The Nebraska Cornhuskers are still searching for their first win of the Scott Frost era as they pay a visit to the Northwestern Wildcats this weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, October 13, at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. The game will be broadcast nationally on ABC.
At the moment, oddsmakers are listing Northwestern as 3.5-point favorites at home. Click here to see betting odds for every college football on this week’s schedule.
When Frost returned to Nebraska, he knew he had a lot of hard work ahead of him, but he didn’t think his first season in Lincoln would go like this. The Cornhuskers are 0-5 and 0-3 in Big Ten play. All three of their losses in conference play have come by double-digit margins. It’s been an immense struggle for a team that’s near the bottom nationally in both points scored and points allowed.
Nebraska will have to win six of their last seven games in order to qualify for a bowl game. Of course, at this point, the Cornhuskers would gladly settle for winning one game and going from there. In their defense, two of their three Big Ten games have been against ranked teams in Michigan and Wisconsin, so perhaps they’ll have better luck against Northwestern.
The Wildcats, likewise, haven’t had their season go as planned either. Pat Fitzgerald’s team won 10 games in 2017, but they have failed to carry that momentum into 2018. Until last week’s upset over Michigan State, the Wildcats had lost three straight games, including a stunner against Akron.
As it stands, Northwestern is just 2-3 on the season, leaving them four wins shy of a bowl game with seven games to play. That being said, the Wildcats are 2-1 in Big Ten play and very much alive in the West division. If Northwestern can win the rest of their conference games, they’ll be in a position to play in the Big Ten title game. Of course, they’ll have to play much better than they have thus far.
These two teams have actually put together a rather intriguing rivalry since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011. The Cornhuskers have won four of the seven meetings, but five of those seven games have been decided by a touchdown or less. These two teams typically play competitive games, and I expect that trend to continue on Saturday.
I don’t know if Nebraska is going to find a way to finally win a game this week. But with a series that’s been this competitive, I have to take the underdog with the spread at more than a field goal. Even after they beat Michigan State last week, I’m not sure I’m ready to buy into Northwestern just yet. I’ll take my chances with the Cornhuskers and the points.
The odd thing about Nebraska is that they’ve been able to move the ball this season. However, they haven’t turned those yards into points the way you’d expect. Frost is undergoing a considerable renovation of the offense in terms of scheme, so improvement will take some time. On the bright side, he seems to have found the right quarterback in true freshman Adrian Martinez.
In each of the last two games, Martinez has thrown for over 300 yards. He’s also a threat with his legs, helping to give Nebraska a viable rushing attack as well. The key is finding a way to finish off drives in the end zone, something they haven’t done despite accumulating over 500 yards of offense the past two weeks against Purdue and Wisconsin.
The Northwestern defense has been solid this season. But they aren’t accustomed to seeing spread teams like Nebraska. I’m not sure they’ll have the athletes to keep the Cornhuskers contained over four quarters. I think Nebraska will continue to have success moving the ball. It’s just a matter of whether or not they can turn that success in points on the scoreboard.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t like what I’ve seen from the Northwestern offense this year. They continue to be one of the worst teams in college football at running the ball. Even in their win last week, the Wildcats managed just eight total rushing yards on 20 carries. To be fair, Michigan State has one of the best run defenses in the country. But on the season, the Wildcats are gaining 2.4 yards per carry, and that includes what they got from Jeremy Larkin before he was forced to retire.
With no running game, the Wildcats put a lot on the shoulders of quarterback Clayton Thorson. As a senior, I’m confident in Thorson to make winning plays in crunch time. But he’s not the kind of quarterback that you want being forced to throw 30-plus times a game. Even against a Nebraska defense that has allowed over 40 points in all three of their conference games, I’m not convinced the Northwestern offense will have consistent success.
Ultimately, I don’t see the Wildcats scoring enough points to win this game comfortably. The Nebraska offense is good enough to stick around, even if they aren’t as efficient as they need to be. I like the Wildcats to win this game, but I don’t see them as a team that will be able to take full advantage of Nebraska’s weaknesses. With the line at 3.5 points, I’ll take my chances with Nebraska at least making this a field goal game.