Winning Sports Picks

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

15* ECU/Florida Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on East Carolina +7

The East Carolina Pirates are chomping at the bit at an opportunity to play a team from the SEC in the Birmingham Bowl and to prove that they are the real deal, just as they have against a few other Power 5 conference teams throughout the regular season. The Gators, meanwhile, are not happy to be here as they had much higher expectations coming into the year.

Due to underachieving for a second consecutive season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp was fired. The interim head coach will be defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will also be out of a job at season’s end. That’s because new head coach Jim McElwain has already hired Mississippi State’s Geoff Collins to replace Durkin as defensive coordinator next season. So, the Gators are really in a state of limbo here, and I don’t expect them to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to put away ECU by more than a touchdown.

The Gators face an East Carolina offense that can put up points in bunches. The Pirates rank 5th in the FBS with 532.8 yards per game and tied for 14th with an average of 37.2 points. Their passing game was second with 367.3 yards per game. They didn’t just put up these numbers against weak competition, either.

In three consecutive matchups against Power 5 conference programs South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, ECU averaged 581.3 yards and 40.3 points. It lost 33-23 at then-No. 21 South Carolina before a 28-21 win at then-No. 17 Virginia Tech and a 70-41 home blowout of North Carolina. Florida suffered a 23-20 overtime home loss to South Carolina on November 15 for the team’s only common opponent.

Shane Carden may be the most underrated quarterback in the entire country. He is completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,309 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, while also rushing for six scores on the season. The Pirates have three very good receivers in Justin Hardy (110 receptions, 1,334 yards, 9 TD), Cam Worthy (47, 886, 3 TD) and Isaiah Jones (75, 766, 5 TD) for Carden to get the ball to. Breon Allen (869 yards, 6.5/carry) and Chris Hairston (455 yards, 7.3/carry) are explosive in the running game as well.

Yes, the Gators have one of the better defenses in the country, but their offense is the reason why they aren’t going to put away the Pirates by a touchdown or more. Florida failed to crack 300 yards in five of 11 games this season. It ranked 11th in the SEC in total offense (370.2 yards/game), and its 12th-ranked passing attack (180.7 yards/game) never built any momentum in league play.

A big reason why the Pirates are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 163 yards per game this season is because they have actually been respectable defensively as well. They are giving up just 25.7 points per game and 369.7 yards per game this season. They did play the easier schedule than Florida, but what they did against those three Power 5 teams shows that they can play with anyone.

East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three years. They are coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. ECU is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

20* Iowa/Tennessee TaxSlayer Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) are extremely excited to be playing in this bowl game after going 5-7 each of the last three years and missing out. This will be their first bowl game since 2010, and they’ll be looking for their first win in a bowl since 2007. There’s no question that the Vols are going to be highly motivated because of it, and I look for them to get that elusive bowl win over Iowa this year.

Not many teams could benefit from bowl practice as much as this Tennessee squad. Head coach Butch Jones has put together two of the top recruiting classes in the country in his two years here, and this is still a very young team. In fact, the Vols had to break in five new starters along the offensive line, and four new starters along the defensive line this year. They did a tremendous job of getting to a bowl game with all of this youth.

What makes this bowl berth even more impressive is the fact that Tennessee played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Just playing in the SEC makes the schedule tough, but the Vols also had to play three more bowl teams out of conference. They beat Utah State 38-7 and Arkansas State 34-19, but lost at Oklahoma 10-34. They also drew two of the best teams from the SEC West in Alabama and Ole Miss.

To no surprise, this young Tennessee team got better as the season went on. In fact, it was sitting at 3-5 needing three wins in its final four games to get to a bowl, and that’s precisely what it did. The Vols beat South Carolina 45-42 on the road, Kentucky 50-16 at home, and Vanderbilt 24-17 on the road in the season finale to get in. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-29 to SEC East champ Missouri.

The Vols averaged 35 points per game over their final four games of the season. Their offense really took off once Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley at quarterback with five games to go. He even played well in a 20-34 home loss to Alabama, and then proceeded to step up his game the rest of the way. Dobbs finished the season completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 393 yards and six scores in just five games. It’s his dual-threat ability that has really helped out this offense.

Tennessee has also been very good on the other side of the football. It is giving up just 23.9 points, 359.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 30.1 points, 400 yards per game and 5.8 per play. So, the Vols are holding their opponents to 6.2 points, 40 yards and 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season. This is the sign of a really good defense and one that will be able to limit a weak Iowa offense.

The Hawkeyes had a schedule that was set up to make a run at the Big Ten West division title this season. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the Big Ten East, and they got to play both Maryland and Indiana from that division. They also got to host fellow West contenders Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Well, they managed to go just 4-4 within the Big Ten despite playing such a soft schedule.

Iowa went 1-4 against bowl teams this season, while Tennessee went 3-6 against bowl teams, which just shows you how much more difficult of a schedule the Volunteers played this year. Iowa lost to Nebraska (34-37) and Wisconsin (24-26) at home, while also falling at Minnesota (14-51) and at Maryland (31-38) on the road. Its only win over a bowl team was a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s six losses to bowl teams came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri. The Vols lost three of those six games by a combined 12 points.

Tennessee is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Vols are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games off two more more consecutive ATS losses. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Bet Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl Friday.

15* Ohio State/Alabama New Year's Day BAILOUT on Alabama -8.5

Alabama went through a gauntlet of a schedule this season to win the SEC in what is easily the best conference in the country. As a result, it is certainly battle-tested, and I would argue that it has played three to four teams this year that are better than Ohio State. Meanwhile, this will be by far the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced all season.

I personally do not believe the Buckeyes are one of the best four teams in the country. They simply benefited from playing a cake schedule, and Vegas seems to agree. There were 10 teams from the Big Ten that made bowl games this year, and all 10 of them are underdogs. That just goes to show you what Vegas thinks of the Big Ten this year. Ohio State may have won the conference, but that’s nothing compared to Alabama winning the SEC.

What has impressed me about Alabama the most this year is that it has had one of its best offenses in school history. It averages 37.1 points and 488.4 yards per game this season. Freshman Blake Sims has played like a seasoned veteran. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards and six scores.

If you look past Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, you find that its defense was not playing well at all in the four games previous. It had given up at least 24 points in four straight games, and an average of 28.3 points per game during this stretch. It has given up 24 or more points a whopping eight times this year in 13 games. There’s no question the Crimson Tide are going to have their way with this Ohio State defense.

I would argue that Alabama has the best defense in the country when you factor in strength of schedule. It ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game while ranking 11th in total defense at 312.1 yards per game. It is 2nd against the run at 88.4 yards per game and 2.8 per carry allowed. Alabama’s ability to stop the run is going to be the biggest reason as to why it wins and covers.

Ohio State relies very heavily on its rushing attack as it runs the ball 45 times per game for 261 yards compared to 27 pass attempts per game. It has to be an even more run-heavy team now that J.T. Barrett is out for this bowl game with an injury. Yes, backup Cardale Jones played well against Wisconsin, but he had the element of surprise with the Badgers. The Crimson Tide now have game tape on him and will certainly know what to expect. Jones won’t be nearly as effective against the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.

The Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Alabama is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games following three or more consecutive wins. The Crimson Tide are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Roll with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8

There are many that believe the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) are not one of the best four teams in the country. They have won so many close games this season, seven by six points or less in fact, so their argument does have some weight. However, this team has played a much tougher schedule than they did a year ago, and I’m not so sure that this team isn’t as good as the one that won the national title last year.

There is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win games. Florida State has now won a whopping 29 straight games dating back over the past three seasons. Now, the Seminoles find themselves in the role of the underdog for the first time in the last two years. They are getting no respect from the books in this game, and Jimbo Fisher will be using this as serious motivation for his players. While they may ultimately have their winning streak come to an end against the Ducks, I don’t believe it will be by 9 points or more, which is what it would take for Oregon to cover this ridiculous 8-point spread.

Oregon comes in way overvalued due to not only winning eight straight games, but also covering the spread in eight straight. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Ducks. This has forced oddsmakers to set the line for this game higher than it should be. It’s usually a wise move to fade the public, and that’s precisely what I’ll recommend doing in this game Thursday.

Florida State, on the other hand, actually comes in undervalued despite its perfect 13-0 record this year. That’s because it has gone just 3-10 ATS in all games. It simply created expectations for itself after winning the national title that it could not live up to this year. The Seminoles have been favored in every game they have played this year, and most of the time by too many points. That’s why there has been so much value in going against them up to this point. That fade value is now all gone, and it’s time to jump back on them.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense that puts up 34.8 points, 434.8 yards and 6.4 yards per play against opponents that allow just 25.3 points, 360 yards and 5.3 per play. So, they are scoring 10 points per game and averaging 75 yards per game more than their opponents allow on the season. Jameis Winston just finds a way to get it done when the game is in the balance, and my money is on him to do so on the biggest of stages again in this one.

Oregon has put up some gaudy numbers offensively this year. However, you have to factor in who they have played before you get too excited about this offense. They have played defenses that allow 31.7 points and 432 yards per game on the season. That is a much softer slate than what the Seminoles have been up against this year. I would only give the Ducks a slight edge on offense.

Defensively, the edge has to go to the Seminoles, who are giving up 23.0 points and 378.3 yards per game. Oregon allows 413.8 yards per game this season as its stop unit simply has not been that good. I believe one of the biggest reasons the Seminoles have a chance to win this game is their run defense, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry. Unlike most other teams the Ducks face, the Seminoles actually have the athleticism and speed defensively to match up with Oregon’s offense.

Florida State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in. The Seminoles are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. It has won six straight bowl games coming in and has not lost a bowl game by double-digits since 2003.  Bet Florida State in the Rose Bowl Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/Auburn Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -6.5

I was one of the biggest Auburn haters coming into the season that you will find. They were extremely fortunate to win the SEC and make it to the national title game last year as they won a ridiculous amount of close games along the way and got every break to go in their favor. Their season win total was set at 9.5 and it was one of my favorite ‘under’ bets coming into the year.

I wasn’t so sure I was going to cash that bet until the Tigers lost three of their final four games to close out the season. It was also very profitable to fade this team all year against the spread as they wound up with just a 4-8 ATS record. So, my instinct was correct on them being overvalued this season. However, I now am reversing roles and looking to back them as they are undervalued coming into the bowl game.

Indeed, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven. They have burned the betting public time and time again, and now the public wants nothing to do with them. When this happens, you can find a lot of value in backing these teams, and I believe that to be the case in this game. There’s no way Auburn should be laying less than a touchdown to Wisconsin.

For starters, the Tigers play in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West. Had they played in any other division in America, they would have probably won that division. There are no easy outs in the SEC West, and Auburn found that out the hard way, losing four games to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

I actually faded Auburn in the Alabama game thinking that the Tigers were going to get rolled. While the Crimson Tide did end up covering in an 11-point home win as 10-point favorites, I never felt like they deserved to cover as they trailed for most of the game. Auburn actually racked up 630 total yards on that Alabama defense, outgaining the Crimson Tide by 91 total yards in the game. It was that performance that makes me know that the Tigers are still a very good team and one of the best in the country.

Wisconsin beat up on a very easy schedule this season coming from the Big Ten, which is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. It managed to avoid BOTH Ohio State and Michigan State from the other division, and that fact alone made it the favorites to win its division. It wasn’t easy as the Badgers had to beat Minnesota 34-24 at home in the season finale to get into the championship game.

It was in that championship game that the Badgers’ true colors showed. They were outplayed in every phase of the game by Ohio State, losing that game 59-0 while getting outgained by 300 total yards. The Badgers managed just 258 yards and gave up 558 yards. I believe that Auburn is a better team than Ohio State, and while I don’t expect the Tigers to win this game by 59, I do expect them to win by a touchdown or more with relative ease.

Auburn was very good on both sides of the football this year. It put up 35.8 points, 489.6 yards per game and 6.7 per play against teams that only gave up 23.5 points, 371 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Tigers gave up 26.1 points, 389.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that averaged 31.4 points, 417 yards per game and 5.9 per play.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s numbers look good on paper, but when you factor in the strength of opponents played, they no longer look that great. They played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their 10 wins coming against the likes of Western Illinois, Bowling Green, South Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Not one of those teams is near the caliber of two of the three teams they lost to in LSU and Ohio State.  It also lost to Northwestern 14-20.

Auburn is 9-1 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in its last game over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 15.5 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their last game. They are winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Take Auburn in the Outback Bowl Thursday.

20* GA Tech/Mississippi State New Year's Eve No-Brainer on Mississippi State -6.5

I would be willing to argue that the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) are one of the top four teams in the country. Obviously, with two losses, they weren’t going to get into the four-team playoff over conference champions with one or fewer losses. However, finishing in second place in the toughest division in the country is no small feat. The Bulldogs had their chances to make the playoff after a 9-0 start, but they lost two of their final three games of the season.

I believe losing two of their final three games has the Bulldogs actually undervalued coming into this game. The betting public has simply forgotten about them. But when you look at those losses, you find that they are not bad at all. They only lost 20-25 at Alabama as 10-point underdogs, and 17-31 at Ole Miss as 2.5-point favorites. They actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 93 yards on the road, so that there shows that they can play with what everyone perceives as the best team in the country. Had either of those games against Alabama and Ole Miss been played in Starkville, they likely would have been different outcomes.

Mississippi State went 5-2 against bowl teams this season. It beat LSU (34-29) and South Alabama (35-3) on the road, while also topping Texas A&M (38-23), Auburn (38-23) and Arkansas (17-10) at home. This was obviously one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country, and I’d have to say that the Bulldogs handled themselves pretty well. They are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game because it seems like the national media has simply forgotten about them.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued. It has gone 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. It beat Georgia 30-24 on the road in the final week of the regular season. Well, the Bulldogs were deflated coming into that game after falling short of making the SEC Championship Game with Missouri’s win over Arkansas in the season finale. They also only lost 35-37 to Florida State after scoring a touchdown with only seconds remaining to make that score appear closer than it really was.

Mississippi State’s offense was nothing short of elite this season. It put up 37.2 points, 506.2 yards per game and 6.6 per play to rank 9th in the country in total offense. Its opposing defenses only gave up 27.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season. So, it outscored its opposing defenses’ season averages by 10 points per game, and outgained them by 108 yards per game. Georgia Tech’s defense allows 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 yards per play.

However, the reason I really love this matchup for the Bulldogs is their defense. They struggled against the pass this season, but they were elite against the run. The Bulldogs only allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. They give up 285 passing yards per game, but that’s not going to come into play here because Georgia Tech only averages 135 passing yards per game.

Plus, the Yellow Jackets are expected to be without leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (35 receptions, 715 yards, 7 TD), who accounted for roughly half of their receiving totals on the year. They average 334 rushing yards per game this season in their tripe-option. Well, give the Bulldogs over a month to prepare for it, and their dominant run defense will be up to the task.

Bowl games are a huge disadvantage for triple-option teams. Georgia Tech lost to another SEC team in Ole Miss 17-25 in the Music City Bowl last year. They were held to 298 total yards and gave up 477 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 179 yards in the loss. They only mustered 151 rushing yards on 49 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry against the Rebels last year.

The ACC has not shown very well in bowl games this postseason.  They are 3-5 in bowl games with their only wins coming from VA Tech over Cincinnati, NC State over UCF, and Clemson over Oklahoma.  Both Cincinnati and UCF play in the weak AAC, while Oklahoma did not show up against Clemson.  

What stands out to me is that the ACC is 0-2 against SEC teams as Miami lost to South Carolina 21-24, while Louisville was blown out by Georgia 37-14 last night.  Also, the SEC has been dominant in bowl games this year, going 4-1 up to this points.  This conference is just on another level than the rest, and that will be apparent in this game as well.

Dan Mullen is 11-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average at least 5.25 yards per carry as the coach of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  This trend just goes to show how much they struggle in bowl games because they run a triple-option, which is so easy to prepare for when you have extra time.  Bet Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +7.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the bowl season way undervalued. That’s because they completely fell apart down the stretch after having their national title hopes crushed in a 27-31 loss at Florida State following their 6-0 start. The referees overturned what would have been a game-winning touchdown for the Fighting Irish in the closing seconds, and this team never really recovered from that moment-on.

They went on to beat Navy in a close one 49-39, but then lost each of their final four games to close out the season. They lost 31-55 at Arizona State, 40-43 to Northwestern, 28-31 to Louisville and 14-49 to USC. Obviously, the betting public sees these results and will be quick to fade the Fighting Irish in the bowl game. That has created a ton of line value for us to back them catching a full touchdown, and more in some places, against LSU.

Without question, Notre Dame (7-5) is still one of the most talented teams in the country. It simply self-destructed down the stretch in committing 12 turnovers in its final four games. The collapse was somewhat predictable after that loss to Florida State. You can bet that veteran quarterback Everett Golson is going to take it upon himself to get this team back up off the mat and to put forth the kind of performance that his talent warrants in the bowl game.

Also, I love Brian Kelly as a head coach for a bowl, because he is one of the best motivators in the country. Kelly will be pulling out all the stops on his players to try and get them ready to put their best foot forward against LSU. This is one final chance for the Irish to erase the sour taste out of their mouths from the four-game losing streak to close out the season. If they don’t, these players know it’s going to be a long offseason.

I certainly have to question the motivation of these LSU players coming into this bowl game. They are used to playing in big-time bowl games year in and year out, and they certainly won’t be all that excited to be playing in the Music City Bowl because of it. This is a team that had won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons. Their No. 23 ranking is their lowest heading into the bowl season that I can remember since Les Miles took over.

LSU (8-4) did have a propensity of playing in close games against most of its top competition this season. It had six games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Those six include wins over Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17), as well as losses to Alabama (13-20) and Mississippi State (29-34).  So, the Tigers went a fortunate 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less.

The reason the Tigers play in so many close games is because they have a solid defense that can keep them in games, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers are putting up just 27.6 points, 383.4 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that allow 26.4 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play. You can tell from these numbers that the Tigers are no more than an average offense.

There’s no question that the Fighting Irish have a huge edge on that side of the ball. They are scoring 33.0 points per game, averaging 444.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 26.0 points, 379 yards and 5.3 per play. Aside from the turnovers, Golson has really had a fine season. He is completing 60.1% of his passes for 3,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also rushing for 280 yards and eight scores.

I’ll gladly back Golson over LSU sophomore Anthony Jennings in this one. The Tigers have struggled at the quarterback position all season, and I would argue that Jennings is a worse starter than Brandon Harris, who had completed 55.6% of his passes for 452 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings is only completing 48.8% of his passes for 1,460 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven picks. He is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt compared to Harris’ 10.0 per attempt. Also, Jennings has rushed for only 284 yards while averaging 2.8 per carry without a touchdown.

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games when playing against a good team that wins between 60% and 75% of its games. LSU is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Bet Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl Tuesday.

Note - The above is my original analysis. I am writing this note on the morning of December 30th.  I just wanted to let you know that I still recommend Notre Dame +7.5 even though there is news that has come out recently that Golson will split time with Malik Zaire at QB in the bowl game.  I believe Brian Kelly made these plans just to keep things competitive in practice during this long bowl break.  It will be better for the team in the long haul.  It also gives LSU a lot more to prepare for, which is good strategy  by Kelly.  I still expect Golson to play most of this game.

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

20* Bengals/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3.5

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this one. The Steelers have won three in a row, while the Bengals have won five of their last six. However, I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team and I look for them to put away the Bengals by four or more points Sunday night to get the cover.

Pittsburgh has really been on a mission this season. It was coming off two straight 8-8 campaigns where it fell short of the playoffs, but it has been determined to make the playoffs this year. Now that it has clinched a playoff spot, it wants more considering Cincinnati has taken over this division in recent years. This is the Steelers’ chance to prove that they are still the kings of the AFC North, and they get to do so at home, which is a huge advantage for them.

What Pittsburgh has done the last three weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. It has taken on three playoff contenders, and it has beaten them all by a touchdown or more. It started with a 42-21 win at Cincinnati on December 7th. The Steelers went on the road the next week and beat the Falcons 27-20. Then, last week, their No. 1 red zone defense came up huge as they limited the Chiefs to four field goals in a 20-12 home win.

Let’s take a look back at that 42-21 win by the Steelers over the Bengals. That game was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals by 135 total yards for the game. Their offense racked up 543 total yards in the win. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns.

That was one of many high-octane offensive performances from the Steelers this season. They are putting up 27.3 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 414.5 yards per game. Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 4,635 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bell has rushed for 1,341 yards and eight scores, while also catching 77 balls for 774 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bengals rely heavily on the run to move the football, averaging 135 rushing yards per game.  Well, the Steelers held them to just 86 yards on 21 carries in their first meeting of 2014.  The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 99.3 yards per game on the season, making this an excellent matchup for them.  Andy Dalton is going to have to try and beat them, and I don't believe he's capable of doing it.

While the Bengals have the better record than the Steelers at 10-4-1 compared to 10-5, there’s no question that when you look at the numbers, you find that the Steelers are the better team.  That will show up on the field again Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 60.9 yards per game. Cincinnati ranks just 20th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 11.5 yards per game.

Keep in mind that the Bengals will be working on a short week since they played the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 16. That’s another advantage the Steelers have coming into this one.  Also, Andy Dalton has been battling the flu all week and has missed practice time as a result.  The flu has also kept tight end Jermaine Gresham and defensive backs Terence Newman and Reggie Nelson out of practice.  All four guys are expected to play, but missing practice time on a short week like this is big, especially for Dalton.

Plays against road teams (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five years.

The Steelers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Rams +13

This is a massive number and if you are going to play this game, you certainly should be siding with the Rams and the 13 points. Yes, the Seahawks are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the No. 1 seed, but that’s also the reason they are laying so many points. Oddsmakers tend to overvalue teams with a lot to play for because the know the betting public tends to back these teams.

The St. Louis Rams would love nothing more than to pull off the upset and to end the Seahawks’ chances of getting home field. With the way they have been playing lately, they certainly are capable of hanging with the Seahawks. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall with wins over the Broncos, Raiders and Redskins. Two of their three losses came by 3 and 6 points to San Diego and Arizona, respectively.

Sure, they lost by 10 to the Giants last week, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game, which is why I was on the Giants +6.5 last week.  It was a hangover spot from their loss to Arizona the previous week, and it was a lookahead spot to this game against Seattle.  Plus, the Giants are playing great football right now having won three straight and having scored 24 or more points in five straight.  So, that 10-point loss is not as bad as it looks when you factor everything in.

Plus, the Rams have already proven they can hang with the Seahawks. They did just that back on October 19th as they pulled off the 28-26 upset at home despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Tre Mason rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to lead the way offensively. The defense held Marshawn Lynch to just 53 rushing yards on 18 carries in the win.

This St. Louis defense has been unreal here of late. It has not allowed a touchdown in three of its past four games overall. It beat Oakland 52-0 at home, Washington 24-0 on the road, and lost to Arizona 6-12 at home while limiting the Cardinals to just four field goals in the loss. I know last week’s performance against the Giants was not good defensively, but again, the Rams were looking ahead to this game.

Seattle is coming off a very gratifying win at Arizona last week by a final of 35-6. That game was for first place in the NFC West, and with the win, the Seahawks now control their own destiny. I know they still have a lot to play for this week, but the Seahawks are also in a potential letdown spot here after that big win over Arizona.

It’s going to be very hard for them to match the intensity they played with in that game, and also difficult to live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming in.  I really like fading teams who are on extended ATS win streaks because almost every time they are overvalued by oddsmakers once these streaks reach four, five games.  The betting public just cannot get enough of the Seahawks right now.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) – revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks are certainly overvalued due to their recent play and the perception that they’ll be out for revenge, and this trend just goes to show how profitable it has been to fade teams in this spot over the last 10 years.

St. Louis is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Rams are 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years. St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry. The Rams are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a double-digit loss. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 following a blowout win by 21 or more points against a division rival.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +5

The Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for, which is why this line is so small. In my opinion, they shouldn’t even be favored over the Bills given the situation. The Patriots have already clinched home-field advantage in the AFC after their win over the Jets last week. They also needed the Broncos to lose to the Bengals, which happened for them. Now, it would be foolish for Bill Belichick to risk the health of his starters as they look ahead toward the postseason.

With nothing on the line in terms of postseason positioning this week, Belichick said he'll "do whatever is best for the team" when it comes to resting some of his regulars. Reports have surfaced that tight end Rob Gronkowski could rest, and it's unclear if receiver Julian Edelman, offensive lineman Dan Connolly or running back LeGarrette Blount will play after each sat out last week with injuries.

"With the (first-round bye), you realize we're going to have a little time to rest up," quarterback Tom Brady said. "We just want to go out and play well and see if we can string together as many good plays as possible."  That sounds like a guy who knows he's only going to be in there for a series or two.

Even if Belichick plays his starters more than I’m expecting, I have no doubt that those players out there on the field could care less about winning this football game. These players are already looking ahead to who they are going to play in the postseason. Belichick will do his preaching about how it will be important to stay sharp, and he’s right, but it’s just so easy to not be sharp knowing that there’s no consequence if you aren’t.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has every reason to be motivated for a win Sunday despite the fact that it was eliminated from the playoffs last week. The Bills can do something that no other Buffalo team has done since 2004, which is finish a season with a winning record. They will also be out for revenge on the Patriots to try and end this six-game losing streak in the series, and a 13-game losing streak in Foxborough. There are so many positives this team could take away from a win Sunday as they look ahead to next season.

"The game means a lot to me. We're going to play the players that we feel give us the best chance to win," Head coach Doug Marrone said. "That's just the way that I'm wired and that's my responsibility to the team. We all have a responsibility to each other and I have to make those decisions each week."

This Buffalo defense is a big reason why I’ll recommend backing them Sunday. They rank 4th in the league in total defense at 315.7 yards per game, and 4th in scoring defense at 18.7 points per game. This stop unit has played at an elite level for most of the season. In two of their last three games, the Bills held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 0-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s no small feat, and it’s a sign that they can slow down this New England offense, too.

Kyle Orton continues to play well for this Buffalo offense. He has gone 6-5 as a starter this season and has been a huge reason for this team’s turnaround. Orton is completing 63.9% of his passes for 2,842 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. He has managed to get Sammy Watkins involved more than the quarterbacks before him. Watkins has 62 receptions for 925 yards and six scores this year, needing 75 more in this game to reach 1,000 as a rookie, which is mighty impressive.

Plays on any team (BUFFALO) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 64-32 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1983. Buffalo is 13-1 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 26.1 to 17.5 in this spot, or by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Eagles. They just had their playoff hopes crushed with a 24-27 upset loss at Washington last week as 7-point favorites. I don’t expect them to show up at all this week after coming to the realization that they won’t be playing in the postseason. However, the Eagles’ poor play extends back over the past three weeks as well, so it wasn’t just that loss to the Redskins that did them in.

Indeed, the Eagles have now lost three straight games coming in. They lost 14-24 at home to Seattle on December 7th in a game what was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. They were outgained by 301 total yards in that loss to the Seahawks. They also lost 27-38 at home to the Cowboys on December 14th and were outgained by 70 yards in that contest as well. Last week’s loss to the Redskins was just the icing on the cake for them.

New York, on the other hand, comes in playing its best football of the season. This is the second straight year that the Giants have finished strong following a slow start. Last year, they opened 0-6 and wound up finishing 7-9. They are doing the same this year as they have won three straight following a seven-game losing streak.

The Giants have outgained four of their last five opponents, and their solid play extends back six weeks. It started with back to back close losses to the 49ers (10-16) and Cowboys (28-31). They also lost to the Jaguars 24-25 on the road after blowing a 21-point lead in that game. They have turned those close losses into blowout victories each of the last three weeks.

The Giants won 36-7 at Tennessee on December 7th while outgaining the Titans by 195 total yards in the win. They topped Washington 24-13 at home on December 14th in another dominant defensive effort. The Giants then went into St. Louis as 6.5-point underdogs last week and came away with a 37-27 victory, outgaining the Rams by 127 total yards.

This New York offense has really hits its stride in the last five games and is hitting on all cylinders now in this new West Coast system. It has scored at least 24 points in five straight, averaging 29.8 points and 389.0 yards per game during this span. It culminated in the 37-point, 514-yard output against the Rams last week. Coming in, the Rams had not allowed a touchdown in three of their four previous games, so that was no small feat.

Odell Beckham Jr. is setting all kind of records for the numbers he has put up in just 11 games. He now has 79 receptions for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns. This guy just cannot be stopped as he has at least six receptions and at least 90 receiving yards in each of his last eight games, including 130-plus yards and a combined six touchdowns over the last three weeks. As a result, Eli Manning has now put up impressive numbers on the season. He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,981 yards and 29 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Philadelphia backers will point to the Eagles’ 27-0 shutout win over the Giants back on October 12th as a reason to back them again in the rematch. Well, not only do the Giants want some serious revenge from that loss, they certainly were not at full strength in that game. Victor Cruz got hurt in the early stages and the offense just couldn’t get going without him. The offense has found a way without Cruz now due to the emergence of Beckham and is hitting on all cylinders.

The Giants should have plenty of success offensively against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 24.9 points and 366.9 yards per game this season. The Eagles hare just 3-4 on the road this year, where they are giving up 36.9 points per game. The Giants are playing really well defensively right now, giving up just 15.7 points per game in their last three, and 306.0 yards per game in their last four.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) – revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (PHILADELPHIA) – off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1983.

New York is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Week 17 games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games. The wheels have fallen off of the Philadelphia bus, and they won’t be coming back on this week.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +6

I was on the Redskins last week in their 27-24 upset win over the Eagles. I’ll be on them again this week as they continue to show tremendous value as 6-point home underdogs to the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys are being overvalued here for a number of reasons, but mainly because they still could earn a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the playoffs if everything breaks their way.

I also look for the Cowboys to have a letdown this week even with a first-round bye at stake. That’s because they are simply happy to be in the postseason after going 8-8 each of the last three seasons and missing the playoffs. They had a chance in Week 17 to get in each of the last three years, but lost in the finale in all three. They obviously would rather have a first-round bye, but the Redskins aren’t just going to lay down for them.

Also, the Cowboys know deep down inside that their chances of getting a first-round bye are slim to none.  They either need both Seattle and Arizona to lose this week to get one.  Or, they need the Packers/Lions game to end in a tie.  Well, the Seahawks are 13-point favorites over the Rams and likely aren't going to lose.  Obviously, the chances of the Packers/Lions game ending in a tie are slim to none.  So, Dallas is essentially locked into the No. 3 seed, and would be wise to rest its starters given the chance knowing it will have to play next week.

Washington has been an excellent team to back against division opponents despite its struggles as a team in recent years. It always shows up to play the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants, and this year has been no exception. In fact, the Redskins are 2-1 against the Eagles and Cowboys this year, with their only loss coming by a final of 34-37 as 4-point road underdogs at Philadelphia back in Week 3.

The Redskins beat the Cowboys 20-17 (OT) on the road back on October 27th. They racked up 409 total yards on the Cowboys even with Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback in the win. They were 9-point underdogs in that game. Well, if you adjust for home-field advantage, they should only be 3-point underdogs in the rematch. Instead, they are 6-point dogs, which is giving up three full points of value while crossing the key numbers of 3, 4 and 6 along the way.

Another reason the Cowboys are overvalued in this game is because they are coming off a blowout win over the Colts last week by a final of 42-7. Well, while that 35-point win looks good, it really wasn’t that impressive when you consider the state of mind the Colts were in. The Colts had just clinched their division the previous week, and they had no shot of earning a first-round bye even if they won out. So, they didn’t show up, and they rested T.Y. Hilton in the loss. I knew they weren’t going to show up, which is why I was on the Cowboys last week.

If you simply looked at the numbers alone and not the records, you’ll find that the Redskins aren’t really that much worse of a team than the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas ranks 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 26.5 yards per game. Washington ranks 16th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 5.7 yards per game. The Redskins have the worst record of all the top 18 teams in yardage differential, and it’s not even close. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are aided in this category by outgaining the lifeless Colts by 148 total yards last week.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough in recent years. Indeed, the Redskins are 3-2 straight up in their last five meetings with the Cowboys, and a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dallas has only beaten Washington by more than 3 points once in the last nine meetings. The underdog has brought home the bacon at an alarming rate in this matchup throughout the years. The dog is 25-8 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

"In order to come out here our last game of the year and compete with Dallas and beat Dallas would mean a lot just to see where we are ending the season on two huge victories against two quality opponents and two archrivals," head coach Jay Gruden said.

Robert Griffin III is also out to prove that he is the future of the franchise at quarterback.  He did a fine job last week in completing 16 of 23 passes for 220 yards with one interception in the win over the Eagles.  Griffin III is still probably the best quarterback for this team, and I like the fact that he'll continue playing motivated football this week.  As will the rest of the Redskins, who simply do not like the Cowboys and will be trying to steal this win from them Sunday.

Plays against road favorites (DALLAS) – an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 9 points or less last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1993. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after covering the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Cowboys are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout win by 28 or more points. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

Both the Broncos and Bengals have a ton to play for right now, so I don’t think motivation will be an issue at all in this game. Denver wants to get at least a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the AFC, while Cincinnati is trying to fend off both Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North Title. So, with motivation being a non-issue, this one will come down to which team is better on the field. There’s no question in my mind that team is the Broncos, and the numbers show it's not even close.

Denver ranks 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 91.3 yards per game. Its offense has remained explosive this season in averaging 29.1 points and 400.7 yards per game. But, the biggest different for this team compared to last year is the defense. The Broncos are only allowing 21.6 points and 309.4 yards per game to rank 4th in the entire NFL in total defense.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. There’s no way they should be in first place in the division right now with the numbers they have put up. They rank 19th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 10.0 yards per game on the season despite their 9-4-1 record. They are one of only two teams in the NFL that ranks 19th or worse in yardage differential that currently has a winning record on the season. The Cardinals are the other, and they are also among the league’s most overrated.

Amazingly, Cincinnati has played just five teams with winning records this season. It is 2-3 in those five games with a couple wins over Baltimore by a combined 10 points. Its the losses that are troubling. The Bengals lost 27-0 to the Colts, 43-17 to the Patriots, and 42-21 to the Steelers. They are getting outscored by an average of 12.8 points per game in their five contests against teams with winning records this year. I believe the Broncos are the best team that they have faced yet.

This is a great matchup for the Broncos’ defense as well. The Bengals are a run-heavy team that averages 130 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Only one team in the league has been better at stopping the run than the Broncos. They rank 2nd in the league against the run in allowing just 71.6 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to less than 100 rushing yards, and nine of their last 11 to 74 or fewer on the ground.

Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 2-9 in prime-time games since 2011, the year Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback. That includes an 0-3 record in nationally televised postseason games, and a 2-6 mark in games played unopposed on Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights.  Dalton has just crumbled on the big stage, and he will again Monday night as he feels the pressure mounting.

Peyton Manning is 8-0 all-time against Cincinnati, including a 3-0 December record that’s highlighted by 10 touchdowns passes and no interceptions. The Broncos are 4-0 in night games this season, most recently winning in Kansas City 29-16.  Manning has proven he can handle the big stage and will put on another show Monday night.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last three seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Bengals have lost their last two home games each by 21 points in a 3-24 loss to the Browns and that 21-42 loss to the Steelers.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* Colts/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Under normal circumstances, I believe this 3.5-point spread would be about perfect for these two teams as I view them as equals. Tack on 3 to 3.5 points to the Cowboys for home-field advantage, and this would be the right line. However, these aren’t normal circumstances, and as a result there is a ton of value in backing the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites here.

Dallas is going to show up fully determined for a win Sunday. It still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot, and if it wins out, it will win the NFC East. It even has a chance for home-field advantage because if it wins out and gets some help, it will win the tiebreaker. That’s why I’m not worried at all about the Cowboys possibly having a letdown following their big win over the Eagles last week.

There is no way in hell you should back the Colts (10-4) with the state they’ll be in mentally. They just clinched the AFC South last week with a win over the Texans. So, they are guaranteed a first-round home game. They have no shot at getting a first-round bye because they trail the Broncos (11-3) and Patriots (11-3) each by one game, and they lost to both of those teams to lose out on the tiebreaker.

So, the Colts would need to win out and have either the Broncos or Patriots lose out to get a first-round bye. They know that the chances of either of those teams losing out are slim to none, so they really can’t improve their playoff positioning. I look for the Colts to come out very flat this week and to be looking at getting everyone healthy going into the playoffs.

T.Y. Hilton is the best playmaker the Colts have. Well, he injured his hamstring last week in the win over the Texans, and he is questionable to play this week. Hilton did not practice Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, which is an indication that he probably won't play.  Reggie Wayne (59 catches, 665 yards) was also held out of Friday's practice and is dealing with multiple elements.

My best guess is that the Colts rest Hilton given the position they’re in, which would be a huge loss for the offense. Hilton has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns this year, nearly double the receptions and yardage total of their second-leading receiver (Coby Fleener, 42 receptions, 682 yards) on the team. Without Hilton, Andrew Luck would be pretty lost.

With the Colts' pretty much stagnant playoff situation in mind, there is plenty of talk about Indianapolis resting injured players or veterans such as wide receiver Reggie Wayne.  "We've talked about a lot of guys," head coach Chuck Pagano said. "He's one of the guys that you could consider but we'll look at him, we'll look at guys that are on the injury list that are dealing with nagging injuries and if it's best for them and best for the team then we'll do obviously what's right in all those cases."

Yes, I realize that DeMarco Murray has a broken hand, but running backs play with broken hands all the time. Murray is listed as questionable, but I fully expect him to play as he has been cleared by doctors, and the decision is up to him. Even if for whatever reason he cannot go, then Joseph Randle is more than a capable backup who can shoulder the load. Also, Tony Romo and the Dallas passing game are good enough to win this game without much of a running game. But again, I expect Murray to play.

Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,188 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. The Cowboys are 10-2 in games that Romo has played the entire 60 minutes without injury. The offense should have their way with an Indianapolis defense that is giving up a whopping 29.2 points and 393.7 yards per game on the road this year.

Indianapolis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game in the season half of the season. Dallas is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 home games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. That includes ugly recent losses to the Steelers (34-51) on the road and the Patriots (20-42) at home.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6.5

The Rams are way overvalued right now because of their back-to-back shutout wins over both Oakland and Washington. They had covered four straight games and found themselves as 6-point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Well, they obviously came up short, losing 6-12 .

That loss to the Cardinals officially eliminated the Rams from the playoffs, and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  Now, they find themselves as 6.5-point chalk against an improving New York Giants team that I would argue is every bit as good as the Rams.  St. Louis just has no business laying this big of a number.

The Giants have played very well in each of their last five games. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 210 yards, outgaining them by an average of 42.0 yards per game. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (24-13) and Tennessee (36-7). They blew a 21-0 lead at Jacksonville to lose 24-25. They also played both Dallas (28-31) and San Francisco (10-16) tough as their three losses during this stretch have come by a combined 10 points.  They haven't been beaten by a touchdown or more in any of their last five games.

This New York offense has really started to heat up with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. It has put up 24 or more points in four straight games while averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch. Eli Manning now has decent numbers on the year as he’s competing 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,590 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Manning has thrown for at least 247 yards in four straight games with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio during this stretch.  Beckham has been the biggest reason for his resurgence.  He has 71 catches, including 46 in his last five games, and an NFL-high 62 targets over that span.  He has at least six receptions and 90 yards in each of his last seven games while totaling six touchdowns in his last four.

The defense is also playing its best football of the season here of late. The Giants are allowing just 15.3 points and 279.0 yards per game in their last three contests. They held the Jaguars to just 258 total yards, the Titans to 207 yards, and the Redskins to 372 yards. There’s just no way the Giants should be catching this many points when they are playing great on both sides of the football right now.

In my eyes, these teams are pretty much equals. That also shows up in the stats as the Giants rank 23rd in the league in yardage differential this season, while the Rams rank 24th. So, as equals, this line would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. Give the Rams three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be St. Louis -3. We are getting some real good value here on the Giants as 6.5-point dogs as there are a couple of key numbers between 3 and 6.5 that could work in our favor here.

This also could be a letdown spot for the Rams. They are coming off that tough loss to Arizona last week, and now with nothing to play for at 6-8, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at Seattle in hopes of spoiling the Seahawks’ bid to win the division. They likely won’t be as motivated for this game as they were against Arizona, or as they will be next week in Seattle. That could work against them here as well.

There has been some tension among some St. Louis players and coaches following that loss to Arizona, too.  The defeat caused finger-pointing in which tight end Jared Cook said afterward that the Rams were "outcoached" and "outplayed."  Cook would later go on to say that he regretted saying those words, but sometimes you just cannot take that back.

The Giants' pass rush has seen a big-time resurgence here in recent weeks.  They have produced 22 sacks in their last three games for a total of 41 on the season, which is the fourth-best mark in the NFL.  That's bad news for a Rams' offensive line that has been hurt by injuries and poor play.

Tackle Jake Long is out for the year with a knee injury. Left guard Rodger Saffold is at less than full strength with a nagging shoulder injury that will require offseason surgery. Injury-prone center Scott Wells is wearing a brace covering his left arm while right guard Davin Joseph is a journeyman.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS since 1983. The Giants are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game. The Rams are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Giants are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on turf. New York is 5-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with St. Louis dating back to 2001. Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Oddsmakers are saying that these teams are essentially equals with this spread when you factor in three points for home-field advantage. I have little doubt that the Steelers are the better team, and that will show on the football field Sunday. There is a ton of value in backing them as only 3-point home favorites in this contest. The numbers certainly indicate that they are the superior squad.

Indeed, Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 68.5 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Seahawks and Colts rank ahead of the Steelers in this department, so they are in some elite company. Conversely, the Chiefs rank just 18th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained by 8.8 yards per game.

Pittsburgh simply lights up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. It is scoring 27.8 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense at 424.9 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,415 yards with 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Antonio Brown (115 receptions, 1,498 yards, 11 TD) and Le’Veon Bell (1,278 rushing yards, 765 receiving yards, 10 total TD) are both having monster seasons as well.

Kansas City, which ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game, simply is not going to be able to keep up. Alex Smith STILL has not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. As a result, its offense is way too predictable as the Steelers can focus in on stopping Jamaal Charles and the tight ends. Dick LeBeau will have the right game plan in place to make Smith try and beat them downfield, which he is incapable of doing.

This Pittsburgh defense hasn't been lights out by any means, but it has played better in recent weeks with a lot of guys finally getting healthy.  Also, it stops the run pretty well, giving up just 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 per game.  It has allowed a combined 183 rushing yards in its back-to-back wins over Cincinnati (42-21) and Atlanta (27-20).  It has given up less than 100 rushing yards in five of its last seven overall.  Stopping Kansas City's rushing attack will be the key for the Steelers defensively, and they are equipped to do it.

The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season where they are putting up 35.0 points and 460.2 yards per game. The Chiefs are just 3-4 on the road this year where they are scoring 20.3 points per game and averaging 333.3 yards per game. Kansas City just does not play all that well when it gets away from Arrowhead Stadium, while the Steelers have proven that their game travels everywhere with them.

Kansas City is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight up in its last four home meetings with Kansas City.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5

I am taking the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.  Unders went 13-3 in the NFL last week and have been a very profitable bet toward the end of the season as they usually are with the change in weather and the defenses having the advantage over the offenses with so much game film by now.  This is easily my favorite total in Week 16.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL, which is a reason I'm also on the Steelers this week, but it is not going to put up a huge number on this Chiefs' defense.  I look for the Steelers to win in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one somewhere in the neighborhood of a 24-14 game.

Pittsburgh does not have an elite defense this year, but it does stop the run well, which will be the key to stopping Kansas City.  The Steelers are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 rushing yards per game.  They have held the Bengals and Falcons to a combined 183 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and they have allowed less than 100 in five of their last seven.

Kansas City has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  It ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game.  It relies on Jamaal Charles and the running game as well as the tight ends to move the football.  In fact, the Chiefs have gone 17 straight games without throwing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.  Veteran Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will have an excellent game plan in place to stop Charles and the tight ends and make Alex Smith try and beat them.

All Kansas City games this season have been unbelievably low-scoring.  In fact, the Chiefs have combined with their opponents for 45 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games this year.  They have played in 10 straight games where 45 or fewer points were scored, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 47.5 points.

The Chiefs do play great defense, ranking 8th in the league in total defense at 331.8 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 18.1 points per game.  They also defense the pass very well, allowing just 199.2 passing yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense.  Again, the Steelers are not going to put up a ton of points on the Chiefs, but just enough to get the win and cover while keeping the total under the number.

The last two meetings between these teams have been ugly, defensive battles.  In 2012, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 16-13 (OT) at home for 29 combined points.  In 2011, the Steelers also snuck out  with a 13-9 road win for 22 combined points.  While I look for a little higher-scoring game this time around, it won't be enough to exceed 47 points.

Kansas City is 14-4 to the UNDER In its last 18 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 260 passing yards per game.  The Chiefs are 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game.  Pittsburgh is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Chiefs last 60 games on grass. 

Mike Tomlin is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 6-0 to the UNDER in home games in the last two weeks of the regular season as the coach of the Steelers.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +11

While everyone and their brother knows that Rex Ryan is likely out after this season, he has done a tremendous job of getting his players to show up every week. The perfect going away present for him would be to beat Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots one last time. Ryan has made no bones about the fact that he hates the Patriots and that they are their biggest rivals. The Jets always come to play against New England.

That was obviously the case in their first meeting of 2014. The Jets actually outplayed the Patriots as 9.5-point road underdogs and should have won, but came out on the losing end 25-27. They outgained the Patriots 423-323 for the game, or by 100 total yards. They did so behind a balanced attack offensively with 218 rushing yards and 205 passing yards. This has been a very closely contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 3 points or fewer. The home team has won four of the last five meetings as well.

New York can use its rushing attack to shorten the game and keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field, which has been a formula for success for Ryan in his time here against the Patriots. The Jets rank 2nd in the league in rushing this season at 147.1 yards per game. The Patriots haven’t exactly been that great against the run as they allow 4.1 yards per carry. New York, averaging 4.7 per carry, should have plenty of success on the ground in this one.

The Jets have been emphasizing the run even more here down the stretch with a ton of success.  They have averaged 186.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games overall.  They have also averaged 197.5 rushing yards per game in their last two meetings with the Patriots.  Prior to rushing for 218 yards in their first meeting this season, they had rushed for 177 yards in a 30-27 upset home win over the Patriots in their final meeting of 2013 as well.

The thing I really like about the Jets is that they continue to fight. While they have gone just 1-2 in their last three games, they had a chance to win all three. They only lost 13-16 at home to Miami as 6.5-point underdogs three weeks ago. They lost 24-30 in overtime to Minnesota as 4-point road underdogs two weeks ago. They were finally rewarded for their hard-nosed play with a 16-11 win at Tennessee last week. These players love Ryan, and they aren’t going to lay down for the Patriots, either.

The Patriots could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. This was already one of the biggest public teams in the NFL.  But after winning nine of their last 10 and covering the spread in five of their last six, the betting public is all over them even more right now. They were last week in a blowout win over the Dolphins, and they will be again this week against the Jets.

Oddsmakers realize this, forcing them to set the spread much higher than it should be. That’s indicated by the fact that the Patriots were only 9.5-point home favorites against the Jets the first time these teams played, and now they are 10-point road favorites. They should only be favored by roughly 3.5 points given the line of the first meeting when adjusting for home-field advantage.  I believe we are getting roughly 7 points of value on the Jets this week because of it.

Plays against road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. New England is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven December games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New England.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

20* Bowling Green/South Alabama Camellia Bowl BAILOUT on South Alabama -2.5

When deciding who to take in a bowl game, you certainly must consider what motivational factors will influence the game. I have no doubt that the South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) will be the more motivated team in this one. They are extremely happy to be here as this will be their first-ever bowl game.

Bowling Green (7-6, 5-3 MAC), meanwhile, got a worse bowl because it lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. If it would have won that game, it would be playing Conference USA Champion Marshall.  It is not nearly as excited to be here playing South Alabama when it could have played the 12-1 Thundering Herd instead.

You also have to consider the proximity of the schools to their bowl destination. Well, South Alabama is going to have a huge home-field advantage in this one considering it is being played in its home state in Montgomery, Alabama. So the Jaguars get check marks in both motivation and home-field advantage. Those two factors are enough to lay the 2.5 points with the Jaguars.

I’m not so sure that they aren’t the better team, too. They come into this game undervalued because they went 1-4 down the stretch after a 5-2 start. Well, a closer look at the five opponents they played tells the story. They played five other bowl eligible teams during this stretch in UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Carolina and Navy. They played three of those teams very tough, beating Texas State 24-20 at home, losing at Lafayette 9-19, and losing to Navy 40-42.

Bowling Green is playing its worst football of the season coming into this game. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost 20-27 at Toledo while getting outgained by 117 yards, it lost 24-41 at home to a bad Ball State team while getting outgained by 31 yards, and lost 17-51 to Northern Illinois while getting outgained by 265 yards. The Falcons just cannot be trusted to bring their best effort after that crushing loss to the Huskies in the MAC Title Game.

South Alabama has not been elite offensively this season, but it has rushed the ball fairly well. It averages 183 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It should find plenty of success moving the football on the ground against a Bowling Green defense that has been pitiful this year.

The Falcons give up 33.9 points and 499.2 yards per game against teams that only average 27.9 points and 415 yards per game. They have been atrocious against the run all season, allowing an average of 207 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. In their last three games, they gave up 325 rushing yards to Toledo, 199 to Ball State, and 334 to Northern Illinois.

There’s no question that the Jaguars have the better defense in this one, and that’s a big reason while I’ll side with them here. The Jaguars are giving up just 25.8 points, 390.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 30.5 points, 432 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Bowling Green only averages 29.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that give up 29.8 points per game and 5.8 per play, so its offense is nothing special.

South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge can be a tough matchup for any defense. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound senior is on the radar of many scouts with the prototypical build and athleticism that NFL teams covet. He completed only 51.9 percent of his passes in 10 games but threw 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final six.  He'll be looking to put on a show for the scouts in his final game.

The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Jaguars.  Take South Alabama in the Camellia Bowl Saturday.

15* Chargers/49ers NFL Saturday No-Brainer on San Diego +1

The San Diego Chargers are 8-6 right now and still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They are just one game back in the wild card race, so they still have a ton to play for. There’s no question that we’re going to see an inspired effort from the Chargers given the situation. The same cannot be said for the 49ers.

San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention with its 7-17 road loss to Seattle last week. It now has nothing to play for but pride. Off a big loss to their arch rivals last week, and with the realization that they won’t make the postseason, I look for the 49ers to come out very flat in this game and to not bring the kind of focus and effort it’s going to take to win.

The Chargers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late, which is the reason they have lost two in a row coming in. They lost to the Patriots 14-23 and to the Broncos 10-22, who are the top two seeds in the AFC right now, and arguably the two best teams in the NFL. They were competitive in both losses, and their defense played very well in them.

The 49ers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, especially in the second half of the season. They are scoring just 17.9 points per game and averaging 314.2 yards per game to rank 28th in scoring offense and 27th in total offense. The 49ers have scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last five games, averaging a pitiful 11.2 points per game during this stretch. Colin Kaepernick has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and he simply cannot be trusted.

Philip Rivers thrives late in the season, going 30-8 in his career in the month of December. Obviously, the losses to the Patriots and Broncos have hurt that record, but not too many teams are beating those two squads this year. I still believe Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he’s having another fine season. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,639 yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Knowing the competitor he is, Rivers will rally the troops this week and go get a much-needed win for their playoff hopes.

The 49ers also have a ton of injury issues right now, and with nothing to play for, they are more apt to rest them then have them play through injury.  The players listed as questionable are Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Steve Johnson, Glenn Dorsey, Chris Culliver, Anthony Davis, Tramaine Brock, Ahmad Brooks and Chris Borland.  All of these players are key contributors, and most are starters.

Also, Ray McDonald was released the team due to his legal issues.  It's fitting that the 49ers waited until they were out of the playoff chase to release McDonald.  It's a very telling sign that they are going to go the conservative route with all of these injured players and most likely give their younger guys a chance to play.  They don't care about wins and losses at this point.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 78-39 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 58-37 ATS in its last 95 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Take the Chargers Saturday.

20* Eagles/Redskins NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +9

This line is inflated due to the fact that the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Redskins are eliminated from postseason contention and have been for quite some time. While in some situations I would worry about the Redskins showing up, I never worry about it when they are playing their NFC East rivals. They always show up for the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants no matter the circumstance.

Washington is one of the best 3-11 teams in the history of the NFL. When you look at the numbers and not its record, you would think that this is a winning team or at least one around .500. That’s another reason why I believe the Redskins are undervalued here is because the numbers tell a completely different story than their record does.

Indeed, Washington ranks 9th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 19.7 yards per game this season. Of the top 16 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team due to their 6-8 record. The Redskins rank ahead of teams like the Packers, Cowboys, Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers, Chiefs and Bengals in yardage differential this year.

The Redskins rank 12th in the league in total offense at 358.6 yards per game. Yes, Colt McCoy is out with an injury, but it might be a blessing in disguise. Robert Griffin III has had some time to grasp the game from the sidelines, and I believe he’ll be a better quarterback because of it. He will look to finish the season on a strong note to prove that he is still the quarterback of the future in Washington. The defense ranks 10th in the league in giving up just 338.9 yards per game.

Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back ugly performances, and the curse of Mark Sanchez is finally starting to show through. It managed just 139 total yards in a 14-24 home loss to Seattle, and 294 total yards with four turnovers in a 27-38 loss to Dallas in its last two games. It was outgained by a whopping 301 total yards by the Seahawks, and by 70 yards by the Cowboys. The Eagles just have no business laying this many points with the way they are playing right now, especially on the road with Sanchez at quarterback.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings. Indeed, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less. Washington actually outplayed Philadelphia in the first meeting of 2014 and should have won on the road. It lost 34-37 as a 4-point dog despite outgaining the Eagles 511-379 for the game, or by 132 total yards. Kirk Cousins threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, and RGIII should pick up right where Cousins left off against this soft Philadelphia pass defense.

The Eagles are giving up 24.8 points per game and 371.3 yards per game this season to rank 26th in the league in total defense.  This defense is playing without arguably its two best players as well.  DeMeco Ryans has been out for an extended period of time and is the leader of the defense.  Now, top pass rusher Trent Cole is out with a fractured hand that he suffered last week against the Cowboys.  That's one less pass rusher that RGIII has to worry about, which will be huge in keeping him comfortable.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a team that wins 25% of fewer of its games playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Washington is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after 8-plus games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* Nevada/LA-Lafayette 2014 Bowl Opener on Louisiana-Lafayette +1

For starters, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns have a huge home-field advantage for this game as it will be played in their home state of Louisiana. In fact, these players and coaches are very familiar with this game as this will be the fourth consecutive time they have played in it. They are a perfect 3-0 in those three games. Obviously, it would be nice for these players to experience a different venue, but they haven’t looked at it that way. They will be fighting for their thousands of fans that show up to watch.

Lafayette (8-4) has really been playing some great football for quite some time now. It has gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. It went on the road and beat Texas State (34-10), LA-Monroe (34-17) and Troy (42-23) during this stretch, while also beating two other bowl teams in Arkansas State (55-40) and South Alabama (19-9) at home.

This is a veteran bunch that returned 17 starters from last year and was the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but Georgia Southern just didn’t lose a conference game all season, and the Rajin' Cajuns never had the chance to face the Eagles to settle it on the field. I just believe all of these senior starters aren’t going to allow this team to have a letdown even though this is the fourth consecutive time they’ll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.

It starts with senior quarterback Terrance Broadway, who leads an offense that is putting up 30.6 points and 417.9 yards per game this season. Broadway is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 646 yards and three scores. The one-two punch of Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD, 7.8/carry) and Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD, 4.6/carry) is tough to deal with.

I just have not been that impressed with Nevada (7-5, 4-4 MWC) this season. It went just 4-4 in a very weak Mountain West Conference and is not playing that great coming in. It has lost two of its last three games with its only win coming against 2-11 UNLV. It lost at home to Fresno State 20-40, getting outgained by 198 yards against a mediocre Bulldogs squad. It also lost at Air Force 38-45. Its seven wins this season have come against Southern Utah, Washington State, San Jose State, BYU, Hawaii, SDSU and UNLV.

Nevada’s defense is the reason it stands little chance in this game. It is giving up 28.2 points and 450.1 yards per game to rank 105th in the country in total defense. It hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. It is giving up 179 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. It is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their passes for 271 yards per game. Broadway and company will have a field day against this defense.

Nevada is a run-first team that averages 215 rushing yards per game compared to 197 passing yards. That actually makes this a great matchup for the Rajin’ Cajuns because they have been solid against the run, but not very good against the pass. They are allowing just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that average 168 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, they are an above-average defense against the run.

This game is going to come down to which team can stop the run because they both run it so frequently.  The edge obviously goes to the Rajin' Cajuns here as they give up just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, compared to the Wolf Pack, who give up 179 per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that average 167 per game and 4.3 per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. This trend goes right in line with my thinking. They haven’t been able to take advantage of poor passing defenses in the past, and they won’t in this one, either. Lafayette is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Nevada is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Mark Hudspeth is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 9-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 3-0 in bowl games as the coach of the Rajin' Cajuns.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

This is a matchup between two of the worst offenses in the NFL Thursday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South rivalry game.  I look for the defenses to dominate this contest, especially with how familiar these foes are having to play each other twice a season.

The first meeting was a defensive battle as well.  The Titans beat the Jaguars 16-14 at home for 30 combined points.  It was the second straight really low-scoring meeting in this series after they combined for 36 in their final showdown in 2013.  Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have seen 40 or fewer combined points.

Jacksonville ranks last in the league in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 31st in total offense (293.7 yards/game).  Tennessee ranks 29th in the league in scoring offense (16.5 points/game) and 29th in total offense (307.9 yards/game).  As you can see, both offenses have been among the worst in the NFL in 2014, and that will continue tonight.

Tennessee is down to its third-string quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst with both Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger out with injuries.  Look for a conservative game plan for Whitehurst, who is 1-2 as a start this year.  One of those starts came against Jacksonville in the first meeting.  He led the Titans to just 290 total yards and 16 points in the win, but did not commit a turnover.

The Jaguars have actually been playing some pretty good defense here of late. They held the Giants to 329 total yards, the Texans to just 304 total yards, and the Ravens to just 312 total yards in their last three games, respectively.  It took Baltimore forever to finally pull away for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last week because of how well the Jaguars' defense was playing.

The Titans came through with one of their best defensive efforts of the season last week.  They held the Jets to just 277 total yards in their 16-11 home loss.  Their defense certainly has the Jaguars figured out as they have held them to a combined 30 points (15.0 points/game) in their last two meetings.

Jacksonville is 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  The Jaguars are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine home games vs. poor defensive teams that give up 350 or more yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.  These five trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Saints/Bears ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on New Orleans -3

These teams share identical 5-8 records. However, there is one distinct difference, and it’s the reason that I am taking the Saints Monday night. The Saints are tied for first place in the NFC South and are still fighting to make the playoffs. The Bears have already been eliminated from the playoffs as they trail the final two wild card spots by four games with only three to play. So, the Saints will be the more motivated team in this one, and I’ll side with them as a result.

Couple that motivation with the fact that the Saints are the better team statistically despite their identical 5-8 records, and it’s plenty of reason to lay the three points with the road favorite this week. Indeed, the Saints rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 22.3 yards per game on the season. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and the Redskins, who are both underrated teams.

Chicago is every bit as bad as its 5-8 record would indicate. It ranks 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 35.0 yards per game this season. It has really been beat up defensively. It allows a league-worst 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 28th in the NFL in total defense at 377.8 yards per game.

That’s bad news for the Bears considering they will be up against one of the league’s best offenses this week. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense, averaging 421.0 yards per game. The Bears have allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They gave up 51 to New England, 55 to Green Bay, 34 to Detroit, and 41 to Dallas. The only exceptions were games against terrible offenses in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

The Bears have been decent offensively this year as they rank 18th at 342.8 yards per game. However, they just lost their best player on offense in Brandon Marshall to a season-ending injury, and Jay Cutler and company will suffer going forward as a result. Marshall has 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is simply irreplaceable. The Saints will be able to key in on stopping Alshon Jeffery this week instead of having to try to contain both Marshall and Jeffery, which will be a much easier task.

New Orleans has actually been playing better on the road than at home here of late. It has gone 2-0 in its last two road games with wins at Carolina (28-10) and at Pittsburgh (35-32). Even in its road game prior to those two wins, it only lost at Detroit 23-24 after blowing a 23-10 lead over the final four minutes of the game. These last three road games are proof that you can put to rest the notion that the Saints can only win at home.

Drew Brees has led the Saints to wins in each of the last two meetings with the Bears.  They won 30-13 at home in 2011 and 26-18 on the road last year over Chicago.  Brees has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 558 yards with five touchdowns without an interception in those two games, and figures to have another monster performance on Monday Night Football.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC opponents. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss. The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 December games.

Chicago is 0-8 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +10

This line is clearly an overreaction for a couple of different reasons. The first being the results last week. The Seahawks earned an impressive 24-14 road win at Philadelphia, while the 49ers lost at Oakland 13-24 despite being an 8-point favorite in that game. So, the public perception is high on the Seahawks right now, while it’s very low on the 49ers. That has forced the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be knowing that the betting public is going to be quick to back the Seahawks.

The other reason for this big spread is that the 49ers just lost to the Seahawks 19-3 at home two weeks ago. Obviously, that was not a good showing for the 49ers, but they are going to be playing desperate football Sunday because they know they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the 49ers will be out for blood in this game.

One thing that jumps out to me is the line on this game compared to the one in San Francisco.  The 49ers were 1-point favorites at home over the Seahawks, so when you factor in three points for home-field advantage, they should only be 5-point underdogs at Seattle in the rematch.  With this line being 10 instead, we are getting roughly 5 extra points of value on the 49ers.  That says it all right there.

Prior to that 19-3 win by the Seahawks, the previous two meetings in this series were decided by a combined eight points. The 49ers won 19-17 at home in 2013, and they also hung tough in a 17-23 road loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. They actually led that game most of the way before blowing it in the fourth quarter, so they have proven they can hang with the Seahawks in Seattle. They hold a 5-4 edge over the Seahawks in their last nine meetings.

With a defense as good as the one the 49ers feature, they have a chance to be competitive in every game they play. They rank 3rd in the league in total defense, giving up just 308.5 yards per game on the season. Yes, their offense has not been up to par, but their defense is the reason why they have played in so many close games this year. Indeed, 10 of the 49ers’ 13 games this year have been decided by 11 points or less. They have only lost twice by more than 11 points all season.

The 49ers also have the formula for stopping the Seahawks.  First and foremost, you must slow down Marshawn Lynch and the rushing attack.  Well, the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 97.2 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  They held the Raiders to just 85 rushing yards on 31 carries last week and should be able to build off of that performance.

This is actually a letdown spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off their huge road win over the Eagles last week, and they have Arizona on deck next week with first place in the NFC West likely on the line. They also already beat the 49ers by 16, so they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.

They won’t be as emotionally jacked up for this game as they were the first time they played the 49ers, or as much as they were against the Eagles, and as much as they will be next week against the Cardinals. It’s going to take 100% focus for the Seahawks to win this game by more than 10 points, and even that may not be enough against a 49ers team that will be out for revenge.  The Seahawks are almost overconfident right now, which will work against them.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) – revenging a loss against opponent, off a road loss are 75-35 (67.6%) ATS over the past 10 seasons.

San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a poor passing defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or better. The 49ers are 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Browns PK

I don’t think the switch to Johnny Manziel at quarterback will have a huge impact on this game, but it was time to make the move nonetheless. Brian Hoyer had led just one touchdown drive in his last 29 series. Manziel will give the offense a spark this week, and the Browns have the element of surprise with him at quarterback over Hoyer. While I’m not sure this will be the right move for the team long-term, for one week I do believe it is the right move and will pan out.

This Cleveland offense will continue to perform at about a league-average level. It ranks 13th in the NFL in total offense at 353.8 yards per game. But the reason I’m siding with the Browns in this one is more due to their defense than anything. They are giving up a very respectable 20.8 points per game this season and will shut down this Cincinnati offense just as they did the last time these teams met up.

Cleveland (7-6) throttled Cincinnati 24-3 on the road back on November 6th. This game was every bit the blowout as the final score would indicate. The Browns outgained the Bengals 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Andy Dalton went just 10 of 33 for 86 yards with three interceptions in the worst performance of his career. He even had a healthy A.J. Green in that game, so there was no excuse. Green finished with three receptions for 23 yards.

That was a rare win for the road team in this series, too. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series over the past five-plus seasons. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Browns have won three of their last four home meetings with the Bengals with the last two coming via blowout. They won 17-6 at home last year and 34-24 at home in 2012. They have held the Bengals to 266 total yards or less in each of their last three meetings as this defense simply has Dalton and company figured out.

Another big reason why I’m backing the Browns in this one is because the Bengals are arguably the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, they’re in first place in the AFC North with an 8-4-1 record, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record would indicate. Most teams would have a losing record with the numbers they have put up.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 29.3 yards per game this season. Eight of the 10 teams ranked 23rd or worse in yardage differential have losing records this season, with only the Bengals and Cardinals as the exceptions. Arizona is also an overrated team.

The biggest culprit for this poor performance in yardage differential is the defense.  The Bengals are surrendering 22.2 points and 377.5 yards per game to rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense.  They gave up 42 points and 543 total yards in a 21-point loss to the Steelers last week.  With a stop unit like that, the Bengals have no staying power and will be bumped from the AFC North lead by season's end.  It starts this week against a desperate Browns team fighting for their playoff lives.

Cleveland is 4-3 at home this season with two of its three losses coming by a combined three points to Baltimore (24-26) and Indianapolis (24-25).  That's how close this is to being a 6-1 team at home, so obviously, the Browns have played great at home this year.  They are limiting opponents to just 19.3 points per game at home in 2014.

Cincinnati is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. The Bengals are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games off a loss by 21 or more points. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Cincinnati.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Houston Texans +7

I really like the toughness that the Houston Texans (7-6) have shown over their last four games to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They have won three of their last four and the three victories haven’t even been close. They went on the road and beat both Cleveland (23-7) and Jacksonville (27-13), while also topping Tennessee (45-21) at home. Their lone loss came to Cincinnati (13-22) in a game where it was announced after that Ryan Mallett was playing with a torn pectoral muscle.

This Houston defense has really come alive during this stretch. It has given up an average of just 15.8 points per game in its last four games as this is one of the most underrated stop units in the league. The offense has really received a boost from the return of Arian Foster from a two-game absence. He returned the last two weeks, and to no surprise, the Texans have scored an average of 36.0 points per game in their last two.

Foster is having a huge year despite missing three games due to injury. He has rushed for 1,028 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry, while also catching 33 balls for 276 yards and four scores. This offense goes as he goes. The Texans are 6-4 in games that Foster has started this year. They rushed for 173 yards on the Jaguars last week and currently sit at 4th in the league in rushing at 137.1 yards per game.

The Colts have been extremely vulnerable defensively in 2014. They rank 18th in the league in total defense, allowing 23.6 points and 355.8 yards per game on the season. That’s not the sign of a team with staying power when it comes to the playoffs. They have not been very good against the run as they allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry.

Foster rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts in their 28-33 home loss to Indianapolis back on October 9th. The Texans had their chances to win that game, but they committed two costly fumbles on their final two drives. Both drives ended in turnovers, and both were as they were trying to take the lead with a game-winning touchdown late. I believe they’ll be within a touchdown late in this one with a chance to win as well.

Houston has played its best football on the road this season.  It is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in seven road games.  It is scoring 23.9 points per game and giving up just 18.6 points per game on the road.  It is actually outscoring teams by an average of 5.3 points per game away from home.  That really just shows how tough the Texans are mentally to be able to go on the road in this league and play that well.

Adding extra motivation for the Texans is that they have not won in Indianapolis in 12 all-time meetings.  "We're well aware that we have not won there," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. If that's not motivation, then I don't know what is.  Simply put, the Texans are going to be playing more inspired football this week than they have shown all season.

Turnovers could swing in the the Texans' favor in this one as well.  The Colts turned the ball over four times against the Browns last week in a fortunate 25-24 road win.  They have lost seven of 13 fumbles and had three passes picked off over the last three weeks.  They rely so much on Andrew Luck that their offense has become rather predictable, and opposing teams have been able to get pressure on him.  Houston has one of the best front fours in the league and will get plenty of pressure with J.J. Watt and company.

Plays on any team (HOUSTON) – after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 72-47 (60.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +5.5

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) have been fighting hard to make the playoffs here in recent weeks, and they have been playing their best football of the season as a result. They have won two of their last three games while going a perfect 3-0 against the spread. Their two wins came via the blowout as they dominated the Jets 38-3 on a neutral field. They also topped the Browns 26-10 at home. They outscored those two teams a ridiculous 64-13.

However, I was just as impressed with the Bills’ only loss during this stretch. They went into Denver last week and gave the Broncos a run for their money in a 17-24 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs. They actually outplayed the Broncos when you look at the box score. They outgained them 415-306 for the game, or by 109 total yards. They held Peyton Manning to just 14 of 20 passing for 173 yards and two interceptions without a touchdown pass. It was the first time in over 50 games that Manning failed to throw a TD pass.

A big reason I was on the Bills last week was because of their passing defense. Well, after shutting down Manning, they certainly showed that they can stop anyone’s passing game. That’s why you have to like their chances of slowing down Green Bay and its passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers, who is having an MVP-type season. I look for this Bills’ defense to be the reason that they not only stay within five points, but also the reason that they have a chance to win this game outright.

Buffalo ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game while ranking 5th in total defense at 311.9 yards per game. The Bills have been elite against the pass, ranking 5th in the NFL at 212.8 yards per game allowed. The Packers, on the other hand, have been terrible defensively this season. They are giving up 23.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the league in total defense (374.4 yards/game).

Green Bay is 7-0 at home but just 3-3 on the road. It is actually getting outscored by 4.3 points per game away from home this season. It has only one win on the road by more than three points this year, and that was a 38-17 win at Chicago in a game that was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Packers were actually outgained by 138 yards by the Bears in that contest.

The Packers have been even worse defensively on the road. They are giving up 26.8 points and 399.8 yards per game away from home. Their offense has been held in check in road games, too, averaging just 343.0 yards per game. So, they are getting outgained by 56.8 yards per game away from home this year.

This is also a tough spot for the Packers. They are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football against the Falcons last week. Their defense has to be tired, too, after surrendering 37 points and 465 total yards to the Falcons. Their stop unit spent most of the second half on the field and looked to be worn down as the Falcons scored 30 points after intermission.

Kyle Orton should have a big game against this Green Bay defense. Orton has stabilized the offense, going 5-4 as a starter this season. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,355 yards with 14 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the year. He threw for a season-high 355 yards against a very good Broncos defense last week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 89-47 (65.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. The home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series dating back to 1994.  Green Bay has never won in Buffalo in five trips there.  Take the Bills Sunday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots are on a mission to get that No. 1 seed in the AFC because they know their chances of reaching the Super Bowl are greatly increased if the AFC runs through Foxborough. They even went out to San Diego as a team for the entire week after their loss to the Packers in Week 13 and made it a business trip. That experience with an entire week together will only grow the bond between these players. It was amazing to see the emotion the Patriots showed once they had beaten the Chargers 23-14; it was almost like they had just won the Super Bowl.

New England (10-3) has been playing as well as anyone for a couple months now. It has won eight of its last nine games overall with six of those wins coming by 15 points or more. That includes wins over the likes of Cincinnati (43-17) and Denver (42-20) at home, as well as road wins over Indianapolis (42-20) and Buffalo (37-22). The Patriots are scoring 35.4 points per game and allowing just 19.7 points per game in their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.7 points per game during this stretch.

Miami has lost three of its last five games and has not played well at all over this span. It has been outgained in four of those five games, including by 123 yards in loss to Detroit, by 137 yards in a loss to Denver, and by 198 yards in a 15-point loss to Baltimore last week. It was even outgained by the Jets by 35 yards and was lucky to escape with a 16-13 road win in that contest thanks to a last-minute touchdown.

New England just held a high-powered San Diego offense to only 14 points and 216 total yards. That’s bad news for a Miami offense that has really hit the skids in recent weeks. The Dolphins have been held to 16 or fewer points in three of their last five games. They only managed 249 total yards against Baltimore, 291 total yards against New York, 228 total yards against Detroit, and 313 total yards against Denver in four of their last five games.

Tom Brady has a 45-7 career record in the month of December, which is the best of any quarterback to ever play the game. New England is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points per game this year. It is putting up 35.7 points and 408.2 total yards at Gillette Stadium, while allowing just 17.3 points per game there. These two trends are simply too hard to ignore and would be foolish to bet against.

Plus, the Patriots want revenge on the Dolphins, so they certainly will not be looking past them.  The Patriots are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  In their last 10 games in same-season revenge situations, they are 9-0-1 ATS while covering the spread by an average of 10.0 points per game.

The Dolphins are really hurting in the secondary right now, which could allow Brady to have a monster game against them. They just lost arguably their best player on D in safety Louis Delmas to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Jamar Taylor have been out since Week 11 and Week 13, respectively, and both are questionable to return this week. The loss of Delmas is huge, and if Finnegan and Taylor both don’t play, it would just be an added bonus.

While Brady has been tearing it up through the air, you might find that the Patriots dominate this game on the ground just as much.  That's because the Dolphins have been shredded up front defensively in recent weeks.  In their last three games, they allowed 201 rushing yards to the Broncos, 277 to the Jets, and 183 to the Ravens for an average of 220.3 rushing yards per game.

The Patriots are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  New England is 6-0 ATS in home games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons, winning in these spots by 16.6 points per game. New England is 7-0 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Add the 9-0 ATS trend on same-season revenge, and we have a perfect 22-0 system backing New England here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between St. Louis and Arizona.  These are two of the best defenses in the NFL up against two of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll gladly side with the UNDER 41 points in this NFC West rivalry game.

St. Louis has shut out back-to-back opponents.  It is playing as well defensively as any team in the NFL right now.  It held Oakland to 244 total yards and Washington to 206 total yards.  Since Chris Long returned from injury, this stop unit has taken its game to the next level.

One of the most shocking facts about how well this defense is playing is that it has not allowed an opponent to run a play inside its own 20-yard line in three of its past four games. The Rams have now gone 128 minutes and 20 seconds without allowing an opponent to score. Since Week 7, the Rams have 34 sacks, which is the most in the league over that period of time.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game.  It has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  It has been relying on its defense all season, and that stop unit is the only reason it has a 10-3 record right now.  It's certainly not because of the offense.

Arizona ranks 23rd in the league in total offense at 325.3 yards per game.  It has been even worse with Drew Stanton at quarterback here of late.  The Cardinals have been held to 18 or fewer points in each of their last four games.  They are averaging a mere 13.0 points per game in their last four.

St. Louis hasn't been any better offensively.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense, averaging only 317.2 yards per game this season.  Yes, the Rams have been putting up some decent scoring numbers here of late, but that has been mostly due to their defense creating easy opportunities.  Arizona only averages 1.0 turnovers per game and won't be giving up easy opportunities.

Yes, Arizona and St. Louis combined for 45 points in their first meeting in a 31-14 Cardinals victory at home.  However, the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns over the last 5 minutes to push the final combined score over the number.  The Rams managed just 244 total yards while the Cardinals had 335.  I'll take my chances that there won't be two defensive touchdowns in the rematch.

Arizona is 12-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 6-0 to the UNDER in December games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Rams last 27 December games dating back further.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +13

The Atlanta Falcons have been playing their best football of the season of late. They have won three of their last four games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to Cleveland (24-26). They have even won their last two road games with victories over the Bucs (27-17) and Panthers (19-17). They also beat the NFC West-leading Cardinals 29-18 at home last week in an effort that shows they can play with anyone.

The Falcons racked up a whopping 500 total yards on a very good Arizona defense last week. They also limited the Cardinals to just 18 points and 329 total yards. They have held three of their last four opponents to 18 points or fewer, so the defense is improving. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 41 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. Steven Jackson had one of his best games as a Falcon, rushing for 101 yards on just 18 carries.

Green Bay is in a massive letdown spot here. It played in arguably the biggest game in the NFL in Week 13 against the Patriots, and it came away with a 26-21 home victory. It’s simply going to be hard for them to bring the same kind of emotion to this game. It will need to play almost a perfect game to put the Falcons away by two touchdowns or more, which is what it would take to cover this ridiculous 13-point spread. The Packers are simply a public team that the public backs no matter what, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Atlanta is fully capable of keeping up with Green Bay in a shootout. It is putting up 24.2 points and 374.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total offense. It is only slightly behind the Packers, who rank 8th in total offense at 377.9 yards per game. The Packers are going to surrender points in this one because their defense simply isn’t that good. They rank 25th in the league in total defense, allowing an average of 366.8 yards per game.

Obviously, Atlanta is just 5-7 on the season. However, it is in a tie for first place in the NFC South, so it has everything to play for at this point in the season. The Falcons are getting treated like a 5-7 team with this 13-point spread, too. They aren’t getting treated like the team they are right now, which is one that has won three of their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined three points to playoff contenders in Detroit (21-22) and Cleveland (24-26).

The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. They are winning by an average of 7.1 points per game in this spot. The Packers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* Seahawks/Eagles NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +1

Mark Sanchez has actually played pretty well in his four starts with the Eagles, leading them to a 3-1 record. However, it has mostly come against a soft slate of defenses. The Panthers rank 17th in total defense, the Packers rank 25th, the Titans rank 30th, and the Cowboys rank 23rd. So, his four starts have come against four teams that rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in total defense.

Now, Sanchez will be up against the best defense in the NFL. Indeed, the Seahawks rank 1st in the league in total defense, allowing 285.8 yards per game. They are also 3rd against the pass (199.4 yards/game) and 5th against the run (86.3 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses. I look for Sanchez to really struggle in this one and to make some mistakes that will cost his team the game.

Seattle is surging right now, having won five of its last six games overall. It is now just one game behind Arizona for first place in the NFC West, and I fully expect it to win the division by season’s end with a strong finish. The Seahawks have allowed three points each in back-to-back wins over Arizona (19-3) and San Francisco (19-3) by the same margins. Both the Cardinals and 49ers have beaten the Eagles this year to hand them two of their three losses.

The Seahawks also allowing an average of 184.0 yards per game in their wins over the Cardinals and 49ers.  They have been absolutely dominant against the run in recent weeks.  They have held four of their last five opponents to under 65 rushing yards, and they've forced 11 turnovers in their last six.  Both Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor recently returned from injury to give the D a boost.  They should be able to shut down LeSean McCoy and the Eagles' running game.  Also, opposing quarterbacks have a 65.0  rating in their last six games, with only Eli Manning throwing for more than 200 yards.

Sanchez was 9 of 22 for 124 yards in his only matchup against the Seahawks and Pete Carroll, his former college coach.  Sanchez lost that game 28-7 as a member of the Jets back in 2012.  Carroll will have an advantage here because he coached against Chip Kelly in college and knows the system that Kelly likes to run.  Seattle has also won its last three meetings with the Eagles in Philadelphia.

While the Eagles have a very good offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are giving up 23.7 points and 366.2 yards per game this season to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Russell Wilson and company should have their way with this stop unit Sunday afternoon. Wilson leads a solid Seattle offense that is putting up 24.8 points and 361.0 yards per game this season. This unit is better than it gets credit for, and they don't make mistakes as Wilson has not thrown an interception in any of his last three games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage greater than 75% in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are a sensational 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Seattle is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been a very good bet over time. The Buccaneers represent one of my favorite double-digit dogs this week because there are a plethora of them. They have been much better than their 2-10 record would indicate this season as they have rarely been blown out. I believe they will stay within double-digits of the Lions Sunday afternoon.

Eight of the Buccaneers’ 10 losses this season have come by 10 points or less. So, they have been in every game they have played aside from the blowout losses to the Ravens and Falcons. They are certainly better than a 2-10 team, but they just haven’t been rewarded in the win column. This team continues to put their hardhats on and come to play every Sunday, and I see no reason that will be any different in this game.

I really like what I’ve seen from the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They have actually outgained four of their last five opponents. They outgained Cleveland by 35 yards in a 17-22 loss, Atlanta by 51 yards in a 17-27 loss, Washington by 7 yards in a 27-7 win, and Chicago by 163 yards in a 13-21 loss. The only exception was last week as they were outgained by just 25 yards by the Bengals in a 13-14 home loss.

They had every chance to win that game, right down until the final few snaps when they were looking to get within field goal range for a game-winner.  It was another tremendous performance for the defense, which has been playing lights-out for weeks.  Indeed, the Bucs have allow an average of 18.3 points and 299.7 yards per game over their last six contests.

Detroit comes into this game overvalued off a blowout win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. I still consider the Lions to be one of the better teams in the league, but asking them to win by more than 10 points to cover this spread is asking too much. The betting public must be quick to overlook the two ugly losses by the Lions prior to that win over the Bears. They were outgained by 90 yards in a 6-14 road loss to Arizona, and by 104 yards in a 9-34 loss at New England.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between Detroit and Tampa Bay. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 11 meetings in this series. The Buccaneers went into Detroit and came away with a 24-21 road victory last year. This has also been a very closely-contested series. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Bucs have won five of their last six road meetings with the Lions.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 81-37 (68.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Bucs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games coming in. The Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +6

Neither of these teams really have much to play for at this point in the season. However, both showed that they will continue to fight as the Vikings beat the Panthers last week, while the Jets had the Dolphins dead in the water before losing on a last-second field goal. So, I do expect both teams to show up in this game as well despite the circumstances. From a value standpoint, it’s clear that the Jets are the right side in this one.

Minnesota has no business being this heavily-favored against a team that is pretty much its equal in New York. The reason the Vikings are laying 6 points is because the public perception on them is high right now after their 31-13 win over the Panthers. Well, that game was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Vikings simply benefited from blocking two punts and returning both of them for touchdowns.

You can’t expect to get two special teams touchdowns every week, and that’s what it took for the Vikings to blow out the hapless Panthers last week. The Panthers have lost six straight games and are a complete mess right now. The Vikings were even outgained by 138 yards by the Panthers last week. They were outgained by 225 yards in a 13-21 loss to Chicago two weeks ago as well. The numbers show that this team simply isn’t that good.

Minnesota ranks a woeful 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 42.1 yards per game. New York actually ranks a respectable 18th in yardage differential, only getting outgained by 10.5 yards per game.  The Jets are only one of three teams (Redskins, Saints) who rank in the top 18 in yardage differential who currently have losing records.  They are obviously better than their record would indicate, just like the Saints and Redskins.

These numbers tell me that the Jets are actually the better team and should probably be favored on a neutral field. The Vikings should maybe be a slight favorite at home, but certainly not a favorite of 6 points. That 6 points could easily come into play here, and thus the Jets are the value play and the smart bet.

I like the fight I saw from the Jets last week as they simply manhandled the Dolphins at the line of scrimmage. They rushed for 277 yards on 49 carries and held the Dolphins to just 74 yards on 18 carries. They actually outgained the Dolphins by 35 yards in the game and probably should have won. They clearly have not quit fighting for head coach Rex Ryan.

After rushing for 277 yards on the Dolphins, they should be able to find a ton of success on the ground against the Vikings again this week. That’s because Minnesota has allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games. It has given up an average of 148.3 rushing yards per game during this stretch, including 157.0 per game in its last three.

The Jets rank a solid 7th in the league in total defense, only giving up 322.0 yards per game. The Vikings are going to struggle to move the football and put up points without getting aided by fluke plays in special teams or on defense. That’s because they rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense, averaging a mere 300.8 yards per game. They are only averaging 253.7 yards per game in their last three contests, so Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been the savior that many thought he’d be.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 14 points.  New York is 8-1 in nine all-time meetings with Minnesota.  It has won 7 straight meetings.  Roll with the Jets Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 47

These division rivalry games always tend to be lower-scoring because teams know each other so well having played each other twice a season.  That becomes even more the case later in the year after teams have so much film on their opponents to study.  That extra film work certainly benefits the defenses a lot more than the offenses at this point in the season.  Both teams know each others' personnel, playing style and offensive systems.

Unders in division matchups have gone 575-521 (52.3%) since 2003.  To compare, unders in non-division matchups have gone 883-976 (47.5%) during that same span.  These two stats just show that this theory has some real proof, but a closer look at late-season games with higher totals in divisional matchups is where the real money is made.

Unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39 and below in December or later are only 48-59 (44.9%) since 2003.  However, unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39.5 and above in December or later are 161-111 (59.2%) since 2003.  That is some time-tested evidence that I believe carries some real weight here.

This total between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh has been set at 47, which is an enormous number.  Although the sample size is very small, the under in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati games has a record of 5-2 since 2003 when they meet after the start of December, compared to 7-8 in all other meetings during that same span.

I believe this number has been inflated due to Pittsburgh's 35-32 shootout with New Orleans last week.  Obviously, the Saints have a horrible defense but one of the best offenses in the league.  So, a high-scoring game was likely.  Cincinnati has a much worse offense but a better defense than New Orleans.

The Steelers rank 12th in the NFL in total defense, while the Bengals rank 10th in the league in scoring defense.  I believe these are two of the better stop units in the league.  While the Steelers are improved offensively this season, the Bengals are just 18th in the league in total offense.

However, Pittsburgh has done most of its offensive damage at home.  It has been a completely different story on the road.  The Steelers are only averaging 18.3 points per game away from home this season.  They managed just 10 points in Cleveland, 13 points at the New York Jets, 17 points at Jacksonville, and 6 points at Baltimore.

Cincinnati has been playing in some real low-scoring games of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four games overall.  It has combined with each of its last four opponents for 37 or fewer points, and an average of 31.5 points per game.  That includes 37 combined points at New Orleans on November 16th as the Bengals limited the Saints to just 10 points in a 27-10 win.

Pittsburgh & Cincinnati have combined for 42 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  The only exception was a 30-20 win by the Steelers last year at home in a fluke high-scoring game.  The Bengals only had 279 yards, while the Steelers only had 290 yards in that game.  They have combined for an average of 36.7 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is 10.3 points per game less than this posted total of 47.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 79-37 (68.1%) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 7-0 to the UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more possession minutes per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons.

The Bengals are 7-0 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bengals last six games in the second half of the season vs. poor defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more.  These last four trends combined for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +3

This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. Whenever one team is coming off a blowout victory, while another team is coming off a blowout loss, there’s usually a ton of value to be had in backing the team coming off the blowout loss, and fading the one coming off the blowout win. I believe that’s precisely the case in this matchup as the Rams should not be 3-point road favorites over the Redskins in this one.

Washington is probably the most underrated team in the NFL at this point of the season due to its 3-9 record. This team has not quit as it keeps fighting. It only lost 13-17 at San Francisco two weeks ago, and it had its chances against Indianapolis last week. It got to within four points in the second half, but could not hang on as the Colts ran away with it late for a 49-27 victory.

That loss to the Colts wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Redskins were only outgained by 62 yards for the game and really should have only lost by single-digits. The difference was that the Colts scored touchdowns when they got into the red zone, not once having to settle for a field goal. The Redskins, on the other hand, had to settle for too many field goals and turned the ball over on downs too many times.

Conversely, the Rams’ 52-0 win over the Raiders wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. Usually, to win by that many points, you would have to dominate the box score and likely outgain a team by roughly 300 yards. That wasn’t the case at all as the Rams only outgained the Raiders by 104 yards for the game. St. Louis only racked up 348 total yards in the win. The difference was that the Raiders committed five turnovers and gave the Rams too many easy scoring opportunities.

The numbers indicate that the Redskins are the better team, period. The Redskins rank 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 26.2 yards per game. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, a whopping 15 of them have winning records on the season. That’s the kind of elite company the the Redskins are in this year, and their record should be much better than it is.

To compare, St. Louis ranks a woeful 27th in yardage differential. It is getting outgained by 40.3 yards per game, and it has been outgained by at least 60 years in seven of its last eight games overall.  The Rams are at least as bad as their 5-7 record would indicate, and probably worse. They have no business laying a field goal on the road this week given these numbers. But, the only reason they are is because the public perception on them is at an all-time high right now. It’s not warranted.

Washington is a much better team with Colt McCoy under center. He is completing a sensational 75.3 percent of his passes for 819 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception this year.

The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. St. Louis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 vs. NFC East opponents.  The Rams haven't won two games in a row all season as they have followed up every win with a loss.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

15* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -4

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0) certainly created expectations from oddsmakers this season that they could not live up to after winning the BCS Championship last year. Despite going a perfect 12-0 straight up, they have gone a woeful 3-9 against the spread this season. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to fade them because of it. This is one of the lowest spreads we’ve had an opportunity to back Florida State at as a result. That’s why I believe there is value in backing the Seminoles as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Tech (10-2), meanwhile, comes into this game way overvalued due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes a win against Georgia in overtime last week in a game that I backed the Yellow Jackets as 12-point underdogs. That was a game where the Bulldogs were deflated after Missouri had won on Friday to punch its ticket into the SEC Championship, which prevented Georgia from playing in it. I simply believe the Yellow Jackets caught Georgia at the right time, and now they are getting too much respect from the books after that win.

All the Seminoles do is win. They extended their winning streak to 28 games with their 24-19 victory over Florida last week. I realize that they have six victories by 6 points or less this season, and that’s a big reason why I have faded them with regularity up to this point when they have been a big favorite. However, I have backed them a couple of their small spreads, and they have come through for me with a 42-31 win at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 30-26 win at Miami as a 2-point favorite. Basically, all they have to do is win this game and they’ll cover considering this is only a 4-point spread and it likely won't come into play.

What I like about this play as well is that Florida State has played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch and is more battle-tested. It has faced six straight tough games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida. Georgia Tech’s last six games have come against UNC, Pitt, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Georgia. It also faced Clemson without star QB Deshaun Watson, while FSU had to play Clemson with Watson and without Jameis Winston.

This is a very good matchup for the Seminoles because their strength defensively is stopping the run. They are giving up a respectable 146 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. Georgia Tech is a primary running team in the triple-option. Although it is an improved passing team this season, any threat it had of moving the football through the air ended against Georgia.

That’s because top receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a knee injury in the loss to Georgia and is doubtful to play Saturday. This is a bigger loss than I believe the oddsmakers are factoring in. Smelter leads the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (715) and receiving touchdowns (7). To compare, second place in all three categories is Darren Waller (16 receptions, 255 yards, 4 TD). That just shows you how important Smelter is to the offense.

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t exactly been dominant, either. It is giving up 24.1 points, 388.7 yards per game, and 6.1 yards per play. That is rather mediocre when you consider its opponents average 405 yards per game and 5.8 per play against all teams they have faced this year. The Yellow Jackets have simply won the time of possession this year, which has kept their suspect defense off the field for the majority of games.

That won’t happen against this high-powered FSU offense that averages 34.6 points and 430.3 yards per game on the year. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that opposing defenses that they’ve faced only giving up 25.3 points and 357 yards per game. The Seminoles are also averaging 6.3 yards per play against teams that give up only 5.2 yards per play.  This is still an elite offense under Winston.

Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 37-20 ATS in their last 57 games following two more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Florida State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -14.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) are the best team in college football, period. They have been the most impressive team based on the schedule that they have played and the numbers that they have put up this season. Their only loss came at Ole Miss by a final of 17-23 back when the Rebels were healthy and one of the best teams in the country. After beating a tough Auburn team 55-44 last week, this game against Missouri will feel like a cake walk.

Alabama has arguably its best offense in school history. It is putting up 36.7 points and 487.1 yards per game on the season. Blake Sims has had a tremendous year at quarterback, and bounced back nicely from a slow start against Auburn last week to lead them back from a double-digit second half deficit. Sims is completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 275 yards and six scores.

While many consider the Crimson Tide to be down defensively this year, that simply has not been the case. They are giving up just 16.9 points and 312.0 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 29.5 points and 415 yards per game. They are holding their opponents to roughly 13 points and 103 yards per game less than their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense, and one that will shut down this suspect Missouri offense.

The Tigers, in my opinion, are the single-most overrated team in the entire country. There is no way they should be 10-2 right now when you consider they are only outgaining teams by an average of 34.4 yards per game.   To compare, Alabama outgains the opposition by 175.1 yards per game.  That's the sign of an elite team and one deserving of being in the SEC Championship.

The Tigers have simply been an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of opponent’s mistakes all year, but their luck runs out this week against the best team they have faced all season.  The second-best team they have played was easily Georgia, and they lost 34-0 to the Bulldogs at home on October 11th.

Missouri simply does not have the firepower offensively to do anything against this Alabama defense, which won’t allow it to keep up on the scoreboard. It ranks just 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 365.9 yards per game on the season. Maty Mauk is just an average quarterback who is completing 53.5 percent of his passes on the season. He will have one of the worst games of his career against this Alabama defense.

I look for this game to play out similarly to the 42-10 beat down the Crimson Tide put on the Tigers in their most recent meeting in 2012. They racked up 533 yards of offense while limiting the Tigers to just 129 total yards in the win. They outgained the Tigers by a whopping 404 total yards for the game. That contest was even played in Missouri, and this one will be in the Georgia Dome, where the Crimson Tide are used to being at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. Last year, Auburn beat Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship while outgaining the Tigers 677-534 for the game. This Alabama team is better than that Auburn team of a year ago, while this Missouri team isn’t as good as last year’s Tigers squad.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +21

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight will not play Saturday after missing the past two games with a head injury. He was knocked out of a 14-48 home loss to Baylor on November 8th and hasn’t returned since. The Sooners haven’t needed him in their last two games against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech (42-30 win) and Kansas (44-7 win), but they aren’t about to blow out Oklahoma State without Knight.

Backup Cody Thomas has been terrible in Knight’s place. He went 10-of-20 for 133 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against Texas Tech, and 3-of-13 for 39 yards without a touchdown or an interception against Kansas. The Sooners were able to get away with being one-dimensional against the Red Raiders and Jayhawks, but that won’t be the case against the Cowboys.  Thomas is completing just 41% of his passes on the season.

Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness this season has been its quarterback play. That’s why head coach Mike Gundy decided to make a switch prior to the Baylor game a couple weeks ago. Mason Rudolph played very well in a hostile atmosphere in Waco, throwing for 281 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 28-49 road loss as a 33-point underdog. Rudolph will get the start again Saturday, and I believe this offense will continue to perform better with him under center.  If they can stay within 21 points of Baylor on the road, which beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman, then they can stay within 21 of the Sooners on the road.

This Oklahoma defense has shown plenty of holes all season, especially in conference play. It is giving up 28.2 points and 414.5 yards per game against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s not the sign of an elite team as this defense has been overrated all season. The Sooners were the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and they have fallen flat on their faces. While the Sooners have nothing to play for at this point except perhaps a better bowl game, the Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State would consider its season a success if it were to beat Oklahoma to get bowl eligible. The Cowboys have played the Sooners very tough in recent years, and I expect that to continue in 2014. They beat the Sooners 44-10 at home in 2011, and each of their last three losses to the Sooners have come by 9 points or less, and by a combined 18 points total. They want revenge after the Sooners spoiled their bid to win the Big 12 with a 33-24 upset last year.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Oregon -13.5

The Oregon Ducks (11-1) want revenge on the Wildcats after losing their last two meetings. I believe this line would be much bigger had the Ducks won both of them, but since it’s not I feel we are getting a discount on them as less than two-touchdown favorites. They were favored by more than 20 points in their last two meetings with the Wildcats, which is a good indication that we are getting them at a discount here.

Oregon has been on a mission over the last two months since that 24-31 loss to the Wildcats. It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall, winning all seven games by 12 points or more, including five of those by 24 or more. It just cannot be stopped offensively right now as it has scored at least 42 points in all seven of those contests. If it gets to 42 in this game, that will be enough to win by two touchdowns or more.

The Ducks are putting up 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota came back for one more season to win a championship, and he's been the best leader this team could ask for. Mariota is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards with a ridiculous 36-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 636 yards and 11 scores while averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt this season.

Arizona has a strong offense as well, but the way that its defense has played all year gives it little chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Oregon squad. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 434.7 yards per game to rank 96th in the country in total defense. That’s not the stop unit of a championship-caliber team. The Wildcats have to feel fortunate just to make the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a win for them in itself.

Oregon has put up huge numbers on Arizona in all their recent meetings. It has put up at least 446 yards of total offense in each of the last eight meetings with Arizona, including 500-plus four times. I just believe that the Wildcats can do nothing to slow down this Oregon offense, and the only way the Ducks don’t cover is if they beat themselves like they did in the last two meetings. They aren’t likely to beat themselves a third straight time, especially not with the way they are playing right now.

Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. The Ducks are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Oregon is 12-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass. Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.  Take Oregon Friday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green +7

If this game was played last week, I have no doubt that this line would be a lot smaller than it is right now. Northern Illinois (10-2) is coming off a huge 31-21 win at Western Michigan as an 8-point underdog, while Bowling Green(7-5)  is coming off a 41-24 home loss to Ball State despite being a 10-point favorite. Before you are quick to judge those results, you must understand the mental make-up of the teams going into them.

Northern Illinois knew that a win would get it in the MAC Championship. Western Michigan knew that a win would not get it in because it had lost to Toledo earlier in the season, so the Rockets held the tiebreaker. Toledo was a 23-point favorite against Eastern Michigan last Friday and rolled to victory. So, the Broncos essentially knew that they would not be playing in the MAC Championship even with a win because Toledo wasn’t going to lose to EMU.

Bowling Green already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship a couple weeks ago. It knew that a loss to Ball State would have no bearing on whether or not it would be playing in the title game for a second straight year, and it simply did not show up last week. Ball State rolled to a 17-point victory that was of no consequence to the Falcons. The betting public is going to be quick to judge those results more than they should.

Now, we are getting the Falcons at a great value as 7-point underdogs in this game. I’m more interested in how this team played when it had something to play for, and a closer look at those results shows that this is a quality team. The Falcons went 5-1 during a six-game stretch from the end of September to early November. Their only loss was to Western Michigan, which is arguably the best team in the MAC. They had three wins by double-digits during that stretch, including a 27-10 win at Akron and a 31-13 win at Ohio.

This Bowling Green defense was really improving prior to the Ball State game, which again, we cannot count. It had allowed less than 400 yards in four consecutive games prior to Ball State. That includes just 388 total yards to a high-powered Toledo offense that averages 486.2 on the season. I really do believe the Falcons have the better defense in this one and are fully capable of slowing down this NIU offense.

Northern Illinois’ biggest weakness is its stop unit. It really hasn’t done a whole lot to stop anyone all season. It is giving up 24.2 points and 390.9 yards per game against teams that have averaged 22.8 points and 364 yards per game. So, it is allowing 1.4 points and 27 yards per game more than opposing offenses average on the season.

The Huskies will have their hands full against a Bowling Green offense that has really been impressive this year. It is putting up 30.8 points and 441.6 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 181 yards on the ground and 261 through the air. NIU averages 30.6 points and 433.3 yards per game, so I’d argue that Bowling Green actually has the better offense because it has played the tougher schedule this year.

In the MAC Championship Game last year, Bowling Green rolled to a 47-27 victory over NIU. It simply did whatever it wanted to against a weak NIU defense, amassing 574 total yards in the win. I know the Huskies will be out for revenge, but that’s not a big enough factor to be too concerned. The Huskies even have a worse defense this year than they did last year, and their offense isn’t nearly as strong with the loss of QB Jordan Lynch.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOWLING GREEN) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1992. Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Bowling Green is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Bet Bowling Green Friday.

15* Cowboys/Bears NFC Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Simply put, the Chicago Bears have nothing to play for at this point in the season, while the Cowboys have everything to play for. At 5-7, the Bears could win out and still not make the playoffs. They had their two-game winning streak halted with an ugly 17-point loss to the Lions last week, and since they failed to get back to .500, they realize that their chances of making the postseason are slim to none.  That realization will make it hard for them to get back up off the mat tonight.

While the Cowboys’ 23-point loss to the Eagles was concerning, I believe that was only a minor blip on the radar for this team. They’ll have no problem getting back up off the mat knowing that all of their goals are still in front of them. This is essentially a must-win game for them because they play three of their final four games on the road and cannot afford to fall to losing teams like the Bears. That motivational edge is the biggest reason as to why I’m siding with the Cowboys in this contest.

The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in road games, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.6 points per game in the process. They have beaten the Titans (26-10), Rams (34-31), Seahawks (30-23), Jaguars (31-17) and the Giants (31-28) away from home this year.

Now, they get to face a Chicago team that has not played well at home all season. It is just 2-3 in home games this year with ugly losses to Buffalo (20-23), Green Bay (17-38) and Miami (14-27). Its only two home wins came against lowly Minnesota (21-13) and Tampa Bay (21-13). It was even outgained by 163 yards against the Buccaneers and never should have won that game.

The Bears have been thoroughly dominated in the box score over their last six games. They have been outgained by at least 103 yards in five of their last six games overall. They were outgained by 205 yards in a 17-34 loss to the Lions, by 163 yards in that 21-13 win over Tampa Bay, by 140 yards in a 14-55 loss to Green Bay, by 103 yards in a 23-51 loss to New England, and by 169 yards in a 14-27 loss to Miami.

Dallas boasts an elite offense that is putting up 25.2 points and 376.8 yards per game on the season, including 30.4 points and 378.6 yards per game on the road. It should have its way with a Chicago defense that allows 28.1 points and 376.3 yards per game on the season. The Bears rank 31st in the league in scoring defense and 26th in total defense. They stand little chance of slowing down Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and company.

The Bears are 13-37 ATS in their last 50 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average at least 6.0 yards per play. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a loss by 21 or more points.  The Bears are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game.  Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Dallas.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

15* UCF/East Carolina AAC Thursday No-Brainer on UCF +6.5

The UCF Knights (8-3, 6-1 AAC) have a chance to clinch a share of the American Athletic Conference Title with a win Thursday. They sit at 6-1 within the conference, tied with Cincinnati and only one game behind Memphis (7-1). ECU (5-2 AAC) already has its fate sealed as it will not be able to win the conference. That motivational edge certainly favors the Knights and is a big factor as to why I’ll be siding with them Thursday night as 6.5-point road underdogs.

UCF has won eight of its last nine games overall coming into this one with each of its last four wins all combing by 16 points or more. The only exception was a fluke 29-37 loss at Connecticut back on November 1st in a game they dominated, but ultimately lost due to committing four turnovers. They outgained the Huskies by 102 yards in that contest and should have won.

In fact, the Knights have outgained each of their last five opponents by at least 95 yards. They outgained SMU by 374 yards in a 53-7 win, outgained Tulsa by 305 yards in a 31-7 win, and outgained Temple by 284 yards in a 34-14 win in their three most impressive performances during this stretch. They also outgained South Florida by 95 yards last week in a 16-0 road victory.

If you’re a fan of defense like I am, then you’ll love what you’ve seen from this UCF stop unit this season. The Knights are giving up just 16.8 points and 271.2 yards per game on the season, ranking 4th in the country in total defense. That includes 15.0 points and 258.9 yards per game in conference play. In their last three games, the Knights have allowed a measly 4.7 points and 172.3 yards per game. They have what it takes on this side of the ball to slow down this high-powered ECU offense.

ECU isn’t nearly as dominant defensively as UCF. It is giving up an average of 25.1 points and 364.9 yards per game on the season against teams who only average 21.9 points and 343 yards per game. It has allowed 30.7 points and 433.0 yards per game in its last three coming in. That includes 54 points and 586 yards to Cincinnati, and 32 points and 388 total yards to Tulsa.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) – off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. ECU is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  ECU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. The Pirates are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. ECU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.

UCF is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in Thursday games over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Thursday.

15* Dolphins/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami -6.5

The New York Jets appear to have quit. Rex Ryan is a lame-duck coach who will be fired at season’s end. Their 38-3 loss to the Bills on Monday showed that they don’t have any fight left in them after a disastrous 2-9 start to the season. They keep going back and forth between quarterbacks and will give Geno Smith the start this week in place of Michael Vick. But, it really hasn’t mattered who is under center.

The Jets have rarely been competitive this season. They are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 points per game on the year. Their offense is a mess, scoring just 16.1 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense. I just don’t believe they have the firepower on this side of the ball to keep up with the Dolphins in this one.

Miami is even better than its 6-5 record would indicate this season. It has been playing some great football for a couple months now, going 5-3 in its last eight games overall with a chance to win in all five games. It suffered last-second losses to Green Bay (24-27) and Detroit (16-20), while also going toe-to-toe with Denver (36-39) on the road last week. I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they are elite.

The numbers really tell the story for the Dolphins. They are putting up 25.9 points per game this season while allowing just 19.9 points per game. They have been carried by a defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in allowing just 315.9 yards per game. That’s another reason why I don’t expect the Jets to be able to do anything offensively because they will be up against a similar defense like they were last week in Buffalo, which ranks 4th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between New York and Miami over the past two years. In fact, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings. Miami has won in blowout fashion in its last two trips to the Meadowlands. It won 23-3 on the road last year as a 1-point favorite, and 30-9 on the road in 2012 as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to New York.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on Monday night are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. The Jets are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 vs. excellent kickoff return teams that average more than 24 yards per return.

New York is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 per carry. It is expected to be without big defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson for this game, which will further hamper its run defense. The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents. The Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +5

The New Orleans Saints (4-7) clearly have not played up to their potential this season. However, there’s no question that they are much better than their record would indicate. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a combined six points. They have simply been unfortunate in close games. The good news is that they still have plenty to play for since they remain tied for first place in the NFC South.

The numbers certainly show that the Saints are better than their record. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 56.5 yards per game. In fact, of the top 18 teams in the league in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and Redskins, who are two of the most underrated teams in the league at this point in the season. I still believe the Saints are one of the better teams in the league.  What has hurt them is ranking 28th in turnover differential (-9), which has been bad luck as much as anything.

With an offense like the one the Saints boast, they have a chance to beat anyone. They are putting up 26.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 433.6 yards per game. Drew Brees hasn’t missed a beat this season despite all his critics. He is completing a ridiculous 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,491 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. He just recently got back Pierre Thomas from injury, who is his favorite outlet out of the backfield.

Pittsburgh has been tearing it up offensively as well this season, but it has been vulnerable on defense. It is giving up 23.9 points per game overall and 26.8 points per game at home. It has allowed 20 or more points in six consecutive games. It has given up 27 points to Cleveland, 27 to Tampa Bay, 31 to Cleveland, 34 to Indianapolis, and 24 to Tennessee, just to name a few of its poor performances on that side of the ball this year. It has allowed at least 19 points in 10 of its 11 games, and the only exception was Jacksonville, which sports the league's worst offense. It will give up another big number to this explosive Saints’ offense Sunday.

This will be a step up in competition for the Steelers, who have played the Jets and Titans in their last two games.  They lost to the Jets 20-13 on the road before squeaking out a come-from-behind victory over Tennessee (27-24) in their last game.  Ben Roethlisberger thre three interceptions, took seven sacks and hit just two passing plays of at least 25 yards while splitting those two games.

New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. While the Saints are 1-4 on the road this season, three of those losses came by 3 points or less. If they lose this game, there’s a good chance it will be by 4 points or less. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four Sunday games following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -3

The Buffalo Bills (6-5) are certainly playing for their city and trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt right now. The Buffalo area got as much as eight feet of snow in a short span last week, causing several snow-related deaths. The Bills brought some joy to the area with their dominant 38-3 win over the Jets last week. They thoroughly dominated that game, outgaining the Jets by 118 yards in the win. Now, they get back home in front of their fans at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere as the Browns come to town.

Kyle Orton has injected new life into the offense. He has gone 4-3 as a starter for this team with his only three losses coming against playoff contenders in New England, Kansas City and Miami. He is completing 65.4 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Orton has seven TDs and no INTs in his last four games.  Unlike past Buffalo quarterbacks, he is not allowing the Bills to beat themselves with costly turnovers on offense.

That’s very important because when you have a defense like Buffalo does, you do not want the offense to blow games by committing turnovers. The reason the Bills have staying power is because of their D. They are giving up just 18.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the league in total defense at 312.3 yards per game.

Cleveland is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. It is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now, let alone a 7-4 mark. The numbers tell the story. The Browns rank just 16th in the NFL in yardage differential as they are actually getting outgained on the season. The reason they do not have staying power is their defense, which is ranks 20th in the NFL in giving up 367.1 yards per game.

I’ll gladly back the better defense any day.  Plus, you have to consider the injuries that the Browns are dealing with right now.  Starting safety Tashaun Gipson, who leads the NFL with six interceptions, went out with a knee injury against Atlanta last week and may not return this season.  DL Phillip Taylor, DE Armonty Bryant, and DE John Hughes are all out, while DL Ahtyba Rubin, LB Jamaal Sheard and LB Karlos Dansby are all questionable to play Sunday.

The Browns have put up the better numbers offensively this year, but they have also played the much easier schedule.  They are averaging 22.0 point and 367 yards per game against teams that allow 24.3 points and 371 yards per game, so they have simply benefited from playing against terrible opposing defenses. 

The Bills are averaging 21.6 points and 323 yards per game against teams that give up 21.9 points and 336 yards per game, so they have had to play a much more difficult slate of defenses.  Plus, Orton hasn't started all year, and the offense has been much better with him under center.

Cleveland hasn't been able to run the football very well, averaging 116 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  It relies mostly on the pass, averaging 251 passing yards per game.  That makes this a great matchup for the Bills, who rank 5th in the league against the pass at 213.8 yards per game.  They also lead the league with 46 sacks on the season, which is an astronomical number.  Brian Hoyer is going to be under duress all game as this Buffalo pass rush plays inspired football behind its home crowd.

Plays on favorites (BUFFALO) – after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games during Weeks 10 through 13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Buffalo is 43-25 ATS in its last 68 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games.  Take the Bills Sunday.

25* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +7

The St. Louis Rams should not be favored by a touchdown against any team in the NFL. They are getting way too much respect for their recent wins over some of the best teams in the NFL, which were all really flukes when you take a closer look at it. Sure, they have beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver in three of their last six games, but they’ve also been blown out by Kansas City (7-34) and Arizona (14-31).

You could make the argument that the Rams should have lost each of their last seven games. That’s because they have actually been outgained by 60 or more yards in all seven of those games. They have been outgained by a total of 780 yards in their last seven games, or by an average of 111.4 yards per game. That’s not a sign of a good team, and certainly not a team that should be favored by a touchdown against any other NFL squad.

The Oakland Raiders (1-10) have continued to fight despite their poor record, actually coming through with a profitable 6-5 ATS mark to this point. They finally got the payoff with a 24-20 home win over Kansas City last week in which they outgained the Chiefs by 38 yards in the win. While this could be a letdown spot, I don’t believe it will be. That’s because the Raiders have had ample time to rest and get over those emotions. They played the Chiefs last Thursday so they come into this game on three more days’ rest than St. Louis.

You could see a win coming for the Raiders when you follow how close they had been to getting one. While they have lost six of their last seven games, five of those losses came by 11 points or fewer. The only exception was a 17-41 loss to Denver in which they only trailed 13-10 late in the first half before getting blown out after intermission. They even went into Seattle and only lost by 6, and they also lost to San Diego twice by 7 and 3 points during this stretch.

Though the Raiders finally had something to show for their efforts, they'd made strides by being within a score in the fourth quarter in five of the first six games since Tony Sparano replaced the fired Dennis Allen on Sept. 29. Oakland didn't score more than 14 points in any of the first four under Allen but has averaged 17.9 and scored at least 24 three times for Sparano.

In my mind, these teams are very equal. The numbers show that as well as the Rams are getting outgained by 53.4 yards per game, while the Raiders are getting outgained by 77.3 yards per game. So, the Rams have a slight edge, and should be no more than 4-point favorites at home. They should be roughly a 1-point favorite on a neutral field. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown this week is simply asking too much.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off one or more straight overs, a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% of less. The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of the season vs. poor ball control teams that average 28 or less possession minutes per game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +10

The Washington Redskins (3-8) have not won any game that Robert Griffin III has started and completed this season. Well, the good news is that Colt McCoy is expected to replace Griffin III as the starter this week. He has played extremely well in limited action. In fact, the Redskins are 2-0 in games that McCoy has finished in place of Griffin III and Kirk Cousins.

McCoy replaced an injured Cousins midway through the Tennessee game and led the Redskins to a 19-17 victory. He went 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in the win. He played the full game against Dallas on Monday Night Football in their last win, a 20-17 (OT) thriller as a 9-point road underdog. McCoy completed a ridiculous 25-of-30 passes for 299 yards, while also rushing for 16 yards and a score to lead the Redskins to victory.  That makes him 36-of-42 passing in his last two games.

Certainly, Washington has little to play for at this point at 3-8, but McCoy could be the spark it needs to get back up off the mat this week. After all, the Redskins have clearly not quit as they only lost by three to Minnesota and by four to San Francisco in two of their last three losses. Griffin III has been the biggest culprit for the losses, but the numbers show that this is still a solid football team on both sides of the ball.

Indeed, the Redskins rank 9th in the league in yardage differential, actually outgaining teams by an average of 34.2 yards per game. A whopping 16 of the top 18 teams in yardage differential this season actually have winning records. The only exceptions are the Redskins and Saints (5th), who are both clearly much better than their records would indicate.

Washington ranks a respectable 11th in the league in total offense at 365.2 yards per game. It also ranks 10th in total defense, giving up just 331.0 yards per game. There is no way that with those numbers this team should be a 10-point underdog to the Colts this week. Six of the Redskins’ eight losses this season have come by 11 points or less. Asking Indianapolis to win by double-digits to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

The Colts rely heavily on the pass to move the football, and Washington is one of the best teams in the league at getting after the passer.  Andrew Luck was sacked five fumbles and had four fumbles against Washington last week.  The Redskins have an effective pass rush that ranks 14th in sacks (27.0) this season.  They have been very unfortunate to have only four picks on the season, and they rank 28th in turnover differential (-9), which is also unfortunate to this point.  They won't be turning it over with McCoy under center.

Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-31 (70.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Washington is 17-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game after eight-plus games since 1992. The Redskins are a perfect 13-0 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season since 1992. Washington is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Chargers +6.5

I believe the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) are overvalued coming into this one after their win over the Saints last week on Monday Night Football. That’s the same Saints team that is just 4-7 right now and has lost three straight at home coming in, and the Ravens were coming off their bye, so it was a good spot for them. It’s not the Saints team of year’s past that was a Super Bowl contender almost every year. Asking the Ravens to come back on a short week and beat the Chargers by a touchdown or more to cover this spread is asking too much.

San Diego (7-4) comes into this game undervalued because it has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and has shunned this team as a result, forcing oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be. Sure, the Chargers are coming off wins over the Rams and Raiders by a combined 10 points, but that’s nothing to be ashamed of. The Rams have beaten the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos lately, while the Raiders just knocked off the Chiefs last week.

The numbers indicate that the Chargers are still one of the better teams in the league. Their offense is putting up a respectable 22.3 points per game, but the biggest reason for their success has been their defense. The Chargers are only giving up 19.6 points and 330.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. The Ravens are a pedestrian 15th in total defense, giving up 352.9 yards per game.

The Chargers obviously rely heavily on Philip Rivers and the passing game. They are completing 67.8 percent of thheir passes for 248 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt against teams that are giving up 64.0% completions, 231 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.  They put up 410 yards on a very good St. Louis defense last week, including 282 passing.  Rivers went 29 of 35 passing for 291 yards.  Ryan Matthews returned from injury and rushed for 112 yards on just 12 carries.

That makes this a very good matchup for Rivers and company because the weakness of the Baltimore defense is against the pass. Indeed, the Ravens are giving up 65.7% completions, 265 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt this season. They rank 29th in the league against the pass.  They are also playing without their best cornerback in Jimmy Smith, who is on the IR with a foot injury.

Plays on road teams (SAN DIEGO) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

20* Utah State/Boise State Mountain West BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos will be playing for the right to go to the Mountain West Championship Game today.  The only reason that is possible is because Colorado State lost to Air Force yesterday, giving the Aggies hope.

Had the Rams won that game against Air Force, they would have had the tiebreaker over Utah State, and then the Aggies would have had nothing to play for but pride today.  I believe that win by the Falcons will be huge for Utah State's mental state heading into this one as they'll be charged up knowing they have a chance to get back to the MWC Title Game for a second straight year.

Utah State hasn't lost since that 13-16 road loss to Colorado State.  It has gone 5-0 since with all five victories coming by seven points or more, including four by 14 points or more.  I just really like the way that this team has been playing and the fact that it has one of the most underrated defenses in the country.

Indeed, the Aggies rank 1st in the Mountain West in scoring and total defense, giving up just 18.3 points and 351.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.9 points and 349.7 yards per game in conference play.  I will take good defense over good offense any day as Boise State ranks 1st in the conference in total offense.

However, it's not like the Aggies have been lacking on offense, either.  They are putting up 28.1 points per game on the season and 29.3 points per game in conference play.  This offense has been much sharper since stud freshman Kent Myers took over as the starting quarterback. 

He is completing a ridiculous 73.4 percent of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt.  Myers has also been their best dual-threat quarterback this season as he has added 192 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 6.2 per carry.  Most teams couldn't perform well when they were down to their fourth-string QB, but Myers has really been a diamond in the rough for the Aggies.

While Boise State has been great offensively this season, it has been horrible on the other side of the football.  It is giving up 28.4 points per game on the season, including a ridiculous 31.0 points per game in conference play.  That's really bad when you consider the Mountain West just isn't that good.

Utah State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game.  The Aggies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Utah State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS int he last seven meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Auburn/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -9

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) have been waiting for this game since last year. They want revenge on the Tigers from that crushing 34-28 defeat that sent Auburn to the SEC Championship. Now, a spot in the title game is at stake for the Crimson Tide this week, while the Tigers have no shot of playing in it. So, from a motivational perspective, there’s no question that the Crimson Tide have the edge heading into this one.

More importantly, Alabama is the better team. In fact, I believe it is the most complete team in the country. This is easily one of the best offenses in school history. The Crimson Tide are averaging 35.0 points and 482.4 yards per game against teams that give up 25.4 points and 393 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide have been dominant again this year. They are allowing just 14.5 points and 283.1 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 411 yards per game.

Auburn once again has an explosive offense that puts up 35.1 points and 476.8 yards per game. However, this is a terrible matchup for them because they rely primarily on the run to move the football. Alabama only gives up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Alabama’s ability to stop the run will be the difference in this one.

While the Tigers have a decent defense, it is nowhere near up to the caliber of Alabama’s stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 23.5 points and 375.6 yards per game on the season. They have given up at least 31 points five times this year.  They allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina, 34 to Georgia and 31 to Ole Miss. They lost three of those five games. Alabama is sure to hang a big number on this vulnerable Auburn defense as well.

Sure, Auburn has won two of the last six meetings in this series, but they shouldn’t have won either of those as they needed some late-game heroics to do so. Alabama outgained Auburn by 102 yards last year, by 320 yards in 2012, by 257 yards in 2011, by 119 yards in 2010, was outgained by 41 yards in 2009, and outgained the Tigers by 242 yards in 2008. As you can see, this really has been a one-sided series over the past six years when you take a closer look at the box scores.

Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off two home no-covers where it won straight up as a favorite. That’s another reason why this line is smaller than it should be because the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Alabama is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 33.3 points per game.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* Florida/Florida State Rivalry Play on Florida +7.5

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) have been overvalued all season after winning the BCS Championship last year. They created expectations for themselves that they simply could not live up to, especially from the betting public and the oddsmakers. Despite going 11-0 to this point, they have gone a woeful 3-8 against the spread. They have won five games this season by six points or less and are extremely fortunate to remain undefeated.

Asking the Seminoles to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread against rival Florida is asking too much. They have beaten worse teams by less. Their five wins by six points or less have come against Oklahoma State (37-31), Clemson (23-17), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26) and Boston College (20-17).

They also failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel (37-12), as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State (56-41), as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse (38-20), and as a 21-point favorite against Virginia (34-20). As you can see, several teams that aren’t as good as Florida have played the Seminoles very tough this season.

Yes, the Gators have lost four games this season, but those four losses have come against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Missouri and South Carolina. They were only blown out twice as the 21-42 loss at Alabama was a legitimate blowout, but the 13-42 loss to Missouri wasn’t. They actually held the Tigers to just 119 total yards but committed six turnovers and gave up several non-offensive touchdowns in a fluke blowout. Their losses to LSU (27-30) and South Carolina (20-23) came by three points each.

Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Treon Harris as the starting quarterback. He returned as a starter against Georgia and led Florida to a 38-20 road victory. They also beat Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road, lost to South Carolina in overtime, and beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3.

Harris has thrown six touchdowns against one interception while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 250 yards and three scores in limited action.  To compare, Jeff Driskel only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt before being replaced to Harris.  Both the passing game and the running game have gotten a boost with Harris under center.  The Gators have rushed for 214-plus yards in three of their last four games and will use Boston College's blueprint from last week to run the ball and control the time of possession.

While Harris certainly has given the offense a huge boost, the biggest reason the Gators have a chance to not only cover but win this game outright is their defense. Will Muschamp has an elite stop unit that is giving up just 20.9 points and 308.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Florida State has been more vulnerable on that side of the ball, allowing 379.2 yards per game to rank 55th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team has won each of the last three meetings while going 3-0 ATS. Florida won its last trip to Tallahassee by a final of 37-26 as a 7-point underdog in 2012. It has actually gone 4-1 straight up in its last five road games against Florida State. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are 3-1 straight up on the road this season with their only loss coming at Alabama.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +14

This is Senior Night for Penn State, and I look for it to put forth one of its best performances of the season today at home against Michigan State.  Asking the Spartans to win by more than two touchdowns to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

While Penn State is just 6-5 this season, I would argue that this team is better than its record would indicate.  It has simply been unfortunate in close games.  Indeed, four of its five losses have come by 7 points or less, and by a combined 15 points..

The one close loss that really stands out that shows the Nittany Lions can play with the Buckeyes is the 24-31 home loss to Ohio State.  They lost that game in overtime and held the Buckeyes to just 293 total yards.  That's the same Ohio State team that went into Michigan State and won 49-37 as the Spartans allowed 568 total yards in the loss.

What gives Penn State a chance to hang around in this game is its superb defense.  It is only giving up 16.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 267.2 yards per game.  It has allowed 20 or fewer points in eight of its 11 games this season, and if it does that against Michigan State, it will have no problem covering this spread.

Penn State has played Michigan State very tough in recent years.  Indeed, it is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Spartans.  Its two losses during this stretch came by 6 and 4 points, so you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that the Nittany Lions lost to the Spartans by more than this spread of 14 points.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following one or more consecutive unders.  It is winning by 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games following a road loss.  Penn State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Penn State.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl Beat Down on Mississippi State -2.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) need one more win to likely get them into the college football playoff. I believe they get that victory Saturday in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3). Getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly a gift from the oddsmakers in this one. These teams are headed in opposite directions right now.

Mississippi State has arguably been the best team in the SEC all season. Its only loss came on the road by a final of 20-25 at Alabama as a 10-point underdog. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings, so going into Tuscaloosa and only losing by five points shows that the Bulldogs can play with anyone. They have also beaten the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU among others within the SEC.

This is really more of a fade against Ole Miss than anything. The Rebels have had their dreams of winning the SEC crushed in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. They fell 7-10 at LSU, 31-35 at home against Auburn, and then appeared to quit in a 0-30 loss at Arkansas last week. I know this is a rivalry game, but I really do not like the mental state of the Rebels at all heading into this game. They just don’t have nearly as much to play for as the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss’ downfall coincided with the loss of its two best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche suffered a broken ankle in late October and is out for the season. Wide receiver Laquan Treadwell suffered a broken leg in the closing seconds against Auburn and is also out for the rest of the year. Nkemdiche was their enforcer at middle linebacker, while Treadweall was their top playmaker on offense at receiver.

Both teams feature solid defenses as the Bulldogs are giving up 18.4 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 13.5 per game. The difference in this game is going to be Mississippi State’s offense, which has been unstoppable in averaging 39.0 points and 511.7 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 248 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Ole Miss only averages 435.5 yards per game and has been much less explosive here of late. It is averaging just 12.7 points per game in its last three SEC games, and was shut out in its first SEC game without Treadwell against Arkansas.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) – off one or more consecutive unders, good offensive team – scoring 31 or more points/game are 72-28 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Ole Miss is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 November games.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Georgia Rivalry Play on Georgia Tech +12

The Georgia Bulldogs are deflated right now.  They needed Missouri to lose to Arkansas yesterday to earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game.  The Tigers came from behind and won, meaning they will be going to the SEC Championship for a second straight year, while the Bulldogs will be watching from home.

While this game against Georgia Tech was going to have no bearing on Georgia's SEC Championship hopes, it's certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs won't be in a good state of mind because of yesterday's result by Missouri.

Georgia Tech (9-2), meanwhile, is in a great state of mind knowing that it will be playing Florida State in the ACC Championship next week.  It also wants revenge from a tough 34-41 (OT) loss to Georgia last year.  It blew a 20-7 halftime lead in that game and will certainly be licking its chops at a chance at revenge.

The Yellow Jackets also come into this game as the fresher team.  They are coming off their bye week after dismantling Clemson 28-6 back on November 15th.  They have been playing some tremendous football of late that will give them the confidence they need to try and pull off the upset in this one.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with all four wins coming by 22 or more points.  They won at Pitt 56-28 as a 4-point underdog, beat Virginia 35-10 as a 4-point home favorite, beat NC State 56-23 as a 3-point road favorite, and topped Clemson 28-6 as a 2-point home dog.  It's also worth noting that both of Georgia Tech's losses this year came by 6 points or less.

I would argue that this is the best team that Paul Johnson has had at Georgia Tech, and that's saying a lot considering this team has won the ACC Championship in his time here.  The biggest reason for that is the play of quarterback Justin Thomas.

Thomas leads an offense that puts up 37.8 points and 469.6 yards per game this season.  He leads the team in rushing (827 yards, 5 TD, 5.4/carry), but the difference has been his passing.  He has thrown for 1,396 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

This Georgia Tech defense has really stepped up its play this year as well, allowing a respectable 24.1 points per game on the year.  They have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets allowed just 6 points and 190 total yards to Clemson last time out.

Georgia has been extremely vulnerable against the run here of late, allowing an average of 243.0 yards per game in their last four games.  They gave up a whopping 418 yards to Florida in a 20-38 loss.  This Georgia Tech triple-option attack should have plenty of success, just as it did last year when it racked up 34 points and 495 total yards against Georgia.

Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 75%.  The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Georgia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

I just love Kentucky's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It sits at 5-6 on the season, so it will be motivated for a win to get to its first bowl game since 2010.  It also comes in on two weeks' rest after playing its last game on November 15th against Tennessee.

I hate Louisville's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It is coming off a taxing 31-28 win at Notre Dame last week that took a lot out of the Cardinals emotionally.  That makes this a huge letdown spot for them off such a big win in South Bend.

Kentucky absolutely cannot wait to get away from the tough SEC slate they've been up against during their current five-game losing streak.  Their last five games have come against LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee with three of those on the road.  This bye week could not have come at a better time after that gauntlet.

This is the best Kentucky team that we've seen in years.  A big reason for that is the play of former Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles at quarterback.  He leads a Kentucky offense that is putting up 28.2 points per game this season.  Towles is completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 293 yards and six scores.

The Wildcats also will be motivated for revenge following three consecutive losses to the Cardinals in this series.  They have only lost to Louisville by more than 13 points twice in their last seven meetings, and even those were competitive as they lost by 14 points last year and by 18 in 2012.  This is easily the best Kentucky team that Louisville has faced since at least 2010.  The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

"We've got a lot to play for," Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. "Guys are excited and energized. It's been a good, tough stretch against some quality teams."

"I think a win this weekend would do an awful lot for these players," Stoops said. "I think they deserve it. They put in the work. They've put in the time, they care and they deserve to win and have that taste of success and that taste of a bowl game."

Plays on a road team (KENTUCKY) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS after outrushing its last opponents by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers both blew their chances at getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with losses last week.  Now, they both look to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing losses and to finish the regular season with one final victory.

I like Iowa's chances of getting up off the mat a lot more because its loss wasn't as crushing because it was expected to lose, while Nebraska was expected to win.  Nebraska lost at home to Minnesota 24-28 as an 8.5-point favorite, while Iowa lost at home to Wisconsin 24-26 as an 8.5-point underdog.

The Cornhuskers were coming off a 24-59 loss at Wisconsin the previous week, and I don't believe they will care a whole lot about winning this final game of the season.  Iowa has showed some fight and I like it's mental state much better, especially considering this is Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.  That will be motivation enough to get back up off the mat.

Iowa has played very well at home in Big Ten play.  It has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home within the conference with blowout wins over Indiana (45-29) and Northwestern (48-7) as well as that 2-point loss to Wisconsin (24-26).

I really like what I've seen from this Iowa offense that last two weeks to compliment a very good defense.  The Hawkeyes put up 587 total yards in their 30-14 win at Illinois two weeks ago, limiting the Illini to just 235 total yards in the process.  They also racked up 412 total yards against a very good Wisconsin defense last week.

Nebraska only managed 180 total yards in its 24-59 loss to Wisconsin.  It gave up 581 rushing yards in that game, and then followed it up by giving up 281 rushing yards to Minnesota last week.  Iowa is a team that loves to run the football as it has rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of its 11 games this season.  The Hawkeyes should have a big day on the ground and get continued solid play from QB Jake Rudock.

Iowa went into Nebraska last year and beat the Huskers 38-17.  The Huskers were in a similar position in that game as they knew they would not be going to the Big Ten Championship.  That is the case again this season, and I don't expect the Huskers to put up much of a fight at all.  They are also battling a ton of key injuries right now that will hamper their chances.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game.  The Hawkeyes are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Iowa is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 vs. great offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* WKU/Marshall Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky +24

I faded Marshall with success last week as they only beat UAB 23-18 on the road as an 18-point favorite.  I will be fading them for many of the same reasons as last week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 11-0 straight up and 7-3 ATS records on the season.

The betting public has been quick to back Marshall because they have covered so many big spreads this year.  But, they have played such a soft schedule up to this point that it's almost a joke.  Their last game against UAB was the toughest opponent that they have played up to this point, and they barely won.

The other 10 wins have come against Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio, Akron, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, FIU, FAU, Southern Miss and Rice.  If that's not a cupcake schedule, I don't know what is.  Now, like UAB, they play another opponent capable of putting up a fight this week.

Western Kentucky (6-5) comes in playing its best football of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last three games overall.  It beat UTEP 35-27 to start the streak, dominated Army 52-24 while outgaining the Black Knights by 228 yards, and dominated UTSA 45-7 while outgaining the Roadrunners by 232 yards.

The thing you have to like about the Hilltoppers is that they can score with anyone, so they are capable of keeping up with the Thundering Herd.  They average a whopping 41.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the country in total offense at 508.1 yards per game.  Marshall averages 44.9 points per game to compare.

Plus, you have to consider that the Hilltoppers have played the tougher schedule.  Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has been brilliant, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,853 yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions this year.  He would love nothing more than to knock off Marshall in the final regular season game of his career.

However, the Hilltoppers are no one-trick pony.  They have proven fully capable of moving the ball on the ground behind the outstanding play of running back Leon Allen, who has rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Anthony Wales (423 yards, 4 TD, 6.2/carry) has been a nice compliment to him.

Western Kentucky is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Hilltoppers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Western Kentucky Friday.

20* NIU/WMU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +7.5

There are three teams tied atop the MAC West standings with 6-1 records with a chance to play in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green next week.  Two of them square off today in Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, while the other is Toledo.

It's almost a given that Northern Illinois or Toledo will advance.  That's because Toledo plays cupcake Eastern Michigan today and is listed as a 23-point favorite.  It will surely win that game.  Toledo would make it with a Western Michigan win against Northern Illinois.

The only way that Western Michigan will be going to the championship game is if it wins today and Toledo loses, so that is almost out of the question.  The players know that a Toledo loss is unlikely, so they have that in the back of their heads and probably feel defeated right now.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, gets into the MAC Championship with a win.  It has a head-to-head win over Toledo so it would own the tiebreaker, while WMU lost to Toledo and would lose that tiebreaker.  So, from a motivational perspective, you do not want your money on Western Michigan, but you want it on NIU given the situation.

Western Michigan is way overvalued in this game given the circumstances.  But the biggest reason it is overvalued is the fact that it has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.  The betting public has taken notice and has jumped on them, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

NIU is a perennial MAC Championship Contender that has been to the title game in four consecutive seasons, winning two of them.  So, they are used to being in this spot, but it wasn't a given this year.  This team has come out and earned it by going 9-2 this season despite many picking them to finish outside of 1st place.

What has been most impressive about NIU is its ability to overcome the losses of stud quarterbacks in recent years.  It is still putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game this season, including 251 rushing and 5.0 per carry. 

Quarterback Drew Hare has been an absolute stud, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, while also rushing for 754 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.2 per carry.

Western Michigan has played one of the softest schedules you can imagine, which is the biggest reason for its 8-3 record.  It has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Purdue (34-43), Virginia Tech (17-35) and Toledo (19-20).  I would argue that NIU is the best team that it has faced up to this point.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.  It is coming back to win these games by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Another thing you have to like about the Huskies is that they last played on November 18th, while WMU last played on November 22nd.  That's an extra four days of rest for the Huskies compared to the Broncos.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* Seahawks/49ers Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on San Francisco PK

These teams are pretty much mirror images of one another. There is little that separates them in terms of the way they play. Both rely on strong running games and elite defenses to win. I believe these teams would be equals on a neutral field, but since this game is being played in Santa Clara, the advantage clearly goes to the 49ers. They should be laying a field goal to the Seahawks, but since they’re not I believe there is value in backing them at a pick 'em.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Seattle and San Francisco. The home team is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The only exception was a 19-17 win by the 49ers in Seattle back in 2011. The 49ers have won each of their last five home meetings with the Seahawks. I fully expect this trend to continue as they will be the more hungry team because they’ll be out for revenge from a loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship last year.

The 49ers have pulled out some gutty wins here of late in close games. They got a huge game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last week against the Redskins to pull out a victory. That game wasn’t as close as the final score of 17-13 would indicate as they outgained the Redskins 312-213 for the game. Their recent resolve in close games will serve them well in this contest as it figures to go down to the wire as well.

This San Francisco defense is getting healthy at the right time, but health hasn’t mattered all that much as this is clearly one of the deepest defenses in the league. The 49ers are giving up just 20.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL In total defense at 300.1 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their opponents average 362 yards per game against everyone else, so they are holding them to 62 yards per game below their season averages.

Without question, the Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, but it has been a completely different story on the road. The Seahawks are just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season. Their only two wins have come against Washington (27-17) and Carolina (13-9), while their three losses have come to San Diego, St. Louis and Kansas City. This team is very beatable when they are away from the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field.

The 49ers have the perfect antidote to stop this Seattle offense.  The Seahawks rely heavily on the run, and the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 92.9 yards per game.  They also have some very quick pass rushers on the edge led by Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith who have the quickness to chase down Russell Wilson when he scrambles.  Look for the Seahawks to struggle to do anything offensively against the 49ers Thursday night.

When teams have to play on short weeks, it certainly favors the home team.  That will be the case this week because the 49ers didn't have to travel anywhere after beating the Redskins at home last week.  They will be the more prepared team because of it as the Seahawks have to travel down from Seattle after their big win against the short-handed Cardinals last week.  That also sets the Seahawks up for a possible letdown spot off such a big win over the division-leading Cardinals, especially after beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship last year.  They may be a little too comfortable mentally heading into this one.

Seattle is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. The Seahawks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing six points or less in their previous game. Seattle is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games following a win by more than 14 points. San Francisco is 26-9-3 ATS in its last 38 games following an ATS loss. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the 49ers Thursday.

20* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on LSU -3

While it has certainly been a down season by LSU (7-4) standards, I have seen enough from this team to know that it is worthy of being more than a 3-point favorite at Texas A&M Thursday night. Its four losses have come to the likes of Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Three of those teams are ranked in the top 15, while the other (Arkansas) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

LSU even played both Mississippi State and Alabama very tough. It only lost 29-34 at home to Mississippi State, which is currently ranked No. 4 in the country. No. 1 Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU 20-13. If they can play with those two teams, the Tigers can certainly go into College Station and come away with a victory this week.

Simply put, this is a down year for Texas A&M (7-4). The Aggies are 3-4 in SEC play and have been thoroughly outplayed in each of their last four games despite going 2-2. They lost 59-0 at Alabama and were outgained by 430 yards in that contest. They barely beat Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 at home and should have lost that game as they were outgained by 104 yards. They did upset Auburn 41-38, but were outgained by 129 yards and never should have won.

The Aggies were also outgained by Missouri by 246 yards in their 27-34 home loss last time out. So, when you add up the yardage totals for their last four games, you find that the Aggies have actually been outgained by an average of 227.3 yards per game. That is the sign of a really bad team, and one that doesn’t belong on the same field as LSU Thursday night.

The difference in this game is going to be LSU’s running game against Texas A&M’s weak run defense. LSU averages 205 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, while Texas A&M gives up 210 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Tigers are going to be able to run at will on this soft Aggies’ defense. Texas A&M gave up 363 rushing yards to Auburn, 335 to Missouri, 298 to Alabama, 289 to Mississippi State, 285 to Arkansas, and 240 to Rice.  More of the same can be expected against the Tigers.

LSU has owned Texas A&M each of the last three seasons. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Aggies, winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. The Aggies were much stronger the last two years than they are this season. LSU beat Texas A&M 34-10 at home last year while outgaining the Aggies 517-299 for the game, or by 218 total yards. They rushed for 324 yards in the win.

Plays on road favorites (LSU) – after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 31-4 (88.6%) ATS since 1992. Texas A&M is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 points per game or more. The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.  The Aggies are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in its previous game. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a bye week. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system going against Texas A&M.  Bet LSU Thursday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day MAIN COURSE on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) are 8-1 this season when Tony Romo plays the entire 60 minutes. The only loss came in the opener against the 49ers back when he was rusty after missing much of training camp with a back injury. He appears fully healthy now in leading the Cowboys to back-to-back wins and 31 points each against the Jaguars and Giants since returning from another back injury suffered against the Redskins.

Romo leads a Dallas offense that is putting up 26.5 points and 386.8 yards per game this season, ranking 6th in the league in total offense. Without question, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 68.8 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 8.5 per attempt.

A big reason for his success has been the offensive line and running game behind DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 1,354 yards and seven scores to lead the league in rushing.  In fact, the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 150.1 yards per game as a team.

This Dallas offense should have its way with a Philadelphia defense that has been atrocious this year. The Eagles are giving up 25.0 points and 375.2 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total defense. They have been even worse on the road, where they are 2-3 and giving up 30.2 points and 385 yards per game away from home.

Another big reason for Dallas’ resurgence this season has been its defense, which is giving up a respectable 21.8 points and 355.0 yards per game on the year. The Cowboys have been solid against the run, allowing just 107 rushing yards per game, so they should be able to hold LeSean McCoy in check in this one.

Philadelphia has looked good at home since Mark Sanchez took over at quarterback, but its two home wins with him under center have come against Carolina and Tennessee.  The Eagles were blown out in Sanchez's lone road start this year, a 20-53 beat down at the hands of Green Bay.  He completed just 59% of his passes and threw two picks in the loss, one that was returned for a touchdown.

Dallas is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia over the past two seasons. The only game it lost was in Week 17 last year when Romo had to miss the game due to his back injury. Even then, the Cowboys only lost 22-24 and actually outgained the Eagles 414-366 for the game with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Look for Romo to improve to 4-0 in his last four starts against the Eagles with a win Thursday.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) – off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS since 1983.  Another factor to consider is that this is a short week, which is much easier for the home team.  Traveling on a short week is very tough for the road team with only three days in between games and very little practice time.

Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Ohio/Miami (Ohio) MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ohio -3

The Ohio Bobcats (5-6) need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they have every reason to be motivated coming into this game. At 2-9 on the season, Miami Ohio has nothing to play for but pride. I like the motivational angle favoring the Bobcats as well as the way they have been playing of late, which has been very impressive.

Ohio has played two of its best games of the season in its last two contests. The first was a 37-14 home win over Buffalo in which it outgained the Bulls by 255 yards and dominated in every phase of the game. The second came in a losing effort to Northern Illinois (14-21) last week. It actually outgained the Huskies by 19 yards for the game. The Huskies are the favorites to win the MAC right now with just one conference loss all season, so that effort was impressive by the Bobcats.

While I will admit that the Redhawks are better than their 2-9 record would indicate, I still believe they should be a bigger underdog in this contest. They have had some close losses this season, but the fact is that they continue to lose. They only have two wins all year, and those two came against MAC bottom feeders UMass (42-41) and Kent State (10-3) by a combined eight points. Both of those games were played at home, too.

Miami Ohio has had some poor performances on its home turf as well. It lost at home to FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 10-17, while also falling to Western Michigan 10-41 in its last home game. It was outgained by the Broncos by 263 yards in that contest. That was the fourth time this season that the Redhawks have been outgained by 144 or more yards in a game. They are getting outscoring by 10.0 points per game on the season and outgained by 58.5 yards per game.

Ohio has really gotten its running game going here of late. It rushed for 233 yards on Buffalo and 203 yards on Northern Illinois in its last two games. It should be able to move the football at will on the ground against a Miami Ohio defense that has been soft as butter against the run.

The Redhawks are giving up 202 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry this season against teams that average 161 rushing yards and 4.4 per carry.  They gave up 273 rushing yards to Buffalo, 433 to Northern Illinois, 282 to Western Michigan and 209 to Central Michigan.  As you can see, these numbers are staggering and suggest that they can do little to stop the run.

The Bobcats are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redhawks. They won 41-16 at home last year while outgaining Miami Ohio 535-240 for the game, or by 295 total yards. Miami Ohio is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. The Redhawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Roll with Ohio Tuesday.

20* Ravens/Saints MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans -3

There is one thing that really stands out to me about this game and shows that there is value in backing the Saints as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens. In their last two games, the Saints were 6-point home favorites against the 49ers and 8.5-point home favorites against the Bengals. After losing those two games, they are only 3-point home favorites this week.

I believe both the 49ers and Bengals are better teams than the Ravens, but they were both much bigger road underdogs. After all, Cincinnati did beat Baltimore twice this year. This over-adjustment from the oddsmakers has provided us with a ton of line value in backing the Saints at home. Sure, the Ravens are coming off a bye week, but that bye is not worth this many points.

Without question, New Orleans still has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-2 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 18-3-1 (86%) ATS at home dating back to 2011-12. This is still one of the toughest places to play in the NFL despite the losses the last two weeks.

I have no doubt that the Saints are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate. Four of their six losses have come by a field goal or less and a combined nine points. That’s how close this is to being possibly an 8-2 team. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by 54.6 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Steelers, Colts and Seahawks rank ahead of them in this department, and all four of those teams are borderline elite.

Baltimore is just 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS on the road this season with its two wins coming against the likes of Cleveland and Tampa Bay. It has lost at Indianapolis (13-20), Cincinnati (24-27) and Pittsburgh (23-43). This team is clearly not as good on the road as it is at home, where it is 4-1 on the season. Plus, New Orleans hasn’t lost three straight home games since 2005.

The Saints’ problems certainly aren’t on Drew Brees. He leads a Saints offense that ranks 2nd in the league at 424.5 yards per game.  Brees has been great all season, completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 3,071 yards with 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He should have another big day against a Baltimore defense that ranks 21st against the pass, giving up 251.2 yards per game. The Ravens have only picked off opposing quarterbacks six times all season.

New Orleans is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games overall. The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Ravens are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Bet the Saints Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Vikings +9

There is no question that the Green Bay Packers (7-3) are overvalued right now due to scoring 50-plus points in each of their last two games, which is a first in franchise history. Asking any NFL team to go on the road to win by double-digits to cover is asking a lot. That’s especially the case in a division rivalry game like this one as these games are always played closer to the vest.

Sure, the Packers beat the Eagles 53-20 last week, but that score was very misleading. They only outgained the Eagles by 46 yards in the win. Their defense gave up 429 yards to the Eagles as well. The difference was that Philadelphia committed four turnovers, and Green Bay capitalized with a whopping three non-offensive touchdowns. Any time a team is coming off a game with multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns, they are likely going to be overvalued the next week.

Sure, the Packers are 7-3 this season, but a closer look at the numbers shows that they are not as good as their record would indicate. They actually rank just 19th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 7.9 yards per game. That’s due to a defense that ranks 25th in the league in allowing 377.4 yards per game. This defense just cannot be trusted.

Green Bay did crush Minnesota 42-10 in the first meeting this year, but Christian Ponder was the starting quarterback in that game. It was closer than the final score would indicate, too, as the Packers only outgained the Vikings 320-299 for the game. The Packers simply capitalized on three Minnesota turnovers, including one that resulted in a defensive touchdown.

One thing that shows how blatantly obvious it is that the Packers are overvalued this week is based on the line compared to the first time these teams played.  Green Bay was a 9.5-point home favorite over Minnesota in the first meeting.  And, that was with Ponder as the Vikings' quarterback.  When you factor in home-field advantage, the Packers should only be a 3.5-point favorite at Minnesota in the rematch.  Factor in that Bridgewater is now the quarterback, and perhaps the Packers shouldn't even be favored at all.

The Vikings have been much more competitive with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting quarterback. They have gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS with Bridgewater at the helm. They beat Atlanta 41-28 and Washington 29-26 at home, while also topping Tampa Bay 19-13 on the road. They were even competitive in their losses aside from perhaps a 3-17 loss to Detroit. They also fell at Buffalo 16-17 and at Chicago 13-21.  So, they have essentially been in every game they've played with Bridgewater under center.

Bridgewater should have a very good day against this suspect Green Bay defense, but what really gives Minnesota a chance to keep this game close is its own stop unit. The Vikings are vastly improved on this side of the ball under the guidance of first-year head coach Mike Zimmer. They rank 12th in the league in total defense, giving up 340.5 yards per game. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 74-37 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Green Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three years.  These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Minnesota.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +14

Any time you are catching double-digits in the NFL it’s a wise move to first look at taking the underdog. These double-digits dogs have proven to be a very profitable bet throughout the years. I have enough reasons supporting the Jaguars to feel confident in taking the 14 points this week against the Colts despite the fact that they have not played well against them in recent meetings.

Jacksonville has been a completely different team in its last five games. Sure, it has gone 1-4 in its last five, but all four losses have come by 14 points or fewer. In fact, the Jaguars have not lost by more than 14 points since September. They arguably should not be 1-4 in their last five either because a closer look at the box scores show that they have actually outplayed the opposition.

The Jaguars have actually outgained their last five opponents by a total of 86 yards. They outgained the Titans by 89 yards in a 14-16 road loss, outgained the Browns by 70 yards in a 24-6 home win, outgained the Dolphins by 51 yards in a 13-27 home loss, were outgained by the Bengals by 58 yards in a 23-33 road loss, and were outgained by the Cowboys by 66 yards in a 17-31 road loss. So, they haven’t been outgained by more than 66 yards in any of their last five games.

The rest factor for the Jaguars coming into this one is going to be huge. They finally had their bye last week, and they would love nothing more than to beat the division-leading Colts when they return from it Sunday. Having two full weeks to prepare for this game should do this young team wonders. They could also catch the Colts in a hangover spot from their poor performance against the Patriots last week.

This Indianapolis defense is terrible. It has given up an average of 39.0 points and 526.0 yards per game in its last three games. It gave up 42 points and 501 yards to the Patriots, 24 points and 438 yards to the Giants, and 51 points and 639 yards to the Steelers in its last three games, respectively. I believe the Jaguars will be able to move the football and put up enough points to stay within the number on Sunday.

Jacksonville is an improved defensive team as well since its first meeting with Indianapolis. It has given up a respectable 340.8 yards per game in its last five games overall. That’s impressive when you consider that it has faced some solid offenses during this stretch in Cleveland, Miami, Cincinnati and Dallas. Andrew Luck isn’t going to have the kind of success he did the first time around, especially with head coach Gus Bradley getting two weeks to prepare.

The Colts also lost a key piece to their offense in running back Ahmad Bradshaw to an ankle injury. This guy is simply irreplaceable as Trent Richardson is only half the back that Bradshaw is. Bradshaw leads the team in rushing with 425 yards and two touchdowns, but he’s an even bigger threat in the passing game. Indeed, he has a sneaky 38 receptions for 300 yards and six touchdowns on the year. Richardson only averages 3.4 yards per carry compared to Bradshaw’s 4.7. Richardson has only caught 22 passes and has yet to score.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (INDIANAPOLIS) – after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a terrible team winning less than 25% of its games playing a team with a winning record are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Jacksonville is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points.  Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) actually find themselves tied for first place in the division despite their 4-6 record, and they even own the tiebreaker over the Saints. Such is life in the NFC South this season, but the Falcons aren’t going to complain. Most 4-6 teams at this point in the season would have little to play for, but that’s not the case here.

The Falcons have scratched, clawed and fought their way back into contention with impressive road wins at Tampa Bay and Carolina the past two weeks. Their solid play here of late even extends back to the game before as they held a 21-0 lead over the Lions in London only to lose on a last-second field goal, 22-21.  The Lions are one of the best teams in the NFC.

The biggest difference for the Falcons during this stretch of solid play is their defense. They have held their last three opponents to an average of just 18.7 points per game. That has helped compliment an offense that remains one of the league’s best. The Falcons are putting up 23.8 points per game while ranking 10th in total offense at 367.3 yards per game.

Cleveland (6-4) is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL this season. It is nowhere near as good as its 6-4 record would indicate, and the numbers show it. The Browns rank just 22nd in the league in total defense, giving up 372.3 yards per game. They also rank 21st in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 16.2 yards per game. Of all the teams that rank below them at 22nd or worse in this department, only the Bengals have a winning record. Cincinnati is also an overrated team.  The Browns have been outgained in four of their last five games, including to Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville.

The Browns gave up 424 total yards to a mediocre Houston offense last week, including 213 rushing without Arian Foster, in their 23-7 loss.  The Browns are just decimated right now in the injury department on defense.  They are already missing defensive end Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes.  Ahtyba Rubin and Billy Winn have been slowed all season by injuries.  Now, they are going to be without their top two linebackers in Karlos Dansby (leading tackler, 73 tackles, 10 for loss, 3 sacks) and Jabaal Sheard (6 TFL, 2 sacks), who each went down with injuries in the loss to Houston.

I know that the Cleveland offense gets back Josh Gordon this week, but that's another reason I believe it is being overvalued here.  Gordon hasn't played all season and I expect him to be a non-factor this week, or at least not as big of a factor as he's getting credit for.  One thing here that gets overlooked is that the Browns have had no running game since center Alex Mack went out with a season-ending injury.  They are averaging just 2.5 yards per carry in Mack's absence.

The Falcons have actually done a decent job of getting to 4-6 this season because they have only played three home games all year compared to seven on the road. They are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan is 38-12 as a starter inside the Georgia Dome for his career. Many folks like to forget how much more dominant he has been at home compared to on the road over his career.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has played six of its 10 games at home thus far, which had aided its 6-4 record.  It is a respectable 2-2 on the road with a good win against Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, but the other three performances leave a lot to be desired.  The Browns lost 6-24 at Jacksonville, came back from 28-3 down to win 29-28 at lowly Tennessee, and came back from 27-3 down to lose 27-30 at Pittsburgh in the opener.

Plays on favorites (ATLANTA) – after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1983. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. The Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Cleveland is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  I look for Ryan and company to win in a shootout.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) actually have a fighting chance to win the NFC South. They are only two games back of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons for first place, who each share identical 4-6 records. Such is life in this weak division, but the Buccaneers certainly have reason to be motivated right now due to their circumstances.

The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, don’t have a whole lot to play for at this point. They are 4-6 on the season and three games back of both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions for first place in the NFC North. Their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. I’m not saying they won’t show up Sunday, but I do expect the Buccaneers to be the more motivated team.

Both head coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown want revenge on their former team. Smith went 81-63 in his nine seasons with the Bears and was fired after failing to make the playoffs in 2012 despite a 10-6 record. McCown went 3-2 as a starter for the Bears last year with 11 touchdowns and only one interception before signing with Tampa Bay this offseason. Look for the Bucs’ players to rally around these two Sunday.

Chicago’s Marc Trestman is squarely on the hot seat. With Smith, Chicago only gave up 19.2 points per game and 40 or more points four times in nine seasons. Under Trestman, the Bears are just 12-14, and they have given up 29.5 points per game while allowing 40 or more a whopping six times. This defense just cannot be trusted, which is why the Bears should not be laying six points to the Bucs this week.

The Bucs have been playing their best football over their last three games. They have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite going 1-2 as they were competitive in losses to the Browns and Falcons. They got back on track last week with a 27-7 win at Washington. McCown threw for 288 yards and two TD passes to rookie Mike Evans. He has thrown for 589 yards and four touchdowns against two picks in two starts since regaining the starting job he lost after suffering a thumb injury.

Tampa Bay has actually played its best football on the road this season.  While it is just 2-3 straight up away from home, it has gone a sensational 4-1 ATS.  Both of its wins came on the road against the Redskins and Steelers.  It also played New Orleans tough in a 31-37 (OT) loss as an 11-point dog and Cleveland tough in a 17-22 loss as a 7-point road dog.

Just having Smith and McCown’s knowledge of Chicago will be a huge asset in preparation this week. McCown can give the Tampa Bay defense the entire Chicago playbook, and you know that Smith will take advantage of it with his defensive expertise. There’s no question that the Bucs will have the edge in preparation because of it.

The last four games between Tampa Bay and Chicago have all been decided by six points or less with two of those going into overtime. In fact, the Buccaneers have not lost by more than six points to Chicago in any of their last six meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time that happened. Dating back further, the Bucs have stayed within six points of the Bears in 17 of their last 18 meetings. That’s a 17-1 system backing the Bucs pertaining to the 6-point spread this week.

Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following a win. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. The Bears are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games. Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans -1

The Houston Texans (5-5) are coming off arguably their best performance of the season. They went into Cleveland and came away with a 23-7 victory last week. It was certainly their best offensive output of their year as they racked up 424 total yards in the win. A whopping 213 of that came on the ground even without Arian Foster, and he is questionable to return this week, so they have shown they can win without him in case he cannot go.

The real difference was the insertion of Ryan Mallett at quarterback over the bye week. Mallett has been biding his time in New England as Tom Brady’s backup, and he finally got his chance. This guy has a rocket of an arm on him and is a clear upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick. Mallett completed 20 of 30 passes for 211 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the win over the Browns, which is no small feat in a tough environment.

Cincinnati is one of the most overrated teams in the league this season. Despite its 6-3-1 record, it is only outscoring teams 22.4 to 22.1 on the year. It is actually getting outgained by an average of 39.4 yards per game, ranking 25th in the league in yardage differential. Every team in the NFL that is ranked 22nd or worse in yardage differential has no better than a .500 record aside from the Bengals, which shows how fortunate they are to have the record that they do at this point in the season.

Houston is actually outscoring teams 22.9 to 20.4 on the season, showing that by score margin alone, it is the better team than Cincinnati. Yet, this line of -1 is saying that the Bengals would be roughly 2-3 points better than the Texans on a neutral field. I’m not buying it, which is why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Texans at home in Week 12. They are in must-win mode right now if they want to make the playoffs, and I love their chances of making a run with Mallett at quarterback and J.J. Watt leading the D.

Houston is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Cincinnati. It has outscored the Bengals 133-65 in the five games, or by an average of 13.6 points per game. It has outgained the Bengals by 222, 40, 127, 176 and 131 yards in its last five meetings, respectively. The Texans simply have the Bengals’ number, and I look for that to continue in 2014.

Houston ranks 3rd in the league in rushing, averaging 144.6 yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season. That makes this a great matchup for the Texans. The Bengals rank 28th in the league against the run, giving up 136.2 yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season. Cincinnati is 21-40 ATS in its last 61 games versus good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game.

Plays on favorites (HOUSTON) – good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against an average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) are 61-33 (64.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) – off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog are 123-75 (62.1%) ATS since 1983. The Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.  Take the Texans Sunday.

15* USC/UCLA ABC Saturday No-Brainer on USC +4

In a game that I fully expect to go right down to the wire, I’ll be taking the USC Trojans as 4-point underdogs over the Bruins. This game could easily be decided by a field goal either way, so I believe there is some value in taking the dog here. The Trojans want revenge from their last two losses to the Bruins. After all, they had won 12 of 13 meetings prior to those two losses.

USC (7-3) has yet to be blown out this season and really could be 10-0 right now. Its three losses have come to Utah (21-24), Arizona State (34-38) and Boston College (31-37) by a combined 13 points. It has gone on the road and beaten Arizona (28-26) and Stanford (13-10), so it has proven it can play well away from home against some of the top competition in the Pac-12.

UCLA may be the most overrated team in the country as it is nowhere near as good as its 8-2 record would indicate. Five of its eight wins have come by eight points or less. Both of its losses have actually come at home this season to the likes of Utah and Oregon. This is a team that is getting a little more respect than it deserves due to its four-game winning streak coming in, two of which came against Colorado and California by a combined five points.

The Trojans are the better defensive team in this one. They are only giving up 23.3 points and 399.2 yards per game this season against opponents that average 31.3 points and 440 yards per game. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points and 410.0 yards per game against opponents that are averaging 33.4 points and 436 yards per game. 

USC may have as much NFL talent on both sides of the ball combined as any team in the country.  They tend to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides as they have a plus-two sack differential on the year.  UCLA, meanwhile, is minus-11 in sack differential on offense and defense.  I look for the Trojans winning the line of scrimmage to be the key in their upset bid this weekend.

Cody Kessler is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does with this USC offense, which is putting up 35.2 points per game on the season. Kessler is completing 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,919 yards and a sensational 29-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Javorius Allen is a beast, rushing for 1,184 yards and eight touchdowns. Nelson Agholor has 82 receptions for 1,079 yards and 10 scores on the season.

UCLA is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. UCLA is 3-7 ATS in all games this season.  The top six teams in the Pac-12, including USC, have a combined conference road record of 19-4.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) were one of the youngest teams in college football coming into the season.  They were also one of the most talented with the recruits that Butch Jones has been stockpiling over the last two years.  Well, that talent is growing up in a hurry, and the Volunteers are arguably the most improved team in the country from the first half to the second half.

They have played one of the toughest schedules in the land as they have had to play four current top-15 teams with three of those on the road.  Yet, they are still outscoring the opposition by an average of 5 points per game.  They have now won their last two games impressively with a 45-42 (OT) win at South Carolina and a 50-16 beat down at home against Kentucky.

The biggest reason for the turnaround by Tennessee has been the insertion of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for 259 yards and four touchdowns, so he's much more of a dual-threat than Justin Worley was.  He led this Tennessee offense to 20 points against Alabama, 45 against South Carolina and 50 against Kentucky in his three starts.

The Vols now have an offense that can complement their defense, which is sensational.  The Vols rank 39th in the country in total defense, giving up 24.1 points and 363.7 yards per game.  They are 4-2 at home this season and giving up just 16.0 points and 389.8 yards per game at home.  That includes a minuscule 4.4 yards per play at home.

Missouri has played a much, much weaker schedule than Tennessee up to this point.  I would argue that the Tigers are the single-most overrated team in the entire country, or at least right up there in the top five due to their laughable 8-2 record.  They hold that record despite only outgaining teams by an average of 14.7 yards per game on the season.

I just do not trust this Missouri offense to do anything against this Tennessee defense.  The Tigers rank 107th in the country in total offense at 355.8 yards per game.  Maty Mauk just isn't a very good quarterback.  He is completing a woeful 53.1 percent of his passes while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Both Missouri and Tennessee have faced the same four opponents in Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina.  Tennessee is outgaining those opponents by 58 yards per game, while Missouri is getting outgained by those same opponents by 92 yards per game.  Keep in mind that Dobbs did not play in either the Florida or the Georgia game, too.

Plays on home favorites (TENNESSEE) - after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games, with 5 defensive starters returning are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vols put up 645 yards on South Carolina and 511 yards on Kentucky with Dobbs at the helm.  He comes through with another strong performance this weekend in a blowout win over the Tigers.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +6

The Miami Hurricanes are in a massive hangover spot here form their 26-30 loss to Florida State last weekend.  That loss eliminated them from Coastal Division Title contention, and now they will fall flat on their faces this week against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia is fresh off a bye and needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible.  So, not only will the Hurricanes come out flat in this game, they'll also be running into a fresh Cavaliers team that is hungry to play in the postseason.  That's not a good combination for Miami backers this week.  Plus, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

The Cavaliers have shown me enough to know that they are better than their 4-6 record would indicate, especially at home.  Earlier this year they nearly upset a top-10 UCLA team, but lost 20-28 due to the Bruins getting three defensive touchdowns.  They did upset top-25 Louisville 23-21.

Virginia has won three of its past four meetings with Miami, and there have been six upsets in the past 10 years in the series.  Last year when these two played, Virginia had a 28-11 first-down edge on the road, and this year's version of the Cavaliers is much better.  They did lose that game 26-45 last year, but it was a complete fluke as they outgained the Hurricanes 483-304 for the game.

Miami has not been nearly as good on the road as it has been at home.  It is just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS with all three of its losses coming by double-digits to Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31).  It has no business laying points on the road to Virginia with those kinds of results.

I love this matchup for Virginia because its strength is stopping the run while Miami's strength is running the football.  The Hurricanes are averaging 197 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry behind Duke Johnson.  Virginia is only giving up 119 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry against opposing offenses that average 174 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

Plays against road favorites (MIAMI) - excellent offensive team (440-Plus YPG) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG), after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games since 1992.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3

What would this line be had Notre Dame (7-3) not self-destructed in losing three of its last four games?  That's an important question I asked myself when looking into this game, and I came up with that they'd be anywhere from a 7-10 point favorite.  That's why I believe there is a ton of value in backing the Fighting Irish only laying a field against Louisville (7-3) Saturday.

Notre Dame could easily be 10-0 right now.  It had a game-winning touchdown called back in a 27-31 loss to Florida State on the road in which it outgained the Seminoles by 147 yards.  It lost at Arizona State despite outgaining the Sun Devils by 75 yards due to committing five turnovers.  It also lost at home to Northwestern last week 40-43 in a game it led 40-29 with only four minutes remaining.

The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is still one of the most talented teams in the country.  I also trust Brian Kelly to get his team refocused as he is one of the best motivators in all of college football.  This is also Senior Day for the Fighting Irish.  That combination of talent and motivation to right the ship and win one for the seniors will have the Fighting Irish putting forth one of their best performances of the season Saturday.

This Notre Dame offense has been dynamite outside of the turnovers, which are correctable.  It is putting up 35.4 points and 465.4 yards per game against teams that only allow 26.1 points and 383 yards per game.  Everett Golson is the real deal, completing 61% of his passes for 3,044 yards with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 342 yards and a team-high eight scores.

I don't think Louisville would stand much of a chance even if starting quarterback Will Gardner was healthy, but now that he is out for the season with a knee injury it has no shot to win this game.  Gardner averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The backup is freshman Reggie Bonnafon, who will make his fourth start of the year but has not impressed me at all.  He is completing just 55.4 percent of his passes, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, and has four touchdowns against one pick.  He did most of his damage against Syracuse, Wake Forest and Boston College.  This Notre Dame defense that is giving up a respectable 382.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play is a different animal.

Notre Dame is a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 75% over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Brian Kelly is 16-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5) are the best team in the country that currently has a .500 record or worse. They have proven capable of playing with anyone and can beat any team on their best day. They are much better than their 5-5 record would indicate, and that has been shown all season as they have taken some of the best teams in the country down to the wire.

The losses to Alabama (13-14) and Mississippi State (10-17) by a combined eight points have proven that they can play with anyone. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings while Mississippi State is No. 4. Finally, the Razorbacks put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak with a dominant 17-0 home victory over LSU last week.

The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 yards of total offense in the win. Sure, this could be a letdown spot for them off such a big victory, but I’m not buying it. That’s because they still need one more win to become bowl eligible, so they will have no problem coming back this week motivated. They don’t want to leave it up to next week, where they’d have to go into Missouri and win to get bowl eligible if they lose to Ole Miss here.

Sure, Ole Miss (8-2) is coming off a bye week, but this team isn’t the same squad that opened 7-0 and was ranked No. 1 in the country. It has lost two of three since with its only victory coming against Presbyterian. It lost 7-10 at LSU and 31-35 at home against Auburn to crush its playoff chances. Now, the Rebels can’t win the SEC, and their two losses will keep them out of the playoffs. They are kind of stuck in la-la land here with not much to play for. They could also be looking ahead to their huge Egg Bowl showdown with Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss has lost arguably its two best players on both sides of the football. On defense, linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche is out for the season with an ankle injury. Offensively, top receiver Laquon Treadwell was lost for the season with a gruesome ankle injury at the end of the Auburn game. Treadwell has a team-high 48 receptions for 632 yards and five touchdowns this year and will be impossible to replace.  Without question, he was their biggest playmaker.

Arkansas boasts one of the best defenses in the country. It is allowing just 22.2 points and 340.6 yards per game this season. What makes that so impressive is that opposing offenses average 31.4 points and 435 yards per game, so they are holding them to 9.2 points and 94 yards per game below their season averages.

The Razorbacks have held Alabama, Mississippi State and LSU to 31 combined points, or an average of 10.3 points per game.  They held Alabama and LSU to a combined 14 points and 350 combined total yards in their two home games.  That’s all you need to know about how good this defense has been and is capable of being.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 yards per attempt or more this season. The Razorbacks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to Arkansas.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +17

The Florida State Seminoles are in a massive letdown spot Saturday against the Boston College Eagles.  They are coming off another miracle win at Miami where they had to come back from 23-7 down to win 30-26.  That was their biggest game of the season, and it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown when they return home this week.

Florida State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country all year.  It is 10-0, but just 3-7 ATS on the season.  Time and time again it is laying too big of spreads that it cannot cover.  Even in the three games they covered, they barely got there.  They covered the spread by a combined 9.5 points in their three covers.

Florida State has only beaten two teams all season by more than 18 points.  Those came against FCS foe The Citadel in a 25-point win as a 56.5-point favorite against against ACC bottom feeder Wake Forest in a 40-point win as a 37-point favorite.

The Seminoles only won by 6 as an 18.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State, by 6 as a 10-point favorite against Clemson, by 15 as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State, by 18 as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse, by 4 as a 9-point favorite against Notre Dame, and by 14 as a 21-point favorite against Virginia in a bevy of games that they did not cover.

Boston College is a sneaky team that has been better than it gets credit for this season.  It is 6-4 on the year with its only losses coming to Pitt, Colorado State, Clemson and Louisville with three of those coming by 10 or fewer points.  It even has a win against USC, which is one of the better teams in the country.

What I like most about this Boston College team is how well it has played on the road this season.  It is a perfect 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS away from home in 2014, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.8 points per game.  The Eagles play tremendous defense as they rank 16th in the country in total defense at 323.5 yards per game.  They give up just 17.2 points and 273.5 yards per game on the road.

Boston College played Florida State tougher than anyone last year outside of Auburn in the National Championship Game.  It only lost 34-48 at home to the Seminoles as a 23.5-point underdog.  The Seminoles even got a Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of the first half to take a 24-17 lead into the break in that game.  The Eagles rushed for 200 yards in the loss, and their ground game should once again be able to control the ball and keep the FSU offense off the field for the majority of this game.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (FLORIDA ST) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (winning at least 80% of their games) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992. Boston College is 37-20 ATS in its last 57 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss.  The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +20

The Marshall Thundering Herd are 10-0 right now and certainly want to finish the season unbeaten.  However, with that 10-0 record comes lofty expectations from the oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to right now.  I believe that is certainly the case this week against a UAB team that will give them a run for their money.

This marks the ninth time this year that the Thundering Herd will be laying at least 20 points.  They have managed to go a sensational 7-2-1 ATS, covering the spread time and time again.  The betting public has been pounding them and continues to do so this week because of it.  That has driven this line way higher than it should be, and there's a ton of value in backing the dog this week.

UAB (5-5) is the single-toughest team that Marshall has played this season.  This is the same Blazers team that put up 34 points and 548 yards on Mississippi State early in the season.  As you know, Mississippi State is currently the No. 4 team in the playoff rankings with its only loss coming by five points at No. 1 Alabama.

The Blazers will come into this game highly motivated to get bowl eligible.  They will also be coming in fresh as they had a bye last week following their 24-40 loss to Louisiana Tech on November 8th.  I believe that loss to the Bulldogs has them undervalued.  LA Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

First-year head coach Bill Clark is one of the most underrated coaches in the land and will eventually land a bigger job elsewhere.  His offense has been explosive this season, putting up 33.5 points and 428.8 yards per game.  The defense has been respectable as well, giving up just 399.5 yards per game.  This team is capable of scoring with Marshall, as evidenced by the 34 points they put up on Mississippi State.

This is the definition of a letdown spot for Marshall as well.  It is coming off its most anticipated game of the season, a win over Rice that was only only a revenge rematch of last year's C-USA Title Game, but also a day when the university had its annual remembrance of the 1970 plane crash.  It also dedicated its new hall of fame.

Not only is UAB coming off an open date, it also will have the support of an active home crowd with the campus rallying in protest over reports that the university may disband the football program.  So, from a motivational standpoint, the Blazers will be the more intense team on Saturday.

Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in two straight games.  The Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  UAB is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take UAB Saturday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE WEEK on Air Force +6

The Air Force Falcons (8-2) have been the surprise of the Mountain West Conference this season. They have won eight games and are right in the thick of the Mountain Division title race. I expect them to continue their solid play in Week 13 as they visit the San Diego Aztecs (5-5), who aren’t nearly as strong as they have been in year’s past.

Air Force has beaten the likes of Boise State, Navy and Nevada this season, so its 8-2 record is no fluke. Its only losses have come on the road at Wyoming and at Utah State, which are two solid football teams. Only once all season has this team lost by more than four points, which came in a 16-34 setback at Utah State on October 11th in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Falcons were only outgained by nine yards in that contest.

Air Force boasts an explosive offense this season that is putting up 33.0 points and 437.6 yards per game. Once again, the ground game has been its bread and butter, averaging 288 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry. However, the difference this season has been the threat of a passing game.

The Falcons are completing 61.0% of their passes and averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. They continually get big plays in the the passing game because opponents sell out to stop the run.  Kale Pearson has taken advantage, throwing for 1,342 yards and 13 touchdowns against two interceptions, which are impressive numbers for a quarterback in the triple-option.

The Falcons are also improved on the other side of the ball, allowing just 23.6 points and 379.9 yards per game. They should be able to hold an SDSU offense in check that has been terrible all year. The Aztecs are only averaging 24.1 points and 387.2 yards per game against opposing defenses that are allowing 33.6 points and 452 yards per game. They are being held to 9.5 points and 65 yards per game below their opponents’ season averages on the season.

San Diego State has not beaten anybody of any relevance. Its five wins have come against the likes of Idaho, Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and Northern Arizona. This could be a big hangover spot for the Aztecs, who fought tough last week but lost 29-38 at Boise State. It’s going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat after a loss to arguably the best team in the Mountain West.

Also, this short week is going to be hard on the Aztecs.  The triple-option is very difficult to prepare for, and that is amplified when a team doesn't have a full week or more to prepare.  The Falcons should be able to have plenty of success on offense against this unprepared SDSU defense.  I look for the Aztecs to miss a lot of assignments, and defenses have no chance against the triple-option when they aren't assignment-sound.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both Air Force and San Diego State have faced the same four teams. Air Force is 4-0 against those teams, outscoring them by an average of 13.0 points per game. San Diego State is just 2-2 against those teams, outscoring them by just 0.5 points per game.  By those numbers alone, it shows that Air Force is essentially 12.5 points better than San Diego State.

This is a huge revenge game for the Falcons as well.  They have lost each of their last four meetings with the Aztecs, including a tough 20-27 home loss last year when they simply weren't that good.  They also lost 9-28 in 2012 despite outgaining the Aztecs 393-268, 27-41 in 2012 while outgaining them 419-410, and 25-27 in 2010 while outgaining them 487-456.  Not only do I expect the Falcons to dominate the box score stats again, I also expect them to come away with the victory this time around, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Plays on a road team (AIR FORCE) – after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season are 142-86 (62.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Falcons are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Aztecs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Diego State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Bet Air Force Friday.

25* Sun Belt GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas State +5

The Texas State Bobcats (5-5) are playing their best football of the season here of late. They have gone a perfect 4-0 against the spread in their last four games overall. This streak started with road wins at Louisiana Monroe (22-18) as a 2.5-point underdog and at New Mexico State (37-29) as a 7-point favorite. However, I have actually been more impressed with the Bobcats’ last two games, which were both losses.

They only lost 25-28 at home to Georgia Southern as a 12-point underdog on November 8th. They actually outgained the Panthers by 171 yards in the game and should have won. That's the same Georgia Southern team that is 7-0 in the Sun Belt with its only losses coming to NC State (by 1), Georgia Tech (by 3) & Navy.  The Bobcats' 20-24 road loss to South Alabama as 6-point dogs last week saw them outgain the Jaguars by 22 total yards for the game.

Texas State will be highly motivated for a win Thursday night. At 5-5 on the season, they need one more win to become bowl eligible.  This will be Senior Night for the Bobcats as well, and they have several senior starters leading the way this season.  Arkansas State, meanwhile, may have a hard time being motivated for this one.

Arkansas State won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title each of the last three years, but it is guaranteed not to win it this year as it is 4-2 within the conference while Georgia Southern is 7-0.  The Red Wolves have already clinched bowl eligibility, so they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way.

While the Bobcats are playing well coming in, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-4) are coming off their worst performance of the season. They lost at home to Appalachian State 32-37 last week despite being 15-point favorites. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate, either. The Red Wolves were actually outgained by the Mountaineers 314-549 for the game, or by 235 total yards. Appalachian State led this game 37-20 before Arkansas State scored 12 points over the final 2:17 of the game in garbage time.

Texas State’s strength offensively is a rushing attack that is average 215 yards per game and 4.9 per carry. It does have a lot of balance through, averaging 225 yards per game through the air on 64.0 percent completions as well. The weakness of the Arkansas State defense is against the run as it is allowing 175 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. That makes this a great matchup for the Texas State offense.

Arkansas State is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons. Texas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bobcats.  Bet Texas State Thursday.

20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +7.5

Any time you’re backing the team with the worst record in the NFL this late in the season, there’s going to be some value. I certainly believe that is the case Thursday with the Oakland Raiders (0-10), who are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. They would love nothing more than to get it against one of their most hated rivals in the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3).

The Raiders have been fighting hard for weeks now, but they continually come up short. By their results, they clearly have not packed it in. Five of their last six losses have come by 11 points or less, and all six were against playoff contenders in San Diego (twice), Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle and Denver. This brutal schedule will have them battle-tested heading into this game with the Chiefs.

Kansas City is in a massive letdown AND lookahead spot here. It just beat the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday, and now it has Denver on deck at home next week with first place in the AFC West on the line.  They will have a hard time getting up emotionally for the Raiders enough to win this game by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover the spread.

The Chiefs are also way overvalued here because they have covered the spread in five consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and so have the oddsmakers, forcing them to inflate this line above the key number of seven.  Any time you get a home underdog in the NFL catching more than a touchdown, there's going to be some value.  That's especially the case in division rivalry games that are played much closer to the vest.  Most of the time, records can be thrown out the window in these games.

Oakland has gone 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight meetings with Kansas City over the past four seasons. In fact, the Raiders have outgained the Chiefs in seven of their last eight meetings. Sure, the Chiefs swept the season series last year, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. The Raiders outgained the Chiefs 274-216 in their 24-7 road loss. They also outgained the Chiefs 461-384 in their 31-56 home loss.

Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on any team (OAKLAND) – after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 99-57 (63.5%) ATS since 1983. Kansas City is 8-26 ATS in its last 34 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in its previous game.  Roll with the Raiders Thursday.

15* UNC/Duke ACC ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

This marks the second straight year that the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-5) have finished strong at the end of the season. They won six of their final seven games last year, and they have won three of their past four heading into this game with the Duke Blue Devils (8-2). They still need one more win to become bowl eligible, and after fighting back to get to this point, they aren’t about to give in now.

The Tar Heels have beaten Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh at home, while also topping Virginia on the road for their three wins in their last four games. Their only loss during this stretch came at Miami, which nearly upset Florida State at home last week. In fact, their solid play stretches back to a 43-50 road loss at Notre Dame as 16.5-point underdogs five games ago. They have covered four of their last five against the spread.

UNC boasts an explosive offense that gives it a chance to win every game it is in. It is putting up 35.9 points and 430.0 yards per game this season. Marquise Williams is one of the better quarterbacks in the country. The junior is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Williams also leads the team in rushing with 623 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

North Carolina has won 21 of its last 24 meetings with Duke. Sure, it has lost the last two, but those two losses came by a combined five points. The Blue Devils won 33-30 at home in 2012 and 27-25 on the road in 2013. I fully expect this game to go right down to the wire as well, meaning there is a ton of value in backing the road underdog Tar Heels catching six points, though I expect them to win this game outright.

Duke is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year, just as it was last season. It has been living off of close wins over the past two seasons. In fact, it has won a combined seven games by a touchdown or less over the last two years. It is only outgaining teams 396.1 to 389.7 on the season in 2014, which isn’t what you would expect from an 8-2 team. It is overvalued because of its 8-2 record, though.

UNC is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. David Cutcliffe is 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play in all games he has coached. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  Take North Carolina Thursday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +7

The UMass Minutemen are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  They are much better than their 3-7 record would indicate, and they have proven that of late by winning three of their last four games overall.  They come into this game against Akron with a ton of confidence as a result.

UMass should be 5-5 at worst had it gotten some better fortune in close games this year.  Indeed, five of its seven losses have come by a touchdown or less.  That includes home losses to Bowling Green (42-47) and Colorado (38-41), as well as road losses to Vanderbilt (31-34), Miami Ohio (41-42) and Toledo (35-42).

Just the fact that UMass has been able to go toe-for-toe with the likes of Bowling Green, Colorado, Vanderbilt and Toledo shows what it is capable of.  Its solid play this year has finally paid off with some results.  It has won three of its last four in blowout fashion over Kent State (40-17), Eastern Michigan (36-14) and Ball State (24-10) with its only loss coming by a touchdown at Toledo during this stretch.

The Minutemen are actually outgaining opponents on the season despite their 3-7 record, which is clearly the sign of a good team.  They have done so behind a high-powered offense that is averaging 30.1 points and 448.7 yards per game.  They have put up 480 or more total yards in six straight games, including 554-plus in four of those.

Blake Frohnapfel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as well.  He is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year.  Tajae Sharpe is probably the best receiver in the MAC, catching 76 balls for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns to this point.

I realize that Frohnapfel (bone bruise) is questionable to play Tuesday, and this would be an even stronger play if he was for sure starting, but I still like UMass to cover the touchdown even if he doesn't go.  The backup is former Penn State transfer Austin Whipple, who is also the coach's son and a heck of a talent.

Akron is in a downward spiral, and I don't see it turning things around tonight.  It is 0-4 in its last four games overall to completely play itself out of the MAC Title race and likely out of a bowl bid.  After losing 10-27 to Bowling Green at home two weeks ago, the Zips went on the road and were pummeled by a terrible Buffalo team 24-55 last week.

The Zips have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games coming in, going 0-6 ATS.  Yet, week after week, they continue to get too much respect from the books.  They only managed 229 total yards against an awful Buffalo defense last week, while they gave up 536 total yards to the Bulls in an absolute laugher.

UMass has played Akron extremely tough the last two years, and this 2014 UMass team is much better than the last two versions.  The Minutemen actually went on the road in 2012 and won 22-14 as 14.5-point underdogs to the Zips.  They also covered last year in their tough 13-14 home loss to Akron as 7-point dogs.  I fully expect the Minutemen to not only stay within a touchdown of the Zips, but to also win this game outright.

The Zips are 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 conference games.  The Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Akron is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Zips are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Minutemen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.  These last four trends combine for a 26-0 system backing the Minutemen.  Bet UMass Tuesday.

20* Steelers/Titans AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) got the wake-up call they needed last week on a 20-13 road loss to the Jets. That will help them avoid a letdown this week against the Titans knowing that they need a win if they want to win the AFC North division. They cannot afford to lose to teams like this if they are going to make the playoffs, and I fully expect them to bounce back and win by a touchdown or more. They will also be extra motivated to lay it all on the line knowing that their bye is next week.

Pittsburgh was playing some great football prior to that loss to the Jets. It had beaten Houston (30-23), Indianapolis (51-34) and Baltimore (43-23) in impressive efforts by the offense the previous three weeks. The loss to the Jets was a complete fluke as they actually outgained them 362-275 for the game, but they committed four turnovers to gift-wrap the win to New York. They will be much sharper with the football this week against Tennessee because of it.

The Titans are abysmal this year. They have gone through three different starting quarterbacks because the offense just hasn’t been able to get anything going. They played well in their opener against Kansas City, but haven’t played well since. Their only other win was a 16-14 home victory over the hapless Jaguars, and they were even outgained by 89 yards in that game.

Five of the Titans’ seven losses have come by 14 points or more, so they have been prone to the blowout regularly. They have actually been outgained by 50 or more yards in each of their last six games, and by 102 or more yards in three of those. They rank 31st in the league in total offense, averaging just 308.7 yards per game. They stand at 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 60.0 yards per game on the season.

Tennessee (2-7) won’t be able to keep up with a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 4th in the NFL at 408.4 yards per game. The Steelers have been better defensively, too, giving up 347.0 yards per game compared to the 368.7 yards per game the Titans have allow. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining the opposition by an average of 61.4 yards per game on the season.

Rookie Zach Mettengerger has played OK in his two starts for the Titans, but he has not done anything special and will struggle against Dick LeBeau's complicated blitz schemes in this one.  In fact, the Steelers are 18-2 against rookie signla-callers since LeBeau returned as defensive coordinator in 2004.

Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-29 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Tennessee is 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. The Titans are 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Tennessee is 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 home games. The Titans are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 3-12-2 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Steelers Monday.

15* Lions/Cardinals Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions +1

The Arizona Cardinals can survive without Carson Palmer. However, they clearly aren’t going to be as strong of a team without him, and Drew Stanton has struggled in limited action this year. He has gone 2-1 as a starter without Palmer, but the two wins came against the likes of the Texans and Giants, while the other was a blowout loss to the Broncos. Stanton is completing just 49.5% of his passes on the season compared to Palmer’s 62.9%.

This Arizona team is one of the most overrated in the league. It got two defensive touchdowns late last week to get the win and cover against the Rams, and it has been getting lucky breaks like that all year. They are +12 in turnover differential on the season, which is tied for first in the NFL.  Regression to the mean is going to happen at some point for this team.  A closer look into the numbers shows that the Cardinals are nowhere near as good as their record would indicate.

The Cardinals rank just 24th in the league in total offense at 330.9 yards per game. They rank 15th in total defense at 352.8 yards per game and have been nowhere near as dominant as they get credit for on that side of the ball. They rank 21st in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 21.9 yards per game. They have been outgained by over 200 yards on the season.  Only one team (Cincinnati) ranked worse than them in yardage differential even has a .500 record or better, so they are in some pretty bad company.

Detroit, meanwhile, is the real deal this season. It has managed to go 7-2 despite playing without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for a good portion of the season. Johnson returned last week as the Lions beat the Dolphins 20-16 in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. The Lions outgained the Dolphins 351-228 for the game, but they had a field goal blocked that was returned to their 3-yard line to set up Miami’s only touchdown. Otherwise, that game was a complete rout in the Lions' favor.

The reason the Lions have been able to play well without Johnson and Bush for stretches is because of their defense. Indeed, they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense AND total defense, giving up just 15.8 points and 283.4 yards per game. They are also 6th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 56.7 yards per game. You have to really look out for this team now that Johnson is back because the offense had underachieved up to this point, but it has the talent to be one of the best units in the NFL.

Arizona is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games since 1992. Detroit is 38-21 ATS in its last 59 versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or more rushing yards per game. Arizona has been good against the run but terrible against the pass (30th), giving up 274 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt through the air. That plays right into the Lions hands as they rely a lot more on the pass than the run to move the football.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Atlanta Falcons -1

The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) are still very much alive in the NFC South race. They are just one game behind the Saints (4-5) for first place in the division, and they own the tiebreaker as well after beating New Orleans at home back in Week 1. That’s why motivation will not be a factor for this team, which has to have a lot of confidence that it can go on the road and win again after beating the Bucs 27-17 last week.

It was the second straight solid performance for the Falcons away from home. They had gone over to London in their previous game and should have beaten the Detroit Lions, but they let a 21-0 lead get away from them and lost 21-22. That narrow loss to the Lions doesn’t look bad at all considering Detroit is 7-2 on the season and one of the best teams in the NFC.

Carolina is far from the team it was a year ago. It has all kinds of problems on both sides of the football. It has only won one of its last eight games overall. The Panthers have been blown out repeatedly during this stretch, losing to the likes of Pittsburgh (19-37) by 18, Baltimore (10-38) by 28, Green Bay (17-38) by 21, New Orleans (10-28) by 18, and Philadelphia (21-45) by 24. They will now be working on a short week as well after losing to the Eagles on Monday Night Football.

There is nothing to like about the Panthers on either side of the football. They rank 25th in the league in total offense at 320.8 yards per game, and 25th in total defense at 376.8 yards per game. That leaves them at 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 56.0 yards per game.

The Panthers have actually been outgained in nine straight games since their opener against Tampa Bay. They have also been outscored by 8.3 points per game on the season as they are yielding 28.1 per game defensively and scoring 19.8 per game on offense.  They have allowed 24 or more points in seven of their last eight games while yielding an average of 32.5 points per game during this stretch.

Admittedly, the Falcons don’t have a very good defense, but they have played better on this side of the football in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of 19.5 points per game in their last two, so they have shown some progress on defense of late unlike the Panthers, who just seem to get worse each week.

What makes the Falcons the play this week is their offense, which has produced 24.3 points and 369.7 yards per game to rank 8th in the NFL in total offense. It’s been nice to see what Matt Ryan can do when he has a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White at his disposal.  The Atlanta offense will be the difference in this one as it will consistently put up points on this weak Carolina defense.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) – after having lost six or seven out of their last eight games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Saints -7

I simply trust the New Orleans Saints more than the Cincinnati Bengals right now. They have done an excellent job of fighting back from a 2-4 start to win two of their last three games with their only loss coming in overtime to the 49ers. They blew out both the Packers (44-23) at home and the Panthers (28-10) on the road, and they are fully capable of doing the same to the Bengals this week.

One thing that really stands out about that loss to the 49ers last week is that they simply gave it away by committing three turnovers. They actually outgained the 49ers 423-330 for the game, or by 93 total yards. They obviously should have won, but the fact that they didn’t has made this line smaller than it should be.

I really do not trust the Bengals to perform well right now. They have gone just 2-3-1 in their last four games overall with all three losses coming via blowout against New England (17-43), Indianapolis (0-27) and Cleveland (3-24). The loss to the Browns last week was the most troubling because they were dominated so handily. The Browns actually outgained them 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards, in their 24-3 win in Cincinnati.

That’s right, the Cincinnati offense was held to just 165 total yards against the Browns. It also committed four turnovers in the loss. Andy Dalton was abysmal, completing just 10 of 33 passes for 86 yards with three interceptions. I don’t believe he can match Drew Brees score for score in this one, which is what it’s going to take for the Bengals to stay within a touchdown. I’ll gladly bet against Dalton with the way he has been playing of late.

Brees is hitting on all cylinders again this season. He leads a New Orleans unit that is putting up 27.9 points per game while ranking 2nd in the league in total offense at 435.0 yards per game. He should have his way with a Cincinnati defense that ranks 30th in the league in giving up 391.9 yards per game. So, the entire problem isn’t all on Dalton’s shoulders because the defense has been atrocious as well.

With Sean Payton at the helm, the Saints have been unbeatable at home. They are a combined 11-1 at home over the past two seasons. Under Payton, the Saints are a ridiculous 19-2-1 ATS in their last 22 home game. It's also worth noting that the Saints haven't lost back-to-back home games since 2009.  This is probably the toughest place to play in the NFL, and it will be another rowdy atmosphere Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division opponent. The Bengals are 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss by 21 points or more. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less. It is coming back to win by an average of 19.0 points per game in this spot. Cincinnati is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Road teams are 7-21 ATS in the last 28 games involving the Bengals.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Broncos -9

This game really has blowout written all over it. Simply put, the St. Louis Rams (3-6) aren’t going to be able to score enough points to keep up with Denver’s high-powered offense in this one. Peyton Manning will love the opportunity to go back indoors and play in a dome just like he used to in his Indianapolis days. He should thrive against the hapless Rams inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.

Manning leads a Denver unit that is putting up 31.8 points and 414.7 yards per game on the season to rank 3rd in the league in total offense. That is really impressive when you consider that it has faced a very tough schedule up to this point. It has already had two play two of the league’s top three defenses in San Francisco and Seattle, and it put up an average of 31.0 points per game against those two teams.

Many will hang onto St. Louis’ recent wins over San Francisco and Seattle as a barometer of what it is capable of. However, the Rams should have lost both of those games as they were outgained by 188 yards by the Seahawks and 70 yards by the 49ers. They have actually actually been outgained by 70 or more yards in five straight games, which includes blowout losses to the Cardinals (14-31), Chiefs (7-34) and 49ers (17-31) during this stretch.

Opposing defensive coordinators now have no problem stopping the Rams’ offense. They have caught on to Austin Davis’ tendencies, but the fact of the matter is that he simply doesn’t have much talent around him.  The Rams are expected to give the ball to Shaun Hill for this one, and the results are going to be the same or even worse.  Davis actually did a pretty good job of working with what he had, which isn't much.

The Rams rank 30th in the NFL in total offense at 310.2 yards per game.  They have scored 11.3 points per game while averaging 212.3 yards per game in their last three.  They have played five straight physical games against San Francisco (twice), Seattle, Kansas City and Arizona.  They don't have a whole lot left in the tank at this point, especially considering they have little to play for the rest of the way.

As stated before, they simply do not have the firepower on the offensive side of the ball to match the Broncos score for score and to stay within single-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread. A contributing factor to that will be this improved Denver stop unit. The Broncos are only giving up 314.1 yards per game this season to rank 5th in the NFL in total defense. Unlike last year, they have been dominant on both sides of the football in 2014.

The Broncos are 22-6 in their last 28 games overall with 21 of those victories coming by a touchdown or more. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. It is beating these teams by an average of 23.0 points per game. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game. Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle +1.5

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the defending champs as an underdog. Seattle is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games as a dog.  I believe you should take advantage almost any chance you get, especially this week against the overmatched Chiefs. The Seahawks obviously haven’t played up to their potential to this point, but that is the reason they are undervalued. They have still won three in a row coming in, and their numbers are just as good as they were last year.

Seattle put up 510 total yards on the Giants last week and I would argue that the offense is more explosive than it was a year ago. That has been proven in the numbers as the Seahawks rank 10th in the league in total offense this year at 365.3 yards per game. They have put up an average of 26.7 points per game as well. Russell Wilson continues to show why he is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league with what he can do with his arm and his legs.

The Seahawks have had a banged-up offensive line all season.  They finally are getting healthy as both tackle Russell Okung and center Max Unger have returned to the lineup.  Marshawn Lynch has been his same old dominant self as a result.  Lynch rushed for 140 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants last week as the Seahawks racked up 350 yards on the ground as a team.

While the Seahawks aren’t No. 1 in the NFL in total defense like they were a year ago, they are still damn close and have an elite stop unit. They are only giving up 21.2 points per game and 306.7 yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense. They rank 5th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining opponents by an average of 58.3 yards per game. Keep in mind that they have also faced a brutal schedule up to this point, which is always the case for the defending champs.

Kansas City has done a nice job of fighting back from an 0-2 hole to win six of its last seven games overall. However, that winning streak is the reason I believe it is overvalued here. All six of those wins outside of St. Louis, which is one of the worst teams in the NFC, came against AFC opponents. Seattle will be the best team that the Chiefs have faced this year, aside from perhaps the Broncos, which was one of their three losses.

Last week, the Chiefs were dominated in the box score by the Bills, getting outgained 278-364 for the game, but they managed to erase a 13-3 deficit to win 17-13. They were aided by three turnovers from the Bills. They won’t be given those same gifts this week, and when they get dominated in the box score by the Seahawks, they will lose like they should.

Kansas City ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 332.0 yards per game. Alex Smith remains a dink-and-dunk passer, and that is not going to work against this physical Seattle defense. Smith is going to be forced to try to make some plays over the top, and I don’t believe he is capable of doing so. He also lacks the weapons to do it.  In fact, the Chiefs have not had a touchdown by a wide receiver all season.  That is absolutely pathetic and prevents the Chiefs from being among the elite teams in the league.

Smith is a good game manager, but when they need him to really step up and make plays against elite defenses like Seattle, he simply isn’t equipped to do it. A good example of that came back on October 5th against the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 2nd in the league in total defense. The Chiefs managed just 17 points and 265 total yards in that game, including just 175 passing. Smith didn’t make enough plays against the 49ers to win, and he won’t this week, either.

Seattle is a sensational 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons & 15-2 ATS as a dog in its last 17 overall. The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seattle is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Chiefs are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* Arizona State/Oregon State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +8

The Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) are way overvalued right now due to their five straight victories and No. 6 playoff ranking heading into this showdown with Oregon State. They are also in a bit of a letdown spot here off their huge win over Notre Dame last week in which the Fighting Irish simply handed them the win. They committed five turnovers and did not win despite gaining 487 total yards.

The Beavers certainly want to make a bowl game and will be fighting the rest of the way for two wins in their final three games to try and get to one. They are undervalued right now after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. That’s why they are catching 9.5 points at home against the Sun Devils this week. Asking ASU to go on the road and beat the Beavers by double-digits to cover this spread is asking too much.

ASU is extremely fortunate to be 8-1 this season. It has numerous close wins this year, including a 3-point win over Utah and a 4-point win over USC thanks to a hail mary on the final play of the game. The Sun Devils have only outgained one of their last seven opponents by more than 68 yards, yet they have gone 6-1 during this stretch.

The Sun Devils are winning the turnover battle of late as they are +6 in their last five games, which has been the difference. You can’t count on turnovers when predicting outcomes of games.  They got 28 points off of turnovers last week against Notre Dame, and have received multiple turnovers in three of their last four games. 

The Beavers have been very good with the ball this season, committing just five turnovers in six Pac-12 games.  Look for that trend to continue and for Mike Riley's team to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset because they are not going to give the game to ASU like so many teams have before them.

The weakness of the Arizona State defense is clearly against the pass. It gave up 355 passing yards in its 27-62 home loss to UCLA back on September 25th. It allowed 313 to Colorado, 273 to USC and 446 to Notre Dame as well. The strength of the Oregon State offense is its passing game. It is averaging 280 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt. I look for its offense to move the football at will through the air against this ASU defense.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team has won four straight and seven of the last eight meetings between Arizona State and Oregon State. The Beavers have won each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils in Corvallis. That’s why the home team has been favored in each of the last eight meetings because home field means so much. Getting the Beavers as a big home dog here certainly shows that there is value in backing them given this recent history of home dominance.

Oregon State is 25-8 ATS in its last 33 games following two or more consecutive overs. The Beavers are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games off two straight losses to conference opponents. Oregon State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games since 1992.  It is coming back to win 31.6 to 21.9 in this spot. Mike Riley is 9-2 ATS off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite as the coach of Oregon State. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

15* Florida State/Miami ACC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -2.5

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the defending champion Florida State Seminoles (9-0) at this short of a price. I believe it would be wise to take advantage and side with the defending champs, who just seem to have a will to win no matter the situation. They may not have been completely focused this season up to this point, but the fact of the matter is that they are 9-0. The Hurricanes will certainly have their full attention this week.

Because Florida State has gone just 2-7 ATS in its nine games this year, the betting public actually has wanted to stay away from them in recent weeks. They obviously came into 2014 with the kind of lofty expectations that were simply impossible to live up to considering their schedule got much tougher this year. I also believe that this poor ATS record is why we are getting the opportunity to back the Seminoles at such a great price this week.

While Miami is a quality team and improved over a year ago, I still don’t believe it has what it takes to pull off this caliber of upset. Its six wins this season have come against the likes of UNC, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Duke, Arkansas State and Florida A&M. I wouldn’t say any of those six teams are quality opponents. The Hurricanes’ three losses have come against their toughest three opponents in Georgia Tech (17-28), Nebraska (31-41) and Louisville (13-31) all by double-digits.

Florida State has played the tougher schedule this year, beating the likes of Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson (without Winston) and Oklahoma State. It has put up 31 or more points in every game this year aside from that Clemson game, which Winston didn't play in. It is averaging 37.9 points per game on the season. Winston just has a knack for playing his best football when the game is in the balance, so if this one goes down to the wire, my money is on him rather than Miami freshman Brad Kaaya.

The Hurricanes figure to rely a lot on running back Duke Johnson in this one. Well, the Seminoles have proven more than capable of stopping the run. They are giving up 135.7 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. I look for their focus to be on shutting Johnson down and making Kaaya try and beat them, which I don’t think the freshman is capable of doing.

The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. FSU beat Miami 41-14 last year for its fourth straight victory in this series. It outgained the Hurricanes 517-275 for the game.  After dropping from No. 2 to No. 3 in the playoff rankings, look for the Seminoles to play an inspired football game against Miami because of it.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas PK

The LSU Tigers (7-3) are in an absolutely terrible spot here. They are emotionally deflated from their loss to the Crimson Tide in overtime last week. That was their “Game of the Year”, so to speak, and it will be impossible for them to get back up off the mat and bring their best effort against the Razorbacks this week.

The Tigers are going to need their best to beat this improved Arkansas squad, and they just won't have it this weekend.  That was a physically draining game against the Crimson Tide last week, and now they'll be up against another physical football team that loves to pound the rock and beat up opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.

Yes, Arkansas has not won an SEC game over the past two seasons, but that is no indication of what kind of team this is. It has simply been on the wrong end of many close games against the top teams in the SEC. That includes losses to Mississippi State (10-17) and Alabama (13-14) by a combined eight points, which are two of the top five teams in the country right now. They also lost to Texas A&M (28-35) in overtime.  If they can play with those three teams, they can certainly beat LSU at home.

The Tigers have lost three games this year despite playing a home-heavy schedule with only two true road games this year. They have not played well in those road games, either, losing at Auburn 7-41 and beating a down Florida team 30-27. I just don’t trust them on the road in this spot with the hangover effect from the Alabama game proving to be too much for them to overcome.

Arkansas also wants revenge from a brutal last-second loss to LSU last year. It went into Death Valley and had a 27-24 lead late as a 28-point underdog. The Tigers would get a 99-yard drive that culminated in a 49-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Jennings to Travin Dural with only 1:15 remaining to escape with a victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Razorbacks also need another two wins to become bowl eligible, and this is one that they must get.  They will be motivated as well to put an end to their 17-game SEC losing streak.  It will be a rowdy atmosphere in Fayetteville as this will be a night game.  Temperatures are expected to be around 38 degrees, so don't expect LSU to be thrilled about going to play in a physical, cold weather game either.

LSU almost exclusively relies on the run this season. It is averaging 221 rushing yards per game to just 177 passing yards per contest. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Razorbacks. They are giving up just 137 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against teams that average 203 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  So, they are holding the opposition to 66 yards per game less than their season averages.

They held Alabama to just 66 rushing yards on 32 carries, Northern Illinois to 123 yards on 32 carries, and Mississippi State to 128 yards on 35 carries, which are three powerful running teams.  Those numbers really stood out to me because if they can stop those three teams' running games, they can certainly stop LSU's rushing attack.

Les Miles is 7-27 ATS off a two-game home stand as the coach of LSU. Miles is 12-27 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of LSU. Arkansas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record.

Finally, the Razorbacks have had two weeks of rest heading into this one after last playing on November 1st. Pretty much every situational factor is in their favor in this one, and I'm not so certain that they aren't the better team as it is.  This is certainly a great matchup for them as well.  That's why they have earned the status as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.