Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They have opened 6-0 with five of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  The only exception was a 79-77 win at Stephen F. Austin as a 3-point dog, which is a team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament this year as well.  Their two most impressive wins came against VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42) both on neutral courts.

Tuttle (16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Washpun (10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg) have carried the load up to this point, but this is such a balanced, deep team that they are tough to deal with.  THe Panthers have seven players averaging at least 6.0 points per game this season.

Richmond is a team on the decline.  It went 19-14 last year and will be hard-pressed to match that record with the loss of leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), who was the heart and soul of this team in his four years year.  They do return three starters from last year, though.

Richmond is off to an unimpressive 2-2 start this season with its two wins both coming at home against Radford and High Points.  The Spiders have lost both of their road games with a 57-63 loss at Old Dominion as a 2-point underdog, and a 72-84 loss at NC State as a 6-point dog.  I believe Northern Iowa is better than both Old Dominion and NC State this year.

The Spiders are 5-20 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 2-9 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two years. 

Richmond is 2-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  The Spiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers (0-15) are desperate for their first win of the season.  They could have a good shot of pulling off the upset against the Dallas Mavericks tonight given the situation, and I fully expect them to stay within 12 points at the very least.

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-15 team, which has driven this line up higher than it should be tonight.  The 76ers have actually been undervalued over the past week.  They are 2-1 ATS against the closing line in their last three games.

The 76ers only lost 83-91 at New York as an 11-point underdog, 104-114 against Portland as a 13-point dog, and 91-99 against Brooklyn as a 7-point dog.  They have been much more competitive in these three games, and they should continue that trend tonight.

Dallas is in a very difficult spot.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  It is coming off a hard-fought 106-102 win at Eastern Conference-leading Toronto last night, setting it up for a letdown spot here as well.  This tired team won't have what it takes to put away the 76ers by 13-plus points.  Plus, Philadelphia comes in on two days' rest after last playing on Wednesday.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 51-22 (69.9%) ATS since 1996.  Philadelphia is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  So, it is battle-tested after playing Marquette and Nebraska in back-to-back games.

Nevada is coming off a 15-17 season last year.  It brings back just two starters from that team, losing each of its top three scorers in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), Cole Huff (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jerry Evans (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

To no surprise, the Wolf Pack have really struggled in the early going.  They are 2-3 with three straight losses to Seton Hall (60-68), Clemson (50-59) and Weber State (56-69) on a neutral court.  Their two wins are not impressive, either, as they beat both Cal Poly-SLO (65-49) and Adams State (69-64) at home.  That performance against Adams State really tells a lot about how down this team really is.

Nebraska-Omaha is 8-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be laying this many points to anyone with the state they are in this season.  They are playing without four starters from last year in Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and David West.  West is questionable to return tonight, and Roy Hibbert is also questionable.

The Pacers have shown some heart by getting to 6-9 thus far, but this still isn't a very good team, and certainly not one that should be laying this many points.  Only once this season have the Pacers been more than a 4-point favorite, and that was back in their opener as 7.5-point favorites against lowly Philadelphia.

Orlando has made some strides this season as it has been much more competitive with a 6-11 record.  It has lost three straight coming in, but those three came to Miami, Cleveland and Golden State, which are three of the better teams in the NBA.  This rough patch has the Magic undervalued right now.

The Pacers are overvalued due to solid performances on the road in their last two games.  They actually beat Dallas 111-100 as a 14-point underdog as the Mavs simply had a letdown.  They also hung tough against San Antonio last time out in a 100-106 road loss as a 13-point dog.  With Cleveland on deck tomorrow, this is a huge letdown and lookahead spot.  They'll let down following a game against the defending champion Spurs, and they'll be looking ahead to Lebron James and the Cavs tomorrow.

Orlando is 26-12 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Orlando is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.  The Pacers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued due to their 12-2 record that has them in second place in the Western Conference.  The only reason they are 9-point favorites here is because the betting public is all over them due to their fast start, which has created expectations from the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

Charlotte is undervalued right now due to its 4-12 start that has it ranking near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.  There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should not be catching nine points at home tonight.

Eight of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  So, this team has simply been unfortunate in close games.  The Hornets will be desperate to put an end to their seven-game losing streak coming in, which has seen them fail to cover six times.  That has also driven this line up as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

Plays against road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5

The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a solid 20-13 season last year that included a 10-8 mark in Big East play.  Steve Lavin had a young team last year, but he certainly has a veteran bunch in 2014 with four returning starters and most of the key players back from that team.

Back are starters D'Angelo Harrison (17.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg last year), Phil Greene IV (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) and Rysheed Jordan (9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg).  Also back are key reserves Jamal Branch (4.5 ppg), Chris Obekpa (3.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Sir'Dominic Pointer (5.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg).

All six of these guys are playing well en route to a 4-0 start for St. John's that included a 70-61 victory over a very good Minnesota team in the opening round of this NIT Tournament.  The Red Storm have a huge advantage in this tournament because it is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is their home court.

Here is a look at the numbers all of these returnees have posted this season.  Harrison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Jordan (17.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg), Pointer (11.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 spg), Greene IV (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Obekpa (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.3 bpg) and Branch (5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg).  So, as you can see, they are all contributing significantly.  They are the top-six leading scorers on this team.

Gonzaga is getting way too much respect right now because it is currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country and off to a 5-0 start.  However, it really has not played anyone as tough as St. John's yet, and it will meet its match tonight.  It failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite in an 88-76 win over a bad Georgia team in the opening round.

There's no denying that the Bulldogs are a quality team, but they aren't the 10th-best team in the country with what they lost from last year.  They had to part ways with four players who averaged at least 6 points per game, including Sam Dower (14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Dave Stockton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Dreew Barham (6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  They do have three starters back and will be good again, but lost a lot of key role players.

St. John's is 71-47 ATS in its last 118 vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Gonzaga is 2-9 ATS off two straight games where it gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  They are only winning by 3.5 points/game in this spot.  They are clearly overvalued here in a game that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Storm win outright.  Take St. John's Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7

The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season way undervalued after going 9-22 last year, including 0-18 in the Big 12.  They weren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate, and now they return almost everyone from that team and will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.

Indeed, a whopping four starters are back from that squad.  That includes the top two leading scorers in Kyan Anderson (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg last year) and Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who are two of the most underrated players in the Big 12.  Also back are Karviar Shepherd (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Brandon Parish (8.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg).

TCU is off to a perfect 5-0 start this season with all five of its wins coming by 15 points or more.  It has been rather impressive to say the least, especially its 81-54 home victory over Pac-12 foe Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.

Bradley was not very good last year, and things aren't looking up for the Braves in 2014-15, either.  They went just 12-20 last year, including 7-11 within the Missouri Valley Conference.  They lose their top two scorers from last season in Walt Lemon Jr. (18.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) and Tyshon Pickett (12.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg).  The Braves only return two starters this year in Omari Grier (10.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Auston Barnes (8.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg).

It has been an ugly start to the season for Bradley to say the least.  It is just 2-2 despite all four of its games being played at home, and all four against very weak opponents.  The Braves lost 75-86 to Texas-Arlington despite being a 4.5-point favorite.  They also lost to Robert Morris (61-68) before unimpressive wins over North Carolina A&T (58-50) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (52-38).  It's clear by those four results that this team is awful and stands no chance of competing with TCU tonight.

Plays on a favorite (TCU) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  Bradley is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  The Braves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5

Oklahoma is a team I've had my eye on coming into the season as one to watch out for.  It returned four starters from last year and added in a monster transfer from Houston in TaShawn Thomas.

The Sooners have not disappointed as they are off to a 4-1 start with blowout wins over UCLA (75-65) and Butler (59-46) in the first two games of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament.  They did lose at Creighton 63-65 earlier this year, but the Bluejays are a top 25 team, and they blew an 18-point lead in that game.  Butler beat UNC, so that win was a very good one.

Wisconsin is overvalued right now because it is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  It struggled to beat Georgetown as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday, only winning 68-65.  Oklahoma is the best team that it has faced yet.

One thing I really like about the Sooners today is the fact that they played before Wisconsin yesterday.  They played at 1:00 EST, while the Badgers played at 3:30 EST.  So, they get a little extra rest, and they also got to scout the Badgers by watching their game after.  Wisconsin played in a physical game against Georgetown that featured 39 fouls and had to take a lot out of them.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS versus top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5

Many thought that the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take a step back this season with the losses of Marcus Smart (18.0 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Markel Brown (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to the NBA.  However, that has not been the case as they have opened 5-0 this season with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.

The Cowboys returned plenty of talent from last year's squad to be a force off a 21-win campaign last season.  Back are three starters in Le'Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Phil Forte (13.3 ppg, 168 made 3-pointers L2 Years) and Michael Cobbins (4.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Forte (17.8 ppg, 3.8 spg, 40% 3-pointers), Nash (17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) and Cobbins (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all three taken their games to the next level.  Jeffrey Carroll (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Anthony Hickey (8.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) have both stepped in and added significant contributions to the starting lineup.

Frank Haith enters his first season as Tulsa head coach.  He steps into a decent situation because this is a team that went 21-13 last year and figures to be a solid squad again in 2014.  He also has three starters back in James Woodard (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (9.6 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg).

Still, it's going to take some time for this team to gel in Haith's new system, and that has shown.  Tulsa has opened 3-1 this season with a bad loss at Oral Roberts by a final of 68-77.  Its three wins have come against LA-Lafayette (64-53), Abilene Christian (65-39) and Auburn (53-35).  That's the same Lafayette team that lost at Auburn 105-80.  That's the same Auburn team that lost 90-59 at Colorado.

Oklahoma State is 98-68 ATS in its last 166 non-conference games.  Travis Ford is 62-38 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Ford is 9-1 ATS in home games after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Oklahoma State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly not off to the start they wanted this season after making the playoffs last year.  However, they are nowhere near as bad as their 4-11 record would indicate, and as a result they are showing excellent value tonight as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Six of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less.  So, with a little better fortune in close games, this team would be a .500 squad.  They have lost six in a row coming in so the betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has created some nice line value here.  Three of their last four losses have been by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets come into this game not only highly motivated to put an end to their six-game skid, but also to get revenge on the Blazers.  They lost to Portland on the road 100-102 back on November 11th.  They were 6.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch.  That fact alone shows you that there is a ton of value in backing the Hornets.

The Blazers are clearly overvalued right now due to going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them tonight, driving this line up higher than it should be.  The Blazers are only 3-2 on the road this season with their three wins coming against Denver, Boston and Philadelphia.

Plays on home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 105-61 (63.3%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams that have hit a rough patch ATS while fading teams that have been covering machines ATS.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8

At 0-14 on the season, the Philadelphia 76ers are desperate for their first victory.  That 0-14 record also has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them, which has created some excellent line value for us to pounce on tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Philadelphia has been much more competitive in its last two games and should put up a good fight tonight as well.  It covered in an 83-91 loss at New York as an 11-point underdog, then came back with a cover in a 104-114 home loss to Portland as a 13-point dog.

Brooklyn (5-8) isn't worthy of laying 8 points to any team on the road.  Its five wins this season have come against Detroit, Oklahoma City (twice), New York and Orlando.  It has lost six of its last seven games overall coming into this one with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Nets are just 2-5 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 5.7 points per game.

Philadelphia played Brooklyn very tough last year in the final three meetings of the season.  It went a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Nets with all three being decided by 6 points or less.  It won 121-120 as a 5.5-point home dog, lost 108-102 as a 9-point road dog, and lost 101-105 as an 11-point home dog.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  I would argue that the 76ers have more talent than last year, while the Nets have less.

The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams.  Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Yes, I realize that Oklahoma did lose at Creighton 63-65, but the Bluejays are obviously better than expected as they have yet to lose a game.  Also, keep in mind that the Sooners had an 18-point lead in that game and it was a complete fluke that they lost.

While Oklahoma has almost everyong back, UCLA loses almost everyone, including a couple of players to the NBA.  They only return one starter in Norman Powell (11.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  I realize that they have opened 4-0 this season, but they haven't played anyone yet as their four games came against Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State and Long Beach State all at home.

The Bruins lose Kyle Anderson (14.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.5 apg), Jordan Adams (17.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Zach LaVine (9.4 ppg) all to the NBA.  Also gone are key players Travis Wear (7.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and David Wear (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  These players accounted for two-thirds of the Bruins' scoring last year.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  It returns three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg last year), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 3.7 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (22.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Morris (11.0 ppg, 8.0 apg, 4.3 rpg) and Hogue (15.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (14.0 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 3-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82), Georgia State (81-58) and Alabama (84-74).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive. 

Alabama was 3-0 prior to losing yesterday by double-digits to the Cyclones.  Iowa State got back two key players from two-game suspensions for that game against the Crimson Tide.  Matt Thomas scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in his first game game, while Abdel Nader added 4 points in the win.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Maryland has no business only being a 5-point underdog in this game.  It lost five key players from last year's team that went 17-15.  Three of those were Seth Allen (13.4 ppg), Nick Faust (9.4 ppg) and CHarles Mitchell (6.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg).

The Terrapins are overvalued due to their 4-0 start against weak competition.  Their first three wins all came again home against Wagner, Central Connecticut State and Fordham.  Their fourth was a 78-73 win against Arizona State yesterday, which is the same ASU team that only beat Bethune-Cookman 49-39 at home as a 23-point favorite.  This is by far the Terrapins' stiffest test of the season as they clearly aren't as battle-tested as the Cyclones.

The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league this year.  They have opened 7-5 this season and will be a contender to reach the Western Conference playoffs with all of the talent they have on board.

Antony Davis (26.3 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.5 bpg) is an MVP candidate already this year.  Jrue Holiday (15.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Ryan Anderson (14.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg) have returned healthy this season and made a huge difference.  Tyreke Evans (15.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 6.2 apg) is the do-it-all guy for this team.

I know that the Pelicans are banged up right now as Omer Asik (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.2 bpg) is questionable to play tonight, while Eric Gordon (9.5 ppg) is out indefinitely.  But as long as they have their four aforementioned studs healthy, I'm not worried one bit.

Sacramento (8-5) has been one of the biggest surprises in the West this season, but unlike New Orleans, its fast start is unlikely to continue.  I believe the Kings are still a pretender in the West and getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers here as only 3.5-point underdogs.

The Kings have much more worrisome injury concerns than the Pelicans do right now.  Rudy Gay (21.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Darren Collison (15.9 ppg, 7.0 apg) and Ramon Sessions (5.2 ppg) are all questionable to play tonight.  Gay is their second-leading scorer, while Collison and Sessions are the 1-2 on this team at the point guard position to run the offense.  Even if all three play, I STILL love New Orleans as only a 3-point home favorite in this one.

The Pelicans are 4-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Dallas way back in their second game of the season.  The Pelicans are outscoring opponents by 15.2 points per game at home this year.  The Kings are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five games when playing on two days' rest.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 home games overall.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Nebraska-Omaha +15.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg). 

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog in its last game, showing that it can play with a team from a major conference.  It also beat Central Arkansas 100-75 in its opener, giving it a common opponent with Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers came into the season overrated with a Top 25 ranking.  They only beat Northern Kentucky 80-61 in their, and beat Central Arkansas (82-56) by a similar margin Nebraska-Omaha (won by 25) did.  Perhaps the most telling game the Cornhuskers played came in their 62-66 road loss to Rhode Island last time out.

These teams have only met twice before, and both were decided by less than this margin.  Nebraska won 76-62 in 2006 and 75-62 in 2012 as a 14.5-point favorite.  There's no question that the Mavericks are a much better team than they were two years ago and will be poised to give these overrated Huskers a run for their money tonight.

The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  The Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Nebraska-Omaha is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They won the Big 12 Tournament last year and have a great shot to end Kansas' run of 10 straight seasons winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in 2014-15.

Iowa State went 28-8 last year and made the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.  It would lose to eventual national champion Connecticut.  They return three starters from that squad in Georges Niang (16.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg), Dustin Hogue (11.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Monte Morris (6.8 ppg, 3.7 apg).

Fred Hoiberg has made his living in Ames on bringing in talented transfers that can contribute in a big way right away.  This year's team includes four players who transferred from other four-year schools.  Of the previous eight transfers he has attracted to Ames in his four years, seven have started and three were named Big 12 Newcomer of the Year.

Bryce Dejean-Jones, who led UNLV in scoring last season, is a strong candidate to win the award in 2014-15.  He is already averaging 17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg and 5.5 apg through two games, so it appears that Hoiberg has struck gold with another transfer in Dejean-Jones.

Niang (20.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Morris (16.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Hogue (15.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all picked up right where they left off last season.  A key reserver from last year in Naz Long (13.5 ppg) has stepped up his game in a bigger role this year as well.

The Cyclones have opened 2-0 this season with wins over Oakland (93-82) and Georgia State (81-58).  That's the same Georgia State team that won 29 games last year and returned four starters from that squad, so that 23-point win was mighty impressive.

Alabama is off to an unbeaten 3-0 start this season as well.  It does have blowout wins over Towson State (82-54) and Southern Miss (81-67), but its 80-74 win as a 19-point favorite against Western Carolina is concerning.  Also, all three of those games were at home.

This game will be played at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO, which is the same place that Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament last year, so it will be very familiar with the venue for the Cyclones.  It's also just about a three-hour drive for their fans from Ames, so they will have the home-court edge.

Alabama went just 13-19 last year and has not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2012.  While it should be improved this season with four returning starters, the fact of the matter is that this team just doesn't have a whole lot of talent.  The Crimson Tide also lose their leading scorer from last year in Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg, 3.1 apg).

Alabama is 23-44 ATS in its last 67 after playing three consecutive games as a favorite.  The Crimson Tide are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after playing three consecutive games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight  games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Crimson Tide are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Iowa State is 16-6 ATS when playing just its second game in eight days over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are well-rested and ready to go tonight.  Roll with Iowa State Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +5

The Toronto Raptors have clearly been one of the best teams in the league this season.  They have gone 11-2 straight up and 9-4 against the spread, so they have been a covering machine thus far.  While they will continue to be a good bet for much of the season, I believe they are overvalued here tonight.

Phoenix is a team that barely missed the playoffs despite winning 48 games last year in a stacked Western Conference.  It was an underrated squad last year, and that continues to be the case in 2014.  It has opened 9-5 straight up and 7-6 against the spread against a much tougher schedule than Toronto.

A big reason I'm fading the Raptors tonight is because this is a letdown spot for them.  They are coming off a huge 110-93 win at Cleveland on Saturday, which was the favorite to win the NBA Finals coming into the season.  The Raptors won't come back with the same kind of effort they played with in that game.

The Suns have feasted on Eastern Conference opponents this season.  They have gone 5-1 against them, including a perfect 4-0 on the road.  All four of those have come in their last four games as they will conclude a six-game road trip with tonight's game and want to finish it off a winner.

Phoenix swept the season series with Toronto last season.  It won 106-97 at home as a 3.5-point favorite.  It then went on the road and beat the Raptors 121-113 as a 4-point underdog in the second meetings.  The Suns should not be the underdog in this first meeting of 2013-14 tonight.

Plays on underdogs (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, in November games are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  The Suns are 51-22 ATS in their last 73 vs. teams who make 6 or more 3-point shots per game. 

Phoenix is 11-2 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 29-15 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  Phoenix is 32-15-1 ATS in its last 48 road games.  The Suns are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.   Take the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly hurting without Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.  They have opened the season 3-11 and will struggle to make the playoffs after this poor start.  The betting public has taken notice, and they want nothing to do with this team now.

That poor public perception has really created a lot of line value for us to back the Thunder today.  They have lost five in a row coming in, but a closer look at their losses shows that they have actually been very competitive despite playing a very difficult schedule this season.

The Thunder are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, but only one of those seven losses has come by more than seven points.  So, they have been very close, but they just haven't been able to get over the hump.

Oklahoma City has been much more competitive at home than on the road.  It is 2-4 SU but 4-2 ATS at home this season.  It has beaten Denver (102-91) and Sacramento (101-93), while all four of its losses to Memphis (89-91), Detroit (89-96), Houston (65-69) and Brooklyn (92-94) have come by seven points or fewer.  So, it has yet to lose at home by this margin.

Golden State, on the other hand, is way overvalued right now due to its 9-2 start to the season.  It has won four straight coming in, but all four of those were against weak opponents in Brooklyn, Charlotte, LA Lakers and Utah.  I have no doubt that the Warriors are feeling overconfident due to this fast start, and they won't bring the intensity it takes to put away the Thunder by this margin on the road.

Oklahoma City is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Thunder are 61-31 ATS in their last 92 off an upset loss as a favorite.  Oklahoma City is 33-14 ATS in its last 47 following a close loss by 3 points or less.  The home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They return four starters from a team that went 16-18 last year and improved as the season went on.

Those returning starters are D.J. Newbill (17.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), Brandon Taylor (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg), Donovon Jack (6.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Ross Davis (8.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  Newbill has picked up right where he left off last year, scoring 24.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 rebounds per game thus far.

Penn State is off to a solid 3-1 start this season.  Its only loss came in overtime a few days ago to a very good Charlotte team that has yet to lose this season.  Charlotte plays Miami in the Charleston Classic Championship today.

USC is a team in rebuilding mode.  It went just 11-21 last year, including 2-16 in Pac-12 play.  Now, it has only two starters back from that team in Julian Jacobs (6.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (8.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg).  They lose their top four scorers from last year in Byron Wesley (17.8 ppg), Pe'Shon Howard (10.8 ppg), J.T. Terrell (9.8 ppg) and Omar Oraby (8.2 ppg).

USC is just 2-2 on the season despite playing an extremely soft schedule.  Its two wins have come against Tennessee Tech (70-58) and Drexel (72-70), which are two horrible teams.  It even lost at home to Portland State (68-76) as a 10-point favorite and to Akron (46-66) as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening round of the Charleston Classic.  This team simply is not very good based on these results.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PENN ST) - bad pressure defensive team from last season - forced less than 12 turnovers/game, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 55-26 (67.9%) ATS since 1997.  The Nittany Lions are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 when playing their second game in three days.  Roll with Penn State Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -1.5

I am big on Colorado this season and believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They returned four starters from last year's team that went 23-12 and made the NCAA Tournament.

I backed them in their opener in a 65-48 home win over Drexel as a 14-point favorite.  I wish I would have been on them in their 90-59 home win over Auburn as an 11.5-point favorite last time out.  I'll get back on them tonight as a small road favorite over Wyoming.

Askia Booker, Wesley Gordon, Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott are the four returning starters.  Scott is averaging 19.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games, while Gordon (12.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Johnson (12.5 ppg) and Booker (8.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) have all made significant contributions early.

Wyoming is a solid team that returns four starters from a squad that went 18-15 last year.  I really do believe the Cowboys will be a good bet for most of this season, but just not today as they are overmatched and outclassed.

Also, you have to be concerned if you are a Wyoming backer after its first two games.  It only beat Northern Colorado 78-70 at home as an 11-point favorite followed by a 61-46 victory against Western Colorado State.  Those two results are far from impressive, and they aren't battle-tested at all after playing those two weak opponents.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Wyoming is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a game where it was called for 10 or less fouls.  The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS in thier last eight after two straight games where their opponent grabbed 26 or less rebounds.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Temple +18.5

The Temple Owls are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  I believe that will certainly show tonight as they stay within this huge spread against the Duke Blue Devils in Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Brooklyn, NY tonight.

Temple had a rare down year in 2013-14, going just 9-22.  Even with that poor season, head coach Fran Dunphy is 169-97 in his eight-plus year at Temple.  It was an aberration more than anything as the Owls missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in his eight seasons.

I really like the talent that's back on this Temple team for the 2014-15 season.  It returns three starters in G Will Cummings (16.8 ppg, 4.6 apg in 2013-14), G Quenton DeCosey (15.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and F/C Devontae Watson (2.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg).  They also get 6-7 sophomore Daniel Dngle (6.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg) back from a season-ending knee injury that cut his season short last year.

Temple is off to a 2-0 start this season with one poor performance and one great one.  The 40-37 win over American in the opener looks bad, but American did get to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Patriot League Tournament last year.  It is the favorite to win the Patriot League again in 2014-15 because it returns four starters and almost all of its key players from last year.  So, that win is not as bad as it looks.

The 82-75 win over Louisiana Tech as a 5-point dog last time out was mighty impressive.  Louisiana Tech went 29-8 last year and tied for first in Conference USA.  It brought back four starters from that 29-win team as well, so it is just as strong if not stronger this year.

Without question, Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS, I believe it is overvalued here as an 18.5-point favorite against Temple.  This is also a very tough spot for the Blue Devils emotionally.

They are coming off a huge 81-71 win over Michigan State on Tuesday.  I was on the Blue Devils as 7-point favorites in that game, and so was the betting public as they drove the line all the way up to 8. 

The betting public is all over them again heading into this one, which is why I believe there is value in fading them tonight.  I also think this is a letdown spot for the Blue Devils because they just beat a ranked Michigan State team last time out.

Temple is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last three seasons.  The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Temple is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Owls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC foes.  Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by 18 points or less.  Take Temple Friday.

15* Cavaliers/Wizards ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5

Off back-to-back losses, including a painful 90-92 loss to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers will be very hungry for a victory Friday.  I look for them to roll over the Washington Wizards in blowout fashion as they take their frustration out on John Wall and company.

I have no doubt that Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league despite its mediocre 5-5 start.  It ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions.  It will be up at No. 1 in the league in this category by season's end.

I am also certainly that Washington is overvalued in the early going thanks to making the playoffs last year and its 7-3 start this season.  However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have been feasting on an easy schedule. 

Their three losses have come to the Heat, Raptors and Mavericks, which are the three best teams that they have faced.  Their seven wins have come against the likes of the Magic (twice), Bucks, Knicks, Pacers (twice) and Pistons.  They have yet to beat a team of any significance.

The road team won all four meetings between these teams last year, and the Cavaliers have actually won five of their last seven meetings with the Wizards.  What is most impressive about that is the fact that they didn't have Lebron James OR Kevin Love for any of those seven games.  Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to Washington.  Roll with the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a huge 92-90 win at Cleveland on ESPN Wednesday night, and they aren't going to be able to muster up the kind of focus it's going to take to beat Minnesota by more than 8 points to cover this spread.

Also, look for Greg Popovich to limit his star players' minutes knowing that the Spurs have a game on deck tomorrow against the Nets.  The Spurs don't have much of a bench as it is as they are playing without Tiago Splitter and Patrick Mills, while both Matt Bonner and Marco Belinelli are questionable.

Yes, the Timberwolves are in a bit of a rebuilding phase, and they are off to a poor 3-7 start this season.  They are also battling injuries of their own right now.  Ricky Rubio (ankle), Nikola Pekovic (wrist) and Thaddeus Young (personal) are all expected to be unavailable Friday.

However, scheduling has been the biggest reason for the Timberwolves' poor start.  They have played seven of their first 10 games on the road.  In their three home games, they have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with their only loss coming to the Bulls (105-106) by a single point.

Despite being without Rubio, Young and Pekovic, the Timberwolves put together their most impressive performance of the season in a 115-99 win over the Knicks on Wednesday.  Kevin Martin scored 37 points, Mo Williams had 14 points and 13 assists, and Shabazz Muhammad added 17 points and eight boards in the win.  This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can survive with some injuries.

Minnesota has played San Antonio very tough recently.  In fact, it is 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It won 110-91 as a 7.5-point home dog late last year, 108-95 on the road in 2013, and 107-83 at home in 2013 as well.  It has covered the spread in all four games it was a dog of 7.5 points or more against the Spurs during this stretch.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +9

The Toronto Raptors are a team that I have a lot of respect for and one that I have backed quite a bit in the early going.  However, after a 9-2 start straight up accompanied by a 7-4 ATS mark, this team is now overvalued and worth fading tonight.

The biggest reason I'm going to fade the Raptors tonight is because this is an extremely difficult spot for them emotionally.  They are coming off a 96-92 home win over the top team in the West in Memphis, and now they will be looking ahead to Saturday's game at Cleveland against Lebron James and company.  So, this is a letdown AND lookahead spot for the Raptors.

They won't be giving the kind of attention to the Bucks that they deserve.  Milwaukee is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  It has gone 7-5 straight up and a sensational 9-3 ATS in its 12 games this season.

Even the losses have been competitive as the Bucks have only lost twice all season by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to fail to cover the spread Friday, and I just don't see it happening.  They have won five of their last six, which includes road wins at Miami (91-84) and Brooklyn (122-118).

What I like about this Bucks team is that they defend, and they get that from their head coach Jason Kidd.  They have extraordinary length at almost all positions, and they are giving up just 96.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting.  They rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Rockets, Warriors and Spurs have been better.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home teams (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series, and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  Take the Bucks Friday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Hoosiers +3

The Indiana Hoosiers should not be an underdog at home to the SMU Mustangs tonight.  SMU is way overvalued here due to its No. 22 ranking.  That showed last time out in a 56-72 road loss at Gonzaga, and they have no business being the favorite after that performance.

Sure, there is a lot to like about SMU this season.  It went 27-10 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.  It brought bring back three starters from that team, but the most important starter is out right now.

SMU forward Marcus Kennedy is being forced to sit out due to eligibility issues.  He is the team's second-leading returning scorer (12.4 ppg) and top rebounder (7.1 rpg) from last year.  That means they are down to two returning starters.  They shot just 31.1% against Gonzaga last time out.

Indiana only has two starters back this year as well, but it returns its most important player in PG Yogi Ferrell (19.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) from last year.  Also back is PF Troy Willaims (7.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and SG Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

I expect Indiana to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year, and that has shown already.  It beat Mississippi Valley State 116-65 and Texas Southern 83-64 while shooting a combined 61.7% against those teams.  It has shown improvement from deep, connecting on 55.3% of its 3-pointers this season.  They are tough to deal with because of their elite guard play.

"We're starting to formalize an offensive identity and I think when we look at our backcourt right now, what we envision is starting to come into place and we're basically playing with three point guards," coach Tom Crean said. "Ball movement should be a strength for us. It has to be."

Indiana is 12-2 at home against ranked opponents since the start of 2011-12.  They have won their last four, all against Big Ten opponents, while shooting 51.2 percent from the field.  Ferrell has averaged 20.0 points per game in those four games.

It's worth noting that Williams, Robinson and freshman Emmitt Holt are due back from suspensions tonight.  "I know they are anxious to get back. We are anxious to have them back, too," junior Nick Zeisloft said. "They will add a lot to our team."

The Hoosiers are 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games when the line is +3 to -3.  Tom Crean is 14-5 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of Indiana.  Crean is 22-9 ATS in November games as the coach of Indiana.  The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Bet Indiana Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Drexel +10

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off a 69-67 road win at in-state rival Florida on Monday.  They will simply have a hard time matching the intensity level they played with in that game when they take on Drexel in the Charleston Classic today.

Florida is way down this season with all that it lost last year.  It has not played well in the early going, so that win over the Gators has the Hurricanes overvalued here.  This is a Miami team that went just 17-16 last year and returns only two starters from that squad.

Drexel comes in battle-tested after taking on two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last year in Colorado and St. Joseph's.  It didn't get destroyed in either game.  It lost by 17 at Colorado as a 14-point dog and at home to St. Joseph's 49-52 as a 3-point favorite.

Miami loses five players from last year's team that scored at least 5.0 ppg or more.  That includes Rion Brown (15.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Garrius Adams (10.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Donnavan Kirk (7.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Its two returning starters are Manu Lecomte (7.7 ppg, 2.3 apg) and Tonye Jekiri (4.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg).  Transfers Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriquez are solid, but this team just doesn't have that much talent.

Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (MIAMI) - slow-down team from last season averaging 53 or less shots/game, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3-point shots or better are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Hurricanes are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  The Dragons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with Drexel Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma Sooners -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Creighton won 84 games over the past three seasons thanks to an offense that lit up the scoreboard.  However, it is now in rebuilding mode under fourth-year head coach Greg McDermott, who rode son Doug McDermott to all this success in his first three years here.  McDermott was the consensus National Player of the Year and will be missed.

The Bluejays lose four starters from last year in McDermott (26.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg), Ethan Wragge (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg), Grant Gibbs (7.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Jahenns Manigat (7.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  The only returning starter is G Austin Chatman (8.1 ppg, 4.4 apg).

I haven't been all that impressed with Creighton thus far in its 104-77 home win over Central Arkansas and its 84-66 home win against Chicago State.  It was a 24-point favorite against Chicago State and only won by 18 while shooting 44.8% from the floor and committing 17 turnovers.

Lon Kruger is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less in all games he has coached since 1997.  Kruger is 24-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1997.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Creighton is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors -2

The Toronto Raptors are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA again this season.  They made the playoffs last year and are well on their way to challenging for the top spot in the Eastern Conference in 2014-15.

The Raptors returned almost all of their scoring from last year, and they are off to an 8-2 start this season, which is good for 1st place in the East thus far.  Their only two losses have come against the Heat and Bulls.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game.

While the Raptors aren't getting much credit for their 8-2 start, the Grizzlies are way overvalued due to their 10-1 start this season that has them in first place in the West.  This team isn't as good as their record as they have simply been fortunate in close games.

Seven of their 10 wins have come by single-digits this season.  They are in a massive letdown spot here off their impressive 119-93 home win over the Houston Rockets on Monday, which was for first place in the West.  They won't be bringing the kind of intensity it takes to beat the hungry Raptors tonight.

Toronto actually swept the season series with Memphis last year in two blowout victories.  It won 103-87 as a 6-point road underdog to the Grizzlies on November 13th, and it came back and put a 99-86 beat down on the Grizzlies as a 1-point home underdog in the rematch on March 14th.

Memphis is 2-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 8-27 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  Toronto is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Western Conference foes.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Toronto Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Cavaliers ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -2.5

Lebron James hasn't forgotten the sting of losing to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals last season.  I look for him to play with an extra edge tonight to help his new Cleveland Cavaliers knock off the defending champs at home going away.

The Cavaliers had really been playing very well prior to their 97-106 loss to Denver on Monday.  They had won four in a row, including a 127-94 victory over Atlanta the game prior.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game during that loss to the Nuggets.

The Spurs haven't resembled the defending champs at all.  They have already lost four games this season, including losses to the Kings, Suns, Pelicans and Rockets (81-98).  They have gone just 4-6 ATS in all games and have been overvalued all season.  They are again tonight only catching 2.5 points to the Cavaliers when it should be more.

One of the reasons the Spurs haven't been up to their level of play from last year is that they have been playing without starting center Tiago Splitter and key reserves Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli.  They remain without this underrated trio tonight against Cleveland.

The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.   The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Wednesday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet Cleveland Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -7

Without question, the Duke Blue Devils are a more talented team than the Michigan State Spartans in 2014-15.  I look for them to make easy work of the Spartans tonight in Indianapolis in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN.

Duke returns three starters from last year in PG Quinn Cook (11.6 ppg, 4.4 apg), SG Rasheed Sulaimon (9.9 ppg, 2.4 apg) and PF Amile Jefferson (6.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg).  It adds in one of the most talented freshman classes in the country in C Jahlil Okafor, PG Tyus Jones and SF Justise Winslow.

The Blue Devils are off to a fast start this season, beating Presbyterian 113-44 as a 39-point favorite, and topping Fairfield 109-59 as a 32.5-point favorite. Okafor (18.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and Winslow (16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg) have led the way in scoring, while Jones (10.5 ppg, 6.0 apg) has also helped show that Mike Krzyzewski has struck gold with this freshman class.

Michigan State is in rebuilding mode in 2014-15.  It lost its top three scorers from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  It does bring back Branden Dawson (11.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), Denzel Valentine (8.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Travis Trice (7.3 ppg), but the loss of top freshman Javon Bess to a foot injury is really hurting this team.

The Spartans have been notorious for slow starts and big finishes under Tom Izzo, and 2014-15 is no exception.  They barely beat Navy 64-59 as a 17.5-point favorite in their opener on November 14th.  That's a Navy team that has gone 20-70 over the past three seasons combined, including 9-21 last year.  The Spartans stand little chance of being competitive against the Blue Devils tonight.

Duke owns Michigan State, going 7-1 in its last eight meetings with the Spartans dating back to 1998.  That included a 71-61 win during the 2012-13 NCAA Tournament as a 2-point favorite.  Many of these meetings have been close, which is why Michigan State is 5-3 ATS, but I don't anticipate this game to go down to the wire at all given the discrepancy in talent.

Plays on neutral court teams (DUKE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Duke Tuesday.

15* Bulls/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers are way undervalued right now due to their poor start to the season against the spread.  They have gone 5-3 straight up just 1-7 ATS, making the betting public gun-shy to back them.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back them as small home favorites over the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers come in well-rested as this will be just their second game in the past seven days.  All this extra time off has allowed them to correct their mistakes in practice, and they should be putting forth great efforts going forward.

Los Angeles is coming off its best performance of the season on Saturday.  It beat a very good Phoenix team 120-107 as just a 7-point favorite.  It shot 52.9% from the field and held the Suns to 38.4% shooting.  It has four days off before that game, so the extra practice time certainly paid off, and it should again tonight.

Chicago just can't catch a break with Derrick Rose.  He is now dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss their last game against Indiana.  The Bulls lost to the Pacers 90-99 despite being 8.5-point favorites in that game.  Rose is doubtful to play tonight as well, so look for this Chicago offense to struggle once again without him.

The Clippers have dominated the Bulls the past two seasons.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with Chicago, winning those four games by an average of a ridiculous 20.5 points per game.  They won 112-95 on the road and 121-82 at home against the Bulls int heir two meetings last year.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest.  The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Stan Van Gundy, the new head coach in Detroit, certainly wants to stick it to his former team in Orlando.  The Pistons will be playing hard for their coach, and they'll be happy to return home from a grueling four-game road trip to take in the Magic tonight.

The Pistons grew up in that road trip as they played very competitively against some of the league's elite teams.  They went just 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS as all four games were competitive.  The lost 91-102 at Chicago, 103-107 at Washington, 88-95 at Memphis, and beat Oklahoma City 96-89.

The Orlando Magic are an improved team this season, but they are still just 4-7 and come into this game way overvalued against the more talented Pistons.  The Magic are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and that's why oddsmakers aren't giving them as many points as they should be.  The betting public has taken notice of this 6-0 ATS streak, and now it's time to fade the overvalued Magic.

As poor as Orlando has been on the road over the past two years, there's no way it should only be catching four points here.  Indeed, the Magic are an NBA-worst 6-42 on the road since the start of last season.

Making matters worse for the Magic is that they are a very tired team right now.  They have played four of their last five games on the road, and this will be their 5th game in 7 days.  They had games on the 11th, 12th, 14th and 15th of November.  They simply have nothing left in the tank right now.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team won all three meetings last year in blowout fashion by 14 points or more.  The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings as well.  Detroit is 30-11 in its last 41 home meetings with Orlando. 

The Magic are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 road games.  Orlando is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game.  The Magic are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Roll with the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Hoosiers -23

The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They were an inexperienced team last year as they had to replace most of their scoring from a team that won the Big Ten Championship in 2012-12.  They finished just 17-15.

Bigger things can be expected of the Hoosiers this year as they'll be much more experienced.  They return two starters in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg 2013-14) and Troy Williams (7.3 ppg, 4.4 apg).  They also return some key reserves led by Stanford Robinson (6.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg).

Indiana will have one of the better backcourts in the Big Ten led by Ferrell.  Freshman James Blackmon Jr. was a McDonald's All-American and one of the nation's top 3-point shooters as a high schooler and should be one of Indiana's top scorers this year.  Robinson will see a lot more time this year, and freshman Robert Johnson figures to get some run as well.

The Hoosiers put on a clinic in their opener in a 116-65 win over Mississippi Valley State as a 27-point favorite, covering the spread by a ridiculous 24 points.  They had five different players score 15 points or more, led by Blackmon Jr's 25 points.  They shot 66.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 73.0% from the free throw line.

Texas Southern is not a very good team.  It did go a respectable 19-15 last year in the second season under head coach Mike Davis.  Now, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference in 2014-15 with all they lose.

It's going to be impossible to replace SWAC Player of the Year Aaric Murray, who led the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 21.6 points and 2.5 blocks per game.  They lose four starters in all with the other three being DD. Scarver (12.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), De'Angelo Scott (7.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Lawrence Johnson-Danner (7.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).

Texas Southern was expected to return one starter in Madarious Gibbs (9.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg) and top bench player Jose Rodriquez (11.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  However, both of these guys are hurt to start the season.  Rodriguez is out for the year with a knee injury, while Gibbs is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  So, the Tigers will essentially be playing without each of their top six scorers from last year.

It wasn't a pretty start for Texas Southern, which lost its opener by a final of 62-86 at Eastern Washington.  It shot just 30.0% (18-60) from the floor while allowing Eastern Washington to shoot 50% (32-64).  If they can lose by 24 points to EW on the road, they will certainly lose by 24-plus to Indiana tonight.

Plays on favorites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, in November games are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1997.  Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick (INDIANA) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record are 70-33 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Indiana Monday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas -28.5

The Texas Longhorns are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year and put an end to Kansas' 10-year streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Rick Barnes got off the hot seat last season by leading his young squad to 24 wins and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.  Barnes now has all five starters back from last year, and he has added in the one of the nation's most highly-coveted freshmen in PF Myles Turner.  The Longhorns return their top six scorers and two key reserves from last year as well.

Turner's ability to hit outside shots allows C Cameron Ridley (11.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg in 2012-13) room to dominate down low.  PG Isaiah Taylor (12.7 ppg, 4.0 apg, 3.3 rpg) was one of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 last year.  SF Jonathan Holmes (12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and SG Javan Felix (11.6 ppg, 2.8 apg) are two more returning starters on this deep, deep team.

The Longhorns had little trouble in Friday's 85-50 victory as an 18-point favorite against a solid North Dakota State squad.  Taylor had 18 points and seven rebounds, while Turner added 15 points and six boards in only 20 minutes.  Texas shot 48.4 percent and held the Bison to 27.4 while outrebounding them 51-32.

Alcorn State went just 12-19 last year.  While it does return three starters and two of its top three scorers from last year, it is clear that it's going to be a long season for the Braves.  They shot just 31.6 percent and allowed Cal to shoot 52.1 percent in a 91-57 road loss on Friday.  If Cal can beat Alcorn State by 34 points, I have little doubt that this talented Texas team will win by 29-plus at home.

Plays on a favorite (TEXAS) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Rick Barnes is 38-24 ATS in November games as the coach of Texas.  Bet Texas Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons struggled in the early going and are just 3-6 on the season.  That's why they are so undervalued right now because of this slow start, but they have been playing much better since an 0-3 start.

Indeed, the Pistons have won three of their last six games overall, including a 96-89 road win at Oklahoma City last night.  They lost to Utah (96-97) at home, and lost to Chicago (91-102) and Washington (103-107) both on the road.  They have been very competitive in each of their last six games, and their biggest loss all season has come by 12 points.

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.  They are 8-1 on the season, but nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.  Indeed, all eight of their wins have come by 12 points or less, including six by 8 points or fewer.

The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall showing how overvalued they have been of late.  They only beat Oklahoma City 91-89 as a 7-point favorite, lost to Milwaukee 92-93 as a 4.5-point favorite, beat the Lakers 107-102 as a 10-point favorite, and beat the Kings 111-110 as a 5-point favorite in their last four games, respectively. 

I would argue that the Pistons are as good or better than all four of those teams that played Memphis down to the wire.  The Grizzlies came from way behind to beat the Kings on Thursday, and got the game-winner with only a few ticks remaining from Courtney Lee.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here as well off such an emotional comeback win.

Detroit is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Pistons are 12-2 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last three seasons.  Memphis is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games after three straight games where it committed 14 or fewer turnovers.  The Pistons are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Grizzlies are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +9

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have won four of their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games.

What I like most about the Magic is that they don't get blown out too often.  They have only lost by double-digits twice all season, and those game way back early in the year in their 1st and 3rd games of the season against the Pelicans and Raptors, which are two of the best teams in the NBA.

Orlando has really been stockpiling talent, and it's starting to pay off.  Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.6 rpg), Evan Fournier (17.9 ppg) and Tobias Harris (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are really having solid seasons.  These aren't your household names, but this trio ranks right up there with the very best in the league.

The Wizards are 6-2 this season, but I believe they are a big overvalued here because of it.  Their six wins have come against the likes of Orlando (105-98), Milwaukee, New York, Indiana (twice) and Detroit.  All five of those teams that their six wins have come against currently have losing records on the season.  Only two of their twins have come by more than 7 points this year.

Sure, the Wizards did beat the Magic earlier this season by 7 points, but that just puts the Magic in revenge mode heading into this one.  That should help them overcome the tough 4 games in 5 nights situation, which is the reason this line is as high as it is.  They will use that motivation to help them push through possibly having tired legs, though fatigue isn't as big of a factor this early in the year.

Washington is 12-23 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Washington is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State -10

The Florida State Seminoles are a big-time sleeper in the ACC this season in my opinion.  They return a ton of talent from last year's squad that went 22-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, narrowly missing out on a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  They did reach the NIT semifinals and will be hungry to make the big dance in 2014-15

I like their chances of doing so with four returning starters from that squad.  They are G Devon Bookert (8.5 ppg), C Boris Bojanovsky (5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.9 bpg), G Aaron Thomas (14.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Montay Brandon (7.7 ppg, 4.9 apg).  Thomas averaged 18.2 ppg after he became a starter on February 5th.

The Seminoles have five guys who can play the point.  Their season would really take off if Xavier Rathan-Mayes, who was their top recruit last year but was declared ineligible, can shake off the rust from his year off and take control of the job like the FSU staff envisioned a year ago.

The Manhattan Jaspers won the MAAC Tournament championship and played in the NCAA Tournament last year.  They come into the 2014-15 season overvalued because of that fact and their 25-8 record from last year.  They aren't going to be nearly as good this season.

The Jaspers return just two starters from last year in RaShawn Stores (4.9 ppg, 1.9 apg) and Ashton Pankey (7.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  They lose three starters in Georga Beamon (18.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), Michael Alvarado (11.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Rhamel Brown (10.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  So, they lose their top three scorers from last year, so obviously they are going to take a step back.

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

Plays on a favorite (FLORIDA ST) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -6.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have one of the most talented rosters in the league with the likes of Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon.  This team is a real playoff contender in the West.

The Pelicans have been playing like it in their last four games.  They beat Charlotte 100-91 at home, went on the road and beat the defending champion Spurs 100-99, only lost 111-118 at Cleveland, which is the favorite to win the title this year, and beat the Lakers 109-102 last time out in a game they once led by 23.

While New Orleans already has the pieces to be a contender, Minnesota is in full-blown rebuilding mode.  It is just 2-5 on the season with its only wins coming against Brooklyn and Detroit.  It has really struggled since losing starting point guard Ricky Rubio to an ankle injury.

Indeed, the Timberwolves have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all without Rubio.  They lost 103-112 at Orlando, 92-102 at Miami, and 101-113 against Houston in Mexico City.  I believe a fourth straight blowout defeat will be the Timberwolves' fate tonight.

Minnesota hasn't been good at either end of the floor.  It is shooting just 43.8% while ranking 20th in the league in offensive efficiency.  It is allowing 102.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting while ranking 19th in defensive efficiency.

Home-court advantage has been huge in recent meetings between these teams.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.  New Orleans is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

20* College Hoops 2014-15 Season Opener on Colorado -14

The Colorado Buffaloes enter the 2014-15 season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They aren't even ranked in the Top 25 even though they should be with what they have coming back from last year's 23-12 squad that made the NCAA Tournament.  They should also be laying more than 14 points to Drexel in the opener.

The Buffaloes did make the tournament last year, but lost to Pittsburgh handily 77-48.  They now have 8-by-10-inch signs taped to every office window, above urinals, in the locker, in the weight room, and taped to TV monitors that say PITTSBURGH 77, COLORADO 48.  They have used it as motivation all offseason and will be ready to go tonight.

The Buffaloes return four starters from last season in G Askia Booker (13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.3 spg), F Xavier Johnson (12.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg), F Wesley Gordon (5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg) and F Josh Scott (14.1 ppg, 8.4 RPG), who is Colorado's next NBA candidate.  So, they have a ton of experience returning from last year and should be strong right out of the gates because of it.

Head coach Tad Boyle also landed two-time Colorado Mr. Basketball and Gatorade Player of the Year in G Dominique Collier, who dominated the prep level with 23.4 points, 3.5 steals and 3.7 assists per game.  He is CU's most exciting Denver Public Schools signee since Chauncey Billups.

Boyle has implemented a new, quicker-tempo offense designed to spread the court and make it difficult for teams to double-team Scott and the other bigs down low, which Pittsburgh did last March in its rout of the Buffaloes.  This up-tempo offense will also make it more likely that the Buffaloes can cover bigger spreads such as this 14-point number.

Drexel is coming off a 16-14 season from a year ago, finishing 4th in the Colonial Athletic Association with an 8-8 conference record.  While this team has made some noise in year's past dating back to their run to the Final Four a few years back, the outlook on the Dragons simply is not very good in 2014.

They return just two starters from last year.  However, one of those was Major Canady, who has been lost for the season with an ankle injury.  The other is Rodney Williams (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  They do return some key reserves in Tavon Allen (11.7 ppg) and Damion Lee (13.0 ppg), but both of those guys are battling injuries to start the season, even though they are listed as probable to play tonight.

The losses were huge this offseason for the Dragons.  They part ways with each of their top two scorers in Chris Fouch (18.3 ppg) and Frantz Massenat (17.5 ppg, 4.5 apg).  They also lose top rebounder Dartaye Ruffin (5.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  It's going to be tough sledding for head coach Bruiser Flint in the early going in 2014-15 without these guys.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It clearly has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country as well.  Drexel went just 8-10 in road games where is scored 67.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting last year.

Plays on a favorite (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 67-30 (69.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on favorites 10 or more points (COLORADO) - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Colorado Friday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Lakers +9.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are way overvalued at this point in the season due to their 1-5 start.  That's the reason I backed them against the Hornets in a 107-92 home win on Sunday, and it's the same reason I'm on them again here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Lakers started 0-5 due to a brutal schedule, not necessarily because of poor play.  They had to face the Rockets, Suns (twice), Clippers and Warriors in their first five games.  Those are four contenders in the West who all have winning records on the year. 

The Lakers also had to play four games in five days, which is one of the toughest situations for any NBA team.  They were doomed from the start, and I really believe this team is better than they are getting credit for because the chips were stacked against them early.

Now, Los Angeles has had ample time to rest this will be just its second game in the past seven days.  It should come into Memphis playing with a ton of confidence after its best performance of the season in that 15-point win over Charlotte.

Memphis, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued due to its 6-1 start.  Four of its six wins have come by eight points or less.  It proved to be vulnerable last time out, falling 92-93 at Milwaukee despite being a 4.5-point favorite. 

This team is simply getting too much respect from the books from its fast start against a soft schedule.  Only one of its six wins thus far has come against a team that currently has a winning record, and that is Phoenix (4-3).

Los Angeles was bad last year, yet it played Memphis very tough in all four games.  Only once did it lose by more than five points.  The first three games were all decided by 5 points or less, while the other resulted in a 102-90 win by the Grizzlies late in the season when they were a 12-point favorite and the Lakers had nothing to play for.

The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 over the last two seasons.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games after playing a game as a road favorite over the last two years.  Los Angeles is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 vs. poor passing teams that average 20 or fewer assists per game.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Spurs/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs Monday night.  They will have a packed house for this one as they take on the defending champs, and I look for them to come away with a win and cover.

The Spurs have looked like anything but champions up to this point.  They are just 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS on the season.  Their two wins came by a combined three points at home over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  I have faded them three times with success this year, and for many of the same reasons as I will be tonight.

San Antonio may finally be done for.  It's a little too early to tell, but this team has been very slow out of the gate.  A big reason for that is its lack of depth.  Key reserve Patty Mills is out until February, starting center Tiago Spitter is out indefinitely, and sharpshooter Marco Belinelli is expected to miss a fourth straight game tonight with a groin injury.

Los Angeles is 4-2 this season, yet it is a woeful 0-6 ATS.  That means that both of these teams have yet to cover a spread.  However, the value is with the Clippers because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to want to back the defending champs rather than the Clippers in this one.  That's why they are giving us such a short, generous price on the home favorites.

While I do believe the Spurs are broken right now, I don't believe the Clippers' slow start is because they aren't a good team.  They simply haven't played up to their potential, which shows how good of a team this really is if they can put together a 4-2 record playing that way.

Blake Griffin showed a lot of heart in their last game Saturday as he battled a sickness and easily could have sat out.  Instead, he led the comeback in the second half after trailing by 9 points to help give the Clippers a 106-102 win over the Blazers.  That performance earned him a lot of respect from his teammates, and these guys should rally around him tonight against the defending champs.

“It was an amazing effort,” guard Chris Paul told reporters. “(Griffin) looked like he was about to die at halftime. He was laid out in there, but it shows how selfless he is, sacrificing for the team.”

The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Clippers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

Admittedly, the Los Angeles Lakers aren't a very good team.  That's evident by their 0-5 start to the season that has seen them go just 1-3-1 against the spread.  However, this winless start is also the reason the Lakers are showing such great value Sunday.

A closer look at their 0-5 start shows that it has been more due to a brutal schedule than anything.  The Lakers have lost their five games to the Warriors, Rockets, Clippers and Suns, four teams that have a combined 18-5 record on the season.  They even hung tough in home losses to the Clippers (111-118) and Suns (106-112).

Los Angeles is going to be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to put an end to this skid.  It will be well-rested and ready to go since it last played on November 4th.  That means it has had four days in between games to rest and get prepared for the Bobcats.  Expect the Lakers to put fourth their best effort of the season as they finally avoid having to face a Western Conference contender, and now they get to play a weak team from the East.

Sure, the Charlotte Hornets made the playoffs last year and are an improved team since signing Al Jefferson last year, but they have no business being favored on the road here.  Their three wins have all come at home, while they are 0-2 on the road.  Also, they are in a letdown spot here after their double-overtime win over Atlanta on Friday in which Lance Stephenson banked home a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The Lakers have won five of their last six meetings with the Hornets.  Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - off a home loss against a division rival, on Sunday games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 20-39 ATS in their last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings in this series.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* Pelicans/Spurs Western Conference No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The San Antonio Spurs are the defending champions, but they have looked like anything but that through their first four games of the season.  They have no business being this heavily favored against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight as things aren't going to get better any time soon for the Spurs.

San Antonio has opened 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with its two victories coming at home against Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92) by a combined three points.  It has also lost on the road at Phoenix (89-94) and at Houston (81-98).

What is troubling the Spurs right now are injuries to several key role players that are going unnoticed.  Backup PG Patty Mills is out until February with a shoulder injury.  Starting center Tiago Splitter is out with a calf injury.  Also, sharp-shooting reserve guard Marco Belinelli is out with a groin injury.  The Spurs just don't have the depth they did last season.

The Pelicans have opened 2-2 with blowout home wins over Orlando (101-84) and Charlotte (100-91), while losing to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in Dallas (104-109) and Memphis (81-93).

I would go as far to say that the Pelicans are one of the Top 5 most talented teams in the NBA and are a sleeper to win the Western Conference.  They are finally healthy for the start of the season, which has been a problem for them over the last couple of seasons.

New Orleans added Omer Asik (10.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) in the offseason, and he teams with Anthony Davis (23.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 4.0 BPG) to provide arguably the best defensive frontcourt tandem in the NBA. 

Tyreke Evans (17.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.0 APG), Jrue Holiday (14.5 PPG, 6.2 APG), Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and Eric Gordon (5.8 PPG) are fully capable of carrying the offense on any given night.  I'm telling you, this is an extremely talented roster that the rest of the West needs to watch out for going forward.

Monte Williams is a very profitable 81-58 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of New Orleans.  The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents. 

I believe the San Antonio championship hangover continues tonight against a New Orleans team that is deeper and more talented than them right now.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Blazers/Clippers NBA Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

Despite their 3-2 record, the Los Angeles Clippers have not played well at all up to this point.  They are coming off a 104-121 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, and head coach Doc Rivers cannot be pleased with his team's performance.

Look for the Clippers to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Blazers.  They have had two days to correct their mistakes in practice since they last played on Wednesday.  I fully expect their best effort of the season in this one.

Portland is in a big letdown spot here after demolishing both Cleveland and Dallas in its last two games.  I believe this team is overvalued as a result, especially since it has played four of its first five games at home.  In their only road game, the Blazers lost to the Kings by a final of 94-103.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, is way undervalued right now due to its poor play early.  In fact, it has failed to cover a single spread this year, going 0-5 ATS.  That's why we're getting the Clippers as only 4-point home favorites in this game, and we'll take advantage of this gift from the books.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Blazers and Clippers.  Indeed, the home team has won six straight meetings between these teams.  The Clippers are 5-0 in their last five home meetings with the Blazers with their last three wins coming by an average of 11.3 points per game.

Plays on any team (LA CLIPPERS) - horrible defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=50% on the season, averaging 48 or less rebounds/game on the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

20* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland -4.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to come out highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have opened the season 1-3 and have not played up to their potential at all yet.  They have also played a tough schedule with three of their first four on the road against the likes of Chicago, Portland and Utah.

Lebron James and Kyrie Irving had a talk after losing at the buzzer to the Jazz on Wednesday.  From all accounts it was a productive talk, and it revolved around not being able to win when you only have six assists in a game as they did against Utah.

I look for both James and Irving to try and get their teammates more involved in this one, and the shooting percentage is going to increase as a result.  After all, the Cavs are only shooting 40.5% from the field this year, which is absurd and won't last.  Not when they have three superstars in James, Irving and Kevin Love.

Look for the Cavaliers to get back on track tonight against a Denver team that has not been impressive at all.  The Nuggets are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS through four games this year.  They are also shooting just 40.6% from the field, and while that will get better as well, they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cavaliers here.

Denver's only win this season came against Detroit at home, which has just one win itself.  Its three losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma City (91-102) and Sacramento twice.  After falling 105-110 to the Kings on Monday, they came back and fell by a final of 109-131 to the Kings again on Wednesday.  Those three results against teams that aren't very good show that the Nuggets are in trouble.

The Nuggets are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.  The Cavaliers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -4

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They returned almost their entire roster from last season, and this team is a real sleeper in the East in 2014-15.  You can tell that by how impressive they have looked in their 4-1 start.

Toronto has beaten Atlanta (109-102) and Oklahoma City (100-88) at home, as well as Orlando (108-95) and Boston (110-107) on the road.  Its only loss came at Miami by a final of 102-107.  What makes this 4-1 start so impressive is the fact that the Raptors had to play a stretch of 4 games in 5 nights.

Adding to that is the fact that the Raptors have had to play three games without Amir Johnson and one game without Jonas Valanciunas, who are their two starting frontcourt players.  Well, both Johnson and Valanciunas are listed as probable tonight and expected to suit up.

Washington is also 4-1, but its start has been much less impressive.  Its four wins have come against the likes of Orlando, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana.  It lost at Miami 95-107 for its only defeat.  Both Orlando and Milwaukee are young teams rebuilding, New York is lost in the new Triangle Offense, and Indiana is playing without four of its five starters from last year.

Toronto is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Washington.  All four wins came by 8 points or more, while its only loss came in overtime.  The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Toronto.  The Raptors are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Houston -3

Without question, the Houston Rockets are a contender in the Western Conference this season.  I would go as far to say that they have impressed me more than any other team thus far in 2014, and right now, they are the best team in the NBA.

They have opened the season 5-0 while winning their games in strikingly similar fashion.  They beat the Lakers (108-90), Jazz (104-93), Celtics (104-90), 76ers (104-93) and Heat (108-91).  Sure, this 5-0 start hasn't exactly been against the greatest competition, but four of the five wins came on the road.

It's statistically the best start in franchise history.  They've outscored opponents by 71 points in the five wins.  Blowing out the Heat and Jazz on their home floors on the second night of back-to-backs should not be taken lightly.  The Jazz have beaten both the Suns and Cavs at home, while the Heat had been shredding opponents until running into Dwight Howard and company.  They scored just 36 points in the second half.

Houston is not missing Chandler Parsons one bit.  Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league as a 3-and-D specialist.  They are actually winning with defense this year because Ariza, Howard and Beverly are three of the better defenders in the league at their positions.  The Beverly-Parsons-Howard trio averaged 103.2 points allowed every 100 possessions last year.  It's down to 90.2 points every 100 possessions with the Beverly-Ariza-Howard trio thus far in 2014-15.

The Spurs may be the defending champs, but thus far, they look like anything but a championship contender.  Sure, they are 2-1 this season, but their two victories came by a combined three points with home wins over Dallas (101-100) and Atlanta (94-92).  They lost at Phoenix in their only road game by a final of 89-94. 

San Antonio will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after narrowly escaping with a victory over the Hawks last night.  It does not have as much depth as last year because key reserve Patty Mills is not expected to return until February due to a shoulder injury.  Marco Belinelli left with a groin injury against the Hawks last night and did not return.  Tiago Splitter returned last night, but aggravated a calf injury.  Both Belinelli and Splitter are questionable to play Thursday.

Houston has owned San Antonio the last season-plus.  It is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Spurs.  It has held San Antonio to less than 100 points in four of those five games, while scoring 104-plus in three of the last four.  I look for this series domination to continue Thursday night.

The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.  The Rockets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with the Rockets.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing Houston.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

I've seen enough from Boston this season to know it is an improved team over a year ago.  It opened the season with a blowout 121-105 home victory over Brooklyn before back-to-back road losses to Houston and Dallas, two of the best teams in the West.  It only lost 113-118 at Dallas last time out.

Jeff Green has really stepped up his play this year, averaging 23.0 points per game.  Avery Bradley (17.7), Jared Sullinger (13.7) and Kelly Olynyk (10.7) have all improved this year as well.  Having a healthy Rajon Rondo (8.0 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.7 RPG) back this year has made a world of difference for this team.

While the Celtics are improved this year, this is more of a play against Toronto than anything.  I actually believe that the Raptors are one of the sleepers in the East, but they are in a very tough spot tonight. 

They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is about as tough a situation as you will find in the NBA.  They are already tired even this early in the season, and it will show tonight.  The Raptors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.

Making matters worse for the Raptors is that they could be without both of their starting frontcourt players tonight.  Amir Johnson is out with an ankle injury, while Jonas Valunciunas is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game with a facial contusion.

The home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings between these teams.  Boston is 25-9 straight up in its last 34 home meetings with Toronto.  The Raptors are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Boston.  As you can see, home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Take the Celtics Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -3

Despite losses in each of their last two games and a 1-2 start to the season, I still believe the New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have lost their last two games against Western Conference powers Dallas and Memphis, but now they get a weak Eastern Conference team at home to get right tonight.

The Pelicans opened with a weak team from the East in Orlando and swiftly beat the Magic 101-84.  The problem for the Pelicans has been on offense, where they are only shooting 39.1% on the season.  Obviously, they aren't going to shoot this badly all season with the talented guys they have in the likes of Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

The biggest reason that the Pelicans are a much better team this year is the addition of Omer Asik at center, who combines with Davis to clean up the glass and alter shots.  Davis is averaging 13.3 boards and Asik is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game.  The Pelicans are 3rd in the league in offensive rebound rate, grabbing 31.8 percent of their misses.  These two will help control the focal point of the Charlotte offense, which is Al Jefferson inside.

I believe the Hornets came into the season way overvalued after making the playoffs last year.  That has shown as they have gone 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS with their only victory coming against Milwaukee by a final of 108-106 in overtime at home.  Their only cover this season came by a half-point last time out at New York in a 93-96 loss.  Simply put, this team doesn't have the talent to match up with New Orleans.

The Pelicans have won six of their last eight meetings with the Bobcats/Hornets franchise.  In fact, Charlotte has only averaged 86.2 points and has topped 100 only once while going 2-8 all-time at New Orleans.

Charlotte is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 versus poor 3-point shooting teams that make 30% or less of their attempts.  The Hornets are 20-38 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.  Charlotte is 32-61 ATS in its last 93 against Southwest division opponents.  The Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. 

The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Eastern Conference foes.  New Orleans is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 trips to New Orleans.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Rockets/Heat Battle of Unbeatens on Miami -1

The Miami Heat are showing tremendous value as a small home favorites over the Houston Rockets this season.  The Heat are on a mission to prove that they don't need Lebron James, and they are off to a good start by going 3-0 with wins over the likes of the Wizards, 76ers and Raptors.

Houston is off to a perfect 4-0 start itself that has it overvalued here.  The Rockets couldn't have faced a much softer schedule to this point as their four wins have come against the likes of the Lakers, Jazz, Celtics and 76ers.  They haven't proven anything yet against that schedule.

This is a very tough spot for the Rockets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning at Philadelphia 104-93 last night.  Plus, they could be caught looking ahead to their game against the defending champion Spurs on Thursday night.

Miami has won eight of its last nine meetings with Houston.  The Heat have won 14 of their last 18 home meetings with the Rockets as well.  Getting them as a small home favorite here in this tough spot for the Rockets is simply a gift from oddsmakers.

The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rockets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +10

I fully expect the Sacramento Kings to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  They didn't show that in their opener as they lost by 18 to Golden State and shot just 30.8% from the floor while committing 26 turnovers.

The Kings cleaned up their play last time out and beat Portland 103-94 as a 4.5-point underdog.  They still only shot 42% from the floor, but their defense held the Blazers to just 41% shooting.  They also committed just 10 turnovers as they put an emphasis on taking care of the ball.

This Kings team has plenty of talent to be competitive.  DeMarcus Cousins is one of the most underrated centers in the league as he's a 20 & 10 guy almost every night.  Rudy Gay, who scored 40 points against the Blazers, is still one of the best scorers in the game.

Darren Collison will be taking this game personal as he gets a chance to go against his former team.  He has been dynamite in two games this season.  He had 17 points, eight boards, eight assists and three steals in the win over the Blazers.  He is a solid point guard who, like Cousins, is under-appreciated.

I really have not been impressed with the Clippers in their first two games.  Their sloppy played has carried over from a 2-6 preseason.  Sure, they are 2-0 in the regular season, but they are fortunate to be unbeaten to this point and should not be laying double-digits to the Kings tonight.

The Clippers beat the Thunder 93-90 at home as a 13-point favorite.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and shouldn't have been able to hang around, but they did.  The Clippers also beat the Lakers 118-111 as 11.5-point favorites in a game that was tied with under two minutes to go.  The Lakers are arguably the least-talented team in the league this year.

Sacramento has played Los Angeles very tough on the road in recent years.  The Kings have only lost once to the Clippers by more than nine points in the past six meetings.  Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  The Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons are 0-2 right now and undervalued as a result.  They played two tough road games against Western Conference opponents in Denver and Minnesota and were competitive in each.  Now, they head back to Detroit for the start of a four-game home stand against Brooklyn.

The Pistons went 5-2 in the preseason and are clearly going to be improved this season under new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  He has preached defense, and his team has responded in allowing an average of 93 points per game through their first two games against the offensive-minded Nuggets and Timberwolves.

The problem for the Pistons has been their offense, which is only averaging 85 points per game on a woeful 39.4% shooting.  A big contributing factor to that is the fact that they have been without their best scoring big man in Greg Monroe for the first two games as he has served a two-game suspension.  Monroe returns tonight and will give the Pistons a big lift on the offensive end.

Detroit will not only be better offensively because of Monroe's return, but also because it will be up against a Nets team that allowed 121 points and 55.7% shooting in a 16-point loss to the Celtics in their opener.  This Brooklyn team is a mess right now with the loss of Paul Pierce in the offseason and the injury to center Brook Lopez, who will miss this game with a foot injury.

The Pistons have a massive frontcourt featuring Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith.  Without Lopez, this trio should dominate not only on the offensive end, but on the glass on both ends of the floor.  The Nets are relying on Kevin Garnett, Mason Plumlee, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic in their frontcourt.  This is a complete mismatch in Detroit's favor.

Detroit won three out of four meetings with Brooklyn last year, including 111-95 and 103-99 victories at home.  The Pistons also won on the road 109-97 on November 24th.  The Pistons scored 103-plus points in all four meetings with the Nets last season, and the Nets are worse off this year than they were last year, while the Pistons are improved.  The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Take the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento Kings +6

After an awful performance against the Golden State Warriors in their opener, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Sacramento Kings tonight.  That's why they are showing such great value as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Look for the Kings to come out very determined after getting embarrassed by the Warriors.  They shot just 30.8% from the field and committed a ridiculous 26 turnovers.  Things couldn't have gone worse in their 18-point loss.  Obviously, they aren't going to play that poorly again tonight.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants everything to do with the Blazers after their 106-89 home win over an Oklahoma City team that was playing without Kevin Durant.  That game didn't become a blowout until the 4th quarter as the Thunder actually had a 77-75 lead until the final period, where the Blazers outscored them 31-12.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Kings and Blazers.  Indeed, the home team is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Sacramento has one of the most underrated home-court advantages year in and year out, and any time you can get the Kings as this big of a home dog you should usually take advantage, and we will tonight.

Plays against favorites (PORTLAND) - off a home win against a division rival, on Friday nights are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sacramento is 44-25 ATS in its last 69 home games after scoring 85 points or less.  The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.  Sacramento is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +9.5

The Philadelphia 76ers lost to Indiana on the road by a final of 91-103 in the opener, failing to cover the 7.5-point spread.  They held a 51-48 lead at halftime, but did not play nearly as well after intermission.  I believe they are showing value here in their second game of the season after that performance as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

I also believe the betting public is overreacting on the Bucks' solid performance at Charlotte where they lost 106-108 (OT) despite being an 8-point underdog.  They also blew a lead in that game and allowed the Bobcats to come back and win.  The Bucks simply have no business being this heavily favored against anyone, and there's value in the 76ers as a result.

This has been a very closely-contested series over the last couple seasons, which is another reason why I believe this 9.5-point spread is too much.  Indeed, eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer, and seven of those have been decided by 9 points or less.

The 76ers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  The 76ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. 

Simply put, Philadelphia is undervalued after failing to cover against Indiana, while Milwaukee is overvalued after covering against an overrated Charlotte squad.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7

I look for the Detroit Pistons to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year.  I really like the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, who has been one of the most successful head coaches this league has seen.  He owns a .641 winning percentage in eight season with Miami and Orlando.

Van Gundy has plenty of talent to work with this year with Andre Drummond, Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings leading the way.  Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a real scorer and should blossom in his second season.  I also like the additions of D.J. Augustin and Caron Butler as role players who will fit in nicely. 

The Pistons thrived in the preseason, going 5-2, and I look for them to carry over that success to the regular season opener.  The Nuggets, meanwhile, went just 2-6 in the preseason and are out of whack.  They have several players returning from injury, and Brian Shaw just has no chemistry with this team coming into the year.

Three key players for the Nuggets (Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson) all underwent surgery to repair torn ACLs.  Gallinari never saw the floor last year, while JaVale McGee played in just five games.  I believe it's going to take a while for these guys to gel and actually feel comfortable about returning from such serious injuries on the court.

Van Gundy is 357-296 ATS in all games as a head coach.  Van Gundy is 81-55 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 in all games he has coached.  The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Knicks ESPN National TV KNOCKOUT on Chicago -4

The Chicago Bulls are going to be the most improved team in the league this year.  It starts with Game 1 tonight against the New York Knicks.  I fully expect the Bulls to go into Madison Square Garden and come away with a blowout victory.

Derrick Rose returns after playing in just 49 of 230 games over the past three seasons.  The Bulls also added Pau Gasol, European start Nikola Mirotic and college super scorer Doug McDermott to their roster this offseason.  They will now be one of the best offensive teams in the league while once again battling to be the top defense in the NBA as well.

The Knicks are in full-on rebuilding mode after missing the playoffs last year with a 37-45 record.  The Phil Jackson hire will help them long-term, but in the intermediate this simply is not a very good team even with Carmelo Anthony.  They lost Tyson Chandler, who was the only player on this team aside from Iman Shumpert who is a plus-defender.

New York is really going to struggle defensively this year without Chandler, but the bigger concern early is going to be the offense.  Jackson has hired Derek Fisher to run his patented Triangle Offense.  This system takes some time to get used to, and the Knicks will be all out of sorts in the opener, just as they were in the preseason when they went 3-4.

Chicago has gone 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York.  The Knicks are 3-13 ATS in home games in the first half of the season dating back to last year.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Southeast Division ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -4

The Miami Heat will be out to prove that they do not need Lebron James to compete for an Eastern Conference Title.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season, starting with their opener against the Washington Wizards Wednesday.

The Heat signed Chris Bosh to a max deal to be their go-to guy this season.  Go back and check his stats in Toronto to find out what he is capable of as the lead guy, because he is still in his prime and will put up huge numbers this year. 

Dwyane Wade wants to play in all 82 games to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, and that he can be a lead guy as well.  I also love the addition of Luol Deng, who is a real team player who can contribute a lot on both end of the floor.

Washington was one of the biggest surprise teams in the league last year as it came out of nowhere and won a playoff series for the first time since 2004-05.   Now, I believe the Wizards are way overvalued heading into 2014-15 because of it, especially due to key losses and injuries.

Trevor Ariza is one of the most underrated players in the league.  He defends the opposing team's best player, and he also knocked down a ton of 3's for the Wizards last season.  Ariza is now a key cog in Houston, replacing the departed Chandler Parsons in the Rockets' starting lineup.

Washington is expected to be without starting shooting guard Bradley Beal, starting forward Nene, and top reserve Martell Webster for the opener.  In Nene, Beal and Ariza, the Wizards will be down three starters from last year.  They simply aren't going to live up to the hype in the opener due to all of these injuries and personnel losses.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Washington and Miami.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Miami has won each of its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -4.5

The Toronto Raptors were one of the most underrated teams in the league last year.  They won a franchise-record 48 games and the Atlantic Division title.  They should be just as good if not better in 2014-15, and I believe they are undervalued here as only a 4.5-point favorite over the Atlanta Hawks.

Kyle Lowry signed a new $48 million deal this offseason after averaging 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds last year.  DeMar DeRozan was an All-Start.  Toronto kept most of its roster in tact, but it also added Lou Williams and James Johnson to the team.  They'll serve as great role players as Williams is instant offense off the bench, while Johnson can do a little bit of everything.

Atlanta did make its seventh straight postseason appearance last year, which is the longest active streak in the Eastern Conference.    However, they barely snuck in, and I don't believe they did enough this offseason to improve their team.  All they did was get John Salmons and Thobo Sefolosha, who are two players far past their primes who won't contribute much.

The Raptors looked as good as anyone in the preseason as they put together a league-best 6-1 record.  I look for them to carry over that success in the regular season.  I truly believe that they are the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference this year and fully capable of giving any team a run for their money.

The home team went a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings between the Hawks and Raptors last season with the home team winning by 5 or more points in all four games.  I look for Toronto to make it five straight wins and covers for the home team in this series.  Roll with the Raptors Wednesday.

20* Mavericks/Spurs NBA Season Opener on Dallas +4

I look for the Dallas Mavericks to spoil the ring ceremony of the San Antonio Spurs tonight and to win this opener outright.  I'll be taking the points for some added insurance.

Dallas wants revenge after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the opening round of the playoffs last year.  They played the Spurs tougher than anyone in the playoffs, and I believe they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA heading into 2014-15.

I absolutely love what Dallas did in the offseason.  It brought back Tyson Chandler, who was the defensive force who helped them win the NBA Title a few years back.  It also signed Chandler Parsons from the Rockets, who is one of the most efficient players in the NBA who can do a little bit of everything.  Jameers Nelson, Devin Harris & Raymond Felton will all help combine to replace Jose Calderon at the point.

I don't put a ton of stock into the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Spurs went 2-5 in the preseason.  They even lost overseas to Alba Berlin in their preseason opener.  I look for them to start the regular season slow as well as they just won't have that same fire they did last year after losing the NBA Finals the year before.

One big development is that Kawhi Leonard, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP, won't be suiting up tonight.  He averaged 23.7 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 68.6 percent in the final three games against the Heat.  He is dealing with an eye infection that has kept him out for over two weeks.  Leonard is worth the most wins above replacement of all the Spurs this season.

Leonard isn't the only Spur who is banged up right now.  They will also be without starting center Tiago Splitter and key bench player Patty Mills.  Splitter has a calf injury and will be out for this game and possibly a few more, while Mills isn't expected to return until February due to a torn rotator cuff.

Dallas is 16-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  Dallas is a sensational 50-20 ATS in its last 70 road games overall.  Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

While the Miami Heat have been atrocious the past two games, I believe this line is inflated because of it.  With their season at stake, I look for the Heat to fight until the end tonight and to stay within 5.5 points of the Spurs, possibly pulling off the upset.

This is a veteran Heat team that is prepared better than any other team in the league for this win-or-go-home situation.  Look for Lebron James and company to put together a game plan that will give them an excellent chance to win this Game 5 and send the series back to Miami.

Miami is 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 24-9 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Sunday.

20* Spurs/Heat Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +5.5

I certainly understand the fact that the Heat have not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs in any of the past two years.  However, they haven't played a team as good as this 2013-14 San Antonio squad.  The Spurs are even better than they were a year ago, and they have made some nice adjustments from the way they played the Heat in the Finals last year.

Last year, the Spurs would go under screens and dare Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot the outside shot.  Now, they are mixing it up, switching screens about half the time to give those two stars a different look, and it's working.  Their transition defense has also been much better than it was a year ago.

San Antonio comes into this game knowing that they can essentially win the series with a victory tonight, and it will not be lacking any motivation because of it.  This team is gleaming with confidence after a marvelous shooting display in Game 3, and while I do not expect that kind of shooting performance again, I believe they will be good enough to stay within 5.5 points, likely pulling off the upset.

Miami is 4-12 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.  San Antonio is 41-22 ATS after scoring 110 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 53-25-1 ATS in its last 79 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 4 Thursday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on San Antonio Spurs +4.5

The San Antonio Spurs represent my strongest play of the entire NBA Finals tonight as a 4.5-point road underdog in Game 3 against the Miami Heat.  I look for them to not only cover, but to win this game outright to re-gain home-court advantage in the series.

The Spurs have been the best road team in the league this season, going 33-16 away from home while outscoring opponents by an average of 5.2 points per game.  This veteran bunch will not be intimidated one bit by going into Miami to try and come away with a victory in Game 3.

The Heat have been unbelievable when coming off a loss this season, but not so hot when coming off a win.  They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games following a S.U. win.  Miami is also 8-18 ATS in its last 26 home games off a road win, and 14-26 ATS in its last 40 home games after playing its last game on the road.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a home loss.  The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots.  San Antonio is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games playing on one days' rest.  The Spurs are 52-25-1 ATS in their last 78 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* Heat/Spurs Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs fought hard to get back to this position.  They won the league's best record during the regular season to get home-court advantage throughout, then made their way through the Western Conference, which is arguably as strong as it's ever been.

Miami kind of went through the motions during the regular season, allowing the Pacers to take the No. 1 seed without even earning it.  The Heat have then faced a very weak Eastern Conference to get here.  They won't be ready for the challenge that's coming in Game 1 like the Spurs will be.

The Spurs are 41-10 at home this season.  They have won eight straight playoff home games all by 6 points or more.  In fact, their last seven playoff home games have resulted in victories by 17-plus points each.  They have won 15 of their last 19 home meetings with the Heat.

 San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Spurs are 51-24-1 ATS in their last 76 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Spurs in Game 1 Thursday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +4

The San Antonio Spurs remember when they went up 2-0 only to lose the next four games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals in 2012.  They have been playing with extra motivation this series because of it, and while the home team has won every game thus far, I look for that to change in Game 6 tonight.

The Spurs know what they need to do to beat the Thunder after running their game plan to perfection in a blowout victory in Game 5.  They have been stagnant on offense in their two road games, but they got back to moving the ball in Game 5.  Look for them to really put an emphasis on ball movement in Game 6, because when they move it like they are supposed to, they are virtually unbeatable.

Plays against home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Spurs are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.  San Antonio is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season.  The Spurs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  Take the Spurs Saturday.

15* Pacers/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Pacers have won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons.  After losing the first two games in Miami this series, I look for the Pacers to give the Heat a run for their money in Game 6 to try and extend this series and send it back to Indiana for a Game 7.

This has been a much closer series than most realize.  The Pacers won Game 1, were tied with just over a minute remaining in Game 2, and blew a 15-point lead in Miami in Game 3.  I like the fight this team showed in Game 5, and I believe it will carry over into Game 6 with their season at stake. 

After all, the Pacers have played their best this postseason when their back has been against the wall.  They won Game 6 in Atlanta when trailing 3-2, and finished the Hawks off in Game 7.  After falling behind 0-1 to Washington, they won three straight and eventually won in six games.  They are still a solid 5-3 on the road in these playoffs.

Miami is 13-26 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots this season.  Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Friday.

15* Thunder/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on San Antonio -5

The San Antonio Spurs head back home for Game 5 of this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is a very resilient Spurs bunch that knows the importance of this game and does not want a repeat of two years ago when they blew a 2-0 lead to the Thunder and lost 2-4.

The Spurs are 40-10 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points per game.  The home team has won all four meetings in this series thus far.  The Spurs won their first two home games by a combined 52 points.

I look for Greg Popovich to make the necessary adjustments to put his team in a much better position to win tonight.  The ball will move quickly on offense, and also look for Manu Ginobli to play more with the starters because he can break down a defense.

The Spurs are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 home playoff games.  San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games this postseason.  The Spurs are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take the Spurs in Game 5 Thursday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1.5

The Indiana Pacers will have some fight left in them as they head back home for Game 5.  This easily could be a 2-2 series right now, and knowing that they won in Miami in the playoffs each of the last two seasons, they have to have some hope that they can come back and win the series.

"I think anytime you lose three in a row in the playoffs, it shakes your confidence some," coach Frank Vogel said. "But we can't worry about that. All we've got to worry about is coming back and winning Game 5 and giving us an opportunity to come down here and win one game. We've won one game in each playoff series that we've played here the last two years. We should have confidence that we can do that."

The Pacers won Game 1 and were tied with Miami in the closing minutes in Game 2, but faltered down the stretch.  They also blew a 15-point lead at Miami in Game 3, so it's clear that they have proven they can play with this team.  They just need a few more things to go their way tonight, and I believe they will.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 (65.1%) ATS since 1996.  Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams get together as the home team has gone 11-1 (92%) straight up in the last 12 meetings.  Take the Pacers in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder Game 4 No-Brainer on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs played their worst game of the playoffs in Game 3, yet they still only lost by single-digits.  They relaxed a little after winning the first two games by a combined 56 points, and they ended up shooting just 39.6% from the floor in that 97-106 Game 3 loss.

Everyone wants to be quick to credit the return of Serge Ibaka as the reason the Thunder won, but I believe it was more to do with self-inflicted wounds than anything.  Tony Parker has his worst game of the series, and when he doesn't have it going, the team tends to struggle offensively.

I look for the Spurs to come back highly motivated tonight realizing that they need to take back control of this series after what happened in the 2012 conference finals.  They blew a 2-0 lead and lost the next four games to the Thunder that year, and they will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight because of it.

San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Roll with the Spurs in Game 4 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6.5

It's now or never for the Indiana Pacers, who cannot afford to lose this Game 4 against the Miami Heat if they want to win this series.  I look for them to lay it all on the line to get the victory, and for it to be enough to at least stay within this 6.5-point spread.

Sure, Indiana blew a golden opportunity in Game 3 after leading most of the way in that contest.  Miami simply got hot in the 4th quarter, and Ray Allen could not miss.  The Heat have shot at least 50% in every game thus far, so they have clearly had a lot right go for them.

That is saying something considering the Pacers are the top defensive team in the league this season.  Indeed, they rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and I fully expect their best effort on that end of the floor in this one.

The Pacers are 5-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet Indiana in Game 4 Monday.

25* Eastern Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +7

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play in the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 3 of this series.  They are catching too many points against the Miami Heat in this one, and I'll take advantage by taking all the points I can get.

Paul George is expected to play Saturday, which is a huge bonus for the Pacers because he is by far the most important player on the team.  He is averaging 21.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists in the playoffs, and a team-high 41.3 minutes per game to boot.

As I've stated before, the Pacers match up really well with the Heat because George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as any duo in the league.  They ranks 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  The Heat rank 11th in that same category at 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

Indiana has won a game in Miami in each of the last two postseasons in 2012 and 2013.  It has played its best basketball away from home in the postseason, going 5-1 through the first two rounds in road games.  It was an underdog in four of those contests, all of which it won outright.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Miami is 7-18 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Indiana is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on three or more days of rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* Heat/Pacers Game 2 No-Doubt Rout on Indiana +3

I'm taking the Indiana Pacers for many of the same reasons I backed them in Game 1.  But most importantly, I'm backing them because they know how important retaining home-court advantage is, and that's why they will not have a letdown after throttling the Heat 107-96 in Game 1.

Sure, I realize the fact that Miami has not lost back-to-back games in the playoffs over the past two seasons, but you also have to realize that nobody other than perhaps San Antonio has played the Heat as tough as the Pacers in the postseason.  They aren't afraid of Miami because they know they can beat them.

Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.  Indiana has gone 39-10 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game.  Miami is just 25-21 on the road this year.

Indiana is the best defensive team in the league.  It ranked 1st in defensive efficiency during the regular season, yielding just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in the same category, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.  Paul George and Lance Stephenson can guard Lebron James and Dwyane Wade better than any tandem in the league.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-6 (86%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +3

The Indiana Pacers worked hard during the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They did so looking ahead to a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch with the Miami Heat.  Starting with Game 1, I look for them to put that home court to use.

Home-court advantage has been huge when these teams have gotten together recently.  Indeed, the home team won all four meetings during the regular season.  Dating back to the playoffs last year, the home team has now won eight straight meetings in this series.

Indiana has gone 38-10 at home this season.  It is outscoring opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game at home.  Miami is a mediocre 25-20 on the road this year, clearly proving to be beatable away from home.

The Pacers were the best team in the league defensively this season.  They ranked first in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions.  To compare, Miami ranked 11th in defensive efficiency, giving up 102.9 points per 100 possessions.

When you can play defense, you give yourself a chance to win in the playoffs.  No team is better suited to stop Lebron James and Dwyane Wade than the Pacers.  Paul George can contain James, while Lance Stephenson does an excellent job on Wade.

The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days' rest.  I look for Indiana to protect its home court in Game 1 as the home team wins a 9th straight meeting between these teams.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Sunday.

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +8

It took three games to figure it out, but the Portland Trail Blazers now have an answer for Tony Parker.  After letting him go wild in the first three games of this series, they held him to just 14 points, one assist and three turnovers in a 103-92 Game 4 victory.

Parker had been averaging 26 points and more than eight assists in the first three games of the series.  The difference was Nicolas Batum, who was charged with guarding Parker the entire game.  The fellow Frenchman's length gave Parker fits and allow the Blazers to avoid the sweep.

I believe Portland legitimately has a chance to win this Game 5 outright tonight now that it has found the right defense for Parker.  The Spurs are overvalued due to four straight double-digit victories prior to that Game 4 loss.  They have no business being an 8-point favorite here against a Blazers team fighting for their playoff lives.

The Blazers are 11-1 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in home games off two straight games where they had 10 or less offensive rebounds this season.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 5 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have all of the momentum heading into Game 5.  They just erased a 16-point deficit with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 by a final of 101-99.  After looking dead to the water in this series, they now have new life and are essentially free rolling.

All of the pressure is back on Oklahoma City, which got 67 combined points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and Game 4.  The Thunder also held the Clippers to 41.9% shooting in that contest, and they STILL could not win.  This team has to be baffled right now and feeling the pressure.

The Clippers clearly have the best coach in this series, and it's not even close.  I like what he did in putting the smaller Chris Paul on Durant, double-teaming him and forcing him to shoot outside jump shots.  I look for them to use that strategy again in Game 5, and Durant will either have to force shots or pass the ball.  Either way, that works in Los Angeles' favor.  Oklahoma City doesn't have the role players that can beat the Clippers.

Doc Rivers is 27-8 ATS in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams that make 80% or more of their shots in all games he has coached.  Los Angeles is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings in Oklahoma City.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3

The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3.  They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.

I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation.  This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.

Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center.  Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home.  So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.

The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.

Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118.  They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52.  Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team. 

So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Pacers/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5

Oddsmakers have set the line in this game like this is an evenly-matched series.  Indiana was only a 4 to 4.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 at home. Now they're a 4.5-point dog on the road in Game 3.  I believe the Pacers are the better team in this series, and I'll back them in Game 3 because of it.

Roy Hibbert came alive with 28 points and nine rebounds in a Game 2 victory.  Paul George had taken him out on a fishing boat the day prior, and it really showed that he and the team had his back.  Now, with Hibbert back on board, this is going to be a scary team the rest of the way.

Indiana has played its best when it has needed to on the road thus far in the playoffs.  In fact, it took two out of three road games from Atlanta last series, which was a place that the Pacers simply could not win for years.  I believe it gets Game 3 on the road tonight to regain home-court advantage.

The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Randy Wittman is 28-52 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less in all games he has coached.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight in Game 2 of their series with the Washington Wizards. After losing Game 1, I fully expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 2.

I'm going to chalk the 96-102 Game 1 loss up to a hangover from the 7-game series against Atlanta, and also tremendous 3-point shooting by Washington.  Indeed, the Wizards went 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3-point range, and Trevor Ariza was 6-of-6.  That's not going to happen again.

Indiana is 37-9 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game.  This is one of the toughest places to play in the league, hands down.  Players went up to Roy Hibbert after Game 1 and asked for more from him, and I look for him to respond in Game 2.

Washington is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Indiana is 45-31 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 41-26 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Wizards 1-12 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* Nets/Heat Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets continue to get no respect when facing Miami despite what they did during the regular season.  Everyone wants to just overlook the fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular year, chalking it up to luck.  I'm not buying it.

Brooklyn set out this offseason to build a contender that could compete with Miami.  I believe it has done that while also proving that with the 4-0 record during the regular season.  I look for Miami to struggle once again in this opener of a seven-game series.

Dwyane Wade may have awoken a sleeping giant with the comments he made leading up to this series.  While Paul Pierce was quick to compliment Lebron James as one of the best players in the game, Wade took a different approach.  On Pierce and KG, Wade said "we thought we buried them in Boston".  That was obviously a shot at their age, and one these two and the team will not take lightly.

Jason Kidd's record against the Heat in recent years is telling.  Going back to the 2007-08 season, his teams have won 16 of the last 21 games he played in against Miami, and now he's 4-0 as a coach against the Heat.  The guy was a coach on the floor as a player, and he clearly knows ways to beat this team.

Brooklyn is 17-3 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two years.  Miami is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Nets Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have an excellent chance to steal Game 1 of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll just take the points for some insurance tonight folks.

We saw in the first round several road teams steal Game 1.  It's when the home team is most vulnerable, especially since both teams had just one day to prepare for this after playing in Game 7's on Saturday.

The only game the Clippers played all that poorly in against the Warriors in the opening round was Game 4, which was played on the same day of the Donald Sterling news, so none of the players showed up for it.  Their other two losses came by a combined five points.  I just think that situation has brought this team closer together, and they are going to be a dangerous team throughout the rest of the playoffs because of it.

I believe the Clippers match up very well with the Thunder.  Chris Paul is one of the best defenders in the league and will give Russell Westbrook fits.  Matt Barnes is one of the most underrated wing defenders in the league, and his length will help contain Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games.  The Clippers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Los Angeles is 15-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Brooklyn Nets staved off elimination in Game 6 with an emphatic 97-83 victory over the Toronto Raptors.  Now, I look for them to capitalize and win this series with a Game 7 victory, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Toronto has been one of the best stories in the league this year.  However, I just don't believe this inexperienced team has what it takes to win a winner-take-all Game 7.  Brooklyn, meanwhile, has several veterans that have been through these types of games.

That veteran presence showed up in Game 6 as they came together defensively and limited the Raptors to just 38.5% shooting.  Deron Williams led the way with 23 points, while fellow playoff vets Joe Johnson (17), Kevin Garnett (13) and Paul Pierce (12) all finished in double figures as well.

Brooklyn is 16-3 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  These four trends combine for a 35-4 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

I had Los Angeles picked to win this series all along.  However, I do not believe they should be a 7-point favorite over Golden State in Game 7 of this series Saturday night.  I'll take the points as a result.

Golden State is a very profitable 52-34 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  Amazingly, the Warriors are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in the first round of the playoffs.  Time and time again they are undervalued, and 2014 has been no exception.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

I look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 6 tonight on the road to force a Game 7.  They already showed that they could go on the road and win a must-win game when they were trailing 2-1 in Game 4, eventually winning in overtime to even the series at 2-2.

The Thunder have had poor luck in this series in the close games.  Each of the last four games have gone to overtime, and they have managed to lose three of the four.  Unlike the rest of this series, I look for Game 6 to be a blowout in the Thunder's favor given what's at stake with their season on the line.

Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis is 7-23 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -1

The Indiana Pacers are the better team in this series.  I still believe they are going to prevail in seven games, but it starts with a Game 6 victory in Atlanta.  I look for head coach Frank Vogel to make the proper adjustments to match Atlanta's small line-up that has been killing them.

Indiana went small in the second half of Game 5 and cut a 30-point deficit down to single-digits before eventually losing 97-107.  Of course, everything went right for the Hawks in that game as they shot 50% from the field and 55.6% (15-of-27) from 3-point range.  That won't happen again.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 2 days rest.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Thursday.

15* Mavericks/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 5 in what has been one of the most exciting series of the playoffs.  Three of the four games have been decided by 5 points or less and a combined 10 points.

The lone exception was in Game 2 when the Mavericks won 113-92 in an absolute blowout in San Antonio.  Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series with its two losses coming by 5 points in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 4.  This team is certainly not backing down from the defending Western Conference champions.

Dallas is 14-2 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The Mavericks are 92-56 ATS in their last 148 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 41-14 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss.  Dallas is 49-19 ATS in its last 68 road games.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* Bulls/Wizards Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +1.5

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Pacers/Hawks Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

It's pretty much do or die for the Indiana Pacers in Game 4.  I fully expect them to rise to the occasion and to re-gain home-court advantage with a victory in Atlanta.  They are the better team, and with their season on the line, I look for them to come together in this one.

The Hawks had huge edges in 3-pointers and free throw shooting in Game 3 that allowed them to win.  They shot 37 free throws compared to 21 for Indiana, clearly getting the majority of the calls throughout the game, which won't happen again.  They also connected on 12 3-pointers for the game. 

Yet, Indiana had a chance to win late.  The Pacers were within a couple points in the 4th quarter despite shooting 37.6% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range.  Basically, the Pacers couldn't have played a worse game, while the Hawks couldn't have played a whole lot better, or gotten any more breaks to go their way.  The chances of these things happening two games in a row are slim.

Indiana is 30-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off one or consecutive losses.  Atlanta is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win.  Roll with the Pacers in Game 4 Saturday.

15* Bulls/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

This is the exact type of game the Chicago Bulls live for.  Everyone has counted them out after losing the first two games of this series at home, and everything except the guys inside that locker room believe this series is over.  This team plays its best when it is counted out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Tom Thibodeau deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has been able to do with this team.  The players take after their head coach, who has absolutely no quit in him.  He'll rally the troops and you'll see the Bulls put forth one of their best efforts of the season in Game 3.

Chicago actually played some of its best basketball on the road this season posting a 21-20 record away from home.  That included a 96-78 road victory in its last trip to Washington on April 5th.  Washington actually owns a worse home record (22-19) than a road record (24-19) on the year.

The Bulls have a lot of playoff experience on this team.  They know a series isn't over until its over.  Washington, meanwhile, is loaded with inexperience in terms of the playoffs.  While that actually worked in the Wizards' favor in the first two games of this series as they didn't know any better, I believe it will work against them here.  They will be content with their 2-0 lead and not be able to match the effort of the desperate Bulls in Game 3.

Thibodeau is 39-22 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 32-16 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago.  Randy Whitman is 27-51 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Wizards are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Chicago is 91-57 ATS in its last 148 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* Pacers/Hawks NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

The Indiana Pacers get the nod Thursday as a small road favorite against the Atlanta Hawks.  They showed me something in Game 2 that I believe will carry over into Game 3.  They got back to playing with a passion in the second half, turning a 48-52 deficit at the break into a a 16-point blowout thanks to a 31-13 third quarter.

Indiana got back to playing defense and playing for one another, which is what got them to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers held the Hawks to just 33 points after intermission.  I really believe we'll look back to that second half as a turning point for them in the playoffs, and it will carry over into Game 3 tonight.

The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are out-classed here.  They only made the playoffs because the Eastern Conference was down this year as their 38-44 record was good enough to get in.  If Indiana shows up to play, it should beat this team 90% of the time.  There's no question it shows up in Game 3 to try and regain home-court advantage.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996.  The favorite is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

20* Wizards/Bulls TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -5

After blowing a 13-point lead and losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the resilient Chicago Bulls to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.  This has been a resilient bunch all season with the losses of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.  They aren't about to pack it in now and give up on this series after losing one game.

Washington is a young team that probably doesn't quite understand needing to go for a team's throat when it is down.  John Wall, Bradley Bill and company won't come back with that killer mentality.  They are satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Chicago, and I look for that to show tonight.  The Bulls will be winning all of the effort plays in this one, which will help them win and cover this 5-point spread.

The Wizards are 10-25 ATS in thier last 35 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Washington is 102-149 ATS off two or more consecutive wins since 1996.  Chicago is 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last three years.  The Bulls are 25-15 ATS revenging a loss this season.  Chicago is 12-1 (92%) ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Bulls in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana -7

The Indiana Pacers have come too far to let a Game 1 loss affect them.  They have gotten the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, which was their goal coming into the year.  They will use it to their advantage and bounce back with a blowout home victory over Atlanta in Game 2.

Not a whole lot went right for the Pacers in Game 1 as they shot just 42.0% from the field and 69.6% from the free throw line.  A lot went right for Atlanta as it made 11 three-pointers and shot 24-of-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line.  It was the more aggressive team, getting to the line six more times than the Pacers (16-23), but I look for them to have a role reversal in that department.  Indiana will be the more aggressive team in this one.

I have a feeling we may look back to this Game 1 loss as the wake up call the Pacers needed to go on a big run to the Eastern Conference Finals.  The fact of the matter is that this team is still one of the best in the league, while the Hawks only made the playoffs because the East was so down this year.  They got in with a 38-44 record, so they really aren't that good.

Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The favorites is 25-10-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings in this series.  Take the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington +4.5

The Wizards finally turned the corner this season. They ended a five-year playoff drought and turned all their promise into production. The front office has eyed the playoffs all season, making big moves to turn this team into a possible contender. The Wizards traded for Marcin Gortat in the preseason to make up for the loss of Emeka Okafor. They traded for Andre Miller, and signed veterans like Al Harrington and Drew Gooden.

However, it has been the emergence of a couple of young superstars that have made the difference. The 23-year-old John Wall (19.3 ppg, 8.8 apg) has turned into a real leader this season while playing in all 82 games. The 20-year-old Beal (17.1 ppg, 40.2% 3-pointers) can fill it up with the best of them. Gortat (13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Nene (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have played well inside.

The most overlooked player on the entire team is Trevor Ariza (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 aspg, 40.7% 3-pointers), who does a little bit of everything. He will defend the best player on the other team night in and night out, and he has really improved his outside shooting to make him an all-around player. He helped the Wizards win four straight games to close out the season, which had them avoiding Miami in the first round as a potential No. 7 seed.

The Wizards shared the ball very well this season, ranking 7th in the league in assists at 17.7 per game. Their unselfishness helped them finish a respectable 16th in offensive efficiency, averaging 103.3 points per 100 possessions. This is where they have a huge advantage over the sometimes stagnant Bulls, who rank a woeful 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago can go for long stretches without scoring.

This has actually been a favorable match-up for Washington in recent years believe it or not. It not only won two of three meetings this season, but dating back to last year, it has won four of the past six meetings. The Wizards have done so behind a dominant effort defensively. They have held to the Bulls to an average of 88.5 points per game in their last six meetings.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season.  The Wizards are 27-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Bobcats/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Charlotte +10

The Bobcats were the surprise of the season this year. They made the playoffs while finishing with a winning record for just the second time in franchise history. Steve Clifford deserves Coach of the Year consideration for the job that he has done this season. He took a team that went 21-61 in 2013-13 to a 43-39 club this season, improving them by a whopping 22 victories.

Clifford doesn’t deserve all the credit. Al Jefferson probably should get the most of it with the MVP-caliber season he had. He proved to be an excellent offseason acquisition and was really the only player of any significance that this team added. Jefferson put up 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game as he was a double-double waiting to happen.

Kemba Walker (17.7 ppg, 6.1 apg) also took his game to the next level this season. Gerald Henderson (14.0 ppg) can fill it up, Josh McRoberts (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) can do it all, and Gary Neal (11.2 ppg) was a nice pick up before the trade deadline. This is a team that heads into the playoffs with a lot of confidence after going 7-1 over their final eight games of the season as they nearly moved all the way up to the No. 5 seed in the East.

The Bobcats have been a completely different team since they gave up 61 points to James in that loss. Indeed, they have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to clinch a playoff spot. They went 7-1 over the final eight games of the season. Miami, meanwhile, lost five of its last six games heading into the postseason.

The one weakness for the Heat is their post play, which can be suspect at times, especially defensively. That’s why they signed Greg Oden, but he’s not going to play that big of a role for them. Jefferson is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds over his last 10 games. He should have his way with the Heat in this series, which gives the Bobcats a fighting chance.

Charlotte is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games as a favorite.  The Bobcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They took Miami to overtime and lost by a single point to them in another game this year, so they are clearly closing the gap in this head-to-head series.  Bet the Bobcats Sunday.

20* Hawks/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now due to their poor finish to the regular season.  They should be an even bigger favorite over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1.  I'll take advantage and back the Pacers in what I expect to be a double-digit victory by game's end.

Indiana is the best team in the East in my opinion, and while many don't believe it deserves the No. 1 seed because of its finish, the fact of the matter is that it finished with the best record.  This team easily got bored in the second half of the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and will have them coming together as a team.

The only reason the Hawks made the playoffs is because the Eastern Conference is so terrible as a whole.  Its 38-44 record was good enough to hold off the lowly New York Knicks for the final spot.  This is a team that went 1-14 over a 15-game stretch this season.  They stand little chance of competing in this series considering their best player, Al Horford, was lost for the season.

The one constant with the Pacers is that they defend, and defense wins in the playoffs. They led the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Atlanta ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, giving up 104.1 points per 100 possessions.

These Indiana players will be chomping at the bit to hit the court after resting down the stretch.  They should have one of their best efforts of the season in Game 1 because of it, while also playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the negative publicity they have received through the media for their struggles over the past month-plus.

The Hawks are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The favorite it 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers Game 1 Line Mistake on Los Angeles -7

Despite playing without Chris Paul for 20 games this season due to injury, the Clippers managed to win 57 games and finish as the No. 3 seed in the stacked Western Conference.  When he returned to health, they went 20-5 over their final 20 games of the season.  The fifth loss doesn't count because Paul didn't play in the season finale.

To put it bluntly, the Clippers are my favorite value bet to win the NBA Championship.  The trio of Paul, Blake Griffin and head coach Doc Rivers makes them an enticing bet not only in Game 1, but to win it all.  Griffin really stepped up his game in Paul's absence this year, averaging 24.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.

What makes the Clippers so tough to deal with is that they rank 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.4 points per 100 possessions.  That is impressive in Rivers' first year on the job, especially when you consider the fact that Paul missed 20 games and J.J. Redick (15.2 ppg) missed 47.  Having the best sixth man in the league in Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg) coming off the bench doesn't hurt, either.

Los Angeles will have a huge advantage in the paint in Game 1 due to the absence of Andrew Bogut for the Warriors.  Bogut is out indefinitely with fractured ribs.  To explain his importance, consider that the Warriors allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and 100.5 with him off during the regular season.  Golden State simply isn't the same team without him in the lineup because of his defense.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings.  Los Angeles is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Golden State, winning by 13, 11 and 26 points.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout in Game 1 this afternoon.  Take the Clippers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8

The Golden State Warriors get the call Wednesday as a massive 8-point underdog to the Denver Nuggets.  Sure, the fact that they are locked into the No. 6 seed is concerning because they are likely to rest their starters, but this team is deep enough to stay within eight of Denver.

The Nuggets, meanwhile, lack depth right now due to injury.  They are expected to be without Ty Lawson, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee.  Now, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after falling 105-117 to the Clippers last night. They are going to have a hard time getting up for this game knowing that they will be facing the Warriors without Curry, Thompson and Lee.

Indeed, the Warriors have a deep bench.  Harrison Barnes, Jermaine O'Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marreese Speights, Draymond Green and Steve Blake have all played significant minutes for them this season.  This crew is more than capable of not only staying within 8 points of depleted Denver, but pulling off the upset as well.

Golden State is 13-2 ATS off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 16-5 ATS in April games over the last two years.  Golden State is 50-32 ATS as a road underdog over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Nuggets, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver.  Take the Warriors Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets +7

The Brooklyn Nets are still playing for something.  They can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win tonight, but a loss would have them slotted as the No. 6 seed.  That means if they were to survive the first round, they'd have to play Miami in the second round.  They want the No. 5 seed because then they'd get Indiana in the second.

The Nets were beaten badly by the New York Knicks last night, which has public perception believing that they have quit.  I'm not buying it, and by Paul Pierce's comments after the game, it's clear that this contest against Cleveland is important for them to get things figured out heading into the playoffs.

"(This) was an example of how not to take a step forward," said Paul Pierce, who had 13 points in just 20 minutes. "We were off our game offensively, defensively, all phases of the game and that's not how you want to go into the playoffs."

 Cleveland was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 116-119 loss to Milwaukee on April 11 in its third-to-last game.  It did not even show up against Boston the next night, losing 99-111 as a 9-point favorite.  It won't show up tonight, either, and it will also be playing without Luol Deng (back).

Brooklyn has won 10 of its last 13 meetings with Cleveland overall.  In fact, it has only lost by more than 5 points to the Cavaliers once in its last 14 meetings.  That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to tonight's spread of +6.5.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.