Winning Sports Picks

15* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats have waited an entire year for the opportunity at revenge against Wisconsin.  They lost in the Elite 8 to the Badgers last year by a final of 63-64 (OT), and that has left a sour taste in their mouth all offseason and throughout the year.  I believe that extra motivation will push them over the top as they get revenge in the Elite 8 exactly one year later.

Plus, I believe the Wildcats are the better team as well.  They are 34-3 on the season with their three losses coming by a combined 9 points.  That's how close they are to being 37-0 right alongside Kentucky.  They have won 14 in a row coming into this one with all 14 wins coming by 6 points or more, and 11 of those 14 coming by double-digits.

Wisconsin has been very vulnerable up to this point in the tournament.  It only beat Coastal Carolina by 14 as 20.5-point favorites while giving up 48.3% shooting.  It only beat Oregon by 7 as 12.5-point favorites while allowing Joseph Young to score 30 points.  It then was fortunate to beat UNC by 7 last time out as this was a 1-point game in the final minute.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or less turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Arizona is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take Arizona Saturday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State +3

You would have to say that NC State (22-13, 10-8 ACC) has been the surprise of the tournament up to this point. It was very fortunate to survive in a 66-65 win over LSU in the Round of 64. The Tigers missed each of their last six free throw attempts to allow the Wolfpack to escape with a 16-point come-from-behind victory. It was a different story against No. 1 Villanova in the Round of 32.

The Wolfpack controlled the game most of the way against the Wildcats and eventually held on for a 71-68 victory. Four different NC State played scored in double figures, led by Trevor Lacey’s 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Cat Barber added 13 points, while Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds) controlled the paint all game.

NC State has really been playing well for quite some time now.  It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 74-65 win at then-No. 9 Louisville on February 14th as 10.5-point underdogs as the Cardinals shot just 32.8%, so this will be a rematch.  It also won at then-No. 15 North Carolina 58-46 on February 24th.  It has beaten Duke within the conference as well.  Throw in that win over Villanova, and the Wolfpack are proving they can play with anyone.

Louisville has had a relatively easy path to get here.  It barely survived in a 57-55 victory over UC-Irvine in the opener.  It then played a Northern Iowa team that was probably overvalued due to its record in the last round, winning that game 66-53.  UNI didn't have the guards that could deal with Louisville's press, but this is a much tougher matchup for the Cardinals because the Wolfpack do have the guards to deal with it.  They also have Abu and Freeman inside who can counter Montrezl Harrell.

The Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 9-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  Thee Cardinals are 3-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this year.  Bet NC State Friday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -10.5

The Arizona Wildcats are proving in the NCAA Tournament that they were deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the big dance, and I look for them to continue their dominance in the Sweet 16 against Xavier.

After all, Arizona (33-3) is three losses by a combined 9 points away from being 36-0 right now right alongside Kentucky.  They beat Texas Southern (93-72) in the opening round, which is the same Texas Southern team that has wins over Michigan State and Kansas State this season.

In the Round of 32, the Wildcats put together one of their most impressive performances of the season.  They beat Ohio State 73-58 despite shooting just 36.5% from the field.  They did so by limiting the Buckeyes to just 3 second-chance points for the entire game while rebounding 78 percent of their misses.

Xavier couldn't have had an easier path to the Sweet 16, and therefore it is overvalued coming into this game.  It got to play an Ole Miss team that was tired after staging a huge comeback two days earlier against BYU in the opener.  Then, it got lucky and had Georgia State upset No. 3 Baylor.  The Musketeers would only beat Georgia State 75-67 despite shooting 67.6 percent from the floor, which was the third-best mark in the NCAA Tournament over the past 15 years.

Xavier has played some good teams this season, but it has yet to face a team the quality of Arizona.  The only thing close has been Villanova, and the Musketeers have been blown out three times by the Wildcats.  They lost 88-75 at Villanova, 78-66 at home against the Wildcats, and 69-52 in the Big East Tournament to Villanova.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Arizona is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Night Line Mistake on West Virginia +13.5

Bobby Huggins finds himself back in the Sweet 16 with a West Virginia team that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  What I love about the Musketeers is that they play a style of basketball that Kentucky isn't used to, and thus they have an excellent chance of hanging around in this game.

The Mountaineers beat Buffalo 68-62 before beating down Maryland 69-59.  They forced 23 turnovers and scored 26 points off of them in Sunday's win over Maryland.  The Terrapins only managed four points against their press in the second half.  They also forced turnovers on 26 percent of Buffalo's possessions in the opener.

Kentucky showed it was vulnerable as Cincinnati played it tough for the first 25 minutes.  The Wildcats did eventually pull away for a 64-51 victory, but they fell to 0-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Hampton by 23 as 34.5-point favorites and Cincinnati by 13 as 16-point favorites.  Once again, I believe the Wildcats are overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites over WVU.

West Virginia is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 post-season tournament games.  West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces should be much heavier favorites today against the Eastern Illinois Panthers.  It's amazing that they even have to play this game on the road considering they are the better team, but that won't be a big deal since they are the better team, and now they're showing great value as only 2-point favorites.

Evansville is now 20-12 on the season following its 82-77 home victory over a pesky IUPU-Fort Wayne team in the opening round of the CIT.  This is a Purple Aces team that only lost twice in non-conference play, and both came by exactly two points against very good Green Bay and Murray State teams.  They also beat Northern Iowa, which has only lost four times all season.

Eastern Illinois is just 18-14 on the season.  It did upset Oakland 97-91 in the opening round of the CIT, but that effort has it overvalued coming in.  The Panthers lost by 33 to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament.  They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, which includes an 11-point loss to Missouri State, a 22-point loss to Creighton, and a 25-point loss to NC Central.

The Panthers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Purple Aces are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Evansville is 6-0 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Eastern Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight games where they had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Monday.

25* South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -6

Gonzaga (33-2, 17-1 WCC) got more of a scare from North Dakota State in the first round than it would have liked. While it was never in real serious jeopardy, it simply could not deliver the knockout blow in an 86-76 victory. Kyle Wiltjer was brilliant, connecting on 8-of-12 from the field for 23 points. Kevin Pangos added 18 points, including 4-of-9 from 3-point range, in the win.

The Bulldogs probably still feel like they got snubbed from a No. 1 seed. This is easily the best team that head coach Mark Few has ever had. They proved they were for real back in December when they took Arizona to overtime on the road. They also beat SMU by 16, Georgia by 12, St. John’s by 7, Washington State by 15 and UCLA by 13 out of conference. They outscore the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game.

Iowa put together perhaps the  most impressive performance of the tournament thus far in its 83-52 beat down of Davidson.  Many had picked the Wildcats to upset the Hawkeyes, but in the end, this was a total mismatch.  The Hawkeyes had a huge height advantage and they capitalized on it.  It turned out to be just a terrible matchup for the Wildcats.

This line is clearly an overreaction from Iowa blowing Davidson out and Gonzaga failing to cover in a 10-point win over North Dakota State. This line would have been set much closer to 10 had these teams played before the Round of 64 results. That’s why I believe there is value with the Zags, who will have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle.

Gonzaga is 18-9 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 18-7 ATS when playing on one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Gonzaga is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss.  Iowa is 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes won't have the height advantage they had against Davidson.  Bet Gonzaga.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run.  They survived against Wofford in the opener, and that will give them confidence that they can pull out another close one against UNC today.

This is a team that went 27-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.  Three of its eight losses have actually come to Kentucky, so it has been nearly unbeatable outside of the Wildcats.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

North Carolina (25-11) has been inconsistent all season.  That showed again in a narrow 67-65 win over Harvard as 10-point favorites in the Round of 64.  I just don't believe this team should be laying points to the Razorbacks, who are the better squad in my opinion.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots this season.  UNC is 0-6 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Razorbacks.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Utah South Region No-Brainer on Georgetown +4.5

Georgetown (22-10, 12-6 Big East) put to rest all the talk that it couldn’t handle underdogs. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera scored 25 points, Mikael Hopkins had 10 points and nine rebounds, and the Hoyas avoided another tournament upset by beating No. 13 Eastern Washington 84-74 Thursday night. They had lost four of their last five tournament games, and they found themselves down by seven in the first half, but they eventually stormed out to a 23-point lead before holding on late.

The Hoyas have all the pieces to make a deep run. Former UCLA problem child Josh Smith is a dominant post force, Smith-Rivera can do everything a lead guard must do, Hopkins is the heart of the Hoyas’ defense, Isaac Copeland is a versatile freshman with an NBA future, and Jabril Trawick strikes fear into the opposition.

Utah has been extremely vulnerable down the stretch since a 21-4 start.  It has lost four of its last eight games overall, and it barely survived in a 57-50 win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  The Lumberjacks were within three points late, but the Utes iced it from the free throw line.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Hoyas tonight.

Remember, this is a Georgetown team that beat Villanova by 20 points earlier this season to hand the Wildcats one of their two losses. The Hoyas are 94-57 ATS in their last 151 non-conference games, including 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference opponents.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* Dayton/Providence Late-Night BAILOUT on Dayton +3

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year as well.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Dayton trailed most of the way in its First Four game against Boise State, which was essentially a home game for the Flyers as it was played inside Dayton Arena. However, the Flyers got a game-winning 3-pointer from Sibert with 36 seconds left to play that proved to be the difference in a 56-55 victory over the Broncos. They improved to 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.

The Flyers are 14-4 ATS in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Dayton is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 non-conference road games.  The Flyers are 22-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last two years.  Providence is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games after covering four of its last five against the spread.

Dayton had a real home-court advantage in the First Four game and prevailed in a tight one with Boise State. Jordan Sibert was in foul trouble, but when he was on the floor the Flyers were dangerous. Now, they’ll actually get to play in their home state again in Columbus, Ohio, which is another huge advantage. I look for them to feed off of the crowd and to pull the upset of Providence, which is one of the more overrated teams in the country.  Roll with Dayton Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -13

Oklahoma (22-10, 12-6 Big 12) finished in a tie for second place in the Big 12 this season, which was easily the strongest conference in the country. Veteran head coach Lon Krueger brought back a ton of talent from last year, and he added in Tashawn Thomas, a Houston transfer who provided the Sooners with a big who can score.

Without question, the Sooners have one of the best starting fives in the country. Buddy Hield (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is one of the best players in the land, but Isaiah Cousins (12.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), TaShawn Thomas (11.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Ryan Spangler (10.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Jordan Woodard (9.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3.9 apg) are all capable of carrying the team on a given night. The only weakness is a lack of depth off the bench.

Albany (24-8, 15-1 Am. East) rolled through a weak conference schedule, but it was a completely different story out of conference.  The Great Danes went just 9-8 in non-conference play.  They lost to Quinnipiac, Holy Cross, St. Francis, Bucknell and Niagara, which shows that they simply aren't very good.

Albany struggles to score the basketball as well, ranking 218th in scoring (65.5 points/game) and 312th in assists (10.4/game).  Oklahoma has no trouble scoring the basketball, ranking 65th at 71.9 points per game.  I look for the Sooners to jump out to a big lead, and for Albany to not have the firepower to hang around.

Oklahoma is 14-5 ATS against poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 21-10 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons. They’ll be up against an Albany team that is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  Take Oklahoma Friday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Maryland -4

Maryland (27-6, 14-4 Big Ten) was one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  It continues to lack the respect it deserves as only a 4-point favorite over No. 13 Valparaiso in the Round of 64.  The Terrapins even deserved better than a No. 4 seed in my opinion.

Maryland went 10-1 in non-conference play with its only loss coming to then-No. 7 Virginia.  It beat then-No. 13 Iowa State 72-63 and Arizona State 78-73 for two impressive non-conference wins, while also going on the road and beating Oklahoma State (73-64).  It has six wins in Big Ten play against NCAA Tournament teams as well, including two over Michigan State and one over Wisconsin.

Valparaiso had a fine season at 28-5 and 13-3 in the Horizon League, but it is not battle-tested because it played such a soft schedule this year.  Its non-conference schedule was a joke with its best win coming against Murray State, but it also lost by 15 at Missouri (41-56), which was terrible this year.  The Horizon League was a joke this year as well outside of Wisconsin-Green Bay, which lost to Illinois State in the first round of the NIT.

The Terrapins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Crusaders are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  Valpo is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Terrapins.  Bet Maryland Friday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run, and I look for them to do just that starting with this game against Wofford.

It's obvious that the Razorbacks don't get the love they deserve when this line is only 7.5 in a No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.  I look for them to go out and earn it in this game.  This is a team that went 26-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.  Three of its eight losses this season came to Kentucky.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

Wofford posted an impressive 28-6 record this season, but it did so against the weakest of schedules.  The Terriers only had one good non-conference win this season, which was a 55-54 victory at NC State.  They were blown out by 33 at West Virginia, by 29 at Duke and by 15 at Stanford.  If they cannot compete with those teams, they certainly aren't going to hang with Arkansas.

Arkansas is 8-1 ATS off two or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons, coming back to win by an average of 15.1 points per game in this spot.  The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Terriers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. SEC foes.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Texas -1.5

The higher seed is going to beat the lower seed in this game between No. 11 Texas and No. 6 Butler.  It will be an upset in terms of the bracket, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have this one right in listing the Longhorns as the favorites.  They are the better team and it will show on Thursday.

Texas (20-13) was a popular pick to make the Final Four coming into the season.  With all five starters back, and the addition of future lottery pick Myles Turner, it's easy to see why.  Well, the Longhorns did not live up to expectations this year, and it didn't help that they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, as well as in the toughest conference in the country.

There's no denying that Texas has the pieces and the talent to make a deep run in the big dance.  They have a dynamic point guard in Isiah Taylor, a versatile wingman in Jonathan Holmes, and an imposing back line.  In fact, no team blocks more shots per possession than the Longhorns.  I believe their size will give the undersized Butler Bulldogs fits in this one.

When you look at Texas' season, it's easy to see that it was better than its record would indicate.  It played a brutal non-conference schedule with wins over Iowa, Cal and UConn, while losing to Kentucky and Stanford (OT).  Each of its last six losses in Big 12 play came by 8 points or less, so it was simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS in road games against poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Texas is 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +14

The UAB Blazers benefited from playing the Conference USA Tournament in their home city. They parlayed that home-court advantage into a Conference USA Tournament title. They beat Western Kentucky 53-52, Louisiana Tech 72-62 (OT), and Middle Tennessee 73-60 to punch their ticket to the big dance.

However, I would argue that UAB (19-15) is much better than its record would indicate. In fact, each of its last six losses came by either 4 points or less or in overtime. You have to go all the way back to December 27th against North Carolina on the road to find the last time that the Blazers were really blown out. They were also blown out by Wisconsin, and lost to Florida by 9 and UCLA by 12 in the non conference.

Iowa State is getting a lot of hype coming into the NCAA Tournament due to its Big 12 Tournament win.  Well, nothing came easy for the Cyclones.  In fact, they have trailed by double-digits in each of their last five games and by a combined 75 points, yet they have gone 5-0 with all close victories.  They just have a way of playing to the level of their competition and falling behind early, which bodes well for the Blazers covering this 14-point spread.

Due to all of these close games, it’s no wonder that the Blazers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. UAB is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against a team with a winning record. The Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. UAB is also 10-1 ATS against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games this season.  Take UAB Thursday.

25* NCAA First Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Dayton -4

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Boise State is 25-8 on the season as well and had a very solid year.  But it played a much softer schedule than Dayton this season.  The Broncos are overvalued coming in due to having gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They have to make a long trip to Dayton for this First-Four game, which is a huge disadvantage.

Dayton is 16-0 at home this season and has won its last 21 overall at UD Arena, which is the seventh-longest active streak in Division 1. The Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight versus excellent teams with a shooting percentage of 45% or more and a shooting percentage defense of 42% or less.  Bet Dayton Wednesday.

15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois State -3

The Illinois State Redbirds (21-12) were overlooked this season in the Missouri Valley Conference.  That's because both Wichita State and Northern Iowa had tremendous seasons.  Well, there's no question that the Redbirds were the third-best team in the conference.

There's no question in my mind that the Redbirds were even better than their 21-12 record would suggest.  In fact, eight of their 12 losses came by 6 points or less, so they were simply on the short end of the stick in so many close games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay played an easier schedule than Illinois State coming from the Horizon League.  It posted a solid 25-8 record this season, but it just couldn't beat Valpo when it needed to to get in the big dance.  I believe the Phoenix are still deflated following their loss to the Crusaders in the championship game.

One way to compare teams is common opponents.  These teams played the same four teams this year.  Green Bay went 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 8.5 points per game.  Illinois State went 6-0 against those same four teams, outscoring them by 14.7 points per game.

Illinois State is 11-2 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 32-53 ATS in its last 85 road games after covering two of its last three against the spread.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Redbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Take Illinois State Wednesday.

15* First-Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +4

Many felt that the BYU Cougars (25-9) did not belong in the NCAA Tournament because of their lack of quality wins.  I would have to agree, but a big finish and a win over Gonzaga got them in even though they would lose by 16 to the Zags in the conference tournament.

The Cougars didn't have one really impressive win outside of the conference, but they lost to SDSU, Purdue and Utah.  The Ole Miss Rebels (20-12) had their fair share of quality non-conference wins.  They beat Cincinnati on a neutral court and Oregon on the road.

There's no question that the Rebels played the tougher schedule in the SEC.  They took Kentucky to overtime on the road, which was the toughest that any team played the Wildcats this season.  They also beat fellow NCAA Tournament team Arkansas and played several others very tight.

Ole Miss is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games this year.  The Cougars are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games.  The Rebels are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Take Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UTEP +5.5

The Murray State Racers (27-5) are extremely disappointed that they won't be playing in the NCAA Tournament.  They felt like they did enough to get in, but the committee saw it differently after their lost to Belmont on a last-second 3-pointer in the conference championship game.

The UTEP Miners (22-10) are a very good team that played a much more difficult schedule than the Racers did this season.  They are the better team in this game in my opinion, and they should not even be underdogs to the Racers, let alone 5.5-point dogs.

UTEP did lose four non-conference games this year, but all four of them came by 7 points or less, including a 5-point loss to Arizona.  Murray State also lost four non-conference games, including a 74-77 home loss to Houston, a 62-89 loss at Xavier, and a 58-93 loss to Valparaiso.

The Miners are 9-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Racers are 24-48 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game since 1997.  The Miners are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games following a S.U. loss.  The Racers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

20* Arkansas/Kentucky SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +14

The Arkansas Razorbacks are the type of team that can beat Kentucky.  They are nearly as athletic as the Wildcats, and they have a big man in Bobby Portis who is one of the best players in college basketball to match up with them.

Arkansas has been killing it in the SEC Tournament thus far.  They beat Georgia 60-49 yesterday, but also topped Tennessee 80-72 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate; they were up 20 at half.

Arkansas is 11-3 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.  The Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS off a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  Kentucky is 5-12 ATS after allowing 30 points or less at the half in two straight games.  The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Bet Arkansas Sunday.

15* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 Saturday No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones simply have the kind of momentum that's going to carry them to a Big 12 Championship Saturday.  They have won their first two games over Texas and Oklahoma by two points each while getting it done in the closing seconds.

Kansas had a much easier route to the title game, beating TCU and Baylor to get here.  But the Jayhawks are not a very deep team, so playing their 3rd game in 3 days will be tougher for them than it will be for the Cyclones, who have a deep bench.

The Cyclones are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Iowa State is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern -3

Georgia Southern (21-8) fits one of my favorite systems Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe (21-11).  The Eagles have not played since March 7th, meaning they'll be well-rested and ready to go.

The same can not be said for the Warhawks, who played yesterday in a 77-59 victory over South Alabama.  Not only will the Warhawks be the less prepared team, they'll also be the more tired team after playing the second of a back-to-back.

The Warhawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.  The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.  Georgia Southern is 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 games overall.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -13

The Kentucky Wildcats are on a mission to go undefeated this season.  That will keep them plenty motivated in the SEC Tournament.  I like their chances of rolling the Florida Gators today, similar to their 67-50 victory over the Gators a week ago.

I like backing teams who are rested like Kentucky against teams on no rest like Florida who covered the day before.  The Wildcats received a bye in the SEC Tournament, while the Gators had to play Alabama yesterday.

Florida is 3-10 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Take Kentucky Friday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -9

The Davidson Wildcats have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They managed to win the Atlantic 10 in their first season as members of the conference.  That's a pretty impressive feat considering the A-10 just gets stronger every year.

What I really like about this play is that Davidson is rested after receiving a bye due to winning the conference.  Meanwhile, LaSalle is playing the second of a back-to-back after beating UMass yesterday.  I'll take the more fresh, more prepared team in the Wildcats in this one.

Davidson is 16-3 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.  The Wildcats are 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season.  The Explorers are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 vs. Atlantic 10.  The Wildcats are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.  Roll with Davidson Friday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -13.5

The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game rested and ready to go.  This will be their first game of the Big Ten Tournament, while Michigan will be playing the second of a back-to-back after beating Illinois yesterday. 

I'll gladly back the rested team here laying what I believe is a small number given the huge difference in talent on these teams.  I also believe the Wolverines are a bit overvalued because they played well yesterday and covered the spread with ease while upsetting the Fighting Illini.

Wisconsin is 12-3 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing less than 64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Bet Wisconsin Friday.

15* SEC Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt -4

The Vanderbilt Commodores (19-12) are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  This young squad has really grown up as the season has gone on, and they will be a dangerous out in the SEC Tournament.

The Commodores have played lights out for over a month now.  They are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their two losses during this stretch came by a combined 6 points to Tennessee (74-76) and Florida (47-50).  They have gone on the road and beaten Alabama (76-68), Tennessee (73-65) and Ole Miss (86-77) over this span as well.

Tennessee (15-15) couldn't be playing a whole lost worse heading into the SEC Tournament.  It is 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes an 18-point home loss to LSU, an 18-point home loss to Kentucky, an 8-point home loss to Vanderbilt, a 17-point road loss at Florida, and an 11-point home loss to South Carolina.  Give me the hot team and the small number.  Roll with Vanderbilt Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana -3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers (19-12) have nearly played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament down the stretch.  They have lost three in a row and are currently listed as the final team in the big dance on ESPN Joe Lunardi's "Last 4 In" list.

Without question, the Hoosiers need a win over Northwestern (15-16) to get in.  There's also no question that the Hoosiers are the better team.  However, due to their poor finish, coupled with the Wildcats' solid finish, the Hoosiers are shorter favorites than they should be in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament.

Adding fuel to the fire for Indiana is the fact that it will be out for revenge form a 65-72 loss at Northwestern on February 25th just two weeks ago.  The Wildcats shot 51.0% from the field in that game.  Well, that contest was at home for Northwestern, and this one will be at a neutral site.

Northwestern is 20-43 ATS in its last 63 games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season.  The Hoosiers are 9-2 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover over the last 2 seasons.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

20* AAC Thursday No-Brainer on East Carolina -3

East Carolina (13-18) has been a covering machine down the stretch and one that I have backed with regularity.  In fact, the Pirates are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They even beat the likes of Cincinnati (50-46) as 10.5-point dogs, Memphis (64-53) as 5.5-point dogs during this stretch.

They also beat UCF (12-17) in both meetings over this span.  They won 67-49 at home over the Knights and 71-66 on the road.  I look for them to cap off the 3-0 season sweep and easily cover this 3-point spread today.

UCF has been atrocious down the stretch.  It is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  It lost 65-75 at home to Memphis as 8-point dogs, 60-83 at Cincinnati as 15.5-point dogs, 66-71 at home to ECU as 2-point favorites, and 45-74 at South Florida as 1-point road favorites.

ECU is 7-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Pirates are 9-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this year. The Knights are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Pirates.  Take East Carolina Thursday.

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -3

This is easily my favorite play in the conference tournaments up to this point.  The Illinois Fighting Illini (19-12) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and desperately need a win or two in the conference tournament to get in.

In fact, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Fighting Illini as the second team on the "Next Four Out" list, so they have some work to do.  I look for them to come out highly motivated in this game against Michigan (15-15) as a result.

The Big Ten Tournament will essentially be a home venue for the Fighting Illini as it will be played in Chicago, Illinois.  That extra support from the home fans should certainly help their cause, but I think the way they are playing coming in is big, too.

Illinois has gone 6-4 in its last 10 games overall with its only four losses coming to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue.  Three of those losses came by 8 points or less, and three of them also came on the road.  Four of their wins have come by double-digits, including a 64-52 triumph over Michigan on January 12th.

While Illinois is finally healthy with leading scorer Rayvonte Rice recently returning, Michigan has been banged up all season and continues to be without its top two players in Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr.  These injuries have caught up to the Wolverines down the stretch as they have gone 2-7 in their last nine games overall.

Michigan is 0-6 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons.  Illinois is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.  These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on North Texas -1

The North Texas Mean Green (14-16) should be a much heavier favorite today against the Rice owls (11-19).  I'll gladly take advantage and back the Mean Green in what I fully expect to be a blowout in the opening round of the C-USA Tournament.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement.  North Texas is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Rice.  It won 75-65 at home and 66-63 on the road in the two meetings this season. 

The Mean Green shot 56.6% in the home win while the Owls shot 15-of-27 (55.6%) from 3-point range, yet the Mean Green still won that game by 10 points.  North Texas also shot 50.0% in the 3-point road win.  This is simply a terrible matchup for the Owls.

The Mean Green Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  North Texas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  Roll with North Texas Wednesday.

20* Big 12 Wednesday No-Brainer on Kansas State -1.5

The Kansas State Wildcats (15-16) will have a decisive home-court advantage over TCU (17-14) in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament Wednesday.  This tournament is being played in Kansas City, Missouri as it is every year.

The Wildcats impressed me quite a bit down the stretch.  They won their final three home games against the top three teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa State, so they are playing very well coming in.

TCU ended the season on a three-game losing streak, including a 13-point home loss to Iowa State and a 12-point road loss at Oklahoma State.  The Horned Frogs went just 4-14 in Big 12 play this season.  Two of their wins came against conference bottom feeder Texas Tech, while the other two were at home against Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

Kansas State is 5-1 against TCU in six meetings as Big 12 opponents.  The Horned Frogs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Bet Kansas State Wednesday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte PK

The Charlotte 49ers are certainly a team I've had my eye on this season due to their impressive non-conference play.  They have been a covering machine here down the stretch, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.

Middle Tennessee couldn't have had a much worse finish to the season, and it continues to be overvalued here.  The Blue Raiders are 2-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are 4-7 straight up during this stretch with their four wins coming against mostly conference bottom feeders.

Charlotte has impressed me against some good teams during its 6-3 ATS run.  It only lost by 4 at Old Dominion as 8.5-point dogs, by 5 at UTEP as 8-point dogs, and by 1 at home to LA Tech as 4.5-point dogs.  Those are arguably the three best teams in the conference, and the 49ers went toe-to-toe with them.

The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.  The Blue Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Middle Tennessee is 7-19 ATS in  its last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Charlotte Wednesday.

15* Horizon League Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin-Green Bay +4

Wisconsin-Green Bay (24-7) and Valparaiso (27-5) have been the two best teams in the Horizon League all season.  It's fitting that they'll be meeting in the conference championship game tonight, and I look for another tightly-contested battle.

The two regular season meetings both went right down to the wire.  Green Bay won 50-51 at home, while Valpo won 63-59 at home.  As you can see, the two were decided by a combined 5 points.  There's a good chance this 4-point spread comes into play again in the 3rd meeting, but I'm only taking the points for some insurance as I expect the Phoenix to win outright.

Valpo had a key injury happen in the semifinals when it lost Tevonn Walker to a knee injury.  Walker (10.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg) is doubtful to play tonight.  He was the only reason they beat Green Bay at home in their last meeting.  He scored 20 points as one of only two Valpo players in double figures.  He attacked the rim and made plays, but without him the Crusaders just aren't nearly as strong.

"Everybody has to step up. There's not one guy on our team that can replace what Tevonn gives us defensively and offensively," leading scorer Alec Peters said.  "You have to fight even harder when your teammate goes down."

The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Valpo is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Crusaders are 3-11 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three years.  Green Bay is 28-10 ATS in its last 38 road games with a total set of 120 to 129.5 points.  Take Green Bay Tuesday.

15* MAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois +6.5

Northern Illinois is certainly a sleeper in the MAC Tournament.  This is a team I have had my eye on quite a bit down the stretch as one that could make a deep run in the conference tournament with the way they have been playing of late.

The Huskies are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, but their solid play extends back even further.  They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They only lost by 4 at WMU as 6-point dogs and by 2 at CMU as 10.5-point dogs.  They beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs, WMU by 2 as 1-point home favorites, and Ball State by 4 as 1.5-point road favorites.

Akron is not playing well at all coming in and should not be a 6.5-point favorite here.  It is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming at home against Ohio.  Injuries have been a big reason for the poor play.  The Zips are expected to be without their top two scorers tonight in Pat Forsythe (10.7 ppg) and Noah Robotham (9.9 ppg), who have each missed some time down the stretch.

NIU is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.  NIU is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Huskies.  Take Northern Illinois Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -5

The Northern Iowa Panthers (29-3) are showing solid value as only 5-point favorites Sunday in the Missouri Valley Championship Game.  They would have been bigger favorites today had Illinois State (21-11) not upset Wichita State yesterday, which has the Redbirds way overvalued coming in.

This has been a one-sided series in recent meetings to say the least.  The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Redbirds, winning by 19 and 13 points at home, as well as 1-point on the road.  That's an average victory of 11 points per game in the last three meetings.

The Redbirds are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.  The Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.  The Panthers are 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. Missouri Valley.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -3

Iowa State (21-8) is going to the NCAA Tournament.  TCU (17-13) is not.  So Iowa State has a lot to play for as far as seeding.  A win would put the Cyclones in the No. 3 seed most likely which is a good spot for them.  If they lost they'll drop to a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, which would put them up against a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.  They are motivated for seeding reasons, obviously.

The Cyclones are 5-0 in their last five meetings with TCU.  They have won by 17, 11, 15, 34 and 13 points, so none of the five meeting were even close.  They have won by an average of 18 points per game, and all they have to do is win by 4 to cover this small spread Saturday.

TCU is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The Horned Frogs are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.  TCU is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -11.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes (20-10) are going to be in the NCAA Tournament.  While that fact might keep them less motivated than they would be otherwise, they are still going to have every reason to be motivated Saturday morning.

The Hawks want revenge for their overtime loss to Northwestern by a final of 66-61 on January 15th about two weeks ago.  They also want to perform well on Senior Night.  Those two factors have me knowing that they'll be motivated, and as long as they've motivated, they'll have no problem covering the 11.5-point spread here.

The Wildcats are 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1997.  Iowa is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 3 seasons.  The Hawks are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997.

The Hawkeyes are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Iowa is 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a S.U. win. Basically, if Iowa would have beaten Northwestern in the first meeting I wouldn't be on them as much.  But the fact that they lost keeps them motivated.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -15

Favorites of 6 points or more who come in on at least one day of rest are 124-78 (61.4%) ATS against opponents who are coming in off an ATS win and on no days of rest.  This situation has been a big money maker since 2006, and I'm going to follow it today.

Northern Iowa is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game this season.  The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring

25* MVC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +1

The Drake Bulldogs (9-21) take on the Bradley Braves (8-23) in a No. 7 vs. No. 10 battle in the opening round of the Missouri Valley Tournament tonight.  Both teams have poor records, but I certainly like the way the Bulldogs are playing in comparison to the Braves coming in.

While Drake is just 6-12 SU in MVC play this year, it is 10-6-2 ATS.  It has recent wins over Missouri State (73-48), Bradley (60-54), Southern Illinois (63-61), Evansville (70-65) and Bradley (69-57).  As you can see, the Bulldogs have swept the season series with the Braves, yet they are underdogs in the third and final meeting.

Bradley is 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has rarely been competitive, too, losing by 5 to Loyola, by 6 to Drake, by 13 to Illinois State, by 17 to Northern Iowa, by 3 to Missouri State and by 8 to Indiana State with three of those losses coming at home.

Bradley is 1-10 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Braves are 1-9 ATS in all road games in tournament games over the past three seasons.  Drake is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Bulldogs are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Bet Drake Thursday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Illinois -8

This game has everything you want about a GAME OF THE YEAR selection.  The Illinois Fighting Illini have numerous reasons to be motivated, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers have nothing to play for at this point and appear to have packed it in.

Illinois is currently listed on the "First Four Out" list by ESPN's Joe Lunardi in terms of the NCAA Tournament.  It obviously cannot afford to lose this game if its wants to go dancing.  That is the most obvious reason the Illini will be motivated.

Another is the fact that this is Senior Night for the Illini.  They have three senior starters in leading scorer Rayvonte Rice (16.3 ppg), Ahmad Starks (8.2 ppg) and Nnanna Egwu (6.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.8 bpg).  These players will go the extra mile to get these seniors one final home win.

The third and final reason the Illini will be motivated is because they want revenge from a 43-53 loss at Nebraska back on January 11th.  Rice did not play in that game as he was out with an injury, and the Illini shot just 27.3% from the field to hand the Huskers the victory.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more.

Nebraska is one of the worst road teams in college basketball.  It is just 1-10 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 10.5 points per game.  It has lost eight straight road games with seven of those losses coming by 8 points or more, and six by 11 or more.

Illinois is 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 17.7 points per game.  The Fighting Illini bounce back from three straight losses at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State and at Iowa with an emphatic 86-60 home win over Northwestern last time out.  They are clearly battle-tested coming into this game after playing such a brutal schedule.  They had won four straight prior to that 3-game skid against the Big Ten's best.

Nebraska really does appear to have quit.  It has lost six straight coming into this game with five of those losses coming by double-digits.  That includes back-to-back embarrassments at home to Iowa 46-74 and at Ohio State 57-81.  Players just aren't seeing eye-to-eye with head coach Tim Miles right now.

Illinois is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of its last game.  The Cornhuskers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Nebraska is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Illini are 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.  Bet Illinois Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE WEEK on Fordham -4

I believe I've found an absolute gem tonight in the Fordham Rams (9-18).  They take on the Duquesne Dukes (10-17) in what appears to be a meaningless game late in the season.  But I have no doubt the Rams will be the more motivated team, and they have clearly shown that here of late.

Fordham is 4-3 SU in its last seven games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games, yet it continues to get no respect from the books.  It has blowout home wins over Saint Louis (83-65), St. Joseph's (69-55) and LaSalle (63-48), while also beating George Mason (80-68) on the road for its four wins during this stretch.

The Rams have been just as impressive in the losses.  They only lost at UMass (74-82) as 9.5-point dogs, at Richmond (71-73) as 13.5-point dogs and at home against UMass (72-78) as 7-point dogs for their other three covers during this stretch.  Their only non-cover was a 57-76 loss at Davidson as 15.5-point dogs.  Well, Davidson is one of the best teams in the A-10.

Duquesne is one of the worst.  It is just 5-11 in conference play this season, and it has been blown out on the road time and time again.  In fact, the Dukes are 1-10 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 13.1 points per game.

The Dukes have lost each of their last 10 road games with the last nine coming by 8 points or more.  They lost at St. Bonaventure by 17, at LaSalle by 15, at UMass by 8, at Davidson by 26, at Richmond by 31, at George Washington by 15, at Saint Louis by 9, at Dayton by 26, and at Robert Morris by 16 in their last nine road games, respectively.

Home-court advantage has been pretty big in this series.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings.  This will be Senior Night for Fordham since it's the last home game of the season for the Rams, so that will add to the motivation for them tonight to get a win for their seniors.

Fordham is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  Duquesne is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last three years.  The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Add to that that the Dukes have lost nine straight road games by 8 points or more, and we have a perfect 28-0 system backing the Rams tonight.  Take Fordham Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Illinois -1.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies (12-15) are way undervalued right now due to their losing record on the season.  Well, they have been playing their best basketball of the season coming into this one, and I look for that to continue tonight against Western Michigan (17-11).

The Huskies will be highly motivated for their seniors as this is Senior Night.  Well, three of the Huskies' top six scorers are seniors, so it will mean more to this team than most.  Anthony Johnson (10.8 ppg), Jordan Threloff (8.2 ppg) and Aaron Armstead (7.3 ppg) are all seniors.

Northern Illinois will also be motivated to avenge not only a narrow 65-69 road loss to Western Michigan on February 14th, but also several close losses in a row in this series.  The Huskies have lost 10 in a row to the Broncos, but the last three have all come by 5 points or less.  I look for them to put an end to this skid tonight.

Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It beat Ball State 75-63 as 5-point home favorites, only lost to WMU by 4 as 6-point road dogs, lost to CMU by 2 as 10.5-point road dogs, lost to EMU by 8 as 2-point home favorites, beat Toledo by 2 as 11-point road dogs, and topped CMU by 18 as 4.5-point home dogs in its last six games overall.  Toledo and CMU are two of the best teams in the MAC, so beating both of them is no small feat.

The Huskies are 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  NIU is 13-2 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 19-9 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons.  NIU is 19-6-4 ATS in its last 29 MAC games.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

20* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Iowa State -5

The Iowa State Cyclones are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight for a couple of different reasons.  I believe the extra effort they'll be laying on the line to get this win will be enough to cover this generous 5-point spread against Oklahoma.

Iowa State has blown late leads in back-to-back games to lose to Baylor and Kansas State.  It now returns home for Senior Night, which is another reason these players will be extra motivated.  Those two factors will be huge for the Cyclones.

Another is the fact that Iowa State wants revenge from its 83-94 road loss at Oklahoma in the first meeting of the season.  The home team has won six straight in this series with all six victories coming by 5 points or more.

The Cyclones have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They had their 21-game home winning streak snapped against Baylor in their last home game.  That loss dropped them to 14-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 16.5 points per game.

Iowa State is 14-2 ATS in March home games since 1997.  The Cyclones are 14-3 ATS in home games off a close loss by 3 points or less since 1997.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oklahoma is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Ames.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on California -3

The Cal Golden Bears need a big finish to the season if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They'll likely need to win their final three games and their first game in the conference tournament to have any chance.  It starts today with a home win over Oregon State.

Cal is 16-12 on the season.  It has gone 10-7 at home this year.  It will be up against an Oregon State team that is 2-10 SU & 2-9 ATS in all road games in 2014-15.  The Beavers couldn't have been worse on the road this year.  They are 1-7 in Pac-12 road games with all seven losses coming by double-digits.

Cal has won each of its last four meetings with Oregon State.  The Beavers are 1-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  Cal if 14-3 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less after 15-plus games over the last 3 years.  Oregon State is 0-7 ATS in a road game when the total is 129.5 or less this season.  Bet Cal Sunday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 No-Brainer on Utah -1.5

In the biggest game of the season in the Pac-12 to date, the Arizona Wildcats (25-3) travel to face the Utah Utes (22-5) Saturday night.  I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially considering the Utes will be out for revenge from their 51-69 loss at Arizona in their first meeting this season.

It's Senior Night in Utah, which will only add to its motivation in this one.  The Utes have been simply unbeatable at home.  They are a perfect 16-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 26.1 points per game in the process.

In fact, the Utes have won 15 of their 16 home games by double-digits with the only exception behind a 1-point win over Wichita State.  They have won all eight Pac-12 home games by 15 points or more with wins over USC (by 24), UCLA (by 32), Colorado (by 25), Washington State (by 22), Washington (by 21), Stanford (by 16), California (by 15) and Arizona State (by 42).

Utah is 11-1 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 11-1 ATS after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last two seasons.  Utah is 38-12-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +9.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks (13-14) have no business being 9.5-point favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs (12-16) today.  I'll gladly side with the road underdogs in this one in a game they can clearly win outright.

The Gamecocks have been the single most overrated team in the SEC this season.  That's evident by their 4-11 SU & 2-13 ATS record in conference play this year.  Three of their four SEC wins came by 6 points or less, meaning they have only beating one SEC opponent by more than 9.5 points.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, has been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season.  It is 5-10 SU and 8-6 ATS in conference play.  In fact, it has gone 8-4-1 ATS in its last 13 SEC contests.  That includes outright road wins as underdogs against Auburn (78-71), Tennessee (71-66) and Missouri (77-74), as well as narrow road losses to Ole Miss (73-79) as 12.5-point dogs and 70-74 at Texas A&M as 10-point dogs.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (S CAROLINA) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 79-34 (69.9%) ATS since 1997.

South Carolina is 0-7 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Gamecocks are 0-8 ATS in home games versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games since 1997.  The Bulldogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  The Gamecocks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  South Carolina is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 SEC games.  These five trends combine for a 39-3 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +20

I have gone against Virginia each of its last five games.  Its best player in Justin Anderson has been out each of the last five games.  Anderson is the second-leading scorer on the team at 13.4 ppg.  He also shoots 48.0 percent from the field, 48.4 percent from 3-point range, and 80.6 percent from the free throw line.  Starting point guard London Perrantes is questionable to play today as well after missing the last game with a concussion.

The results of fading the Cavaliers in these five games have been great.  They are 1-4 ATS in those five contests.  They only beat NC State by 4 as 7-point road favorites, Wake Forest by 1 as 18-point home favorites, Pitt by 12 as 12.5-point home favorites, and FSU by 10 as 15-point home favorites.

The Cavaliers did cover their last game in a 70-34 blowout win at Wake Forest, but that result is what has them way overvalued here as 20-point favorites against VA Tech.  Also Virginia's 26-1 record and No. 2 ranking has it overvalued.  This team just isn't nearly as strong without Anderson and possibly Perrantes.

VA Tech took Duke to overtime in a 5-point loss as 165-point dogs last time out.  The Hokies have covered plenty of big numbers on the road this season, losing by 15 at Louisville as 22-point dogs, by 15 at UNC as 22-point dogs, by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs, and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs.  They also nearly upset Virginia at home on January 25th, losing 47-50 as 16.5-point dogs.  They will be out for revenge on the Cavalliers today, and they are fully capable of competing with them.

Plays on road teams road team (VIRGINIA TECH) - in a game involving two slow-down teams averaging 55 or fewer shots per game after 15+ games, after two straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 77-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

VA Tech is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound foes by 4-plus per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Hokies are 6-0 ATS after five straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 BAILOUT on Stanford -8

Stanford (17-9) is currently the first team on the "First Four Out" list that ESPN's Joe Lunardi puts out.  There's no question that teams follow his bracket predictions, and you can bet the Cardinal know that they need to impress down the stretch to get into the Big Dance.

Following back-to-back road losses to Utah and Colorado, the Cardinal responded with a 72-61 home win over California last time out.  They improved to 12-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per game.  Their only two home losses this season have come against the top two teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Utah.

Oregon State (17-10) stands little to no chance of making the big dance.  It is just 2-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in all road games this season, true and neutral.  It is getting outscored by an average of 8.7 points per game away from home as well.

The Beavers have really been poor on the road in conference play.  In fact, they are just 1-6 in Pac-12 road games with all six of those losses coming by double-digits.  They lost at Oregon 59-71, at Washington 43-56, at Arizona State 55-73, at Arizona 34-57, at UCLA 59-75, and at USC 55-68.

Oregon State is 2-9 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams with a +4 margin or better over the last two seasons.  The Beavers are 4-12 ATS in road games off an ATS win over the last two seasons.  Stanford is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win against a conference opponent over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 13.1 points per game in this spot.  The Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Roll with Stanford Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +15

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now, while the Purdue Boilermakers could not possibly be more overvalued.  This has created the perfect storm and a golden opportunity to back the Scarlet Knights as massive 15-point road underdogs against the Boilermakers.

Purdue has gone 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The betting public has obviously taken notice and will be quick to back them again.  Rutgers, meanwhile, has lost 11 straight while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team right now.

I look for the Scarlet Knights to actually be motivated in this game considering they want revenge from a 51-61 home loss to Purdue on January 12th exactly two weeks ago.  The revenge factor will help them get back up off the mat.  Purdue, meanwhile, is in a letdown spot off a big win at Indiana last time out, and with a game at Ohio State on deck.  The Boilermakers won't bring 100% focus to this game tonight.

Plays on an underdog (RUTGERS) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that it's usually a wise move to back a team on an ATS cold streak against a team on an ATS hot streak. 

Plus, the Boilermakers aren't the type of team to blow out opponents on a regular basis.  In fact, only one of their 10 Big Ten wins has come by more than 12 points.  The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in road games off two straight games with 12 or less assists over the last two seasons.  Rutgers is 51-32 ATS in its last 83 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take Rutgers Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming -6.5

The Wyoming Cowboys (21-6) should be a much heavier favorite tonight against the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-15).  I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this generous price as I fully expect a double-digit victory in the Cowboys' favor.

Wyoming is 16-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Fresno State is just 3-12 SU & 2-10 ATS in all road games this season.  Those records alone should have you all over the Cowboys tonight, but there's an even better reason to like them.

There may not be one player more important to his team in the entire country than Larry Nance Jr.  The Cowboys' forward leads the team in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.2 rpg) by a wide margin while shooting 54.8% from the field and 78.7% from the line.

Nance Jr. has been out of the lineup the past four games with a small case of Mono, and it's no wonder they have struggled.  They are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS without him.  They lost badly at Air Force by 23 and at San Diego State by 26 in their first two games without  him. 

They did beat San Jose State by 17 at home, but were 18.5-point favorites.  They also rallied from 14 down at half to beat Nevada by 6 on the road.  Getting that extra time without him should help these players, and now this will be an even more complete team when he returns.

Fresno State is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread this season.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog this season.  These two trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Cowboys.  Bet Wyoming Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -6.5

The Iowa State Cyclones (20-6) are a half-game out of first place behind the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 after back-to-back road wins at Oklahoma State and Texas.  They are obviously highly motivated to put and end to Kansas' run of 10 straight conference titles.

They will also be motivated to avenge a 73-74 loss at Baylor in their first meeting of the season back on January 14th.  They lost on a game-winning jumper by Kenny Chery with 4.7 seconds to go after taking the lead on a 3-pointer just seconds earlier.  They have not forgotten.

"A lot of people are not realizing how big that loss was, that hurt," guard Naz Long said. "That's definitely a game that we want to get back at home. We know we have to basically win out in order to win this league, and I feel like we're right there. So this is a huge game."

Iowa State has only lost at home twice since Fred Hoiberg arrived in Ames three years ago.  It has compiled a 61-4 home record since 2011-12, winning the last 21 by an average of 15.2 points.  The Cyclones are 14-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 18.3 points per game.

Iowa State is a perfect 12-0 at home against Baylor all-time in this series.  The Bears are 0-9 ATS in their last nine trips to Ames.  They have lost each of their last seven road meetings with the Cyclones by 8 points or more.  The home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings as well.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday.

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Drake -2

The Drake Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  But because they are 9-19 on the season, they aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers.  We'll take advantage and back them as small home favorites against Loyola-Chicago tonight.

The Bulldogs are a sensational 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The only three games where they didn't cover were on the road.  The Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  They beat Indiana State by 6 as 3-point dogs, lost to Illinois State by 8 as 9-point dogs, beat Evansville by 5 as 6.5-point dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 2 as 1-point dogs, beat Bradley by 6 as 2-point favorites, and crushed Missouri State by 35 last time out as 3-point favorites.

Loyola-Chicago may be 16-12 on the season, but it did most of its damage in the first half.  It has been a completely different story in Missouri Valley play here of late.  Indeed, the Ramblers are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.  Their poor play is mostly due to their best lpayer being out. 

Leading scorer Milton Doyle (11.5 ppg) has missed the past 11 games with an injury, which coincides with their 3-8 run.  Doyle shoots 49.2% from the field and 46.0% from 3-point range, so not having him has been a huge blow to the offense.  The Ramblers haven't topped 65 points in any of their last 13 games.  They've been held to 60 or fewer in 10 of those as well.

Drake only lost 47-50 at Loyola-Chicago as 12-point underdogs in their first meeting back on January 14th.  That was the last game that Doyle played in where he got injured.  The Bulldogs only shot 38.3% while the Ramblers shot 51.2%, yet they only lost by 3.  Drake will be out for revenge at home this time around, and I look for it to get it considering both teams are going in opposite directions right now.

Drake is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss against an opponent this season.  Drake is 6-0 ATS in home games off a game where they covered the spread this season.  The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Add in that Drake is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games overall, and we have a perfect 30-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Take Drake Wednesday.

20* College Hoops DOG OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +7.5

I have successfully faded Virginia in each of its last four games, and I'll do so again tonight.  It's no coincidence that this team is failing to meet expectations from oddsmakers considering it has been without its best player in Justin Anderson each of the past four contests.

Anderson was a preseason All-American candidate and for good reason.  He is second on the team in scoring at 13.4 points per game, and he shoots 48.0% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the line.  Starting point guard London Perrantes (4.4 assists/game) suffered a broken nose and a concussion in his last game and is questionable to play tonight as well.

Virginia is already overvalued due to its No. 2 ranking and 25-1 record on the season.  It is even more magnified without Anderson out.  Indeed, the Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won by 4 at NC State as 7-point favorites, by 1 at home against Wake Forest as 18-point favorites, by 12 at home against Pitt as 12.5-point favorites, and by 10 at home against FSU as 15-point favorites in their last four contests.

As you can see, Wake Forest played the Cavaliers tougher than anyone during this stretch, and as tough as anyone other than Duke, which is the only team to beat Virginia.  After losing 61-60 at Virginia as 18-point dogs on February 14th less than two weeks ago, the Demon Deacons know they can play with the Cavaliers, and they'll be out for revenge at home this time around.

Wake is 10-6 at home this season, winning each of its last three home games against VA Tech, NC State and Miami.  Virginia is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Demon Deacons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Wake Forest is 12-1 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 home meetings with Virginia, including 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings since 2005.  Bet Wake Forest Wednesday.

15* Texas A&M/Arkansas ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Texas A&M +7.5

The Texas A&M Aggies (19-7) are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  I look for them to give the Arkansas Razorbacks (22-5) a run for their money on the road tonight, likely pulling off the upset in the process.

The Aggies have gone 10-4 in SEC action to really put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  One of those four losses was an overtime loss to Kentucky, which proved what they were capable of.  They have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 SEC games as they continue to be undervalued time and time again.

There's  no question that the Razorbacks are overvalued right now due to their six-game winning streak coming in.  Well, two of their last three wins have come by a combined 5 points over Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and the other was a 15-point win against SEC bottom feeder Missouri as 17-point home favorites.

Texas A&M has some impressive road wins this season.  Indeed, it has gone on the road and beaten LSU 67-64 as 5-point dogs, Tennessee 67-61 as 3.5-point dogs, Auburn 71-61 as 2.5-point favorites, and South Carolina 62-52 as 3-point underdogs, among others.

The Razorbacks are in a massive letdown spot here.  Not only are they overvalued due to their six-game winning streak, but they also will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against No. 1 Kentucky on Saturday.  I don't expect the Razorbacks to give the Aggies their full attention as a result, which will work in our favor here.

Texas A&M beat Arkansas 69-53 as 2-point home underdogs in their lone meeting last season.  It has four starters back from that team, which is the biggest reason it is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State +15.5

I have successfully faded Virginia in three consecutive games.  They failed to cover in a 4-point win at NC State as 7-point favorites, in a 1-point home win over Wake Forest as 18-point favorites, and in a 12-point win over Pitt as 12-point favorites.  I'll fade them for a fourth straight games for essentially the same reasons.

Virginia is the No. 2 team in the country and 24-1 on the season.  It is overvalued due to that ranking and record, and the oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for the injury to their best player, Justin Anderson.  He has missed the last three games with a hand injury, and it's no coincidence they failed to cover all three. 

Anderson is their second-leading scorer (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), and he shoots 48% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He is simply irreplaceable, and the Cavaliers have been lost offensively without him.  He is an All-American candidate and one of the most underrated players in the country.

Florida State (15-12) continues to lack the respect it deserves from oddsmakers as 15.5-point underdogs today.  All the Seminoles have done here of late is go 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their three losses have come by a combined 13 points in a 4-point loss at UNC as 14.5-point dogs, a 6-point home loss to Clemson as 2-point favorites in their lone non-cover, and a 3-point home loss to Duke as 10.5-point dogs.

The Seminoles have gone on the road and beaten Clemson by 4 as 4.5-point dogs, VA Tech by 8 as 1-point favorites, and Georgia Tech by 4 as 4.5-point dogs.  They have also beaten Wake Forest by 6 as 4.5-point favorites, Miami by 1 as 2-point dogs, and Boston College by 9 as 6-point favorites at home during this stretch.  In fact, the Seminoles haven't been beaten by more than 13 points in any of their last 18 games.

Virginia did win all three meetings with Florida State last year, but all three came by 13 points or less.  The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Virginia is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game.  Bet Florida State Sunday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +15

The DePaul Blue Demons have been the single-most underrated team in all of the Big East this season in terms of the point spread. That's evidenced by the fact that they are a sensational 11-3 ATS in all Big East games.  They have gone 6-8 SU as well and are only getting outscored by 4.9 points per game in conference play.  They have only lost by more than 13 points twice in Big East action.

The Blue Demons are once again catching too many points here due to their last performance, coupled with Georgetown's last performance.  The betting public wants nothing to do with DePaul off their 27-point loss to Providence, while the public wants everything to do with Georgetown off its 22-point win over St. John's.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (DEPAUL) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 111-66 (62.7%) ATS since 1997.  This trend just goes to show that it's a very profitable move backing big underdogs off a huge ATS loss this time of year.

DePaul only lost by 6 to Georgetown as 7-point home underdogs, 72-78, on January 13th in the first meeting this season.  That places the Blue Demons in revenge mode, which I love.  DePaul has played Georgetown very tough on the road.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Washington DC.  The Blue Demons won 60-56 as 11-point dogs last season, only lost by 7 as 13-point dogs in 2013, lost by 11 as 22-point dogs in 2011, and lost by 8 as 17.5-point dogs in 2009.

The Blue Demons are 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  DePaul is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  These two trends combine for a 14-0 system backing the road team.  Also, the Blue Demons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Hoyas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Roll with DePaul Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Fordham +15

The Davidson Wildcats (18-6) have been going under the radar up to this point.  That's evident by the fact that they are 16-5 ATS in all lined games this season.  However, I believe the betting public has finally caught on, and now it's time to fade them while they're overvalued as 15-point home favorites over Fordham today.

Davidson is coming off a huge 65-63 road win over George Washington on Wednesday.  That fact alone sets it up for a letdown spot here.  It will have a hard time getting motivated to face an 8-16 Fordham team, especially with three straight games coming up against Atlantic 10 contenders Rhode Island, GW and VCU in its next three games.

Everyone has been sleeping on Fordham here of late.  The Rams have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost to UMass 72-78 as 7-point home dogs, beat St. Louis 83-65 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost to Richmond 71-73 as 13.5-point road dogs, beat St. Joseph's 69-55 as 2-point home dogs, and beat George Mason 80-68 as 5-point road dogs.  If that's not an impressive stretch, I don't know what is.  But, the oddsmakers still aren't giving them the respect they deserve with the 15-point spread they have set today.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (DAVIDSON) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against a home team (DAVIDSON) - a very good team (+8 PPG differential or better) against a poor team (-3.5 to -8 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a close win by 3 points or less are 33-11 (75%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Fordham Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Auburn +26

At 26-0 and with the No. 1 ranking in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats could not possibly be more overvalued right now.  They are also coming off two straight blowout wins and covers over South Carolina and Tennessee, only adding to the betting public's love for them.

The Wildcats had failed to cover five straight prior to their last two.  They only beat Missouri by 16 as 17.5-point favorites, Alabama by 15 as 19-point favorites, Georgia by 11 as 18-point favorites, Florida by 7 as 8-point favorites, and LSU by 2 as 10-point favorites.

Auburn comes in undervalued after having going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  This team has been competitive despite its 12-13 record on the season.  It has even gone on the road and beaten LSU 81-77 as 10.5-point dogs and Georgia 69-68 as 11-point dogs in the month of February.  In fact, Auburn's last seven losses have all come by 14 points or less.  Its largest loss in SEC play was a 20-point loss at Florida.

The Tigers have played the Wildcats very tough in recent years.  They are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They haven't lost by more than 24 to Kentucky in any of the last eight meetings.  Five of their last eight losses to Kentucky have come by 10 points or less, including a 64-56 loss to the Wildcats last year.  The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Kentucky.

Auburn is 10-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in home games after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games this season.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  They beat LSU and Georgia outright, while only losing to Alabama by 2 and Tennessee by 8.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion -1

In one of the most anticipated games in Conference USA this season, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (21-6) travel to face the Old Dominion Monarchs (19-6) on Saturday.  I'll gladly side with the home team laying the small number, especially with the way the Monarchs have played at home this season.

Indeed, Old Dominion is a perfect 14-0 straight up at home this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.8 points per game. It has beaten the likes of Richmond, VCU, Georgia State and Charlotte at home this year, so it's not like the Monarchs are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes at home.

All six of Louisiana Tech's losses this season have come on the road.  It has lost to the likes of LA-Lafeyette, North Texas and UAB on the road this season.  It is coming off a hard-fought 83-82 road win at Charlotte on Thursday, making this a tough two-day turnaround. 

The Monarchs are coming off a 64-38 win over Southern Miss Thursday, which allowed them to preserve their starters.  The Monarchs will be the fresher team as a result, and they'll want this game more.  They only lost by 5 at home to LA Tech last year, and now they have four starters back from that team who will want revenge.

The Monarchs are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Old Dominion is 12-2 ATS versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  LA Tech is 1-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  Combine this 6-0 trend with the fact that they're 14-0 at home this season, and we have a 20-0 system backing the Monarchs.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -2

The Texas Longhorns want revenge from an 86-89 road loss at Iowa State on January 26th in their first meeting of the season.  I like their chances of getting it at home this time around for a couple of different reasons.

Texas comes into this game playing great baseball.  It is 3-1 in its last four games overall with its only loss coming by a final of 69-71 at Oklahoma as 6.5-point dogs.  It has beaten Kansas State by 4 on the road, TCU by 23 and Texas Tech by 15 at home for its three wins during this stretch.

Iowa State is unbeatable at home, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  The Cyclones are just 5-6 in all road games this season, which includes neutral court games.  They have lost four of their last five road games to Oklahoma (by 11), Kansas (by 13), Texas Tech (by 5) and Baylor (by 1).  Their only two Big 12 road wins all year came at WVU and at Oklahoma State by a combined 7 points, so they are very close to being 0-6 on the road in conference play.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings in this series dating back to 2011.  Texas is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 home meetings with Iowa State.

Texas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Longhorns are 51-25 ATS in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse since 1997.  Take Texas Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Bowling Green -1.5

The MAC is easily one of the most underrated conferences in the country.  Bowling Green (17-7), Kent State (18-8), Akron (17-9), Buffalo (16-9), Central Michigan (19-5) and Toledo (17-9) are all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams.  It's a shame that likely only one of these teams will make the big dance.

I've seen Bowling Green play a couple times this year and have been very impressed.  I believe it should be a much heavier home favorite today over Buffalo.  The Falcons are 10-3 SU & 7-2 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.

The reason there is so much value here is because Buffalo is overvalued off its 15-point win at Eastern Michigan, while Bowling Green is undervalued off its 11-point home loss to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons had won four straight prior to that contest, including a road win at Central Michigan and a home win over WMU.  I look for them to get back to playing the way they were before.

Buffalo is just 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  This team has been overvalued on a regular basis, and it continues to be here Saturday.  The Falcons continue lacking the respect they deserve despite going a ridiculous 16-4 ATS in all games this year.  Head coach Louis Orr is doing a fine job, and it helps that he returned four starters from last year to this veteran squad.

Buffalo is 0-6 ATS after failing to cover 3 of its last 4 games this season.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series.  The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five Saturday games.  The Falcons are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Falcons.  Roll with Bowling Green Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on LSU -4

I don't normally like taking teams like LSU who have already beaten their opponent once this season.  But, given the circumstances, I'm willing to overlook the revenge factor for Florida and back the Tigers as small 4-point home favorites in the rematch.

LSU not only beat Florida, it dominated, winning 79-61 as 11-point road underdogs on January 20th.  I look for a similar beat down in the rematch as the Gators are just in a world of hurt right now, while the Tigers need this win badly.

LSU has lost four of its last six games overall to drop to 18-8 and on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Well, all four losses came by 6 points or less, including a 2-point home loss to Kentucky as 10-point dogs.  This is still the second-best team in the SEC in my opinion.

Florida has been overvalued all season due to what it has done in the past.  Well, this may be the worst team that Billy Donnovan has ever had.  The Gators are just 13-13 on the season, including 9-14 ATS in all lined games.

The biggest reason I'm backing LSU today is because Florida is without its two best players.  Leading scorer Michael Frazier II (13.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg) is out with an ankle injury, while second-leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith (12.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) has recently been suspended and will miss this game.  Their next-leading scorer is Eli Carter (8.2 ppg), so they are obviously short-handed today.

LSU is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last 3 seasons.  Florida is 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less this season.  The Gators are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  The Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  These four trends combine for a 34-5 system backing the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois-Chicago -1

This is a battle between two of the worst teams in the Horizon League in the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (10-16) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (7-20).  I'll side with the home team laying the small number here for a couple of different reasons.

For starters, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a terrible road team.  In fact, it has gone 0-11 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 17.9 points per game.  It has lost seven straight road games by double-digits to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 11, Valpo by 25, Oakland by 13, Detroit by 16, Cleveland State by 27, South Dakota by 24, and Arkansas by 30.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Illinois-Chicago comes into this game playing its best basketball of the season.  It has gone 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes impressive outright road wins as underdogs at Detroit (83-73) and Wright State (79-75).  It also played Valpo tough in a 5-point loss as a 10-point dog, and Cleveland State tough in an 8-point road loss as 14-point dogs.

The Flames will be out for revenge today from their 65-71 road loss to Milwaukee as 7.5-point dogs on January 29th just three weeks ago.  They'll be the more motivated team for sure.  Milwaukee could be in a hangover spot here from its tough 55-62 home loss to Valpo last time out in which it blew the game late.

Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season.  Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.  Illinois-Chicago is 9-0 ATS off two straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Flames.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -4

You won't find many teams in the country with a bigger home/away discrepancy than the Indiana Hoosiers.  They have not been good at all on the road, going just 3-7 in all games played away from home.  Inside Assembly Hall, it has been a completely different story.

Indiana is 15-1 at home this season where it outscoring opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.  It is coming off a 19-point home win over Minnesota on Sunday and I fully expect it to blow out the Purdue Boilermakers today.

The Hoosiers will be out for revenge from their 67-83 loss at Purdue on January 28th.  That was yet another blowout win for the home team, which is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings in this series, winning by 16, 18 and 28 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Purdue is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Assembly Hall.

Purdue comes into this game way overvalued due to going 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Well, four of those wins came at home, while two were on the road to Big Ten bottom feeders Northwestern and Rutgers.  They also lost to Minnesota 58-62 on the road during this stretch.  So, this run has been more due to a soft, home-heavy schedule than anything.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in home games against good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Matt Painter is 0-6 ATS in road games after being called for 10-plus less fouls than their opponent last game as the coach of Purdue.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing the Hoosiers.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +8.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers (24-2) have certainly been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  However, that's clearly not the case any more as this team is getting respect with their No. 11 national ranking.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are going to be very tough to live up to.

The Panthers barely covered on Sunday in a 68-57 road win at lowly Missouri State as 10.5-point favorites.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against an underrated Loyola-Chicago team that is starting to play some of its best basketball of the season.

The Ramblers have won three of their last four to improve to 16-10 on the season.  More impressively, they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 11 at Wichita State as 18.5-point dogs, lost by 3 to Illinois State as 3.5-point home dogs, beat Missouri State by 3 as 3.5-point road dogs, beat Southern Illinois by 4 as 3.5-point home favorites, and beat Bradley by 5 as 3.5-point road dogs.

I love taking teams in revenge mode after they played the other team tough in the first meeting, but lost.  That's the case here as Loyola-Chicago only lost by 9 as 11-point road underdogs to Northern Iowa on January 4th.  Now, they are 8.5-point home underdogs in the rematch.  That just shows you how overvalued Northern Iowa is because when you factor in 3.5 points for home court, this spread should only be UNI -4 based on the 11-point spread in the first meeting.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings between the Panthers and Ramblers dating back to 2005.  Northern Iowa is 2-12 ATS after leading its last game by 20 or more points at the half since 1997.  The Ramblers are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less this season.  Loyola is 14-4 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +12

The East Carolina Pirates have quietly been a covering machine here of late, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are showing excellent value once again tonight as double-digit road underdogs to the reeling Tulsa Godlen Hurricane.

The Pirates have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost to Tulsa 64-66 as 9.5-point home dogs, to Memphis by 12 as 14.5-point road dogs, beat Cincinnati by 4 as 10.5-point home dogs, lost to UConn by 13 as 14-point road dogs, beat UCF by 18 as 5-point home favorites, beat Memphis by 11 as 5.5-point home dogs, and lost to Temple by 13 as 13-point road dogs.

As you can see, the Pirates have played some of the best teams in the American Athletic down to the wire during this stretch.  That includes the 64-66 home loss to Tulsa, which means that the Pirates will be out for revenge in the rematch.  They aren't going to lose this game by more than 12 points having only lost to the Golden Hurricane by 2 at home.

Tulsa benefited from a very easy schedule in the first half of the season, and now it has been way overvalued here of late.  It is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes back-to-back losses to SMU by 11 at home and to Connecticut by 25 on the road.  This team is broken right now, and it won't be fixed in time to put ECU away by 13-plus points tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (E CAROLINA) - in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 60 points or less are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1997.  ECU is 10-2 ATS in February games over the last two years.  The Pirates are 6-0 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this season, coming back to win by an average of 8.7 points per game in this spot.  ECU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a S.U. loss.  The Pirates are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the Pirates.  Take East Carolina Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +12

Buzz Williams has done an excellent job in his first season at Virginia Tech.  This team was picked to finished at or near the bottom of the ACC coming into the season.  While it won't show up in the win-loss column, the Hokies have been ultra competitive in conference play.

Despite going 2-10 straight up within the ACC, the Hokies are a very profitable 8-4 ATS.  They upset Pitt and Georgia Tech at home, while also going on the road and covering against Louisville, UNC, Wake Forest and Syracuse.  They only lost by 3 at Wake Forest as 8-point dogs and by 2 at Syracuse as 11-point dogs.  They only lost by 3 at home to Virginia as 16.5-point dogs as well.

The Miami Hurricanes are 16-9 this season, but they have really struggled here of late.  They are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech as 9.5-point favorites, an 8-point home loss to Louisville as 4.5-point dogs, a 1-point loss at FSU as 2-point favorites, and a 2-point loss at Wake Forest as 2.5-point favorites.

What really stood out to me when looking into this game is the rest situation.  Miami played on Monday in an 89-86 (double OT) road win at Boston College.  It will have just one day off in between games, and the double OT factor will only magnify the short rest.  VA Tech will have had three days off in between games since losing at Clemson on Saturday.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 120-64 (65.2%) ATS since 1997.  Miami is 10-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.

Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The Hokies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  VA Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings, which have all been decided by 7 points or less, and by a combined 11 points.  These three trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Hokies.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Nevada -1

The average amateur bettor would see Wyoming (20-6) as an underdog to Nevada (8-16) and automatically take the Cowboys because of their record.  Well, there's a reason why the Wolf Pack are favored instead, and I believe they should be a much heavier favorite today.

Wyoming is playing without star forward Larry Nance Jr., who has missed the past three games due to Mono.  He is as important to his team as any player in the country.  Nance leads the Cowboys in scoring (16.3 ppg) and rebounding (7.2 rpg) by a wide margin as he is only one of two players scoring in double-figures.  He also shoots 54.8% from the field and 78.7% from the free throw line.

The loss of Nance Jr. has been felt in their last three games.  They lost 50-73 at Air Force as 1-point underdogs, 41-67 at San Diego State as 12-point dogs, and beat San Jose State 77-60 as 18.5-point home favorites, going 0-3 ATS in their three games without him.

I really like the way Nevada has been playing here of late.  Sure, it is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games overall, but it has gone 4-3 ATS during this stretch.  It only lost by 4 at Fresno State as 7.5-point dogs, to UNLV by 5 as 4-point home dogs, to Wyoming by 8 as 13.5-point road dogs, to San Diego State by 2 as 11-point home dogs, and to Utah State by 13 as 8-point road dogs.  It beat San Jose State 60-57 on the road and New Mexico 66-63 at home.

It's their last three home games that really stand out against three of the best teams in the MWC.  They only lost to UNLV by 5, San Diego State by 2, and beat New Mexico by 3 as stated before.  Those three results alone show me that the Wolf Pack are capable of beating Wyoming even if they had Nance Jr., but without him they surely will beat the Cowboys.

After all, the Wolf Pack played the Cowboys tough in their first meeting, only losing 55-63 on the road as 13.5-point dogs on January 31st.  Nance Jr. had a double-double in that contest, collecting 11 points, 10 rebounds and 4 steals.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings in this series.  Wyoming is 4-5 in true road games this year with its only wins coming against Montana State, San Jose State, Colorado State and Fresno State.

Wyoming is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 42% or less of their shots this year.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Wolf Pack.  Bet Nevada Tuesday.

20* Pitt/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +12.5

I've successfully faded Virginia each of their last two games with a 4-point win at NC State as 7-point road favorites, and a 1-point win over Wake Forest as 17.5-point home favorites.  It's no coincidence that I'm fading them again tonight for the same reason.  They remain without their best player, Justin Anderson.

Oddsmakers are once again failing to factor in how important Anderson is to this team as the Cavaliers are ridiculous 12.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh.  This will be his third missed game as he also sat out the NC State and Wake Forest games.  Anderson is second on the team in scoring (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  He shoots 48.0% from the floor, 48.4% from 3-point range, and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He is irreplaceable on this team.

The Cavaliers have had a hard time living up to their No. 2 national ranking and their 23-1 record here of late.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, time and time again being overvalued by oddsmakers.  They only beat VA Tech by 3 as 16.5-point road favorites, lost to Duke by 6 as 6-point home favorites, and beat Louisville by 5 as 6.5-point home favorites in their other three ATS losses during this stretch.

Pitt (17-9) has put itself right back into the NCAA Tournament discussion by winning four of its last five games overall.  It has beaten three of the better teams in the ACC in Notre Dame (76-72), Syracuse (83-77) and North Carolina (89-76) during this stretch, so it's not like the Panthers are beating up on a bunch of cupcakes.

Virginia won the ACC regular season title and the ACC conference tournament last year.  Well, nobody played the Cavaliers tougher than Pitt did.  They lost 45-48 at home to Virginia on February 2nd, and then 48-51 on the road in the ACC Tournament.  After two heartbreaking 3-point losses to the Cavaliers last year, you can bet that the Panthers will be out for revenge in their first meeting of 2015.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games, playing their 3rd game in a week are 74-41 (64.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Virginia is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 games off a close home win by 3 points or less.  Jamie Dixon is 33-19 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Pitt.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.  Bet Pitt Monday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on California +18

It has been a tale of three seasons for the California Golden Bears.  They opened 10-1 and looked poised to challenge Arizona for a Pac-12 Title.  Eight losses in nine games later, and they were left for dead.  But they have found their mojo once again over the last couple weeks.

Indeed, the Golden Bears are a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Washington State 76-67 as 2.5-point road dogs to start the streak.  They then won at Washington 90-88 as 6.5-points dogs, beat USC 70-69 as 7.5-point home favorites, topped UCLA 64-62 as 4-point home dogs, and upset Colorado 68-61 as 7-point road dogs.

Despite their recent solid play, they still continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  I'll gladly take advantage tonight and back them as massive 18-point road underdogs to the Utah Utes, who couldn't possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.

With a 19-4 record and the No. 11 ranking in the country, the Utes are getting a ton of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers right now.  They have created expectations for themselves that they simply cannot live up to, especially tonight as 18-point favorites against one of the hottest teams in the Pac-12.

California is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with Utah.  In six meetings as Pac-12 opponents, the Bears are 4-2 SU with their two losses coming by 4 and 10 points.  That 10-point loss even came in overtime.  While the Utes have one of the best teams they've ever had, asking them to win by 19-plus points to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

Plays against any team (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 131-72 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Cal is 13-3 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  The Bears are 46-22 ATS int heir last 68 road games after playing their last game as a road underdog.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet California Sunday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers come into this game with the Minnesota Golden Gophers highly motivated for a victory.  The Hoosiers have lost four of their last six games overall, including a heartbreaking 66-68 loss at Maryland last time out.  Well, all four of those losses came on the road, where the Hoosiers have struggled all season.

It has been a completely different story at home inside Assembly Hall for the Hoosiers.  Indeed, they are 14-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game.  They have beaten the likes of SMU, Pitt, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan at home this season.  This is a very generous 2.5-point spread given their success at home this year.

Minnesota was undervalued after a poor start to the season that featured several close losses.  However, it is now overvalued due to having won three straight coming into this one.  Well, two of those wins came at home against Nebraska and Purdue, while the other was a quality win at Iowa last time out.

The Gophers beat the Hawkeyes 64-59 on the road Thursday night.  That means they've only had two days off in between games to rest and prepare for Indiana.  The Hoosiers have had three days off since their 2-point loss at Maryland Wednesday.  I know it's not much, but that extra day of rest and preparation for the Hoosiers on such a short turnaround for both teams is a big advantage.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Minnesota and Indiana.  In fact, the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Indiana is 10-3 SU in all home meetings with Minnesota dating back to 1998.  Also consider that Minnesota is just 1-5 in Big Ten road games this season.  It has lost at Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State all by 3 points or more.

Plays against an underdog (MINNESOTA) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1997.  Minnesota is 0-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Indiana is 27-9 ATS in its last 36 home games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Golden Gophers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games.  Take Indiana Sunday.

15* Horizon League PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois-Chicago +14

This is one of my favorite situations in college basketball.  I like taking double-digit road underdogs in the rematch after losing to their opponent at home by single-digits in the first meeting.  That is the exact scenario here with Illinois-Chicago up against Cleveland State.

Illinois-Chicago lost the first meeting 69-74 to Cleveland State as 8-point home underdogs on January 4th.  The Flames only shot 37.1% and gave up 59.1% shooting to the Vikings, yet still only lost by 5 points.  They did so by outrebounding the Vikings 35-18 for the game, and 15-1 on the offensive glass.  I look for their ability to dominate the boards to come in handy once again in the rematch.

Not only will Cleveland State have a hard time being motivated enough to beat Illinois-Chicago by 15-plus points in the rematch, it will also be the more tired, less-prepared team in this one.  Cleveland State last played on Friday in a 65-66 loss at Detroit, giving it just one day in between games.  Illinois-Chicago has had two days off since a win at Wright State on Thursday.  That extra day off is huge when we're talking about such a short turnaround here for both teams.

I really love the way the Flames have been playing here of late.  They are undervalued due to their 7-19 record, but they have been playing much better than that record would indicate down the stretch.  The Flames are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

They only lost by 6 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee as 8-point underdogs and by 5 to Valpo as 10-point home dogs to start this stretch.  They have since gone on the road in their last two games to pull off back-to-back upsets over Detroit (83-73) as 9.5-point dogs and Wright State (79-75) as 7-point road dogs.  That's the same Detroit team that Cleveland State beat by 4 and lost to by 1 in their two meetings this season.

Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor rebounding teams who average 33 or less boards per game over the last two seasons.  The Flames are 8-0 ATS off two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher over the last two years.  Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS off a game where it made 50% or more of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Flames.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Sunday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +5.5

This game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Kansas State Wildcats Saturday is the ultimate 'buy low' and 'sell high' game.  We're going to 'buy low' on the Wildcats, who have lost five straight coming in.  We're going to 'sell high' on the Sooners, who have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

The clear value in this game is on the Wildcats as 5.5-point home underdogs based on the information I just presented.  The betting public is all over the Sooners because of their recent play, driving this line way out of whack.  At the same time, the betting public wants nothing to do with Kansas State.

Sure, the Wildcats have lost five straight, but there is reason to believe they can put an end to that streak.  Three of the five losses came by 6 points or less to WVU (twice) and Texas), which are two formidable opponents.  The other two came on the road at Kansas and Texas Tech.

Plus, Kansas State has been playing without its best player in Marcus Foster (14.0 ppg) for the past three games, but he's expected to return today against Oklahoma.  That's big because Foster hit the game-winning 3-pointer in overtime to beat the Sooners 66-63 on the road in their first meeting of the season back on January 10th.  Foster is averaging 17 points per game and has shot 10-for-18 from 3-point range in his last three games against the Sooners.

Oklahoma has won five in a row, but three of those games were at home, while the other two were on the road against TCU and Oklahoma State.  The Sooners are coming off a huge home win over Iowa State earlier this week, which sets them up for a letdown spot here.

Kansas State is 4-2 at home this season in Big 12 play with its two losses coming to Texas & West Virginia by a combined 10 points.  It has beaten TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma State at home this season.  The Wildcats' home-court advantage is no joke.  They are 124-23 over the past nine seasons at home, including 55-18 in Big 12 play.  Head coach Bruce Weber is 42-7 in home games in his K-State tenure, including 20-4 (.833) during Big 12 play.

The Wildcats have been a matchup nightmare for the Sooners in recent meetings.  In fact, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Sooners.  They have held Oklahoma to 66 or fewer points in four of those five meetings, and I look for their defense to keep them in this one as well.  They will be highly motivated to put an end to their five-game skid, which will only add to the defensive intensity.

Plays on home teams as an underdog or pick (KANSAS ST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Oklahoma is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Sooners.  Take Kansas State Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama -3

The Alabama Crimson Tide are showing some of the best value that they've shown all season today as only 3-point home favorites over the young, rebuilding Vanderbilt Commodores.  At 15-9 on the season, the Crimson Tide are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they won't be lacking any motivation tonight.

The reason Alabama comes in undervalued is because it is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games overall.  Well four of those six losses came on the road, while the other two came at home to Kentucky and Florida.  The Crimson Tide have held their own at home this season, going 12-2 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game.

The future is bright for Vanderbilt, but right now this team is just a mediocre 13-11 squad that has no business being only a 3-point road underdog to the Crimson Tide.  Vanderbilt has been a really tough out at home, but it's been a different story on the road.  The Commodores are 1-6 in true road games this season.  Their only road win came at Atlantic 10 bottom feeder Saint Louis, and they are 0-5 in SEC road games.

Vanderbilt is 37-59 ATS in its last 96 Saturday road games.  Alabama is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 home games following a game with 9 or less assists.  The Crimson Tide are 12-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the past two seasons.  Take Alabama Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest +17.5

I am looking for every opportunity to fade Virginia now that they are without their best player in Justin Anderson for four-to-six weeks due to a broken finger.  It worked in my first test on Wednesday as the Cavaliers failed to cover the spread as 7-point road favorites at NC State in a fortunate 51-47 victory.

Anderson is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He would be a star on any other team where he was asked to do more.  Anderson is second on the team in scoring (13.4 ppg), and he does a little bit of everything.  What's most impressive about him is that he shoots 48.0% from the field, 48.4% from 3-point range and 80.6% from the free throw line.  He will be missed greatly.

Virginia is already overvalued due to being the No. 2 team in the country with a 22-1 record.  It was already struggling to live up to expectations from oddsmakers, going 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Cavaliers won by 3 at VA Tech as 16.5-point favorites, lost to Duke by 6 as 6-point favorites, beat North Carolina on the road, only beat Louisville by 5 as 6.5-point favorites, and then beat NC State by 4 as 7-point road favorites.  It's no nearly impossible for them to live up to the expectations without Anderson.

Wake Forest is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Danny Manning.  The Demon Deacons have been highly competitive this season en route to a respectable 12-13 record.  They have a 9-point loss to Louisville, an 8-point loss to Duke, and a 3-point loss to Syracuse as they just do not get blown out.

In fact, the Demon Deacons haven't lost by more than 16 points since their first loss of the season to Arkansas.  So, they have gone 22 straight games without losing by more than 16 points.  They are 4-7 in ACC play with five of their seven losses coming by single-digits.  Don't expect the Demon Deacons to get blown out today, either.

That's especially the case with the way they are playing coming into this game.  They have won three of their last four games overall.  They beat Virginia Tech 73-70 at home, NC State 88-84 at home and Miami 72-70 at home.  They nearly pulled off upsets on the road in their two games before that, losing 57-59 at Clemson and 76-82 (OT) at Florida State.

Wake Forest is 6-0 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game this season.  The Demon Deacons are 8-2 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game this season.  Wake Forest is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Demon Deacons are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +17.5

I've made a killing fading No. 1 Kentucky here of late, and I'm going to do so again today as the oddsmakers and the betting public continue to overvalue them.  The betting public is always enamored with the No. 1 team in the country, especially one like the Wildcats who have a chance for an unbeaten season.

Fading Kentucky has indeed been a great move here of late.  It is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  It won by 16 at Missouri as 17.5-point favorites, by 15 at home against Alabama as 19-point favorites, by 11 at home of Georgia s 18-point favorites, by 7 at Florida as 8-point favorites, and by 2 at LSU as 10-point favorites.  Off such a huge win over LSU last time out, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Wildcats as well.

One of the biggest reasons the Gamecocks are catching so many points is because they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Well, this team was clearly overvalued after its 64-60 upset win over Iowa State in its final non-conference game.  That win gave the Gamecocks expectations that they haven't been able to live up to in SEC play.

Well, it's not like they haven't been competitive during their current 3-8 SU & 1-10 ATS stretch.  In fact, seven of their eight losses have come by 16 points or less, which is less than this 17.5-point spread.  Four of the losses came by 6 points or fewer as well.  This is still a very talented team that can beat anyone on any given day.

Kentucky will not only be in a letdown spot following the LSU win, but it will also have a hard time finding the motivation to beat a team that it already beat by 15 points once this season.  The Wildcats won 58-43 at South Carolina on January 24th.  The Gamecocks could not have played any worse. 

They shot 22.6% from the field, yet they still only lost by 15 points.  The Gamecocks will certainly fare better this time around.  They also outrebounded Kentucky 40-28 overall and 14-2 on the offensive glass.  That's a promising sign that they can win the battle on the glass again, which will help them stay within 17.5 points.

South Carolina is a sensational 29-13 ATS in its last 42 road games revenging a loss against an opponent by 10 points or more.  Kentucky is 4-13 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last three seasons.  John Calipari is 44-60 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more as the coach of Kentucky.  Roll with South Carolina Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State -1.5

The Michigan State Spartans certainly have not been dominant this season like they have been in year's past.  They currently sit at 16-8 on the season.  But, like almost every Tom Izzo team before this one, the Spartans have gotten better as the season has gone on.

The Spartans have won seven of their last 10 games overall, including an emphatic 68-44 road win at Illinois last time out.  It has also blown out Iowa by 14 on the road, Rutgers by 20 on the road, and Indiana by 20 at home during this stretch.  I look for Izzo's bunch to continue hitting on all cylinders today against Ohio State.

Michigan State is 10-3 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 15.1 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meetings as the home team has won four straight between the Buckeyes and Spartans.

The Buckeyes come into this game way overvalued due to having won five of their last six games overall.  Well, those six games have come against Northwestern, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers and Penn State.  Back-to-back blowouts over the latter two teams are what have them really overvalued here as only 1.5-point road underdogs.

The Buckeyes have not fared very well away from home this year.  They are just 3-4 in true road games.  Their only three road wins came at Minnesota (74-72, OT), at Northwestern (69-67) and at Rutgers, so they haven't beaten anyone of any relevance on the road, and two of them were lucky close wins.  They have also been beaten at Louisville, at Indiana, at Iowa and at Purdue.  Simply put, they're not nearly as good of a road team as they are a home squad.

One small factor to consider here is that Ohio State last played on Wednesday giving it two days off in between games, while Michigan State last played on Tuesday giving it three days off.  This will also be the 3rd game in a week for the Buckeyes.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing their 3rd game in a week are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Michigan State is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16-plus assists per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  Ohio State is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.  The Buckeyes are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

25* Horizon League GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso -2.5

The Valparaiso Crusaders (22-4) and Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (20-5) are tied for first place in the Horizon League standings.  Which ever team wins this game will likely go on to win the title.  My money is on the slight 2.5-point home favorite Crusaders to get the job done.

This will be a rematch from a 51-50 home win by the Phoenix back on January 23rd.  Obviously, the Crusaders showed they could hang with the Phoenix on the road in that game, and now I fully expect them to have their revenge at home this time around.  After all, the home team has won eight of the last nine meetings with Valpo going 4-0 at home during this stretch.

The Crusaders have won nine of their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming at Green Bay by a single point.  They have been virtually unbeatable at home this season, going 11-1 while outscoring opponents by an average of 14.5 points per game.  Green Bay is a mediocre 5-4 in true road games this year.

What really intrigues me about the Crusaders tonight is that they'll be the more rested, more prepared team.  That's because they last played on February 8th against Oakland, giving them four days off in between games.  Green Bay, meanwhile, last played on Wednesday in a narrow 63-62 win at Youngstown State as 11.5-point favorites.  So, the Phoenix have only had one day in between games to get ready for the Crusaders, which is a huge disadvantage.

Green Bay is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three straight wins over conference opponents.  Valparaiso is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 Friday games.  The Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. win.  The Crusaders are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Bet Valparaiso Friday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Loyola-Marymount +24.5

With a 24-1 record and a No. 3 ranking, the Gonzaga Bulldogs have created expectations from the betting public and the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  That has certainly been the case here of late, and it is again tonight as 24.5-point favorites over Loyola-Marymount.

The Bulldogs are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They have been double-digits favorites in all nine games, but not once more than a 24.5-point favorite like they are tonight.  Eight of their last nine wins have come by 22 points or less as well.  They aren't going to be motivated at all to face Loyola-Marymount tonight.

The Lions are just 8-17 on the season, so they obviously don't get much respect from the betting public or the oddsmakers.  But, they have been more competitive than their record would suggest.  They have been a real money-maker on the road, going 3-10 SU but 9-4 ATS.

Only one of Loyola's 17 losses this season has come by more than 24 points.  It has been a real profit machine here of late, going 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 9-point loss at San Diego as 10-point dogs,, a 13-point loss at BYU as 21-point dogs, a 12-point home win over Portland as 4-point dogs, a 3-point loss at Santa Clara as 5.5-point dogs, a 1-point win at San Francisco as 9-point dogs, 5-point win at Pacific as 3.5-point dogs, and a 9-point win over San Diego as 3-point home dogs.

Loyola hasn't lost by more than 18 in any of its last 15 games overall.  That includes a 17-point home loss to Gonzaga as 19.5-point dogs on January 17th.  Having already beaten the Lions by 17 this season, I just don't see the Bulldogs bringing the effort it's going to take to put them away by 25-plus the second time around.  After all, each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 19 points or less.

Plays on road underdogs of 20 or more points (LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival are 82-42 (66.1%) ATS since 1997.  Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games this season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Loyola is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  Gonzaga is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a losing record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Lions.  Take Loyola-Marymount Thursday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +11

The Utah Utes are certainly one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have gone 18-4 up to this point, including a perfect 13-0 at home this season.  With these records and the No. 11 ranking in the nation comes expectations from the oddsmakers that this team is going to have a tough time living up to going forward.

Utah has no business being a double-digit favorite over a Stanford team that is 16-7 on the season and in prime position to make the NCAA Tournament.  This 11-point spread would indicate that the Utes are roughly 7 points better than Stanford on a neutral court, and I'm just not buying it.

Stanford is very close to being a 20-win team right now.  Five of its seven losses have come by 7 points or less, including four by a combined 10 points.  Only once all season has it lost a game by more than 11 points, and that fact alone shows you that there is some value in backing them here.

Stanford has Utah's number, too.  It has won four of five meetings with the Utes as Pac-12 opponents dating back to 2012.  Its only loss came by a single point at Utah 58-57 back in 2012.  The Cardinal have outscored the Utes by a combined 52 points in those five meetings.

Plays against a favorite (UTAH) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 105-57 (64.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Stanford is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 vs. slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots per game.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with Stanford Thursday.

25* Summit League GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -2.5

There's a reason that the 17-7 North Dakota State Bison are underdogs to the 10-13 Denver Pioneers tonight.  That reason is because the Pioneers have one of the best home-court advantages in the entire country, and they have for years.

The high altitude in Denver gives the Pioneers and advantage, similar to what it does for the Broncos in the NFL and the Nuggets in the NBA.  It's just a proven fact that it's an advantage because they are used to playing in altitude, while opposing teams are not and tend to get tired a lot faster as a result.

Denver has gone 9-4 at home this season compared to 1-9 on the road.  It has won each of its last three home games in impressive fashion, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 14, Oral Roberts by 7, and Western Illinois by 14.  It has also beaten South Dakota State and St. Joseph's at home recently.

North Dakota State is not as dominant as it has been in year's past as it returned just two starters this year.  This is still a quality team, but one that has proven to be vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, NDSU is 4-6 in true road games this season.

Denver will be out for revenge from a 54-61 (OT) loss at North Dakota State on January 29th only two weeks ago.  It will have its revenge as the home team has been dominant in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between NDSU and Denver since 2004.

The Bison are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.  NDSU is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.  The Pioneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  NDSU is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.  The Pioneers are 60-36 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.  Bet Denver Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +9.5

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Air Force Falcons their due respect tonight.  Getting them as 9.5-point road underdogs to the Boise State Broncos is an absolute gift from oddsmakers, and we'll take advantage.

Air Force is just 11-12 on the season, but 10-7 when leading scorer Max Yon has played.  He missed six games right in the middle of the Mountain West season, and it's no surprise that the Falcons went 1-5 without him.  Yon averages 14.2 points per game, and the second-leading scorer averages 10.0 per game, so he is simply irreplaceable for them.

It's no surprise that the Falcons are 2-0 since Yon returned from injury.  They beat New Mexico 53-49 as 4-point home underdogs before crushing Wyoming 73-50 as 1-point home favorites last time out.  The injury to Yon has been a blessing in disguise because different players have had to step up with more minutes.  It has made this a much more balanced team now.  In fact, six different players scored at least 7 points in the 23-point win over Wyoming last time out.

Boise State could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It is certainly time to 'buy low' on Air Force and 'sell high' on Boise State right now. 

That's especially the case considering the Broncos are in a massive letdown spot here after their huge 61-46 win over MWC Title favorite San Diego State on Sunday.  Plus, Air Force will be out for revenge from a 68-77 home loss to Boise State on January 24th.  The Falcons were playing without Yon in that game.  The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Falcons a second time.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (AIR FORCE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off two or more consecutive home wins are 53-24 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boise State is 1-11 ATS in home games versus excellent ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  These two trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the Falcons.  Roll with Air Force Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +7

The No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (21-1) are clearly one of the best teams in the country.  However, with that 21-1 record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  We're seeing it with undefeated Kentucky, and we'll be seeing it with Virginia as well.

The Cavaliers struggled to put away NC State in the first meeting between these teams, winning 61-51 as 14-point home favorites.  The Wolfpack will clearly be out for revenge in the rematch, and I look for them to not only cover as 7-point home dogs this time around, but to likely win this one outright.

Virginia has a two-game lead in the loss column over Duke in the ACC, so it can actually afford a loss here.  Now, the Cavaliers are without arguably their best player in Justin Anderson, who suffered a broken finger in his left shooting hand in Saturday's 52-47 home win over Louisville.

While many folks may not have heard of Anderson, this guy is an absolute stud and one of the most underrated players in the country.  He is second on the team with 13.4 points per game and first in the conference at 48.4 percent from 3-point range.  You just don't replace a guy like Anderson.

The Wolfpack (14-10) are squarely on the bubble right now in terms of the NCAA Tournament, and another win over a top-10 team would go a long way.  NC State beat Duke 87-75 at home four days after the loss in Virginia.  Including an overtime loss on January 25 to then-No. 8 Notre Dame, the Wolfpack have won four of seven in Raleigh against top 10 opponents.  They also had a 2-point home loss to UNC, so they have proven they can play with the ACC's elite at home this year.

NC State is a perfect 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by an average of 4.1 points per game in these situations.  The Wolfpack are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.  NC State is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +12.5

Quietly, the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-9) have been playing some of the best basketball in the Big Ten over the past couple weeks.  Yet, the betting public and the oddsmakers continue to give them no respect as 12.5-point road underdogs to the Ohio State Buckeyes tonight.

The Nittany Lions are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The lost by 6 at Michigan State as 12-point dogs, beat Rutgers by 28 as 7-point home favorites, beat Minnesota by 5 as 1.5-point home dogs, lost at Illinois by 2 as 6-point road dogs, lost at Maryland by 6 as 7.5-point road dogs, and beat Nebraska by 13 as 4-point home favorites during their six straight covers.

However, the Nittany Lions have really been competitive all season within the Big Ten.  While they are just 3-8 within the conference, seven of those eight losses have come by 9 points or less.  The only exception was a 17-point loss at Wisconsin as 18.5-point underdogs in the Big Ten opener, and they even covered the spread in that game.

Ohio State comes into this game way overvalued due to having won four of its last five games overall, which includes double-digit wins over Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.  The Buckeyes beat Rutgers by 19 on Sunday, meaning they only have two days of rest in between games.  Penn State last played on Saturday, so it will have three days off coming in, and that one extra day is a big advantage on a short turnaround.

There is one key loss here for the Buckeyes that I don't believe is getting factored into the line at all.  Second-leading scorer Marc Loving (11.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg) has been suspended for an undisclosed number of games.  Loving shoots 49.1% from the field and 53.2% from 3-point range, so his ability to space the floor for the Buckeyes has been absolutely huge.

With four starters back from last year's team that swept the season series with Ohio State, the Nittany Lions certainly have the confidence to pull off the upset again today.  They won 71-70 as 13-point road dogs, and then came back with a 65-63 home win as 5.5-point dogs in their two meetings with the Buckeyes last year.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (PENN ST) - after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games, with four starters returning from last season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season, only losing by an average of 2.3 points per game in this role.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -2

The Temple Owls (17-7) are a much different team today than the one that lost to Cincinnati 53-84 on the road on January 17th.  They have gotten fully healthy since, and they have been on an absolute tear as a result.

The Owls are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  That includes a 25-point home win over South Florida, a 24-point road win at UCF, an 18-point home win over Tulane, a 13-point road win at South Florida, and a 1-point road win at Memphis.  Now, the Owls will be out for revenge from their worst loss of the season to the Bearcats, and I fully expect them to get it at home tonight.

After all, Temple is 10-2 at home this year where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Its only two home losses came to arguably the top two teams in the AAC in Tulsa and Tulane by a combined 12 points.  Cincinnati is just 3-4 in true road games this season.  It has lost to UConn, Memphis and ECU on the road within AAC play.

The Bearcats are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games.  Cincinnati is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AAC foes.  Take Temple Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +10

The LSU Tigers are exactly the type of team that has what it takes to upset the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats tonight.  This is one of the most underrated teams in the country at 17-6 on the season.  I like their chances of giving the Wildcats a run for their money because of how they are built.

The Tigers actually have the two big men that can stand up to Kentucky's two big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, who just dominate most teams.  They won't be dominating LSU's Jordan Mickey (17.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 3.6 bpg) and Jarell Martin (16.0 ppg, 9.0 rpg).

The Wildcats have been vulnerable at times this season.  They needed overtime to beat both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and they are coming off a 7-point win at Florida where they trailed the majority of the game but pulled away late.  Remember, LSU beat Florida 79-61 on the road on January 20th.

The Tigers are 11-2 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Their two home losses came by a combined 8 points.  The home team has won five straight in this series.  Four of the last five meetings between Kentucky and LSU have been decided by 9 points or fewer, including three by 5 points or less.

LSU is 53-28 ATS in its last 81 games off a home win over a conference opponent.  Kentucky is 9-19 ATS in road games over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet LSU Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma ESPN Monday No-Brainer on OVER 147.5

I am pretty certain that tonight's game between the Iowa State Cyclones and Oklahoma Sooners is going to be a shootout.  These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the conference, and their recent meetings have been very high-scoring.

The Cyclones average 79.9 points per game on 48.9% shooting this year.  They look to push the ball every chance they get.  The Sooners are averaging a respectable 72.2 points per game on 44.9% shooting, but keep in mind they played a very tough non-conference schedule.

The OVER is 7-1 in Iowa State's last eight games overall.  They have combined with their last eight opponents for 147, 167, 148, 151, 175, 149, 165 and 113 points.  Oddsmakers just can't set the totals high enough for them, and they have failed to do so again tonight.

As stated before, this has been a very high-scoring series.  The Cyclones and Sooners have combined for 147 or more points in eight of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged 154.8 combined points per game in their last nine meetings.  They combined for 169 and 156 points in their two meetings last year.

The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  The OVER is 53-25-1 in Cyclones last 79 games overall.  Iowa State is 9-0 to the OVER vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% or less after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 18-2 in Iowa State's last 20 games versus good defensive teams that have allowed 42% or less shooting after 15-plus games.  Oklahoma is  7-0 to the OVER in home games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -6

The Baylor Bears are easily one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They continue to get better and better with each game, and I look for them to blow the Oklahoma State Cowboys out of the building tonight at home.

The Bears have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall right in the heart of their Big 12 schedule.  Their lost four wins could not have been any more impressive.  They beat Oklahoma by 11 at home, Texas by 23 at home, TCU by 20 at home, and West Virginia by 18 on the road.  If that's not an impressive run, then I don't know what is.

Yes, their lone loss over their past five games came at Oklahoma State by a final of 53-64, but that will actually work in their favor here because they'll be out for revenge.  Meanwhile, this is a huge letdown spot for the Cowboys not only because they have already beaten the Bears, but also because they are coming off their biggest win of the season Saturday in a come-from-behind 67-62 home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks.  It's only human nature for them to let up off such a big win.

Baylor is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 17.3 points per game.  Its only home loss this year came to Kansas by a single point 55-56.  Oklahoma State is just 2-5 in true road games this season.  It has lost to South Carolina by 26, Kansas by 10, Oklahoma by 17 and Kansas State by 10 in four of its five road losses.

Baylor is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Oklahoma State since 2007.  It has won its last eight home meetings by 6, 10, 41, 19, 13, 6, 8, and 4 points.  As you can see, each of the last seven wins came by 6 points or more, and by an average of 14.7 points per game. 

The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  The Bears are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Baylor.  The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Bears are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Oklahoma State is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Bet Baylor Monday.

15* Michigan/Indiana Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  They have gone 16-7 on the season to put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have done so behind one of the best offenses in the nation.

Indeed, the Hoosiers are putting up 80.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting this year, including 40.9% from 3-point range, which is a ridiculous percentage for a team.  Shooting the 3-ball is going to work to Indiana's advantage because their opponent plays zone defense.

Star freshman James Blackmon Jr. missed Indiana's last game against Wisconsin with an ankle injury.  He leads the team in scoring (16.5 ppg) and is second in rebounding (5.2 rpg), so it was a big loss for them.  Blackmon Jr. is expected to return today.  I just do not believe the Michigan Wolverines have the firepower to keep up with the Hoosiers in this one.

Michigan is without two of its top three scorers in Caris LeVert (14.9 ppg) and Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 ppg).  Zak Irvin (13.2 ppg) is the only healthy Wolverine left who is averaging more than 6.2 points per game.  That's bad news for Michigan today as they are going to have to put up points to hang with the high-powered Hoosiers.

Indiana has been virtually unbeatable at home this season.  It is 13-1 inside Assembly Hall where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.7 points per game.  It is 4-0 at home within the Big Ten with wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers.

Michigan did pretty well for a stretch there without LeVert, but it is also without Walton Jr. now, and this team is going to continue to struggle because they don't have the talent to make up for it.  They lost by 10 at Michigan State and then by 18 at home to Iowa last time out.  I believe more losses like that one to the Hawkeyes are going to be the norm for them going forward.

The Hoosiers have a big advantage in rest and preparation heading into this one.  They have had four days off since losing at Wisconsin 78-92 on Tuesday.  They will also be motivated or a win after losing three of their last four with all three losses coming on the road.  The Wolverines have only had two days of rest in between games since losing to Iowa 54-72 on Thursday.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Hoosiers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings with the Wolverines, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings.  The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Indiana Sunday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +15.5

At 16-6 on the season, including 12-1 at home, the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting a lot of love from the betting public right now.  At 7-16 on the season, including 1-9 on the road, the betting public wants nothing to do with the South Florida Bulls at this point in the season.  These perceptions have created a ton of line value for pouncing on the undervalued Bulls today.

This is an awful spot for Cincinnati.  It is coming off a huge upset road win at SMU on Thursday, winning 62-54 as 6.5-point underdogs.  Off such a big win, and with a big game at Temple on deck, the Bearcats are in a prime spot for a letdown here against lesser competition.  They won't be motivated at all to face South Florida.

Plus, the Bearcats are a tired, unprepared team for this game.  They played on Thursday, meaning that they have just one day of rest and preparation to get ready for the Bulls.  Meanwhile, South Florida last played on Wednesday, giving them two days to prepare for the Bearcats.  I know it's only one day extra, but on such a short turnaround, one day can be huge.

The Bulls have been pretty competitive this season, especially here of late, despite their poor record.  Each of their last four losses have come by 13 points or less as they've gone 3-1 ATS.  They lost at UConn by 13 as 14-point dogs, at home to SMU by 11 as 11.5-point dogs, at Tulsa by 7 as 14.5-point dogs, and at home against Temple by 13 as 7.5-point dogs in their last four games, respectively.  After playing that gauntlet of a schedule, they are certainly battle-tested and ready to face a team like Cincinnati tonight.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less.  USF won 46-45 as 2-point home favorites in 2012, lost 53-61 (OT) as 12.5-point road dogs in 2013, lost 54-61 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013, and lost 45-50 as 15.5-point road dogs in 2014.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick (CINCINNATI) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 48-22 (68.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Florida is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last two years.  The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  The Bulls are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +13

The DePaul Blue Demons are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country this season.  Head coach Oliver Purnell finally has his players in place and an experienced bunch with four starters back from last year's team.

The Blue Deamons have gone a respectable 12-12 this season.  However, they have really stepped up their play in Big East action.  They are 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS in all Big East games this year.  They barely didn't cover in the two games they failed to do so, losing by 11 at Providence as 10-point dogs and by 13 to Villanova as 11.5-point dogs.

DePaul has beaten Marquette by 3 as 5-point home dogs, Xavier by 3 as 10.5-point home dogs, Creighton by 10 as 10-point road dogs, St. John's by 4 as 6-point home dogs, Seton Hall by 4 as 9.5-point road dogs, and Seton Hall by 13 as 3-point home dogs.  The Blue Demons have only lost one of their 11 Big East games by more than 13 points, which was a 17-point loss at Villanova as 21.5-point dogs.  That stat alone makes for a 10-1 system backing them pertaining to this 13-point spread.

Butler is a quality team at 17-6 on the season.  However, that record has been bolstered by several close wins this year.  In fact, eight of Butler's 10 Big East games have been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Six of its last nine games have actually been decided by 4 points or less.  I look for this contest to go right down to the wire as well.

Home-court advantage meant nothing between these teams last year.  The road team went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  DePaul won at Butler (99-94, OT) as 9-point underdogs.  Butler returned the favor with a 79-46 road win in the rematch with the line set at a pick 'em.

The Blue Demons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season.  The Blue Demons are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  DePaul is 6-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this year.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Blue Demons.  Take DePaul Saturday.

20* Baylor/WVU Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -4

The West Virginia Mountaineers (18-4) are one of the most improved teams in the country.  They aren't getting the respect they deserve as only 4-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today.  I'll take advantage and back them at this short price in what I fully expect to be a blowout in favor of the home team.

The Mountaineers come into this game highly motivated for a victory following an ugly 52-71 loss at Oklahoma on Tuesday.  Bob Huggins was not pleased with his team as he emptied his bench and 11 different players saw double-digit minutes.  I look for the starters to get the memo and to respond to Huggins in a big way today.

West Virginia is 8-2 at home this season where it outscoring teams by an average of 16.8 points per game.  The Mountaineers have a huge home-court advantage within the Big 12 because it's such a far trip for the road teams within the conference.  It has beaten the likes of Oklahoma (by 21, Texas Tech (by 19) and VA Tech (by 31) at home this year.  Its two home losses have come by a combined 3 points.

Baylor is also an improved team this year, but one that has done most of its damage at home.  The Bears are 13-1 at home compared to 3-3 in true road games.  They have lost to Oklahoma (by 10), Kansas State (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 11) on the road in Big 12 play.  They are just 1-3 on the road within the conference with their only win coming at lowly TCU (by 7).

Scott Drew is 9-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent as the coach of Baylor.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  WVU has also had an extra day to prepare for this game after last playing on Tuesday, while Baylor last played on Wednesday.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on SMU -6.5

The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country.  They currently sit at 18-4 and are riding an eight-game winning streak that has seen seven of those eight victories by 9 points or more.  Their last loss was a 50-56 setback at tonight's opponent, Cincinnati, so the Mustangs won't be lacking any motivation as they'll be out for revenge.

SMU is 13-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.3 points per game.  It is 9-1 within the conference, outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game.  This may be the best team in the AAC as it's a toss-up between the Mustangs and Tulsa.

Cincinnati is a quality squad at 15-6 on the year.  However, it has done most of its damage at home, where it is 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road, where the Bearcats are 2-4 in true road games.  They have lost three of their last four.  They lost by 6 at UConn as 4.5-point dogs, by 13 at Memphis as a pick 'em, and by 4 at East Carolina as 10.5-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series over the last two seasons.  The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  SMU beat Cincinnati 76-55 at home last year as 4-point favorites.

The Bearcats are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Cincinnati is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games.  The Mustangs are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight home games.  Plays against road of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS since 1997.  SMU is 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last two seasons.  The Mustangs are 11-1 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last two seasons.  Take SMU Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +11.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-11) have gotten better as the season has gone on under head coach Jason Capel.  He had the luxury of returning four starters from last year's team, and this experience is finally starting to pay off in recent weeks.

Appalachian State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  All four wins were very impressive.  It beat Georgia State by 5 as 11.5-point home underdogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, South Alabama by 11 as 4-point home favorites, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road underdogs.

The reason the Mountaineers are catching so many points here is because they are coming off an ugly 37-point loss at Georgia Southern last time out.  Well, Georgia Southern is 9-0 at home this season, and that was simply as bad as the Mountaineers could play.  I look for them to get back to the way they were playing during their four-game winning streak prior against lesser competition tonight in Louisiana-Lafayette.

The Rajin' Cajuns are just 12-10 this season and have taken a big step back from last year after losing their star player to the NBA. While they did get off to a solid 10-5 start this year, it has been all downhill ever since.  Lafayette is 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  That includes home losses to South Alabama by 7 as 13-point favorites and Louisiana-Monroe by 2 as 7-point favorites.

Yes, Louisiana-Lafayette did beat Appalachian State by 16 on the road in the first meeting this season back on January 5th.  Well, that was back when the Rajin' Cajuns were playing solid basketball, while the Mountaineers were looking to find their footing.  I expect Appalachian State to be out for revenge in this one.

The Mountaineers have actually played their best basketball on the road this year.  They are a respectable 5-8 in true road games. They beat Virginia Tech by 2 as 18-point road dogs, beat Jacksonville by 11, only lost to Georgia Tech by 13 as 17-point road dogs, lost to Charlotte by 10 as 15-point road dogs, and played Alabama to a 1-point game as 18-point road dogs.  They also beat Arkansas State by 1 as 8-point road dogs, Troy by 5 as 4-point road dogs, and Texas State by 6 as 7-point road dogs.  If that's not evidence that this team has played well on the road, then I don't know what is.

Appalachian State is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The Mountaineers are 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog over the last three years.  Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (APPALACHIAN ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in February games are 109-61 (64.1%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Southern +4

The Georgia Southern Eagles are arguably the most underrated team in the entire country.  This was the case for this program in football this past season, and it has carried over to their basketball team as well.

The Eagles are 15-4 this season with their only four losses coming to Illinois by 9 as 22.5-point road dogs, UCF by 2 as 4-point road dogs, Texas-Arlington by 1 as 4-point road dogs, and Troy by 4 as 5.5-point road favorites.  The Eagles are a sensational 11-1-2 ATS in their 14 lined games this season, which just goes to show how undervalued they have really been.

You may have noticed that all four of their losses have come on the road.  Well, the Eagles are a perfect 9-0 at home this season.  Not only are they winning, they are absolutely dominating.  They have outscored their nine opponents at home by an average of 23.3 points per game this year.

Georgia State is a quality team at 15-7 on the season, but it has been overvalued for much of the season, going just 9-12 ATS.  It has done most of its damage at home, where it is 9-1.  The Panthers are just 4-6 in true road games this year. 

They lost to Iowa State by 23 as 10-point dogs, to Colorado State by 10 as 6-point dogs, to Old Dominion by 4 as 3-point dogs, to Wisconsin-Green Bay by 17 as 4.5-point dogs, to Lafayette by 4 as 2.5-point favorites, and to Appalachian State by 5 as 11.5-point favorites.  Three of their four road wins have come by 6 points or less.

 Home-court advantage has been massive in this series in recent years.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings dating back to 2009.  Georgia Southern has upset Georgia State in its last two home meetings.  It won 68-64 in 2012 as 2-point underdogs, and 74-72 in 2010 as 5-point dogs.

Georgia State is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games.  Georgia Southern is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS when playing against  a team with a winning record this season.  The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. Sun Belt foes.  Bet Georgia Southern Thursday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +11.5

At 16-5 on the season, the LSU Tigers come into this game overvalued as 11.5-point home favorites over the Auburn Tigers (10-11).  I'll take advantage and back the road team as double-digit underdogs in a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire.

Auburn has been getting better as the season has gone on under first-year head coach, Bruce Pearl.  Yes, Auburn has lost four of its last five games coming in, but it has gone 3-2 ATS as all five games were decided by 10 points or less.  That includes a 71-68 home win over South Carolina as 2.5-point dogs, a 55-57 road loss to Alabama as 11-point dogs, and a 63-71 road loss to Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs.

LSU is certainly improved this season, but with this improvement has come expectations from oddsmakers that I don't believe it can live up to tonight.  After all, seven of LSU's last eight games have been decided by 7 points or less, so it has consistently played in games that have gone right down to the wire, and I don't expect tonight to be any exception.

Not only has Auburn's last five games been decided by 10 points or less, and seven of LSU's last eight games been decided by 7 points or less, but this has been a closely-contested series as well.  Indeed, five of the last six meetings between LSU and Auburn have been decided by 9 points or fewer.  The only exception was a 67-52 home win by Auburn in 2012.

Auburn is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with LSU, and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings.  Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss.  Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight visits to LSU dating back to 2006.  Take Auburn Thursday.

25* Ohio Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee State +15.5

The Tennessee State Tigers are just 5-18 on the season.  They have also gone 0-12 on the road.  While that may be concerning, the fact of the matter is that this team is way undervalued right now because of its record, and has been for a couple weeks now.

Indeed, Tennessee State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It lost at SIU Edwardsville by 7 as 13-point underdogs, at Austin Peay by 1 as 11-point dogs, at Murray State by 19 as 22.5-point dogs and at home to Belmont by 8 as 13-point dogs.  It is coming off back-to-back home wins over Tennessee Tech by 8 as 7-point dogs, and Jacksonville State by 2 as 4-point dogs.

At 10-14 this season, Morehead State has no business being this heavily favored over Tennessee State tonight.  The Eagles have only won one of their last eight games by more than 13 points.  They have really struggled at home here of late.  Indeed, they are just 1-6 SU in their last seven home games overall. 

They lost to East Tennessee State by 4 as 6-points favorites, by 2 to Oakland as 6.5-point favorites, by 23 to Northern Kentucky, by 9 to Murray State as 3-point dogs, by 3 to Eastern Illinois as 6-point favorites, and by 9 to Eastern Kentucky as 1-point favorites.  Simply put, the Eagles have no home-court advantage this year.

Home court has meant little in this series as the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings.  Tennessee State went into Morehead State and came away with a 70-68 victory as 12-point underdogs last year.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Tennessee State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Tigers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 vs. Ohio Valley opponents.  The Eagles are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 vs. Ohio Valley foes.  Morehead State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  Tennessee State is 10-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 9-0 ATS off a home win against a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Bet Tennessee State Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +4.5

The Air Force Falcons were expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Mountain West this season due to the return of four starters from last year.  After a respectable 6-3 start, it has been all downhill for the Falcons as they currently sit at 9-12.

Well, the good news about their recent poor play is that it has created some excellent line value to back them tonight as 4.5-point home underdogs to the New Mexico Lobos.  The Falcons are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, but there's a good explanation for their recent poor play.

The Falcons have been without leading scorer Max Yon (15.3 PPG, 50.6% shooting) for each of their last six games due to personal reasons.  He is the only player on the Falcons averaging double-digits scoring, so it's no surprise that they are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS without him.

Well, Yon is expected to return tonight, and he makes all the difference in the world for this team.  The first time they played New Mexico this season, they lost 48-60 in their first game without Yon on January 14th.  Having Yon back and playing at home this time around, I look for the Falcons to likely pull off the upset over the Lobos, but we'll take the 4.5 points for added insurance.

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball as its is 9-2 at home.  However, it has been a different story on the road.  The Lobos are just 5-5 in all road games this year.  Their last three road wins have come by a combined 10 points over New Mexico State, Utah State and UNLV, or by an average of 3.3 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Air Force and New Mexico dating back to 2012.  Look for this trend to extend to 7-0 after tonight.  Bet Air Force Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -6

The Texas Longhorns are in major need of a victory tonight.  I look for them to come out highly motivated and to put away the Oklahoma State Cowboys by 7-plus points to cover this generous 6-point spread Wednesday.

Texas has lost three straight coming in, and at 14-7 on the season, it is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament without a big finish to the season.  Its last three losses have come at home to Kansas, and on the road to Iowa State and Baylor, so the schedule has as much to do with its recent struggles as anything.

The Longhorns return home tonight where they are 9-3 on the season and outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  They take on an Oklahoma State team with an identical 14-7 record, but one that has done most of its damage at home, where it is 10-2.  It has been a much different story on the road for the Cowboys.

Indeed, Oklahoma State is 1-5 in true road games this season, getting outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game.  It has lost its last three road games in blowout fashion, all by double-digits.  It lost at Kansas by 10 as 7-point dogs, at Oklahoma by 17 as 6.5 points dogs, and at Kansas State by 10 as 2.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Texas and Oklahoma State.  In fact, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings with all seven victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Cowboys are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to Texas.  This will be a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well to add to the motivation after losing by 11 at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this year.

The Cowboys are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games overall.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games as an underdog of 6 points or less.  The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -6

The Toledo Rockets have underachieved this season.  They returned all but one key player from last year's 27-win team.  Many expected them to run away with the MAC, but after a 13-8 start, that's not going to happen.  However, this slow start has created some nice value to back the Rockets going forward, especially tonight.

The Rockets are certainly better than their 13-8 record would indicate.  Unfortunately, they have come out on the short end of the stick in too many close games.  Seven of their eight losses have come by 10 points or less with the only exception being a 17-point loss at Duke as 20-point underdogs.  Five of their eight losses have been by 7 points or fewer.

Toledo has started to show signs of what it is capable of here recently.  It has won three straight, including an 80-69 road win at Northern Illinois last time out.  I look for this solid play to continue tonight against Eastern Michigan.

The Eagles are off to a solid 14-7 start this season, but they have done most of their damage at home, where they are 12-1.  It has been a different story on the road.  The Eagles are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 6.4 points per game.  Toledo is 8-3 at home where it is outscoring opponents by 10.8 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  In fact, the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Five of those six victories came by 8 points or more, including four by double-digits.  Toledo is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Eastern Michigan, winning by 15, 11, 11, 8 and 25 points.

Eastern Michigan is 0-8 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 25-50 ATS in their last 75 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  EMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Toledo.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Toledo Wednesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Michigan -4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They still are getting no respect from the books as only 4.5-point home favorites over the Bowling Green Falcons tonight.

With five returning starters to work with, head coach Keno Davis has led the Chippewas to a 15-4 record this season.  What really stands out is how dominant they have been at home.  They are 12-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in home lines games this seaosn, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 24.1 points per game.

Bowling Green is a solid team at 13-6 SU and 12-3 ATS on the season.  The Falcons have been undervalued up until this point, but they are getting too much love from the books as only 4.5-point road dogs here.  After all, the Falcons are just 4-4 straight up on the road this season, which includes a 10-point loss to Western Kentucky and a 17-point loss to Akron.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series in recent years.  In fact, the home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the only exception being a 54-53 win by Central Michigan as 11.5-point road underdogs in 2012.  Otherwise, the home team has won the other four meetings by 5 points or more.  The Chippewas are 8-1 (89%) ATS in their last nine home meetings with the Falcons.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.