Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy NBA Revenge Game of the Month on Hawks -3
Bottom Line: Off 3 consecutive losses, at home no less, the Hawks will be out for some serious revenge tonight. It is also to their benefit that the Pacers just played last night. Indy is just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing on 0 days' rest. The Hawks have won 8 in a row at home against the Pacers and each of those 8 wins have come by at least 4 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -7
Bottom Line: This is a really good spot for the Bucks, who haven't played since Saturday. They'll be a lot fresher than the Suns, who just played in Atlanta last night. Milwaukee is 7-3 at home where it has an 11-point win over the Lakers and an 8-point win over the Heat. The fact the Bucks are coming off consecutive losses actually works in our favor. That's because Milwaukee is 29-12 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses under coach Scott Skiles. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year on Grizzlies -1.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs have struggled away from home where they have fallen in 8 of 11 this season. They have also lost 5 of their last 6 in Memphis. San Antonio has won the first 2 meetings in the 2011-12 season but that actually bodes well for us considering Memphis is 19-8 ATS when playing with double revenge over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that San Antonio is now the slight favorite at some books. This encourages me to note that the Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Bet Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jazz -2
Bottom Line: Expect a ferocious effort from the Jazz tonight as they look to bounce back from consecutive defeats and to avenge a pair of losses to the Lakers. It has been a strong play of late to fade the Lakers in the road underdog role, and we won't hesitate to do so here as they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when catching points away from home. It should also be noted that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll lay the deuce with the Jazz in this incredibly motivated spot.

5* Wiseguy Summit League Game of the Year on Oakland +1
Bottom Line: Oakland had won 10 in a row over Western Illinois before suffering a 10-point home loss to the Leathernecks on Jan. 5. As if that loss alone isn't enough motivation, the Golden Grizzlies enter this contest off consecutive narrow defeats. These events set up a terrific spot to back Oakland, who is an awesome 22-6 ATS in road games against conference opponents under coach Kampe. It should also be noted that Oakland is 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 79.3 to 68.1. In addition, W. Illinois is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. It's losing to these teams by an average score of 63.4 to 56.6. Take Oakland.

5* Wiseguy NBA Central Division Game of the Year on Pistons +4.5
Bottom Line: Hungry to end a 7-game skid and even more motivated by losing the season's first 2 meetings with Milwaukee, I expect the Pistons to put forth an impressive effort tonight. This is a bad sandwich game for the Bucks, who are coming off a big win over Miami and will be looking ahead to a date with Chicago tomorrow. The Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Pistons are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets +1.5
Bottom Line: Off back-to-back losses, and with one of those defeats to the Clippers, Denver will be out for cold hard revenge this evening. The Nuggets are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog. Also, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. Take Denver.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Thunder +1.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder were not at all happy about the way they played Monday, calling it their worst performance of the season. As if that isn't enough motivation, the Thunder will draw more incentive from a 100-87 loss at Dallas on Jan. 2. OKC is 8-0 ATS in road games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent since the beginning of last season. It has won these games by an average of 5.4 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +1
Bottom Line: I fully expect Memphis to bring its 4-game skid to an end tonight at home, where it is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Timberwolves +7
Bottom Line: The T-Wolves are a more talented team than the Rockets now that Michael Beasley is back in the lineup, and they'll be very hungry tonight after a poor performance against Houston a week ago. The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Bulls +4.5
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to side with Chicago here considering underdogs that has won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%), are 95-48 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 3.8 points on average but have lost by just 1.4 points on average. The Bulls, who are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less, have had this one circled ever since getting knocked out of the playoffs by Miami last season. That series loss will be the motivation behind a strong effort this afternoon. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on USC -12.5
Bottom Line: By making USC, who has lost 9 in a row, a double-digit fave, odds makers clearly want the money coming in on Utah. Here's why. The Utes are 0-10 when playing away from home this season, losing these games by an average of 25.0 points. The Utes have lost their 7 true road games by 21, 30, 29, 40, 3 and 27 points for an average losing margin of 26.6. The Utes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and USC is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games 15 or more games into the season versus poor teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game. It's beating these teams by an average of 21.2 points. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +7
Bottom Line: We played on the Knicks +11.5 for a cover last night and we'll stick with them here as they continue to be undervalued in the absence of Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks are an awesome 27-10 ATS as a road underdog dating back to the beginning of last season. They are also 15-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days under coach D'Antoni. Pound the Knicks.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Knicks +11.5
Bottom Line: No Carmelo Anthony for the Knicks tonight, but I like them to be really focused and hungry against arguably the best team in the NBA. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record. This shows you how overvalued Miami has been against lesser opponents. The fact New York has played consecutive games on the road and the fact this will be its 3rd road game in 4 days bodes extremely well for us. The Knicks are 9-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive road games since the start of last season and 14-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days since the start of the 2008-09 season. Take the Knicks.

5* Wiseguy NBA Bailout Game of the Month on Clippers -3.5
Bottom Line: I like the Clipps at home, where they are 8-2, laying a small number against a Memphis squad that has been inconsistent on the road. The Grizzlies are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Month on Warriors -3
Bottom Line: This is a terrible spot for Portland, which will be playing its third game in as many nights on the road, where it is 3-6 SU and ATS this season. The Warriors are 11-1 SU and ATS in their last 11 home games versus Portland, winning those games by an average of 11.3 points. All 11 wins have come by 5 points or more.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic +3.5
Bottom Line: Extremely motivated by last night's embarrassing loss, expect the Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. Orlando has won the last 5 in this series by an average of 13.6 points. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Warriors -1.5
Bottom Line: Expect fatigue to be a major issue for Memphis tonight. Playing against underdogs (MEMPHIS) off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced an 80-41 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are losing by an average of 9.4 points. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. Also, the Warriors are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home versus Memphis the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.7 points.

5* Wiseguy Big East Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -2.5
Bottom Line: Pitt will receive a huge lift emotionally and physically with the return of Travon Woodall. Louisville, meanwhile, will continue to struggle without leading scorer Kyle Kuric. Pitt has played Marquette and Syracuse tough on the road in its last 2 games, and now it returns home to catch a banged-up Louisville squad at the perfect time. Lay the points as Pitt records its long-overdue first Big East win in impressive fashion.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +3
Bottom Line: Playing on any cold team (NEW YORK) failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, and tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced a strong 72-34 ATS record since 1996. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. I'll side with a highly motivated Knicks team here as they show that they are much better than their record leads you to believe.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -5.5
Bottom Line: The 76ers are an impressive 6-1 SU and ATS at home where they are winning by an average of 19.1 points. Atlanta hasn't been nearly as strong on the road where it has taken 3 of its 4 losses. The 76ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Hawks have won 4 straight since Al Horford's injury but those 4 wins came at home - 3 of the teams had losing records and one is struggling. Atlanta played one game against Philly without Horford last season and was blasted by 34 points. We'll take the 76ers.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PUNISHER* on Mavs +3
Bottom Line: Utah had serious issues against the Mavs last season, losing all 4 meetings SU and ATS by an average of 13.5 points. Off back-to-back losses, the Mavs will give great effort tonight. Plus, they have been deadly as a road dog, covering the number in 25 of their last 33 in the role. Utah looks to be an improved team but most of its wins have come against lesser competition. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Nets -2.5
Bottom Line: This is a tough scheduling spot for the Warriors, who are playing their 2nd game in as many nights and their 4th game in 5 days. The Nets, who are hungry for their first home win, will be the fresher team with a days' rest on their side. Golden State has dropped 11 of its last 13 at New Jersey. Plus, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Heat -6.5
Bottom Line: Recent history tells us the Heat are a strong investment when coming off a double-digit loss. In fact, they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Spurs, meanwhile, are a lousy 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. San Antonio has really struggled on the road this season, going 0-4 SU and ATS and losing by an average of 11.2 points. No Dwayne Wade tonight, but that won't stop a hungry Miami squad from covering this number.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (TNT) on Celtics +3.5
Bottom Line: The Celtics haven't lost 5 in a row overall or 4 in a row at home since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen arrived to join Paul Pierce in 2007. I expect these vets to leave it all out on the floor tonight to show this young Grizzlies team their not over the hill yet. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games in this series. While OKC is 5-1 on the road, we can't ignore the fact that it is winning those games by just 2.0 points on average. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics +2.5
Bottom Line: Including the playoffs, the Celtics have won 10 of the last 12 at home against the Bulls. The Celtics are also a strong 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It looks like Derrick Rose will play tonight, but I expect him to show a little rust as his toe isn't fully healed and the Celtics are capable of putting the clamps on defensively.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Grizzlies -4.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite. They are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest. We'll take the fresher Grizzlies at home tonight.

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -4
Bottom Line: Philly has benefited from playing a soft early schedule. It has won 6 in a row but none of those wins came against elite teams. In fact, Indiana is the only one of the 6 that will likely make the playoffs. The Knicks have already defeated the Celtics, and they'll be looking to make a statement that their the best team in the Atlantic tonight. The Knicks won 117-103 the last time the 76ers visited MSG. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings in the Garden and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall. The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Knicks.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Wizards -2.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are tipping their hand here. This is the first time the Wizards have been favored since their season opener, which tells us they expect the Wiz to record their first win of the season tonight. I agree with the odds makers completely. The Wizards are at home and will be fresher than a Toronto team that just played last night. The value clearly lies with Washington, which is 65-37 ATS in its last 102 games after 5 or more consecutive losses.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +6
Bottom Line: With Boston coming off a double digit win and Indiana coming off a double digit loss, the Pacer are being undervalued by odds makers. Boston is 8-26 ATS since the beginning of last season when checking in off a win of 10 points or more. It is only winning by 0.1 points on average in this spot. It's also worth noting the Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a defeat of more than 10 points. We'll pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Blazers -3.5
Bottom Line: The Blazers have won 23 of their last 29 at home against the Lakers, and I expect them to continue their home dominance against LA tonight. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games while the Blazers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. The Blazers are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games in this series.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +9
Bottom Line: These teams met 4 times last season. Atlanta won 3 of the last 4 meetings but 2 of those wins came by 7 points or less. Basically, the Hawks are getting too much respect here because of their 36-point win over New Jersey. We can't read too much into that effort because the Nets used a ton of energy the night before to erase a 21-point deficit against the Wizards. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Gonzaga -13
Bottom Line: Expect a big letdown from Butler tonight following its upset win over Purdue. The Butler Bulldogs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. This is not the same Butler team that made it to back-to-back nation title games and it will struggle in its first game outside the Midwest this season. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Canisius +7.5
Bottom Line: The Griffins get the call tonight as they fit into a pair of very profitable situations. First off, playing on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CANISIUS) that are coming off a road loss by 20 points or more, in December games, has produced a 71-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Secondly, playing on road teams as an underdog or pickem (CANISIUS) after 5 or more consecutive losses, playing with 5 or 6 days rest, has produced a 47-20 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Both of these systems point out the tendency of odds makers to undervalue teams coming off blowout losses and teams on losing streaks. The Griffs are being undervalued tonight and we'll take advantage.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on Tennessee +3
Bottom Line: Tennessee has long been a phenomenal investment in the underdog role, and I won't hesitate to take the points with the Vols in this highly motivated spot. Tennessee is an impressive 81-55 ATS in its last 136 games as an underdog (record doesn't reflect pushes) and 29-13 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or fewer. The Vols were upset at home by Charleston last year, and I expect them to return the favor tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10
Bottom Line: With a total of 113, odds makers aren't expecting many points to be scored tonight. With this in mind, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is showing good value catching double digits. The Panthers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Wisconsin-Milwaukee got caught looking ahead to this matchup last game and went down by 16 at Northern Iowa. That's actually not a bad thing considering the way big defeats have motivated the Panthers. They are an impressive 32-14 ATS in their last 46 games following a 1oss of 15 points or more. They are losing these contests by just 2.2 points on average. The Panthers are 5-0 at home this season and they'll give the Badgers a game tonight. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on UCLA -6.5
Bottom Line: UCLA got rid of a big distraction by suspending Reeves Nelson. Without that distraction, the Bruins can get back to playing basketball. Look for this team to make a major statement with a big win tonight. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The fact UCLA has done a fantastic job of taking care of the basketball bodes well for us also as it is 6-0 ATS lifetime under coach Howland after 2 straight games committing 8 or less turnovers. It has won by an average of 19.6 points in this situation. Pound UCLA.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on Richmond +3
Bottom Line: The Spiders, who defeated VCU by 12 points last season, have been a tremendous investment. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall, 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 road games, 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games as an underdog and 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN2) on St. Bonaventure +10.5
Bottom Line: Undefeated and off a big win over a ranked Gonzaga team, this young Illinois squad is being overvalued. I'll gladly take the points with a veteran St. Bonnie bunch that is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when listed as an underdog. We'll bet the Bonnies.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Washington +8
Bottom Line: Marquette is being overvalued here because of its 7-0 start and finds itself in a letdown spot following a big upset win over Wisconsin. Washington, meanwhile, will be in bounce back mode following an upset loss to Nevada. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month on Nebraska -12.5
Bottom Line: Expect Wake to struggle in its first true road game of the season. The Demon Deacs are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games when valued as an underdog of 10 points or more. They have lost in this situation by an average score or 82.8 to 65.3. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (ESPN) on Maryland +4.5
Bottom Line: There are a number of trends working against this inexperienced Illinois team as it plays a true road game for the first time this season. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Terrapins are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Big Ten. Maryland lost by 4 points in last season's matchup, and I like it to have its revenge here.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Play of the Day on S. Alabama +15.5
Bottom Line: Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (LSU) - poor shooting team making 42% or less of its shots on the season - against an opponent that made 33% of its shots or worse last game are 44-17 ATS since 1997. This system is 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, S. Alabama is 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Arrow in road games versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or less. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Cal +2.5
Bottom Line: We'll fade Mizzou in this spot considering plays against favorites that beat the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, provided they have won 80% or more of their games on the season, are 38-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system tightens up to 18-3 (86%) ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points as an experienced Cal team does a good job of handling Mizzou's pressure tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on Louisiana-Monroe +20
Bottom Line: After a pair of big neutral floor wins over Texas A&M and Arizona, the Mississippi State Bulldogs return home as an overvalued favorite. The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games as a favorite of 13 or more points. We'll take the Warhawks.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB Underdog Game of the Month on Winthrop +18
Bottom Line: Winthrop fits into a strong neutral court system tonight. Neutral court teams (WINTHROP) after 2 consecutive losses of 10 points or more, provided they are taking on a team that scored at least 80 points in its last game, are 107-60 (64%) ATS since 1997. Amazingly, teams in this situation have only lost by an average of 4.1 points. This system tightens up to 50-26 (66%) ATS the last 5 seasons and 25-12 (68%) the last 3 seasons. It's also worth noting that the Winthrop Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on UL Monroe +21.5
Bottom Line: I'm not about to drink the Tennessee kool aid after one game. This is still an inexperienced team trying to gel under a new coach. The Vols shot nearly 65% from the field against NC Greensboro and only won by 29 points. I have no doubt Tennessee's shooting will come back down to earth in this one. The Vols are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. We'll take the UL Monroe Warhawks.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on Weber State -2.5
Bottom Line: Riding high following a win over BYU, Utah State won't give Weber State the attention it deserves tonight. This is a game Weber State wants badly, having lost 4 in a row in the series. While motivation is rarely enough on its own, the Wildcats also have the edge in terms of personnel. The Wildcats return 3 players who averaged in double figures last season and 7 of their top nine scorers overall. Utah State only returns one player who averaged double figures and only 2 of its top seven scorers. Weber State is 15-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Rahe. It's 18-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick under coach Rahe and 13-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick as the coach. It's winning these games by an average score of 77.3 to 69.9. Take Weber State.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *BLOOD BATH* on NC Greensboro +14
Bottom Line: The Volunteers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Spartans are 10-3-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *Blood Bath* on Lehigh +13
Bottom Line: Lehigh is 6-0 ATS in all lined games the last 2 seasons, and I fully expect its point-spread winning streak to continue tonight. This line has been elevated because of St. John's 15-point season-opening victory. That performance, however, wasn't as solid as the final score might lead you to believe. The Red Storm were outrebounded in that game and allowed the William & Mary Tribe to shoot nearly 46% from the field. The Johnnies greatly benefited from a huge turnover margin in that contest, but I don't see them coming up with as many turnovers tonight against an experienced Lehigh team (4 starters back) that only averaged 13 giveaways per game last season. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NCAAB *Underdog Shocker* on William & Mary +8.5
Bottom Line: A William & Mary squad that returns 4 starters has an excellent chance to pull off the upset against a St. John's team that lost 96.3% of its scoring from last year's team. The Tribe are an awesome 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big East while the Red Storm are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Colonial Athletic Association. The Red Storm are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take the Tribe.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Primetime Punisher (ABC) on Heat -4.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. Their lone loss came in Game 2 when they blew a 15 point lead down the stretch. Staring elimination and disappointment in the face, Miami won't be blowing any leads tonight. I think Miami wins Game 5 if Dallas doesn't go off from 3-point range, making 5 more 3's and shooting them 31% better than they have on average all season. The shots won't fall as easily in Miami, especially with the Heat set to up the intensity on the defensive end. Game 5 was a fluke. Prior to that, Miami had held Dallas to 40% shooting or worse in 3 of the previous 4 matchups. Lay the points as Miami forces a Game 7 with a win and cover.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game of the Year on Heat +1.5
Bottom Line: The Heat still had a chance to win Game 4 despite the worst playoff performance of LeBron James' career. A motivated James will be impossible to stop tonight. I believe he will be the catalyst to a Game 5 victory for Miami. The Heat haven't lost 2 straight since the beginning or March. They have bounced back after each of their most recent defeats with wins of 6, 21, 16, 9, 6, 8, 10, and 2 points. I fully expect Miami to bounce back yet again. Take the Heat.

5* Wiseguy Primetime Total on Heat/Mavs OVER 186.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is 19-7 Over in its last 26 home games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. We are seeing an average of 193.5 total points scored in these games. The Mavs are also 15-5 Over in their last 20 home games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 points. We have seen an average of 195.8 total points scored in these spots. Lastly, Dallas is 20-8 Over in its last 28 games after a combined score of 175 points or less. We're seeing an average of 197.7 total points scored in this situation. Pound the Over.

5* Wiseguy Primetime Punisher on Mavs -3
Bottom Line: History is on our side here considering home teams when the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) off an upset loss, if they are a good team (winning 60% to 75% of their games) and playing a team with a winning record, are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996. Dallas is 7-2 at home in these playoffs where it has not lost back-to-back games. In fact, the Mavs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following defeat. Dallas knows it let Miami dictate the tempo in Game 3 and you can bet that won't happen again here. Dallas bounced back in Game 2 and I expect an even more impressive performance this evening.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Primetime Punisher on Heat +2.5
Bottom Line: Outside the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has dominated the Mavs. Expect its defense to be the difference tonight. Miami has either won or lost by 2 points in each of the last 3 meetings with Dallas so it is showing nice value catching better than a deuce. Plus, the Heat are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games following a defeat, winning those games by 21, 16, 9, 6, 8 and 10 points respectively. Miami hasn't dropped back-to-back contests since early in March and I don't expect this trend to come to an end here. Take the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Primetime Punisher on Mavs +5
Bottom Line: I love the Mavs catching 5 points in this bounce back spot. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami. Also, Dallas is an impressive 20-7 ATS this season when in the road underdog role. It is winning these contests by an average score of 96.6 to 95.9. Dallas played much faster in its two wins over Miami during the regular season and I look for it to revisit that strategy here.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Game 1 MONSTER (ABC) on Mavericks +4.5
Bottom Line: Dallas is 13-2 ATS in all playoff games this season and 17-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. The Mavericks are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Dallas has won each of its 3 Game 1s in these playoffs and it will be fueled by its NBA Finals loss to Miami 5 years ago in this one. Take the Mavs and the points.

5* Wiseguy Game 5 MONSTER (TNT) on Bulls -3
Bottom Line: The Bulls fit into a very profitable situation tonight. Consider that favorites playing at home against a team that has defeated them 3 straight times, provided both they and their opponent carrying winning percentages between 60% and 75%, are 101-31 SU and 83-44 ATS since 1996. These teams are winning in this spot by an average score of 98.9 to 91.8. Lay the points with the Bulls in this triple revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Thunder/Mavs UNDER 199
Bottom Line: The Under is showing good value here. Defense is starting to pick up in this series and it should be at its best tonight with the Thunder fighting to stay alive and the Mavs looking to put them away. We only saw 180 total points scored in Game 3 and Game 4 was on pace to finish under this number at the end of regulation before Dirk went off late. Plays Under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, provided they are a good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 84-45 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 190.3 total points scored in this situation. In addition, the Under is 6-2 in the Thunder's last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game and 9-3-1 in the Mavericks' last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Game 4 MONSTER (TNT) on Bulls +5
Bottom Line: The Chicago Bulls haven't dropped 3 straight games all season. They've lost 2 in a row 4 other times and have bounced back to win in each of those instances by over 5.0 points on average. Chicago was really close in Games 2 and 3 despite playing beneath its potential on offense and defense in both games. I especially expect a better defensive effort from the No. 1 ranked field goal defense in the NBA tonight after allowing Miami to shoot over 50% in Game 3. The Bulls are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games following an ATS loss. Bet the Bulls.

5* Wiseguy Game 4 Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder haven't dropped back-to-back games since the first 2 days of April. That says a lot about the character of this team. Since them, OKC has lost 7 games. It has rebounded to win by an average of nearly 8.0 points per game following each of the previous 6 defeats during this span and I expect it to bounce back strong from its 7th loss during this span as well. Kevin Durant was 0-for-8 from 3-point land in Game 3 and the team was only 1-for-17 from beyond the arc. I'm betting that OKC won't settle for as many contested 3's and won't shoot them as poorly tonight. The Thunder are still a rock solid 6-2 at home in these playoffs. We'll lay the points on them tonight.

5* Wiseguy PRIMETIME PUNISHER (TNT) on Heat -4.5
Bottom Line: Miami is a perfect 6-0 at home in these playoffs with wins of 8, 21, 6, 9, 11 and 10 points. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) looking for revenge for an upset defeat, provided they are playing with 3 or more days' rest, are just 26-51 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 7.0 points. Miami's defense was dominant in Game 2, holding Chicago to only 34.1% shooting. Expect the Heat to feed off the home crowd and bring the same energy on the defensive end tonight. The result should be another win and cover. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Mavs/Thunder UNDER 201
Bottom Line: After a pair of subpar defensive efforts by both teams, expect each side to really tighten the screws tonight. These two teams have consistently played lower scoring games in Oklahoma City. In fact, we have only seen an average of 192.8 total points scored in the last 5 matchups in OKC. Looking back further, these teams have combined to average only 188.6 points in their last 9 games at OKC/SEA. In addition, road teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (DALLAS) that are out for revenge for an upset loss and are a good team with a 60-75% win rate on the season, are 41-17 (71%) to the Under the last 5 seasons. We have seen just 197.2 total points scored on average with this system. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Game 2 Monster (ESPN) on Thunder +5.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder haven't lost back-to-back games since the first 2 days of April. Prior to that, OKC hadn't lost consecutive contests since late February. Prior to the Game 1 defeat, the Thunder had lost just 5 times since April 2nd and rebounded to win the very next game each time by an average of 8.2 points. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Heat +2.5
Bottom Line: Home teams with a winning percentage of .740 or better in the 2nd game of a conference finals series are a dismal 2-13-1 ATS the last 18 years. In addition, teams coming off a blowout victory of 20 points or more in the NBA playoffs are a terrible 66-110 ATS the last 20 years if matched up against a foe checking in off a SU and ATS defeat. Neither of these trends look good for Chicago. Plus, Miami hasn't lost consecutive games in over 2 months. Prior to the Game 1 defeat, the Heat had lost just 5 times since March 10 and rebounded to win the very next game each time by an average of 12.0 points. This is a great spot for Miami. Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy Game 1 Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Thunder +6
Bottom Line: I really believe the long layoff will affect Dallas' rhythm tonight. Therefore, the Mavs shouldn't be laying this many points. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Thunder are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Dallas. Plus, OKC is an impressive 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder bench is every bit as good as the Dallas bench with guys like Harden and Collison coming off it. Plus the Thunder are more athletic and that is going to put a lot of pressure on Dallas defenders. Take the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy Game 7 MONSTER (ABC) on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder have the big advantage playing at home in Game 7 when you consider the recent history - home teams are 21-7 in Game 7s the past decade. OKC hasn't lost back-to-back games in these playoffs and has won its last 2 home games in this series by 9 and 27 points. The Thunder are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last 7 home games against Memphis. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy Gm 6 Primetime Punisher (ESPN) on Grizzlies -1.5
Bottom Line: Under coach Hollins, Memphis is an impressive 16-4 ATS when out to avenge a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. Memphis is also an awesome 22-5 ATS off a road loss this season and 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. I especially like the Grizz in this spot because they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a defeat of more than 10 points. Take Memphis.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff Primetime Punisher on Bulls -3.5
Bottom Line: After watching Miami close out the Celtics last night, I believe the Bulls will smell blood here. The Bulls are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 off a home win by 10 points or more. In addition, Atlanta is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 second round playoff games. After winning Game 2 at home, the Bulls went on the road and crushed the Hawks in Game 3. Expect a similar result tonight.

5* Wiseguy Game 5 Monster on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder are back home with all the momentum after Monday's triple-OT win. They have done a good job on Zach Randolph since he went off in Game 1, making him take a lot of shots to get his points. I can't see him being effective enough tonight after logging 55:56 minutes in Game 4. Gasol also figures to be fatigued after playing 57:08 last game. Expect OKC to really look to push the tempo to take the Memphis bigs right out of this game. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 181
Bottom Line: Under defensive genius Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls are 10-1 UNDER when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to a foe, including a perfect 7-0 UNDER if that defeat occurred on the road. Coach Thibodeau is not at all happy with the way his Bulls defended in Game 4, and I expect his troops to respond to his criticism at home tonight. Take the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Super System *POWER PLAY* on Thunder +2.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder have only lost 2 or more consecutive games 5 times this season and just once since the start of April. This is a very resilient team and will be extremely hungry after letting Game 3 get away. Since the beginning of last season, OKC is an awesome 11-0 ATS on the road when looking to avenge a road defeat to an opponent. The Thunder have won these games outright by an average of 1.7 points. Look for this system to improve to 12-0 as OKC earns another outright win.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Bulls/Hawks UNDER 179
Bottom Line: The Bulls and Hawks both shot around 47% from the field in Game 3 and the Bulls made 10 3-pointers and we only saw 181 total points scored. Chicago, which is a mediocre 3-point shooting team, should cool off from deep and both teams should up the intensity on the defensive end this evening. Historically, Game 4 of any playoff series has been very intense and we have seen the total score come in Under the number often because of it. Consider that plays Under on any team in the 4th game of a playoff series is 108-54 the last 5 seasons, including 14-2 this season. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are looking to trap the public big time with this line after a pair of high-scoring overs to start the series. Expect the tide to turn in Game 3 as the intensity builds with each team looking to take control. Plays Under on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - extremely well rested team (playing 3 or less games in 10 days) with a winning record on the season and playing another winning team are 135-82 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 192.7 total points scored in this situation. Also, plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS), if they have beaten the spread by 18 points total or more in their last three games and if they have a winning percentage between 51% and 60% on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff Primetime Punisher on Bulls -2.5
Bottom Line: Chicago's defense has given Atlanta fits all season with the exception of Game 1. The Bulls dominated the Hawks on the defensive end in Game 2 and I expect more of the same tonight. Chicago is holding Atlanta to only 83.2 points in 5 meetings this season. The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and the Hawks are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Conference Semifinals games. Expect Chicago to take back control of this series tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 180
Bottom Line: Really think this one will finish under the number by double digits. After giving up 103 points on 51.3% shooting in Game 1, expect the NBA's best defensive team to really dig in on the defensive end tonight. Chicago is 23-10 UNDER when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. Also, the Hawks have been one of the weaker offensive teams in the NBA all season. They have played to the Under in 5 of their last 6 games and we have only seen an average of 171.4 total points scored in those 5 unders. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 19-8 UNDER in their last 27 home games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more. We have only seen an average of 195.2 total points scored in these games. Also, plays UNDER on any team (MEMPHIS) in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), if the play on team has made 47% or more of its shots the last 3 games, are 198-123 (62%) since 1996. We are only seeing an average of 195.9 total points scored in this situation. After a poor defensive effort in Game 1, expect the Thunder to really tighten the screws here tonight. Take the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre (TNT) on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 189
Bottom Line: Expect this series to be a war from the start with physical defense and a slow tempo catering to the Under. Consider that plays Under on any team (LA LAKERS) in a game involving two teams that allow between 92-98.0 ppg, if we are 42 or more games into the season and if the play on team has allowed 90 points or less 2 straight games, are 91-51 the last 5 seasons. We have only seen an average of 182.4 total points scored in this situation. The Lakers are also 13-5 Under versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season and 20-7 Under as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy Western Conference Semifinal Game of the Year on Thunder -6.5
Bottom Line: The Grizzlies took 3 of 4 from the Thunder during the regular season but Perkins was not available for any of those games. OKC has become a completely different defensive team since he has become a regular. He gives the Thunder the defensive post presence they need alongside Ibaka to make life difficult for Z-Bo (Randolph). Durant is a matchup nightmare for the shorter Tony Allen and Westbrook will be a handful for the shorter Conley. Plus, it's going to be tough for Memphis to bring enough energy to the floor with such a quick turnaround following its biggest win in franchise history. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and I expect this trend to continue here. Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Spurs/Grizzlies UNDER 189
Bottom Line: Both teams have shot 45.9% or better from the floor in Games 4 and 5, and we saw a pair of Overs as a result. I don't expect the points to comes as easy in this one with all that's at stake for both squads. The Under has been the play when these teams have gotten together in Memphis, cashing tickets in 9 of the last 13 meetings. The Under is also 8-3 in the Grizzlies' last 11 home contests and 5-1 in its last 6 as a home favorite. San Antonio is 9-3-1 to the Under in its last 13 playoff games as an underdog. We'll keep playing the trends, and it should keep paying off for us tonight. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Lakers/Hornets UNDER 184
Bottom Line: We only saw 196 total points scored in Game 5 when both teams shot over 49% from the field. With the Lakers looking to close out the series and the Hornets looking to stay alive, we can expect both teams to pick up their play on the defensive end. The Lakers are 51-36 UNDER in all games this season, 23-12 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs this season and 24-13 UNDER after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 52-35 UNDER in all games this season, 18-9 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 10-3 UNDER in its last 13 home games versus a team with a winning road record. It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in the Lakers' last 12 road games. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Nuggets/Thunder UNDER 204.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder was not at all happy about its defensive performance in Game 4. It didn't defend the basket well early and didn't defend the 3-point shot well late. It also fouled way too much. Expect OKC to tighten the screws on the defensive end tonight and for the finals score to finish under the number as a result. 6 of the last 7 games between these teams have finished Under and OKC has held the Nuggets to an average of 95.5 ppg in the 6 meetings with them since the Melo trade. Take the Under.

5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Pacers/Bulls OVER 187
Bottom Line: I really like the Over here as the series shifts back to Chicago where these teams have played to the Over in 5 of their last 7. Plus, Consider that plays Over on all teams when the posted total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a losing record - are 51-21 the last 15 years, including 2-0 already this season. We have seen an average of 192.2 total points scored with this system. Pound the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Grizzlies OVER 189
Bottom Line: Plays on the OVER on all home teams (Memphis in this case) when the over/under line is between 180 and 189.5 points, if that team is only playing its 2nd game in 5 days and is coming off a victory by 3 or fewer points over a division rival, are 35-8 (81.4%) since 1996. Teams fitting this situation have combined with their opponents to beat the number by an average of 10.2 points. We'll take the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 195.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 22-6 in the last 28 in the 4th game of a playoff series when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. Also, plays Under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (BOSTON) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days - are 25-6 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, plays Under on home teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (NEW YORK) - revenging a home upset loss and up against an opponent off a win against a division rival - are a perfect 7-0 the last 5 seasons. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Mavs/Blazers UNDER 187
Bottom Line: Right away I like the fact that the Under is 94-52 in all Game 4's in the playoffs the last 5 seasons. The last 2 games in this series have barely gone over this number despite both teams shooting extremely well. Portland has shot out of its mind from 3-point range the last 2 games but consider that it is 15-4 UNDER in its last 19 after 2 straight games making 50% of its 3 point shots or better. We are only seeing an average of 180.2 total points scored in this situation. Also, Dallas is a rock solid 29-16 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Celtics/Knicks OVER 191
Bottom Line: 189 total points were scored in Game 2 with the Knicks shooting just 35.6% from the field and with Amare Stoudemire going out with back spasms. Stoudemire is expected back and the Knicks will shoot better at home, where they are averaging 108.1 points on 47.2% shooting this season. The Over is 5-1 in the Celtics' last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Over is 6-1 in the Knicks' last 7 home games and 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite. 13 of the last 17 meetings between these teams have finished over this number. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Blowout on Heat/76ers OVER 186.5
Bottom Line: Miami, which averages 7 3-point makes a game on nearly 37% shooting, was just 3 of 15 from beyond the arc in Game 2. This is significant because the Heat are 7-0 Over this season following a game where they made 20% or fewer of their 3 point shots. We have seen an average of 211.5 total points scored in these games. I also like the fact that the Over is 5-1 in Philly's last 6 games following a double-digit defeat. This is basically a do-or-die game for Philadelphia already, considering the history of teams that fall into a 0-3 hole. Expect the 76ers to speed up the tempo at home and expect them to place an emphasis on driving the ball to the basket. That should result in more trips to the foul line. Scoring points with the clock stopped is always great for the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoff "Total" Massacre on Hornets/Lakers UNDER 188
Bottom Line: After holding New Orleans to an average of 91.0 ppg in 4 regular season meetings, The Lakers allowed Chris Paul and company to torch them for 109. Phil Jackson has proven to be great at making adjustments in the postseason and I expect him to find a way to slow Paul down tonight. It's not like they haven't done it before. The Lakers held him to only 10 points in a 102-84 home win on March 27. LA will tighten the screws defensively here and this one should come in Under the number as a result. The Under is 25-10-1 in the Lakers' last 36 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more and 12-3 in their last 15 games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. Pound the Under.

5* 1st Round NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Magic -8.5
Bottom Line: The public is all over Atlanta here because of its regular season success against Orlando and its Game 1 win, but I won't hesitate to go against the grain. Orlando, without question, will be the hungrier team tonight. Plus, I'm not about to let 1 road win in the playoffs by the Hawks to make me forget about their mediocre road play during the season and their terrible road play in the postseason in recent years. Consider that Atlanta is on a 6-20 ATS skid in road playoff games, losing them by 12.9 points on average. The Hawks are also 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, Orlando is on an impressive 15-5 ATS run in home games following a double-digit defeat. The Magic are winning these contests by an average of 14.0 points. Take the Magic.

5* Wiseguy 1st Round NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Bulls Under 192
Bottom Line: The Bulls ranked No. 1 in field goal percentage defense this season, allowing foes to shoot just 43%, but they allowed Indiana to shoot 46.4% in game 1. Chicago also ranked No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 32.6% from deep, but it allowed Indiana to make 10 of 18 3-point shots in game 1. When asked what the Bulls need to improve on defensively in game 2, coach Thibodeau said "Everything. Every aspect from ball pressure, challenging shots, finishing the defense, getting back, getting set. Fourth-quarter defense was a lot different than the rest of the game." His team has received the message loud and clear and I expect a completely different defensive effort tonight. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *Monster Line Mistake* on Nuggets +6
Bottom Line: Denver is 12-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, winning these games by an average score of 100.4 to 100.1. It is also 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 12-2 ATS in its last 14 road games. In addition, the Nuggets are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games when playing with 3 or more days rest. The Nuggets are fresh and as healthy as they've been in a while. Plus, they will be very hungry here after a pair of April defeats to the Thunder. We'll Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *Monster Line Mistake* on Hawks +8.5
Bottom Line: Atlanta found itself in the underdog role 4 times against the Magic this season. The Hawks covered the spread in all 4 meetings, winning 3 outright and losing the 1 by only 4 points. Atlanta is a much better defensive team this season and should prove to be better yet in the playoffs after upgrading at the point guard spot with Kirk Hinrich - known as one of the better on-ball defenders in the league. The Hawks lost their last 6 games, but they were also resting players and cutting back minutes since they really didn't have an opportunity to improve their seeding. The Magic are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Take Atlanta and the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Jazz -4
Bottom Line: The Nuggets have no incentive to win this game as they are guaranteed the No. 5 seed in the West. As a result, coach Karl has made the decision to rest Afflalo, Nene, K-Mart, Felton and maybe even Gallinari. The reserves will see the majority of the minutes for Denver tonight and that leaves them very susceptible to a blowout, especially since the Jazz have continued to fight hard. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 204
Bottom Line: Coach Thibodeau has said he won't rest his starters, which means I expect a strong effort from the Bulls as they look to go after home court throughout the entire playoffs and avenge a pair of losses to the Knicks. Chicago has allowed New York over the century mark in both meetings this season, so it will really be looking to tighten the screws defensively tonight. Also, Chicago is a perfect 7-0 UNDER when playing a 3rd road game in 5 days this season. We are only seeing a total of 176.6 points scored on average in these games. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Massacre on Jazz/Hornets UNDER 193.5
Bottom Line: After giving up 111 points to Memphis Sunday, expect the Hornets, which are only allowing 92.3 ppg at home this season, to really dig in here. This will be New Orleans's 3rd game in 4 days, so I expect to see a lot of half-court stuff from Chris Paul and company to save their legs. This has typically been the case in these situations as New Orleans is 20-4 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. We have only seen an average of 180.9 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Thunder/Lakers OVER 189.5
Bottom Line: After 4 straight defeats, this is a game the Lakers really want. Expect them to be very aggressive offensively in the early going to set the tone. Plus, this one figures to be very physical with plenty of fouls, so we should see quite a bit of scoring done at the foul line without the clock moving. Both teams have been unders machines this season, but odds makers have been forced to bring this line down because of it. We saw 195 total points scored in this season's previous meeting in LA and I like this one to reach 200. Bet the Over.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 200
Bottom Line: First off, the Jazz are 10-1 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 since Corbin took over. Utah is also 9-1 UNDER when playing with double revenge (2 straight losses vs. an opponent) this season. We are only seen an average of 190.3 total points scored in these games. In addition, San Antonio is 12-1 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.5 total points scored in this situation. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" MASSACRE on Kings/Grizzlies UNDER 203
Bottom Line: Plays Under on all teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more - are 143-87 the last 5 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies' last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Under.