Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Kings/Nets UNDER 204.5

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on a team that has finished over the total in at least its last 2 games has resulted in a 108-58 (65%) record the last 5 seasons if that team is playing an opponent that has finished over the total in at least its last 4 games. Additionally, playing the UNDER on a road team when the total is 200 or higher has resulted in a 72-38 (66%) record since 1996 if the road team averages 102 PPG or more and is playing a team that averages 92-98 PPG, and if the road team allowed 55 points or more in the 1st half in its last 2 games. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hornets +6.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from OKC following a big Christmas Day win in San Antonio. The Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season, and they'll be more rested and more prepared for this contest. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their 4 road games. Charlotte is 10-1 ATS in December road games under coach Clifford. Pound the Hornets.

5* WISEGUY CHRISTMAS *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to a combination of Cleveland's back-to-back blowout wins and covers and Miami's ugly loss to the 76ers. This will be an emotional game for LeBron James as he returns to the place he won 2 Championships. He struggled mightily in the season opener in his return to Cleveland and I believe his emotions will also get the better of him in this one. I also expect a big effort from the Heat as they look to show LeBron that he would have been better off staying in South Beach. At the end of regulation, Cleveland has won by more than 5.5 points in just 3 of 11 road games this season. Miami has been a great bounce-back team this season at 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. Pound the Heat.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +14

Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game of the Cavs, which are off a big blowout win over Memphis and have a Christmas day showdown at Miami on deck. I don't see them giving the lowly T-Wolves their full attention tonight. Playing against home favorites after a game where they shot 60% or better has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, Tuesday night double-digit dogs that have a win percentage of 25% or worse on the season are 104-59 ATS since 1996. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY NBA Pre All-Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Rockets -3.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Rockets, who were bounced by Portland in six games in last season's playoffs. What stings even worse is how they lost. It looked like Houston was going to force a Game 7, then Damian Lillard nailed a three-pointer as time expired. You just don't forget losses like that, and this is the first meeting since. Houston will be ready. The Rockets have been a much better play than Portland when facing quality competition. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60% while the Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Houston.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4

Bottom Line: Playing road teams that are out for revenge for a home blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a home win, has resulted in a 41-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Off a big win over the Clippers last night, Denver will have a tough time getting past a more motivated and better rested Indiana squad. Pound the Pacers.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Bulls +6.5

Bottom Line: Memphis is being overvalued following back-to-back big wins over Golden State and San Antonio. The Bulls have been outstanding on the road where they are 11-4, and they are an incredible 17-5 ATS in Friday night road game over the last three seasons. Playing underdogs that are outscoring opponents by 3 PPG or more on the season and are matched up against a team that is coming off a close win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 46-21 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Bulls.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +1.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Nuggets, who were defeated by double digits in Houston Saturday. I expect home court to make the difference as the home team is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 at home. These 4 wins came by an average of 12.0 points. Pound the Nuggets.

5* WISEGUY NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Kings +7.5

Bottom Line: The Kings are 17-4 ATS the last 3 seasons following a stretch of 8 or more losses in a 10-game span. They are also on a 32-16 ATS run as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9.0 points. Playing against favorites in a game involving teams with a +/- 3.0 PPG scoring differential, provide they are off a blowout win of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Sacramento.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wizards +2.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Playing against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or better and are playing a winning team, has resulted in a 63-27 (70%) ATS record since 1996. Pound Washington.

5* WISEGUY EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Hornets -2.5

Bottom Line: The Hornets have the edge at home against a Boston team that has lost 5 of its 1st 7 road games. Charlotte has been resting comfortably at home all month and has had 4 full days to prepare for the Celtics. Boston is playing for the 3rd time in 4 days with its most recent one going to double OT so it will be showing some fatigue. The Celtics have been awful on defense this season, especially on the road where they are giving up 110.3 ppg. They are 15-26 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 versus NBA Atlantic division foes. Pound Charlotte.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +4.5

Bottom Line: Fatigue will be an issue for Phoenix, which is playing a 4th game in 5 days and went to OT last night in LA. Playing against home teams that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and are playing a 4th game in 5 days has resulted in a 139-86 ATS record since 1996. This system has gone 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Heat.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Timberwolves +7

Bottom Line: Look for Houston to get caught looking ahead tonight. The Rockets are prime for a letdown following a win over Memphis and with a tough game against Phoenix on deck tomorrow. They have already defeated the Timberwolves by double-digits this season so they will be thinking they can just show up and win. Minnesota, however, just lost to the worst team in the league, and I'm expecting an inspired effort in the aftermath of that. The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days' rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +4

Bottom Line: This is a difficult spot for Toronto, which is playing its 2nd road game in as many nights and it's 3rd in 4 days. It has a big showdown with Cleveland on deck so it will be easy to peek ahead to that one since it handled Utah easily at home last month. The Jazz will be the fresher team having had yesterday off. They'll also be the more motivated squad as they look to end a 6-game slide and avenge that earlier loss in Toronto. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +7.5

Bottom Line: The Hawks are the more rested team having had the last 2 days off while the Celtics just had yesterday off. Fresh legs have done Atlanta no good against the number as it is 6-25 ATS in its last 31 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Boston has shown the ability to score the basketball, and that makes it an attractive dog here. Playing underdogs that average 103 or more ppg that are taking on a team that has scored 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 96-45 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +3

Bottom Line: Look for the Jazz to bounce back at home following Saturday's 112-96 loss to the Clippers. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Nuggets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 versus the Western Conference and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NBA Northwest division. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6

Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Jazz as I expect them to take the Clippers right down to the wire. LA has played 5 road games the last 7 days, and I think it runs out of gas against a Utah squad that has had the last 2 days off. The Jazz have won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 34 of their last 36 home games against the Clippers. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves +1.5

Bottom Line: Heavy legs will be an issue for the Bucks as they hit the road, where they are 3-5, after playing at home last night. Minnesota will be very fresh having had the last 3 days off. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are an outstanding 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 versus NBA Central division foes, and they've had plenty of success against Milwaukee, going 23-11 SU & 22-10-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings. The Wolves have won 4 straight in the series and should be able to make it 5 in a row in this advantageous scheduling spot. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Kings/Pelicans UNDER 203.5

Bottom Line: We saw 206 points scored when these teams met last week, but I expect defensive adjustments to be made and this one to come in comfortably under the number. Eric Gordon scored 17 points in that contest but won't be available here. The Kings aren't an overly aggressive defensive team. They prefer to pack it in and force opponents to wind down the shot clock. That bodes very well for us as their approach slows down the game and prevents easy transition opportunities for the opposition. The numbers support this too as the Kings are 17-5 UNDER after 4 straight games of forcing 14 turnovers or less under coach Malone. Rebounding is a big part of unders plays. The Kings are one of the best in the league on the boards and that limits second chance opportunities for their opponents. When the total is 200 or higher for a Tuesday game, playing the UNDER on a team like Sacramento that outrebounds its opponents by an average of 3.0 per game or more has resulted in a 61-29 record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +6

Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Portland. The Blazers are on a 12-26 ATS slide after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Celtics are 9-1 in the last 10 home meetings in the series. Pound Bean Town.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +3

Bottom Line: This will be a tough encore for Washington after upsetting Cleveland last night. The Wizards are on a 5-16 ATS slide in road games off an upset win of 10 points or more at home. Kidd has shown he can make proper adjustments and motivate his teams after they take it on the chin. His teams are 13-3 ATS off a road loss of 10 points or more. Pound Milwaukee.

5* WISEGUY NBA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK on Pistons +3

Bottom Line: The Pistons are showing exceptional value in the home underdog role as this has been a matchup dominated by the home team. The home squad is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.0 points. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +12.5

Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Cleveland, which already has a comfortable win over Denver and has the reigning champs up next. Not only is this a revenge spot for Denver, it's a bounce-back spot after yesterday's 16-point loss at New York. Playing double-digit road dogs off a loss of 15 points or more that are up against a team that has posted a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in a 27-6 ATS record since 1996. Pound the Nuggets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Wizards -8.5

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Orlando, which will be playing for the 4th time in 5 days and the 8th time in 12 days. Washington had 3 days of rest prior to its last game and 2 days of rest prior to this one. It gets 3 more days off after this game so it has no reason to hold anything back. The Wizards won in Orlando by 7 points earlier this season, but that win was the 2nd game of a road back-to-back. This is a much better spot. The Wizards are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Magic with these wins coming by an average of 9.6 points. The Wizards are also 5-0 in their last 5 home games against the Magic with these victories coming by 14.4 points on average. Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Nuggets +3.5

Bottom Line: Indiana beat Miami in its last game, but it is a very poor 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. The Pacers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games versus teams with a losing record and 12-31 ATS in their last 43 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Denver is coming off a pair of double-digit defeats to Portland. However, road teams off 2 straight double-digit defeats are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons if their opponent is coming off a game where both it and its foe scored 90 points or less. This system is 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Denver.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7

Bottom Line: The Pistons are off to a slow start, but they are a talented team and it's only a matter of time before they start clicking. They'll be confident here as they go up against a Washington team they have had a great deal of success against, and I'm not hesitating to take them getting a big number. They are 18-5 in the last 23 meetings. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Suns -5

Bottom Line: The Kings crushed Denver Wednesday but are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Suns lost by double digits to Memphis the same night but are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS at home when the total is between 205 and 209.5 under Hornacek, and they have won these games by 11.0 points on average.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Lakers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The Lakers have gone over the total in each of their last 3 games with at least 218 total points scored in each. And, these teams combined for 218 total points when they met last week. Yet, odds makers have set a total 3 points lower, which means they're begging for action on the over. We won't bite. When the total is 210 or higher, playing the UNDER on teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 83-43 (66%) record since 1996. Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5

Bottom Line: I like the 76ers at home catching nearly double digits against a Houston team that's riding high from a 3-0 start. With the Heat, Spurs and Warriors this week, the Rockets will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand. Besides, home court has been huge in this matchup with the home side going 6-0 ATS in the last 6. Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers -3.5

Bottom Line: It looks like the Warriors will again be without David Lee, and it finally hurts them here. Lee will be missed against a Portland team that will expose the Warriors down low with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman. Bogut is a good interior defender, but he can't handle all these guys on his own, which is basically what is being asked of him tonight. The Blazers should also be the fresher team as they had yesterday off while the Warriors played last night and traveled. Pound Portland.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +2

Bottom Line: Tough spot for Phoenix as it hits the road for the first time this season following a huge win over the Spurs. This one has letdown written all over it for the Suns, who are 0-2 in their last 2 versus the Jazz and 1-4 in their last 4 in Utah. They are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and have dropped 23 of 35 in Salt Lake City. Pound Utah.
 

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6

Bottom Line: The Kings were horrible in their opener, shooting just 30.8% from the field and committing 26 turnovers. We're getting a great number here because of it, and rest assured they'll put forth a much better effort tonight. The Kings won 123-119 as a 5-point dog the last time Portland visited. And, they lost by a single point in Portland in the most recent meeting so I'll gladly take the points here. The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +13

Bottom Line: The Knicks were smoked last night by a Chicago Bulls team that can really defend. I expect them to shoot the basketball much better tonight. The Cavs are loaded with talent, but it will take them some time to jell on both ends of the floor. The Knicks are a fantastic 14-5 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a loss greater than 10 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +4

Bottom Line: This is a game the Kings have been looking forward to. They were embarrassed 102-69 at Golden State last April and will be highly motivated as a result. Sacramento is 24-11 in its last 35 home games versus the Warriors, and it has won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 7 of its last 10 home games in the series. Pound the Kings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs +4.5

Bottom Line: Dallas has been an awesome road play under coach Carlisle and is 51-26 ATS all-time under his watch in road games played in the first half of the season. It is 72-40 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of 6 points or less, including 24-11 ATS in this role the past 2 seasons. For the Spurs, opening night will be about honoring last season's achievement. For the Mavs, it will be about revenge. They pushed the Spurs to the limit in last season's playoffs and will be out for a little payback. Pound the Mavericks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 5 *BEST BET* on Heat +6

Bottom Line: The two-time defending champs won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to take San Antonio right down to the wire with a chance to pull out the victory in Game 5.  Miami is 29-13 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons and 24-9 ATS in road games off a loss of 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat know they have to do a better job on the boards.  A big reason why they won Game 2 is because they won the rebounding battle.  They came up with just 35 boards last game but are 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games after a game of 35 rebounds or less.  They have won by an average of 12.9 points in this spot.  Lastly, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Heat -5

Bottom Line: Miami played well in Game 3, the Spurs just happened to set a Finals record for first-half shooting.  Because the Heat were playing catch-up from the start in Game 3 and because they know this is basically a must-win game, they will come out with the type of fury we are used to seeing from them following a loss.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, and they have an average winning margin of 9.6 points in these games.  Additionally, Miami is 13-2 ATS following any home loss over the last 2 seasons and has won by an average of 13.4 points in these games.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Miami lost its first home game against the Spurs in last year's Finals and then won its next three.  2 of those wins came by 7+ points.  Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 3 *BEST BET* on Heat -4.5

Bottom Line: The Heat are 40-9 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.  They are 29-5 at home in the playoffs since the start of the 2012 postseason and are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games going back to last year's Finals.  These 11 victories carry an 11.6-point average margin of victory.  The Spurs have shown some weakness on the road where they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9.  They've lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in these playoffs with the 3 defeats coming by 11, 9 and 13.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Spurs have finished OVER the total in back-to-back games.  The Heat are 4-0-1 OVER in their last five.  These trends are significant because teams that are off 2 or more consecutive OVERS and matched up against an opponent off 4 of more consecutive OVERS are on a 125-69 UNDERS run the last 5 seasons (note: this system excludes pushes).  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Spurs' last 16 games following a win of more than 10 points and 6-1 in the Heat's last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  GM 1 would have gone under easily if the Spurs and Heat didn't combine for 25 made 3-point shots.  We hadn't seen more than 18 total 3-point makes in the previous 4 meetings so I definitely don't expect the long balls to fall so often in GM 2.  Additionally, Miami will place a big emphasis on the defensive end after allowing San Antonio to shoot 58.8% from the floor.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, playing the UNDER on teams that scored 110 points or more in 2 straight games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 24-6 (80%) record since 1996 if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half last game.  We've seen an average of only 182.9 total points scored in this situation.  This number is off the mark considering these teams have combined for 198 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 PUNISHER on Spurs -4

Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1.  San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs.  It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests.  Each of these wins came by at least 6 points.  Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Thunder -158

Bottom Line: I'm taking the Thunder on the money line to rule out any sort of backdoor ATS loss in a game I fully expect them to win.  OKC has complete confidence at home where it is on a 9-0 run versus the Spurs.  All 9 wins have come by at least 6 points.  The Spurs are 0-3 in their last 3 road games, losing these contests by 11.0 points on average.  The Thunder are 4-0 in their last 4 at home, winning these by 8.5 points on average. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins combing by 9 points or more.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Pacers +7.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued on the road because of what happened in the first 2 games of this series in Miami.  They lost them both by 12 points, but they weren't facing elimination in either.  Teams staring elimination in the face tend to play with desperation.  We saw that from Indiana last game, and we saw it in their first round series against Atlanta.  After losing highly competitive series' to the Heat the past 2 seasons, Indiana made a concerted effort to get home court so that it would have the edge in another playoff series.  It knows its gets a Game 7 at home so it will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of getting an opportunity to play a Game 7 in its own building.  Indiana cannot stomach losing in the playoffs to the Heat 3 consecutive seasons so I'm expecting an outstanding effort.  Additionally, the Pacers have started to figure out the Heat.  After allowing Miami to shoot above 50% in the first 3 games, they have held the Heat to 46.4% and 45.3% in the last two.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of the last 9 meetings and 12 of the last 19.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Finals Total of the Year on Thunder/Spurs OVER 206

Bottom Line: The last 3 games of this series have come in under the number, and we are catching a very favorable number as a result, especially in San Antonio where these teams have averaged 211.3 points over the past 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 20-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders the last 3 seasons.  They are 18-9 OVER in home games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Spurs are 6-2 OVER in their last 8 home games and 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: We've seen 186 and 192 total points scored in the last 2 games of this series, but both of those were in Miami.  These teams are on a 4-1 UNDERS run in Indiana where they have combined to average just 176.4 points during this span.  Indiana is 19-7 UNDER in home games when the total is 180.0-189.5 this season.  We've seen an average of just 181.1 total points scored in these games.  Expect a slow-paced, defensive war in this elimination game.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Thunder -140

Bottom Line: I fully expect the Thunder to cover the 2.5 points, but I'm taking them on the money line for insurance.  The return of Ibaka made a huge difference in Game 3, and his presence will be felt again.  Plus, coach Brooks' decision to play Reggie Jackson alongside Westbrook and to give Steven Adams extended minutes paid off as well.  We'll see more of the same tonight.  After getting Game 3, the Thunder will be lacking no confidence, especially in this building where they are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 versus the Spurs.  They have won these by an average of 10.9 points.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +6.5

Bottom Line: Indiana is a team of response, going 31-17 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road loss.  Recently, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following any loss.  They have really responded well following embarrassing double-digit defeats.  In fact, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 10 points or more and have won these contests by 6.0 points on average.  Prior to Game 3, these teams had traded wins in 13 consecutive games which shows how competitive this series has been.  We'll pound the Pacers catching points in this double-revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER 184

Bottom Line: Indiana hasn't been at its best defensively in this series, and it knows it.  That's why it is currently facing a 2-1 series deficit.  After allowing the Heat to connect on 54.4% of their shots in Game 3, the Pacers will tighten the screws tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Indiana's last 6 games following a loss and 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 34-14 UNDER on the season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points.  We've seen an average of just 180.8 total points scored in these games.  Miami's defense has been solid the past 2 games, holding the Pacers to just 83 and 87 points.  The Heat are 23-11 UNDER in home games after holding foes to 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Spoelstra.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -2

Bottom Line: The Spurs have looked unstoppable thus far in the series, but Kevin Durant and company won't go down without a fight.  With the home crowd behind them, the Thunder will come storming back in Game 3.  OKC is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Spurs, winning these by 11.1 points on average.  The Spurs have been unconscious at home lately, but the road hasn't treated them nearly as well.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6

Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments.  OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight.  I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass.  Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13.  The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -138

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Heat will bounce back, and while I fully expect them to cover the 2.5 points, I'm protecting my investment by taking them on the money line at what I consider to be a pretty nice price.  Every point counts, especially this time of year.  The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  They are also 26-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent.  The Pacers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS off an upset win as a home dog under coach Vogel, and it has lost by an average of 8.8 points in this spot.  When the line is +3 to -3, playing against road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game has resulted in a 37-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  This system tightens up to 24-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS this season.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: Neither team played much defense in Game 1, as evidenced by each squad shooting 51+% from the floor.  I expect a huge commitment on the defensive end from both teams here.  That's been the norm in this matchup as we saw combined scores of 184, 167, 191, 174, 175, 168 and 169 in the 7 meetings prior to Game 1.  The Pacers are 18-7 UNDER this season in home games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points.  Just 181.6 points were scored on average in these games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points.  They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover.  San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.  It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.  The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end.  Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim.  Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1.  The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds.  However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness.  The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series.  They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons.  I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup.  The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5.  The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances.  The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points.  The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat UNDER 189

Bottom Line: I fully expect to see a half-court, grind-it-out defensive battle in Game 5.  The Nets lost Game 4 as they allowed Miami to shoot 52.9% from the field, and they know they must tighten the screws if they are going to live to see another day.  I expect a very gritty performance from them.  I also expect to see Miami's killer instinct kick in.  The Heat want to end the series tonight so they can have a rest advantage against their Conference Finals foe.  They have held Brooklyn below 44% shooting 2 of the last 3 games, and they'll be dialed in defensively with a chance to punch their Conference Finals ticket.  These teams have finished UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings in Miami while combining for an average of 184 total points in these matchups so we are getting a great number here.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 181

Bottom Line: When the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points, plays UNDER on home teams with a winning percentage of 60-75% that are off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 18 seasons.  We've seen just 179.4 total points scored in these games on average.  Indiana is 28-19 UNDER at home this season, including 17-6 UNDER at home when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points.  Washington is 28-15 UNDER the last 3 seasons in road games when playing with double revenge.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Indiana.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Each of the first 3 games of this series have gone over the totals, and the Spurs have finished over the number in 6 straight going back to their first round series.  We are getting an excellent number here as a result, especially since the first 2 games of this series were below and at this number.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 3 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 73-33 record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on any team that has given up 110 points or more in 3 consecutive games and is coming off a game with a combined score of 205 points or more has resulted in a 35-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a win of 15 points or more and are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, the Spurs are 17-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards OVER 180

Bottom Line: The Wizards are 24-10 OVER the last 18 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more.  We have seen an average of 202 total points scored in these games.  Washington is also 18-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less the last 18 seasons.  We've seen 196.8 total points scored on average in these contests.  Indiana is 21-8 OVER in road games off a road win under coach Vogel, and we've seen an average of 195 total points in these games. The Wizards let the Pacers dictate a slow pace the last 2 games, and it cost them.  Washington had a lot of success pushing the ball against the Bulls in its opening series, and it will look to do that here because it knows without a doubt that doing so gives it the best chance to win.  An increased tempo greatly favors the OVER. Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel.  It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points.  The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.  Pound the Wizards.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5

Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence.  The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games.  The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points.  Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight.  I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3.  The Nets are 18-3 at home since February.  Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points.  Pound Brooklyn.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the superior defensive team.  The Pacers have held the opposition to 41.7% shooting or worse in 6 of their last 8 games.  Washington has held its opponents below the 41.7% mark just 2 times in its last 10 games.  Indiana gets in trouble when it gets too reliant on the 3-point shot.  It has diagnosed itself.  It only attempted 12 3's in Game 2 and made an extra-effort to go inside.  It paid off, and I expect the Pacers to stick with the same game plan.  The underdog has now covered each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 7, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Blazers +7

Bottom Line: Road teams that score an average of 103 points per game or more on the season are 39-12 ATS the last 18 seasons if they trailed by 20 points or more at halftime of their last game.  This system tightens up to 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.  Even with the Game 1 loss, the Blazers have still won 4 of the last 7 meetings.  And, they have lost by more than 7 points just twice in the last 8 meetings with the Spurs.  Pound Portland.

5* Wiseguy GM2 *BEST BET* on Thunder -5.5

Bottom Line: The Thunder have been an awesome investment when out for revenge for an upset defeat under coach Brooks, going 54-33 ATS in this spot.  In this spot at home the last 2 seasons, they are 17-7 ATS with an average winning margin of 10.9 points.  Teams headed up by coach Rivers are a dismal 36-59 ATS all-time following a road win of 10 points or more.  The Thunder, meanwhile, are 44-26 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more.  Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7

Bottom Line: Despite losing each of the 4 regular-season meetings with Brooklyn, Miami is laying quite a few points.  That's because Miami will be extremely fresh following a week off and highly focused as it looks to make a statement to Brooklyn that the playoffs are a different animal.  This line is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent are 54-27 ATS the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that is off an upset win over a division foe.  Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 2 consecutive wins against a division foe are 39-16 ATS the last 5 seasons.  After a grueling 7-game series, the Nets will run out of gas in the second half.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers -4

Bottom Line: Home court has been huge when these teams get together.  The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by at least 8 points.  Home court has especially been huge for the Pacers when facing the Wizards.  Indiana is 12-0 in its last 12 at home versus Washington with all 12 wins coming by at least 4 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -6

Bottom Line: Look for San Antonio to take care of business at home in Game 7.  The Spurs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Mavs with the wins coming by an average of 14.3 points.  The Spurs are 23-12 ATS off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in this spot.  They are also 64-46 ATS in home playoff games under coach Popovich, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8

Bottom Line: I believe odds makers aren't giving enough respect to a Memphis team that held Oklahoma City to 39.8% shooting or worse in Games 2-5.  Each of those 4 games went to OT, and I'm expecting another tight game with a place in the Western Conference Semis on the line.  Memphis has won or lost by fewer than 8 points in 12 of its last 16 versus the Thunder.  The Grizz are 14-6 ATS following a loss, 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 first-round playoff games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 at OKC.  The Thunder are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-3-1 in their last 4 in this series.  Pound Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Raptors/Nets UNDER 191

Bottom Line: Following their worst defensive performance of the series and staring elimination in the face, the Nets will put the clamps on defensively tonight.  The Nets needed to speed up the pace in Game 5 and look for three-point opportunities because these faced a huge deficit.  These two teams combined for 69 points from beyond the arc in the game.  They hadn't combined for more than 42 points from three in any of the other games of the series.  Both prior games played in Brooklyn in the series were played at a very slow pace, and we saw just 166 total points scored in Game 4.  We saw 200 total points scored in Game 3 despite the slow pace, but neither team was getting after it defensively the way they will in this elimination game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the Nets' last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Toronto is 10-1 UNDER after a close win of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.  We have seen only 187.3 total points scored on average in these 11 games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors +1.5

Bottom Line: Home court has been too big to ignore when these teams get together.  The home team is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings with the 10 wins coming by an average of 17 points.  Golden State is 16-3 in its last 19 home games versus the Clippers, including 6-1 in its last 7.  Combine the 10-2 series home trend and the 16-3 Warriors home trend, and we have a convincing 26-5 trend in our favor.  Additionally, Golden State is 30-15 ATS under coach Mark Jackson after a loss of 10 points or more, including 8-1 ATS in this spot this season with an average winning margin of 15.9 points.  Pound the Warriors.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 214

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 210 on all teams that have allowed 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 31-12 record the last 5 seasons if they are taking on an opponent that scored 105 points or more last game.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on home teams that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 40-15 record the last 5 seasons if the opponent is off a home win of 3 points or less.  Playing the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 on road teams that are off a home win of 3 points or less and are playing only their 2nd game in 5 days has resulted in a 25-7 record the last 5 seasons.  Game 4 should have finished under the total as only 212 total points were scored prior to OT.  Even with OT, these teams combined for only 175 shots so the pace slowed considerably since Game 3 when they combined for 195 shots.  Pound the UNDER as I expect the defensive intensity to pick up in this elimination game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Week on Clippers -5.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers have been dealing with some off-court issues surrounding the team owner.  However, Sunday's 21-point defeat assures us they will be extremely focused and motivated tonight.  The Clippers are an impressive 19-7 ATS following a loss this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 9.8 points in these contests.  They are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games directly following a defeat of more than 10 points.  They are also 13-2 ATS on the season following an upset loss and have responded to win by an average of 13.1 points in this spot.  Teams out for revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more that are off an upset loss of 15 points or more are 38-13 ATS the last 18 seasons.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference 1st Round Game of the Year on Bulls -5

Bottom Line: The defense wasn't there for Chicago in Game 1 as it allowed the Wizards to score 102 points on 48.6% shooting.  Recent history tells us the defense will be there for the Bulls tonight.  Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after giving up 100 points or more in its previous game.  The last 7 of these covers were also straight up wins by an average of 12.9 points.  Pound the Bulls as they tighten the screws defensively and bounce back strong.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -7.5

Bottom Line: Playing favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 102 ppg or more has resulted in a 52-22 ATS record since 1996 if they have combined with their opponents to score 205 points or more in 4 straight games and are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  If the contest takes place 42 games or later into the season, this system explodes to 35-10 ATS.  Since Doc Rivers came to town the Clippers are an impressive 18-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses, and they have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation.  They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivers when out for revenge for an upset defeat and have won in this situation by an average of 11.3 points.  Pound the Clippers.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers +5.5

Bottom Line: Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing 4 games or less in 10 days and are off at least 2 consecutive home wins are 53-28 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Portland has quietly been a terrific road investment all season, going 25-16 ATS overall and 4-0 ATS in its last 4.  The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but Portland took them to OT in Houston the last time these two met.  The Blazers are 20-9 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where they allowed 100 points or more.  The Rockets are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning record, and the underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Pound Portland, which enters the playoffs in better form.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers -7.5

Bottom Line: Defense wins in the NBA Playoffs, and Indiana is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA.  It has allowed just 88 ppg at home this season while the Hawks have allowed 104.4 ppg on the road.  The Pacers held the Hawks to 90.3 points while averaging 108.7 in 3 home wins in last season's playoff series.  Indiana might have entered the playoffs overconfident, but it struggled down the stretch of the regular season and lost badly on this floor to the Hawks just under 2 weeks ago.  The Pacers will be highly motivation to crush the Hawks and any upset aspirations in Game 1 as a result.  The favorite is 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings.  Pound the Pacers.