Winning Sports Picks

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs PK 

The San Antonio Spurs had their four-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 93-98 home loss to the Bulls last time out.  Look for them to respond in a big way here against the Philadelphia 76ers and continue their success at home, where they are 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS on the season. 

The Spurs catch the Philadelphia 76ers in a very tough spot here tonight.  The 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning in Cleveland last night.  It's a long flight to San Antonio, and I don’t think the 76ers will have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Spurs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers overall.  The Spurs are 19-2 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the 76ers.  The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of .600 or better.  The Spurs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

San Antonio is 16-4 ATS in December home games over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 14-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +13 

The Chicago Bulls have been more competitive since Jim Boylan took over as head coach.  They have gone 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games with an outright upset at San Antonio as 9-point dogs and an outright upset over Oklahoma City at home as 8-point dogs. 

Now, the Bulls are catching 13 points here on the road in the rematch with the Thunder, and it’s simply too much.  That’s especially the case when you consider the Bulls have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks.  They’ve gotten Lauri Markkanen (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Kris Dunn (11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG) and Bobby Portis (10.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG) back from injury.  This team now has more depth than they’ve had all season. 

The Thunder moved into first place in the Western Conference recently, and have been overvalued since.  They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  And once again they are laying too many points here against the Bulls as massive 13-point favorites. 

The Bulls have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS with three outright upsets.  Oklahoma City is just 9-26 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Worse yet, the Thunder are 3-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last two years.  Roll with the Bulls Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12 

The love for the Indiana Pacers is starting to get out of hand here Sunday.  They are 12-point favorites over the New York Knicks.  Well, the Pacers have only been favored by more than 8 points once all season.  That was as 11.5-point home favorites over the Hawks, and the Pacers failed to cover in an 8-point win. 

The reason the Pacers are getting so much love right now is because they have won six in a row coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process.  They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bucks and 76ers as well.  If anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Knicks.  It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers today. 

Conversely, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks.  They have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they had a nice 126-124 (OT) road win over the Hornets last time out where they showed a ton of heart in coming back from a big deficit.  And the Knicks certainly want revenge from a 101-107 home loss to the Pacers in their first and only meeting this season.  I like them quite a bit here catching 12 points on the road in the rematch. 

Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same season loss, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  New York will put up more of a fight than this line suggests tonight.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -6.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers should roll the Rhode Island Rams today at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut.  They are the more talented, more experienced team and this is really a shorter number than it should be Sunday afternoon. 

The Mountaineers returned four players who averaged at least 8.7 points per game from last year’s team.  And I think they are being undervalued right now because they already have three losses on the season against a difficult schedule.  But they also have wins by 7 points or more against St. Joe’s, Valpo and Pitt, and they are playing a lot better since a slow start.  They’ve gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming as dogs to Florida on a neutral. 

Rhode Island is clearly a rebuilding team.  Dan Hurley bolted for greener pastures in the offseason, and it’s no surprise he left when he did because the Rams lost a ton of talent.  They only have one returning starter, and lose five players who combined to average 53.6 points per game last year.  That’s a lot of production gone.  They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team that went 26-8. 

The early struggles during a 4-3 start for the Rams are not surprising.  Their four wins have come against Bryant, Harvard (by 2), Brown and Holy Cross with three of those at home.  They lost by 11 at Charleston as 2.5-point dogs, were upset at home by Stony Brook by 10 despite being 10.5-point favorites, and lost by 9 at Providence as 7-point dogs.  So they’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and yet at just 4-3. 

West Virginia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Mountaineers are once again a tremendous rebounding team, which is the one thing the Rams do well.  Rhode Island has terrible guard play as they are shooting just 39.9% from the field and 20.3% from 3-point range on the season.  That’s not going to cut it in today’s college basketball.  The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Roll with West Virginia Sunday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have really been playing some great basketball.  It was always going to take them some time to gel with Lebron James and all the new faces, but they’ve certainly gelled now.  The Lakers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games overall coming in. 

And I like backing the Lakers off their tough loss to Houston on Thursday.  They have been really good following a loss, going 5-1 SU in their last six games off a loss.  And the Lakers are rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  They should be primed for a big effort here. 

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot.  They played an overtime game against the Knicks last night and lost 124-126.  That had to take a lot out of them.  They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  And all five starters played at least 36 minutes last night. 

Charlotte is 6-19 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past three seasons.  Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years.  The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the lsat 22 meetings.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Charlotte.  Bet the Lakers Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +9 

Wichita State is clearly in rebuilding mode.  The Shockers only returned one starter this season and lost almost every key player from last year’s team that went 25-8.  The only key returnee is SF Markis McDuffie, who is the top returning scorer at only 8.3 PPG. 

It’s no wonder the Shockers are off to a shaky 5-4 start this season.  They lost by 13 at home to LA Tech as 9-point favorites, and they only beat Jacksonville State by 4 last time out at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They have only had two days to get ready for Southern Miss. 

This is a Southern Miss team on the rise.  The Golden Eagles are in their best shape since being hit with a three-year probation from former coach Donnie Tyndall’s tenure.  Fifth-year coach Doc Sadler returns a very experienced team, including four senior starting guards from last year.  Tyree Griffin (15.0 PPG, 5.9 APG last year), Cortez Edwards (16.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Dominic Magee (11.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Kevin Holland (6.8 PPG) all returned.  That’s a lot of production. 

The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season.  And their two most impressive performances came in their only two true road games.  They won outright 74-64 at SMU as 9.5-point underdogs, and 81-66 at Troy as 1.5-point dogs.  They certainly won’t be losing by double-digits on the road to this rebuilding Wichita State team tonight. 

Wichita State is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Southern Miss) - in a game involving two up-tempo teams who average 60 or more shots per game, after two straight games where they allowed their opponents to shoot 37% or less are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday. 

15* Penn State/NC State ESPNU No-Brainer on NC State -4 

NC State is loaded this season.  The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett.  They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year. 

The Wolfpack are off to an 8-1 start this season with heir only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs.  They have been undervalued all season as they are 7-2 ATS.  Dorn (16.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 47.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 48.6% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers. 

Penn State clearly came into the season overvalued.  The Nittany Lions are just 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in their nine games this season.  Their five wins have come against North Florida, Jacksonville State, Wright State, VA Tech (at home by 1) and Colgate.  They already have upset losses to DePaul, Bradley and Indiana, and they failed to cover in a loss at Maryland.  This team just isn’t very good. 

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game.  The Wolfpack are scoring 88.9 PPG this season, which is 15.9 per game more than their opponents give up on average.  They are also holding teams to 62 PPG, which is 6 points less than their opponents average.  This team is a lot better than they’re getting credit for as only 4-point favorites here, and that will show on the court this afternoon.  Take NC State Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +7 

I love the spot for Rutgers today.  They are coming off three consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory.  Well, an 11-point loss to Michigan State and a 5-point road loss to Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs aren’t bad losses.  The upset loss at Fordham was, but it was understandable given they stepped out of conference following those losses to MSU and Wisconsin. 

Look for the Scarlet Knights to be refocused and ready to go tonight.  This is a team that got off to a 5-1 start, which includes a 57-54 win at Miami as 11-point dogs.  And their only loss was as dogs to St. John’s up to that point.  So they have been through the gauntlet, playing one of the most difficult schedules in the country to this point.  They won’t be phased at all by this road game at Seton Hall as it will already be their fourth true road game of the season. 

I also love the spot fading Seton Hall.  They are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, an 84-83 win over Kentucky on a neutral last time out.  After beating the Wildcats, who are down this season, they certainly won’t be nearly as motivated to face Rutgers tonight.  This is a Seton Hall team that lost by 23 to Nebraska, was upset by St. Louis at home, and upset by Louisville at home.  Rutgers will have a chance to pull the upset today, too. 

Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  It’s a Pirates team that lost their four best players from last year, and one that is being overvalued now off that win over Kentucky.  The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The road team is 20-6 ATSi n the last 26 meetings.  The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Seton Hall.  Bet Rutgers Saturday. 

15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +4 

The Toronto Raptors are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors.  They were 8-point dogs to the Warriors, and now they are 4-point favorites at the Blazers.  And they’re certainly in a huge letdown spot off that big win over the Warriors. 

Toronto has some serious injury concerns moving forward.  Kawhi Leonard has been sitting out with a hip injury and is questionable to return tonight.  They haven’t needed him, so I’m not concerned whether he plays or not.  But they just lost Jonas Valanciunas for the next four-to-six weeks with a thumb injury in that win over the Warriors.  He provides much-needed toughness inside, and they’re going to miss him more than what will get factored into the point spread moving forward. 

Portland comes in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Houston and Memphis.  The Blazers had their chances late in both of those games, but finished poorly.  Now they return home, and this team has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA.  They have a tremendous home-court advantage, going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring their opponents by 8.6 points per game in Portland. 

Plays on underdogs (Portland) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 home games.  The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Toronto.  Roll with the Blazers Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  I like backing teams who are playing with quick revenge after a recent loss to their opponent.  The Cavs lost 92-108 at Milwaukee as 10-point dogs on Monday, December 10th, and now they are 10.5-point dogs at home in the rematch.  There’s clearly some value here. 

The Cavs are playing very well at home of late.  They beat the Wizards 116-101 outright as 7.5-point dogs, and then the Knicks 113-106 outright as 1.5-point dogs in their last two home games.  And this is a team that is getting healthier with several guys recently returning from injury.  The addition of Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks is also paying dividends as he’s playing big, important minutes and has been a nice role model for rookie sensation Collin Sexton. 

While the Cavs will be highly motivated for revenge on Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a hard time getting up for this game considering they just beat the Cavs by 16 four days ago.  And the Bucks have been a bad bet on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS while only outscoring their opponents by 2.2 points per game on average.  The Cavs are only getting beat by 4.4 points per game at home this year. 

Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games dating back to last season.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets are having some fun right now.  I’ve watched this team a lot this season and have been impressed with what I’ve seen, especially of late.  They had lost eight straight games, including back-to-back heartbreaking 2-point losses to close out the streak.  But they didn’t give in. 

Since those two 2-point losses, the Nets have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Raptors 106-105 (OT) at home and celebrated like they won the NBA title.  It was fun to see, and this team has just kept on rolling since.  They went on the road and beat the Knicks 112-104 as 2-point dogs, and then upset the 76ers 127-124 as 6-point dogs.  And this is a fresh team right now as the Nets will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

The Wizards just can’t be trusted.  They have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season at 11-17.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites, by 8 at Indiana as 6-point dogs, and then in OT 125-130 to Boston at home as 3.5-point dogs.  And after playing the Celtics, they certainly won’t get up to face the Nets and this is a ‘hangover’ spot for them.  It’s also a sandwich spot with the Lakers on deck. 

The Nets have had the Wizards’ number in recent meetings, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  In their last two home meetings with the Wizards, the Nets won 119-84 and 103-98, both times winning outright as underdogs.  And they should have no problem covering this short 1.5-point spread at home here tonight.  John Wall is hobbled by an ankle injury and left last game, while Otto Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury after sitting out last game. 

Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season.  It is losing by a whopping 17.7 points per game on average in this spot.  On the season, the Wizards are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game.  Dating back further, the Wizards are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Washington.  Bet the Nets Friday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs have been a great home team this season.  They are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year.  I like them here quite a bit laying this short number to the Los Angeles Clippers, who have finally come back down to reality here of late. 

The Clippers were the No. 1 team in the West just a short few weeks ago, but they’ve hit a wall.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their only win came 123-119 (OT) against the Phoenix Suns, who are far and away the worst team in the West.  The three losses came by 10, 23 and 24 points. 

A big reason the Clippers are going to continue to struggle in the short-term is the loss of Lou Williams (17.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) to a hamstring injury.  He isn’t someone who affects the point spread, but he should.  He is the best 6th man in the league and provides a huge scoring punch for the Clippers’ bench.  Without Williams, the Clippers no longer have the bench advantage they’ve had all season. 

The Spurs are 36-10 SU in their last 46 home meetings with the Clippers.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Spurs winning by 18 and 13 points in their last two home meetings with the Clippers.  The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 

San Antonio also wants revenge from a 111-116 road loss to the Clippers in their lone meeting this season on November 15th.  Well, the Spurs are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  Take the Spurs Thursday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  The Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, and they continue to be here.  They are 14-12 SU & 16-10 ATS in all games this season. 

The Kings have really turned it on of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, with three of those wins all coming by 17 points or more.  It’s even more impressive when you consider that four of those five games were on the road. 

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here.  They are coming off two straight road games against the Blazers and Warriors.  And after losing to the Warriors on Monday, there’s no way they’ll be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight as they were the defending champs.  Minnesota is just 2-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game.  That’s why they can’t be favored here. 

Minnesota is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  They are losing by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot.  Sacramento is 12-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Timberwolves ar e12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games.  The Kings are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days’ rest. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Kings Wednesday.

20* LSU/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5 

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have opened 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS through their first eight games, outscoring the opposition by 17.7 points per game on average.  They play elite defense, giving up just 57.7 points and 37.8% shooting to their opponents. 

And it’s not like Houston is beating up on a bunch of cupcakes, either.  They won 76-62 at BYU as 2-point underdogs.  They beat Oregon 65-61 as 3.5-point home favorites.  And they won 63-53 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point underdogs. 

That Oklahoma State result is important because it pertains to this game.  LSU is 7-2, but one of its losses came to Oklahoma State 77-90 on a neutral despite being 5.5-point favorites.  So that’s the common opponent between these teams, and Houston won by 10 on the road, while LSU lost by 13 on a neutral. 

And LSU has beaten up on a lot of cupcakes as they also lost to Florida State, while their seven wins all came against suspect competition as 8.5-point favorites or more.  In fact, this will be the first true road game of the season for the Tigers, which is always a precarious spot, especially up against a Top 25 team like Houston with a great home-court advantage. 

LSU is 3-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Cougars are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Houston is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Bet Houston Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -5.5 

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have handled their business at home, going 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 7.5 points per game.  And they’re fully healthy in this one while also coming in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go.  It’s also just their 4th game in 10 days. 

Detroit is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  All five losses have come by 6 points or more, and I think you can chalk up a 6th straight loss by at least 6 points for them here.  The Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 8th game in 13 days.  They are a tired team right now. 

That fatigue has led to some injuries lately that are really holding the Pistons back.  They are without Reggie Bullock (10.1 PPG) and Ish Smith (9.2 PPG), and Stanley Johnson (9.8 PPG) is banged up and questionable with a knee injury.  All three are among their top six scorers this season, so they are very short on depth right now. 

The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pistons, winning all three by 10 points or more and by an average of 12.3 points per game.  Charlotte is 10-2 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season.  The Pistons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons.  The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Hornets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +7 

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Jimmy Butler, who suffered a groin injury last time out and will miss this game.  After trading away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Butler, and with Markelle Fultz out with a shoulder injury, the 76ers are really short on talent and depth right now. 

The Nets suffered two straight crushing losses to Cleveland (by 2) and Oklahoma City (by 2) to start the month of December.  But they have rallied since, upsetting the Raptors 106-105 as 8.5-point home underdogs.  Then they went on the road the next night and beat the Knicks 112-104.  Now, the Nets are working on three days’ rest having last played on Saturday, so they are primed for a big effort. 

The first two meetings this season show that the Nets have the 76ers’ number.  The Nets won 122-97 as 4-point home underdogs in their first meeting.  Then they let the 76ers off the hook in the 2nd meeting, blowing a 68-54 halftime lead and losing 125-127 as 4.5-point home dogs, so they covered.  And now they’re catching 7 points here in the 3rd meeting and out for revenge for that blown lead, plus they’re rested and up against a depleted 76ers squad. 

Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 17-6 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall when playing on three days’ rest or more.  Brooklyn is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Bet the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -12.5 

The San Antonio Spurs are 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off back-to-back home wins over the Lakers (133-120) and Jazz (110-97) by 13 points apiece.  And they should have no problem winning by 13 points or more to cover this 12.5-point spread against the Phoenix Suns tonight. 

The Suns are in an awful spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-123 (OT) loss to the Clippers last night.  I always like looking to fade teams on a back-to-back, especially when they’re coming off an OT game.  This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for Phoenix.  The Spurs had yesterday off. 

The Suns are without Devin Booker right now, which is a big reason they are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses have come by double-digits, so they’re used to losing by these margins.  They are 1-12 SU & 3-10 ATS on the road this season, losing by 15.2 points per game on average. 

The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Suns.  Their last six home wins have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 19.2 points per game.  San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  After losing in Phoenix in their last meeting this season, the Spurs won’t be taking the Suns lightly tonight.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday. 

15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset both the Pelicans and Jazz at home, and throttled the Suns by 17 and the Clippers by 23 on the road. 

The spot is a good one for the Heat tonight.  They didn’t have to travel as they played in Los Angeles on Saturday.  They probably went out Saturday night and had Sunday to recover.  And now they’ll be looking forward to the opportunity of trying to pull the Staples Center sweep tonight.  Plus, they get Goran Dragic back from injury, and they are getting healthy and becoming a very dangerous team because of it. 

The Lakers are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They have won five of their last six while going 4-1-1 ATS in the process.  But it has mostly been against an easy schedule.  And while the Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here, the Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 7 days. 

Miami is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Los Angeles is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games. 

Plays against home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Lakers will be without two key players in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo tonight as well.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2 

It’s no surprise that the Denver Nuggets have lost two straight games to the Hornets and Hawks coming into this game.  For starters, they just played five straight road games.  And now they’re in their first game back home after being on the road for 10 days.  I always like fading teams in this spot. 

The Nuggets will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days here.  And their injury situation is the biggest reason I’m fading them tonight.  They are without Gary Harris (16.6 PPG), Will Barton (16.5 PPG) and Paul Millsap (13.6 PPG), who are three of their top five scores.  And they may also be without leading scorer Jamal Murray (17.4 PPG), who suffered a shin injury in their loss to the Hawks on Saturday and is questionable tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are fully healthy right now with both Mike Conley and Garrett Temple expected to play.  And at full strength and up against a depleted Nuggets squad, the Grizzlies should be favored in this game even though it’s on the road. 

Memphis is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home game this season.  The Grizzlies are 34-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons, so they are in the same situation as the Nuggets, but it doesn’t seem to phase them.  Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes.  Take the Grizzlies Monday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5 

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They come in on two days’ rest and off a bad upset loss at Chicago as 8.5-point favorites.  So they’ll be fresh and ready to go, plus they’ll be highly motivated for a win off that Chicago loss. 

Adding to Oklahoma City’s motivation tonight is the fact that Utah bounced them from the playoffs last year. Paul George had one of the worst games of his career in their 96-91 loss at Utah in Game 6.  He and Russell Westbrook will be looking to make amends.  In fact, I don’t think the Thunder will be more motivated for any other game in the regular season than this one. 

Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 97-110 loss in San Antonio last night.  So you have a team playing for a second consecutive day up against a team with two days’ rest.  The Thunder have a huge scheduling advantage in this one to say the least. 

The Thunder are 9-3 at home this season and winning by 8.7 points per game on average.  The Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on zero rest.  Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games.  The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.  The Thunder are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Jazz.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +4 

The revenge tour of the San Antonio Spurs continues tonight.  They avenged a 113-121 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday with a 133-120 home win over the Lakers on Friday.  And now they’ll be looking to avenge their 105-139 road loss to the Jazz on Tuesday when they get to host Utah this time around. 

San Antonio has gone 71-22 SU in its last 93 home meetings with Utah.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  I don’t think the Spurs should be home dogs tonight, let alone 4-point home dogs. 

The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season.  San Antonio is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -5 

The Raptors are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Nets last time out.  That should have them refocused and ready to go at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They’ll also want revenge from a 109-124 loss at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. 

No team is as equipped to stop Giannis and the Bucks quite like Toronto.  Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the NBA, and he’ll relish the challenge to top Giannis tonight.  I expect a big effort from the Raptors here. 

The Bucks have done most of their damage at home thanks to a home-heavy schedule with 15 home games compared to just 9 road games.  And the Bucks are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. 

Toronto is 14-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

20* Purdue/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +2.5

It’s safe to say the Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened 5-0 with wins against Arkansas and North Carolina, but not they’ve lost three straight to Michigan State, Redford and VCU.  They want to get back in the win column here tonight in a bad way. 

Purdue is coming off a 62-60 home win as 9-point favorites over Maryland.  Now they step out of conference here.  They only have two days’ rest after playing on Thursday, while Texas has three days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday. 

While Texas has four returning starters, Purdue has just one returning starter and has been grossly overvalued this season.  The Boilermakers also have three losses this year, and they are 0-2 in true road games losing to Michigan and Florida State by an average of 10 points per game. 

The Boilermakers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Purdue is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a home dog of 3 points or less or PK.  Bet Texas Sunday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Grand Canyon +11

Nevada (9-0) is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after its unbeaten start and No. 6 ranking.  Now the Wolf Pack are being asked to lay double-digits in what is essentially a home game for Grand Canyon at Talking Stick Resort in Phoenix. 

Dan Majerle is doing big things at Grand Canyon, and it helps that they have some of the best facilities and weather in the country, which has helped him get recruits.  Grand Canyon is 5-3 this season with all three losses coming by 9 points or less, and they were all on the road to the likes of Utah, Seton Hall and South Dakota State. 

But what I really like about this game is the fact that Grand Canyon is rested with seven days in between games having last played on December 1st.  Nevada just played on Friday, December 7th in a hard-fought 72-66 win over Arizona State in Los Angeles.  So the Wolf Pack only have one day to prepare for Grand Canyon.   

That’s a huge scheduling advantage for the Antelopes here.  The Antelopes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Wolf Pack are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that will show tonight as the Antelopes give them a run for their money.  Take Grand Canyon Sunday. 

20* T’Wolves/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Portland Trail Blazers.  They have lost six of their last eight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The betting public doesn’t want anything to do with them, and these are just the types of teams I’m looking to back. 

The Blazers are coming off a 22-point win over the Suns, though, and now they get star guard CJ McCollum back from injury tonight.  They are 100% healthy and should make easy work of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are getting way too much respect from the books right now. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Timberwolves, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  But those six wins have come against six teams with losing records, so they have simply feasted on an easy schedule.  The only good team they played during this stretch was Boston, and they lost at home. 

The Timberwolves are just 2-8 on the road this season, losing by 7.1 points per game.  The Blazers are 9-4  at home and winning by 8.6 points per game.  Portland is 37-10 SU in its last 47 home meetings with Minnesota, including 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings.  The home team is 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings. 

The Blazers are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 meetings with the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering three of its last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  Portland is 9-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over the last two years.  The Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games.  Bet the Blazers Saturday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2 

Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are in tough spots tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  However, the Grizzlies have had more rest over the last few weeks, so they are the preferred side here.  The Grizzlies will be playing their 5th game in 11 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 6th game in 10 days. 

The Lakers have been pretty dreadful on the road this season at 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  They lost by 13 to the Spurs last night and by 32 to the Nuggets in their last two road games.  Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season.  And they basically just have to win this game to cover the spread. 

Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they are playing without two key players right now in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo.  Given this tough rest situation, their lack of depth to make up for those two key losses is huge.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies tonight.  The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when their Starting 5 combines for more than 160 minutes played the previous day. 

Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS vs. good ball-handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Lakers are 4-13 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the past two seasons.  Memphis is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three years.  The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2.5 

There are so many factors favoring the Knicks to win and cover tonight against the Brooklyn Nets.  I’ll gladly lay the short number with them here at home in a game they should win in blowout fashion. 

The Knicks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 4th game in 10 days tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  This is a tired, vulnerable Nets team right now, especially after going into overtime last night.

The Nets are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall.  But they did upset the Raptors 106-105 at home last night.  However, that works against them now because it’s a letdown spot after beating the team with the best record in the NBA.  They won’t get up for the Knicks nearly as much as they were up for the Raptors last night, and they certainly won’t have much left in the tank for the Knicks. 

The Knicks own the Nets, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  They won by 19 at home earlier this season, and by 16 in their final home meeting last season.  They also won by 21 in their first home meetings last season.  Each of their last five wins in this series have come by 7 points or more, including four by double-digits. 

Brooklyn is 0-7 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  It is losing by 8.4 points per game on average in this spot.  The Nets are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when playing on zero rest.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with Brooklyn. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3 

What more do the Dallas Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here?  Until they do, I’ll keep backing them as home underdogs tonight against the Houston Rockets, who have no business being favored with the way they are playing right now. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.  They have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Celtics, Clippers and Blazers at home during this stretch, so it’s not like they are feasting on weak competition.  And now the Mavericks have two days’ rest to get ready for the Rockets after last playing on Wednesday. 

The Rockets are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are coming off a 27-point loss to the Jazz, which is their fourth loss by at least 9 points during this stretch.  One of those was at home against the Mavericks on November 28th as the Mavs won 128-108 as 5.5-point dogs, covering the spread by 25.5 points. 

The Mavs are 7-0 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven when heir opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  And add in that the Mavericks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games, and we have a combined 29-0 system backing Dallas in this one.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Chicago +9.5 

Loyola-Chicago went 32-6 last season and made a surprising run to the Final Four.  And they brought back three starters from that teams in MVC Player of the Year Clayton Custer (13.2 PPG, 45.1% 3-Pointers Last Year), Marques Townes (11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and Cameron Krutwig (10.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG).  They’re loaded again. 

However, it’s understandable Loyola-Chicago came into this season overvalued after making the Final Four.  They have gone a disappointing 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS this season, and now the betting public is off of them.  I think this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Rambles Saturday. 

The Ramblers were favored in 8 of their first 9 games, but now they are in their biggest underdog role of the season here as 9.5-point dogs against Maryland.  And this is a great spot for them.  While they’ve had two days’ rest coming in, Maryland is in a very difficult travel spot. 

Indeed, the Terrapons lost 60-62 at Purdue on Thursday, so they only have one day to get ready for Loyola.  And they step back out of conference here off three straight difficult games against Virginia, Penn State and Purdue.  I just see this as a ‘hangover’ spot off that loss to Purdue, and certainly the Terrapins could be running out of gas by now. 

Loyola is a perfect 8-0 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  This isn’t a true home game for Maryland, and the Rambles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.  The Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* Georgetown/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Georgetown +10.5 

The Georgetown Hoyas are getting zero respect from oddsmakers here as 10.5-point road underdogs to the Syracuse Orange.  I think this is too many points, and it has shown in recent years in this rivalry that home-court advantage means nothing. 

Georgetown (7-1) has already gone on the road and beaten Illinois 88-80 as 9-point underdogs in their only true road game this season, but they’ve also played a couple neutral court affairs.  And they have an extra day of rest and preparation here after last playing on December 3rd, while Syracuse last played on December 4th. 

Syracuse already has bad upset losses to UConn by 7 as 7.5-point favorites and Oregon by 15 as 2-point favorites, both on a neutral court.  Their six wins have all come against suspect competition as favorites of 12.5 or more points, outside of their upset win over Ohio State, which was an aberration. 

Series history really favors Georgetown here.  The Hoyas are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Orange.  All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of those came in overtime.  In fact, Georgetown hasn’t lost by more than 7 points to Syracuse in any of the last 11 meetings.  That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hoyas pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Take Georgetown Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9 

I think the Bulls are a ‘bet on’ team in the immediate future right now.  That’s because they fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and getting a new voice will be good for them as veteran assistant Jim Boylen has taken over the reigns.  I cashed in the Bulls +8.5 against the Pacers on Wednesday, and I’m back on them again tonight. 

I don’t think Hoiberg got a fair shake, but he clearly wasn’t getting through to his players.  And now Boylen takes over just in time for their best player in Lauri Markkanen returning from injury.  This will be his third game back from injury after missing the first 23 games of the season.  And the Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here. 

Oklahoma City will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here.  The Thunder erased an 88-65 deficit to beat the Nets 114-112 as 6-point road favorites on Wednesday thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Paul George.  I think the Thunder are way overvalued right now, and this is definitely a ‘hangover’ spot for them off that huge comeback win. 

Oklahoma City is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 games following a road win by 3 points or less.  Chicago is 14-3 ATS in December games over the last two seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive losses are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Bulls Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 

The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They sit at 12-11 on the season and will win their third straight game here against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.  I love the spot for the Kings as they are rested and ready to go, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight.  It will also be just their 4th game in 12 days. 

The Cavaliers are a tired team right now, which has contributed to their 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS record in their last six games overall.  They will be playing their 9th game in 15 days.  They are coming off a 105-129 home loss to the Warriors, and that makes this a ‘hangover’ spot for them after playing the defending champs. 

The Cavs are decimated by injuries right now.  Kevin Love, Sam Dekker, JR Smith and David Nwaba are all out.  Plus, they traded Kyle Korver to the Jazz.  These injuries have taken their toll, especially since the Cavaliers were already short on talent coming into the season.  And their lack of depth is really catching up to them now. 

Sacramento is 10-1 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season.  Cleveland is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last three years.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Cleveland.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Kings Friday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1 

The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much love for going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They’re now road favorites over the Hornets tonight and they shouldn’t be.  I think this is a great spot to fade the Nuggets, who will be playing their 4th straight road games and are coming off an overtime win over the Magic.  Four of their seven wins during this streak have either come by 3 points or less or in OT. 

I love the spot for the Hornets.  They’ll be highly motivated for a win off three straight losses to Utah, New Orleans and Minnesota.  And they will be rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They are primed for one of their best efforts of the season.  Plus, the Nuggets will be without leading scorer Gary Harris tonight, and his absence is a big one. 

The Hornets have had the Nuggets’ number in recent seasons.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings.  They won 110-93 as 2-point home underdogs last year, and 122-114 at home the season prior.  The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Charlotte. 

Plays on underdogs (Charlotte) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games on the season.  Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six Friday games.  Bet the Hornets Friday.  

20* Rockets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2 

The Utah Jazz were knocked out of the playoffs by the Houston Rockets last year.  Their revenge tour doesn’t stop just because they won 100-89 in Houston earlier this season.  They want to kick the Rockets while they’re down and win at home here tonight as mere 2-point home favorites. 

This is a Rockets team that’s really struggling right now.  They have gone just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They’ve lost to the likes of the Pistons, Cavs, Wizards, Mavericks and Timberwolves.  Their only wins came against the Bulls and struggling Spurs. 

The Jazz are playing better now that their best player in Donovan Mitchell is healthy.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming on the road by two points.  Their three wins came by a total of 52 points, or by an average of 17.3 points per game. 

The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Quin Snyder is 37-19 ATS when playing against a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games as the coach of Utah.  Bet the Jazz Thursday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5 

The No. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers just got ranked in the Top 25 this week for the first time since 2014.  I always love fading teams who jump into the Top 25 in all college sports when they aren’t used to being there.  It’s a distraction, and it’s a sense of validation that makes them come out feeling a little too good about themselves, and not playing with the chip they had on their shoulder previously. 

And this is a Minnesota team that I really like this season.  The Golden Gophers returned five starters this year and are off to a 6-2 start this season.  Their only two losses came in their only two true road games to Ohio State and Boston College. 

Nebraska has feasted on a pretty weak schedule thus far playing just one true road game, which was a 2-point win at Clemson.  They lost to Texas Tech by 18 on a neutral in their other tough game.  This will be their toughest game yet here against a Minnesota team that is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game. 

The Huskers are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers because they are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.  But the value has been zapped, especially with their Top 25 ranking now, and that’s evident by the fact that they’re actually road favorites here against a quality Minnesota squad.  They shouldn’t be favored in this matchup.  The Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Huskers.  Bet Minnesota Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -2 

The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of their last five games coming in.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, so they were competitive in every game.  But I really like this game because of a couple other factors as well, including rest and revenge. 

The Grizzlies are clearly the more rested team.  They will be playing on two days’ rest having last played on Sunday.  Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in 8 days.  Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game. 

The Grizzlies want revenge from their 107-112 (OT) loss at the Clippers on November 23rd less than two weeks ago.  Since that game is fresh in their minds, revenge is a factor.  And given their rest advantage, they should be able to win at home this time around after losing in OT on the road in the last matchup.  Keep in mind the Clippers were coming in on two days’ rest prior to that win as well. 

The Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days’ rest.  Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Illinois -2 

I really like this Southern Illinois team, and I think they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over Saint Louis tonight.  It’s an SIU team that returned all five starters from a team that won 20 games last year.  They will challenge Loyola for the MVC title this season. 

The Salukis returned more returning scoring options than any other team in the league.  Senior guard Armon Fletcher (14.1 PPG last year), senior center Kevin Pippen (12.1 PPG), senior guard Sean Lloyd (12.1 PPG) and junior guard Aaron Cook (9.8 PPG) are all back.  Plus, they get the return of forward This Bol (9.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG in 2016-17), who missed all of last season with a knee injury. 

The Salukis are playing team basketball this season as they have five players averaging double-digits scoring with those four returning starters plus Eric McGill (10.8 PPG, 47.1% 3-pointers).  Four of their top six scorers all shoot 43% or better from 3-point range, including three that shoot 47% or better. 

Southern Illinois is 5-3 this season, but they’ve played a brutal schedule with five of their eight games on the road.  Two of those losses came to Kentucky and Mass on the road, and the other was a home loss to a very good Buffalo team as dogs.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 10 on a neutral to Tulsa, by 15 at Colorado State outright as underdogs, and by 21 as 10-point favorites at SIU-Edwardsville. 

Saint Louis is getting a lot of respect for its 6-1 start this season.  But it has come against a very soft schedule with five of those seven as home games.  The two road games resulted in a 2-point win against a rebuilding Seton Hall team, and a loss to Pittsburgh on a neutral.  The home win over Butler last time out was impressive, but it also sets the Billikens up for a big letdown spot here. 

Saint Louis is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 December road games.  Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Billikens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Saint Louis is 17-35-1 ATS in its last 53 non-conference games.  The Billikens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. MVC opponents.  Saint Louis is 1-7 ATS in its lsat eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Salukis are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. A-10 foes.  Roll with Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7 

I think this is a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘sell high’ on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This number has been inflated because the Thunder have been covering machines lately, while the Nets have been big point spread losers. 

Indeed, the Thunder are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall, while the Nets are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Oddsmakers have to adjust for these trends, and I think they have over-corrected here tonight. 

The Nets gave the Thunder all they wanted in both meetings last year.  The Nets won 100-95 as 7-point dogs on a neutral court in their first meeting.  They only lost 108-109 as 9.5-point dogs at Oklahoma City in the second meeting. 

Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Thunder.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5 

I know the Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after their 105-90 win in Miami last night.  But it’s short travel, and they had three days off prior to that game.  So they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here, which clearly negates this back-to-back situation.  And the Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on zero rest. 

The Nuggets are being overvalued right now due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are in a huge letdown spot here off their 106-103 road win over the Raptors on Monday.  I don’t think they’ll be nearly as excited to face the Magic on the road tonight as they were the Raptors. 

The Magic have been grossly undervalued for a month now, and it hasn’t stopped.  They have gone 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have won outright as underdogs six times during this stretch, and they’ve been a dog in 11 of those 13 games.  And now they are 5.5-point home dogs here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em. 

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, in December games are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Spurs/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8.5 

The Utah Jazz aren’t playing well enough to be laying 8.5 points to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  They are just 7-11 SU & 7-11 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I’ll gladly fade them here as massive favorites over the Spurs tonight. 

I think the Jazz are a tired team right now.  They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days tonight.  And they’ve been on the road for 10 of their last 12 games coming in.  All this travel is certainly wearing on this team.  And they have the distractions from returning home from that long road trip, dealing with friends and family back home. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in December games are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Jazz are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Spurs Tuesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5 

I always like backing teams in their first game with a new head coach because they seem to respond well.  And I expect that to be the case for the Chicago Bulls here tonight.  They fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and now longtime NBA assistant Jim Boylen takes over.  Boylen was an assistant coach under Frank Vogel and the Pacers from 2011-13. 

The Bulls also recently got back their best player in big man Lauir Markkanen, who scored 10 points in 26 minutes in his season debut against the Rockets after missing each of team’s first 23 games with an elbow injury.  Markkanen is expected to start Tuesday after coming off the bench against the Rockets. 

The Pacers have been without guard Victor Oladipo for the past seven games due to a knee injury.  He remains out tonight.  The Pacers have gone just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games with one of their wins coming against the lowly Suns by 5 points.  They can’t be laying 8.5 points tonight to the Bulls without Oladipo. 

Plays on underdogs (Chicago) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in December games over the past two seasons.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday. 

20* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Oklahoma Sooners inside Madison Square Garden tonight.  While both of these teams are 6-1 on the season, it’s easy to tell that the Sooners have the more impressive 6-1 record and they should handle the Fighting Irish at home here tonight. 

Notre Dame lost its top two scorers and three of its top four from a year ago in Bonzie Colson (19.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG), Matt Farrell (16.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Martinas Gene (11.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG).  That’s a lot of production to have to replace. 

All you really need to know is that Notre Dame lost to Radford 60-63 at home as 11.5-point favorites.  And they’ve played each of their first seven games of the season at home against weak competition, so this will be their first road game and by far their stiffest test of the season.  They barely beat a bad Illinois team 76-74 at home, which is the best team they’ve faced yet. 

Oklahoma’s 6-1 start has been much more impressive.  The Sooners have played five of their first seven games either on a neutral court or on the road.  They beat both Dayton and Florida on a neutral court, and their only loss this season has come to Wisconsin on a neutral, and Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the Big Ten. 

Notre Dame is 2-10 ATS after covering two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons.  Oklahoma is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team that wins greater than 80% of their games over the last three seasons.  Lon Kruger is a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games as the coach of Oklahoma.  Roll with Oklahoma Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5 

The Houston Rockets have been very good when Chris Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela have been on the floor at the same time.  They’ve been dreadful without one or more of them.  Well, all three are healthy, and the Rockets are as healthy as they’ve been all season right now. 

It has started to show in their play the past two games as well.  They went into San Antonio and won by 31 as 4-point favorites.  Then they handled their business at home against Chicago in a 16-point win as 13-point favorites.  And I expect them to go on the road and beat the Timberwolves tonight. 

Minnesota played well without Jimmy Butler for a while, but it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later.  And they lost to the Celtics 109-118 at home as 1.5-point favorites last time out.  That was a Celtics team in a tough spot playing the second of a back-to-back. 

The Timberwolves are simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers because of their recent success without Butler, but it has come against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland and San Antonio.  This is a big step up in class, just like the Celtics were. 

The Rockets have simply owned the Timberwolves, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings.  Houston is 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games following seven or more consecutive overs.  Roll with the Rockets Monday. 

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2 

The New York Knicks have been flying under the radar in recent weeks. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and I’ve been on them for the majority of the wins.  And now they’re once again undervalued as home underdogs to the struggling Washington Wizards when they shouldn’t be. 

The Knicks have four outright upsets as 7.5-point dogs or more in their last seven games, which just shows how undervalued they’ve been.  They won outright on the road as 14.5-point dogs at Boston and 8-point dogs at Memphis.  They also won outright at home as 7.5-point dogs against New Orleans and 8-point dogs against Milwaukee. 

The Wizards are 9-14 SU & 8-14-1 ATS this season.  They have really struggled on the road, going 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS while getting outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game in the process.  They play zero defense on the road, giving up 122.4 points per game.  I just don’t agree with them being favorites here given their road woes and how well the Knicks are playing. 

Washington is 6-21 ATS in road games against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Knicks Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +2.5 

The Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to the Lakers and Grizzlies. 

The Mavs are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, beating the Wizards, Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Nets and Celtics along the way.  So they have beaten some of the league’s best teams at home during this stretch.  They also won at Houston by 20 as 5.5-point underdogs. 

The Clippers are the team that’s starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after their surprising 15-6 start to the season.  They have won eight of their last nine coming in, but most of that has come against the league’s worst teams.  Now they are road favorites over the Mavs when they shouldn’t be. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Mavs have won 29 of their last 40 home meetings with the Clippers.  The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Dallas is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -3.5 

The Northern Iowa Panthers are a tired team right now.  They’ve stayed in hotels 16 of the past 21 nights and it’s clearly affecting their play.  Now they’re in another hotel for this US Bank Stadium Classic in Minneapolis to face South Dakota State tonight. 

This is a very good SDSU team that returned four starters from a squad that went 28-7 last year, including 13-1 in Summit League play.  They got great news in the offseason when Mike Daum announced he was returning to SDSU after initially entering his name in the NBA Draft.  He has won the Summit League Player of the Year each of the last two seasons, and Freshman Player of the Year before that.  He averaged 23.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG last season. 

Northern Iowa gets too much love for what it has done in year’s past, but the Panthers just haven’t been very good the past two seasons.  Head coach Ben Jacobson is trying to implement a more up-tempo system in this rebuilding year, and it’s not going so well.  The tough travel hasn’t helped as they will now be on the road for a 7th consecutive game. 

Northern Iowa is 3-4 SU and just 1-5 ATS in lined games this season.  Their only wins have come against Bemidji State, Eastern Kentucky by 5 and Old Dominion by 1.  They lost to Pennsylvania by 7, UT-Arlington by 9, ODU by 7 and Utah State by 19.  And South Dakota State is probably the best team they will have faced yet. 

Northern Iowa is 1-10 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 0-7 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more over the last three years.  The Jack Rabbits are 15-2 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Bet South Dakota State Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5 

The New York Knicks have been grossly underrated over the last few weeks.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes outright road upsets over Boston as 14.5-point dogs, Memphis as 8-point dogs, and a home upset of New Orleans as 7.5-point dogs. 

I’ve been riding the Knicks for the majority of these games.  Their only non-cover was against the 76ers last time out, but that was the second of a back-to-back and a tough spot.  They have now had two days’ rest since playing the 76ers on Wednesday and should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight. 

The Bucks are starting to be grossly overrated due to their hot start to the season.  They are 15-6 on the season, but just 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games.  They lost outright to the Suns as 13.5-point home favorites, and outright to the Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites.  They only beat the Spurs by 6 as 10-point home favorites and the Bulls by 3 as 15-point home favorites.  And now they are massive 8.5-point road favorites against the Knicks tonight, which is simply too much. 

New York wants revenge from a 113-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point underdogs in their first meeting of the season on October 22nd.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. 

Plays against any team (Milwaukee) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in Saturday games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Saturday. 

15* Oklahoma State/Minnesota BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued 15-17 season.  And they are definitely flying under the radar in the early going.  This is a Minnesota team that returned five starters from last year while also bringing in talented transfers and freshmen. 

Oklahoma State loses four of its top five scorers from last year, including Jeffrey Carroll (15.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) & Kendall Smith (13.1 PPG).  They also lost five of their top seven scorers who combined to average 53 points per game.  That’s going to be tough to replace with just two starters returning and their leading returning starter averaging 8.7 PPG. 

Minnesota is happy to be back home after four straight road games, and they’ve done well to go 5-1 this season.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two home games, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 28 as 14.5-point favorites and Utah by 9 as 8-point favorites. 

Oklahoma State is 4-2 on the season.  It is getting too much respect from its wins over LSU, Memphis, UTSA & College of Charleston.  But they lost by 19 to Villanova on a neutral, and they suffered a big upset in their only true road game at Charlotte as 13-point favorites.  If they can’t beat Charlotte on the road, they have no chance of this deep, experienced Minnesota squad. 

Oklahoma State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games as a road dog of 3 points or less or PK.  Dating back further, the Cowboys are 24-45 ATS in their last 69 games as a road dog of 6 points or less or PK.  Boynton is 2-9 ATS after having won four or five of his last six games as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Roll with Minnesota Friday. 

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -12 

The Boston Celtics are a good ‘buy low’ candidate right now. They have gotten off to a disappointing 11-10 start this season, but they are starting to play up to their potential.  They beat Atlanta by 18 on the road and New Orleans by 17 on the road in winning two of their last three coming in. 

Now the Celtics are well-rested and ready to go having last played on Monday, coming in on three days’ rest.  Meanwhile, they’ll be playing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  So the Celtics should have a huge advantage in the rest department here. 

And I haven’t even factored in that the Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the NBA yet.  Cleveland is 4-16 this season, including 1-9 on the road where they are losing by an average of double-digits per game.  They are coming off a 17-point loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. 

Boston is 12-1 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games coming in over the past two seasons.  The Celtics are 15-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Cavaliers are 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games.  Take the Celtics Friday. 

15* Pacers/Lakers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers should be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back losses, including their worst loss of the season in an 85-117 setback at Denver.  It was definitely Lebron James’ worst game of the season.  James and company will be looking to make amends tonight. 

The Pacers are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers off back-to-back road wins at Utah and Phoenix. And now they’ll be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Plus, they’ll be without their best player in Victor Oladipo (21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.7 APG).  I just don’t think they’ll even be competitive tonight against a motivated Lakers squad without Oladipo. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Lakers and Pacers.  The home team is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Lakers have won their last two home meetings with the Pacers outright as underdogs by 13 points each, and they didn’t have James or near the talent they have now in those two matchups. 

The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their road games.  Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine Thursday games, while Indiana is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 Thursday games.  The Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with the Lakers Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +12 

Portland State has been grossly underrated the last few seasons in non-conference play.  The Vikings are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.  They are coming off a 20-win season and should be competitive in the Big Sky once again this year. 

The roster now has the quickness that will fit second-year coach Barret Peery’s up-tempo, high-pressure style.  The Vikings do lose three starters from last year’s team, but they return Big Sky Freshman of the Year Holland Woods, who averaged 10.5 PPG and led the league in assists last year.  And Peery got a large influx of talent via transfers this offseason that will help with depth. 

Stanford also returns just three starters and lost three of its top four scorers from last season, including its top two in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG).  It’s no wonder the Cardinal have struggled to a 3-3 start this season with its only wins coming against Seattle, UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee.  All three losses came by 16 points or more. 

Stanford is 1-9 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game over the past three seasons.  Portland State is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the past two years.  The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes.  The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  That includes their upset 87-78 win over Stanford as 6.5-point dogs last year on a neutral court.  They’ll hang around in the rematch this season.  Take Portland State Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4.5 

The Timberwolves are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers.  They have won three straight, but those three victories came against the Nets, Bulls and Cavs, three of the worst teams in the entire NBA.  They take a big step up in class here against the Spurs tonight. 

Few teams have owned a franchise quite like the Spurs have owned the Timberwolves.  San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 meetings with Minnesota.  That’s why they should not even be underdogs in this game, let alone 4.5-point dogs, which could easily come into play tonight. 

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Minnesota.  Roll with the Spurs Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Jazz have to be highly motivated for a victory right now.  They have lost four of their last five coming in.  But they get their best player in Donovan Mitchell back from a rib injury, and he is worth more to the point spread for this team than almost any other player in the NBA. 

The Nets suffered a big blow when they lost Caris LeVert, their best player, to a foot injury a few weeks ago.  They have struggled to find their footing, going just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They should be catching more than just 3.5 points here against the Jazz. 

Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Nets, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Jazz Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2.5 

Both Evansville and Wyoming are inexperienced teams who return one starter apiece.  But I’ll gladly fade the Cowboys, who lose four of their top five scorers from last year, and are currently playing without one of their starters in Jordan Naugton due to a knee injury. 

I like Evansville’s hiring of hometown legend Walter McCarty, a 10-year NBA veteran and former All-American at Kentucky.  He was hired off Brad Stevens’ staff with the Celtics.  He brings the program some hope, and the early returns haven’t been bad. 

Evansville has gone 3-1 ATS in lined games this season.  They blew out their two opponents at home, including their 22-point win over Texas Southern as 4-point favorites.  Their three losses all came on the road to Illinois, Xavier and Ball State, but they covered the spread in two of those, including their 6-point loss at Xavier as 20.5-point dogs. 

Wyoming has had a plethora of questionable results thus far.  They lost to UC-Santa Barbara outright by 10 as 6-point home favorites and Niagara outright by 5 as 7.5-point home favorites.  They also lost by 19 as 10-point dogs at Oregon State and by 12 as 8-point dogs to Boston College.  They are just 1-5 ATS this season and their two wins have come against Grambling by 8 as 12.5-point favorites and by 2 over Richmond.  I’m not quite sure why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers tonight based on those results. 

Evansville is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 points.  The Purple Aces are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Wyoming is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cowboys are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win.  Bet Evansville Wednesday. 

15* NC State/Wisconsin ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Wisconsin -6 

I love fading NC State in this situation.  The Wolfpack have opened 6-0 and are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it tonight.  But they haven’t played anyone of any significance, and now they’ll be playing their first true road game of the season against a Wisconsin team I’m very high on. 

For starters, NC State lost its two best players from last year in Allerik Freeman (16.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and Omer Yurtseven (13.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG).  And NC State’s six wins have all come at home against the likes of Mount St. Mary’s, MD-East Shore, UNC-Asheville, Maine, St. Peters and Mercer.  And they only beat Mercer by 4 as 19.5-point favorites last time out. 

Wisconsin returned all five starters from last year and is a legit contender in the Big Ten.  They also got some key guys back from injury and are fully healthy.  They are off to a 5-1 start this year and they’ve been through the gauntlet.  They beat Xavier in a true road game by 9, beat Stanford by 16 on a neutral and Oklahoma by 20 on a neutral.  Their only loss came against nationally ranked Virginia by 7 as underdogs on a neutral.  They are battle-tested and ready for this showdown with NC State to say the least. 

NC State is 0-7 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games on the season over the last three years.  Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Badgers. 

NC State is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Badgers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. ACC opponents.  The Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten foes.  Take Wisconsin Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +7.5 

The New York Knicks have been undervalued for four straight games now, and I’ve been on them for three of them.  I’m on them again tonight catching 7.5 points to the Pistons.  Oddsmakers and the betting public just keep failing to realize this team is actually pretty good, and much better than their 7-14 record would suggest. 

Four games back, the Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers.  Then they went on the road and beat Boston by 8 outright as 14.5-point dogs.  Then they upset the Pelicans by 5 as 7.5-point dogs.  And last time out they went into Memphis and won outright by 5 as 8-point dogs.  And here we are again with the Knicks catching another big number against Detroit tonight. 

The Pistons come in overvalued here after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Unlike New York, Detroit is actually getting respect from oddsmakers now.  And these are expectations that I don’t think they can live up to tonight here against the Knicks as this one should go right down to the wire with New York possibly pulling off a 4th straight upset. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a road win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday. 

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -12.5 

TCU dropped from the Top 25 with its 64-73 upset loss to Lipscomb last time out.  The Horned Frogs are now 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS on the season.  I think this is the time to ‘buy low’ on them knowing they’ll be primed for a big effort to bounce back from that upset loss.  We’ll get TCU’s ‘A’ game tonight. 

It’s easy to see why TCU opened the season in the Top 25.  They returned five players who started at least 14 games last season, and five players who all averaged at least 7.9 points per game, including three that averaged in double figures.  This is still a very good team, but one that hasn’t played up to its potential yet.  And the Horned Frogs have had five days off since that loss to Lipscomb to get better in practice and prepare for Eastern Michigan. 

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after a 74-78 loss to Detroit as 10.5-point home favorites.  The Eagles are just 4-3 this season and 1-4 ATS in their lined games.  Their four wins have all come at home over Rochester (by 10), Drexel (by 4 as 13.5-point favorites), Goshen and Boston U.  They were blown out in their two true road games at Duke (by 38 as 26-point dogs) and at Rutgers (by 27 as 7-point dogs).  Those two efforts make be believe they aren’t capable of staying within 13 points of this motivated TCU squad. 

EMU is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. teams who average 16 or more assists per game.  EMU is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Horned Frogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Bet TCU Monday. 

15* Rockets/Wizards NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +2.5 

The Washington Wizards are starting to play up to their potential now that the trade rumors started swirling.  They realize they are playing for their jobs now, and it’s finally nice to see them play to their capability. 

The Wizards are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Clippers 125-118 at home as 1-point favorites and the Pelicans 124-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites.  Their only loss came on the road at Toronto during this stretch.  And they should not be home dogs to the Rockets here. 

Houston is coming off back-to-back upset road losses at Detroit (by 5) as 3.5-point favorites and at Cleveland (by 9) as 6.5-point favorites.  They have some serious injury issues right now with Chris Paul (leg) questionable and Gerald Green (ankle) questionable, and they still haven’t gotten a replacement for Carmelo Anthony.  They just aren’t playing well at all right now at 9-9 on the season, and they are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA. 

The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Wizards Monday. 

15* Miami/Seton Hall ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -5 

Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity.  That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.   

That trio is irreplaceable.  It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard.  That has been evident in two games for the Pirates this season.  They lost 57-80 at Nebraska as 8-point underdogs, and lost outright as 6-point favorites in a 64-66 home loss to Saint Louis.  I think the fact that they’ve won and covered their first two games of this Wooden Legacy Tournament has them overvalued, because wins over Grand Canyon and Hawaii are far from impressive. 

Miami returned four players from last year that averaged at least 8.8 points per game each, and several other key reserves.  It’s no surprise that the Hurricanes are off to a 5-0 start this season.  And I think they should be bigger favorites tonight against this rebuilding Seton Hall squad. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Seton Hall) - a good team from last season that won 60% to 80% of their games playing a team that had a winning record, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Miami Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5 

The New York Knicks are getting zero respect from oddsmakers and I’ll continue to back them until they do.  They are catching 8.5 points here against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, which is simply too much. 

The Knicks have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs to the Celtics, and won outright by 5 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans.  This team is better than the betting public realizes, and they should give the Grizzlies a run for their money tonight. 

No question the Grizzlies have been undervalued up to this point.  They have gone 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS on the season.  However, now they are being asked to lay a big number here, when usually they are in the role of the underdog.  In fact, Memphis hasn’t been more than a 7.5-point favorite in any game this season.  So this bar has been set too high here as 8.5-point favorites over the Knicks. 

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Denver Nuggets +6 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to get too much respect from the books after going 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall.  I faded them last night with success on the Hornets +6, and I’ll fade them again here in this tough spot as the Thunder will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Nuggets are in the same situation, but I worry less about them, especially after they blew out Orlando 112-87 last night so their starters didn’t have to play too many minutes.  Plus, the Nuggets are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they are suited for these back-to-back situations as well as anyone.  The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest. 

The Nuggets have had the THunder’s number, going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point as 5-point road dogs in a 95-94 loss.  And here they are catching 6 points, which could certainly come into play tonight even if they don’t win straight up. 

The Nuggets are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 division games, while the Thunder are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 division games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Nuggets Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +1 

This is a play against the New Orleans Pelicans.  They are already without one starter in Elfrid Payton, and now they could be without their best player in Anthony Davis, who had to leave last night’s game against the Knicks with a strained quad.  Even if Davis plays I still like this pick, but if he doesn’t it would be an added bonus. 

The Pelicans are running on fumes right now.  They’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the entire NBA.  And the Pelicans have been awful on the road this season, going 2-8 SU.  So they shouldn’t be favored here given the spot and their road struggles. 

The spot isn’t nearly as bad for the Wizards.  Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back as well, but they had two days off prior to last night’s game.  That means it will be just their 2nd game in 4 days here.  And they are a young, deep enough team to where these back-to-backs don’t affect them as much. 

The Wizards have owned the Pelicans, going 12-1 SU in the last 13 meetings.  They are a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  New Orleans is 0-7 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Wizards Saturday. 

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +2.5 

The Baylor Bears are in a rebuild under Scott Drew this season.  They lost each of their top four scorers from last year in Manu Lecomte (16.2 PPG), Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. (14.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG), Terry Maston (11.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and Nuni Omot (9.9 PPG).  That’s 51.5 points per game lost from last season.  You simply don’t just replace those four players. 

The signs were there that this would be a rebuilding season from Game 1.  Baylor lost 69-72 at home to Texas Southern as 22-point favorites.  They also only beat lowly Prairie View A&M 91-80 as 16.5-point favorites.  And now the Bears will be playing their first road game of the season here Friday. 

The Ole Miss Rebels hired Kermit Davis from Middle Tennessee this offseason.  Davis won at least 24 gams six times in his 16 years with the Blue Raiders.  He was one of the most underrated coaching hires of the offseason.  And the cupboard wasn’t bare as the Rebels returned three starters, led by All-SEC caliber G Terence Davis (13.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG last year), plus two breakout candidates in F Bruce Stevens (10.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and G Breein Tyree (10.8 PPG). 

I’ve been impressed with the job Davis has done already.  The Rebels are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS, beating Western Michigan 90-64 as 14-point home favorites and Nicholls State 75-55 as 18.5-point home favorites.  They also gave Butler a run for its money in its only true road game thus far, only losing 76-83 as 9-point underdogs.  I have no doubt the Rebels are the better team in this matchup and should not be underdogs. 

Baylor is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Ole Miss Friday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +6 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are primed for a letdown here.  They went into Thanksgiving Break with a huge National TV win over Golden State 123-95 on Wednesday.  After beating the defending champs, they’ll have a very hard time getting up to play the Charlotte Hornets tonight. 

The Hornets have improved as much as almost any team in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS start this season while outscoring their opponents by 5.4 points per game.  The improvements have come on offense, where they are scoring 115.7 points per game.  And Kemba Walker is having an MVP-caliber season thus far to lead the way, plus all of their young talent is starting to come into their own. 

Plays on road underdogs (Charlotte) - off three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more against an opponent that has scored 110 points or more in three straight games are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1996.   

Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Hornets Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +7.5

The New York Knicks are way undervalued right now.  They got off to a fast start this season, became overvalued, but then have lost six of their last seven coming in.  And they’ve been catching too many points here of late, including tonight at home against the Pelicans. 

The Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, and won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs at Boston in their last two games.  And now they are catching 7 points here at home against a Pelicans team that is simply getting too much love right now. 

Indeed, the Pelicans have won six of their last eight coming in, while also covering five of their last seven against the spread.  And when you consider the Pelicans are only 2-7 SU on the road this season, there’s no way they should be favored by 7 points on the highway here against the Knicks. 

New York wants revenge from a 124-129 road loss at New Orleans as 11-point dogs on November 16th just a week ago today.  That also sets the Knicks up for a very profitable system in support of them. 

Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Knicks Friday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards +10 

The Washington Wizards have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA thus far.  And there is now trade talk where management says nobody is off limits.  That negative media attention certainly has the Wizards undervalued right now. 

The Wizards showed a ton of heart last time out after the rumors, coming back from 19 points down at halftime to beat the Clippers 125-118.  If they were going to quit, it would have shown in that game.  And now I think they can rally around that comeback victory and start playing up to their potential moving forward. 

The Raptors are starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers after their 15-4 start to the season.  And I think this is a terrible spot for them.  They are coming off a four-game road trip, and I always like fading teams on their first game back from an extended trip.  Plus, they’ll be playing their 3rd game in four days here while dealing with family obligations at home Thursday.  The Wizards come in on two days’ rest. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Washington) - after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games against an opponent that scored 120 points or more last game are 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Wizards Friday. 

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio Spurs -2.5 

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after going just 2-6 in their last eight games overall.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games, and all five losses came on the road.  They actually beat Houston 96-89 as 3.5-point dogs and Golden State 104-92 as 3-point favorites in their two home games during this stretch.  They are clearly undervalued right now. 

Memphis is overvalued after going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Now they’re only catching 2.5 points on the road to the Spurs here.  That’s not enough when you consider the Spurs are 47-8 SU in their last 55 home meetings with the Grizzlies, including 7-0 in the last seven in the Alamo City. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Antonio) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games.  Take the Spurs Wednesday. 

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Clemson -4 

The 16th-ranked Clemson Tigers are one of the best teams in the country.  They returned three starters from a team that went 25-10 last season and reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997.  And they’ve opened 5-0 this season. 

Guard Marcquise Reed was the leading scorer last year and he’s back for his senior year after considering the NBA.  Shelton Mitchell also tested the NBA before coming back, giving Clemson one of the ACC’s most experienced backcourts.  Forward Elijah Thomas led the team in rebounding last year and is also back for his senior season.  David Skara, the team’s best defender, is also back after nearly leaving to play professionally in Croatia.  All four are seniors. 

Creighton loses four key players from last year, including its top two scorers in Marcus Foster (19.8 PPG) and Cheri Thomas (15.1 PPG).  Also gone are Roby Hegner (8.4 PPG) and Ronnie Harrell (7.0 PPG).  The Bluejays only return one player who scored in double figures last season in Martin Krampelj (11.9 PPG). 

Creighton is 4-1, but all four wins came against bad teams in Western Illinois, East Tennessee State, Boise State and Georgia State.  They lost their only game against a quality foe in Ohio State 60-69 at home as 2.5-point dogs.  And now Clemson will be the best team they’ve played yet, and they are only catching 4 points here on a neutral court.  It’s not enough. 

Clemson is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 10-1 ATS after giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds last game over the past three years.  Creighton is 2-9 ATS as an underdog over the lsat two seasons.  The Bluejays are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Roll with Clemson Wednesday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets -3 

The Charlotte Hornets are one of the more underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 8-8 SU & 10-6 ATS.  Their improvement has come on offense, where they are scoring 115.0 points per game and outscoring the opposition by 4.6 points per game on the season.  Kemba Walker is playing at an MVP level, scoring a combined 103 points in the last two games. 

The Pacers come in overvalued off their 121-94 win over Utah, their third straight win.  But all three wins came at home, and the Pacers haven’t played nearly as well on the road.  Plus, they could be without their two most talented players in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, who are both listed as questionable tonight. 

Plays on favorites (Charlotte) - after a home games here both teams scored 100 or more points against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Pacers.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday. 

15* Minnesota/Washington BTN No-Brainer on Washington -1 

The Washington Huskies are loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 21-13 last season.  They have opened 4-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Auburn, a Top 10 team in the country. 

Minnesota is coming off a 15-17 season and has been a big disappointment since Richard Pitino took over.  The Golden Gophers lose two of their best players from last year in Nat Mason (16.7 PPG) and Reggie Lynch (10.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG). 

I think Minnesota is overvalued right now due to opening 4-0 this season.  The schedule has been easy as both Utah and Texas A&M are rebuilding teams, and wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Santa Clara are far from impressive.  I think we’re getting the better team here in the Huskies at basically a pick ‘em price. 

Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three against the spread over the past two seasons.  The Golden Gophers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  Bet Washington Wednesday. 

20* Washington/Texas A&M ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington -3 

The Washington Huskies are loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 21-13 last season.  They have opened 3-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to Auburn, a Top 10 team in the country. 

Texas A&M lost three players to the NBA from last season in F Robert Williams, C Tyler Davis and F DJ Hogg.  This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for them.  And now they’ve lost their best returning player in Admon Gilder to a hamstring injury.  Gilder decided to return for his senior season after considering the NBA, so this injury is a big blow for them. 

The Aggies are just 1-3 this season with their only win coming 98-83 over Savannah State as 29-point favorites.  They lost to UC-Irvine at home, lost by 23 to Gonzaga and lost by 5 to Minnesota yesterday.  Simply put, they aren’t very good, and they should be more than only 3-point underdogs to Washington today. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Washington) - after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Washington Tuesday. 

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Nebraska -2 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in Big Ten play.  Leading the way is first-team All-Big Ten guard James Palmer, who scored in double figures in 31 of 33 games and averaged 18.8 PPG.  Also back is G Glynn Watson Jr (10.5 PPG), F Isaac Copeland (12.9 PPG) and F Isaiah Roby (8.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG). 

These four have led the Huskers to an impressive 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season with four straight blowout victories.  They beat Mississippi Valley State 106-37, SE Louisiana 87-35, Seton Hall 80-57 and Missouri State 85-62.  They have covered the spread by a combined 88 points in those four games, or by an average of 22 points per game.  Oddsmakers are just way off on this team. 

Texas Tech is coming off an impressive 27-10 season last year.  However, the Red Raiders lost a ton of talent from that team.  They lost leading scorer Keenan Evans (17.2 PPG) and five of their top six scorers overall.  It’s a rebuilding year for the Red Raiders this season. 

The Huskers are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  The Red Raiders are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 neutral site games.  Texas Tech is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8 

This is certainly a ‘buy low’ situation on the New York Knicks.  They have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  So now they are catching a whopping 8 points at home to the Portland Trail Blazers, and I simply believe it’s too much tonight. 

Four of those five losses came on the road, and the other was the 2nd of a back-to-back situation at home to Orlando.  So the schedule is the biggest reason for their recent struggles.  I look for the Knicks to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight in a much better situation here with yesterday off. 

The Blazers are in a much more difficult situation here.  They will be playing their fourth straight road game.  They lost the first two games on this trip by 9 to the Lakers and by 16 to the Timberwolves before beating the hapless Wizards last time out. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday. 

15* Arizona/Iowa State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Arizona PK 

Arizona reloaded this season by going the transfer route.  They nabbed Chase Jeter (Duke), Justin Coleman (Samford) and Ryan Luther (Pitt), who are all playing significant roles for them this season.  They are among the top six scorers on the team.  And Brandon Randolph (18.7 PPG) and Brandon Williams (14.3 PPG) are leading the team in scoring. 

I’ve been impressed with the Wildcats thus far.  They are off to a 3-0 start and handling their business with all three wins coming by 21 points or more.  And they should be able to handle this Iowa State team that is missing several key players due to injury or suspension coming in. 

Iowa State should be good this season, but only if healthy.  They are without Lindell Wigginton, last year’s leading scorer.  They are without Cameron Lard, last year’s third-leading scorer.  And they are without Solomon Young and Zoran Talley Jr., who players who started for them last season.  They can’t handle Arizona in their current state. 

Arizona is 10-1 ATS in road games after covering two if its last three against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Cyclones are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.  Take Arizona Monday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are fully healthy now and playing some great basketball.  They have won four of their last six coming in, including an impressive 98-86 win at Boston as 4-point dogs last time out.  They only patch of this season they struggled was when they were playing without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell. 

Speaking of leading scorers, the Indiana Pacers will be without their tonight in Victor Oladipo.  He is the one player they cannot afford to lose as he averages 21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 4.7 APG.  He is the heart and soul of this team.  Without him they are a below-average squad that the Jazz should handle. 

The Jazz are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 70% of their games.  The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Heat -1 

The Miami Heat had yesterday off and now host the Lakers.  They should be more than 1-point favorites over the Lakers in this matchup considering the Lakers are on the 2nd of a back-to-back. 

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Heat are 15-6 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the Lakers.  Bet the Heat Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +12.5 

The Houston Rockets come into this game overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are also in a massive letdown spot here off their win over the defending champion Golden State Warriors on Thursday, a game they clearly had circled. 

The Rockets won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight.  The Kings played yesterday in a 104-112 loss to the Grizzlies, but this back-to-back situation isn’t so bad for them.   

That’s because they had three days off prior to that Memphis game.  This is a very young, deep team that will have plenty of energy left in the tank to give the Rockets a run for their money tonight. 

The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero rest.  The Kings are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rockets.  Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games off three or more consecutive ATS wins.  Roll with the Kings Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Saint Louis +6.5 

Saint Louis is a team on the rise under Travis Ford.  They are expected to challenge for an Atlantic 10 title this season, and for good reason.  They return three starters who combined to average 34 points per game last season. 

The Billikens are off to a 3-0 start, but they are 0-3 ATS, which I believe has them undervalued going into this game with Seton Hall Saturday.  This is a game they can win outright. 

Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity.  That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.   

That trio is irreplaceable.  It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard.  That was evident last time out when the Pirates lost 57-80 at Nebraska.  They should not even be favored in this game, let alone 6.5-point favorites at that. 

Seton Hall is 3-12 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Lakers -4 

The Lakers are finally starting to play up to their potential.  They have gone 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They are only laying 4 points here to the Orlando Magic, and I think we’re getting a discount today. 

The Lakers are well-rested as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days.  The Lakers are coming off a 126-117 win over Portland on Wednesday.  Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game. 

The Magic are coming off an upset win over the 76ers.  The Magic are just 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a win.  Orlando is also just 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games when paying on two days’ rest.  Take the Lakers Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2 

The Charlotte Hornets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after their worst loss of the season, an 89-113 setback at Cleveland as 8.5-point favorites.  They’ve had three days off since that loss on Tuesday to get ready for this game tonight. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here.  They won a hard-fought battle with the Jazz 113-107 last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Hornets.  This is a dream spot for Charlotte. 

Adding fuel to the fire for the Hornets is the fact that they’ve already lost their first two meetings with the 76ers by a combined 3 points.  So they’ll be revenge-minded here. 

Charlotte is a perfect 13-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  The Hornets are winning by 10.5 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Hornets Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +7 

Both the Sacramento Kings (8-6) and Memphis Grizzlies (8-5) have been two of the surprise teams in the NBA this season.  The Grizzlies are winning with defense, while the Kings are winning with offense. 

The Kings are averaging 114.5 points per game this season, way up from last year, and it’s largely due to the improvement of point guard De’Aron Fox in his second season.  The Kings are shooting 48.2% as a team as they have gotten out in transition more and gotten easier buckets.   

The Kings come in rested as they have had the last three days off, so they’ll be ready to go tonight.  And Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on three or more days’ rest. 

I think this is a precarious spot for the Grizzlies.  They just pulled off a huge 116-113 upset at Milwaukee on Wednesday as 9.5-point underdogs.  They could be in line for a letdown here against the Kings, who won 97-92 in their first meeting this season back on October 24th. 

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Memphis) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team that wins 60% to 75% of their games playing a team with a winning record and 65-30 (68.4%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Kings Friday.

15* Raptors/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Boston -1.5 

The Boston Celtics are undervalued right now due to their lackluster 8-6 start that has seen them go 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They should be bigger than 1.5-point home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight. 

The Celtics came through with one of their best performances of the season last time out.  They crushed the Bulls 111-82 at home.  And now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They’ll be motivated to prove to the Raptors that they are the best team in the East. 

The Raptors opened 12-1 this season.  But they were overvalued at that point, and have since lost two straight at home to the Pelicans by 16 and the Pistons by 2.  They were nearly double-digit favorites in both those games.  They have some injury concerns right now that aren’t helping, either. 

The Celtics are 9-0 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons.  Boston is 12-3 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more over the last two years.  The Celtics are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Celtics Friday. 

15* Warriors/Rockets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Houston -1.5 

The Houston Rockets have had this game circled on their calendars ever since losing in Game 7 to the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.  It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night at home to get revenge on the Warriors. 

The Rockets may have won that series if Chris Paul didn’t miss the last two games with an injury, both resulting in Houston losses.  And the Rockets are hitting their stride right now.  They have won their last two games over the Pacers by 12 and the Nuggets by 10 and they are heating up from the field.  It’s probably no coincidence that they have started to play well since deciding to part ways with Carmelo Anthony. 

Conversely, the Warriors are faltering right now, and there’s tension in the locker room after Draymond Green got into it with Kevin Durant a few nights back.  They lost in that game in overtime to the Clippers, and then were sluggish on the second of a back-to-back in a 7-point win over the lowly Hawks.  Stephen Curry remains out and is questionable to return tonight.  And the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Rockets Thursday.

20* Blazers/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers are finally starting to gel as a team.  They have reeled off three straight victories coming into this game with the Portland Trail Blazers.  And now they’ve had two days off since last playing on Sunday, so they’ll be rested and ready to go at home tonight. 

The Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after opening the season 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS.  They’ve been one of the best covering teams in the league.  But that is largely due to a home-heavy schedule, and they have handled their business at home this year. 

In fact, the Blazers have played nine of their first 13 games at home.  They have only played four times on the road.  Two of those home games were with the Lakers.  They won the first meeting but lost the second.  And now the Lakers get their shot at the Blazers at home this time around. 

The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Knicks +9.5 

This is a great opportunity to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks and ‘sell high’ on the Thunder tonight.  The Thunder are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall coming in. 

But Russell Westbrook was a big part of that streak.  And now Westbrook is out with an ankle injury.  The Thunder have been able to win three of four without him, but two of those wins were against the Suns and Cavs, two of the worst teams in the NBA.  They’ll be fortunate to win this game, let alone win it by double-digits, which is what it’s going to take to cover this massive 9.5-point spread. 

We’ll ‘buy low’ on the Knicks, who are coming off their worst performance of the season.  They lost 89-115 at home to the Magic on Sunday, but now will be rested and ready to go with two days off in between games.  And that loss is forgivable when you consider they were coming off a tough loss in Toronto the night before and playing the second of a back-to-back.  They’ll be looking to make amends tonight. 

Oklahoma City is 8-23 ATS after having won two of its last three games over the past two seasons.  New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss.  The Thunder are 30-45 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite.  Roll with the Knicks Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of my favorite teams to back coming into the season and through the early part of the season.  But they just lost their best player in Caris LeVert to a dislocated foot, and that’s a huge blow to the team as he was one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  He was their best playmaker and leading scorer. 

I think the Miami Heat will be playing with an edge tonight.  They have lost three straight coming in, and they’ll be looking to take out hotter frustration on the Nets tonight.  They are as healthy as they’ve been all season and should put forth a big effort here. 

This is the Nets’ first home game back from a long four-game road trip.  I always like fading teams on their first home game back from a long trip because there are distractions at home they have to deal with.  And the Nets are certainly still feeling the loss of LeVert as the life has been sucked out of the franchise now.  It could linger for a few games before they recover. 

The Heat are 11-2 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Miami is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Heat Wednesday. 

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +6.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight after the trade for Jimmy Butler.  It’s going to take some time for Butler to gel with his new team, and the 76ers will take a step back before they take a step forward with him, especially with all of these expectations from oddsmakers now. 

The Magic have quietly gone 4-2 in their last six games overall.  They won 117-110 in San Antonio and 115-89 in New York, while also beating the Wizards 117-108 and the Cavs 102-100 at home.  They are fully healthy and playing some solid basketball right now. 

The Magic are more than capable of beating the 76ers, let alone staying within 6.5 points here.  They showed that in their first meeting with the 76ers in a 115-116 road loss as 12.5-point underdogs.  They’ll now be out revenge from that defeat back on October 20th.  The 76ers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. 

Plays on home teams (Orland) - after two straight games where they attempted 10-plus less free throws than their opponent against an opponent that is off a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* Michigan/Villanova FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +7.5 

I really like the Michigan Wolverines catching 7.5 points tonight against the Villanova Wildcats.  For starters, they’ll be out for revenge from their 79-62 loss to the Wildcats in the Championship Game back in April.  They’ll clearly be the more motivated team in this one. 

“I definitely still recall walking off the court and hearing all the Villanova fans going crazy saying, ‘Villanova national champs,” Michigan guard Jordan Poole told the Detroit News. “It was kind of sat in the back of my mind and it’s just fuel to the fire.  Isaiah (Livers) and me talk about it.  We want it really bad.  I mean, I don’t even know how to describe it." 

Villanova lost almost everyone from that team.  They lost their four leading scorers all to the NBA in Jalen Brunson (18.9 PPG), Mikal Bridges (17.7 PPG), Donte DiVencenzo (13.4 PPG) and Omari Spellman (10.9 PPG).  Sure, they have some talent coming in, but you simply don’t replace those four guys. 

Michigan brings back three starters from their Final Four team in Charles Matthews (13.0 PPG), Zavier Simpson and Isaiah Livers, who combined with Eli Brooks to make 34 starts last year.  They got two ESPN Top 100 recruits in Brandon Johns and David DeJulius to help contribute right away.  They are neck-and-neck with Michigan State in terms off odds to win the Big Ten title this season, so they’re going to be good again. 

Michigan rode its defense to the Final Four last season, and it will do so again.  That has been on display in their first two games this season.  They held Norfolk State to 44 points and 30.5% shooting and then Holy Cross to just 37 points and 30.8% shooting. 

The Wolverines are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % of better than .600.  Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Michigan Wednesday. 

15* Hawks/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +13 

The Golden State Warriors are just not the same team without Steph Curry.  They are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games without him with their only win coming at home against the Brooklyn Nets.  And they did themselves no favors by erasing a huge deficit last night to the Clippers. 

Indeed, the Warriors rallied from double-digits down to force overtime against the Clippers last night, only to lose 116-121 in the extra session.  And now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, so they won’t have much left in the tank for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. 

The Hawks went on the road and showed they could play with a good team from the Western Conference last time out, only losing 106-107 to the Lakers as 11-point underdogs.  And now they had yesterday off and will be rested and ready to take their shot at the short-handed, tired defending champs.  I know we’ll get a big effort from the Hawks tonight, but I question what kind of effort we’ll get from the Warriors without Curry. 

The Hawks have played the Warriors very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 12 points or less.  The Hawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 105 points or more in four straight games coming in.  The Warriors are 1-12 ATS in Tuesday games over the last two seasons.  Take the Hawks Tuesday. 

20* Wisconsin/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Wisconsin PK 

The Wisconsin Badgers are loaded this season.  They return all five starters and 95% of their scoring from last season, led by forward Ethan Happ.  He averaged 17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last season and is one of the best big men in the country. 

The Badgers were hit hard by injuries last season.  But now they get three important pieces in the backcourt back from injuries in Brad Davison, D’Mitrik Trice and Kobe King.  Trice and King only played in 10 games each before being sidelined last year.  Also back are Khalil Iverson (8.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and 3-point specialist Brevin Pritzl (8.9 PPG). 

Xavier is in rebuilding mode with head coach Chris Mack leaving for Louisville.  Gone with him are each of the top three scorers from last year in Trevon Bluiett (19.3 PPG), J.P. Macura (12.9 PPG) and Kareem Kanter (10.9 PPG).  Also gone are key reserves Kaiser Gates (7.2 PPG) and Sean O’Mara (6.7 PPG). 

Xavier has opened 2-0, but they’ve been unconvincing home wins over IUPUI 82-69 as 18.5-point favorites and Evansville 91-85 as 20.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread in both games.  That 6-point win over Evansville is particularly concerning when you consider Evansville lost 60-99 at Illinois already, an Illinois team that returns just one starter this year.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday. 

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are out for revenge tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.  They have already lost twice at home to the Grizzlies this season, but one of those was without Donovan Mitchell.  It’s clear that the Jazz are going to want this game a lot more than Memphis will tonight. 

All has been good with the Grizzlies since Mitchell returned from injury.  They have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS since his return, beating the Mavs by 15 at home and the Celtics by 8 at home.  And they should be able to go on the road in this spot now that they are fully healthy and beat the Grizzlies by 4-plus points. 

The Grizzlies are the ones with the injury problems right now.  JayMychal Green and Chandler Parsons have been out for a while, but now Omri Casspi and Dillon Brooks are also out.  They are short-handed, which will make it tough for them to compete with the Jazz, who are one of the best teams in the NBA att full strength. 

Memphis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games off two consecutive home games.  Utah is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Jazz are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - revenge a loss where opponent score 100 or more points against opponent that’s off a home win scoring 110 or more are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Jazz Monday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Phoenix Suns +9 

The Phoenix Suns are showing great value as 9-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  This is the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Suns after losing 10 of their last 11 games coming in.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them. 

It’s also the perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  But almost all of that run came with Russell Westbrook healthy and leading this team.  That’s not the case any longer. 

The Thunder were able to win their first two games without Westbrook, beating the Cavs on the road and the Rockets at home.  But it caught up with them last time out in a 96-111 road loss at Dallas.  Teams can usually play well for one or two games without their stars, but it doesn’t last.  The Thunder are just an average to below average team in this league without Westbrook. 

The Thunder are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Monday games.  Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss.  Phoenix is 78-50 ATS in its last 128 games off a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Thunder are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games after having won two of their last three coming in.  Bet the Suns Monday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -2 

The Miami Heat will be highly motivated for a win Monday night.  They have lost two straight to Indiana and Washington coming in.  And they also want revenge on the Philadelphia 76ers after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them last year. 

But these aren’t the same 76ers.  They traded away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Jimmy Butler.  And Butler isn’t even going to play tonight.  So they are short-handed tonight, and I don’t think they can beat the Heat in their current state. 

Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games after two straight games committing 7-plus turnovers more than their opponents.  The 76ers are just 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.9 points per game in the process. 

Miami is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Heat are 9-0 ATS vs. good foul drawing teams who shoot 27 or more free throws per game over the last three years.  The 76ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  Take the Heat Monday. 

15* Stanford/UNC ESPN 2 No-Brainer on North Carolina -18 

The UNC Tar Heels return three starters and have their best recruiting class in years, which coincidentally comes as they emerged from years of uncertainty due to the now-resolved NCAA academic issues.  This team is loaded and ready to make another Final Four run this season. 

Luke Maye (16.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG last year) is the Preseason ACC Player of the Year.  Cameron Johnson (12.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Kenny Williams (11.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG) are both back as well.  Nassir Little (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this season) and Coby White (11.0 PPG) are two freshmen standouts who are already helping this team right away. 

UNC has been impressive in winning and covering in its first two games this season.  The Tar Heels won 78-67 as 10.5-point road favorites at Wofford and 116-67 as 17.5-point road favorites at Elon.  And now they have their home opener here against Stanford in what should be a great atmosphere on National TV. 

Stanford is a team I’m way down on this year.  A magazine I trust picked the Cardinal to finish 10th of 12 teams in the Pac-12 this season, and I can see why.  They have just two returning starters.  They lost three double-digit scorers from last year in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG), Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG) and Michael Humphrey (10.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG).  And their roster features 11 of 15 players who are freshmen or sophomores.  It’s rebuilding time for head coach Jerod Haase this season. 

UNC is 11-0 all-time against Stanford, including a 96-72 road victory last season.  The Tar Heels have won 10 consecutive meetings against Pac-12 teams.  The Cardinal are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. ACC opponents.  The Tar Heels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. Pac-12 foes.  UNC is 35-16-2 ATS in its last 53 home games.  Stanford is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less last game.  Take North Carolina Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -1.5 

The Knicks are better than their 4-9 record, while the Magic are worse than their 5-7 record thus far.  I think we are getting value on the Knicks here as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Magic because of the perception that the Magic or better.  But that’s not the case. 

Let’s look at point differential.  The Magic are getting outscored by 7.1 points per game this season, while the Knicks are only getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  And the Magic have played a home-heavy schedule with eight of their first 12 games at home.  The Knicks have played seven of their 13 on the highway. 

The Magic are 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last three seasons.  The Knicks are 18-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 18-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win.  Bet the Knicks Sunday. 

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7.5 

The Brooklyn Nets have reeled off three straight impressive victories and still aren’t getting the respect they deserve.  They won 122-97 at home over the 76ers as 4-point dogs, 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point favorites, and 112-110 at Denver as 8.5-point dogs. 

I realize this is the second of a back-to-back for the Nets, but they had two days off prior to that Denver game, so they won’t be as tired as most teams would.  Plus, the Nets are arguably the deepest team in the league, so they are affected much less by these back-to-backs than most teams. 

The Warriors are in a worse situation.  They are going to be playing without two of the Big Four today.  Stephen Curry will miss significant time after leaving last game with a groin strain.  And Draymond Green is also out with a foot injury.  Not to mention, both Shaun Livingston and DeMarcus Cousins are out.  The Warriors don’t even have a point guard right now. 

The Nets have played the Warriors very tough of late, going 4-0 ATS in their four meetings over the past few seasons, including their 114-120 home loss at 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Golden State.  I like the fact that they are out for revenge here as well. 

The Nets are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 road games, including 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the Nets Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  And they had to go to overtime to beat the Hornets 133-132 at home last night.  It’s safe to say they won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies here. 

The Grizzlies are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  It’s amazing what they are capable of when Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are both healthy and on the floor at the same time.  The Grizzlies are 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS this season. 

The Grizzlies have been at their best at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points per game on average.  They have some of the best home fans in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the 76ers are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 11.7 points per game. 

The Grizzlies have owned this series as well, going 10-1 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers.  Enough said.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday. 

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.  They are coming off a huge 134-111 road victory at Golden State.  I always like fading teams after they play the Warriors, especially after they beat the Warriors.  They always seem to have a letdown the next game. 

And it’s certainly worth noting those weren’t the real Warriors.  Stephen Curry got injured early and was forced to leave the game.  And they were already playing without Draymond Green.  Without those two, the Warriors are just an average team in this league. 

The Clippers are a team that has impressed me thus far.  They are 6-5 SU & 6-5 ATS this season and have been flying under the radar.  They are outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game on the season, and Doc Rivers has gotten the most out of this team.  They are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here so should be sitting on a big effort with the Bucks coming to town. 

The Clippers are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game.  The Bucks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Milwaukee is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  The Clippers won both meetings last season with the Bucks.  Take the Clippers Saturday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +10 

The Brooklyn Nets just don’t get the respect they deserve in the betting markets.  They are in the third year of head coach Kenny Atkinson, and they’ve improved every season.  They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and they should get even deeper now with the healthy return of DeMarre Carroll from an ankle injury tonight.  He hasn’t played yet this season. 

The Nets are off to a 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS start this season.  Only two of those six losses came by double-digits, so they have basically been competitive in every game.  And given how well they’ve played in their last two games, there’s no way they should be double-digit dogs tonight.  They beat Philadelphia 122-97 as 4-point home dogs and won 104-82 at Phoenix as 2-point road favorites.  And now they’ve had two days’ rest since that win over the Suns to get ready for the Nuggets. 

Denver is clearly overvalued now after a 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS start to the season.  The Nuggets are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public due to this start.  This is only the third time they will be a double-digit favorite this season, and the other two were against the Suns and Kings at home.  They could be looking ahead to huge showdowns with the Bucks and Rockets up next. 

The Nets are 27-14 ATS as road underdogs over the last two seasons.  Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years.  The Nets are 9-0 ATS after allowing 90 points or less last game over the past three seasons.  Brooklyn is 10-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over the last two years.  Take the Nets Friday. 

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee -16 

The No. 6 ranked Tennessee Vols are absolutely loaded this season.  They return all five starters from a team that went 26-9 last year and 13-5 in SEC play.  They should be much more than 16-point home favorites over LA-Lafayette tonight.  One magazine I trust has Tennessee as an Elite 8 team and the second-best team in the SEC, and I can’t disagree. 

The Vols return their top six scorers from last year.  They are led by Grant Williams (15.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Admiral Sheffield (13.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG).  They opened their season with a convincing 86-41 victory over Lenoir-Rhyne to get their feet wet.  And they should be prepared to beat down LA-Lafayette tonight. 

I’m shocked this line is only 16 when you consider LA-Lafayette went just 10-21 last season.  And they return just two starters from that squad.  Lafayette is picked by a same magazine to finish 8th of 10 teams in the Patriot League this season.  They stand no chance to compete with Tennessee here on the road. 

The Vols are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. SEC opponents.  Roll with Tennessee Friday.