Winning Sports Picks

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST  BET* on Bulls -5.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Bulls, who were defeated 102-86 at Washington last week. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS when out for revenge for a double-digit defeat since the start of last season. Additionally, playing home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a double-digit road loss has produced a 121-73 (62.4%) ATS record the last 19 years, provided both teams carry win percentages of 60-75%. Pound Chicago.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

Bottom Line: The Red Storm has lost 3 in a row but has had a week off to get right. I expect them to right the ship tonight. The Johnnies were pathetic defensively last game, allowing Villanova to shoot 55.7%. Rest assured the defense will be much better here. St. John's is 10-0 ATS in road games after allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher since 1997, and it has won these games by an average of 6.7 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 for a Wednesday game, playing against teams off 2 consecutive close wins of 5 points or less over conference opponents has resulted in a 22-5 (81.5%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound St. John's.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8

Bottom Line: The Jazz are being undervalued at home where they have been extremely competitive. They've won or lost by less than 8 points in 7 straight at home. The Warriors haven't played a road game since Christmas so they'll finally be outside their comfort zone. They've lost or won by less than 8 points in each of their last 5 on the road. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on Tennessee +3.5

Bottom Line: Arkansas has covered the spread in 3 straight. However, it is 0-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games under Mike Anderson and has lost these games by 8.7 points on average. Arkansas does an excellent job of sharing the basketball, but Donnie Tyndall's teams are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games versus good passing teams that average 16.0 assists per game or more. They have won these 7 by an average of 15.3 points. Additionally, Arkansas is 15-30 ATS as a road favorite or pickem since 1997 while Tennessee is 30-8 ATS as a home underdog or pickem since 1997. Pound the Vols.

5* WISEGUY CFB CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Ohio State +7

Bottom Line: I backed Ohio State as a 10-point dog against Alabama and watched the Buckeyes win outright. The reasoning was simple - Urban Meyer is perhaps the best coach in college football. He had his team ready for the Crimson Tide, and I expect him to have them ready for Oregon. Teams headed up by Meyer are 21-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role. His teams are also 12-1 ATS all-time off an upset victory. Pound Ohio State.

5* WISEGUY DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Broncos -7

Bottom Line: Indy is 0-6 ATS in road games played in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75% over the last 3 seasons, and it has lost these games by an average of 24.9 points. Denver is on a 21-10 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a 16-3 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Pound the Broncos.

5* WISEGUY NFC PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR on Seahawks -10.5

Bottom Line: The Seahawks enter the playoffs on a 6-game win streak, which is significant because they are 6-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Carroll.  Seattle is 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more. It is also 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after averaging 6.0 yards per play or more in each of its last 2 games. Pound Seattle.

5* WISEGUY NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks/Bulls OVER 195

Bottom Line: Milwaukee has finished under the total in 9 straight, which has forced oddsmakers to overadjust the line due to the amount of action the under is getting in Milwaukee games. This provides us with an excellent overs opportunity tonight. Milwaukee's unders run has been directly correlated with how well it has defended, but this will be its 4th game in 5 days and defense is the first thing to go in fatigued spots. The over is 18-6 in the Bulls' last 24 home games, including 5-0 in their last 5 versus teams with a winning road record. The over is 14-4 the last 2 seasons in Milwaukee's games as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. We've seen 210.4 total points scored on average in these contests. Pound the over.

5* WISEGUY Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska-Omaha -1.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska-Omaha is 7-0 ATS lifetime under coach Hansen after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and has won these by an average of 4.4 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 plays against road teams that are off a cover as a double-digit favorite and are playing their 3rd game in 7 days has resulted in a 36-11 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Pound UNO.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cavs +12.5

Bottom Line: The Cavs have struggled with LeBron James out nursing injuries, but there is still a ton of talent on the roster, and I expect them to show up against the best team in the NBA with the bright ESPN lights on. Playing against home teams that are outscoring opponents by 9.0 PPG or more on the season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 5 seasons when they are up against an opponent that allowed 105 points or more last game. Pound Cleveland.

5* WISEGUY OHIO VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Tech +6.5

Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Murray State, which has won its last 9 games. The Racers are on an 8-19 ATS slide after 9 or more consecutive wins. Murray State put the hurt on Tennessee Tech last season as it was able to control the glass, but this year's Murray State team hasn't been nearly as good on the boards. The Racers are averaging just 33 rebounds per game, and that number drops to 30 in games played away from home. The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, are averaging 38 boards per game. This number goes up to 41 at home where they are 6-0 on the season. Tennessee Tech is 12-1 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams that average 33 or less rebounds per game. Pound Tennessee Tech.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +2

Bottom Line: This is a big bounce back spot for Illinois following consecutive defeats at Michigan and Ohio State. This is a big letdown spot for Maryland following big wins over Michigan State and Minnesota. Illinois is a perfect 7-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 30.0 points. It has two more Big Ten road games following this one, which makes this game that much more important. Rayvonte Rice is out with a hand injury, but I fully expect this deep, talented group to step up. Pound Illinois.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -7

Bottom Line: This is a big bounce back spot for Xavier following a bad loss at DePaul. It's also a big revenge spot for the Musketeers after getting swept by Seton Hall last season. Additionally, this is a big letdown spot for the Pirates who hit the road off back-to-back big home wins over St. John's and Villanova. Xavier is a perfect 8-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 21 points and has notable double-digit wins over Alabama and Georgetown. Pound Xavier.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* BLOWOUT on Houston -7

Bottom Line: This is not the night to back Central Florida. The Knights are 0-8 ATS on Tuesday night under coach Jones. Houston, on the other hand, is on an 18-6 ATS run in Tuesday night home games. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite or pickem over the last three seasons. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Houston.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on Troy State +3.5

Bottom Line: Texas-Arlington is 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons off a home win of 10 points or more and has lost these games by 7.1 points on average. Troy is 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons and has won these games by an average of 2.0 points. Pound Troy State.

5* WISEGUY NBA "Total" BLOWOUT on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 200

Bottom Line: These teams have come in under 200 points in each of the last 9 meetings so it's clear the books are begging for action on the under. However, they have good reason for posting such a high number as the Washington defense is really struggling (gave up over 52% shooting in each of its last 3 games) and it's up against a New Orleans team that is averaging over 108 ppg at home. Washington is 17-7 OVER the last 2 seasons in road games after finishing under the total in its last game. The OVER iis 10-4 in the Pelicans' last 14 home games and 11-4 in their last 15 versus the East.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys UNDER 49

Bottom Line: When the total is 42.5 to 49 points 8 games or more into the season, playing the UNDER on home teams that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt that are up against a team that allows 5.9-6.7 yards per pass attempt has resulted in a 27-5 record since 1983, provided the team we are playing on has averaged 8 passing yards per attempt or more in its last 2 games. This system is 4-0 the last 3 seasons. The Lions are on a 6-0 UNDER run in road games played on turf and a 7-0 UNDER run in road games versus teams that allow an average of 7 yards per pass attempt or more. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: The Bengals lost 27-0 in Indianapolis in October, but that won't keep me from pounding them given the strong history in their favor. Playing road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 76-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 9 points under coach Lewis. They have won in this spot by an average of 5.8 points. This Cincy team has failed to make it out of the wild card round each of the past 3 seasons, and that provides added motivation. Pound the Bengals.

5* WISEGUY NFL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Ravens +4

Bottom Line: The Ravens are showing some nice value catching better than a field goal. Prior to each team winning impressively in this season's two regular-season meetings, we had seen 5 straight and 9 of 11 matchups in the series decided by 3 points or less. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 wild card games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road playoff games. Pound Baltimore.

5* WISEGUY BIRMINGHAM BOWL *BEST BET* on East Carolina +7

Bottom Line: ECU concluded the regular season with a disappointing 2-point loss to UCF, but it is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons following defeat. The Pirates are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus SEC foes. ECU has an explosive offense that put up huge numbers against several power conference schools. I think 7 points is too many for the books to be giving to this explosive offensive team, especially considering how anemic Florida has been offensively. The Gators left it all out on the field in their last game against in-state rival FSU only to come up short. They managed to cover the spread but are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a cover. The Florida program is in disarray with Muschamp gone and interim D.J. Durkin soon to follow. I think the Florida players just want to forget this season and move on. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY TAXSLAYER BOWL *BEST BET* on Iowa +3.5

Bottom Line: The Hawkeyes have been an outstanding investment this time of year at 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. I'm not hesitating to take the points as I believe the wrong team is favored. This line has a lot to do with the respect the public gives the SEC, but we have seen in these bowls that the SEC isn't as strong as in years past, and this is a middle of the road team from the weaker division. The Volunteers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus teams with a winning record. Pound Iowa.

5* WISEGUY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota +5

Bottom Line: It's a major letdown for Missouri to be playing an unranked opponent in its bowl game after a disappointing performance against Alabama in the SEC Championship. That game against Alabama mattered way more to the Tigers than this one does. Minnesota, on the other hand, sees this game as a great opportunity, and it has been extremely competitive against good teams in recent seasons, going 10-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record the last 2 seasons, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus such teams. Pound the Gophers.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on DePaul +4.5

Bottom Line: Marquette is 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games following 2 consecutive double-digit wins and has lost these games by an average of 7.0 points. Additionally, DePaul is 14-5 ATS in home games against teams with win percentages of 60-80% under coach Purnell. Pound DePaul.

5* WISEGUY PEACH BOWL *BEST BET* on Ole Miss +3.5

Bottom Line: The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games while the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS versus excellent passing teams that average 275 passing YPG or more under coach Freeze and has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points. Pound Ole Miss.

5* WISEGUY MUSIC CITY BOWL *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +9

Bottom Line: We are getting Notre Dame at a great number because of its poor finish. Having had a month to regroup, I fully expect the Fighting Irish to give LSU a game. Notre Dame is on a 23-10 ATS run in road/neutral field game against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%, and it has won these games by an average of 3.9 points. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Pound the Fighting Irish.

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Kings/Nets UNDER 204.5

Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on a team that has finished over the total in at least its last 2 games has resulted in a 108-58 (65%) record the last 5 seasons if that team is playing an opponent that has finished over the total in at least its last 4 games. Additionally, playing the UNDER on a road team when the total is 200 or higher has resulted in a 72-38 (66%) record since 1996 if the road team averages 102 PPG or more and is playing a team that averages 92-98 PPG, and if the road team allowed 55 points or more in the 1st half in its last 2 games. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY LIBERTY BOWL *BEST BET* on Texas A&M +2.5

Bottom Line: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. It is also 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Aggies.

5* WISEGUY NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on Panthers +3

Bottom Line: I like the Panthers catching a field goal given how successful they've been in the series of late. They are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with neither loss during this stretch coming by more than 2 points. The Panthers are starting to resemble the team that went 12-4 last season, holding their last 3 foes to 17 points or fewer. Carolina is 58-25 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 56-36 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Falcons are 12-25 ATS since 1992 in home games following a double-digit victory. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound the Panthers.

5* WISEGUY PRE-NEW YEAR's BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +3

Bottom Line: Penn State has the edge on the sidelines with James Franklin, and it also has the edge on the field with a stifling defense that ranks No. 1 in the nation against the run. The Nittany Lions match up with Boston College extremely well since the Eagles depend on their run game to move the football. It will be nothing doing on the ground against this stout Penn State defense. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 December games. Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Pound Penn State.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Hornets +6.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from OKC following a big Christmas Day win in San Antonio. The Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season, and they'll be more rested and more prepared for this contest. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their 4 road games. Charlotte is 10-1 ATS in December road games under coach Clifford. Pound the Hornets.

5* WISEGUY St. Petersburg Bowl *BEST BET* on NC State +3

Bottom Line: The Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. They are also on an impressive 22-10 ATS run in road/neutral field venues when getting more than the typical week or preparation time. UCF has struggled when playing away from its home turf. The Knights have won by more than 3 points in just 2 of 6 road/neutral field games this season. This included a really bad loss at UConn. Pound NC State.

5* WISEGUY CHRISTMAS *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to a combination of Cleveland's back-to-back blowout wins and covers and Miami's ugly loss to the 76ers. This will be an emotional game for LeBron James as he returns to the place he won 2 Championships. He struggled mightily in the season opener in his return to Cleveland and I believe his emotions will also get the better of him in this one. I also expect a big effort from the Heat as they look to show LeBron that he would have been better off staying in South Beach. At the end of regulation, Cleveland has won by more than 5.5 points in just 3 of 11 road games this season. Miami has been a great bounce-back team this season at 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. Pound the Heat.

5* WISEGUY BAHAMAS BOWL *BEST BET* on Central Michigan +4

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to Western Kentucky's win over Marshall. I'm not sold on the Hilltoppers. Defense wins championships, and Western Kentucky is arguably the worst defensive team in the country. Central Mich is stout defensively, ranking 16th in the land in total defense with 331.3 ypg allowed. CMU is on a 21-8 ATS run versus excellent passing teams like WKU that average 275 ypg or more through the air. The Chippewas are on an 11-3 ATS run versus poor run defenses that allow 4.75 yards per carry or more. The Chippewas are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning record. The Chipps should cover this number behind solid defensively play and a strong running game. Pound CMU.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +14

Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game of the Cavs, which are off a big blowout win over Memphis and have a Christmas day showdown at Miami on deck. I don't see them giving the lowly T-Wolves their full attention tonight. Playing against home favorites after a game where they shot 60% or better has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, Tuesday night double-digit dogs that have a win percentage of 25% or worse on the season are 104-59 ATS since 1996. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY Boca Raton Bowl *BEST BET* on Marshall -9

Bottom Line: The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 December contests, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus C-USA schools. All of these trends don't bode well for the Huskies, but here's the clincher: NIU is 0-7 ATS since 1992 in road/neutral field contests versus opponents that carry an average margin of victory of 17 PPG or more on the season. Pound the Thundering Herd.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: Cincy has been awesome at home in recent years so the fact it has lost its last 2 home games in blowout fashion isn't sitting well. The Bengals also don't like the fact they've been blown out twice in primetime. I expect them to be the more motivated team tonight as a result. The Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday Night Football games. Pound Cincy.

5* WISEGUY NBA Pre All-Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Rockets -3.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Rockets, who were bounced by Portland in six games in last season's playoffs. What stings even worse is how they lost. It looked like Houston was going to force a Game 7, then Damian Lillard nailed a three-pointer as time expired. You just don't forget losses like that, and this is the first meeting since. Houston will be ready. The Rockets have been a much better play than Portland when facing quality competition. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60% while the Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Houston.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders +6

Bottom Line: Playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 33-13 (72%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 games has resulted in an 83-38 (69%) ATS record the last 31 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the 2nd half of the season. Pound the Raiders.

5* WISEGUY DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE WEEK on Dolphins -6.5

Bottom Line: The Vikings have covered the number in each of their last 4 but 3 of those were at home. They are just 2-5 on the road this season and in a historically bad spot. Consider that they are 6-16 ATS in road games after covering the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 22 seasons. After getting taken out being the woodshed the past 2 weeks, I expect Miami to respond at home. Pound the Dolphins.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +4

Bottom Line: Playing road teams that are out for revenge for a home blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, provided that opponent checks in off a home win, has resulted in a 41-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Off a big win over the Clippers last night, Denver will have a tough time getting past a more motivated and better rested Indiana squad. Pound the Pacers.

5* WISEGUY NFL "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Chargers/49ers OVER 41.5

Bottom Line: Playing the over on home teams that have gained 250 or less total yards in 2 straight games in a matchup of teams with a yards per play differential of +/- 0.4 has resulted in a 41-16 (72%) record the last 31 seasons. This system is 9-1 the last 10 seasons. Additionally, playing the over on teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points that are off a home loss by 10 or more points and are up against an opponent that's off a road loss has resulted in a 54-26 (67.5%) record the last 10 seasons. Pound the over.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Bulls +6.5

Bottom Line: Memphis is being overvalued following back-to-back big wins over Golden State and San Antonio. The Bulls have been outstanding on the road where they are 11-4, and they are an incredible 17-5 ATS in Friday night road game over the last three seasons. Playing underdogs that are outscoring opponents by 3 PPG or more on the season and are matched up against a team that is coming off a close win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 46-21 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Bulls.

5* WISEGUY NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Titans/Jaguars OVER 40

Bottom Line: The Titans are 9-1 over after scoring 7 points or less in the 1st half in 2 straight games the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average of 57.0 total points scored in this spot. The Titans are 12-2 over lifetime after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. We've seen an average of 53.5 total points scored in this situation. Playing the over on road teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points has resulted in a 53-23 (70%) record the last 31 years, provided they are coming off 2 or more straight unders and are a team that has been outscored by 10 PPG or more on the season. We've seen an average of 45.5 total points scored with this system. Pound the over.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +1.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for the Nuggets, who were defeated by double digits in Houston Saturday. I expect home court to make the difference as the home team is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 at home. These 4 wins came by an average of 12.0 points. Pound the Nuggets.

5* WISEGUY NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Kings +7.5

Bottom Line: The Kings are 17-4 ATS the last 3 seasons following a stretch of 8 or more losses in a 10-game span. They are also on a 32-16 ATS run as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9.0 points. Playing against favorites in a game involving teams with a +/- 3.0 PPG scoring differential, provide they are off a blowout win of 15 points or more, has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Sacramento.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has way more to play for as it is still in the playoff hunt. Plus, I'm not hesitating to side with Drew Brees over Jay Cutler. Both teams have struggled defensively, but New Orleans has the edge with the far superior offense. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus strong offensive teams that average 350 ypg or more. They have lost these games by an average of 13.2 points. They are also 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by 18.0 points on average. Pound the Saints.

5* WISEGUY NFL DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -10

Bottom Line: The Chiefs will be out for some serious revenge against an Oakland team that defeated them 24-20 Nov. 20. That loss started a 3-game skid for the Chiefs that has them on the brink of falling out of the AFC playoff hunt. I expect them to take their frustrations out all over an inferior opponent in Arrowhead Sunday. Playing home favorites of 3.5-10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are also coming off an upset loss has resulted in a 65-28 (70%) ATS record since 1983. Recently, this system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Chiefs.

5* WISEGUY NFL UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK on Bills +5.5

Bottom Line: Buffalo has an excellent chance of pulling off this upset. Green Bay is 3-3 on the road and would have covered this number in just 1 road game this season. The Packers have never won in Buffalo where they are 0-5. I like having the veteran Kyle Orton in this spot. He knows a thing of two about going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers and coming out on top. While with Kansas City in 2011, he ended Green Bay's then 19-game win streak. This is also a tough situational spot for Green Bay, hitting the road after playing the Monday night game. The Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday nighter. Pound the Bills.

5* WISEGUY CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -7

Bottom Line: This is a bad scheduling spot for Northern Iowa, playing 2 road games in 4 days. VCU has had a week to prepare, and it has lacked no focus as it looks to pay the Panthers back for last season's upset loss in Cedar Falls. Playing against road underdogs or pickems in the 1st 10 games of the season that return all 5 starters and held their last opponent to 55 points or less has resulted in a 29-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 11.9 points. Pound VCU.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wizards +2.5

Bottom Line: The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Playing against road favorites that have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, provided they have a win percentage of 75% or better and are playing a winning team, has resulted in a 63-27 (70%) ATS record since 1996. Pound Washington.

5* WISEGUY Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals +4.5

Bottom Line: The Cardinals found a way to get it done in Kansas City Sunday despite playing less than their best on both sides of the football. That performance against an AFC foe actually bodes well for us as the Cards are 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game under Arians and 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game under Arians. The Rams will be out for revenge for last month's 31-14 loss in Arizona, but they are 11-30 ATS since 1992 when looking for same-season revenge. Plus, Fisher's squads are just 15-33 ATS all-time when laying 3.5 to 7.0 at home. Playing against home favorites off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Arizona.

5* WISEGUY EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Hornets -2.5

Bottom Line: The Hornets have the edge at home against a Boston team that has lost 5 of its 1st 7 road games. Charlotte has been resting comfortably at home all month and has had 4 full days to prepare for the Celtics. Boston is playing for the 3rd time in 4 days with its most recent one going to double OT so it will be showing some fatigue. The Celtics have been awful on defense this season, especially on the road where they are giving up 110.3 ppg. They are 15-26 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 versus NBA Atlantic division foes. Pound Charlotte.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +4.5

Bottom Line: Fatigue will be an issue for Phoenix, which is playing a 4th game in 5 days and went to OT last night in LA. Playing against home teams that have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and are playing a 4th game in 5 days has resulted in a 139-86 ATS record since 1996. This system has gone 15-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Heat.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on UMKC +23.5

Bottom Line: Off a dominant performance against Arkansas and with a big rivalry game in Iowa City on deck, Iowa State will get caught looking past a UMKC squad it demolished by 59 points last season. The Kangaroos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Iowa State is on a 10-22 ATS slide versus teams with a win percentage of 20-40%. Playing against double-digit road underdogs in the first 10 games of the season that were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, provided they return just 2 starters, has resulted in a 66-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

5* WISEGUY MNF *BEST BET* on Falcons +14

Bottom Line: Green Bay is being overvalued at home against an Atlanta team that has turned the corner. The Falcons have played good football over their last five games, going 3-2 during this stretch with the 2 losses coming by a total of 3 points to very good Detroit and Cleveland teams. Atlanta's improvement has come from the defensive side of the football as it has allowed an average of only 19.5 points over its last four games. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. They have won by an average of 7.1 points in these games. Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points in the 2nd half of the season that have beaten the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in an 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 8.8 points on average. Lastly, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Pound Atlanta.

5* WISEGUY AFC NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR on Browns +4

Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road blowout loss of at least 14 points has resulted in a 78-42 against the spread record over the last 31 years. The Browns are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race, and I'm expecting Brian Hoyer to rise to the occasion and silence all the Johnny Manziel talk. The Colts have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, and Hoyer has been able to take advantage against such teams going 14-5-1 ATS in his last 20 games versus teams that give up 6.1-8.1 passing yards per attempt. Additionally, Hoyer is on a 9-0 ATS run in games when the total of 45.5-52.5 and has led his teams to victories by an average of 15.9 points in these games. Pound Cleveland.

5* WISEGUY SEC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Missouri +14.5

Bottom Line: Alabama is getting a little too much respect in this neutral field battle. The Crimson Tide have played 5 neutral field/road games this season and didn't win any of them by more than 14 points. Mizzou has been an awesome investment at 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. They are also 9-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Bama is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored under Saban. Saban's teams are 0-7 ATS all-time after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Pound Mizzou.

5* WISEGUY CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Wisc.-Green Bay +10.5

Bottom Line: This is a very dangerous game for Miami. Wisc.-GB is an experienced team, and it will be livid after getting murdered by Georgia State. The Phoenix return 4 starters from a team that defeated Virginia last season. They are 29-10 ATS when playing with 1 day of rest or none under coach Wardle and 15-6 ATS under their current coach when playing a 2nd road game in 3 days. Don't be surprised if they shock the Hurricanes.

5* WISEGUY NBA *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Timberwolves +7

Bottom Line: Look for Houston to get caught looking ahead tonight. The Rockets are prime for a letdown following a win over Memphis and with a tough game against Phoenix on deck tomorrow. They have already defeated the Timberwolves by double-digits this season so they will be thinking they can just show up and win. Minnesota, however, just lost to the worst team in the league, and I'm expecting an inspired effort in the aftermath of that. The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 days' rest and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Bowling Green losing its last 2. The Falcons had nothing to play in either game as they had already wrapped up the division. Now, they have everything to play for as they have an opportunity to make it back-to-back MAC titles. This is Northern Illinois' 5th straight MAC Championship game, but it has been far from dominant in the previous 4, going 2-2 with the largest margin of victory at the end of regulation being 3 points (won by 7 in OT in the other). Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in road/neutral field venues versus conference foes. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss to a conference foe as a favorite of 10 or more, provided the game is being played after the first month of the season, has resulted in a 55-25 ATS record since 1992. Pound the Falcons.

5* WISEGUY CFB *BEST BET* on ECU -6.5

Bottom Line: Playing on excellent running teams that average 4.8 yards per rush or more when they are taking on a poor running team that averages 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, provided it is a conference matchup, has resulted in a 95-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 21-3 ATS this season, and I'm going to ride it. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +4

Bottom Line: This is a difficult spot for Toronto, which is playing its 2nd road game in as many nights and it's 3rd in 4 days. It has a big showdown with Cleveland on deck so it will be easy to peek ahead to that one since it handled Utah easily at home last month. The Jazz will be the fresher team having had yesterday off. They'll also be the more motivated squad as they look to end a 6-game slide and avenge that earlier loss in Toronto. The Raptors are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +7.5

Bottom Line: Indiana State is difficult to beat at home and is very difficult to defeat by a wide margin. By my count, the Sycamores have lost by fewer than this number in 41 of their last 45 home games. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 3-0 in the last 3, 5-1 in the last 6 and 10-2 in the last 12. Only 1 time during this span has the home team lost by more than 7.5 points. Pound Indiana State.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +7.5

Bottom Line: The Hawks are the more rested team having had the last 2 days off while the Celtics just had yesterday off. Fresh legs have done Atlanta no good against the number as it is 6-25 ATS in its last 31 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Boston has shown the ability to score the basketball, and that makes it an attractive dog here. Playing underdogs that average 103 or more ppg that are taking on a team that has scored 100 points or more in 3 straight games has resulted in a 96-45 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound Boston.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +3

Bottom Line: Look for the Jazz to bounce back at home following Saturday's 112-96 loss to the Clippers. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Nuggets are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 versus the Western Conference and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NBA Northwest division. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets were brutally embarrassed by the Bills last Monday, which is all the more reason to back them here. Playing teams off a loss of 28 points or more that have been outscored by an average of 4.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Jets were held to 3 points last Monday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 15 points. Miami put up 36 in Denver but is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points. The Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Jets.

5* WISEGUY NFL LOOK-AHEAD GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucs +4

Bottom Line: This is a prime look-ahead spot for Cincy. The Bengals have a big showdown with division rival Pittsburgh next week, which makes it extremely tough for them to get up for the lowly Bucs here. Tampa Bay hasn't quit competing. It has outgained each of its last 4 opponents, which is a great sign, and 3 of those games were played on the road. The Bucs are 0-5 at home this season so they will be leaving it all on the field in hopes of removing the goose egg. Fortunately for them, they catch the Bengals at the perfect time. Home underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .250 or less are 121-65 ATS since 1983, provided they have failed to cover 2 out of their last 3 games and are up against a winning team. Pound the Bucs.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6

Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to grab the points with the Jazz as I expect them to take the Clippers right down to the wire. LA has played 5 road games the last 7 days, and I think it runs out of gas against a Utah squad that has had the last 2 days off. The Jazz have won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 34 of their last 36 home games against the Clippers. Pound Utah.

5* WISEGUY AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +7

Bottom Line: Cincy has won 5 in a row SU and ATS and is being overvalued on the road as a result. Just 1 win during this stretch came against a quality opponent and it was at home. Now the Bearcats are on the road and up against one of the best defenses they've seen all season. What has Temple done against good offensive teams like Cincinnati the last 2 seasons? It's gone 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31 ppg or more while holding them to just 26 ppg on average. It held ECU to just 10 points on this field and Memphis to 16. Pound Temple.

5* Wiseguy CFB *BLACK FRIDAY FEAST* on UMass +3

Bottom Line: UMass has played outstanding football this season and has been in every game but 3. The Minutemen had strung together 6 consecutive quality performances before laying an egg at Akron last game, and they will be looking to bounce back strong on Senior Day. They were kicked 32-3 at Buffalo last season so revenge is in order as well. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. Take the points.

5* WISEGUY Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Lions -7

Bottom Line: The Lions lost 34-9 in New England Sunday, but they are an impressive 29-14 ATS after a loss of 21 points or more since 1992. The Bears have responded with back-to-back wins following a 3-game skid, but they are 0-7 ATS all-time under Trestman after winning 2 times in a 3-game span. They have lost by an average of 15.3 points in these 7 contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit. Pound the Lions.

5* WISEGUY NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Timberwolves +1.5

Bottom Line: Heavy legs will be an issue for the Bucks as they hit the road, where they are 3-5, after playing at home last night. Minnesota will be very fresh having had the last 3 days off. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a losing home record while the Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Timberwolves are an outstanding 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 versus NBA Central division foes, and they've had plenty of success against Milwaukee, going 23-11 SU & 22-10-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings. The Wolves have won 4 straight in the series and should be able to make it 5 in a row in this advantageous scheduling spot. Pound Minnesota.

5* WISEGUY NBA "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Kings/Pelicans UNDER 203.5

Bottom Line: We saw 206 points scored when these teams met last week, but I expect defensive adjustments to be made and this one to come in comfortably under the number. Eric Gordon scored 17 points in that contest but won't be available here. The Kings aren't an overly aggressive defensive team. They prefer to pack it in and force opponents to wind down the shot clock. That bodes very well for us as their approach slows down the game and prevents easy transition opportunities for the opposition. The numbers support this too as the Kings are 17-5 UNDER after 4 straight games of forcing 14 turnovers or less under coach Malone. Rebounding is a big part of unders plays. The Kings are one of the best in the league on the boards and that limits second chance opportunities for their opponents. When the total is 200 or higher for a Tuesday game, playing the UNDER on a team like Sacramento that outrebounds its opponents by an average of 3.0 per game or more has resulted in a 61-29 record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -2.5

Bottom Line: New Orleans got nothing out of its running game last week, and the result wasn't good. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they tend to be at their best offensively when they have a little more balance than they did against the Bengals. They rushed for just 75 yards in that game and weren't at all satisfied with the result. However, the Saints are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 rushing yards or less. They have bounce back to win by an average of 19.5 points in this spot. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound New Orleans.

5* WISEGUY SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: This is a problematic spot for Dallas, which is playing a true road game for the first time in over a month and is no doubt already thinking about a Thanksgiving showdown with the Eagles. The Cowboys have had a week off following their overseas trip, and while a bye week can be a good thing this time of year, it can also be a bad thing. I think it's the latter in this case because the Cowboys aren't chomping at the bit to face a team they defeated by double digits Oct. 19. I really think the Giants will treat this game, and their season finale against Philadelphia, like the Super Bowl. The Giants are an impressive 29-17 ATS when out for revenge under coach Coughlin. They are also 16-7 ATS under their coach when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. Dallas is a weak 19-32 ATS when laying points with Romo under center. Playing against road favorites off a win by more than 10 points that allow 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team that gives up 23-27 ppg. Pound the G-Men.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +6

Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Portland. The Blazers are on a 12-26 ATS slide after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Celtics are 9-1 in the last 10 home meetings in the series. Pound Bean Town.

5* WISEGUY NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +3

Bottom Line: This will be a tough encore for Washington after upsetting Cleveland last night. The Wizards are on a 5-16 ATS slide in road games off an upset win of 10 points or more at home. Kidd has shown he can make proper adjustments and motivate his teams after they take it on the chin. His teams are 13-3 ATS off a road loss of 10 points or more. Pound Milwaukee.

5* WISEGUY LETDOWN GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +6

Bottom Line: I see Miami suffering a letdown after last week's crushing defeat to Florida State. Not only did Miami blow a 16-0 lead and an opportunity to knock off the undefeated defending national champs, it lost any chance of an ACC Coastal division title. Playing against road favorites that gave up 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game has resulted in a 50-19 ATS record since 1992 if they average 440 ypg or more on the season and are up against a team that allows 330-390 ypg. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS this season. Pound Virginia.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +6.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is off a 30-13 home win over Temple where it outgained the Owls by 193 yards on the ground. However, the Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 15.5 points in these games. They are also 0-6 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 12.5 points in these games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Fighting Illini.

5* WISEGUY CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Jose State +14.5

Bottom Line: Utah State is getting a little too much respect from odds makers tonight. SJSU hasn't lost by more than 14 points in any of its 6 conference games this season. That's a 6-0 trend I can get behind. The Spartans are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound SJSU.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Following a big upset victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs are in a letdown situation, especially with the tendency for them to look ahead to next week's showdown with Denver. Playing against road teams that are coming off an upset victory on their home field, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 106-53 ATS record since 1983. Zooming in, playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home that has a winning record on the season has resulted in a 31-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Raiders.

5* WISEGUY NBA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK on Pistons +3

Bottom Line: The Pistons are showing exceptional value in the home underdog role as this has been a matchup dominated by the home team. The home squad is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.0 points. Pound the Pistons.

5* Wiseguy MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio +3

Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more that are matched up with a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons if the team we are fading allowed an average of 6.25 yards per play or more last game. The Bobcats are on a perfect 7-0 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750. Pound Ohio.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets +12.5

Bottom Line: This is a look-ahead spot for Cleveland, which already has a comfortable win over Denver and has the reigning champs up next. Not only is this a revenge spot for Denver, it's a bounce-back spot after yesterday's 16-point loss at New York. Playing double-digit road dogs off a loss of 15 points or more that are up against a team that has posted a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games has resulted in a 27-6 ATS record since 1996. Pound the Nuggets.

5* Wiseguy AFC *BEST BET* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: Look for Cleveland to suffer a letdown after last week's gigantic win over the Bengals. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record. The Texans are making the switch to Mallet at the right time. He's very familiar with Bill O'Brien's offense from their time together in New England, and he's had an extra week to get all the first team snaps. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland and are catching the Browns at a good time.

5* Wiseguy NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +4.5

Bottom Line: Look for San Francisco to suffer a letdown after last Sunday's huge overtime win in New Orleans. Playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset victory has resulted in a 262-181 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing on teams that have been beaten by 49 points or more against the spread in their last five games, provided they are playing a conference opponent, has resulted in an 81-44 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Giants have had San Francisco's number and are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Pound the Giants.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Auburn after fumbling away a comeback victory and a spot in the football playoff last week. The Bulldogs will have no problem getting up for this one. As you recall, they were gut-punched by Auburn on a tipped 73-yard TD with 25 seconds left last November. 7 games or more into the season, playing against road dogs that average 6.2 yards per play or more and have averaged 525 or more total yards over their last 2 games has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1992, provided they are up against a team that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Georgia.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Wizards -8.5

Bottom Line: This is a bad spot for Orlando, which will be playing for the 4th time in 5 days and the 8th time in 12 days. Washington had 3 days of rest prior to its last game and 2 days of rest prior to this one. It gets 3 more days off after this game so it has no reason to hold anything back. The Wizards won in Orlando by 7 points earlier this season, but that win was the 2nd game of a road back-to-back. This is a much better spot. The Wizards are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the Magic with these wins coming by an average of 9.6 points. The Wizards are also 5-0 in their last 5 home games against the Magic with these victories coming by 14.4 points on average. Pound Washington.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -8

Bottom Line: This is Stanford's last home game of the season, and it will make it count. The Cardinal still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be highly motivated. They should also be the more prepared side with last week off to focus solely on this contest. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they did not cover. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after playing their last game on the road. Utah has really struggled to stop the run lately, not a good sign considering it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Pound Stanford.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Tulsa/Central Florida UNDER 56.5

Bottom Line: We are getting a very generous number because Tulsa has been over the total in 8 of 9 games this season and Central Florida has finished over the total in 3 of its last 4. The Knights had arguably their worst defensive performance of the season last game, giving up 37 points in a loss at lowly Connecticut. Now home, where they are allowing only 14.5 ppg, and having had all of last week off to focus on Tulsa, I expect to see the Knights turn in one of their best defensive performances of the season. It also works in our favor that Central Florida isn't strong offensively. It ranks 115th in the country with just 330.1 ypg. Tulsa is averaging just 20.5 ppg on the road. So rounding up, we have a range of 15-21 points based on what Central Florida gives up at home and what Tulsa scores on the road. This is significant because the Knights are 25-9 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. I'll bet the under based on this estimated stat trend.

5* Wiseguy NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Nuggets +3.5

Bottom Line: Indiana beat Miami in its last game, but it is a very poor 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. The Pacers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games, 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games versus teams with a losing record and 12-31 ATS in their last 43 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Denver is coming off a pair of double-digit defeats to Portland. However, road teams off 2 straight double-digit defeats are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons if their opponent is coming off a game where both it and its foe scored 90 points or less. This system is 15-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Denver.

5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4

Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +7

Bottom Line: The Pistons are off to a slow start, but they are a talented team and it's only a matter of time before they start clicking. They'll be confident here as they go up against a Washington team they have had a great deal of success against, and I'm not hesitating to take them getting a big number. They are 18-5 in the last 23 meetings. The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record while the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Wizards are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Pound the Pistons.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7

Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers.

5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5

Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions.

5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky -7.5

Bottom Line: When UTEP has been deemed an underdog by odds makers, it's been for good reason. The Miners are just 3-11 ATS when catching points under coach Kugler and have lost these games by 20.9 points on average. They are also 1-8 ATS under Kugler in road games falling after the first month of the season, losing these by an average of 28.9 points. Pound WKU.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +2

Bottom Line: Michigan handled Indiana last week, but I'm not sold that the Wolverines are back. They are a dismal 1-9 ATS in road games following a home win under coach Brady Hoke and have lost by an average of 8.3 points in these contests. Pound Northwestern.

5* Wiseguy NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Suns -5

Bottom Line: The Kings crushed Denver Wednesday but are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Suns lost by double digits to Memphis the same night but are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS at home when the total is between 205 and 209.5 under Hornacek, and they have won these games by 11.0 points on average.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wyoming +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Cowboys catching better than a TD at home. They were able to snap a 4-game skid last week with an impressive win at Fresno State. Momentum has meant a lot to Wyoming, which is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points and 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games after outgaining a foe by 175 yards or more. Playing on the road back-to-back weeks is never easy, especially on a short week when the last game was a lengthy trip (Hawaii in this case). To make matters worse the Aggies are on their 4th QB. Utah State handled the Cowboys last season, but that ensures us that Wyoming will be looking for payback. Pound the Cowboys.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wake Forest +21

Bottom Line: Clemson is being overvalued on the road considering it has only 1 win of more than 21 points against FBS competition this season. Wake Forest has just 2 defeats of more than 21 points this season and has put forth some quality efforts when the odds have been stacked against it, going 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog this season. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite as the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. The Demon Deacons have been smacked by Clemson the past 2 seasons so they'll draw a little added incentive from those defeats. Pound Wake Forest.