Winning Sports Picks

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +16.5

The UCLA Bruins are in a huge letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 75-59 home victory over Arizona on Tuesday.  Now they have just one day to get ready for California, and they won't be that motivated to beat a Golden Bears team they have already beaten once on the road.

That's going to make it hard for the Bruins to cover this 16.5-point spread when they're lacking the motivation to do so.  Meanwhile, California wants revenge from that 52-60 home loss as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now this number has been adjusted 8 points for home-court advantage, which is way too much given the spot.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Golden Bears after going 0-5 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have faced a brutal schedule during this stretch with three of the losses coming to USC, UCLA and Arizona at home and Washington and Washington State on the road.  Only one of the five losses came by more than 14 points.  California is rested and ready to go having last played on Sunday, so they have had three days off to get ready for the Bruins.

The Golden Bears are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  California is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  The Golden Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss.  California is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  UCLA is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  Six of the last seven meetings in this series were decided by 15 points or less.  Bet California Thursday.

20* Purdue/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +2.5

Iowa wants revenge from a 77-70 road loss at Purdue in their first meeting this season.  The Hawkeyes didn't have their best player in Keegan Murray (22.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG) for that contest, so having him healthy for the rematch will make all the difference.  It was actually impressive they kept that game competitive without him.

Iowa is 11-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Illinois.  The Hawkeyes are stomping teams at home this season, outscoring them by 22.5 points per game.  Purdue is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with upset losses to Indiana and Rutgers.  Winning on the road in the Big Ten is tougher than any other conference in the country.

Purdue is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Boilermakers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Iowa is 33-15-3 ATS in its last 51 home games, including 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog.  The home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  Take Iowa Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Texas A&M +10

Buzz Williams is turning around this Texas A&M program just as he has done in his previous stops at Marquette and Virginia Tech.  He is easily one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He has the Aggies sitting at 15-4 this season with three losses by 6 points or less and an 11-point loss to Wisconsin.

The Aggies should not be catching double-digits against LSU, which is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its last three games overall, including a 14-point loss at Tennessee and an upset home loss by 7 to Arkansas as a 6.5-point favorite.  Two of LSU's top three scorers in Xavier Pinson (10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Darius Days (13.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) are both questionable tonight.  I like the Aggies to stay within this number even if both guys play.

LSU is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -1.5

I love the spot for the West Virginia Mountaineers tonight.  They are coming off three straight losses to the three best teams in the Big 12 in Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech.  They will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight, and they take a big step down in class against Oklahoma.

The Sooners continue to get too much respect from the books.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are just 2-5 in Big 12 play this season with both wins coming at home against Kansas State and Iowa State in which they needed late surges to put those games away.  They are 1-3 SU in true road games this season with their lone win coming at UCF by 3.

West Virginia is 10-1 SU at home this season and has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The only loss came to Baylor and they were competitive for 40 minutes in that game.  The Mountaineers are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 home games after going over the total in three or more consecutive games.  West Virginia is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Sooners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Roll with West Virginia Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence +8.5

The Providence Friars have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 16-2 this season which includes outright upset road wins at Wisconsin, at Connecticut and at DePaul.  So they have proven they can travel and beat great teams.

Now the Friars are catching 8.5 points against a Xavier team that has been overvalued for weeks.  The Musketeers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone cover coming in a road win at lowly Butler.

Providence is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Xavier with only two losses by more than 6 points.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Providence is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Friars are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Providence Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri +13.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Auburn Tigers.  I cashed in Auburn in their 80-71 victory over Kentucky on Saturday for their 8th consecutive ATS cover.  But now the Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today off that Kentucky win as they travel to face one of the worst teams in the SEC in the Missouri Tigers.

Well, Missouri was one of the worst teams, but they are as improved as anyone in the conference over the last couple weeks.  Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall with a 92-86 upset home win over Alabama as 14-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Texas A&M as 5-point home dogs, a 78-53 win at Ole Miss as 7.5-point dogs and only a 10-point loss at Alabama as 18-point dogs.

Plays against any team (Auburn) - an explosive offensive team scoring 78 PPG or more against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 75 points or more in four straight games are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as home underdogs.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Don't be surprised to see Auburn fall flat on its face tonight and lose this game outright.  Bet Missouri Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +12.5

Southern Illinois is much better than its 10-9 record would indicate and should not be catching 12.5 points against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers tonight.  In fact, all nine of their losses have come by 12 points or fewer this season.  All four of their conference losses have come by 8 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less to Missouri State, Northern Iowa and Drake, three of the top teams in the conference.

Loyola-Chicago has been grossly overvalued of late.  They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valpo as a 15.5-point home favorite.  They needed a 15-point comeback to win at Indiana State, and they lost outright as an 8-point home favorite to Missouri State.  Their lone blowout win during this stretch came against lowly Evansville, which is getting blown out by everyone.

The Ramblers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games.  The Salukis are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Roll with Southern Illinois Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +14.5

The Baylor Bears have been overvalued to open Big 12 play this year due to winning the title last year and coming into conference play unbeaten.  They have gone 5-2 SU but 3-4 ATS with all five of their wins coming by 14 points or less.  They even lost outright to Texas Tech as an 11.5-point home favorite and outright to Oklahoma State as a 14-point home favorite.

Conversely, Kansas State has been grossly undervalued in conference play.  The Wildcats are just 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS.  Amazingly, all five of their losses have come by 13 points or less with four of those losses by 3 points or fewer.  They have been extremely competitive in conference play.  They upset Texas Tech by 11, went on the road and upset Texas as 10.5-point dogs and nearly upset Kansas in a 3-point loss as 6-point home dogs.  They only lost by 2 at Oklahoma as 7.5-point dogs and by 3 at West Virginia as 9-point dogs.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Baylor is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +6

The Missouri State Bears are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 79-69 upset win at Loyola-Chicago as 8-point underdogs to hand the Ramblers their first conference loss of the season.  They are their biggest competition to win the Missouri Valley.

Indiana State is no pushover.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sycamores, who have lost four straight coming in all by 8 points or less.  Three of those came to three of the top teams in the conference in Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois.  They will be competitive with the Bears tonight as well.

The underdog is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The Sycamores are 6-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS at home this season.  Take Indiana State Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on North Carolina -4

The North Carolina Tar Heels will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following two straight blowout road losses at Miami and at Wake Forest.  Look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight as they return home where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, the Tar Heels are 9-0 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.9 points per game.  They have opened ACC play by crushing Virginia by 16 and Georgia Tech by 23 at home.  Look for them to easily cover this 4-point spread against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are struggling right now.  They have gone just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss at Boston College.  The Hokies are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five true road games with their only win coming by 3 at lowly NC State.

North Carolina is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Virginia Tech with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  The Hokies are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games when playing their 3rd game in 7 days.  The Tar Heels are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis -9

I love the spot for Saint Louis today. The Billikens will be out for revenge from an 85-91 upset road loss at UMass on Thursday. Now they get to host the Minutemen here just three days later.

Saint Louis is 8-3 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 17.3 points per game. Their three losses came to Auburn by 4, Belmont by 5 and UAB by 5. Those are three great teams.

UMass is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS in true road games this season with multiple losses by double-digits. I think the Billikens get them by double-digits today given the revenge spot.

Saint Louis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games after losing two of its last three games coming in. The Minutemen are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Billikens are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with Saint Louis Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +13

The Northwestern Wildcats have been competitive despite going just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall. All five losses came by 8 points or fewer. In fact, they haven't a single game by more than 8 points all season.

They won't start today as they keep this game against Purdue competitive for 40 minutes. The Boilermakers have been consistently overvalued since Big Ten play started. They are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Northwestern has played Purdue tough in two straight meetings the last two seasons. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 8-point road dogs last year and by 3 as 5.5-point home dogs two years ago. Purdue could be without its best player in Jaden Ivey (16.7 PPG), who is questionable with a hip injury. Take Northwestern Sunday.

15* UNC/Wake Forest ACC ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest -1.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Steve Forbes has this program on the rise as the Demon Deacons are 15-4 SU & 11-8 ATS this season.

Wake Forest has been particularly tough to tame at home, going 10-1 SU while outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game. Their lone home loss came to Duke. They are coming off two straight impressive road wins at Virginia and Georgia Tech.

North Carolina has been dominant at home as well, but terrible on the road. The Tar Heels are 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in all games played away from home with their three wins coming against Charleston, Georgia Tech and Boston College. They lost badly to Purdue, Tennessee and Kentucky on neutrals. They also were upset at Notre Dame and at Miami by 28 last time out.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS in their last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game. North Carolina is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 road games. Roll with Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +19.5

East Carolina is one of the most underrated teams in the American Athletic Conference this season. The Pirates are 11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS with all six losses coming by 10 points or less.

Now the Pirates are catching a whopping 19.5 points to Houston and should stay within this number with ease. The Cougars are overrated due to an eight-game winning streak against very weak competition. And note that seven of those eight wins came by 19 points or less with the lone exception being a non-conference home game against Texas State.

Lafayette only lost by 15 at Houston, Temple only lost by 5, South Florida lost by 17, Wichita State lost by 10, Tulsa lost by 2 and South Florida lost by 19 in the rematch. That's a very soft schedule, and you could argue that East Carolina is the best team Houston has faced since losing to Alabama prior to this eight-game winning streak.

Much worse ECU teams have given Houston problems the last two seasons. ECU won outright 82-73 as a 16.5-point home dog last season and only lost by 10 as a 13-point dog in 2020. The Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Take East Carolina Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their lone loss coming at Florida State by a final of 64-65.

Now the Hurricanes will be out for revenge from that defeat. They are coming off one of their best performances of the season, an 85-57 home win over North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs. They also recently beat Duke outright as 15-point road underdogs.

Florida State is 2-3 SU in true road games this season with narrow wins over Syracuse by 5 and NC State by 2, and blowout losses at Florida by 16, at Purdue by 28 and at Wake Forest by 22. This is a huge letdown spot for the Seminoles off an upset win over Duke at home and having already beaten Miami once this season.

Florida State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in its previous game. Miami is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. Bet Miami Saturday.

20* Kentucky/Auburn SEC No-Brainer on Auburn -3.5

The Auburn Tigers may be the best team in the country. They are 17-1 SU & 14-4 ATS this season with their only loss coming to UConn in double-overtime. They have won and covered seven straight games coming into this matchup with Kentucky.

It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at Auburn with the Wildcats coming to town today. The Tigers are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 20 points per game.

Kentucky has been great at home as well but mediocre on the road. The Wildcats are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season with losses to Notre Dame and LSU and their two wins coming against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M.

Auburn has won its last two home meetings with Kentucky as short favorites by 7 and 9 points. They are a short favorite again here and this may be the best team in Auburn history. Kentucky is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games following three consecutive conference games. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The Tigers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games. Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Roll with Auburn Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +6

The Memphis Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-7 SU & 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  That includes upset losses to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, Ole Miss as a 10-point favorite, Tulane as a 6-point favorite, UCF as a 1-point favorite and ECU as a 7-point favorite.

A big reason for the Tigers' struggles is they are short-handed right now with seven players listed as questionable, doubtful or out on the injury report.  They should not be 6-point favorites over SMU, which is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the American Athletic Conference right now.

Recent head-to-head history also shows there's value with SMU +6 tonight.  In fact, each of the last four meetings and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or less.  The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  Bet SMU Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +22

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Bulldogs.  They have lost six straight while going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But one of their best performances was a 77-92 loss at Kentucky as similar 22.5-point dogs, and I fully expect them to cover this 22-point spread at Auburn.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers.  They have gone 13-0 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall with six straight covers.  That includes big wins over LSU, Florida and Alabama during this stretch.  Now the Tigers have a huge game on deck against Kentucky on Saturday and will be looking ahead.  They won't be giving Georgia their full attention, making it very difficult to cover this 22-point spread as a result.

Georgia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog.  That includes an outright win as a 9-point dog at Auburn last season.  Bet Georgia Wednesday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Creighton -3.5

The Creighton Blue Jays are highly motivated for a victory after two straight road losses against arguably the two best teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier.  They have played three straight on the road while also upsetting Marquette.  

The Bluejays were last seen at home throttling Villanova 79-59 on December 17th, so they haven't played at home in over a month.  It's safe to say they will be excited to be back home in front of their fans and one of the best home-court advantages in the country.

St. John's is 0-4 in all games played away from home this season compared to 10-1 at home.  Creighton is 7-1 SU in its last eight home meetings with the Red Storm and only has to cover a short 3.5-point spread here.  

The Red Storm are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  St. John's is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take Creighton Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 140.5

Two great defensive teams that play at slow paces square off Tuesday night in Big Ten action.  This should be yet another defensive battle between Wisconsin and Northwestern, and the recent head-to-head history tells the story as to why there is value with the UNDER tonight.

Indeed, each of the last 16 meetings between Northwestern and Wisconsin have seen 139 or fewer combined points.  That makes for a 16-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 140.5-point total.  Enough said.  Roll with the UNDER In this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +8.5

What more does Iowa State have to do to get some respect from oddsmakers?  Until they do, we'll keep cashing tickets on them.  They are 14-3 this season with the three losses coming to Baylor by 5 as 7.5-point dogs, Kansas by 1 as 13-point road dogs and Oklahoma as 6-point road dogs after blowing a 10-point lead in the second half.

The losses are impressive, and the upset wins keep stacking up.  They upset Xavier as 9-point dogs, Memphis as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton as 5.5-point dogs, Iowa as 5-point dogs and Texas as 2.5-point dogs.  They also beat Texas Tech 51-47 in the first meeting as 5-point home favorites, and now the oddsmakers have made a 13.5-point adjustment by making the Red Raiders an 8.5-point home favorite.

Texas Tech is getting a lot of respect in the betting markets due to recent upset wins over Kansas as 7-point dogs and Baylor as 11.5-point dogs.  But they fell flat on their faces last time in in a 51-62 road loss at Kansas State as 4.5-point favorites, handing the Wildcats their first Big 12 win of the season.  They should maybe be favored in the rematch with the Cyclones at home, but they should not be this big of favorites.

The Cyclones are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Texas Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after covering four or five of its last six games ATS.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -2

Davidson has won 13 straight games coming into this showdown with VCU.  But I think VCU is favored for good reason tonight and that streak comes to an end in what will be Davidson's stiffest challenge during this winning streak.

Davidson has played just four true road games during this streak with wins against overmatched competition in Charlotte, Northeastern, St. Joseph's and Richmond.  The win over Richmond was decent and came by only 3 points, but VCU is better than that overrated Richmond squad.

The Rams are 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They upset Syracuse, only lost to Baylor by 8 as 13.5-point dogs, only lost to UConn by 7 as 8-point dogs and lost at St. Bonaventure.  So all of their losses have come on the road during this stretch against very good teams in Baylor, UConn & St. Bonaventure.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  VCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take VCU Tuesday.

20* Purdue/Illinois Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois ML -111

Illinois is 11-1 in its last 12 games with its only loss coming to Arizona, which may be the best team in the country.  I look for the Fighting Illini to continue rolling this afternoon at home against the Purdue Boilermakers on MLK Day.

While the Fighting Illini have been dominant in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, the Boilermakers have been exposed by going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have played only two true road games during this stretch and lost outright at Rutgers as 13.5-point favorites and only beat Penn State by 7 as 9.5-point favorites.  They were also upset at home by Wisconsin as 12.5-point favorites.

Brad Underwood has Matt Painter's number.  The Fighting Illini are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 26 as 1.5-point home favorites, by 17 as 6-point road underdogs and by 8 as 8-point home favorites.  We are getting the Fighting Illini cheap today as just a PK at home.

The Boilermakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.  The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Illinois is 9-0 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the last two seasons.  Bet Illinois Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +9.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been grossly undervalued in Big Ten play of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming by 7 to Purdue as 9.5-point underdogs.  They upset Indiana as 5-point home dogs, upset Northwestern as 8-point road dogs and crushed Rutgers by 17 as 2-point home favorites.

Now I love the spot for the Nittany Lions as they won't be having a letdown.  Instead, they will be out for revenge from a 64-76 home loss to Ohio State as 5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are catching 9.5 points in the rematch.  Ohio State isn't going to shoot as well as it did in the first meeting, making 50.9% overall and 12-of-27 (44.4%) from 3-point range.

The Buckeyes aren't playing well enough to justify being 9.5-point favorites here.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They needed OT to beat Nebraska as a 9.5-point road favorite, got crushed by 16 at Indiana, only won by 8 at home over Northwestern as 7.5-point favorites and lost by 10 at Wisconsin as 3.5-point dogs.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking to much here.

Penn State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  The Nittany Lions are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +16.5

UCLA has not been sharp since returning from a COVID pause.  They were off from December 11th until January 6th.  They have returned and gone 0-3 ATS, winning by 18 over Long Beach State as a 26-point favorite and winning by 8 at California as an 8.5-point favorite.

Then on Thursday the Bruins lost outright as 9.5-point home favorites to Oregon.  The Bruins are playing without any home fans right now, so they have almost zero home-court advantage.  That isn't being factored into their lines enough.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Oregon State after a disastrous start to the season after making the Elite 8 last year.  The Beavers have been consistently undervalued in recent weeks, going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah by 12 as 4.5-point home dogs, only lost by 2 to Oregon as 4.5-point home dogs and only lost by 10 at USC as 14.5-point road dogs.  If they can hang with those teams, they can certainly hang with UCLA tonight.

Each of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 5 points or less.  In fact, UCLA hasn't beaten Oregon State by more than 7 points in any of the last seven meetings.  The Beavers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +11

Houston should not be a double-digit favorite at Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  They consistently exceed expectations at home, and I fully expect them to give the Cougars a run for their money tonight.

Tulsa comes in highly motivated for a victory as it is coming off three straight losses to very good SMU, Memphis and Temple teams all by 5 points or less.  In fact, seven of their eight losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer, so they are undervalued just based on their record.

Houston is overvalued after winning six straight coming in, but three of those wins came by 11 points or fewer and the others were against overmatched Lafayette, Texas State and South Florida teams.  Tulsa is 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Houston.  That includes outright upsets as 9.5-point dogs and 6-point dogs in their last two home meetings.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as home underdogs.  Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4 or more boards per game than their opponents.   Take Tulsa Saturday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana State +9.5

Loyola-Chicago is grossly overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That includes a 12-point home win over Indiana State as 18-point favorites.  Now the Sycamores will be out for revenge, and asking the Ramblers to go on the road and beat them by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

Loyola-Chicago has had some very good luck in close games recently.  They beat San Francisco by 5, needed OT to beat Bradley as a 13-point home favorite and needed OT to beat Valparaiso as a 15.5-point home favorite in their last three games coming in.  Their luck runs out today, and at the very least the Sycamores cover.

I have been very impressed with Indiana State in MVC play this season.  They played Loyola-Chicago tough in that first meeting, upset Bradley 76-71 as 3.5-point home underdogs and took Northern Iowa to OT as 12-point road underdogs.  Those are three of the best teams in MVC this season and arguably the two best in UNI and Loyola, so they have proven they belong.

Indiana State is 6-0 at home this season and winning by 22.7 points per game.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last three seasons.  Indiana State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall, including 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on TCU ML +107

TCU is 11-2 this season including 6-1 at home with its only loss to Baylor.  The wrong team is favored in this game as the Horned Frogs host Oklahoma today.  It's a Sooners team that is 1-2 SU in true road games with its lone win coming by 3 points and both losses by double-digits.

Oklahoma is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Sooners are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games as road favorites.  Oklahoma is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games as a favorite overall.  The Horned Frogs are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Roll with TCU on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Louisville/Pittsburgh ACC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have been grossly undervalued for over a month.  They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight games decided by 4 points or fewer.  So that fact alone says there's value with the Panthers catching 5 points at home today.

I backed Pittsburgh as a double-digit dog at Louisville in their 72-75 loss on January 5th.  Now I'm back on them again in this great revenge spot here just 10 days later and at home this time around.  Louisville is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  

They lost outright to DePaul as 7.5-point home favorites, outright to Western Kentucky by 10 as favorites, and by 16 as 6-point home favorites to NC State last time out among some of their worst performances.  It really shows how bad this team really is, and each of their last three wins came by 4 points or less.

The Cardinals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Take Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have been grossly underrated all season.  And they are getting disrespected again here as home underdogs to the Texas Longhorns.  This is a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cyclones opened 12-0 with several outright upsets as underdogs.  They have opened 1-3 SU in Big 12 play but are 2-2 ATS.  They only lost by 5 to Baylor as 7.5-point dogs and by 1 at Kansas as 13-point dogs, which are arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 and shows what they are capable of.   They also beat Texas Tech at home.  Now they are highly motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in conference.

Texas is 3-1 in conference but has played a much softer schedule.  Their only road win came at Kansas State and the Wildcats were missing a ton of players due to COVID.  They are also one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  The Longhorns lost by 13 at Oklahoma State, another team that isn't very good.  And they beat short-handed West Virginia and Oklahoma at home.

Texas is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. teams that average 9 or more steals per game.  Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +8

I love the spot for the Northwestern Wildcats today.  They will be out for revenge from a 67-73 home loss to Michigan State on January 2nd.  Now they get to face the Spartans less than two weeks later and are catching 8 points this time around after catching only 3 points at home.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost four straight coming in but all four losses have come by 8 points or fewer.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spartans, who have won nine straight coming in.

But the Spartans are starting to get a little lazy and failing to meeting expectations.  They are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their only cover coming in that 6-point win at Northwestern as 3-point favorites.  They only beat High Point by 13 as 22.5-point home favorites, Nebraska by 12 as 14.5-point home favorites and Minnesota by 2 as 11.5-point home favorites.

The Spartans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

15* Michigan/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines.  They are off to a disappointing 7-6 start this season and coming off upset road losses to both UCF and Rutgers.  But they have had the last nine days off to get healthy, rested and ready to take on Illinois tonight.  

I fully expect a big effort from the Wolverines, which should be enough to cover this inflated 10-point spread.  Michigan has been favored in all 13 games this season, and now they are not only an underdog for the first time, but a double-digit underdog at that.  This fact alone shows you there's value with Michigan and we are getting them at their best price of the season.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois.  The Fighting Illini have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss to Arizona.  But they have feasted on a weak schedule for the most part and five of the 10 wins have come by 10 points or fewer.  That includes a 10-point win at Nebraska as 12.5-point favorites last time out.  And they needed a late surge to beat Maryland by 12 in their previous game at home.

Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Wolverines have the size inside to match up with Kofi Cockburn.  The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Michigan Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +8.5

The Rice Owls are a veteran team that returned all five starters this season and has impressive me.  The Owls are 9-5 this season and coming off a win over the favorite to win Conference USA in UAB outright as 10.5-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to hang with Western Kentucky tonight.

Western Kentucky was a great team the last few years but lost a lot of talent from those teams.  They are just 9-6 this season, but they continue to get a lot of respect because they have been a good basketball program.  They should not be 8.5-point home favorites against Rice tonight.

Rice is +5.4 points per game this season based on what their opponents normally average on offense and give up on defense.  Western Kentucky is +6.6 points per game based on the same criteria.  So the Hilltoppers would be a 1-point favorite on a neutral, and they don't have a 7.5-point home-court advantage.  There's value on the Owls tonight.

Three of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, and those were much better WKU teams and much worse Rice teams than these 2021-22 versions.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hilltoppers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Western Kentucky is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Roll with Rice Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -3

North Texas is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming to UAB, a team it is vying for a Conference USA title win.  That includes upset wins over Drake as 5-point dogs and Wichita State as 4-point dogs on the highway.

Marshall has been overrated all season, going 7-8 SU & 3-10 ATS in lined games.  The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with five straight losses by double-digits.  That includes home losses to Northern Iowa by 15 as 2.5-point favorites and Florida Atlantic by 13 as 5-point favorites.

The numbers show North Texas is by far the superior team and should be a bigger favorite here.  North Texas is +12 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense this season.  Marshall is only +0.4 points per game based on the same criteria, so North Texas is 12 points better on a neutral.  The Mean Green have played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while the Thundering Herd have played the 111th.

North Texas is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  The Mean Green are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  The Thundering Herd are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Mean Green.  Take North Texas Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma State +7.5

This is the perfect spot to fade the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  They are coming off two straight shocking upsets of the two favorites to win the Big 12 in Kansas and Baylor.  They even handed the Bears their first loss of the season on Tuesday.

Now the Red Raiders are feeling fat and happy and I expect them to fall flat on their faces tonight.  This is a great time to 'sell high' on them here, and also a great time to 'buy low' on the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have lost three of their last four to three of the best teams in the country in Houston, Kansas and West Virginia.  They also upset Texas 64-51 as 3-point dogs for their lone win during this stretch of four straight games as underdogs.

Oklahoma State has had Texas Tech's number.  The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with three outright upsets as underdogs.  That includes an 82-77 win as 8-point road dogs at Texas Tech last season.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a conference loss.  Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after covering four or five of their last six ATS.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after winning four of its last five games.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State +12.5

The Drake Bulldogs were one of the best covering teams in the country over the last few seasons.  But the odds have clearly caught up with them this season as they are 11-5 SU but just 3-10 ATS in their 13 lined games.  And they continue to be overvalued in conference play, including here tonight against Illinois State.

Drake is 0-3 ATS in conference play this season beating Valpo by 7 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 5 at Missouri State as 4-point dogs and only beating Evansville by 1 as double-digit road favorites.  Now they are overvalued once again as 12.5-point home favorites against Illinois State.

Illinois State is playing well right now going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games.  The Redbirds beat Ball State by 21 as 5.5-point home favorites and UTSA by 17 as 9-point home favorites.  Then they went on the road at Wisconsin and only lost by 4 as 17-point underdogs before losing by 5 at Valpo in OT as 5.5-point dogs.  That effort against Wisconsin says all you need to know about their potential.

The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Illinois State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 0-8 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  Bet Illinois State Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joseph's +9.5

St. Joseph's is battle-tested in its last four games.  The Hawks are 3-1 ATS during that stretch.  They won 68-49 as 1.5-point home dogs to Temple, only lost 73-77 at Bradley as 4.5-point dogs and crushed Richmond 83-56 as 11.5-point road dogs in one of the most impressive performances of any team all season.

Predictably, the Hawks laid an egg in their next game and lost 73-88 as 4.5-point home dogs to Davidson.  Well, Davidson might be the best team in the Atlantic 10 this season.  Now the Hawks have had a full week to get ready for Rhode Island.

This is a Rhode Island team that lost by 14 at Providence, only beat Sacred Heart by 10 at home, beat a bad Wisconsin-Milwaukee team on the road, only beat American International 70-55 at home and lost at Davidson in its last five games.  They have had the much easier schedule of late, and they should not be laying nearly double-digits against St. Joe's tonight.

St. Joseph's is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 road games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Rhode Island is 24-48 ATS in its last 72 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games coming in.  The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with St. Joseph's Wednesday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF ML +105

I love the spot for UCF tonight.  They were feeling fat and happy off their 85-71 upset home win of Michigan and have proceeded to lose their last two games to SMU and Temple.  Now they have had a fully week to steam over those losses and get ready for Memphis tonight.  Look for one of their best efforts of the season similar to that effort against Michigan tonight.

It will be good enough to win and cover against a Memphis squad that is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to Penny Hardaway and his recruiting.  Memphis is just 4-5 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes upset losses to Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites, Georgia as 11.5-point favorites, Ole Miss as 1.5-point favorites, Murray State as 10-point favorites and Tulane as 6-point favorites.

UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover four or five of its last six against the spread.  Memphis is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take UCF on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -1

I love the spot for Xavier tonight.  This will be their 2nd meeting with Villanova in their last three games.  They lost 58-71 at Villanova, and now they will be out for revenge at home this time around.  I fully expect them to get their revenge with a win and cover.

Xavier has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall and is legitimately one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 21.6 points per game.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are 11-4 this season with all four losses coming on the road.  That includes losses at Baylor by 21 and at Creighton by 20.

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.  The Musketeers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The favorite is 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Florida State -6.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes.  They have won nine straight coming in and with almost all those wins at home.  But they did go on the road and beat Duke outright as a 15-point favorite on Saturday for their signature victory.  Now this is an obvious letdown spot for the Hurricanes at Florida State tonight.

Florida State got back on track with a 79-70 home win over Louisville last time out.  They are bitter rivals with Miami and would love to end their nine-game winning streak.  I think they do so in blowout fashion as they simply own the Hurricanes.

Indeed, the Seminoles have won seven straight meetings with the Hurricanes and are 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 17 points or more.  The Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Hurricanes with all five wins coming by 6 points or more.

Florida State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 ACC home games.  The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Seven of Miami's last nine wins have come by single-digits with the only exceptions being home wins over Lipscomb and Stetson in which they failed to cover the spread.  Their luck runs out tonight in this obvious letdown spot.  Take Florida State Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +10.5

Pittsburgh has been grossly undervalued for weeks after a slow start to the season.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their two non-covers coming by a combined 4 points.  Their seven covers have come by a combined 51 points.

Amazingly, Pitt has played in nine straight games decided by single-digits, including eight of those by 4 points or less.  That includes games against Minnesota, Virginia, St. John's, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boston College.  So they have been competitive against some great competition and should not be catching double-digits against Syracuse tonight.

Syracuse is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall and has lost five of its last seven with its only wins coming at home against Brown and Cornell.  Every time they have faced a decent team recently they have lost.  They should not be laying double-digits as they sit at just 7-8 on the season and this is one of the worst Syracuse teams in recent memory.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog over the last two seasons.  Syracuse is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  Bet Pittsburgh Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Rutgers after going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  All five wins came at home.  Rutgers is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season and losing by 13.5 points per game on average.  That includes outright losses to DePaul and UMass as favorites.

Penn State has covered three straight with upset wins over Indiana at home and Northwestern on the road.  Their only loss came by 7 as 9.5-point home dogs to Purdue, which is one of the best teams in the country.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Roll with Penn State Tuesday.

20* Cincinnati/Memphis ABC No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

The Memphis Tigers have nine players either out or questionable on their injury report with all of them legitimate injuries instead of COVID.  That includes Duren (11.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Bates (10.8 PPG), Nolley II (9.2 PPG) and Lomax (5.9 PPG) among others.

The Tigers have already been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season.  I faded them with success last time out with Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane only lost 64-67 as 13-point road underdogs.  And I'm fading them again today with the Cincinnati Bearcats catching too many points at Memphis.

The Bearcats are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  That includes a 77-60 win over SMU as 2.5-point home favorites last time out in one of their most complete games of the season.  Unlike Memphis, they are as healthy as they have been all season entering AAC play here and ready to make some noise in the conference.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 6 points or less.  In fact, Memphis has only beaten Cincinnati by more than 6 points once in the last 12 meetings, making for an 11-1 system backing the Bearcats pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Bet Cincinnati Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Georgia Tech +1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 SU in their last seven games overall.  But they have been much more competitive of late now that they have gotten several key players back from injury.  They are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games beating Georgia State by 10, losing at Louisville by 3 and losing at Duke by 12 as 18.5-point dogs.

I think this is a great spot to back the Yellow Jackets as they return home and are highly motivated for a victory.  It's also a great time to 'sell high' on Notre Dame, which has won four straight coming in against mostly weak competition.  The exception was the upset 78-73 home win over North Carolina on Wednesday, which makes the Fighting Irish primed for a letdown.

Notre Dame is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games this season with its only win coming at lowly Pittsburgh by a single point.  They lost by double-digits at Illinois and at Boston College.  The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game.  The Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Tennessee/LSU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on LSU -1.5

The LSU Tigers are 13-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to the Auburn Tigers, who are one of the best teams in the country.  Not only are the Tigers winning, they are dominating as they are outscoring opponents by 21.2 points per game on the season.

The Tigers have been at their best at home where the are 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS while winning by a whopping 29.6 points per game.  That includes a 65-60 home win over Kentucky last time out.  If they can beat Kentucky, they can definitely take down Tennessee.

The Vols have some shaky performances lately with a loss to Texas Tech and a loss to Alabama as well as needing overtime to beat Ole Miss as 17-point home favorites last time out.  I think I've seen a lot more holes in Tennessee's game than LSU, which is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency.  The Vols struggle to score at times which really showed in the Texas Tech and Ole Miss games.

LSU is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Tennessee with all three wins coming outright as underdogs, including two by double-digits.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a sleeper to win the Missouri Valley Conference.  The Panthers opened 4-7 this season against a brutal schedule and missing some key players early.  But now they are full strength and playing up to their potential with this veteran team that returned all five starters.

Indeed, the Panthers have opened 2-1 in MVC play with their only loss coming 69-71 at Bradley back on December 1st.  They have won both of their MVC games in blowout fashion in January by beating Evansville 83-61 and Valparaiso 92-65.  Now they are ready to take down Missouri State.

The Bears have opened conference season 2-1 as well with a bad 74-79 loss at Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites.  They have since beaten 61-56 and Bradley 71-69 with a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  I think this is a letdown spot for them off that Bradley win at the buzzer.

The Panthers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 meetings with the Bears.  The road team is 32-15-1 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  Northern Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  Dana Ford is 1-9 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game as the coach of Missouri State.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +14

The Bradley Braves are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The three losses all came by 5 points or less at Toledo by 2, at Indiana State by 5 and at home against Missouri State by 2.  This team is playing too well right now to be catching 14 points from Loyola-Chicago.

This is a bad spot for the Ramblers.  They are coming off a 79-74 win over San Francisco on a neutral on Thursday.  So they have had just one day to get ready for Bradley and there is travel involved.  The tough spot will make it very difficult for them to get margin on the Braves today as they are a tired team right now.

Each of the last nine meetings in this series were decided by 13 points or fewer.  That makes for a perfect 9-0 system backing the Braves pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7.5

Nebraska has impressed me in its last two games taking Ohio State to overtime as 9.5-point underdogs and covering in a 12-point loss at Michigan State as 14.5-point dogs.  The Huskers have opened 0-4 in Big Ten play against a brutal schedule, but now they have a great chance to get their first conference win of the season, and at the very least stay inside this inflated number.

This is a terrible spot for Rutgers.  They are coming off a historic win over Michigan 75-67 at home last time out as 3.5-point underdogs.  But that is a down Michigan team this year.  And this is clearly a letdown spot for them now with lowly Nebraska coming to town.

Nebraska has been a thorn in Rutgers' side in recent meetings.  They only lost 72-75 in their last trip to Rutgers as 13.5-point dogs.  And they won outright 72-51 as 8.5-point home dogs in their most recent meeting.  This Nebraska team is better than those versions, and this Rutgers team is down a few notches this year.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California +5.5

The California Golden Bears are one of the most underrated teams in the country as Mark Fox is doing a heck of a job with this team.  They have gone 9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS this season, including 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS at home.  They just beat Arizona State by 24 at home last time out, and they are primed to hand USC its first loss of the season.

The Trojans are overvalued due to their 12-0 start this season.  They have only played three true road games and two were wins by less than this margin with a 5-point win at Temple and a 2-point win at Washington State.  They also beat lowly Florida Gulf Coast by 17.  This will be their toughest road test of the season.

Making matters worse for the Trojans is that they have been off for three weeks with their last game on December 18th due to COVID.  There will be a rust factor with them.  There is no rust factor for the Golden Bears, who just played ASU on January 2nd and have won five straight coming in.

USC is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following nine or more consecutive wins.  They have failed to cover three of their last four with shaky home wins over Eastern Kentucky, Long Beach State and UC-Irvine all by 12 points or less.  California is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Golden Bears are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games.  Take California Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +27

I love the spot for Long Beach State tonight.  They Beach already played at UCLA once this season back on November 15th and lost 79-100 as 26-point underdogs.  Now they are 27-point dogs in the rematch.

UCLA probably thinks it can just show up and win tonight.  And there will be a rust factor for the Bruins, who have been off since December 11th so nearly a full month.  They cannot be trusted to cover this inflated 27-point spread given the spot and the fact that these teams already played once to a 21-point game.

Long Beach State knocked the dust off yesterday with a 90-64 win over Westcliff.  That came after their last game was on December 12th and it was a great showing, only losing 62-73 at USC as 24-point dogs.  That's a 12-0 USC team right now.

Long Beach State is 9-1 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons, including 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss.  The Beach are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.  The Beach are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four losses coming by 4, 7, 11 and 21 points.  Roll with Long Beach State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joseph's +4.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Davidson Wildcats.  They have gone 9-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes an upset win over Alabama as 9.5-point dogs on a neutral in their last lined game.  This is now a huge letdown spot for the Wildcats, and you're paying a premium to back them at this point.

St. Joseph's has quietly put together a nice run itself in going 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Hawks have an upset win over Georgetown as well as an extremely impressive 83-56 win at Richmond as 11.5-point underdogs last time out.  They are more than capable of not only covering tonight, but upsetting Davidson.

St. Joseph's is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Davidson.  The Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. excellent 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better.  St. Joseph's is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a game where it had two or fewer steals.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  St. Joseph's is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take St. Joseph's Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +12.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  All seven games were decided by 9 points or fewer and that includes games against quality competitive in Virginia, St. John's and Notre Dame as all three of those games were decided by 1 or 2 points.

Louisville has no business being a 12.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh tonight.  The Cardinals aren't blowing anyone out other than overmatched non-conference opponents, and even then they only beat Southern by 12 and lost outright to Furman as a 9-point favorite.  Their three ACC wins have all come by 5 points or fewer.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games off a home loss.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after committing eight or fewer turnovers last game.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games following a road win.  The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14

Memphis is grossly overvalued this season and continues to be here as 14-point favorites over Tulsa.  The Tigers are just 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season while battling COVID issues currently.  They are getting too much respect after their blowout win at Wichita State last time out.

The Tigers had gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their previous six games.  They lost by 19 to Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Georgia as an 11.5-point favorite, lost outright to Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, lost outright to Murray State as a 10-point favorite and lost outright to Tulane as a 6-point favorite.  How can this team be trusted to lay 14 points given those results?

Tulsa is 6-6 this season but all six losses came by 14 points or less, including five by 7 points or fewer.  And the Golden Hurricane simply have Memphis' number.  Tulsa is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings winning outright as underdogs four times.  Tulsa hasn't lost any of its last eight meetings with Memphis by more than 9 points, making for an 8-0 system backing the Golden Hurricane pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Take Tulsa Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +18.5

Georgia Tech was hampered all season by illness and injury.  But they are finally fully healthy for the first time and it's starting to show.  After beating Georgia State 72-62 as 5-point favorites on a neutral, they gave Louisville a run for its money in a 64-67 loss as 3-point dogs.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets as they are a much better team than their 6-6 record would suggest, they just haven't been healthy.  Now they are healthy and ready to give Duke a run for its money tonight.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Devils after going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall against a soft schedule.

Few teams have played Duke as tough as Georgia Tech in recent seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Blue Devils.  They haven't lost any of their last five meetings with the Blue Devils by more than 13 points.  In fact, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 17 points or fewer.

The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Josh Pastner is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points as the coach of Georgia Tech.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest ML -115

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 11-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road to LSU, Louisville and Miami.  They are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS at home while outscoring opponents by 19.8 points per game.

Florida State is clearly down this season at 7-4.  They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall as they have consistently been overvalued.  They lost by 28 at Purdue, were upset as 6.5-point home favorites by Syracuse and were upset as 6.5-point favorites against South Carolina on a neutral.  They also only beat Boston by 1 as 17.5-point home favorites during this stretch.

Florida State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.  They have played three true road games this season, losing by 16 at Florida, by 28 at Purdue and only beating a bad NC State team by 2 as 2.5-point favorites.  Roll with Wake Forest Tuesday.

20* Kentucky/LSU ESPN No-Brainer on LSU -2

The LSU Tigers opened 12-0 before finally suffering their first defeat on the road at Auburn in their SEC opener.  Look for them to bounce back tonight at home where they have been dominant all season.

Indeed, the Tigers are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 32.7 points per game.  They face a Kentucky team that has only played one true road game this season, losing 62-66 at Notre Dame as 4.5-point favorites.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Kentucky) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points in their last five games against an opponent that went under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Towson -2.5

Towson is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers have gone 9-4 SU & 11-2 ATS in their 13 games this season.  Even their four losses were impressive as they lost to Monmouth by 8, Pittsburgh by 4, San Francisco by 10 and Ohio State by 11 while covering the spread in three of those against four quality teams.

Drexel is 5-5 this season with losses to Syracuse by 15, Tulane, Jacksonville State, Princeton and Abilene Christian by 17.  The five wins all came against suspect competition in Neumann, St. Joe's, Charlotte, Farleigh Dickinson and Coppin State.  Drexel has been off since December 14th due to COVID and will be rusty playing their first game in three weeks.

Towson is +8.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average on offense and allow on defense.  Drexel is +1.4 points per game based on the same factor, meaning Towson is 7.5 points better than Drexel on a neutral.  So we are getting the Tigers at a discount as only 2.5-point road favorites considering there won't be much of a home-court advantage for the Dragons tonight.

The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.  Towson is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  Towson is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after a win by 10 points or more.  Drexel is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games vs. good defensive teams that allows 42% shooting or lower.  Roll with Towson Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the best mid-majors in the country.  They are 8-4 this season with their four losses coming to Memphis, UAB, Belmont and Auburn with the latter three losses all coming by 5 points or less.  They also beat Boise State on the road and Boston College at home along with solid wins over Stephen F. Austin and Illinois State on a neutral.

Richmond is overvalued this season.  The Spiders have lost almost all of their step up games against Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State.  Five of their last six wins have come by single-digits.  They finally ran out of luck last time out, getting blasted 56-83 as 11.5-pint home favorites against St. Joseph's, failing to cover the spread by 38.5 points.

Saint Louis is +12 points per game based off what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, while Richmond is +9 points per game based on the same criteria.  That means Saint Louis is 3 points better on a neutral, so they aren't even factoring in the huge home-court advantage for the Billikens today.

Richmond is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Spiders are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where they made 28% of their shots or worse.  The Billikens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after having lost two of their last three games.  Saint Louis is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 home games.  Bet Saint Louis Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Toledo +2

The Toledo Rockets are probably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are 9-3 with all three losses coming on the road to quality competition in Michigan State, Richmond and Oakland.  They covered against the first two teams in their road losses.

The Rockets have pretty much been crushing everyone else.  They are +7.6 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense.  Kent State is only +0.5 points per game based on what their opponents average on offense and give up on defense, so the Rockets are 7 points better on a neutral by my numbers and getting 2 points here on the road.

Kent State is just 5-6 this season.  The Golden Flashes have losses to Towson State at home by 15 as 6.5-point favorites, Southern U at home as 14.5-point favorites and Central Michigan at home as 16-point favorites.  If they're losing to those three teams outright at home, they aren't beating Toledo.

The Rockets are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after going under the total in their previous game.  Toledo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Kent State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take Toledo Saturday.

20* Baylor/Iowa State Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8.5

The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite their 12-0 start this season.  They have upset Xavier by 12 as 9-point dogs, Memphis by 19 as 11.5-point dogs, Creighton by 6 as 5.5-point dogs, and Iowa by 20 as 5-point dogs.  They have proven themselves against quality competition.

Yet here they are catching 8.5 points at home to the Baylor Bears.  It's time to 'sell high' on Baylor, which won the national championship last year and is off to a 12-0 start of its own this year.  There won't be a better time to 'sell high' on them the rest of the season in my opinion than here in their Big 12 road opener against the Cyclones.

Baylor has only had to play one true road game this season.  That resulted in a 78-70 win at Oregon as 7.5-point favorites.  But that is a down Oregon team this season, and the Bears needed a late surge not only to cover, but to actually win the game straight up.  Iowa State is much better than Oregon this season and now catching more points than Oregon was.

Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of their games on the season.  A bad Cyclones team that went 2-22 last year gave Baylor a run for its money twice, losing by 11 as 15.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 24-point road dogs.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +15

Denver is much better than its 5-10 record would indicate.  Eight of the 10 losses have come by 14 points or more.  And I fully expect them to stay within 15 points or Oral Roberts as this is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Pioneers.

Denver is only getting outscored by 3.8 points per game on the season.  The Pioneers are actually only -1.5 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  Compare that to Oral Roberts and we have an easy play here on Denver.

Indeed, Oral Roberts is only +3.1 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  So the Golden Eagles are only +4.6 points per game better than Denver on a neutral based on my numbers.  So they shouldn't be 15-point home favorites here.

The Pioneers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Pioneers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after two straight games where they gave up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Oral Roberts is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Pioneers are 7-0 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  Roll with Denver Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on South Alabama -2

South Alabama is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Jaguars are 10-3 this season and 7-2 ATS in lined games.  They are +8.3 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.

UT-Arlington has been a huge disappointment this season at 4-7 SU & 3-6 ATS.  They are -2.9 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  So that means South Alabama would be 11.2 points per game better than UT-Arlington on a neutral.  

So we are getting tremendous value on the Jaguars as only 2-point road favorites here.  Kenpom has South Alabama roughly 7 points better on a neutral.  Close road losses to Alabama by 5 and Wichita State by 6 as 20.5 and 12.5-point dogs, respectively, shows what the Jaguars are capable of.  Arlington lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 9 to Oral Roberts, by 19 to Utah State and by 28 to North Texas.

Arlington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a home win.  The Jaguars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Mavericks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Arlington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a win.  Take South Alabama Thursday.

15* SDSU/NDSU Summit League ANNIHILATOR on South Dakota State -2

South Dakota State +8.4 points per game based on what their opponents normally average and allow on offense and defense.  North Dakota State is actually -0.6 points per game based on what their opponents normally allow on offense and defense.

That means I have South Dakota State 9 points better than North Dakota State on a neutral.  So getting them as only 2-point road favorites here against North Dakota State is a huge discount.  Kenpom also has the Jackrabbits nearly 9 points better on a neutral.

The Jackrabbits have also played the tougher schedule facing the 144th-ranked slate compared to North Dakota State and the 264th-ranked slate.  The Bison are getting too much respect for their 7-0 home record against Concordia-St. Paul, Tarleton State, Idaho, Northland, CS-Northridge, Indiana State and South Dakota.  This will be by far their stiffest home test of the season.

North Dakota State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring 85 points or more.  The Bison are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games vs. explosive offensive teams that average 84 or more points per game.  The Jackrabbits are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.  South Dakota State is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bison are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Roll with South Dakota State Thursday.

20* Michigan/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Michigan Wolverines after a shaky 7-4 start to the season against a brutal schedule.  They are better than they have shown thus far, and I look for them to handle their business in their final game before the new year.

UCF has struggled when stepping up in class.  They lost at home to Oklahoma and on the road to Auburn by 17.  This will be one of their toughest tests of the entire season, and it's basically in the pick 'em price range where Michigan just has to win to cover.

Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game.  UCF is 2-9 ATS in its last nine games vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The Wolverines are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites.  The Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Take Michigan Thursday.

15* Tennessee/Alabama ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  They have been overconfident since a 91-82 upset win as 9.5-point underdogs to Gonzaga.  They have since gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss to Davidson as 9.5-point favorites that will have them pissed off and playing with a chip on their shoulder in this SEC opener against Tennessee.

The overconfident, relaxed team here is going to be Tennessee.  That is because the Volunteers are coming off a 77-73 win over Arizona to hand the Wildcats their first loss of the season.  That was a massive victory, and it was at home while this will be just the 2nd true road game for the Volunteers this season.  This is a much stiffer test playing this pissed off Alabama squad.

The Crimson Tide are 6-0 SU at home this season and have a huge home-court advantage.  The Volunteers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Alabama is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Take Alabama Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler -2

The Butler Bulldogs are 7-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Texas A&M.  Three of those teams are three of the best teams in the country.  They also upset Oklahoma as an 11-point road underdog.

While Butler has been through the gauntlet in the non-conference that will have them prepared for the Big East schedule, DePaul is grossly overvalued due to a 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS start against a much softer schedule.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons in their Big East opener.

DePaul played eight straight home games to open the season against soft competition.  They played their last two on the road against more soft competition in Louisville and Illinois Chicago.  While the Louisville upset was solid, that is a down Louisville team that is nowhere near as good as they were expected to be coming into the season.  This is the toughest test of the season for the Blue Demons in my opinion.

Butler is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Michigan State.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Bulldogs are 14-1 SU in their last 15 meetings with DePaul with 12 wins by double-digits.  That includes 7-0 SU in their last seven home meetings.  Bet Butler Wednesday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Liberty +8.5

The Liberty Flames are one of the better mid major teams in the country.  They have played a brutal schedule this season and already have wins over the likes of Missouri, Northern Iowa and East Carolina.  They only lost to Stanford by 3 last round and will give BYU a run for its money in this game tonight.

BYU has not impressed me at all lately.  They were upset by Utah Valley State as 13-point favorites. Creighton as 4.5-point favorites and Vanderbilt as 5-point favorites.  They should not be 8.5-point favorites over this game Liberty team tonight.

The Flames are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  Liberty is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 December games.  The Flams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Roll with Liberty Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 162.5

Oral Roberts and South Dakota State are both fast-tempo teams and offensive juggernauts that play little defense.  The Jackrabbits average 87.4 points per game this season while the Golden Eagles put up 81.1 points per game.  Both shoot a ton of 3-pointers and shoot them well with South Dakota State at 44.3% as a team and Oral Roberts at 39.5% as a team.

This total has been set too low based on the three meetings between these teams last season, and both teams have almost all their players back.  They combined for 189, 175 and 178 points in their three meetings last season.  This total has been set at just 162.5, so there is plenty of value with the OVER.

South Dakota State is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after playing a home game.  The Jackrabbits are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games off a blowout home win by 20 points or more.  South Dakota State is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  The OVER is 45-15 in Golden Eagles last 60 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 20-6 in Jackrabbits last 26 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Murray State/Auburn SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Murray State +12.5

Murray State is 10-1 this season and getting zero respect from oddsmakers today as 12.5-point underdogs to Auburn.  We'll take advantage and back the Racers in a game I believe they take the Tigers to the wire.

Murray State already went on the road and upset Memphis as a 10-point underdog, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys.  And I look at this as a letdown spot for the Tigers, who are coming off a 74-70 win at Saint Louis and have their SEC opener against LSU on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for Auburn.

Matt McMahon is 9-1 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Murray State.  Bruce Pearl is 10-19 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game as the coach of Auburn.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +11

San Francisco is coming off five straight huge games against UAB, UNLV, Fresno State, Grand Canyon and Arizona State with four of them decided by 8 points or fewer.  This is an obvious letdown spot for them with Southern Illinois coming to town.  Not to mention, the Dons are tired playing their 3rd game in 5 days here.

Southern Illinois has impressed me this season with its 7-4 start with three of the four losses coming by 4 points or fewer.  The Salukis are that close to being a 10-1 team.  I love how they get after it defensively in holding opponents to 58.5 points per game and nearly 8 points per game below their season averages.

The Dons are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games overall as they have consistently been overrated.  The Dons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  San Francisco is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following a win.  The Salukis are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +6.5

Xavier continues to get no respect from oddsmakers as a 6.5-point underdog to Villanova tonight.  All the Musketeers have done is go 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with their only loss coming to a Top 10 Iowa State team.  

They have gotten healthy and with Freemantle back and are rolling right now going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes wins by 9 over Marquette, by 23 over Morehead State, by 20 over Cincinnati, by 46 over Ball State, by 6 at Oklahoma State as underdogs, by 33 over Central Michigan and by 1 over Virginia Tech as underdogs in those seven games.

Villanova clearly isn't as good as they were supposed to be coming into the season, but oddsmakers keep pricing them like they are.  They have lost to all the best teams they have faced in UCLA, Purdue, Baylor and Creighton.  The last two losses were very concerning as they lost 36-57 at Baylor and 59-79 at Creighton despite being a 7-point favorite.

Xavier is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The Musketeers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs.  Roll with Xavier Tuesday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -3.5

The Toledo Rockets are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to both Michigan State and Richmond in games taht they covered the spread in competitive losses.

Toledo should handle this Marshall team that remains overrated.  The Thundering Herd are 3-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their three wins during this stretch came against Duquesne (by 1), Eastern Kentucky and Bluefield College.  They lost by 10 to Ohio, but 15 to Northern Iowa and also lost to another MAC team in Akron.  Toledo is better than both Ohio and Akron.

Toledo has owned Marshall in recent seasons, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better.  Marshall is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game.  Take Toledo Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Elon +22

Elon has already shown they can stay within big numbers against some good teams this season.  They lost by 17 to North Carolina, by 13 to Florida, by 19 to West Virginia and by 18 to Ole Miss.  Their only really bad loss came to Duke by 31.  So as you can see, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country.

I expect Elon to stay within 22 points of Arkansas tonight.  The Razorbacks were overvalued due to playing a home-heavy, easy schedule en route to a 9-0 start.  They finally played a true road game and lost by 22 at Oklahoma.  They followed up up with an upset loss to Hofstra as a 12.5-point favorite.  And they have no business laying 22 points to Elon tonight.

Elon is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after losing eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Elon Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Thomas -2.5

Nebraska-Omaha is one of the worst teams in the country.  They are 1-10 this season and losing by 18.0 points per game on average.  They haven't won a game since their 67-57 victory over Hastings College in their opener.  All 10 losses have come by 4 points or more and eight of them by double-digits.

St. Thomas has been competent this season at 4-5 and 4-2 ATS in lined games.  Four of their five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They were competitive in losses to Drake and Montana State recently, which are two of the better mid-major programs.  They should handle Nebraska-Omaha here.

The Tommies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Thomas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Mavericks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Omaha is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with St. Thomas Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -17.5

I expect the Oklahoma Sooners to be one of the most improved teams in the country from the beginning of the season to the end. That's because they have one of the best head coaches in the country in Porter Moser, who is in his first year at Oklahoma.

The Sooners are 8-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with impressive wins over Florida, Arkansas and UCF. They just blasted Arkansas by 22 points last time out.

Now the Sooners have had a full week to get ready for UT-Arlington having last played on December 11th. They'll be rested and ready to destroy a 3-6 Arlington team that already has blowout losses to Oklahoma State by 37, North Texas by 28 and Utah State by 19.

Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Arlington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games. Moser is 21-9 ATS as a head coach in home games after scoring 80 points or more. Take Oklahoma Sunday.

20* Auburn/Saint Louis CBB No-Brainer on Saint Louis +5.5

The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the better mid-majors programs in the country under Travis Ford. They are 8-3 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with two of their three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.

The Billikens are battle-tested in the early going with wins over Stephen F. Austin, Boise State and Boston College as well as losses to Memphis, UAB and Belmont. They are ready to take on an Auburn team that has feasted on a weak schedule and is overrated.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after opening 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS this season. This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season as they have played a home-heavy schedule. The first was a shaky 58-52 win at South Florid as 13-point favorites and that is a terrible Bulls team.

Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after playing two consecutive home games. The Billikens are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games. Saint Louis is 42-20 ATS in its last 62 games as an underdog. Auburn is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -1.5

Georgia should be a bigger favorite at home over George Mason tonight. After a rough start to the season against a brutal schedule, the Bulldogs have turned the corner.

They had tough losses to Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Northwestern and Wofford in a 2-5 start. But they have since put together two straight great performances in an upset win over Memphis as 11.5-point dogs and a cover against Jacksonville as 9-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs take on a reeling George Mason team that is just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The lone win was a 71-65 home victory over Navy which is far from impressive. They also lost to Old Dominion by 10, James Madison, Washington, South Dakota State and Nevada by 19. Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* South Carolina/Clemson CBB ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +8.5

Frank Martin always seems to have his South Carolina Gamecocks flying under the radar. That appears to be the case again this season as the Gamecocks are off to an 8-2 SU & 5-4 ATS start this season.

Indeed, the Gamecocks have already pulled off upset wins over UAB and Florida State as well as a 13-point win over Georgetown, an 11-point win over Wofford and an 11-point win over Western Kentucky.

Clemson is 7-4 this season with losses to Rutgers, Miami, West Virginia and St. Bonaventure. The Tigers don't have many impressive wins as their seven victories have come against Miami Ohio, Drake, Charleston, Temple, Bryant, Wofford and Presbyterian. So Wofford is a common opponent and they beat them by 8 while South Carolina beat them by 11, both at home.

South Carolina is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after a home win where it scored 85 points or more. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, including a 67-54 upset win by the Gamecocks as 6-point road dogs in their last meeting. Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Canisus +15.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on this 2-9 Canisius team that just doesn't get blown out. Eight of their nine losses have come by 14 points or fewer, so within this 15.5-point spread.

This is a terrible spot for Buffalo. They are coming off two straight huge road games against St. Bonaventure and Western Kentucky and won't be nearly as motivated for this game with Canisius. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulls after opening 6-1 ATS in their lined games this season.

Canisius is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus boards more than their opponent per game. The Golden Griffins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs. Bet Canisius Saturday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Tarleton State ML +105

I love the spot for Tarleton State tonight. This is a home-and-home situation. After losing 62-69 at South Alabama on Tuesday, the Texans host the Jaguars four days later here Friday and will be out for revenge. They blew a 4-point halftime lead in that game.

Tarleton State has played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the entire country this season, so they are battle-tested. They were competitive against Stanford, Wichita State, Michigan and Gonzaga which is all that needs to be said about the potential of this team.

South Alabama has feasted on a much weaker schedule and is overvalued with its 9-2 record. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars after opening 6-1 ATS in all lined games. This is clearly a flat spot for them, and they won't be nearly as motivated as Tarleton State after winning the first meeting.

The Texans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs. The Jaguars are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road favorites. South Alabama is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite overall. Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +13

SE Missouri State is simply catching too many points today.  They are 5-5 this season with only one loss by more than 13 points.  That includes their 99-94 win at Missouri State as 16-point dogs, a fellow Missouri Valley Conference team like Southern Illinois.

The Salukis haven't shown me enough to warrant being 13-point favorites in this matchup.  They are 5-4 this season with their five wins coming against Southern Miss, Alcorn State, Evansville, Austin Peay and Colorado.  They have just two wins by more than 4 points this season.

Southern Illinois is 20-35 ATS in its last 55 games as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points.  The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet SE Missouri State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Middle Tennessee +11.5

Middle Tennessee is 8-2 this season with its only losses both coming on the road to Stephen F. Austin by 13 and Murray State by 6 as double-digit underdogs in both games.  The Blue Raiders are a legit mid-major team this year and fully capable of hanging with Ole Miss tonight.

This is a 6-3 Ole Miss team with some very bad losses already.  They are coming off a 23-point loss to Western Kentucky as 5.5-point favorites.  They were also upset by Boise State by 10 and Marquette by 6.  Their only good win was a 67-63 victory over Memphis at home, but that Memphis team has clearly been overrated this season.

The Blue Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Middle Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Ole Miss is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Middle Tennessee Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +8

Santa Clara is a veteran team that didn't lose a single double-digit scorer from last season.  But they have been disappointing after a 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS start with upset wins over Nevada, Stanford and TCU.  They have since gone just 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Now I think it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Broncos as they are catching 8 points against Boise State tonight.  They have only lost one time by more than 7 points all season, so this is a nice value.

And this isn't a very good Boise State (6-4) team compared to previous versions with all they lost from last season.  The Broncos already have four losses this season including upset losses to UC-Irvine and CS-Bakersfield.  Their six wins have come against Prairie View A&M, CS-Northridge, Ole Miss, Temple, Tulsa and Utah Valley State as they were favored in five of those six games.

Santa Clara is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Santa Clara is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Santa Clara Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +11.5

DePaul is grossly overrated right now after opening 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS against an extremely soft schedule with eight home games and just one road game.  That road game was impressive with an upset win at Louisville last time out, but that also makes this a letdown spot for them and a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons as double-digit road favorites.

Illinois-Chicago is just 3-6 this season but most of the losses have been within this number against quality teams.  They only lost by 10 at Dayton, upset Valpo on the road, and covered as 18-point dogs at Loyola-Chicago.  Their other four losses all came by 12 points or fewer as they were dogs in three of the four and a 1-point favorite in the other.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (DePaul) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 154-95 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Blue Demons.  They are coming off the upset win at Louisville and now they have a road game at Northwestern on deck Saturday.  They won't be giving Illinois-Chicago their full attention tonight, and that's going to make it difficult to cover this 11.5-point spread.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Tuesday.

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State +24

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  They are coming off two straight road games against Providence and Tennessee in which they lost by 4 to the Friars before rebounding with a 5-point win over the Volunteers.  

Now the Red Raiders have an even bigger game on deck against Gonzaga on Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot and a huge lookahead spot to that Gonzaga game.  The Red Raiders won't be fully focused for this one, and that's going to make it very hard for them to cover this 24-point spread.

That's especially the case considering Arkansas State is a quality, veteran team that returned all five starters from last season.  The Red Wolves are off to a 7-2 start this season with their losses coming to Illinois and Morehead State.  But they have failed to cover three in a row coming in SU wins at big favorites, so it's a great time to 'buy low' on them.

Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after winning four or five of its last six games coming in.  Arkansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  The Red Wolves are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Arkansas State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Red Wolves.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State +13

The Cleveland State Vikings returned all five starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last year.  After 10 and 11-point losses to two quality teams in BYU and Ohio to open the season, respectively, the Vikings have reeled off six straight victories with five by double-digits.

Now they are ready to give Oklahoma State a run for its money tonight.  The Cowboys are grossly overrated this season, and it has really shown in their last three games.  They only beat Oral Roberts by 1 as 9.5-point favorites, were upset by Wichita State by 9 as 6-point home favorites and were upset by Xavier by 6 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by Oakland as 17-point home favorites earlier this season.

Oklahoma State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% shooting or less.  The Vikings are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  Cleveland State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.  Bet Cleveland State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dayton +2.5

Dayton is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming on the road to SMU by a final of 69-77.  This run includes three upset wins over Miami 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs, Kansas 74-73 as 16-point dogs and Belmont 63-61 as 3.5-point dogs.  

The Flyers followed up those three upsets wins with blowout victories over Alabama State 93-54 as 19.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois 79-41 as 17.5-point favorites.  So they avoided the letdowns in those games, and that is not a bad loss at SMU.  Look for them to get back in the win column at home today against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are 6-3 this season with their six wins all coming against cupcake opponents other than Maryland, which is way down this season.  They lost to Memphis and Xavier on neutrals and were blasted at home by Wake Forest 61-80 as 8.5-point favorites.  This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season today.

Dayton is 22-6 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. ACC opponents.  The Hokies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Flyers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Take Dayton Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road to Michigan State and Oakland, two very good teams.  They have handled all other comers, and they will hang with Richmond Saturday.

The Spiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-4 SU this season with their five wins coming against NC Central, Georgia State, HOfstra, Wofford and Northern Iowa.  They have lost to the four best teams they have faced in Utah State, Maryland, Mississippi State and Drake.  And Toledo ranks as one of the best teams they have faced.

Richmond is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Spiders are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  Take Toledo Saturday.

15* Arizona/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +1

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off five straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Iowa.  The 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites and the 87-83 upset win at Iowa showed their potential.

Now the Fighting Illini will hand Arizona their first loss of the season.  The Wildcats have been impressive in their 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS start, but it has come against the 242nd-ranked schedule in the country.  Illinois has played the 92nd-ranked schedule.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who will be playing just their 2nd true road game of the season with the other being against lowly Oregon State.  This will be their toughest test of the season by far.

Illinois is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 80 points or more last game.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more points per game.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +9.5

Oral Roberts made a run to the Sweet 16 last year and brought back a lot of talent from that team.  Now they have played a tough early schedule that ranks 135th in the country.  They are 5-4 with three of their losses coming as big dogs to Colorado State, Oklahoma State (1-point loss) and TCU (8-point loss).

Oral Roberts has proven they can hang with teams like Oklahoma State and TCU, and now they will stay within single-digits of an even worse Missouri State team today.  The Bears are also 5-4, but it has come against the 309th-ranked schedule int he country.  They have upset losses to SE Missouri State as 16-point favorites, E. Tennessee State as 7-point favorites and Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites.  They have no business being a 9.5-point favorite against Oral Roberts today.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Oral Roberts) - off a road win by 10 points ormore against an opponent that is off a road win by 20 points or more are 80-39 (67.2%) ATS since 1997.  

The Golden Eagles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Oral Roberts is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Golden Eagles are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Oral Roberts Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2

What more does Colorado State have to do to get respect from oddsmakers?  They brought back all five starters from a team that nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are well on their way to the Big Dance after a 9-0 start this season, outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per game.

The Rams have already picked up some very quality wins over Oral Roberts by 29, Bradley by 6, Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16.  Now they will take down a Mississippi State team that got off to a fast start against a weak schedule, but some holes have showed up of late.

The Bulldogs are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 14 to Louisville on a neutral as a 1.5-point favorite.  They only beat Lamar by 15 as a 22.5-point home favorite.  And they were upset as 11.5-point home favorites by a bad Minnesota team.  I would argue this is their toughest test of the season to date.

The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Colorado State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rams are 11-3 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Niko Medved is 27-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game in all games as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are just getting no love from the books or bettors alike.  We'll take advantage tonight and back them as home underdogs.  TJ Otzelberger is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country, and it's all of his recruits that are making the biggest impact for the Cyclones this season.

Iowa State is 8-0 this season with upset wins over Xavier 82-70 as 9-point underdogs on a neutral, Memphis 78-59 as 11.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Creighton 64-58 as 5.5-point road dogs.  Penn State transfer Isaiah Brockington (16.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Minnesota transfer Gabe Kalscheur (12.1 PPG), stud freshman PG Tyrese Hunter (11.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) and UNLV transfer Caleb Grill (7.6 PPG) are the top four scorers for the Cyclones thanks to Otzelberger's recruiting.

But the biggest difference has been Otzelberger's coaching to get this team to play defense, which is something Steve Prohm didn't do a good job of before him.  The Cyclones are holding opponents to 60.1 points per game this season, and those opponents typically average 70.1 points per game, so they are holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa is overvalued after a 7-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They opened with six straight home wins as 19.5-point favorites or more before beating Virginia by 1 as 2-point road underdogs.  That's a down Virginia team.  Then they finally played some big boys in Purdue and Illinois and lost despite making some big rallies late after falling behind by double-digits to both.  Those final scores were closer than the games actually were.

The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Fran McCaffery is 6-15 ATS in road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +2.5

Connecticut is one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskies are 8-1 this season with their only loss coming to Michigan State in overtime after they blew a big late lead.  They also have a win over Auburn on a neutral the day prior that went to multiple overtimes, so it explains how they ran out of gas against Michigan State.

West Virginia is 7-1 this season against a very easy schedule.  They have late bad teams like Oakland (won by 7) and Eastern Kentucky (won by 3) hang around at home.  They lost by 11 to Marquette on a neutral with their best win coming against Clemson by 7 on a neutral.  This will be their toughest test of the season for a rebuilding Mountaineers squad.

West Virginia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after playing two or more consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Take Connecticut Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Providence.  They have five quality wins already over Texas A&M, Houston, St. Mary's, Georgia Tech and Marquette.  They have played the 56th-toughest schedule in the country.

Indiana is also 7-1, but it has come against the 273rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They were double-digit favorites in six of their seven wins.  In their lone road game, they lost outright to a bad Syracuse team.  And now this will be their toughest test of the season by far at Wisconsin.

Wisconsin simply owns Indiana at home, going 18-1 SU in the last 19 meetings in Madison.  Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Wisconsin Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on North Dakota State +5.5

North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 5-3 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2), Arizona and Creighton.  They have taken care of business against everyone else.

Montana State lost to a team the caliber of North Dakota State in South Dakota State by a final of 74-91.  The Bobcats are 5-4 this season with their only wins coming against Rocky Mountain, Portland, Incarnate Word, SE Missouri State and Sacramento State with two of those wins coming by 3 points or less.

The Bobcats should not be this big of favorites against the Bison, let alone favorites at all.  It's also a tougher rest spot for the Bobcats as they will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days, while the Bison come in on four days' rest after blasting Northland 114-51 last time out on December 2nd.

North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games following an ATS loss.  Montana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  The Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Montana State is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -18.5

The Kansas Jayhawks have faced a brutal schedule thus far and are 6-1 with their only loss coming to Dayton by a single point after blowing a double-digit lead.  They beat St. John's by 20 and Michigan State by 13 with five of their seven games on a neutral thus far.  Now they are back home where they have beaten Tarleton State by 26 and Stony Brook by 29.

Kansas has played the 72nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Now they take a on a 4-3 UTEP team that has played the 192nd schedule.  Their toughest games were two losses to New Mexico State.  The their five games have come against Western New Mexico, Northern New Mexico, Pacific, UC-Riverside (lost by 12) and Florida A&M.  It's safe to say this is a massive step up in class for the Miners.

UTEP is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Miners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  This is an elite Kansas offense averaging 85.4 points per game against teams that only allow 66 points per game, scoring nearly 20 points per game more than their opponents typically allow.  They will run it up here.  Roll with Kansas Tuesday.

20* Illinois/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +4

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off four straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame and Rutgers.  That 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites showed their potential, and I think we get their 'A' game against Iowa tonight.

The Hawkeyes are overvalued after opening the season 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS.  But their first six games were all at home against suspect competition as they were basically 20-point favorites or more in every game.  They escaped with a 75-74 win at Virginia, a team that is down this season.  And they lost by 7 at Purdue last time out, which was a respectable showing but I think has them overvalued tonight as 4-point favorites against the Fighting Illini.  

I have no doubt Illinois is the better of these two teams and it will show on the court.  The Fighting Illini are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  Roll with Illinois Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -1.5

Northern Iowa is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now due to their 2-4 record.  They were banged up early in the season and suffered a couple upset losses.  But they have since gotten healthy and have played better.  They returned all five starters and basically everyone from last year.

They are just 2-2 since getting healthy, but close to being 4-0.  They held a 1-point lead in the final three minutes as 12.5-point dogs at Arkansas and lost.  They upset St. Bonaventure 90-80 as 10-point road dogs.  And they lost just before the buzzer to Bradley, 69-71 on the road last time out.

Now the Panthers are back home and taking on a Richmond team that is overrated.  The Spiders are just 4-4 this season.  They lost to Utah State, Drake, Maryland and Mississippi State.  Their four wins came against NC Central, Georgia State, Hofstra and Wofford with three of those wins coming at home.

Northern Iowa is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  Roll with Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* Alabama/Gonzaga ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +9.5

Alabama is really getting disrespected here.  The Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the country, and oddsmakers are asking Gonzaga to win by double-digits Saturday to beat us.  That's asking too much.

Gonzaga has shown vulnerabilities in its last two games.  They lost outright to Duke as 9-point favorites, then came back with just a 9-point win over Tarleton State as 31-point favorites.  Now they are up against an Alabama team that definitely has some of the best guards in the country that will be hard to deal with.

Alabama is 6-1 this season with a 4-point loss to Iona in upset fashion.  But the other six games have been very impressive in going 5-1 ATS in those six games.  That includes a 32-point win over Miami, a 9-point win over a good Drake team, a 16-point win over a good South Dakota State team, a 27-point win over a good Oakland team and a 29-point win over a quality Louisiana Tech team.  Those aren't big names, but they are some of the better teams in their mid-major conferences.

Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 40 or more boards per game.  Nate Oats is 11-2 ATS when the total is 160 or higher as the coach of Alabama.  Mark Few is 1-8 ATS after two straight games forcing 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga.  Take Alabama Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2

Saint Louis is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Memphis.  They brought back almost everyone from last year and a ton of talent for Travis Ford.  And they have impressive road wins over Stephen F. Austin and Boise State in their last two games coming in.

UAB is getting way too much respect after opening 6-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS against a soft schedule.  They lost to the two best teams they faced in South Carolina and San Francisco, neither of which are as good as Saint Louis.  And the six wins have come against suspect competition as they have been a double-digit favorite in all six.

Saint Louis has a huge home-court advantage and is 4-0 at home this season while winning by 41.8 points per game.  The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference home games.  Saint Louis is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games overall.  Take Saint Louis Saturday.