Winning Sports Picks

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -9.5

The USC Trojans are certainly a team to keep your eye on this season.  Andy Enfield enters Year 3 here with by far his best team yet.  The Trojans didn't lose a single player who started a game in 2014-15.  Their heralded 2014 recruiting class is a year older, and they've added a pair of four-star recruits in forward Benny Boatwright and center Chimezie Metu.

All five returning starters are back in Jordan McClaughlin (12.1 ppg, 4.5 apg), Katin Reinhardt (12.5 ppg, 2.4 rpg), Julian Jacobs (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Elijah Stewart (6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Nikola Jovanovic (12.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg).  This is a core group that improved as the season went on, but suffered and absurd amount of close losses in Pac-12 play.  Look for those losses to start turning into wins in 2015-16.

I like what I saw from USC in its opener, an 83-45 beat down of San Diego as 12.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 25.5 points.  McLaughlin (20), Steward (14), Jacobs (11) and Boatwright (10) all scored in double figures to lead the way for the Trojans.  But the defense was even more impressive, limiting San Diego to 15-of-61 (24.6%) shooting.

This is a massive letdown spot for Monmouth.  It beat UCLA 84-81 on the road as 15-point underdogs in its opener, and it is clearly overvalued after that result.  The Bruins gave the game away by committing 23 turnovers despite outrebounding Monmouth 60-37 for the game.  Rebounding could be an issue again for Monmouth against USC, which outrebounded San Diego 55-36.  UCLA also escaped with an 88-83 win over Cal Poly last night, so it's clear that the Bruins aren't great this year.

Plays on a favorite (USC) - after allowing 50 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on a favorite (USC) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with USC Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -5

It's time to buy low on the Houston Rockets tonight as they come into this game with three straight losses straight up and against the spread.  It's also time to sell high on the Boston Celtics as they come in off a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS stretch. I believe the Rockets are simply undervalued here as only 5-point home favorites after these recent results.

But the Rockets have been playing without Dwight Howard for almost half of the season in the early going, and they're 1-3 without him.  They are allowing an average of 57.3 points in the paint in their last three games without him compared to 48.7 in the six games he's played.  The good news is that Howard is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so the defense is going to be much better.

Houston has won eight of its last 10 meetings with Boston, and it is 4-0 in its last four home meetings.  Its last four home wins have come by 14, 24, 12 and 16 points, or by an average of 16.5 points per game.  I believe another double-digit home win for the Rockets is in store tonight.

Boston is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Celtics are 47-77 ATS in its last 124 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  Houston is 16-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Rockets going 4-0 ATS.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -7

The UCLA Bruins will be highly motivated for a win today after getting upset by Monmouth 81-84 in their opener.  They committed 23 turnovers and only forced 7 to essentially give the game away.  Look for the Bruins to shore up those turnover issues and to come back with a much better effort Sunday.

This is a UCLA team that won 22 games last year and advanced to the Sweet 16.  They have three starters back from that team in Bryce Alford (15.4 ppg, 4.9 apg), Tony Parker (11.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Isaac Hamilton (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg).  Parker is going to be one of the best players in the country this season.  He had 19 points and 19 rebounds against Monmouth.

Cal Poly is coming off a 72-74 loss at UNLV.  It trailed by double-digits in the second half before coming back to make it close late, which I believe is keeping this line against UCLA smaller than it should be.  The Mustangs returned three starters this season from a team that went just 13-16 last year.

Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  UCLA is 31-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Mustangs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.  UCLA is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games overall.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +5

The Utah Jazz conclude a tough 4-game road trip with a game against the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They have opened 0-3 on this trip and they do not want to go back home without a win.  Look for the Jazz to be laying it all on the line tonight against the Hawks as a result.

Utah may be 0-3 on this trip, but it could easily be 2-1.  It only lost 114-118 at Cleveland as 5.5-point dogs and 91-92 at Miami as 3.5-point dogs.  Those are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.  The Jazz ran out of gas in playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days in a 93-102 loss at Orlando last time out.  But they've had a day to recoup before this game.

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They already have four wins by 6 points or less this year.  They were without head coach Mike Budenholzer for family reasons in a 93-106 loss to Boston in their last game on Friday.  They are expected to be without Budenholzer again tonight, and they certainly miss his leadership and X's and O's.

Utah is also going to be motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta.  The last three have come by 6, 3 and 2 points, so they've been very close.  In fact, six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well.

The Jazz are 36-23 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  Utah is 20-9 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in over the past two years.  The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -5.5

The Washington Wizards are in the midst of a 3-game losing streak to Atlanta, Boston and Oklahoma City with two of those games coming on the road.  Those are three of the better teams in the NBA.  It's safe to say the Wizards are going to be motivated for a victory when they host the Orlando Magic tonight.

This is a great spot for the Wizards, who have had three full days off since that Oklahoma City loss.  This will also be just their 2nd game in 7 days.  The same cannot be said for the Magic, who will be by far the more tired team heading into this one.

Orlando beat Utah last night, so it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This will also be the 8th game in 12 days for the Magic, which is just absolutely brutal.  I look for them to come out flat in this game and to not be able to match the intensity and energy of the Wizards.

Washington has simply owned Orlando, going 9-0 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Wizards have won each of their seven home meetings with Orlando all by 5 points or more.  They have won those seven meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game.  I fully expect them to win their 8th straight home meeting with the Magic, and for it to come by 6-plus points with ease.  Take the Wizards Saturday.

20* CBB 2015 Season Opening BEST BET on UNLV -6.5

The UNLV Rebels were much better than their 18-15 record and 8-10 mark in Mountain West play indicated last year. They lost three times to league champ San Diego State by a combined 11 points.  They covered 11 of their last 13 games to close out the season, and I look for that momentum to carry over into 2015.

Head coach Dave Rice is on the hot seat as his team didn't live up to expectations last year, but he's still 89-47 in his four seasons here.  He also delivered another Top 10 recruiting class nationally.  Freshman forward Derrick Jones chose UNLV over UConn, Kentucky and Kansas.  Fellow freshman Stephen Zimmerman is a five-star center from Las Vegas' Bishop Gorman High and a Top 10 recruit.

The Rebels do have two returning starters too in guard Patrick McGraw (9.6 ppg, 2.7 apg), F/C Goodluck Okonoboh (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpb), and a couple of key reserves ready for bigger roles in sophomore guard Jordan Cornish and sophomore forward Dwayne Morgan.  Both players will see increased minutes due to the losses of Rashad Vaughn and Christian Wood, who left early for the NBA.

Cal Paly went just 13-16 last season and is only picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big West this year.  They do return three starters, but none of them averaged more than 11.5 points per game last year.  This team is simply going to be overmatched talent-wise and will struggled to keep this game close.

UNLV does have a nice home-court advantage as it went 13-4 and outscoring opponents by 11.8 points per game inside the Thomas & Mack Center.  Cal Poly went just 6-12 on the road last year where it scored only 58.3 points per game.  Cal Poly is 0-7 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents.  Roll with UNLV Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -10

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a team that I have my eye on coming into the season as being one of the most underrated in the country.  This is a team that went just 13-19 last year but was much better than its record would indicate as nine of its 18 losses came by 6 points or less.

Time and time again, head coach Rick Ray made mistakes in the final five minutes of games.  Enter Ben Howland, who brings a strong 401-206 career record as a head coach to Starkville.  He is going to be harder on his players than Ray was, and he's a huge upgrade in X's and O's.  His demise at UCLA had more to do with off-the-court problems than his team's actual play.

Howland steps into a great situation with four returning starters, including three seniors in Craig Sword (11.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg), Gavin Ware (10.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg) and Fred Thomas (9.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg).  Also back are I.J. Ready (8.2 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Trvis Daniels (6.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).

So, nearly the entire team returns from last year.  Plus, the Bulldogs added a blue-chip recruit in Malik Newman who is the type of talent that they haven't had since the Rick Stansbury era.  Newman is a McDonald's All-American and Top 10 national recruit.  He chose Mississippi State because he was impressed with what Howland was able to due with Russell Westbrook at UCLA.  Newman may be on a minutes limit tonight because he's recovering from a toe injury, but it's not going to matter.

Eastern Washington comes into 2015-16 overvalued due to its 26-9 season and NCAA Tournament appearance last year.  But four starters are gone from that team, including Tyler Harvey (23.1 ppg), who left a year early for the NBA.  Also gone are three other starters who averaged 9.7, 9.7 and 7.7 points per game, respectively.  It's safe to say that the Eagles are rebuilding in 2015 with just one starter back.

Howland is 81-51 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in all games he has coached with his teams winning by 17.9 points per game on average.  Bet Mississippi State Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -6.5

The Chicago Bulls have had three full days off in between games since their 111-88 road win at Philadelphia on Monday.  They will be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor tonight because of all this time off, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

Chicago will also have extra incentive coming into this one after suffering its worst loss of the season in a 105-130 setback at Charlotte on November 3.  The Hornets just couldn't miss, hitting 14 of-23 (60.9%) from 3-point range in that game.  That's obviously not going to happen again here, especially with the Bulls extra motivated to put forth a much better defensive effort this time around.

The Hornets are overvalued here due to winning and covering in each of their last two games.  They beat Minnesota on the road 104-95 as the Timberwolves were without three starters in Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins and Kevin Garnett.  The Timberwolves haven't won at home yet this season, either.  Then they were lucky to beat the Knicks 95-93 at home last time out as Kristaps Porzingis' potential game-winning 3-pointer was ruled to have come after the buzzer.

Chicago is 28-11 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, including 18-6 ATS when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more during this same time frame.  The Hornets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.  The Bulls are 15-5 straight up in their last 20 home meetings with the Hornets.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +1

The Atlanta Hawks are overvalued due to their 8-2 start to the season.  They should not be road favorites over the Boston Celtics, who I have pegged as one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

The Celtics are just 3-4, but they have played a tough schedule with their losses coming against Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (twice).  But the Celctis' three wins have all come by 16 points or more, and they are actually outscoring teams by 3.1 points per game in spite of their losing record.  The Hawks are only outscoring teams by 4.3 points per game with their 8-2 record for comparison's sake.

As you can see, Atlanta has already played 10 games this season, while Boston has only played seven.  That makes the Celtics the fresher team right now as this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Atlanta will actually be playing its 7th game in 11 days.

The Celtics are 28-8 in their last 36 home meetings with the Hawks, including 6-2 in their last eight.  Boston is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Celtics are 70-46 ATS in their last 116 games following a home loss by 10 or more points.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened the season 3-0 and were rolling, but then they hit a tough part of their schedule.  They had to play a stretch of four games in five nights, which didn't go well for them.

After beating the Nuggets 117-93 at home to start that stretch, the Thunder lost 105-110 at Houston the next night.  They also lost 98-103 at home to Toronto before falling 98-104 at Chicago.  They had their chances to win all three games, but instead they have lost three straight coming in.  Now they have had two days off after last playing on Thursday and will come back refreshed and ready to go tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are 3-3 and have played decently, but their three wins have come against the worst three teams they've played in the Blazers (twice) and Kings (without DeMarcus Cousins).  Their three losses have come to Dallas (95-111), the Clippers (96-102) and Detroit (92-100) against the three best teams they've played.

The Thunder won three of four meetings with the Suns last year, including a 112-88 win in their first home contest as similar 7.5-point favorites.  Oklahoma City is 142-103 ATS in tis last 245 games following a loss.  Look for an inspired effort from the Thunder that leads to a double-digit home victory.  Take the Thunder Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +18

The Golden State Warriors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They won their first four games by a combined 100 points, so they have set expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to from the betting public and the oddsmakers.

I faded the Warriors with success in their last game Wednesday against the Los Angeles Clippers as they needed a 4th quarter comeback to win 112-108 at home as 7.5-point favorites.  They formed a rivalry with the Clippers in the offseason with all of their trash talk back and forth, and they are now in a prime letdown spot off that big win on National TV.

The Denver Nuggets have shown me enough this season to know that they can stay within this ridiculous 18-point spread.  They have actually played their two best games on the road this year, winning 105-85 at Houston as 10.5-point underdogs and 120-109 at Los Angeles (Lakers) as 3-point dogs.

The Nuggets have played the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  They are 3-3 straight up in their last six meetings.  More importantly, they have only lost one of the last 51 meetings by more than 15 points and by more than this 18-point margin.  That's a ridiculous 50-1 system backing Denver pertaining to this spread.  Roll with the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are highly motivated for a victory Friday night when they host the Atlanta Hawks.  They are one of four winless teams this season, but they have already played the defending champion Warriors twice.  Look for the Pelicans to come out with the attitude that they're not going to be denied of their first victory as I fully expect their strongest performance of the season here.

The Pelicans are shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, which isn't going to last.  Antony Davis, who shot 53.5 percent last year and averaged 24.4 points per game, is only shooting 37.9 percent this year.  Eric Gordon (36.7%), Jrue Holiday (37%) & Ryan Anderson (39.7%) are all shooting below 40 percent.  All four of these guys are good shooters, and it's not going to last.  They'll break out of the slump tonight.

Atlanta is overvalued right now due to winning five straight since a season-opening 94-106 home loss to Detroit.  The Hawks have won three times by six points or less during this streak, so they've been fortunate in close games.  They've also played a very easy schedule with the Knicks, Hornets (twice), Heat and Nets.  This will be their first matchup against a Western Conference team this season.

The Pelicans have owned the Hawks in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups.  They've won two games on the road, and in their lone home meeting last year, they won 115-100 as identical 3-point underdogs.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS off two straight games where it had 10 or more steals over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in home games on Friday nights over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 12.9 points per game.  Look for the Pelicans to feed off of their home crowd tonight as they cheer them on to their first victory.  Take the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +15

The Cleveland Cavaliers are just concerned with winning games right now, not by how much they win by.  That's because they are still missing three key players in Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith due to injury.  Asking them to win by 16-plus points to cover the spread against the 76ers tonight is asking too much.

Cleveland needed a 26-17 fourth quarter to put away a bad New York Knicks team 96-86 on Wednesday night.  Four of its first five games have been decided by 10 points or less, including a 107-100 win at Philadelphia as 13-point favorites just four nights ago.  That close game against the 76ers was par for the course in this series.

Indeed, the 76ers have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in recent meetings.  All three meetings last year were decided by 13 points or less.  The Cavs have won three of the last four meetings, but they have come only by 7, 1 and 13 points.  The 76ers won 95-92 in one of them as well.

Philadelphia's 100-107 loss to Cleveland was a very good effort, and it came back with perhaps an even better performance in its last game.  The 76ers only lost 87-91 at Milwaukee as 8.5-point underdogs on Wednesday night.  Rookie T.J. McConnell took advantage of his first start at point guards, scoring seven points with 12 assists and nine rebounds.  Rookie Jahlil Okafor has lived up to his No. 2 pick status, averaging 20.3 points on 54.8 percent shooting.  Nerlens Noel has chipped in 13.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (CLEVELAND) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1996.   Philadelphia is 91-64 ATS in its last 155 games as an underdog of 10 points or more.  The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +1

The Boston Celtics are going to be highly-motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight to three very good teams in Toronto, San Antonio and Indiana (by 2 on the road).  They are last in the league with just 19.0 points per game in the 1st quarter this year, so expect them to be focused from the start in this one.

The Washington Wizards are in a massive letdown spot and are fortunate to be 3-1 this season.  Their three wins have all come by 5 points or less to Orlando, Milwaukee and San Antonio.  Bradley Beal hit a game-winning 3-pointer right before the buzzer to beat the Spurs on Wednesday, and off such a big win the Wizards will come out flat tonight against a Celtics team that wants it more.

The home team won all three meetings between these teams last year.  The Celtics won 101-93 as 3.5-point dogs in their only home meeting.  They also lost a heartbreaking 133-132 (OT) as 9-point underdogs on the road.  The Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, but their record hasn't reflected that yet, which is why they are undervalued here as home dogs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Washington is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games off a win by 6 points or less.  Take the Celtics Friday.

20* Thunder/Bulls TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City +1

The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be highly motivated for a victory after losing each of their last two games by five points apiece to Houston and Toronto.  That's why I'm not concerned that they are playing a 4-in-5 situation here, especially this early in the season as teams don't get tired this early.

The Chicago Bulls are a completely different team now under Fred Hoiberg.  They are no longer concerned with being defensive stoppers, which was evident when they allowed 130 points to the Charlotte Hornets of all teams the other night.  They are just 1-4 ATS on the season and overvalued here as favorites against a superior team in the Thunder.

While the Thunder are a dangerous team when they're at full strength like they are right now, the Bulls are dealing with an injury to their best player in Derrick Rose.  The guy can't even see straight, so he's not himself.  Rose is only averaging 10.2 points per game on 33.9% shooting in nearly 31 minutes per game.  Joakim Noah is only playing 19 minutes per game and averaging 2.0 points because he's a misfit now in Hoiberg's system.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, in November games are 66-28 (70.2%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there's value in backing these supposed 'tired' teams this early in the year.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Side & Total PARLAY on Los Angeles +8/UNDER 220.5

Reasons for Los Angeles:

Doc Rivers came out and said that you have to have some luck to win an NBA Championship.  The Golden State Warriors blew his comments way out of proportion and bashed the Clippers in the offseason, saying they couldn't handle their business.  Look for the Clippers players to come to Doc's defense and to take it personally tonight when they travel to face the Warriors.

There's no question that the Warriors are overvalued tonight due to their 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start.  They are now laying too many points against what I believe to be their stiffest challenger in the Western Conference in the Clippers, who are also 4-0 on the season.

The Clippers have stayed within 8 points of the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-1 system backing them pertaining to this 8-point spread tonight.  Los Angeles is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 road games after two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Clippers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games overall.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Because these teams have formed a rivalry with their verbal jabs in the offseason, the defensive intensity in this game is going to be very high.  It's also going to be played on a National TV stage on ESPN, so look for both teams to really lay it all on the line defensively in this one.

Both teams are defending very well this season.  Los Angeles is giving up 99.2 points per game on 39.7% shooting, while Golden State is allowing 94.0 points per game on 38.0% shooting.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Clippers are 9th in defensive efficiency this year.

Each of the last three meetings in this series have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  They have combined for 216, 204 and 186 points, which is an average of 202.0 combined points per game, which is 18.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 220.5.  In fact, seven of the last nine meetings have seen 216 or fewer combined points.

The UNDER is 10-1-2 in Warriors last 13 home games.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Warriors last 22 games overall.  The Clippers are 12-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 12-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 70% or better over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Charlotte Hornets are hungry for their first taste of victory tonight.  They haven't played poorly, but they've been up against a tough schedule in the early going during their 0-3 start.  They have also been unfortunate in a couple close games.

The Hornets lost 94-104 at Miami before falling 94-97 at Atlanta in its first two games.  It then lost 92-94 at home to Atlanta in its last contest.  Kemba Walker had a chance to force overtime in each of the last two losses late, but missed both shots.

The Hornets have only shot 39.1% and are allowing 44.7% shooting, so the fact that they've been close while shooting the ball that poorly shows a lot about what this team is capable of.  Now they take on a Chicago Bulls team that is vulnerable.

Derrick Rose can't even see, so he's not himself and has had to be more of a facilitator this season.  The Bulls have gone 3-1, but three of their four games were decided by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout win came against arguably the worst team in the NBA in the Brooklyn Nets.

Chicago is 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 10.4 points per game in this spot.  The Hornets have actually won three of the last five meetings in this series.  Look for an inspired effort from them as they get their first win tonight, though we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Hornets Tuesday.

15* Grizzlies/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +9.5

The Golden State Warriors are overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start that has produced a 3-0 ATS record as well. They're already a favorite of the betting public, so they are going to consistently have a few more points tacked onto their lines.  I believe they are laying too many points to the Grizzlies tonight.

While the Warriors are 3-0, they have faced a pretty easy schedule thus far.  They have already played the Pelicans twice, who are the most banged-up team in the NBA right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They also played the 0-3 Rockets, who have injuries of their own.

But now they face a motivated Memphis team that is healthy and one of the few teams in the West that matches up well with the Warriors.  Remember, the Grizzlies had a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors in the playoffs last year, but then lost three straight to fall in six games.

The Grizzlies can hang with the Warriors because they play great defense, especially at the all-important guard positions with Mike Conley and Courtney Lee, who match up as well with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as any backcourt in the NBA.  The Grizzlies held the Warriors to just 97.8 points per game in the playoff series last year, which is absolutely terrific.

Memphis is 101-67 ATS in its last 168 vs. good defensive teams that allow 43% shooting or better.  The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Golden State.  Memphis is 144-106 ATS in its last 250 games following a win by 10 points or more.  Roll with the Grizzlies Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +13.5

The Philadelphia 76ers were booed off their home floor in a 71-99 loss to Utah on October 30 as they dropped to 0-2 on the season.  I look for them to come back with a very strong effort today off that embarrassment, especially since they've had two days to correct their mistakes.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are overvalued right now because they have opened the season by going a perfect 3-0 against the spread.  They are a public team anyways because they have Lebron James, and now they are laying way too many points on the road tonight as 13.5-point favorites here.

Philadelphia will get up for the defending Eastern Conference champions.  The 76ers played the Cavaliers extremely tough last year.  They went 1-2 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 95-92 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone home meetings, lost by 13 as 17-point road dogs, and lost 87-86 as 17-point road dogs.  They know they can be competitive with this team tonight.

The 76ers are 90-64 ATS in their last 154 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Cavaliers are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 Monday games.  Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

These teams just played two nights ago on October 30 with the Hawks coming away with a 97-94 home victory.  This is one of my favorite situations as the Hornets get a shot at revenge just two nights later, this time at home, as an underdogs to boot.

The Hornets are highly motivated for their first win of the season.  They have played two tough road games at Miami and at Atlanta, and now they get to play at home for the first time this year Sunday.  Look for them to take care of business on their home floor.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently.  Indeed, the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Hornets won 115-100 and 122-119 over the Hawks in their two meetings at home last year, and that was an Atlanta team that won 60 games and was better than the 2015-16 version is.  The Hornets are a better team this year than last with the players they added in the offseason.

Plays against any team (ATLANTA) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Hornets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5

This is a rematch from the Kings' 104-111 home loss to the Clippers in the season opener.  Getting a chance to face the Clippers again this quickly is a positive for the Kings, who will be out for revenge tonight.  Los Angeles closed that game on an 11-4 run to pull out the victory, and Sacramento would like to return the favor.

I was impressed with how tough the Kings played the Clippers in that game despite shooting just 43.6% from the field and allowing 52.5% shooting as they still had a chance to win in the end.  Then they came back and dominated the Lakers 132-114 last night and shot 51.5%.  George Karl has this team playing well in the early going.

Sacramento is 38-18 ATS in its last 56 road games off a home win over a division rival.  The Clippers are 28-49 ATS in their last 77 after two consecutive covers as a favorite, only winning by 0.8 points per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in its previous game.  The Clippers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Roll with the Kings Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a win after starting the season 0-2.  They've played some pretty tough competition in the early going with games against Toronto and Memphis, two of the better teams from their respective conferences.

But now they take a step down in competition and face the Utah Jazz, who are a fringe playoff contender in the West.  The Pacers will be fresh and ready to go after having yesterday off, while the Jazz will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing the 76ers on the road yesterday.

The Pacers have owned the Jazz in this series, going 6-1 in the last seven meetings with their only loss coming in overtime.  All six wins have come by three points or more as well.  Take the Pacers Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets -4

I was on the Denver Nuggets in their opener when they won 105-85 at Houston as 11-point underdogs.  I'm going to ride them again in their second game of the season as I still believe they're way undervalued right now as only 4-point home favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The loss of Ty Lawson is overblown for the Nuggets.  They replaced him with a player who is going to be way more important to the franchise in rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who played professionally in China last year.  Mudiay had 17 points and nine assists in the opener against the Rockets.

But there's still plenty of talent on this team.  Kenneth Faried is back and had 18 points and nine rebounds in the opener.  Danilo Gallinari is finally healthy and led the way with 23 points and eight boards against the Rockets.  Joffrey Lauvergne is a guy to keep your eye on as he had 11 points and seven boards.  Plus, Will Barton, Jameer Nelson, Darrell Arthur, Gary Harris and Randy Foye provide some really nice depth.

If it's not the Philadelphia 76ers, then the Minnesota Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA this season.  They won their opener against the Lakers 112-111 but had to erase a double-digit second half deficit to do so.  They were inspired in that game playing for former head coach Flip Saunders, who passed away at 60 years old.  But this team is not very good.

Minnesota has a decent future with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, but for now those are the only two players that you can be excited about.  The Timberwolves start two washed-up veterans in Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince, who combined for six points in the opener.  Ricky Rubio scored a career-high 28 points, but don't expect that to continue as he's never been known as a scorer.  Kevin Martin takes too many bad shots and hijacks the offense.

Denver won three out of four meetings with Minnesota last year with all three wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Nuggets are 11-2 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on one days' rest.  Denver is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5

The Boston Celtics finished last season strong and got even better in the offseason.  It led to one of the best preseason performances in the NBA.  The Celtics went 6-1 in preseason and ranked 2nd in the league in efficiency, outscoring teams by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Thunder were better.

The solid play carried over into the regular season opener as the Celtics topped the 76ers 112-95 at home as 12.5-point favorites.  They held Philadelphia to just 40.5% shooting and forced 22 turnovers.  Now they take a step up in competition here, but I look for them to get it done as only 2-point home favorites over the Raptors.

I'm also pretty high on Toronto this year, but the Celtics will likely prove to be the better team in the end.  The Raptors did won 106-99 at home over the Pacers in their opener, but had to erase a double-digit deficit to do so.  They turned the ball over 20 times in that game and the Celtics will feast on their poor ball handling in this one to create plenty of easy scoring opportunities in transition.

Boston won each of its final two meetings with Toronto last year.  The Raptors are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Boston is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 after playing a game as a home favorite.  The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Boston is 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 home games and 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  Take the Celtics Friday.

15* Mavs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +11

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be playing some inspired basketball in this one.  They are not happy with the Los Angeles Clippers, who stole DeAndre Jordan back from them in the offseason.  I look for these Mavericks to take it personally and to come out with a great effort in this one.

I was very impressed with the Mavericks last night in their 111-95 road win at Phoenix.  They had eight players score in double figures in a complete team effort.  The Mavericks also got a chance to rest a little for this game after building a 27-point lead in the third quarter.

Los Angeles was in a dogfight with Sacramento on the road last night and won't be as fresh coming in.  The Clippers needed to go on an 11-4 run to close out the game to win 111-104.  They aren't going to have what it takes to put away the Mavs by double-digits in this one.

The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are a mash unit right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They are without two starters in Tyreke Evans and Omer Asik, as well as key role players in Quincy Pondexter and Norris Cole.  The statuses of Jrue Holiday and Dante Cunningham are also in question.

The Pelicans were thoroughly outplayed in their 95-111 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night, trailing by nearly 20 points for a good portion of the game.  Now they have to play a second of a back-to-back with a short-handed club, which won't be easy.

Everyone is writing off the Portland Trail Blazers, but I believe they are going to be better than expected this year.  They ranked 14th in the preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 1.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Pelicans ranked just 25th in efficiency, getting outscored by 3.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Blazers still have one of the best players in the NBA in Damian Lillard running the show.  They added some established veterans in Gerald Henderson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis.  Plus C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard are both ready for bigger roles this year.  These players are going to be motivated from the start to prove their doubters wrong.

"Coming into this season, we're going to be underdogs and people may disrespect us, people may look at us like we can't compete with them," Lillard told the team's official website. "We've got to take that to heart. We've got to be offended by that and we've got to play like it."

The Blazers have won five straight meetings with the Pelicans, and they are 8-0 in their last eight home meetings with their last loss coming in 2010.  The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +11

The Denver Nuggets are getting no love from oddsmakers in the opener as double-digit road underdogs to the Houston Rockets.  I believe the Nuggets are going to be better than expected under first-year head coach Mike Malone, who was one of the hottest candidates on the market.

Denver may come away with the best player in the draft when it's all said and done in Emmanuel Mudiay, who takes over at the point for the departed Ty Lawson.  This is a team that returns some very good veterans in Kenneth Faried, a healthy Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.  They are out to prove their doubters wrong this season, starting tonight.

"I love challenges," said Mudiay, who bypassed college to spend last year playing pro ball in China. "My team gives me a lot of confidence and has a lot of trust in me."

"I believe we have a chance to make the playoffs this year," Faried said. "I 100 percent believe that - 110 percent. I don't care what anybody has to say about it."

Houston is not at full strength right now and shouldn't be this heavy of a favorite as a result.  It is going to be without key big men Dwight Howard and Donatas Motiejunas, who are both listed as doubtful.  Look for the Nuggets to clean up on the boards and to get some easy second-chance points in this one that will help keep them in the game for four quarters.

The Nuggets went 4-3 in the preseason while the Rockets went just 3-5.  The Nuggets actually finished 12th in the NBA in preseason in efficiency, outscoring teams by 3.5 points per 100 possessions.  The Rockets are just 18th in efficiency, getting outscored by 0.7 points per 100 posssessions.  Houston is 53-79 ATS in its last 132 games as a favorite of 10 points or more.  Bet the Nuggets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1

The Utah Jazz were quietly one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch last year.  They had the sixth-best winning percentage (65.5) in the NBA after the All-Star Break, which has them primed to be a dark horse in the Western Conference this year.

Gordon Heyward and Derrick Favors are entering their primes.  This team really took off when Rudy Gobert was inserted into the starting linuep after trading Enes Kanter.  Gobert averaged 11.1 points, 13.8 rebounds and 2.6 blocks after the All-Star Break, and his presence makes this one of the best defenses in the NBA.

The Pistons are coming off an impressive 106-94 victory last night on the road over the Hawks.  But this is not a very deep team and all five of their starters played at least 34 minutes last night.  I'll gladly fade them in this second of a back-to-back situation to open the season.

The Jazz are 17-2 int heir last 19 meetings with the Pistons, including 8-1 in Detroit.  The Pistons are 59-91 ATS in their last 150 home games when playing the second of a back-to-back.  The Jazz are 9-1 ATS int their last 10 trips to Detroit.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors 2015 NBA Season Opener on New Orleans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to want revenge on the Golden State Warriors from getting swept in the playoffs last year.  I look for them to give the Warriors all they want in the season opener and to easily cover this double-digit spread, possibly pulling off the upset.

The Warriors will receive their championship rings tonight.  While Steve Kerr will be present, he won't be coaching the team due to his back.  Assistant coach Luke Walton will be taking his place on the sidelines.  I don't expect the team to respond to Walton like they would to Kerr early in the season.  The ceremony will be a distraction to these players, too.

Alvin Gentry, who was the Warriors' assistant coach last year, is now the head coach of the Pelicans.  If there's anybody who would know how to slow down the Warriors, it's certainly Gentry.  He will have the Pelicans prepared to take down the defending champs in this one.

New Orleans is certainly a team on the rise.  It has arguably the best player in the NBA in Anthony Davis, who averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and shot 54.0 percent against the Warriors in the playoffs last year.  Eric Gordon was second in the NBA in 3-point shooting last year at 44.8 percent.  Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday are healthy to open the season, and they added veterans Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to help bolster the roster.

The Pelicans are 28-14 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Golden State.  Each of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less, including four by 10 or fewer.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -2.5

Down 2-1 heading into Game 4, the Golden State Warriors know that they need a victory or this series is likely over.  I fully expect them to get it.  The first three games could have gone either way as all three were within five points at the end of regulation.

Draymond Green said it best yesterday in a press conference.  His team needs to play harder and with a sense of urgency, and I believe you will see that from the Warriors in Game 4 after seemingly losing the battle to get every loose ball in Game 3.  They will come to play tonight.

The Cavaliers being up 2-1 is certainly a surprise to most.  Obviously, they are going to show up again in Game 4, but I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency as much as they have the past two games, and as much as the Warriors will be tonight.

The Warriors were down 2-1 against the Grizzlies in the conference semifinals.  It was the same situation as this as they lost Game 2 and Game 3.  They went on to win the next three games in blowout fashion.  The Grizzlies are a similar physical team to the Cavaliers, and the Warriors made the proper adjustments in that series, and I believe they will in this series as well.

Golden State is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss.  Bet the Warriors in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Warriors/Cavs Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Golden State -1.5

The Golden State Warriors have not played up to their potential in the first two games of this series.  They may have started to believe the hype that this series was over due to the injuries to the Cavaliers coming into Game 2.

That was a big reason I was on Cleveland last game, but I'm going with the Warriors in Game 3.  They will be the ones who come out and play with a sense of urgency tonight that they haven't played with yet in this series.  Meanwhile, there's no way the Cavs can match the effort they played with on Sunday.

Stephen Curry and the rest of the Warriors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 2.  They shot just 39.8% from the field with Curry going 5-for-23.  Steve Kerr will make the proper adjustments, and I look for the Warriors to get back to playing their up-tempo ways that have made them the best offensive team in the league all season.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 71-33 (68.3%) ATS since 1996.  The Warriors are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games following a S.U. loss.  The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Warriors in Game 3 Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +8

The Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 represent my favorite play of the entire NBA postseason up to this point.  This is a must-win game for them as they cannot afford to go back to Cleveland down 0-2 if they want to win this series.

There is some serious value in getting the Cavs as 8-point underdogs here.  They were only 6-point dogs in Game 1 and forced overtime.  Now, we are getting an extra two points with them only because Kyrie Irving is out for the series after getting injured in Game 1.

Well, the Cavaliers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  They have heard the noise through the media that this series is over because Irving is out.  You can bet that Lebron James and company will be using that noise as motivation in Game 2 here tonight.

Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team  (75% or better) playing a good team (60% to 75%) are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

20* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Cleveland +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are getting little respect heading into this series.  They are +200 underdogs to win the series, and 6-point underdogs in Game 1.  I believe the value is clearly with the Cavaliers in this one.

While I agree with the Warriors being favored in Game 1 and for the series, I just feel that this number is too big.  The Warriors have been the best team in the NBA this season, but they don't have a single player on their 15-man roster that has ever been to the NBA Finals.  Nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1.

The Cavaliers have a tremendous leader in Lebron James who will be going to his 5th straight NBA Finals.  His confidence and temperament will rub off on his teammates in Game 1. 

While the Cavs did get to go through an easy Eastern Conference to get here, you cannot ignore the fact that they are 46-11 since mid-January.  They have won seven straight playoff games over the Bulls and Hawks, which is no small feat, either.

Cleveland is 24-10 ATS off five straight games where it allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  It has morphed into an elite defensive team in these playoffs.  Holding the Hawks to less than 42% shooting for four straight games is mighty impressive.  The Cavaliers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Hawks/Cavaliers Game 4 No-Brainer on Atlanta +7.5

The Atlanta Hawks showed some fight in Game 3 and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to overtime.  They aren't going to give in in Game 4, and I like their chances of staying within 7.5 points of the Cavs in this elimination game.

Kevin Love is obviously out, but Kyrie Irving missed last game and is questionable to play tonight with a knee injury.  The Cavs would be wise to let him rest another game considering they are up 3-0 in this series.

What really could hurt the Cavaliers is that Lebron James is as sore as he's been all season.  "I'm feeling all right," he said, forcing a smile that showed he wasn't being entirely truthful. "I've been better, but I've been worse. I think I've been worse."

Atlanta is 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season.  It is coming back to win by an average of 16.2 points per game in this spot.  The Hawks are also 15-3 ATS when playing with double revenge against an opponent this season.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 No-Brainer on Golden State -4.5

This series is over.  The Golden State Warriors made a statement with a 35-point win in Game 3.  The Rockets also made a statement that they were going to pack it in.  With no motivation now, I look for the Rockets to get blown out again in Game 4.

The Warriors showed that they were vulnerable in losing back-to-back games to Memphis.  However, they have responded in a big way since.  They have now won six straight playoff games with four of those victories coming by 13 points or more.  They are proving that they are the best team in the NBA and that their regular season success was no joke.

Golden State is 24-8 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Golden State is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.  Bet the Warriors Monday.

20* Hawks/Cavs Game 3 No-Brainer on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing solid value as big road underdogs to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  Everyone is pretty much looking forward to a Warriors/Cavs NBA Finals, but I guarantee the Hawks have different ideas even after losing the first two games of this series.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 31-11 (73.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Atlanta is 14-3 ATS when playing with double revenge, two straight losses vs. opponent this season.  While everyone is counting them out, I believe the Hawks have other plans tonight.  Bet Atlanta in Game 3 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Rockets Game 3 No-Brainer on Golden State PK

The Golden State Warriors smell blood in the water.  They are fortunate to be up 2-0 in this series after winning the first two games at home by a combined five points.  They certainly feel like there's no pressure on them now and can come out and play freely tonight.

The Rockets are absolutely devastated.  They had their chances to win the first two games, and now they know that this series is all but over and it's just not their time.  I look for a lackluster effort from them tonight after blowing the first two games down the stretch.

Plays on road favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -1

The Atlanta Hawks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2 heading back to Cleveland.  I look for them to get the job done at home tonight and to even this series at one game apiece.

The Cavaliers got an unworldly performance out of J.R. Smith in Game 1 that they're not going to get again.  He scored a career playoff high 28 points in Game 1, connecting on eight 3-pointers.  He single-handedly won the opener for them.

Atlanta really did not play well in Game 1, which was a rarity for the Hawks at home.  They still had their chances in an 88-97 loss, but Smith's surge proved to be too much.  The Hawks are 40-8 at home this season, so I just cannot foresee them losing back-to-back games on their home floor.

The Hawks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  The Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing Atlanta.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

15* Rockets/Warriors Game 1 No-Brainer on Golden State -10

The Houston Rockets have had only one day of rest following their Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday.  They haven't had ample time to prepare for Golden State, and they will be at a disadvantage because of it.

Even though this is the Western Conference Finals, I believe this is a letdown spot for the Rockets.  They came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Clippers last series, and it's only human nature for them to take a little extra time to celebrate and to not come out with their best effort in Game 1.

Golden State, meanwhile, has had three days off since putting away Memphis 108-95 on the road in Game 6.  The Warriors have been fast starters in their two series.  They beat the Pelicans 106-99 in Game 1 of their first series in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They also beat Memphis 101-86 at home in Game 1 last series.

Golden State is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in home games versus good foul drawing teams that attempt 27 or more free throws/game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on three or more days rest.  These three trends combine for a 23-2 system backing Golden State.  Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.

20* Clippers/Rockets Game 7 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2

After giving away Game 6, many have counted out the Los Angeles Clippers.  However, the oddsmakers believe they'll bounce back and come up clutch in Game 7 by listing them as the favorite, and I couldn't agree more.

Doc Rivers is one of the best head coaches in the league.  He will get his players to respond in a big way today, just as he did in the first round when the Clippers trailed the Spurs 3-2 and had to win Game 6 on the road to extend the series.  They obviously went on to win Game 7 at home as well.

Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points are 57-24 (70.4%) ATS since 1996.  Plays on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 45-14 (76.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.  Los Angeles is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* Cavs/Bulls Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -2

Pau Gasol is expected to make his return from a hamstring injury tonight in this do-or-die Game 6.  I believe his presence on the floor will push the Bulls over the top and have them forcing a Game 7 against the Cavaliers.

Chicago has really missed Gasol's offense the past three games as they've shot 37.8%, 36.0% and 39.5%, respectively.  They still managed to go 1-2 with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points even with those poor shooting percentages.

Cleveland is 1-10 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS as underdogs this season.  The Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. 

The Bulls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.  Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 5 No-Brainer on Atlanta -7.5

The Atlanta Hawks are back in control of this series after winning Game 4 106-101 to regain home-court advantage.  I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in Game 5, similar to their 106-90 victory in their last home game in Game 2.

The Hawks have won two out of three games since John Wall went down with injury.  The only exception was a 101-103 road loss in Game 3 where Paul Pierce made a lucky, banked-in jumper at the buzzer.

Wall was the one player that the Wizards could not afford to lose.  They have managed to be mostly competitive without him aside from that Game 2 loss at Atlanta by 16 points.  They will miss his leadership and playmaking ability on the road in Game 5.  In Game 2, the spread was 9.5, but it's only 7.5 in Game 5, so I believe there is some value here.

Washington is 1-9 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-14 ATS after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season.  The Wizards are 6-24-2 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Atlanta is 27-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet the Hawks in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Bulls/Cavs Game 5 No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls missed their opportunity to win Game 4 and go up 3-1 in this series.  They shot just 36.0% from the floor and lost when Lebron James hit a game-winning jumper at the buzzer, 86-84.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 5 tonight.

I have no doubt that Chicago is the better team in this series.  Cleveland is without Kevin Love, and both James and Kyrie Irving are far from 100%.  Sure, the Bulls have injury issues of their own with Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, but they are a deeper team that can overcome those injuries.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - off a road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 60-27 (69%) ATS since 1996.

Chicago is 13-5 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  The Bulls are 32-17 ATS off a home loss this season.  The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.  Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference semifinal games.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

Facing a 3-1 deficit if they lose tonight, I look for the Atlanta Hawks to come out with an inspired effort in Game 4.  They showed grit in bouncing back from a Game 1 loss with a 16-point win in Game 2, and I look for them to blow the Wizards out of the building in this must-win situation in Game 4 as well.

Washington was able to win Game 3 despite playing without John Wall, but it won't be so fortunate in Game 4.  Wall is the one player that it cannot afford to lose.  Paul Pierce's lucky, banked jump shot at the buzzer was the only thing that saved them in Game 3.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 97-57 (63%) ATS since 1996.

The Wizards are 6-23-2 ATS in their last 31 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 1-8 ATS after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points this season.  The Wizards are 2-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  These two trends combine for a 21-3 system backing Atlanta.  Take the Hawks in Game 4.

20* Hawks/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

I look for the Atlanta Hawks to regain control of this series with a win and cover in Game 3 against the Washington Wizards.  They will take advantage of the injury to John Wall, who the Wizards simply could not afford to lose if they wanted any chance of winning this series.

Atlanta shot 37.8% in Game 1, yet still had a chance to win in a 98-104 loss.  It only shot 43.5% in Game 2 and still cruised to a 106-90 victory.  I believe it's best shooting performance is awaiting in Game 3 as it shoots 46.3% as a team on the season.

As stated before, the Wizards cannot afford to be without Wall.  Ramon Sessions had a good game in his place in Game 2, scoring 21 points.  But Sessions is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and Jeff Teague is going to continue to have his way with him in Game 3.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, with a winning record on the season are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Washington is 4-21-1 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.  The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Bet the Hawks in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Cavaliers/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as small home favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3.  I really like their chances of winning this series considering the Cavs are without Kevin Love.  They are now the better team, and they'll prove that with a win tonight to get back ahead in this series.

The Cavs shot 12-of-26 from 3-point range in Game 2, which isn't going to happen again.  "I know our fans are waiting, the city's just waiting for us to come back there and it should be another exciting game," Derrick Rose said. "Hopefully we play some defense."

Cleveland is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.  The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS as an underdog this season.  Chicago is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season.

This play also fits one of my favorite zig-zag theory systems.  It tells us to play on home favorites who are coming off a loss by 10 points or more.  These home favorites need to have a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and need to be playing against a team with a winning percentage better than .500.  This system was on a 55-30 ATS run coming into the 2015 playoffs.  Bet the Bulls in Game 3 Friday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -6.5

The Houston Rockets came out flat in Game 1.  They thought they could just show up and win against a Clippers team that was playing without its best player in Chris Paul.  The Rockets won't make the same mistake again.  Look for them to come out with their most inspired effort of the season in Game 2.

Paul is expected to sit again as he's listed as doubtful.  It's a smart move by Doc Rivers, who has to be satisfied with getting home-court advantage after stealing Game 1.  The Clippers aren't about to play as well as they did without Paul again.

This play fits into one of my favorite playoff systems.  It's part of the zig-zag theory where you play on the team that lost the last game.  This system tells us to play on a home favorite that lost the last game by 10 points or more with a winning percentage from .600 to .750 against a team with better than a .500 record.  This system is 55-30-2 (64.7%) ATS in its last 87 tries.

Los Angeles is 4-12 ATS after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games this season.  Houston 12-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite this year.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Hawks Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -6

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs up to this point.  They won home-court advantage by stealing Game 1, and now I expect them to let up a little, while Atlanta puts the foot on the gas in Game 2 in essentially a must-win game.

The Hawks uncharacteristically missed a ton of wide open shots that they normally make in Game 1, yet they still almost won.  They shot just 37.8% from the field and lost 98-104.  As good as this team is at shooting the ball, I expect a much sharper performance in Game 2, which will lead to a win by 7-plus points to cover this spread.

Washington has some serious injury issues right now.  Bradley Beal severely sprained his ankle in Game 1, and while he's expected to play through the pain in Game 2, he clearly won't be effective.  John Wall also suffered a hand injury from a hard fall to the floor.  If this was the regular season, both players would likely be out.  Give them credit for gutting it out, but the Wizards simply aren't the same team without Wall and Beal at 100%.

Washington is 2-12 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging two straight losses where their opponent scored 100 or more points this season.  They are coming back to win 103.8 to 95.4 on average in this spot.  Bet the Hawks in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Wizards/Hawks Game 1 Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington +5

The Washington Wizards showed me enough in their first series to know that they are real contenders in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  I look for them to give the Hawks a run for their money tonight and to likely steal Game 1.

The Wizards' four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors was rarely even close as all four games they won by 7 or more points.  The Atlanta Hawks were much more vulnerable in their series, needing six games to get by eighth-seeded Brooklyn with three of their wins going down to the wire.

Washington is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight road playoff games.  Atlanta is 4-18 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.  Washington is 16-4 ATS in road games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Hawks/Nets Game 6 Line Mistake on Atlanta -3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have toyed around with the Brooklyn Nets for long enough.  This series ends tonight and I'll back the Hawks laying a small number on the road.

The Hawks swept the Nets during the regular season, but this has been a much feistier series.  The Nets are getting some respect from the books because they have hung around, but that all changes tonight.

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games are 93-56 (62.4%) ATS since 1996.

The Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.  That's the only trend that backs the Hawks, but tonight they show out like they are champs in the East.  It's time to separate themselves from the pack.  Bet the Hawks Friday.

20* Clippers/Spurs Game 6 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The road team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.  I don't expect the Clippers to go out without a fight tonight.  They have arguably been the better team in this series as they've lost a couple nail-biters in Game 2 and Game 5.

Los Angeles came up big with a 114-105 road win at San Antonio in Game 4.  It was essentially playing for its season in that game, and it is playing for its season tonight as well.  This core group of players has been together long enough to handle this kind of pressure-packed situation.

The Clippers have actually been playing their best basketball on the road here of late.  In fact, they are 9-1 SU in their last 10 road games overall.  They are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Doc Rivers will rally the troops tonight and have them coming back with an inspired effort.  Bet the Clippers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Blazers/Grizzlies Game 5 No-Brainer on Portland +6

The Portland Trail Blazers got a huge break when Memphis point guard Mike Conley suffered a facial fracture in Game 3.  His defense on Damian Lillard in the first three games was as big a reason as any that the Grizzlies were up 3-0.

Without Conley in Game 4, the Blazers took advantage.  They won 99-92 behind a huge game from Lillard.  After scoring just 32 total points on 10-of-37 shooting in his first two games at Memphis, Lillard scored 22 points with nine assists in Game 3, and then a game-high 32 points in the Game 4 win.

I really think that the Blazers believe they can get back into this series now, and I look for them to not only to cover this 6-point spread at Memphis in Game 5, but to likely win this game outright.  C.J. McCollum has been huge too, scoring 44 points in the past two games.

Memphis is 19-42 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the past two seasons.  This series is about to get interesting with the Blazers likely to take this game tonight.  Bet Portland in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Spurs/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Los Angeles Clippers showed a lot of guts by going into San Antonio and winning Game 4 114-105 to keep their season alive.  Now that they've regained home-court advantage, I expect them to hold onto it with a victory in Game 5 tonight.

The Clippers have been playing as well as anyone over the past couple months.  They are now 16-3 in their last 19 games overall and arguably should be up 3-1 in this series after blowing a late lead in Game 2 to lose in overtime.  They are simply the better team this year, and their resiliency shown in Game 4 will give them a lot of confidence going forward.

Los Angeles is 31-12 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game.  San Antonio has been vulnerable on the road this year with a mediocre 23-20 record away from home.  The Clippers have now won four of their last six meetings with the Spurs this season, showing that they are better than the defending champs.

The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Los Angeles is 24-13 ATS off two straight games with 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 5 Tuesday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers know that this is a must-win game to avoid falling behind the defending champion Spurs 3-1.  I look for them to give their best effort tonight in Game 4 and likely pull off the upset, though I'll take the points for some added insurance.

There is clearly some value here as the Clippers were only 4.5-point dogs in Game 3, and now 6.5-point dogs in Game 4.  They couldn't have played any worse in Game 3, shooting 34.1% while allowing 52.6% shooting. 

That's not going to happen again.  That performance has also helped create some line value here.  The betting public is big on "what have you done lately", which creates overreactions in lines.  I believe this is a classic overreaction.

Plays on road underdogs (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off a home win are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  They have only lost one of their last 19 games by more than 4 points, making for an 18-1 system backing them pertaining to today's 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +7

The Golden State Warriors are 0-3 ATS in this series and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.  They continue to be overvalued because they are the No. 1 team in the Western Conference and have the best record in the NBA.  Once again, they are overvalued as 7-point favorites in Game 4.

The New Orleans Pelicans are such a young team that they don't know any better.  I would expect an older team to fold in this situation, but the young Pelicans play with a lot of pride, and they don't want to get swept 4-0.  They have proven they can play with Golden State, and they want to show it with a victory in Game 4.

New Orleans played great down the stretch just to get into the postseason, going 8-3 SU in its last 11 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games like this one is.  It has hung with Golden State in all three games thus far as all three losses came by 10 points or less, including the OT home loss in Game 3.

New Orleans is 28-14 at home this season.  Plays against favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Pelicans are 28-13 ATS as underdogs this season. 

The Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games overall.  New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

15* Clippers/Spurs ESPN Friday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are steaming mad over the way they lost Game 2 in overtime.  They had it all but won in the end, and now I look for them to show some real grit in Game 3 to come back and regain home-court advantage in this series.

The Spurs are now 8-0 when trailing 1-0 in a first-round series.  They showed their mental toughness in Game 2, but now they are in rough shape after playing an overtime game.  That's especially the case since they may be short-handed with Tony Parker questionable after leaving Game 2 with an injury.

The Clippers are still playing as well as anyone right now with a 15-2 record in their last 17 games overall.  Both of their losses came by exactly 4 points to San Antonio and Golden State.

In fact, the Clippers haven't lost a game by more than 4 points in any of their last 18 contests.  That makes for a perfect 18-0 system backing Los Angeles pertaining to tonight's 4.5-point spread.  Take the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on New Orleans Pelicans +5

I've backed the New Orleans Pelicans with success in both Game 1 and Game 2.  I'll back them again in Game 3 for many of the same reasons, and also a few more.  They are simply showing too good of value to pass up as 5-point underdogs.

The Pelicans closed out the regular season playing their best basketball of the season.  They went 8-3 over their final 11 games just to get into the postseason, which included home wins over both the Spurs and Warriors.  Then, they played the Warriors tough on the road in the first two games, losing by 7 & 10 points.

The Warriors are simply overvalued in the early going in the playoffs because they had the best record in the NBA.  The #1 team is usually overvalued against the #8 team, and that has been the case in 2015 as the #8 seeds are now 4-0 ATS.  Golden State just cannot live up to the lofty expectations set forth from the oddsmakers and betting public.

New Orleans has been a dominant home team this season.  It has gone 28-13 on its home floor with a 24-16-1 ATS record to boot.  It is finally healthy, which is why it is living up to its potential here down the stretch.  With the series on the line in Game 3, I look for the Pelicans to respond in front of their raucous home crowd tonight.

The Pelicans are 27-13 ATS as underdogs this season, including 10-2 ATS as home underdogs.  New Orleans is 19-6 ATS off a road loss this season, and 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 five home games, and 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Pacific Division foes.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets gave the Atlanta Hawks a tougher fight than expected in Game 1 in a 92-99 loss as 11-point underdogs.  I look for them to play even tougher tonight as they look to avoid falling to 0-2 in this series and to easily cover this 9.5-point spread.

The Nets have played their best basketball down the stretch in going 13-7 in their last 20 games overall.  They are finally healthy, and Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson have all stepped up their games.  This team is better than their overall record would indicate even though they snuck in as the No. 8 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks remain overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference.  Well, they aren't as strong of a team now as they were before because their two starting big men are banged up right now in Paul Millsap and Al Horford.  Both are expected to play, but both are hampered by injuries.

Brooklyn is 24-8 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Hawks are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 when playing on two days' rest.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +12.5

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued tonight as 12.5-point favorites over the New Orleans Pelicans.  They had the best record in the NBA this season, and as a result they came into the playoffs getting too much respect from the betting public and oddsmakers.

Yes, the Warriors could have easily covered the 12-point spread in Game 1 as they led by double-digits throughout, but they weren't able to in a 106-99 win.  Now, the Pelicans will be playing even more desperate basketball tonight in Game 2 to try and even the series.

New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season here of late.  It has gone 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall, which were all pretty much must-win games to get into the playoffs.  It has even beaten the likes of San Antonio and Golden State during this stretch.

The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  New Orleans is 26-13 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Pelicans are 16-4 ATS after two straight games giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds this season.  New Orleans is 18-6 ATS off a road loss this year.  The Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* Spurs/Clippers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Angels Clippers are showing great value as home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of this series.  I'll take them at a discount in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

The Clippers are playing as well as anyone entering the playoffs.  They have gone 7-0 in their last seven games and 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They are getting no love today, which will only fuel their fire against the defending champs.

I actually believe the Spurs come into the playoffs deflated because they had the No. 2 seed wrapped up. Instead, they lost their last game of the season to fall to the No. 6 seed and a road series against the Clips.

San Antonio is 3-13 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Clippers Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Playoffs Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +10.5

The Atlanta Hawks come into the playoffs way overvalued.  Yes, they're the No. 1 seed, but they are far from the best team in the postseason.  They're being treated like an elite team with this double-digit spread.

The Nets earned their way into the playoffs with a 101-88 win over Orlando in the season finale.  They obviously aren't as good as they expected to be with that payroll, but when it matters, they have the players who can get it done in the playoffs.

The  Hawks beat the Nets 4-0 during the regular season.  These games weren't close either.  That has the betting public rolling the Hawks, but it also has provided us with great line value to go against the public and take the double-digit points.

Atlanta is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals this season.  The Nets are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on New Orleans +5.5

The New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs both have a lot to play for tonight.  A win gets New Orleans in the playoffs, while a win for San Antonio gets it the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.  So, both teams will be laying it all on the line tonight.

However, there's no question that the Spurs are the one receiving all of the public action in this one because they have won 11 straight while going 9-2 ATS in the process.  That has created a ton of line value for us to pounce on the Pelicans here.

New Orleans has been great at home, going 27-13 SU & 23-16-1 ATS this season.  It has won four straight home games coming in with blowout victories over Phoenix (by 15), Minnesota (by 22) and Sacramento (by 14).  Most impressive was its 103-100 home win over Golden State as 4.5-point dogs during this stretch.

The Pelicans have played the Spurs very tough this season.  In fact, they are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with San Antonio.  Their only loss came by a final of 93-95 (OT) on the road.  They won 97-90 at on on December 26th and 100-99 on the road on November 8th.  There's a good chance this one goes right down to the wire as well.  The Spurs are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.  San Antonio is 3-12 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS following a game with 15 or less assists this season.  New Orleans is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover 4 or 5 of its last 6 against the spread this season.  The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2

The Boston Celtics just clinched a playoff spot with their 117-78 win at Miami on Sunday.  They literally have nothing to play for now, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a big letdown tonight after realizing that they will be playing in the postseason.

The Toronto Raptors still have plenty to play for.  They are just a half-game back of Chicago for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They control their own destiny because if they win out, they will be the No. 3 seed.  That would have them playing Milwaukee instead of Washington in the first round.

Toronto has been fighting down the stretch, going 6-2 in its last eight games overall, including three straight road victories at Charlotte, Orlando and Miami coming in.  Its only two losses have come by a combined 6 points, which is how close it is to being 8-0 during this stretch.

I also like the fact that the Raptors are coming in on two days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  With nothing to play for, I don't expect the Celtics to show up tonight.  Roll with the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14.5

The New York Knicks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  As a result, the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them here down the stretch, which has created a ton of line value to back them.  That's the case again tonight folks.

The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost to Brooklyn by 2 as 9.5-point dogs, beat Philadelphia by 10 as 1-point dogs, only lost to Milwaukee by 8 as 11-point dogs, and beat Orlando by 1 as 11-point dogs.  They are clearly playing hard here down the stretch.

Atlanta literally has nothing to play for and would be wise to rest its starters heading into the playoffs.  It lost 99-108 at Washington yesterday, and you can bet it's not going to overwork its starters in this second of a back-to-back situation.  Paul Millsap is out with a shoulder injury to boot.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Atlanta.  Take the Knicks Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference in a win over Milwaukee on April 8th.  Since that victory, they have clearly shut it down.  They weren't interested in their back-to-back losses to Boston by finals of 90-99 and 78-117, and they won't be interested in this game, either.

The Detroit Pistons are playing out their season and would love to beat Cleveland here to kind of put a cherry on top of a successful second half.  The Pistons are 7-5 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, which includes a blowout 116-77 win over Charlotte yesterday.

Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - playing on back-to-back days, in April games are 205-133 (60.7%) ATS since 1996.  Plays against home favorites (CLEVELAND) - after trailing their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 60-30 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Pistons are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Charlotte Hornets have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  With that realization, the Hornets won't show up at all today.  That's why I'll lay the points with the Pistons at home in this one.

Without question, the Pistons are finishing out their season.  They have gone a ridiculous 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Stan Van Gundy has this team playing some of their best ball of the season.

The Hornets, meanwhile, have gone 0-3 in their last three games overall.  They lost by 5 at Miami, by 18 at home to Toronto, and by 24 at Atlanta.  If that's not evidence that they have quit I don't know that is.  They won't show up today either.

Detroit is 15-5 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Charlotte is 33-59 ATS versus poor shooting teams that make 43% or less since 1996.  The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.   The Pistons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.  Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have absolutely nothing to play for right now.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but will be playing their opening series on the road due to being two games back of the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers.

Portland had a golden chance to move up in the standings on Thursday at Golden State, but struggled down the stretch in a 105-116 loss.  That loss was probably the last straw for this team as now they'll be more concerned with getting rested heading into the playoffs than anything.

That's evident by the fact that they are expected to rest their best player in LaMarcus Aldridge tonight.  Aaron Afflalo injured his shoulder against the Warriors and is out 1-2 weeks.  Portland was already without Wesley Matthews and Dorell Wright, so it is short-handed tonight to say the least.

What you have to love about the Utah Jazz is just how they have continued to lay it on the line every night despite being out of playoff contention.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will be highly motivated to bounce back from an 88-89 loss to Memphis last night.  Their two losses in their last three games have come by a combined 3 points.

Utah is 1-2 against Portland this season, but its two losses have come by a combined 4 points, while its win came by 16.  The Jazz are 19-3 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent this season.  Utah is 7-0 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Jazz are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics have played their way into the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, tied with No. 8 seed Brooklyn with identical 36-42 record.  They are only one game ahead of No. 9 Indiana (35-43), so they aren't going to be letting up any time soon.

The Celtics have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games overall, including 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.  They wont at Charlotte by 12, at home against Indiana by 13, at Toronto by 1, and at Detroit by 10.  They are simply playing their best basketball of the season right now at the perfect time.

Cleveland would normally be a bigger favorite in a different situation, but this is a very bad spot to back the Cavaliers.  They just clinched the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with their 104-99 win at Milwaukee on Wednesday.  Now, they literally have nothing to play for, which is why Lebron James is expected to rest tonight.  I don't expect the Cavaliers to show up at all.

Boston is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog this season.  The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that average 103-plus points per game this season.  The Celtics are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Celtics Friday.

20* Blazers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +9.5

The Golden State Warriors have absolutely nothing to play for.  They have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and have no need to show up the rest of the way.  That has been evident in their last couple games.

Golden State could suffer its first three-game losing streak in 17 months.  It is coming off back-to-back losses at San Antonio (92-107) and New Orleans (100-103), which were two motivated opponents.  It will now be up against another motivated squad tonight.

The Portland Trail Blazers are now 1.5 games behind Los Angeles and San Antonio in the race for home-court advantage in the first round.  They have won seven of their last nine to put themselves in this position.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back, but were able to rest some starters in a 116-91 blowout of the Minnesota Timberwolves last night.

"We've lost our last two, but we're not going to dwell on that fact," Stephen Curry said. "We pretty much have handled business on the road and we've been competitive in every single game besides probably two."  That sounds like a player not concerned with the losing streak, and one that is just looking forward to the playoffs.

"We know that the more games we win we give ourselves a better chance of having home court, so we wanted to come out and attack the game," said guard Damian Lillard.  That sounds like a guy determined to get home court.  The Blazers will also be motivated to avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Warriors after losing the first two.

Portland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference foes.  The Warriors are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on one days' rest.  The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Blazers Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +17

This is simply too big of a number that the oddsmakers are asking the Portland Trail Blazers to cover.  They just don't have much to play for at this point in the season.  They won their division so they will be the No. 4 seed, but they are likely to play their first series on the road because they will have a worse record than the No. 5 seed.

Portland has had a rash of injuries here of late, too.  LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both missed their 96-106 loss at Brooklyn on Monday.  While both are expected to return, they are still banged up.  Chris Kaman is questionable with a thump injuries, while Dorell Wright and Wesley Matthews are out for the season.

Yes, this will be the second of a back-to-back for the Timberwolves, but it won't affect them much after losing to Sacramento 111-116 last night.  That's because they had three days off prior to that game, so they will still be fresh and ready to go.  They could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.

Minnesota has played Portland very tough this season, going 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in three meetings.  The Timberwolves have not lost to the Blazers by more than 15 points in any of their last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing them pertaining to tonight's 17-point spread.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +8

The Chicago Bulls just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They have done it time and time again this year, playing their best against the best teams, and playing their worst against the worst teams.  I look for that trend to continue tonight.

The Orlando Magic clearly have not quit.  They are coming off two of their best performances of the season, winning 97-84 at Minnesota as 4.5-point favorites, and then upsetting Milwaukee 97-90 as 8-point road underdogs.  Now, they have had three days off in between games to prepare for Chicago, which will be a huge advantage.

Orlando is 3-0 ATS against Chicago this season.  It only lost 97-98 at home as 6.5-point dogs, won 121-114 on the road as 11.5-point dogs, and lost 90-98 as 10-point road dogs.  The Magic are now 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The underdog is 25-9 ATS in the last 34 meetings in this series.

Chicago is in a big hangover spot off its tough 94-99 loss at Cleveland last time out as well.  The Bulls are 31-53 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

15* Spurs/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are fighting for their playoff lives.  They are now just 0.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their margin for error is zero right now, so look for them to come out swinging tonight.

Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is for the Thunder.  I look for that to show in the team's performances tonight as the Thunder will simply want this game more.

The Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are 17-3 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games, including 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them, forcing oddsmakers to set this number a lot higher than it should be.  I'm not so sure the Spurs should even be favored here.

Oklahoma City is 15-5 ATS off a close loss by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 13-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game this year.  The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with San Antonio.  Take the Thunder Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The New Orleans Pelicans were 3.5 games out of the Western Conference's final playoff spot with less than two weeks to go.  After a string of stellar play where they've won four of their last five, they are now just 0.5 games back and hungry to get into the postseason.

Yes, they are playing the team with the best record in the NBA in the Golden State Warriors tonight, but this won't be the same Warriors team as it has been up to this point.  That's because Golden State literally has nothing to play for right now.

The Warriors have already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.  They own the No. 1 seed in the West, and they also would have home court if they made the NBA Finals and had to play the No. 1 seed from the East in Atlanta.  I just don't trust them to show up over these final five games, especially tonight.

New Orleans is 16-5 ATS off a road loss this season.  The Pelicans are 23-11 ATS as an underdog this season.  New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Duke Championship Game No-Brainer on Wisconsin -1

The Wisconsin Badgers have showed a ton of guts in their last two games in erasing second-half deficits to beat two of the best teams in college basketball in Arizona and Kentucky.  Their veteran leadership has been huge for them down the stretch.

I'll take these veteran Badgers over the young Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.  Sam Dekker has been out of this world clutch for Wisconsin, and Frank Kaminsky is showing why he's the Player of the Year in College Basketball.

While the Badgers had a tough road to get here, the Blue Devils had a very easy path in comparison.  Their last two games have come against Gonzaga and No. 7 Michigan State, which was fortunate just to make the Final Four.  This major step up in competition will be too much for Duke tonight.

Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in road games revenging a home loss to an opponent over the last two years.  Wisconsin is 45-22-1 ATS in its last 68 non-conference games.  The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC foes.  Bet Wisconsin Monday.

20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE MONTH on Brooklyn Nets +8.5

What do the Atlanta Hawks have to play for at this point?  They have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They aren't catching Golden State for the No. 1 overall seed between the two conferences.  The answer is that they have nothing to play for.  Yet, the Hawks are still favored by 8.5 points tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that has everything to play for. 

It's no wonder the Hawks have struggled here of late.  They are just 3-5 in their last eight games overall, which includes a 19-point loss to Golden State, a 19-point loss to San Antonio, a 15-point loss to Charlotte and a 10-point loss to Detroit.  If that's not evidence that the Hawks aren't focused right now then I don't know what is.

The Nets have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  Yet, that run only has them in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th-place Boston.  The Nets not only are fighting for a playoff spot, but they also have visions of catching No. 6 seed Milwaukee, which they trail by 2.5 games.  That would allow them to avoid Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round.

I get that Atlanta has had 3 days off in between games, while Brooklyn will be playing 4 games in 5 days, but I believe the motivation in this game trumps the rest factor.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Brooklyn is 6-0 in its last six games.  These three trends combine for a 19-1 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

25* Final Four GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -5

Duke (33-4) has been the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament up to this point. It has yet to be really tested as all four of its games were pretty much decided with 10 minutes to go. It beat Robert Morris by 29 and San Diego State by 19 in the first two rounds to get things started.

Sure, it only beat Utah 63-57 in the Sweet 16, but that game wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate. The Blue Devils led by 15 with under 10 minutes to go before a mini-rally by the Utes made the final score appear close. They then put together their most impressive performance of the tournament yet with a 66-52 thrashing of Gonzaga in the Elite 8.

While the Blue Devils are known for being one of the best offensive teams in the country, it’s their defense that has carried them thus far. They are giving up just 53.5 points per game in the big dance. They held Robert Morris, San Diego State and Utah all to below 37% shooting, and then Gonzaga to 44%.

There's no question that Michigan State's run to the Final Four has been remarkable.  However, despite being a No. 7 seed, it has actually been favored in three of the four games it has played.  The only upset win came against Virginia in the Round of 32.  I look at that as a key indicator that the Spartans have had a very easy path to the Final Four.

I also look at Michigan State's results and see that it easily could have lost all four games it played.  It only beat Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma by 4, and it needed overtime to get by Louisville by 7.  I believe that the Spartans' luck will run out this weekend against the best team they have played by far.

Duke is 16-1 in its last 17 games overall with six of its last eight victories coming by 12 points or more. Each of its last nine wins have come by at least 5 points. The Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Duke is 10-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.

Mike Krzyzewski is 8-1 against Tom Izzo in his career with all eight victories coming by 5 points or more. That includes an 81-71 victory over the Spartans earlier this season on November 18th. The Blue Devils also beat the Spartans 71-61 two years ago in the NCAA Tournament.  The talent gap between these teams has been hugely in Duke's favor in the past, and it is once again this year as freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones will prove to be too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -2.5

The Brooklyn Nets have saved their best basketball for last, which is fitting considering they have been fighting for their lives to make the playoffs.  They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and currently sit in the No. 7 spot in the East, but only a half-game ahead of both No. 8 Boston and No. 9 Miami.  They still have a lot of work to do.

Brook Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn.  Deron Williams had his best game with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards in a win over the Knicks last time out.

The Toronto Raptors are overvalued due to winning three straight coming in, but those three wins have come against the Lakers, Rockets and Timberwolves.  They remain without their best player in Kyle Lowry (back), and I don't believe they stand much of a change against the surging Nets without him.  The Raptors are 8-13 in their last 21 games overall.

Toronto is 9-18 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS versus up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Raptors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 9-20-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on 1 days rest.  Take the Nets Friday.

20* Stanford/Miami NIT Championship No-Brainer on Miami +2

The ACC showed very well for itself in the NCAA Tournament.  It is doing so in the NIT as well thanks to Miami, which just keeps finding ways to win as its mental makeup couldn't be much stronger with the path it has taken to get here.

The Hurricanes came back from a big deficit against Richmond to win 63-61 on the road, and then topped Temple 60-57 in the semifinals after trailing for most of the way.  They have now won seven of their last eight games overall heading into the Championship Game.

Stanford has had the easier path since it played its first three games at home before beating Old Dominion 67-60 in the semifinals. What I love about this matchup is that the Hurricanes should continue to have a huge rebounding advantage.  They have outrebounded each of their last eight opponents coming in.

Miami is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five or less steals this season.  The hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in road games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers this year.  The Cardinal are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC opponents.  These three trends combine for a 17-0 system backing the Hurricanes.  Bet Miami Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2

The Dallas Mavericks are still looking to clinch a playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Until they do, they will be laying it all on the line with the hopes of getting some rest in the final few games of the season.

The Mavericks are coming off a huge 135-131 win at Oklahoma City last night.  While they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, they had two days off prior to that game against the Thunder, so it should not affect them too much.

Houston will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after its 115-111 home win over Sacramento yesterday.  However, it will be a tired team considering this will also be its 4th game in 5 days.  That's about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA, especially this late in the season.

Dallas is 43-23 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  The home team is 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Dallas.  Take the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Clippers/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -3

The Portland Trail Blazers (48-25) are playing very well right now.  They currently sit in the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference and have a chance of moving up to the No. 2 seed.  That motivation has led to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS run in their last four games overall.

The Los Angeles Clippers (49-26) are in a similar position, and they are playing well right now too.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall, but only two of those wins came against teams with winning records, and both were at home against Washington and New Orleans.

This is a very tough spot for the Clippers, who controlled most of the game last night before giving away to the Warriors in a 106-110 home loss.  Now, they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I believe this is a hangover spot for them after losing to the best team in the NBA as well.

Portland is 30-7 SU at home this season.  The home team has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series.  The Blazers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 home meetings with the Clippers.  Roll with the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -2

The Oklahoma City Thunder (42-32) are just 2.5 games ahead of the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They will obviously be playing with a lot of urgency as a result.

The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) have not been playing with a sense of urgency at all.  They are pretty much locked into the No. 7 seed as they are three games behind San Antonio and three ahead of Oklahoma City.  That's not a bad spot to be in considering Memphis is the No. 2 seed right now.

The Thunder have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming on the road to San Antonio and Utah.  They have really taken care of business at home here of late, going 6-0 in their last six home games with five of those victories coming by 8 points or more.

The Mavs are 1-4 in their last five games.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.  This team just has been way out of sync and cannot be trusted only catching two points here tonight.  Dallas is 0-10 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams that average 83-plus shots per game in the second half of the season this year.  Take the Thunder Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2

The Golden State Warriors (60-13) already clinched the Pacific Division title, and they locked up the top seed in the West while setting a franchise record for victories in Saturday's 108-95 win at Milwaukee.  If this isn't a letdown spot for them, than I don't know what is.

Now they have to face a Los Angeles Clippers (49-25) team that has been on a roll since Blake Griffin returned from a 15-game absence.  They have gone 7-0 in thier last seven games overall with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points per game.  They are now within one game of third-place Memphis.

Home-court advantage has been absolutely huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  The Clippers are 4-0 in their last four and 11-3 in their last 14 home meetings with Golden State as well.

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games are 42-16 (72.4%) ATS since 1996.  The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

20* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls (26-10) have been playing like an NCAA Tournament team ever since they got healthy midseason.  Jesse Morgan (12.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg) missed 10 games early on, but when he returned, the Owls have really been hitting all cylinders since.

Temple has gone 14-3 in its last 17 games overall.  All three of its losses came on the road to SMU (twice) and Tulsa, which are arguably the two best teams in the AAC.  I've really been impressed with the ease in which the Owls have reached the semifinals of the NIT.

After a 73-67 win over a pesky Bucknell team, the Owls have rolled George Washington (90-77) and Louisiana Tech (77-59) to get here.  Morgan came up huge in both wins, scoring 20 points in only 23 minutes against George Washington and 17 points in 24 minutes against Louisiana Tech.

Miami (24-12) is a team that has simply won a ton of close games all season and is not as good as its record would indicate.  It has won 10 games by 5 points or less, and all three of its wins in the NIT have come by 7 points or fewer.  It beat NC Central (75-71) at home, Alabama (73-66) at home, and Richmond (63-61) on the road.

Temple is 10-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season.  The Owls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

20* Suns/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +8.5

The Phoenix Suns (38-36) suffered a big loss last night to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They now trail the Thunder by four games in the Western Conference playoff race for the No. 8 seed.  It's safe to say that they will be needing to almost win out to make the playoffs now.

That also means that the Suns won't be lacking any motivation the rest of the way.  That's especially the case tonight as the Suns will be looking for revenge from an 81-87 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers just three days ago on Friday, March 27th.

The Blazers come into this game overvalued due to having won three straight.  Well, all three wins came by 6 points or less, and they came against Utah, Phoenix and Denver.  This team had lost five straight prior to this brief winning streak, so they aren't playing all that well right now and should not be 8.5-point favorites here.

The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last four trips to Portland.  Phoenix is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Phoenix is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Suns are 48-25 ATS in their last 73 road games.  Bet the Suns Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Memphis Grizzlies +8

The value on the Memphis Grizzlies could not be any better than it is right now, while there is no value in backing the San Antonio Spurs right now.  As a result, I believe this line has been inflated, and I have no other choice but to side with the road underdog Grizzlies tonight.

Memphis is coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Cleveland (89-111) and Golden State (84-107).  The betting public now wants nothing to do with the Grizzlies.  The Spurs have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The betting public wants everything to do with them right now because of it.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, four of the last 10 meetings have actually gone to overtime as this has been a very closely-contested rivalry.  I look for more of the same tonight when these two square off in San Antonio.

Memphis is 81-54 ATS against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Grizzlies are 52-32 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 46% or more of their shots over the last three years.  The Spurs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. NBA Southwest division opponents.  The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Memphis Sunday.

20* Gonzaga/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Gonzaga +3

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the real deal this season.  This is easily the best team that Mark Few has ever had.  They are 35-2 on the season with one of their losses coming in overtime on the road at Arizona, which is a very tough place to play.

The Bulldogs have been rolling through the NCAA Tournament thus far with three straight double-digit victories over NDSU (86-76), Iowa (87-68) and UCLA (74-62).  Some of their best players even had an off night as they shot 40.3% from the floor against the Bruins, but they still won by 12 points.

I believe Gonzaga is a better team than Duke and it should not be the underdog.  The Blue Devils have also had a pair of blowout wins over Robert Morris (85-56) and San Diego State (68-49), but they had to hold on late to beat Utah (63-57) last time out.  I just believe that the Bulldogs have more balance than the Blue Devils do.  The Bulldogs have the size inside to disrupt Jahlil Okafor just as Utah did.

Gonzaga ia 11-1 ATS in road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Gonzaga Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame +11

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season.  That has clearly carried over into the big dance as well as they've won three straight games, including an impressive 81-70 victory over Wichita State last round, to reach the Elite 8.

The Fighting Irish have now won eight straight coming into this game, which includes wins against ranked teams in then-No. 16 Louisville (71-59), then-No. 2 Duke (74-64) and then-No. 19 North Carolina (90-82).  So, they have obviously beaten some very good teams during this streak.

Notre Dame players are clearly playing for head coach Mike Brey right now.  He revealed to his players only after a 67-64 (OT) win over Butler in the Round of 32 that he lost his mother earlier that day.  The players responded in a big way with that 11-point win over Wichita State, and I look for them to use that as extra motivation for them against Kentucky in the Elite 8.

I believe Kentucky comes into this game way overvalued due to its 78-39 beat down of West Virginia in the Sweet 16.  Looking back, that was a terrible matchup for the Mountaineers.  To hang with Kentucky you have to be a good 3-point shooting team, and the Mountaineers are one of the worst in the tournament.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is an elite offensive team that can hit the 3-pointer with the best of them.  It is shooting 52% overall in the tournament and 38% from 3-point range.  It scores 78.3 points per game on the season on 51.1% shooting overall and 39.2% from beyond the arc.  The Fighting Irish have what it takes to go basket for basket with the Wildcats.  They spread you out with four 3-point shooters on the court at all times, which will nullify Kentucky's height advantage inside defensively.

The Fighting Irish are 11-1 ATS in road games versus excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 No-Brainer on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats have waited an entire year for the opportunity at revenge against Wisconsin.  They lost in the Elite 8 to the Badgers last year by a final of 63-64 (OT), and that has left a sour taste in their mouth all offseason and throughout the year.  I believe that extra motivation will push them over the top as they get revenge in the Elite 8 exactly one year later.

Plus, I believe the Wildcats are the better team as well.  They are 34-3 on the season with their three losses coming by a combined 9 points.  That's how close they are to being 37-0 right alongside Kentucky.  They have won 14 in a row coming into this one with all 14 wins coming by 6 points or more, and 11 of those 14 coming by double-digits.

Wisconsin has been very vulnerable up to this point in the tournament.  It only beat Coastal Carolina by 14 as 20.5-point favorites while giving up 48.3% shooting.  It only beat Oregon by 7 as 12.5-point favorites while allowing Joseph Young to score 30 points.  It then was fortunate to beat UNC by 7 last time out as this was a 1-point game in the final minute.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams that force 12 or less turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Arizona is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference No-Brainer on Dallas Mavericks +9.5

This number has been inflated for a couple of reasons.  The first is that the Spurs are playing well right now, having gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, so they are clearly overvalued due to this run of solid play.  That includes a 39-point win over Oklahoma City last time out, but the Thunder were playing the second of a back-to-back and shorthanded.

The second is that they'll be out for revenge from a 94-101 loss at Dallas on Tuesday.  The Spurs played the next night against the Thunder in their 39-point win, so they will have only had one day off in between games.  The Mavericks haven't played since that 7-point win over the Spurs, so they have had two days off and will be well-rested and ready to go.

Dallas has simply had San Antonio's number in recent meetings as this has proven to be an excellent matchup for the Mavericks.  They are 5-5 SU & a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs dating back to their playoff series this past postseason, which sent the full seven games.

The Mavericks are 22-9 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last three seasons .  Dallas is 319-251 ATS as an underdog since 1996.  The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to San Antonio.  Roll with the Mavericks Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +4

The Golden State Warriors (58-13) beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday to capture their first Pacific Division title since 1975-76.  After that huge milestone, I look for the Warriors to take their foot off the gas tonight and to suffer a bit of a letdown.

After all, the Warriors lead second-place Memphis (50-22) by 8.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the West.  They also lead Atlanta by four games for home-court advantage throughout.  They really don't have a whole lot to play for at this point in the season.

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, have a lot to play for right now.  They only lead Houston by 1.5 games for the No. 2 seed.  They want that No. 2 spot so they can have home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs, so motivation is not an issue for them.

The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Grizzlies are 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Memphis is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Grizzlies Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on NC State +3

You would have to say that NC State (22-13, 10-8 ACC) has been the surprise of the tournament up to this point. It was very fortunate to survive in a 66-65 win over LSU in the Round of 64. The Tigers missed each of their last six free throw attempts to allow the Wolfpack to escape with a 16-point come-from-behind victory. It was a different story against No. 1 Villanova in the Round of 32.

The Wolfpack controlled the game most of the way against the Wildcats and eventually held on for a 71-68 victory. Four different NC State played scored in double figures, led by Trevor Lacey’s 17 points, six rebounds and four assists. Cat Barber added 13 points, while Abdul-Malik Abu (13 points, 12 rebounds) and Lennard Freeman (11 points, 12 rebounds) controlled the paint all game.

NC State has really been playing well for quite some time now.  It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  That includes a 74-65 win at then-No. 9 Louisville on February 14th as 10.5-point underdogs as the Cardinals shot just 32.8%, so this will be a rematch.  It also won at then-No. 15 North Carolina 58-46 on February 24th.  It has beaten Duke within the conference as well.  Throw in that win over Villanova, and the Wolfpack are proving they can play with anyone.

Louisville has had a relatively easy path to get here.  It barely survived in a 57-55 victory over UC-Irvine in the opener.  It then played a Northern Iowa team that was probably overvalued due to its record in the last round, winning that game 66-53.  UNI didn't have the guards that could deal with Louisville's press, but this is a much tougher matchup for the Cardinals because the Wolfpack do have the guards to deal with it.  They also have Abu and Freeman inside who can counter Montrezl Harrell.

The Wolfpack are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win.  NC State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 9-17 ATS as a favorite this season.  Thee Cardinals are 3-10 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this year.  Bet NC State Friday.

20* Sweet 16 Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -10.5

The Arizona Wildcats are proving in the NCAA Tournament that they were deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They have been one of the most impressive teams thus far in the big dance, and I look for them to continue their dominance in the Sweet 16 against Xavier.

After all, Arizona (33-3) is three losses by a combined 9 points away from being 36-0 right now right alongside Kentucky.  They beat Texas Southern (93-72) in the opening round, which is the same Texas Southern team that has wins over Michigan State and Kansas State this season.

In the Round of 32, the Wildcats put together one of their most impressive performances of the season.  They beat Ohio State 73-58 despite shooting just 36.5% from the field.  They did so by limiting the Buckeyes to just 3 second-chance points for the entire game while rebounding 78 percent of their misses.

Xavier couldn't have had an easier path to the Sweet 16, and therefore it is overvalued coming into this game.  It got to play an Ole Miss team that was tired after staging a huge comeback two days earlier against BYU in the opener.  Then, it got lucky and had Georgia State upset No. 3 Baylor.  The Musketeers would only beat Georgia State 75-67 despite shooting 67.6 percent from the floor, which was the third-best mark in the NCAA Tournament over the past 15 years.

Xavier has played some good teams this season, but it has yet to face a team the quality of Arizona.  The only thing close has been Villanova, and the Musketeers have been blown out three times by the Wildcats.  They lost 88-75 at Villanova, 78-66 at home against the Wildcats, and 69-52 in the Big East Tournament to Villanova.

Arizona is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Wildcats are 18-8 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.  Arizona is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Thursday Night Line Mistake on West Virginia +13.5

Bobby Huggins finds himself back in the Sweet 16 with a West Virginia team that is hitting on all cylinders right now.  What I love about the Musketeers is that they play a style of basketball that Kentucky isn't used to, and thus they have an excellent chance of hanging around in this game.

The Mountaineers beat Buffalo 68-62 before beating down Maryland 69-59.  They forced 23 turnovers and scored 26 points off of them in Sunday's win over Maryland.  The Terrapins only managed four points against their press in the second half.  They also forced turnovers on 26 percent of Buffalo's possessions in the opener.

Kentucky showed it was vulnerable as Cincinnati played it tough for the first 25 minutes.  The Wildcats did eventually pull away for a 64-51 victory, but they fell to 0-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Hampton by 23 as 34.5-point favorites and Cincinnati by 13 as 16-point favorites.  Once again, I believe the Wildcats are overvalued here as 13.5-point favorites over WVU.

West Virginia is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountaineers are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 post-season tournament games.  West Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games.  The Wildcats are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Los Angeles Lakers +10.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season over the past month in spite of their 18-50 record.  As a result, they have been undervalued time and time again because of their poor record.

Indeed, the Lakers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  You have to go all the way back to February 11th to find the last time that they lost a game by more than 9 points.  They have gone 15 games without losing by more than 9 points, which makes for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Lakers pertaining to tonight's 10.5-point spread.

This is a very tough spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are playing without Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka.  They have a huge game coming up tomorrow night against the San Antonio Spurs, and it's only human nature for them to be looking ahead to that game and overlooking the Lakers.

The Thunder have only won two of their last 13 games by more than 9 points, making for an 11-2 system backing the Lakers pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  Los Angeles has played Oklahoma City very tough in the last two meetings, losing 103-104 and 101-108.  I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Oklahoma City is 5-14 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 games this year.  The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2

The Evansville Purple Aces should be much heavier favorites today against the Eastern Illinois Panthers.  It's amazing that they even have to play this game on the road considering they are the better team, but that won't be a big deal since they are the better team, and now they're showing great value as only 2-point favorites.

Evansville is now 20-12 on the season following its 82-77 home victory over a pesky IUPU-Fort Wayne team in the opening round of the CIT.  This is a Purple Aces team that only lost twice in non-conference play, and both came by exactly two points against very good Green Bay and Murray State teams.  They also beat Northern Iowa, which has only lost four times all season.

Eastern Illinois is just 18-14 on the season.  It did upset Oakland 97-91 in the opening round of the CIT, but that effort has it overvalued coming in.  The Panthers lost by 33 to Belmont in the Ohio Valley Tournament.  They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, which includes an 11-point loss to Missouri State, a 22-point loss to Creighton, and a 25-point loss to NC Central.

The Panthers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Purple Aces are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  The Panthers are 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Evansville is 6-0 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  Eastern Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight games where they had five or less steals over the last two seasons.  Take Evansville Monday.

25* South Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -6

Gonzaga (33-2, 17-1 WCC) got more of a scare from North Dakota State in the first round than it would have liked. While it was never in real serious jeopardy, it simply could not deliver the knockout blow in an 86-76 victory. Kyle Wiltjer was brilliant, connecting on 8-of-12 from the field for 23 points. Kevin Pangos added 18 points, including 4-of-9 from 3-point range, in the win.

The Bulldogs probably still feel like they got snubbed from a No. 1 seed. This is easily the best team that head coach Mark Few has ever had. They proved they were for real back in December when they took Arizona to overtime on the road. They also beat SMU by 16, Georgia by 12, St. John’s by 7, Washington State by 15 and UCLA by 13 out of conference. They outscore the opposition by an average of 18.0 points per game.

Iowa put together perhaps the  most impressive performance of the tournament thus far in its 83-52 beat down of Davidson.  Many had picked the Wildcats to upset the Hawkeyes, but in the end, this was a total mismatch.  The Hawkeyes had a huge height advantage and they capitalized on it.  It turned out to be just a terrible matchup for the Wildcats.

This line is clearly an overreaction from Iowa blowing Davidson out and Gonzaga failing to cover in a 10-point win over North Dakota State. This line would have been set much closer to 10 had these teams played before the Round of 64 results. That’s why I believe there is value with the Zags, who will have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle.

Gonzaga is 18-9 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 18-7 ATS when playing on one or less days’ rest over the last two years. Gonzaga is 25-10-2 ATS in its last 37 games following an ATS loss.  Iowa is 0-8 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Hawkeyes won't have the height advantage they had against Davidson.  Bet Gonzaga.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a team I'm very big on heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the biggest sleepers to make a deep run.  They survived against Wofford in the opener, and that will give them confidence that they can pull out another close one against UNC today.

This is a team that went 27-8 this season and was easily the second-best team in the SEC behind Kentucky.  Three of its eight losses have actually come to Kentucky, so it has been nearly unbeatable outside of the Wildcats.

Arkansas compiled many impressive non-conference wins, including a 30-point victory over Wake Forest, a 6-point win on the road at SMU, and a 14-point home win over Dayton.  It also beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Georgia (twice) and Ole Miss in conference action.

What I really like about the Razorbacks is that they play a style that works in the NCAA Tournament and is tough to prepare for.  They get up and down and they pressure you defensively, which can get the opposition out of sync and lead to big runs for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Mike Anderson is a disciple of Nolan Richardson, who led the Razorbacks to the NCAA Title in 1994.

North Carolina (25-11) has been inconsistent all season.  That showed again in a narrow 67-65 win over Harvard as 10-point favorites in the Round of 64.  I just don't believe this team should be laying points to the Razorbacks, who are the better squad in my opinion.

The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots this season.  UNC is 0-6 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 16-0 system backing the Razorbacks.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Georgetown/Utah South Region No-Brainer on Georgetown +4.5

Georgetown (22-10, 12-6 Big East) put to rest all the talk that it couldn’t handle underdogs. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera scored 25 points, Mikael Hopkins had 10 points and nine rebounds, and the Hoyas avoided another tournament upset by beating No. 13 Eastern Washington 84-74 Thursday night. They had lost four of their last five tournament games, and they found themselves down by seven in the first half, but they eventually stormed out to a 23-point lead before holding on late.

The Hoyas have all the pieces to make a deep run. Former UCLA problem child Josh Smith is a dominant post force, Smith-Rivera can do everything a lead guard must do, Hopkins is the heart of the Hoyas’ defense, Isaac Copeland is a versatile freshman with an NBA future, and Jabril Trawick strikes fear into the opposition.

Utah has been extremely vulnerable down the stretch since a 21-4 start.  It has lost four of its last eight games overall, and it barely survived in a 57-50 win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday.  The Lumberjacks were within three points late, but the Utes iced it from the free throw line.  Now, they take a big step up in competition against the Hoyas tonight.

Remember, this is a Georgetown team that beat Villanova by 20 points earlier this season to hand the Wildcats one of their two losses. The Hoyas are 94-57 ATS in their last 151 non-conference games, including 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference opponents.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* Dayton/Providence Late-Night BAILOUT on Dayton +3

The Flyers earned an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament this season with a 25-8 record overall and a 13-5 mark within the Atlantic 10 Conference. They felt like they should not have been forced to play in a First Four game, which is exactly what they had to do last year as well.

If you remember, the Flyers were a Cinderella team that managed to advance to the Elite 8. They brought back their top two players from that team in Jordan Sibert (16.5 ppg) and Dyshawn Pierre (12.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who have both played brilliantly all season in leading the Flyers back to the big dance.

Dayton trailed most of the way in its First Four game against Boise State, which was essentially a home game for the Flyers as it was played inside Dayton Arena. However, the Flyers got a game-winning 3-pointer from Sibert with 36 seconds left to play that proved to be the difference in a 56-55 victory over the Broncos. They improved to 16-7 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games.

The Flyers are 14-4 ATS in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  Dayton is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 non-conference road games.  The Flyers are 22-11 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the last two years.  Providence is 16-31 ATS in its last 47 games after covering four of its last five against the spread.

Dayton had a real home-court advantage in the First Four game and prevailed in a tight one with Boise State. Jordan Sibert was in foul trouble, but when he was on the floor the Flyers were dangerous. Now, they’ll actually get to play in their home state again in Columbus, Ohio, which is another huge advantage. I look for them to feed off of the crowd and to pull the upset of Providence, which is one of the more overrated teams in the country.  Roll with Dayton Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are way undervalued right now due to all of their injuries.  I'll gladly take advantage and back them as 1.5-point home favorites today against the Toronto Raptors.  After all, injuries didn't stop them from thumping Indiana 103-86 last time out.

The Bulls will now be working on a ton of rest.  They will be playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, which will be a huge advantage for them considering their injuries right now.  The Bulls are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Raptors.

Toronto is dealing with a key injury of its own.  Kyle Lowry is questionable to play with an back injury, and he's the Raptors' best player.  They come in overvalued due to having won three of four, but their three wins came against Miami, Indiana and Minnesota.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, on Friday nights are 43-18 (70.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Bet the Bulls Friday.