Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -133

Bottom Line: The Indians evened the series behind their ace, but I don't see them taking the series with Carrasco making his first start since April.  The Indians are just 2-12 in their last 14 in the Bronx.  Carrasco has given up at least 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts, and the Tribe is 3-14 in his last 17 starts and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Carrasco is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus the Yanks, allowing 13 runs in 7 2-3 innings  The Yankees are 7-2 in Kuroda's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Kuroda has given up more than 3 earned runs only 3 times in his last 15 starts.  Kuroda hasn't allowed more than 5 hits or 3 runs in any of his 3 starts versus the Indians.  Pound the Yankees.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Titans -1

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -157

Bottom Line: The Pirates, who are an NL-best 37-22 at home, are worth the price today.  They are 11-2 over their last 13 home games while the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 on the road, including 0-4 in their last 4 away games versus winning clubs.  Liriano has been lights out of late with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts since the All-Star break.  The Pirates are 15-5 in his last 20 home starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Stults has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season, and the Padres are 6-20 in his last 26 road starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Bills -1.5

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -123

Bottom Line: Cincy is 8-1 in its last 9 games versus the Marlins.  It is also 19-6 in its last 25 home games versus the Fish.  Look for Cincy's dominance to continue behind Leake, who is 2-0 in his last 2 starts while allowing 1 run in 13 2-3 innings.  He's also 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 3 career starts versus Miami.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 5.82 ERA over his last 7 starts.  The Marlins are 3-9 in his last 12 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Cincy is 22-4 lifetime in Leake's home starts in the 2nd half of the season versus teams that strikeout 7 times per game or more.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -134

Bottom Line: Flynn has made 4 career starts for the Marlins.  They are 0-4 in those starts while he's compiled an 8.50 ERA and a .370 opponent average.  No matter what uniform Volquez has worn, he's own the Marlins.  His clubs are 6-0 in his 6 career starts against them while posting a tidy 1.95 ERA.  Additionally, the Pirates are 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 starts versus teams with a losing record.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy NFLX Game of the Week on Jets -3

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy Interleague *BEST BET* on Angels -147

Bottom Line: AL clubs that average 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game and are starting a pitcher who averages 5.0 strikeouts per start or more are 54-18 since 1997 if they are matched up against an NL club that is starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Haren has a 4.76 ERA on the season and has really started to unravel, going 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 10.03.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: Having yesterday off should be just what the doctor ordered for St. Louis, which is 17-2 the last 2 seasons in home games following a day off.  And, the Cards will show no mercy to the team that defeated them in the World Series.  Boston is 2-10 in its last 12 games and doesn't figure to get much help from De La Rosa, who has a 6.04 ERA on the road.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in De La Rosa's last 4 road starts.  The Cards are 72-32 the last 3 seasons versus teams getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game, including 23-3 in home games played in the second half of the season during this span.  Lynn has a 2.98 ERA on the season, a 2.71 ERA at home and a 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Cobb is pitching great, but his 3.45 road ERA is over a run higher than the 2.30 home ERA Samardzija has posted.  Plus, the A's have already seen Cobb this season while the Rays have never faced Samardzija.  It will be mighty tough for Tampa to figure out a pitcher it's not familiar with, especially when that pitcher has posted a 0.82 WHIP while holding foes to a .203 avg. since coming over from the NL.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Samardzija's 4 starts as a favorite and 77-34 in their last 111 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Rays are 18-45 in their last 63 meetings in Oakland.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Orioles +103

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games and 0-4 in Iwakuma's last 4 starts versus the American League East.  Iwakuma has a 5.25 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Orioles, one of those being a 4-0 home loss last week.  The Orioles are 15-4 in Tillman's last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as an underdog.  Tillman is 5-0 lifetime with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 0.909 in 5 starts versus the Mariners.  The Mariners are 6-14 in the last 20 meetings and 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore.  Pound the O's.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on White Sox -119

Bottom Line: Here, we have a pair of teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm getting behind the one on the upswing at a very reasonable price.  The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 games.  They are even 1-7 in their last eight versus teams that have a sub .500 record and 0-4 in their last 4 in the second game of a series.  The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 and 4-1 in their last 5 versus Minnesota.  The Twins won at home when Pino and Carroll dueled Sunday, but Carroll gave up just 1 run and has been trending in the right direction with a 2.38 ERA over his last 4 outings.  He gave up 1 or no runs in 3 of those.  Playing against all AL teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that average 4.2 runs per game or fewer and allowed 10 runs or more last game has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, AL home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that have a team batting averaging of .265 or worse but are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 34-14 since 1997, including a perfect 3-0 the last 3 seasons.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy Run Line Blowout Game of the Month on White Sox -1.5 -125

Bottom Line: Last Saturday, Sale easily outdueled Darnell in a 7-0 win at Minnesota.  I expect no different tonight in Chicago.  Sale is 10-1 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP on the season.  The WHIP is extremely significant.  Consider that Minnesota is 0-13 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or better.  The Twins have lost these contests by an average of 4.0 runs.  Sale is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.28 and a 0.993 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Twins.  Each of the 6 victories have come by at least 2 runs.  Pound the Sox on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MLB Total of the Week on Reds/Marlins UNDER 6.5

Bottom Line: Cincy's offense is really struggling.  It has scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of its last 12 games while batting .189.  With Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips on the DL and Jay Bruce on the bereavement list, I see the offensive struggles continuing.  The Reds will have a tough time getting to Koehler, who has a 2.75 home ERA on the season and a 1.38 ERA over his last 2 starts at Marlins Park.  Miami has scored 3 runs or less in 14 of its last 19 games, and it will get nothing easy off Cueto, who has posted a 2.08 ERA.  The under is 37-17-2 in Cueto's last 56 starts.  The under is 9-1 in Cincy's last 10 games and 4-0 in its last 4 road games.  It is also 8-0 in its last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 in its last 4 series openers.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals -144

Bottom Line: KC's Duffy has been dealing all season, as evidenced by his 2.47 ERA.  He's been almost unhittable lately with a 1.93 ERA over his last 6 outings and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3.  He has a 2.13 ERA in 6 career appearances versus Minnesota.  Hughes has a 4.10 ERA on the season, a 6.31 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3.  He also has a 5.89 ERA in 9 career starts versus KC.  The Twins are 5-21 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better.  Twins are 1-4 in Hughes' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 45-21 in their last 66 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 25-12 in their last 37 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  KC is 10-4 in its last 14 home games versus Minnesota.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -148

Bottom Line: The Braves are 0-10 the last 2 seasons in road games when facing an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  They have lost these contests 3.6 runs on average.  Additionally, playing against underdogs of +125 to +175 that have a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower on the season but are batting .250 or worse as a team has resulted in a 97-39 record since 1997 if they are facing an NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  Plus, this is a tough situational spot for the Braves, which made the long trip from Atlanta to LA following yesterday's game.  The Dodgers should benefit from having been at home yesterday and having the day off.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cubs -142

Bottom Line: The Rockies are 15-37 in their last 52 overall and 25-56 in their last 81 on the road, including 1-12 in their last 13 and 0-6 in their last 6.  They are 16-41 in their last 57 road games versus a left-handed starter, 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games, 5-17 in their last 22 series openers and 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Chicago.  Colorado is also 0-4 in Flande's 4 career starts, during which he's posted a 7.20 ERA.  The Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 series openers and have the more promising starter on the hill with Wada.  Flande was 2-10 with an ERA of 5.00 in triple-A this season before getting the call up.  Wada was 10-6 with a 2.77 ERA in triple-A before getting his call.  You want to play against National League July road dogs of +125 to +175 that give up 4.8 runs per game or more on the season as doing so has produced a 43-7 record the last 5 seasons, an 11-1 record the last 3 seasons and a 3-0 record this season.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Phillies -140

Bottom Line: Lee was rocked in his first start back, but he almost always follows a poor outing with a strong one.  He has every incentive to pitch well here in an audition spot prior to the trade deadline.  He has a 2.83 home ERA on the season while Collmenter has a 5.17 road ERA.  Lee has a 3.12 ERA in 7 starts versus the D-backs, and the Phillies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against them.  Lee's clubs are 4-0 lifetime in his home starts versus the Snakes.  The D-backs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage less than .400 and 3-14 in their last 17 in Philadelphia.  Pound the Phillies.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Week on Yankees -125

Bottom Line: Toronto shut out Boston yesterday, but it is 0-9 under manager Gibbons following a win over a division opponent where it allowed one run or none.  It has lost by an average of 3.3 runs in this situation.  The Yankees are 16-0 in their last 16 at home versus Toronto, and they have owned Buehrle, whose clubs are 0-9 in his last nine road starts versus the Yankees.  Kuroda has had much better luck versus the Blue Jays, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 career home starts against them, including 2 wins over Buehrle.  Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -132

Bottom Line: The Mariners are showing a lot of value at this price given the edge they hold on the mound with Iwakuma.  The right-hander has been rock solid at home (2.81 ERA) and enters in top form (1.59 ERA L3 starts).  The same can't be said about Baltimore's Chen, who has a 4.68 ERA on the road and a 4.32 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Chen is also 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in 4 starts versus Seattle.  Chen hasn't pitched well enough to have 10 wins.  He's benefited from the league's highest run support average (6.36).  Unfortunately for him, the Orioles are batting a big league-worst .205 since July 9 and .167 in their past four games.  I don't see the O's getting enough off Iwakuma to get the win tonight.  AL favorites of -110 or higher are 57-15 the last 5 seasons when starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower against an opponent that is starting a pitcher with a win percentage higher than 70.0 percent.  Pound the M's.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Angels -162

Bottom Line: Tillman is 6-0 on the road, but his 4.69 ERA away from home is a big concern.  An LA club that leads the majors with 5.0 runs per game should be able to get to him.  Baltimore has been able to provide Tillman with run support on the road, but it will have a tough time getting much off Weaver.  The Angels are 6-0 in his last 6 starts, during which he's posted a 2.78 ERA.  He has a 2.26 ERA in his last 10 home starts.  The Angels are 89-36 lifetime in Weaver's home starts, including 39-12 in his last 51.  The Halos are also 27-6 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, including 20-4 at home in this price range.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -125

Bottom Line: The Tigers have cashed 5* Wiseguy tickets for us the past two days, and I'll continue to ride them at a very reasonable price against an inferior opponent.  Detroit is 12-3 in its last 15 road games, 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 road starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Tigers have been playing exceptional defense, and this is significant because they are 7-0 this season in road games after a stretch of 15 consecutive games with one error or less.  The Diamondbacks are an ultra soft 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Tigers are showing a ton of value at this price on the road (11-3 L14 road games), in interleague play (54-25 L79 interleague games versus losing teams) and versus a lefty starter (batting .289 vs. lefty starters this season, 27-11 L38 games versus lefty starters).  Even more importantly, they have Verlander on the bump.  While Big V has been average this season, his track record of success versus the NL can't be ignored. He's an unbeaten 12-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 14 regular-season interleague starts since June of 2010.  Look for Verlander to outduel Nuno, who is 0-3 in his last 3, 1-5 in his last 6 and 3-9 in his last 12 on the money line.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last 6 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 4 of a series and 2-7 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Indians are 4-13 in their last 17 road games versus a left-handed starter and 16-35 in their last 51 in Detroit.  The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following defeat in the first 3 games of a series and 11-5 in their last 16 game 4's of a series.  Cleveland hasn't swept a series in Detroit since Aug 25-27, 2008, and it has never recorded a 4-game sweep there.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Marlins +107

Bottom Line: The Marlins are showing tremendous value in the home dog role with Alvarez on the rubber.  They are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus winning teams, 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game 2 of a series and 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Alvarez has a 1.19 ERA in his last eight home starts and his 1.56 season ERA at home ranks second in the majors.  San Francisco's Tim Hudson has gone 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his last 5 starts with the Giants losing 4 of those.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -140

Bottom Line: The Indians can't be trusted on the road, where they are 16-36 in their last 52 versus clubs with winning home records, especially with Bauer on the hill.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA in five road starts with the Indians losing four of those.  The Tribe has also dropped six of its last seven series openers.  Cleveland is 3-13 this season in road games versus AL clubs starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 or lower.  Sanchez certainly fits into that category with a 3.04 ERA on the season.  He also has a 2.34 ERA in 8 career starts versus the Indians.  The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 series openers, 7-1 in their last 8 division games, 5-1 in Sanchez's last 6 starts, 10-4 in his last 14 division starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus Cleveland.  The Indians are 15-37 in the last 52 meetings in Detroit.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Oakland is 9-2 over the last 3 seasons following 2 straight road losses to a division opponent.  It is 21-8 over the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for 2 straight losses in which it was held to 2 runs or less.  Seattle is 8-24 over the last 2 seasons after allowing 2 runs or less in 2 straight games.  The A's are on a 7-2 run in the third game of the series, are 52-19 in their last 71 as a favorite and are 40-15 in their last 55 Sunday contests.  They are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 Sunday starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The A's are also 8-1 in his last 9 division starts and 6-1 in his last 7 as a road favorite.  Gray is 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Seattle while giving up only 2 earned runs in 18 innings.  Pound Oakland in this double revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy MLB Line Mistake of the Month on Phillies +120

Bottom Line: The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, and I like them to keep right on rolling behind Hamels, who has a 2.87 ERA on the season.  He's a stellar 15-6 with an ERA of 2.58 in 28 career starts versus Washington.  The Phillies are 15-3 in his last 18 starts versus the Nats, including 3-0 in his last 3.  They are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus the Nats.  Strasburg has a 5.13 ERA in 8 road starts this season.  That's not an aberration, it's a trend.  The Nationals are 1-4 in Strasburg's last 5 road starts and 18-39 in the last 57 meetings in Philadelphia.  Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Year on Rays -130

Bottom Line: The Blue Jays have been really struggling since early June, and I expect their struggles to continue versus a Tampa Bay club that is rounding into shape.  The Rays lost last time out but are 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss, 9-3 in their last 12 and 5-0 in their last 5 division contests.  They are also 4-0 in their last 4 versus lefty starters.  Buehrle got out of the gate strong but has cooled off.  The Jays are 1-5 in his last 6 starts, including 0-3 on the road during this stretch.  They are also 0-4 in his last 4 starts when he gets the ball following a team loss.  The Blue Jays are 1-8 in their last 9 road games, 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-6 in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Archer has quietly been sizzlin' since mid-May, holding the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts.  The Rays are 9-3 in Archer's last 12 starts as a home favorite.  He's 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in 5 starts versus the Blue Jays.  Buehrle, on the other hand, has given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts versus Tampa Bay.  The Blue Jays are 16-45 in the last 61 meetings in Tampa Bay.  Pound the Rays.

5* Wiseguy NL Central Game of the Month on Pirates +105

Bottom Line: Look for Pittsburgh to avoid being swept behind a gem from Volquez, who is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts.  He's given up just 1 run in his last 2 starts in 13 innings of work, and this is a very positive sign.  His teams are 13-3 lifetime in his starts when he's given up 1 or no earned runs in his last 2 outings.  The Cardinals are 0-4 in Miller's last 4 starts while he's posted a 7.32 ERA.  Pound Pittsburgh.

5* Wiseguy Battle of the Bay *BEST BET* on Giants +110

Bottom Line: The A's are 0-3 in their last 3 road games and 1-5 in their last 6 road games versus winning clubs.  They are 17-41 in their last 58 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record and 2-12 in the last 14 meetings in San Francisco (86% trend in favor of the Giants).  The Giants are 37-16 in their last 53 interleague home games, 26-8 in their last 34 interleague home games versus a right-handed starter and 7-3 in their last 10 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.  Hammel is making his first start since coming over from the Cubs and hasn't pitched in this ballpark since 2011.  Cain has given up 1 earned run or none in each of his last 5 starts versus the A's.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Week on Tigers -110

Bottom Line: Verlander is starting to come around with a 2.84 ERA over his last 3 starts, including a win over the A's - arguably the best team in baseball - in his most recent start.  Verlander has been a gold mine in interleague play. He's 22-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 29 career starts versus the NL, including an 11-0 mark with a 1.78 ERA in his last 13.  He's an unbeaten 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 14 career interleague home starts.  Ryu is just 2-2 with a 4.23 ERA in six career interleague starts.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -173

Bottom Line: Books are begging for underdog money with this line, but Washington is this large of a favorite for a reason.  Baltimore's Tillman has a 6.00 ERA in 8 interleague starts, including a 6.52 ERA in a pair of starts versus Washington.  He also has an ugly 5.53 ERA on the road.  Strasburg has been brilliant at home where he has a 2.35 ERA on the season.  He's 1-0 with an ERA of 1.80 in his lone start versus Baltimore.  The Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 interleague road games versus a team with a winning record while the Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 interleague home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Nats are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home favorite, 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts versus the American League East, 7-2 in his last 9 home starts and 5-2 in his last 7 interleague starts.  Pound the Nationals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Astros +1.5

Bottom Line: The Angels are being grossly overvalued with Santiago on the mound.  He's winless on the season with a 4.32 ERA in 10 starts, and his clubs are a weak 2-12 in his last 14, 6-19 in his last 25 and 8-24 in his last 32 starts. His clubs are 0-8 the last 2 seasons in his starts as a favorite of -110 or higher and have lost these by an average of 5.1 runs.  Feldman has a 3.92 ERA in 14 starts this season, including a 2.73 ERA in 6 road starts.  The Astros are 10-4 on the run line in his starts, including 4-0 on the run line in his last 4.  Feldman's teams are also 10-4 lifetime against the run line in his starts versus the Halos.  Houston is 12-3 against the run line in all games at the LA Angels the last 3 seasons.  Pound Houston on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: The Cards are showing a lot of value as a medium-priced favorite against a club that is just 27-62 in its last 89 road games versus winning teams.  The Marlins are on a 0-7 skid versus winning ball clubs.  The Cards are 77-33 in home games versus losing teams under manager Matheny.  They are also 22-4 in July home games under Matheny and 90-38 in home games versus NL clubs with a batting avg. of .255 or worse under his watch.  Eovaldi has an ERA of 6.00 over his last 4 starts, and I expect the struggles to continue after throwing a season-high 113 pitches last time out.  Lynn took it on the chin in his last start, but that was an aberration.  He had posted a 0.82 ERA in his previous 3 outings.  The Marlins are on a 0-5 slide in St. Louis.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Year on Red Sox -165

Bottom Line: The Cubs took Game 1, but I'm confident they won't get Game 2.  The Cubs are 18-44 in their last 62 games following a win, including 1-11 this season in road games following a win.  Edwin Jackson has a 6.70 ERA on the road and a 5.59 career ERA versus Boston.  The Cubs are 6-20 in Jackson's last 26 starts.  And, Jackson's clubs are 0-6 lifetime in his starts at Fenway.  He has a 7.84 ERA ERA in these six starts.  The Red Sox are 13-4 under manager Farrell when out for revenge for a shutout loss to an opponent.  They've won 10 of their last 13 at home and are 80-32 in their last 112 interleague home games.  Buchholz looked great from the 3rd inning on in his first start since spending a month on the DL.  He should enter this one with renewed confidence and should benefit from facing hitters that aren't familiar with his stuff.  The Red Sox are 7-1 in Buchholz's last 8 interleague starts.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -117

Bottom Line: I'll back the red-hot Reds against a San Diego club that is last in the majors in batting average (.212) and scoring averaging (3.0).  The Padres are batting only .130 over their last four games.  They'll have trouble generating offense against the former Padre Latos, who has a 2.99 ERA in 33 starts at Petco.  The Reds are 41-20 in Latos' last 61 starts, 34-16 in his last 50 starts as a favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 Monday starts.  The Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 versus the National League West and 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a right-handed starter.  Hahn has performed well for the Padres, but he's yet to face a lineup as potent as the one he'll see tonight.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Giants -112

Bottom Line: The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.  This trend should be extended given the edge they have on the mound with Hudson.  The veteran right-hander has a 2.61 ERA in 14 starts this season, and this number drops to 2.59 at home.  Cincy's Bailey has a 4.80 ERA on the season that rises to 5.47 on the road.  The Giants are 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days).  His clubs are a perfect 14-0 the last 2 seasons in his home starts when the total is 7 to 8.5.  His teams are 9-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus teams with a winning percentage of 51-54%.  The Reds are 4-12 in Bailey's last 16 starts as an underdog and 3-9 in his last 12 road starts versus a team with a winning record.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -139

Bottom Line: I'll gladly hop on Greinke at home at this price.  His clubs are 29-8 in his home starts over the last 3 seasons.  St. Louis has a low .311 on-base %, which dips to .304 on the road.  This bodes well for us as Greinke's clubs are 20-3 all-time in his home starts versus NL teams with an on-base % of .315 or worse.  He is also 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus St. Louis.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Braves -134

Bottom Line: Following yesterday's loss to Houston and 3 consecutive home losses to the Phillies last week, the Braves will be hungry.  They also catch Philadelphia at the perfect time.  The Phillies played a 14-inning game yesterday that taxed their bullpen.  Philly is 1-10 in home games after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons.  Plus, the Braves put the better starter on the mound with Teheran, who has given up just 1 run in 17 innings against the Phillies this season.  The Braves are 14-4 in Teheran's last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record, 7-1 in his last 8 road starts versus losing clubs, 9-2 in his last 11 division starts, 6-0 in his last 6 Friday starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  The Phillies are 5-13 in Kendrick's last 18 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Giants -114

Bottom Line: Yesterday's 4-0 win over San Diego gives the Giants some much-needed confidence and momentum heading into this series.  The Giants are an amazing 73-36 in home games after shutting out an opponent since 1997.  Vogelsong has been at his best at home where he has a 3.33 ERA.  The Giants are 8-3 in his last 11 starts and 14-6 in his last 20 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Giants are also 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts versus the Reds, and he's held them to 2 runs or less in each of his last 3 starts against them.  Leake has given up 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Reds are 4-8 in his last 12 starts.  He's lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Giants, given up 5 runs in each of the defeats.  Pound San Francisco.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -117

Bottom Line: Great price to back the Reds, who are 30-12 versus the Cubs the last 3 seasons, including 20-5 at Wrigley during this span. The Cubs won yesterday but have had trouble stringing together victories.  They are 33-64 the last 2 seasons after a win, including 9-25 during this stretch if the win came by 4 runs or more.  I don't trust Chicago's Edwin Jackson.  The Cubs have lost 10 of his 15 starts this season while he's compiled a 5.12 ERA.  They are 7-19 in his last 26 starts, 5-16 in his last 21 starts as an underdog and 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  He has a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds have already seen Jackson twice this year, and that's to their advantage now that they're in rhythm.  The Cubs haven't seen Latos since last season, and they don't want to see him (1.98 ERA in his L6 starts against them).  Bet the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -105

Bottom Line: The Cardinals 8-0 victory over the Rockies Monday handed Colorado a 7th straight defeat.  However, the Cards are just 4-13 the last 2 seasons following a win of 8 runs or more.  I fully expect the Rockies to get back in the win column tonight.  They are 16-4 in De La Rosa's home starts the last 2 seasons, and this mark tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 if they're up against a team with a winning record.  Additionally, Colorado is a jaw-dropping 18-2 the last 2 seasons in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss.  Pound the Rocks.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Rangers -119

Bottom Line: The Rangers have the clear advantage with Darvish getting the ball.  His 2.39 ERA through 13 starts is over a run lower than the ERA Shoemaker has posted through 6 starts.  The Rangers are 6-0 in Darvish's last 6 starts as a road favorite, 9-0 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days), 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts.  The Rangers are also 5-0 in Darvish's last 5 starts versus the Angels and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts against them.  Pound Texas.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* Blowout on Royals -168

Bottom Line: Royals have the bats going and should have no problem getting to Young (5.18 road ERA).  Vargas is in a groove, coming off 5 consecutive strong efforts.  Plus, he's 3-0 over his last 3 starts versus the Mariners and has given up a total of only 3 runs in those starts.  The M's are a soft 50-105 in their last 155 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The Royals are 10-2 in their last 12, 5-1 in their last 6 as a favorite and 6-0 in their last 6 in the 2nd game of a series.  Playing against American League road dogs of +150 or more that are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better has resulted in an 80-16 (83%) record the last 5 seasons if they are up against an AL opponent whose starting pitcher has a WHIP of 1.300 or better.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MLB Game of the Week on Cardinals -160

Bottom Line: The Cardinals lost the series opener, but they are an impressive 71-35 following a loss over the last 2 seasons.  They are also a dominant 22-5 in home games versus NL East foes during this span.  Burnett is a lousy 12-35 lifetime against the money line as a road dog of +125 to +175.  The Phillies have won their last 4, but Burnett has been a cooler, going 0-6 the last 2 seasons when taking the mound following 3 or more consecutive team wins.  It's been ugly for Burnett at Busch Stadium where he's given up at least 5 earned runs in 3 straight starts.  Garcia has a neat 2.86 ERA in 7 starts versus the Phillies, which comes as no surprise considering how rough left-handed starters have been on them.  Philadelphia is sticking just .225 versus southpaw starters this season. The Cardinals are 62-25 in their last 87 home games versus a right-handed starter and 44-18 in their last 62 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rays -150

Bottom Line: The Rays are 61-29 in their last 90 home games versus a team with a losing record while the Astros are 24-60 in their last 84 road games versus a team with a losing home record.  Archer has been a force at home, and the Rays are 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite.  Tampa Bay's record isn't as good as Houston's, but the Rays are the better club.  We saw that recently when the Rays took 2 of 3 in Houston.  The Astros are 18-45 in their last 63 versus American League East foes and 3-12 in their last 15 versus the Rays.  Pound Tampa Bay.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -126

Bottom Line: Felix Hernandez is having a special season, and I don't see the struggling Padres having an answer.  They are batting .214 on the season and have managed just 1 run in each of their last 3 games.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer 8 times during a 1-8 stretch.  They'll have a tough time getting anything off Hernandez, who has a 2.14 ERA on the season and a 1.21 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Mariners are 6-0 lifetime in his starts at pitcher-friendly Petco where he has a 1.54 ERA.  The Mariners are also 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 road starts, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games, 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter.  Andrew Cashner will have a tougher time slowing down a Seattle lineup that has been at its best on the road where it is averaging 4.7 runs while batting .258.  Cashner has a solid 3.29 ERA over his last 7 starts but is winless during this stretch as his light hitting club hasn't provided him with much support.  He was easily outdueled by Hernandez in San Diego last May.  The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy World Cup GAME OF THE WEEK on Spain -151

Bottom Line: I fully expect Spain to bounce back strong after getting embarrassed in its opener.  They have the superior squad and are not lacking in motivation. Slow starts in big tournaments are nothing new for this team.  They lost to Switzerland in their 2010 World Cup opener and went on to hoist the trophy.  This is a must-win game for the defending World Cup and European champs, and I'm confident they'll rise to the occasion.  Pound Spain.

5* Wiseguy AL *BEST BET* on A's -165

Bottom Line: The Rangers have been a bad investment on the road in this price range going 65-134 in their last 199 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200.  The A's, on the other hand, are 82-38 in their last 120 games as a home favorite of any price.  Texas scheduled starter Colby Lewis has an ERA of 6.02 at night and a 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Oakland's Drew Pomeranz has a 1.65 ERA at night and a 1.88 ERA in all starts.  The A's are 3-0 this season in Pomeranz's home starts.  The Rangers are 0-3 in Lewis' last 3 starts in Oakland.  The A's have seen Lewis a lot over the years, but the Rangers don't have much familiarity with Pomeranz.  Advantage Pomeranz.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 5 *BEST BET* on Heat +6

Bottom Line: The two-time defending champs won't go down without a fight.  I expect them to take San Antonio right down to the wire with a chance to pull out the victory in Game 5.  Miami is 29-13 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons, 13-3 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons and 24-9 ATS in road games off a loss of 20 points or more since 1996.  The Heat know they have to do a better job on the boards.  A big reason why they won Game 2 is because they won the rebounding battle.  They came up with just 35 boards last game but are 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games after a game of 35 rebounds or less.  They have won by an average of 12.9 points in this spot.  Lastly, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NL Run Line Game of the Month on Giants -1.5

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of +175 to +250 that have an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games has resulted in a 75-14 record since 1997 when they are up against an opponent starting a pitcher who has an ERA of less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts.  This system has won by an average of 2.6 runs.  Additionally, this system is 17-0 the last 5 seasons.  Playing against road underdogs of +175 to +250 that are batting .315 or better over their last 5 games are 50-6 since 1997 when they are up against an opponent starting a pitcher who has walked 1 batter or less in each of his last 2 outings.  This system has won by 2.7 runs on average, and it is a perfect 9-0 the last 5 seasons.  Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy AL Central GAME OF THE YEAR on Tigers -180

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Tigers are worth the price here.  They were upset yesterday but are 18-3 the last 2 seasons following a loss to a division foe as a favorite of -150 or higher.  They have bounced back to win by an average score of 5.7 to 2.7 in these games.  Additionally, home favorites of -150 or higher that are out for revenge for a loss as a home fave of -150 or higher are 45-7 since 1997 if they have a win percentage of 51-54% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 46% to less than 50%.  This system is a perfect 12-0 the last 5 seasons.  Detroit has a huge advantage on the pitcher's mound with Sanchez, who has a 2.24 ERA on the season and a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Deduno has a 5.25 ERA on the season and a 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Deduno also has a 6.83 ERA in 5 starts versus the Tigers while Sanchez has a 2.42 ERA in 8 starts versus the Twins.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NL *BEST BET* on Marlins -116

Bottom Line: Miami is crushing the ball at home this season, batting .279 and averaging 5.1 runs per game.  It's also crushing southpaw starters, batting .296 and scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game off them.  Going back to last season, the Marlins are 26-11 in their last 37 home games and 13-4 in their last 17 games versus a left-handed starter.  Pittsburgh's Locke has struggled, and the Bucs are only 2-8 in his last 10 starts. He's also struggled against the Marlins, who are batting .338 in the 3 games he's started against them.  Pittsburgh is just 7-15 in its last 22 games as a road underdog, and it is batting only .232 and averaging 3.4 runs per game on the road this season.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 2.49 ERA at home, and his teams are 7-2 in his last 9 home starts.  Pound the Marlins.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Heat -5

Bottom Line: Miami played well in Game 3, the Spurs just happened to set a Finals record for first-half shooting.  Because the Heat were playing catch-up from the start in Game 3 and because they know this is basically a must-win game, they will come out with the type of fury we are used to seeing from them following a loss.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, and they have an average winning margin of 9.6 points in these games.  Additionally, Miami is 13-2 ATS following any home loss over the last 2 seasons and has won by an average of 13.4 points in these games.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Miami lost its first home game against the Spurs in last year's Finals and then won its next three.  2 of those wins came by 7+ points.  Pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NL Non-division GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants -125

Bottom Line: The Giants have dropped the first 2 games of this 4-game set, but they are 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games and 6-0 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 in a series.  Washington has been a terrible underdog investment in this price range at 15-39 in its last 54 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Nationals are 0-4 in Roark's last 4 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Cain has had Washington's number in San Francisco.  The Giants are 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Nats, during which he's posted a 1.66 ERA.  Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 3 *BEST BET* on Heat -4.5

Bottom Line: The Heat are 40-9 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.  They are 29-5 at home in the playoffs since the start of the 2012 postseason and are 11-0 in their last 11 home playoff games going back to last year's Finals.  These 11 victories carry an 11.6-point average margin of victory.  The Spurs have shown some weakness on the road where they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9.  They've lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in these playoffs with the 3 defeats coming by 11, 9 and 13.  The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -122

Bottom Line: Porcello has dominated the White Sox.  The Tigers are 12-1 in his last 13 starts against them, including 6-0 in the last 6.  He allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of these 13 starts.  The Tigers are also 6-0 in Porcello's last 6 starts as a road favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Noesi is 3-16 with a 5.57 ERA in 28 career starts and has an ERA of 8.30 in 2 starts versus the Tigers.  The Tigers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month on Red Sox/Tigers UNDER 7.5

Bottom Line: I love the UNDER tonight with the way both these starters have been going.  Lackey has a 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts and Sanchez has an ERA of 1.21 over his last 3 outings.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 starts and 2-0 in Sanchez's last 2 starts.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 Sunday starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 8-0-1 in his last 9 starts versus American League Central opponents and 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 2-0-2 in Sanchez's last 4 starts when the opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and 2-0-2 in Sanchez's last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0-1 in Lackey's last 8 starts versus the Tigers and 2-0-1 in Sanchez's 3 career starts versus the Red Sox.  The UNDER is also 4-0 in umpire Adam Hamari's last 4 Sunday games behind home plate.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: The Spurs have finished OVER the total in back-to-back games.  The Heat are 4-0-1 OVER in their last five.  These trends are significant because teams that are off 2 or more consecutive OVERS and matched up against an opponent off 4 of more consecutive OVERS are on a 125-69 UNDERS run the last 5 seasons (note: this system excludes pushes).  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Spurs' last 16 games following a win of more than 10 points and 6-1 in the Heat's last 7 games when playing on 2 days' rest.  GM 1 would have gone under easily if the Spurs and Heat didn't combine for 25 made 3-point shots.  We hadn't seen more than 18 total 3-point makes in the previous 4 meetings so I definitely don't expect the long balls to fall so often in GM 2.  Additionally, Miami will place a big emphasis on the defensive end after allowing San Antonio to shoot 58.8% from the floor.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Reds -138

Bottom Line: The Phillies snapped a 6-game skid yesterday, but I'm not hesitating to fade them here as they are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.  The Reds hold the advantage on the pitcher's mound with Simon, whose home ERA is 1.64 runs lower than Hernandez's road mark.  The Reds are 6-0 in Simon's last 6 starts versus teams with a losing record and 8-0 in his last 8 starts versus NL teams with a batting average of .250 or lower.  Cincy hasn't swung the bat well during its 3-game slide.  However, first half of the season home favorites of -110 or higher that have a batting average of .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 76-37 the last 5 seasons.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Braves -110

Bottom Line: The Braves are a steal at this price considering the advantage they have on the mound with Teheran (1.83 on the season, 0.81 ERA L3 starts).  The Braves are 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 road starts versus a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 Friday starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts in game 1 of a series.  Arizona's McCarthy is having a disaster of a season (5.20 ERA on the season, 5.82 ERA L3 starts).  The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in McCarthy's last 8 home starts, 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus a team with a winning record,  0-4 in his last 4 Friday starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus National League East foes.  The Diamondbacks are 10-25 in their last 35 home games and 4-12 in their last 16 versus the Braves.  Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Spurs UNDER 199

Bottom Line: When the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, playing the UNDER on teams that scored 110 points or more in 2 straight games (San Antonio) has resulted in a 24-6 (80%) record since 1996 if they are matched up against an opponent that scored 60 points or more in the first half last game.  We've seen an average of only 182.9 total points scored in this situation.  This number is off the mark considering these teams have combined for 198 points or fewer at the end of regulation in 3 of the last 4 matchups.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals GM 1 PUNISHER on Spurs -4

Bottom Line: Last year's NBA Finals loss to the Heat is all the motivation the Spurs will need in Game 1.  San Antonio has been unbeatable at home in the playoffs.  It is 8-0 in its last 8 home games with a 21.5-point average margin of victory in these contests.  Each of these wins came by at least 6 points.  Additionally, the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.2 points.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Rockies -123

Bottom Line: Colorado's skid ends tonight with Nicasio on the hill.  The Rockies are 5-1 this season in his home starts, during which he has posted a 3.60 ERA.  Nicasio is a big-time competitor, and the Rockies are 7-1 the last 8 times he's gotten the start following a team loss. 3 of the last 4 times Arroyo has gotten the start at Coors Field, the result hasn't been good.  He's given up 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts there.  Nicasio, meanwhile, has held the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his last 4 home starts against them.  The Rockies are 19-6 lifetime under manager Weiss in home games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent.  Pound the Rockies.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cardinals -133

Bottom Line: The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and I expect this trend to continue with Wainwright toeing the rubber.  He's been at his best on the road where he has a 1.59 ERA in 7 starts.  He's also 4-0 with a 3.10 ERA lifetime in Kansas City.  The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 0-5 in their last 5 home games versus a right-handed starter.  Wainwright should have no problem outdueling Vargas, who has a 5.26 ERA at home. The Cards are 7-0 in their last 7 at Kauffman Stadium while batting .317 and averaging 7.4 runs.  The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Braves -153

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 versus the Braves, and I expect their struggles in the series to continue with Erasmo Ramirez on the mound.  The Mariners are 1-10 in Ramirez's last 11 starts, including 0-5 in his last 5.  They are 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-9 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 85-40 in their last 125 home games and 39-12 in their last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Scheduled starter Gavin Floyd has a 2.37 ERA on the season, a mark far superior to the 6.00 ERA Ramirez has posted. Additionally, Seattle is batting just .233 versus right-handed starters while Atlanta is batting .260 versus left-handed starters. Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Indians +108

Bottom Line: Boston has come storming back following a lengthy skid, but I have its 7-game win streak coming to an end tonight.  The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 home games and 39-14 in their last 53 home games versus clubs that have a losing record.  The Indians are also 8-2 in Masterson's last 10 home starts versus losing clubs, and they are 12-1 the last 2 seasons when he gets the ball following 2 or more consecutive teams wins.  The Red Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a favorite, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing mark and 0-6 in Lackey's last 6 road starts versus a losing club.  Pound Cleveland.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Year on Dodgers -167

Bottom Line: The Dodgers busted out the bats in a big way Saturday and now enter this Sunday night contest full of confidence and momentum.  They also have a huge edge on the mound with Greinke, who has a 2.18 ERA on the season and a 1.74 ERA over his last 3 starts. Greinke's clubs are 24-4 the last 3 seasons in his starts as a favorite of -150 or more.  The Dodgers are 10-1 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 17-3 in his last 20 home starts.  The Pirates have really struggled at the plate.  Their .313 on-base percentage is horrid, and the number dips to .292 on the road.  Teams that struggle to get on base have had little luck against Greinke.  His clubs are 20-2 lifetime at home versus NL teams with an on-base percentage .315 or worse.  Volquez has a 5.40 ERA on the road, and his clubs are 0-8 in his last 8 road starts.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Thunder -158

Bottom Line: I'm taking the Thunder on the money line to rule out any sort of backdoor ATS loss in a game I fully expect them to win.  OKC has complete confidence at home where it is on a 9-0 run versus the Spurs.  All 9 wins have come by at least 6 points.  The Spurs are 0-3 in their last 3 road games, losing these contests by 11.0 points on average.  The Thunder are 4-0 in their last 4 at home, winning these by 8.5 points on average. The home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with all 6 wins combing by 9 points or more.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Yankees -1.5 -108

Bottom Line: The Yankees fell 6-1 in the opener, but I'm expecting a big bounce back.  They are 9-1 this season when out for revenge for a loss where they scored 1 run or less and have won by an average of 3.0 runs in this spot.  They're also 9-1 this season after being held to 1 run or less and have won by 2.7 runs on average in this spot.  NY has the big edge on the mound with Tanaka.  They are 8-2 in his starts, during which he's posted a 2.29 ERA.  These 8 wins have come by an average of 4.0 runs.  Minnesota's Correia has a 6.34 ERA through 10 starts, and the Twins are 6-21 in his last 27 starts.  These 21 losses have come by an average of 4.0 runs.  Pound the Yanks on the run line.

5* Wiseguy GM 6 *BEST BET* on Pacers +7.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued on the road because of what happened in the first 2 games of this series in Miami.  They lost them both by 12 points, but they weren't facing elimination in either.  Teams staring elimination in the face tend to play with desperation.  We saw that from Indiana last game, and we saw it in their first round series against Atlanta.  After losing highly competitive series' to the Heat the past 2 seasons, Indiana made a concerted effort to get home court so that it would have the edge in another playoff series.  It knows its gets a Game 7 at home so it will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of getting an opportunity to play a Game 7 in its own building.  Indiana cannot stomach losing in the playoffs to the Heat 3 consecutive seasons so I'm expecting an outstanding effort.  Additionally, the Pacers have started to figure out the Heat.  After allowing Miami to shoot above 50% in the first 3 games, they have held the Heat to 46.4% and 45.3% in the last two.  Indiana has won or lost by fewer than 7.5 points in 6 of the last 9 meetings and 12 of the last 19.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Brewers -155

Bottom Line: I'm not shying away from the Brewers at this price against a Chicago club they have dominated.  The Brewers are an amazing 59-16 in their last 75 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  They are also 24-6 in their last 30 versus the Cubs at Miller Park.  Estrada has had Chicago's number, especially at home where the Brewers are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Cubs.  The Cubs are 37-81 in their last 118 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-25 in Wood's last 33 starts versus a team with a winning record.  Pound the Brew Crew.

5* Wiseguy NBA Western Conference Finals Total of the Year on Thunder/Spurs OVER 206

Bottom Line: The last 3 games of this series have come in under the number, and we are catching a very favorable number as a result, especially in San Antonio where these teams have averaged 211.3 points over the past 4 meetings.  The Spurs are 20-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders the last 3 seasons.  They are 18-9 OVER in home games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.  The Spurs are 6-2 OVER in their last 8 home games and 12-3 OVER in their last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Thunder are 5-0 OVER in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Line Mistake on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: We've seen 186 and 192 total points scored in the last 2 games of this series, but both of those were in Miami.  These teams are on a 4-1 UNDERS run in Indiana where they have combined to average just 176.4 points during this span.  Indiana is 19-7 UNDER in home games when the total is 180.0-189.5 this season.  We've seen an average of just 181.1 total points scored in these games.  Expect a slow-paced, defensive war in this elimination game.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -125

Bottom Line: The Yankees can't be trusted on the road with Kuroda on the mound.  They are 1-9 in his last 10 road starts.  The Cardinals are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 home games and 10-1 in Miller's last 11 starts as a favorite.  Miller has been lights out at home where he has a 2.19 ERA this season.  St. Louis is batting .269 at home while the Yankees are hitting .246 on the highway.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Thunder -140

Bottom Line: I fully expect the Thunder to cover the 2.5 points, but I'm taking them on the money line for insurance.  The return of Ibaka made a huge difference in Game 3, and his presence will be felt again.  Plus, coach Brooks' decision to play Reggie Jackson alongside Westbrook and to give Steven Adams extended minutes paid off as well.  We'll see more of the same tonight.  After getting Game 3, the Thunder will be lacking no confidence, especially in this building where they are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 versus the Spurs.  They have won these by an average of 10.9 points.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +6.5

Bottom Line: Indiana is a team of response, going 31-17 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road loss.  Recently, the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following any loss.  They have really responded well following embarrassing double-digit defeats.  In fact, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of 10 points or more and have won these contests by 6.0 points on average.  Prior to Game 3, these teams had traded wins in 13 consecutive games which shows how competitive this series has been.  We'll pound the Pacers catching points in this double-revenge spot.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER 184

Bottom Line: Indiana hasn't been at its best defensively in this series, and it knows it.  That's why it is currently facing a 2-1 series deficit.  After allowing the Heat to connect on 54.4% of their shots in Game 3, the Pacers will tighten the screws tonight.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Indiana's last 6 games following a loss and 7-3 in its last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  The Pacers are 34-14 UNDER on the season when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points.  We've seen an average of just 180.8 total points scored in these games.  Miami's defense has been solid the past 2 games, holding the Pacers to just 83 and 87 points.  The Heat are 23-11 UNDER in home games after holding foes to 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Spoelstra.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -2

Bottom Line: The Spurs have looked unstoppable thus far in the series, but Kevin Durant and company won't go down without a fight.  With the home crowd behind them, the Thunder will come storming back in Game 3.  OKC is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus the Spurs, winning these by 11.1 points on average.  The Spurs have been unconscious at home lately, but the road hasn't treated them nearly as well.  They are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Pound the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mets -118

Bottom Line: Wheeler outdueled Collmenter in Arizona earlier this season, and I expect him to do it again.  The Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 games versus teams that have won less than 40% of their games and 6-2 in Wheeler's last 8 starts versus team with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 3-10 in Collmenter's last 13 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus teams with a losing record.  The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.  Bet the Mets.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Month on Braves -125

Bottom Line: The Rockies aren't the same team away from home.  They are 1-5 in their last 6 road games, 2-10 in their last 12 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, 16-35 in their last 51 games as a road underdog and 21-44 in their last 65 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  The Braves are a phenomenal 83-37 in their last 120 home games.  They are even 11-1 the last 3 seasons versus NL clubs like Colorado that average 5.3 runs per game or more.  They are 8-1 the last 2 seasons versus NL clubs like the Rockies that have a team batting average of .275 or better.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last 9 versus the Rockies, including 4-0 in their last 4.  They are 38-14 in their last 52 home games versus the Rocks, including 6-0 in their last 6.  Lyles has a 5.19 ERA over his last 3 starts while Floyd has a 2.41 ERA in 3 starts this season.  Pound the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -140

Bottom Line: The Mets have been a horrible home underdog.  They are 19-57 in their last 76 games as a home underdog and 12-42 in their last 54 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  They are 1-6 in their last 7 overall, 1-10 in their last 11 games versus a right-handed starter and 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter.  I expect their struggles to continue against Greinke, who hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in 21 consecutive starts.  The Dodgers are 24-7 in Greinke's last 31 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games versus a left-handed starter, and the Mets are 1-6 in Niese's last 7 starts as a home underdog.  The Dodgers are 11-1 in the last 12 meetings, including 6-0 in the last 6.  The Dodgers are also 8-1 in the last road 9 meetings.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6

Bottom Line: The Spurs were able to take advantage of Ibaka being out in Game 1, but I expect the Thunder to make the necessary adjustments.  OKC went small in Game 1, but it will do so in shorter stretches tonight.  I expect Nick Collison and Steven Adams to be very active on the defensive end and on the glass.  Playing them together will allow the Thunder to match up better at the defensive end. We can't forget that the Thunder are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13.  The Thunder are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -138

Bottom Line: I'm confident the Heat will bounce back, and while I fully expect them to cover the 2.5 points, I'm protecting my investment by taking them on the money line at what I consider to be a pretty nice price.  Every point counts, especially this time of year.  The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points.  They are also 26-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent.  The Pacers are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games overall, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS off an upset win as a home dog under coach Vogel, and it has lost by an average of 8.8 points in this spot.  When the line is +3 to -3, playing against road teams that went over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game has resulted in a 37-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a winning team.  This system tightens up to 24-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS this season.  Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185

Bottom Line: Neither team played much defense in Game 1, as evidenced by each squad shooting 51+% from the floor.  I expect a huge commitment on the defensive end from both teams here.  That's been the norm in this matchup as we saw combined scores of 184, 167, 191, 174, 175, 168 and 169 in the 7 meetings prior to Game 1.  The Pacers are 18-7 UNDER this season in home games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points.  Just 181.6 points were scored on average in these games.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5

Bottom Line: The Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games with these wins coming by 23, 24, 17 and 22 points.  They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a cover.  San Antonio is 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games against winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.  It has defeated these teams by an average of 10.6 points.  The Spurs lost all 4 regular-season meetings, but Ibaka was a huge part of OKCs success in those games, especially on the defensive end.  Without Ibaka patrolling the paint, Parker and San Antonio's slashers will have a much easier time getting to the rim.  Additionally, getting swept will only add to San Antonio's level of focus in Game 1.  The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Pound the Spurs.

5* Wiseguy GM1 *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5

Bottom Line: The Pacers are being undervalued at home because they have looked vulnerable at times in the past two rounds.  However, we can't forget that basketball is all about matchups, and Indiana has given the Heat big problems with its size and toughness.  The Pacers looked complacent at times down the stretch of the regular season and in the first two rounds, but you can bet they won't in this series.  They knew all along the road to a championship goes through Miami, and they'll be highly focused and motivated after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Heat the past two seasons.  I'll gladly take the points considering how dominant the home team has been in this matchup.  The home side is on a perfect 8-0 run, and Indiana's home wins during this span have come by an average of 7.0 points.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Nationals -150

Bottom Line: Gio Gonzalez has been lights out at home where he has a 1.50 ERA on the season.  The Nats are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and have won these by 2.25 runs on average.  The Mets have managed only 28 home runs on the season, and Gonzo has abused poor power teams.  The Nationals are 11-0 the last 3 seasons in his starts versus clubs that average 0.75 home runs per game or less, and they have won these games by an average of 4.0 runs.  The Mets are among the worst offensive teams in baseball with a .229 average.  They're batting .152 during their current 3-game skid.  The Nats are 7-0 in Gonzo's last 7 starts versus the Mets, and he has posted a 1.61 ERA in these games, which Washington has won by 5.0 runs on average.  The Nats are 9-0 in their last 9 versus the Mets and have won these by 4.0 runs on average.  Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Royals -115

Bottom Line: The Royals are a good value at this price at home with Guthrie on the mound.  The Royals are 20-6 in his last 26 home starts and 15-2 in his last 17 home starts versus a team with a winning record.  Guthrie is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.89 in 3 starts versus his former club, and he has limited Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones and Manny Machado to a combined 11 for 88 (.125).  Tillman is 1-2 with an ERA of 9.00 on 4 starts versus the Royals.  Pound Kansas City.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4.5

Bottom Line: Washington can't trusted laying this many points at home against an Indiana squad that will be highly motivated after laying an egg in Game 5.  The Wizards are 11-20 ATS as a home favorite this season and 13-26 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons.  The Wizards have won by only 0.4 points on average in these 39 instances.  The Pacers are 19-9 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and have won these by an average of 0.9 points.  The Pacers have quietly won 4 in a row SU and ATS on the road, and I expect this trend to continue.  Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -104

Bottom Line: We are getting Toronto at a fantastic price with southpaw J.A. Happ on the hill considering how much the Indians struggle versus left-handed starters.  Cleveland is batting a dismal .208 versus lefty starters this season and is 0-7 in its last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter.  Cleveland's Salazar hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where the Indians are 0-4 in his last 4 starts.  He has a 6.45 ERA in 3 road starts this season.  Toronto should be able to get to him at home where they are averaging 5.4 runs per game.  Pound the Blue Jays.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Nets/Heat UNDER 189

Bottom Line: I fully expect to see a half-court, grind-it-out defensive battle in Game 5.  The Nets lost Game 4 as they allowed Miami to shoot 52.9% from the field, and they know they must tighten the screws if they are going to live to see another day.  I expect a very gritty performance from them.  I also expect to see Miami's killer instinct kick in.  The Heat want to end the series tonight so they can have a rest advantage against their Conference Finals foe.  They have held Brooklyn below 44% shooting 2 of the last 3 games, and they'll be dialed in defensively with a chance to punch their Conference Finals ticket.  These teams have finished UNDER the total in 6 of their last 7 meetings in Miami while combining for an average of 184 total points in these matchups so we are getting a great number here.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -113

Bottom Line: The Padres are 6-10 on the road where they are batting a dismal .201.  They are 0-4 in Cashner's last 4 starts (4.50 ERA L3 starts) and 0-3 in his road starts this season (5.00 ERA in these).  The Padres have failed to score the last 3 times Cashner has gotten the ball.  They are 2-8 in his last 10 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog.  San Diego lost 7-2 in Cincinnati last season in Cashner's lone start versus the Reds.  He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings in the start.  The Reds have been strong at home where they are 8-3 in their last 11.  Leake has also been the victim of poor run support, but he has been sharper than Cashner.  He has a 3.07 ERA at home and a 3.27 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The Reds are 5-2 in Leake's last 7 home starts.  Leake faced the Padres twice last season and only allowed 1 earned run in 14 innings.  The Padres are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings and 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.  Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pacers UNDER 181

Bottom Line: When the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points, plays UNDER on home teams with a winning percentage of 60-75% that are off 2 or more consecutive road wins has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 18 seasons.  We've seen just 179.4 total points scored in these games on average.  Indiana is 28-19 UNDER at home this season, including 17-6 UNDER at home when the total line is between 180 and 189.5 points.  Washington is 28-15 UNDER the last 3 seasons in road games when playing with double revenge.  The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Indiana.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs "Total" Blowout on Spurs/Blazers UNDER 211

Bottom Line: Each of the first 3 games of this series have gone over the totals, and the Spurs have finished over the number in 6 straight going back to their first round series.  We are getting an excellent number here as a result, especially since the first 2 games of this series were below and at this number.  Playing the UNDER on any team after 3 or more consecutive overs that is up against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive overs has resulted in a 73-33 record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 210, playing the UNDER on any team that has given up 110 points or more in 3 consecutive games and is coming off a game with a combined score of 205 points or more has resulted in a 35-15 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  When the total is greater than or equal to 200, playing the UNDER on road teams that are off a win of 15 points or more and are up against an opponent off a loss of 15 points or more has resulted in a 36-12 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, the Spurs are 17-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Wizards OVER 180

Bottom Line: The Wizards are 24-10 OVER the last 18 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss of 20 points or more.  We have seen an average of 202 total points scored in these games.  Washington is also 18-6 OVER after 2 straight games where both it and its opponent scored 90 points or less the last 18 seasons.  We've seen 196.8 total points scored on average in these contests.  Indiana is 21-8 OVER in road games off a road win under coach Vogel, and we've seen an average of 195 total points in these games. The Wizards let the Pacers dictate a slow pace the last 2 games, and it cost them.  Washington had a lot of success pushing the ball against the Bulls in its opening series, and it will look to do that here because it knows without a doubt that doing so gives it the best chance to win.  An increased tempo greatly favors the OVER. Pound the OVER.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wizards -4.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that average 92-98 ppg and have held their opponent to 90 points or less in 2 straight games has resulted in a 43-12 ATS record the last 18 seasons if they are up against a team that allows 98-102 ppg.  This system tightens up to 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Indiana is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 90 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Vogel.  It has lost these contests by an average of 12.6 points.  The Wizards are 29-11 ATS the last 2 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent.  Pound the Wizards.

5* Wiseguy GM4 *BEST BET* on Clippers -4.5

Bottom Line: We'll lay the points with the Clippers at home in this bounce-back spot behind some compelling evidence.  The Clippers are 16-3 ATS this season when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent.  They have won by an average of 13.0 points in these games.  The Clipps are also 14-2 ATS this season following an upset defeat and have won these contests by an average of 12.9 points.  Lastly, LA is 12-3 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.  It has won by an average of 14.2 points in this spot.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Nets +1.5

Bottom Line: The Nets are down 0-2, but they aren't about to go down without a fight.  I fully expect this experienced group to bounce back at home in Game 3.  The Nets are 18-3 at home since February.  Plus, they are 10-1 ATS this season in home games when playing with double revenge and have won these games by an average of 8.5 points.  They are also a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight losses of 10 points or more and have won these contests by an average of 12.2 points.  Pound Brooklyn.