Alex Smart

The Reds clinched a season series vs Philly with a 7-4, come-from-behind win on Wednesday and I project them to be a solid runline winner here today in a game that is expected to closely contested. It must be noted Reds starter Martinez will be making his first career start against Philadelphia, but the  right-hander has been dominant in five career relief appearances vs. the Phillies, allowing just one run and four hits over 10 1/3 innings with no decisions.PHILADELPHIA is 13-29 against the run line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 20-42   against the run line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 19-39  against the run line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 49-30 SU  vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Cincinnati +1.5 runline 

My. projections estimate that both these teams will produce +114 points in what the linesmakers expect to be a very close game  .LA LAKERS are 31-0 OVER  where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 253.2 ppg scored..DENVER is 16-2 OVER where both teams score 114 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 244.5 ppg scored.

LA LAKERS L/30 versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined score of 227.3 ppg scored.LA LAKERS  L/173 games versus good shooting teams - making 46%  or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. LA LAKERS in 48 games as a favorite this season have seen a combined average of 235.5 ppg scored.

DENVER 45 games this season  when playing against a team with a winning record has seen a combined average 221.2 ppg scored.

DENVERs 65 games  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season has seen a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored.

Play over

Orlando has its back up against the wall as they are down 2-0 in this series, and will now be primed for a huge bounce back performance here at home where they have played their best hoops this season winning 29 of their 40 games while covering 27 of those tilts. The last game between these two teams was a grinding affair in Cleveland with the Cavs pounding out a 96-86 win. Note: Bickerstaff is 0-10 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND. Also Bickerstaff is 17-33 ATS L/50 in road games against Southeast division opponents in all games he has coached . 

CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS  as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

ORLANDO is 12-4 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.

ORLANDO is 15-6 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more  assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. ORLANDO is 11-2 ATS  in home games versus sub standard pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

NBA Favorites vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 37-4 L/28 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.8 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NBA Favorites (ORLANDO) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 30-11 ATS L/28 seasons for. a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover