Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on UNDER 194

Bottom Line: The Cavaliers are facing elimination and that is going to have them laying everything on the line to keep the series alive with a win a home. They know their effort defensively has to be at it's best and I expect just that. They could also get some help with the Warriors battling the nerves of close out game to win the title. Pound the UNDER 194!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Cavs/Warriors OVER 195

Bottom Line: Golden State has decided to sacrifice offense for defense by switching up their rotation to feature more of Lee and less of Bogut. James and the Cavaliers weren't quite able to take advantage of the Warriors defense in Game 4, largely due to them just being exhausted. With fresh legs off the two day break, I look for Cleveland's offense to get back on track. I'm also expecting the Warriors to keep their offense rolling after a great performance in Game 4. Pound the OVER 195!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -2.5

Bottom Line: The NBA Playoffs are all about adjustments and I believe the Warriors found a wrinkle in the Cavaliers armor late in Game 3. Look for David Lee to get even more minutes in Game 4, as he really puts a lot of pressure on Cleveland's defense when they decide to double-team Curry out of the pick-and-roll. Lee's ability to pass and score is going to translate into easy baskets and in turn I look for it to get the Warriors role players into a rhythm. You also have to start wondering if Cleveland can sustain the kind of energy we have seen them display. Golden State will want this one more and I like their chances of getting the win. Pound the Warriors -2.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on OVER 194

Bottom Line: We have seen a pretty drastic change in the total from Game 1 when it closed at 204. While Game 1 would have went under had it not been for overtime and Game 2 flew under even with OT, the books have over-adjusted the total for Game 3. Curry is due for a big game and the Warriors are going to be looking to push even more, knowing the Cavs don't have a lot of depth and have to be worn down after laying it all on the line in Game 2. Offense steals the show tonight. Pound the OVER 194!

5* WISEGUY NBA FINALS *BEST BEST* on Cavaliers +8

Bottom Line: The loss of Kyrie Irving is big for Cleveland's chances of winning the series, but I think we are seeing an overreaction on the line. The Cavs still have the best player in the world in James and he's more than capable of keeping Cleveland within 8 points. While they lose out on some offense with Irving sidelined, they get better defensively. It's not out of the question that the Cavaliers win this game outright. Pound Cleveland +8!

5* WISEGUY NBA FINALS *BEST BET* on UNDER 204

Bottom Line: The Cavaliers have taken their defensive intensity to a whole different level in the playoffs and know that they will need to be at their best on that side of the ball to have any hopes of knocking off the Warriors for the title. Cleveland is giving up a mere 92.5 ppg in the playoffs. Golden State is just as good defensively and matchup well on that side with James and company. The Warriors are only giving up 96.3 ppg in the playoffs. While everyone is expecting a lot of offense, I think it's going to be a defensive series. Pound the UNDER 204!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Warriors -10

Golden State shuts the door on Houston tonight. There is simply no way the Rockets can replicate their performance from Game 4 and keep this game close. Bottom Line: Pound the Warriors!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Cavs -7.5

Cleveland dominated the first two games of this series in Atlanta before squeezing by in Game 3 in Cleveland. That performance was about as good as the Hawks could have played and they still came up short. Bottom Line: Pound the Cavs -7.5

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Warriors -5

Look for the Warriors to close this series out in Houston on Monday Night. The Rockets looked lost in Game 3. They may put up a bit of a fight, but in the end the Warriors walk away with a double-digit victory. Bottom Line: Pound the Warriors -5!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Hawks/Cavs Over 189.5

While the first two games in Atlanta were low-score affairs, we are jumping on the Over in Game 3 as linesmakers have completely blew it by setting the line too low! Game 1 featured a total of 199.5, Game 2 a total of 193 and now in Game three they have adjusted the number down to 189.5. Defenses will be more lax and both teams should near triple digits. There's simply too much value to pass on this total. Bottom Line: Pound the Hawks/Cavs Over 189.5!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Warriors -1

Bottom Line: You might expect the Rockets to head back home and avoid going down 0-3 in the series, but I'm not seeing it. While the Warriors have not played their best basketball of late, I don't think Houston could have played much better in the first two games and still came up short. Pound the Warriors -1!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on UNDER 196

Bottom Line: The books have once again set the mark too high for these two teams. The Hawks and Cavs managed to combine for just 185 points in the first game and that was with both teams shooting a respectable 44% from the field. Cleveland's offense is hit or miss with the absence of Love and injury to Irving. Hawks offense has been out of sync for quite some time now and yet this total reflects more of how the games went in the regular season than their current form. Atlanta brings the defensive intensity and this one should fly under the mark. Pound the UNDER 196!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -10

Bottom Line: Had it not been for an awful start that saw them fall behind by as many as 16 points in the first half, the Warriors would have won Game 1 by double-digits. The Rockets won't be so fortunate to get off to a big lead and I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry. While Harden scored 28 points, I was really impressed with the defense Golden State played on him. With Howard clearly hurt and likely out tonight, Houston is in serious trouble not only for Game 2 but for the entire series. Keep in mind that prior to their 4-point win in Game 1, the Warriors swept the season series with a 4 wins coming by at least 11 points. Pound the Warriors -10.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -105

Bottom Line: With the way Atlanta struggled against the Nets and Wizards and Cleveland coming off an impressive series win over a good Bulls team, oddsmakers are begging you take the Cavaliers with the line they set for the series opener. Atlanta is the smart play here at home, especially when you factor in how well the Hawks played against Cleveland during the regular season and the Cavs far from full strength going into the conference finals. Pound the Hawks -105!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Warriors -10

Bottom Line: The Warriors owned the Rockets in the regular season, going 4-0 with all 4 wins coming by at least 11 points. Houston lost on the road to LA by 25+ points twice and were trailing in the other by as many as 19. Golden State has had a full 3-days of rest to regain their focus after a tough series against Memphis, while Houston is forced to play on just 1-day of rest after a grueling 7-game series against the Clippers. Golden State is more talented and won't wear down like LA did with their deep roster. Rockets also have no answer defensively for Curry, which is going to have GS scoring at will in this series. Pound the Warriors -10!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Clippers -2

Bottom Line: While the Clippers have given Houston life, I expect them to step up to the plate and deliver in Game 7, similar to what we saw in their opening round series against the Spurs. Chris Paul lives for these kind of games and I expect him to be the difference in this one. There's a nice system backing up a play on LA as well. Road favorites who are scoring 103+ points/game after allowing 55 or more in the 1st half of each of their last two games are 70-35 (67%) ATS since 1996. Pound the Clippers -2!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks/Wizards UNDER 198

Bottom Line: These two teams have a great understanding of what the other is trying to do offensively right now and that showed in Game 5's low scoring affair that produced a mere 163 points. Atlanta has been out of sync for quite some time and the Wizards are more of a defensive team than people realize. With Washington facing elimination and Atlanta looking to advance to the conference finals, I look for both teams to bring all out defensive intensity for 48 minutes. Pound the UNDER 198!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -2

Bottom Line: I don't expect the Bulls to go away quietly, as I look for Chicago to come out inspired and force a Game 7 with a win at home tonight. The Bulls are expected to get back Gasol after he sat out the last two games, both of which Chicago narrowly lost. Cleveland is due for a letdown here after laying it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid falling behind 3-1 and then again in Game 5 at home to secure homecourt. Look for Rose to bounce back after a subpar finish to Game 5, as he should get a boost here from the energy of the home crowd. Pound the Bulls -2!

5* WISEGUY NBA *PERSONAL FAVORITE* on Grizzlies +

Bottom Line: This is too many points for the Grizzlies to be catching in this one. Memphis may have lost badly in Game 4 at home, but for the most part have shown they are an extremely difficult matchup for the Warriors. This is a classic example of where you can't overreact to the last game and instead have to look at the series as a whole. It's not out of the question that Memphis could win this game outright, but there's no way I'm passing up on the opportunity to back them as a near double-digit dog. Pound the Grizzlies +9.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers -

Bottom Line: Los Angeles has taken control of this series and I look for them to deliver another impressive performance and close out the series tonight in Game 5. The Clippers split their 2 games in Houston to start the series, but were without Paul for both of those games and could have easily won Game 2. With Paul in the lineup they won by 25 and 33 points at home. I believe the Rockets spirits have been crushed and even with their backs against the wall I don't see them playing up to their potential. Pound the Clippers -2.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on UNDER 195.5

Bottom Line: There has yet to be a game in this series that has seen more than 188 points. Clearly these two teams match up extremely well with the other, with the biggest keys being the Grizzlies ability to defend the 3-point line and keep the tempo down. I look for the defenses to continue to dominate and for tonight's contest to once again go below the mark set. With this being such a huge game for both teams in the series, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this ends up being the lowest scoring game yet. Pound the UNDER 195.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +7.5

Bottom Line: These two teams have alternated wins and losses in the series and I at least like the Rockets to cover the 7.5-point spread, as we are getting an inflated line here after the Clippers blowout win in Game 3. Houston couldn't have shot much worse (39.8%) from the field in Game 3, while LA was a blistering 55.4% shooting. The Rockets have too much talent to not turn those numbers around and I look for a big-time performance here from Harden with Houston in jeopardy of falling behind 1-3 in the series. Pound the Rockets +7.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on UNDER 197

Bottom Line: Each of the first two games in the series have finished with a combined score of 187 and I'm not expecting to see an offensive outburst with the series shifting to Memphis. The Grizzlies are an even stronger defensive team at home and Golden State is going to bring their best effort defensively here to avoid falling behind in the series. I think we are going to see a similar, if not lower, scoring affair in Game 3. UNDER is now 6-1 in Warriors last 7 conference semifinal games and 9-3 in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is 24-4 in Memphis' last 28 home games and 24-6-1 in their last 31 following a win. Pound the UNDER 197!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on UNDER 216

Bottom Line: We are getting an inflated total here due to the first two games of the series finishing over the mark. The total for Game 1 was just 212 points and the scoring tends to drop as a series progresses. With Chris Paul either sidelined or playing at less than 100%, LA needs to slow the pace way down. I also look for the Clippers defense to pick it up at home. Keep in mind that Game 2 only had 224 points with the two teams combining for a ridiculous 67 made free throws, 31 more than the two combined for in Game 1. I also think both teams are gassed at this point, which should lead to a slower pace and poorer shooting from the outside. Pound the UNDER 216!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 195

Bottom Line: These two teams combined for 191 points in Game 1 with an identical total of 195. Cleveland clearly isn't the same offensive team without Love and Smith to stretch the floor, making it unlikely they see a huge spike in their offensive production in Game 2. Chicago on the other hand could see their offense take a step back. Rose has not been the same player on just 1 day of rest, Butler's using most of his energy guarding LeBron and the Cavs are to make adjustments to not let Gasol shoot wide-open jumpers. I have this one finishing in the mid to low 180's. Pound the UNDER 195!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +

Bottom Line: The Warriors dominated Game 1 by 15-points, but I'm not expecting things to be easy for Golden State in Game 2. Memphis is expected to have Conley back and he's going to have a big impact on both sides of the ball. Grizzlies defense played well in the series opener, they just couldn't get anything going from the outside. Memphis not only has a chance to cover the spread, but if Conley does in fact play they could very well win this game outright. Pound the Grizzlies +10!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 196

Bottom Line: Without Kevin Love and J.R. Smith the Cavaliers lose a lot offensively, but should be improved defensively with more playing time for Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert. I think this is an extremely evenly matched series right now and these two teams understand the importance of getting off to a strong start. I look for both to bring their best efforts on the defensive end and for this game to fly under the total of 196. Pound the UNDER!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -5

Bottom Line: The Hawks aren't getting enough respect here as a mere 5-point home favorite. Atlanta destroyed Washington in their two home games during the regular season and I feel like the Hawks got some of their mojo back at the end of their opening series against the Nets. The Wizards looked impressive in their easy series win over the Raptors, but Toronto hadn't been playing well coming into the playoffs. I also think the Wizards will be a bit rustry coming off that long lay-off. Pound the Hawks -5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +

Bottom Line: The road team has actually had the upper hand in this series and the Spurs have positioned themselves to go on the road and win Game 7. LA had to use up a lot of energy to pull out Game 6 in San Antonio and you could see how tired they were. I look for the Clippers to keep it close early, but for the Spurs to take control in the 4th quarter and advance on to the next round. San Antonio knows what it takes to win a Game 7 and aren't going to be the least bit effected by this game being on the road. Pound the Spurs +2.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -3.5

Bottom Line: Brooklyn has played better than anyone expected to this point, but the Nets run ends tonight. Atlanta is too good a team to let this drag out any longer, similar to what we saw last night with the Bulls laying it on the Bucks in Game 5. The Nets have simply overachieved and aren't catching enough points here at home to cover. I like Atlanta to win here and to do so convincingly. Pound the Hawks -3.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -3.5

Bottom Line: I'm not buying the Bucks winning a 3rd straight game in this series. Milwaukee has clearly been the more motivated team in the last two games, but that's not going to be the case here tonight. Chicago has made it clear they know they need to pick up the intensity and with a full 2 days to get things figured out, I look for the Bulls to come out and dominate this game right from the finish. The extra day of rest should help Rose get his legs back under him and allow him to be the force he was in the first 3 of this series. Chicago quits messing around and punches their ticket to the conference quarterfinals. Pound the Bulls -3.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Hawks U200.5

Bottom Line: These two teams combined to score 191 or less in each of the first 3 games in the series before going off for 235 in a overtime contest in Game 4. The important thing to note is that they only combined for 208 in regulation and that was with both teams shooting lights out from the field. With the series sitting at 2-2 and so much on the line in Game 5, I'm expecting it to return to a grind it out game that finishes around the 185-190 mark. Pound the UNDER 200.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 221.5

Bottom Line: Due to these two teams flying over the total in their last two games, oddsmakers have been forced to drastically inflate tonight's total, creating some big time value on the UNDER at 221.5. Both teams have shot light 47% or better in each of the last two games and that's simply not going to hold up. Houston isn't going to let Dallas continue to run up and down the floor and the Mavericks aren't going to be as strong shooting the ball on the road. I look for a similar result here to Game 2, which the Rockets won 111-99. Pound the UNDER 221.5!

5* NBA WISEGUY *BEST BET* on Hawks -4.5

Bottom Line: The Hawks have not played up to their potential so far in this series and as a result they are showing some big time value here as a mere 4.5-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn allowed opponents to shoot 45.3% from the field during the regular season, which is why I'm not buying the Hawks offensive struggles being a result of the Nets defense. Atlanta is due for an offensive explosion and I look for them to win here comfortably. Pound the Hawks -4.5!

5* LAC/SA WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +6

Bottom Line: Love the value we are getting here with the Clippers as a 6-point dog. LA shot a miserable 34% from the field in Game 3, which in turn has jumped this line up a full 1.5-points from what it was listed at for Game 3. Easy for the public to fall in love with the Spurs after that great performance, especially after what they did last year. Clippers will be better offensively as they have to big of advantages with Paul and Griffin. Better shooting will have a strong impact on their play defensively. I got this one going right down to the wire and could definitely see LA winning this one outright. Pound the Clippers +6!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -4.5

Bottom Line: I believe the Bucks are both emotionally and physically drained from Thursday's double-overtime loss at home in Game 3. Chicago now has a 3-0 advantage in the series and I don't see them letting their foot off the gas in a close out game. Teams with a 3-0 series lead have covered the spread in Game 4 60% of the time since 2002 and 63% of the time in the 1st round. Pound the Bulls -4.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers/Spurs UNDER 203

Bottom Line: These two teams only managed to score 188 points in Game 2, but a 30-point overtime period pushed the final score to 118 and well over the total set for that game of 206.5. Keep in mind that the two only managed 199 points in Game 1 with a total of 208. Defensive gets an edge the more the series progresses and with this one tied at 1-1 and there being such a big advantage to going up 2-1, I think we are going to see this one fly under the mark. You also have to factor in Spurs are forced to play an injured Tony Parker and without him at full strength they must slow the pace to keep it close. Pound the UNDER 203!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans +5

Bottom Line: Warriors are getting a little too much respect here against a Pelicans team that has shown they can hang with the league's top team. New Orleans has shown they can win at home in a big spot like they will be facing tonight, as they held off the Spurs in the regular season finale 108-103 to punch their ticket to the postseason and knock San Antonio out of the No.2 seed. Other key thing here is I believe the Warriors know they are the better team and with a 2-0 series lead this is a prime spot for them to suffer a letdown. It's also worth noting that New Orleans won 103-100 as a 4.5-point home dog against the Warriors down the stretch on 4/7. Pound the Pelicans +5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Blazers/Wizards UNDER 190

Bottom Line: Memphis isn't a team that likes to push the ball. They want to grind it out and let their stingy defense do all the work. Their defense matches up extremely well with Portland's two starts Lillard and Aldridge, leaving the Blazers without any reliable options to turn to on the offensive end. The key here is that being down 0-1 is going to have Portland coming out extremely motivated on the defensive end, especially after how easily Memphis's offense scored in Game 1 (had 86 points after 3 quarters before scoring just 14 in the 4th with a 24-point lead). UNDER is 13-1 in Memphis's last 14 home games after allowing a shooting percentage of 35% or less and 26-8 in Blazers last 34 road games when revenging 4 or more straight losses. Pound the UNDER 190!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards/Raptors OVER 192.5

Bottom Line: After watching these two teams combine for just 179 points in an overtime affair in Game 1, the books have adjusted this total by quite a bit from the 194.5 line we saw in the opener. Typically I like to play a lot of unders in the postseason, but there's too much value here to pass up. These are two really good offenses. Wizards averaged 98.5 ppg and Toronto 103.8 ppg. Both teams shot under 40% in Game 1 and that's simply not going to last. I think this one will eclipse the 200 mark. Pound the OVER 192.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 187

Bottom Line: With Milwaukee in a desperate spot here trying to avoid an 0-2 hole and the Bulls equally motivated to take a 2-0 lead, I look for a tight low-scoring game. These two combined for 194 in Game 1 to go over the total of 186, but the important thing to note is they combined for just 83 points in the 2nd half after an offensive explosion in the 1st half. Each of the previous four meetings during the regular season all had a combined score of 186 or less and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they failed to reach 175 tonight. Pound the UNDER 187!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +10.5

Bottom Line: I know the Hawks dominated the regular season series, but 10.5-points is a lot to ask a team to cover by in the playoffs. Brooklyn can be a good team when they decide to show up and play and that shouldn't be an issue given this is the playoffs. I look for the Nets to keep it surprisingly close and cover this double-digit spread without any problem. Road underdogs of 10 or more, who have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are 27-7 (79%) ATS in April. Pound Brooklyn +10.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/Bulls UNDER 186

Bottom Line: While Chicago's defense wasn't as dominant as it's been in years past, don't let that fool you. The Bulls got after it on that side of the ball when they needed to. With the intensity that comes with the playoffs and the fact that they are arguably as healthy as they have been all season, I look for them to make life miserable for the Bucks. Keep in mind they held Milwaukee to just 84.8 ppg in the 4 meetings during the regular season. Bucks are also a solid defensive team and know they can't get in a shootout if they want any chance to win this game. These two teams combined for 186, 158, 182 and 181 in their 4 regular season meetings. Pound the UNDER 186!

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +11.5

Bottom Line: With Utah out of the playoff picture and Houston desperately needing a win here to ensure they get homecourt in the first round and potentially the No. 2 seed if the Spurs were to lose at New Orleans, the oddsmakers have inflated this line by quite a bit, creating some great value on the Jazz. Utah has won 7 of 9 with their two losses coming by a combined 3-points. This team has really came on strong down the stretch and while I don't expect them to win, I really like their chances of keeping it close enough to cover. Pound the Jazz +11.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 192.5

Bottom Line: With the Nets loss at home to the Bulls last night, the door has been left open for the Pacers to make the playoffs. Indiana simply needs to win out to take the 8th and final spot in the east. I'm expecting playoff-like intensity from the Pacers in this one. Washington doesn't have a whole lot to play for, but are trying to get some momentum built for the playoffs. While these two teams combined for 204 points in their most recent meeting, each of the previous 7 matchups saw the two teams combine for 190 or fewer points. Pound the UNDER 192.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Magic +7.5

Bottom Line: Orlando is showing great value here as a 7.5-point dog, as I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. While Miami is technically still alive for the 8th and final playoff spot, they are 2-games back of both Brooklyn and Indiana. They would need to win out and have both of those teams lose their final 2. Wade already seems to think their season is over..."Injuries are part of the game. It's not always who is the most talented team. It's who can stay the healthiest and we weren't able to do that this year to give ourselves a chance," Hard for Miami to show up for this one. Pound the Magic +7.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets -5.5

Bottom Line: Houston enters off a back-to-back losses to the Spurs, including a heartbreaking 103-104 home defeat to San Antonio in their last game. This sets up two profitable situations to back the Rockets here. Houston is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when they enter off a home loss. In both situations the Rockets are winning on average by 8.5+ points/game. Pound the Rockets -5.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to fade the Trail Blazers, who while mathematically are still alive for home court in the first round are all but locked in as the No. 4 seed and will have to begin their opening series on the road. Having recently lost Wesley Mattews and Dorell Wright for the season and watching Arron Afflalo suffer an injury that will have him sidelined for 1-2 weeks in their last game, Portland's primary focus over their last 3 games is to stay healthy. LaMarcus Aldridge isn't going to play tonight and I just don't see the Blazers showing up for this one. Utah is out to prove something and build for next year and wouldn't be surprised at all if they won outright. Pound the Jazz +6.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pelicans -8.5

Bottom Line: Whenever a team like the Suns that had realistic expectations of making the playoffs and has been officially eliminated, chances are they aren't going to show up, especially on the road. That's exactly the case we have here and adding even more value is that this is essentially a playoff game for the Pelicans, who control their own destiny for the No. 8 seed in the west. An unmotivated Phoenix team that doesn't have the size inside to contend with Anthony Davis points to a big blowout for New Orleans. Pound the Pelicans -8.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +6

Bottom Line: Most assume Atlanta isn't going to take this game seriously in the 2nd day of a back-to-back set, but the Hawks have made it clear that they are putting an emphasis on closing out the season strong. There's also some hidden value here with Atlanta, as they hold the rights to the Nets 1st round pick if Brooklyn fails to make the playoffs. The Hawks seem to have had that in the back of their minds in the first three meetings this season. Atlanta won 98-75 at Brooklyn on Dec. 5, 113-10 at home on Jan. 28 and just this past Saturday won at home 131-99. Even if some of the Hawks key players rest, Atlanta has the depth to keep this close and likely win outright. Pound the Hawks +6!

5* WISEGUY NBA *GAME OF THE MONTH* on Lakers +17.5

Bottom Line: There's no denying that the Clippers are the better team and could easily beat the Lakers by 20+ points if they wanted to, but I don't think the intensity is going to be there. These two teams just played 2-days ago with the Clippers routing the Lakers 106-78 as a 13.5-point favorite. The Clippers know all they have to do is show up to get a win and with a much-needed 3-day break on the horizon, I don't expect to see their best effort. On the flip side of this, the Lakers will be motivated to at least keep it respectable and it's not really asking a lot for them to keep it within 17-points. Lakers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Pound the Lakers +17.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Heat/Pacers UNDER 190

Bottom Line: Miami and Indiana are both on the outside looking in at the playoffs, but both aren't far back. The Heat trail 8th place Boston by 1/2-game and the Pacers are just 1-game back of Miami. This is going to feel like a playoff game for both teams and I look for it to lead to a defensive showdown, as both of these teams are built to win games with their defense. UNDER is 12-1 in the Heat's last 13 games when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) and 11-3 in the Pacers last 14 home games with a total of 190 to 194.5. Pound the UNDER 190!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET*

The Bucks come in off a 95-91 home win over the Bulls as a 5-point dog, which might make them seem like a good bet as a 5.5-point road dog against the Celtics. I don't believe that's the case, as Milwaukee have lost 11 straight on the road. Keep in mind that Boston was a 7.5-point home favorite earlier this season against the Bucks and won that contest 108-100. Milwaukee is also just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 off an upset win at home as an underdog against a division opponent, while Boston is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after 2 or more consecutive wins. Pound the Celtics -5.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Suns +12.5

Bottom Line: Golden State is being way overvalued here due to the fact that they are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS (8 straight) in their last 10 games. The key thing to keep in mind is that the Warriors have locked up the No. 1 seed in the west and have a 5.5-game lead over Atlanta for the No. 1 overall seed. They are also coming off an emotional come-from-behind win at Los Angeles (Clippers), who they hadn't beat on the road since 2013. This is do or die for the Suns, who are 4-games back of OKC for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 off a loss by 10+ points, while Golden State is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when playing on 1 day of rest. Pound the Suns +12.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -2.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to fade the Clippers, who laid everything on the line in last night's home loss to the Warriors and now must turn around and play on the road against a red-hot Portland team that has won 4 straight. The big key here is that LA's starters racked up huge minutes last night and simply aren't going to have enough gas in the tank at this point in the season to play up to their potential on the road against a top level team like the Blazers. Portland is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against explosive offensive teams that average 103+ ppg and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after covering the number in 3 of their last 4. Pound the Blazers -2.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers/Nets UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Nets are currently 1/2 game ahead of the Pacers for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference. This is essentially a playoff game for these two teams and that should lead to max effort on the defensive end. Had it not been for these two teams combining for 134 points in a recent meeting on 3/21, this total would be a lot closer to 190 than 200. Prior to the offensive outburst in the last meeting, these two teams had combined for 199 or less in each of their previous 5 matchups. Pound the UNDER 199!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Raptors -1

Bottom Line: Houston is getting too much respect here against the Raptors. While the Rockets have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, they find themselves playing on no rest and their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Not to mention they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 visits to Toronto and 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after winning 2 or more consecutive games. Raptors head coach Casey is 35-19 ATS over last 54 when revenging a road loss of 10+ points. Pound Toronto -1!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +

Bottom Line: We are seeing a huge overreaction here that has the Grizzlies showing some big time value as a 8-point dog against their division rivals. Memphis is coming into this game off back-to-back blowout losses to the Cavs and Warriors. I look for them to come out extremely motivated here against San Antonio, who is overvalued right now. Spurs are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games against the Southwest, while Memphis is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Pound the Grizzlies +8!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs/Mavs OVER 206.5

Bottom Line: These two teams played in Dallas on Tuesday and combined for just 195 points with a total set at 207. The fact that the books have came right back with essentially the same number, lets us know they aren't concerned about the low-scoring game last time out. Spurs are averaging 107.4 ppg at home on the season and 118.0 ppg over their last 8 home games. Mavs have scored 100+ in 5 of their last 6. OVER is 20-8 in Spurs last 28 home games when listed as a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and 8-1 in their last 9 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. Pound the OVER 206.5!

5* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Hornets OVER 196.5

Bottom Line: Both of these teams are really struggling on the defensive end right now. Charlotte is giving up 98.0 ppg over their last 5, while the Nets are allowing a staggering 114.2 ppg over their last 5. On top of that, these two teams have a history of playing in high scoring games. Each of the last 4 has seen a combined score of more than 200 points. OVER is 4-1 in Nets last 5 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. OVER is also 6-0 in Hornets last 6 when playing on 1 days rest and 5-1 in their last 6 at home. Pound the OVER 196.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5

Bottom Line: I'm expecting Dallas to come out with one of their best efforts after a 92-98 loss at Phoenix, which head coach Rick Carlisle labeled and "embarrassment." Dallas has played the Spurs as well as anyone over the last couple of seasons and are too strong a team to be laying 3.5-points at home. Home underdogs off an upset loss as a favorite are 34-10 (77%) ATS since 1996 in a game involving two teams that have won between 60% and 75% of their games. Pound the Mavericks +3.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -6

Bottom Line: Chicago won't have any trouble getting motivated for this one, as they come in off a 16-point loss at Detroit in their last contest, plus will be playing with double-revenge, which includes a recent loss at Charlotte just 10 days ago. While it may appear the Hornets cruised to a 11-point win over the Timberwolves last night, they actually trailed by 5-points at the half. Not only will Charlotte be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days and 5th overall on their current road trip. Hornets are 12-29 ATS in their last 41 after playing 4 straight on the road, while Chicago is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Pound the Bulls -6!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -1.5

Bottom Line: The Hawks are showing some big time value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Spurs. Atlanta is also going to be extremely motivated in this spot after losing back-to-back games at Golden State and Oklahoma City. They will also be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 92-94 loss at San Antonio earlier this season. Atlanta models themselves after the Spurs and I believe this game is more important to them than some might think. Not to mention they are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 when playing against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 with a total set at 200 to 209.5 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when listed as a favorite of 6 points or less. Pound the Hawks -1.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls -3

Bottom Line: The Bulls won 108-92 at home over the Raptors last night for their second straight 20+ point win and I look for them to keep the momentum going with another easy win here against Detroit. The Pistons have completely fallen apart, going just 1-11 over their last 12 games and are expected to be without Greg Monroe. Road favorites (CHICAGO) - after 4 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average teams with a +/- 3 PPG differential are 27-8 (77%) ATS since 1996!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +7

Bottom Line: The Nuggets are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back here, but I believe we have seen an overreaction with the spread because of it. Denver has been playing much better since firing Brian Shaw and I look for them to come out and surprise the Heat, who are in line for a letdown after two big home wins over the Cavaliers and Trail Blazers. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100+ points. Miami is 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 following a SU win. Pound the Nuggets +7!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -4

Bottom Line: The Jazz are in a perfect spot to back off a disappointing home loss to the Wizards last night, which snapped their 6-game winning streak. Utah will not only be motivated to bounce back from that defeat, but they will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost the last meeting at home to the Lakers 97-100 back on Feb. 25. Utah is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 when revenging a loss where they allowed the opponent to score 100 points, 19-9 ATS in their last 28 after failing to cover the number in their last game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 revenging a same season loss. Pound the Jazz -4!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -3

Bottom Line: The Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA right now. Utah has won 6 straight and are 13-3 over their last 16 overall. Washington comes in having won 4 straight, but three of those wins came at home. They did beat the Hornets in their last road game, but prior to that had dropped 9 straight. Utah has won 3 straight and 7 of 8 at home against the Wizards and I look for them to add to that streak with any win and cover tonight. Teams who have led by 5 or more points at the half in each of their last 3 games (Utah) against an opponent that scored 60+ in the first half of their last game are 41-18 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Jazz -3!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks -5.5

Bottom Line: Oklahoma City has dropped 3 of their last 4 on the road with the only winning coming against the lowly Lakers. While Westbrook has done everything in his power to keep the Thunder competitive, I don't like their chances on the road against the Mavericks with Ibaka being downgraded to doubtful and Durant still sidelined. Dallas has a big advantage here playing on 2 days rest, while Oklahoma City will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Thunder are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a team with a winning home record, while Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win by more than 10 points. Pound the Mavericks -5.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bulls/Thunder UNDER 206.5

Bottom Line: Games played on Sunday have a stronger tendency to go UNDER the total, especially ones like we have here with an early start time. I'll take my chances on this one finishing well below the mark. While these two teams combined for 213 points back on March 5, that should actually benefit a lower scoring game. Adding to this is that the UNDER is 12-4 in the Bulls last 16 road games when listed as an underdog, 8-0 in Chicago's last 8 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 12-3 in the Thunder's last 15 home games off a home win by 10 or more points. Pound the UNDER 206.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -2.5

Bottom Line: Both these teams come in riding length losing streaks. The Pistons have dropped six straight, while the Lakers have lost 5 in a row. Detroit is more than capable of snapping out of this funk, while Los Angeles is an NBA-worst 4-21 since Jan. 11. The big problem for the Pistons has been their poor shooting from their guards, which is important to note, as the Lakers have had a horrible time slowing down opposing guards. Perfect spot for Detroit to right their ship, plus it's worth noting that they are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last constest and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Pound the Pistons -2.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +7.5

Bottom Line: These two teams faced off in Minnesota last Monday, with the Clippers escaping with a 110-105 win. Teams playing with revenge tend to have a bigger edge when that last meeting came within the last 10 days and I look for the Timberwolves to keep this one surprisingly close. The Clippers are still without two of their best players in Griffin and Crawford and Paul is dealing with a knee injury that figures to limit his production. Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against an opponent that allowed 100+ points in their last game, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs the Western Conference and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Pound the Timberwolves +7.5!

5* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -6

Bottom Line: Perfect spot to back the Thunder at home off back-to-back losses, especially against a Toronto team that is in the midst of a major funk. The Raptors have dropped 7 of their last 8 overall. OKC is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and teams that have gone over the total by 6 or more points in 5 straight games are 45-15 (75%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. Pound the Thunder -6!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets -2.5

Bottom Line: Value here is clearly with the Nets, who are being undervalued due to losing by 24-points at home in their last game. Brooklyn was in a major letdown spot after a big win over the Warriors and I look for them to come out extremely motivated and cash in an easy cover against a Phoenix team that has trailed by at least 15-points in each of their last 3 games. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs, who are averaging 102+ ppg against an opponent that is allowing 98-102 ppg are just 13-38 (25%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Nets -2.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks/Blazers UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The books have set the mark too high for this one. Portland isn't going to be looking to push the pace after laying everything they had on the line in last night's overtime win at Los Angeles and Dallas is not the same dynamic offense since acquiring Rondo. Not to mention the Mavericks will be without one of their top offensive weapons in Chandler Parsons and we can expect max effort defensively here in a nationally televised game on TNT. UNDER is 6-1 in the Mavs last 7 road games and 9-2-1 in their last 12 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 games played on Thursday and 5-1 in their last 6 playing on 0 days rest where the starting 5 accounted for more than 160 minutes. Pound the UNDER 199!

5* WISEGUY NBA *NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH* on Suns -4

Bottom Line: Phoenix is being way undervalued here due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout losses to the Spurs (74-101) and Heat (98-115). This is a perfect spot for them to bounce back against a Magic team that isn't any good and is playing with zero confidence off 3 straight losses. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 33-9 (79%) ATS since 1996! Pound the Suns -4!

5* MAJOR NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets/Hawks UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Rockets are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the league, averaging 103.3 ppg, but that's largely been due to the play of Harden, who is in the running for the league MVP. Harden won't be in action tonight and I believe it's created some great value here on the total. Atlanta is only giving up 95.1 ppg at home and offensively are averaging just 93.8 ppg over their last 5. UNDER is 5-0 in the Rockets last 5 after allowing 100 or more in their last game and 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 after a SU win. Pound the UNDER 199!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +6.5

Bottom Line: The Warriors are 7-3 SU and just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games, which goes to show the book are clearly inflating their lines. I believe that's the case again tonight, as Golden State should not be laying 6-points on the road in this spot. The Warriors are coming off a draining 106-101 win at Boston yesterday, which saw them rally from 26 down. Plus, Golden State is playing their 4th game in 5 days, which should have them lacking any sort of motivation or energy for this road game. Brooklyn has played much better since the break going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, plus are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 in the 2nd half against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. Pound the Nets +6!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +6.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are being undervalued here at home off a 96-102 road loss at New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. Brooklyn has quietly been playing much better of late and that's evident by their 7-4 ATS record over their last 11 games. This is a great spot to back the Nets, as Houston could be missing both Harden and Beverley (questionable) and are in a major lookahead spot with a nationally televised home games against the Cavs on deck. Pound the Nets +6.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets/Clippers OVER 214.5

Bottom Line: Whenever the Rockets match up against a team that likes to play at a fast pace, there's a good chance it will go over the total. In fact, the OVER is 24-13 in Houston's last 37 games against up-tempo teams who are averaging 83 or more shots per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 against an opponent that just allowed 100+ points and 6-1 in the Rockets last 7 after a SU win by more than 10 points. Pound the OVER 214.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Magic -8

Bottom Line: The 76ers got worse at the trade deadline, shipping away two of their best players in Carter-Williams and McDaniels. Philadelphia doesn't have the talent to keep up on the road, even against an average team like the Magic. Orlando has looked a lot better since making a change at head coach and I look for them to have no problem winning here by double-digits. Road underdogs who are averaging 16+ turnovers/game are just 133-204 (39%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Pound Orlando -8!

5* WISEGUY NBA *EASTERN CONF GAME OF THE MONTH* on Pelicans +1.5

Bottom Line: The Heat returned from the All-Star break with an impressive 111-87 road win over the Knicks, which might make it appear like Miami is a safe bet at home against a Pelicans team that has lost 4 straight, including a 84-95 loss at Orlando last night. However, the Heat are not nearly as good at home as they are on the road. Miami is 9-15 at home, compared to 14-15 on the road. New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing on no rest and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss. Pound the Pelicans +1.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *WESTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH*

Bottom Line: Each of the last 3 times these two teams have faced off in Dallas, they have combined for at least 220 points and I see no reason why that trend won't continue tonight. Both of these teams like to play at a fast pace and shouldn't have any problem pushing the pace given the long All-Star break. OVER is 15-4 in the Mavs last 19 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 road games after failing to cover the spread last time out. Pound the OVER 211!

5* WISEGUY NETS/BUCKS NBA *BEST BET*

Bottom Line: Brooklyn will be out to make a statement against their former coach and also motivated from an ugly 37-point loss at Washington on Saturday. The Nets also have revenge on their minds, as they blew a 8-point halftime lead in a 118-122 triple-overtime home loss to the Bucks. Brooklyn is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after trailing in their previous game by 15+ points at the half, while Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after a SU win. Pound the Nets +5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *GAME OF THE MONTH*

Bottom Line: The Hornets are getting way undervalued here due to losing yesterday to the 76ers. Charlotte has won 5 straight and 6 of 7 at home, including a 80-71 victory over these Pacers. Teams revenging a loss to an opponent off a road loss with a line of +3 to -3 are 144-288 (39%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Hornets +1!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6.5

Bottom Line: Denver has lost 4 straight and 11 of 12 overall, which I believe has them showing great value here as a 6.5-point dog against the Pistons. Detroit has lost 5 of 7 and are simply not the same team without Jennings in the lineup. Pistons have gone just 12-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. They are also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games played on Friday nights and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a same season loss. Pound the Pistons +6.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards -1.5

Bottom Line: Washington will be out for revenge after losing at home to the Hornets 88-92 on Monday. Revenge in the NBA is at it's strongest in the short-term and the Wizards are primed for a win after losing 4-straight. Home underdogs off 2 or more consecutive road wins are a mere 8-26 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pound Washington -1.5!

5* WISEGUY NBA NORTHWEST GAME OF THE MONTH on Trail Blazers -8

Bottom Line: This is a huge bounce back spot for Portland, who comes in having dropped 3 straight on the road. Utah on the other hand is primed for a letdown after knocking off Golden State at home 110-110 as a 10-point underdog. Underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 7-24 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons against an opponent that's off an upset loss as a favorite. Pound the Trail Blazers!

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET*

Bottom Line: The Raptors have won 6 straight in the series with all 3 of their home wins during this stretch by at least 10-points. That includes a 124-83 home win over the Bucks earlier this season back on Nov. 21. Toronto also comes in playing some of their basketball of the season, as they have won 6 straight. Raptors are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 against the NBA Central and 31-19 ATS over the last 2 seasons when the books set a total of 200 to 209.5. Additionally, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have a +3 to +7 ppg differential against an opponent with a +/- 3 ppg differential are 32-8 ATS since 1996 after 42+ games and after scoring 110 or more in 2 straight games. Pound Toronto!

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* (ESPN) on Suns -5

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for the Bulls, who are playing their 2nd road game in as many nights and 3rd in 4 days. To make matters worse, each of Chicago's last two games have gone to OT, and it played a double-OT game last night. I just don't see Chicago having enough left in the tank to keep this one within the number against a Phoenix squad that has been at home and is rested. The Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Suns are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 versus Eastern Conference opponents. Pound the Suns.

5* WISEGUY NBA LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK on Suns +3

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here, and the Clippers have been a terrible play as small road chalk. LA is 8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons and has lost these games by an average of 2.0 points. Playing against road teams when the line is +3 to -3 in the second half of their schedule following a game where they shot 55% or better, provided it is a matchup of teams that have held opponents to an average of 43.5-45.5% shooting on the season, has resulted in a 22-4 ATS mark since 1996. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, the Suns are 34-19 ATS as an underdog the last 2 seasons and 27-14 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Phoenix.

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Raptors/76ers OVER 194

Bottom Line: Toronto has had no trouble controlling the pace against poor teams. The Raptors are 12-3 OVER the last 2 seasons versus teams that have a win percentage of 25% or less. We have seen an average of 208.0 total points scored in these games. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams with 6 of the meetings totaling 199 points or more. We've seen an average of 207.6 total points scored in these 7 matchups. Pound the OVER.

5* WISEGUY NBA WESTERN CONF. GAME OF THE WEEK on T-Wolves +8.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Dallas following Monday's big win at Memphis. The Mavs have a matchup with Chicago on Friday and are very likely already peeking ahead to that one mentally. It will be hard for Dallas to get up for the lowly T-Wolves, but it won't be hard for Minnesota to get up for this one. It's finally home after a week on the road, and it will be out for revenge for a 131-117 November loss in Dallas. The Mavericks are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus Western Conference opponents. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus Western Conference foes. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +8.5

Bottom Line: Look for Denver to come storming back at home following last night's brutal 122-79 loss at Golden State. The Nuggets have been a strong play at home in recent seasons against good teams, going 25-12 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3.0 PPG or more. Denver has defeated these teams by an average of 3.4 points. The Spurs are off a dominant 89-69 win over Utah, but they are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. Pound Denver.

5* WISEGUY MLK DAY *BEST BET* on Knicks +7

Bottom Line: The Knicks have been awful, but I'm not hesitating to back them catching a good number in a favorable spot. The Pelicans are on a 10-22 ATS slide as a road favorite. They are off a big upset win in Toronto yesterday but are 0-7 ATS this season when checking in off an upset victory. They have lost these 7 by a whopping 16.3 points on average. New Orleans is also 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Additionally, home underdogs that are playing for the 3rd time or fewer in a 10-day span are 79-41 ATS since 1996 if they failed to cover the spread last game. Pound NY.

5* WISEGUY ESPN GAME OF THE MONTH on Thunder +2.5

Bottom Line: It's gut check time for the Thunder, and I expect them to respond. They have been really good at home where they are 4-0 in their last 4 and 9-2 in their last 11. 1 of the 2 losses came by 2 points and the other came in OT so based on this number, the Thunder are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games. Now that's a trend I'll gladly get behind. Golden State is 0-2 in its last 2 and 1-3 in its last 4 on the road. Also, since the Super Sonics moved to Oklahoma City and became the Thunder, they are 10-2 at home versus Golden State. Pound OKC.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST  BET* on Bulls -5.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bulls, who were defeated 102-86 at Washington last week. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS when out for revenge for a double-digit defeat since the start of last season. Additionally, playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a double-digit road loss has produced a 121-73 (62.4%) ATS record the last 19 years, provided both teams carry win percentages of 60-75%. Pound Chicago.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8

Bottom Line: The Jazz are being undervalued at home where they have been extremely competitive. They've won or lost by less than 8 points in 7 straight at home. The Warriors haven't played a road game since Christmas so they'll finally be outside their comfort zone. They've lost or won by less than 8 points in each of their last 5 on the road. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Bulls OVER 195

Bottom Line: Milwaukee has finished under the total in 9 straight, which has forced oddsmakers to overadjust the line due to the amount of action the under is getting in Milwaukee games. This provides us with an excellent overs opportunity tonight. Milwaukee's unders run has been directly correlated with how well it has defended, but this will be its 4th game in 5 days and defense is the first thing to go in fatigued spots. The over is 18-6 in the Bulls' last 24 home games, including 5-0 in their last 5 versus teams with a winning road record. The over is 14-4 the last 2 seasons in Milwaukee's games as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. We've seen 210.4 total points scored on average in these contests. Pound the over.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cavs +12.5

Bottom Line: The Cavs have struggled with LeBron James out nursing injuries, but there is still a ton of talent on the roster, and I expect them to show up against the best team in the NBA with the bright ESPN lights on. Playing against home teams that are outscoring opponents by 9.0 PPG or more on the season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more last game. Pound Cleveland.

5* WISEGUY NBA "Total" BLOWOUT on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 200

Bottom Line: These teams have come in under 200 points in each of the last 9 meetings so it's clear the books are begging for action on the under. However, they have good reason for posting such a high number as the Washington defense is really struggling (gave up over 52% shooting in each of its last 3 games) and it's up against a New Orleans team that is averaging over 108 ppg at home. Washington is 17-7 OVER the last 2 seasons in road games after finishing under the total in its last game. The OVER iis 10-4 in the Pelicans' last 14 home games and 11-4 in their last 15 versus the East.