 8.5-point favorites. 

USC was able to win and cover its last two games with a 62-56 home win as 2-point favorites over Washington and a 70-51 home win over Washington State as 7-point favorites despite playing without leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Onyeka Okongwu (16.4 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.0 BPG).  Well, Okongwu returns from a concussion tonight to give them a huge boost. 

USC is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in true road games this season.  USC is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Bet USC Thursday. 

15* Ohio State/Iowa ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including a perfect 6-0 SU & 4-0-2 ATS at home in Big Ten play.  They have won all six of their Big Ten home games by 5 points or more and should easily cover this 2.5-point spread tonight. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Ohio State after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  Three of those five wins came at home while the two road wins came at Northwestern and Michigan (by 3).  The Buckeyes are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Buckeyes are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  The Hawkeyes are 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Iowa is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.   

The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Iowa is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this year.  Take Iowa Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers -2.5 

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are still a perfect 17-0 at home this season and coming off a 15-point home win over a very good Illinois team.  I expect them to make easy work of Michigan at home tonight as well. 

The Wolverines are starting to get too much respect from the books again after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on them as their two road wins during this stretch were against the two worst teams in the Big Ten in Nebraska and Northwestern. 

Rutgers will be the more motivated team because they want revenge from a 63-69 loss to Michigan on February 1st just a few weeks ago.  It’s going to be a raucous atmosphere inside The Rac for the rematch tonight as the Scarlet Knights look to remain unbeaten at home. 

Rutgers are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights.  Roll with Rutgers Wednesday. 

20* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +9 

It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Syracuse after losing four of their last five coming in.  But all four losses came by 9 points or less.  They lost at Clemson by 1, at Florida State by 3, at home to NC State by 5 and at home to Duke by 9. 

That’s a brutal schedule and the fact that they hung tough in every game makes me believe they’ll have no problem staying within 9 points of Louisville tonight.  The Orange have won their last two meetings with the Cardinals, winning 69-49 at home and 78-73 on the road as 7-point dogs. 

Louisville isn’t playing well enough to be laying 9 points here.  They are 2-2 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset as 6-point favorites at Georgia Tech and lost by 15 as 4.5-point favorites at Clemson.  They only beat Virginia by 7 at home and failed to cover as 15.5-point home favorites against Wake Forest in a 10-point win. 

The Orange are 12-4 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games this season.  Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -4.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the best teams in the country and probably the best team in the Big East in my opinion.  Off two tough losses to Creighton (by 5) and Providence (by 3), I fully expect the Pirates to come back home highly motivated for a victory tonight against Butler. 

Seton Hall went on the road and beat Butler 78-70 in their first meeting this season despite shooting just 41.4% overall and 29% from 3-point range.  They should have no problem covering the 4.5 points at home this time around as we would expect them to be more efficient from the floor. 

It’s clear now that Butler’s 15-1 start was fraudulent.  The Bulldogs have gone 4-6 SU & 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games since.  Their four wins during this stretch all came by 5 points or less, and their six losses have come by an average 11.0 points per game.  They were just upset by Georgetown as 12-point home favorites.  And three of their last four road games have resulted in losses by 13 points or more. 

Butler is 1-10 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 3-14 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last three years.  Butler is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 road games off a home loss.  The Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Pirates are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games overall, including 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Take Seton Hall Wednesday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV -1 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on UNLV here as a short home favorite over Colorado State.  They have lost five of their last seven games overall with all five losses coming against the best teams in the Mountain West. 

The Runnin’ Rebels barely lost at home to unbeaten San Diego State by 4 and Nevada by 3 in OT.  The other three losses came on the road to Utah State, Nevada and Colorado State.  That road loss to the Rams placed the Runnin’ Rebels in revenge mode tonight as they get them at home this time around. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on a Colorado State team that has gone 9-2 SU in its last 11 games overall.  They have taken advantage of a soft schedule not having to play San Diego State during this stretch.  And they’ve lost both games against the best team they faced in Utah State. 

UNLV is 19-4 SU in its last 23 home meetings with Colorado State.  The Runnin’ Rebels basically just have to win to cover at home tonight.  They’ll get their revenge on the Rams in this one.  Roll with UNLV Tuesday. 

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2.5 

This is a huge game for the LSU Tigers tonight.  They have dropped three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory.  This stretch followed a 10-game winning streak dating back to non-conference play. 

But all three of those losses came on the road, including an OT loss to Auburn and a 6-point loss at Alabama.  LSU is a dominant 13-1 at home this season and basically just need to win to cover this short number against Kentucky tonight. 

Kentucky has road losses to South Carolina and Auburn in SEC play this season.  They barely survived at home last time out over Ole Miss as double-digit favorites.  And I just don’t think this Kentucky team is as strong as many of the ones we’ve seen in year’s past. 

Kentucky is 0-8 ATS off three of more consecutive wins this season.  LSU is 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 points.  Bet LSU Tuesday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only losses both coming on the road at Butler by 4 (OT) and at Villanova by 1. 

Marquette is 12-1 at home this season and should be able to cover this short number against Creighton.  The Golden Eagles will have a huge rest advantage having last played on February 12th while Creighton last played on February 15th.  Basically, Marquette gets five days to prepare for Creighton while the Bluejays only have two. 

No question Creighton is playing well also having won seven of their last eight games overall.  But I just think Marquette is going to want this one more, especially considering they are out for revenge from a loss at Creighton in their first meeting this season on January 1st. 

Creighton is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after covering four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Golden Eagles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  Marquette is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Marquette Tuesday. 

20* Xavier/St. John’s Big East No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5 

The Xavier Musketeers have played themselves back into the NCAA Tournament conversation.  They cannot afford a loss to St. John’s now, and I look for them to handle their business on the road here Monday night. 

Xavier has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  They upset Seton Hall by 12 a 9-point dogs, upset DePaul and topped Providence at home.  They only lost by 5 at Butler as 5.5-point dogs. 

St. John’s is 3-9 in Big East play this season with two of its wins against DePaul and the other against Providence.  The Red Storm just lost second-leading scorer Mustafa Heron (13.8 PPG) to an ankle injury and couldn’t afford to lose him. 

Xavier owns St. John’s, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings.  They basically just have to win to cover tonight.  The Musketeers are 6-0 ATS after covering four of their last five ATS over the last two seasons.  Bet Xavier Monday. 

15* Memphis/UConn ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4 

The UConn Huskies are playing well right now going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their only losses came on the road at Memphis by 7 and on the road at SMU by 4.  They beat Temple by 15 at home, upset Cincinnati at home and upset Tulsa by 16 on the road. 

Now the Huskies want revenge from their 63-70 road loss at Memphis on February 1st.  They get an extra day to rest and prepare having three days off in between games.  Memphis only has two days off since its deflating OT loss at Cincinnati on Thursday.  That followed up an upset home loss to South Florida as 9-point favorites. 

UConn is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season.  Memphis is 2-3 SU in AAC road games this season while getting outscored by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Their two wins came by a combined 6 points over UCF and USF. 

Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  UConn is 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine Sunday games.  The Huskies are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.  UConn is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 home games overall.  Roll with UConn Sunday. 

15* Villanova/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Temple +6.5 

The Temple Owls have turned the corner here in their last four games and are playing well enough to hang with a team like Villanova.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Owls will want this one more today in the home underdog role. 

Temple is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  The only loss came at Memphis. They beat ECU by 12 at home and upset SMU by 7 at home.  They also went on the road and covered in a win at Tulane. 

Villanova is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  They were upset at home by Creighton and Seton Hall and also nearly lost to Marquette in a 1-point win as 6-point favorites.  They lost on the road at Butler as well.  It’s a solid Villanova team, but definitely one of the worst Villanova teams in the last decade. 

Temple is 8-1 ATS in February home games over the last three seasons.  Villanova is 2-9 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Villanova is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers once again today.  Take Temple Sunday. 

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are highly motivated for a win Sunday.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with tough road losses at Illinois and Penn State and a home loss to Michigan State.  They did beat Wisconsin by 18 in between at home. 

Minnesota is also out for revenge from a 52-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season.  Now the Gophers get the Hawkeyes at home this time around, where they are 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS on the season.  And the home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has been huge. 

Iowa is just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in Big Ten road games this season, losing those six games by an average of 13.2 points per game.  They just lost by 12 at Indiana on Thursday, who had lost four straight prior to that game.  Adding injury to insult is that they lost their best shooter in C.J. Fredrick (10.7 PPG, 46.7% 3-pointers) to an ankle injury in that defeat. 

Minnesota has a huge rest advantage in this game was well.  They have had seven days off in between games having last played on February 8th.  Iowa only has two days off to get ready for Minnesota after playing Indiana on February 13th. 

Minnesota is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Iowa is 7-22 ATS in all road games over the last three seasons.  The Gophers are 14-3 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Minnesota Sunday. 

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Seton Hall -1.5 

Seton Hall should come back motivated for a win after an upset home loss to Creighton on Wednesday.  The good news for the Pirates is that they’ve actually played better on the road than at home, and we are getting them at a tremendous value today. 

Indeed, Seton Hall is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in Big East road games this season.  That includes upset wins over Xavier, Butler and Villanova.  And they already beat Providence at home this season while shooting 57.8% and holding the Friars to just 35.9% shooting. 

Providence is 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall.  They have lost at home to both Villanova and Butler this season and don’t stand much of a chance of beating a team that caliber of Seton Hall, which is the best team in the Big East. 

The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Friars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.  Providence is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet Seton Hall Saturday. 

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -3.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now.  They have won seven of their last nine games overall and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  We are getting them at a tremendous value as only 3.5-point home favorites over Tennessee today. 

The most remarkable part of this 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS run is that the Gamecocks have played six of those 10 games on the road.  All three of their losses came on the highway.  South Carolina is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four home games upsetting Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog, and crushing Vanderbilt by 26, Missouri by 22 and Texas A&M by 20. 

Now the Gamecocks want revenge from a tough 55-56 road loss at Tennessee on January 11th in their first meeting.  The Vols have a plethora of injuries right now and just aren’t playing well, going 2-4 SU in their last six games overall.  They are without Turnver (12.3 PPG) and could be without both Pons (11.2 PPG) and James (7.8 PPG), who are questionable. 

Tennessee is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Saturday games.  South Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet South Carolina Saturday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +2 

The SMU Mustangs want revenge from a 62-71 road loss at Houston on January 15th.  I fully expect them to get their revenge at home this time around considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

SMU is an impressive 13-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.4 points per game.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight with ranked rival Houston coming to town.  And the Mustangs still have a chance to win the AAC but must knock off the Cougars here. 

Houston came away with a fortunate 62-58 win at South Florida as 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday.  The Cougars trailed most the way until the final minutes.  Their luck runs out tonight at SMU. 

Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after a combined score of 125 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  SMU is 25-11-1 ATS in its last 37 Saturday games.  Take SMU Saturday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5.5 

The Baylor Bears have won 21 straight games with little to no signs of slowing down.  They are 11-0 at home this season and winning by 15.7 points per game.  They should handle West Virginia tonight. 

The Mountaineers are 1-4 SU in Big 12 road games this season with their only win coming at Oklahoma State, which may be the worst team in the conference.  They lost by 8 at Texas Tech, by 16 at Kansas State and by 10 at Oklahoma in their last three road games coming in.  I don’t see how they’re supposed to cover here against Baylor with their track record on the road this season. 

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in road games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Baylor Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Richmond -1.5 

Richmond wants revenge from a 68-87 road loss at VCU on January 28th.  These teams have gone in opposite directions since that game and I trust the Spiders to get the job done at home tonight in the rematch. 

Richmond is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in its last three games.  That includes a 22-point home win over George Washington and a 27-point road win at La Salle.  The Spiders are 10-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Dayton and Saint Louis. 

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games since Richmond.  They lost by 12 at Rhode Island and were upset by George Mason at home as 14.5-point favorites.  Marcus Evans (10.3 PPG) suffered a knee injury in that loss to George Mason and is very questionable to play today. 

The Rams are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, including 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.  The Spiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Richmond Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +6 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who have lost nine straight coming in and are highly motivated for a victory.  But the Huskers are playing much better than their record would indicate as they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska upset Iowa 76-70 as 8-point home dogs and Purdue 70-56 as 13-point home dogs.  They only lost by 3 at Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs and just took Maryland to the wire in a 70-72 road loss as 17.5-point dogs.  Now they want revenge from a 68-82 road loss at Wisconsin on January 21st.  The Huskers only trailed 38-39 at halftime before falling apart in the second half. 

Wisconsin is 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS in all road games this season.  The Badgers are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Big Ten road games, losing by 12 at Michigan State, by 19 at Purdue, by 6 at Iowa and by 18 at Minnesota. 

The Huskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Wisconsin.  The Badgers are 0-6 ATS off a conference win this season.  Wisconsin is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Badgers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Nebraska Saturday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois +1.5 

Southern Illinois had won seven straight before suffering one of its worst losses of the season at Valparaiso on Wednesday.  They easily could have been looking ahead to this game against defending MVC champ Bradley, and that loss should have them refocused. 

Now Southern Illinois wants revenge from a 48-67 road loss at Bradley in their first meeting this season.  Well, SIU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC.  The Salukis are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season with wins over the likes of Northern Iowa and Loyola-Chicago, which are arguably the two best teams in the MVC. 

While Southern Illinois is 6-0 SU at home in Missouri Valley play, Bradley is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  That includes very bad losses to St. Joe’s and Miami Ohio out of conference.  And one of their wins was against Evansville, the worst team in the MVC. 

Southern Illinois is 15-5 SU In its last 20 home meetings with Bradley.  The Salukis are 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Braves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite.  The Salukis are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

20* Davidson/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -4 

St. Bonaventure has rebounded from a tough 1-4 start this season.  Interestingly, their lone win was against an NCAA Tournament team in Rutgers.  They have gone 16-4 since and have been flying under the radar in the Atlantic 10 this season. 

St. Bonaventure is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall coming in.  The Bonnies have only played 10 home games compared to 15 road games this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games and should be able to handle Davidson tonight. 

Davidson has been overvalued all season.  The Wildcats have been terrible on the road, going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their 14 games played away from home.  That includes 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS records in their last seven true road games with their only win coming at Fordham, which is 1-10 in Atlantic 10 play and one of the worst teams in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Davidson is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bonnies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Bonnies are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday. 

15* Colorado/Oregon ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -4.5 

This feels like a great spot for Oregon off back-to-back road losses to Stanford and Oregon State.  The Ducks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 12 days and are highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Adding to their motivation is that they are out for revenge from a 65-74 loss at Colorado on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think we get one of the best efforts of the season from the Ducks, who are 12-1 at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the country. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Colorado after winning three straight but failing to cover in a 6-point home win over Cal and a 7-point home win over Stanford.  And it’s a tired Colorado team that will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days here tonight. 

Oregon is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 13-38-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  The Ducks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games.  The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The favorites is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. 

The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after being called for 10-plus fewer fouls than their opponents.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after having won three of its last four games.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These four trends combine for a 33-2 system backing the Ducks.  Take Oregon Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -1.5 

The Indiana Hoosiers are desperate for a win tonight as they sit at 15-8 on the season and on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament.  A win over a ranked Iowa team tonight would go a long way for them. 

Indiana is motivated due to coming in on four straight losses.  The Hoosiers fell at home to both Maryland and Purdue and on the road at Penn State and Ohio State.  I look for a big effort from them to get a much-needed win here.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 12 days so they are rested and ready to go. 

Iowa has been terrible on the road for years.  Nothing has changed this season as the Hawkeyes are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their six Big Ten road games with their only win coming at lowly Northwestern.  Indiana is 12-3 SU at home this season. 

The Hawkeyes are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Iowa is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Hoosiers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game after 15-plus games.  Roll with Indiana Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2 

Missouri State only lost 69-71 at Drake as 5.5-point dogs.  The Bears will be highly motivated for revenge at home this time around.  They are also motivated off another 2-point loss at Southern Illinois.  The Bears are much better than their 11-14 record would indicate. 

The Drake Bulldogs have been great at home this season with a 12-1 record.  But they are just 2-7 SU in true road games and are underdogs for good reason tonight despite having the much better record than Missouri State. 

The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Missouri State is 18-4 SU & 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Drake.  Roll with Missouri State Wednesday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -5 

Bradley just got its best player back on Elijah Childs (14.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG) from injury after he missed 12 games.  They also got leading scorer Darrell Brown (14.8 PPG, 4.5 APG) back from a two-game absence.  The defending MVC champs are going to be a dangerous team moving forward. 

Both Childs and Brown sat out their 53-61 loss at Indiana State on January 25th.  Now the Braves have both back and will be out for revenge at home this time around.  That’s good news for a Braves team that is already 13-1 SU & 9-4 ATS at home this season and winning by 15.5 points per game on average. 

Indiana State has been great at home but is just 2-7 SU in true road games this season.  The Sycamores’ only two road wins came at Wright State and at Missouri State.  Their seven road losses have come by an average of 11.7 points per game. 

Bradley is 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Indiana State.  The Sycamores are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Braves are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bradley is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 home games overall. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Bradley Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on SMU -4.5 

UConn is coming off two straight upset wins at Tulsa and at home in overtime against Cincinnati.  Their luck runs out tonight on the road against a SMU team that is much their superior tonight. 

SMU has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the American Athletic because they are the furthest team West in the conference.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 14.2 points per game.  That includes a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS record in AAC home games with all five victories by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.2 points per game. 

SMU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with UConn with all five wins coming by 9 points or more and by an average of 18.2 points per game.  UConn is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in a week.  It will be just the 3rd game in 11 days for the Mustangs tonight.  The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet SMU Wednesday.  

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -1.5 

West Virginia is favored for good reason tonight.  The Mountaineers are 12-0 at home this season and winning by a whopping 19.5 points per game.  They will improve to 13-0 with a win and cover tonight against their hated rivals in Kansas. 

The Mountaineers want revenge from a 53-60 loss at Kansas as 10-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They actually led that game 30-24 at halftime before letting it slip away late in the 2nd half.  So they showed they could hang with Kansas on the road, so I have no doubt they can beat them at home this time around. 

West Virginia is 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Kansas.  The Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  West Virginia is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3 

The Kansas State Wildcats come in highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three straight and have been victims of a brutal schedule.  That schedule finally eases up tonight as they face arguably the worst team in the conference in Oklahoma State. 

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, so they have been competitive despite the losses.  They only lost by 3 at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs, by 9 at WVU as 13.5-point dogs, by 6 at home to Baylor as 7-point dogs and by 10 at Iowa State.  They also won and covered in an 8-point home win over Oklahoma as 2-point favorites. 

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in Big 12 games this season.  Kansas State owns Oklahoma State, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings while outscoring the Cowboys by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Three of the four wins came by double-digits. 

Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four ATS over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.  The favorite is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia -4 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after winning four straight and covering five straight coming in.  Three of those wins were at home against bad Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Pitt teams.  The only road win came at Clemson without their best player. 

This is a much tougher challenge tonight for the Fighting Irish facing the defending national champs who are starting to play their best basketball of the season.  Virginia has won three of its last four with its only loss coming by 7 at Louisville as 7-point dogs.  They beat a very good Florida State team at home. 

Virginia comes in on two days’ rest after playing on Saturday while Notre Dame only has one day to get ready for the Cavaliers after playing on Sunday.  That’s a huge advantage here for the home team that isn’t being factored into the line enough. 

Virginia owns Notre Dame, going 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Fighting Irish are 0-7 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after two straight games committing eight or fewer turnovers.  Take Virginia Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +10 

The Dayton Flyers are 21-2 and the No. 6 ranked team in the country.  With that record and ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very tough to live up to.  The Flyers should not be double-digit favorites against a very good Rhode Island team tonight. 

We’ve seen the odds catch up to the Flyers as they are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only won by 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites, won by 14 at home over Fordham as 24-point favorites and only won by 6 at home over Saint Louis as 14-point favorites. 

Rhode Island is the second-best team in the conference.  The Rams are 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in Atlantic 10 games this season.  They have won 10 straight coming in, including a 31-point win at George Washington on Saturday.  They also beat VCU by 12 and by 9 in their two meetings, and they topped Duquesne by 22, which are two of the other best teams in this conference.  They have proven they can hang with a team of Dayton’s caliber. 

The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Rhode Island is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Roll with Rhode Island Tuesday. 

15* FSU/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +8.5 

Duke is coming off its shocking 98-96 road win over its biggest rival in North Carolina Saturday night.  This is a massive letdown spot for the Blue Devils despite the fact that they are playing a ranked Florida State team. 

The Blue Devils trailed that game against UNC for like 95% of the game and only led in overtime.  The fact that they had to go to OT makes them less fresh.  They gave it all to come back from a double-digit deficit in the final few minutes of regulation, and a 5-point deficit in the final 21 seconds of OT. 

Florida State should still be fresh after crushing Miami 99-81 as 13.5-point home favorites on Saturday.  Plus, this is just the 2nd game in 7 days for the Seminoles.  They are the much deeper of these two teams as Leonard Hamilton consistently plays 10-plus players.  That depth is a huge advantage for the Seminoles tonight. 

The Seminoles are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Florida State Monday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson PK 

The Clemson Tigers are highly motivated for a victory.  They are coming off back-to-back road losses to Wake Forest and Virginia.  Now they’re back home and hosting Notre Dame in a game they just have to win to cover. 

Clemson is 4-0 in its last four ACC home games with wins over Syracuse, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest.  I think we get a big effort from the Tigers here Sunday. 

Notre Dame is getting too much respect from oddsmakers off three straight wins and four straight covers.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Irish as those three wins all came at home against some of the worst teams in the ACC in Wake, Georgia Tech and Pitt. 

The Fighting Irish are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Sunday. 

15* Wichita State/Houston ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State +5 

I love the spot for the Wichita State Shockers Sunday.  We’ll ‘buy low’ on a Shockers team coming off two straight losses and one that is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

Wichita State wants revenge from a 54-65 home loss to Houston in which they shot just 30.4% from the floor.  I have no doubt the Shockers will want this game more due to the revenge factor and coming off two straight losses by a combined 4 points. 

It’s also a great time to ’sell high’ on Houston, which has made backers a lot of money over the last month or so.  The Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them with success last time out on Tulane +16.5, and I’ll fade them again Sunday. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Wichita State) - off a conference loss by 3 points or less against an opponent that failed to cover but win SU as a favorite in their last game are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Shockers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  Wichita State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 Sunday games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Wichita State Sunday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois -3 

Southern Illinois comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall and a real contender to win the Missouri Valley Conference. 

No team has a bigger home-court advantage in the conference than the Salukis this season.  They are 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS at home and holding opponents to just 56.0 points per game and 38.5% shooting. 

Missouri State is just 3-9 in all games played away from home this season.  They have lost three of their last four coming in with their only win coming at home against lowly Illinois State.  They are just 5-17 SU in their last 22 trips to Southern Illinois. 

Southern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Salukis are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.  Bet Southern Illinois Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Florida Atlantic -2.5 

I love the spot for Florida Atlantic today.  The Owls face a home-and-home situation with rival Florida International here.  They lost 50-69 on Wednesday at FIU as 3-point dogs.  And now they’ll be out for revenge just three days later here and I expect them to get their payback at home this time around. 

Both of these teams have huge home-court advantages.  Florida Atlantic is 12-1 at home this season with its only loss coming by 3 points to UAB.  FIU Is 11-1 at home this year but just 5-7 in all road games.  The Golden Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with all four losses coming by 14 points or more. 

Florida Atlantic is 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games off an ATS loss.  Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Roll with Florida Atlantic Saturday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +13.5 

Saint Louis wants revenge from a 76-78 (OT) home loss to Dayton on January 17th.  They get their shot at revenge now catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. This is simply too many points tonight. 

I think the Billikens come in undervalued off their loss to Duquesne on Wednesday as 4.5-point home favorites.  It’s pretty easy to see they were overlooking to Duquesne and looking ahead to this showdown with Dayton.  And it’s worth noting that Duquesne is one of the best teams in the conference and also only lost to Dayton by 4. 

Simply put, it’s time to ’sell high’ on Dayton.  We’re starting to see the Flyers overvalued due to being a Top 10 team and winning 11 straight coming in.  But they failed to cover their last two games winning by just 4 at Duquesne as 8-point favorites and by 14 at home over a bad Fordham team as 24-point favorites. 

Dayton is 2-10 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Billikens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage above 60%.  Saint Louis is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Billikens will rise to the occasion and give the Flyers a run for their money.  Take Saint Louis Saturday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana -2 

I love the spot for the Indiana Hoosiers today.  They are highly motivated for a win following three straight losses.  And they have had a full week off having last played Saturday, so they are fresh and ready to go. 

The three losses are easily explainable as two of them came on the road to Penn State and Ohio State and the other they blew a 6-point lead in the final minute to fall 76-77 to Maryland, which owns the best record in the Big Ten. 

Indiana is 12-2 at home this season.  They host a Purdue team that is just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season with its only wins coming at Ohio and at Northwestern by 3.  They lost at Marquette by 10, at Nebraska by 14, at Illinois by 26, at Michigan by 6, at Maryland by 7 and and Rutgers by 7. 

Purdue is 0-6 ATS in conference road games this season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Boilermakers are 2-11 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons.  Purdue only has two days to get ready for the Hoosiers after beating Iowa at home Wednesday.  Bet Indiana Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M +8 

Buzz Williams has the Texas A&M Aggies improving rapidly in his first season on the job.  What has been most impressive is how well the Aggies have played on the road in conference play. 

Indeed, the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in SEC road games this season.  They beat Vanderbilt by 19 as 3.5-point dogs, upset Missouri as 10-point dogs and upset Tennessee as 9.5-point dogs.  They can certainly hang with South Carolina Saturday. 

The Gamecocks only have two days to get ready for Texas A&M after losing 70-84 at Ole Miss on Wednesday.  The Aggies last played on Tuesday and get an extra day of prep for this contest.  I think it’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Gamecocks, who have covered six of their last eight coming in.

Texas A&M is also out for revenge from a 67-81 home loss to South Carolina on January 18th just a few weeks ago.  Well, it was the best shooting game of the season for the Gamecocks as they went 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range, while Texas A&M was just 3-of-14 (21.4%).  It was a complete aberration as the Gamecocks average just 6 made 3’s per game this season and shoot it at a 31.3% clip.  It’s not going to happen again.

South Carolina is 4-15 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog.  Texas A&M is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a dog overall.  The Gamecocks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.