Texas West Virginia Odds
The Texas Longhorns (6-2, 5-0 Big 12) look to remain unbeaten in conference play when they travel to face the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-5, 2-4 Big 12) on Saturday, November 9. These teams played in an absolute thriller last season with the Mountaineers coming away with a 48-45 road victory in Austin.
This will be a prime time game at 7:00 EST Saturday night with FOX providing the television coverage. Taking a look at the odds in Las Vegas, I find Texas as a 6.5-point favorite at West Virginia with a total set of 56 points.
Why Texas Covers
The Longhorns have rebounded very nicely from a slow start to win five straight games to open Big 12 play. They have posted some impressive victories in the process with a home win over Kansas State (31-21), as well as road wins at Oklahoma (36-20) and TCU (30-7). There’s no question that this team comes in with a ton of confidence and is on a mission to win a conference title after getting dogged on in the early going.
What has been most impressive about the turnaround is the Texas defense. It has allowed 20 or less points in three straight games and an average of 13.3 points per game in the process. It held Oklahoma to just 20 points and 263 total yards, TCU to 7 points and 246 yards, and Kansas to 13 points and 306 yards. The offense has been solid all season, averaging 32.9 points and 446.6 yards per game.
West Virginia hasn’t been good on either side of the football this season, It is scoring 23.7 points and averaging 397.3 yards per game to rank 76th in total offense. It has been even worse on the other side of the ball, yielding 30.0 points and 451.8 yards per game to rank 98th in total defense. It gave up 73 points to Baylor, 37 to Texas Tech and 35 to Kansas State in three Big 12 defeats.
Texas is 37-20 against the spread in its last 57 road games after a game where it forced one or less turnovers. The Mountaineers are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. West Virginia is 4-14 against the number in its last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Mountaineers are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 home games overall.
Why West Virginia Covers
The Mountaineers are coming off an impressive 30-27 road win at TCU as a 10.5-point underdog last weekend. That victory got them to four wins on the season and in position to go after a bowl bid. They would love nothing more than to hand Texas its first loss of the season this weekend at home, where the Mountaineers have been playing their best football this year.
West Virginia is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Texas Tech. It actually led the Red Raiders 27-16 late in the third quarter before giving up 21 unanswered points to close out the game. The Mountaineers’ 30-21 home victory over Oklahoma State as a 19.5-point underdog is looking better and better as the season goes on. The Cowboys are clearly one of the best teams in the country, so that was an excellent victory.
West Virginia is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Texas Tech. The Mountaineers’ 30-21 home victory over Oklahoma State as a 19.5-point underdog is looking better and better as the season goes on.
You can’t just forget about how poorly Texas played early in the season in a 21-40 loss at BYU, and a 23-44 home loss to Ole Miss. Sure, the Longhorns have won five straight since, but they are now starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it. Asking them to lay a touchdown on the road to West Virginia may be asking too much. Especially with what the Mountaineers have shown they are capable of in games against Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.
Plays on any team (W VIRGINIA) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mountaineers only gave up 60 rushing yards on 29 carries to TCU last week, which bodes well for them heading into this one considering Texas relies heavily on the run. The Longhorns are 9-21 against the spread in their last 30 road games following five or more consecutive straight up wins.
My Early Lean: West Virginia +6.5