Falcons Panthers Odds
This Sunday the Carolina Panthers (4-3) will the Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in the first of two meetings between these NFC South rivals. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST at Bank of America Stadium and will be televised locally on FOX. While the Panthers have won three straight and right in the thick of things in the NFC playoff race, the Falcons have lost four of five, including a 13-27 road defeat at Arizona last week. Oddsmakers currently have Carolina listed as a 7.5-point home favorite with the total set at 44.5 points.
Why Atlanta Will Cover:
Needless to say things haven’t gone the way of the Falcons in 2013. Atlanta has had to deal with several key injuries and a number of close losses. Four of their five defeats have come by a touchdown or less. Getting back in the playoff picture appears to be a long shot, but I don’t think this team is going to lay down for a division opponent like they did last week against the Cardinals. Atlanta is an impressive 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following a road loss.
Anytime you have a quarterback as gifted as Matt Ryan, you have a shot to win every time you step on the field. There appears to be a lot of value on the Falcons getting more than a touchdown against a Carolina team who is getting a lot of praise right now. The Panthers three game winning streak have come against teams with a combined 4-18 record and their other victory was against the helpless Giants. Everyone wants to make a big deal of Atlanta’s loss last week to Arizona. The same Cardinals team beat Carolina 22-6 earlier this season.
Here’s a strong system that goes hand in hand with Atlanta being undervalued right now and the Panthers getting a little too much credit. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half vs an opponent who has scored 25 points or more in three straight games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1983. Adding to this is the fact that road underdogs off a road loss are 50-18 (73.5%) ATS in the month of November over the last 10 seasons.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half vs an opponent who has scored 25 points or more in three straight games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1983.
While the Falcons have lost Julio Jones for the season, they just recently got back starting running back Steven Jackson and there’s a chance Roddy White could make his return this week. Carolina’s great against the run, but their pass defense isn’t as good as the numbers would indicate. If they come into this game looking ahead to their big matchups against the 49ers and Patriots, they could end up leaving Week 9 with a 4-4 record.
Why Carolina Will Cover:
The Panthers didn’t get off to the best of starts, but this team is rolling right now and are playing a huge amount of confidence. The running game has been a force all season, but it’s been starting quarterback Cam Newton who has really got this team going. Newton has completed an impressive 77.3% of his pass attempts and compiled a 130.3 passer rating during the win streak, throwing for 667 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions.
It’s hard to imagine Newton and company slowing down against an Atlanta defense that ranks 22nd in the league against both the run (114.1 ypg) and the pass (249.6 ypg). One of the big reasons the Falcons defense has struggled is the lackluster play of their defensive line. They can’t stop the run and they can’t get after the quarterback. Newton is going to have all day to set his feet and pick apart this Atlanta secondary. Even if the Falcons play inspired football and Ryan has a big game, you have to wonder if they can generate enough offense to keep this game close.
So much attention is giving to the quarterbacks in the NFL, but a lot of times the team who can run the football is the one that ends up winning the game. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 75 or less rushing yards in their last game against an opponent who has gained 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Adding to this is the fact that the Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when they come in having held their last two opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 75 or less rushing yards in their last game against an opponent who has gained 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Early Lean – Falcons +7.5