Winning Sports Picks

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers -1.5

The Carolina Panthers were decimated by injuries last year.  Most notably, they were 3-2 in games in which Christian McCaffrey played, and 2-10 without him.  They also got terrible quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.  Baker Mayfield is a huge upgrade at quarterback.

The Panthers upgraded the offensive line big-time.  They added two interior linemen in Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman, who are going to be major upgraded.  The biggest upgrade could be left tackle Ikem Dkwonu, who they took with the 6th pick in the first round.  RT Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position.

Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis should form a solid pass rush that saw the Panthers finish in the Top 10 in pressure rate in 2021 despite trailing in most games.  The secondary will be a strength with 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn at CB and 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn at safety.  Chinn will play next to Xavier Woods, who has been solid for the Cowboys and Vikings in recent seasons.  Donte Jackson was awarded a $35 million contract for his play and is one of the more underrated corners in the league.

Speaking of poor QB play, the Cleveland Browns are going to have that this season.  They mortgaged the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, only to see him get suspended for the first 11 games of the season.  That means Jacoby Brissett will start for them.  Brissett has had his opportunity in the NFL, and he has never proven to be a reliable starter in this league.  He doesn't have great weapons outside of Amari Cooper, either.

You know Baker Mayfield is going to be 100% dialed in for this game to get revenge on the Browns for trading him.  He was even quoted as saying "I'm going to fuck them up" when asked about playing his former team.  I think Matt Rhule is fit to be an NFL coach because players love him, and if injuries break his way finally, he could be in the running for Coach of the Year honors.

The Browns are 0-15-1 SU & 4-12 ATS in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Panthers basically just have to win this game to cover.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL.  They also have two of the best defenses in the league.  That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium.

Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season.  Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road.  The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season.  They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year.

Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter.  He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson.  The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability.  Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years.

Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +8

The Houston Texans come into the season undervalued after going just 4-13 last season.  But Lovie Smith has this team on the rise and they played very well on the preseason.  Not to mention, QB Davis Mills finished strong last year and is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Mills completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie last year.  Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is getting rave reviews in camp and could win Rookie of the Year honors.  Houston has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The left side is solid with Laremy Tunsil and first-round rookie Kenyon Green.

Houston has very good offensive and defensive lines, which is why they are underrated coming into the season with the lack of big names.  Jonathan Greenard had eight sakcs in 12 games last year.  Jerry Hughes comes over from the Buffalo Bills after a great nine-year run with the team.  Maliek Collins is well-rounded on the interior.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Indianapolis Colts this year.  They somehow blew their chance at making the playoffs by losing to the Jaguars in Week 18.  Carson Wentz is gone, and now in comes the veteran Matt Ryan.  Remember, Ryan had all the weapons he could ask for in Atlanta and wasn't able to do anything with them aside from the one Super Bowl Run that was aided by Kyle Shanahan calling the plays.  He'll be better under Frank Reich, but Ryan is far past his prime.

The losses were big in the offseason with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Jack Doyle CB Rock Ya-Sin and OT Eric Fisher all gone.  The Colts have spent three early draft choices on defensive linemen in recent offseasons, yet they finished dead last in pressure rate last season.  They traded Ya-Sin to the Raiders for Yannick Ngakoue.  He will get a pass rush, but he gets trampled against the run.

The Colts have been slow starters going 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games.  Divisional underdogs are 28-9-2  ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. AFC South foes.  Asking the Colts to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to cover in Week 1 is asking too much.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* Mississippi State/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +11

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I backed Arizona last week as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Fans are excited about this team finally, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere in Tucson Saturday night with an 11:00 PM EST kick.  That's a very late start for a Mississippi State team that is in the Eastern time zone and won't be used to it.  I like this Mississippi State team, but they should not be laying double-digits on the road to the Wildcats in Week 2.  The Bulldogs beat a Memphis team last week that is way down this year and is getting too much respect for that blowout home victory.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/UTEP UNDER 47

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in Week 2.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  It will be tough sledding again this week against a UTEP defense that only allowed 25.2 points per game last season and brought back eight starters from that defense.

UTEP's defensive numbers are inflated this season because they have played two great offenses in North Texas and Oklahoma.  Don't be surprised to see them hold this awful Aggies offense to 14 points or fewer this week as this is a big step down in class.  I also expect UTEP to score more than the 13.0 points per game they are averaging through two games, but not enough to get this final score over the 47-point total.  They are a run-based team that lost their star receiver last year in Jacob Cowing, who had 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns.

UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3 last year for just 33 combined points, so there is familiarity with these teams which also favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -11

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 12-2 last year and should have won the Big 12 title.  But they got stopped on the goal line in four tries by Baylor in the title game.  They rebounded to beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and now they come back highly motivated to win the Big 12 in 2022.

Mike Gundy made a point of speeding up the offense to get this unit back to where it has been in years past.  That was on display in the opener as the Cowboys ran a play every 19 seconds, running 73 plays in 23:52 for 531 yards and 7.3 yards per play in their 58-44 win over Central Michigan in the opener.

That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and I think that misleading result is providing us with some line value this week, because Oklahoma State failed to cover the 20.5-point spread.  The Cowboys led 51-15 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  Central Michigan scored most of their points against the Cowboys' backups.

Conversely, I think Arizona State is getting too much respect this week after covering as 25.5-point favorites in a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona last week.  But make no mistake about it, the Sun Devils look like one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season, and that will show as the season goes on.

Herm Edwards is squarely on the hot seat entering his 5th season in Tempe.  He has just seven starters back as this is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country.  He lost a ton of players to the transfer portal, including QB Jayden Daniels.  Each of the top four receivers and each of the top three rushers are gone.  Seven of the top nine tacklers are gone on defense.

The atmosphere will be great for this Saturday night game in Stillwater.  The Cowboys are going to keep that fast-paced offense going and run Arizona State off the field.  The conservative Sun Devils won't be able to play catch up like Central Michigan did, and I don't expect the Cowboys to call off the dogs so early after what happened last week.  Oklahoma State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +23.5

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.  That has proven to be the case thus far as they are 2-0 ATS and undervalued.

Connecticut jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Utah State in the opener and eventually lost 31-20, covering easily as 23.5-point underdogs.  I had them at +28 in that game as a lot of money came in on them.  UConn went on to cover as 20.5-point favorites in a 28-3 win over Central Connecticut State last week.  Now this will be their third game because they were one of the few teams to play in Week 0, which is an advantage for them.

Syracuse is getting too much respect for its 31-7 upset win over Louisville as 5-point underdogs last week.  Louisville gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  This is a Syracuse team that went 5-7 last year with its only blowout win by this kind of margin coming against FCS Albany.  While they may be improved, they should not be 23.5-point favorites here.  This is now a sandwich game and a bad spot for them coming off a conference win against Louisville, and with Purdue on deck next week.

Syracuse is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout upset win by 21 points or more as an underdog, and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog.  Dino Babers is 0-8 ATS after allowing 9 points or fewer last game as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +13.5

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

I am high on West Virginia compared to the market, and I cashed them as 7.5-point underdogs in their opener in a 7-point loss to Pittsburgh.  But they were in control of that game and let it slip away after a wide open receiver dropped an easy catch, and it was intercepted returned for a TD in the final minutes.  

That was a deflating loss in the Backyard Brawl rivalry, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team like WVU twice.  Don't be surprised if Kansas pulls this upset after only losing by 6 to WVU last year.  This is a hangover spot for the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks are live underdogs this week, and I expect them to be live underdogs a lot this season.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Virginia/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Illinois -3.5

Illinois improved last season down the stretch in going 4-3 in their final seven games including upsets over Penn State and Minnesota as 24 and 14-point underdogs, respectively.  It's year 2 under Bret Bielema and he has 13 starters back plus Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

I've been impressed with Illinois in their first two games this season.  They crushed Wyoming 38-6 in the opener while outgaining them by 265 yards.  That's a Wyoming team that came back last week and upset Tulsa.  They should have beaten Indiana, outgaining them by 86 yards but blowing it late in the 4th quarter.  I think that loss has them a little undervalued coming into this week.  Illinois should be at least a 7-point favorite over Virginia.

Virginia is in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall in the offseason.  They also bring back just 10 starters for first-year head coach Tony Elliott.  They do have stud QB Brennan Armstrong back, but he has a lot on his shoulders.  Virginia is breaking in five new starters along the offensive line, and I love fading teams that are bad in the trenches.

While these teams are pretty evenly matched on offense, Illinois is going to have a huge advantage on defense.  Virginia gave up 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last year. They gave up 226 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Illinois is going to be able to run the ball at will on this Virginia defense.

The Cavaliers gave up 170 rushing yards and nearly 5.0 yards per carry in their 34-17 win over Richmond last week.  Illinois is only allowing 14.5 points, 287 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play through two games.  Illinois will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football and win this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup with plenty of room to spare.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* UNLV/Cal Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +13

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season.  Marcus Arroyo is in Year 3 here, and that's when coaches usually make their biggest leaps.  UNLV pulled upsets over Hawaii and New Mexico in its final two games last year.  They also lost in double-OT to Eastern Washington, by 7 to UTSA as 21-point dogs, by 4 to Utah State as 7-point dogs and by 8 to San Diego State as 10-point dogs.  Those last three teams were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.

Now Arroyo welcomes 12 starters back including QB Doug Brumfield, who showed out in the opener.  UNLV beat Idaho State 52-21 as 23-point underdogs.  They gained 554 yards of offense and outgained Idaho State by 313 yards.  Brumfield threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win.

California is not a team you can trust to lay double-digit points.  Like clockwork, they have a terrible offense and a great defense every season under Justin Wilcox.  They have averaged 23.8 points per game or fewer in four consecutive seasons, while allowing 26.5 points per fewer each of the last four years.  Wilcox is on the hot seat entering Year 6, and he has one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.

Cal did manage to cover in a 34-13 win over UC-Davis as 14-point favorites in the opener.  But that game against a FCS opponent was much closer than the final score would indicate.  California only outgained UC-Davis by 28 yards.  That misleading result now has California laying too many points against UNLV this week.

UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  California is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rebels are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more.  Take UNLV Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Pitt ABC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  I successfully faded them in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites against West Virginia.  While they won that game 38-31, they had no business winning it as West Virginia was in control until throwing a pick 6 off a wide open receivers hands in the final minutes.  West Virginia outgained them by 18 yards and Pitt's offense was held to just 384 total yards.  Pitt also suffered some key injuries in that game.  It was a big rivalry game in the Backyard Brawl, and they won't be nearly as motivated as they were to win that game on a standalone Thursday Night game.

Tennessee will be the more motivated team looking for revenge from a 41-34 home loss to Pitt last year.  The Vols gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  While Pitt is on the decline, Tennessee is on the rise entering Year 2 under Josh Heupel.  The Volunteers welcome back 15 starters this season and are thriving in Heupel's system.

The Vols scored 45 or more points in four of their final five games last season.  QB Hendon Hooker is back along with eight starters on offense.  Hooker is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,945 yards and a ridiculous 31-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 616 yards and five scores as a dual-threat.

The Vols are off and running again this season beating Ball State 59-10 as 37-point favorties in the opener.  Hooker went 18-of-25 for 221 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, while also rushing for two scores.  He got pulled early in the 2nd half with the game in hand.

Tennessee is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Volunteers are favored for good reason on the road here as they are clearly the better team and that will show on the field.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +3

The Army Black Knights come back motivated after losing to a very good Coastal Carolina team 38-28 in Week 1.  Coastal Carolina was the team playing keep away as they ran 23 more plays than Army did.  Army's numbers were good as they averaged 7.3 yards per play on offense while giving up 6.2 yards per play on defensive, outgaining the Chanticleers by 1.1 yards per play.

Keep in mind Coastal Carolina had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which was a huge advantage.  Now UTSA only has one week to get ready for it and they won't be ready at all.  UTSA is also in a terrible spot.  They are coming off a triple-OT loss to Houston last week in which they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter.  I think there will be a hangover effect.  And this is a sandwich spot with an even bigger game against Texas on deck.

Army returned 14 starters this season, which is a ton for a service academy.  Army has now won at least 9 games in four of the past five seasons.  They are loaded again, and head coach Jeff Monken is doing a tremendous job with this program.

UTSA is getting a lot of respect after going 12-2 last season.  Amazingly, the Roadrunners went 6-0 in one-score games last year, so they were very fortunate in close games.  They returned 21 starters last season and now have just 13 starters back this season.  The defense is going to be a problem with just five starters back.

I think Army is going to be able to move it up and down the field on the Roadrunners and control the game with their offense.  They will wear down this UTSA defense as the game goes on, especially after having to play a triple-overtime game last week.  I expect Army to win outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.   Bet Army Saturday.

20* Louisville/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UCF -5.5

The UCF Knights are going to be one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country this season.  Gus Malzahn had a productive first season in Orlando last year in guiding the Knights to a 9-4 season despite suspect quarterback play.  Now Malzahn welcomes back 17 starters and some stud transfers, including QB John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss.

Plumlee showed out in the opener by throwing for 308 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 86 yards and another score to flaunt his dual-threat ability.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 and covered the 43.5-point spread.  Now with a real quarterback and a veteran, loaded roster, the Knights are going to be tough to tame in 2022.

The Louisville Cardinals have been a massive disappointment under head coach Scott Satterfield.  After going 8-5 in his first season, the Cardinals have gone 4-7 and 6-7 the past two seasons, respectively.  Many thought they would be better this season, but that is clearly not the case.

Louisville was steamed up to a 5.5-point favorite at Syracuse in the opener.  They lost 31-7 and were outgained by 115 yards.  They gave up 449 yards to what was a terrible Syracuse offensive last season.  And their supposedly high-powered offense was only held to 334 total yards.  Malik Cunningham threw for only 152 yards and two interceptions in the defeat.

UCF wants revenge from a 42-35 loss at Louisville last season.  UCF was a 7-point favorite in that game, now they are only a 5.5-point favorite at home in the rematch.  And clearly the Knights are improved this season while the Cardinals are no better than they were last year, and maybe worse.

UCF has one of the best home-field advantages in the country in the Bounce House.  It's going to be even more of an advantage for this stand-alone Friday night game on National TV.  Fans are hyped about this team, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for Cunningham and Louisville to deal with.

Louisville is 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 275 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  They held South Carolina State to 91 total yards and outgained them by 509 yards.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Bills/Rams 2022 NFL Season Opener on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL to open the season in my opinion.  They should have won the Super Bowl last year, and they come back highly motivated to do so this year.  They get to open the season with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which has only added fuel to their fire all offseason getting prepared for this game.

Buffalo is perhaps the only team in the NFL that I'm certain has a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense.  Josh Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions last year, while completing 69.2% of his passes and also taking fewer sacks.  The offensive line got two upgrades this offseason in Rodger Safford and David Quessenberry, both formerly of the Titans.  They have a bonafide star receiver in Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis showed he could be the No. 2 with 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs.  They added Jamison Crowder, which is an upgrade over the departed Cole Beasley in the slot.

The Bills had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and also were No. 1 in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.  Well, they got even better in that department in the offseason by signing Von Miller to a $120 million contract in the spring.  The one weakness on Buffalo last season was stopping the run, and they shored that up by adding DaQuan Jones, who will start next to Ed Oliver at defensive tackle.

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  And the losses are huge for the Rams as they part ways with the aforementioned Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp.  Many has said he won't be the same quarterback as last year, while some say he looks perfectly fine leading up to the opener.  Either way, there will be a rust factor, and it's definitely a concern for the Rams at the very least.

I think the Bills are the hungrier, more ready team for Week 1 given all that has taken place in the offseason.  Buffalo is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -22

The Clemson Tigers are undervalued to open the season.  They had not lost more than two games in any season since 2014.  But they went 10-3 last year and didn't win the ACC.  It was a rare down season for Dabo Swinney and company, and his players will come back highly motivated in the offseason to right the ship.

Swinney returns a whopping 15 starters this season, which is rare for a Clemson team.  Usually they lost a ton of players to the NFL Draft, but that wasn't the case this offseason.  They defense remains loaded after allowing 14.8 points and 305 yards per game last season.

The key is the offense, which will be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 26.3 points and 359 yards per game last season.  To compare, they averaged 43.5 points per game or more in three consecutive seasons prior to 2021.  There are nine starters back on offense and the chemistry will be great from the jump.

Georgia Tech will be the worst team in the ACC this season.  Geoff Collins just hasn't been able to fill the massive shoes of Paul Johnson.  Collins enters his fourth seasons here and the Yellow Jackets have won exactly three games in each of his first three seasons.  It's amazing he even still has a job.

The Yellow Jackets only return eight starters this season after having 17 back last year.  This is a rebuilding year, especially after losing the final two games of last season by a combined score of 110-0.  It won't get any better to start the 2022 campaign as they face a hungry, juggernaut of a team in Clemson.

Sure, Georgia Tech played Clemson tough in a 14-8 loss as 27-point dogs last season.  But that was an aberration and Clemson is much stronger this year.  Keep in mind Clemson won by 66, 38 and 28 points in the three meetings prior, respectively.  The one-sided dominance of this series returns in the 2022 opener.

This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  Clemson is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* FSU/LSU ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

I believe this will be a shootout tonight in the Superdome in New Orleans.  At the very least, these teams should combine to top this 50-point total.  I like the outlook of both of these offenses, and I have some questions about both the defenses.

Brian Kelly comes over to LSU and brings offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock with him from.  Denbrock spent the past five seasons as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator and was a great at getting the most out of Desmond Ridder's skill set.  Denbrock was an assistant under Kelly at Notre Dame from 2010 to 2016.

Jayden Daniels comes over from Arizona State to take over the quarterback position.  He was a dynamic dual-threat like Ridder at ASU, throwing for 6,025 yards and rushing for 1,288 more in his three seasons there.  He has arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country to get the ball to.  This is going to be an explosive LSU offense starting Week 1.

I do have questions surrounding LSU's defense that returns only five starters.  The defensive line will be fine, but there's a lot of inexperience in the back seven and they could be susceptible to some broken plays in the opener.  LSU allowed 34.9 points per game in 2020 and 26.6 points per game in 2021, so they haven't been nearly as dominant on this side of the ball in recent years.

The Florida State Seminoles enter Year 3 under Mike Norvell.  They should be hitting on all cylinders from the jump offensively.  Eight starters are back on offense including QB Jordan Travis, who made eight starters last year throwing for 1,539 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions, while also rushing for 530 yards and seven scores.  He has five of his top six receivers back and add in talented Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman.  Four starters are back along the offensive line.

Florida State has also been vulnerable defensively in recent years.  They have allowed at least 26.5 points per game in four consecutive seasons.  While they may be improved on that side of the ball this season with eight starters back, I can't see them holding LSU's talent in check in the opener.

The OVER is 7-2 in Seminoles last nine neutral site games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last six neutral site games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 September games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +42

I have consistently faded Alabama in these non-conference games as massive favorites over the last handful of years.  It's rinse and repeat with Nick Saban.  Put it on the overmatched non-conference opponent in the first half, then call off the dogs in the second half, especially in the 4th quarter.  That makes it very hard for them to cover these massive spreads even against these overmatched teams.

Utah State is a much better team than many of the non-conference foes the Crimson Tide have faced int he past.  The Aggies won the Mountain West last season with an 11-3 record out of nowhere in Blake Anderson's first season.  I realize they got fortunate to win a ton of close games, but the feat was still pretty impressive, especially beating San Diego State 46-13 in the MWC Championship Game and Oregon State 24-13 outright as 7-point dogs in the bowl.

I did fade Utah State with success in the opener by backing UConn.  But that was more because UConn was underrated coming into the season.  Utah State won that game 31-20 and still outgained UConn 542 to 364.  But since they failed to cover the 23.5-point spread, the Aggies are getting a little extra value this week against Alabama.  It also helps that they have a game under their belt, and they were probably looking ahead to this game as well.  Alabama has Texas on deck so could definitely be looking ahead to that game in the second half.

The Aggies bring back star QB Logan Bonner.  He threw for 3,628 yards with a 36-to-12 TD/INT ratio last season and can keep them within this number for four quarters.  Bonner went 20-of-29 for 281 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against UConn.  He has four starters and 102 career starts back on the offensive line and had a week to form some chemistry with all his new weapons.  Calvin Tyler, who rushed for 884 yards and seven scores last year, rushed for 161 yards against UConn.

The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 September games.  Utah State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Alabama is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 September games.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Mountain West opponents.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Ohio State ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 11-2 last season and were a blown 28-7 lead to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl away from 12-1.  That loss will have them motivated all offseason, especially after just missing out on the four-team playoff.  Brian Kelly did a great job here but left for LSU.

The cupboard isn't bare for new head coach Marcus Freeman.  He was the defensive coordinator for the Fighting Irish last season.  He welcomes back 15 starters and came through with a Top 5 recruiting class in 2022.  To compare, Ohio State only had the 11th-best recruiting class this season.

The offense has seven starters back, and while there are some new skill position players, the strength of the unit returns as four starters are back on the offensive line.  They paved the way for 224 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry while allowing just 13 sacks over their final eight games last season.  The defense has eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers back from a unit that gave up just 19.7 points per game last season and will be a strength.

Ohio State was also went 11-2 last season after a big comeback win over Utah in the Rose Bowl.  The Buckeyes will be good again with 14 starters back, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  Remember, they struggled to beat Minnesota by 14 and lost outright to Oregon in the first two weeks of the season last year.  They were also in a dog fight with Tulsa at home in the 4th quarter in their third game of the season.

Marcus Freeman and the rest of the staff have been informed of the point spread for this game, and they have stated they will use that as motivation letting their players know they are 17-point dogs.  I just like the motivation of this Notre Dame team after that tough Fiesta Bowl loss and with everyone already counting them out.  I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder and talent-wise, this game is much closer than this 17-point spread would indicate.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Southern Miss +3.5

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hill.  Now Hill enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

I've been high on Liberty the past couple seasons because Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Unfortunately, the Flames are in a bit of a rebuilding year this season after going 10-1 in 2022 and 8-5 last year.  After having 20 starters back in 2021, the Flames only have 11 starters back in 2022.

They lose QB Malik Willis to the NFL and he was the key to their success the past two seasons.  He led them in rushing last year by over 400 yards.  The offense has some talent but will take a step back without Willis.  The bigger concern may be returning only four starters on defense.  The Flames lose four of their top five tacklers as well.  Two teams headed in opposite directions here in 2022.  I'll side with the team on the rise.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Troy/Ole Miss UNDER 57.5

Two teams that are loaded defensively this season square off in Week 1.  I think Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss get the reputation of being an offensive juggernaut and not enough credit on defense.  That was the case last season.

Ole Miss gave up just 24.7 points per game last season.  In fact, each of their final eight games last season saw 57 or fewer combined points, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Rebels return seven starters on defense and will be ferocious on that side of the ball again.

Not to mention, Ole Miss is going to take a huge step back on offense this season.  They lose QB Matt Corral, each of their top three receivers and each of their top three rushers.  Corral is a huge loss as he threw for 3,349 yards and 20 TD while also rushing for 614 yards and 11 TD.  USC transfer Jaxson Dart could be good, but he has some big shoes to fill.

Troy was a dead nuts UNDER team last season.  They only combined for 60-plus points with their opponents once in 12 games last season.  They had a woeful offense that averaged 22.8 points per game, and while they will be better with nine starters back, don't expect huge improvement.  The defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 26.1 points and 337 yards per game.  They will be able to hold Ole Miss in check with eight of their top nine tacklers back.

The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Trojans last 10 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Trojans last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Ole Miss' last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Georgia ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +17.5

Georgia comes into the 2022 season overvalued after finally winning the National Championship for the first time in 41 years.  The Bulldogs only return 10 starters from that team and lose nine players to the NFL on defense alone.  Not to mention, they have been feeling fat and happy all offseason and I question their motivation heading into the opener.

Mario Cristobal is a great recruiter but not a great head coach.  I don't think the Ducks are downgrading at all with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia, where he was the defensive coordinator the last three years and guided the nation's top D.  That also gives the Ducks an advantage in preparation as Lanning knows all of Georgia's players and schemes.

The cupboard is far from bare for Lanning as the Ducks return 15 starters this season.  They also add in Auburn transfer Bo Nix at quarterback.  He will be starting for a 4th consecutive season and is coming off his best year with 61% completions, 2,294 passing yards and an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season.  He is also a dual-threat that has rushed for 869 yards in his career.

Oregon is very strong in the trenches and that gives them a chance to hang with Georgia.  There are 86 career starts and four starters returning on the offensive line in what will be one of the nation's best units.  Four of the top six are back on the defensive line, plus they add in two Nebraska transfers and Sam Taimani from Washington.  They could be even better than last year on the D-Line despite losing All-American Thibodeaux.  This game will be much closer than the odds suggest.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +7

The disrespect the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting to open the season is alarming.  I'm shocked they are catching a touchdown on the road to the Arkansas Razorbacks.  Cincinnati made the four-team playoff last year and deservedly so with a 13-0 regular season before falling to Alabama in the playoffs, but playing them pretty tough.

Now the Bearcats return 13 starters this season and Luke Fickell is doing a tremendous job here recruiting and coaching them up.  They have eight starters back on offense, and although there is a drop off from Desmond Ridder to Eastern Michigan's Ben Bryant, I don't think it will be as significant as most are expecting.  They add in a 1,000-yard receiver from Hawaii in Nick Mardner and return all five starters up front, making this Fickell's best offensive line yet.

The Bearcats have allowed 16.8 and 16.9 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  There will be a small drop off here with only five returning starters.  They lost their top two defensive linemen, but add in Ohio State transfer Noah Potter.  Deshawn Pace (95 tackles, 9.5 TFL last year) is back at linebacker and welcomes his brother Ivan Pace (125 tackles, 13 TFL), who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year at Miami Ohio last year.  The drop off defensively won't be much.

Arkansas is getting some love after a surprising 9-4 season last year that ended with a 24-10 win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl.  But keep in mind that was a veteran Arkansas team that returned 19 starters.  Now the Razorbacks have just 11 starters back, and although QB KJ Jefferson is one of them, there are holes everywhere else.

The defense returns just four starters and loses four of its top five tacklers from a veteran unit that improved by 12.0 points per game allowed from 2020 to 2021.  They won't be nearly as good on this side of the ball in 2022.  They lose three of their top four receivers, including their start in Treylon Burks (1,104 yards, 11 TD last year), who was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.  This game will go down to the wire with the Bearcats likely pulling the upset.  Take Cincinnati Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona +6.5

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I'm not high at all on San Diego State this season.  Brady Hoke goes from having 17 starters back last season to just 12 starters back in 2022.  They lose leading rusher Greg Bell (1,091 yards, 9 TD) and three of their top four receivers on offense.  Only five starters are back on offense.  The defense will be solid again with seven starters back, but they do lose Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Thomas, who was also a second-team All-American.  The special teams also loses do-everything P/K Matt Araiza, who set the NCAA record for punting average (51.19).

San Diego State went 6-0 in one-score games last year.  That is almost unheard of.  So they were very lucky to have a 12-2 record.  They only outgained teams by 21 yards per game on the season.  So the Aztecs are going to take a step back, while the Wildcats are going to take a step forward.  I think this line should be much closer to PK or Arizona favored.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - a team that had a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse last season are 57-23 (71.2%) ATS since 1992.  Arizona was -17 in turnovers last year, so they are due for some positive regression in that department as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke -7

To be clear, I'm not high on Duke this season.  But I think this is a great 'buy low' spot on the Blue Devils coming off a disastrous 3-9 season where they opened 3-1 before losing their final eight games.  Longtime head coach David Cutcliffe was let go, and in comes the underrated Mike Elko to give them new life.  Elko has been a defensive coordinator at Wake Forest under Dave Clawson, at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly and at Texas A&M the last four years under Jimbo Fisher, so he is ready for this.

The cupboard is not bare for Elko as the Blue Devils return 11 starters and 50 lettermen this season.  He came through with the 48th-best recruiting class.  This was a young team last year despite most teams having almost everyone back, which was a big problem.  Four of the top five tacklers are back on defense, so Elko does have something to work with there and this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 39.8 points and 517 yards per game last season.

The offense is in good hands with six returning starters including four starters and 124 career starts along the offensive line.  The new offensive coordinator is Kevin Johns, who led Memphis to 30.1, 31.0 and 40.4 points per game the last three years.  Duke moved the ball fine last year at 418 yards per game, but they managed just 22.8 points per game.  They averaged 18.3 yards per point, which was the 6th-worst mark in the country, and those teams tend to bounce back.

To be clear, the Temple Owls are going to be one of the worst teams in the country again.  They went 1-6 in 2020 and it didn't go any better last year as they were 3-9 with two of their wins coming against Akron and Wagner.  They averaged 16.3 points per game and gave up 37.5 points per game last season, getting outscored by 21.2 points per game.

The head coaching carousel now sees Temple with its 6th head coach in 7 seasons.  First-hear head coach Stan Drayton comes over after serving as running backs coach at Texas the last five years.  This was one of the worst hires in the country.  While Drayton does have 14 starters back, he had just the 84th-best recruiting class.  There are 12 freshmen or sophomores projected to start for Temple in the opener.  This is a complete rebuilding job.

Temple is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Blue Devils are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 non-conference games.  Duke is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AAC opponents.  Bet Duke Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/Minnesota UNDER 53

Both Jerry Kill and PJ Fleck are big into playing defense and ball control.  I just don't see how they are going to combine to score more than 53 points in this one given their philosophy.  They also have the familiarity of Kill being a former head coach at Minnesota, so I don't expect Fleck to try and run it up on him, either.  This game will slow to a snail's pace in the second half.

Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They can keep Minnesota in check, but I don't see them scoring much at all after managing just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

Minnesota is a 37-point favorite in this game.  Again, Fleck won't be looking to keep scoring late.  Minnesota allowed just 17.3 points and 279 yards per game last season as one of the nation's top defenses.  The Gophers managed just 25.5 points and 360 yards per game last season offensively, so it's not like they are that potent on that side of the ball.  They return just one starter along the offensive line.  They prefer to run the ball and will try and get the ground game going in Week 1, which will help shorten the game as well.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (New Mexico State) - in the first two weeks of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games, with nine or more defensive starters returning are 70-33 (68%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last four home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* West Virginia/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

Neal Brown enters his fourth season at West Virginia.  After going 5-7 his first year, he has taken the Mountaineers to bowl games each of the past two seasons.  He is doing a great job in recruiting, which is why I'm not concerned at all that the Mountaineers only return 11 starters.  Brown came through with the 27th-best recruiting class in 2022, while Pitt was 57th.

They will be much better offensively with seven starters back.  All five starters return on the offensive line.  Jarrett Doege was holding them back at QB and has transferred.  In comes JT Daniels, who made seven starts at Georgia and came over from USC.  The new offensive coordinator is Graham Harrell, who worked with Daniels at USC so there will be familiarity with the new offense.

The Mountaineers only return four starters on defense, but eight of the top 10 defensive linemen return and this will the strength of the stop unit.  Brown hit the transfer portal hard to fill out the rest of the defense, getting MLB Lee Kpogba from Syracuse, NB Jasir Cox from North Dakota State, CB Rashad Ajayi from Colorado State, SS Marcis Floyd from Murray State and FS Hershey McClaurin from JUCO.  I think the defense will be much better than everyone anticipates as the Mountaineers have been solid on this side of the ball all three seasons under Brown.

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  They should not be laying over a touchdown to an underrated West Virginia team.  This is a heated rivalry as the Backyard Brawl returns for the first time since 2011.  Pitt won't have that big of a home-field advantage for this one, either.  Narduzzi is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 September games.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Connecticut +28

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense, and they have Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson at quarterback to revive the offense.  They can only be better on both sides of the football.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.

Utah State is getting a lot of love to open the season after winning the Mountain West last year and going 11-3.  But keep in mind this was a veteran team last year with 19 returning starters.  Now the Aggies have just 12 returning starters in 2022 and only 34 lettermen coming back.

While the Aggies due have QB Logan Bonner back, they lost each of their top three receivers whoe combined for over 3,3300 yards and 31 touchdowns.  There will be some chemistry issues with Bonner and his receivers to start the season.

Defensively, the Aggies are sure to take a step back as well.  They return just five starters on that side of the ball and lose four of their top five tacklers.  Despite winning 11 games last year, keep in mind that the Aggies rarely blew out anyone as they had just two wins by this kind of margin.  It's asking too much of them to win by more than four touchdowns to beat us in the opener.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Nebraska 2022 CFB Season Opener on Northwestern +13.5

Everything went wrong for Northwestern last season.  They finished just 3-9 while having an inexperienced team with eight returning starters.  Now they have 14 starters back and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to start the season.  Pat Fitzgerald teams are always at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.

We saw this happen a few years ago when the Wildcats went from 3-9 in 2019 to 7-2 in 2020 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.  Expect a similar turnaround in 2022 with all of the experience the Wildcats return.  They have nine starters back on offense and should be greatly improved on that side of the ball.

QB Ryan Hilinski was one of the top recruits in the country when he came out of high school and signed with South Carolina.  He was in the midst of a QB carousel at NW last year as three guys made starts.  Now the job looks to be his from the get go.  He'll have 1,000-yard rusher Evan Hull to hand the ball off to, plus all of his top receivers back outside of Stephon Robinson.  110 career starts return along the offensive line and this could be Fitzgerald's best O-Line in his 17 years here.

There are five starters back on defense.  The Wildcats had allowed 23.6 PPG or fewer in six consecutive season before allowing 29.0 PPG last year.  That's unacceptable under Fitgerald.  This will be one of the most improved defenses in the country with six of the top nine tacklers back.

Once again, Nebraska comes into the 2022 season with massive expectations that are unwarranted.  Scott Frost has gone just 15-29 in his four seasons here despite big expectations every season.  The Huskers are 5-20 in one-score games under Frost, and I expect this game to go down to the wire as well.

The Huskers only return 12 starters and have a ton of new faces this season through the transfer portal.  It will take them a few games to live up to their full potential.  Remember, they lost outright as 7-point road favorites at Illinois 30-22 in the opener last season, and that was Bret Bielema's first game as Illinois head coach.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in season openers under Frost and are just 1-7 ATS in their first two games.

Northwestern is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four meetings decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Huskers are once again getting too much love to open the season, while the Wildcats are being grossly disrespected due to last year's results with a very young team.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl 56 No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5

Note: Scroll down for my Top 15 Prop Bets!

The Cincinnati Bengals have been grossly undervalued all postseason and even at the end of the regular season.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone loss came to the Browns in Week 18 in a meaningless game after they had already clinched the division.

After beating the Raiders 26-19 at home in the opening round, the Bengals have proven their toughness on the road by going into Tennessee and winning outright 19-16 as 4-point underdogs.  Then they trailed 21-3 at Kansas City, only to outscore the Chiefs 24-3 the rest of the way to pull the 27-24 upset as 7-point underdogs in OT.

Clearly, the Bengals feel like they are invincible right now after that comeback against the Chiefs.  They won't be phased by this being a 'road' game with the Rams hosting the Super Bowl.  Joe Burrow has made me a lot of money dating back to college, and I'm riding with him here.  He'll make enough plays to keep the Bengals in this game for four quarters, and he'll lead a comeback if he needs to.

But what is getting overlooked and has with this team all season is how well the defense has played.  The Bengals have allowed 24 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are allowing just 21.8 points per game this season, which is right on par with the Rams' 21.4 points per game.  Yet the Rams are perceived to have the much better defense due to all the stars they have.  For the Bengals defense, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  They have been Top 5 in offense and Top 5 in defense in basically every major category since their bye week. 

The Rams benefited from getting to face a reeling, banged up Cardinals team, a depleted Bucs team and a 49ers team with arguably the worst quarterback in the playoffs.  This will be their toughest test of the postseason.  The Bengals had no such luxury as the Titans were as healthy as they had been all season, and the Chiefs were pretty much at full strength as well.  And both wins came on the road in hostile atmospheres.

Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons.  The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in road games this season.  Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Rams) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games this season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Simply put, the Rams shouldn't be more than 2.5-point favorites in this game.  There's value with Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 Sunday.

My Top 15 Prop Bets in Order: (Most can be found at DraftKings)

1. Highest Scoring Half: 2H -120

2. No Score in 1st 6:00 of Game: -130

3. Team to Call 1st Timeout: Rams -140

4. Bengals Longest Punt O 52.5 Yards: -125

5. Team with the Longest Gross Punt: Bengals -115

6. Joe Mixon O 3.5 Receptions: -145

7. Joe Mixon O 26.5 Receiving Yards: -105

8. Will Rams Convert a 4th down: No +135

9. Cam Akers U 63.5 Rushing Yards: -110

10. Joe Mixon U 60.5 Rushing Yards: -115

11. Matthew Stafford U 5.5 Rushing Yards: -120

12. Cooper Kupp Longest Reception O 28.5 Yards: -145

13. 1st play of game: Pass +110

14. Rams U 3.5 Sacks: +105

15. Sony Michel O 18.5 Rushing Yards: -115

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3.5

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season.  They were a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys and Packers, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Rams as well. They are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  

They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.  They went on the road again and trailing 10-3 late in the 4th quarter, got a blocked punt return TD to tie the game, eventually beating the Packers on a game-winning field goal at the gun.  Holding the Cowboys to 17 points and the Packers to 10 points is no small feat and shows how good this defense is playing right now.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).  They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games.  And with an elite defense and running game, we've seen before that teams can make deep runs in the playoffs.  The 49ers feel like they are playing with house money with the way they have beaten the Rams, Cowboys and Packers in three straight tight, one-score games.  They feel like they can win in any situation now, and getting 3.5 points with them here is a great value.

The 49ers simply own the Rams.  They have gone 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with five outright wins as underdogs.  Their defense is a nightmare matchup for the Rams as they have held them to 311 or fewer yards in five of those six meetings, including 265 and 278 in their two meetings this season.  They can get pressure by rushing only four, and Matthew Stafford has been great against the blitz, which is why he dissected both the Cardinals and Rams, two blitz-heavy teams.  He won't have that luxury against the 49ers, who can get pressure with four with their dominant defensive line.

The 49ers have proven they can run on the Rams as they have rushed for at least 107 yards in nine of their last 10 meetings.  That allows them to control the ball and keep the Rams off the field.  Jimmy G is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing the ball over the middle, and the Rams are one of the worst defenses in the NFL at defending passes over the middle.  That's another reason this is a nightmare matchup for Los Angeles.

The Rams will have zero home-field advantage in this game, which is why this line shouldn't be 3.5.  It should be closer to PK.  You could hear the 49ers fans over the Rams fans in that Week 18 game, and this is a short trip for 49ers fans again to Los Angeles.  They will make the trip, and this will be more of a 50-50 crowd than this line indicates.  I also love the fact that the 49ers have an extra day to get healthy and prepare for the Rams after playing on Saturday, while the Rams played on Sunday.  San Francisco needs this extra time playing in its 4th consecutive road game, and the short travel doesn't really make this a road game.

Don't buy into the hype that it's tough to beat a team three times in the same season.  Teams that are 2-0 in the regular season against an opponent have gone 14-7 SU in the playoffs when facing them for a 3rd time.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  The 49ers are 8-3 SU in road games this season and have played their best football on the highway.  Their run continues as they just seem to be a team of destiny this season.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54

The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the AFC Championship in a rematch from a 34-31 thriller back on January 2nd.  The Bengals had 475 yards while the Chiefs had 414 yards in an absolute shootout that saw 65 combined points.  It should be more of the same here in the rematch as we'll side with the OVER 54.  The weather report for Kansas City is great for this time of year with sunny skies, temps in the 40's and less than 5 MPH winds.  That will help us cash this OVER as well.

Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming.  He has led them to 30.0 points per game in his last four starts while throwing for 1,563 yards and a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  I expect the Bengals to be playing from behind and Burrow to have to try to keep them in it, which he is more than capable of doing.  

He'll be up against a Kansas City defense that was hit hard by injuries in the secondary against the Bills and could be missing a couple key players.  This is an overrated KC defense as it is ranking 28th in the NFL in allowing 5.8 yards per play.  Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns in that first meeting.

The Chiefs are humming on offense right now and are as healthy as they have been all season on this side of the ball.  They are scoring 37.3 points per game in their last seven games while winning six of those with their lone loss coming 31-34 at Cincinnati.  The Bengals have some key injuries along their front seven defensively that will make it even more difficult for them to tame this Kansas City offense.

The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven games overall.  The OVER is 8-1 in Chiefs last nine January games.  The OVER is 7-0 in Chiefs last seven vs. AFC opponents.  Kansas City holds nothing back offensively in the playoffs when games matter most, making them even more potent than during the regular season.  Burrow is more than capable of matching Mahomes score for score to help us cash this OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on OVER 54

Two of the best offenses in the NFL square off Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bills are putting up 29.4 points per game while the Chiefs are averaging 29.0 points per game this season.  Both offenses have been hitting on all cylinders here down the stretch with even better numbers.

Indeed, the Chiefs are scoring 36.5 points per game in their last six games.  The Bills are putting up 33.4 points per game in their last five games and just hung 47 on a very good New England defense.  Both teams will get their points, and which ever team is trailing is more than capable of catching up with a quick-strike offense.

The Bills do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they haven't faced many good offenses especially here down the stretch.  Their last five games have come against the Panthers, Patriots (twice), Falcons and Jets.  In the game prior they gave up 33 points and 488 total yards in a 33-27 loss to the Bucs.  Andy Reid and company can figure out their defense.  After all, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 32.2 points per game as a starter in the playoffs throughout his career.

The Bills will get their points against a soft Kansas City defense that ranks 28th in allowing 5.8 yards per play this season.  This is one of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.  The Bills shredded them in their first meeting this season in a 38-20 win for 58 combined points.  The Chiefs were held to 20 because they committed four turnovers, which won't happen again.  The previous meeting in the AFC Championship last year saw 62 combined points as well.  The books have set this number too low at 54 here.

The forecast looks great for a January game in Kansas City.  Indeed, temperatures will be in the 40's with less than 5 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  The OVER is 8-0 in Bills last eight games as underdogs.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six games overall.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Kansas City.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* 49ers/Packers FOX Saturday Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +6

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated playoff teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Green Bay Packers just as they were against the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  They came into the playoffs with a ton of confidence and it carried over into their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as 3-point dogs in which they were in control of the game the entire way.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).  They are also 4th in defensive success rate against the run and 4th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The 49ers have really gotten their running game going in recent weeks, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of their last six games.  That rushing attack consistently gives the Packers fits in the playoffs, which is a big reason Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 all-time against the 49ers in the postseason.  And the Packers rank 30th in defensive success rate against the run, making this a nightmare matchup for them.  Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in allowing 4.7 yards per carry.

The 49ers can take the same game plan they had against the Cowboys, which is control the game with their running game and play keep away from a potent Dallas defense.  And holding the Cowboys to just 17 points is no small feat as Dallas was the highest-scoring team in the NFL this season.  This defense can hold Aaron Rodgers and company in check as well, while the offense can control the ball with their running game and timely passes from Jimmy G.

Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are a big reason this line is as high as it is.  But Jimmy G just said Wednesday he is good to go, the 49ers certainly expect to have Bosa available, and Warner was seen jumping around on the sidelines late in that Dallas game so he will probably be a go as well.  I think as the injury report looks better for the 49ers late in the week, this line will drop as +6 is not the right line.  

These teams are pretty evenly matched and the Packers should be closer to a 3-point favorite given the bye week and the home-field advantage.  Consider the 49ers were 3-point home favorites in their first meeting this season, so this is a 9-point adjustment and clearly shows there's value on the road dog.

The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight January games.  San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  Everyone is making too big a deal of the Packers playing at home at Lambeau Field in the cold.  But the 49ers are actually built for cold outdoor games with the better running game and defense than the Packers.  They have been a much better bet on the road than they have been at home in recent years, and they just went on the road and beat the Rams and Cowboys both.  They are getting disrespected again here and will continue playing with that chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous road warriors.  Roll with the 49ers Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Titans OVER 47

It's going to be pretty perfect scoring conditions in Nashville for the month of January Saturday.  Temperatures will be in the mid-30's with less than 5 MPH winds.  These are two of the better offenses in the NFL, and both defenses are susceptible to the opposing offense's strengths.

Joe Burrow has this Cincinnati offense humming.  He has led their offense to 33.7 points per game in his last three starts while throwing for 1,215 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Bengals should be able to pass all over a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run, but ranks 25th against the pass in allowing 245.2 yards per game.  They gave up 306 passing yards to the 49ers and 289 more to the Texans in two of their last three games down the stretch.

The Titans are a dangerous offense when they have Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones all healthy.  Well, they haven't been healthy together for much of the season.  But they are entering the playoffs as Henry is expected to make his return.  And the Titans should be able to run all over a Cincinnati defense that ranks 17th in allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

But this Cincinnati defense just got even thinner and lost their best run stuffer in DT Larry Ogunjobi to a season-ending injury in the win over the Raiders last week.  They will also be without DT Mike Daniels, and they could be without DE Trey Hendrickson and DT Josh Tupou, who are both questionable.  The Titans should be able to run the football at will against this banged-up front seven, and that will set up big plays off play-action to Brown and Jones.

Tennessee is 13-2 OVER in its last 15 games after winning three of its last four games.  The Titans are 6-0 OVER in their last six games after leading their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tennessee.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Cardinals/Rams ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Rams simply own the Arizona Cardinals, and Sean McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury.  The Rams are 9-1 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals with all nine wins coming by 7 points or more.  The one loss came this season when the Rams were coming off a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs the previous week and were in a letdown spot early in the season.

That was back when Arizona was playing well.  The Cardinals have fallen flat on their faces since, and it has been yet another late-season collapse under Kingsbury.  He has been knowing for this dating back to his time at Texas Tech, and as you can tell he is one of my least favorite head coaches in the NFL.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five gams overall.  That includs an upset loss to Seattle as a 5.5-point home favorite, an upset loss to a short-handed Colts team as a 3-point favorite, an upset loss at Detroit by 18 as 13-point favorites and an upset home loss to the Rams by 7 as 3-point favorites.  The Rams made the proper adjustments in that 2nd meeting in a 30-23 win, and I trust McVay to have the right game plan to beat Arizona again.

It's not all Kingsbury's fault, though.  Injuries have played a big factor as they have been without DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt.  The defense has really taken a hit without Watt, and the offense is not close to how explosive it was when Hopkins was healthy.  Both James Conner and Chase Edmunds are banged up going into the playoffs, as is WR Rondale Moore with two of those three questionable.

The Rams have finished the season strong by going 5-1 SU in their final six games.  They won four of those five games by 7 points or more.  The lone loss came in OT to the 49ers in Week 18, which was predictable as there was a lot more at stake for the 49ers than there was for the Rams, and the 49ers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  A big reason the Rams are playing so well down the stretch is because they are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs, unlike Arizona.

Yards per play is one of the most important stats in predicting NFL games.  The Rams are elite in this aspect, ranking 4th at 6.0 yards per play on offense and 10th at 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play, which is one of the best marks in the league.  The Cardinals are 18th at 5.4 yards per play allowed on defense and 15th at 5.6 yards per play on offense, only outgaining teams by 0.2 yards per play.

The Rams don't always have the biggest home-field advantage in the regular season, but it will be a much bigger advantage in these playoffs.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Kingsbury is 2-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season as the coach of Arizona.  Arizona is 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss.  The Rams are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. NFC opponents.  Roll with the Rams Monday.

15* Steelers/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City -12.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are gassed.  They have played essentially six straight playoffs games.  They beat the Ravens by 1, lost by 8 at the Vikings after trailing 23-0 at halftime, beat the Titans by 6 after trailing 10-0 at halftime, lost 10-36 at Kansas City after trailing 36-3, beat the Browns 26-14 on Monday Night Football and beat the Ravens 16-13 in OT last week.

Those wins over the Titans, Browns and Ravens all come with asterisks and they barely won all three.  The Titans were missing AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Browns had just been eliminated from playoff contention and it was Big Ben's final home game, and the Ravens were ravaged by injuries and playing with a backup QB.  The Steelers are one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory.  Give them credit for winning these games, but they're not very good.  That's indicated by the fact that they have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.

Of course, the one blowout loss during this stretch came in that 10-36 road loss to the Chiefs.  And keep in mind the Chiefs didn't have Travis Kelce plus Tyreke Hill was limited due to injury and only had two receptions for 19 yards.  Now Kelce and Hill are both back healthy and this is going to be another blowout.

We saw the Chiefs crush the Raiders 41-14 on the road and come back home and beat the Raiders 48-9.  Sometimes, it's just a bad matchup for the opponent like it is for the Raiders.  And this is a terrible matchup for the Steelers.  Big Ben is only good at checking the ball down with his weak arm and cannot match Patrick Mahomes score for score.  In fact, Big Ben is averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt in his last six games.

This Kansas City offense has hit its stride down the stretch en route to going 9-1 SU in its last 10 games overall with its only loss coming at Cincinnati after blowing a double-digit lead.  Unlike Big Ben, the Bengals have the firepower with Joe Burrow and company to match the Chiefs score for score.  The Chiefs are averaging 35.4 points per game in their last five games.

This is an underrated Kansas City defense as well that has allowed 17 or fewer points in seven of their 10 games during this 9-1 run.  The Chiefs are also the fresher team having played on Saturday last week while the Steelers played on Sunday.  Again, the Steelers just don't have much left in the tank after going to overtime with the Ravens and playing so many tight playoff games here down the stretch.  The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams in these playoffs as well.

Double-digit favorites are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the wild card round since 2003.  Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS win.  The Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.  The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Kansas City.  We get a playoff-motivated Chiefs team here that will dominate from pillar to post this weekend.  Take the Chiefs Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers +3

The San Francisco 49ers are one of the most underrated wild card teams in the history of the NFL.  Their stats are elite, they are a lot healthier going into the playoffs than they were in the first half of the season, and they are a nightmare matchup for the Dallas Cowboys.  They are also 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall, outgained both opponents they lost to, and have outgained eight of their last nine opponents during this streak.

The 49ers already have playoff experience because their Week 18 game was a playoff game as they had to win to get into the postseason.  After trailing 17-0 in the first half, the 49ers stormed back and beat the Rams 27-24 (OT).  They trailed by 7 with under two minutes remaining and no timeouts, and drove the field to tie it and force OT.  They outgained the Rams by 184 yards and deserved to win.  It's safe to say the 49ers come into the playoffs now with a ton of confidence feeling like they can win under any circumstance.

Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in the NFL, and the 49ers are elite on both offense and defense.  Indeed, the 49ers rank 1st in the NFL at 6.1 yards per play on offense and 6th in the NFL at 5.1 yards per play allowed on defense.  They are +1.0 yards per play, which is the second-best mark in the entire league behind the Buffalo Bills (+1.1 YPP).

While the 49ers are one of the most underrated playoffs teams, the Cowboys are one of the most overrated.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on them after going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their five wins came against Washington (twice), Philadelphia's backups, a Giants team that has quit and a Saints team ravaged by COVID.

The loss came at home to the Arizona Cardinals 22-25 as 6.5-point favorites in which they were outgained by 98 yards.  That's a fellow NFC West team.  The Cowboys also have upset home losses to the Broncos as 10.5-point favorites and the Raiders as 7-point favorites in their last 10 games.  They just can't be trusted to lay a number at home against a team as good as the 49ers.

The 49ers are expected to get LT Trent Williams back this week and he is one of the best tackles in the game.  He helps a 49ers offensive line that ranks 1st in the NFL in run blocking according to pro football focus.  Dallas ranks 22nd against the run according to pro football focus.   That's why this is a nightmare matchup for the Cowboys.  The 49ers will be able to run the ball and control the game.  Jimmy G likes to throw the ball over the middle, which is Dallas' weakness against the pass whereas they are great at defending the pass outside the numbers.  

Jimmy G will have Kittle and Deebo Samuel open across the middle when he needs to throw.  These are two of the most underrated weapons in the game.  Kittle has 71 receptions for 910 yards and six touchdowns this season in just 14 games.  Samuel has 77 receptions, 1,405 yards and six scores while also rushing for 365 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 games.  RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TD) is also healthy now after playing in just 11 games this season.

The 49ers feel like they are free rolling after last week's comeback, while all the pressure is on the Cowboys to try and win a playoff game.  Dallas is just 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in the playoffs dating back to 1996, including 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS as favorites.  The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games with a line of +3 to -3.  The 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven January games.  San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight January games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* Patriots/Bills CBS Saturday Night BAILOUT on Buffalo -4

The Buffalo Bills have elite stats that would suggest they are the best team in the NFL.  Yards per play is arguably the most important stat in handicapping NFL teams.  Well, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in allowing just 4.6 yards per play on defense and 14th in averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense.  Their +1.1 YPP differential is the best mark in the entire NFL.

The Bills also average 28.4 points per game and 381.7 yards per game on offense and give up just 17.0 points per game and 272.8 yards per game on defense.  They are outscoring teams by 11.4 points per game and outgaining them by 108.9 yards per game on the season.  Simply put, they are an elite team and should be more than 4-point favorites over the Patriots.

The first meeting in Buffalo this season was fluky as it was hurricane winds and the Patriots won 14-10 while throwing the ball just three times.  The Bills took that loss personally and have been a different team since.  After losing 27-33 (OT) at Tampa Bay against the healthy defending champs at that time, they have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games while outgaining all four opponents, including the Jets by 371 yards last game in a misleading 27-10 win.

That also included a 33-21 win at New England in which they got their revenge and outgained the Patriots by 140 yards.  Wind wasn't a factor in that game, and the Patriots had to try and do more than just run the ball.  Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  Conversely, Mac Jones went just 14-of-32 passing for 145 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Jones is going to have to try and do more than he did in that first meeting in Buffalo.  Yes, it will be cold, but winds will be in single-digits which favors the Bills drastically.  The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game was Russell Wilson clear back in 2012.  Jones is still a rookie, and just because he plays for the Patriots doesn't mean he is going to overcome this trend.

The Patriots are reeling having gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming against the Jaguars.  Jones and the offense are a problem, but is a defense that has now allowed an average of 164 rushing yards per game in their last six games.  The Bills have rushed for 161.8 yards per game in their last five games, so they can also run the ball at will on the Patriots if they so choose instead of relying on Allen's arm.  They have so many ways to beat the Patriots and are better everywhere.

The Bills are legit Super Bowl contenders with their elite stats and playoff experience gained the last couple seasons.  Last year, they made the AFC Championship Game.  That's important because home teams coming off a loss in last year's conference championship are 44-8 SU & 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 tries.  The Bills are ready to take that next step, and the Patriots aren't good enough to do anything about is, especially with a rookie QB up against a veteran stud like Josh Allen.

Buffalo is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games.  The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards.  Buffalo is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 home games.  The Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. AFC East opponents.  Take the Bills Saturday.

20* Raiders/Bengals NFL Wild Card Opener on Cincinnati -5

The Cincinnati Bengals are rested and ready to pick up where they left off when they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games prior to Week 18 to seal the AFC North title.  They beat the Broncos 15-10 as 3-point road underdogs, the Ravens 41-21 as 7.5-point home favorites and the Chiefs 34-31 as 3.5-point home dogs to clinch the title.

The Bengals decided to rest their starters in a 16-21 loss at Cleveland in Week 18.  That was a wise move by Zac Taylor, who is among the favorites to win Coach of the Year.  Of course, franchise QB Joe Burrow was banged up against the Chiefs and Joe Mixon was out with COVID, so it was an easy decision.  But now the Bengals come back fresh and primed for a big effort at home against the Raiders on Saturday.

Conversely, this couldn't be a worse spot for the Raiders.  They had to win four straight games to close the season which were all basically playoff games.  All four wins came by 4 points or less as they were simply good at winning coin flips.  But they needed OT to beat the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and now the NFL has done them no favors by making them play the first wild card game Saturday afternoon.  They are gassed and have nothing left in the tank for the Bengals here.

The Raiders were in a similarly tough situation when they hosted the Bengals earlier this season.  They were coming off a Sunday night game against the Chiefs and they had a Thursday game on deck against the Cowboys.  Predictably, they fell flat and were crushed 32-13 by the Bengals in Las Vegas.  I think they get crushed again here in what is actually an even worse spot for them.

The Raiders have the worst run defense of all the playoff teams according to pro football focus.  Joe Mixon rushed for 123 yards and two scores against the Raiders in that first meeting.  And you know Joe Burrow is going to have another great game as he has been on fire down the stretch and has that big game experience by leading LSU to a national title.  This playoff atmosphere won't phase him.  

Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns without a pick against the Ravens in Week 16 and followed it up with 446 yards and four scores without a pick against the Chiefs in Week 17.  He now has an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last four games while completing at least 68% of his passes in all four games.  He is probably the single-most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now.

Las Vegas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win as a home underdog over a division opponent.  The Raiders are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bengals Saturday.

20* Alabama/Georgia Championship Game No-Brainer on Georgia ML -135

Let's start out by looking at this from a line value perspective.  Georgia was nearly a touchdown favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Now Georgia comes back as a 2.5 to 3-point favorite against Alabama in the rematch.  So strictly from a line value perspective, the price is right to pull the trigger on Georgia.

We are getting Georgia cheap on the Money Line because there is a lot of money on the Alabama Money Line, so I have chosen that route instead of laying the -2.5 or -3.  I fully expect them to win this game and have their revenge from the SEC Championship Game loss.  The fact of the matter is Georgia has been the better team all season, and they are ready to get their Alabama monkey off their back.

I took Alabama +6.5 in the SEC Championship Game for a couple different reasons.  But the main reason was that Alabama needed it like blood to get in the four-team playoff, while Georgia could lose and still get in.  Simply put, Alabama wanted that game more and it showed on the field as they won outright.

It's a role reversal here.  Now we are getting a max motivated Georgia team out for revenge and hungry for a National Championship.  And when Georgia has been max motivated, they have rolled all season.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have gone 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS in their other 13 games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game on the season.

I was way more impressed with Georgia's 34-11 win over Michigan than I was with Alabama's 27-6 win over Cincinnati.  That was a very good Michigan team, and the Bulldogs made them look like they didn't even belong on the field.  Alabama was in a dog fight with Cincinnati midway through the 3rd quarter, while the Georgia game was decided by halftime as they took a 27-3 lead and coasted from there.

Alabama passed all over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but it's not going to happen again.  Kirby Smart will make the proper adjustments, and he won't have to deal with one of Alabama's best receivers in John Metchie this time around after he suffered a season-ending ACL tear.  Metchie had six receptions for 97 yards and a score against Georgia in the first meeting.    Now the Bulldogs can focus their attention on stopping Jameson Williams, who had 68 receptions for 1,445 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.  

Metchie had 96 receptions for 1,142 yards and eight scores on the year and is a huge loss as he was Bryce Young's security blanket.  Also, RG Emil Cyiyor Jr. and RT Chris Owens exited the win over Cincinnati with injuries and are questionable to play.  They were already without C Darian Dalcourt and he's questionable to return as well.  That's not good news for the Crimson Tide being up against the best defensive line in the country in the Bulldogs.  Bet Georgia on the Money Line Monday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4

The New Orleans Saints are in must-win mode in Week 18 and actually have an excellent chance to make the playoffs.  They just have to beat the Falcons and have the 49ers lose on the road to the Rams to get in.  The 49ers are a decent-sized underdog to the Rams.  But first things first, and that's handling their business against the Falcons.

This is a terrible spot for the Falcons.  They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 29-15 loss at Buffalo last week.  There will be a hangover effect here, especially after blowing a 15-14 halftime lead and getting shutout after intermission.  Of course they would like to keep the Saints out of the playoffs, but I can't see them being all that motivated to do so.

And the fact of the matter is the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL and not good enough to do anything about it.  They are getting outscored by 8.5 points per game on the season.  The Falcons have been at their worst at home, going 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS with their only win coming against Tim Boyle and the Lions two weeks ago.  They were outgained by the Lions by 84 yards and should have lost that game.

The Saints are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have won every game that Taysom Hill has started here down the stretch with their only loss coming to the Dolphins when they were down to their 4th-string QB and missing a ton of players.  In fact, the Saints are 8-3 when Jameis Winston or Hill starts this season, and 0-5 in all other games.

The Saints should be able to run on Atlanta with Hill, Kamara and company.  The Falcons have now allowed 130 or more rushing yards in three straight games and an average of 175 rushing yards per game in their last three.

New Orleans has one of the best defenses in the NFL and should shut down this suspect Falcons offense.  The Saints rank 4th in scoring defense while the Falcons are 27th in scoring offense.  The Saints have held their last four opponents to an average of 9.8 points per game.

New Orleans is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games overall.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Atlanta.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* 49ers/Rams NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +5.5

The San Francisco 49ers are in must-win mode this weekend.  They need to win to get into the playoffs or have the Saints lose to the Falcons.  The Saints are 4-point favorites over the Falcons, so the 49ers don't want to rely on that.  They want to handle their business here Sunday and win this game outright against the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams have a lot less at stake.  They just have seeding in the NFC on the line.  I can't see them being max motivated here.  Plus, the Rams have been fortunate to win their last two games against the Vikings and Ravens as Matthew Stafford has committed six turnovers.  He isn't playing well, and he won't have much success against one of the best defenses in the NFL here.

Indeed, the 49ers not only have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.8 YPP).  That is the sign of an elite team and one that is way better than their 9-7 record would indicate.  The 49ers are led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 312.8 yards per game allowed.  They are outgaining their opponents by nearly 60 yards per game on the season, which is better than the Rams mark of 40 yards per game.

Simply put, Kyle Shanahan owns his disciple Sean McVay.  The 49ers have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four outright wins as underdogs.  That includes their 31-10 home win as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Stafford went 26 of 41 for 243 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in that defeat.

The Rams are 0-6 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season.  Los Angeles is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The 49ers are 6-0 ATS in thier last six January games.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 (82.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

The Chicago Bears are quietly playing their best football of the season here down the stretch.  They have won two in a row over the Seahawks as 7-point dogs and the Giants 29-3 as 7-point favorites with two different quarterbacks.  It hasn't mattered who is under center for them because their defense has been elite.

The Bears have now outgained six of their last eight opponents all by 54 yards or more.  The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 92 yards at Green Bay and by 14 yards at Seattle.  The Bears have the 5th-ranked unit in total defense at 315.8 yards per game allowed.

Chicago wants revenge from a 9-17 home loss to the Vikings in which they deserved to win on December 20th.  They had 370 total yards and held the Vikings to just 193 yards, outgaining them by 177 yards.  But they failed time and time again in the red zone.  They haven't forgotten, and I like their chances of winning this game outright let alone covering this spread Sunday as they get their revenge.

This is a terrible spot for the Vikings.  They were just eliminated from playoff contention with their emphatic 37-10 loss at Green Bay last week.  Their defense was shredded for 481 total yards and they were without Kirk Cousins due to COVID.  I just can't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to face the Bears.  They won't care about this game nearly as much as they are leading on in the media.  The Bears will show up just as they have every week here down the stretch.

Plays against home teams (Minnesota) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 60-22 (73.2%) ATS since 1983.  The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Dallas Cowboys are playing to win this game to try and improve their seeding in the NFC and sharpen up following a home loss to the Cardinals last week.  Their offense is mostly healthy and should put up plenty of points on this Philadelphia Eagles defense to get the OVER.

It's uncertain what the Eagles are going to do.  The good news is that they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL in Gardner Minshew if they decide to bench Jalen Hurts.  He is a gun slinger and will be trying to win this game no matter what, so the Eagles should be able to do their part on offense as well.

This Dallas defense is going to be missing some key players including Micah Parsons and possibly Trevon Diggs.  Those are not only their two best defensive players, but two of the best defensive players in the NFL this season.  The Eagles have all kinds of COVID questions and it's going to hurt their defense more than their offense if players cannot go.

Dallas is scoring 31.0 points per game in its last six games overall.  Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 of its last 14 games overall.  If the Eagles get to 20 in this game, this should get OVER the total, and I think they will.  It will be 28 degrees in Philadelphia Saturday but only 3 MPH winds, so scoring conditions will be just fine.

Dallas beat Philadelphia 41-21 in their first meeting this season for 62 combined points.  They also combined for 54 points in their final meeting last season.  This total is just way too low Saturday knowing that the Cowboys are playing to try to win, while Philadelphia will be just fine on offense with Minshew if it comes down to it.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* LSU/Kansas State Texas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -3.5

The Kansas State Wildcats clearly want to be playing in the Texas Bowl.  They have everyone available for this game including QB Skylar Thompson, who has been out since November 20th in a loss to Baylor.  Thompson means everything to their offense as he is a huge upgrade over backup Will Howard, who completed only 54.5% of his passes in Thompson's absence.

Indeed, Thompson is the leader of this team, and he is also a great player as well.  Thompson is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also scoring four touchdowns on the ground.  He'll be supported by one of the best defenses in the Big 12 that gives up just 21.1 points per game on the season.

LSU got the big 27-24 upset win over Texas A&M in their regular season finale to send Ed Orgeron out a winner.  But now Brian Kelly will be taking his place, and this is a program in transition heading into their bowl game.  Offensive line coach Brad Davis will serve as the interim coach, and he is having to deal with a ton of opt-outs and transfers.

LSU will be without QB Max Johnson among others.  That's a huge blow as Johnson had a 27-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season.  The only scholarship quarterback left on the roster is Garrett Nussmeier, a true freshman who appeared in four games and completed just 50.9% of his passes.  LSU is still trying to get a redshirt for him.  I just think this team is distracted as a whole right now and doesn't want to be here nearly as bad as the Wildcats, and motivation is everything in bowl games.

Kansas State is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite.  Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

20* Browns/Steelers ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +3.5

Ben Roethlisberger has hinted that this will be his final home game.  He would love nothing more than to beat the Cleveland Browns one last time and continue his dominance of them.  Big Ben is 25-2-1 all-time against the Browns straight up.  And we are getting 3.5 points with him and the Steelers at home here where they can still lose by 3 and cover.

This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  Cleveland was a 5.5-point closing favorite in the first meeting, losing 15-10 outright to the Steelers at home.  Now they are a 3.5-point road favorite and after taking a ton of money already this week as Pittsburgh actually opened the favorite.  This despite the Steelers being one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.

Admittedly, the Browns are getting healthier this week and are probably the better team on a neutral.  But this line has shifted too much in their direction.  Baker Mayfield cannot be trusted as he threw four interceptions against the Packers last week and has been terrible all season as he has battled through injury.  I trust Big Ben more, and I trust that it will be a raucous atmosphere for his final home game and his players will have his back as they are fighting for their playoff lives right now.

There's actually a chance the Browns will be eliminated from division contention even before they play this game, which would take the wind out of their sails.  They sit at 7-8 this season and in last place in the division.  I think there's a good chance Cincinnati (8-7) or Baltimore (8-7) pull the upset this week in their respective games.  And Pittsburgh is going to be alive for the division title no matter what happens on Sunday before this game is played.

The Browns haven't won any of their last six games by more than 3 points.  Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a road loss.  The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 division games.  Pittsburgh is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games as an underdog.  The Steelers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Pittsburgh is 19-0 SU in its last 19 Monday Night Football home games with its last loss in 1991!  Bet the Steelers Monday.

Note: The Browns did get eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday which is why this line has moved from Cleveland -3.5 to +2.5.  I would still take the Steelers as a 15* play at -2.5.  Glad we got in early at +3.5 and beat this line move!

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Lions +7

I faded the Seahawks with success last week as the Bears won outright as 7-point underdogs at Seattle.  I'm fading the Seahawks again for a number of the same reasons this week.  They are 5-10 this season and will finish with a losing record for the first time with Russell Wilson.  Seattle won't be going to the playoffs, and they are simply playing out the string now with zero motivation.  They can't be laying 7 points to the Detroit Lions given their lack of motivation.  

The Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the NFL as it is.  They rank 31st in total defense at 385.5 yards per game allowed.  They are 29th in total offense at 305.2 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by over 80 yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL this season.

The Lions continue to fight every week.  They were without Jared Goff last week and covered in a 16-20 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 7-point dogs.  They actually outgained the Falcons by 84 yards and should have won.  There was a chance they would get Goff back this week, but even without him they'll be able to run the football as they have a healthy De'Andre Swift back at RB.

The Lions are much better than their 2-12-1 record and continue to show up every week for Dan Campbell.  They have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have only lost once by more than 4 points during this run.

The Lions have rushed for at least 100 yards in six of their last seven games.  They have one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the NFL.  You can definitely run on the Seahawks as they give up 115 rushing yards per game.  Detroit's defense is good enough to keep them in this game as well.  They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Seattle) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 44-15 (74.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Lions will show up this week, and I don't think the same can be said for the Seahawks.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Jets OVER 45.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs should get Mike Evans back this week.  They have been scoring at will regardless of who has been in the lineup.  The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in five of their last six games overall.  They should get to 30 here to help pave the way for us cashing this OVER.

The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 32nd in scoring defense at 29.9 points per game and 32nd in total defense at 391.3 yards per game.  They are 31st against the run at 141.3 yards per game and 28th against the pass at 250.0 yards per game.  The Bucs are going to be able to name their number on the Jets.

New York has shown some life on offense in recent weeks in scoring 26 points against the Jaguars and 24 against the Dolphins.  They should do their part to get this OVER against a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing several key players this week.  They have three cornerbacks either questionable or doubtful.  They will for sure be without two of their best pass rushers in Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul as well.

Bruce Arians is 8-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Tampa Bay.  Arians is 16-4 OVER in road games following two or more consecutive unders in all games as a head coach.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a double-digit road win.  The OVER is 20-5-1 in Bucs last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  The OVER is 9-3 in Jets last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall to get to 8-7 on the season and knocking on the door of making the playoffs.  They have a lot to play for right now and that motivation is a big reason I am backing them as short road favorites over Washington this week.

Philadelphia is very close to being on a 6-0 run.  Its only loss came when it committed four turnovers against the Giants on the road in a 7-13 loss, losing the turnover battle 4-0.  They avenged that loss last week in a 34-10 home win over the Giants.  They also beat the Broncos by 17, the Saints by 11, the Jets by 15 and Washington by 10 during this run so all five wins have been by double-digits.

Philadelphia was a 10-point home favortie against Washington two weeks ago in that 27-17 win that was even more dominant than the final score showed.  They racked up 519 total yards on Washington and outgained them by 282 yards.  They should be more than 4.5-point favorites in the rematch, a 5.5-point adjustment down.

Washington has zero home-field advantage right now because they are 6-9 on the season and eliminated from playoff contention.  They had the wind knocked out of their sails by the Eagles two weeks ago, and that showed last week as they came back and got blown out 56-14 by the Cowboys.  They gave up 505 more yards to the Cowboys and were outgained by 240 yards.  They were seen fighting on the sidelines.  This team just wants the season to be over right now.

While the Eagles are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, the Football Team has a ton of injuries and COVID issues which is a big reason they have struggled so badly of late.  They will be without RB Antonio Gibson among several others this week against the Eagles.  I just don't see them showing up this week, and even if they do they aren't good enough to hang with Philadelphia.

Washington is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The Football Team is 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss.  The Eagles are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

Plays on favorites (Philadelphia) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a bad defensive team (27 PPG or more), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Eagles Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Bengals AFC No-Brainer on OVER 50.5

Expect a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL that boast two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.  These are two of the healthiest offenses in the NFL right now, which is why they are both humming.

Both teams have all of their key playmakers on offense as Travis Kelce returns for the Chiefs this week.  Kansas City has now scored 39.3 points per game in its last three games as it has entered playoff mode trying to get that all-important top seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.  They won't be holding anything back on offense this week.

Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 passing yards against the Baltimore Ravens last week in leading the Bengals to a 41-21 victory.  He is going to have to be on top of his game to try and match Mahomes and company score for score, and I think he'll be up to the test in a shootout.

The Chiefs have benefited from playing a lot of terrible offenses lately.  The one exception was the Chargers, who had 28 points and 428 total yards against them even though they came with zero points three times inside the Kansas City 5-yard line.  The Bengals have a ton of injuries on defense right now that are going to make them soft as butter and give them almost zero chance to slow down the Chiefs.

The OVER is 5-1 in Chiefs last six January games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five vs. AFC opponents.  The OVER is 7-0 in Bengals last seven January games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Bengals last five home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bengals last five games following a win.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Baylor/Ole Miss Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss ML -120

You just have to love Ole Miss QB Matt Corral.  He has decided to play in this game despite the likelihood that he could be the top QB drafted in the NFL this spring.  He is a gamer, and he played through injury at the end of the season.  Corral should be has healthy as he has been in a long time and ready to put on a showcase for NFL scouts against Baylor in the Sugar Bowl.

"It never crossed my mind to sit out the game," Corral said.  "I'm healthy, I'm going to give these guys everything I got til it's over." I think having that continuity, plus Lane Kiffin returning next season gives the Rebels huge motivation heading into this game.  DE Sam Williams, who set a school record with 12.5 sacks, will also play for Ole Miss, which has no opt-outs for the New Orleans classic.  

Corral leads a Ole Miss offense that is 4th in the country at 506.6 yards per game and scores 35.9 points per game.  Corral is completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,333 yards with a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 597 yards and 11 scores.  He will be the best player on the field by far.  And he'll be supported by an underrated Ole Miss defense that gave up 25.0 points per game this season despite the offense playing at such a fast tempo.

Baylor's season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  They pulled off the shocking 21-16 upset of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship after getting goal-line stand in the final seconds.  They won that game despite gaining just 242 yards on offense and getting outgained by 91 yards.  They benefitted from four Oklahoma State turnovers.  They had barely beaten a bad Texas Tech team 27-24 at home as 14-point favorites the week prior.  Their luck runs out in the Sugar Bowl against this better Ole Miss team.

Ole Miss is 12-2 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 bowl games.  Baylor is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Ole Miss is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Ole Miss is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Utah/Ohio State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Utah +4.5

I don't think Ohio State is going to be that motivated even though the Rose Bowl is a New Year's 6 game.  They had won eight straight games and looked destined to make the four-team playoff.  But a loss to Michigan in the regular season finale cost them a trip to the Big Ten Championship where they would have throttled Iowa just as Michigan did.

Now the Buckeyes have had a ton of opt-outs, which is why this line has dropped.  But it hasn't dropped enough as Utah should be favored given their motivational advantage and all the players the Buckeyes will be missing.

They will be without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, who combined for 135 receptions, nearly 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.  They will also be without DT Haskell Garrett and OT Nicholas Petit-Frere, fellow projected top picks alongside Olave and Wilson.  So they will be without four of their best players.

Utah will be playing in its first Rose Bowl since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, so you know they will be motivated.  The Utes are also one of the hottest teams in the nation having won six straight and nine of their past 10 games.  They throttled Oregon twice by 31 and 28 points, the same Oregon team that went on the road and beat Ohio State earlier this season.

Utah limited four of its last five opponents to 13 points or fewer.  QB Cameron Rising has given the offense a huge boost since taking over for Charlie Brewer.  He has thrown for 2,279 yards with an 18-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has made this offense more dynamic as he has rushed for 407 yards and five scores while averaging 6.5 per carry.

Kyle Whittingham is 11-3 in bowl games and one of the best bowl coaches ever.  He will have the Utes ready for this game, and they are expected to have a big home-field advantage with thousands of fans making the trip to Pasadena.  I don't think the same can be said for the Buckeyes and head coach Ryan Day with all of these opt-outs.  Utah likely wins this game outright.

Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better.  The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs.  The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

25* New Year's 6 Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -1.5

Notre Dame is happy to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl.  The Fighting Irish lost early in the season to Cincinnati in a bad spot where the Bearcats were coming off a bye while Notre Dame was coming off a physical game against Wisconsin in an impressive 41-13 win.  So that head-to-head loss to Cincinnati was likely going to keep them out of the playoff anyway.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, had a legit shot to make the four-team playoff.  But they came up a yard short as they just couldn't score from the 1-yard line late in a 16-21 upset loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game.  This is actually a letdown for them having to play in the Fiesta Bowl when they could be in the four-team playoff instead.

The Fighting Irish have rallied around new head coach Marcus Freeman and offensive coordinator Tommy Reese.  These two will lead this program for years to come after Brian Kelly left for LSU.  You can tell the players love these two guys, and they'll show up for their coaches and play their hearts out in the Fiesta Bowl.

The key to beating Oklahoma State is to force Spencer Sanders to try and throw the football.  He's a terrible passer and their passing game is the biggest weakness in this matchup.  Notre Dame only allows 3.7 yards per carry and 127 rushing yards per game, so it's going to be tough sledding for this Cowboys offense.  Sanders has a 16-to-12 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a turnover machine.  His turnovers will be the difference in this game.

Jack Coan protects the football and has had a big season for the Fighting Irish.  He is completing 67.6% of his passes with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season.  The Fighting Irish will be without leading rusher Kyren Williams, but he only averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season.  I don't think his loss is as big as it is being made out to be.  The fact of the matter is the Fighting Irish have the better talent across the board.

The Fighting Irish are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with six straight wins by double-digits coming in.  Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Georgia/Michigan Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Michigan +8

The Michigan Wolverines have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season while outgaining their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  They remain undervalued as 8-point underdogs to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

Not only did Michigan finally get that monkey off their back with their first win over Ohio State (42-27) under Jim Harbaugh, but they avoided the letdown the next week and crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship.  That let me know this team is serious about winning a national title, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this big of an underdog to Georgia.

The Big Ten was clearly the stronger of these two conferences and that has played out in the bowl games up to this point.  Georgia faced a much easier schedule than Michigan this season.  After opening 12-0 against a suspect schedule, the Bulldogs finally stepped up in class and were blasted 41-24 by Alabama while allowing 536 total yards.  They were barely punished at all by oddsmakers for that loss as they remain overvalued here laying more than a touchdown to a Michigan team that is every bit as good as Alabama.  

Both teams like to run the football and both teams are great at stopping the run.  The weakness of both teams is their QB play, but I think it's actually more of an issue for Georgia than it is for Michigan.  Cade McNamara has completed 65% of his passes with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Stetson Bennett is great at playing from ahead but we saw how bad he was when he had to try to play from behind against Alabama.  Bet Michigan Friday.

15* Alabama/Cincinnati Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5

The SEC is getting too much respect in these bowl games, and that includes Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are getting a ton of respect after beating Georgia 41-24 in the SEC Championship Game.  Alabama was in must-win mode while Georgia didn't need the win to make the four-team playoff, which is why I was on Alabama in that game.

But now the Crimson Tide come back as nearly two-touchdown favorites against a Cincinnati team that has earned the right to be in the four-team playoff.  And I think they'll put up a much better fight than some of these other Power 5 teams have against Alabama in the past.  The Bearcats played their best football of the season down the stretch with the pressure on.

Indeed, they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games overall.  Many thought they would get a test from SMU, but they throttled the Mustangs 48-14 and outgained them by 345 yards.  They went on to cover in a 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite and a 35-20 home win over Houston as a 10.5-point favorite in the AAC Championship.  They also beat Notre Dame on the road 24-13 earlier this season to prove they could play with the big boys.

Cincinnati has a championship-level defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They allow just 16.1 points, 305 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They have a veteran dual-threat QB in Desmond Ridder who doesn't make mistakes.  Ridder has a 30-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 361 yards and six scores.  Alabama's kryptonite has been dual-threat quarterbacks in the past.  Think of Deshaun Watson of Clemson and Johnny Manziel and a few others at Texas A&M.

Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage.  Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Take Cincinnati Friday.

15* ASU/Wisconsin Las Vegas Bowl BAILOUT on Wisconsin -6

Wisconsin is one of the most underrated bowl teams this season.  Their 8-4 record doesn't show how good this team really was this season.  And their upset loss to Minnesota in the finale has them pissed off and undervalued coming into this Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State.

"Obviously, the regular season didn't end the way we would've liked it," Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said. "But I go back to the fact that this group truly does enjoy each other.  They care about each other, and we've got one game that we can play and one more opportunity.  I think for all those reasons, it means a lot to them."

The Badgers led the nation in total defense at 240.8 yards per game and were 6th in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game.  This is the best unit on the field and it's not close.  The Badgers outgained their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play on the season.  That is the sign of an elite team.

Arizona State's suspect offense is going to struggle to do anything against this Wisconsin defense.  QB Jayden Daniels was a big disappointment this season accounting for only 16 total touchdowns.  He had a 10-to-9 TD/INT ratio through the air.  The Sun Devils rely heavily on the run to move the football as they average more rushing yards than passing.  That isn't going to work against a Wisconsin defense that gives up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.2 per carry.

Making matters worse for this ASU offense is that they will be without their best playmaker on offense and each of their top two rushers.  They will be without RB Rachaad White and his 1,006 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, and backup RB DeaMonte Trayanum and his 402 rushing yards and six scores.  Defensively, they will be without their top two cornerbacks in Chase Lucas and Jack Jones as they opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin should have all hands on deck as they have no opt-outs up to this point.

Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.  Arizona State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  I'll gladly side with the Big Ten over the Pac-12 in almost any bowl game blindly, but this one checks all the boxes for sure.  Take Wisconsin in the Las Vegas Bowl Thursday.

20* Purdue/Tennessee Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Tennessee -5.5

Tennessee is excited to be playing in a bowl game in the first season under Josh Heupel.  They will be well-represented in Nashville in the Music City Bowl, so it will be a nice home-field advantage for them.  And I expect a big effort for the Volunteers, who have won four straight bowl games coming in.

All five of Tennessee's losses came against teams that are now ranked or were ranked at the time they played them.  Their only losses came to Pittsburgh (by 7), Florida, Ole Miss (by 5), Alabama and Georgia.  They have been through the gauntlet and their numbers are very impressive.

Tennessee puts up 38.8 points per game, 458.6 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense.  Hendon Hooker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 69% completion percentage and a 26-to-3 TD/INT ratio to go along with 561 rushing yards and five scores.  Their defense is very underrated as they give up just 5.2 yards per play, outgaining teams by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

Purdue had a great season and would give Tennessee a run for its money at full strength.  But the fact of the matter is the Volunteers are nowhere near full strength.  They will be missing their best player on offense and their best player on defense.  WR David Bell is sitting out after finishing with 93 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns this season.  DE George Karlafitis is also opting out as he will likely be a TOp 5 pick in the NFL Draft.

If being without Bell and Karlafitis wasn't enough, the Boilermakers will also be without offensive lineman Greg Long, CB Dedrick Mackey and WR Milton Wright.  The Wright loss is even bigger due to the loss of Bell.  Wright was their second-leading receiver with 57 receptions for 732 yards and seven touchdowns.  So that's 150 receptions, 2,018 yards and 13 touchdowns combined between them gone.  They already have a weak offense, and they will have a hard time keeping up with Tennessee without these guys.  Bet Tennessee in the Music City Bowl Thursday.

15* Iowa State/Clemson Cheez-It Bowl Line Mistake on Clemson -2

Iowa State is going to be without one of the best players in the country in RB Breece Hall.  He had nearly 1,800 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns while leading the nation in scoring.  Clemson's stout defensive line won't have to respect the play-action, which is going to be a problem for QB Brock Purdy and this suspect Iowa State offensive line.  Clemson had 24 sacks in their last five games, while Iowa State went 0-5 ATS in games they allowed multiple sacks this season.

But the hits have kept coming for the Cyclones.  They will be without Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Isheem Young, who is fourth in tackles and led the team in interceptions and was second in forced fumbles.  They will be without CB Kym-Mani King and LB Aric Horne.  And I added this pick on game day because I read that WR Xavier Hutchinson and LB Mike Rose will likely also be out.  So it sounds like they'll be without their top RB, top WR, best defensive player in Rose, his backup, their starting safety, starting corner and starting center.

Clemson played up to its potential down the stretch in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with those 24 sacks.  Their defense is one of the best in the country and the best unit on the field, which is why they should win this game.  Their offense scored at least 30 points in all five wins down the stretch.  They simply have the better athletes on the field, and I don't give the Cyclones much of a chance with all they'll be missing.  

Iowa State struggled when they stepped up in class this season losing to Iowa, Baylor and Oklahoma as well as upset losses to West Virginia and Texas Tech.  They underachieved based on expectations, and they simply weren't that good.  The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 bowl games.  Clemson is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 December games.  The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games as underdogs.  Take Clemson Wednesday.

20* Maryland/VA Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -3.5

The Maryland Terrapins were sitting at 5-6 and facing 5-6 Rutgers with the winning getting a chance to go to a bowl game.  The Terrapins won that game 40-16 in dominant fashion while outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 238 yards behind 575 total yards of offense against a good Rutgers defense.

It's safe to say that Maryland wants to be playing in this bowl game.  The Terrapins haven't been to a bowl game since 2016 and haven't won one since 2010.  They haven't had any key opt-outs, and this young team will relish this opportunity, as will head coach Mike Locksley.

The same cannot be said for Virginia Tech.  This is a program in flux now after head coach Justin Fuente was fired on November 16th.  Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry has been hired to replace Fuente, leaving J.C. Price as the interim coach to finish out this season.

The Hokies have been hit hard by opt-outs as they will be missing seven starters.  They will be without QB Braxton Burmeister, wide receivers Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson, cornerback Jermaine Waller, defensive end Amare Barno, NT Jordan Williams and OG Lecitus Smith.  

Turner and Robinson were Virginia Tech's top two receivers, combining for 84 receptions, 1,234 yards and eight touchdowns.  Robinson was also the punt returner.  Burmeister entered the transfer portal as well.  He threw for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while also rushing for 521 yards and two scores.

Maryland played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country this season and actually outgained its opponents by 24 yards per game.  Virginia Tech played the 65th-ranked schedule and was actually outgained by 14 yards per game.  So the Terrapins were the better of these two teams even before all the opt-outs and distractions for the Hokies.  They should be much more than a 3.5-point favorite given the circumstances.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Maryland) - off an upset win as a road underdog against n opponent that is off a road win are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS following a win over the last two seasons.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Air Force First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +1

Air Force went 9-3 this year and was very close to a perfect 12-0 season.  All three losses were one-score games and by a combined 17 points.  The Falcons should not be underdogs to this 6-6 Louisville team that didn't beat a single team with a winning record this season.

Air Force leads the country with 341.4 rushing yards per game.  They should have success on the ground against a Louisville defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  They haven't faced a rushing attack as potent as Air Force.  The only one they did face that was close was Kentucky, and they allowed 362 rushing yards in a 52-21 loss in the regular season finale against the Wildcats.

While this Air Force rushing attack is potent, the defense has almost been more impressive.  The Falcons rank 5th in the country in allowing just 288.8 total yards per game.  They are 7th against the run at 95.6 yards per game and 20th against the pass at 193.3 yards per game.  This is a below-average Louisville defense that ranks 84th at 402.5 yards per game allowed this season.

Air Force went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in road games this season.  Louisville is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games off a home loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game this season.  Air Force is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Falcons are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Cardinals are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games.  Bet Air Force in the First Responder Bowl Tuesday.

20* Dolphins/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The New Orleans Saints have been hit hard by COVID this week.  They will be without both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at quarterback after they were already without Jameis Winston.  Now they will be starting 4th-stringer Ian Book, and they just signed Blake Bortles on Friday as insurance.

Sean Payton was allowed to return to the team on Friday.  But three other coaches who tested positive aren't expected to coach Monday.  On Saturday, DE Carl Granderson became the 16th player to test positive for COVID this week and the 19th person on the roster or the coaching staff to test positive since Tuesday.  

The Saints have two available DE's on the active roster for Monday's game; Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and Davenport is questionable with shoulder and knee injuries.  S Malcolm Jenkins, LB Demario Davis, T Ryan Ramczyk, LB Kaden Elliss, G James Carpenter, T Jordan Mills, S Jeff Heath, DT Christian Ringo, TE's Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson, special teams ace J.R> Gray and RB Dwayne Washington are the others outside the quarterbacks.

Don't look now but the Miami Dolphins are back to .500 and in position to make the playoffs after their 1-7 start.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their defense is playing lights out during this stretch.  They are giving up just 11.5 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  It won't get any easier for a Saints offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game in their last four games with a 4th-stringer at quarterback this week.

While the Saints are a mash unit right now, the Dolphins are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  And their offense gets a boost this week with the return of both WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Phillip Lindsay from the COVID list.  Waddle is crucial as he has quickly become Tua's favorite target.  He has 86 receptions for 849 yards and four touchdowns this season.  Tua is quietly playing very well with a 70% completion percentage this season.

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after covering the spread in three of its last four games.  New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Saints are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  And this is definitely a potential letdown spot for the Saints off their big upset win over the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  That win was aided by a ton of injuries and attrition throughout the game to Tampa's offense.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* Washington/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +10

I love the spot for the Washington Football Team tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 20-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago.  So this will be their 2nd meeting in 3 weeks.  And Washington lost QB Taylor Heineke in that game to injury.  He missed last week, but he will be back this week to give the offense a boost against the Cowboys.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But they easily could have lost all three of those games.  They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers in those three games.  They beat the Saints 27-17 despite getting outgained by 28 yards.  Washington was driving to tie the game late in their 27-20 loss.  And the Cowboys only outgained the Giants by 26 yards in their 21-6 win.  They got to face backup quarterbacks in all three victories.

This Dallas offense just can't be trusted to lay this big of a number.  And their defense isn't as good as the points per game allowed would indicate.  The Cowboys rank 21st in total defense at 22nd against the pass this season.  They have simply benefited from being ball hawks, ranking 1st with 31 takeaways.  That is pretty unsustainable.

Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Dallas.  The underdog is 29-14 ATS in the last 43 meetings.  I know the Football Team will show up today to try and beat their hated rivals in the Cowboys.  It should be good enough to stay within this inflated double-digit spread tonight.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +6.5

The Seattle Seahawks just lost 20-10 on Tuesday to the Los Angeles Rams to fall to 5-9 on the season and assure a losing record.  That defeat eliminated them from playoff contention.  I think we see them very flat Sunday against the Chicago Bears because of it as they finally won't finish .500 or better with Russell Wilson.

The fact of the matter is the Seahawks aren't the better of these two teams anyway.  Chicago is much better than its 4-10 record would indicate.  And it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bears after failing to cover the spread in five straight.  But they deserved to cover in almost all of those.

Indeed, the Bears have amazingly outgained five of their last six opponents.  They outgained the Steelers by 134 yards in their 27-29 road loss.  They outgained the Ravens by 54 yards in their 13-16 home loss.  They outgained the Lions by 139 yards in their 16-14 road win.  They outgained the Cardinals by 72 yards in their 22-33 home loss.  They did get outgained by 92 yards by the Pakcers on the road but held a 6-point halftime lead in that game.  And last week they outgained the Vikings by 177 yards in their 9-17 home loss.

At some point, the Bears are going to win the stats and the scoreboard.  I think this is the week against the Seahawks.  Chicago has the 9th-ranked defense in the NFL giving up just 326.2 yards per game.  Seattle ranks 31st in total defense, allowing 390.4 yards per game.  The Seahawks are also 30th in total offense at 303.4 yards per game, getting outgained by nearly 90 yards per game on the season.  That is the sign of a terrible team.

Chicago is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Off the loss to the Rams on Tuesday, this is a short week for the Seahawks getting only four days to get ready for the Bears.  Nick Foles is not really a downgrade from Justin Fields and could provide this Chicago offense with a spark with his ability to stretch the field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  But that won't stop them from showing up against the defending Super Bowl champion and division rival Tampa Bay Bucs today.  They would love nothing more than to beat the Bucs here Sunday.

The Panthers should be getting Sam Darnold back today which will give the offense an added dimension.  They also will have a kicker, which they didn't have against Buffalo after he got hurt in pregame, which ultimately cost them the cover.  And their best receiver in DJ Moore has been upgraded to probable today.

This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 294.4 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in passing defense, allowing just 178.8 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for them to be able to slow down Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay passing attack.

This Bucs' offensive attack got a lot less potent in their 9-0 loss to the Saints last week.  Injuries hit them hard in that game and they aren't any better this week.  The Bucs will now be without their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.  They will also be without RB Leonard Fournette.  That's over 3,200 yards of offense and 27 combined touchdowns between those three.  Not to mention, their defense will be without S Antoine Winfield Jr, LB Lavonte David and DE Jason Pierre-Paul.  They also have a couple CB's questionable in the secondary.

Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after four or more consecutive overs.  The Panthers are 60-37 ATS in their last 97 games following a loss by 10 or more points.  The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* Browns/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -7

The Green Bay Packers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL and it's a big reason they have the best record in the NFC at 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS this season.  And they have been unstoppable at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  You know it's going to be a great atmosphere for this home game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day as well.

The Browns are a mess right now.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two wins came against the Lions and the Ravens and their backups QB by a combined 5 points.  They lost by 38 at New England, by 6 at Baltimore and at home to the lowly Raiders by 2.  They are still missing a ton of key players, and I think they are getting too much respect with Baker Mayfield coming back because he has been terrible this season.

Green Bay is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse this season.  This is a short week for the Browns after playing on Monday, so they have just four days to get ready for the Packers.  They haven't been practicing much as a team due to all of these COVID problems, so chemistry will continue to be a problem for them.  The Packers have been in sync since Week 1.  Take the Packers Saturday.

20* Ball State/Georgia State Camellia Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -5.5

Georgia State played as well as anyone in the Sun Belt down the stretch with the exception of perhaps conference champion Louisiana.  The Panthers rebounded from a 1-4 start by going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games overall.  They are clearly excited to be playing in this bowl game because they earned it.

They upset Coastal Carolina as 12.5-point road underdogs.  Their only loss during this stretch came to Sun Belt champion Louisiana, 17-21 as 13.5-point road underdogs.  But they easily could have won that game and actually led with under three minutes to play.  Those efforts against Coastal and Louisiana show how good this team really is.

Ball State won the MAC last year and brought almost everyone back.  The Cardinals were huge disappointments this season finishing just 6-6.  Their last two wins came against Akron and Buffalo in non-impressive fashion against two of the worst teams in the MAC.  They managed just 230 total yards against Buffalo and were outgained by 106 yards despite winning.  They were outgained by 33 yards by Akron and needed to force a fumble at the goal line to escape with a 31-25 win as 20-point favorites.

This is a great matchup for Georgia State's offense.  The Panthers rank 8th in the country in rushing at 225 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  They will be up against a Ball State defense that allows 170 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry.  The Cardinals average just 335.9 yards per game on offense and give up 415.7 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by nearly 80 yards per game.  This simply isn't a very good Ball State team with those numbers.

Georgia State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  It is winning by 15.3 points per game in this spot.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against poor pass defenses that allow 62% completions or higher.  Georgia State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Cardinals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

20* 49ers/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers are a freight train right now.  They are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL coming into the season but were hurt by injuries in the first half.  Now that they've been a lot healthier they are playing up to their potential.

The 49ers made easy work of the Falcons in a 31-13 home victory last week.  So they should still have plenty left in the tank for this short week game against Tennessee.  They would be bigger favorites in this game if not for the short week and the West Coast team traveling East.  But the 49ers have dominated when flying out East in recent seasons.

The Titans were grossly overvalued due to a great start this season behind Derrick Henry.  But since Henry went down, the Titans have been awful.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are broken on offense, scoring 23 or fewer points in five straight games and an average of just 16.4 points per game in their last five.

The Titans have passed for less than 200 yards in five of their last six games because they have also been without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones at times.  Brown should be back this week, but Jones suffered a hamstring injury last week and is questionable.  They still aren't the same team without Henry, Brown and Jones all healthy and they are only likely to have one of the three.

Tennessee has been relying heavily on running the football offensively even without Henry.  But that's not going to work against the 49ers.  They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last six games overall.  And the Titans have struggled despite playing five straight bad offensive teams in the Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots.  The Titans will be without two starters on the offensive line as well in Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a 49ers offense that is rolling since getting George Kittle and Deebo Samuel healthy.  The 49ers have scored 23 or more points in six straight games and an average of 29.2 points per game.  Samuel has seven rushing touchdowns and 1,088 receiving yards on the season.  Kittle has 28 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns over the last three weeks.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE WEEK Miami Ohio/North Texas on OVER 54.5

Two offenses that are better than they get credit for square off in the Frisco Football Classic in this matchup between the Miami Ohio Redhawks and North Texas Mean Green Thursday.  Look for a shootout that easily tops this 54.5-point total today.

North Texas won five straight games to close the season behind an offense that put up 36.4 points per game during the winning streak.  They rushed for over 300 yards three times and are an elite rushing offense.  They should be able to run the ball at will on a Miami Ohio defense that gave up 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.

Miami Ohio has scored 33 or more points in five of its last six games overall.  They passes for 351 or more yards in three of their last four games.  Brett Gabbert is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 24-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  They should be able to move the ball through the air on a North Texas defense that allows 7.7 yards per attempt while the Redhawks average 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

North Texas has played in shootouts in each of its last four bowl games because it always has a good offense and terrible defense.  They combined for 84 points with Appalachian State last year, 65 points with Utah State in 2018, 80 points with Troy in 2017 and 69 points with Army in 2016.  All four combined totals would easily top this 54.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Missouri/Army Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Army -3.5

The Army Black Knights completed an 8-4 season under head coach Jeff Monken and continue to be a powerhouse.  And I think we are getting them cheap in the Armed Forces Bowl against Missouri due to getting upset by Navy in their regular season finale.  But that was Navy's National Championship because they weren't going bowling.  

Army knew they had this bowl game on deck, and they'll be looking to cap off the season on a high note.  The loss to Navy only makes them even more motivated, and they'll have no problem getting up to face a team from the SEC in Missouri here to showcase how good they really are.

This will be Army's third trip to the Armed Forces Bowl in Monken's run of five bowl games in the past six seasons.  They upset San Diego State 42-35 in 2017 and crushed Houston 70-14 in 2018.  The Black Knights are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Their triple-option is tough for opponents to prepare for.

That will definitely be the case for Missouri as this is the perfect matchup for Army.  The Black Knights ranked 2nd in the country in averaging 287 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  Missouri ranks 124th in the country against the run, allowing 229 rushing yards per game and a whopping 5.5 yards per carry.  Army is going to be able to run the ball at will on this putrid Missouri defense.

The Tigers aren't a great passing team, averaging 6.6 yards per pass, and defending the pass is Army's weakness.  The matchup is a good one for this Army defense, too.  They give up just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.  That will make life difficult on a Missouri offense that relies heavily on the run at 180 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.

Missouri is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Missouri is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 December games.  The Black Knights are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 December games.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Monken is 9-1 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 points or less as the coach of the Black Knights.  Take Army Wednesday.

Update: This line has moved in Army's favor since I published it early in the week due to the SEC's leading rusher being out for Missouri.  Tyler Badie's absence is a huge blow to the Missouri offense as he had 1,942 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns, including 1,612 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.  I would still recommend a play at -6.5, but this play will be graded at -3.5.

20* SDSU/UTSA Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on UTSA +3

The UTSA Roadrunners went 12-1 this season with their only loss coming in a meaningless game against North Texas in the regular season finale.  They were coming off their huge win against UAB to clinch their spot in the C-USA title game, and they had that game on deck against Western Kentucky.  North Texas needed the win to make a bowl game so it was just the perfect storm for the Roadrunners to lose that game.

They rebounded with a dominant 49-41 win over Western Kentucky in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led 42-13 before the Hilltoppers made a late run with their dynamic passing game, which they always seem to do.  And beating Western Kentucky twice this season looks even better now with how well Conference USA looks in bowl games thus far.

Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).

San Diego State went 11-2 this season but lost badly 46-13 to Utah State in the Mountain West Championship Game.  I don't see them being all that motivated to play UTSA after losing that game.  The Aztecs have six wins by one score this season and aren't as good as their record.

I like the matchup for UTSA because their weakness on defense is against the pass, and San Diego State only averages 25 pass attempts and 158 passing yards per game.  The Aztecs rely on the run to move the football, and UTSA ranks 11th in the country in yards per carry (3.2) allowed while giving up just 111 rushing yards per game.

UTSA will be the more motivated team to get to 13 wins and capture their first bowl win in program history.  The Roadrunners will also have the home-field advantage with thsi game being played in Frisco, Texas.  The fans sold out their home game against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship Game and it was a huge advantage.  They will travel the four hours to support their team here in Frisco, too.

UTSA is 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  UTSA is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog.  The Aztecs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Roll with UTSA Tuesday.

15* Washington/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week and expected to get Jalen Hurts back at quarterback.  They should be as healthy as they have been all season and get their dynamic RB duo of Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard back.

The Eagles are really playing well right now in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with all three victories coming by double-digits.  The lone loss was fluky as they were -4 in turnovers against the Giants and only lost by 6 on the road.  They clearly should have won that game.

Now they take on a banged-up Washington team that has as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now.  QB Taylor Heineke and WR Terry McLaurin both left the Dallas game last week with injuries.  Both are questionable to return this week.

They have 10 players in COVID protocol including DL Matt Ionnidis, backup QB Kyle Allen, CB Kendall Fuller, DL Jonathan Allen and a couple linebackers.  They are already without Chase Young and cannot afford to lose all these guys up front.  They will get some players back that they wouldn't have had if this game was played on Sunday, but the Eagles were double-digit favorites then.  Now we are getting the Eagles as less than a TD favorite here.

This is a tired Washington team that has played five straight games that were decided by 10 points or fewer, including four one-score games in their last four.  But they were getting blown out by Dallas last week before a late rally.  I don't see them rallying against the Eagles this week.

The Eagles are ready to make a playoff push as they get three winnable home games plus Washington twice down the stretch.  They have rushed for at least 176 yards in six straight games now and should be able to run all over this depleted Washington front seven.  The Eagles are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Eagles Tuesday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks +7

This is already a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Rams.  They are coming off an upset road win over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.  Now they stay within the division to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that is starting to play up to their potential as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Now things have really gotten worse for the Rams.  They now have placed 25 players on the COVID list, including CB Jalen Ramsey, WR Odell Beckham Jr., LB Von Miller and four other starters.  They will get some guys back that they wouldn't have had if they played Sunday, but they still shouldn't be 7-point favorites in this game.

The Seahawks want revenge from a 26-17 home loss to the Rams in their first meeting this season.  Russell Wilson was knocked out of that game early and replaced by Geno Smith.  I like their chances for getting revenge and covering at the very least considering they are the much healthier team and playing up to their potential the last two weeks.

Indeed, the Seahawks are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games.  They upset the 49ers 30-23 as 2.5-point home underdogs.  They followed it up with a dominant 33-13 win at Houston as 9.5-point favorites behind 453 yards of offense.  Russell Wilson is starting to play like his old self as he has gotten healthier, and the Seahawks have rushed for 146 and 193 yards in their last two games, respectively.

Pete Carroll is 49-28 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Seahawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Bet the Seahawks Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -5.5

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best 6-7 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have held at least a 6-point lead in all 13 games this season and are clearly better than their record.  But they are still alive for the playoffs, and this is a must-win game for them Monday night in Chicago.

Minnesota got Dalvin Cook back from injury last week and he ran wild on the Steelers in a 36-28 victory last Thursday.  The Vikings had 458 total yards and a 29-0 lead on the Steelers, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Now this is like a mini-bye week for the Vikings, so they should be fresh and ready to go with three extra days' rest.  They are also one of the healthier teams in the NFL.

The same cannot be said for the Bears, who have 12 players on the COVID list and three coordinators now.  Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, defensive coordinator Sean Desai and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor were all working remotely Thursday.  They are likely to be without WR Allen Robinson and DEB Eddie Jackson among many other key players.

This is a bad spot for the Bears as it is even without the COVID news.  At 4-9 now, they have no chance of making the playoffs.  They just blew a 27-21 halftime lead against the Packers and were outscored 24-3 after intermission in a 45-30 loss.  They were fortunate to even be in that game thanks to several big special teams plays.  They won't be so fortunate against this motivated Vikings team to keep this one close for long.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Take the Vikings Monday.

20* Tulsa/Old Dominion ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Old Dominion +9

Old Dominion didn't even play last season due to COVID.  Monarchs head coach Ricky Rahne had a tall task ahead of him.  That showed early in the season as the Monarchs opened 1-6.  But they have since going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS to get to 6-6 and earn a bowl bid.

It's safe to say Old Dominion will be highly motivated for a bowl victory after fighting so hard at the end of the season just to get here.  And it will be just the second bowl game in program history, adding to the motivation.

The turnaround for the Monarchs came when freshman QB Hayden Wolff replaced UCF transfer Darriel Mack Jr. midseason.  He completed 62.2% of his passes and was way more elusive than Mack Jr, leading the Monarchs to a 5-1 record in his six starts down the stretch.

Tulsa also had a nice finish just to make this bowl game, but I don't think the Golden Hurricane can be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They are 6-6 as well but five of those six wins came by one score.  Their only blowout victory came against lowly Temple, which finished 1-7 in AAC play.

Tulsa QB Davis Brin had a 16-to-16 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Golden Hurricane rely heavily on the run to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for the Monarchs.  They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, ranking in the Top 25 in the country against the run.

Conference USA has looked impressive in bowl games thus far.  Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).  Tulsa is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +9

The San Francisco 49ers were fortunate to win last week at Cincinnati. The Bengals gave that game away by muffing two punts in their own territory. The 49ers recovered all four fumbles in the game. And they still needed overtime to beat the Bengals, 26-23.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the 49ers even though I like this team. They are now laying way too many points at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who are still in playoff contention at 6-7 this season. And while the 49ers have struggled at home in recent years, the Falcons have been a great bet on the road.

Indeed, the Falcons are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS away from home this season. They have upset wins over the Giants, Dolphins, Saints and Panthers. And they have a great path to the playoffs if they can pull another upset here because they have Detroit on deck next week.

The 49ers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. San Francisco is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games as a home favorite. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers ML +103

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-6-1 and are playing for their playoff lives this week.  Look for a big effort from them.  I always like backing Mike Tomlin off a loss and as an underdog.  And I think the wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.

The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and are expected to have T.J. Watt this week, one of the best defensive players in the NFL.  The same cannot be said for the Titans, who have 20 players out and another eight questionable.

Tennessee's offense has hit the skids since losing both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown to injury, their two best players.  In their last five games, the Titans managed just 194 yards against the Rams, 264 yards against the Saints, 13 points in an upset loss to the Texans as 10.5-point favorites, 13 points against New England and just 263 yards against Jacksonville.

The Steelers have managed 300 or more yards in five straight games offensively.  They have by far the better offense right now, and I rank these teams pretty even defensively.  Plus you have to give the Steelers a few points for home-field advantage and simply needing the game more.  It all adds up to the wrong team being favored.

Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 35 points or more.  Tennessee is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Titans are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Lions +13

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have not quit and continue to get the money for backers.  And their 38-10 loss to Denver was very misleading last week.  They were only outgained by 42 yards despite missing a ton of players due to COVID, but they had two turnovers in the red zone.

Now the Lions will get back several players they were missing last week.  And they will relish this opportunity to try and beat the team with the best record in the NFC in the Arizona Cardinals.  The Lions have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to improve to 8-5 ATS this season.  So despite their 1-11-1 SU record, they continue fighting for bettors' money.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS on the road this season with all seven wins by double-digits.  Odds are they can't keep this streak going now that the books have over-adjusted for it this week.  The Cardinals will be without their best receiver in De'Andre Hopkins, who suffered a possible season-ending injury last week.

They also have their top two running backs in James Conner and Chase Edmonds questionable.  Not to mention, this is a terrible spot for the Cardinals.  They are on a short week after losing 30-23 at home tot he Rams on Monday Night Football.  And they have a big game on deck against the Colts on Saturday.  They will be just looking to get in and get out with a win against the Lions with zero incentive to run up the score.

Detroit is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss by 28 points or more.  Arizona is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7.5 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -130

The Indianapolis Colts might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They are just 7-6 but much better than that record.  They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 7 points per game on the season with a balanced offense and a very good defense that allows just 21.8 points per game.

The Colts opened 0-3 amid injuries and poor play.  They have since gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and are very close to being on a 10-game winning streak.  They blew a 19-point lead and lost in OT to the Ravens, lost in OT at home to the Titans after another late blown lead, and blew a 14-point lead to the Bucs in a last-second loss.  The fact that they competed with those three teams and took them all to the wire tells all you need to know about the Colts' potential.

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.  They aren't nearly as good as their 9-4 record would indicate.  And the bye actually came at a bad time for them because they had all the momentum, stopping the Bills twice in the Red Zone to preserve a 14-10 victory last time out.  They have feasted on the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  They come back down to reality this week against the Colts, who beat the Bills 41-15 on the road a couple weeks ago.

Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a division game.  Indianapolis is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +9.5

The Liberty Flames had high expectations this season after going 10-1 last year and beating Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl to finish No. 17 in the polls.  The Flames opened 7-2 this season before finishing with three straight losses to Ole Miss, Louisiana and Army all by double-digits and by a combined 56 points.

Now I question the Flames' motivation heading into the LendingTree Bowl sitting at 7-5.  They go from playing unbeaten Coastal Carolina in their bowl game last year to playing a 7-5 Eastern Michigan team from the MAC.  I don't think they will be all that motivated, and they are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us.

I know Eastern Michigan is going to be motivated.  In fact, the Eagles haven't won a bowl game since 1987.  They didn't go to another bowl until 2016.  They have since lost three straight bowl games all by 4 points or fewer, covering the spread in all three bowl games.  It's safe to say they are highly motivated to cash in that first bowl victory.

Eastern Michigan has been the king of one-score games under head coach Chris Creighton, which is why there's a ton of value getting them as +9.5 dogs.  Dating back to the middle of 2019, Eastern Michigan has 14 losses.  A whopping 10 of those have come by 8 points or fewer.  So they have lost just four of their last 26 games by more than 8 points to put it better.

This Eastern Michigan offense is never going to be out of the game.  They score 31.0 points per game on the season.  QB Ben Bryant is completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,921 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  They will be opposed by a similar Liberty offense that averages 31.8 points per game on the season.

Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  The Eagles are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Eagles are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss.  Eastern Michigan is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog.  Take Eastern Michigan in the LendingTree Bowl.

20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +7

I think UAB wants to be here more than BYU.  And I like the matchup for the Blazers.  BYU just completed a 10-2 season and knocked off several Pac-12 opponents along the way.  They feel like they deserve a better bowl game than the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.

I've actually been to a bowl game in Shreveport when Iowa State played last.  It's kind of a dump in and around the stadium.  No offense to anyone that lives there reading this writeup, but it's not the greatest destination.  BYU thought they had an outside shot of playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl.

It is a pretty short drive for UAB fans from Birmingham to Shreveport just over 6 hours.  I think it will be like a home game for the Blazers.  "I'm really proud of our selection to the bowl game, and man, what a great opponent we've got in BYU," Clark said on Monday. "I know our players are all going to be excited for the challenge ahead."

And the weather is going to help UAB keep this game close.  There's a 90% chance of precipitation Saturday with 15 MPH winds, too.  This game will mostly be played on the ground.  UAB prefers to run the football, averaging 177 rushing yards per game.  They should be able to run the ball on a BYU defense that gives up 151 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

BYU also likes to run the ball at 188 rushing yards per game.  But the strength of UAB's team is their front 7 defensively.  They give up just 105 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry this season.  In their last three games against pretty good rushing teams they held Marshall to 37 yards on 21 carries, UTSA to 52 yards on 34 carries and UTEP to 99 yards on 30 carries.

UAB is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more yards per game this season.  BYU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  BYU fans have come out and said they are less than thrilled to be playing UAB.  Meanwhile, it has been a different story for UAB fans and head coach Bill Clark and his players.  Roll with UAB in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* Toledo/Middle Tennessee Bowl Season Opener on OVER 49

Toledo is going to take care of this total mostly on their own and I'd lean to laying the points with them too.  But I feel better about the OVER 49.  The Rockets have the superior offense in this game that averages 34.2 points per game on the season and led the MAC in scoring.

Toledo has really been humming on offense of late.  The Rockets have scored 34 or more points in five consecutive games while averaging 43.2 points per game during this stretch.  I think they get to 34 or more in this game, which just means we need a couple touchdowns from Middle Tennessee to get the OVER.

Middle Tennessee has been much better on offense than they get credit for, especially since changing quarterbacks.  The Blue Raiders are putting up 29.8 points per game on the season.  They have scored 21 or more points in five of their last six games overall and probably only need to get to 21 at most to cash this OVER.

The Blue Raiders went 3-2 with starter Nicholas Vattiato at quarterback to close the season.  He is comlpeting 67.4% of his passes and only had one really bad game with five interceptions in a 48-21 loss to Western Kentucky, one of the best teams in C-USA.

Forecasts are calling for 81 degrees and mostly sunny during this game with only a 10% chance of precipitation and 15 MPH winds.  While the winds will be a little brisk, they won't be bad enough to affect this game much.  I think this total has dropped way too much from the opener of 54.5 and there's a ton of value on the OVER.

The OVER is 4-0 in Middle Tennessee's last four bowl games with combined scores of 58 or more points in all four.  Toledo is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games after scoring 37 points or more last game.  The Blue Raiders are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 road games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the OVER today.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Chargers OVER 51.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should get back Keenan Allen this week from COVID protocol.  Their already potent offense should be even stronger as it is nearly at full strength.  They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be without their best player in Chris Jones due to COVID.

"The only guy you can really compare him to is probably Aaron Donald," Tyrann Mathieu said.  "You talk about inside dominance.  It's going to be a big challenge for us to replace him."

Of course, the way the Chiefs are going offensively right now they will be able to match the Chargers score for score.  They just hung 48 points on the Raiders last week after scoring 41 on them in their first meeting a couple weeks ago.  This Kansas City offense is pretty much at full strength now and ready for a big finish.

These are two of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  The Chargers rank 29th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, while the Chiefs are 26th at 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs are also 31st allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense.  Only the Jets have been worse than them in this category.

This has been an OVER series.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 52 or more combined points.  That includes the 30-24 upset win by the Chargers as 7-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season.  The Chiefs should have won that game as they were -4 in turnovers, had 33 first downs and 437 total yards.  They should have scored more than 24 points.  Both offenses should top 24 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Rams/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams.  They lost three straight and failed to cover five in a row prior to their 37-7 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  They got right and gained some confidence, and now they want revenge from a misleading 20-37 home loss to the Cardinals in their first meeting this season.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a misleading 33-22 win against the Bears last week.  They only managed 257 total yards against the Bears and were outgained by 72 yards.  They simply benefited from being +4 in turnovers.  They improved to 7-0 on the road this season with seven wins by double-digits, which is crazy.

The Cardinals have been much more vulnerable at home this season.  They are 3-2 at home but two of those wins were misleading ones against the Vikings (by 1) and 49ers (by 7).  The Vikings gave that game away by missing kicks, including a short game-winner.  The 49ers lost 17-10 with Trey Lance at QB and squandered a ton of opportunities in Arizona territory.  The other win was against the Texans.  They also lost to the depleted Packers at home, and were crushed by the Panthers 34-10 at home.

That was a rare loss by the Rams against the Cardinals earlier this season.  They had dominated this series, and I look for Sean McVay to get back to his dominance of Kliff Kingsbury as he is the better coach and will make the proper adjustments.  The Rams are still 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals with all eight wins by 7 points or more and seven by double-digits.

Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Arizona.  The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games in the second half of the season.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Rams) - after failing to cover three of their last four games ATS against an opponent that covered three of their last four games ATS are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rams Monday.

20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53

It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday.  The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds.  It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL.   The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season.

And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds.  And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short.

The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense.  They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season.  Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season.

The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL.  His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week.  The Bills will get their offense going this week.  They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season.

They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary.  Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already.  The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone.  The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs.  I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both.

Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game.  The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs.  The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Las Vegas Raiders after a 15-17 home loss to the Washington Football Team last week.  This came after a 36-33 upset win at the Dallas Cowboys.  The Raiders can stay within single-digits of the Chiefs and possibly pull off the upset.

This is also a great 'sell high' spot on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight victories and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They never should have covered in their 22-9 win over the Broncos last week.  They were outgained by 137 yards by the the Broncos in that contest and gave up 404 total yards and only 9 points, which doesn't add up.

This Kansas City offense just isn't the same as it used to be.  They were held to 267 yards by the Broncos, 370 by the Cowboys, 237 by the Packers, 368 by the Giants and 334 by the Titans in five of their last six games.  Of course, the one exception was when they went off against the Raiders, but I'm expecting the Raiders to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  They will be out for revenge as well.

Las Vegas looks like the better team when you dive into the important stats.  The Raiders rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, while the Chiefs rank 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders rank 9th in the NFL allowing 5.3 yards per play on defense, while the Chiefs rank 30th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  Las Vegas outgains its opponents by 0.7 yards per play, while Kansas City is getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Chiefs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Kansas City is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Chiefs go from being 2.5-point road favorites at Las Vegas to 10.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  This is too big of an adjustment.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns -2

This is the perfect spot for the Cleveland Browns.  I don't remember ever seeing a team play the same team twice surrounding their bye week.  But that's the situation for the Browns.  They lost to the Ravens 16-10 on the road in Week 12 before getting their bye last week.  And now they get to host the Ravens coming out of their bye.  So they have basically been preparing for the Ravens for three straight weeks.  That's a huge advantage for them.

The Ravens have been in five straight dog fights the last five weeks with four games decided by one score.  That includes their 20-19 loss to the Steelers last week in which they went for a 2-point conversion after scoring in the final seconds but came up just short.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat.

And while the Browns are healthier coming out of their bye, the injury situation is a terrible one for the Ravens.  The reason they went for 2 was because they were down to three cornerbacks and didn't like their chances in overtime.  Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers.  

They also have key injuries along their front seven on defense and along their offensive line.  Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine in recent weeks trying to do too much.  He has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 24 games in their last six games.  This really looks like a Ravens team that is close to falling apart, and that could very well happen this week against the Browns.

The Ravens are the most overrated team in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-4 record.  They finally lost a close game last week, and their stats are awful.  They average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 6.0 yards per play, getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  The rank 31st on defense in yards per play allowed.

The Browns gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  So they have been a full one yard per play better than Baltimore this season.  They rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense.

We're getting the better, healthier team in the better situation off the bye as a short home favorite here of less than a field goal.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy +7.5

Both teams will be motivated.  But I just think Navy will be the slightly more motivated team for a couple of different reasons.  First, this is their 'National Championship' game since they won't be going to a bowl game.  Secondly, the Midshipmen want revenge from a 15-0 loss to Army last season.

Navy played a much more difficult schedule than Army this season, which will work in its favor.  The Midshipmen played the 54th-toughest schedule.  Army played the 87th-toughest schedule and took advantage with an 8-3 campaign.

Navy was a much improved team in the second half of the season.  The Midshipmen went 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games.  They took four-team playoff participant Cincinnati to the wire in a 20-27 loss as 29-point dogs.  They actually outgained Cincinnati by 37 yards in that contest.

They went on to upset Tulsa 20-17 as 12-point road dogs and outgained them by 8 yards.  Their only non-cover was a 6-34 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs, and Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country as well so that's understandable.  They took a very good ECU team to the wire in a 35-38 loss as 3.5-point dogs.  Then they crushed Tulsa 38-14 as 13.5-point favorites in their finale.  They are playing well enough to stay within a touchdown of Army and possibly pull off the upset.

Army played a much easier schedule of opposing defenses which is why its offensive numbers are better than Navy.  But these teams are pretty even defensively despite Navy playing the much tougher schedule of opposing offenses.  Navy gives up just 359.8 yards per game on the season, 132 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Army allows 324.1 yards per game, 3.7 per carry and 104 rushing yards per game.  

Navy's defense is good enough to keep them in this game, and it's expected to be low scoring with a 34-point total, so getting over a touchdown here is a nice value.  The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Navy Saturday.

20* Steelers/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Vikings and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Vikings are coming off two straight road losses to the 49ers and Lions, and that upset loss to the Lions looks real bad.  Meanwhile, the Steelers just upset the Ravens at home.

But now the Steelers hit the road on a short week off a physical game against the Ravens.  Their last two road performances were miserable.  They lost 10-41 at Cincinnati and 37-41 to the Chargers in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were down 27-10 going into the 4th quarter before miraculously scoring 27 points in the final period.  They were outgained by 233 yards by the Chargers and should have lost by more.

Minnesota is back home where they were last seen upsetting the Green Bay Packers.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Their season is on the line here, so we'll get a big effort from them.  And they get back three key players from injury in LB Eric Kendricks, LB Anthony Barr and CB Patrick Peterson.  Being without those three is a big reason why the Lions had success on offense against them last week.

The stats show the Vikings are by far the superior team.  They rank 7th in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense while the Steelers rank just 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is slightly better on defense at 5.7 yards per play allowed while Minnesota gives up 5.8 yards per play.  But the Steelers have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses compared to the Vikings.

Minnesota is much better than its 5-7 record as all seven losses have come by one score.  Pittsburgh isn't as good as its 6-5-1 record as four of its five losses have come by double-digits, while all six wins have come by one score.  So we are getting artificial line value here on the Vikings because most look at these as even teams and give the Vikings 3 points for home field.  But that's just not the case.  The Vikings are the far superior team and it will show tonight.

Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a loss.

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Vikings Thursday.

20* Patriots/Bills MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo -2.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with most their wins coming via blowout.  But it has been about as an easy a schedule as possible.  They beat the banged-up Jets, the Chargers, the Panthers, the banged-up Browns, the banged-up Falcons and the banged-up Titans.  This is a huge step up in class for them Monday night.

The Buffalo Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.  They bounced back from a bad loss to the Colts where they had four turnovers with a 31-6 road win over the Saints on Thanksgiving.  Now they have had extra rest and will be ready to go Monday night with a great atmosphere in Buffalo with first place on the line in the AFC East.  We'll get an 'A' effort from the Bills, and their 'A' game is much better than that of the Patriots.

New England relies heavily on running the football.  Well, the Bills have allowed 79 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last five games overall.  They key to their run defense is LB Tremaine Edmunds.  The Bills only give up 3.6 yards per carry with him on the field.  Edmunds is healthy now, and this is one of the healthiest rosters in the entire NFL.

I've heard plenty about the weather in Buffalo Monday night being a reason bettors are on the Patriots.  I disagree that the temps in the 20s with near-20 MPH winds helps New England.  I think it actually favors the Bills, who have a strong-armed quarterback in Josh Allen who can cut through any wind, and also beat the Patriots with his legs.  

Mac Jones is more of a finesse quarterback who will struggle more with the wind than Allen will.  The Bills are a better rushing team than the Patriots, too.  They average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry, while the Patriots average 115 yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  New England is only outgaining its opponents by 38.7 yards per game, while Buffalo is outgaining opponents by 113.7 yards per game.  The Bills are clearly the better team and should be more than 2.5-point home favorites here.

Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when the line is +3 to -3.  The Bills are 10-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Buffalo is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 4 yards per play or less last game.  The Bills are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  The Patriots come back down to reality with this big step up in competition this week.  Roll with the Bills Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Chargers/Bengals OVER 49

These are two of the better offenses in the NFL and they should have no problem combining to top 49 points in this game Sunday.  It will be sunny with temperatures in the 40's in Cincinnati on Sunday with light winds under 10 MPH.  The weather will make for perfect scoring conditions in this matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Bengals are scoring 28.1 points per game this season.  Joe Burrow is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,835 yards with a 22-to-12 TD/INT ratio this season.  Joe Mixon has rushed for 924 yards and 11 touchdowns and should have a huge game on the ground against a Chargers defense that is the worst in the NFL against the run.  They give up 145 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry this season, and 26.6 points per game overall.

The Chargers are scoring 24.8 points per game this season and averaging 383.8 yards per game.  Justin Herbert is completing 66% of his passes for 3,230 yards with a 24-to-10 TD/INT ratio.  Austin Ekeler has rushed for 604 yards and has 473 receiving yards with 14 combined touchdowns.  The Bengals have good defensive numbers, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NFL of opposing offenses.  Their defense isn't as good as the numbers would suggest.

The OVER is 6-1-1 in Bengals last eight games as home favorites.  The OVER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Look for a shootout as Burrow and Herbert try and match each other score for score in this one.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons +11

Cordarrelle Patterson has meant everything to this Atlanta offense this season.  He has 411 rushing yards and four touchdowns to go along with 41 receptions for 500 yards and five scores.  With Calvin Ridley out, his presence on the field is even bigger.  Their offense has been good with him, but without him it has been dreadful.

The Falcons are going to want revenge from a 25-48 road loss to the Bucs as 13-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was much closer than the final score showed as it was a 3-point game in the 4th quarter before two straight pick-6's from Matt Ryan to blow it open.  That's unlikely to happen again, and I like the Falcons' chances of matching Tom Brady and company score for score in this one to stay within this massive 11-point spread.

The Falcons will never be out of this game because they will be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.  The Bucs give up 67.7% completions on the season and their secondary is their weakness.

Tampa Bay is 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS in road games this season with its three wins coming by 6 of Philadelphia, by 2 of New England and by 7 over Indianapolis.  So the Bucs haven't blown anyone out on the road this year.  They were fortunate to beat the Colts last week, who handed that game away by committing five turnovers in a 31-38 defeat.

Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after playing a game where 60 points or more were scored.  The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games and have been great at playing the role of spoiler down the stretch in recent years.  But they are still 5-6 this season and very much alive for the playoffs, so they have a lot to play for.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Texans +10

This is a terrible spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  After crushing the Bills on the road, they came back home and blew a double-digit lead against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in a 38-31 shootout defeat.  That loss will have taken a lot out of them, and now this is a sandwich spot with bigger games on deck against the Patriots and Cardinals.  They will be overlooking the Texans.

We saw what happens when a team overlooks Tyrod Taylor and the Texans two weeks ago.  They went into Tennessee and won outright as 10-point dogs.  And after coming back home and losing to the Jets, we are getting great value on the Texans again this week as double-digit home underdogs.  They will get up for this game against a division opponent just as they did for the Titans two weeks ago.

This Houston defense is improving, and the offense is much better with Taylor, who has been a covering machine throughout his career.  The Texans are allowing just 17.0 points per game in their last three games while forcing 11 turnovers.  They have not quit on that side of the ball.  Their offense can make enough plays with Taylor to keep this game close, too.

Indianapolis beat Houston 31-3 at home in their first meeting, making this a revenge game for the Texans and adding to their motivation.  But that game was with Davis Mills at QB for the Texans, and it was much closer than the final score showed.  Indianapolis only outgained Houston by 35 yards in that contest.  But the Texans beat themselves by being -3 in turnovers and failing to score on several red zone trips.  Taylor won't make the same mistakes that Mills did.

Houston is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 points or more.  The Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games following a home loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Houston) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Dolphins -4

The Miami Dolphins are grossly undervalued after a 1-7 start this season.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS since as they have gotten healthy and gotten back to playing the same dominant defense that got them as far as they did last year.

The Dolphins beat the Texans 17-9 with Jacob Brissett and held them to just 272 total yards while forcing four turnovers.  They then beat the Ravens 22-10 and held them to 304 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  They went on to beat the Jets 24-17.  And last week they crushed the Panthers 33-10 at home and held them to just 198 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

Tua returned in the second half against the Ravens and had a great finish, completing 8-of-13 passes for 158 yards while also rushing for a score.  He started against the Jets and had another solid game through the air, going 27-of-33 passing for 273 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.  And last week he went 27-of-31 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown without a pick against a very good Carolina defense.  That's 81% completions for Tua over the last three weeks.  Having Tua back healthy and a dominant defense makes the Dolphins a sleeper moving forward.  

Now they take on the Giants, who have about as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now.  It got even worse with QB Daniel Jones ruled out this week, so Mike Glennon will get the start in his place.  They will also be without WR's Sterling Shepard and Kedarius Toney with several other key players either ruled out or questionable.  They have one of the worst injury reports in the entire NFL.

Miami has been blitzing a ton in recent weeks and trusting their lockdown secondary, which has been the key to their turnaround defensively.  The statue, Glennon, is going to be under duress all game, and he doesn't have the healthy playmakers around him to make the Dolphins pay for blitzing.  They will continue their recent surge with a 5th straight win and cover in blowout fashion over the short-handed Giants on Sunday.  They will be up against a shaky New York offense that has managed just 264, 215 and 245 total yards in the three weeks, respectively.

The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning two of their last three games.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 50

This game definitely sets up to be a shootout.  I don't think it will be as high scoring as the first meeting when the Bucs won 48-25 for 73 combined points.  There won't be as many defensive touchdowns.  But we just need the OVER 50 here, and that shouldn't be a problem.

The Bucs are decimated in the secondary right now, which will allow Matt Ryan to have a big game, especially since he has a healthy Cordarrelle Patterson back to get the ball to.  Patterson has been almost as important a player to his team as any player in the NFL this season that's a non-quarterback.  It's a Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Richard Sherman, Carlton Davis and Mike Edwards and could be without Jamel Dean.

The Bucs got Gronk back on offense and are hitting on all cylinders on that side of the ball.  They followed up a 30-point performance against the Giants with 38 points against the Colts last week.  They should easily get to 30 or more here, and I think the Falcons are good for at least 20 while trying to pay catch up against a soft Bucs secondary.

The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings, including 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  They have combined for 50 or more points in 10 of their last 11 meetings.  The Bucs are 17-5 OVER in their last 22 games vs. division opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game.  Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff.  Lose and they don't.  That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity.  They just need to win.

Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech.  The Cougars have been flying under the radar.  And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point.  They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose.  Look for one of their best performances of the season.

These teams aren't that far off statistically.  Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game.  Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game.  This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance.

Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season.  He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.  Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio.

Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game.  The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Houston Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53

Talk about familiarity.  Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years.  This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season.  

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings.  Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season.  While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed.  They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers.  That's not going to happen again.

Both teams live off running the football and playing defense.  Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts.  Louisiana allows just 18.5 points  per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better.  The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3

It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season.  They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine.  That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer.

The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average.  They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game.  They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards.

Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history.  The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan.  That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting.

The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting.  It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting.  The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team.

Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game.  Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Utah has never won a Pac-12 Championship.  They have won the Pac-12 South now three of the last four years.  But they came up shot in their two title games to Washington in 2018 and Oregon in 2019.  The Utes will be highly motivated to hand Kyle Whittingham his first Pac-12 Championship this weekend.

That's why I'm not worried about any type of letdown that would occur from having already beaten Oregon 38-7 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  It will be more of the same here as Utah shuts down the Oregon rushing attack, forcing the inaccurate Anthony Brown to try and beat them through the air.

In that first meeting, Utah held Oregon to just 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 294 total yards overall.  The Utes did what they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 208 yards and gaining 386 total yards for the game.  They played a vanilla second half after taking a 28-0 lead or they could have won by more.

This Utah team has been a different animal since Cam Rising took over at quarterback.  They have won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 9 points or more.  They have outgained seven of those nine opponents with the only exceptions being -7 against USC and -13 against Oregon State.  

Rising has a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio through the air, but his dual-threat ability has been what makes him tough to tame.  He has rushed for 346 yards and five scores while averaging 6.4 per carry.  In all honesty, these teams are pretty even outside of quarterback play.  Their season-long stats are about the same offensively with Utah having the slight edge on defense.  Rising over Brown, the edges on defense and special teams, and Whittingham over Cristobal makes Utah an easy choice as only a 2.5-point favorite.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. teams that complete 62% of their passes or better.  The Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games, and 34-13 ATS in their last 47 after allowing 125 or less in three straight.  The Ducks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* Cowboys/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -5

The Dallas Cowboys should get right tonight after losing two straight and three of their last four.  They get several key players back from injury this week, not the least of which are their top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.

The Cowboys should score at will on a Saints defense that is mostly responsible for going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They were upset at home as 7-point favorites against the Falcons, lost by 2 on the road to a banged-up Tennessee team, lost by 11 as 3-point dogs at Philadelphia and lost by 25 as 7-point home dogs to the Bills.

This New Orleans defense gave up 40 points to Philadelphia and 31 more to Buffalo.  I think the Cowboys will get to 30 in this game, and that will be enough to cover this 5-point spread because this New Orleans offense is broken as well.

Trevor Siemian went 0-3 as a starter and now the Saints are likely to turn to the hobbled Taysom Hill in desperation.  They have terrible weapons on the outside, and Alvin Kamara is questionable to return this week.  They have several injuries on defense and on offense that have held them back in recent weeks and continue to be a problem.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season.  New Orleans is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Dallas is getting right now in the health department, and New Orleans is broken.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Seattle/Washington ESPN No-Brainer on Washington PK

The Washington Football Team has climbed its way back into playoff contention by winning two straight games outright as underdogs.  They beat the Bucs 29-19 as 10-point home dogs before going on the road and topping the Panthers 27-21 as 3-point dogs.  They had a bye prior to the Tampa Bay game and have come back a different team.

But Washington has been playing elite defense for weeks.  In their last four games, they held the Packers to 24 points and 304 yards, the Broncos to 17 points and 273 yards, the Bucs to 19 points and 273 yards and the Panthers to 21 points and 297 yards.

Their defense should win them this game as well against a Seattle offense that can't get anything going.  The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games.  They have scored a combined 13 points in their two games since Russell Wilson returned, so his presence hasn't mattered and he does not look healthy.  

The Seahawks are now 3-7 and out of playoff contention.  Their numbers are every bit as bad as their record suggests.  They are averaging just 298.6 yards per game on offense and allowing 401.8 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by a whopping 103.2 yards per game.  To compare, Washington is only getting outgained by 20.7 yards per game on the season.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games in the second half of the season.  Seattle is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Football Team is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.  Ron Rivera is 21-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog as a head coach.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  Bet Washington Monday.