Oregon Stanford Odds
In one of the biggest games of the year in college football, the No. 3 Oregon Ducks (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12) travel to face the No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) on Thursday, November 7. Stanford ruined Oregon’s perfect season last year with a 17-14 road win in overtime as an 18.5-point underdog.
This game will be nationally televised on ESPN at 9:00 EST Thursday night. Taking a look at the odds in Las Vegas, I find Oregon as a 10.5-point favorite at Stanford.
Why Oregon Covers
The Ducks have certainly made a case for being the best team in all of college football. They have won every game this season by 21 or more points en route to their 8-0 start. That includes a 45-24 win at Washington, which is the same team should have won at Stanford, losing 28-31 despite outgaining the Cardinal by 210 total yards.
Oregon is putting up 55.6 points and 632.1 yards per game to rank 2nd in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota is the Heisman Trophy front runner to this point thanks to his 2,281 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions, as well as his 511 rushing yards and nine scores. The defense hasn’t been too shabby, either, giving up 16.9 points and 359.2 yards per game to rank 27th in total defense.
The last time Oregon played at Stanford, it won 53-30 as a 2.5-point underdog. Despite being 7-1 this season, the Cardinal have actually been outgained in four different contests. This Cardinal team doesn’t appear to be as dominant as it has been in year’s past, while this Oregon team is as good as any we’ve ever seen to this point. Oregon is outgaining opponents by 273 yards per game on the season, while Stanford is only outgaining foes by 37 yards per game.
Oregon is outgaining opponents by 273 yards per game on the season, while Stanford is only outgaining foes by 37 yards per game.
Oregon is 14-2 against the spread in its last 16 games overall. The Ducks are 13-3 against the number in their last 16 road games. Oregon is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game. The Ducks are 10-1 against the number in their last 11 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game. Oregon is 9-0 against the spread in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.
Why Stanford Covers
The Cardinal play the kind of football that can give Oregon fits. They play a physical brand of football that consistently keeps their defensive line in the opposing backfield and disrupts plays. That was certainly the case last year when Stanford went into Oregon and came away with a 17-14 overtime victory.
Stanford’s defense held Marcus Mariota to 21 of 37 passing for 207 yards with one touchdown and one interception as well as 89 rushing yards. Sure, a 296-yard performance would be good for most players, but not Mariota with what he has been doing the past two seasons. Kevin Hogan played a solid game for Stanford, completing 25 of 36 passes for 211 yards with one touchdown and one pick. Stepfan Taylor ran for 161 yards in the win as the Cardinal amassed 411 total yards.
The Cardinal are only giving up 19.4 points and 354.0 yards per game to rank 23rd in the country in total defense. The key to stopping Oregon is stopping the run, and the Cardinal have the perfect antidote. They are giving up just 103.3 yards per game and 3.3 per carry to rank 10th in the country against the run. If they can limit the Ducks’ rushing attack, they certainly have a chance to win outright Thursday night.
Stanford is 36-17-1 against the spread in its last 54 games overall. The Cardinal are 18-8 against the number in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Stanford is 36-15-1 against the spread in its last 52 games following a S.U. win. Oregon is 1-5 against the number in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game.
My Early Lean: Oregon -10.5