Winning Sports Picks

15* Iowa/Virginia NIT Wednesday No-Brainer on Iowa +4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team left in the NIT in my opinion. The Big Ten has proven to be the toughest conference in the country with four teams through to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa is 23-12 on the season with a .500 record in Big Ten play. This team is even better than its record would indicate because it has suffered so many close losses this year.

That includes losses to Indiana (65-69), Michigan State (59-62), Purdue (65-62), Minnesota (59-62), Wisconsin (79-74), Nebraska (70-74) and Michigan State (56-59). As you can see, the Hawkeyes have SEVEN Big Ten losses by FOUR POINTS OR LESS.

Iowa is 12-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Iowa is 6-0 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season. These five trends combine for a 39-1 system backing the Hawkeyes. Roll with Iowa Wednesday.

15* College Basketball GAME OF THE NIGHT on Bradley +11

The Bradley Braves get the call tonight as a double-digit road underdog to the Northern Iowa Panthers. These are two familiar foes as they both come from the Missouri Valley Conference, and there's no way the Panthers should be favored this heavily because of it.

I have no doubt that Northern Iowa is overvalued here due to its two victories over Bradley in the regular season. UNI won the first meeting 84-53 at home on January 12th, and the second meeting 68-65 on the road on February 10th. The Braves will have serious revenge in mind, while the Panthers will have a hard time getting motivated to beat the same team three times.

This play falls into a system that is 116-58 (66.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (BRADLEY) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.

Northern Iowa is 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Bradley is 23-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 21-39 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997. Take Bradley Thursday.

15* LA Tech/Southern Miss NIT BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech +7.5

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They put together a 27-6 season and I have no doubt that this team is better than several squads in the NCAA Tournament.

They are out to prove it in the NIT, and they are off to a damn good start in doing so. They won at Florida State 71-66 as a 3-point underdog in their opener to pick up a big road win. I fully expect them to win outright tonight as well, but I'm taking the points for some insurance.

Southern Miss doesn't even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament after a double-OT loss to Memphis in the Conference USA Championship Game. That was evident when the Golden Eagles only beat Charleston Southern 78-71 at home as an 11.5-point favorite in their NIT opener.

These teams actually met once already this season way back on December 8th. Louisiana Tech beat Southern Miss 65-55 at home as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs limited the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting while forcing 25 turnovers in the victory.

The Bulldogs are 30-14-2 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Southern Miss is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. LA Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season. Take Louisiana Tech Monday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on BYU -7

The BYU Cougars should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Mercer Bears. The Cougars are 16-3 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.3 points/game.

Mercer comes in getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for its 75-67 victory at Tennessee in its first NIT game. It caught the Volunteers in a huge letdown spot as they did not even want to be playing in the NIT after narrowly missing the NCAA Tournament field.

BYU is more than happy to be playing in the NIT, and it wants to get to Madison Square Garden. The Cougars proved that with a 90-79 home victory over a very good Washington team as a 6-point favorite in the opening round.

This play falls into a system that is 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BYU) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).

BYU is 110-69 ATS as a home favorite or pick since 1997. The Cougars are 39-18 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997. Bet BYU Monday.

20* Sunday Round of 32 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 28-6 SU and an incredible 21-7 ATS in all games this year.

Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should have been a 20-plus point favorite against Pacific in the Round of 64 as they cruised to a 78-49 victory as a 12-point favorite.

Now, they should be laying double-digits against an overrated Illinois team that is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. The Illini are one of the most inconsistent teams left in the NCAA Tournament. They rely way too heavily on the 3-point shot.

Illinois attempts 24 3-pointers per game, making just 32.3% of them. That's why they are so inconsistent. They'll be up against a solid defense in Miami that allows just 60.3 points/game and 39.7% shooting, including 32.7% from the 3-point stripe.

Miami is 14-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Illinois is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win. The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These four tends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Sunday.

20* Wichita State/Gonzaga Saturday Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6

The No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite over the No. 9 seed Wichita State Shockers. The reason they're not is because this line is simply an overreaction from what happened in the first round.

Gonzaga struggled to beat Southern, eventually winning 64-58 despite being a 22.5-point favorite. Wichita State crushed Pittsburgh 73-55 despite being a 4.5-point underdog. Clearly, oddsmakers anticipated the betting public would be high on Wichita State and low on Gonzaga because of their performances in the round of 64.

That has created some excellent line value for us, and I'm going to take full advantage. Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, but it simply had an 'off' day. I look for the Bulldogs to rebound with a strong performance Saturday in front of what will be a home crowd for them in Salt Lake City, UT.

Gonzaga is now 32-2 on the season. Of those 32 wins, 24 have come by 7 points or more. Wichita State is getting too much respect here for its win over an overrated Pittsburgh team. Remember, this is the same Shockers team that has losses to Evansville (twice), Indiana State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois and Creighton (twice) this season.

The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Gonzaga is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games. Wichita State is 4-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take Gonzaga Saturday.

15* Saturday Round of 32 Line Mistake on Harvard +10

Harvard remains undervalued even after its 68-62 victory over New Mexico as a 10.5-point underdog in the Round of 64. The Crimson should not be catching double-digits against Arizona, which is overvalued due to its blowout 81-64 victory against an overrated Belmont team Thursday.

The Crimson have had a lot of luck out West this year, playing some very good team tough. It won at California 67-62 as an 11-point underdog, and lost at St. Mary's in the closing seconds 69-70 as a 12-point underdog. Both of those teams are playing in the NCAA Tournament.

Those weren't the Crimson's only impressive showings on the road, either. They lost at UMass 64-67 as an 11-point underdog, won at Boston College 79-63 as a 4-point dog, lost at UConn 49-57 as a 9-point dog, and lost at Memphis 50-60 as a 13.5-point dog. As you can see, Harvard is certainly battle-tested and proven heading into this one.

Harvard is 7-0 ATS in road games after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Crimson are 6-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Harvard is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. The Crimson are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Harvard is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These five trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Crimson. Roll with Harvard Saturday.

20* VCU/Michigan Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines should be a much bigger favorite in the Round of 32 against VCU. This line is simply an overreaction from VCU's blowout victory over Akron in the opening round.

I took Michigan in the Round of 64 in a blowout victory over South Dakota State. This team is still undervalued because it entered the NCAA Tournament undervalued due to a tough finish that included a loss to Penn State, a heartbreaking 71-72 loss to Indiana to cost itself a Big Ten title, and a loss to Wisconsin in the conference tournament.

Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois. Michigan will have home-court advantage in this game as well as this contest will be played in Auburn Hills, MI.

VCU loves to press which can get teams WITHOUT GOOD GUARDS out of their rhythm offensively. Well, Michigan has some of the best guards in the country in Trey Burke and company, and it will eat VCU's press alive. This is simply a terrible match-up for the Rams because of it.

The Rams are 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season. This trend just goes to show how VCU struggles against teams like the Wolverines who can take care of the ball. Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* Minnesota/UCLA Friday Night BAILOUT on UCLA +3

The No. 6 UCLA Bruins should not be an underdog to the No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is another case where the Big Ten is being overvalued simply because almost everyone is proclaiming it as the best conference in the country.

Minnesota went just 8-11 in all Big Ten games this season and still made the NCAA Tournament. They also lost badly to Duke 89-71 on a neutral court in non-conference action. This team was so inconsistent all year with losses to the likes of Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Purdue within the conference.

A big reason UCLA is undervalued here is the fact that they'll be without second-leading scorer Jordan Adams (foot) for the rest of the season. However, this team has plenty of talent to make up for his absence, and they have been preparing to play without him, so it won't be a shock to them.

The Bruins went 25-9 this season, including 13-5 in the improved Pac-12 to capture the regular season title. This is a team that beat Missouri out of conference, and fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Cal, Colorado, and Arizona (three times) within the Pac-12.

Minnesota is 1-14 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Gophers are 0-6 ATS in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Bruins. Bet UCLA Friday.

15* Oklahoma/SDSU Friday Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma +3

The Mountain West Conference is extremely overrated this season. That is certainly reflected in this line as San Diego State is favored over Oklahoma when it really shouldn't be despite being the lower seed.

San Diego State went just 9-7 in the MWC during the regular season before falling to New Mexico 60-50 in the conference tournament. It lost to Syracuse and Arizona on a neutral court in non-conference play in by far its two toughest games outside the MWC.

I just love this veteran Oklahoma team that returned five starters under second-year head coach Lon Kruger, who is a proven winner. The Sooners played in a much tougher conference in the Big 12 while going 11-7 in league play. They beat the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State this year.

Oklahoma has been underrated all season, going a super 17-10 ATS in all games this year. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. Mountain West opponents. The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. SDSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

20* Friday Round of 64 Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -5

This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. First and foremost, this game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO so the Kansas State Wildcats (27-7) will have a huge home-court advantage over La Salle.

The reason this line is so small is because the betting public saw La Salle beat Boise State 80-71 in the "first four" by shooting lights out from the field. Folks, that's not going to happen again against a much better defensive team in Kansas State.

In fact, La Salle went 31-of-49 from the field including 11-of-21 from 3-point range against Boise State. That 63% shooting percentage was the Explorers' best mark in any game this season. And they STILL couldn't put Boise State away completely.

Kansas State only gives up 60.4 points/game on 41.8% shooting on the season. That's impressive when you consider their opponents combined to average 69.0 points/game and 43.8% shooting in all games this year. That's getting it done defensively folks.

The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Explorers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big 12 opponents. La Salle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wildcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 foes. Take Kansas State Friday.

15* Friday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Cincinnati +3.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats should not be an underdog to the Creighton Blue Jays in this Round of 64 match-up Friday. While the Bearcats are the higher seed at No. 10, they are the better team in this one.

The Missouri Valley Conference was way down this year, which is why I really believe that Creighton is overrated. The Blue Jays had losses to Drake, Indiana State, Illinois State Wichita State and Northern Iowa within the conference. They also lost to St Mary's and Boise State in two of their toughest non-conference games.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati played in the much tougher Big East Conference, which has it more battle-tested heading into this one. It also beat the likes of IOwa State, Oregon, Alabama and Xavier out of conference. Cincinnati will have the home-court edge as well as it is much closer to Philadelphia, PA than Creighton.

The Bearcats are 12-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bluejays are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Take Cincinnati Friday.

20* Friday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Miami -12

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 27-6 and an incredible 20-7 ATS in all games this year.

Even after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, the Hurricanes still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They should be a 20-plus point favorite over Pacific in the Round of 64.

One look at Pacific's performance in non-conference play, and it's easy to see that this team will not be able to compete with Miami. The Tigers have losses to Fresno State, Oral Robers, California (58-78), Gonzaga (67-85), Santa Clara and St. Mary's (46-74).

The Tigers are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games. The Hurricanes are 42-17-1 ATS in their last 60 non-conference games. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. The Hurricanes are 13-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. These last two trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Hurricanes. Bet Miami Friday.

15* Thursday Round of 64 Line Mistake on Arizona -4

The Arizona Wildcats should be a much bigger favorite over Belmont Thursday in the Round of 64. The public believes that Belmont has an excellent shot of pulling off the upset, which has kept this line smaller than it should be. I'm not buying it.

Arizona is certainly the better team in this one, and that will show on the court Thursday. The Wildcats went 25-7 this season against a much tougher schedule than 26-6 Belmont faced. They got off to a 14-0 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Florida, Miami, San Diego State and Colorado. This team is the real deal, yet they aren't getting treated like it.

Belmont is a popular upset pick, but the fact of the matter is that this team doesn't have the talent to compete with a loaded roster like the one that Arizona brings to the table. That was evident in non-conference losses to Northeastern (74-71), VCU (65-75), Kansas (89-60) and UCF (66-63).

Another huge advantage is the fact that this game will be played out West in Salt Lake City, UT. There's no question that the Wildcats will have a big home-court edge in this one folks, though they don't need it to destroy the Bruins.

The Bruins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. Belmont is 3-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games.

The Bruins are 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games since 1997. Belmont is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wildcats. Roll with Arizona Thursday.

15* SDSU/Michigan Thursday No-Brainer on Michigan -11

The Michigan Wolverines are way undervalued heading into the NCAA Tournament due to a poor finish to the season. They had a chance to share the Big 12 regular season title, but lost to Indiana in a last-second heartbreaker 72-71.

Michigan would go on to beat Penn State before falling to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. That has given it some extra time to get back to the practice court and get back to the basics. Remember, this was the No. 1 team in the country at one point after a 20-1 start that included wins over fellow NCAA Tournament contenders Pittsburgh, Kansas State, NC State, Minnesota and Illinois.

South Dakota State (25-9) will be no match for Michigan in this one. That's evident with the fact that two of their losses came to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Minnesota (88-64) and Belmont (76-49) in blowout fashion.

Not only is Michigan undervalued due to a poor finish, but it will also have a huge home-court advantage in this one to try and get back on track. This game will be played in Auburn Hills, MI, so you can certainly say that the Wolverines have gotten the luck of the draw here. They will have a big following Thursday night, and I look for these players to feed off of that.

The Wolverines are 22-4-1 (85%) ATS in their last 27 Thursday games. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 neutral site games. The Wolverines are 19-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take Michigan Thursday.

15* Thursday Round of 64 Major Mismatch on Gonzaga -21.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will roll to a 22-plus point victory Thursday over the Southern University Jaguars. The Bulldogs will have home-court advantage in the West Region as this game will be played in Salt Lake City, UT which is only several reasons I like them to cover this big number.

The biggest reason I'm backing the Bulldogs is the fact that Southern University played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and it still managed to lose nine games this year. It only played one NCAA Tournament team in Iowa State, losing 59-82 on the road. It also had double-digit losses to lowly Nebraska and TCU, which are bottom feeders in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively.

As you can see, Gonzaga is by far the best team that Southern has faced this season. What's most impressive about Gonzaga's 31-2 record heading into the NCAA Tournament is the fact that 13 of those 31 wins came by 22 or more points. That includes victories over West Virginia (84-50) and Oklahoma (72-47). Plus, Southern is one of the weakest opponents that the Bulldogs have faced all year.

The Bulldogs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Gonzaga is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulldogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Gonzaga Thursday.

20* Thursday Round of 64 No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -3

Davidson has been one of the most popular upset picks in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. As a result, Marquette is only a 3-point favorite over the Wildcats. I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Golden Eagles in the Round of 64 Thursday because of it.

Davidson comes in way overvalued due to its 17-game winning streak heading into the NCAA Tournament. This team really hasn't beaten anyone of any significance during this streak. A look at its non-conference resume tells a different story.

The Wildcats have losses to New Mexico, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Gonzaga, Charlotte, Drexel and Duke. They really don't have a quality non-conference win unless you want to count Vanderbilt, West Virginia and Richmond. I'm not counting them.

Marquette has been underrated all season. It tied shared the Big East regular season title with Louisville and Georgetown with a 14-4 mark. This team also has a solid non-conference win over Wisconsin (60-50). Getting the Golden Eagles as only a 3-point favorite is an absolute gift.

The Golden Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 11.6 points/game. The Wildcats are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games. Davidson is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Marquette Thursday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +1.5

The Memphis Tigers represent my strongest play in the Round of 64 for the 2013 NCAA Tournament. They should not be an underdog to the Saint Mary's Gaels in this one folks.

Memphis gets no respect despite its 30-4 record this season. That's because many believe that the Tigers didn't pick up any significant non-conference wins, but I beg to differ. They won at Tennessee 85-80 as a 2.5-point underdog. Sure, they lost to Minnesota, VCU and Louisville, but those aren't really bad losses.

The Tigers are the most athletic team in the entire NCAA Tournament. I believe that athleticism will prove to be too much for Saint Mary's to handle. The Tigers come into this game having won 24 of their last 25 games overall. I don't care who they have beaten during this stretch, that's impressive to say the least.

Saint Mary's is lacking quality wins as well. It has losses to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa this season. Its biggest wins have come against BYU and Creighton, which is far from impressive.

This team is simply getting too much respect for its 67-54 win over an overrated Middle Tennessee State team in the first round on Tuesday. I actually had the Gaels picked in that contest, but I'll gladly fade them as they take a huge step up in competition here.

Memphis has a big edge in rest and preparation as it was clearly getting ready for Saint Mary's or Middle Tennessee on Monday and Tuesday, while the Gaels had to get ready for the Blue Raiders. Saint Mary's is 1-7 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Memphis Thursday.

20* La Salle/Boise State TruTV No-Brainer on Boise State -1.5

I fully expect Boise State to blow La Salle out of the building tonight. The talent level between these two teams is far and away in the Broncos' favor. I look for that to show on the court in this one.

Boise State is 21-10 on the season and well deserving of an NCAA Tournament bid. It played a tough non-conference schedule that featured a 70-74 loss at Michigan State as a 15.5-point underdog, and an 83-70 win at Creighton as a 13-point dog. It also played in the tough Mountain West which features three other NCAA Tournament teams in New Mexico, SDSU and UNLV.

While La Salle has a better record at 21-9, it's a bit inflated due to a weaker non-conference schedule. The Explorers are not playing well heading into the big dance, getting blown out 54-78 at Saint Louis, and 58-69 on a neutral court against Butler in their last two games.

One big factor in deciding the outcome of this game is kind of going unnoticed. That's the injury to La Salle center Steve Zack, who is out with a foot injury. Zack leads the team in blocks (36) and is second in rebounding (6.4 RPG). This is a small Explorers team as it is, and without Zack, they are going to get killed on the boards and in paint scoring.

The Explorers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Boise State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Boise State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. Bet Boise State Wednesday.

15* MTSU/Saint Mary's TruTV No-Brainer on Saint Mary's -3

The Saint Mary's Gaels certainly deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, on the other hand, do not. That's evident when you look at the strength of schedule that these teams have faced.

St. Mary's is 27-6 on the season with three of its losses coming against current No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga. Its other three losses all came away from home to Pacific, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa, which are three quality teams. The Gaels have beaten NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Harvard, and they have two wins over a very good BYU team as well.

While Middle Tennessee State is 28-5 on the season, a closer look shows that it really hasn't beaten anyone special. Its five losses have come to Florida (45-66), Akron (77-82), Belmont (49-64), Arkansas State (60-66) and Florida International (57-61). What the committee apparently considering its significant wins were vs. Ole Miss (65-62), at UCF (75-61) and vs. Vanderbilt (56-52). I really don't see a quality win there anywhere.

The Gaels are a perfect 19-0 SU in their last 19 games against teams other than Gonzaga dating back to December 27th. They are more battle-tested heading into the big dance, and as a result they will be more prepared to beat a team like Middle Tennessee State tonight. I believe that St. Mary's is the second-best team that the Blue Raiders have faced all season, and they won't be ready for it.

MTSU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Blue Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Gaels. Take St. Mary's Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Northeastern +12

Northeastern is showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to Alabama Tuesday night in the opening round of the NIT. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Huskies in a game that I believe they can win outright.

Alabama comes into the NIT in a poor state of mind. After beating Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, it thought it had a legitimate shot to be playing in the NCAA Tournament. It lost to Florida in the next round and was left out by the committee. The Crimson Tide likely don't even want to be here.

Northeastern (20-12), on the other hand, is ecstatic to be playing in the NIT after losing in its conference tournament to James Madison. The Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Of their 12 losses, only two came by more than 11 points. Those were a 63-83 loss at UAB, and a 57-70 loss to James Madison on a neutral court.

What I love most about Northeastern is the fact that it has played its best basketball on the road this season. In fact, it is just 7-8 at home this year, and an incredible 13-4 on the road. The Huskies will not be intimidated by Alabama's home crowd one bit tonight.

This play falls into a system that is 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (NORTHEASTERN) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher.

Alabama is 0-6 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Northeastern is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick this season. The Huskies are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Northeastern Tuesday.

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -1.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes made it all the way to the Big Ten Championship in 2012 before falling to Michigan State 64-68. They aren't going to let themselves come up short again in 2013. I look for them to roll to victory over the Wisconsin Badgers, who are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.

Ohio State has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. It is a perfect 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall, making backers a killing. Somehow, the Buckeyes remain undervalued in the Big Ten title game as they'll deliver the goods once again.

Wisconsin is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers for its wins over Michigan and Indiana to get here. Sure, those are two very good teams, but Wisconsin matches up very well with them. Both Indiana and Michigan are offensive-minded, soft teams. Ohio State, on the other hand, is a gritty, defensive team similar to the Badgers. I just believe that Ohio State does it better, especially of late.

This play falls into a system that is 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Ohio State is 11-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet Ohio State Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Florida SEC Championship No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels should not be catching double-digits in the SEC Championship against the Florida Gators. This team came in knowing it needed to at least make it to the SEC Championship to go on to play in the NCAA Tournament, and it has played its best basketball of the season under these tough circumstances.

I look for Ole Miss to try and take the decision out of the NCAA Tournament committee's hands by trying to upset the Gators this afternoon. It has won four straight coming in, including victories over Alabama and Missouri. It will want revenge from a 64-78 loss at Florida on February 2nd as a 17.5-point underdog. On a neutral court this time around, I look for the Rebels to stay within single-digits and possibly pulling off the upset.

Florida continues to be overvalued due to its torrid start to the season. It was literally killing teams through the first few months, but that hasn't been the case over the past month and a half. In fact, the Gators are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Once again, they remain overvalued as a double-digit favorite in the SEC Championship.

Ole Miss is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The Rebels are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings dating back to 2008. Take Ole Miss Sunday.

15* Syracuse/Louisville Big East Championship Side on Syracuse +5

This will be the final season for the Syracuse Orange in the Big East. They are making the most of it by giving it one hell of a final run. I look for Jim Boeheim's squad to complete the run by knocking off Louisville in the Big East Championship Game, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

I've been saying since the start of the Big East Tournament that Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in any conference tournament in the country. That has proven to be the case as it has knocked off Seton Hall, Pittsburgh and Big East regular season champ Georgetown along the way.

The road team won both regular season meetings with Syracuse winning 70-68 at Louisville on January 19th, while the Cardinals won 58-53 at the Carrier Dome on March 2nd. As you can see, those two games were decided by a combined 7 points, and I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well. In fact, four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 5 points or less.

This play falls into a system that is 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on an underdog (SYRACUSE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after 2 straight close wins by 3 points or less. Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* K-State/Kansas Big 12 Championship Side on Kansas State +5

The Kansas State Wildcats will be highly motivated for revenge Saturday as they square off against the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 Championship Game. They have lost the first two regular season meetings to the Jayhawks, but I look for them to get payback with an upset victory in the title game. I'll just take the points for some insurance.

Kansas State is one of the best teams in the country that gets hardly any recognition. It is 27-6 on the season, and it is red hot right now. Kansas State has won eight of its last nine games overall, including double-digit victories over Texas (66-49) and Oklahoma State (68-57) in the first two games of the Big 12 Tournament.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the land. Time and time again it has escaped with close victories this season. The fact of the matter is that this Kansas team isn't nearly as dominant as some of the Kansas teams of year's past. That was evident when the Jayhawks lost three straight games during the regular season, including a 55-62 setback at TCU.

The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 Saturday games. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -1

The Ohio State Buckeyes entered the Big Ten Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. That has continued with a 71-50 victory over Nebraska in their opener. Ohio State has now going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games overall. No team in the country is playing better right now.

What's most impressive about this run by the Buckeyes is the fact that four of those six victories came against NCAA Tournament contenders. They beat Minnesota (71-45), Michigan State (68-60) and Illinois (68-55) at home. Their most impressive win during this stretch was a 67-58 road victory at Big Ten champ Indiana on March 5th.

Michigan State has just been so-so down the stretch, losing three of its last six games overall. Two of those three wins came against non-NCAA Tournament teams. They played in the late game last night, needing to erase a 30-20 halftime deficit to come back and beat Iowa 59-56. That comeback effort took a lot out of them, and now they'll have to play roughly 17 hours after that game went final.

Ohio State was the better team in the regular season meetings. It lost 56-59 at Michigan State in the first meeting, but came back with a 68-60 home victory in the second. This is personal for the Buckeyes, who lost 68-64 to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship last year. I look for it to get revenge in blowout fashion Saturday.

The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spartans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season. The Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less 3 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Buckeyes. Bet Ohio State Saturday.

15* Oky State/K-State Big 12 BAILOUT on Kansas State PK

The Kansas State Wildcats should be a heavy favorite over the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight. Instead, we're getting them at a pick 'em and I'll take full advantage. The co-Big 12 champs will make easy work of the Cowboys in this one folks.

Oklahoma State has been one of the most lucky teams in the country this season, pulling out more close wins than any other team that comes to mind. That was the case last night in a 74-72 victory over Baylor in their Big 12 Tournament opener. Their luck runs out tonight against a superior Wildcats team that is 26-6 on the season.

What I love most about Kansas State is the fact that it will be out for revenge from a 70-76 loss at Oklahoma State in its regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. The Wildcats will basically have home-court advantage with this game being played in Kansas City, Missouri. It all spells payback tonight folks.

The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Bet Kansas State Friday.

15* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6

The Iowa State Cyclones will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game they have played all season. This is personal with the Kansas Jayhawks, as Iowa State was simply robbed of two victories over them during the regular season.

Both regular season meetings went to overtime. Iowa State lost the first at Kansas after a banked 3-pointer went in for the Jayhawks at the end of regulation to force overtime, a complete fluke. Then, the Cyclones blew a late double-digits lead at home and eventually lost in overtime. The Big 12 came out after the game and admitted the refs blew some calls late that cost Iowa State the victory.

I fully expect Iowa State to win outright tonight, but I'm just going to take the points for some added insurance. Kansas is clearly vulnerable after needing overtime to beat the Cyclones twice this year, and after losing 58-81 at Baylor in its regular season finale with the Big 12 title on the line. This isn't the same dominant Jayhawks team from year's past.

Iowa State has won and covered three straight games over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and West Virginia heading into this one. This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (IOWA ST) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite.

The Cyclones are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 19-6 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 15-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State Friday.

20* Syracuse/Georgetown ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +2

The Syracuse Orange are the best No. 5 seed of any conference tournament in the country. They have gotten by Seton Hall and Pittsburgh, and now they'll upset the No. 1 seed Georgetown Hoyas Friday night. This game is personal for the Orange.

Georgetown has won the first two meetings with Syracuse this season, both by double-digits. That includes a 61-39 home victory in their regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. There's no question that the Orange are going to be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season as they look for revenge.

At the same time, I fully expect the Hoyas to relax having already beating Syracuse twice by double-digits. They will think they just have to show up to win, and they won't be coming out with the same intensity as the Orange because of it.

This play falls into a system that is 91-47 (65.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SYRACUSE) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.

Syracuse is 20-6 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. The Orange are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Syracuse Friday.

15* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2

The Tennessee Volunteers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. My latest check has them as the final team in the "first four in" category in Joe Lunardi's bracket. That means a loss today to Alabama and they'll likely move down to the "first four out" list. They aren't going to chance that today folks.

Tennessee has been playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch just to get itself in the discussion of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes four road wins, and home victories over Kentucky (88-58), Florida (64-58) and Missouri (64-62). This is a dangerous team that nobody wants to face right now.

Alabama has been up and down all season. It closed the year with losses in three of its last five games to put itself clearly out of the NCAA Tournament discussion barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Its only wins during that stretch came at home against Auburn and Georgia, and it even needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Bulldogs in its season finale.

The Vols are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -2

The Arkansas Razorbacks represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 SEC Tournament. There won't be a better wagering opportunity than this one folks. I look for the Razorbacks to roll over the Vanderbilt Commodores in the opening round of the conference tourney Thursday.

Arkansas needs this win to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble, and only a deep run in the SEC Tournament will get them in. Vanderbilt is just 14-16 on the season and it has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight.

The home team won in blowout fashion in both meetings with Arkansas winning 56-33 at home on January 12th, and Vanderbilt winning 67-49 at home on February 9th. However, the Razorbacks were in a huge letdown spot heading into their second meeting after beating then-No. 1 Florida 80-69 in their previous game. It was only human nature for them to have such a letdown following such a big win.

Vanderbilt is clearly overvalued due to winning four of its final five games to close out the season. However, all four of those victories came against SEC bottom feeders in Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia. Kevin Stallings is 30-51 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Vanderbilt.

Mike Anderson is 11-2 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game as the coach of Arkansas. The Razorbacks are winning 69.5 to 61.6 in this spot, or by an average of 7.9 points/game. Bet Arkansas Thursday.

20* Big Ten Opening Round ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -5.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the Big Ten Tournament. As a result, they are the biggest sleeper in this tourney and I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see them win a few games in it. It starts Thursday with a blowout victory over Nebraska.

The Boilermakers won two of their final three games while going a perfect 3-0 ATS in the process. What's most impressive about that is the fact that all three of those teams are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. They won 69-56 at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog, vs. Minnesota 89-73 as a 3-point dog, and lost vs. Michigan 75-80 as a 6.5-point dog.

After playing such tough competition to close out the regular season, the Boilermakers are clearly battle-tested. It will be like playing a high school team when they get to face lowly Nebraska in the opening round. The Huskers are just 14-17 overall, including 5-13 in Big Ten play.

Purdue won 65-56 at Nebraska on January 16th in their lone meeting of the regular season as a 2-point favorite. In fact, the Boilermakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS vs. Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big 12 last year. All three victories have come by 9, 18 and 18 points.

The Boilermakers are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Purdue is 6-0 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These last three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Boilermakers today. Take Purdue Thursday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -3.5

The Butler Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament over the Dayton Flyers. Butler won at Dayton 79-73 in their lone regular season meeting on January 12th. The Flyers (17-13) have no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers in the rematch.

Butler (24-7) isn't a complete lock to get into the NCAA Tournament, and it doesn't want to lose this game to give the committee any reason to keep it out of the Big Dance. This team doesn't take games off under the head coaching of Brad Stevens, either.

Stevens is 24-9 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Butler. The Bulldogs are 15-2 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.

Butler is 7-0 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning in this spot by an average of 10.2 points/game. Roll with Butler Thursday.

15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +2.5

The Syracuse Orange should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round of the Big East Tournament today. In my opinion, Syracuse is the best No. 5 seed in the country in all of these conference tournaments. This team is undervalued due to its poor finish to the season.

Sure, Syracuse lost four of its final five games to close out the regular season. However, those four losses came to Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette, which are the three teams in the Big East that finished with the best records.

Pittsburgh won each of its final four games to close out the regular season. A closer look shows that those four victories were unimpressive as all four came against mediocre Big East teams in St. Johns, South Florida, Villanova and DePaul. However, the Panthers are getting respect because of this finish, but as you can see it's unwarranted.

The Orange are going to be out for revenge from a 55-65 loss at Pittsburgh on February 2nd in their lone regular season meeting. Jim Boeheim is 21-9 ATS a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of Syracuse. He gets his teams to play at their highest level at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament.

Pittsburgh is 0-9 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. This trend just goes to show how the Panthers have been overvalued after a few dominant performances in a row, which is the case here. The Orange are the better team and that will show on the court today. Take Syracuse Thursday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -1

This is a classic regular season finale rematch spot that I'm going to take advantage of. Boston College beat Georgia Tech 74-72 on March 9th in the regular season finale for both teams. Now, playing each other less than a week later, I'm backing the Yellow Jackets to get revenge on a neutral court this time around.

This play falls into a system that is 79-43 (64.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (GEORGIA TECH) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season.

Georgia Tech played very well down the stretch, going 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall. That includes a 71-69 road victory on March 6th over ACC regular season champ Miami as a 13-point underdog, and a 78-68 home victory over possible NCAA Tournament contender Maryland on February 27th.

The Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -4.5

The Colorado Buffaloes get the nod Wednesday in the opening round of the Pac-12 Tournament as they take on the Oregon State Beavers. Colorado is a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament so it will not be lacking any motivation tonight with its tournament life on the the line.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Buffaloes is the fact that they lost 58-64 at home to Oregon State in their season finale. Now, playing just four days later, I look for the Buffaloes to get revenge in blowout fashion. This is an Oregon State team that is just 14-17 on the season and had lost five straight before that win over Colorado.

Oregon State is 1-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Colorado is 9-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less this season. It is coming back to win by an average of 12.7 points/game in this spot. Bet the Buffaloes Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE DAY on Syracuse -12.5

The Syracuse Orange come into this Big East Tournament highly motivated for a victory after the way they closed out their season. It will take out its frustration on Seton Hall, which it beat by 11 points on the road on February 16th by a final of 76-65 in their lone meeting during the regular season.

Syracuse has lost four of its last five games to drop to 23-8 on the season. All four of those losses came against the top three teams in the Big East in Georgetown (twice), Louisville and Marquette. After such a tough stretch to close out the year, there's no question the Orange are going to be battle-tested. It will seem like they're playing a high school team in the Pirates today.

The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Seton Hall is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 neutral site games. The Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Syracuse is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take Syracuse Wednesday.

15* DePaul/Rutgers Big East BAILOUT on Rutgers -3

This one is as easy as it gets folks. The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the worst teams in the entire country and they have zero confidence heading into the Big East Tournament. That's because they come in having lost 15 of their last 16 games overall.

Sure, that one win was against Rutgers at home by a final of 75-69 in their first and only meeting of the regular season. However, that places the Scarlet Knights in revenge mode here.

While Rutgers has lost five of its last seven games overall, four of those losses came by single-digits to the likes of DePaul, Villanova, Providence and Marquette. The other was a 13-point loss at Big East champ Georgetown. This team is clearly playing better than DePaul heading into the Big East Tournament.

The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Rutgers is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season. DePaul is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Scarlet Knights. Bet Rutgers Tuesday.

20* USF/Seton Hall Big East ANNIHILATOR on South Florida PK

Remember, the South Florida Bulls made the NCAA Tournament last year due to a hot finish to the season. They returned several players from that team this year. While an NCAA Tournament appearance is highly unlikely in 2013, this team comes into the Big East Tournament playing its best basketball of the season.

South Florida has won two of its last three games with its only loss coming at Cincinnati in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog. It beat DePaul 83-73 at home before destroying a very good Connecticut team 65-51 at home as well. This team is certainly feeling good about itself heading into this showdown with the Pirates.

Seton Hall has lost 11 of its last 12 games overall with its only victory coming by a single point at home over Villanova. While the Bulls are hot entering the Big East Tournament, the Pirates are certainly ice cold and lacking confidence. I believe you will see that play out on the court tonight as the Bulls roll and get revenge from their 47-55 loss at Seton Hall in their lone meeting of the season on January 23rd.

South Florida is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. It is beating these teams 70.8 to 59.3, or by an average of 11.5 points/game. Seton Hall is 0-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. It is losing in this spot 58.3 to 68.2, or by an average of 9.9 points/game. The Bulls are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with South Florida Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -8

According to Joe Lunardi's bracketology, the Virginia Cavaliers are the first team listed in the "First Four Out" category. That means this is an extremely important game for them, and as a result I look for them to roll at home today over the Maryland Terrapins.

While Virginia has a ton to play for, Maryland comes in deflated after giving away its chances of making the NCAA Tournament over the past couple weeks. The Terrapins have lost four of their last seven with ugly road losses to Georgia Tech (68-78) and Boston College (58-69), as well as double-digit home losses to UNC (68-79) and Virginia (80-69).

After already beating the Terrapins by 11 on the road, I have no doubt the Cavaliers can win the rematch by 9-plus at home this time around. That's because Virginia is 17-0 SU & 13-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.6 points/game. Maryland is just 3-6 in true road games this year.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Virginia is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Roll with Virginia Sunday.

15* Indiana/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan Money Line -125

The Michigan Wolverines can clinch a share of the Big Ten title with a win over the Indiana Hoosiers at home Sunday. I look for them to continue their dominance at home this season and to get revenge on the Hoosiers from a 73-81 road loss in their first meeting this season.

Michigan is a perfect 17-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 20.1 points/game at home this year. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won seven straight meetings dating back to 2009.

The Wolverines are 22-7 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997. The Hoosiers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take Michigan on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Duke/UNC ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on North Carolina -1.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels want revenge from a 68-73 loss at Duke as a 10.5-point underdog in their first meeting of the season on February 9th. I look for them to have their payback at home this time around as these Tobacco Road rivals square off Saturday night on ESPN at 9:00 EST.

North Carolina has been playing its best basketball of the season since that loss to Duke. It has gone a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six games since with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. The Tar Heels won road games at Georgia Tech (70-58), Clemson (68-59), and Maryland (79-68), while also beating Virginia (93-81), NC State (76-65) and Florida State (77-58) at home during this stretch.

The Tar Heels are a sensational 14-1 SU & 10-3 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 15.0 points/game at home this year. Their only home loss came to current ACC leader Miami, which obviously looking back really isn't that bad of a defeat.

Duke is only 4-4 on the road this season. It has road losses to NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90), Maryland (81-83) and Virginia (68-73). This is only a mediocre Blue Devils team when they get away from Cameron Indoor.

Duke is 0-6 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival this season. UNC is 8-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. UNC is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Tar Heels. Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

15* Kansas/Baylor ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Kansas -3

At 14-3 in the Big 12 this season, the Kansas Jayhawks are tied with the Kansas State Wildcats atop the conference standings. They can clinch at least a share of their 9th straight Big 12 title with a win over the Baylor Bears Saturday. These Jayhawk players DO NOT want to break tradition, so they'll be laying it all on the line not only for themselves, but every former Jayhawk that helped keep this streak going.

Kansas has won seven straight while going 7-0 ATS in the process to put itself in this position. While the Jayhawks have been rolling and come in with a ton of confidence, the Bears have lost five of their last six with their only victory coming 65-62 over lowly West Virginia.

This poor run to close out the season has put Baylor on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and not even a win over Kansas would put it on the right side of the bubble. As a result, I look for the Bears to come out flat today and for the more hungry Jayhawks to run away with this one.

Baylor is 1-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings in Baylor winning by 14, 20, 10, 26, 20 and 21 points. These four trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the Jayhawks. Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Colorado -8

While the Colorado Buffaloes (20-9) are coming off a big 76-52 home victory over the Oregon Ducks on Thursday night, they are still squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. There's no question they realize this, and as a result they won't allow themselves to overlook lowly Oregon State Saturday.

Colorado is playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple months. It has won nine of its last 12 games overall with two of its three losses coming by a combined four points. The Buffaloes are 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points/game.

Oregon State (13-17) has clearly packed it in. It has lost five straight games, including a 61-72 loss at lowly Utah on Thursday to really prove that it doesn't want to be playing right now. Four of its five losses during this skid have come by double-digits, so the Beavers haven't even been competitive. Don't expect them to start Saturday.

Colorado is 6-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season. It is winning in this spot by 14.7 points/game. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Colorado has won its last three home meetings with Oregon State by 22, 26 and 15 points. Bet Colorado Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +1

The Tennessee Volunteers represent my strongest college basketball release for the entire 2012-13 season Saturday when they host the Missouri Tigers. This is a must-win game for Tennessee as it is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. It won't be lacking any motivation today because of it.

Tennessee has played its best basketball of the season over the past month just to put itself in this position, and I look for it to continue today. The Vols have won seven of their last eight to get to 18-11 on the season. That includes four road wins and three impressive home victories over Kentucky (88-58), LSU (82-72) and Florida (64-58).

The Vols are now 12-3 at home this season. A big reason I'm backing them is the fact that Missouri is a terrible road team. The Tigers are just 2-7 in true road games this season with their only wins coming against SEC bottom feeders Mississippi State and South Carolina, who are a combined 7-27 in conference play this season.

Tennessee is 23-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Vols are 10-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Vols are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These last four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Vols. Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -12.5

The Miami Hurricanes are undervalued Saturday as only a 12.5-point favorite over the lowly Clemson Tigers. That's because they are coming off an ugly last-second home loss to Georgia Tech by a final of 69-71 on Wednesday as a 13-point favorite. A closer look shows why they lost that game.

Miami was coming off a heartbreaking 76-79 loss at Duke, so it was in a hangover situation. Also, the Hurricanes knew in the back of their minds that they could afford to lose that game to the Yellow Jackets with this contest against Clemson looming. They are still one game ahead of Duke in the ACC title race, so a win today will mean they'll be crowned conference champs.

The Hurricanes certainly won't be lacking any motivation with the ACC title on the line. They'll also be hungry to send their seniors out with one final home victory on Senior Day. This is a senior-led team as Kenny Kadji (13.3 PPG), Durand Scott (13.2), Trey McKinney Jones (9.1), Reggie Johnson (8.0) and Julian Gamble (6.6) will all be playing their final home game Saturday. These are five of Miami's top six scorers!

Losers of five straight and eight of their last nine overall, the Clemson Tigers have clearly given up on their season. That includes ugly losses in their last two games with a 61-69 setback at Virginia Tech, and a 61-68 home loss to Boston College. This team simply does not want to be playing in this game today.

Miami is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 14.2 points/game in this spot. The Hurricanes are 27-10-1 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Miami is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Saturday games. Clemson is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Saturday game. Take Miami Saturday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa -12.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are certainly one of the last few teams out if the season were to end today, so they need this win over Nebraska, and maybe a win in the Big Ten Tournament to get in. I look for them to take care of step No. 1 in blowout fashion today.

Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 19-11 because it has so many close losses this season. That includes a 60-64 loss at Nebraska on February 23rd in their first meeting of the season in which the Hawkeyes blew a 41-25 halftime lead. That also puts Iowa in revenge mode today.

Iowa is 15-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.3 points/game. Its only home losses came to Indian and Michigan State by a combined 7 points! This team quietly has one of the best home-court advantages in the league, which makes them continuously undervalued at home.

Nebraska is coming off a big 53-51 home victory over Minnesota as an 8-point underdog. That win really made their season, and now they are in a huge letdown spot here. That's especially the case considering they've already beaten Iowa this season, so they won't be interested at all in this game.

In fact, Nebraska is 0-6 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 22.0 points/game. The Huskers are 0-6 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing in this spot by 18.5 points/game. Iowa is 7-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season, winning by 15.0 points/game in this situation. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -8

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They know they cannot afford to lose this game against Texas A&M Saturday if they want any chance of getting in. That's why I look for the Crimson Tide to put forth an inspired effort as they continue their dominance at home this season.

Arkansas is a sensational 17-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.6 points/game. Its home wins include Kentucky (73-60), Missouri (73-71), Florida (80-69) and Tennessee (73-60), so it has beaten four of the top teams in the conference, including three by double-digits.

Texas A&M has watched its NCAA Tournament hopes slip away by losing three of their last four games overall, including an ugly 57-68 home loss to LSU on Wednesday. That defeat showed that the Aggies had packed it in, and I fully expect them to lay down for the Razorbacks in what will be one of the biggest blowouts on the board Saturday.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. It is coming back to win by 10.9 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 14.6 points/game in this spot. The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State -3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are squarely on the bubble and need this win to get into the NCAA Tournament. A win and they're almost certainly in, while a loss would leave a lot of work to do in the Big 12 Tournament. This is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Iowa State (20-10) is the definition of a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has several close, heartbreaking losses this season, including a pair of overtime losses to Kansas in which the Jayhawks banked in a 3-pointer at the end of regulation, and the refs blew foul calls down the stretch of the other defeat.

West Virginia is simply one of the worst teams in the Big 12 at 13-17 on the season. It has given up on its season for a while now, losers of five straight coming into this one. Four of those five losses came by double-digits, including a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 setback at Kansas.

The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts this season. Iowa State is 9-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. West Virginia is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more 2 straight games since 1997. These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Cyclones. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +5.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are deadlocked in a tie with rival Kansas for the best record in the Big 12. Both teams are 14-3, and the Wildcats would love nothing more than to clinch at least a share of the conference title. They would win it outright with a win and a Jayhawk loss at Baylor later in the day.

While Kansas State certainly won't be lacking any motivation today, you have to question Oklahoma State's mental state of mind coming in. The Cowboys lost 76-87 at Iowa State on Wednesday to drop to 12-5 in the Big 12, a full two games back of both Kansas and Kansas State. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat knowing that they cannot win at least a share of the Big 12 title now.

Oklahoma State is 2-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. The Wildcats are 7-2 SU in true road games this season. The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Utah -2

The Utah Utes have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season. This is a team that has beaten the likes of Washington on the road, and Colorado and Arizona State at home. It has also taken Arizona down to the wire in both meetings, falling by just 3 points on the road and 4 at home to the Wildcats.

Utah is a respectable 9-7 at home this season. It will be up against an Oregon State team that is just 2-6 in true road games this year. It will also be out for revenge on the Beavers after losing the first meeting 64-82 on the road on February 6th.

It appears Oregon State has given up on its season. It has lost four straight with three of those coming by double-digits to drop to 13-16 on the year. It is also coming off a big loss at in-state rival Oregon, setting the Beavers up for a letdown spot here.

Utah is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Utes are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss. Take Utah Thursday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -2.5

The Colorado Buffaloes (19-9) are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize that a home win over Oregon tonight would go a long way in to putting them on the right side of that bubble. That's why the Buffaloes won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

Colorado is 11-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points/game. It has impressive home wins over the likes of Colorado State (70-61), Stanford (75-54), Cal (81-71) and Arizona (71-58). Oregon is actually getting outscored on the road this season with losses to the likes of Cal (54-58), Stanford (52-76) and UTEP (84-91).

The Buffaloes have won three of their last four meetings with the Ducks. Colorado is 8-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Buffaloes. Bet Colorado Thursday.

15* Stanford/Cal ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -5

The Cal Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country. They should be a much heavier home favorite over Stanford tonight because of it. The Bears will be out for revenge tonight from a 59-69 loss at Stanford on January 19th in their first meeting of the season, so they have plenty of reason to be motivated.

Cal has won seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall coming in. That includes two wins over Oregon, a victory at Arizona, and home victories over UCLA and Colorado. The Bears have gotten to 20-9 on the season to put themselves on the right side of the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

Stanford has lost four of its last six games to drop to 17-13 on the season. It is now on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble with almost zero chance of getting in. That's why I look for it to fold tonight and to not even show up as it travels to face the Bears. The Cardinal are just 4-6 in true road games this year.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Bears is the fact that they are just one-half game back of both Oregon and UCLA for the Pac-12 title. They'll be motivated for that, plus this is their final home game of the season, which means it's Senior Night. They certainly want to send their seniors out with one final victory and keep their momentum as they head into the Pac-12 Tournament.

Cal is 7-0 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Cal is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. These six trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bears. Bet Cal Wednesday.

15* WVU/Oklahoma ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma -10

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been coming on very strong to close out the season to put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They also realize that a loss to West Virginia tonight could put them on the wrong side, so they won't be lacking any motivation heading into this one.

Oklahoma has gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall which includes impressive home wins over Kansas (72-66), Baylor (90-76) and Iowa State (86-69). Its only losses came in overtime on the road to Oklahoma State and Texas.

West Virginia has essentially packed it in as it has lost four straight while going 1-3 ATS in the process. Its losses include a 57-73 home loss to Oklahoma State, and a 65-91 road loss to Kansas. Oklahoma already beat WVU 67-57 on the road on January 5th in their first meeting of the season, and I like its chances of winning by 11-plus at home this time around.

The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 13.3 points/game. The Mountaineers are just 3-8 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.6 points/game. Their three road wins have all come against Big 12 bottom feeders in TCU, Texas Tech and Texas.

This is Senior Night for the senior-led Sooners, which only adds to their motivation. Their top two scorers are seniors in Romero Osby (15.2 PPG) and Steven Pledger (11.9). Role players Andrew Fitzgerald (5.8 PPG) and Sam Grooms (4.8 PPG) are also seniors. Look for everyone to rally and try to get these guys one final home win tonight.

The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +3.5

The UConn Huskies are starting to realize that they cannot play in the postseason due to their postseason ban this year. I think it's starting to wear on these players, as evidenced by their recent performances. They are 19-9 on the season and would be an NCAA Tournament team if they were eligible.

The Huskies have lost back-to-back games coming in with setbacks to Georgetown and Cincinnati. I look for them to drop a third straight against a South Florida team that proved it wasn't going to quit on its season with a much-needed 83-73 home victory over DePaul last time out to stop the bleeding.

There's no question the Bulls will be the more motivated team tonight considering this is Senior Night for them. This is a senior-led team as two of their top three scorers are seniors in Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (10.4 PPG) and Jawanza Poland (9.1 PPG). Look for these South Florida players to rally and get Fitzpatrick and Poland a big win in the final home game of their careers.

UConn is 4-13 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. South Florida is 48-28 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with UConn dating back to 2008. Three of those six games went to overtime, including a 69-64 (OT) home win by the Huskies in their first meeting this season on February 3rd, which places the Bulls in revenge mode. Roll with South Florida Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Florida -18

The Florida Gators have plenty of reason to be motivated tonight to bury Vanderbilt. They are one win away from clinching their fourth outright SEC championship and second in three years. I believe they actually come into this game undervalued due to going 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, while the Commodores are overvalued after winning three straight over SEC bottom feeders Georgia, Mississippi State and Auburn.

Adding to the Gators' motivation is the fact that this is Senior Night. This is certainly a senior-led team as its top three scorers are all seniors in Mike Rosario (12.9 PPG), Kenny Boynton (12.5) and Erik Murphy (12.4). Look for huge games from this trio as their teammates rally around them.

Florida is a perfect 14-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.5 points/game. Vanderbilt is just 13-15 on the season, including 5-9 in all road games. This team has no chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Gators bunch tonight.

Vanderbilt is 6-19 ATS after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1997. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Bet Florida Wednesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -3

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a must-win situation tonight against Oklahoma State. This is a team that is squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament. A win over these Cowboys tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble.

Iowa State will be out for revenge following a last-second 76-78 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting. I like its chances of getting payback tonight considering how well this team has played at home all season and even dating back to last year.

The Cyclones have won 22 of their last 23 home games since last season. Their lone loss was a fluke OT loss to Kansas on February 25th in which the refs completely blew the game, and Big 12 officials came back and admitted that.

This will be Senior Night for the Cyclones with Chris Babb, Korie Lucious, Will Clyburn and Tyrus McGee all laying it on the line to try and get a win in the final home game of their career inside magical Hilton Coliseum. These are four of Iowa State's top six scorers, combining to average nearly 48 points/game!

The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series dating back to 2005. Iowa State is 40-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Iowa State Wednesday.

20* UNC/Maryland ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland PK

The Maryland Terrapins are a team squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament right now. A win over UNC tonight would put them on the good side of the bubble. I like their chances of picking up a "W" considering how well they have played at home this year.

Maryland is 20-9 overall and a brilliant 16-2 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 14.2 points/game at home this year. Its home wins include NC State and Duke.

North Carolina is just 6-6 on the road this season. It comes in overvalued due to its current five-game winning streak. With rival Duke on deck, the Tar Heels will be overlooking the Terrapins and looking ahead to that matchup with the Blue Devils.

UNC is 2-9 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 4-14 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 25-8 ATS in home games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. Take Maryland Wednesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Syracuse -18.5

The Syracuse Orange come into this game with DePaul highly motivated for a victory. They are riding a season-high 3-game losing streak coming in with losses to Georgetown, Marquette and Louisville, which are the three teams with the best records in the Big East.

Now, they get to face Big East punching bag DePaul to get back on track. The Blue Demons have lost four straight and 13 of their last 14 overall with their lone win coming at home over Rutgers. Syracuse has won its last two meetings with DePaul 87-68 on the road, and 107-59 at home.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Orange is the fact that this will be Senior Night. That means that they'll be honoring two of their top three scorers in Brandon Triche (14.2 PPG) and James Southerland (13.8 PPG). Look for this team to rally around each other and put an end to this skid while also getting these seniors one final home win by 20-plus points.

DePaul is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average of 22.7 points/game. The Orange are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. They are winning in this spot by 22.9 points/game. Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Kansas State -21

Looking to regain a share of the conference lead, the Kansas State Wildcats will absolutely crush the TCU Horned Frogs at home tonight. This is also Senior Night for the Wildcats, meaning this will be the final home game for leading scorer Rodney McGruder (14.9 PPG) as well as Jordan Henriquez and Martavious Irving.

Kansas State clearly wont be lacking any motivated tonight as it looks to build on its 15-1 home record this year. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.0 points/game at home. TCU is just 1-9 in true road games, getting outscored by 16.2 points/game.

TCU made its season by beating Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog. It has clearly packed it in since and is simply playing out its season. That's evident by the fact that the Horned Frogs are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which includes losses at Oklahoma (48-75), Iowa State (53-87) and Kansas (48-74).

The Horned Frogs are 0-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Notre Dame -9.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a ton of reasons to be motivated for a victory tonight over the St. Johns Red Storm. I like their chances of getting a double-digit blowout victory with everything they have working in their favor tonight.

First, this is Senior Night for the Fighting Irish. Jack Cooley should be motivated for his final home game on what figures to be an emotional night since sixth-year forward Scott Martin will also be honored. Martin has been shut down indefinitely since Jan. 21 due to his recurring knee problems.

Cooley was held scoreless for the first time in 57 games in a 72-64 loss at then-No. 22 Marquette on Saturday. He hadn't practiced the previous two days and was on an IV because of the flu. He played just 15 minutes against the Golden Eagles before being shut down as he simply wasn't himself. Healthy now, and motivated to bounce back from that defeat, I look for a huge game from Cooley in this one.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Fighting Irish have lost three straight to St. Johns heading into this one, including a 63-67 road loss to the Red Storm in their first meeting of the season on January 15th. All three of their losses during this skid have come on the road, but the Irish return home for revenge.

Notre Dame is 16-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.9 points/game. St. Johns is just 4-6 in true road games this season. The Red Storm figure to be an easier opponent Tuesday as losers of four of five. D'Angelo Harrison, averaging 17.8 points to rank among the conference's leaders, was suspended for the rest of the season Friday by coach Steve Lavin.

St. Johns is 0-7 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Red Storm are 1-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Irish. Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Irish winning each of their last three home meetings by 13 points or more. Take Notre Dame Tuesday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Clemson -4

The Boston College Eagles are coming off a big come-from-behind 53-52 home victory over NCAA Tournament contender Virginia on Sunday. Off such a huge upset, I look for the Eagles to fail to show up tonight when they travel to Clemson to take on the Tigers for a second time this season.

Clemson has every reason to be motivated tonight. It wants revenge from a 68-75 loss at Boston College on February 2nd in their first meeting of the season. This is also Senior Night for the Tigers as they clearly want to send out their seniors with one final home victory.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Boston College and Clemson. In fact, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2003 with the Tigers being the only team to nab a road win in 2009. Clemson is 5-0 in its last 5 home meetings with Boston College dating back to 2003. All five victories have come by 8 points or more and by an average of 16 points/game.

The Tigers are 31-13 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. Clemson is 58-37 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Clemson Tuesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -3.5

This is a must-win game for the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini. At 18-11 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play, Iowa needs a big finish to get into the NCAA Tournament. It needs a win tonight, at home against Nebraska, and in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and it will likely be in as it would move above .500 in the brutal Big Ten.

Illinois comes in overvalued due to having won six of its last seven games overall. Most of those victories have come against Big Ten bottom feeders in Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State and Nebraska. This team should not be getting this much respect on the road tonight.

That's especially the case considering how well Iowa has played at home this season. It is 14-2 inside of Carver Hawkeye Arena while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.8 points/game. It has home wins over NCAA Tournament contenders in Minnesota (72-51), Wisconsin (70-66) and Iowa State (80-71).

Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Iowa is 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

15* Cincinnati/Louisville ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +11

The Cincinnati Bearcats are showing awesome value as a double-digit road underdog to the Louisville Cardinals Monday night. I like Cincinnati to cover this spread for a number of reasons tonight with the biggest being their play on the road this year.

The Bearcats have played their best basketball away from home during the 2012-13 season. They are 8-4 in all road games this year with wins over the likes of Iowa State (78-70), Oregon (77-66), Xavier (60-45), and Pittsburgh (70-61). They also played Syracuse to a 2-point game (55-57) as an 8.5-point underdog.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot off their upset 58-53 road victory over the Orange on Saturday. Off such a big win, it will be very though for Louisville to come back and give the kind of effort it will take to beat these feisty Bearcats by more than 11 points.

Louisville is known for its press which can give teams fits. However, Cincinnati has the perfect antidote with two of the best guards in the country. Leading scorers Sean Kilpatrick (17.7 PPG) and Cashmere Wright (12.6 PPG) will have no problem handling this press. Also, third-leading scorer JaQuon Parker (11.0 PPG) can handle the ball as well. Cincinnati is one of the few teams that is lucky enough to have its three best players being guards.

This play falls into a system that is 45-13 (77.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less.

When you look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see why I'm taking the points tonight. Each of the last seven meetings dating back to 2008 have been decided by 9 points or less. Cincinnati has won four of those seven contests outright. That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the double-digit underdog Bearcats tonight.

The Bearcats are 10-0 ATS in road games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in road games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati Monday.

15* Michigan State/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan -4.5

The Michigan Wolverines come into this game with the overrated Michigan State Spartans highly motivated for a victory. They are coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season after blowing a double-digit lead at Penn State on February 27th by a final of 78-84. That was the Nittany Lions' first conference win of the season.

It's clear the Michigan was looking ahead to this game against its biggest rival in the Spartans. It wants serious revenge from an ugly 52-75 loss at Michigan State in its first meeting of the season on February 12th. You won't see these Wolverines' players and this crowd more fired up than what they will be today throughout the rest of the season.

I really like Michigan's chances of bouncing back from that loss to Penn State and getting revenge in blowout fashion considering how well it has played at home this year. It is a perfect 16-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.4 points/game.

Michigan State is 3-19 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog since 1997. Michigan is 40-23 ATS in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Michigan. Take Michigan Sunday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Boston College +4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are in a huge letdown spot Sunday as they travel to face the Boston College Eagles. That's because the Cavaliers are coming off their biggest win of the season on Thursday with a 73-68 victory over Duke. That win almost certainly cemented their spot in the NCAA Tournament, which is why they are ripe for a letdown here.

Boston College has quietly been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season with several close losses on the year. I have no doubt this team is better than its 12-16 record would indicate. It will be out for revenge after a 51-65 loss at Virgina in their first meeting on January 26th.

The Eagles have been solid at home this season. They have gone 10-6 at home with wins over the likes of Clemson, Wake Forest, Providence and Maryland. They also have close home losses to the likes of NC State (73-78) as a 7.5-point dog, Miami (59-60) as a 6-point dog and Duke (61-62) as an 11-point dog.

While Virginia has been one of the best home teams in the country, it has simply been atrocious on the road this year. The Cavaliers are 3-7 in all road games this season with some ugly losses to the likes of George Mason (59-63), Wake Forest (52-55), Clemson (44-59), Georgia Tech (60-66) and UNC (81-93).

This play falls into a system that is 161-89 (64.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 straight losses against conference rivals.

Boston College is 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. Boston College is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games. The Cavaliers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Roll with Boston College Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State -2

The Missouri State Bears will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home to face the Bradley Braves Saturday night. They are coming off an ugly 50-86 road loss at Illinois State last time out, and this will be their final regular season game tonight.

That means it will be Senior Day for the Bears. They certainly want to send out senior Anthony Downing a winner in his final home game ever. Downing is the team's best player as he leads them in points (13.7) and assists (2.7). He is the heart and soul of this team, and that's why I look for his teammates to go the extra mile to get him one final home win.

Missouri State also wants revenge from a 66-69 road loss at Bradley on January 19th as a 9-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting payback at home this time around considering the Braves are just 4-10 in all road games this year. They have some absolutely embarrassing road losses to UNI (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79). The Bears have won 12 of their last 15 home meetings with the Braves.

Bradley is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Bears. Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -4

The Evansville Purple Aces should be a much bigger home favorite over the Indiana State Sycamores Saturday. This is Senior Day for Evansville as it will be their last home game of the season. It obviously wants to win this one for its seniors.

Evansville has saved its best basketball for the end of the season. It is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall with its only loss coming 68-71 as a 5-point home underdog to Creighton. It has reeled off three straight impressive victories since with a 79-62 home win over Illinois State as a 1-point dog, a 70-58 triumph at Wright State as a 1.5-point dog, and a 59-56 victory at Wichita State as an 11.5-point dog.

While the Purple Aces are rolling right now, the Sycamores have clearly packed it in. Indiana State has gone 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall. It has lost four of its last five games overall with its only win coming 65-64 at home against Iona as a 5-point favorite. It has losses ugly losses to Missouri State (65-67), Bradley (68-80) and Drake (56-67) during this stretch. It doesn't even want to be here Saturday.

Evansville is 13-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points/game. Indiana State is just 4-8 in true road games this year. The Purple Aces want revenge from a 62-72 road loss at Indiana State on January 19th in their first meeting of the season. I like their chances of getting it at home this time around.

Indiana State is 1-10 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Evansville is 6-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Purple Aces are 6-0 ATS after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Sycamores are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Purple Aces are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the homer team. Bet Evansville Saturday.

25* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas -3

The Arkansas Razorbacks are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. This is a must-win game for them at home against Kentucky Saturday afternoon. The Razorbacks won't be lacking any motivation when they welcome the Wildcats to Bud Walton Arena today.

Arkansas is coming off back-to-back road losses to Florida and LSU heading into this contest. Those are two of the best teams in the SEC, and those road losses should come as no surprise considering how poorly it has played on the road. However, its home-court advantage has been huge this season.

The Razorbacks are a sensational 16-1 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 16.8 points/game. Their home wins include Vanderbilt (56-33), Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71). The Wildcats are just 4-5 in true road games this year.

Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 3-game winning streak. All three of those victories came at home over Vanderbilt (74-70), Missouri (OT) and Mississippi State. They were favored in all three contests as none of those wins were impressive. The Wildcats have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion to Florida (52-69) and Tennessee (58-88). They'll miss the presence of Nerlens Noel (out for season) on the road today.

Arkansas is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-2 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* Butler/VCU ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Butler +7

Any time the Butler Bulldogs are catching points they are certainly worth a look. That's especially the case here Saturday as they are getting 7 points against Virginia Commonwealth. This is a Butler team that continues to be underrated year in and year out, and that has certainly been the case again this season.

That's evident by the fact that Butler is 22-6 on the season and a very profitable 16-10 ATS. That includes a 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS mark in road games this year. The Bulldogs have impressive outright wins over Marquette (72-71) as a 4-point dog, North Carolina (82-71) as an 8.5-point dog, Indiana (88-86) as an 11-point dog, St. Josephs (72-66) as a 2.5-point dog and Gonzaga (64-63) as a 2-point dog. They are 7-2 ATS as a dog this season.

VCU is one of the more overrated teams in the country. It also holds a 22-6 record like Butler, but it is just 8-13 ATS in all lined games this year. This is a quality Rams team but not one that should be favored by 7 points in what is a very evenly matched game. They have really been overvalued of late, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Butler is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. VCU is 0-6 ATS in home games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 0-8 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Bulldogs. Take Butler Saturday.

15* Duke/Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -1

The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. At 19-8, they are fighting to make the NCAA Tournament and they know that a win at home over Duke Thursday night would all but cement their place in the Big Dance. Look for this team to be more motivated for this game tonight than any other contest all season.

Virginia simply does not lose at home. It is 16-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points/game. Its home wins include Tennessee (46-38), North Carolina (61-52), Florida State (56-36), Boston College (65-51), NC State (58-55), Clemson (78-41), Virginia Tech (73-55) and Georgia Tech (82-54). As you can see, all but one of their ACC home wins have come via blowout.

Duke is only 4-3 in true road games this season with losses at NC State (76-84), Miami (63-90) and Maryland (81-83). This will be the first meeting between these teams this season, but the Cavaliers played the Blue Devils very tough on the road in their lone meeting last year. Virginia lost at Duke 58-61 as a 10.5-point underdog. It's revenge time at home this time around ladies and gents.

Virginia is 7-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games in February games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Take Virginia Thursday.

15* Missouri/South Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Carolina +9.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks are showing excellent value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Missouri Tigers tonight. Despite being just 13-14 on the season, Frank Martin's club has shown that it is not going to pack it in.

South Carolina's last three games have resulted in a 58-68 loss at Alabama as a 12-point underdog, a 63-62 home upset of Ole Miss as a 6-point dog, and a 54-62 (OT) loss at Georgia as a 7-point dog. All three showing were very impressive and improved that the Gamecocks aren't going to pack it in.

The Gamecocks already showed that they could play with Missouri in their first meeting, falling 65-71 as a 13.5-point road underdog. I like their chances of possibly pulling off the upset at home this time around considering that Missouri is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only win coming at SEC bottom feeder Mississippi State.

The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games overall. The Tigers are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Missouri has no business being this heavily favored tonight with how poorly it has played on the road all season. Roll with South Carolina Thursday.

20* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico -5

The New Mexico Lobos will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season tonight. The No. 14 Lobos lost 34-55 at San Diego State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season. They have won six of seven since with their only loss coming at UNLV to improve to 23-4 on the year.

I really like New Mexico's chances of getting revenge considering how well it has played at home this season. It is 13-1 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 11.9 points/game. "The Pit" is one of the most underrated basketball venues in the country.

San Diego State is just 1-4 in its last five true road games with losses to Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State and UNLV. None of those four teams are as good as this New Mexico bunch. The Lobos are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Mountain West opponents.

New Mexico is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These two trends combine for an 11-0 system backing the Lobos. Bet New Mexico Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -8.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are finally undervalued as only an 8.5-point home favorite over the Texas A&M Aggies tonight. They had been overvalued for the past month after their tremendous start this season. Now is the time to jump back on their bandwagon as they are 20-7 on the season and fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.

Texas A&M (16-11) had its hopes of making the Big Dance crushed with an 85-93 home loss to Tennessee on Saturday. It now has little to play for the rest of the way, and off such a tough overtime defeat, I look for it to suffer a hangover tonight.

Ole Miss is 14-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.6 points/game. Rarely will you get the Rebels as a single-digit home favorite with how dominant they have been all season at home. Texas A&M is just 6-7 in all road games this year.

This is also a revenge spot for the Rebels after falling 67-69 at Texas A&M on February 13th just two weeks ago. That adds even more fuel to the fire for Ole Miss tonight. The Rebels are 7-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Bet Ole Miss Wednesday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE NIGHT on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over the Arkansas Razorbacks. LSU (16-9) still has an shot at making the NCAA Tournament thanks to playing its best basketball of the season here over the past few weeks.

LSU has gone 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. All three of its losses during this stretch came on the road at Kentucky (70-75) as a 15.5-point underdog, at Alabama (57-60) as an 8.5-point dog, and at Tennessee (72-82) as a 7-point dog. It has gone a perfect 5-0 at home during this stretch with wins over the likes of Texas A&M< Missouri and Alabama.

With those five straight home wins, LSU has improved to a solid 13-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.6 points/game. Arkansas is one of the worst road teams in the country. It is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only victory coming over SEC bottom feeder Mississippi State. It is getting outscored by 11.7 points/game in true road games this season.

The home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between LSU and Arkansas since 2010. In fact, the home team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Tigers. Roll with LSU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +13

The Penn State Nittany Lions are highly motivated for a win Wednesday when they host the Michigan Wolverines. They enter this contest winless (0-14) in Big Ten play, which has them way undervalued right now. That's why they are catching too many points tonight as they fight for that elusive first conference victory.

Head coach Patrick Chambers has done an amazing job of getting his players to continue to fight despite being winless in conference play. In fact, Penn State is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games overall with a 72-74 home loss to Iowa as an 8-point dog, a 71-79 loss at Michigan as a 22-point dog, and a 59-64 loss at Illinois as a 14.5-point dog.

Now, playing Michigan just 10 days after their first meeting, I look for Penn State to once again give the Wolverines a run for their money at home this time around. The Wolverines are in a big letdown spot here with Michigan State on deck. They will have a hard time getting motivated to play this Nittany Lions' bunch considering they just beat them by 8 at home 10 days ago.

Chambers is a perfect 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog in all games he has coached. His teams are actually winning in this spot 70.5 to 57.6 on average. John Beilein is 1-8 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game as the coach of Michigan. Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* Florida/Tennessee ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Tennessee +8.5

The Tennessee Volunteers should not be catching nearly double-digits points at home tonight against the Florida Gators. Tennessee comes into this game playing its best basketball of the season. It has gotten to 16-10 on the year to put itself in position to make the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish.

The Volunteers are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. That includes three road wins at South Carolina (66-61), Vanderbilt (68-46) and Texas A&M (93-85), as well as blowout home victories over Kentucky (88-58) and LSU (82-72). Tennessee is 11-3 at home this season.

Florida has shown signs of coming back down to reality here of late. It has gone just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games overall, which includes road losses at Arkansas (69-80) and Missouri (60-63) despite being the favorite in both contests.

Tennessee has had Florida's number in recent meetings. It actually won both meetings last season with a 67-56 home victory as a 7.5-point underdog, and a 75-70 road win as a 12-point dog. The Gators are 7-15 ATS in the last 22 meetings, including 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Tennessee.

This play falls into a system that is 40-10 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLORIDA) - after allowing 60 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games.

Tennessee is 9-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 32-16 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) since 1997. Roll with Tennessee Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis -4.5

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 24-3 on the season yet almost nobody in the media is talking about them. As a result, they remain undervalued. They should be a much heavier favorite over the Xavier Musketeers tonight.

Memphis has won 18 straight games coming in. I've seen this team play several times and I truly believe it can beat anyone in the country. This is the most athletic team in the land, and that athleticism will prove to be too much for Xavier tonight.

At 15-11 on the season, the Musketeers have little to play for the rest of the way. They are coming off a 71-75 home loss to VCU on Saturday, and it will be hard to recover from such a defeat. That's especially the case considering they are likely to be without starting PG Dee Davis, who scored 15 points against VCU. Davis is doubtful with concussion-like symptoms.

What's most impressive about the Tigers is the fact that they have been able to play their best basketball on the road this season. They are a perfect 7-0 in true road games this year, outscoring opponents by an eye-opening 12.4 points/game. Their road wins includes an 85-80 victory at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog, an 89-76 win at Southern Miss as a 1-point dog, and a 71-59 triumph at Marshall as a 9.5-point favorite.

The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Xavier is 2-12 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Take Memphis Tuesday.

15* Kansas/Iowa State ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State +1.5

The Iowa State Cyclones should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Kansas Jayhawks. I'll gladly take advantage and back one of the most underrated teams in the country tonight to take down the ninth-ranked Jayhawks. This team simply does not lose at home.

Iowa State is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of a ridiculous 20.6 points/game. In fact, it has won 22 straight home games dating back to last season, including a 72-64 win over then-No. 5 Kansas on January 28th of last year. You'll see tonight how ISU's Hilton Coliseum is one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.

The Cyclones will clearly be out for revenge after falling 89-97 in overtime at Kansas in their first meeting of the season on January 9th. Iowa State was robbed of a victory as Kansas' Ben McLemore banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to send the game into overtime. The Cyclones wouldn't recover in the extra session, but they'll have their revenge at home this time around.

"We know we let one slip away," Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg said that night. "But at the same time, if you come in here and compete with a team that's won eight championships in a row, you can compete with anyone."

Kansas is 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in home games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. These six trends combine for a perfect 37-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Monday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Virginia -9.5

I fully expect the Virginia Cavaliers to roll by double-digits at home today over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in ACC action. The Cavaliers (18-8) are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament and they need to finish strong if they want to be playing in the Big Dance.

Off two straight road losses to North Carolina (81-93) and Miami (50-54), Virginia will be highly motivated for a victory when it returns home today to face lowly Georgia Tech (14-11). The Cavaliers are a sensational 15-1 SU & 11-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points/game.

Virginia actually lost at Georgia Tech 60-66 in their first meeting of the season. The revenge factor only adds more fuel to the Cavaliers' fire today. They'll be up against a Yellow Jackets squad that is just 2-5 in true road games this season. Georgia Tech is just 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These two trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the Cavaliers. Bet Virginia Sunday.

15* Washington/ASU ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona State -4.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are a bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament at 20-7 on the season. While they have a ton to play for at this point of the season, the Washington Huskies (14-13) do not. They will simply be playing out their season, which has appeared to be the case for several weeks now.

Washington is just 2-8 in its last 10 games overall with those two victories both coming at home. It has lost five straight road games during this skid, including a 52-70 setback at Arizona on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Arizona State has won two straight coming in with a 63-62 victory at Colorado as an 8-point underdog, and a 69-57 home win over Washington State as a 6.5-point favorite.

The Sun Devils will also be out for revenge heading into this one. That's because they lost at Washington 92-96 in their first meeting of the season on February 2nd roughly three weeks ago. There's no question that ASU is the team that wants this one more Saturday when these two square off.

Arizona State is 15-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 8.4 points/game. Washington is only 4-6 in true road games. The Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Arizona State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall. The Sun Devils are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet Arizona State Saturday.

25* CBB Bracketbuster GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa -4

The Northern Iowa Panthers take on the Denver Pioneers in a bracketbuster game Saturday in non-conference action. I am laying the wood on the Panthers as only a 4-point home favorite today as they continue playing their best basketball of the season.

Northern Iowa has won six straight games coming in, which includes home victories over Wichita State (57-52) and Creighton (61-54), which are considered the two best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. They also went on the road and beat Bradley, Drake and Missouri State during this run.

Denver is a quality team at 17-8, but the fact of the matter is that it plays in the very weak conference in the in the WAC. This is a Pioneers' team that plays much better at home than they do on the road. They are just 7-6 in true road games this season. They'll be up against a Panthers team that is 12-2 at home while outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.9 points/game there.

Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Pioneers are 13-44-1 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Florida ESPNU No-Brainer on Florida -18.5

The Florida Gators (21-4) will be more motivated for a win Saturday than they have been at any other point this season. They just blew a double-digit second-half lead at Missouri last time out on Tuesday to fall 60-63. They'll be pissed off from that loss, and they'll also be out for revenge from a 69-80 loss at Arkansas as a 10.5-point favorite in their first meeting of the season on February 5th.

Florida returns home where it is 12-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 27.4 points/game. Arkansas has been excellent at home as well where it has lost just one game all season. However, the Razorbacks are just 1-6 in true road games this season.

Arkansas' road losses include blowout defeats at the hands of Michigan (67-80), Texas A&M (51-69), South Carolina (54-75) and Vanderbilt (49-67). If the Razorbacks could lose on the road by 18 to both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and by 21 to South Carolina, you can just imagine what a motivated Florida team is going to do to them Saturday.

Another big reason to back the Gators tonight is the fact that they'll be the more prepared, more rested team heading in. That's because they last played on Tuesday against Missouri, while Arkansas squeaked out an ugly 62-60 home victory over Georgia on Thursday. The edge certainly goes to Florida in rest and preparation because of it.

The Razorbacks are 19-46 ATS in their last 65 road games. Arkansas is 15-41 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Arkansas is 0-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas Jayhawks -23.5

The Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they host the TCU Horned Frogs. Not only are the Jayhawks fighting for the Big 12 title with Kansas State and Oklahoma State, they also want revenge on the Horned Frogs for their most embarrassing loss of the season.

TCU actually beat Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog in their first meeting of the season. Kansas scored just 13 points in the first half in what head coach Bill Self called the worst performance in program history. You can bet that these players will want to run up the scoreboard on TCU to make a statement in this one.

The Horned Frogs have fallen flat on their faces since that huge upset. They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall with home losses to West Virginia (50-63) and Texas (59-68), and road losses to Oklahoma (48-75) and Iowa State (53-87). If Oklahoma won by 27 and Iowa State won by 34, you can just imagine what Kansas is going to do to TCU in the rematch Saturday.

TCU is 0-6 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. TCU is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 road games. The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. These four trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Jayhawks. Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -1.5

The Texas A&M Aggies should be a much bigger home favorite over the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday. Texas A&M still has an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament, and it will be laying it all on the line to get a win in this one because of it.

The Aggies have been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month while going 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. All three of its losses during this stretch came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road. It has impressive home wins over both Missouri and Ole Miss during this span.

Texas A&M is 11-4 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season. Tennessee is just 2-6 in true road games this season which is why I believe it is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. Plus, the Vols come in overvalued due to their four-game winning streak that includes unimpressive wins over South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky (minus Noel) and LSU.

This play falls into a system that is 87-49 (64%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against an underdog (TENNESSEE) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more.

Tennessee is 6-21 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1997. Texas A&M is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Texas Tech +19.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are way overvalued as nearly a 20-point home favorite over the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday. Sure, the Cyclones are one of the best home teams in the country, but asking them to win by 20-plus is simply asking too much.

This is a huge letdown spot for Iowa State. It is coming off its first significant road win of the season with an 87-82 triumph at Baylor. With Kansas on deck Monday, there's no question that the Cyclones will be overlooking these Red Raiders and looking ahead to that huge showdown with the Jayhawks.

Texas Tech already beat Iowa State once this season with a 56-51 home victory as a 10.5-point underdog on January 23rd. It has played some other good teams tough this season, including a 64-66 loss at West Virginia as a 14-point underdog in its last road game on February 16th.

This play falls into a system that is 83-41 (66.9%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against a home team (IOWA ST) - a very good team (>=+8 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG differential), after a combined score of 165 points or more.

The Red Raiders are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Roll with Texas Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on LSU -2.5

The LSU Tigers are out for revenge on the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday. They lost the first meeting of the season 57-60 at Alabama on February 9th just two weeks ago as an 8.5-point underdog. I like the Tigers' chances of returning the favor at home in the rematch.

LSU is a very solid 12-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.9 points/game. It is scoring 73.3 points/game at home this year. Alabama is just 4-5 in true road games this season where it is scoring a mere 57.7 points/game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Alabama and LSU. The home team has won nine of the last 11 meetings dating back to 2008. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. In fact, LSU is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Meanwhile, Alabama is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Putting the icing on the cake is the fact that the Tigers are 8-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons. Roll with LSU Saturday.

15* ACC GAME OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +7.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons should not be catching 7.5 points at home today to the Miami Hurricanes. I'll gladly take advantage and back the home squad in a game that I believe they have an excellent chance to win outright.

At 22-3 and as the No. 2 team in the country, the Hurricanes come into this contest way overvalued. They are also a perfect 13-0 in ACC play which has the betting public continuing to back them. Miami has started to show signs of coming back down to reality as each of its last three victories have come by 6 points or less over FSU (74-68), Clemson (45-43) and Virginia (54-50).

Wake Forest is just 11-15 on the season, but this is certainly a team that is much better than its record would indicate. It has played very well at home this year where it is 9-4 SU & 7-3 ATS on the season. It has home wins over the likes of Xavier (66-59), Virginia (55-52), NC State (86-84) and Florida State (71-46). It also has a narrow home loss to Duke (70-75) as a 13.5-point underdog.

One of the biggest reasons I am on Wake Forest Saturday is the fact that it has had a week to prepare for Miami since last playing on February 16th in a 56-57 loss to Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, this will be the 3rd game in 7 days for Miami as it played Clemson on 17th and Virginia on the 19th. The Demon Deacons will have a huge edge in rest and preparation.

The Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Wake Forest is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games following a ATS loss. The Demon Deacons are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -1.5

The Butler Bulldogs should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Saint Louis Billikens. The 15th-ranked Bulldogs can clear a big hurdle by assuming sole possession of first place with a win over surging conference leader Saint Louis on Friday night.

Butler (22-5, 9-3) has endured injuries to its three leading scorers in its first A-10 season but trails the Billikens (20-5, 9-2) by only one-half game. Now healthy, and out for revenge from an ugly 58-75 loss at Saint Louis on January 31st in their first meeting of the season, I look for the Bulldogs to roll at home tonight.

The Bulldogs are a sensational 13-1 at Hinkle Fieldhouse this season, which includes wins over the likes of Gonzaga and Temple. They also beat No. 1 Indiana on a neutral court earlier this season. They are outscoring opponents by a whopping 13.5 points/game at home this year.

Butler is 37-21 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 10-2 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. Butler is 10-3 ATS 10-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Jim Crews is 4-16 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% in all games he has coached since 1997. Take Butler Friday.

Note - I released this play Thursday night anticipating the line would move so my long-term clients could get in early. It has done just that and it up to -3 in most places. I still recommend a wager on Butler -3 and to buy it to that number if it moves any higher.

15* Big Ten GAME OF THE NIGHT on Penn State +16

The Penn State Nittany Lions are way undervalued heading into this game with the Illinois Fighting Illini. That's because they are winless in Big Ten play despite coming so close so many times. There's no question this team is going to continue to fight to try and earn that first conference victory, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them get it tonight as a 16-point road underdog at inconsistent Illinois.

Penn State has shown that it is not going to throw in the towel. It has gone 2-0 ATS in its last two games with a 72-74 home loss to Iowa as an 8-point underdog, and an impressive 71-79 loss at Michigan as a 22-point dog. There's no way this team should be catching this big of a number against the Fighting Illini tonight.

Illinois comes in overvalued due to its current four-game winning streak which includes victories over Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Northwestern. With Michigan on deck, this is a big letdown spot for the Illini as they'll simply be overlooking the Nittany Lions. Remember, this is the same Illini team that has ugly losses to Purdue (61-68), Minnesota (67-84), Wisconsin (51-74), Northwestern (54-68) and Michigan (60-74) on its resume. I have no doubt the Nittany Lions can hang tonight.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, it tends to let down and not play well following a blowout home win. I look for that to be the case against tonight. Roll with Penn State Thursday.

15* Georgia/Arkansas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arkansas -10

The Arkansas Razorbacks (16-9) are making a nice push here of late to stake their claim in an NCAA Tournament bid. They have won four of their last five, including home wins over Tennessee (73-60), Florida (80-69) and Missouri (73-71) to really boost their resume. They realize they need to finish out the season strong to make the Big Dance so they have every reason to be motivated tonight.

Off back-to-back losses to Alabama (45-52) at home and Ole Miss (74-84) on the road, the Georgia Bulldogs have little to play for. They had won five straight prior, but now all of their momentum is gone. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect because of it and to simply just play out their season and look forward to the SEC Tournament. They aren't "in the now" mentally like the Razorbacks are.

Arkansas has been one of the best home teams in the country all season. It is 15-1 at home this year while outscoring opponents by a whopping 17.7 points/game. Georgia is just 3-7 in all road games this season, scoring a mere 59.0 points/game. It won't be able to keep up with a Razorbacks team that is scoring 83.7 points/game at home this year.

The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* Kansas/Oky State ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Kansas +1

The Kansas Jayhawks are going to be highly motivated for revenge tonight. They lost their only home game of the season to these same Oklahoma State Cowboys by a final of 80-85 on February 2nd. I look for these Kansas players to want this game more than any other game they have played this season because of it.

Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has simply been getting all of the breaks in close games of late. Four of its last six wins have come by 5 points or less. It won't be so fortunate tonight.

Bill Self is 16-7 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite as the coach of Kansas. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Kansas Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE NIGHT on Drake -4

The Drake Bulldogs will roll tonight over the Bradley Braves in Missouri Valley Conference action. Drake wants revenge from a 57-67 loss at Bradley on January 29th in their first meeting of the season. I look for them to get it tonight considering how poorly the Braves have played on the road this year.

Bradley is 3-7 in true road games this season. In fact, it is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games in MVC play, losing by double-digits each time. Its road losses over this span include Indiana State (53-68), Northern Iowa (53-84), Evansville (56-66), Wichita State (39-73), Creighton (58-75) and Illinois State (59-79).

Drake comes in hungry for a win following four straight losses to tough competition in Illinois State, Evansville, Wichita State and Northern Iowa. It's not like the Bulldogs are playing that bad either as three of the four losses came by single digits. Drake is 7-5 at home this season which includes impressive wins over Evansville (83-69), Creighton (74-69) and Indiana State (74-71).

Drake is 9-1 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in these spots by an average of 9.0 points/game. The Braves are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Bet Drake Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio State -5

The Ohio State Buckeyes should be a much bigger home favorite over the Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight. Both teams are struggling of late, but I like Ohio State's chances of snapping out of it better since it is playing at home tonight.

Both teams have lost three of their last four. However, Minnesota's losses have come to Iowa, Illinois and Michigan State, while Ohio State's losses have come against Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan with two of those on the road. That's why I'm much less worried about the Buckeyes' recent struggles rather than the Gophers. Minnesota really hasn't been playing well for quite some time now as it has lost seven of its last 10 games overall. This team is consistently overvalued.

Ohio State has really dominated this series in recent meetings. It has gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota. Four of those wins came by double-digits.

The Buckeyes are 13-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 18.4 points/game. The Gophers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the Gophers. Take Ohio State Wednesday.

15* Indiana/Michigan State ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Michigan State -1.5

The Spartans have been absolutely rolling since their 70-75 loss to Indiana on January 27th. They have gone 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 against the spread while beating the likes of Minnesota and Michigan along the way. That includes a dominant 75-52 victory over the Wolverines despite being a 1.5-point underdog in that contest. There

20* WVU/K-State ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on West Virginia +11

The West Virginia Mountaineers are 6-7 in Big 12 play with an outside chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They realize they need a road win like this against Kansas State to boost their chances of playing in the Big Dance.

West Virginia has been playing its best basketball of the season over the past couple weeks. It has won four of its last five games overall, which includes two double-digit road victories at Texas Tech and TCU. The Mountaineers also have a road win at Texas and a 2-point road loss at Iowa State on their resume this season.

I have no doubt that the Mountaineers want revenge badly after falling 64-65 at home to Kansas State on January 12th in their first meeting of the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will have a hard time getting motivated after already beating WVU once. There is a good chance K-State comes out flat after beating Baylor by 20 on Saturday as well.

This play falls into a system that is 133-55 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Bet West Virginia Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa Hawkeyes -1

The Iowa Hawkeyes are showing their best value of the season Sunday as only a 1-point home favorite over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is an Iowa team that is on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. As a result, it won't be lacking any motivation tonight to get a win.

Also motivating these Hawkeyes is the fact that they lost a heartbreaker at Minnesota 59-62 on February 3rd just three weeks ago in their first meeting of the season. They'll want payback from that defeat and I like their chances of getting it at home.

Iowa has clearly played its best basketball of the season at home this year. It is 12-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in all home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.0 points/game. Its only losses have come to Michigan State and Indiana by a combined 7 points, which are two of the top teams in the country. The Hawkeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games overall.

Minnesota is not playing well at all right now and it has no business being favored because of it. The Golden Gophers are just 3-6 SU in their last nine games overall with all three wins coming at home. They have lost each of their last four road games.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Minnesota is 1-12 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Iowa is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a S.U. win. These four trends combined for a 34-3 (92%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State +5

The Missouri State Bears remain one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. This team has made me more money than any other team in the country in this season. I will continue to back them Saturday as I believe they are undervalued as a road underdog to lowly Southern Illinois.

The biggest reason Missouri State is undervalued right now is its 8-18 record. The average bettor looks at that record and wants nothing to do with the Bears. Missouri State has quietly gone a sensational 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall as a result.

While the Bears are 6-8 SU in Missouri Valley play and in the middle of the pack of the conference, the Southern Illinois Salukis are just 3-11 in the MVC and a bottom feeder. The Salukies have no business being favored in this contest.

Missouri State won the first meeting between these teams this season 70-59 despite being a 5-point home underdog. That win should come as no surprise considering this has been a one-sided series in recent years. Missouri State is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last 7 meetings with Southern Illinois dating back to 2010.

The Bears are 7-0 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. Missouri State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. The Salukis are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Southern Illinois is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Take Missouri State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +10

The Michigan State Spartans are in a big letdown spot today against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They are coming off a huge win over in-state rival Michigan at home on Tuesday. It's only human nature for them to not get emotional ready to face a team with a losing record like Nebraska.

Making it even more difficult for the Spartans to get motivated is the fact that they have already beaten the Cornhuskers once this season. Michigan State beat Nebraska 66-56 at home on January 13th as a 17-point favorite. I like the Huskers' chances of staying within double-digits this time around.

Nebraska is 9-6 at home this season with wins over the likes of USC, Northwestern and Penn State. It has also played teams like Wisconsin (41-47) and Ohio State (56-63) close at home. Michigan State is just 5-3 in true road games this season.

The Huskers are 9-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival this season. Michigan State is 2-8 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games this season. The Spartans are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Nebraska is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Huskers. Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oregon -3

The Oregon Ducks should be a much bigger favorite Saturday over the lowly Washington Cougars. Oregon is a team that would be in the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today, but it realizes it cannot afford a slip up if it wants to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.

While the Ducks (20-5) have everything to play for, the Cougars (11-14) have almost nothing to play for at this point in the season. Washington State has lost five straight games coming in to drop to 2-10 in Pac-12 play this season. It has no chance of beating one of the top teams in the conference Saturday.

This play falls into a system that is 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams as an underdog or pick (WASHINGTON ST) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off a home loss by 3 points or less.

Oregon is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Washington State, winning all four games by 7 points or more. The Ducks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Washington State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oregon Saturday.