Both teams will be looking to start the Big 12 season with a win when the Baylor Bears play host to the Iowa State Cyclones. The game is scheduled for 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
Iowa State is currently favored by 2.5 points on the road. The over/under for the game is listed at 56.5 points. Click here for a full schedule and betting odds for this week’s college football games.
Coming off last year’s 7-6 season, Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in 2019. Of course, the Bears haven’t exactly challenged themselves this year with their non-conference schedule. Baylor has scored wins over Stephen F. Austin, Texas-San Antonio, and Rice. After handling the first two teams, last week’s 21-13 win over lowly Rice raised some eyebrows about whether or not the Bears are ready for Big 12 play.
Of course, ready or not, Baylor is about to start conference play. The Bears get a break by having five of their nine league games at home. They also need just three wins in their final nine games to secure a bowl bid. However, there are no easy games in the Big 12 this year, starting this week with Iowa State.
Unlike Baylor, the Cyclones have been challenged a couple of times this season. ISU barely escaped their season opener with FCS opponent Northern Iowa. They also let a game with rival Iowa slip through their fingers, losing at home 18-17. However, the Cyclones will head into Big 12 play with a little momentum after a 72-20 thrashing of Louisiana-Monroe last week.
The pressure is on Iowa State to get off to a fast start in conference play. The Cyclones will play ranked teams Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas State in November, which means they need to win as many games as possible in September and October to assure themselves of a bowl spot. However, Iowa State will hit the road for three of their first four Big 12 contests.
This is one of the most evenly matched rivalries in the Big 12. Baylor has nine wins to Iowa State’s eight in 17 all-time meetings between the two teams. But things could be about to even out, as the Cyclones have won this matchup the past two years, including a 23-13 win when they visited Waco in 2017.
I can’t speak highly enough of the job Matt Campbell has done at Iowa State. He’s one of the most underrated coaches in the country. On paper, this is a game that could go either way. But I like what Campbell and the Cyclones have done this season more than what 3-0 Baylor has accomplished. Covering 2.5 points isn’t that big a deal, even on the road. I’ll lean toward Iowa State to win and cover.
The best unit on the field during this game is likely to be the Iowa State defense. Under Campbell, the Cyclones have been one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12. Based on the first three games of the season, that isn’t likely to change this season. They held a good Iowa team to just one touchdown and four field goals, so the ISU defense isn’t easy to break. The Cyclones are particularly strong along the defensive line, which is where I think they’ll be able to disrupt the Baylor offense.
To be fair, the Bears have been good offensively during the early part of the season. Quarterback Charlie Brewer looks poised to take a big step forward, especially with an all-Big 12 caliber receiver in Denzel Mims at his disposal. Baylor is also gaining 6.8 yards per carry on the ground.
However, the Baylor offense has put up big numbers against bad teams. They also managed just 21 points last week against a Rice team that’s 0-4 and allowed 40-plus points to both Texas and Wake Forest. That’s enough of a red flag for the Baylor offense, especially heading into a game against one of the best defensive teams they’ll likely face all season.
On the other side of the ball, I’m a big fan of the Iowa State offense. Obviously, I don’t expect them to score 72 points like they did last week against ULM. But the Cyclones have made big strides on that side of the ball since Brock Purdy took over as the starter midway through the 2018 campaign. Purdy has continued to develop into a dangerous dual-threat quarterback this season. Even in the Iowa loss, he completed 24 of his 34 passes for 276 yards. More importantly, Purdy is getting enough help around him to give the Baylor defense trouble, especially since the Bears haven’t been challenged much this year.
While I think Baylor has a solid team, I think the Cyclones are just a little better on both sides of the ball. I trust the ISU defense to get their share of stops and I trust Purdy to move the ball and put points on the board. This should be a close game, but I favor Iowa State to win by at least a field goal and cover.