Winning Sports Picks

15* Pelicans/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are likely to be without their best player in Anthony Davis for this game.  Davis suffered a knee injury that forced him out after five minutes against the Blazers last time out, and the Pelicans went on to lose that game 93-103.

I keep wanting to fade the Pelicans because Alvin Gentry called DeMarcus Cousins their best 3-point shooter.  That just shows the lack of shooting on this team.  And you'll hear a lot about Cousins wanting revenge on his former team leading up to this game, but what about Buddy Hield for the Kings?  He'll want the same thing against the Pelicans.

The Pelicans are 1-3 this season, but all three losses came by 8 points or more.  The Kings are also 1-3, but two of their losses came by 2 and 5 points.  I just don't know what the Pelicans are going to be able to do without Davis, especially against an improved Kings defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game this season.  The Pelicans give up a ridiculous 111.5 points per game.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team has won three straight, and the home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Sacramento is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss to a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-18-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Sacramento.  Roll with the Kings Thursday.

15* Celtics/Bucks TNT Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Boston +4.5

The Boston Celtics don't have to wait long for their shot at revenge against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They lost to the Bucks 108-100 at home on October 18th just a week ago.  But that was an awful spot for the Celtics as they were coming off a 99-102 loss to the Cavs the night before on opening night, and they were still reeling emotionally from the season-ending injury to Gordon Hayward.

Now the Celtics have had some time to get off the loss of Hayward and have really shown some nice fight in two games since.  They beat the 76ers 102-92 as 3-point road dogs next time out, then crushed New York 110-89 as 7-point home favorites on Tuesday.  The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, so they've had plenty of practice time to fine-tune things moving forward.

The Bucks are 3-1 this season but are overvalued because of it.  They barely beat the Blazers 113-110 at home, and needed a huge finish to the fourth quarter to pull away from the Hornets for a 103-94 victory.  They had lost to the Cavs 97-116 at home the game before, and I can't give them much credit for their win over the Celtics given the tough spot for Boston.

Home-court advantage hasn't meant much in this series.  The road team has won three of the last four meetings straight up.  And the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The underdog is also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. 

Jason Kidd is 11-29 ATS in home games after winning two of their last three games as the coach of Milwaukee.  Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games against Central Division opponents over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games off two consecutive wins against division opponents.  Take the Celtics Thursday.

15* Wizards/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

The Los Angeles Lakers didn't take too kindly to Marcin Gortat's tweet that John Wall 'will torture' Lonzo Ball tonight.  Look for them to be playing with a little more spirit than usual tonight when these two meet in L.A. on ESPN.

"Yeah, of course we did," Ingram said when asked if he saw Gortat's tweet on Monday. "Everyone has social media, definitely saw it. The competitor in Lonzo, of course he didn't take it so well and, with his teammates behind him, we didn't take it so well."

I think the Wizards are overvalued here due to their 3-0 start to the season.  But they could easily be 0-3 as their wins over the 76ers (by 5), Pistons (by 4) and Nuggets (by 5) all came by 5 points or less.  And that fact alone shows that we are getting some serious value with the Lakers as 7-point dogs.

Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns made the coaching change and send Eric Bledsoe home and promptly won their first game of the season.  It's like clockwork when a team makes a coaching change that they are going to play well in that first game.  And I look for the Suns to continue playing well tonight.

The Suns are undervalued right now due to their slow start to the season.  They are catching a whopping 7 points at home tonight against the Utah Jazz.  You look at the lines for their previous three home games and you can see how we're getting value here.  They were 2.5-point dogs to the Blazers, 3.5-point favorites over the Lakers, and 2-point dogs to the Kings.

Conversely, the Jazz are overvalued due to their 3-1 ATS start this season.  But the Jazz are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an 84-102 loss in Los Angeles last night.  They used a lot of energy cutting the deficit to single-digits in the fourth quarter last night, but ran out of gas in the final few minutes.  They won't have a whole lot left in the tank here to put away the Suns by more than 7 points.

All three meetings between Utah and Phoenix were decided by 7 points or less last season.  The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Jazz are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.  Utah is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5

This is the perfect 'buy low sell high' situation in the NBA.  We'll sell high on the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 3-0 on the season, and buy low on the Dallas Mavericks, who are 0-4 on the season and still in search of their first victory.

The Mavericks will be highly motivated for that first win tonight.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are in a massive letdown spot off back-to-back upset victories over the Warriors and Rockets.  They won't show up tonight.

"We've got to scratch and claw our way out of this," head coach Rick Carlisle said. "There's no other way. Our disposition has to pick up. We have to be totally together. We're missing a couple guys, but we have enough to win with what we have. Everybody's got to dig deep."

The Mavericks have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Grizzlies.  Plays against favorites (MEMPHIS) - team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, after three or more consecutive wins are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

The Portland Trail Blazers get to play their first home game tonight after an impressive three-game road trip to open the season.  They won 124-76 in Phoenix, 114-96 in Indiana and lost 110-113 at Milwaukee.

They will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd here tonight as they have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  Fans are excited about this team that made a huge run in the second half last year to make the playoffs after trading for Jusuf Nurkic.

The Pelicans have opened 1-2 with a 91-103 loss in Memphis, a 120-128 home loss to Golden State and a 119-112 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This team is so limited in the shooting department as DeMarcus Cousins in their best 3-point shooter.  They are fade material because of their lack of shooting, and the big names on the roster have them consistently overvalued.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Blazers have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 home meetings with the Pelicans.  And they only have to cover 4.5 points here, which is too low.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* Nuggets/Wizards NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver -3

The Denver Nuggets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  Their roster is absolutely loaded and they have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.  And they got better in the offseason by swapping defensive liability Danilo Gallinari out for veteran Paul Millsap and his elite defending and scoring skills.

The Nuggets blew a double-digit lead and lost in Utah in their opener.  But they bounced back with a 96-79 home win over the Kings in their home opener.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here and will be ready for the Wizards.

The Wizards have been extremely shaky despite playing two home games against two sub-par Eastern Conference teams.  They only won 120-115 over the 76ers as 6.5-point favorites, and also failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites over the Pistons in a 115-111 win.  They have a good starting lineup, but their bench is one of the worst in the NBA, and now they'll be without two key pieces in Markieff Morris and Jason Smith tonight.

The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Washington is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Monday games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have played a brutal schedule in the early going and have gotten through it at 2-1.  They won in Boston, lost at home to Cleveland, and beat Portland at home.  Now they finally get a bit of a break here against the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a Hornets team I think will be good when healthy, but that's not the case right now.  They are missing two starters in Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and they are missing two of their first players off the bench in Malik Monk and Cody Zeller.

The Hornets lost 90-102 in their only road game in Detroit.  Then they had to erase a halftime deficit with a huge second half to beat the lowly Atlanta Hawks at home.  The Hawks may be the worst team in the NBA this season. This is a big step up in class for the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Charlotte is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. NBA Central division opponents.  The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

I'm taking the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back from their loss to the Cavaliers last night.  They let that game get away in the second half.  They have played a brutal schedule already, facing two of the best teams in the East.  They beat the Celtics on the road before losing to the Cavs last night.

The Portland Trail Blazers are getting way too much respect from the books after back-to-back blowout road wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Suns and Pacers.  But now they have to take a big step up in competition here and will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  The Bucks should be favored by more here.

The Bucks clearly match up well with the Blazers.  They have won four of the last five meetings, including a season sweep last year.  And they've gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Plays on favorites (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off two or more consecutive road wins are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Memphis Grizzlies +8.5

I think the Memphis Grizzlies are getting overlooked in the Western Conference this season.  This is always a gritty team that will fight for every possession.  And I think getting rid of Zach Randolph and Tony Allen was the right move to go younger and more athletic, which will allow them to play a little more up tempo when they want to.

The Grizzlies opened with a nice 103-91 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, holding them to 38% shooting to prove that their defense is still elite.  And they've now had two days off to get ready for Golden State, which is a huge advantage.

Meanwhile, Golden State will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after winning 128-120 in New Orleans last night.  So that gives these teams a common opponent already, and the Grizzlies can clearly hang with the Warriors given their results.

Last year, Memphis actually won its first two meetings with Golden State.  The Grizzlies won 110-89 as 13-point home dogs, and 128-119 as 13.5-point road dogs.  The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves lost their opener 99-107 at San Antonio.  They went cold down the stretch.  Now they head back to Minnesota for their first home game, and it will be a great environment as these fans have something to be excited about for the first time in a long time.

The Timberwolves are a legit contender in the Western Conference now.  They added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson and pair then with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns.  You would be hard-pressed to find many better starting lineups than this one.

The Utah Jazz come in overvalued after their 106-96 home win over Denver.  The Jazz erased a double-digit lead and started needed a 28-13 fourth quarter to win that game.  I'm not very high on this Jazz team with a loss of Gordon Hayward.  There just isn't much talent on this team outside of Rudy Gobert.

The Timberwolves are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Cavs/Bucks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Milwaukee +3

The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to give the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money in the East this season.  Now they want to prove that right away as they get to host the Cavs tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them as home dogs here.

The great thing about this game is that both teams have a common opponent in their opener to compare to.  The Cavs only beat the Celtics 102-99 at home, while the Bucks beat the Celtics 108-100 on the road.  Now they have a shot to get to 2-0 against the two teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

"I think we're capable of doing big things this year," Giannis Antetokounmpo said. "We've just got to stay focused, stay grounded ... and try to have the same mentality. We're the underdogs. We're not a big-market team, we're not a big team, we're young, so we've just got to play with a chip on our shoulder and hopefully this season we can be one of the best teams in the East."

In four meetings with the Cavs last season, the Bucks were only outscored by a combined 7 points.  They won their first home meeting 118-101 last year and lost the other in overtime.  Cleveland is 13-26 ATS vs. division opponents over the last two seasons.  Take the Bucks Friday.

15* Knicks/Thunder TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +12.5

The hype on the Oklahoma City Thunder right now has them overvalued coming into the season.  They traded for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, which gives them a Big 3 with Russell Westbrook.  But it's going to take some time for these guys to gel, and they now have no depth on the bench because of these trades.  Two of the first guys off the bench will be Pattrick Patterson and Raymond Felton, and both are questionable with injuries tonight.

The Knicks come into the season getting no love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, which is kind of a perfect storm here.  But they do have some nice depth now with the additions of Enes Kanter and Doug McDermott.  They also have Kyle O'Quinn and Michael Beasley coming off the bench.

Tim Hardaway Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are all underrated players in my book.  And rookie PG Frank Ntilikina has some veterans behind him in Ramon Sessions and Jarrett Jack to help him along.  Willy Hernangomez is a worker at center who averaged 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds last season in only 18.4 minutes per game.  He will get double the minutes and double the production this season.

Each of the last five meetings between the Knicks and Thunder have been decided by 11 points or less.  This 12.5-point spread is clearly inflated tonight given the perception of these teams coming into the season.  Roll with the Knicks Thursday.

15* Blazers/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +2

The Phoenix Suns enter the 2017 season undervalued as many picked them to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference.  And while last year was a growing year for their young team, they plan on having a lot more structure this season and taking major strides.

They even rested their best player Eric Bledsoe for the final 16 games last season to try and preserve his knee.  Now they enter 2017 fully healthy and ready to make some progress.  I love the backcourt of Bledsoe, Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.  Marquese Chriss and TJ Warren continue to improve, and rookie Josh Jackson will bring some much-needed defense to this lineup.  Tyson Chandler remains an eraser and leader inside.

I think the Blazers come into 2017 a bit overvalued due to the way they finished last season.  One key here is that CJ McCollum is going to miss this game due to a suspension from the preseason.  McCollum averaged 23 points per game last season and is one of the most underrated guards in the NBA.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver Nuggets +2.5

The Denver Nuggets are going to be one of my favorite teams to back this season.  They were one of the hottest teams over the second half last season and barely missed the playoffs.  Their roster is loaded, and it got even better in the offseason.

One key addition came in the form of Paul Millsap. The All-Star forward left the Atlanta Hawks to sign with Denver in free agency. Paired alongside center Nikola Jokic, Millsap promises to give the Nuggets some extra juice on both offense and defense in the frontcourt.

Millsap put up a career-best average of 18.1 points and also collected 7.7 rebounds for the Hawks a season ago. He agreed to a three-year, $90 million deal with Denver over the summer, and he gives the Nuggets a veteran leader who should mesh well with a talented, young core.

Millsap's presence will only make Jokic more dangerous and even tougher to defend. Over Denver's final 28 games last season, Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 12 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

The Utah Jazz are a team I'm not very high on this season.  Losing George Hill and Gordon Hayward will be too much for this team to overcome.  Now a starting lineup that features Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles and Ricky Rubio will not be nearly as dangerous in 2017.  I think Gobert is a great young player, but the rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired.

Denver is 44-25 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games when playing on three or more days' rest.  Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  The Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Philadelphia +7

The Philadelphia 76ers are a team on the rise this season.  They now have a healthy Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We will back them every chance we get as long as they're healthy.

The 76ers also boast the No. 1 overall pick in Markelle Fultz.  They made a great move to get J.J. Redick this season for a sniper from 3-point range.  And both forwards Dario Saric and Robert Covington are two of the more underrated players in the league.

Many expect the Wizards to be one of the contenders in the East.  And while their starting lineup is certainly capable of that label, they have one of the worst depth situations in the NBA.  And now Markieff Morris is going to miss time with a groin injury.

Philadelphia is 49-30 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The 76ers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Wizards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Warriors 2017 NBA Season Opener on Houston +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs mopped the floor with the Golden State Warriors by 40 points in the opener last season.  The Warriors come in overvalued once again this season after winning the title last year.  They are now 9.5-point favorites against the Rockets.

Opening night is certainly a distraction for teams who are coming off a title.  They get their banner hung and receive their rings.  It makes them reflect on last season, and not focus on the present.  Meanwhile, it motivates the opponent.  And that opponent this time around is one that will push the Warriors this season.

Indeed, the Rockets are the second-best team in the NBA this season in my opinion.  They were already the second-best team in the West last year, then they traded for Chris Paul, making an already potent lineup almost unstoppable.  This is the perfect fit for Paul because he doesn't have to have the ball in his hands 100% of the time like he did with the Clippers.  And he's a great spot up shooter. 

Defending BOTH Paul and Harden in the pick and roll will give opposing defenses headaches all season.  And the shooters around these two are tremendous with Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon.  Plus they have both Clint Capela and Nene Hilario to do the dirty work inside.  I really like this team a lot, and I think you'll see why in Game 1 tonight.

Mike D'Antoni is 14-4 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets won 132-127 as 11-point dogs and only lost 98-107 as 8.5-point dogs in their two trips to Golden State last season.  They will have a shot to win this game in the closing seconds as well.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -6

The Golden State Warriors just took the life out of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  They came back from a 6-point deficit in the final three minutes, outscoring the Warriors 11-0 to close the game and win 118-113.

The Cavs thought they had the game won and couldn't close, and now their state of mind is that they're beaten.  I expect the Cavs to come out and try in the first half, but once the Warriors get ahead, I think they will quit fighting and just except their fate.

Conversely, the Warriors will be more motivated than ever to win this game.  They can be the first team in NBA history to go 16-0 in the playoffs.  And what sweet revenge that would be to sweep the Cavs a year after blowing a 3-1 deficit to them.  Simply put, the Warriors are going to want this game more.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS off a home loss this season.  Golden State is 7-0 ATS in all playoff road games this season.  The Warriors are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  The Cavs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Friday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -7

The Golden State Warriors have waited basically a full calendar year for their shot at revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They blew a 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals and lost a tight Game 7 at the wire.  They will get their revenge in this series, starting with Game 1 Thursday night.

The Warriors have upgraded their team since last season, adding a Top 5 player in Kevin Durant, making them virtually unstoppable.  They now have four All-Stars against Cleveland's three in James, Love and Irving.  And the Warriors still have good depth with Andre Iguodala, Ian Clark, JaVale McGee, Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingtston, David West and Patrick McCaw all playing significant minutes.

The difference in this series is defense.  The Warriors ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, while the Cavs ranked 22nd.  And the Warriors have 'Lebron stoppers' in Green and Iguodala, plus Thompson and Durant can hold their own against James when asked to.  No team is better equipped to stop Lebron than Golden State is.

Golden State is now 27-1 SU in its last 28 games, and 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall.  The Warriors have won nine straight games by double-digits in these players.  The Cavs come from the weak East, and even benefited from injuries the past two series to the opposing team's best players in Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas.  They will get exposed in Game 1 tonight.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston +10.5

The Boston Celtics have voiced their frustration through the media about how disappointed they were in letting down their home fans in the first two games of this series.  They want to make amends and give a big effort tonight in Game 5 and go out swinging.

And the Celtics have given the Cavs trouble the past two games without Isaiah Thomas.  They have opened up their offense with a lot more passing, and it has worked.  They won Game 3 and actually held a double-digit lead at halftime of Game 4 before the Cavs pulled away in the second half for a 112-99 victory.  They only lost by 13 on the road despite the Cavs shooting 59.5% from the field for the game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  Plays on home underdogs of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 46-17 (73%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Thursday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston +15.5

The oddsmakers made a huge adjustment after the Celtics lost the first two games of this series by double-digits.  They were 17-point dogs in Game 3 and won outright.  Now they're still 15-point dogs in Game 4, and it's still too big of an adjustment.  The Celtics will stay within the number and give the Cavs another run for their money tonight.

The Cavaliers even shot 14-of-22 from 3-point range in the first half and STILL didn't beat the Celtics.  It's unlikely that they shoot as well as they did again in Game 4, which bodes well for the Celtics covering this 15-point spread.

And the Celtics actually moved the ball perhaps better than any game they had all season, which got everyone involved without Isaiah Thomas.  They had six players score at least 10 points, and sharing the basketball will be the focal point heading into Game 4 as well.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS off a home loss this season.  Boston is 10-2 ATS in road games against Central division opponents this season.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Cleveland.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston +17

The oddsmakers have been forced to set a ridiculous number in Game 3 because they know the betting public will want to continue backing the Cavs at any price.  After all, the Cavs are 10-0 in the playoffs and have gone 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight games overall, so the public isn't going to stop backing them.

But this is simply too big of an adjustment.  The Cavaliers aren't 17 points better than the Celtics at home, even with Isaiah Thomas out for the rest of the playoffs.  These players had Thomas' back when he lost his sister, and now they'll rally for him and give a big effort in Game 3.

The Celtics were embarrassed by 44 points in Game 2.  This is a prideful team that won't want to go out like that.  They aren't going to quit, and in fact I think it will be the Cavaliers that relax a bit in Game 3.  They know they don't have to deal with Thomas so they won't be as focused, especially off their 44-point victory.

Boston is 9-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season.  The Celtics are 14-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons.  The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game Sunday.

25* NBA Conference Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

This is the series for the Boston Celtics.  They can't lose both home games to open the series if they want any chance of giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a run for their money.  I expect a big effort from the Celtics here with their back against the wall after losing Game 1.

The Celtics came out sluggish in Game 1 and fell behind by double-digits right away and could never recover.  I guess you could see that coming after just winning a Game 7 against the Wizards a couple days earlier.  They were probably still fatigued too.

But they weren't aggressive at all, time and time against settling for 3-pointers instead of attacking the basket.  They went 12-of-38 (31.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  Look for Isaiah Thomas and company to be in attack mode from the opening tip.

Boston is 15-3 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The Cavs are 4-14 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.

20* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I think the long layoff for the Cavs is more of a disadvantage than an advantage.  They haven't played since May 7th and will be rusty.  We saw the Warriors get blitzed by the Spurs in the first half of Game 1 after their long layoff.  I think the same thing happens here.

The Boston Celtics are far from tired despite playing a 7-game series.  Rest isn't an issue in the playoffs.  And the Celtics have only played four games in the past 10 days, which would be a great situation to back a team during the regular season.

One thing that really stands out to me and points out the line value in Game 1 is the regular season lines between these teams.  Boston was a 4-point favorite and a 1.5-point favorite in its two home meetings with Cleveland.  Now it is a +5 underdog in Game 1, which is a 9-point difference from their final regular season meeting of 2017 on April 5th.

Cleveland is 3-14 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Boston is 32-17 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Celtics in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 No-Brainer on Boston -4.5

The Boston Celtics let one get away in Game 6, but credit to John Wall for hitting a clutch 3-pointer right before the buzzer.  And it kept the trend of the home team winning every game in this series this season alive.

In fact, the home team is now 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in the 10 meetings between the Wizards and Celtics this season.  The home team has won nine of those 10 meetings by 8 points or more as they have basically all been blowouts outside of Game 6.

The Celtics' home domination of the Wizards has been mighty impressive.  They are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Wizards, winning all eight by 8 points or more.  Boston has outscored Washington by a total of 136 points in those eight games, or by an average of 17.0 points per game.

Boston is 8-1 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wizards are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  Bet the Celtics in Game 7 Monday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +5

I know the home team has absolutely dominated this series this season, going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in nine meetings.  However, I'm going against the grain here as I firmly believe the Boston Celtics close out the Wizards tonight, and we'll take the 5 points for some added insurance.

The Celtics made a big statement in Game 5 with their 123-101 victory.  The Wizards have to be a bit deflated after that defeat, and now all the pressure is on them to try and keep their season alive.  These players haven't been in this situation very often and I question how well they'll handle it.  The Celtics' players will be playing loose and free.

Boston is 15-6 ATS in road games after a game where it covered the spread this season.  The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Wizards are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Boston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 6 No-Brainer on Houston -6.5

The Houston Rockets are the better team in this series.  They have outscored the Spurs despite being down 3-2 in this series.  They won their two games by 27 and 21 points.  I think we see a similar blowout tonight with their backs against the wall at home in Game 6.

The Spurs lost Tony Parker for the rest of the postseason a few games back, and now their best player in Kawhi Leonard is nursing knee and ankle injuries.  He got hurt in Game 5 and didn't return for the final five minutes of regulation or overtime.  The Spurs were fortunate to pull it out, but they have no chance of being competitive in Game 6 without him at near 100%.

The Spurs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win.  The Rockets are 19-10 ATS following a loss this season.  Bet the Rockets in Game 6 Thursday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics -4.5

The Boston Celtics probably relaxed a bit too much following their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in these playoffs that extended back to Game 3 of the Bulls' series.  They were blown out in their two games at Washington in Games 3 and 4.

But now they return home focused and determined to take back control of this series.  And I think we are getting the Celtics at a cheaper price than we should be here simply because they were blown out in both games in Washington.

Home-court advantage has been bigger in this series than any other in the playoffs.  In fact, the home team is a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Celtics are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Wizards, winning all seven by 8 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.

Boston is 10-1 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games over the past three seasons.  It is winning by 14.8 points per game in this spot.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Celtics in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Houston +5.5

I still think the Houston Rockets are the better team in this series, so I'm likely to back them the rest of the way, just as I did in Game 4.  And the numbers have shown that they've been the better team.

The Rockets can score at will.  They have put up 125 and 126 points in their two victories in this series, and the Spurs are a great defensive team.  They have outscored the Spurs by 12 points in four games thus far.

The main theme for me is that the Spurs are too much of a one-man show with Kawhi Leonard, while the Rockets have a number of different players that can beat you outside of James Harden.  The Rockets simply have too many weapons for the Spurs.

Houston is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Utah +9

The Utah Jazz aren't the type of team that is just going to pack it in when trailing 0-3 in the series.  They are a prideful team that wants to put an end to a 9-game losing streak in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  And even if they don't win tonight, they can still easily cover as 9-point dogs.

The Jazz have at least been competitive in all three games, losing by 12, 11 and 11 points.  And they held a lead late against the Warriors before falling apart in the final few minutes to lose by 11 in Game 3.  Plus Steph Curry and Kevin Durant couldn't miss with Durant even banking in a 3-pointer at the end of the shot clock late.

Utah is 39-16 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last three seasons.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% record or better) playing a team with a winning record are 73-38 (65.8%) ATS since 1996.  Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Jazz in Game 4 Monday.

20* Spurs/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Houston -5.5

The Houston Rockets have lost the last two games of this series after winning Game 1 by 27 points.  It appears they have relaxed these last two games, but now they'll be going full throttle at home tonight to try and even this series at 2-2.

Houston scored 126 points in Game 1.  But it has let San Antonio dictate the tempo these past two games, being held to just 96 and 92 points, respectively.  Look for the Rockets to get back to pushing the tempo.  They're not going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 either when they shot 36.4%.

Houston is 8-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite this season.  The Spurs are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - double revenge - two straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Rockets in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Jazz Game 3 No-Brainer on Utah +6.5

The Utah Jazz have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  They are 30-14 at home this season.  They were at least competitive in their two games at Golden State, covering the spread in both games.  Now they are catching 6.5 points at home in Game 3 with the series basically on the line.  I look for a big effort from them here.

The Jazz have played the Warriors tough at home over the past few years.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Salt Lake City, not once losing by more than 7 points.  And the only non-cover came in overtime in a 96-103 loss as 4.5-point dogs last season.

Plays against favorites (Golden State) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (winning at least 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on home underdogs (UTAH) - revenging two straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off two no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite are 37-13 (74%) ATS since 1996.

The Jazz are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on one days' rest.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Jazz in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Spurs/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -4

The Houston Rockets relaxed in Game 2 after throttling the Spurs 126-99 in Game 1.  They actually kept it close for three quarters before getting blown out in the 4th by the Spurs in Game 2.  The Spurs simply wanted that game more, but that won't be the case tonight as the series heads to Houston for Game 3.

I truly believe that the Rockets are the better team in this series and will win it when it's all said and done.  And Game 3 tonight is their chance to prove that they are the better team.  The Rockets have gone 33-11 at home this season and will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd.

James Harden will be motivated to redeem himself following a 3-for-17 shooting performance in Game 2.  And the problem remains for the Spurs that Kawhi Leonard has to do too much for them.  Now his task is even taller with starting PG Tony Parker out for the season with a torn quad muscle suffered in Game 2.  Leonard will have to handle the ball even more on offense for them, while also being tasked with guarding Harden on the other end.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Spurs are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.  Houston is 18-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Take the Rockets in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors +2

This same thing happened last year before the Raptors got back in the series in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Cavs.  They were blown out in their first two games last year in Cleveland, but then rebounded to win Games 3 and 4 at home.  I think they'll repeat that feat again this year.

Home-court advantage has been huge the last two years in the playoffs in this series.  The home team is now 7-1 SU in the last eight playoff games between these teams  The only exception was a Cavs' win in Toronto in Game 6 last year to close out the series.  The Raptors are 30-14 at home this year, while the Cavs are a very vulnerable 22-21 on the road.

I think Cleveland is going to relax in Game 3 tonight.  The Cavaliers have won six straight games to open this postseason just as they did last year.  It's only human nature to relax when things have been going this well for them.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are going to want this game more, and that's going to show on the court and on the scoreboard.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off two straight wins by 10 points or more.  The Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Raptors are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Toronto is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Bet the Raptors in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Washington -5.5

I've been riding the Boston Celtics with a ton of success during their 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS run in their last six games overall.  However, I'm going to switch gears here and take the Washington Wizards in Game 3.

This is do-or-die for the Wizards tonight.  It's a must-win game as they trail 2-0 after blowing Game 2 and eventually losing in overtime.  I look for them to respond in a big way at home tonight and to win by a comfortable margin.

The Wizards have had one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA this season.  They are 33-11 at home while scoring 110.3 points per game and shooting 48.1% from the field.  They are much more comfortable here in DC, and I look for John Wall to have a monster game to lead the way.

Boston is 2-10 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season.  The Celtics are 3-15 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Wizards in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Houston +5.5

We were on the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of this series in a 126-99 victory.  They dominated from start to finish and led by 30 points at halftime.  The Spurs will give a better effort in Game 2, but the fact of the matter remains that the Rockets are the better team.

Getting 5.5 points in Game 2 is a real nice value when you look at the season series.  The Spurs have won three of five meetings, but they haven't won by more than 6 points, and three games have been decided by exactly 2 points.  The Rockets have been the better team in the season series.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 13-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Houston is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the Rockets in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -5

The Boston Celtics have been on a roll ever since Isaiah Thomas returned from his first trip to Washington to see his family.  His mind has been more set at ease, and the Celtics' players have rallied around him during their impressive 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS streak coming in to Game 2.

The Celtics have been much more efficient offensively as they have scored at least 104 points in five straight games.  But perhaps the biggest difference has been defense as they've allowed 97 or fewer points in four of their last five.  This is a locomotive right now that you do not want to step in front of.

The Wizards were shelled for 123 points on 51.1% shooting by the Celtics in Game 1.  Not having Ian Mahinmi really hurts their defense, and now forward Markieff Morris has an ankle injury that he suffered in Game 1.  The Celtics really pulled away once Morris went out with that injury.

The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Wizards.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Houston +6

The Houston Rockets put the Oklahoma City Thunder away in five games and now have had extra rest heading into this series with the San Antonio Spurs.  They haven't played since April 25th and will be ready to go in this series, one that I think they win against a vulnerable Spurs squad.

Getting 6 points in Game 1 is a real nice value when you look at the regular season series.  Yes, the Spurs won three of four meetings, but all four games were decided by 6 points or less, including three by exactly 2 points.  There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well.

The Spurs are vulnerable because they are so reliant on one player in Kawhi Leonard.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been a no-show, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli don't have much left in the tank, and Danny Green is on the downside of his career as well.  Meanwhile, the Rockets are a complete team that can beat you even if James Harden is having an off game, which is rare.

Houston is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Rockets are 13-2 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Houston is 8-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year.  The Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Rockets in Game 1 Monday.

20* Jazz/Clippers Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3.5

The road team has actually won four of the six games in this series.  That is unheard of in a playoff series, and I don't expect that trend to continue in this do-or-die Game 7.  I think that trend has offered us some tremendous line value on the Clippers here laying only 3.5 points.

The Clippers still have the best player in the series in Chris Paul, who has just been a monster in the fourth quarter all series and who I trust more than anyone to get the job done.  And the healthy return of Austin Rivers has been huge as well.  His defense on Gordon Hayward has been great, but he also scored 13 points and hit three 3-pointers in Game 6.

Utah is 17-31 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  Rudy Gobert suffered an ankle injury in the second half of Game 6 and wasn't the same player down the stretch.  I have a hard time believing it will be heeled in time for Game 7, which could be a huge factor in the outcome.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Clippers are tired of early exits in the playoffs.  With Chris Paul healthy, they still have a shot to win this series, and I think they go on the road and get another huge win in Utah like Game 3.  Getting the 6 points here is just an added bonus.

Each of the last three games really could have gone either way.  All three were basically toss-up games in the final minutes, and the Jazz managed to win two of the three thanks to some late-game heroics from Joe Johnson.  I certainly do not believe he can keep up his level of play.

The fact of the matter is that the role players are due for the Clippers.  Both JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford have been off the entire series, but they are too good of shooters to stay cold forever.  And Doc Rivers has more options now to go small and match the Jazz with Austin Rivers healthy.  That small ball lineup got them back into the game in Game 5.

Utah is 2-12 ATS in home games after covering four of its last five against the spread over the past three seasons.  The Clippers are still 19-5 SU in their last 24 meetings with the Jazz.  Look for an inspired effort from them tonight as they try and send this series back to Los Angeles.  Take the Clippers in Game 6 Friday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 6 No-Brainer on Atlanta -3

The home team has won all five meetings in this series, and I think that holds true again here in Game 6.  I would argue that the Hawks have been the better team in this series thus far and should be favored by more at home here.

Atlanta won its two home games by a combined 28 points, while Washington won its three home games by a combined 19 points.  So, the Hawks have actually outscored the Wizards by a combined 9 points in this series thus far despite playing three of five games on the road.

Atlanta has plenty of playoff experience to rely on over the past few years in this do-or-die situation.  Meanwhile, John Wall and the Wizards basically have zero experience in close-out games, which are the toughest to win.

The Hawks are a perfect 9-0 ATS after two consecutive division games over the last two seasons.  Washington is 10-24 ATS in road games versus teams who average 23 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet the Hawks in Game 6 Friday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The home team has won every meeting in this series dating back to the regular season, which is nine straight games.  I was on the Grizzlies in Game 3 and 4 at home, but I have a better feeling today that the Spurs are going to close it out tonight.

The Spurs have clearly been the better team in this series, winning all three home meetings by 13 points or more.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by 43 points in this series, an average of 8.6 points per game.  The Grizzlies were fortunate to win in overtime in Game 4, and I think their luck runs out tonight.

Expect Greg Popovich to challenge his team here to get a road win knowing that they are going to need them down the road if they want to reach their ultimate goal.  And the Rockets are sitting at home waiting on them, so the Spurs don't want this to go to a Game 7 and give the Rockets and even bigger advantage.  They'll be 'all in' tonight to finish the job.  Bet the Spurs in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 5 No-Brainer on Boston -7.5

The Boston Celtics have really played up to their potential in the past two games.  They were out of it after Isaiah Thomas lost his sister, but after he went home to be with his family following two home losses to Chicago, he and the Celtics have come back a completely different team.

They dominated from start to finish in a 104-87 win in Game 3 as 2.5-point road favorites.  Then they jumped out to a big lead early, lost it, and then pulled away in the 4th quarter of a 104-95 win as 1.5-point road favorites in Game 4.

A key in this turnaround has been the loss of Rajon Rondo as the Bulls have been helpless on offense without him.  And while there is talk of Rondo possibly returning tonight, he won't be effective at all considering he has a broken thumb on his shooting hand.  It would do the Bulls more harm than good to have him in there.

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Boston tonight, and I think these players are going to be extra motivated to put on a great performance after disappointing their fans in the first two home games.  There's nothing the Bulls can do to halt their momentum right now.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

20* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Clippers did not play up to their standards defensively in Utah, giving up 52.2% shooting and 106 points in Game 3, and 54.1% and 105 points in Game 4.  They still managed to split 1-1 and easily could have won both.  Look for them to be much better on defense when they return home for a huge Game 5 Tuesday night.

The Jazz are in trouble right now because they are relying too much on the likes of Joe Johnson and Joe Ingles to make plays for them.  Johnson, Ingles and Rodney Hood caught fire late in Game 4 to erase an 8-point deficit in the 4th and win, but that's unlikely to happen again in Utah.

Rudy Gobert isn't 100%, and Gordon Hayward missed most of Game 4 due to food poisoning.  It's uncertain if Hayward will be back for Game 5, and even if he is he certainly won't be feeling anywhere near 100%.

The Clippers have had a huge home-court advantage all season, going 30-13 straight up.  They basically just have to win this game to cover the 3-point spread.  And they still own the Jazz, going 19-4 in their last 23 meetings.  I trust in veteran Chris Paul to lead this team to victory even without Blake Griffin as Paul is by far their most important player.

Utah is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 157-99 (61.3%) ATS since 1996.   The Jazz are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta -2

I would argue that the Atlanta Hawks have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They were in both games in Washington in losses by 7 and 8 points before fading late.  Then they blew out the Wizards by 18 in Game 3, and now they actually are +3 in point differential in the series.

What I like about the Hawks is how aggressive they have been in getting to the basket.  They shot 39 free throws in Game 1, 38 in Game 2 and 32 in Game 3.  The Wizards haven't been able to keep Dennis Shroeder out of the paint as he's averaging 25 points in this series.  I also like how Schroeder picked Wall up defensively full court in Game 3, making it more difficult for the Wizards to get into their offense.

"I watched video," Schroder said. "The first two games it was too easy to just bring it up half-court and have all these passes. I told Coach I want to be in his stuff. I want to take him full court. That's what I did (Saturday), and it worked well."

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wizards are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 4 Monday.

15* Clippers/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT On Utah -2.5

The Utah Jazz let the Los Angeles Clippers off the hook in Game 3.  The blew an 8-point lead late as Chris Paul simply took over down the stretch.  The Clippers rallied around each other after losing Blake Griffin to an injury, and they came through with a huge win.

But now it's the Jazz turn to get a big win here and get right back in this series.  They can't afford to go back to Los Angeles down 3-1.  I look for a big effort from them here behind a raucous home crowd.  The Jazz are 29-13 at home this season and have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.

Make no mistake, the Clippers aren't going anywhere now that Griffin is out for the rest of the postseason.  The Clippers just haven't been the same without him in the past, and they really can't afford to lose him, Paul or DeAndre Jordan.  The loss of Griffin for the Clippers is bigger than the loss of Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.

Utah is 37-16 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - off a home loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 51-23 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/Bulls Game 4 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

The Boston Celtics were distracted with the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister in the first two games.  But he went home after Game 2 and spent time with his family to grieve.  In Game 3, players rallied around him and got back to focusing on basketball, and the end result was a dominant 104-87 win.

The Celtics also got a motivational speech from Kevin Garnett, the former Boston great.  Every player to a man said it was the difference, and I believe them.  But with the Celtics still having their backs against the wall, this Game 4 remains a must-win, and I think we see another big effort from them.

Boston got a break when Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2.  Now he's out indefinitely, and he was nearly averaging a triple-double in the first two games.  The Bulls simply don't have a good backup point guard, so Rondo's absence is huge for them.  It puts more pressure on Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade to handle the ball, but they are much better playing off the ball and letting Rondo run the show.

The Bulls are just 3-10 in their last 13 playoff home games, including three straight losses.  I just don't think their home-court advantage is enough for them to overcome the loss of Rondo.  The Celtics are the far superior team in this matchup and that will be shown again in Game 4.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -2.5

The Atlanta Hawks were competitive in Games 1 and 2 in Washington, losing by 7 and 8 points.  They did not finish either game well as they had a chance to win down the stretch.  But now with their backs against the wall, I expect their best effort of the series as the head home for Game 3.

Adding to the Hawks' motivation is the fact that they have now lost five straight meetings with the Wizards dating back to the regular season.  It's safe to say that they are going to want this game more, and I expect them to get it in front of their home fans tonight.

Washington is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after two straight games where it committed 7 or fewer turnovers than its opponents.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Clippers/Jazz ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1.5

The Los Angeles Clippers seemed to relax when Rudy Gobert went out with an injury in Game 1.  They lost that game on a buzzer-beater by Joe Johnson, but they came back focused in Game 2 and got the job done in a 99-91 victory.

Now Gobert remains out for the Jazz tonight, and it's a huge loss for them.  Look for the Clippers to seize the opportunity and take Game 3 to regain home-court advantage.  They are clearly the more talented team and still own the Jazz, going 19-3 SU in their last 22 meetings.

Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have all put up huge numbers through the first two games.  But the role players have really struggled, and they won't continue to.  Jamal Crawford is shooting a paltry 29.2% and is 0-for-9 from 3-point range.  J.J. Redick is averaging just 5.5 points and shooting 20% from 3-point range in this series.  Look for these two to be much more efficient moving forward.

Plays against underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 55-17 (76.4%) ATS since 1996.  The road team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Clippers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Celtics/Bulls ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -1.5

It is gut check time for the Boston Celtics in Game 3 tonight.  The Celtics inexplicably lost the first two games in this series at home, and now they know that their season is on the line tonight.  It's basically win or go home here.

The death of Isaiah Thomas' sister was a huge distraction in the first two games as the Celtics were clearly out of it.  But Thomas went home to his family after Game 2 to deal with it.  Now he'll come back with a clearer mind in Game 3, and I think the players will rally around him in one of their best efforts of the season.

The Celtics got a big break when it was announced that Rajon Rondo suffered a broken thumb in Game 2 and is now out indefinitely.  There will be a huge void at the PG position for the Bulls now because Rondo was playing very well, averaging 11.5 points, 10.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.

The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Bulls are 10-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  Boston is 41-27 ATS when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Friday.

20* Cavs/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +2.5

The Indiana Pacers are the worst road team in the playoffs.  However, they managed to take the Cavs down to the wire on the road in each of the first two games of this series, losing by 1 and 6 points, respectively.  Now they'll be laying it all on the line to get a win in Game 3 and get back in this series.

And they should do just that now that they are returning to Indiana, where they are one of the best home teams in the playoffs.  The Pacers have gone 29-12 at home this season.  They have now gone 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Cavaliers actually had a losing record on the road this season.  They went 20-21 SU & 17-24 ATS on the road this year.  The Pacers have gone 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Indiana.

Indiana is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games playing on two days' rest.  The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six Conference Quarterfinals games.  The Cavaliers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Thunder/Rockets Game 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +8

The Oklahoma City Thunder were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1.  They only managed 87 points and shot just 37% from the field.  Expect them to come back with a much better effort in Game 2 and to stay within the number as they try and steal this one.

"Looking at video, it was definitely down to positioning and getting those reads on when to go," Thunder center Steven Adams said. "You can't be premature about it, otherwise they do what they do. We cleared it up a lot more, bigs and guards. We've got to make sure we come out more aggressive, aggressive and physicality. Forcing them to do stuff rather than letting them do stuff."

Three of the four meetings during the regular season went right down to the wire and were decided by 3 points or less.  I expect this one to hold true to form and to go down to the last few possessions, so getting the Thunder are +8 is a huge value here.

Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 2 days' rest.  The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Thunder in Game 2 Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -8.5

After Rudy Gobert went out with an injury on the first possession of Game 1, the Clippers appeared to relax and think that they would win the game by just showing up.  That wasn't the case as the Jazz rallied around Gobert and stole Game 1.

I think that with that wake-up call, the Clippers will put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.  Gobert remains out for Game 2, meaning that the Clippers will have a massive advantage inside.  Look for monster games from Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in this one as Los Angeles evens this series in blowout fashion.

This has been a very one-sided series over the last several years.  Indeed, the Clippers are 18-3 in their last 21 meetings with the Jazz.  Utah is 2-10 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last two seasons.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Clippers in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -7

After losing Game 1 to the Bulls, I fully expect the Boston Celtics to bounce back in a big way in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game going away similar to their 100-80 home win over the Bulls in their final regular season meeting.

The Isaiah Thomas news with his sister passing away really was a down for this team.  Now that they've had a few extra days to cope with it, I think they'll come back more focused tonight and get back to playing their brand of basketball.

Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 74-36 (67.3%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 9-23 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 16-30 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 2 No-Brainer on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers know they can play with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They took them to double-OT in Cleveland in their final meeting of the regular season on April 2nd, and then they had a chance to win it at the buzzer in a 108-109 loss in Game 1 Saturday.

The Pacers had to win each of their final five regular season games just to make the playoffs.  They are clearly playing their best basketball of the season right now, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Yet they continue getting no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs here in Game 2.

The Cavaliers actually have a losing record since the All-Star Break.  The betting public just thinks that they can turn it on the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be the case.  We'll make some good money fading them throughout the postseason.

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinal Games.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Cleveland is 18-38-1 ATS in its last 57 vs. division opponents, while Indiana is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 vs. division foes.  The Pacers are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* Thunder/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

Russell Westbrook got some much-needed rest over the final week of the regular season and will be ready to go in the playoffs.  That's important because the Thunder get outscored by 9 points per 100 possessions when he's not on the court, and outscore their opponents by 3 points per 100 when he is on the floor.

Westbrook only averages 34 minutes per game in the regular season.  That will be closer to 40 minutes in the postseason as Billy Donovan knows he needs Westbrook on the floor as much as possible.  That adjustment will make the Thunder a much better team throughout the course of a 48-minute game.

Yes, Houston won three of four meetings with OKC this season, but three of them were decided by 3 points or less.  I have a good feeling this game is going to go right down to the wire.  The Rockets come in playing their worst ball of the season, going 0-9 ATS in their last nine games.  I don't think they can just flip on the switch, either.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Jazz/Clippers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are the second-best team in the Western Conference when healthy in my opinion.  They battled through injuries to several key players this season, including Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, but now they are full healthy entering the playoffs.

And as they've chased down the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, they've played their best basketball of the season now healthy.  Indeed, the Clippers are 7-0 in their last seven games overall, including five straight double-digit victories.  They needed all seven wins to fend off the Jazz for the No. 4 seed.

The Jazz are an up-and-coming team that is going to be a playoff contender for the foreseeable future.  However, not many of the key players on the Jazz like Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward have playoff experience, so they will be at a disadvantage in that respect.

The Clippers simply own the Jazz, going 18-2 SU in the last 20 meetings.  They won three of four meetings this season all by 13 points or more.  Utah is 1-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  The Jazz are 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* Pacers/Cavs 2017 NBA Playoffs Opener on Indiana +8.5

The Indiana Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs.  They needed to win their final five games of the season just to get into the playoffs, and that's precisely what they did.  In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with all five of their wins coming by 9 points or more.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone in the opposite direction.  Needing to win just two of their final four games to get the No. 1 seed in the East, they instead went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in those four contests.  They gave up at least 114 points in three of the four losses, and defense has been a problem with this team all season.

The Pacers were very competitive with the Cavaliers in the regular season.  They did go just 1-3 SU, but two of their losses came by single-digits, including the latest in double-overtime in Cleveland in a 130-135 loss on April 2nd.  They believe they can play with the Cavs, which is half the battle.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in road games when playing on two days' rest over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 1-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 15-35-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Denver Nuggets +5

The Denver Nuggets could have easily packed it in after getting eliminated from the playoffs with two games to go.  Instead, they went out and handled their business last night, dismantling the Mavericks 109-91 on the road.  Now they have a chance to get to 40 wins in their final game of the season, and I think they'll be the more motivated team here.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  Russell Westbrook rested in their last game, and he's unlikely to play many minutes tonight.  The Thunder are way more concerned about staying healthy and fresh for the playoffs than winning this game tonight.

Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, and I think that benefits the Nuggets more because they are the deeper team.  This situation will only force the Thunder to get as much rest as possible for their key players.

Denver is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.  Plays against any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -4

The Minnesota Timberwolves just completed a brutal four-game road trip with trips to the Warriors, Blazers, Jazz and Lakers.  They were competitive the entire trip and clearly have not quit.  Now they return home to play their final home game of the season and will want to go out a winner in front of their fans.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for.  They are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the West.  Russell Westbrook just got his record-setting 42nd triple double last time out, so they don't need to focus on that either.  Don't be surprised one bit if Billy Donovan decided to rest his starters these final two games.

The line move in this game suggests that he will rest his starters, or at least limit their minutes.  The Timberwolves opened as -1 favorites and have already been bet up to -4, and I see it going much higher before the game starts.  It would be foolish of the Thunder to go all out in this game.

Oklahoma City is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 games off a road win by 3 points or less.  The Timberwolves are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home meetings with OKC.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* Rockets/Clippers TNT Monday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -7

The Los Angeles Clippers are tied with the Utah Jazz at 49-31.  These teams will play in the first round of the playoffs, but home-court advantage is still at stake.  The Clippers own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny here.

And the Clippers have certainly been fighting to make sure they get home court in the first round.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall, winning all five games by at least 6 points, and four of those by 9 points or more.  They are hitting on all cylinders heading into the playoffs.

The Rockets have pretty much been locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West for a while now.  As a result, their play has suffered as they are just 3-4 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  This game means absolutely nothing to them, and they could rest players since they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  This will be just the 3rd game in 9 days for the Clippers.

The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall.  These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Los Angeles.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets -4

The Denver Nuggets need a win Sunday or they'll be officially eliminated from the playoffs.  They have played well under this pressure down the stretch, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of them on the road.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have nothing to play for as they are locked in to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.  That showed in their effort last time out as they lost 99-120 as 9-point road favorites at Phoenix, failing to cover the spread by 30 points.

Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who score at least 106 points per game in the second half of hte season this season.  The Nuggets are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +3.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference.  They trail the Utah Jazz by just one game for that spot, which would give them home-court advantage in that upcoming series.  The Jazz have a tough game in Portland tonight.

The San Antonio Spurs have nothing to play for right now.  They are locked in to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  As a result, there's no way they should be favored in this game when they don't care about it, while the Clippers really need it.

And the Clippers have a huge advantage in rest and preparation here.  They have won four straight coming in and have had the last two days off, and they'll be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The Spurs will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA today.

Bets against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 212-137 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.  The underdog is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1

The Boston Celtics have lost two in a row and now are not only in a tough spot to get the No. 1 seed, but also in jeopardy of losing the No. 2 seed.  They trail the Cavs by one game for the No. 1 and lead the Raptors by one game for the No. 2.  Simply put, they will be highly motivated for a win tonight.

The same cannot be said for the Charlotte Hornets, who aren't mathematically eliminated, but essentially are eliminated from the playoffs.  That's because they are three games behind both the No. 7 Bulls and No. 8 Pacers for the last two playoff spots.  There is only three games to play, so you do the math.  I don't expect the Hornets to show up at all tonight.

The Celtics simply own the Hornets.  They are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They won by 10 and 8 at home earlier this season, and also by 6 on the road.  Now they will cap off the season sweep of the Hornets tonight.

The Hornets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games.  Charlotte is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic division opponents.  The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in Saturday home games this season.  Bets on road teams (BOSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 114-57 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Celtics Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat are a half-game behind both the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers for the 7th and 8th spots in the playoffs, respectively.  A win tonight would get them back in as they own the tiebreaker over the Pacers, so they will be highly motivated for a victory here.

The Toronto Raptors are playing for nothing other than playoff positioning.  There isn't a whole lot of difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 seed, which the Raptors are currently in.  They certainly don't need this game as much as the Heat do.

The Heat will be well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while this will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Raptors.  Toronto needed a 20-point comeback to beat Detroit 105-102 on Wednesday, a Pistons team that really had nothing to play for.

The Heat are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.  Better yet, Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Heat are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games overall.  Bet the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers are in a three-way tie with the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.  Unfortunately for them, they lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they are on the outside looking in right now.

They'll clearly be motivated as a result, and I like what I saw from them in a 108-90 home win over the Raptors on Tuesday after losing in double-overtime to Cleveland on the road the game prior.  Lance Stephenson gave them a spark in the second half, and Paul George is on a tear, averaging 31.3 points in his last eight games.

"I'm dialed in," George told Pacers.com. "Whatever it takes to get it, I'm going to work my butt off and try to get us on the right path. Every night I am going to try and put it all out on that floor."

The Milwaukee Bucks are only playing for either the 5th or 6th seed, so not nearly as much is at stake for them.  And they are playing like it, getting upset 105-109 as 6.5-point home favorites against the Mavs, and getting blown out 79-110 at Oklahoma City as 6-point dogs in their last two games coming in.

The Pacers had lost the first three meetings of the season to the Raptors before beating them by 18 last time out.  Well, they'll also be looking to avoid the season sweep after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Bucks as well.  That will only add to their motivation tonight.

Indiana is 27-12 at home this season.  The Pacers are 14-4 ATS in a home game with a total of 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Pacers are 21-10 ATS vs. division opponents over the past two seasons.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* Warriors/Suns NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +10

The Golden State Warriors are way overvalued right now due to winning 12 straight games coming in.  This winning streak has allowed them to clinch the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, which means they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.

Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight, so they are extremely tired right now.  That's why they are expected to rest both Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala tonight, and Kevin Durant isn't expected to return until Saturday.

The Phoenix Suns are undervalued due to losing 12 straight coming in, but they have been competitive of late, going 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  That includes a 6-point loss to the Clippers, a 10-point loss at Boston, a 4-point loss at Atlanta, and a 7-point loss to Houston.  They will show up for the Warriors tonight at home.

Phoenix is 24-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Golden State.  Take the Suns Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +8.5

The Denver Nuggets have gone on the road and pulled off back-to-back upset wins over the Heat and Pelicans to pull within a half-game of the Portland Trail Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a win in Houston tonight.

Conversely, the Houston Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, so they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  That has started to show as they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  And now they are dealing with some key injuries as both Sam Dekker (hand) and Ryan Anderson (ankle) are out, while Trevor Ariza (personal) and James Harden (flu) are both questionable tonight.

The Nuggets will want revenge from losing each of the first three meetings with the Rockets this season and avoiding the season sweep.  The last two have been excruciating as they lost 109-105 at home, and 124-125 on the road.  I think they'll easily stay within this 8.5-point spread, possibly pulling off the upset tonight.

The Nuggets are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are tied with the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They lose the tiebreaker, so they need to actually gain a game on the Heat the rest of the way to get in.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight, especially after four straight losses coming in, including a double-OT hearbreaker against the Cavs last time out.

The good news for the Pacers is that they'll be playing on their home floor tonight, where they have been dominant all season.  The Pacers are 26-12 at home this year.  They are clearly undervalued right now due to their recent skid, and they want revenge from a 100-111 loss at Toronto on March 31st just a few days ago.

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued due to going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  This entire run has come against teams seeded 7th or worst in the playoff standings currently.  They have beaten up on some bad teams, but they will get some resistance from a Pacers team tonight that is desperate for a win.

The home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  Indiana is 24-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* UNC/Gonzaga Championship Game No-Brainer on UNC -1

The UNC Tar Heels suffered the agony of losing on a buzzer-beater in last year's championship game against Villanova. They've been on a mission all season to get that sour taste out of their mouths, and now they have a chance to do just that by beating Gonzaga Monday.

The Bulldogs have had a huge size advantage against everyone they have faced this season.  But that won't be the case against UNC, which is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 43% of their own misses on the season.  They have done so behind the duo of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.

The X-factor for the Tar Heels' is Theo Pinson, who has missed 19 games this season due to injury, but has gotten healthy and come up huge in the NCAA Tournament.  He is their best perimeter defender, and he will harass Nigel Williams-Goss and whoever he is matched up against in this game.  He just makes so many huge plays that don't always show up in the box score, including game-winning plays against both Kentucky and Oregon.

UNC has faced the much tougher path to reach the Championship Game.  Gonzaga couldn't have had a much easier path with games against South Dakota State, Northwestern, WVU, Xavier and South Carolina.  I think the fact that the Tar Heels are more battle-tested and that they were just here last year will be a huge advantage.  You can't simulate their championship game experience.

Bets on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 21-8-3 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet North Carolina Monday.

15* Jazz/Spurs ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Utah +5.5

The San Antonio Spurs are essentially locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  They aren't catching the Warriors, and they are way ahead of the Rockets.  I question their motivation the rest of the regular season as a result.

Greg Popovich is taking the conservative approach already.  LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobli and Danny Green are all expected to miss today's game due to either minor injuries or rest.  So the Spurs will be short-handed for this matchup already.

Unlike the Spurs, the Jazz actually have something to play for.  The lead the Clippers by just one game for the 4th seed, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round.  The Jazz have been fighting to hold on to that seed, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games coming in.

Utah is 37-14 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons.  The Jazz are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday games.  The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.  Take the Jazz Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been disrespected the entire NCAA Tournament.  They are still getting no love from oddsmakers here as 7-point underdogs in the Final Four, and that's precisely the way that Frank Martin and company like it.

The Gamecocks have pulled four straight 'upsets' to get here in beating Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida.  But really, these games weren't even all that close as all four wins came by 7 points or more, including two by exactly 20 points.  The Gamecocks are playing as well as anyone right now.

This is a team that I love to back because they get after it defensively better than anyone in college basketball.  Nothing comes easy against them, and offensively, they have found their stride in the tournament, averaging 82.0 points per game. They have the best player in the tournament to bail them out in Sindarius Thornwell, who is averaging 25.8 points in the big dance while scoring at least 24 points in every game.

The Gamecocks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 non-conference games.  South Carolina is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 neutral site games.  I think Gonzaga is being overvalued here due to its blowout win over Xavier in the Elite 8.  But the Musketeers didn't belong in the Elite 8 and were the worst team left in the field.  The only real team that Gonzaga has faced is West Virginia, and it was fortunate to escape with a 3-point victory.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4.5

The Chicago Bulls got a big break yesterday when BOTH the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers lost.  That means they are just 0.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East as they sit at 36-39, while both the Pacers and Heat are 37-39.  They can pull even with them with a win today.

The Bulls will be well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And they'll come in with confidence after pulling off back-to-back upsets 109-94 at Milwaukee as 6.5-point dogs, and 99-93 at home over Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs.

The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Their two wins were struggles over Phoenix (by 4) and Philadelphia (by 7).  They are 2-8 without Paul Millsap this season.  Millsap will be out again Saturday, as will their best defender in Thobo Sefolosha, who would usually match up with Jimmy Butler.

The Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Take the Bulls Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5

We're getting the Utah Jazz at a discount at home tonight as only 2.5-point favorites over the Washington Wizards.  The Jazz are motivated to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and they have played like it their past two games.

Rudy Gobert called out his team following a 95-108 loss to the Clippers on Saturday.  His team has responded by beating the Pelicans 108-100 as 6-point home favorites, and then throttling the Kings 112-82 as 7.5-point road favorites.

The Jazz are 25-12 at home this season and own one of the better home-court advantages in the league.  The Wizards are 17-19 on the road this season.  This will be the 3rd game in 4 days, 5th game in 8 days and the 15th game in 25 days for the Wizards.  They have had a brutal schedule 11 of their last 15 games on the road and they are simply running out of gas right now.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Wizards are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 1 days rest.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing as well as anyone in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-3 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  This run has put them into the 8th seed in the Western Conference, just one game ahead of the Denver Nuggets.

While the Blazers have everything to play for, the Rockets are locked in to the No. 3 seed in the West.  I expect them to lack focus down the stretch as a result knowing that winning or losing doesn't matter to them now.

And this is an awful spot for the Rockets.  They are coming off a loss to the Warriors on Tuesday, and now they have a huge game against Golden State on deck tomorrow where they'll be looking for revenge.  I don't expect them to show up at all tonight given the spot.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Georgia Tech/TCU NIT No-Brainer on TCU -4

The TCU Horned Frogs are clearly on a mission to win the NIT.  And I expect them to get the job done in Jamie Dixon's first year on the job Thursday with another win and cover against Georgia Tech tonight.

I would argue that TCU has beaten three straight opponents that are all better than anyone Georgia Tech has faced in its last three games.  The Horned Frogs won at Iowa, then blew out Richmond (by 18) and UCF (by 15).  Tech's three wins have come against Belmont, Ole Miss and CS-Bakersfield.

The Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.  That includes an upset win over Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament.  TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet TCU Thursday.

20* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on San Antonio -4

The San Antonio Spurs have played their best basketball against the NBA's top teams.  Indeed, they are 9-1 against the top four teams in the NBA in the Warriors, Cavs, Rockets and Celtics this season.  Their only loss was by two points in November to the Rockets.

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating Houston 113-106 on the road last night.  They will certainly be the more tired team considering the Spurs had yesterday off following their 103-74 thrashing of Cleveland on Monday.

The Spurs have absolutely owned the Warriors in both meetings this season.  They won 129-100 as 8-point road underdogs on October 25th and 107-85 as 10.5-point home favorites on March 11th.  Look for them to improve to 3-0 against the Warriors this season and inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the West tonight.

Golden State is 6-16 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  San Antonio is 19-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game this season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers have fought their way back into an 8th-place tie with the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference.  Now they get to host the Nuggets tonight, and they aren't about to let this golden opportunity slip by.

The Blazers have put themselves in this position by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  Indeed, they've gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Each of their last five victories have come by 11 points or more, so these games really haven't even been close.

The Blazers have owned the Nuggets, too.  They are 5-1 in the last six meetings, and 13-2 in the last 15 meetings.  The Blazers are 30-11 straight up in their last 41 home meetings, including 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Portland.

Portland is 13-2 ATS after a combined score of 185 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers are 26-11 at home this season.  They have the biggest home/away difference in the league this year.  We'll back them at home here against a struggling Minnesota Timberwolves team with nothing to play for.

The Timberwolves have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are clearly just playing out the string.  But they've also had a brutal schedule with 11 of their last 15 games on the road, and this tough slate appears to be catching up with them.

Bets against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off two consecutive road losses by 10 points or more are 64-29 (68.8%) ATS since 1996.

Indiana is 13-3 ATS in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  Minnesota is 14-30 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 5-1 ATS int heir last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the Pacers Tuesday.

15* CS-Bakersfield/GA Tech NIT No-Brainer on CS-Bakersfield +2.5

Bakersfield has been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point.  It has pulled off three straight outright road upsets over California (73-66) as 6.5-point dogs, Colorado State (81-63) as 4.5-point dogs and UT-Arlington (80-76) as 4-point dogs.

You could argue that all three of those teams they've already beaten are better than Georgia Tech.  Now Bakersfield finds itself in the role of the dog once again in the semifinals.  This team has been playing tremendous defense, limiting Cal to 33.3% shooting, Colorado State to 34.5% and Arlington to 35.5%.

Georgia Tech is just 3-11 in all road games this season, while Bakersfield is 13-8 away from home.  Bakersfield is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog.  The Roadrunners are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Roll with Bakersfield Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +2

The Dallas Mavericks are 3.5 games behind the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They need to finish strong to have any hope, and I like their chances of taking down the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight.

This is an awful spot for the Thunder, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 125-137 loss at Houston yesterday.  That shootout clearly took a lot out of them.  Russell Westbrook played 39 minutes in the defeat.

Oklahoma City is 1-9 ATS in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread this season.  The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Dallas is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Mavericks Monday.

20* South Carolina/Florida East Region No-Brainer on Florida -3.5

The Florida Gators have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their three games.  They beat East Tennessee State by 15, Virginia by 26 and Wisconsin by 1.  They led the Badgers by 12 late in the second half, though.

South Carolina has been the story of the NCAA Tournament, but this Cinderella story comes to an end Sunday.  I like the toughness the Gamecocks have shown, but they've beaten some overrated teams in Marquette, Duke and Baylor to get here.

Now they're up against the 3rd-best team in the country in Florida according to Kenpom.  The Gators rank 4th in defensive efficiency and 25th in offensive efficiency in his rankings.  They should be roughly an 8-point favorite over South Carolina on a neutral court, instead they're only laying 8.5 here.

Florida is 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season.  The Gators are 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Florida Sunday.

20* Oregon/Kansas Midwest Region No-Brainer on Kansas -7

The Kansas Jayhawks have been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament thus far.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with wins by 38, 20 and 32 points.  They are simply obliterating the competition, and I expect that to continue here tonight.

The Jayhawks have certainly used location from their No. 1 seed to their advantage.  They got to play close to home in their first two games in Tulsa, and their next two games have been in Kansas City.  They have rode their home crowd edge to 100, 90 and 98 points offensively in their three games.

Oregon has been fortunate to make it this far, needing late comebacks to beat Rhode Island (75-72) and Michigan (69-68). But now the Ducks take a big step up in class here, and this is where the loss of Chris Boucher inside will finally hurt them. Look for Kansas to get whatever it wants offensively and to hang another big number on this Oregon defense.

Kansas is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams who allow 42% or less after 15-plus games this season.  The Ducks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Wisconsin/Florida East Region BAILOUT on Florida PK

No team has been more impressive in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament than Florida.  After beating East Tennessee State as 9.5-point favorites, the Gators rolled Virginia 65-39 as 1.5-point favorites.  They are hitting on all cylinders right now.

Wisconsin is getting a lot of love right now for its upset of Villanova.  However, that was a perfect matchup for the Badgers as they took advantage of their size and the Wildcats' lack of it.  They won't have that same advantage inside over the Gators here.

Kenpom's rankings have Florida as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree.  They have Wisconsin at 21st.  According to his rankings, the Gators should be roughly 6-point favorites in this game.  I tend to agree with that as well.  This Gators team has been underrated all season.

Florida is 9-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.  The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Gators are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a win by more than 20 points.  Bet Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -6

Don't look now but the Milwaukee Bucks are sitting in 6th place in the Eastern Conference just one game behind Atlanta for the No. 5 seed.  Just a few weeks ago it was looking like the Bucks wouldn't even make the playoffs.

But they have buckled down and played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  They've gone 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall, including a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home over this span with all five wins coming by 7 points or more.

The Atlanta Hawks are stuck in strugglesville thanks to key injuries to Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore, both of which are expected to sit out tonight.  They are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those losses coming by 8 or more points.  It's hard to envision them being able to hang with the Bucks without Millsap and Bazemore tonight.

Bets against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 61-24 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +12

The Brooklyn Nets don't have to tank because they are essentially guaranteed to finish with the worst record in the NBA. As a result, they have been playing their best basketball of the season of late.  They are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

The Washington Wizards were on fire going into the All-Star Break, but they came out of it overvalued because of it.  And that has shown in the market place as the Wizards are just 4-12 ATS since the Break.  They have gone 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

This is an awful spot for the Wizards, who will be looking ahead to their huge game tomorrow night against the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road.  They won't be focused on the Nets, certainly not enough to put them away by 12-plus points.  Look for them to struggle to even win this game, let alone win by margin.

Washington is 4-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  Bets against home favorites of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 76-34 (69.1%) ATS since 1996.   The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.  Take the Nets Friday.

15* Xavier/Arizona West Region BAILOUT on Arizona -7.5

The Arizona Wildcats are are set up well to make the Final Four and win it all.  They have will have played close to home all tournament, and that's the case again for the next two rounds as they'll be playing in San Jose, CA.  And then the Final Four will be in Phoenix.

The Wildcats have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall, including 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six.  They have the best big man duo in the country down low, and their guards have really taken their games to the next level, especially since getting Alonzo Trier back from suspension.

Xavier has had a nice run thus far, pulling off back-to-back upsets over Maryland and Florida State.  But those two teams faded down the stretch and were two of the most inconsistent teams coming into the tournament.  Xavier meets its match today in Arizona.

Arizona is 8-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  Xavier is 1-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season.  The Musketeers simply don't have the man power to match up with Arizona's two 7-footers inside.  Take Arizona Thursday.

25* Midwest Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -5

The Kansas Jayhawks have a huge home-court advantage over Purdue in the Sweet 16.  This game will be played in Kansas City at the Sprint Center, the same location where they play the Big 12 Tournament every year.  It will be a pro-Jayhawk crowd to say the least.

The Jayhawks also had a decided home-court edge in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in Tulsa, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  They dominated Cal Davis 100-62 as 23-point favorites, and also rolled Michigan State 90-70 as 8-point favorites.  This team is on a mission and has been as impressive as anyone thus far.

Guard play wins out in the NCAA Tournament, and Kansas has the best trio in the country in Mason, Graham and Jackson.  The Boilermakers will be at a severe disadvantage on that front as they don't have the guards that can stay with them.  Athletically, this is a huge mismatch in favor of Kansas.

The Jayhawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.  The Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 8-1 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two seasons.  Bet Kansas Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers have been a covering machine, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are a ridiculous 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games overall, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming in.

Now they are catching a whopping 10.5 points against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is in a terrible spot.  The Thunder will suffer a hangover from their home loss to the Warriors on Monday.  They also have a huge game at Houston on deck, so this is a sandwich game for them.

Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The 76ers are 13-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the 76ers.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally starting to play up to their potential with DeMarcus Cousins.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to continue their playoff push.  In their three home games during this stretch, all three resulted in blowouts over Portland (by 23), Houston (by 16) and Minnesota (by 14).

The Memphis Grizzlies also come in playing well.  They had lost five straight prior to their current four-game winning streak.  But they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now, and this is clearly a letdown spot off their upset home win over the Spurs last time out.

Not only is this a letdown spot, but it's also a lookahead spot for the Grizzlies.  They have two huge road games on deck against the Spurs and Warriors.  I don't expect them to give the Pelicans their full attention tonight as a result.

The Grizzlies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Tuesday games.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six Tuesday games.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* Boise State/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Boise State +8.5

The Boise State Broncos went on the road and beat Utah outright 73-68 as 12-point underdogs in the opening round of the NIT.  They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 8.5-point dogs to Illinois in the second round.

The Broncos have been a great bet on the road this season, going 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS in all away games.  This is a team that only lost by 5 as 18-point road underdogs in non-conference play, too.  They will be in this game from start to finish against a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad.

The Fighting Illini lost to Rutgers 59-62 in the season finale and were blown out by Michigan 55-75 in the Big Ten Tournament.  And now they're getting too much respect from the books for their 82-57 win over Valparaiso in the first round of the NIT.  That's a Valpo team that fell apart down the stretch after losing their best player in Alec Peters to a season-ending injury.

Boise State is 26-14 ATS in road games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog of 7.0-8.5 points.  Take Boise State Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had three days off since thumping the Charlotte Hornets 98-77 at home on Wednesday.  Look for a big effort from them tonight with all this time off coming in.

The Toronto Raptors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They haven't been playing well since losing their floor general in Kyle Lowry to injury.  They are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 6, 15 and 21 points in the process.

The Pacers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 Sunday games.  Indiana is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pacers Sunday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -2

The Iowa Hawkeyes showed they wanted to be in the NIT with their 87-75 win over South Dakota in the opener.  The Hawkeyes shot 56.5% from the field and were led by some tremendous games from their freshmen.  Tyler Cook had 18 points and 8 rebounds, Isaiah Moss had 16 points and Jordan Bohannon has 19 points and 11 assists, all three being freshmen.

Now the Hawkeyes are up against a TCU team that had NCAA Tournament aspirations before going 3-8 in their final 11 games of the season.  Meanwhile, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Horned Frogs are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in true road games this season.  They'll be up against an Iowa team that has dominated at home, going 15-4 SU & 10-5 ATS on the season.

The Horned Frogs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  TCU is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games.  The Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Hawkeyes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  TCU is 1-10 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons.  Bet Iowa Sunday.

15* Wichita State/Kentucky No-Brainer on Kentucky -4

There's no question that Wichita State will want revenge on Kentucky from a few years ago when the Wildcats handed the Shockers their first loss in the NCAA Tournament.  They were a No. 8 seed while the Shockers were a No. 1 seed, and the Wildcats actually went on to lose to UConn in the National Championship Game after the Round of 32 upset.

The difference is that Kentucky was the more talented team then, and they are clearly the more talented team again in 2017.  The Wildcats will run them out of the gym once again.  They have won 12 straight coming in and are clearly hitting their stride.

Wichita State usually has an advantage inside against every opponent it faces, but that won't be the case here.  Edrice Edebayo is one of the most dominant big men in the country, averaging 13.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game.  He has only gotten better as the season has gone on and is filling his full potential down the stretch.

Wichita State benefited from an extremely easy schedule this season, but it hasn't done well when stepping up in class.  The Shockers are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their four games against Louisville (52-62, L), Michigan State (72-77, L), Oklahoma State (76-93, L) and Dayton (64-58, W), which are the four best teams they have faced this season.  And they were fortunate to beat Dayton Friday.

The Shockers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a neutral court dog of 6 points or less or PK.  The Shockers are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  This is more of a mismatch than this 4-point spread indicates as I expect the Wildcats to dominate from the outset.  Roll with Kentucky Sunday.

20* Michigan/Louisville Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now.  Everyone was on them against Oklahoma State in the first round, and they were fortunate to win that game 92-91, but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Now I can't help but think the Wolverines are out of gas.  They played four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament, and then played one of the most entertaining, up-tempo games of the opening round with their 183-point tussle with the Cowboys.

Now the Wolverines will be up against a Louisville team that forces you to expend a ton of energy trying to beat their press.  And with only one day to prepare for the Cardinals, that won't be enough.  Derrick Walton Jr. is having a tremendous run at the PG position, but he'll be in over his head in trying to beat this Louisville press Sunday.

The Cardinals are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  Louisville is 11-4 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  The Cardinals are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten opponents.  Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. ACC foes.  Take Louisville Sunday.

25* West Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are a legitimate national title contender this season.  They were the best team in the Pac-12 in the regular and postseasons, and they are clearly one of the best teams in the tournament.  Now they're only laying 5 points in the Round of 32 against St. Mary's, and I expect this to be a blowout in the Wildcats' favor.

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the tournament.  They had an extremely easy schedule outside of Gonzaga, and we saw what happened when they took a step up in class and faced the Bulldogs three times this year.  They lost by 23 at Gonzaga, by 10 at home, and by 18 in the WCC Championship.  Arizona is similar to Gonzaga in build and talent, if not better.

Arizona is 7-0 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread this season.  St. Mary's is 0-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% after 15 or more games ove r the last three seasons.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.  The Wildcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -4

Off back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Utah, the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight against Toronto.  The Pistons are currently tied for the 8th seed in the East and can't afford to lose at home.

Detroit has been a solid home team all season, going 22-13 SU & 21-14 ATS on the year.  The Pistons are 36-18 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

The Toronto Raptors have been a mess since Kyle Lowry went down with an injury.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just lost to Oklahoma City 102-123 at home last night, so they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well.

Toronto is 7-23 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Raptors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

20* Seton Hall/Arkansas South Region No-Brainer on Seton Hall +1

The Seton Hall Pirates certainly know how to finish.  They won the Big East Tournament last year with an upset over Villanova that they needed just to get into the NCAA Tournament.  And this year, they were on the bubble in late-February before going 5-1 over their final six games.

The last three games have been the most impressive and show what the Pirates are capable of.  They won at Butler 70-64 as 8.5-point dogs, beat Marquette 82-76 as 1.5-point dogs in their first game of the Big East Tournament, then gave Villanova all they wanted in a 53-55 loss at 11.5-point dogs.

I think the loss to Villanova was a good thing because it showed they could play with one of the best teams in the country, but it also gave them some extra rest coming into the tournament having last played on Friday, March 10th.  And the Pirates have one of the best trios in the country in Khadeem Carrington (16.9 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Angel Delgado (15.3 ppg, 13.1 rpg) that can lead them on a run in the NCAA Tournament.
 
Arkansas improved quite a bit this season under Mike Anderson and finished strong.  They made it all the way to the SEC Championship Game.  There they were overmatched in a 65-82 loss to Kentucky.  And I think that run took a lot out of them as they had to play on Sunday, March 12th, which means the Pirates have had two more days off than them.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 9-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less over the past two seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.  Seton Hall is 40-19 ATS in its last 59 games as a dog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. Big East opponents.  Bet Seton Hall Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +12.5

The Baylor Bears peaked in late-January, but they have just been a mediocre team since.  They are just 5-6 SU & 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  This is a team that has struggled in the NCAA Tournament the past few years, and they certainly aren't trending in the right direction this year, either.

New Mexico State (28-5) is a live underdog.  The Aggies only suffered five losses all season, and four of them came by 13 points or fewer.  They were competitive in non-conference road losses at Colorado State and New Mexico, two of the best teams in the Mountain West.  They won at UTEP 79-68 and at Arizona State 81-80 as well.

Baylor likes to overwhelm teams with its size, but the Aggies won't be overwhelmed here.  They have two solid big men in Eli Chuha (12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) and Jemerrio Jones (9.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg).  They also have two outstanding guards in Ian Baker (16.6 ppg, 4.1 apg) and Braxton Huggins (13.6 ppg, 42.2% 3-pointers).  These four can lead the upset.

Baylor is 1-8 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs WAC opponents.  Baylor is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite.  Roll with New Mexico State Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma State +2.5

The Michigan Wolverines are the 'flavor of the week' right now after winning the Big Ten Tournament.  They suffered a near-death experience when their plane came to a halt on the runway before they were getting ready to take off for the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan got on a different flight and showed up just hours before their game against Illinois.  They used that near-death experience to their advantage and played their best basketball of the season, winning four games in four days.  But I think that run took a lot out of them as they played on Sunday.  And they won't be playing with that same intensity in the NCAA Tournament because they won't have much gas left in the tank.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State last played on Thursday in a loss to Iowa State.  So the Cowboys have had extra time to prepare and will be the fresher team.  They are getting overlooked now after losing each of their final three games of the season by single-digits to Iowa State (twice) and Kansas. 

But this is a team that had gone 10-1 in its previous 11 games.  And they have been the most efficient offensive team in the country since January 21st. Most think it's UCLA, but it's actually Oklahoma State.  Not to mention, according to KenPom, the Cowboys have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country this season.

Oklahoma State has won some impressive road games this season.  It won at Wichita State 93-76), at Texas Tech 83-64, at West Virginia 82-75, at TCU 71-68 and at Kansas State 80-68.  This team certainly isn't afraid to go on the road and give a big effort as they went 9-7 SU & 11-5 ATS in all road games this season.

Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS in road games versus excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons.  The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.  Take Oklahoma State Friday.