Auburn Alabama Odds
Posted by Jack Jones - Google+
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The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1, 6-1 SEC) host the Auburn Tigers (3-8, 0-7 SEC) in the Iron Bowl Saturday. This r
Why Alabama Coversivalry will be nationally televised on CBS at 3:30 EST. Taking a look at the odds for Week 13, I find a spread of Alabama -31.5 over Auburn and a total set of 46 points.
The Crimson Tide have new life after both Oregon and Kansas State lost last week. They are now solidly in the No. 2 position in the BCS Standings, and with two more wins, they’ll be playing in the national title game. That gives them plenty of motivation to want to put four full quarters together against Auburn and cover this hefty spread.
The Tigers have been one of the worst teams in the SEC this season right alongside Kentucky. They are winless in conference play, and their only three wins have come against Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State and Alabama A&M. They have losses by 42 points to Texas A&M and by 38 to Georgia on their resume.
Auburn ranks 114th in the country in total offense at 317.9 yards per game and 74th in total defense at 414.8 yards per game. It will have a very hard time moving the football and scoring any points against an Alabama defense that is giving up just 10.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide rank 2nd in the country in total defense at 240.1 yards per game allowed.
The Tigers are 0-7 against the spread after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Alabama is 7-0 against the spread in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons. Auburn is 1-5 against the spread in its last 6 road games.
Why Auburn Covers
There’s no question that the oddsmakers realize the betting public is not going to want to touch Auburn this week, and they are going to be all over Alabama. That’s why the books were forced to set this number at 31.5 to try and get even action on both sides. There certainly could be some value on the Tigers because of it.
This is a rivalry game, and anything can happen in these types of contests. Sure, Auburn has had a horrible season, but it will have no problem getting motivated to face its arch rival Saturday. It would make the Tigers’ season if they were able to find a way to upset the Crimson Tide, but all they have to do is stay within four touchdowns and a field goal to cover this big number.
This play falls into a system that is 65-29 (69.1%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet against any team (ALABAMA) – good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a poor offensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.
Alabama is 3-18 against the spread in home games vs. poor passing defenses – allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992. The Crimson Tide are 12-27 ATS in home games after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Alabama is 1-5 against the spread in its last 6 home games. The Tigers are 21-9-1 against the spread in their last 31 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
