Winning Sports Picks

20* Nevada/Iowa State Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State -6

The Iowa State Cyclones have won the Big 12 Tournament three of the last four years.  A few seasons ago, they were riding high and then were upset by UAB in the opening round.  This senior-laded squad with six seniors who play significant minutes remembers that defeat, and they won't fall victim to overlooking Nevada this time around.

I believe Iowa State has as good a chance to make the Final Four as any team not among the Top 3 seeds in this tournament.  I love that senior leadership, and this is a red hot team having gone 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The only loss came on the road at West Virginia, where nobody seems to win, and they avenged that loss with an 80-74 victory over the Mountaineers in the Big 12 Championship Game.

In previous years, being the best team in the Mountain West would have been a heck of an accomplishment.  But this conference was worse this season than any I can remember in history.  So the Wolf Pack don't deserve much credit for winning the MWC.  They lost by 18 at St. Mary's in non-conference, and they went 1-1 against Iona, which were the two teams they faced this season that will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog.  This game will be played in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, so Iowa State will have a decisive home-court advantage here.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech +5.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They went 22-10 this year and finished 10-8 in the toughest conference in the country in the ACC.  They went 17-11 ATS in all lined games, including 10-5 ATS in road lined games.

Buzz Williams is one of my favorite head coaches in the country because he gets the most out of his players.  And Williams has done just that at Virginia Tech, taking over a Hokies team a few years ago that was coming off three straight last-place finishes in the ACC.

Wisconsin was the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, but it has been overrated all season.  The Badgers finished 25-9 overall and didn't even win the Big Ten.  They went 6-11 ATS in all road lined games.  And the Badgers finished terribly, going 4-6 SU in their last 10 games, and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 contests.

The Badgers lost to Michigan 56-71 in the Big Ten Championship Game on Sunday.  That leaves them with less time to prepare for Virginia Tech, and they clearly won't be as fresh.  The Hokies last played on Thursday, March 9th in a hard-fought 68-74 loss to Florida State.  They have now had a full week off to get prepared.

My biggest reason for picking the Hokies here is the matchup advantage.  The Hokies led the ACC in 3-point shooting this season, and they were 9th in the country, hitting 40.3% from deep on the season.  Wisconsin ranks 306th in the country in defending the 3-pointer, allowing 37.7% from distance on the season.  I think VA Tech's small ball is a matchup nightmare this slow, lengthy Wisconsin squad.

VA Tech is 18-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks trail the Toronto Raptors by two games for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.  They have been coming on strong with a 3-1 record in their last four games with their only loss coming on the road at San Antonio by eight points.

The Hawks have had two days off since losing in San Antonio on Monday, so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight after a 98-91 win in Chicago.  They won't be able to match the effort put forth by the Hawks tonight.

Atlanta has clearly had Memphis' number in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Hawks are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings, winning by 17 points on the road, by 12 points at home and by 15 points on the road.  They have outscored the Grizzlies by a combined 44 points in those three meetings, or an average of nearly 15 points per game.

Memphis is 1-9 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs a team with a winning record.  The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Atlanta.  Roll with the Hawks Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2

I know the Pacers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here today, but oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it.  There's now value with the Pacers laying only two points at home to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.

The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the NBA, going 23-10 at home this season.  The Hornets are just 11-23 on the road this year.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-94 Indiana victory in their last home meeting earlier this season.

The Hornets just can't get anything going.  They are 6-17 in their last 23 games overall.  They certainly don't deserve the respect they are getting from oddsmakers after losing back-to-back home games to the Pelicans and Bulls coming in.

Charlotte is 2-13 ATS after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Indiana is 12-3 ATS in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Hornets are 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall.  Take the Pacers Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on UNC-Greensboro +13

Four days after Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim angered and entire city by saying there was "no value" in the ACC holding its postseason tournament in Greensboro, it was announced that UNC-Greensboro will get its shot at the Orange in the first round of the NIT Wednesday.

A church organization in Greensboro has been selling shirts that read, "Greensboro vs. Boeheim."  And there's no question that Syracuse doesn't want to be in the NIT as it was one of the first teams left out of the NCAA Tournament.  This is a team that made a run to the Final Four last year and could care less about the NIT a season later.

"When you're on the bubble, you can miss, for whatever reason," Boeheim said. "It's heartbreaking because everything today is about the NCAA tournament. It's not just us. There's 20 brokenhearted teams out there that wish they had done one thing better."

Syracuse is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games off a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Greensboro is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  The Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Orange have losses to UConn, Georgetown and St. John's out of conference this season.  Bet UNC-Greensboro Wednesday.

15* 76ers/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +17

The Golden State Warriors continue to be overvalued here Tuesday.  They are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games since losing Kevin Durant to an injury.

Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 17 points against a Philadelphia 76ers team that just keeps covering.  The 76ers are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games overall.  They have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning record.

And the 76ers are going to want revenge from a 108-119 home loss to the Warriors on February 27th in which they covered as 14-point underdogs.  The Warriors had Durant for that game, but they won't for the rematch.  And the Warriors are in a tough spot here as this is their first home game following a stretch in which they played seven of eight games on the road.

The 76ers are 19-6 ATS when revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.  Philadelphia is 25-6 ATS off a road game this season.  The 76ers are 11-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring at least 106 points per game in the second half of the season this season.  The Warriors are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the 76ers Tuesday.

20* Hawks/Spurs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5

The San Antonio Spurs are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are coming off a huge win over the Golden State Warriors, but now they are in a letdown spot tonight.  Plus, the Warriors were without their five best players in game game, so it wasn't too big of a feat.

And the Spurs have a bunch of injury concerns right now.  LaMarcus Aldridge is out indefinitely, Tony Parker is expected to miss this game, and Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a concussion.  Whether or not Leonard plays, the Spurs should not be 6.5-point favorites here.

The Atlanta Hawks are coming on strong, winning three straight coming in.  They are currently the No. 5 seed in the East, just one game behind Toronto for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Look for them to clamp down and try and get that home court, which is exactly what their goal is.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spurs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  San Antonio is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Monday games.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -5

The Indiana Pacers have been a tremendous home team this season.  They are 22-10 on their home court and will be happy to be back home here after playing six of their previous seven games on the road.

This is a tough spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a win over Toronto at home yesterday.  And now they could be without their best player in Goran Dragic, who suffered an eye injury against the Raptors and is doubtful to play tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Indiana and Miami.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.  The home team has also gone 8-1 ATS in those nine contests.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in Sunday home games over the past three seasons, outscoring their opponents by 12.5 points per game on average.  The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games.  The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss by more than 10 points.  These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing Indiana.  Take the Pacers Sunday.

20* Michigan/Wisconsin Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Wisconsin -2

The Wisconsin Badgers got a wake-up call by losing five out of six games toward the end of the regular season.  But they have been dominant since, beating Minnesota by 17, Indiana by 10 and Northwestern by 28 in their last three games.

You have to give the Michigan Wolverines a ton of credit for making the title game considering the hand they were dealt.  Their plane was delayed and they arrived just hours before the Big Ten Tournament.  All they've done is reel off three straight victories.

However, the Wolverines now have to be out of gas, period.  They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin will only be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after receiving a first-round bye.  And the Badgers didn't need to play their starters big minutes yesterday in their 28-point blowout over Northwestern.

Wisconsin has won 5 of its last 6 meetings with Michigan.  The Badgers are 7-1 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more this season.  The Badgers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Wisconsin Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2

Both the Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight.  However, the difference is that Milwaukee gets to stay at home, while Minnesota has to travel after playing at home last night.

And this is a massive letdown spot for the Timberwolves.  They are coming off arguably their biggest win of the season, a sweet 103-102 home victory over the Golden State Warriors.  There's no question they will have a hard time getting up for Milwaukee after that win, and I don't expect them to show up at all tonight.

The Bucks have been on a mission to make the playoffs since the All-Star Break.  They have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Not only are they winning, they are dominating, winning all five games by 7 points or more, and four by double-digits.

The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days' rest.  Milwaukee is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Minnesota.  The Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Bucks Saturday.

20* Iowa State/WVU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +3

The Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City is known as 'Hilton South' because of its close proximity to Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.  Cyclone fans travel extremely well to this tournament, essentially making it a home game for them.

Players cannot help but lay it all on the line with the support their get from their fans in Ames.  And they have responded by going 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine Big 12 Tournament games.

They beat Oklahoma State 92-83 on Thursday and TCU 84-63 on Friday, so they haven't even been tested and will be fresh for the Championship Game today.  Now they'll be looking for revenge on WVU after losing both regular season meetings with the Mountaineers.  They'll also be going for their 3rd Big 12 title in 4 years.

West Virginia has had a much rougher go of it so far in this tournament.  The Mountaineers failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites in a 63-53 win over Texas, and were lucky to escape with a 51-50 victory over Kansas State as 5.5-point favorites yesterday.

Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Saturday games.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Wizards/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +8

The Sacramento Kings are showing excellent value as 8-point home underdogs to the Washington Wizards tonight. The betting public wants nothing to do with the Kings after trading DeMarcus Cousins, but they have been competitive without him, and there lines have been inflated as a result.

The Wizards went into the All-Star Break on fire, but they came out of the break way overvalued because of it, and they continue to be here as 8-point road favorites.  The Wizards are just 3-5 ATS since the break.  They are in a tough spot here as they will be playing their 3rd straight road game in the midst of a 5-game trip.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Washington is 14-30 ATS in its last 44 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Kings Friday.

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond -2.5

The Richmond Spiders closed the regular season strong by going 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their final 11 games, including four straight victories to end it.  Now they've had nearly a week off to get ready for George Washington.

The same cannot be said for the Colonials, who played yesterday in a 53-46 victory over Saint Louis in their first tournament game.  Now they will be the more tired team here and won't be able to match the Spiders' intensity.

Richmond has owned George Washington this season, sweeping the season series with a 7-point road win and a 9-point home victory.  I think this is a very generous 2.5-point spread given the season sweep and the rest advantage for the Spiders.

Richmond is 6-0 ATS off a conference home win this season.  The Colonials are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite.  The Spiders are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Richmond Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -4

The Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City is known as 'Hilton South' because of its close proximity to Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.  Cyclone fans travel extremely well to this tournament, essentially making it a home game for them.

Players cannot help but lay it all on the line with the support their get from their fans in Ames.  And they have responded by going 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight Big 12 Tournament games.  They beat Oklahoma State 92-83 yesterday.

TCU is coming off its biggest win of the season, an 85-82 upset of No. 1 seed Kansas yesterday.  I think it's going to be emotionally tough to come back and play well off such a huge win.  And the Horned Frogs were aided by the fact that Josh Jackson was suspended for the Jayhawks yesterday.

The Horned Frogs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bets on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (IOWA ST) - an explosive offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more three straight games are 66-29 ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Iowa State Friday.

15* Big 12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Baylor here would probably get them in, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

I like the fact that the Big 12 Tournament is played in Kansas City, which will clearly give the Wildcats a home-court edge.  They didn't need home court when they went on the road and beat Baylor 56-54 as 7-point road dogs in their last meeting.

And the Wildcats are playing well here down the stretch, beating TCU 75-74 on the road and thumping Texas Tech 61-48 at home to close out the regular season.  Baylor has been playing mediocre basketball for weeks, going just 5-5 SU in its last 10 contests.

Kansas State is 7-1 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.  The Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.  The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Take Kansas State Thursday.

15* VA Tech/FSU ACC No-Brainer on Florida State -6

There's no question that the 99-90 win over Wake Forest took a lot out of Virginia Tech yesterday.  The Hokies are already playing short-handed without one of their best players in Chris Clarke, who was recently out for the season with an ACL injury.

And now the Hokies won't have much left to give against a Florida State team that had a double-bye into the ACC Tournament.  I'll gladly back the fresher Seminoles here at this short price today.

FSU thumped Virginia Tech 93-78 as 9-point home favorites in their lone meeting this season.  This is a team that I believe has the talent to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, and they're going to take this ACC Tournament seriously as they try and improve their seeding.  The Seminoles are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Roll with Florida State Thursday.

15* Big East Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -6

The Butler Bulldogs had yesterday off to rest up and watch their opponent today in Xavier.  The Musketeers struggled against DePaul, eventually winning 75-64 in what was a much closer game than the final score indicated.

The Musketeers are playing short-handed right now.  Only seven players played yesterday, and three of them played at least 36 minutes.  That puts them at a severe disadvantage here against a Butler team that has already beaten them 83-78 at home and 88-79 on the road.

Xavier's injuries have taken their toll down the stretch.  The Musketeers are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Their only two wins have come against DePaul (twice), while their six losses have all come by 7 points or more.

Xavier is 1-9 ATS as an underdog this season.  Butler is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bulldogs are 39-11-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  Bet Butler Thursday.

25* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville -2.5

The Louisville Cardinals have a huge advantage over the Duke Blue Devils in rest here having not played yesterday.  Meanwhile, Duke played in a grueling 79-72 win over Clemson.  Duke is already short-handed and won't handle this back-to-back situation very well.

Making matters worse for the Blue Devils is that the Cardinals are a pressing team that force you to exert more energy than you're used to just to get the ball past the half-court line.  I think that will take its toll on this short-handed Duke team, and the end result will be a blowout in Louisville's favor.

Louisville is 9-1 ATS after outrebounding its last opponent by 15 or more boards.  The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Blue Devils are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a ATS win.  The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Louisville is 19-13 ATS in its last 42 neutral site games, while Duke is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 neutral site affairs.  Bet Louisville Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Hornets +4

The Miami Heat are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers in a home-and-home situation.  It's only human nature for them to not show up tonight against the Charlotte Hornets off those two monstrous wins.

And the Hornets aren't a team to be taken lightly with the way they are playing right now.  They are chasing down a playoff spot in the East and have gone 4-2 in their last six contests.  One of the losses was a 3-point road loss to the Clippers in OT.  They beat Indiana by 12 at home and Denver by 10 on the road in their last two contests.

The Heat are dealing with a plethora of injuries that could hold them back tonight.  Tyler Johnson, James Johnson and Luke Babbitt are all questionable for the Heat.  Charlotte has owned Miami this season with a 2-0 record and a 9-point home win as well as a 6-point road victory.

Charlotte is 11-2 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half over the last three seasons.  Miami is 17-33 ATS after having won three of its last four games over the past three seasons.  The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on TCU -2.5

This is a rematch from the final game of the regular season in which Oklahoma beat TCU 73-68 at home.  Now they face each other four days later on a neutral court in the Big 12 Tournament, and I'm backing the Horned Frogs to get revenge in a big way.

The Horned Frogs are much better than their 17-14 record this season as they have been snake-bitten all year in close games.  They have lost seven straight coming in, but four of those losses have come by 5 points or less.  They have a chance to right the ship now here in this Big 12 Tournament.

Lon Kruger is 5-15 ATS in March road games as the coach of Oklahoma.  The Sooners are just 1-9 in all road games this season.  The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have quit.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing all four games by 15 points or more.  That includes their 57-83 laugher at home against Michigan in the season finale on Senior Day.

Penn State also enters the Big Ten Tournament on a 5-game losing streak, but it has at least been competitive against some quality teams.  The Nittany Lions lost by 4 to Purdue, by 10 at Minnesota, by 1 to Ohio State and by 11 at Iowa.

Penn State is 59-38 ATS in its last 97 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. losing teams.  The Nittany Lions are 12-3-1 ATS int heir last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Cornhuskers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

20* Blazers/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -6

Off three straight road losses, the Oklahoma City Thunder return home highly motivated for a victory to end this skid.  They are 23-8 at home this season and have won seven of their last eight home contests with their only loss coming to the Warriors.

Now they face an overrated Portland Trail Blazers team that is coming off two straight home wins, but now hits the road where they are just 10-22 SU & 11-21 ATS on the season.  They have lost three of their last four road games all by 6 points or more.

Adding to the Thunder's motivation tonight is the fact that they just recently lost to the Blazers within the last week 109-114 on the road on March 2nd.  Now they will be out for revenge in the rematch at home.

The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Thunder are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blazers, winning those four contests by an average of 16.3 points per game.  Expect another home blowout for OKC tonight.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  They need to win at least a couple games in this ACC Tournament to get in, and I expect them to start that mission with success tonight against Pittsburgh.

The Yellow Jackets have been undervalued all season in ACC play, and they are again lacking the respect they deserve here as underdogs.  They are 8-10 SU but 12-6 ATS in ACC action this season.  One of those was a 61-52 home victory as 1.5-point favorites over this same Pitt squad.

The Panthers are just 4-14 SU & 9-9 ATS in ACC play this season.  They didn't play with much effort down the stretch as they went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games.  They lost by 18 to UNC, by 9 to Georgia Tech and by 25 to Virginia in their final three games of the season.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

Both the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losses in Washington and New York yesterday, respectively.  But I like this spot a lot more for the Magic than I do for the Knicks.

The reason is that the Knicks will suffer an emotional letdown here.  They just played the Golden State Warriors at home yesterday, and they certainly won't be able to get up for the Magic like they were for the Warriors.  I look for them to come out flat as a pancake tonight.

I backed the Magic yesterday as 12.5-point dogs in a 114-115 road loss to the Wizards in a game they should have won.  I like the way they are playing of late as they are 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat the Hawks by 19 at home and the Heat by 11 at home despite being underdogs in both games.

Strangely, the other loss besides the Wizards came at home to these same Knicks on March 1st.  However, I think that makes this a great spot to back the Magic because they will be out for revenge from that defeat.  There's no question in my mind Orlando will be the more motivated team in this game as a result.

The Knicks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on 0 days' rest.  New York is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 Monday games.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday games.   Bet the Magic Monday.

15* MAC Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +8.5

Central Michigan could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now heading into the MAC Tournament.  That's because the Chippewas were awful to finish the regular season, going 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Now the Chippewas find themselves catching a whopping 8.5 points on the road against a Kent State team that they already beat 105-98 as 6.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.  I think they have the potential to pull off the upset again here tonight.

Kent State has been winning, but it hasn't been winning by margins.  In fact, each of the Golden Flashes' last eight victories have all come by 8 points or less.  They haven't won any of their last 12 games by more than 8 points, making for a perfect 12-0 system going against them pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Golden Flashes are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +10.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now.  They were on fire entering the All Star Break, but they have been lackluster since, yet they are still getting treated like one of the best teams in the league as double-digit favorites here over the Orlando Magic.

The  Wizards are just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their five games since the break.  They have lost two home games during this stretch to Utah (by 10) and Toronto (by 8).  They also lost on the road to Philadelphia (by 8).  I don't think the way they're playing right now warrants them being double-digit favorites here.

The Magic have come back from the break with new life and determination.  They have won two of their last three outright as underdogs.  The beat Atlanta (by 19) as 3.5-point home dogs and Miami (by 11) as 4.5-point home dogs.

This has been a closely contested series as each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Magic won 124-116 as 2.5-point dogs in their lone trip to Washington earlier this season.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* Purdue/Northwestern Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +4

The Purdue Boilermakers have already clinched the Big Ten regular season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.  They literally have nothing to play for here Sunday, while the Northwestern Wildcats are still trying to punch their tickets to the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats will bring a lot of emotion and energy to this game Sunday.  They are trying to become the first team in program history to make the NCAA Tournament.  It's Senior Day, and Welsh-Ryan Arena will be shut down after the game for a major renovation expected to take more than a year.

Northwestern is 14-3 at home this season.  Purdue is just 5-4 in true road games.  The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Northwestern is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Take Northwestern Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +8

The San Antonio Spurs are in a brutal spot here.  They just recently concluded their eight-game rodeo road trip, and they haven't been sharp in their two games since.  They only beat Indiana 100-99 as 10-point favorites and needed overtime to beat New Orleans 101-98 as 6-point favorites.

That overtime game is important because the Spurs will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  Both Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge played 40 minutes last night against the Pelicans.  Don't be surprised if Greg Popovich either rests some starters or limits their minutes here.

Don't look now but the Timberwolves are playing some great basketball.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They won at Denver by 13, beat Dallas at home by 13, won at Sacramento by 14 and won at Utah by 27.  Now they have had two days off since that blowout win over the Jazz having last played on Wednesday.

Minnesota is 29-13 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Kansas/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  They have gone 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Their only losses during this stretch have come by 3 to Baylor and by 3 at Iowa State, which are two of the top teams in the conference.

Now the Cowboys want to end the regular season on a high note with a home victory over the Kansas Jayhawks on Senior Day.  They'll obviously be highly motivated to win this game, especially after hanging tough in an 80-87 loss at Kansas in their first meeting.

I think this is an extreme flat spot for the Jayhawks, who have already wrapped up the Big 12.  The Jayhawks were lackluster in a 73-63 home win over Oklahoma last time out as 14.5-point favorites.  They actually trailed in that game in the second half.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency today, either.

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  Kansas is 3-10 ATS following six or more consecutive wins this season.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech -2

For whatever reason, Virginia Tech continues to lack the respect it deserves when playing at home.  The Hokies are 15-1 at home this season and now they're only laying 2 points to a mediocre Wake Forest team today.

They are only laying 2 points despite the fact that they have been underdogs in each of their last three home games, yet won all three outright over Virginia, Clemson and Miami.  Now they're up against a Wake Forest team that is just 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS in true road games this year.

Wake Forest is 2-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS win.  The Hokies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Virginia Tech is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Spurs/Pelicans ESPN Friday No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans were a little lost in their first few games back from the break.  They had to implement DeMarcus Cousins into the lineup, and while he and Anthony Davis have put up monster numbers, they have been asked to do too much.

I think having Cousins suspended for their last game helped the rest of the players know that they needed to step up their games.  And they did just that in a dominant 109-86 win over Detroit.  Now Cousins returns to the lineup tonight and I look for them to play well again here as 7-point home dogs to the Spurs.

San Antonio just finished up its 8-game Rodeo Road Trip.  The Spurs were flat in their first game back home, barely escaping with a 100-99 win over Indiana as 10-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to lay too big of a number here in their first game back on the road tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series, especially for the Pelicans.  The home team is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Pelicans are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Spurs.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* Iowa State/WVU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +8

The Iowa State Cyclones continue to get no respect from oddsmakers here as 8-point road underdogs to the West Virginia Mountaineers.  This despite the fact that they are playing their best basketball of the season coming in, and at 12-5 in Big 12 play, can secure second place alone in the conference with a win here tonight.

The Cyclones are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes outright road wins as underdogs at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech.  Iowa State has actually won a whopping five Big 12 road games this season, which is very impressive in arguably the toughest conference in the country.

The Cyclones are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.  Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Take Iowa State Friday.

20* Cal/Utah ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -1.5

The Utah Utes are showing excellent value as small 1.5-point home favorites over the Cal Bears tonight.  The Utes are 12-3 at home this season, while the Bears are just 3-4 in true road games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  And Cal beat Utah 77-75 at home in their first meeting this season, so the Utes will be in clear revenge mode here tonight.

Utah is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Golden Bears are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Utes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Utah Thursday.

15* Warriors/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +8

The Chicago Bulls have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They struggle against poor teams, but do very well against good teams, as indicated by the fact that they are 3-0 against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers this year with three outright upsets.

Now they take on the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I can't believe the Warriors are laying 7.5 points on the road to the Bulls here considering they will be without their best player in Kevin Durant, who suffered a hyperextended knee on Tuesday in the second of a back-to-back against the Wizards.

So the Warriors will now be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Bulls will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  And the Bulls will clearly be motivated to bounce back from an ugly 125-107 loss to Denver last time out.

Chicago is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games off a loss by 10 points or more.  Golden State is 5-13 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Bulls Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are trying to chase down a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They have won four of thier last six coming in with their only losses coming to two of the best teams in the NBA in Utah and Cleveland.

The Bucks host the Denver Nuggets tonight, who are in a very tough rest situation.  The Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days coming out of the break.  They won't have a lot left in the tank for the Bucks tonight.

The Nuggets are just 11-19 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Denver is 1-9 ATS off a road win this season.  The Nuggets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off an upset win as a road underdog.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics come into tonight's action highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost three of their last four coming in and will certainly be amped up to face the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

They have hung tough in their first two meetings with the Cavaliers this season, both of which were in Cleveland.  They lost by 6 as 10.5-point dogs and by 6 as 6-point dogs.  Now they get the Cavs at home for the first time, and the Celtics are 20-9 at home this season.  Plus, the Cavs are without Kevin Love and JR Smith this go-round.

Bets on home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 50-19 (72.5%) ATS since 1996.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern PK

The Northwestern Wildcats will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost five of their last seven to fall to 20-9 on the season and somewhat in jeopardy of missing the tournament.  Look for them to stem the tide and get a big home win tonight.

Northwestern is 13-3 at home this season.  Meanwhile, Michigan is just 2-7 in true road games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.

I think the Wolverines come in overvalued due to winning five of their last six, while the Wildcats are undervalued right now.  Plus, this is a letdown spot for Michigan off a huge win over Purdue last time out.  I don't think the Wolverines will want this one as bad as the Wildcats.

Michigan is 0-7 ATS after having won five or six of its last seven games this season.  The Wolverines are 1-8 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Wildcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Northwestern Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech -2

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  This is clearly a must-win game for them tonight, and it's also Senior Night, so they'll be highly motivated for a victory over the Pitt Panthers.

The Yellow Jackets are 14-4 at home this season.  They have pulled off outright upsets over the likes of Syracuse, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina at home this year.  Getting them as only 2-point favorites over Pitt is a gift here.

The Panthers are just 4-12 in ACC play this season.  They have only won two true road games all season, going 2-6 in them.  They simply don't have a lot to play for right now and won't be playing with a sense of urgency like the Yellow Jackets will be.

Georgia Tech is a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games this season.  The Panthers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 Tuesday games.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are on fire right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have beaten Kansas on the road and Baylor at home during this stretch.  This is a team that is hitting on all cylinders right now and should be bigger home favorites over Oklahoma State tonight.

The Cyclones are in second place in the Big 12 right now, so they will be highly motivated to get that No. 2 seed.  Plus, it's Senior Night Tuesday, and this is a senior-laden squad.  In fact, six seniors play significant minutes for this team in Monte Morris, Naz Mitrou-Long, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton, Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie.

Oklahoma State is starting to get a lot of love from oddsmakers due to going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  But the Cowboys haven't played Kansas during this stretch, they lost at home to Baylor, and their only real quality win came against West Virginia on the road.

Iowa State has dominated this series, winning eight straight meetings with Oklahoma State while going 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Cyclones won 96-86 on the road in their first meeting this season.  The Cyclones are 53-20 ATS in their last 73 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less or PK.  The Cowboys are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Iowa State Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Wizards NBA TV No-Brainer on Washington +7

The Golden State Warriors are in a tough spot here tonight and should not be this heavily favored on the road against the Washington Wizards as a result.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-108 win in Philadelphia last night.

The Wizards were red hot going into the break, but they have put together two lackluster performances since the break in a 112-120 road loss to Philadelphia and a 92-102 home loss to Utah.  However, I think those two efforts have them undervalued now, and they will certainly be 'all in' tonight against the Warriors.

The Wizards are 24-8 at home this season, but they have enjoyed one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past couple months.  Indeed, Washington is 19-2 SU in its last 21 home games.  One of the losses was an OT loss to the defending champion Cavaliers in which Lebron James banked in a 3 at the buzzer to force OT.

The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on 0 days' rest.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win.  The Wizards are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +1.5

The Virginia Tech Hokies are the gift that keeps on giving.  They are consistently undervalued by oddsmakers, and that has really been the case down the stretch.  Now they are home dogs to the Miami Hurricanes Monday when they should be the favorites.

All the Hokies have done is go a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won four games outright with their only losses coming by 6 as 6.5-point dogs at Miami and by 4 as 13-point dogs at Louisville.  That also places the Hokies in revenge mode here after losing on the road to the Hurricanes on February 8th.

Miami is in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  The Hurricanes are coming off a huge upset home win over Duke on Saturday and clearly won't be as focused for this game now.  They will be up against a VA Tech team that is 14-1 at home this season.

Miami is 3-11 ATS as a road favorite or PK over the last three seasons.  VA Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  TheHurricanes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing excellent value Monday night as 14-point home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors.  Of course, the 76ers haven't been getting any credit from oddsmakers all season, so why would they start now?

The 76ers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They are 4-3 SU during this stretch as well with all three losses coming by single-digits.  They beat a very good Washington team 120-112 at home as 9.5-point dogs in their first game back from the break.  Now they'll give the Warriors a run for their money tonight.

Philadelphia has been extremely competitive at home this season, going 14-16 SU & 21-8-1 ATS.  The fans are starting to finally come out to support this team, and it will be close to a packed house tonight with the Warriors coming to town.

The 76ers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games.  They are 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Warriors, losing by 12 as 21.5-point road dogs, by 3 as 16.5-point home dogs and by 5 as 15.5-point home dogs. Take the 76ers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards -2.5

The Washington Wizards haven't dropped back-to-back games in nearly two months.  I don't think they are about to start now considering they are playing at home Sunday and will be hungry to bounce back from their loss at Philadelphia in their first game back from the break.

Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 games overall.  The Wizards are a ridiculous 19-1 in their last 20 home games.  Their only loss came to the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers after Lebron James banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime.

Utah is 2-10 ATS as a road underdog this season.  Washington is 8-1 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games.  Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Sunday games.  The Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  The Jazz are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Wizards Sunday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier +2

The Butler Bulldogs are primed for a letdown here Sunday.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-66 upset road win as 10-point underdogs at Villanova.  They clearly won't be up for this game against Xavier like they were against Villanova.

Conversely, Xavier will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to end a four-game losing streak.  The Musketeers have fallen victim to a brutal schedule with a home game against Villanova, and road losses to Providence, Marquette and Seton Hall during this stretch.

The Musketeers will also be out for revenge from a 78-83 road loss at Butler on January 14th in their first meeting this season.  The Musketeers were also without leading scorer Trevon Blueitt for a few games during their losing streak, but he's back healthy.  And Xavier is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Butler.

Xavier is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  The Musketeers are 12-2 at home this season.  The Musketeers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  The Bulldogs are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet Xavier Sunday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats can pretty much lock up the Pac-12 title with a victory here Saturday at home against UCLA.  They would need to win this game and their next game at lowly Arizona State to win the Pac-12.  That has been their goal all season, and with it now within reach, I look for them to capitalize on it.

Arizona already dominated UCLA 96-85 on the road as 5-point underdogs int heir first meeting this season.  They were the more physical team in that game and outrebounded the Bruins 42-33.  They will have the edge in physicality again, and this time they'll have the support of their home fans.

That's important because Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game on average.  The Wildcats are coming off a 13-point home win over USC.  They are 14-4 SU in their last 18 home meetings with UCLA.

UCLA is 2-8 ATS when revenging a loss vs opponent this season.  The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  UCLA is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games overall.  The Wildcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

Simply put, the Charlotte Hornets are due.  They have lost five straight and 12 of their last 13 games overall.  They blew a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter at Detroit on Thursday and eventually lost in OT.  They have had several of these excruciating losses during this stretch.

But now the Hornets have a great chance to end this skid against a Sacramento Kings team that just lost their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.  The Denver Nuggets clearly didn't take the Kings seriously on Thursday and lost 100-116.  But the Hornets can't afford to overlook the Kings now if they want to get back in the playoff race.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - off two or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 63-22 (74.1%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Hornets Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1.5

Quietly, the Iowa State Cyclones are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won road games at Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech, while dominating their only two home games during this stretch in a 16-point win over Oklahoma and a 13-point win over TCU.

As most of you should know, Iowa State has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside Hilton Coliseum.  And now the Cyclones will be out for revenge from their heartbreaking 63-65 loss at Baylor in their first meeting this season on a last-second shot.

Baylor is clearly ripe for the picking right now as the Bears are blowing their shot at a No. 1 overall seed.  Indeed, the Bears are 3-4 SU & 3-4 ATS in their last seven games.  They lost at home to both Kansas and Kansas State, while also losing on the road to Texas Tech.  Even their 60-54 home win as 13-point favorites over Oklahoma last time out was lackluster.

Iowa State is a sensational 26-4 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or PK.  Baylor is 1-9 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 trips to Ames, Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* Oregon State/Cal CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +18

The Cal Golden Bears blew a 16-point lead against Oregon and lost 65-68 on a buzzer-beater by Dillon Brooks.  They were up 10 with four minutes left before committing a ton of turnovers down the stretch to blow it.  I think they'll suffer a hangover from that defeat.

Now the Golden Bears will have to try and get the motivation to face the worst team in the Pac-12 in the Oregon State Beavers just two days later after losing to Oregon on Wednesday.  They beat the Beavers 69-58 as 14-point road favorites on January 21st in their first meeting, and now they're being asked to lay a whopping 18 points in the rematch.

Oregon State has been way undervalued here of late and cashing tickets for bettors willing to back them.  The Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They keep catching huge numbers and covering, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as double-digit underdogs.

The Beavers are 9-1 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams as an underdog or pick (OREGON ST) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, terrible team, winning 20% or less of their games on the season are 218-137 (61.4%) ATS since 1997.  Roll with Oregon State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +8

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no respect from oddsmakers despite the fact that they've gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall as well coming into the All-Star Break.

The Washington Wizards are now overvalued due to the way they went into the break, winning four straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall.  They are now being asked to lay 8 points on the road here, which is simply too much, and the value is clearly with the home side.

The 76ers have played the Wizards extremely tough in their last two home meetings.  They won their lone home meeting this season 109-102 as 6.5-point dogs.  They only lost 94-99 as 9-point dogs in their final home meeting last season as well.

In fact, Philadelphia is a sensational 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 10-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 106-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Philadelphia.  Take the 76ers Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers +1

The Indiana Pacers come out of the All-Star Break way undervalued due to heading into the break on a 6-game losing streak.  But that was a brutal stretch for them as they had to play 6 games in 9 days against some of the best teams in the NBA in Cleveland (twice), Washington (twice), San Antonio and Milwaukee.

The Pacers will be highly motivated for a win here at home to end this streak, and they'll be feeling refreshed and ready to make a run at the playoffs.  The Pacers have protected their home court well this season, going 20-10 SU in home games.

"We have to be better," said Pacers Coach Nate McMillan. "We lost six games. Of course it was against some tough teams, but it showed us we are not where we need to be. Our focus is on getting better and getting ourselves prepared for Memphis."

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing three or less games in 10 days are 72-36 (66.7%) ATS since 1996.  Memphis is 3-16 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +3

The Portland Trail Blazers made a move before the deadline by trading Mason Plumlee to Denver that signified they are pretty much giving up on this season and looking forward to the future.  They also played like a team that had quit before the break, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their final six games.

The Orlando Magic have also gone 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and they made a smart move by trading Serge Ibaka instead of letting him walk for nothing.  It wasn't a move showing they quit, it was just smart business decision, and I like this young team's mindset heading into the second half.

"Right now, we're 0-0," coach Frank Vogel said. "We're not going to focus on the standings and how many games we've got to make up or anything like that. We're going to focus on bringing maximum effort to practice and maximum focus into the game planning and preparations and all the little habits that our young players need to develop."

Portland is 9-20 SU & 10-19 ATS in road games this season.  The Magic are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Portland, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four home meetings.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on George Washington -4.5

The George Washington Colonials are showing great value as only 4.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen tonight.  They have gone 5-4 in their last nine games overall with their only losses coming to the class of the Atlantic 10.

UMass is one of the worst teams in the conference at 3-11 SU & 3-11 ATS in Atlantic 10 play this season.  The Minutemen have gone 1-7 SU in their last eight games and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.  I think they continue to be getting too much respect from oddsmakers here tonight.

The Colonials are 10-3 at home this season, while the Minutemen are just 3-8 in true road games.  George Washington has dominated UMass in the last three meetings, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while winning by 11, 22 and 8 points, respectively.

UMass is 0-6 ATS in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Minutemen are 0-10 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Colonials.  Take George Washington Thursday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -3.5

I really like the short price we are getting here with the Arkansas Razorbacks, who at 20-7 on the season are likely on their way to the NCAA Tournament.  They are 13-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by nearly 12 points per game on the season.

The Razorbacks are putting up 84.4 points per game on 47.6% shooting at home this year.  They'll be up against a Texas A&M team that is just 2-6 in true road games, getting outscoring by nearly 8 points per game.  One of their road wins was against lowly LSU.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings.  The lone exception was when Arkansas went into Texas A&M and won 62-60 as 5-point underdogs on January 17th in their first meeting this season.

The Razorbacks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  The Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after a game where they made 57% or better from the field and allowed 43% or lower.  Bet Arkansas Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech -4

Georgia Tech is right on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Yellow Jackets have gone 14-3 at home this season with signature upsets over UNC, Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame and Syracuse.  Josh Pastner is doing as good of a job as anyone in his first season at Georgia Tech.

NC State is a dumpster fire right now.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Head coach Mark Godfried has been fired, but he's been allowed to finish out the season, which is almost unheard of.  The Wolfpack are a mess right now and can't be trusted.

Georgia Tech went on the road and beat NC State 86-76 as 9.5-point dogs in the first meeting this season.  Now they're only being asked to lay 4 points at home in the rematch, which I believe is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more this season.  The Wolfpack are 2-10 ATS as underdogs this season.  NC State is 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

15* SC/Florida ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on South Carolina +9

The Florida Gators are being overvalued right now due to their eight-game winning streak.  That has shown of late as they have failed to cover two of their last three.  They only beat Texas A&M by 9 as 11-point home favorites and Mississippi State by 5 as 10.5-point road favorites.

Conversely, South Carolina comes in undervalued due to losing two straight and going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Gamecocks are still one of the top teams in the SEC despite this recent slide, and they are certainly better than this 9-point spread would indicate.  Five of their seven losses this season have come by single-digits.

South Carolina beat Florida 57-53 at home earlier this season.  Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.  The Gators are also 0-11 ATS after a combined score of 115 points or less over the past three years.  Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +8

Penn State has been a quality home team this season at 9-5 SU & 7-4 ATS in lined games.  The Nittany Lions beat Maryland 70-64 as 3.5-point dogs in their last home games.  After back-to-back road games at Illinois and Nebraska, they'll be looking forward to playing at home tonight.

Penn State will also be out for revenge from a 52-77 loss at Purdue in their first meeting this season.  Now the Nittany Lions will be playing with a full week of rest having played last Tuesday on February 14th.  Meanwhile, Purdue just played on Saturday, getting only two days to prepare for the Nittany Lions.  That's a huge edge in rest and preparation for the home squad here.

The Boilermakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  The Nittany Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Penn State is 7-1 ATS in home games where the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.  Take Penn State Tuesday.

20* Iowa State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -1.5

Texas Tech is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and needs a strong finish to the regular season to get in.  That makes tonight's game against Iowa State a must-win for them.  I expect them to get the job done here.

Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall while playing some tremendous basketball along the way.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma by 8, lost by 1 at TCU as 3.5-point dogs, lost by 1 to Kansas as 4.5-point dogs, beat Baylor by 6 as 2.5-point dogs, and lost in OT at West Virginia as 10-point dogs.

As you can see, the Red Raiders have proven they can play with the best teams in the Big 12.  Now they'll be up against an Iowa State team that comes in overvalued due to three straight victories and four of their last five overall.  The Cyclones are just 4-5 in true road games this season, while the Red Raiders are 15-2 at home.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last two seasons.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last two years.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 trips to Lubbock.  Bet Texas Tech Monday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois State -7.5

The Illinois State Redbirds are a legitimate bubble team in terms of the NCAA Tournament at 22-5 on the season.  They really can't afford another loss if they want to make the big dance, unless it comes in the conference championship game to Wichita State.

Illinois State just returned second-leading scorer Mikyle McIntosh (13.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) from a five-game absence due to a knee injury.  Having him healthy moving forward is going to be huge for them.  He and Deontae Hawkins (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) form the best frontcourt duo in the MVC.

Illinois State beat Loyola-Chicago 81-59 as 1-point road favorites in their first meeting this season.  Now the Redbirds get them at home, where they are 13-0 on the season and outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game.  The Ramblers have lost four of their last five coming in and I don't give them much of a chance of being competitive here.

The Redbirds are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.  Illinois State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games off an ATS loss.  Illinois State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Illinois State Sunday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -3

The Marquette Golden Eagles have gone in a funk since upsetting Villanova at home on January 24th.  They have lost four of their last five games since, and now they are in jeopardy of falling on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament Bubble.  I think this is a 'rally the troops' type of game at home against Xavier on Saturday.

Xavier has some serious injury concerns right now.  The Musketeers have been without by Myles Davis and Edmond Sumner (15.0 ppg, 5.0 apg), and Trevon Bluiett (17.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) missed their last game, a 63-75 loss at Providence.  Sumner and Bluiett are their two leading scores, and they could be without both again Saturday.

Marquette is 11-3 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 14.4 points per game.  Xavier is just 3-6 in true road games with its only wins coming at Georgetown (by 5), St. Johns (by 5) and Creighton (by 2).  Keep in mind that Creighton didn't have its best player in Mo Watson Jr for that game.

Xavier is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season.  The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS after playing a road game this season.   The Musketeers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Marquette Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan State +10

Like clockwork, the Michigan State Spartans are starting to play their best basketball of the season late in the year under Tom Izzo.  It happens every season, yet oddsmakers fail to adjust for it.

That has been the case again in 2017 as the Spartans are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Now they find themselves catching double-digits on the road against Purdue Saturday, which is simply too much.

Now the Spartans will be out for revenge from a 73-84 home loss to Purdue earlier this season.  That was a rare win for the Boilermakers in this series.  The Spartans are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Boilermakers.  It was the only time that Purdue has won by double-digits over this stretch.

Michigan State is 9-1 ATS in February games over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 9-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three years.  Michigan State is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 Big Ten games.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Purdue.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2

The Baylor Bears want revenge from a 68-73 loss as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks in their first meeting on February 1st.  I think they get their revenge just over two weeks later in blowout fashion at home this time around.

In that first meeting, the Bears dominated the boards by rebounding 40% of their own misses on the offensive end.  Baylor ranks 9th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, while Kansas ranks 214th in defensive rebounding.  That's a huge fundamental edge that the Bears are going to have once again in this rematch.

I don't think Kansas has much left in the tank right now.  It is going through arguably the toughest stretch that any team has played in the country.  Here is a look at the KenPom rantings of the teams they have played in their last eight games: @WVU (#4), @Kentucky (#7), Baylor (#8), Iowa State (#26), @K-State (#28), @Texas Tech (#37), WVU (#4), @ Baylor (#8).

Kansas' star trio of Devonte Graham, Frank Mason and Josh Jackson have been overworked.  Graham and Mason have played 262 of a possible 290 minutes in their past seven games, while Jackson has played 250.  And the Jayhawks are in a prime letdown spot here after their huge 14-point comeback victory over West Virginia in the final minutes on Monday.  They have a two-game lead in the conference standings and don't need this game as much as Baylor does.

The Bears are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 17 points per game on average.  Kansas is 1-7 ATS off a win by 6 points or less this season.  Baylor is 7-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Jayhawks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Big 12 games.  The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* VCU/Richmond ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Richmond +5.5

The Richmond Spiders want revenge from a 74-81 road loss at VCU as 10.5-point underdogs in their first meeting on February 1st.  Now they get their shot just two weeks later and will be ready to go at home this time around as 5.5-point dogs.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.  Richmond hasn't lost any of its last six home meetings with VCU by more than 6 points, which is significant because the Rams have been good for a long time now.

Richmond is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season.  Off a poor defensive performance against George Mason last time out, I look for the Spiders to clamp down defensively here tonight against the Rams.

VCU is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game this season.  The Spiders are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as home underdogs, and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as dogs overall.  Bet Richmond Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco +21.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They are not only 26-0 SU on the season, but also 18-4 ATS in lined games.  The betting public has made a killing on them this season, and oddsmakers simply cannot allow them to continue to do so.

As a result, they will inflate Gonzaga lines going forward.  And this one is clearly inflated.  Plus, it's the ultimate letdown spot for the Zags as they are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 74-64 victory at St. Mary's on ESPN Saturday night.  They won't be able to get up for San Francisco tonight.

San Francisco is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Dons have gone 18-9 on the season and are one of the best teams in the WCC.  This is a team that has been a great bet on the road over the past several years as well.

San Francisco is 106-63 ATS in its last 169 conference road games.  The Dons are 8-1 ATS off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 following a double-digit home loss.  Take San Francisco Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Connecticut -3

After a disastrous start to the season, the UConn Huskies are starting to play up to their potential of late.  And now they'll want revenge from a 61-70 loss at Memphis back on January 5th in their first meeting of the season.

The Huskies have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall.  Their only loss came on the road at Cincinnati.  They beat ECU at home, South Florida by 21 on the road, Tulane by 10 at home, South Florida by 46 at home and upset UCF by 3 as 4.5-point road dogs during this stretch.

Memphis has been blown out quite a bit here of late.  It is 3-3 in its last six games overall with all three losses coming by double-digits.  The only three victories came against ECU (by 7), South Florida (by 10) and Tulsa.  These are two teams going in opposite directions right now.

Memphis is 10-21 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  UConn is 33-13 ATS in its last 46 off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Roll with Connecticut Thursday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago +1.5

The Boston Celtics are absolutely gassed right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days tonight.  They just beat Philly 116-108 last night.  Isaiah Thomas played 34 minutes, Marcus Smart played 34 and Jae Crowder played 35.

The Bulls had yesterday off after a big 105-94 home win over Toronto on Tuesday.  It marked the return of Jimmy Butler to the lineup, and the Bulls won outright as 4.5-point dogs.  They'd love to go into the All-Star Break with another victory here tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Chicago and Boston.  Indeed, the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Bulls have won each of their last three home meetings with the Celtics in this series.

Boston is 1-13 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on TCU -2

The TCU Horned Frogs are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they are starting to play themselves on the right side of it after winning three of their last four games overall.  I look for them to continue their excellent play at home tonight against Oklahoma State.

TCU is 13-3 at home this season while outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game.  Two of the three losses have come to Kansas and Baylor, the two best teams in the Big 12.  The Horned Frogs will be out for revenge from a 76-89 loss at Oklahoma State in their first meeting this season.

The Cowboys come in overvalued due to winning six of their last seven games overall.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  TCU won outright as home dogs to Oklahoma State 63-56 and 70-55 in its last two home meetings.

TCU is 6-0 ATS in Wednesday home games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma State is 44-75 ATS in its last 119 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Cowboys are 13-37-3 ATS in their last 53 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.  Bet TCU Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +11

Te San Antonio Spurs are in the midst of their 8-game Rodeo Road Trip.  They haven't exactly started this trip well at all, going 1-4 ATS in their first five games.  Now they are being asked to lay double-digits on the road to the Orlando Magic.

I think Orlando is one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now.  The Magic proved that last time out by upsetting the Heat 116-107 as 8-point road dogs.  The betting public is putting too much stock into the Serge Ibaka trade here, but the Magic won't miss him as much as most anticipate.

The Magic have been a great bet against the Spurs in this head-to-head series.  Indeed, they have covered three straight while going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  That includes a 95-83 outright win as 12.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season.

Plays on underdogs (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 56-19 (74.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern -2

The Northwestern Wildcats are on a mission to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever.  A home win over Maryland Wednesday would go a long way in putting them on the right side of the bubble.

The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country at 19-6 on the season.  They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being undervalued by oddsmakers.  That includes a 66-59 win at Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs last time out.

Maryland is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to an easy schedule up to this point.  That is starting to show of late as the Terrapins have lost two of their last three coming in.  Now they'll be up against a Wildcats team that is 12-2 at home this season and winning by 14.7 points per game on average.

The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Northwestern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Wildcats are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a straight up win.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

20* Kings/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Lakers have slowly gotten healthy over the past few weeks and are now at full strength.  It's no surprise that this recent return to health has had the Lakers playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have consistently been undervalued, and they continue to be tonight as only 1-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings.  We'll gladly take advantage and back them in a game that they basically just have to win to cover.

The Lakers come in well-rested and ready to go, getting three days off after last playing on Friday.  The Kings are overvalued right now due to winning four of their last five during a six-game home stand.  But now they hit the road, where they are just 11-17 on the season, while the Lakers are a respectable 12-13 at home.

Plays on any team (LA LAKERS) - after allowing 105 points or more three straight games against opponent after a win by 6 points or less are 79-42 (65.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.  The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska -3

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are finally healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward.  They just recently returned their best big man in third-leading scorer Ed Morrow (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg), who had 13 rebounds in a 69-70 (OT) home loss to Wisconsin in his return from injury in Nebraska's last contest.

That game was five days ago last Thursday, so they have had plenty of time to recover and get ready for Penn State.  Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions played on Saturday and have only had two days to get ready for the Huskers.  And I believe they come in overvalued due to back-to-back upset victories over Maryland and Illinois, which followed an ugly home loss to Rutgers.

Nebraska is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four home meetings with Penn State as Big Ten opponents.  They have won those games by 14, 13, 14 and 12 points, or by an average of 13.3 points per game.  Look for this home domination to continue here Tuesday night.

Nebraska is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent.  The Cornhuskers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Nebraska Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -2

The New Orleans Pelicans are in a very difficult spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in four days after losing 99-105 on the road to the Sacramento Kings last night.

Making matters worse for the Pelicans is that they are pretty short-handed right now as Terrence Jones and E'Twaun Moore are questionable, while Buddy Hield is also questionable due to a possible suspension.

The Suns come in on one days' rest after having Sunday off.  They will be out for revenge from a 106-111 road loss to the Pelicans exactly a week ago on February 6th.  But the Pelicans will be the road team this time around, and they are just 7-19 SU & 11-14-1 ATS on the highway this season.

The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Suns are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS loss.  Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Suns are 50-23-3 ATS in their last 76 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* WVU/Kansas ESPN Big Monday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5

The Kansas Jayhawks want revenge from their worst loss of the season, a 69-85 road loss at West Virginia on January 24th just three weeks ago.  I fully expect them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home in a hostile atmosphere on ESPN's Big Monday.

The Jayhawks had won 54 straight home games prior to losing to Iowa State in their last home contest, which will have them focused to start a new streak as well.  They are 11-1 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 17.0 points per game.  Rarely will you ever find them at home as this small of favorites.

The Jayhawks are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Mountaineers.  These games have rarely been close as all four wins came by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.3 points per game.  Given the importance of this game to the Jayhawks' streak of Big 12 championships, they'll be fully focused tonight to keep it going.

West Virginia is 17-34 ATS in its last 51 road games off two consecutive conference wins.  Bill Self is 14-2 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  He'll have the Jayhawks ready to roll tonight.  Bet Kansas Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Miami Heat just had their incredible 13-game winning streak snapped with a 109-117 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday.  It was the longest winning streak in NBA history for a team under .500.

Now, it's only human nature that the Heat will suffer an emotional letdown the game after having that streak come to and end.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they lost outright to the Orlando Magic tonight.  It's also their first game back home following a four-game road trip, which is always a tricky situation.

The Heat are clearly still being overvalued here due to that winning streak as they are being asked to lay 9 points to the Magic.  It's the perfect storm really because the Magic have lost four straight themselves coming in, so they are undervalued.

Orlando is 18-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last three seasons.  Plays on roadunderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more five straight games are 25-9 (73.5%) ATS since 1996.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Toronto Raptors went through a rough patch midseason that has them undervalued right now.  They have lost eight of their last 12 games overall, but a lot of the struggles were due to being without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan.  But he's back healthy now and the Raptors are pretty much at full strength, which means they'll be a dangerous squad moving forward.

The Raptors are 18-9 SU & 15-11-1 ATS at home this season, while the Pistons are just 9-18 SU & 10-17 ATS on the road.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings in this series, including a 109-91 victory by the Raptors in their first meeting this year.

Plays against road underdogs (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last two games by 10+ points at the half are 56-19 (74.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Raptors come in on three days' rest, so they'll be fresh and ready to go.  Plus, they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Pistons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Take the Raptors Sunday.

20* Michigan/Indiana CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers want revenge from their worst loss of the season, a 60-90 laugher at Michigan on January 26th just two weeks ago.  Now the Hoosiers get the Wolverines at home this time around, and they rarely lose at Assembly Hall.

The Hoosiers also recently returned their best player in James Blackmon.  He was actually hurt in that loss to Michigan and didn't play until a 64-69 home loss to Purdue last time out.  He should be much sharper in his second game back from injury, and this is going to be a dangerous team moving forward.

This is a bad spot for Michigan, which is coming off a huge win over rival Michigan State, setting it up for a letdown here.  Plus they already rolled the Hoosiers once this season so they probably just think they have to show up to win Sunday.  They'll be in for a surprise against an inspired Hoosiers team that wants it more.

The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Michigan is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite.  Michigan is 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% this season.  Bet Indiana Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +3.5

Well, I lost last night with the Brooklyn Nets +6.5 against the Miami Heat as they blew it in the fourth quarter again.  Undeterred, I'm going to fade the Heat again here tonight as this is a terrible spot for them, and they're once again being overvalued.

The Heat are now a ridiculous 13-0 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Odds say it's almost impossible to cover this many games in a row.  This streak is going to come to an end very soon, and I don't want to miss the boat.  I think it comes to an end tonight against the 76ers.

The Heat will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here.  It's worth noting that the Heat have had only one back-to-back situation previously on this winning streak, so the schedule has broken their way.  But now this will be the first time they've played a back-to-back on the road, which is even tougher.

The 76ers have gone a superb 19-8 ATS at home this season.  In fact, they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games.  Fans are starting to fill the seats because this is now a fun team to watch, and they know the future is extremely bright.  Look for Philly to end Miami's winning streak here tonight.  Take the 76ers.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma +9.5

The Oklahoma Sooners couldn't possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They have lost six straight while going 1-5 ATS in the process.  Now they are catching a big number at Iowa State Saturday, and I think it's simply too much.

The Sooners are going to be out for revenge from an 87-92 home loss to Iowa State in double-overtime.  The Sooners led that game by as many as 20 points in the first half, and as many as 6 in the first overtime, but blew it.  Now they want to avenge that defeat in a bad way.

Iowa State simply hasn't held the same kind of home-court advantage as it had in years' past.  The Cyclones haven't beaten anyone by more than 9 at home in Big 12 play this year.  They beat Texas Tech by 7, Texas by 9 and Kansas State by 5.  They also lost to Kansas by 4 and to West Virginia by 13 in their five Big 12 home games.

Oklahoma has only lost one Big 12 road game by more than 8 points this year, which was an 11-point loss at Kansas State as 11.5-point dogs.  The Sooners only lost by 3 at TCU, by 1 at Texas and by 8 at Texas Tech.  They also upset West Virginia by 2 as 16.5-point road dogs.

This has been a very closely-contested series.  Each of the last six meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and nine of the last 10 meetings as well.  In fact, Iowa State hasn't beaten Oklahoma by more than 7 points in any of the last 11 meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Sooners pertaining to this 9.5-point spread.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -6

Coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 57-86 setback at rival Michigan, the Michigan State Spartans are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder today.  Look for them to try and wipe the bad taste out of their mouth against Iowa at home Saturday.

Adding fuel to the fire for the Spartans is the fact that they actually lost twice to Iowa last season.  But this Hawkeyes team is way down from that squad as they are relying on a ton of freshmen this year.  They aren't ready to win in a hostile atmosphere like East Lansing.

In fact, the Hawkeyes are 2-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in all road games this season.  They are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in true road games with their only win coming at lowly Rutgers.  They are getting outscored by 11.1 points per game on the highway this season even when you factor in their 20-point win at Rutgers.

Tom Izzo is 37-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6 to 9 points as the coach of Michigan State.  The Hawkeyes are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a straight up loss.  The Hawkeyes are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas +12

The Texas Longhorns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are 8-3 ATS in Big 12 play this season, yet they are underdogs in almost every game they play, and big road underdogs when on the highway.  That's the case again here against Oklahoma State as 12-point dogs.

Let's look at what they've done on the road this season.  They only lost by 3 at Kansas State as 8.5-point dogs, covered as 9.5-point dogs in a 9-point loss at Iowa State, lost by 10 at Baylor as 14-point dogs, lost by 12 at Kansas as 16-point dogs and only lost at Georgia by 2 as 5-point dogs.  Those results alone show they are more than capable of staying with Oklahoma State today.

I think this is a potential flat spot for the Cowboys.  They had their five-game winning streak come to an end in a tough 69-72 home loss to Baylor on Wednesday.  Now they have only two days to recover in time to get ready for Texas, while the Longhorns last played on Tuesday and will be the fresher squad.

Texas has won three straight meetings with Oklahoma State.  The Longhorns haven't lost any of their last six meetings with the Cowboys by more than 11 points.  They beat the Cowboys 82-79 at home in their first meeting this season as 1-point dogs, and now they're catching 12 points on the road in the rematch, which is way too big of an adjustment.

Texas is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Longhorns are 11-3 ATS as a road dog or PK over the last two years.  The Longhorns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -5

The Illinois Fighting Illini are going to be out for revenge from a 67-71 loss at Penn State on January 28th just two weeks ago.  I look for them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around in the second meeting.

The Fighting Illini have beaten the likes of Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa at home this season all by 5 points or more, which are three better teams than Penn State.  Their three losses have come against Maryland, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which are three better teams than Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are in a prime letdown spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 70-64 home victory over nationally ranked Maryland.  But they have gone just 1-4 in Big Ten road games this season with their only win coming at Rutgers.

The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Fighting Illini are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +6.5

The Brooklyn Nets are showing great value as 6.5-point home underdogs to the Miami Heat tonight.  There are several reasons that support my theory that this line has been inflated, not the least of which is that the Nets are 0-11 in their last 11 games overall.

However, the Nets have been competitive of late.  Eight of their last nine losses have come by single-digits, so they've been right there with a chance to win.  They only lost by 4 at Charlotte as 10-point dogs, and lost in OT at home to the Wizards as 10-point dogs in their last two contests coming in.

Conversely, Miami is way overvalued right now due to going 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay 6.5 points.  This is an impressive run by the Heat, but I think it probably comes to an end tonight.

The Nets will be out for revenge from two narrow losses to the Heat over the past couple weeks.  The Nets lost 106-109 at home to the Heat on January 25th after blowing a big lead in the 4th quarter.  They also lost 96-104 at Miami on January 30th.  I expect the Heat to be disinterested facing the Nets for the 3rd time in two weeks, while the Nets will want this game more.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off an upset win as a road underdog, on Friday nights are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1996.  Miami is 8-20 ATS in road games versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 16-29 ATS off a road win over the last three years.  Bet the Nets Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -3.5

The Rhode Island Rams are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning all four games by 8 points or more.  Now they're ready to take down a team like Dayton here at home Friday night.

The Rams have a chance to move into a second-place tie with the Flyers in the Atlantic 10, just one game behind VCU for the conference lead.  That will have them motivated alone, plus they want revenge from a 64-67 loss at Dayton on January 6th in their first meeting this season.

I like the Rams' chances of getting that revenge at home, where they are 11-1 SU & 7-4 ATS on the season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game.  Four of Dayton's five losses have come on the road this season.  The Flyers will be playing their 3rd game in a week here.

Rhode Island is 8-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last three seasons.  The Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Flyers.  Rhode Island is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Rhode Island Friday.

15* UNC/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -2

The Duke Blue Devils haven't played up to their potential this season.  As a result, they are only laying 2 points at home to North Carolina Thursday.  Rarely ever will you find the Blue Devils as this short of home favorites any year, especially a year where they have as much talent as they do this season.

But I look for Duke to be a dangerous team going forward now that Coach K is back on the sidelines.  I think he'll get the most out of his players going forward after he called them out recently.  He doesn't need to give them any extra motivation tonight against the Tar Heels, though.

UNC doesn't deserve getting this much respect from oddsmakers with the way it is playing coming in.  The Tar Heels are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost by 15 at Miami as 6-point favorites, barely beat Pitt by 2 as 18.5-point home favorites, and failed to cover as 9-point home favorites in a 7-point win over Notre Dame.

UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season.  The Tar Heels are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  The Blue Devils are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Duke Thursday.

15* Stanford/Arizona Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -13.5

The Arizona Wildcats will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They were embarrassed 58-85 at Oregon on Saturday to fall to 21-3 on the season.  You can bet that they'll be looking to get that bad taste out of their mouths with a blowout win at home over Stanford.

This is the same Stanford team that Arizona already beat 91-52 on the road as 6.5-point favorites in their first meeting this year.  The Wildcats have now won 14 straight meetings with the Cardinal.  The last four have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 26.8 points per game.  Expect more of the same tonight.

The Cardinal are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Stanford is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog.  Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Arizona Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia -6.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Oklahoma State as 10-point favorites.  You can bet that Bob Huggins will have them ready to go here tonight after that defeat.

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Mountaineers suffered their biggest upset loss this season when they fell 87-89 (OT) at home to Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 6.5 points on the road in the rematch.

That was the last win for the Sooners, who have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost at home to both Iowa State and Oklahoma State during this stretch, while also getting blown out by 32 at home by Florida.  This team just doesn't have much to play for right now at all.

Plays on a favorite (W VIRGINIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mountaineers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite.  The Sooners are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take West Virginia Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3

The Miami Heat are more overvalued now than they have been at any point this season.  That's because they have gone 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice, and now they're only catching 3 points on the road to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

I look for an inspired effort from the Bucks to put an end to the Heat's 11-game winning streak tonight.  The Bucks have had three days off in between games since crushing Phoenix 137-112 on the road on Saturday.  So they are fresh and ready to go here tonight.

The Heat are just 9-17 on the road this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge between these teams.  In fact, the home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  All four wins have come by 6 points or more as well.

Miami is 7-20 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 19-8 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two years.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2

The Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks just played a few days ago.  The Mavericks upset the Blazers 108-104 on the road as 6.5-point favorites on February 3rd.  I like taking the team that lost the first meeting when they play within a week of each other because they are the more motivated squad.

Expect a big effort from the Blazers here tonight as they try and get revenge on the Mavericks.  Plus, this is a bad spot for Dallas, which will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 87-110 in Denver last night.  The Blazers had yesterday off and will be playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.

Plays against home underdogs (DALLAS) - after playing two consecutive road games, playing on back-to-back days are 76-41 (65%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4

I expect a big effort from the Clemson Tigers at home here tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season at Florida State on Sunday.  They lost that game 61-109 and will certainly be looking to make amends.  The Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.

Meanwhile, Syracuse comes in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off a huge upset home win over Virginia by a final of 66-62 as 4.5-point underdogs in which they had a big comeback in the second half.  They are primed for a letdown off that victory.

Clemson is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Syracuse.  The Orange are 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS in all road games this season.  The Tigers are 8-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game on average.

Syracuse is 3-11 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the past three seasons.  Clemson is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 after failing to cover six or seven of its last eight against the spread.  The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Clemson Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +6.5

The Florida Gators are way overvalued right now.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and now they are being asked to lay 6.5 points on the road to Georgia Tuesday night.  We'll gladly fade them now.

This is an awful spot for the Gators.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, an 88-66 home victory over Kentucky on Saturday.  They are now in a letdown spot.  And having already beaten Georgia once this season, they won't be up for this game.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, come in highly motivated after playing well but losing their last two games on the road to Kentucky in OT as 15.5-point dogs and to South Carolina 75-77 as 8-point dogs.  They also want revenge from their 76-80 road loss to Florida on January 14th in their first meeting this season.

Georgia is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.  Georgia is 7-0 ATS versus teams who attempt 25 or more free throws per game this season.  These three trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -3.5

The Indiana Pacers have turned the corner and are finally playing up to their potential.  They have won six straight and have gone 13-4 in their last 17 games overall.  Yet, they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The Pacers have been especially good at home, going 19-6 SU & 14-10-1 ATS on the season.  The Oklahoma City Thunder haven't been nearly as good on the road, going 12-15 SU & 12-15 ATS on the highway this season while giving up 108.1 points per game on 46.7% shooting.

This is an awful spot for the Thunder.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  I think this team is running on fumes right now and will be out of gas.  That's especially the case since they are without one of their best players in Enes Kanter.

Oklahoma City is 2-11 ATS in road games vs. Central Division opponents over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 21-35 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Indiana is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Louisville/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia -6

The Virginia Cavaliers simply have the Louisville Cardinals' number.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  They won 61-53 on the road earlier this season, and 68-46 at home and 63-47 on the road in their two meetings last year.  These games haven't even been close.

I expect that to be the case again here tonight as the Cavaliers roll the Cardinals.  The Cardinals come in overvalued off three straight blowout wins over weak ACC competition in Boston College, NC State and Pitt.  But their run comes to an end here tonight.

The Cardinals were already without second-leading scorer Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg) due to injury.  But now they are going to also be without their third-leading scorer in Deng Adel (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and fifth-leading scorer Mangkok Mathiang (7.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg), who have both been suspended for this contest.

Virginia will be hungry following an upset loss at Syracuse on Saturday.  The Cavaliers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Virginia Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -5.5

I really love this spot for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They will be out for revenge from a 90-93 double-overtime loss to Nebraska on the road in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to get that revenge in blowout fashion at home tonight.

This is also a good spot for the Hawkeyes because they last played on Tuesday, getting four days to prepare for Nebraska.  The Huskers last played Michigan State in an 11-point home loss on Thursday, only getting two days off to prepare for the Hawkeyes.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have played two of their best games of the season coming in.  They beat Ohio State 85-72 as 1-point home favorites, and throttled Rutgers 83-63 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They won both those games without leading scorer Peter Jok, which helped them gel as a team.  Now Jok returns Sunday and the Hawkeyes will be a very dangerous team moving forward.

Iowa is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog.  The Hawkeyes are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 home games off a road win.  The Hawkeyes are 4-0 in their last four home meetings with the Huskers, winning by 11, 11, 10 and 14 points, respectively.  Roll with Iowa Sunday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +7.5

The Washington Wizards are way overvalued right now due to going 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  I took advantage of this fact and backed the Lakers +11 on Thursday and they covered in an 8-point loss.  I'm going to take advantage again tonight and back the Pelicans as 7.5-point road dogs here.

Conversely, the Pelicans come in undervalued due to going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall.  The first loss was a 94-107 home loss to the Wizards.  So, the Pelicans will be playing with revenge in mind after facing this same team just a week ago on January 29th.  I like their motivation heading in because of it.

The Wizards are also overvalued right now because they have won 16 straight home games coming in.  Obviously, this streak is going to come to an end sooner rather than later.  And they've found themselves in the big favorite role quite a bit lately because of this streak.  They are once again laying too many points here tonight.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after having covered four of their last five against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

25* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -1.5

The UCF Knights are one of the most underrated teams in the American Athletic.  They opened the season 14-4, but then ran into a buzz saw of a schedule over the past couple weeks.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as a result, and now they are way undervalued heading into this home matchup with Memphis Saturday.

Three of the losses came on the road against three of the better teams in the AAC in Memphis, Tulsa and Houston.  The other was a 60-65 home loss to SMU, which is the second-best team in the league.  And that was a rare home loss for the Knights.

Indeed, the Knights are 10-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.  Their defense has been superb at home, giving up just 56.6 points per game on 32.7% shooting.  Obviously the Knights are going to be out for revenge from their 65-70 road loss to the Tigers on January 22nd just two weeks ago, so I love their mindset coming in.

Memphis comes in overvalued due to winning five of its last six games overall.  But the Tigers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as they have consistently underachieved in terms of the spread.  And their last six games have come against South Florida (twice), ECU, Temple, UCF and Houston.  All five wins came by 10 points or less, too.

This is a great situation for the Knights in terms of rest as well.  They last played on Wednesday in a road loss to Houston.  The Tigers last played on Thursday in a road win at South Florida.  So the Tigers will only have had one day off to get ready for UCF, while the Knights will have had two days' rest.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for the home team here.

UCF is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Saturday home games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.3 points per game.  Memphis is 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 7-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Memphis is 16-36 ATS in its last 52 games following a win.  The Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Air Force -1.5

The Air Force Falcons have been one of the most underrated teams in the Mountain West.  They have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 7 at Nevada as 12-point dogs, by 2 at UNLV as 4-point dogs, and by 9 at Fresno State as 9.5-point dogs.

Their one win came when they beat San Diego State by 3 as 6.5-point home dogs.  And the Falcons have been a great bet at home all season, going 10-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in their home lined games.  They are scoring 80.6 points per game on 48.3% shooting at home this year.

Wyoming is just 2-6 in true road games this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Falcons won 70-62 as 4.5-point home dogs last year and 73-50 as 1-point home favorites in 2015.  Home-court advantage is clearly huge for these two teams, and the Falcons basically just have to win the game to cover the spread here Saturday.

Air Force is 8-0 ATS in home games after having lost five or six of its last seven games over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.  Air Force is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% or less over the last two seasons.   The Cowboys are 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Roll with Air Force Saturday.

15* Xavier/Creighton FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Creighton -3.5

There's no question that the loss of Mo Watson Jr. hurt Creighton.  They did not play well in their first two games without him, but they have adjusted in a big way in their past two games, and oddsmakers are once again putting too much stock in his loss.

Creighton beat DePaul 83-66 as 15.5-point favorites eight days ago before upsetting Butler 76-67 on the road as 7-point underdogs on Tuesday.  Now the Bluejays have had three full days to get ready for Xavier, a team they already beat 72-67 as 3-point road dogs on January 16th in the game that Watson was injured in.  Creighton also beat Xavier 70-56 as 1-point home underdogs last season.

Xavier has just as big of injury issues of its own.  The Mountaineers are without their best player in Edmond Sumner, and they were already without Myles Davis.  Sumner averages 15.0 points, 5.0 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game.  Not to mention leading scorer Trevon Bluiett (18.7 ppg) is battling a foot injury and is questionable.

In their first game without Sumner on Wednesday, the Musketeers were fortunate to escape with a 72-70 home victory over Seton Hall as 5-point favorites.  Xavier is just 2-5 in true road games this season, while Creighton is 11-2 at home and outscoring opponents by 13.5 points per game.

Xavier is 1-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% this season.  Creighton is 12-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bluejays are 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games overall.  The Bluejays are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road meetings.  Take Creighton Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Wake Forest -7.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have some awful losses this season but also some incredible wins.  But most of those great wins came at home against CLemson, UNC, FSU and Notre Dame.  It has been a completely different story for them on the road this season.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are just 2-6 in true road games this season.  They have been getting outscored by an average of 12.0 points per game on the road this year.  They lost by 12 at Clemson on Wednesday, and I think their luck has run out here again against Wake Forest on the highway.

Wake Forest is 7-3 at home this season.  The three losses all came against great teams where they easily could have won.  They gave up a big late lead in a 68-73 loss to Clemson, only lost to UNC 87-93 as 8.5-point dogs, and lost on a last-second 3-pointer to Duke 83-85 as 6-point dogs.

This is clearly the best team that the Demon Deacons have had in a while, and they are winning by 12.1 points per game on average at home this year.  The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* Lakers/Celtics ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +11.5

The Los Angeles Lakers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers right now.  That's evident in the fact that they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  I was on them last night as 11-point dogs in a cover at red-hot Washington, and I'm on them again tonight as similar 11.5-point dogs to the Celtics.

The Lakers went through a long slump after a fast start this season, but a lot of that had to do with injuries.  But the Lakers are fully healthy now.  De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup, and Julius Randle just returned from a battle with pneumonia.  He played six minutes against the Wizards last night and will be available again here.

Boston comes in overvalued due to its five-game winning streak.  However, the Celtics have failed to put away their last two opponents at home.  They didn't cover as 5.5-point favorites in a 4-point win over the Pistons, and needed a huge fourth quarter to beat the Raptors by 5 as 6-point favorites.  I don't think they can win by double-digits here.

The Lakers have owned the Celtics, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  They always get up for their biggest rivals, and even these young players know what this rivalry means.  Boston is 1-10 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored 106.7 to 111.6 in this spot on average.  Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Central Michigan -2.5

Oddsmakers have really missed their mark tonight in this MAC showdown between Western Michigan and Central Michigan.  The Chippewas should be much bigger favorites, but we'll gladly take advantage of this huge line mistake.

This one is pretty simply.  Central Michigan is 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Western Michigan is 0-12 in all road games this year, getting outscored by 13.7 points per game on average.

Central Michigan is 8-1 ATS in home games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Chippewas are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5 points.  Central Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Take Central Michigan Friday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2

The Stanford Cardinal are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing back-to-back tough road games at Oregon and California.  They had won their previous three games coming in, including a 30-point home win over Washington State, a 9-point home win over Washington and a 16-point road win against Oregon State.

Now the Cardinal get to face one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in the Colorado Buffaloes, who are 2-7 in conference play.  They actually started 0-7 before beating lowly Oregon State by 7 at home and then upsetting Oregon 74-65 at home.

That win over Oregon sets the Buffaloes up for a massive letdown spot here.  They won't be able to get up for Stanford after beating the Ducks.  The Buffaloes are just 2-6 in true road games this season.  The Cardinal are 7-3 at home this year.

The Buffaloes are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5 points.  Colorado is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall.  The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Colorado is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Bet Stanford Thursday.