It’s a non-conference tilt in the Pacific Northwest. The Boise State Broncos travel west to battle the Oregon State Beavers Saturday afternoon. The game kicks off at 3:30 pm ET from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon. The game is televised nationally on Fox Sports 1. The current odds show Boise State as a 13 point favorite in the contest with the over/under set at 61.5 points.
Boise State is coming off a bye last week. They downed Washington State 31-28 on the blue turf at home two weeks ago in their last game. Oregon State lost their last 10 games before breaking through with a 37-7 victory over FCS program Idaho State last week. This is the ninth all-time meeting between the programs. Oregon State holds a 5-3 advantage in the all-time series. The Beavers won the last meeting 38-23 in 2013.
Boise State is putting up solid offensive numbers again this season. The Broncos already own a win over a Pac-12 program with their win over Washington State. Boise State averages 502 yards of offense and 38 points per game so far. The Broncos’ big advantage here comes in the passing game: Boise State averages 362.5 yards per game through the air. Oregon State has allowed just a 54.7 completion rate and 178.5 yards per game via the aerial assault. Boise State can pound the ball with Jeremy McNichols against an Oregon State front that allows 143 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Oregon State doesn’t have enough skill players to contend with weapons like Brett Rypien, McNichols and Thomas Sperbeck. The Beavers need a solid pass rush to force Rypien to make decisions quicker than he’d like.
Oregon State isn’t a super powered offense. Their numbers were boosted with their win over Idaho State last week. The Beavers lost by seven to Minnesota to open the season. No one is putting the Golden Gophers in the conversation for a playoff spot. Oregon State averages 367.5 yards per game on offense. The Beavers put up 200 passing yards per game on 57.1 percent completion rate. They could take advantage a bit through the air: Boise State allows a 73.1 percent completion rate and 333 yards per game through the air. Darell Garretson stabilized the QB position after coming over from Utah State as a transfer. One thing that is a pretty safe bet is that Oregon State needs the passing game to have success here. Boise State allows just 60.5 yards per game and two yards per carry on the ground so far.
Oregon State finally cracked the win column after 10 straight losses. That’s hardly inspiring when it comes to facing a Boise State team that moves the ball at will. The Broncos have a slew of weapons on the offensive side of the ball and a lot of experience. Oregon State’s defense keeps them in it for a while but Boise State’s talent shines through. The Broncos get their second win over a Pac-12 school this season here. For more week 4 picks, check here for the rundown!
Boise State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Oregon State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Beavers are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.