Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Lakers UNDER 215

Bottom Line: The Lakers have gone over the total in each of their last 3 games with at least 218 total points scored in each. And, these teams combined for 218 total points when they met last week. Yet, odds makers have set a total 3 points lower, which means they're begging for action on the over. We won't bite. When the total is 210 or higher, playing the UNDER on teams like the Lakers that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are off a road loss of 20 points or more has resulted in an 83-43 (66%) record since 1996. Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5

Bottom Line: I like the 76ers at home catching nearly double digits against a Houston team that's riding high from a 3-0 start. With the Heat, Spurs and Warriors this week, the Rockets will have a tough time focusing on the task at hand. Besides, home court has been huge in this matchup with the home side going 6-0 ATS in the last 6. Pound Philly.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Trailblazers -3.5

Bottom Line: It looks like the Warriors will again be without David Lee, and it finally hurts them here. Lee will be missed against a Portland team that will expose the Warriors down low with Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman. Bogut is a good interior defender, but he can't handle all these guys on his own, which is basically what is being asked of him tonight. The Blazers should also be the fresher team as they had yesterday off while the Warriors played last night and traveled. Pound Portland.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: The Jets are a much better football team than their 1-7 record suggests, but it's that 1-7 record that is allowing us to catch a great number. The Jets played Green Bay to a 7-point game on the road and led that game 21-3. They've also played Detroit to a 7-point game, New England to a 2-point game and would have played Denver to a 7-point game had it not been for a pick-six at the end. This is a game the Jets have a good shot to win straight up because the strength of their defense matches up well with the strength of the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rely heavily on their running attack, but it will be tough sledding against a New York stop unit that holds opponents to 85.4 ypg on the ground. Road dogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 66-33 ATS since 1983. Week 9 or later underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 91-44 ATS since 1983. November road dogs or pickems off 5 or more consecutive defeats are 42-14 ATS since 1983. Pound the Jets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +2

Bottom Line: Tough spot for Phoenix as it hits the road for the first time this season following a huge win over the Spurs. This one has letdown written all over it for the Suns, who are 0-2 in their last 2 versus the Jazz and 1-4 in their last 4 in Utah. They are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and have dropped 23 of 35 in Salt Lake City. Pound Utah.
 

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico State +7.5

Bottom Line: We'll back New Mexico State at home off a bye against a Texas State team that will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Georgia Southern. In a game between teams with 8 of more returning offensive starters, taking home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outgained by 125 or more total yards last game has resulted in a 46-17 ATS record since 1992. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Pound the Aggies.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland +4

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Penn State following last week's tough-to-swallow OT loss to Ohio State. This is a big bounce-back spot for Maryland after getting kicked at Wisconsin last week. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after being held to 100 rushing yards or less last game. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game, after gaining 2 or less rushing yards per attempt last game, has resulted in a 42-15 ATS record since 1992. This system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy NBA Game of the Week on Kings +6

Bottom Line: The Kings were horrible in their opener, shooting just 30.8% from the field and committing 26 turnovers. We're getting a great number here because of it, and rest assured they'll put forth a much better effort tonight. The Kings won 123-119 as a 5-point dog the last time Portland visited. And, they lost by a single point in Portland in the most recent meeting so I'll gladly take the points here. The Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Sacramento.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* Game of the Month on Tulane +6.5

Bottom Line: Tulane is 12-4 ATS at home under coach Johnson, including 6-1 ATS in its last 7 at Yulman Stadium. Playing home teams with a +/- 40 rushing ypg margin has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons provided they've held their last 2 opponents to 100 yards or fewer on the ground and are playing a team that has been outrushed by an average of 50 ypg or more on the season. Pound Tulane.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +13

Bottom Line: The Knicks were smoked last night by a Chicago Bulls team that can really defend. I expect them to shoot the basketball much better tonight. The Cavs are loaded with talent, but it will take them some time to jell on both ends of the floor. The Knicks are a fantastic 14-5 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a loss greater than 10 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +4.5

Bottom Line: I think some have forgotten just how good a coach Bobby Petrino is. Having had a bye week to prepare, he and his coaching staff will have their No. 1 ranked defense ready for the Noles. Petrino's college teams are 39-17 ATS all-time at home, including 29-12 ATS after the first month of the season and 23-7 ATS in the second half of the season. The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Florida State has had a few really close calls this season and will have a tough time making it out of this one alive. Pound the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +4

Bottom Line: This is a game the Kings have been looking forward to. They were embarrassed 102-69 at Golden State last April and will be highly motivated as a result. Sacramento is 24-11 in its last 35 home games versus the Warriors, and it has won or lost by fewer than 4 points in 7 of its last 10 home games in the series. Pound the Kings.

5* Wiseguy World Series Game 7 *BEST BET* on Royals -134

Bottom Line: Home field in Game 7 of the World Series has been huge. Home teams are on a 9-0 run in Game 7 of the World Series. The Royals are 6-1 at home in the playoffs and 7-1 in their last 8 home games versus the Giants. Guthrie is in better form than Hudson. The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts while he's allowed only 4 earned runs in 30 1-3 innings. The Giants are 2-6 in Hudson's last 8 starts, during which he's given up 29 earned runs in 50 innings. Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy World Series Game 6 *BEST BET* on Royals -137

Bottom Line: I like the Royals at home in this do-or-die game because they have completely owned Peavy in this ballpark. The former Cy Young winner has looked anything but at Kauffman where his teams are 0-6 in his last 6 starts while being tagged for at least 4 runs in the last 4. The Royals are 6-0 in Ventura's last 6 starts. They are also a perfect 6-0 in his starts in the 2nd half of this season versus teams that have a winning record. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite while the Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs +4.5

Bottom Line: Dallas has been an awesome road play under coach Carlisle and is 51-26 ATS all-time under his watch in road games played in the first half of the season. It is 72-40 ATS under Carlisle as a road underdog of 6 points or less, including 24-11 ATS in this role the past 2 seasons. For the Spurs, opening night will be about honoring last season's achievement. For the Mavs, it will be about revenge. They pushed the Spurs to the limit in last season's playoffs and will be out for a little payback. Pound the Mavericks.

5* Wiseguy MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins +10.5

Bottom Line: The Redskins picked up a much-needed win last week and carry that momentum into Dallas tonight. With a showdown against 6-1 Arizona on deck, the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot. Dallas has been an awful investment against losing teams at 8-20 ATS in the last 28. It is even 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Cowboys are an unreliable 11-23 ATS as a favorite under Jason Garrett, including 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has been the play in the series as it is on a 7-1 ATS run. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run in Dallas. This is a lot of points for the 7th-ranked defense in the league to be catching. I like Washington to give the Cowboys a game tonight. Pound the Redskins.

5* Wiseguy SNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -128

Bottom Line: The Saints have won 10 straight inside the Superdome and are in great position to extend their streak Sunday night. The Green Bay defense has really struggled on the road where it is giving up an average of 6 yards per play. That doesn't bode well for the Packers as the Saints are 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when they gain an average of 6 or more yards per game. They have won these 7 games by 20.6 points on average. A New Orleans offense that ranks 2nd in the league should be able to take advantage. Pound the Saints.

5* Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +1

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't lost in their last 12 regular-season home games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests going back further. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with winning road records, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a game where they finished under the total and 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Playing against favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are coming off covers as a favorite in their last 2 games. Playing against road teams that are off a win of 21 points or more has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game. Home underdogs or pickems that average 5.4 yards per play or more are 35-11 ATS since 1983 if they've given up 400 total yards or more in their last 2 games. Pound Cincinnati.

5* Wiseguy World Series GM 4 *BEST BET* on Giants -124

Bottom Line: The Giants are down in the series, but they aren't about to hit the panic button with the next 2 at home. The Giants trailed 3-2 in the 2012 NLCS and went on to win the World Series. They are in great hands with Vogelsong, who has a 2.16 ERA in 6 career postseason starts. The Giants are 6-0 in these. He has a 0.00 ERA in 1 World Series start so I don't think this moment will be too big for him. Vargas hadn't made a postseason start prior to this year. He's pitched well in his first 2 postseason starts, but the stakes have been raised. Plus, the Giants got a look at him in August. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 playoff home games and 6-1 in their last 7 World Series home games. Pound the Giants.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +14.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Nittany Lions. Off back-to-back losses, they will be focused. Furthermore, they were hammered 63-14 by Ohio State last season - the worst loss in program history since 1899. Penn State's 41 returning lettermen will be out for payback. The fact they have had an extra week to prepare only adds value to this play. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Penn State is 22-10 ATS in home games off a road loss since 1992. Coach James Franklin's teams are 9-1 ATS lifetime in home games played on a grass field. Bet Penn State.

5* WISEGUY 2014 CFB GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State pk

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home where they are 4-0 this season with an 18.5-point average margin of victory. Oklahoma State took it on the chin big time at TCU last week and, in case that loss isn't enough motivation, it was upset at West Virginia last season. The Cowboys are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a defeat of 21 points or more in conference play. WVU won't bring the same level of motivation into this one following last week's upset win over Baylor. The Cowboys are on a 17-4 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Oklahoma State has been about as reliable as it comes at Boone Pickens, where it has just 4 losses since 2010. It is 30-4 in its last 34 at home, including 24-2 in its last 26. Pound Oklahoma State.
 

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cincinnati -10

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Cincinnati, which was upset at South Florida last season. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 350-241 but were killed by 4 turnovers. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 at home versus the Bulls with all 4 victories coming by at least 14 points. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points has resulted in a 43-18 ATS record since 1992 if they give up 440 ypg or more and are playing a team that allows 390 to 440 ypg. Pound Cincy.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami pk

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing road teams with a win percentage between 51-60% has resulted in a 22-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Miami has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be out for some serious revenge following last season's 42-24 home loss to the Hokies. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in road games the last 22 seasons versus teams with a win percentage between 51-60%. The Canes are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hokies went down at Pitt last week as they gave up 210 yards on the ground. They are missing D-tackle Luther Maddy in the trenches and have been dealt another blow with leading tackler Chase Williams expected to miss this game with a knee injury. Without those two, Tech will have a tough time slowing down Duke Johnson and a Miami running game that has averaged 215 yards over its last 3 games. The Hokies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy 2014 World Series Game of the Year on Royals -111

Bottom Line: Peavy has a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts against the Royals - his worst among any team he's faced more than 6 times. He's been even worse at Kauffman Stadium, where he has a 6.42 ERA in 7 career starts. His clubs are 0-5 in his last 5 starts there. Butler and Escobar have especially had his number. Butler is 14 for 33 lifetime against the right-hander and Escobar is 9 for 22. It's also worth noting that Peavy has a 7.03 career ERA in the postseason. Ventura has one of the best fastballs in baseball and a nasty curve. Making matters worse for the Giants, they haven't seen it (Ventura will be making his first start against San Francisco). The Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Pound Kansas City.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +16.5

Bottom Line: Ole Miss is off back-to-back huge wins over Alabama and Texas A&M and has covered the spread in every game this season. As a result, odds makers have overinflated the line, giving us a great opportunity to strike with Tennessee. The Vols have played some great competition, stepping on the field with Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. It lost to Georgia and Florida by 4 points combined, and while Florida might not be at the level of Ole Miss this season, Georgia is. The Tennessee defense has been extremely impressive, holding foes to 19.2 points and 316.3 ypg. I think the Vols will be solid enough defensively to keep this one within the number. Tennessee is a reliable 29-12 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 (typically conference contests) since 1992. Additionally, road teams that have held their opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 100-57 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Tennessee.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland -4.5

Bottom Line: Maryland was crushed by 28 at home in its last game, which means it went into its bye week hungry. Teams tend to respond following lopsided losses, especially at home, and Maryland is 21-8 ATS the last 22 seasons in home games after a defeat of 17 or more points. Iowa blew out Indiana last Saturday but was fortunate to do so. It had a week to prepare for Indiana's running attack and allowed the Hoosiers to rack up 316 yards on the ground. It was outgained for the game, and I think the Hawkeyes were in trouble if Sudfeld (QB) isn't lost to injury. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Maryland didn't run the football well at all against Ohio State, and you can bet that didn't set well with coach Edsall. His teams are 18-6 ATS all-time after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. Pound Maryland.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Houston -7

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points that are off two straight wins against conference opponents and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win has resulted in a 58-20 (74%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points on average and have lost by 12.4 points on average. Houston returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Temple by 9 points. That game was even more lopsided than the score indicates as the Cougars outgained the Owls 524-300. While the Owls are improved, they haven't closed the gap enough to keeps this one within the number. Pound Houston.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10

Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -110

Bottom Line: The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh, which has lost its last three. At home and with extra time to regroup, I expect the Panthers to get back in the win column. Pitt has been a terrific bounce-back team (in terms of the number), going 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 following a loss. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 following a win. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at Pittsburgh. Pound the Panthers.

5* Wiseguy NLCS *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals -102

Bottom Line: The Giants can't be trusted with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 3-7 in his last 10 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.11 in 11 career starts against the Red Birds and has given up 11 runs in his last 3 starts against them spanning 18 2-3 innings. Vogelsong has also allowed 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts while Miller has limited foes to 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 8 outings. Miller has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 and 1 run or none in 4 of his last 6. The Cards are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and 2-0 in 2 career starts versus the Giants, during which he's given up only 2 runs in 12 1-3 innings. Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-3 but have played a tough schedule with games at Ole Miss and Boise State. They were the preseason pick of most to win the Sun Belt with 17 starters back. They are off to a 1-0 start in the league, but they have no time to relax as Georgia Southern is already 4-0 in conference play. Lafayette won last season's battle 48-24 while outgaining the Bobcats 572-196. Normally, I would look to play the revenge angle here, but I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to be ready after narrowly escaping Georgia State last time out. Texas State is 3-2 and averaging 38.6 ppg but hasn't played the same caliber of opponents as Lafayette. Besides, the Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 31 ppg or more under coach Hudspeth, and they have won these games by an average of 12.3 points. Pound ULL.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4

Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams.

5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland.

5* Wiseguy ACC Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -9.5

Bottom Line: Louisville doesn't have enough offense to keep this one within the number. In 3 road games, the Cardinals are averaging only 323 ypg. They've been bailed out by their defense, but it won't be able to hold down a Clemson offense that's averaging 585 ypg at home. Louisville's defense currently ranks #1 in the nation, but it is yet to face a team with an explosive passing attack. Expect to see several big plays out of the Tigers with no answer from Louisville against Clemson's Top 10 defense. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning record. Clemson is 9-0 ATS lifetime at home under Dabo Swinney when laying 7.5 to 14 points and has won by an average of 23.0 points in these games. Pound Clemson.

5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UNLV +10

Bottom Line: The UNLV Rebels fit into a powerful system tonight. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allow 16 ppg or more in the 1st half and are off 2 or more consecutive unders has resulted in a 71-37 ATS record since 1992. Teams fitting theses parameters have lost on average but only by 4.3 points. Additionally, the Fresno State Bulldogs are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Friday night contests. The Rebels, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference matchups. The Bulldogs have a big showdown with Boise State up next and will look right past a UNLV squad that has dropped 4 straight. The Rebels have lost by more than 10 points just 2 times in their last 16 home games. That's a rock solid trend I'll gladly get behind. Pound UNLV.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on BYU +3

Bottom Line: Even with starting QB Taysom Hill out, BYU is a better football team than Central Florida. Backup QB Christian Stewart struggled last week, but I'm confident he'll be much better after getting 1st team snaps for 5 days. He's a better player than UCF starting QB Justin Holman, who was just 6 of 18 for 101 yards versus Houston last week. The Knights are relying heavily on their run game but won't be able to do so here against a BYU stop unit that is holding foes under the century mark on the ground. UCF has done a good job against the run too but is overmatched here, just like it was against Mizzou when it allowed over 5 ypc. BYU is a dominant 8-1 ATS off a loss the last 3 seasons, winning by 22.2 points on average in these games. Pound the Cougars.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +8

Bottom Line: The Redskins are a better team than their record leads you to believe, and I expect them to respond after getting spanked by the Giants in their last game. Washington boasts a Top 10 offense and defense, ranking 4th in the NFL with 415.2 ypg and 9th with 324.2 ypg allowed. The Redskins are also one of the top pass rushing teams in the league. They are 11-4 all-time in regular-season matchups with Seattle, including 6-0 in the last 6. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that give up 24 ppg or more and are off a loss of 28 points or more are 68-34 ATS since 1983. This system is 1-0 ATS this season, 10-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, 15-5 ATS the last 5 and 33-12 ATS the last 10. Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Game of the Year on Bills +7.5

Bottom Line: The Bills are being greatly undervalued because of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defense played well in both games, but the Bills were let down by QB play. Detroit's back-to-back SU and ATS wins also plays into us catching a great number. The Bills will benefit from the insertion of Orton, who is a more accurate passer than Manuel and will be smarter with the football. His experience works in our favor in this matchup. This is too many points for Buffalo to be catching given how good it has been defensively. It ranks 7th in the league in scoring defense with 18.8 ppg allowed and 10th in total defense with 337.8 ypg allowed. I also like Buffalo to be able to run the football. The Lions hadn't been tested on the ground until last week when the Jets rushed for 132 yards on nearly 5 ypc. I expect the Bills, who average 122.2 ypg on the ground, to establish the run Sunday after getting away from their ground game the past couple weeks. If Detroit wants to stack the box, Orton has proven he can make teams pay. The Bills are 10-1 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons and have won these by an average of 6.9 points. Pound Buffalo.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Year on Auburn -7.5

Bottom Line: With this line, the books are begging for action on LSU, which handed Auburn its only defeat of the 2013 regular season. We won't take the bait. That loss is all the motivation Auburn will need Saturday. Under Malzahn, Auburn is 7-0 ATS versus teams that have a winning record, 6-0 ATS versus teams with a win percentage above 75%, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 34 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS versus teams that average 450 ypg or more, 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt and 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game. Auburn is also 9-0 ATS in its last 9 conference games. Pound Auburn.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Diego State +3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, road teams the average 16.0 ppg or more in the 1st half that are off a game that went under the total are 56-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 34-9 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Aztecs are an awesome 15-4 straight up (13-6 ATS) in their last 19 conference contests. They'll be out for some serious revenge here after losing last season's battle in OT despite outgaining the Bulldogs by 166 total yards. Odds makers expected the Aztecs to have their revenge by opening them as the 1.5-point favorite. The line has gone the other way with Quinn Kaehler expected to miss, but his absence doesn't warrant that big of a swing. Pound San Diego State as they win this game with their running attack and defense.

5* Wiseguy MLB Playoffs Game of the Week on Angels -146

Bottom Line: I fully expect LA to bounce back at home where it is 41-18 in its last 59. The Royals are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, 2-5 in their last 7 game 2's of a series and 2-7 in their last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 game 2's of a series. Ventura has had a great season for the Royals, but Shoemaker has been a little bit better. His 2.06 home ERA is over a run lower than Ventura's road mark. The Angels are 7-0 in Shoemaker's last 7 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts in the 2nd game of a series. Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy NFC North Total of the Month on Vikings/Packers UNDER 48.5

Bottom Line: I love the UNDER in tonight's NFL matchup. Plays on the UNDER when the total if 42.5-49 points in a matchup of average offensive teams that score 18-23 ppg after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 120-63 record since 1983. The Green Bay defense is trending in the right direction, giving up 19 and 17 points the last 2 weeks against much more explosive offensive teams (Lions and Bears). Minnesota scored 41 last week but that was against an Atlanta defense that is among the worst in the NFL. Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots -2.5

Bottom Line: The Patriots are showing value laying less than a field goal at Arrowhead where the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. Kansas City has lost their last 4 at home straight up by an average of 10.5 points. New England has yet to get its offense going the way we are used to seeing, but I like its chances of doing so against a KC defense that has been very mediocre thus far. The KC offense has struggled every bit as much as New England's offensive unit, and it will have a tough time getting much of anything against a New England defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (272.7). Playing road teams with a +3 to +7 ppg differential that are up against a team with a +3 to -3 ppg differential, provided the road team has allowed 17 points or less in its last 2 games, has resulted in a 23-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Pound the Pats.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Jets +2

Bottom Line: The Lions are an ugly 8-22 ATS as road chalk the last 22 years, including 4-13 ATS in this as a road fave of 3 points or less. The Jets 16-6 ATS after playing on Monday night football since 1992 and 18-4 ATS in home games off a home loss since 1992. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy NFC North Game of the Year on Packers -118

Bottom Line: Green Bay is in a foul mood following a 1-2 start, and I expect it to come storming back against a Chicago Bears team it has owned.  Green Bay is 32-13 versus the Bears since 1992 and 18-5 in Chicago during this span. Chicago is 0-6 ATS under Trestman in home games when playing with 6 or less days' rest. It is also 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.  Green Bay is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 at Soldier Field.  Pound the Packers.

5* Wiseguy ACC Coastal Game of the Year on Miami -7

Bottom Line: This is a game I had circled before the season began, and Miami's loss at Nebraska last week adds even more value to this play. Prior to last season's loss at Duke, the Hurricanes were 8-0 against the Blue Devils since joining the ACC. These 8 wins came by an average of 19.1 points. You can bet the Hurricanes haven't forgotten about the 18-point butt-kicking they received at Duke last year, and they'll be out for some serious payback. Miami has been extremely reliable at home where it is 10-1 in its last 11 with the 10 wins coming by an average of 24.4 points. Miami is 4-0 lifetime in home conference contests versus Duke, winning them by 27 ppg. Each of these 4 have come by double digits. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Month on Red Sox -108

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Yankees following last night's Cinderella ending for Jeter. I just don't see New York being in this one mentally after that. With the postseason not a possibility, the Yanks would have rather ended the season after last night's win. Playing home teams that have been outscored by 0.5 runs per game or more on the season and are off 2 straight wins of 4 runs or more, has resulted in a 31-15 record the last 5 seasons. Pound Bean Town.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA -4

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bruins, who allowed ASU to clinch the Pac-12 South on their turf last season. ASU returns just 8 starters from last year's squad while UCLA brings back 17. It looks like Hundley will go for the Bruins, but Kelly will not be under center for the Sun Devils. Regardless if Hundley plays, UCLA has edges at other positions all over the field. The Bruins have not played to their potential yet this season but should have no problem getting up for this game. Additionally, UCLA's first 3 foes have provided a much bigger test than ASU's. Facing Virginia and Texas does a lot more to prepare a team than facing New Mexico and Colorado. The Bruins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Pound UCLA.

5* Wiseuy MLB *BEST BET* on Braves -117

Bottom Line: After watching Pittsburgh celebrate clinching a playoff spot on their field, I expect the Braves to show some fire tonight.  While the Pirates still have some things left to play, it's hard to bounce back mentally following such an emotional victory. Teheran has been dominant at home where he has posted a 2.04 ERA. That mark is far superior to the 3.74 mark Locke has posted on the road. The Braves are 9-3 in Teheran's last 12 home starts versus teams with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus National League Central clubs.  The Pirates are 2-5 in Locke's last 7 road starts, 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in Atlanta. The Braves are 2-0 in Teheran's 2 career starts versus Pittsburgh, during which he's posted a 2.77 ERA. The Pirates are 0-2 in Locke's last 2 starts versus the Braves, during which he's allowed 7 runs in 10 1-3 innings. Bet the Braves.

5* Wiseguy MNF Game of the Month on Jets -2.5

Bottom Line: I love the Jets at home tonight as I expect them to run all over a Bears defense that ranks next to last in the league with 160 rushing yards allowed per game.  The Jets have been the best rushing team in the NFL thus far, racking up 170 yards per game on the ground.  Additionally, New York is the better defensive team.  It ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense with only 274 yards per game allowed.  The Jets blew a big lead in Green Bay last week and will be hungry as a result.  I think it will be a tough encore for the Bears going on the road for a second straight week, especially after last week's emotional victory over the 49ers.  That win wasn't nearly as impressive as it looks considering the Bears were outgained by 145 yards.  The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS in road games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992 and 4-16 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better since 1992.  Pound the Jets.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -161

Bottom Line: Look for Detroit to bounce back at home following Sunday's loss to the Royals.  The White Sox are an ugly 31-77 in their last 108 road games versus a team with a winning record.  The White Sox are also 10-27 in the last 37 meetings in Detroit.  The Tigers are 8-0 in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 4-0 in their last 4 series openers and 4-0 in Lobstein's 4 career starts.  Detroit has seen Bassit, and it pounded him.  Lobstein is making his first start versus Chicago and should benefit from facing batters that aren't at all familiar with his stuff.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy NFL Oddsmaker Error Game of the Year on Giants +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here.  The Giants outgained Arizona 341-266 but fell victim to a -4 turnover margin.  The Texans are 2-0 but were outgained by 56 and 37 yards in those contests.  They have benefited from a plus-5 turnover margin.  Turnovers shouldn't factor this much into the line as they can't be handicapped well, especially this early in the season.  We are getting the Giants at home at an excellent number here because odds makers are overreacting to turnover margin. Plays on any team that didn't force a turnover last game that is up against an opponent that forced 3 or more turnovers last game has resulted in a 130-79 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons following a road contest.  Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy CFB *DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH* Game of the Month on BYU -14

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Cougars, who were upset at Virginia last season.  They are the superior team, and I expect them to put a hurting on the Cavaliers here.  Playing home favorites that average 230 or more rushing yards per game against a team that averages 100-140 rushing yards per game has resulted in a 42-17 ATS record the last 5 seasons.  This system carries an average winning margin of 25.9 points.  Pound BYU.

5* Wiseguy CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* Game of the Year on Akron +9

Bottom Line: Marshall is getting way too much respect on the road against an Akron team that has had an extra week to prepare.  I'll gladly take the healthy amount of points in a game Akron has an excellent shot to win outright.  Marshall is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5-10 points under coach Holliday.  It is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite under its current coach.  The home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings, and the Thundering Herd are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Akron.  Pound the Zips.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -144

Bottom Line: Seattle has plenty of incentive after pulling within 1 game of Oakland for the second wild card spot.  It has been fantastic on the road where it is 10-4 in its last 14 and 7-1 in its last 8 as a favorite.  Houston has been its home away from home.  The Mariners are 11-2 in their last 13 at Houston, including 5-0 in their last 5.  The Astros are an atrocious 60-149 in their last 209 games versus winning teams, including 29-70 in their last 99 home games versus a team with a winning record.  The Astros are 2-7 in Peacock's last 9 starts, and he's struggled against Seattle, posting a 5.95 ERA in 7 starts against the M's.  Walker is one of the best young arms in baseball and should benefit from flying to Houston Thursday to get extra rest before this outing. He's 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in 3 career starts versus the Astros with both wins coming in Houston.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Kansas State +9.5

Bottom Line: Playing home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points in a non-conference matchup in the first month of the season, provided they return an experienced starting QB, has resulted in a 130-71 ATS (65%) record since 1992.  This system tightens up to 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons.  K-State is an unbelievable 65-4 in non-conference contests under coach Snyder.  And, it is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 regular season contests in the underdog role.  Pound the Wildcats.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* Blowout on Tigers -166

Bottom Line: The Twins are 0-5 in Gibson's last 5 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 home starts.  He's given up 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts.  He also has an ERA of 7.24 in 3 starts against Detroit this season.  Price has a 3.30 ERA and a 1.072 WHIP on the season, including a 2.73 road ERA and a 0.949 road WHIP.  His WHIP is significant because Minnesota is just 1-20 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower.  Price is 2-0 against the Twins this season, limiting them to 3 runs in 17 innings.  The Twins managed a win yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win.  Pound Detroit.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Year on Mariners +116

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Angels after becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff spot.  Seattle will play like the more desperate team as it trails Kansas City by 2 games for the 2nd wild card slot.  The Mariners also hold the edge on the mound with Elias, who has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last 9 starts.  Rasmus isn't a starter but will make his 4th straight start.  He hasn't made it past 3 1-3 innings in his first three starts.  Another early exit will place a lot of pressure on the pen, but don't be surprised if Scioscia gives him a longer leash in this one with it being a 4-game series and not wanting to tax his pen early in the series.  That bodes well for us.  The Mariners have dropped their last 2 versus the Angels but are 12-3 this season in road games when playing with double revenge.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Colts -3

Bottom Line: One thing you can't do is go against Andrew Luck following a loss.  Since taking over as QB of the Colts, they are an unbeaten 10-0 straight up and ATS off a defeat in the regular season.  Last season they crushed the 49ers by 20 on the road and beat Denver by 6 at home following losses.  These are clearly 2 of the best teams in the NFL.  The Eagles only won 1 game against playoff teams last season.  That was against Green Bay, which was playing without Aaron Rodgers.  Philadelphia's O-line is in bad shape.  The Eagles benefited from having the same O-line for 17 games last season but will struggle here against a good team without the unit in tact.  Additionally, the Colts are an unbeaten 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons following a loss on the road and have won these contests by 8.1 points on average.  They are 6-0 ATS at home during this span after giving up 30 points or more in their last game and have won by an average of 8.0 points in this situation.  Pound Indy.

5* Wiseguy NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Chargers +6

Bottom Line: Because Seattle rolled at home in the Week 1 opener and because it has had extra rest, we are getting a great line.  Seattle isn't the same team on the road where it is just 20-36 in the regular season the last 7 years.  San Diego, on the other hand, has been formidable at home where it is 45-19 the last 8 seasons.  The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after giving up more than 350 yards in their last game.  Pound San Diego.

5* Wiseguy Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College +17

Bottom Line: Look for USC to come out flat following a huge win over Stanford.  The Trojans defeated Boston College 35-7 last season and won't give the Eagles the focus they deserve as a result.  The Trojans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road contests.  The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a spread loss.  Pound BC.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Buffalo +36

Bottom Line: As if last week's disappointing performance at Army isn't enough motivation, the Bulls were clobbered 70-13 at Baylor last season.  They'll be looking to save a little face by keeping this once respectable and will put forth maximum effort to do so.  Baylor is riding high off a pair of lopsided wins but now hits the road for the first time and on a short week.  It also has the memory of last year's easy win over Buffalo in its mind so I don't expect it to give the Bulls its full attention.  QB Bryce Petty is expected back but he'll likely be a little out of rhythm and could have trouble finding chemistry with a new cast of receivers.  Injuries are expected to prevent 4 of Baylor's top playmakers from taking the field tonight.  Even if the Bears are able to get out to an early lead, I expect them to call off the dogs, leaving the backdoor wide open.  They know they have much more important games ahead.  Pound Buffalo.

5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -1

Bottom Line: The Ravens are in a much better spot playing a home game off a home game in a short week.  It's much tougher going on the road in a short week.  Baltimore has won 4 of its last 6 in the series, and I believe it will be the more motivated side after falling to Cincinnati in Week 1.  The Ravens have been outstanding at home, going an amazing 39-10 in their last 49 regular-season home games.  Playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game that are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in an 80-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  Pound Baltimore.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Blue Jays -143

Bottom Line: Arrieta has posted a 7.15 ERA in his last four road outings, and I'm not hesitating to fade the Cubs with him on the hill here.  Chicago is 0-4 in its last 4 games, 0-4 in its last 4 games versus left-handed starters and 0-5 in its last 5 games when its opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter and 8-0 in Buehrle's last 8 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.  He has a 2.42 ERA over his last 7 starts against the Cubs, and his clubs are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus Chicago.  Pound Toronto.

5* Wiseguy MNF *BEST BET* on Lions -6

Bottom Line: The Lions will be the hungrier team tonight.  They were defeated at home in overtime in Week 16 by the Giants last season in a game they led by 7 points late in the 4th quarter.  They outgained the Giants 355 to 279 in the game and dominated the time of possession.  They should have won the contest, and I expect them to have their revenge.  While NY made improvements to the defensive side of the football, an offensive line that allowed Eli Manning to be sacked a career-high 39 times remains suspect, especially since free-agent pickup Geoff Schwartz will be out at least the first 7 games with a dislocated toe.  I expect Suh, Fairley and company to wreak havoc tonight.  Pound the Lions.

5* Wiseguy NFC South Game of the Year on Buccaneers -2

Bottom Line: I love the Bucs in their season opener.  They have a coach (Lovie Smith) who has shown he can win in the National Football League, and I expect him to have them extremely well prepared.  Plus, Tampa will be extremely motivated by a pair of butt-kickings they received by Carolina last season.  The Bucs will be improved on both sides of the football, and they catch Carolina at the perfect time.  Cam Newton isn't healthy, and he has a new receiving corps to adjust to.  It takes time to build timing and chemistry, and I don't expect the Panthers to have it early.  The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run in this series, and I look for this trend to continue.  Pound the Bucs.

5* Wiseguy College Football Underdog Game of the Week on Iowa State +13

Bottom Line: Motivated by a 34-14 loss to FCS North Dakota State, and with last season's 41-7 defeat at K-State adding fuel to the fire, I expect a major response from Paul Rhoads' team.  K-State has won 6 straight in the series, but the previous 5 victories have come by 8 points or fewer.  The Cyclones have won or played the Wildcats to within 6 points or less in each of the last 4 meetings in Ames.  Home dogs of 10.5-21 points with 8 or more offensive starters returning including the QB are 40-12 ATS since 1992 following a game where they were outgained by 225 yards or more.  Pound the Cyclones.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Washington State -3.5

Bottom Line: The Cougars will be hungry following a tough loss to Rutgers in their opener.  After dropping last year's opener to Auburn, Washington State bounced back strong with a win at Southern Cal.  I expect a similar response here.  The Cougars were a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games last season, and they are 6-0 ATS under Leach in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards.  Playing on any team in the first 2 weeks of the season that was a bowl team the previous season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they lost their last 2 games the previous season and had a losing record.  Pound Washington State.

5* Wiseguy NFL Opener on Packers +6

Bottom Line: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued in their home opener as you might expect.  Green Bay enters the season hungry following a mediocre 8-8-1 campaign and will draw a little extra motivation from getting robbed in Seattle by the "Fail Mary" when it last visited in 2012.  Despite the loss, the Packers have won or lost by fewer than the 6 points we are getting here in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 versus Seattle.  That's a 7-1 trend with a perfect 4-0 tightener.  Green Bay is a reliable 40-27 ATS in road games under coach McCarthy, and I expect it to take the Seahawks down to the wire tonight.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (FoxS1) on UTSA +7.5

Bottom Line: We cashed an easy winner on the Roadrunners last week, and we'll ride them again here.  Consider that non-conference home dogs of 3.5-10 points are 30-6 ATS the last 10 seasons if they had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, playing against non-conference road favorites of 3.5-10 points in a matchup between teams that had winning records the previous season has resulted in a 45-16 ATS record since 1992.  The Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 17-8 ATS as underdogs under coach Coker.  Pound UTSA.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Angels -138

Bottom Line: The Angels fit into an awesome system that I'm going to ride today.  Road favorites of -125 or more that are seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite of -150 or higher has resulted in a 62-15 record the last 5 seasons, provided it is a team with a win percentage of 54-62%.  Teams fitting this system have won by 2.6 runs on average.  And, this system is 35-4 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 3-0 this season.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy AL West Game of the Year on A's -140

Bottom Line: Seattle's bullpen got a workout yesterday, and that wasn't ideal since Paxton is coming off a start in which he threw a career-high 118 pitches.  I don't expect him to be as sharp as he has been as a result, and I don't expect the pen to be able to pick him up.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Gray's last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Mariners.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 25 2-3 innings during his 4-start win streak over Seattle.  The A's are 38-14 in their last 52 home games and 73-34 in their last 107 games as a favorite.  Pound Oakland.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3.5

Bottom Line: This isn't the same Louisville team that kicked Miami in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. Teddy Bridgewater is gone and so is head coach Charlie Strong.  In addition, the Cardinals bring back only 4 starters on the defensive side of the football, and preseason 1st Team All ACC receiver Devante Parker is expected to miss 6 weeks.  Miami returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that started last season 7-0.  I expect another strong start from the Hurricanes, who are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games as underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  Pound Miami.

5* ESPN2 SNB *BEST BET* on Royals -156

Bottom Line: Look for the Royals to avoid being swept at home with Duffy on the hill.  The southpaw has been sensational, giving up 1 earned run or none in 9 of his last 12 starts.  The Royals are 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a favorite, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 division starts.  Cleveland's House has a 4.88 road ERA on the season, and I don't see that holding up here.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Dodgers -138

Bottom Line: Greinke has owned the NL West.  He has a 1.79 ERA in 10 starts versus division opponents this season, and the Dodgers are 18-4 in his division starts over the last 2 seasons.  He's had his way with the Padres throughout his career.  In fact, his teams are 6-0 all-time in his starts versus San Diego, during which he's posted a 2.00 ERA.  Kennedy has a 4.35 ERA in 10 starts versus NL West foes this season.  He also has a 4.27 career ERA versus the Dodgers, and his teams are 1-6 in his last 7 starts against them.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF Blowout Game of the Week on Ohio State -16

Bottom Line: I'll back the Buckeyes in what should be an inspired performance from them.  They ended last season on a sour note, dropping their last two games after winning their first 12.  As if that's not enough motivation, they'll be out to prove they are national title contenders even without Braxton Miller.  I don't think Miller's absence will matter.  The Buckeyes have more speed, more size and more athleticism all over the field on both sides of the ball.  I look for them to really dominate the line of scrimmage.  Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points are 43-15 ATS the last 10 seasons if they won 80% or more of their games the previous season.  Teams fitting this system have been favored by 15.2 points on average, but have won by 22.5 points on average.  This system is 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Pound Ohio State.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UTSA +11.5

Bottom Line: The Roadrunners were embarrassed at home by Houston last season, and they will be out for some serious revenge as a result.  They lost the game 59-28, but the score doesn't tell the entire story as they outgained Houston.  The difference was a minus-5 turnover margin.  I just don't see there being such a huge difference in the turnover column this time around, which means these 11.5 points are looking pretty good, especially since the Roadrunners return 20 starters.  UTSA is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games, 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 non-conference contests.  The Cougars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.  Pound the Road runners.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *BEST BET* on Tulsa -6.5

Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Tulsa, which had won 8 straight over Tulane by an average of 30.9 points.  Tulsa is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this stretch.  These 4 home wins have come by an average of 36.8 points.  The Golden Hurricane outgained the Green Wave in last year's loss but was done in by 8 penalties totaling nearly 100 yards and a -2 turnover margin.  Look for Tulsa to have its revenge at home.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -153

Bottom Line: The Reds have had Chicago's number, going 38-14 in the last 52 meetings.  Look for Cincinnati to continue its dominance over the Cubs behind a gem from Latos.  The Reds are 27-10 in Latos' last 37 home starts and 12-1 in his last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Latos' clubs are 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus the Cubs, during which he's posted a 1.88 ERA.  Chicago's Turner has a 6.03 ERA in 12 starts this season and was rocked in his most recent start against Cincinnati earlier this month.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Blowout Game of the Week on Mariners -1.5 +112

Bottom Line: Texas took Game 1 2-0 and leads the season series 8-5 so Seattle will be lacking no motivation when it hits the field this evening.  The Mariners are 9-0 in their last 9 games following a loss.  They are also 9-0 in their last 9 games after being held to 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Clearly, this is a club that takes losing seriously.  Seattle has the edge on the mound with Paxton, who Texas isn't familiar with at all.  The Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 starts in the 2nd game of a series.  The Mariners are 14-5 in their last 19 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 at home.  The Rangers are 16-44 in their last 60 overall and 3-14 in their last 17 games following a win.  They are 2-10 in Martinez's last 12 starts, 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200.  Pound the Mariners on the run line.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Monday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Royals -133

Bottom Line: The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter.  They are also 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts while the Yankees are 0-3 in Pineda's last 3 starts.  Shields is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Yankees, holding them to 1 earned run in 13 innings.  This is a tough spot for New York because it is off an emotional extra-innings win and starts a 3-game series in Detroit tomorrow.  The Royals, who are a major-league best 24-7 since July 22, are back from a lengthy road trip and can settle in for 10 straight at home.  Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Angels +134

Bottom Line: The Halos are showing a ton of value at this price given Weaver's track record with the A's.  He has a 2.53 ERA in 28 starts against them.  The Angels are 10-3 in his last 13 starts in the series and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts.  LA is a perfect 11-0 in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons in Weaver's starts versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 0.5 runs per game or more.  LA has won these 11 by an average of 3.7 runs.  The Angels are also 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 starts in the 3rd game of a series.  Kazmir has an ERA of 4.66 in 5 career starts versus the Angels.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason *BEST BET* on Bengals +3

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Dodgers -158

Bottom Line: The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 versus the Mets, including 5-0 in their last 5 at home in the series, and I expect them to continue their dominance behind Greinke.  The Dodgers are 20-6 in Greinke's last 26 home starts.  His clubs are 22-4 all-time in his home starts versus NL clubs with a batting averaging of .250 or lower.  Also, Greinke's clubs are 53-15 all-time in his starts as a favorite of -150 or higher.  Greinke has a 2.48 ERA at home while deGrom has a 3.69 road ERA.  Greinke has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts against the Mets spanning 12 innings.  deGrom walked away with a 4.50 ERA versus the Dodgers when he gave up 3 homers in a loss to them earlier this season.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason Game of the Year on Colts -1

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football *BEST BET* on Browns +3

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month on A's -142

Bottom Line: Oakland holds the advantage with Lester going.  The southpaw has a 2.51 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP on the season.  His clubs are 10-1 in his last 11 starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Atlanta's Minor has a 5.33 ERA and a 1.576 WHIP on the season.  The Braves are 2-10 in Minor's last 12 interleague starts.  Oakland is now percentage points behind the Angels in a division it had led since April 23.  I expect that to provide some added motivation tonight.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason *BEST BET* on 49ers -4

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NFL Preseason Game of the Week on Houston Texans -3

No analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Red Sox -162

Bottom Line: Boston's 4-game win streak came to an end with last night's extra-innings loss, but I like the Red Sox to bounce back strong.  Houston's Peacock has a 6.47 ERA on the road, a 10.53 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 14.75 ERA in a pair of starts versus Boston.  The Astros are 0-4 in his last 4 starts, 0-9 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days) and 0-2 in his starts versus Boston.  De La Rosa has quietly been really good, especially at home where he has a
1.97 ERA.  The Red Sox are 31-13 in their last 44 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Astros are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Boston.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Royals -139

Bottom Line: Kansas City's Duffy has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP on the season.  His ERA and WHIP are even lower on the road. His WHIP is extremely significant because the Twins are 0-17 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or better, and they have lost these contests by 3.8 runs on average.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Twins.  Expect to see some rust on Nolasco, who hasn't made a big-league start since July 6.  He has a 5.90 ERA on the season.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Titans +3.5

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Year on Cardinals -161

Bottom Line: I love the Cardinals at home against the Padres tonight.  The Cards are 75-34 in the last 109 meetings, including 40-12 in the last 52 in St. Louis.  The Cards are also a perfect 14-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus NL teams that average 3.8 runs per game or less.  They have won these games by 4.6 runs on average.  The Cardinals are 43-15 in their last 58 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Stults can't be trusted on the road where he's 1-9 with a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts.  The Padres are 3-9 in Stults' last 12 starts and 7-20 in his last 27 road starts.  Lackey is 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 home starts, and his home ERA likely would be lower had he been pitching in the NL all season.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy NFLX *BEST BET* on Jaguars +4

Typically no analysis in the preseason.  Plays are based on a number of factors, including QB depth, overall team depth, position battles, coaching strategy, motivation and trends.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -161

Bottom Line: The Mariners hold a significant advantage on the rubber with Iwakuma, who has a 2.86 ERA on the season and a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts.  He's given up 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts.  Dickey has a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts and a 4.03 ERA in 12 road starts.  He's allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 10 starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts following a team loss in the previous game.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus winning clubs.  Playing favorites of -150 or more has resulted in an 89-22 record since 1997 if they are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or less over his last 10 starts and have a team batting average of .265 or less and are facing a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower.  This system is 11-3 on the season.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -140

Bottom Line: The Nationals are 8-0 in their last 8 at Citi Field, and they'll be hungry after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Atlanta cost them the series.  The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game while the Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Fister has been a machine of late with a 0.84 ERA over his last three starts.  He's gone five consecutive starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs.  The Nationals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 5 days' rest.  He's also 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Mets.  New York is recalling Montero here, and that's good news for the Nats.  The Mets are 0-4 in his 4 career starts while he's compiled a 5.40 ERA.  Pound the Nationals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -133

Bottom Line: The Indians evened the series behind their ace, but I don't see them taking the series with Carrasco making his first start since April.  The Indians are just 2-12 in their last 14 in the Bronx.  Carrasco has given up at least 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts, and the Tribe is 3-14 in his last 17 starts and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Carrasco is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus the Yanks, allowing 13 runs in 7 2-3 innings  The Yankees are 7-2 in Kuroda's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Kuroda has given up more than 3 earned runs only 3 times in his last 15 starts.  Kuroda hasn't allowed more than 5 hits or 3 runs in any of his 3 starts versus the Indians.  Pound the Yankees.