Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -145

Bottom Line: Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 16 overall and 6 straight at home. I look for the Pirates to have no problem securing a win in their series opener at home against the Brewers. Pittsburgh will be starting veteran A.J. Burnett, who has a sensational 1.69 ERA over 4 home starts. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson has a 5.51 ERA over 6 road starts and a 6.48 ERA over his last 3 outings. Brewers are 5-17 in their last 22 after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less and Nelson is 3-11 in his last 14 starts after a loss. Pound the Pirates -145!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Twins -134

Bottom Line: Even with the Twins likely being forced to use several pitchers here with starter J.R. Graham likely only able to go 3-5 innings, I like Minnesota to win at home. Milwaukee's Matt Garza has an awful 7.07 ERA and 1.714 WHIP over 5 road starts and is 0-3 with a 11.66 ERA and 2.115 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Pound the Twins -134!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -117

Bottom Line: Pittsburgh is absolutely on fire right  now. The Pirates have won 3 straight and 11 of 13 overall. I'll take my chances on them adding another victory to their resume tonight, as they send out the red-hot Charlie Morton. In his 2 starts since joining the rotation, Morton has allowed just 3 earned runs over 14 innings of work. Pound the Pirates -117!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Indians -136

Bottom Line: Forget Kluber's two previous starts against the Royals. Kluber has figured it out and is pitching like the Cy Young winner from last year. He's allowed a whopping 2 runs over his last 3 starts with 37 strikeouts in just 25 innings of work. He's got a 1.41 ERA since May 13 and I look for the dominant stretch to continue. Kansas City is slumping right now. The Royals have dropped 6 of 7 and have scored 2 or fewer runs in each of those 6 defeats. On top of that, starter Jason Vargas has 5.16 ERA and 1.449 WHIP over 6 starts. Pound the Indians -136!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Braves -106

Bottom Line: This is simply too good a price to back the Braves with Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller is putting up elite numbers, yet is not getting the respect from the books like an elite starter. He's got a 1.48 ERA and 0.881 WHIP over 10 starts. Atlanta has won 8 of those 10 starts, including a 5-1 mark in his 6 road starts. Arizona's Josh Collmenter is 3-5 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.386 WHIP over his last 10 starts and will be facing an Atlanta offense that is hitting .313 as a team during their current 3-game winning streak. Pound the Braves!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Cubs -121

Bottom Line: Chicago's Jason Hammel is one of the more underrated starters right now. Hammel has a 2.98 ERA over 9 starts and has thrown 7+ innings in 5 of his last 6 outings. He's got a 2.05 ERA and 0.682 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Miami is starting Jose Urena, who will be making just his second career start. Urena was hit hard in his first outing, allowing 5 runs on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings of work. Pound the Cubs -121!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -112

Bottom Line: It's been a wise investment backing the Tigers in day games this season and even more so when they have their ace David Price on the mound. Detroit is 14-4 in day games so far in 2015 and 3-0 when Price gets the start. Cardinals are just 9-15 in their last 24 interleague home games and 2-10 in Lyon's last 12 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5, while Detroit is 19-5 after scoring 9+ runs in their previous game. Pound the Tigers -112!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -124

Bottom Line: St Louis is showing some solid value here as a small home favorite against the Reds. Cincinnati will have their ace Johnny Cueto on the mound, but he's just 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA over his last 9 starts at St Louis. Cardinals have scored 4 or more runs in 6 straight and I look for them to get to Cueto early and cruise to a win behind another strong effort out of Michael Wacha. Pound St Louis -124!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Rays +103

Bottom Line: Chris Archer has owned the Blue Jays in Toronto. Archer has a 1.84 ERA over his last 5 starts at the Rogers Centre. Not a huge surprise when you consider how good this kid has been on the road. Archer is 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA over his last 10 road starts. I'll gladly take my chances on the Rays given that Toronto will be sending out Aaron Sanchez for just his 2nd career start and he was less than impressive in his first outing of 2015, lasting just 3 1/3 innings. Pound the Rays +103!

5* WISEGUY MLB *BEST BET* on Blue Jays -105

Bottom Line: Toronto isn't going to be happy about yesterday's 3-4 loss to the Yankees, as they blew a 3-1 lead in the 8th. That's going to have the Blue Jays ticked off an 100% locked in on the finale. Most importantly, I believe they have a huge edge here in starting pitching with Daniel Norris getting the ball against the declining C.C. Sabathia. I look for Toronto's big bats to put up a big number here against Sabathia, while Norris keeps the Yankees' offense in check. Pound the Blue Jays -105!

5* Wiseguy World Series Game 7 *BEST BET* on Royals -134

Bottom Line: Home field in Game 7 of the World Series has been huge. Home teams are on a 9-0 run in Game 7 of the World Series. The Royals are 6-1 at home in the playoffs and 7-1 in their last 8 home games versus the Giants. Guthrie is in better form than Hudson. The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts while he's allowed only 4 earned runs in 30 1-3 innings. The Giants are 2-6 in Hudson's last 8 starts, during which he's given up 29 earned runs in 50 innings. Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy World Series Game 6 *BEST BET* on Royals -137

Bottom Line: I like the Royals at home in this do-or-die game because they have completely owned Peavy in this ballpark. The former Cy Young winner has looked anything but at Kauffman where his teams are 0-6 in his last 6 starts while being tagged for at least 4 runs in the last 4. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last 6 starts. They are also a perfect 6-0 in his starts in the 2nd half of this season versus teams that have a winning record. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite while the Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy World Series GM 4 *BEST BET* on Giants -124

Bottom Line: The Giants are down in the series, but they aren't about to hit the panic button with the next 2 at home. The Giants trailed 3-2 in the 2012 NLCS and went on to win the World Series. They are in great hands with Vogelsong, who has a 2.16 ERA in 6 career postseason starts. The Giants are 6-0 in these. He has a 0.00 ERA in 1 World Series start so I don't think this moment will be too big for him. Vargas hadn't made a postseason start prior to this year. He's pitched well in his first 2 postseason starts, but the stakes have been raised. Plus, the Giants got a look at him in August. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 playoff home games and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy 2014 World Series Game of the Year on Royals -111

Bottom Line: Peavy has a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts against the Royals - his worst among any team he's faced more than 6 times. He's been even worse at Kauffman Stadium, where he has a 6.42 ERA in 7 career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last 5 starts there. Butler and Escobar have especially had his number. Butler is 14 for 33 lifetime against the right-hander and Escobar is 9 for 22. It's also worth noting that Peavy has a 7.03 career ERA in the postseason. Ventura has one of the best fastballs in baseball and a nasty curve. Making matters worse for the Giants, they haven't seen it (Ventura will be making his first start against San Francisco). The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Pound Kansas City.

5* Wiseguy NLCS *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals -102

Bottom Line: The Giants can't be trusted with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Red Birds and has given up 11 runs in his last 3 starts against them spanning 18 2-3 innings. Vogelsong has also allowed 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts while Miller has limited foes to 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 8 outings. Miller has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 and 1 run or none in 4 of his last 6. The Cards are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and 2-0 in 2 career starts versus the Giants, during which he's given up only 2 runs in 12 1-3 innings. Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Angels -146

Bottom Line: I fully expect LA to bounce back at home where it is 41-18 in its last 59. The Royals are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 2-5 in their last 7 game 2's of a series and 2-7 in their last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 game 2's of a series. Ventura has had a great season for the Royals, but Shoemaker has been a little bit better. His 2.06 home ERA is over a run lower than Ventura's road mark. The Angels are 7-0 in Shoemaker's last 7 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts in the 2nd game of a series. Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Month on Red Sox -108

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Yankees following last night's Cinderella ending for Jeter. I just don't see New York being in this one mentally after that. With the postseason not a possibility, the Yanks would have rather ended the season after last night's win. Playing home teams that have been outscored by 0.5 runs per game or more on the season and are off 2 straight wins of 4 runs or more, has resulted in a 31-15 record the last 5 seasons. Pound Bean Town.

5* Wiseuy MLB *BEST BET* on Braves -117

Bottom Line: After watching Pittsburgh celebrate clinching a playoff spot on their field, I expect the Braves to show some fire tonight.  While the Pirates still have some things left to play, it's hard to bounce back mentally following such an emotional victory. Teheran has been dominant at home where he has posted a 2.04 ERA. That mark is far superior to the 3.74 mark Locke has posted on the road. The Braves are 9-3 in Teheran's last 12 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus National League Central clubs.  The Pirates are 2-5 in Locke's last 7 road starts, 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in Atlanta. The Braves are 2-0 in Teheran's 2 career starts versus Pittsburgh, during which he's posted a 2.77 ERA. The Pirates are 0-2 in Locke's last 2 starts versus the Braves, during which he's allowed 7 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Bet the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -161

Bottom Line: Look for Detroit to bounce back at home following Sunday's loss to the Royals.  The White Sox are an ugly 31-77 in their last 108 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The White Sox are also 10-27 in the last 37 meetings in Detroit.  The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 4-0 in their last 4 series openers and 4-0 in Lobstein's 4 career starts.  Detroit has seen Bassit, and it pounded him.  Lobstein is making his first start versus Chicago and should benefit from facing batters that aren't at all familiar with his stuff.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -144

Bottom Line: Seattle has plenty of incentive after pulling within 1 game of Oakland for the second wild card spot.  It has been fantastic on the road where it is 10-4 in its last 14 and 7-1 in its last 8 as a favorite.  Houston has been its home away from home.  The Mariners are 11-2 in their last 13 at Houston, including 5-0 in their last 5.  The Astros are an atrocious 60-149 in their last 209 games versus winning teams, including 29-70 in their last 99 home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 2-7 in Peacock's last 9 starts, and he's struggled against Seattle, posting a 5.95 ERA in 7 starts against the M's.  Walker is one of the best young arms in baseball and should benefit from flying to Houston Thursday to get extra rest before this outing. He's 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in 3 career starts versus the Astros with both wins coming in Houston.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* Blowout on Tigers -166

Bottom Line: The Twins are 0-5 in Gibson's last 5 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.  He's given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts.  He also has an ERA of 7.24 in 3 starts against Detroit this season.  Price has a 3.30 ERA and a 1.072 WHIP on the season, including a 2.73 road ERA and a 0.949 road WHIP.  His WHIP is significant because Minnesota is just 1-20 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  Price is 2-0 against the Twins this season, limiting them to 3 runs in 17 innings.  The Twins managed a win yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Year on Mariners +116

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Angels after becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot.  Seattle will play like the more desperate team as it trails Kansas City by 2 games for the 2nd wild card slot.  The Mariners also hold the edge on the mound with Elias, who has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last 9 starts.  Rasmus isn't a starter but will make his 4th straight start.  He hasn't made it past 3 1-3 innings in his first three starts.  Another early exit will place a lot of pressure on the pen, but don't be surprised if Scioscia gives him a longer leash in this one with it being a 4-game series and not wanting to tax his pen early in the series.  That bodes well for us.  The Mariners have dropped their last 2 versus the Angels but are 12-3 this season in road games when playing with double revenge.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Blue Jays -143

Bottom Line: Arrieta has posted a 7.15 ERA in his last four road outings, and I'm not hesitating to fade the Cubs with him on the hill here.  Chicago is 0-4 in its last 4 games, 0-4 in its last 4 games versus left-handed starters and 0-5 in its last 5 games when its opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter and 8-0 in Buehrle's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  He has a 2.42 ERA over his last 7 starts against the Cubs, and his clubs are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus Chicago.  Pound Toronto.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Angels -138

Bottom Line: The Angels fit into an awesome system that I'm going to ride today.  Road favorites of -125 or more that are seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite of -150 or higher has resulted in a 62-15 record the last 5 seasons, provided it is a team with a win percentage of 54-62%.  Teams fitting this system have won by 2.6 runs on average.  And, this system is 35-4 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 3-0 this season.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy AL West Game of the Year on A's -140

Bottom Line: Seattle's bullpen got a workout yesterday, and that wasn't ideal since Paxton is coming off a start in which he threw a career-high 118 pitches.  I don't expect him to be as sharp as he has been as a result, and I don't expect the pen to be able to pick him up.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Mariners.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 25 2-3 innings during his 4-start win streak over Seattle.  The A's are 38-14 in their last 52 home games and 73-34 in their last 107 games as a favorite.  Pound Oakland.

5* ESPN2 SNB *BEST BET* on Royals -156

Bottom Line: Look for the Royals to avoid being swept at home with Duffy on the hill.  The southpaw has been sensational, giving up 1 earned run or none in 9 of his last 12 starts.  The Royals are 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a favorite, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 division starts.  Cleveland's House has a 4.88 road ERA on the season, and I don't see that holding up here.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -138

Bottom Line: Greinke has owned the NL West.  He has a 1.79 ERA in 10 starts versus division opponents this season, and the Dodgers are 18-4 in his division starts over the last 2 seasons.  He's had his way with the Padres throughout his career.  In fact, his teams are 6-0 all-time in his starts versus San Diego, during which he's posted a 2.00 ERA.  Kennedy has a 4.35 ERA in 10 starts versus NL West foes this season.  He also has a 4.27 career ERA versus the Dodgers, and his teams are 1-6 in his last 7 starts against them.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -153

Bottom Line: The Reds have had Chicago's number, going 38-14 in the last 52 meetings.  Look for Cincinnati to continue its dominance over the Cubs behind a gem from Latos.  The Reds are 27-10 in Latos' last 37 home starts and 12-1 in his last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Latos' clubs are 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus the Cubs, during which he's posted a 1.88 ERA.  Chicago's Turner has a 6.03 ERA in 12 starts this season and was rocked in his most recent start against Cincinnati earlier this month.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Monday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Royals -133

Bottom Line: The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter.  They are also 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts while the Yankees are 0-3 in Pineda's last 3 starts.  Shields is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Yankees, holding them to 1 earned run in 13 innings.  This is a tough spot for New York because it is off an emotional extra-innings win and starts a 3-game series in Detroit tomorrow.  The Royals, who are a major-league best 24-7 since July 22, are back from a lengthy road trip and can settle in for 10 straight at home.  Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Angels +134

Bottom Line: The Halos are showing a ton of value at this price given Weaver's track record with the A's.  He has a 2.53 ERA in 28 starts against them.  The Angels are 10-3 in his last 13 starts in the series and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts.  LA is a perfect 11-0 in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons in Weaver's starts versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 0.5 runs per game or more.  LA has won these 11 by an average of 3.7 runs.  The Angels are also 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 starts in the 3rd game of a series.  Kazmir has an ERA of 4.66 in 5 career starts versus the Angels.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Dodgers -158

Bottom Line: The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 versus the Mets, including 5-0 in their last 5 at home in the series, and I expect them to continue their dominance behind Greinke.  The Dodgers are 20-6 in Greinke's last 26 home starts.  His clubs are 22-4 all-time in his home starts versus NL clubs with a batting averaging of .250 or lower.  Also, Greinke's clubs are 53-15 all-time in his starts as a favorite of -150 or higher.  Greinke has a 2.48 ERA at home while deGrom has a 3.69 road ERA.  Greinke has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts against the Mets spanning 12 innings.  deGrom walked away with a 4.50 ERA versus the Dodgers when he gave up 3 homers in a loss to them earlier this season.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month on A's -142

Bottom Line: Oakland holds the advantage with Lester going.  The southpaw has a 2.51 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP on the season.  His clubs are 10-1 in his last 11 starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Atlanta's Minor has a 5.33 ERA and a 1.576 WHIP on the season.  The Braves are 2-10 in Minor's last 12 interleague starts.  Oakland is now percentage points behind the Angels in a division it had led since April 23.  I expect that to provide some added motivation tonight.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Red Sox -162

Bottom Line: Boston's 4-game win streak came to an end with last night's extra-innings loss, but I like the Red Sox to bounce back strong.  Houston's Peacock has a 6.47 ERA on the road, a 10.53 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 14.75 ERA in a pair of starts versus Boston.  The Astros are 0-4 in his last 4 starts, 0-9 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days) and 0-2 in his starts versus Boston.  De La Rosa has quietly been really good, especially at home where he has a
1.97 ERA.  The Red Sox are 31-13 in their last 44 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Astros are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Boston.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Royals -139

Bottom Line: Kansas City's Duffy has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP on the season.  His ERA and WHIP are even lower on the road. His WHIP is extremely significant because the Twins are 0-17 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or better, and they have lost these contests by 3.8 runs on average.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Twins.  Expect to see some rust on Nolasco, who hasn't made a big-league start since July 6.  He has a 5.90 ERA on the season.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Year on Cardinals -161

Bottom Line: I love the Cardinals at home against the Padres tonight.  The Cards are 75-34 in the last 109 meetings, including 40-12 in the last 52 in St. Louis.  The Cards are also a perfect 14-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus NL teams that average 3.8 runs per game or less.  They have won these games by 4.6 runs on average.  The Cardinals are 43-15 in their last 58 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Stults can't be trusted on the road where he's 1-9 with a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts.  The Padres are 3-9 in Stults' last 12 starts and 7-20 in his last 27 road starts.  Lackey is 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 home starts, and his home ERA likely would be lower had he been pitching in the NL all season.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -161

Bottom Line: The Mariners hold a significant advantage on the rubber with Iwakuma, who has a 2.86 ERA on the season and a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts.  He's given up 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts.  Dickey has a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts and a 4.03 ERA in 12 road starts.  He's allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 10 starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts following a team loss in the previous game.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus winning clubs.  Playing favorites of -150 or more has resulted in an 89-22 record since 1997 if they are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or less over his last 10 starts and have a team batting average of .265 or less and are facing a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower.  This system is 11-3 on the season.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -140

Bottom Line: The Nationals are 8-0 in their last 8 at Citi Field, and they'll be hungry after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Atlanta cost them the series.  The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game while the Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Fister has been a machine of late with a 0.84 ERA over his last three starts.  He's gone five consecutive starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs.  The Nationals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 5 days' rest.  He's also 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Mets.  New York is recalling Montero here, and that's good news for the Nats.  The Mets are 0-4 in his 4 career starts while he's compiled a 5.40 ERA.  Pound the Nationals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -133

Bottom Line: The Indians evened the series behind their ace, but I don't see them taking the series with Carrasco making his first start since April.  The Indians are just 2-12 in their last 14 in the Bronx.  Carrasco has given up at least 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts, and the Tribe is 3-14 in his last 17 starts and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Carrasco is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus the Yanks, allowing 13 runs in 7 2-3 innings  The Yankees are 7-2 in Kuroda's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Kuroda has given up more than 3 earned runs only 3 times in his last 15 starts.  Kuroda hasn't allowed more than 5 hits or 3 runs in any of his 3 starts versus the Indians.  Pound the Yankees.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -157

Bottom Line: The Pirates, who are an NL-best 37-22 at home, are worth the price today.  They are 11-2 over their last 13 home games while the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 on the road, including 0-4 in their last 4 away games versus winning clubs.  Liriano has been lights out of late with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts since the All-Star break.  The Pirates are 15-5 in his last 20 home starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Stults has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season, and the Padres are 6-20 in his last 26 road starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -123

Bottom Line: Cincy is 8-1 in its last 9 games versus the Marlins.  It is also 19-6 in its last 25 home games versus the Fish.  Look for Cincy's dominance to continue behind Leake, who is 2-0 in his last 2 starts while allowing 1 run in 13 2-3 innings.  He's also 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 3 career starts versus Miami.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 5.82 ERA over his last 7 starts.  The Marlins are 3-9 in his last 12 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Cincy is 22-4 lifetime in Leake's home starts in the 2nd half of the season versus teams that strikeout 7 times per game or more.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -134

Bottom Line: Flynn has made 4 career starts for the Marlins.  They are 0-4 in those starts while he's compiled an 8.50 ERA and a .370 opponent average.  No matter what uniform Volquez has worn, he's own the Marlins.  His clubs are 6-0 in his 6 career starts against them while posting a tidy 1.95 ERA.  Additionally, the Pirates are 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 starts versus teams with a losing record.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy Interleague *BEST BET* on Angels -147

Bottom Line: AL clubs that average 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game and are starting a pitcher who averages 5.0 strikeouts per start or more are 54-18 since 1997 if they are matched up against an NL club that is starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Haren has a 4.76 ERA on the season and has really started to unravel, going 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 10.03.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: Having yesterday off should be just what the doctor ordered for St. Louis, which is 17-2 the last 2 seasons in home games following a day off.  And, the Cards will show no mercy to the team that defeated them in the World Series.  Boston is 2-10 in its last 12 games and doesn't figure to get much help from De La Rosa, who has a 6.04 ERA on the road.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in De La Rosa's last 4 road starts.  The Cards are 72-32 the last 3 seasons versus teams getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game, including 23-3 in home games played in the second half of the season during this span.  Lynn has a 2.98 ERA on the season, a 2.71 ERA at home and a 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Cobb is pitching great, but his 3.45 road ERA is over a run higher than the 2.30 home ERA Samardzija has posted.  Plus, the A's have already seen Cobb this season while the Rays have never faced Samardzija.  It will be mighty tough for Tampa to figure out a pitcher it's not familiar with, especially when that pitcher has posted a 0.82 WHIP while holding foes to a .203 avg. since coming over from the NL.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Samardzija's 4 starts as a favorite and 77-34 in their last 111 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Rays are 18-45 in their last 63 meetings in Oakland.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Orioles +103

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games and 0-4 in Iwakuma's last 4 starts versus the American League East.  Iwakuma has a 5.25 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Orioles, one of those being a 4-0 home loss last week.  The Orioles are 15-4 in Tillman's last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as an underdog.  Tillman is 5-0 lifetime with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 0.909 in 5 starts versus the Mariners.  The Mariners are 6-14 in the last 20 meetings and 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore.  Pound the O's.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on White Sox -119

Bottom Line: Here, we have a pair of teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm getting behind the one on the upswing at a very reasonable price.  The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 games.  They are even 1-7 in their last eight versus teams that have a sub .500 record and 0-4 in their last 4 in the second game of a series.  The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 and 4-1 in their last 5 versus Minnesota.  The Twins won at home when Pino and Carroll dueled Sunday, but Carroll gave up just 1 run and has been trending in the right direction with a 2.38 ERA over his last 4 outings.  He gave up 1 or no runs in 3 of those.  Playing against all AL teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that average 4.2 runs per game or fewer and allowed 10 runs or more last game has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, AL home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that have a team batting averaging of .265 or worse but are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 34-14 since 1997, including a perfect 3-0 the last 3 seasons.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals -144

Bottom Line: KC's Duffy has been dealing all season, as evidenced by his 2.47 ERA.  He's been almost unhittable lately with a 1.93 ERA over his last 6 outings and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3.  He has a 2.13 ERA in 6 career appearances versus Minnesota.  Hughes has a 4.10 ERA on the season, a 6.31 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3.  He also has a 5.89 ERA in 9 career starts versus KC.  The Twins are 5-21 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better.  Twins are 1-4 in Hughes' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 45-21 in their last 66 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 25-12 in their last 37 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  KC is 10-4 in its last 14 home games versus Minnesota.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -148

Bottom Line: The Braves are 0-10 the last 2 seasons in road games when facing an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  They have lost these contests 3.6 runs on average.  Additionally, playing against underdogs of +125 to +175 that have a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower on the season but are batting .250 or worse as a team has resulted in a 97-39 record since 1997 if they are facing an NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  Plus, this is a tough situational spot for the Braves, which made the long trip from Atlanta to LA following yesterday's game.  The Dodgers should benefit from having been at home yesterday and having the day off.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cubs -142

Bottom Line: The Rockies are 15-37 in their last 52 overall and 25-56 in their last 81 on the road, including 1-12 in their last 13 and 0-6 in their last 6.  They are 16-41 in their last 57 road games versus a left-handed starter, 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games, 5-17 in their last 22 series openers and 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Chicago.  Colorado is also 0-4 in Flande's 4 career starts, during which he's posted a 7.20 ERA.  The Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 series openers and have the more promising starter on the hill with Wada.  Flande was 2-10 with an ERA of 5.00 in triple-A this season before getting the call up.  Wada was 10-6 with a 2.77 ERA in triple-A before getting his call.  You want to play against National League July road dogs of +125 to +175 that give up 4.8 runs per game or more on the season as doing so has produced a 43-7 record the last 5 seasons, an 11-1 record the last 3 seasons and a 3-0 record this season.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Phillies -140

Bottom Line: Lee was rocked in his first start back, but he almost always follows a poor outing with a strong one.  He has every incentive to pitch well here in an audition spot prior to the trade deadline.  He has a 2.83 home ERA on the season while Collmenter has a 5.17 road ERA.  Lee has a 3.12 ERA in 7 starts versus the D-backs, and the Phillies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against them.  Lee's clubs are 4-0 lifetime in his home starts versus the Snakes.  The D-backs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage less than .400 and 3-14 in their last 17 in Philadelphia.  Pound the Phillies.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Week on Yankees -125

Bottom Line: Toronto shut out Boston yesterday, but it is 0-9 under manager Gibbons following a win over a division opponent where it allowed one run or none.  It has lost by an average of 3.3 runs in this situation.  The Yankees are 16-0 in their last 16 at home versus Toronto, and they have owned Buehrle, whose clubs are 0-9 in his last nine road starts versus the Yankees.  Kuroda has had much better luck versus the Blue Jays, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 career home starts against them, including 2 wins over Buehrle.  Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -132

Bottom Line: The Mariners are showing a lot of value at this price given the edge they hold on the mound with Iwakuma.  The right-hander has been rock solid at home (2.81 ERA) and enters in top form (1.59 ERA L3 starts).  The same can't be said about Baltimore's Chen, who has a 4.68 ERA on the road and a 4.32 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Chen is also 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in 4 starts versus Seattle.  Chen hasn't pitched well enough to have 10 wins.  He's benefited from the league's highest run support average (6.36).  Unfortunately for him, the Orioles are batting a big league-worst .205 since July 9 and .167 in their past four games.  I don't see the O's getting enough off Iwakuma to get the win tonight.  AL favorites of -110 or higher are 57-15 the last 5 seasons when starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower against an opponent that is starting a pitcher with a win percentage higher than 70.0 percent.  Pound the M's.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Angels -162

Bottom Line: Tillman is 6-0 on the road, but his 4.69 ERA away from home is a big concern.  An LA club that leads the majors with 5.0 runs per game should be able to get to him.  Baltimore has been able to provide Tillman with run support on the road, but it will have a tough time getting much off Weaver.  The Angels are 6-0 in his last 6 starts, during which he's posted a 2.78 ERA.  He has a 2.26 ERA in his last 10 home starts.  The Angels are 89-36 lifetime in Weaver's home starts, including 39-12 in his last 51.  The Halos are also 27-6 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, including 20-4 at home in this price range.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -125

Bottom Line: The Tigers have cashed 5* Wiseguy tickets for us the past two days, and I'll continue to ride them at a very reasonable price against an inferior opponent.  Detroit is 12-3 in its last 15 road games, 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 road starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Tigers have been playing exceptional defense, and this is significant because they are 7-0 this season in road games after a stretch of 15 consecutive games with one error or less.  The Diamondbacks are an ultra soft 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Tigers are showing a ton of value at this price on the road (11-3 L14 road games), in interleague play (54-25 L79 interleague games versus losing teams) and versus a lefty starter (batting .289 vs. lefty starters this season, 27-11 L38 games versus lefty starters).  Even more importantly, they have Verlander on the bump.  While Big V has been average this season, his track record of success versus the NL can't be ignored. He's an unbeaten 12-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 14 regular-season interleague starts since June of 2010.  Look for Verlander to outduel Nuno, who is 0-3 in his last 3, 1-5 in his last 6 and 3-9 in his last 12 on the money line.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last 6 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 4 of a series and 2-7 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Indians are 4-13 in their last 17 road games versus a left-handed starter and 16-35 in their last 51 in Detroit.  The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following defeat in the first 3 games of a series and 11-5 in their last 16 game 4's of a series.  Cleveland hasn't swept a series in Detroit since Aug 25-27, 2008, and it has never recorded a 4-game sweep there.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Marlins +107

Bottom Line: The Marlins are showing tremendous value in the home dog role with Alvarez on the rubber.  They are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus winning teams, 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game 2 of a series and 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Alvarez has a 1.19 ERA in his last eight home starts and his 1.56 season ERA at home ranks second in the majors.  San Francisco's Tim Hudson has gone 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his last 5 starts with the Giants losing 4 of those.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -140

Bottom Line: The Indians can't be trusted on the road, where they are 16-36 in their last 52 versus clubs with winning home records, especially with Bauer on the hill.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA in five road starts with the Indians losing four of those.  The Tribe has also dropped six of its last seven series openers.  Cleveland is 3-13 this season in road games versus AL clubs starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 or lower.  Sanchez certainly fits into that category with a 3.04 ERA on the season.  He also has a 2.34 ERA in 8 career starts versus the Indians.  The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 series openers, 7-1 in their last 8 division games, 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 starts, 10-4 in his last 14 division starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus Cleveland.  The Indians are 15-37 in the last 52 meetings in Detroit.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Oakland is 9-2 over the last 3 seasons following 2 straight road losses to a division opponent.  It is 21-8 over the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for 2 straight losses in which it was held to 2 runs or less.  Seattle is 8-24 over the last 2 seasons after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 straight games.  The A's are on a 7-2 run in the third game of the series, are 52-19 in their last 71 as a favorite and are 40-15 in their last 55 Sunday contests.  They are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 Sunday starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The A's are also 8-1 in his last 9 division starts and 6-1 in his last 7 as a road favorite.  Gray is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Seattle while giving up only 2 earned runs in 18 innings.  Pound Oakland in this double revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy MLB Line Mistake of the Month on Phillies +120

Bottom Line: The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, and I like them to keep right on rolling behind Hamels, who has a 2.87 ERA on the season.  He's a stellar 15-6 with an ERA of 2.58 in 28 career starts versus Washington.  The Phillies are 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus the Nats, including 3-0 in his last 3.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Nats.  Strasburg has a 5.13 ERA in 8 road starts this season.  That's not an aberration, it's a trend.  The Nationals are 1-4 in Strasburg's last 5 road starts and 18-39 in the last 57 meetings in Philadelphia.  Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Year on Rays -130

Bottom Line: The Blue Jays have been really struggling since early June, and I expect their struggles to continue versus a Tampa Bay club that is rounding into shape.  The Rays lost last time out but are 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss, 9-3 in their last 12 and 5-0 in their last 5 division contests.  They are also 4-0 in their last 4 versus lefty starters.  Buehrle got out of the gate strong but has cooled off.  The Jays are 1-5 in his last 6 starts, including 0-3 on the road during this stretch.  They are also 0-4 in his last 4 starts when he gets the ball following a team loss.  The Blue Jays are 1-8 in their last 9 road games, 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-6 in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Archer has quietly been sizzlin' since mid-May, holding the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts.  The Rays are 9-3 in Archer's last 12 starts as a home favorite.  He's 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in 5 starts versus the Blue Jays.  Buehrle, on the other hand, has given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts versus Tampa Bay.  The Blue Jays are 16-45 in the last 61 meetings in Tampa Bay.  Pound the Rays.

5* Wiseguy NL Central Game of the Month on Pirates +105

Bottom Line: Look for Pittsburgh to avoid being swept behind a gem from Volquez, who is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts.  He's given up just 1 run in his last 2 starts in 13 innings of work, and this is a very positive sign.  His teams are 13-3 lifetime in his starts when he's given up 1 or no earned runs in his last 2 outings.  The Cardinals are 0-4 in Miller's last 4 starts while he's posted a 7.32 ERA.  Pound Pittsburgh.

5* Wiseguy Battle of the Bay *BEST BET* on Giants +110

Bottom Line: The A's are 0-3 in their last 3 road games and 1-5 in their last 6 road games versus winning clubs.  They are 17-41 in their last 58 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and 2-12 in the last 14 meetings in San Francisco (86% trend in favor of the Giants).  The Giants are 37-16 in their last 53 interleague home games, 26-8 in their last 34 interleague home games versus a right-handed starter and 7-3 in their last 10 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Hammel is making his first start since coming over from the Cubs and hasn't pitched in this ballpark since 2011.  Cain has given up 1 earned run or none in each of his last 5 starts versus the A's.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -110

Bottom Line: Verlander is starting to come around with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts, including a win over the A's - arguably the best team in baseball - in his most recent start.  Verlander has been a gold mine in interleague play. He's 22-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 29 career starts versus the NL, including an 11-0 mark with a 1.78 ERA in his last 13.  He's an unbeaten 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 14 career interleague home starts.  Ryu is just 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA in six career interleague starts.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -173

Bottom Line: Books are begging for underdog money with this line, but Washington is this large of a favorite for a reason.  Baltimore's Tillman has a 6.00 ERA in 8 interleague starts, including a 6.52 ERA in a pair of starts versus Washington.  He also has an ugly 5.53 ERA on the road.  Strasburg has been brilliant at home where he has a 2.35 ERA on the season.  He's 1-0 with an ERA of 1.80 in his lone start versus Baltimore.  The Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record while the Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Nats are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite, 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts versus the American League East, 7-2 in his last 9 home starts and 5-2 in his last 7 interleague starts.  Pound the Nationals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: The Cards are showing a lot of value as a medium-priced favorite against a club that is just 27-62 in its last 89 road games versus winning teams.  The Marlins are on a 0-7 skid versus winning ball clubs.  The Cards are 77-33 in home games versus losing teams under manager Matheny.  They are also 22-4 in July home games under Matheny and 90-38 in home games versus NL clubs with a batting avg. of .255 or worse under his watch.  Eovaldi has an ERA of 6.00 over his last 4 starts, and I expect the struggles to continue after throwing a season-high 113 pitches last time out.  Lynn took it on the chin in his last start, but that was an aberration.  He had posted a 0.82 ERA in his previous 3 outings.  The Marlins are on a 0-5 slide in St. Louis.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Year on Red Sox -165

Bottom Line: The Cubs took Game 1, but I'm confident they won't get Game 2.  The Cubs are 18-44 in their last 62 games following a win, including 1-11 this season in road games following a win.  Edwin Jackson has a 6.70 ERA on the road and a 5.59 career ERA versus Boston.  The Cubs are 6-20 in Jackson's last 26 starts.  And, Jackson's clubs are 0-6 lifetime in his starts at Fenway.  He has a 7.84 ERA ERA in these six starts.  The Red Sox are 13-4 under manager Farrell when out for revenge for a shutout loss to an opponent.  They've won 10 of their last 13 at home and are 80-32 in their last 112 interleague home games.  Buchholz looked great from the 3rd inning on in his first start since spending a month on the DL.  He should enter this one with renewed confidence and should benefit from facing hitters that aren't familiar with his stuff.  The Red Sox are 7-1 in Buchholz's last 8 interleague starts.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -117

Bottom Line: I'll back the red-hot Reds against a San Diego club that is last in the majors in batting average (.212) and scoring averaging (3.0).  The Padres are batting only .130 over their last four games.  They'll have trouble generating offense against the former Padre Latos, who has a 2.99 ERA in 33 starts at Petco.  The Reds are 41-20 in Latos' last 61 starts, 34-16 in his last 50 starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 Monday starts.  The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 versus the National League West and 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.  Hahn has performed well for the Padres, but he's yet to face a lineup as potent as the one he'll see tonight.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Giants -112

Bottom Line: The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.  This trend should be extended given the edge they have on the mound with Hudson.  The veteran right-hander has a 2.61 ERA in 14 starts this season, and this number drops to 2.59 at home.  Cincy's Bailey has a 4.80 ERA on the season that rises to 5.47 on the road.  The Giants are 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days).  His clubs are a perfect 14-0 the last 2 seasons in his home starts when the total is 7 to 8.5.  His teams are 9-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus teams with a winning percentage of 51-54%.  The Reds are 4-12 in Bailey's last 16 starts as an underdog and 3-9 in his last 12 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -139

Bottom Line: I'll gladly hop on Greinke at home at this price.  His clubs are 29-8 in his home starts over the last 3 seasons.  St. Louis has a low .311 on-base %, which dips to .304 on the road.  This bodes well for us as Greinke's clubs are 20-3 all-time in his home starts versus NL teams with an on-base % of .315 or worse.  He is also 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus St. Louis.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Braves -134

Bottom Line: Following yesterday's loss to Houston and 3 consecutive home losses to the Phillies last week, the Braves will be hungry.  They also catch Philadelphia at the perfect time.  The Phillies played a 14-inning game yesterday that taxed their bullpen.  Philly is 1-10 in home games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons.  Plus, the Braves put the better starter on the mound with Teheran, who has given up just 1 run in 17 innings against the Phillies this season.  The Braves are 14-4 in Teheran's last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record, 7-1 in his last 8 road starts versus losing clubs, 9-2 in his last 11 division starts, 6-0 in his last 6 Friday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Phillies are 5-13 in Kendrick's last 18 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Giants -114

Bottom Line: Yesterday's 4-0 win over San Diego gives the Giants some much-needed confidence and momentum heading into this series.  The Giants are an amazing 73-36 in home games after shutting out an opponent since 1997.  Vogelsong has been at his best at home where he has a 3.33 ERA.  The Giants are 8-3 in his last 11 starts and 14-6 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are also 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts versus the Reds, and he's held them to 2 runs or less in each of his last 3 starts against them.  Leake has given up 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Reds are 4-8 in his last 12 starts.  He's lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Giants, given up 5 runs in each of the defeats.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -117

Bottom Line: Great price to back the Reds, who are 30-12 versus the Cubs the last 3 seasons, including 20-5 at Wrigley during this span. The Cubs won yesterday but have had trouble stringing together victories.  They are 33-64 the last 2 seasons after a win, including 9-25 during this stretch if the win came by 4 runs or more.  I don't trust Chicago's Edwin Jackson.  The Cubs have lost 10 of his 15 starts this season while he's compiled a 5.12 ERA.  They are 7-19 in his last 26 starts, 5-16 in his last 21 starts as an underdog and 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  He has a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds have already seen Jackson twice this year, and that's to their advantage now that they're in rhythm.  The Cubs haven't seen Latos since last season, and they don't want to see him (1.98 ERA in his L6 starts against them).  Bet the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -105

Bottom Line: The Cardinals 8-0 victory over the Rockies Monday handed Colorado a 7th straight defeat.  However, the Cards are just 4-13 the last 2 seasons following a win of 8 runs or more.  I fully expect the Rockies to get back in the win column tonight.  They are 16-4 in De La Rosa's home starts the last 2 seasons, and this mark tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they're up against a team with a winning record.  Additionally, Colorado is a jaw-dropping 18-2 the last 2 seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss.  Pound the Rocks.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Rangers -119

Bottom Line: The Rangers have the clear advantage with Darvish getting the ball.  His 2.39 ERA through 13 starts is over a run lower than the ERA Shoemaker has posted through 6 starts.  The Rangers are 6-0 in Darvish's last 6 starts as a road favorite, 9-0 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days), 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts.  The Rangers are also 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts versus the Angels and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts against them.  Pound Texas.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* Blowout on Royals -168

Bottom Line: Royals have the bats going and should have no problem getting to Young (5.18 road ERA).  Vargas is in a groove, coming off 5 consecutive strong efforts.  Plus, he's 3-0 over his last 3 starts versus the Mariners and has given up a total of only 3 runs in those starts.  The M's are a soft 50-105 in their last 155 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Royals are 10-2 in their last 12, 5-1 in their last 6 as a favorite and 6-0 in their last 6 in the 2nd game of a series.  Playing against American League road dogs of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better has resulted in an 80-16 (83%) record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an AL opponent whose starting pitcher has a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MLB Game of the Week on Cardinals -160

Bottom Line: The Cardinals lost the series opener, but they are an impressive 71-35 following a loss over the last 2 seasons.  They are also a dominant 22-5 in home games versus NL East foes during this span.  Burnett is a lousy 12-35 lifetime against the money line as a road dog of +125 to +175.  The Phillies have won their last 4, but Burnett has been a cooler, going 0-6 the last 2 seasons when taking the mound following 3 or more consecutive team wins.  It's been ugly for Burnett at Busch Stadium where he's given up at least 5 earned runs in 3 straight starts.  Garcia has a neat 2.86 ERA in 7 starts versus the Phillies, which comes as no surprise considering how rough left-handed starters have been on them.  Philadelphia is sticking just .225 versus southpaw starters this season. The Cardinals are 62-25 in their last 87 home games versus a right-handed starter and 44-18 in their last 62 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -150

Bottom Line: The Rays are 61-29 in their last 90 home games versus a team with a losing record while the Astros are 24-60 in their last 84 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Archer has been a force at home, and the Rays are 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Tampa Bay's record isn't as good as Houston's, but the Rays are the better club.  We saw that recently when the Rays took 2 of 3 in Houston.  The Astros are 18-45 in their last 63 versus American League East foes and 3-12 in their last 15 versus the Rays.  Pound Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -126

Bottom Line: Felix Hernandez is having a special season, and I don't see the struggling Padres having an answer.  They are batting .214 on the season and have managed just 1 run in each of their last 3 games.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer 8 times during a 1-8 stretch.  They'll have a tough time getting anything off Hernandez, who has a 2.14 ERA on the season and a 1.21 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Mariners are 6-0 lifetime in his starts at pitcher-friendly Petco where he has a 1.54 ERA.  The Mariners are also 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 road starts, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games, 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter.  Andrew Cashner will have a tougher time slowing down a Seattle lineup that has been at its best on the road where it is averaging 4.7 runs while batting .258.  Cashner has a solid 3.29 ERA over his last 7 starts but is winless during this stretch as his light hitting club hasn't provided him with much support.  He was easily outdueled by Hernandez in San Diego last May.  The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy AL *BEST BET* on A's -165

Bottom Line: The Rangers have been a bad investment on the road in this price range going 65-134 in their last 199 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The A's, on the other hand, are 82-38 in their last 120 games as a home favorite of any price.  Texas scheduled starter Colby Lewis has an ERA of 6.02 at night and a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Oakland's Drew Pomeranz has a 1.65 ERA at night and a 1.88 ERA in all starts.  The A's are 3-0 this season in Pomeranz's home starts.  The Rangers are 0-3 in Lewis' last 3 starts in Oakland.  The A's have seen Lewis a lot over the years, but the Rangers don't have much familiarity with Pomeranz.  Advantage Pomeranz.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Tigers -180

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Tigers are worth the price here.  They were upset yesterday but are 18-3 the last 2 seasons following a loss to a division foe as a favorite of -150 or higher.  They have bounced back to win by an average score of 5.7 to 2.7 in these games.  Additionally, home favorites of -150 or higher that are out for revenge for a loss as a home fave of -150 or higher are 45-7 since 1997 if they have a win percentage of 51-54% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 46% to less than 50%.  This system is a perfect 12-0 the last 5 seasons.  Detroit has a huge advantage on the pitcher's mound with Sanchez, who has a 2.24 ERA on the season and a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Deduno has a 5.25 ERA on the season and a 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Deduno also has a 6.83 ERA in 5 starts versus the Tigers while Sanchez has a 2.42 ERA in 8 starts versus the Twins.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NL *BEST BET* on Marlins -116

Bottom Line: Miami is crushing the ball at home this season, batting .279 and averaging 5.1 runs per game.  It's also crushing southpaw starters, batting .296 and scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game off them.  Going back to last season, the Marlins are 26-11 in their last 37 home games and 13-4 in their last 17 games versus a left-handed starter.  Pittsburgh's Locke has struggled, and the Bucs are only 2-8 in his last 10 starts. He's also struggled against the Marlins, who are batting .338 in the 3 games he's started against them.  Pittsburgh is just 7-15 in its last 22 games as a road underdog, and it is batting only .232 and averaging 3.4 runs per game on the road this season.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 2.49 ERA at home, and his teams are 7-2 in his last 9 home starts.  Pound the Marlins.

5* Wiseguy NL Non-division GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants -125

Bottom Line: The Giants have dropped the first 2 games of this 4-game set, but they are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games and 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 in a series.  Washington has been a terrible underdog investment in this price range at 15-39 in its last 54 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Cain has had Washington's number in San Francisco.  The Giants are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Nats, during which he's posted a 1.66 ERA.  Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -122

Bottom Line: Porcello has dominated the White Sox.  The Tigers are 12-1 in his last 13 starts against them, including 6-0 in the last 6.  He allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of these 13 starts.  The Tigers are also 6-0 in Porcello's last 6 starts as a road favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Noesi is 3-16 with a 5.57 ERA in 28 career starts and has an ERA of 8.30 in 2 starts versus the Tigers.  The Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -138

Bottom Line: The Phillies snapped a 6-game skid yesterday, but I'm not hesitating to fade them here as they are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  The Reds hold the advantage on the pitcher's mound with Simon, whose home ERA is 1.64 runs lower than Hernandez's road mark.  The Reds are 6-0 in Simon's last 6 starts versus teams with a losing record and 8-0 in his last 8 starts versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower.  Cincy hasn't swung the bat well during its 3-game slide.  However, first half of the season home favorites of -110 or higher that have a batting average of .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 76-37 the last 5 seasons.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Braves -110

Bottom Line: The Braves are a steal at this price considering the advantage they have on the mound with Teheran (1.83 on the season, 0.81 ERA L3 starts).  The Braves are 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 road starts versus a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 Friday starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts in game 1 of a series.  Arizona's McCarthy is having a disaster of a season (5.20 ERA on the season, 5.82 ERA L3 starts).  The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in McCarthy's last 8 home starts, 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record,  0-4 in his last 4 Friday starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus National League East foes.  The Diamondbacks are 10-25 in their last 35 home games and 4-12 in their last 16 versus the Braves.  Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -123

Bottom Line: Colorado's skid ends tonight with Nicasio on the hill.  The Rockies are 5-1 this season in his home starts, during which he has posted a 3.60 ERA.  Nicasio is a big-time competitor, and the Rockies are 7-1 the last 8 times he's gotten the start following a team loss. 3 of the last 4 times Arroyo has gotten the start at Coors Field, the result hasn't been good.  He's given up 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts there.  Nicasio, meanwhile, has held the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 home starts against them.  The Rockies are 19-6 lifetime under manager Weiss in home games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent.  Pound the Rockies.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -133

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I expect this trend to continue with Wainwright toeing the rubber.  He's been at his best on the road where he has a 1.59 ERA in 7 starts.  He's also 4-0 with a 3.10 ERA lifetime in Kansas City.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games versus a right-handed starter.  Wainwright should have no problem outdueling Vargas, who has a 5.26 ERA at home. The Cards are 7-0 in their last 7 at Kauffman Stadium while batting .317 and averaging 7.4 runs.  The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves -153

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 versus the Braves, and I expect their struggles in the series to continue with Erasmo Ramirez on the mound.  The Mariners are 1-10 in Ramirez's last 11 starts, including 0-5 in his last 5.  They are 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-9 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 85-40 in their last 125 home games and 39-12 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Scheduled starter Gavin Floyd has a 2.37 ERA on the season, a mark far superior to the 6.00 ERA Ramirez has posted. Additionally, Seattle is batting just .233 versus right-handed starters while Atlanta is batting .260 versus left-handed starters. Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Indians +108

Bottom Line: Boston has come storming back following a lengthy skid, but I have its 7-game win streak coming to an end tonight.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 home games and 39-14 in their last 53 home games versus clubs that have a losing record.  The Indians are also 8-2 in Masterson's last 10 home starts versus losing clubs, and they are 12-1 the last 2 seasons when he gets the ball following 2 or more consecutive teams wins.  The Red Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a favorite, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing mark and 0-6 in Lackey's last 6 road starts versus a losing club.  Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Year on Dodgers -167

Bottom Line: The Dodgers busted out the bats in a big way Saturday and now enter this Sunday night contest full of confidence and momentum.  They also have a huge edge on the mound with Greinke, who has a 2.18 ERA on the season and a 1.74 ERA over his last 3 starts. Greinke's clubs are 24-4 the last 3 seasons in his starts as a favorite of -150 or more.  The Dodgers are 10-1 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 17-3 in his last 20 home starts.  The Pirates have really struggled at the plate.  Their .313 on-base percentage is horrid, and the number dips to .292 on the road.  Teams that struggle to get on base have had little luck against Greinke.  His clubs are 20-2 lifetime at home versus NL teams with an on-base percentage .315 or worse.  Volquez has a 5.40 ERA on the road, and his clubs are 0-8 in his last 8 road starts.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Brewers -155

Bottom Line: I'm not shying away from the Brewers at this price against a Chicago club they have dominated.  The Brewers are an amazing 59-16 in their last 75 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  They are also 24-6 in their last 30 versus the Cubs at Miller Park.  Estrada has had Chicago's number, especially at home where the Brewers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 37-81 in their last 118 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-25 in Wood's last 33 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Pound the Brew Crew.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -125

Bottom Line: The Yankees can't be trusted on the road with Kuroda on the mound.  They are 1-9 in his last 10 road starts.  The Cardinals are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 home games and 10-1 in Miller's last 11 starts as a favorite.  Miller has been lights out at home where he has a 2.19 ERA this season.  St. Louis is batting .269 at home while the Yankees are hitting .246 on the highway.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mets -118

Bottom Line: Wheeler outdueled Collmenter in Arizona earlier this season, and I expect him to do it again.  The Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 games versus teams that have won less than 40% of their games and 6-2 in Wheeler's last 8 starts versus team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 3-10 in Collmenter's last 13 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus teams with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.  Bet the Mets.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Month on Braves -125

Bottom Line: The Rockies aren't the same team away from home.  They are 1-5 in their last 6 road games, 2-10 in their last 12 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, 16-35 in their last 51 games as a road underdog and 21-44 in their last 65 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 83-37 in their last 120 home games.  They are even 11-1 the last 3 seasons versus NL clubs like Colorado that average 5.3 runs per game or more.  They are 8-1 the last 2 seasons versus NL clubs like the Rockies that have a team batting average of .275 or better.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 versus the Rockies, including 4-0 in their last 4.  They are 38-14 in their last 52 home games versus the Rocks, including 6-0 in their last 6.  Lyles has a 5.19 ERA over his last 3 starts while Floyd has a 2.41 ERA in 3 starts this season.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -140

Bottom Line: The Mets have been a horrible home underdog.  They are 19-57 in their last 76 games as a home underdog and 12-42 in their last 54 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  They are 1-6 in their last 7 overall, 1-10 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter and 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter.  I expect their struggles to continue against Greinke, who hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in 21 consecutive starts.  The Dodgers are 24-7 in Greinke's last 31 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games versus a left-handed starter, and the Mets are 1-6 in Niese's last 7 starts as a home underdog.  The Dodgers are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings, including 6-0 in the last 6.  The Dodgers are also 8-1 in the last road 9 meetings.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Nationals -150

Bottom Line: Gio Gonzalez has been lights out at home where he has a 1.50 ERA on the season.  The Nats are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and have won these by 2.25 runs on average.  The Mets have managed only 28 home runs on the season, and Gonzo has abused poor power teams.  The Nationals are 11-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus clubs that average 0.75 home runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average of 4.0 runs.  The Mets are among the worst offensive teams in baseball with a .229 average.  They're batting .152 during their current 3-game skid.  The Nats are 7-0 in Gonzo's last 7 starts versus the Mets, and he has posted a 1.61 ERA in these games, which Washington has won by 5.0 runs on average.  The Nats are 9-0 in their last 9 versus the Mets and have won these by 4.0 runs on average.  Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Royals -115

Bottom Line: The Royals are a good value at this price at home with Guthrie on the mound.  The Royals are 20-6 in his last 26 home starts and 15-2 in his last 17 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  Guthrie is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.89 in 3 starts versus his former club, and he has limited Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones and Manny Machado to a combined 11 for 88 (.125).  Tillman is 1-2 with an ERA of 9.00 on 4 starts versus the Royals.  Pound Kansas City.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -104

Bottom Line: We are getting Toronto at a fantastic price with southpaw J.A. Happ on the hill considering how much the Indians struggle versus left-handed starters.  Cleveland is batting a dismal .208 versus lefty starters this season and is 0-7 in its last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter.  Cleveland's Salazar hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where the Indians are 0-4 in his last 4 starts.  He has a 6.45 ERA in 3 road starts this season.  Toronto should be able to get to him at home where they are averaging 5.4 runs per game.  Pound the Blue Jays.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -113

Bottom Line: The Padres are 6-10 on the road where they are batting a dismal .201.  They are 0-4 in Cashner's last 4 starts (4.50 ERA L3 starts) and 0-3 in his road starts this season (5.00 ERA in these).  The Padres have failed to score the last 3 times Cashner has gotten the ball.  They are 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog.  San Diego lost 7-2 in Cincinnati last season in Cashner's lone start versus the Reds.  He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in the start.  The Reds have been strong at home where they are 8-3 in their last 11.  Leake has also been the victim of poor run support, but he has been sharper than Cashner.  He has a 3.07 ERA at home and a 3.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds are 5-2 in Leake's last 7 home starts.  Leake faced the Padres twice last season and only allowed 1 earned run in 14 innings.  The Padres are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Pound Cincy.