Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Celtics/Heat UNDER 177
Bottom Line: We only saw a total of 172 total points scored in Game 1, and the Celtics didn't play the kind of defense we are accustomed to seeing from them. I expect this to be an ugly series as both of these teams are elite defensively. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 179.5 or less (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 36-11 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 168.2 total points scored in this situation. Also, this system is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 seasons. The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics' last 7 road games and 10-3-1 in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Under is 25-8 in the Heat's last 33 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +5
Bottom Line: The Thunder lost Game 1, but we're talking about one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. The Thunder are 59-28-1 ATS in their last 88 games following a loss. Additionally, OKC is a flawless 10-0 ATS in road games when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won these games by an average of 5.5 points. Plus, the Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -8
Bottom Line: With just 1 days' rest since defeating Philly in Game 7, Boston hasn't had a chance to recover physically and emotionally. The C's had success against the Heat in the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal and Boston is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Plus, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge a loss to an opponent that held them to less than 85 points, provided that foe is checking in off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, are 45-20 ATS since 1996. This system is a stellar 11-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs won the last two regular season meetings with Oklahoma City, but the Thunder are an impressive 30-16 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 2.2 points in these games. The Thunder are an impressive 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 postseason games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Take OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Celtics -5.5
Bottom Line: The home team has had the overwhelming advantage in this matchup, and I expect that to remain the case in Game 7. The home side is on a 10-2 run, including a perfect 3-0 run in the last 3 games. Those 3 wins have come by 9, 16 and 7 points. In fact, the last 10 wins by the home team have come by an average of 12.6 points. Boston is 10-1 in its last 11 home contests with those 10 wins coming by an average of 10.3 points. The Celtics are also a perfect 4-0 in these playoffs following a loss and an unbeaten 2-0 this postseason when playing with 2 days of rest. They have won their 4 bounce back games by an average of 10.5 points and their 2 games on 2 days' rest by an average of 11.0 points. Pound the Celtics.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +3.5
Bottom Line: The numbers are in Indiana's favor tonight as home teams off a road loss by 10 points or more with a winning percentage of .600 to .750 that are matched up against a team with a winning record are 68-31 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games versus a squad with a home winning percentage above .600 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The underdog is on a 26-12-1 ATS run when these two teams get together. Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Celtics/76ers UNDER 176
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams in Game 6 of a playoff series when the total is 179.5 or less has produced a powerful 42-12 mark since 1996, including a perfect 16-0 record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have combined for just 166.6 points on average. With Philly playing to stay alive and Boston wanting to close out the series in hopes of getting a little extra rest before the East finals, I'm expecting an absolute defensive war. Pound the UNDER!

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Pacers/Heat UNDER 181.5
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a tied playoff series, provided both teams have winning records, has produced a 36-8 record that is an unbeaten 6-0 this season. Miami have played to the UNDER in 18 of its last 23 and Indiana has finished UNDER the number in 7 of its last 10. I'm expecting a hard-fought defensive battle tonight as both teams try to seize control of the series. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Lakers +7.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are showing some nice value catching this many points considering the Thunder have only recorded 2 playoff victories by 8 points or more this postseason. The past three games in this series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, and I expect another close contest as the Lakers fight hard in the face of elimination. The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 at home. Plus, they are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home contests when valued as a favorite of 5.0 to 10.5 points. We'll take the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Heat -121
Bottom Line: Road favorites with a winning record on the season that are coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more are an impressive 35-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. They have won by an average of 8.1 points in this situation. Look for the Heat to bounce back strong following a very poor showing in Game 3.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Thunder +1
Bottom Line: The Lakers showed heart last night, but the veteran bodies of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace will have a very difficult time responding without a day of rest to recuperate. The Thunder and younger and deeper, and I love their chances here. The Thunder are 58-28-1 ATS in their last 87 games following a loss, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. The Lakers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The Lakers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games. Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -130
Bottom Line: I still really like Philly ATS tonight but am taking them on the ML for insurance at a nice price. Boston is in for a letdown following its Game 3 performance. Consider that Boston is 19-34 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 8-23 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Philly and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. We can let one bad game by the 76ers make us forget that they had been perfect at home in the playoffs and perfect at home against Boston this season with a pair of blowout wins. 76ers bounce back strong here.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -121
Bottom Line: I really like the Heat laying a small number, but I have gone ahead and taken them on the money line for insurance. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Pacers have been awesome fade material when checking into a game with recent success against the spread. In fact, Indiana is 1-15 ATS after covering the number in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season. The Pacers have lost these games by an average of 3.5 points. Take Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Lakers +8
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Lakers to respond following a very poor showing in Game 1. LA has bounced back strong following its last 5 double-digit defeats, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in these games with a 9.6-point average margin of victory. It is also worth mentioning that teams coached by Mike Brown are 24-10 ATS all-time in road games after a loss by 10 points or more. His teams have won by an average of 3.4 points in these games. Plus, the Thunder have dropped 5 of their last 6 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 5-10.5 points. Take LA.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Spurs -11.5
Bottom Line: I have no problem laying this many points with a rested Spurs club against a banged up Clippers squad, especially since the Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and the Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. San Antonio is also an awesome 22-5-1 ATS in its last 28 at home. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Thunder -7.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers got all they wanted and more from Denver. Now, they're up against an even more talented team that has just as much size as they do and more depth. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinal games. Also, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Lakers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -7.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers blew their chance to win the series in Game 6. Now, Memphis is back home with all the momentum. The Grizzlies have won 13 of their last 14 at home with the only loss during this stretch coming in Game 1 when they held a 27-point advantage. They have also won 7 of their last 9 home playoff games with those wins coming by an average of 9.7 points. The Clippers are banged up and at a major disadvantage inside, where Gasol and Randolph are taking over. We'll lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Lakers -5.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 10-0 in their last 10 Game 7's at home, and I fully expect this trend to continue. They were embarrassed by the Nuggets in Game 6, which led to Kobe Bryant calling out his teammates. I have no doubt this team, which has been there and done that, will respond. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) that are out to avenge a double-digit road defeat to a foe, as long as they have a winning percentage of 60-75% on the season and are facing an opponent with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is carrying a 9.6-point average margin or victory. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -1.5
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to lay this small number with the Grizzlies as I believe they are the better team. They also enter this matchup healthier than LA as Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and Caron Butler are all battling injuries. The Grizzlies are 30-18 ATS in all games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 4-14 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take Memphis in this do-or-die spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks +6.5
Bottom Line: The public is all over the Celtics expecting them to close out the series tonight. Knowing that would be the case, odds makers have overvalued Boston here. We won't fall for the trap. The Celtics may very well win this game, but there is a great chance they won't win by more than 6 points. 6 of the last 9 meetings between these two have been decided by 6 points or less and the underdog has covered the number in 7 of the last 9 meetings. We shouldn't be scared of the road squad either as it is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups. It's also important to point out that Boston hasn't done too hot in the postseason when asked to lay this many points. In fact, it has dropped 16 of its last 21 ATS in postseason play when favored by 5-10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -6
Bottom Line: Memphis is 27-8 at home this season. It is also 6-2 in home playoff games the last 2 seasons. One of those losses came in OT to OKC last season and the other came in Game 1 of this series when it blew a 27-point lead. In other words, Memphis is tough as nails at home. Those 6 postseason wins mentioned above have come by an average of 9.3 points. We'll lay the number as the Grizzlies take care of business on their home floor tonight.

5* Wiseguy 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -1
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight following such an ugly performance in Game 4. Boston is only 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 90 points or less 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average of 5.8 points in this situation. The Celtics are also only 7-19 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are also on a stellar 18-6 ATS run in home games in the first round of the playoffs, winning these contests by an average score of 90.9 to 83.2. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog while the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. Take Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +1.5
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Grizzlies to bounce back from Saturday's 1-point loss. They are 53-36 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons, 39-26 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 33-19 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. In addition, Memphis is 33-18 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.0 points or less under coach Hollins. Take Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Lakers +2.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers didn't show up ready to play in Game 3 and were beaten badly. Prior to that, however, they had won 4 straight versus Denver by at least 4 points. LA is the more talented team, and I expect it to flex its muscles in this bounce back spot. The Lakers have covered the spread 6 times in their past 7 games following a loss of greater than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that responds following subpar efforts. Look for LA to respond here.

5* Wiseguy "Total" Blowout on Memphis/LAC UNDER 187
Bottom Line: We struck gold with the under in last night's Bulls/76ers matchup and I have this one coming in way under the number as well. Memphis is 11-3 UNDER in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. We've only seen an average of 180.1 total points scored in these games. Plus, LAC is 17-6 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are fresh and both teams will be gunning for the series lead. We'll bet the under in what should be a ferocious defensive battle.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic +5
Bottom Line: With Indiana entering off consecutive double-digit wins and covers, we can be certain that it is being overvalued. In fact, the Pacers are just 10-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average of 4.2 points in these games. The Pacers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Value lies with the home dog here.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179
Bottom Line: I really like this one to finish at least 10 points under the number in what should be a defensive battle, and we have history on our side here. Playing the under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less (Chicago in this case) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 55-25 mark since 1996. We have only seen an average of 169.7 total points scored in this situation. Also, playing the under on any team in a playoff series that is tied is 76-38 the last 5 seasons. The Under is 4-0 in Bulls' last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The Under is also 6-1 in the 76ers' last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +6
Bottom Line: The Knicks are showing good value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog. It is also important to note that New York is an awesome 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after enduring 2 consecutive double-digit road losses. With Stoudemire out and their backs against the wall, I expect the Knicks to play desperate basketball tonight. Desperate teams are dangerous, and the Knicks have the look of a dangerous dog here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (NBA TV) on Magic +3.5
Bottom Line: The Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Pacers are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Magic.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nuggets/Lakers OVER 200
Bottom Line: The Lakers won't be able to hold the NBA highest scoring team in check again in Game 2. The Nuggets have come out and said that they'll force a fast-paced game, and that bodes very well for us here. Denver averages 104.6 ppg on the road and LA averages 98.9 ppg at home. These averages are significant because Denver is 24-5 OVER when both it and its opponent score 98 or more points in a game this season and LA is 39-1 OVER when both it and its foe score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. We've seen an average of 211.2 total points scored in these games. Pound the over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers -8.5
Bottom Line: The books are begging for action on Orlando here after the Magic stole Game 1, but we won't give in. The Pacers are the superior team, especially with Dwight Howard out, and I expect them to even the series with an impressive double-digit win. The Pacers are on an 80-50 ATS run when out to avenge a loss in which they were held below the 85-point mark. They are also on a 23-11 ATS streak in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* (ABC) on Nuggets +5
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are showing some nice value catching this many points. After all, they are 13-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The Nuggets are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Lakers, including 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Magic +9.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are factoring Dwight Howard's absence too heavily into this line and we'll look to take advantage. The Magic remain a dangerous team without the big fella because they can flat out drain it from deep. The Magic are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus Indiana. The Pacers are on a 1-9-1 ATS slide when laying points in the postseason.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks -4.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks have an opportunity to lock up home-court in the first round, and I expect them to take care of business versus a Dallas squad that will sit Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. The Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Clippers/Knicks UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers combined with the Hawks to put 211 points on the board last night. The Knicks combined with the Hawks to put 225 points on the board in their last game. Also, we've seen 224, 239 and 220 total points scored in the last 3 meetings in this series. Given the line, the books are clearly begging for the public to take the over. We won't bite. I fully expect this game to have playoff intensity on the defensive end. The Clippers are 14-5 under when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. We've seen just 184.4 total points scored in these games. Plus, NY is 9-0 under after a win by 6 points or less this season. We've seen just 175.9 total points scored in these games. Pound the under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Suns/Jazz UNDER 203
Bottom Line: Both teams are fresh and with all that's at stake I expect the defensive intensity to be high. The result should be an easy under. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more, are 83-42 since 1996. This system is 10-1 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Also, plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 72-34 since 1996. This system is 28-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Lastly, the Suns are 7-0 Under this season in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rockets -12.5
Bottom Line: This is a must-win game for Houston, which is 1-game back for the final playoff spot in the West, and it catches the injury-depleted Warriors at a good time. They spent a lot of injury in last night's loss to the Mavs and have now dropped 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Plus, Houston is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus Golden State, winning those contests by an average of 16.7 points. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -12
Bottom Line: With an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win, look for the Mavs to roll in their regular-season home finale. Dallas has won 9 of its last 10 at home against Golden State with those 9 wins coming by a whopping 16.8 points per game. The injury bug has really plagued the Warriors down the stretch, and I don't believe they have enough fire power to keep the motivated Mavs from blowing them out.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -5
Bottom Line: After winning the season's first meeting in Miami, the Heat have dropped a pair of close contests in Chicago. This is a game the Heat want badly. A win here keeps them alive for the #1 seed in the East, and more importantly, gives them confidence against a Chicago club they'll likely see in the playoffs. The Heat have won 8 of their last 9 at home versus Chicago with those 8 wins coming by an average of 7.6 points. Also, playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 61-31 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.2 points and have won by an average of 9.7. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA BAILOUT on Trail Blazers +4
Bottom Line: The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 15-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Utah has won the season's first 2 meetings by 4 and 5 points, but Portland is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games when out to avenge 2 consecutive straight up losses to an opponent. The Blazers have won by an average of 7.0 points in this situation. We'll take the points as Portland shows up for the fans in its last home game of the season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -3
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs (INDIANA) coming off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 91-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have lost by an average of 8.9 points. The Pacers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on 0 days' rest. This is Indiana's 4th game in 5 days. The 76ers played yesterday as well but had 2 days off prior to that game. Philly will be the fresher team tonight, and I expect it to rise to the occasion as it tries to boost its playoff position.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +8
Bottom Line: This is Miami's second game in as many days and 4th in 5 days, and I don't think it will have the legs to cover this number tonight. The Nets haven't forgotten about the 30-point beating they were handed in South Beach last month, and I fully expect them to leave it all on the floor in hopes of avenging that defeat. Miami's starters logged over 164 minutes Sunday, which is significant because it is on a 2-6 ATS slide when their starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pistons +9.5
Bottom Line: The Pistons have either won or lost to the Bulls by fewer than today's posted number in 27 of the last 32 meetings in Detroit. The home teams have covered the number in 6 of the last 7 matchups. Also, the Pistons are a very profitable 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. Take Detroit.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +11.5
Bottom Line: Even with Love out, the T-Wolves aren't getting the respect they deserve at home. They are 4-9 in their last 13 home games in the series but none of those 13 losses have come by more than 11 points. I fully expect this 13-0 trend to continue. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -5
Bottom Line: Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) that average 99.0 points per game or more on the season, provided they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 46-19 ATS (70.8%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3. This system is a killer 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Basically, this system suggests that Milwaukee will tighten the screws defensively following consecutive poor efforts and is explosive enough offensively to cover the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Heat +2
Bottom Line: Off a loss to Boston, in which they allowed the Celtics to shoot 60.6%, and having tasted defeat the last time they faced the Bulls, I expect an inspired effort from LeBron James and company this evening. The Heat lost in Chicago by 4 points on Mar. 14 but had won 5 straight over the Bulls by an average of 7.2 points prior to that. This game is basically a must-win for the Heat if they want any realistic chance to claim the Eastern Conference's top seed. More importantly, the Heat need this game to prove to themselves what they have thought all along, that they're the team to beat in the East. The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Also, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. We'll pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Year on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: I love the Grizzlies at home tonight as they look to pay Phoenix back for a pair of losses in the desert earlier this season. The last time Phoenix visited Memphis, it was handed a 10-point defeat, and I expect this one to be even worse. The Suns have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in this series with those 3 losses coming by an average of 11.3 points. Phoenix is 18-8 since mid-Feb. but has struggled against the elite, enduring losses to Oklahoma City, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. Memphis, meanwhile, has won 8 of its last 10 with key wins against the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. The Memphis defense has been ridiculous, holding its last 10 foes to just 90.8 points on average. The Phoenix defense hasn't been nearly as good, giving up 98.4 points to its last 10 opponents. The Suns have given up an average of 101.0 points to their last 5 opponents while the Grizzlies have allowed just 89.0 to their last 5. Memphis' defense will spark a blowout tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a double-digit win over a division rival and are up against a foe that checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that enter off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and are up against a foe that enters off a home win has produced a perfect 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

Playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, if that opponent checks in off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, has produced an unbeaten 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

Lastly, playing against road teams in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) has produced a perfect 3-0 ATS mark this season. We'll take the Heat behind this 20-0 ATS angle.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Blazers -3
Bottom Line: The Blazers have the advantage playing this one at home with a day of rest on their side. Houston just played Sunday and has lost 5 of its last 7 ATS when playing without a day of rest. The have also been a dead fade in this point-spread range as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as a dog of 4.5 or fewer points. Houston is 4-13 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season and 2-11 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Portland.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 185
Bottom Line: The Knicks are 9-0 Under this season when checking in off a road win. We have only seen an average of 179.5 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 road games, 8-3 in the Knicks' last 11 overall and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two foes in New York. New York's defense has improved drastically since the last time it faced Chicago. Expect a low-scoring defensive battle to find its way under the number here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2
Bottom Line: Last night's satisfying win over the Thunder has left the Pacers ripe for a beating. The Celtics, who have lost 2 in a row since winning 5 straight, will gladly deliver that beating. This is a revenge game for Indiana, which lost the season's most recent meeting by 7 points in Boston, but I don't believe it will have the legs to get the job done. Playing against home favorites (INDIANA) out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided that "play against" side checks in having played 9 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 35-13 (73%) ATS mark since 1996. Also, the Pacers are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing with no rest. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or fewer. Boston wins this game outright.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Miami, which is coming off a big revenge win over the Thunder. Memphis lost its last game at Dallas but that was its third in as many days. Having had a day of rest, the Grizzlies will be much fresher here. They won at OKC Monday and have been at their best this time of year under coach Hollins. In fact, the Grizz are 18-4 ATS all-time in the second half of the season under Hollins when matched up against a team that has won more than 70% of its games. It has only lost to these foes by an average of 2.1 points. I like Memphis to give the Heat all they want and more tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls -7
Bottom Line: The Bulls will be out for blood at home tonight following back-to-back SU and ATS losses. Chicago is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. It has won by an average of 13.4 points in this situation. Plus, the Celtics are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 0 days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Chicago. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing when playing on 2 days rest. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6
Bottom Line: The Wizards have played the Pacers to 2 and 4-point games this season, and I like them to take Indy right down to the wire again. The Pacers are only 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing on 0 days' rest and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Off last night's big come-from-behind win over New York, and with the Thunder and Celtics up next, expect Indiana to get caught looking ahead here.

5* NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Warriors +7.5
Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for the Grizzlies following last night's big win over the Thunder. The Grizzlies are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jazz +2
Bottom Line: The Blazers defeated Minnesota by 13 Sunday but are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 1-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic -5
Bottom Line: The last time Orlando lost consecutive games it bounced back strong with a double digit win and cover over Phoenix. I expect a similar turn of events this evening. The Nuggets have lost 3 of 5 on their current road trip with their losses coming by an average of 15.0 points. They have also dropped 13 of their last 14 in Orlando with those losses coming by an average of 11.2 points. The fact Denver enters off a win is also significant because it hasn't won consecutive contests since March 4-5. The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Nuggets are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. Pound the Magic.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +2.5
Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to take the Grizzlies in this back-to-back spot considering they are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games when playing on 0 days rest. Also, the Bucks are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Plus, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Memphis won both of last season's meeting, and I expect it to continue its recent dominance of Milwaukee here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Hawks -3.5
Bottom Line: New York's 108-86 win over Orlando Wednesday and it's 99-82 home win over Atlanta last month sets up a very strong situation tonight. Playing on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, has produced a 37-13 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.5 points. The Knicks are just 2-7 in their last 9 road games. I like the Hawks big in this revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* (TNT) on Lakers pk
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 20-4 at home this season where they carry an 8.4-point average margin of victory. They are also on an 11-1 run at home versus the Sonic/Thunder (7 of those wins against the Thunder) with those 11 victories coming by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder have been far from invincible on the road of late with 7-point losses at Atlanta and Utah this month. The Lakers crushed the Heat by 10 points at home earlier this month and they'll be looking to make a statement against the Thunder as well. Pound the Lakers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +5.5
Bottom Line: Expect the Nets to cover this number at home tonight as they leave it all on the floor to avoid being swept by Indiana. The Nets have lost the season's first 3 matchups but the last 2 losses have come by just 7 and 5 points. Fat and happy off a big win over Miami, I don't expect the Pacers to give the Nets the respect they deserve tonight. The Pacers are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, Indiana is only 2-13 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Vogel. It has lost by an average of 5.8 points in this situation. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -2
Bottom Line: The Bucks have lost consecutive games by 21 and 9 points and have a pair of 5-point losses to Atlanta this season and yet they are favored? Odds makers clearly want the public on the Hawks, who have won 4 in row, but we won't fall for the trap. I believe Milwaukee will play with a greater sense of urgency tonight as it is currently on the outside of the playoff picture. Plus, I expect Atlanta to be more focused on tomorrow's showdown with the Bulls. Playing against underdogs (ATLANTA) off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced an 83-48-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons. The SU record of this system is 105-30 and the teams fitting into it have lost by an average of 8.9 points. Pound Milwaukee.

5* Wiseguy NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Bobcats +7
Bottom Line: This aging Boston squad has really struggled when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back, especially on the road. In fact, the C's are only 1-8 ATS this season when playing their 2nd game in as many days away from home. They haven't just lost these games, they've lost them by an average of 12.6 points. It is also worth mentioning that the Celtics are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on no rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Additionally, Bean Town is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games and 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet Charlotte.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +7
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies have lost 3 in a row, but that's not about to keep me off them. They are a sizzling 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after 3 or more consecutive losses and have only lost in this situation by an average of 0.1 points. The Lakers have won the season's first 2 meetings but the Grizzlies are 49-31 ATS in their last 80 games when playing with double revenge. They have only lost these games by an average of 1.3 points. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. We'll fade LA.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Mavs +3.5
Bottom Line: The Mavs have won 4 straight over Houston with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. The last time the Mavs lost in Houston was Dec. 31, 2009 and they only lost that game by 3 points. The Mavs are an incredible 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll side with the reigning NBA champions in the small dog role here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Year on Raptors +5.5
Bottom Line: The books want the money coming in on NY, who enters riding a 5-game win streak and defeated the Raptors by 19 on March 20, but we won't oblige them. That embarrassing loss, and blowing a 12-point lead in their last game against the Bulls, will have them extremely motivated here. Toronto has lost 3 in a row but is 14-4 ATS this season after losing 3 of their last 4 games. The Raptors have actually won by an average of 0.4 points in these contests. Also, the Knicks are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. The Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pound Toronto.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6.5
Bottom Line: The Pacers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Pacers have lost their last 4 on the road and could get stung again here versus a Washington squad with home wins over the Thunder and Lakers. Take the points.

5* NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Spurs -9.5
Bottom Line: Having had 3 full days of rest and hungry to bounce back from a loss to Dallas and to avenge a pair of loss to Minnesota, look for the Spurs to roll tonight. The Spurs haven't lost consecutive games since January. They are 5-0 following their last 5 defeats, winning those games by an average of 16.6 points. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Also, the Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pacers -3.5
Bottom Line: I'll grab the Pacers laying a small number in this bounce back spot considering the dominance the home team has displayed in this series. The home team has won each of the last 4 by at least 7 points with Indiana winning its 2 home games during this span by 27 and 13.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -4
Bottom Line: The Nuggets will be out for some serious revenge here after they were defeated by 10 and 18 points respectively by Dallas last month. Keep in mind that Denver's best player (in my opinion), Gallinari, didn't play in either of those games. With Gallinari back and playing well, Denver should be able to taste some sweet revenge here. Coach Karl is 105-81 ATS when out for revenge for a same season as the coach of Denver. He's also 41-17 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season with the Nuggets. Look for Denver to hand Dallas its 8th straight road loss tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Cavaliers +2.5
Bottom Line: Playing against all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games of allowing opponents to shoot 47% or better - has produced a 32-9 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 4.0 points. In addition, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Cavs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +8
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves will be the more motivated team tonight as they look to snap a 17-game losing streak in the series. They have played the Lakers to 5 and 3-point games in 2 of the season's 3 meetings. Plus, the Lakers could be dealing with some chemistry issues after moving Derek Fisher, Luke Walton and Jason Kapono. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Lakers 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Clippers -7
Bottom Line: The Suns have been playing well but have only played one road games since Feb. 19. They have lost each of their last four road contests by an average of 11.5 points. The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet the Clippers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Underdog Game of the Week on Hornets +5
Bottom Line: The Hornets catch the Lakers at the right time as LA used a ton of energy in last night's double-OT win. The Lakers have struggled on the road all season. They are even on a 0-5 ATS slide in road games when matched up against teams with losing marks at home. The Hornets have covered the number in 10 of their last 13 when catching points. Pound New Orleans.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nuggets -5
Bottom Line: The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Denver has won 4 straight at home against Atlanta with those wins coming by 9.5 points on average. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +4
Bottom Line: The Timberwolves are still a quality team without Rubio. They are more talented than Phoenix top-to-bottom and will prove it here tonight. The Suns defeated the Wolves by 9 points earlier this month, but Minnesota shot just 39.5% from the field in that game. The poor shooting can be attributed to tired legs as that was Minnesota 3rd game in as many days. It is fresher heading into this one and will shoot the ball a lot better. The Wolves are an impressive 17-7 ATS when catching points this season. It is winning by an average score of 99.2 to 98.6 in these games. Look for the Wolves to notch an outright win.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks +1
Bottom Line: I like this experienced Atlanta squad to bounce back from consecutive defeats against the young Kings tonight. Sacramento is coming off a big double-digit win over the reigning NBA champs but is only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. Atlanta has won 7 in a row against the Kings with those wins coming by an average of 8.6 points. Also, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Bet Atlanta in this bounce back spot against a team it has had a great deal of success against.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +9.5
Bottom Line: We may not get the Pacers in a better spot all season. They have had 3 days to get fresh following consecutive defeats, and we can expect maximum effort after losing the season's first two meetings with Miami badly. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games when taking the floor with 3 days' rest or more. The Pacers desperately want to show that they can play with anyone in the East. I think they take a step toward proving that by taking the Heat down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Year on Lakers -113
Bottom Line: After blowing a 12-point lead against Detroit Tuesday and a 21-point lead against Washington Wednesday, the Lakers will be out for blood against a team they have defeated 17 straight times. Playing on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, has produced a 12-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Also, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Suns +3.5
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Suns to end their 8-game losing streak to the Mavs tonight. Dallas has dropped its last 4 on the road while Phoenix has won 5 of its last 6 at home and that lone home defeat only came by 2 points. The Mavs are not the same team that won the title last season and yet they are continuing to get that type of respect from odds makers. The Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite period. The Suns have covered the number in 5 of their last 6 at home and 7 of their last 10 as an underdog of fewer than 5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -6.5
Bottom Line: Boston is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 on the highway. It's also just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 away games when matched up against a team that has won more than 60% of its home games.

5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Pistons +6
Bottom Line: A Lakers squad that is just 6-12 on the road this season enters this matchup overvalued following a big win over Miami. L.A. hasn't won by more than 5 points on the road all season and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in the road chalk. The Pistons are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Mavs -7.5
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Utah following a big win over Miami last night. It's a bounce back spot for Dallas, who is out to snap a 4-game skid. The Mavs are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.0 points. The Mavericks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the home team is 24-8-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Cavaliers +10
Bottom Line: Even if an illness keeps Kyrie Irving out, this is a lot of points for the Bulls to be laying on the road. The Bulls handed Cleveland the most lopsided home loss in franchise history six weeks ago, which assures us the Cavs will leave it all on the floor here. The Cavaliers have been a real nice home dog, covering the spread in 7 of their last 9 in the role. We'll pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Trail Blazers +4.5
Bottom Line: Playing on home underdogs in non-conference games that are extremely well rested playing 3 or less games in 10 days has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 3.7 points on average but have won by an average of 1.7. Also, fading Miami when it enters a contest off 3 of more consecutive home wins has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS run. The Heat are losing by an average of 9.1 points in this spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Warriors +7
Bottom Line: The Warriors are being undervalued here because of last night's embarrassing loss to Indiana. They are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Expect Golden State to take Atlanta right down to the wire.

5* Wiseguy NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Pistons +4
Bottom Line: After getting clobbered by the 76ers in the season's first two meetings in Philly, look for the Pistons to take the floor with focus and hunger tonight. The 76ers have lost 5 in a row by an average of 8.6 points. Considering they're recent struggles, I don't believe they are worth of laying this many points on the road. The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the points for insurance but I like Detroit to win this one outright.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Heat -9.5
Bottom Line: Miami is 14-2 at home and those 14 wins have come by an average of 15.5 points. These wins haven't just come against cupcakes either. The Heat have double-digit wins at home over the Pacers, Spurs, Lakers, 76ers, Magic and Knicks. The Knicks are an improved team with Lin at the point, but they have benefited from a soft schedule. Lin is yet to face a defensive team like the Heat, and I expect him to struggle. Miami has rattled off 7 straight wins by an average of 16.9 points, and it will be out to prove to everyone that the Knicks have been overhyped.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks +7.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks are dealing with some injuries and have lost back-to-back games but shouldn't be catching this many points. Atlanta's last two losses came in Portland (arguably the toughest place to play in the West) and at Chicago (arguably the best team in the East). It will be excited to go to battle against a Knicks team that plays no defense. NY is 1-10 ATS in home games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 108.5 to 99.5 in this situation. Bet the Hawks.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Trail Blazers -4
Bottom Line: Odds makers expect San Antonio's 11-game win streak to come to an end tonight, and so do I. The Spurs have lost their last 6 in Portland and those losses have come by 8.2 points per game. With this in mind, the Blazers are showing good value as just a 4-point fave. Bet bet Blazers.

5* NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards +6
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Suns following last night's satisfying revenge win against the Lakers. The Wizards have 2 days' rest on their side and will be hungry to end a 9-game skid in the series. Phoenix has constantly been overvalued against weak competition and this remains the case this evening. The Suns are 0-9 ATS in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) over the last 2 seasons. It is barely winning these games by an average score of 108.0 to 107.9.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers +1
Bottom Line: Look for Philly to bounce back strong here against a team it has defeated 3 straight times by an average of 17.7 points. Under coach Collins, the 76ers are 10-0 ATS after a playing a game in which 165 total points or less were scored. The Sixers have won by an average score of 100.6 to 85.6 in this situation. Also, Minnesota is only 1-8 ATS in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. Take Philly.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Warriors +5.5
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to back the Warriors catching 5.5 points even after last night's double-digit loss in Oklahoma City. Consider that Golden State is 28-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 108.2 to 107.4 in these games. In addition, the Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Take Golden State.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on 76ers -3
Bottom Line: I'm confident Dallas' absences will be too much to overcome this evening. The Mavs are expected to be without Delonte West, Rodrique Beaubois and Jason Terry, which really only leaves the aging Jason Kidd to deal with Philly's deep backcourt. Also, playing on home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) off a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), has produced a 41-16 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have won by an average of 8.3 points. Take the 76ers.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bulls -8
Bottom Line: I really like the Bulls in this spot. Playing against road teams (BOSTON) off a double-digit loss in a game in which they were favored by 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, has produced a 24-5 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting the parameters of this system have lost by an average of 10.7 points. Also, this system is a spotless 4-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Losing at Boston Sunday can't be sitting well with the team with the best record in the East. Even if Rose can't go, I like Chicago in this revenge spot. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Celtics are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 0 days rest and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* Game of the Month on Kings +6.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are due for a major letdown following last night's buzzer-beating win in Toronto. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games at Madison Square Garden. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +3
Bottom Line: This is an extremely difficult spot for the Heat, who will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days. The Pacers will have the benefit of 2 days' rest and are guaranteed to leave it all on the floor as they face a 4-game losing streak. The Pacers have won 7 of 10 at home on the season and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The underdog is an incredible 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. We'll pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hornets +4
Bottom Line: The New Orleans Hornets, who have lost 8 in a row, want a win in the worst possible way. Fortunately, they find themselves in an ideal spot tonight. The Hornets have had 2 full days to prepare while the Jazz just played Sunday. The prep time is key considering New Orleans is 43-25 ATS in its last 68 home games when playing on 2 days' rest. It's winning by an average score of 99.4 to 94.6 in this situation. The Hornets will be lacking no confidence in this one either since they played the Jazz to a 4-point game in Utah last month and since the Jazz are just 3-7 on the road this season. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two, and I expect this trend to continue.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Wizards +6
Bottom Line: Detroit is getting too much respect here. It has been favored just 3 times all season, and it lost straight up in the 2 games it was favored by 5 points or more. The Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves -6
Bottom Line: The Knicks are riding as high as they have all season having rattled off 4 straight wins despite injuries to Melo and Stoudermire. Lin-sanity is getting out of control and I expect the T-Wolves to hand the Knickerbockers a reality check this evening. The T-Wolves are the more talented team and will be lacking no motivation following consecutive defeats. They've won 2 straight, 6 of their last 7 and 11 of their last 14 at home against the Knicks. Their 2 most recent home wins in the series have come by 21 and 9 points. Lay the number.