Winning Sports Picks

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF +1

UCF has proven it can hang in the Big 12 in its first season going 8-3 ATS in its 11 Big 12 games.  That includes home wins over Kansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma.  Now they host a Cincinnati team that they can handle here.

Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 to be tough sledding going 3-7 SU in its last 10 games overall.  The Bearcats just lost at home to both Houston and Iowa State and now have to go on the road here against UCF.  This is a brutal stretch that will have taken a lot out of them.

UCF is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season.  The Knights are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games off two consecutive games with 12 or fewer assists.  UCF is 8-1 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Wisconsin +1

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on Wisconsin after going 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  Now they get a break in the schedule here against an Iowa Hawkeyes team that is one of the worst in the Big Ten.

Iowa is 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The three wins came against Michigan, Ohio State and Minnesota.  They were down 20 at home to Minnesota but the Gophers' best player in Dawson Garcia got hurt and they made the big comeback.  They are coming off a 12-point loss at Maryland last time out.

Wisconsin beat Iowa 83-72 at home in their first meeting this season to continue their dominance in this series.  Iowa shot 41.2% from 3 while Wisconsin shot 25% yet the Badgers still won by 11.  The Badgers are now 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 1-9 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Mississippi State -12

Arkansas is a dead team walking.  The Razorbacks are 3-8 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have rarely been competitive losing by 21 at LSU, by 26 at Ole Miss, by 22 at Florida, by 10 at Georgia and by 29 at home to Tennessee last time out.  They are getting blasted on the road going 1-4 SU in their SEC road games with four losses by double-digits and their lone win at Missouri, which is winless in SEC play still.

Mississippi State is in a great spot coming in on a full week of rest after playing last Saturday in a 75-51 win at Missouri.  Arkansas just played on Wednesday in that 29-point home loss to Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have one of the better home-court advantages in the SEC going 9-2 SU at home this season including wins over Tennessee and Auburn, which are the two best teams in the SEC.

Arkansas is 0-7 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 80 points or more.  Arkansas is 3-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on IPFW -9.5

Detroit (1-26) is coming off its first victory of the season with an 81-66 home win over IUPUI as 5.5-point favorites.  IUPUI is the only team that is worse than Detroit in the Horizon League.  Now this is a massive letdown spot for the Titans, and I don't expect them to show up at all after getting that huge monkey off their back.

IPFW crushed Detroit 91-56 as 13-point home favorites in their first meeting this season.  I don't think it's asking much of them to win this game by double-digits to get the cover in the rematch considering the letdown spot for Detroit.

IPFW is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points.  Detroit is 2-8 ATS in home games this season.  The Titans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when revenging a road loss.  Detroit is 1-9 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet IPFW Saturday.

15* Texas/Houston CBS ANNIHILATOR on Texas +10.5

Houston has been grossly overvalued here of late due to being the top-ranked team in KenPom.  The result has been the Cougars going 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are once again overvalued as double-digit home favorites against Texas Saturday.

Texas wants revenge from a 76-72 (OT) home loss to Houston on January 29th less than three weeks ago.  The Longhorns already proved they could play with Houston at home, and they have some very impressive efforts on the road in Big 12 play this season.  They upset TCU 77-66 as 4.5-point road dogs, upset Oklahoma 75-60 as 4.5-point road dogs and upset Cincinnati 74-73 as 5-point road dogs.  This is a veteran team that will relish the hostile atmosphere in Houston.

Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better after 15-plus games.  Bet Texas Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia +3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They are 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall against a brutal schedule.  But now they have had the last week off having played last Saturday to rest and recover.  I expect a big effort from the Bulldogs against their arch rivals in Florida.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Gators.  They have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they are starting to get overvalued, and they were fortunate to escape with an 82-80 home win over LSU as 11-point favorites on Tuesday.

Georgia will be extra motivated for revenge from a 102-98 (OT) loss at Florida on January 27th.  The Gators shot 54.9% from the field and 17-of-20 (85%) from the FT line and still needed OT to get by the Bulldogs.  Things won't come as easy for the Gators on the road this time around.  Georgia is 11-3 SU at home this season while Florida is 2-4 SU in SEC road games with one win at winless Missouri and the other coming by 3 points.

Florida is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after winning four or five of its last six games.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -2.5

Creighton wants revenge from a shocking 99-98 home loss to Butler as 10-point favorites on February 2nd just two weeks ago.  Now the Bluejays come back as only 2.5-point road favorites in the rematch, and I like the value we are getting on them.

Butler shot 55.1% from the field and a ridiculous 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range to pull off that upset.  The Bulldogs won't shoot that well again in the rematch.  Creighton ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense while Butler ranks 31st in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.  The Bluejays are by far the superior team, and it will show Saturday.

Creighton is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after winning two of its last three games.  The Bluejays are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Bulldogs are 10-20 ATS in their last 30 games as underdogs.  Creighton is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Creighton Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Alabama ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 157.5

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Crimson Tide rank 1st in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted tempo in the entire country.  Nate Oats has one of the worst defensive teams he has ever had at Alabama this season as well.

The OVER is 7-2 in Alabama's last nine games overall with 154 or more combined points in all nine games, including 161 or more in five consecutive games.  This is a very low total for a game involving Alabama right now.

Alabama will control the tempo playing at home against a Texas A&M team that likes to slow it down.  But the Aggies have an offense that can keep up with some elite guards.  They rank 33rd in the country in adjusted offense.  Alabama has a problem defending elite guards.

Texas A&M is 20-9 OVER in its last 20 road games.  Alabama is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games.  The Crimson Tide are 10-1 OVER in Saturday games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas State ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Kansas State Wildcats.  They are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall against a brutal schedule.  They lost four straight with three road losses to Iowa State, Houston and Oklahoma State before upsetting Kansas at home to show what they are capable of.  They also hung with BYU in a 6-point road loss as 11-point dogs last time out.

But now Kansas State is rested and ready to go and highly motivated for a victory.  They have had the last week off since that road loss at BYU last Saturday.  The Wildcats will be playing just their 2nd game in 12 days.  Meanwhile, TCU will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days.

Kansas State is 11-2 SU at home this season.  TCU is 2-3 SU in Big 12 road games.  The Wildcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following two consecutive conference games.  Kansas State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after forcing three straight opponents to commit 11 or fewer turnovers.  Kansas State beat TCU 82-61 at home last season.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* New Mexico/SDSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico +6.5

New Mexico has played some of its best basketball on the road this season proving that the Lobos can win away from The Pit.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four MWC road games with three wins by 18 points or more as well as an upset win at Nevada.

Now the Lobos are catching 6.5 points on the road to a San Diego State team that they beat 88-70 at home in their first meeting.  They won by 18 despite shooting just 7-of-24 (29.2%) from 3 and 21-of-31 (67.7%) from the FT line.  There was nothing fluky about that victory at all.  They go from being 3.5-point favorites in that game to 6.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is a 10-point adjustment.  That's too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

New Mexico is 6-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season.  The Lobos are 7-0 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  New Mexico is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with San Diego State including a 76-67 upset win as 8-point road dogs last year.  Bet New Mexico Friday.

15* Utah/USC Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 147.5

The USC Trojans just got their best player in Isiah Collier back from injury.  They are a terrible defensive team regardless, but they are a much better offensive team with Collier in the lineup.  The result has been two consecutive shootouts combining for 167 points with Stanford and 170 with California.

Utah is playing in a ton of shootouts here of late as well combining for 157 with Oregon, 171 with Washington, 204 with Arizona and 162 with Arizona State in four of their last six games.  Utah ranks 77th in adjusted tempo and 43rd in adjusted offense.  USC also likes to play fast ranking 116th in adjusted tempo.

USC is 6-0 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The Trojans are 11-1 OVER after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.  USC is 11-1 OVER vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on California/Washington State UNDER 139.5

Washington State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Cougars rank 303rd in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted defense.  They pride themselves on defense, and they will control the tempo at home tonight, which will be played at a snail's pace against California.

This will be the 2nd meeting of the season between Washington State and California, and the first would have stayed UNDER the total if not for OT.  Cal won 81-75 (OT) at home in a game that was tied 68-68 at the end of regulation for just 136 combined points.

In fact, Cal and Washington State have now combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 11 consecutive meetings, making for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 139.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +20

The Florida Atlantic Owls set some unsustainable expectations when they made their run to the Final 4 last season.  They have been overvalued big time in conference play this season.  They have a target on their backs and are getting everyone's best shot on a nightly basis.

The result has been a 3-9 ATS run over their last 12 games overall.  The Owls aren't blowing anyone out.  They have won several close games during this stretch with six of their last 13 games decided by 4 points or fewer.  They had no business covering against Wichita State last game, winning by 13 as 7.5-point favorites in overtime.

Florida Atlantic won't be motivated at all to beat Temple tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 20-point spread.  They have a huge game on deck at South Florida on Sunday against the team that is leading the conference.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Temple is 1-10 SU in conference play, but all 10 losses came by 18 points or less, and nine by 13 points or fewer.  So they haven't lost by this kind of margin in conference play.  Temple's last six games were all decided by 7 points or fewer or went to OT.  They will be treating this game as their 'national championship' game against FAU.  

Temple has just one loss by more than 18 points all season, making for a 23-1 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 20-point spread.  Florida Atlantic has just one win by more than 15 points in its last 15 games.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +5

It's time to 'sell high' on the UNLV Rebels.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as well.  One of their last four wins came 78-69 at home against Fresno State as 8-point favorites on January 30th.

So now the Bulldogs have quick revenge in mind getting the Rebels at home this time around.  They committed 21 turnovers in that first meeting and still only lost by 9.  They will take much better care of the basketball at home this time around.  They are coming off two straight upset road wins at San Jose State and Air Force, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset in this rematch as well.

UNLV is also in a massive letdown spot coming off an 80-77 road win at New Mexico as 12-point underdogs.  They have another huge game on deck against their biggest rivals in Nevada on Saturday, making this a big sandwich spot for the Rebels.  They won't give Fresno State their full attention tonight as a result.

Plays on underdogs (Fresno State) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as road underdogs in Wednesday games are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Fresno State Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on Seton Hall.  The Pirates have played a few games without their best player in Kadary Richmond (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) here recently that have contributed to a 2-4 SU stretch of their last six games.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season, an 80-54 road loss at Villanova.

Now the Pirates are back home where they will want revenge from a 74-54 road loss at Xavier in their first meeting this season.  They shot 2-of-15 (13.3%) from 3 while Xavier shot 10-of-20 (50%) which was the difference.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.  I believe the Pirates are favored for good reason tonight and will bounce back in a big way now that they are fully healthy.

Xavier is 2-5 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming against DePaul.  Seton Hall is 9-3 SU at home this season with wins over UConn and Marquette.  Their two Big East home losses came by a combined 7 points and they didn't have Richmond in one of them.

The Pirates are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games off a blowout conference loss by 20 points or more.  Bet Seton Hall Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +3.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They upset Rutgers by 15 as 7-point road dogs, upset Indiana by 14 as 7-point road dogs, upset Iowa by 10 as 1-point home dogs and took Northwestern to the wire in a 5-point loss as 7.5-point road dogs.  They cover the spread by a combined 56.5 points in their last four games.

Now the Nittany Lions are undervalued once again as 3.5-point home dogs to Michigan State.  They want revenge from a 92-61 road loss at Michigan State.  They shot 3-of-29 (10.3%) from 3 while the Spartans shot 10-of-21 (47.6%) from 3 in that game.  It's safe to say the Nittany Lions are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and they have been shooting it much better here of late.

Michigan State is 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  The Spartans are in a bit of a letdown spot here as well after a big comeback home win over Illinois over the weekend.

Michigan State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after covering two of its last three games.  The Spartans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after winning three of their last four games.  Penn State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Penn State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better in the 2nd half of the season.  Bet Penn State Wednesday.

20* Ole Miss/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 162.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 14th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 125th in adjusted defense.  They are 18-5 OVER in their 23 games this season, including 12-2 OVER in their 14 home games which are seeing 170.6 combined points per game on average.

Ole Miss is an elite offensive team ranking 30th in adjusted offense but like Kentucky, a terrible defensive team ranking 130th in adjusted defense.  The Rebels are 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 38.7% on the season.  The Wildcats are 1st at 41% on the season.  These are two elite shooting teams, so the OVER is a great bet.

Kentucky is 15-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -9

Wisconsin will be max motivated for a victory tonight to end a 4-game losing streak.  Three of those losses came on the road and the lone home loss was against arguably the best team in the country in Purdue when they shot 3-of-19 from 3 and still only lost by 6 points.  Now they are back home here against a team they can handle in Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their two wins both coming at home against Penn State and Maryland.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in Big Ten road games this season with losses to Penn State, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa.  This will be their toughest road test this season.

Wisconsin beat Ohio State 71-60 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Badgers are 11-2 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  The Buckeyes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games.  Ohio State is 1-8 ATS off a home win this season.  The Buckeyes are 0-7 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers pe game this season.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois State +18.5

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Indiana State Sycamores who are 22-3 and in 1st place in the Missouri Valley.  They have won nine consecutive games and are coming off a hard-fought 73-71 win at Missouri State on Saturday.  I expect them to be flat as a pancake tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 18.5-point spread.

Illinois State is just 11-14 SU this season but has been very competitive in pretty much every game.  In fact, the Redbirds have just one loss by more than 17 points in their last 12 games.  They have played some of their best basketball on the road this season with their last five road games all decided by single-digits.  They upset both Missouri State and Murray State on the road during this stretch and only lost by 3 as 8-point dogs at Southern Illinois.

Illinois State hasn't lost any of its last nine meetings with Indiana State by more than 16 points, making for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Redbirds pertaining to this 18.5-point spread.  Bet Illinois State Tuesday.

15* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +6.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 15-7 SU & 19-3 ATS this season as they best covering team in the entire country.  They have been grossly undervalued all season and remain undervalued here as a 6.5-point road underdog to the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Iowa is 13-10 SU & 9-14 ATS this season, including just 4-8 ATS at home as they are one of the more overvalued teams in the country.  The Hawkeyes are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Michigan by 10 and Ohio State by 2 both at home.  They were also upset by Maryland at home.

Minnesota wants revenge from an 86-77 home loss to Iowa.  The Hawkeyes shot a unsustainable 53.8% in that game while the Gophers shot 5-of-29 (17.2%) from 3.  I think the Golden Gophers are due for some positive shooting regression to say the least in the rematch.

The Gophers are 10-0 ATS off two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better.  Bet Minnesota Sunday.

20* Penn State/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Penn State +8.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets on the road at Rutgers by 15 as 7-point dogs, on the road at Indiana by 14 as 7-point dogs and at home over Utah by 10 as 1-point dogs.  They have cover the spread by a combined 54 points in those three games.

The books still aren't giving the Nittany Lions the respect they deserve today as 8.5-point road dogs at Northwestern.  They want revenge from a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats as 1.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 10th.  That was a rare loss for the Nittany Lions in this series as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats with three outright upsets as underdogs.

Northwestern lost sharp shooter Ty Berry to a knee injury in their 80-68 home win over Nebraska last time out.  Berry averages 11.6 points per game and shoots 43.3% from 3 and 89.5% from the FT line. His loss isn't being factored into this line enough.  Berry had 16 points and 5 rebounds while making 4-of-5 from 3-point range in their first meeting with Penn State.

Penn State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more.  The Nittany Lions are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games as underdogs.  Penn State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Wildcats are due for some 3-point shooting regression, especially without Berry.  They shot 58.3% from 3 in that first meeting and still only won by 4 despite Penn State shooting 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Seton Hall/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 133.5

Seton Hall and Villanova are both dead nuts UNDER teams.  Couple that with the fact that this is an early, sleepy start time at 12:00 EST and I think we have the perfect recipe for a defensive battle in this Big East showdown.

Villanova ranks 338th in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defense.  Seton Hall ranks 294th in adjusted tempo and 68th in adjusted defense.

Villanova is 4-2 UNDER in its last six games overall with 131 or fewer combined points in four of those six games.  Seton Hall is 3-1 UNDER in its last four games overall with 132 or fewer combined points in three of those four games.

Seton Hall is 52-33 UNDER in its last 85 games overall.  Villanova is 6-0 UNDER in its last six home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC/Stanford OVER 151.5

USC just got its best player in Isaiah Collier (15.6 PPG, 4.1 APG) back from injury in an 83-77 win over California on Wednesday.  The Trojans are back to full strength and an elite offensive team with a ton of talent when that's the case.  It's time to 'buy low' on a USC OVER now getting Collier back.

Stanford is a good partner for an OVER.  The Cardinal rank 72nd in adjusted tempo, 81st in adjusted offense and 120th in adjusted defense.  USC likes to play fast too especially with Collier.

USC beat Stanford 93-79 for 172 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The OVER is now 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  They combined for 160 points in their previous meeting as well.

Stanford is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Cardinal are 11-1 OVER at home this season.  USC is 10-1 OVER after failing to cover two of its last three games this season.  The Trojans are 10-1 OVER vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +2.5

This is the toughest spot of the season for Arizona.  They are coming off a 105-99 (3 OT) win at Utah in the altitude on Thursday.  Four starters played at least 44 minutes for the Wildcats.  Now they have to turn around and play in the altitude again in Colorado on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank for the Buffaloes.

Colorado made pretty easy work of Arizona State in an 82-70 home win on Thursday.  The Buffaloes should still be pretty fresh for this one.  They have some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last decade, which has proven to be the case again this season.

Colorado is 13-0 SU at home this season and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  Arizona is 2-3 SU in its last five Pac-12 road games despite being favored in all five.  The two wins both came down to the wire, and the three losses came by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Colorado is 7-2 SU in its last nine home meetings with Arizona.  That includes a 79-63 win in their most recent home meeting.  Arizona is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  The Buffaloes are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that's the case because it hasn't been for much of the season.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +13

This is the toughest spot of the season for the Utah Utes.  They are coming off a very deflating 105-99 (3 OT) home loss to Arizona on Thursday.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat to face the Arizona Sun Devils on Saturday.  They won't have anything left in the tank as their three best players in Madsen (51 minutes), Smith (49) and Carlson (44) have to be running on fumes.

That is going to make it very difficult for the Utes to get margin on the Sun Devils.  Arizona State clearly matches up well with Utah beating them 82-70 as 6-point home dogs in their first meeting this season.  The Sun Devils are now 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Utes.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a home loss.  Arizona State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after two straight games attempting 10 or fewer free throws than their opponents.  The Utes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma State/Oklahoma UNDER 140

Oklahoma ranks 173rd in adjusted tempo and 16th in adjusted defense.  Oklahoma State ranks 200th in adjusted tempo, 90th in adjusted defense and just 170th in adjusted offense.  Both of these are UNDER teams.

That has been on display in recent head-to-head meetings between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  Indeed, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have combined for 106, 132, 128, 108 and 119 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings.  That's an average of 118.6 combined points per game, which is 22.6 points per game less than this 140-point total.  There's a ton of value on the UNDER to say the least.

Oklahoma is 10-3 UNDER vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  The Sooners are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 home games after two straight games with 12 or fewer assists.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +7.5

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's after losing five of their last seven games overall.  They want revenge from one of those defeats, a 73-72 home loss to Marquette on January 20th.  Now they go from being 1.5-point favorites in that game to 7.5-point road dogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Marquette off six consecutive victories while also going 5-1 ATS during that stretch.  They have had the last week off, and while that's usually a good thing, it could work against them here because they were on a roll.  It's just like the NFL where you want to back teams who were poor going into their bye and fade teams that were on a roll going into their bye.

St. John's is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Red Storm are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCLA +1.5

Mick Cronin has the UCLA Bruins playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Arizona by 6 as 18-point dogs when they blew an 18-point lead.  Five of their six wins have come by 8 points or more.

Now the Bruins have their sights set on revenge from a 66-57 home loss to California as 6.5-point favorites.  That was back when they were playing very poorly and banged up.  This is a different UCLA team this time around.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Cal off consecutive wins over Arizona State and USC, which are two teams playing some of the worst basketball in the Pac-12 right now.  The Golden Bears should not be favored in this contest.

The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in road games following an ATS win this season.  The Golden Bears are 10-20 ATS in their last 30 home games.  California is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. marginal winning teams (51-60%).  Bet UCLA Saturday.

15* Gonzaga/Kentucky CBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 166.5

Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 11th in adjusted tempo and 5th in adjusted offense but just 102nd in adjusted defense.  They are 17-5 OVER in their 22 games this season, including 11-2 OVER in their 13 home games which are seeing 171.4 combined points per game on average.

Gonzaga is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulldogs rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 28th in adjusted offense.  They are scoring 84.7 points per game on 50.7% shooting this season.  These teams are unfamiliar with one another with this rare non-conference game in February, which will favor the OVER.

Kentucky is 14-1 OVER after a game with 155 or more combined points this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on NC State/Wake Forest OVER 149

Wake Forest is an elite offensive team.  They score 80.7 points per game overall and 84.9 points per game at home.  They rank 27th in adjusted offense and 109th in adjusted tempo, so they like to play pretty fast as well.

NC State also likes to play pretty fast ranking 120th in adjusted tempo and 100th in adjusted offense.  The Wolfpack are scoring 75.2 points per game this season.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between NC State and Wake Forest with 159, 164, 156 and 177 combined points.  NC State beat Wake Forest 83-76 earlier this season for 159 combined points despite these two teams combining to go just 6-of-26 (23.1%) from 3-point range.  I have to think they will only shoot better in the rematch.

Wake Forest is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games off two consecutive blowout wins by 20 points or more.  NC State is 51-32 OVER in its last 83 road games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida +2.5

I love the spot for the Florida Gators.  They have had the last week off since a tough 67-66 road loss to Texas A&M last Saturday.  They are foaming at the mouth and ready to take their shot at upsetting the Auburn Tigers in Gainesville on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Auburn is in the ultimate letdown spot.  The Tigers are coming off a 99-81 home win over their biggest rivals in the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They got revenge on Alabama after losing on the road to them in their first meeting this season.  That was on Wednesday, so the Tigers have only had two days to get ready for the Gators.

Florida is 9-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming to Kentucky by 2.  Auburn is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three SEC road games losing at Alabama by 4 and at Mississippi State by 6 with its lone win coming at Ole Miss.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Auburn.  Bet Florida Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU +8

I love the spot for TCU Saturday.  They have had the last week off since a 77-66 home loss to Texas.  They want revenge from a 73-72 home loss to Iowa State on January 20th in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to take the Cyclones to the wire at the very least, so we are getting some great value on the Horned Frogs.

Iowa State will be playing its 3rd game in 8 days and is in a letdown spot following a 70-65 upset road win at Texas on Tuesday.  The Cyclones won't be all that motivated to beat TCU again, and they are starting to get a little too much respect after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Three of the last four meetings between Iowa State and TCU were decided by 3 points or less.  TCU is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Horned Frogs are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.  TCU is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet TCU Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Rutgers Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin -4

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers.  They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak and will be max motivated for a victory.  They lost in OT at Nebraska, went 3-for-19 from 3 in a 6-point home loss to Purdue, and were upset at Michigan as 8-point favorites last time out.

We will 'buy low' on the Badgers and 'sell high' on Rutgers, which is coming off two consecutive upset road wins at Michigan and at Maryland.  They came back from 15 points down in the 2H to beat Michigan and clipped Maryland by 3.  They had lost their previous three games and none were really competitive, losing by 25 at Illinois, by 8 at home to Purdue and by 15 at home to Penn State.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series.  The road team is now 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  This is a very short number for the Badgers to be laying today considering they are by far the superior team.  The rank 11th in offense and 31st in defense while Rutgers ranks 297th in offense.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* SDSU/Nevada MWC No-Brainer on Nevada -1.5

Nevada is 11-1 SU at home this season with home of the best home-court advantages in the Mountain West.  Their last two home games have been very impressive with a 77-64 win as 3.5-point favorites over Colorado State and a 90-60 win over San Jose State as 11.5-point favorites.  But neither were as impressive as their 77-63 win as 5.5-point dogs at Utah State last time out, so the Wolf Pack are playing their best basketball of the season right now.

Now they get a chance to boost their NCAA Tournament resume today with a home win over a ranked San Diego State team.  But the Aztecs have been far from dominant over the last month.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Most concerning has been their performances on the road.

The Aztecs only beat San Jose State 81-78 as 10-point favorites, lost 88-70 at New Mexico as 3.5-point dogs, lost 67-66 as 1-point favorites at Boise State and lost 79-71 as 2.5-point dogs at Colorado State.  They are now 1-4 ATS in their last five MWC road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Nevada beat San Diego State 75-66 as a 2.5-point home dog last season.  Bet Nevada Friday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are a perfect 12-0 SU at home this season and should not be 6-point home underdogs to the Arizona Wildcats tonight.  This line should be much closer to PK.  The Utes will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game all season, and I expect them to pull off the upset to boost their tournament resume.  We'll take the points for some insurance.

Arizona has been very shaky on the road in Pac-12 play this season.  The Wildcats are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 road games with three bad upset losses.  They lost by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.  The Utes are 201-152 ATS in their last 353 home games.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Drexel/UNC-Wilmington OVER 136.5

UNC-Wilmington is an elite offensive team scoring 80.7 points per game overall and 91.9 points per game at home.  This total of 136.5 is very low for a game involving Wilmington.  Six of their last seven games have seen 147 or more combined points.

Drexel has gone OVER in four of its last six games with 137 or more combined points in four of those six games.  And they haven't faced may elite offensive teams like Wilmington during this stretch.

Drexel beat Wilmington 78-63 for 141 combined points in their first meeting this season on January 4th.  Wilmington shot 31% from the field and 6-of-30 (20%) from 3 in that game and it still went OVER the 138.5-point total.  Wilmington is due for some positive shooting regression at home in the rematch, where they are scoring 91.9 PPG this season as stated before.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Penn State ML +100

The Iowa Hawkeyes have some of the biggest home/road splits in the Big Ten since Fran McCaffery took over as head coach.  That has proven to be the case again this season as they are 2-5 SU in true road games this season.  They should not be favored on the road against Penn State tonight.

The Nittany Lions are improving rapidly under Mike Rhoades this season.  They beat Rutgers 61-46 as 7-point road dogs and Indiana 85-71 as 7-point road dogs in their last two games coming in.  They also recently upset Wisconsin at home.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Iowa is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Hawkeyes are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Nittany Lions' ability to take care of the ball against Iowa's pressure will be their key to victory tonight.  Bet Penn State Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -5

I love the spot for the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.  They will be max motivated coming off two consecutive losses to Nebraska (OT) and Purdue (by 6).  They shot 1-for-13 from 3 in the 2H against Purdue otherwise they would have pulled off the upset.

Now the Badgers take a big step down in competitive here against one of the most overrated teams in all of college basketball in the Michigan Wolverines.  The Wolverines are 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall with their lone win coming against their biggest rivals in Ohio State, which is also way down this season.  Michigan and Ohio State currently reside in the last place in the Big Ten.

Michigan lost by 10 at home to Rutgers, by 19 at Michigan State, by 10 at home to Iowa, by 32 at Purdue and by 15 at home to Illinois in its last five games.  So the Wolverines haven't even been competitive despite playing three games at home during this stretch.  It's not asking much for the Badgers to cover this 5-point spread on the road tonight.

Michigan is 1-12 ATS after failing to cover four or five of its last six games this season.  Juwan Howard has lost this team and it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't finish the season.  A blowout loss to Wisconsin may be the last straw.  Bet Wisconsin Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +21.5

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-17 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  They haven't lost any of their last nine games by more than 11 points.

I backed the Beacons in a similar spot against Drake as my 25* MVC Game of the Year.  Drake was coming off a huge win over Indiana State the game prior and was in a letdown spot.  That proved to be the case as Drake only won by 11 as similar 20.5-point favorites.

Now it is Indiana State in the letdown spot.  The Sycamores are coming off a huge 75-67 home win over Drake on Saturday that solidified their spot in 1st place in the MVC.  They beat Bradley in OT two games before and were flat in a 6-point win at Belmont the next game, which was sandwiched in between the Bradley/Drake games.  I fully expect the Sycamores to be flat tonight, which is going to make it very difficult for them to cover this inflated 21.5-point spread.

Valparaiso is 9-1 ATS as a road dog or PK this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more.  The Beacons are 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  They have done their best work on the road in 2023-24 and will give the Sycamores more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacific +21.5

St. Mary's is in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They finally won at Gonzaga 64-62 Saturday night.  After getting that monkey off their back, their motivation to beat Pacific is going to be at zero, especially since they just beat this team 76-28 at home on January 25th just over a week ago.

Pacific shot 10-of-50 (20%) including 3-of-17 (17.6%) from 3 in that blowout loss to St. Mary's.  But the Tigers have been much more competitive since that defeat.  They only lost by 9 as 24.5-point home dogs to Gonzaga, by 5 as 2.5-point home dogs to Portland and by 6 as 22-point dogs at San Francisco.  They are grossly undervalued right now due to that blowout loss to St. Mary's.

Pacific is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog of 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12 points per game or more after 15-plus games.  This one will be a lot closer than this line indicates simply because the Tigers want to redeem themselves and the Gaels want nothing to do with this game in a massive letdown spot.  Bet Pacific Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5

Minnesota is the best covering team in the entire country going 14-7 SU & 18-3 ATS.  That includes 12-3 SU & 14-1 ATS at home this season.  The Golden Gophers continue to lack the respect they deserve as 3.5-point home dogs to the Michigan State Spartans tonight.

Minnesota wants revenge from a 76-66 loss at Michigan State on January 18th just three weeks ago.  But PG Elijah Hawkins (8.8 PPG, 7.8 APG) missed that game for the Gophers.  He is their floor general and not having him on the road against the Spartans was a massive loss.  Having him back for the rematch will make a massive difference.

Michigan State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 road games following a win.  The Spartans are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after covering two of their last three against the spread.  The Spartans are 1-3 SU in their last four Big Ten road game with their lone win coming by 2 points at Maryland.  Bet Minnesota Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +1

I love the spot for Oklahoma tonight.  They have lost three of their last four games coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They are back home tonight where they are 11-2 SU at home this season.

BYU is coming off consecutive wins over Texas at home and at West Virginia.  This is a tough travel spot for the Cougars traveling from Provo to Morgantown and now all the way to Norman.  This is a tired BYU team that I think runs out of gas tonight against a Sooners team that wants it more.

BYU is 64-96 ATS in its last 160 road games against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games.  Porter Moser is 9-2 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game as the coach of Oklahoma.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* Clemson/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

The UNC Tar Heels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 93-84 win Saturday night against their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils.  They already beat Clemson on the road earlier this season and won't be that motivated to beat them again.

Clemson goes from a 3-point home favorite against UNC in that first meeting to an 8.5-point road dog in the rematch.  That's a massive adjustment.  The Tigers will be highly motivated for a victory after losing two of their last three.  They lost by a single point at Duke and lost by 1 at home to Virginia.

Clemson has some 3-point luck coming their way.  The Tigers shot 1-of-18 (5.6%) from 3 against North Carolina in that first meeting.  They are shooting 30.1% from 3 in ACC play but are a much better shooting team than that making 35.2% on the season.  Opponents are only making 26.8% from 3 against UNC in ACC play, so the Tar Heels are due for some regression in that department.  Opponents are hitting 37.3% from 3 against Clemson in ACC play, so they are due for some positive regression.  The Tigers have been one of the most unlucky teams in the ACC.

Clemson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after committing five or fewer turnovers last game.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Georgia Tech OVER 150

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.7 points per game this season.  In fact, 11 of Wake Forest's last 12 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 25th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech ranks 94th in adjusted offense and 182nd in adjusted defense making them more of an OVER team.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall with 147 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.

Wake Forest is 14-4 OVER in its last 18 road games.  The Demon Deacons are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games after scoring 95 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -3.5

What more does South Carolina have to do to get some respect? The Gamecocks are 19-3 SU & 16-5 ATS this season including 11-1 SU at home.  They have covered 5 straight coming into this one with upset road wins at Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia as well as home wins over Kentucky by 17 and Missouri by 8.

Ole Miss has not fared well on the road in SEC play.  The Rebels are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four road games losing by 26 at Tennessee, by 9 at LSU and by 23 at Auburn with their lone road win coming against an overrated Texas A&M team.

South Carolina is a balanced team that ranks 58th in adjusted offense and 42nd in adjusted defense.  They are 24th in effective FG percentage defense and only allow 32.2% 3-point shooting.  Ole Miss is great on offense but just 143rd in adjusted defense.  They are 352nd in allowing offensive rebounds defensively.  They rely heavily on the 3-pointer on offense, making this a great matchup for South Carolina.  They Gamecocks will dominate on the glass in this one as well which will be the key to victory.

South Carolina is 11-1 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better this season.  The Gamecocks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better.  Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game.  Bet South Carolina Tuesday. 

15* CBB Sunday Night Line Mistake on Illinois -9.5

Nebraska has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country.  The Huskers haven't lost a Big Ten home game, but it is also true they haven't won a Big Ten road game.  The Huskers are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their five Big Ten road games losing by 11 at Minnesota, by 16 at Wisconsin, by 18 at Iowa, by 5 at Rutgers and by 22 at Maryland.

Now this is a terrible spot for the Huskers coming off their big OT win over Wisconsin at home on Thursday.  They have just two days off in between games to get ready for this game at Illinois.  They are a banged up team right now with a laundry list of injuries to boot.

Now they must travel to face a rested Illinois team that has had the last four days off since a 87-75 win at Ohio State.  The Fighting Illini have been one of the most underrated teams in the country going 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They just got their best player in Terrance Shannon Jr. back and are a real threat to win the Big Ten and make a deep run in the tournament.  I expect them to win this game by double-digits today to give us the cover.

Illinois is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Nebraska with the last two wins coming by 16 points each.  Nebraska is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 Big Ten road games.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Illinois Sunday.

20* Purdue/Wisconsin CBS No-Brainer on Wisconsin +2.5

The Wisconsin Badgers should not be home underdogs to the Purdue Boilermakers today.  The Badgers are 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season.  This will be Purdue's toughest road test of the entire season today.

Purdue's six Big Ten road games have come against Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers.  They lost at Northwestern and lost by 16 at Nebraska as 7.5-point favorites.  Wisconsin took Nebraska to OT last time out and lost in what was a lookahead spot.  They will come back fully focused today.

Purdue is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following six or more consecutive wins.  The Boilermakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as road favorites of 6 points or less or PK.  The Badgers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games vs. top teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Wisconsin is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Purdue with both narrow losses coming by 4 and 2 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

25* ACC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Syracuse/Wake Forest OVER 150.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 79.8 points per game this season.  In fact, 10 of Wake Forest's last 11 games have seen 147 or more combined points.  They rank 38th in adjusted offense.  This total is 150.5 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

It is also too low for a game involving Syracuse, which is another dead nuts OVER team.  The Orange rank 41st in adjusted tempo this season.  They just combined for 155 points with Boston College last time out and have allowed 49.2% or higher shooting in three consecutive games.

Wake Forest and Syracuse have combined for at least 151 points in three of their last four meetings.  Syracuse is 12-4 OVER in its last 16 conference road games.  Wake Forest is 32-19 OVER in its last 51 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oregon State +8

The USC Trojans have been broken since losing PG Isiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) in a home loss to Washington State on January 10th.  They are 0-6 SU in those six games with all six losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 15-point home loss to UCLA and a 9-point home loss to Oregon in their last two games coming in.

They have rarely even been competitive.  They did get Boogie Ellis back from injury, but Bronnie James has been a major disappointment this season.  He is being forced to play PG and it isn't his natural position.  The Trojans aren't getting much from their big men either.

Oregon State has been grossly undervalued in Pac-12 play.  The Beavers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with three road losses by 8 points or fewer during this stretch.  They beat USC 86-70 at home to start this stretch on January 30th.

USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 153.5

This is a matchup between two of the best defensive teams in the country.  North Carolina ranks 4th in adjusted defense while Duke ranks 30th.  UNC likes to try to get out in transition, but Duke is great at not allowing fast break points.  The same can be said for UNC.

Duke is 6-2 UNDER in all road games this season and we're seeing just 141.5 combined points per game in these games.  UNC is 9-1 UNDER vs. conference opponents this season.  Duke is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine road games off two straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 Saturday road games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +7.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers are as healthy as they have been all season and improving rapidly under first-year head coach Josh Eilert.  The Mountaineers have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games with outright upsets over Texas as 6-point dogs, Kansas as 10-point dogs and Cincinnati as 4-point dogs.

Now the Mountaineers are once again catching too many points at home against BYU as 7.5-point dogs today.  This is a long road trip for the Cougars and one of their toughest of the season.  They lost their last road game at Texas Tech, only beat UCF by 5 and lost at Baylor by 9 in their last three road games.

West Virginia is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 home games off a home win.  The Mountaineers are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 games vs. good offensive teams that score 84 points per game or more.  The Big 12 highway will cool the Cougars off once again today.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Tech -4

Texas Tech is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games overall with its only two losses coming on the road to Houston and TCU, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12.  The Red Raiders upset both Texas and Oklahoma on the road during this stretch.

Off that road loss to TCU, the Red Raiders return home today where they are 11-0 SU on the season.  They take on a Cincinnati team that has been vulnerable on the road.  The Bearcats are 1-5 SU in their last six games played away from home, including an upset loss at West Virginia last time out.

This is a tough spot for Cincinnati having just two days in between games flying back from West Virginia and now flying out to Lubbock.  The Red Raiders have had the last three days off and very little travel from TCU back to Lubbock.  The spot really favors the home team as a result.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +10.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their poor 7-14 SU record.  But the Fighting Irish have gone 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and they haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 12 points.

Now they are catching double-digits against a Pittsburgh team that hasn't been very good at home this season.  The Panthers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their five ACC home games this season with their lone win coming by 5 points, and all four losses coming by 9 points or more.

Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Fighting Irish is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +17.5

Florida Atlantic has been grossly overvalued due to making the Final 4 last year.  They also gets their opponents' best shots with a target on their back as well.  The expectations from that Final 4 run coupled with that target have made it very difficult for the Owls to live up to expectations.

Florida Atlantic is now 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Owls haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 15 points, making for an 11-0 system backing Tulsa pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.

Tulsa is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Tulsa has just one loss by more than 15 points the entire season.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -5

Indiana State wants revenge from a 89-78 loss at Drake on January 10th.  The Bulldogs shot the lights out in that game going 10-of-25 (40%) from 3.  They will be much less comfortable on the road in the rematch tonight.

The Sycamores are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season outscoring their opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 90.6 points per game and allowing 64.1 points per game at home.  

Drake is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five road games losing outright as 7-point favorites at UAB, outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont and outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB.  This will be Drake's toughest road test of the season tonight.

Drake is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Sycamores are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -2

This is a good time to 'buy low' on Utah coming off two consecutive road losses.  The Utes are a much different team at home.  Indeed, they are 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20.8 points per game.

Now they take on a Colorado team that has some of the biggest home/road splits in the country over the last several seasons.  That has been the case again this season as Colorado is 12-0 at home but just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in all games played away from Boulder.

Utah is 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home meetings with Colorado.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS against a good team that wins 60-80% of their games this season.  The Buffaloes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso PK

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the MVC because of their poor 6-16 SU record.  But the Beacons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and continuing to deliver for backers.  Now they are going to get rewarded for their efforts with a SU victory at home Saturday.

Valparaiso wants revenge from a 78-75 loss at Evansville just two weeks ago on January 17th.  They lost by just 3 despite Evansville shooting 50.9% from the floor and a ridiculous 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3.  They aren't going to shoot that well on the road this time around.

Valparaiso is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Evansville.  The Purple Aces are 0-5 SU in their last five road games with losses by 7, 49, 36, 14 and 18 points.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Charlotte -6.5

Charlotte is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The 49ers are 13-7 SU & 12-6 ATS this season.  They have been especially dominant at home, going 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  They beat FAU, North Texas and UAB at home this season, which are three of their biggest contenders to win the AAC.

Now they take on lowly East Carolina, which has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Pirates have lost by 15 at FAU and by 8 at UAB and they won't be able to hang with Charlotte, either.

The 49ers have a big rest and preparation advantage heading into this one.  They have had the last week off since upsetting Tulane 75-71 as 3.5-point road dogs last time out.  They improved to 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  ECU just lost 71-60 at home to South Florida on Wednesday and now only has two days to get ready for Charlotte.

The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in thier last eight home games after playing a road game.  Charlotte is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine home meetings with East Carolina.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas/TCU OVER 149

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 61st in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted offense.  They like to get out and run and will control the tempo playing at home today.  They are scoring 83.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting, including 85.5 points per game on 50.3% shooting at home.

Texas ranks 25th in adjusted offense.  The Longhorns are scoring 76.6 points per game on 48% shooting.  They have the guards to get out and run with TCU as well.  The Longhorns have scored at least 71 points in 12 of their last 13 games overall.

Texas is 7-1 OVER in conference games this season.  TCU is 17-6 OVER in its last 23 games after scoring 85 points or more in two consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-2 in TCU's last eight games overall with 151 or more combined points in five of them.  Texas and their opponents have combined for at least 145 points in seven of their last eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.  

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota PK

Northwestern is coming off a crushing 105-96 (OT) loss to Purdue on Wednesday.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice.  I fully expect the Wildcats to be flat and tired today after having just two days off in between games.

Minnesota is rested and ready to go after beating Penn State 83-74 last Saturday.  The Golden Gophers have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Northwestern.  I expect them to put it to use today and get the job done.

Minnesota is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Gophers have gone 13-7 SU & 17-3 ATS this season.  That includes 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS at home.  Northwestern is going to cool off from 3 today as Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in thier last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or better.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's.  The Red Storm have lost four of their last five games with three of those losses coming on the road and a 1-point home loss to Marquette.  They will be more motivated to win this game against UConn than any other game all season.

The Red Storm are also out for revenge from a 69-65 road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Now they get them at home where they are 8-2 SU with that 1-point loss to Marquette being their lone home loss in conference play.  They beat Xavier by 15, Butler by 16, Providence by 2 and Villanova by 20 in their other four Big East home games.

Alex Karaban (14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is questionable for the Huskies today after suffering an ankle injury against Providence last time out.  Rick Pitino is 50-26 ATS when revenging a road loss as a head coach.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -7.5

Dayton is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Flyers are 17-3 this season including 10-0 at home.  They rank 16th in adjusted offense and 56th in adjusted defense as head coach Anthony Grant has the most efficient offensive team he has had in his time at Dayton.

St. Bonaventure is getting too much respect from its consecutive home wins over St. Joe's and VCU.  The Bonnies have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three road games losing by 11 at Richmond, by 9 at George Mason and by 4 at Duquesne, which was previously 0-6 in conference play prior to that win.

The Bonnies really struggle on the offensive end, which is why I don't think they can keep up with the Flyers.  They have shot 40% or less in six of their last nine games overall.  Dayton has won 12 of its last 14 home meetings with St. Bonaventure, including four straight home wins in this series with the last three coming by 18, 26 and 10 points.  Bet Dayton Friday.

15* Oregon/USC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oregon -2

The USC Trojans have been broken since losing PG Isiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) in a home loss to Washington State on January 10th.  They are 0-5 SU in those five games with all five losses coming by 8 points or more.  That includes a 50-65 home loss to UCLA last time out.

They have rarely even been competitive.  They did get Boogie Ellis back from injury, but Bronnie James has been a major disappointment this season.  He is being forced to play PG and it isn't his natural position.  The Trojans aren't getting much from their big men either.

Oregon has gotten healthy and is playing like a legit contender in the Pac-12.  The Ducks are 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming on the road to Colorado and Utah which are two very tough places to play, and at home to Arizona.

Oregon has had little trouble winning at USC.  The Ducks are 14-8 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 trips to USC.  Oregon is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 80 points or more.  USC is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 home games after scoring 55 points or less.  Bet Oregon Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on North Dakota State +9.5

This number has been set too high for a rivalry game between North Dakota State and South Dakota State tonight.  Asking the Jackrabbits to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Each of the last 12 meetings between South Dakota State and North Dakota State were decided by 10 points or less.  11 of those 12 meetings were decided by 6 points or fewer.  The Bison haven't lost to the Jackrabbits by more than 6 points in any of their last 12 meetings, making for a 12-0 system backing them pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.  Bet North Dakota State Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 144.5

Rutgers is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Scarlet Knights rank 9th in adjusted defense and 257th in adjusted offense.  This total of 144.5 is way too high for a game involving Rutgers.

A big reason it is higher than normal is because Penn State does play faster than every other Big Ten team, but they aren't going to control the tempo on the road here.  Rutgers is going to control the tempo and slow this thing down to a snail's pace.

Rutgers' last five home games have all seen 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation and all five would have went UNDER the total if not for OT.  They combined for 128 points with Purdue, 138 points with Nebraska at the end of regulation, 123 with Indiana, 117 with Stonehill and 130 with Mississippi State.

The UNDER is 10-0 in the last 10 meetings between Penn State and Rutgers with 142 or fewer combined points in all 10 meetings, including 133 or fewer combined points in nine of those 10 games.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +20.5

The Drake Bulldogs are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off a 77-63 home win as 9.5-point favorites against their in-state rivals in Northern Iowa, who were without their best player.  And now they have an even bigger game on deck on the road Saturday at Indiana State that is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley.

Sandwiched in between those games is this contest against Valparaiso, which has one of the worst records in the conference.  The Bulldogs are just going to feel like they can show up and win this one, and they won't be giving the Beacons their full attention.  So getting 20.5 points with Valpo is a tremendous value tonight given the awful spot for Drake.

But this Valpo team has been no pushover.  The Beacons have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are much better than they get credit for.  They haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 11 points.  They are 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch losing by 6 as 12.5-point dogs at Illinois-Chicago, winning outright at Illinois State by 9 as 10-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Evansville as 7-point dogs and losing by just 6 at Southern Illinois as 13.5-point dogs.

Valparaiso is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Drake.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.  Drake hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Valpo by more than 18 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Beacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  The Beacons are 8-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Wake Forest +2

I love the spot for Wake Forest tonight.  They will be the much fresher team as they have been off since January 22nd and have had eight days off in between games.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset at Pitt tonight.

Pitt is in a brutal spot coming off three consecutive road games against Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami.  This is a tired Panthers team and one that is in a bit of a letdown spot after winning two of those three games on the highway.

Pitt has one of the worst home-court advantages in the ACC.  Indeed, the Panthers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS at home in ACC play losing by 9 as 1.5-point favorites to Clemson, by 11 as 6.5-point favorites to Syracuse, by 22 as 5-point dogs to Duke and by 13 as 3.5-point dogs to UNC.  They fall to 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in ACC play tonight.

Pittsburgh is 2-8 ATS vs. good teams that win 60-80% of their games this season.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +4

West Virginia is as healthy as they have been all season right now and a dangerous team in the Big 12 moving forward as a result.  We have seen that on display in their last two home games as the Mountaineers pulled off the outright upsets over Kansas 91-85 as 10-point dogs and Texas 76-73 as 6-point dogs.

Now the Mountaineers are catching 4 points at home tonight to the Cincinnati Bearcats in a game I fully expect them to win outright.  Cincinnati is coming off a 68-57 home win over UCF against a Knights team that was missing two key players.  The Bearcats were 1-4 SU in their previous five games with their lone win coming by 4 at home over TCU.  They have only played six games away from home all season and are 2-4 SU in those games.

Cincinnati is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 143

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.2 points per game this season.  They are allowing 79.6 points per game in all games played away from home.  This total is 143 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

In fact, nine of Wake Forest's last 10 games have seen 147 or more combined points, which makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143-point total.  Pitt is more of an under team than an over team, but the Panthers will get theirs on offense and this game will sail OVER.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between Pitt and Wake Forest with 144 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  The last two meetings saw 160 and 166 combined points.  The OVER is 14-2 in Wake's last 16 January games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss PK

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect? The Rebels are 17-3 SU this season including a perfect 11-0 SU at home.  Chris Beard is making an immediate impact on this team in his first season and proving he's one of the best head coaches in the country.

Mississippi State is coming off a huge upset home win over Auburn.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its three SEC road games this season losing by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina, losing by 13 as 6.5-point dogs at Kentucky and losing by 9 as 4.5-point dogs at Florida.

Ole Miss is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in SEC home games this season beating Florida by 18 as 3-point dogs, beating Vanderbilt by 13 as 10-point favorites and crushing Arkansas by 26 as 8.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers this season.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/TCU OVER 147

TCU is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Horned Frogs rank 64th in adjusted tempo and 26th in adjusted offense.  Now they play a Texas Tech team that ranks 16th in adjusted offense.  The Horned Frogs will control the tempo playing at home in an up and down game, and both teams are going to be very efficient in scoring the basketball.

We saw that on display over the weekend with TCU beating Baylor 105-102 in OT and Texas Tech beating Oklahoma 85-84 in regulation.  The Red Raiders have scored at least 76 points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  The Hornets Frogs have scored at least 77 points in five of their last eight games overall and 72 or more in seven of those eight.

In their final meeting last season TCU beat Texas Tech 83-82 for 165 combined points.  It will be more of the same here again tonight as many realize TCU is a dead nuts OVER team, but most don't realize that Texas Tech has been the most efficient offensive team in Big 12 play this season.

Texas Tech is 11-3 OVER in its last 14 road games.  TCU is 7-1 OVER vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game this season.  The Red Raidres are 9-2 OVER vs. good shooting teams making 45% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Duke/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +3.5

I love the spot for Virginia Tech tonight.  They are coming off a 91-67 blowout home victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday and get to stay at home here.  They will be the much fresher team in this matchup despite playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

Duke will also be playing its 2nd game in 3 days but has to travel.  The Blue Devils expended a ton of energy in their 72-71 win over Clemson on Saturday at home.  They also won in dramatic fashion with two free throws just before the buzzer to eek out the win.  Now they are primed for a letdown as well.

Virginia Tech has a big home-court advantage going 10-1 SU at home this season.  The lone loss came by 4 points to Miami.  The Hokies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blue Devils and always play them tough in Blacksburg.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings.

Virginia Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  I expect the Hokies to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Purdue/Rutgers UNDER 142

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted defense and is an elite defensive team.  Rutgers ranks 13th in adjusted defense and is an elite defensive team as well.  It's safe to say points will be very hard to come by in this game between Purdue and Rutgers Sunday.

Five of the last seven meetings between Purdue and Rutgers have seen 138 or fewer combined points.  This total of 142 is too high today when you look at the head-to-head series.

Rutgers' last four home games have all seen 138 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation and all four would have went UNDER the total if not for OT.  They combined for 138 points with Nebraska at the end of regulation, 123 with Indiana, 117 with Stonehill and 130 with Mississippi State.

Rutgers is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Purdue has went over the total in five of its last six against bad defensive teams and that has inflated this total as well.    We'll take advantage of the value and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on North Texas +9.5

Florida Atlantic is grossly overvalued right now.  The Owls are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone cover coming in a 13-point win over lowly Rice as a 12-point favorites.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 15 points.  You're paying a tax on FAU after making the Final 4 last year, and they just get everyone's best shot now with a target on their back.

I think North Texas' best shot will be good enough to stay within single-digits today if not pull off the outright upset.  The Mean Green are 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just recently got back two of their top five scorers in Rubin Jones (11.7 PPG) and John Buggs III (7.5 PPG) from injury and are at full strength after these two have both been out for most of January.  Having them back makes them a real contender moving forward.

This has been a very tightly-contested series in recent meetings with each of the last three meetings being decided by 4 points or less.  FAU hasn't beaten North Texas by more than 6 points in any of their last five meetings.  Asking the Owls to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet North Texas Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5

I love the spot for Penn State tonight.  The Nittany Lions have had the last week off to rest and get ready for Minnesota.  They were last seen at home upsetting Wisconsin 87-83 and have a pretty great home-court advantage going 8-2 SU at home this season.

They will certainly have the rest advantage over Minnesota, which lost 61-59 at home to Wisconsin on Tuesday.  That's the kind of loss that can beat a young team like Minnesota twice.  It was their biggest rivals in the Badgers and they missed several point blank layups at the end to tie the game.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Penn State today.

The Nittany Lions are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 January home games.  Penn State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games off a conference road loss.  The Nittany Lions are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Gophers.  Penn State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 8-plus points per game.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison +2.5

I love the spot for James Madison today.  They will be out for revenge from a 59-55 home loss to Appalachian State as 7-point favorites on January 13th exactly two weeks ago today.  Now the books have adjusted this number 9.5 points for flipping home courts, which is way too big of an adjustment.

The spot really favors James Madison.  They have had the last two days off after making easy work of Old Dominion 78-62 on the road on Wednesday.  Meanwhile, Appalachian State only has one day off in between games after beating Georgia Southern 84-74 as a 16-point favorite on Thursday.

The Dukes have actually played their best basketball on the highway this season going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in all true/neutral road games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* MVC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Indiana State OVER 151.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 37th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted offense.  They can simply fill it up and quickly on offense averaging 85.9 points per game on the season and 90.0 points per game at home.

Bradley has their best offensive team of the Brian Wardle era but they aren't as good defensively as they have been in previous years.  They rank 76th in adjusted offense while scoring 80.0 points per game in conference play this season.

Indiana State beat Bradley 85-77 on the road in their first meeting this season for 162 combined points.  Bradley only shot 44.6% as a team and 6-of-20 (30%) from 3 in that game and can be expected to shoot it a little better in the rematch.  Indiana State did what it does and was right on par with its season averages in that first meeting and can be expected to top 80 in the rematch as well.

Bradley is 13-6 OVER In all games this season.  Indiana State is 21-11 OVER in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Indiana State's last five home games have all seen 152 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +8.5

Drake is overvalued after going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  This is a tough spot for Drake after having their four-game winning streak snapped in a 83-80 (2 OT) loss at Missouri State on Wednesday.  That game will have taken a lot out of them, and now they only have two days to get ready for Northern Iowa.

The spot really favors the Panthers, who have had the last three days off after a 70-63 home win over Evansville.  The Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now after playing a brutal non-conference schedule.  They have gone 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming to Indiana State, which is the best team in the conference.

Northern Iowa has actually played its best basketball on the road during this stretch going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS winning by 13 at Northern Iowa as 3.5-point favorites, at Missouri State by 2 as 1.5-point dogs, at Murray State by 10 as 1.5-point dogs and at Belmont by 11 as 2-point favorites.  The Panthers took Drake to OT on the road as identical 8.5-point dogs last season as well.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is actually 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games off two consecutive home games.  The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. good teams that win 60-80% of their games.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Dayton -2.5

Dayton is the best team in the country that nobody is talking about.  The Flyers are 16-2 SU & 14-4 ATS this season including 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play outscoring opponents by 13.0 points per game in Atlantic 10 action.

Now the Flyers prove they are the class of the Atlantic 10 by going on the road and making easy work of a Richmond team that is also 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play, but only winning by 5.8 points per game.  The Spiders have simply been fortunate in close games, but their luck runs out today agains the superior Flyers.

Dayton ranks 14th in adjusted offense and 69th in adjusted defense this season while facing the 87th-ranked schedule in the country.  Richmond ranks 139th in adjusted offense and 47th in adjusted defense against the 216th-ranked schedule.  This will be the Spiders' toughest test since an 11-point loss to Florida on a neutral.

Dayton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following three or more consecutive wins.  Bet Dayton Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Vanderbilt +15.5

Jerry Stackhouse has a way of getting his teams to improve as the season goes on.  The Vanderbilt Commodores are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only lost by 3 to Alabama as 12.5-point dogs and by 2 at Memphis as 15.5-point dogs during this stretch.

Now the Commodores are licking their chops at the opportunity to beat their hated in-state rivals in Tennessee.  They have had the last week off to rest and get ready for this game, and they always take it more seriously than the Volunteers do.  That's evident by the fact that the Commodores are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning outright as 10-point home dogs, losing by 9 as 16.5-point road dogs and losing by 9 as 11.5-point road dogs.

Tennessee has only played four true road games all season going 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS in those games.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three true road games losing by 8 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs, getting upset at Mississippi State by 5 as 2-point favorites and only beating Georgia by 6 as 7.5-point favorites after needing a big 2nd half comeback.  This is a letdown spot for them as well coming off two consecutive big home wins over Florida and Alabama.

Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  The Volunteers are 0-6 ATS in all games away from home vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I love the spot for Kentucky tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season getting upset at South Carolina by 17 as 5.5-point favorites.  They will bounce back in a big way tonight and won't be taking this dreadful Arkansas team lightly as a result.

The Razorbacks are broken.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and getting blown out on the regular.  They lost by 32 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Georgia, by 22 at Florida, by 13 at home to South Carolina and by 26 at Ole Miss.  I think Eric Musselman has lost this team already, and they may not have their best player in Tramon Mark (17.8 PPG), who is questionable after sitting out last game.

Arkansas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Kentucky is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon +4

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed a comeback to beat UCLA at home by 6 as 18-point favorites and only beat a depleted USC team by 15 as 20.5-point favorites.

But most concerning is how poorly Arizona has played on the road in Pac-12 play.  The Wildcats are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Pac-12 road games losing by 18 at Stanford as 12-point favorites, losing by 3 at Washington State as 9-point favorites and losing by 3 at Oregon State as 18.5-point favorites.

Now Arizona will face its toughest road test of the season at Oregon, which is one of the most undervalued teams in the country right now.  The Ducks are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall with both losses coming on the road to Utah (by 3) and Colorado.

The Ducks are a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season with one of the best home-court advantages in the Pac-12.  They are coming off a 19-point home win over Arizona State on Thursday and should still be very fresh for this game against Arizona, which will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days and expended a lot of energy in that 3-point loss at Oregon State Thursday.

Oregon is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after losing two its last three games.  The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in home games vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Oregon upset Arizona 87-68 as identical 4-point home dogs last season.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Valparaiso +3.5

Valparaiso is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and playing its best basketball of the season.  But the Beacons continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage today and back them as 3.5-point home dogs to Missouri State.

This is a terrible spot for Missouri State.  The Bears are coming off an 83-80 (2 OT) upset home win over Drake as 7-point dogs on Wednesday.  Now they are tired, fat and happy and won't want anything to do with this game against Valpo on Saturday.

That win against Drake pretty much came out of nowhere because the Bears had been rotten prior to that.  They had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games including a 26-point loss at Bradley, a 24-point home loss to Murray State, a 22-point loss at Indiana State and a 9-point home loss to Illinois State.

Valpo is 7-0 ATS after three straight games forcing their opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Missouri State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 or more points.  The Beacons are 7-0 ATS vs. teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Bet Valpo Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor -5

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears today.  They are coming off two consecutive road losses to Kansas State and Texas by a combined 6 points.  They lost in OT to K-State and at the buzzer to Texas.  It's safe to say the Bears will be highly motivated for a victory today.

Now Baylor has had the last week off to rest and get better and prepare to beat TCU.  Baylor is a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season and will get back on track in blowout fashion.  They face a Horned Frogs team that will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and is coming off a fortunate 74-69 road win at lowly Oklahoma State.  They had lost their two previous games to Cincinnati on the road and Iowa State at home.

Baylor is 10-3 ATS as a favorite this season.  Scott Drew will have the Bears ready for one of their best performances of the season today.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +8

Wyoming has one of the strongest home-court advantages in the country.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU at home this season including an upset win over Nevada as 7-point dogs in their most recent home game.  That's the same Nevada team that just beat Colorado State 77-64 last time out.

Wyoming should not be catching 8 points at home to a Colorado State team that has been grossly overvalued since it turned conference season.  The Cowboys are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The two wins came in OT at home against Air Force as 15.5-point favorites and by 3 over UNLV at home as 7-point favorites.  They lost all three of their true road games during this stretch.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Colorado State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS off a conference game this season.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

20* Clemson/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

I love the spot for Clemson.  They last played on Saturday in a 78-67 road win at Florida State.  That means they have had an entire week off to rest and prepare to beat Duke.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season.

Duke is not playing well right now.  The Blue Devils are 2-1 SU by 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and consistently getting too much respect.  They only beat Georgia Tech by 5 as 17.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Pitt by 4 as 12-point home favorites and won by 14 at Louisville as 14-point favorites.  Duke played on Tuesday and only had three days to get ready for Clemson.

Duke is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after going over the total in three consecutive games.  Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* WAC PLAY OF THE DAY on UT-Arlington +6.5

This is a big letdown spot for Grand Canyon (18-2).  The Antelopes are coming off a 53-51 win at Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  That followed up an upset loss at Seattle on Saturday.  Now the Antelopes will be playing their 3rd consecutive road game and their 2nd road game in 3 days.

UT-Arlington has a massive rest advantage after last playing at Abilene Christian on Saturday.  That means the Mavericks have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Grand Canyon.  They want revenge from a 69-76 road loss at Grand Canyon on December 2nd in their first meeting this season.  They already proved they could play with the Antelopes on the road, and now they should not be catching 6.5 points at home in the rematch given their rest advantage.

Arlington is 9-1 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Arlington is 8-2 ATS vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in all games this season and have been consistently undervalued.  Bet UT-Arlington Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Oklahoma UNDER 141.5

Oklahoma is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Sooners rank 209th in adjusted tempo and 21st in adjusted defense.  They face another dead nuts UNDER team today in Texas Tech, which ranks 285th in adjusted tempo and 60th in adjusted defense.

The UNDER is 10-0-1 in the last 11 meetings between Texas Tech and Oklahoma with 137 or fewer combined points in all 11 meetings.  That would make for an 11-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 141.5-point total today.  Enough said.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7.5

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But now they are laying 7.5-point on the road to Florida State after being 3-point underdogs at Clemson.  That just shows you how big of an adjustment they have made on UNC, and it's too big.

Florida State wants revenge from a 78-70 road loss at North Carolina as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 2nd.  But that was a bad FSU team at the time, and this is a much improved team under Leonard Hamilton now.  The Seminoles are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins at Notre Dame, Miami and Syracuse all by 9 points or more.  But they aren't getting the kind of respect that UNC is.

The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in ACC play this season.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +6.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for South Carolina.  They are coming off their huge upset win over Kentucky at home, and now they have an even bigger game on deck against Tennessee on Tuesday.  That makes this a sandwich spot with Missouri coming to town today.

Missouri is winless in SEC play and highly motivated for that first conference victory.  The Tigers will be out for revenge from a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina on January 13th in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago today.  The Tigers had a big effort last time out losing by just 6 as 11.5-point underdogs at Texas A&M.  They will give another big effort today, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the outright upset given the terrible spot for the Gamecocks.

South Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game after 15-plus games.  Lamont Paris is 10-24 ATS in Saturday home games as a head coach.  Dennis Gates is 28-11 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog as a head coach.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* Stanford/California FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 149

Stanford is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 86th in adjusted tempo, 66th in adjusted offense and 129th in adjusted defense.  California is also an OVER team ranking in the middle of the pack in adjusted tempo, 84th in adjusted offense and 177th in adjusted defense.

Stanford is 13-5 OVER in all games this season.  The OVER is 6-2 in Stanford's last eight games overall with 149 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  Each of their last five games have seen 152 or more combined points, so this is a pretty low total for a game involving Stanford right now.

The OVER is 13-6 in California's 19 games this season and they are combining for an average of 152.2 points per game this season.  California and its opponents have combined for at least 152 points in four consecutive games coming into this one.

California is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a win by 6 points or less.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cal's six games vs. good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or better this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Michigan State/Wisconsin FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 137.5

Both Michigan State and Wisconsin are dead nuts UNDER teams because they play so slow.  Wisconsin ranks 326th in adjusted tempo while Michigan State ranks 278th in adjusted tempo.

It should come as no surprise that Michigan State and Wisconsin have combined for 134 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings.  They have combined for 137 or fewer in 11 of their last 13 meetings, which makes for an 11-2 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 137.5-point total.

They combined for 127 points in their first meeting this season and both teams actually shot pretty well in that game with both at 45.1% including a combined 19-of-21 from the FT line and 16 made 3-pointers.  We have a lot of room to spare with this 137.5-point total in the rematch.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Long Beach State +3.5

I like the spot for Long Beach State tonight having a full week off last playing on January 18th to get ready for UC-Irvine.  Meanwhile, the Anteaters will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and should not be favored on the road over the Beach tonight.

Long Beach State has only played six home games all season and is 5-1 SU at home.  That includes 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two conference home games beating Hawaii by 8 as 3-point favorites and Riverside by 8 as 7-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Long Beach State won by 5 as a PK and by 6 as 5.5-point dogs in its last two home meetings with Irvine.  Bet Long Beach State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Cleveland State +2.5

Cleveland State is 10-0 SU at home this season.  That includes wins over three of the best teams in the Horizon League in Oakland, Northern Kentucky and IPFW.  The Vikings should not be home underdogs to Wright State tonight.

The Vikings will be out for revenge from an 82-70 road loss at Wright State on January 4th in their first meeting earlier this month.  Wright State shot 60% from the field and 8-of-16 (50% from 3-point range, while Cleveland State shot 38.9% from the field, 9-of-27 (33%) from 3 and 5-of-13 (38.5%) from the FT line.  That's not going to happen again.

Wright State is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference road games this season without outright upset losses at Green Bay by 11 and at Milwaukee by 8, as well as a 10-point loss at Youngstown State.  Cleveland State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five regular season meetings with Wright State.  Bet Cleveland State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Green Bay +3

What more does Green Bay have to do to get some respect?  Green Bay is 7-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  One of those losses came 79-73 at Oakland as 7.5-point road dogs.  Now the Phoenix get their shot at revenge at home this time around with first place in the Horizon on the line.

Oakland is overvalued off six consecutive victories with five of those wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  The Golden Grizzlies have just been fortunate in close games.  Their luck runs out tonight on the highway.  They made 14 more FT's than Green Bay in that first meeting which was the difference in that 6-point win.  I expect the home team to get the benefit of the whistle again here.

Green Bay is 7-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season.  That includes 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home in conference play beating Cleveland State by 8 as 1-point dogs, beating Robert Morris by 17 as 3-point favorites, upsetting Wright State by 11 as 7.5-point dogs and upsetting Milwaukee by 12 as 2-point dogs.

Oakland is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing four consecutive games as a favorite.  Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in conference games this season.  The Phoenix are 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Green Bay is 9-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game this season.  Bet Green Bay Thursday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Kentucky -3.5

Northern Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Norse are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two losses coming on the road at Cleveland State by 3 as 4.5-point dogs and at Oakland by 5 as 6-point dogs.  

The Norse are coming off a pair of blowout home wins over quality Horizon League teams.  They beat Milwaukee 90-72 as 2-point favorites and Green Bay 74-52 as 6-point favorites to improve to 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season.  Now the Norse want revenge from a 73-60 loss at IPFW on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  They shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 and 11-of-21 (54.2%) from the FT line in that loss and can only improve.

IPFW is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall with three upset losses including a very bad 6-point home loss to IUPUI as 16.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Youngstown State, by 3 at Robert Morris and by 7 at Cleveland State in their last three road games.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Northern Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with IPFW winning the last two by 20 and 10 points.  IPFW is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 January games.  NKU is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five games ATS.  Bet Northern Kentucky Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +14

Valparaiso has quietly gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall not once losing by more than 9 points.  That includes a 59-50 upset win at Illinois State as a 10-point dog.  The Beacons only lost by 9 as 9.5-point home dogs to Southern Illinois.

Now Valparaiso is out for revenge on the Salukis and catching 14 points in the rematch on the road.  This number is too high, especially when you consider how poorly SIU is playing of late.  This is a team that lost a lot in the transfer portal and wasn't able to replace that talent.

Southern Illinois is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 18 at home to Drake, by 1 at home to Bradley and by 4 at Northern Iowa.  The Salukis just don't have the same kind of home-court advantage this season that they have in years' past.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo a second time this season.

Valparaiso is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  The Beacons are 6-0 ATS vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Southern Illinois ranks 341st in adjusted tempo, making it hard for them to get margin because there just aren't enough possessions.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Bradley -8

Bradley has won eight consecutive games with seven of those eight wins coming by 11 points or more.  I fully expect them to win this game against Murray State by double-digits tonight.

It's revenge time for the Braves after losing 79-72 as 3.5-point favorites at Murray State back in November.  But the Braves are much healthier and playing a lot better since that defeat.  They beat Murray State 83-48 at home last season.

Murray State lost by 10 at home to Northern Iowa and by 9 at home to Indiana State in two of its last three games coming in.  Stepping up in class has not gone well for them.  The Racers have not been a good road team either, and Steve Prohm is one of the worst head coaches in all of college basketball.

Bradley is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 home games.  The Braves are 8-0 ATS in thier last eight home games off a win by 15 points or more.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on USF/Temple UNDER 146

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting between Temple and USF this month.  The first resulted in a 76-68 home win for USF and 144 combined points.  I fully expect the 2nd meeting to be even more low scoring.

In fact, each of the last seven meetings between Temple and USF have seen 144 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 146-point total.

Temple ranks 279th in adjusted offense and 351st in effective FG% this season.  South Florida ranks 172nd in adjusted offense and 233rd in effective field goal percentage.  Both of these teams are much better defensively than they are on offense.

USF is 9-0 UNDER after playing a game as a favorite this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia -5.5

Virginia is 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 22.1 points per game.  They beat Virginia Tech by 8 and Louisville by 24 in covering each of their first two ACC home games this season.  They will win by 6-plus over NC State to cover this short number as well.

Virginia wants revenge from a 76-60 road loss at NC State on January 6th.  Now they get to host the Wolfpack, who are 0-2 ATS in ACC road games this season only winning by 2 at Notre Dam eas 5-point favorites and by 6 at Louisville as 7.5-point favorites.  This will be their toughest test of the season since a 9-point loss on a neutral to Tennessee.  They also lost by 20 at Ole Miss in another true road game.

Virginia lost by 14 at NC State last year and avenged that defeat with a 63-50 win as a 7.5-point home favorite in the rematch.  It will be more of the same this season.  Bet Virginia Wednesday.