The Stanford Cardinal host the Oregon Ducks on Saturday, November 14 in the biggest game in the Pac-12 North division to this point. The Cardinal had won two straight in this series prior to falling 16-45 on the road to the Ducks last year.
Stanford (8-1, 7-0 Pac-12) rolled to a 42-10 road win at Colorado last weekend. The Cardinal continued riding the hot hand of Christian McCaffrey, who rushed for 147 yards, while also throwing a 28-yard touchdown pass to Austin Hooper in the win.
Oregon (6-3, 4-2 Pac-12) is coming off its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home win over California last week. The Ducks racked up 777 yards with Vernon Adams accounting for five total touchdowns in the win.
Kickoff inside Stanford Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 EST Saturday night with FOX providing the television coverage. If you are looking to wager on this game, you’ll find Stanford as a 10-point favorite over Oregon with a total set of 69 points.
My Early Lean: Oregon +10
Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because is a playoff contender. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that it is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in fading the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.
It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.
It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.
Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score.
The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright.
One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.
Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.