Both teams will be looking to start conference play with a win when the Illinois Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a Big Ten West showdown this weekend. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 EST on Saturday, September 21 at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. Fans can watch the game on the Big Ten Network.
According to the Week 4 college football odds, the Cornhuskers are 13.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under for the game is set at 62 points.
For Illinois, this season is all about taking a step forward after improving from 2-10 in 2017 to 4-8 last season. Lovie Smith’s job could depend on it. After the Illini started out 2-0, there appeared to be some improvement. However, that train came to a screeching halt last week with a loss to Eastern Michigan. Illinois managed to erase a 14-point deficit n the fourth quarter, only to give up a last-second field in a 34-31 loss.
Smith and company now head into Big Ten play knowing they need at least four wins in nine conference games to reach a bowl game. That won’t be easy with three games against teams that are currently ranked. A home date against Nebraska is a game that the Illini almost have to win if they hope to get to six wins, even if they’re two-touchdown underdogs heading into Saturday’s game.
As for Nebraska, they are also a rebuilding program that’s hoping to take a step forward in 2019. Much like Illinois, the Cornhuskers have already suffered a setback this season, losing a hard-fought game against rival Colorado a couple of weeks ago. The good news is that Nebraska got right back on their horse last week, blowing out Northern Illinois 44-8 to get to 2-1 heading into Big Ten play.
Also like Illinois, the Cornhuskers are four wins away from a bowl game with nine games to play, including three against ranked teams. The goal for Nebraska is to avoid looking ahead to next week’s primetime game against Ohio State. The Cornhuskers will still have a chance to reach a bowl if they lose to Illinois. However, the road will be far more difficult if they can’t take care of business as road favorites on Saturday.
Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2013, the Cornhuskers have had their way with Illinois, winning five of the six head-to-head meetings with the Illini. All five of those wins have come by at least 15 points, so the games haven’t always been close. However, the Fighting Illini did pull off a 1-point win over Nebraska at home in 2015, a result they would love to replicate this week.
Admittedly, it’s hard to get behind a team that just lost to a MAC team at home. But I’m going to give Illinois the benefit of the doubt. I think the Illini know how important Saturday’s game, so I’ll trust them to give Nebraska their best game. I don’t know if it’ll be enough to win, but I like Illinois to make this a close game and beat the spread.
When it comes to Nebraska, I feel certain that the Cornhuskers will be able to score points in this game. Adrian Martinez is as dynamic of a dual-threat quarterback that you’ll find in the Big Ten. Wide receiver JD Spielman is also among the best in the conference at his position. Those two alone will create plenty of big plays and give the Illinois defense fits.
However, my concern for the Cornhuskers is on the defensive side of the ball. They may have limited Northern Illinois to just eight points last week, but the Nebraska defense showed some flaws against Colorado the previous week. The Cornhuskers gave up points both on explosive plays and on long, sustained drives. Even though they did a nice job of keeping the Colorado running game in check, they were still vulnerable through the air. Keep in mind the Cornhuskers led that game 17-0 at halftime but allowed Colorado to climb back in by throwing the ball.
While the Illinois defense is a problem, the Fighting Illini have managed to score plenty of points this year. Admittedly, they’ve played Akron, UConn, and Eastern Michigan. But a rebuilding Nebraska defense isn’t that much better than the teams Illinois has faced this season.
In Brandon Peters, Illinois has a quarterback who can take advantage of a porous Nebraska defense. The Michigan transfer has always had the arm talent, and he’s finally getting a chance to use it. His nine touchdown passes have gone to five different receivers. The Illini have a multitude of playmakers with different skillsets. Nebraska will have a hard time locking down on one player, allowing Peters to spread the ball around and keep the Cornhuskers off balance defensively.
Ultimately, I don’t trust Nebraska’s defense enough to eat the points. Even if Martinez and the Nebraska offense move the ball at will, I think Peters and the Illinois offense will be able to keep up. If the Fighting Illini can get the home crowd in the game and get a stop or two, they may have a chance to pull off the upset. Even if they don’t, I think Illinois can at least keep this game within two scores and beat the spread.