Winning Sports Picks

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks played in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West.  As a result, they played the 26th-toughest schedule in the country this season and managed to go 7-5.  They only had one bad loss all season as they only lost once as a favorite, which was a 24-28 loss at Missouri in the finale in a game the Tigers were treating as their Super Bowl.  And they never should have lost as they blew a 24-7 lead and outgained the Tigers by 104 yards.

I think that loss will have the Razorbacks motivated heading into this bowl game.  It also has them undervalued as they are catching a full touchdown here to Virginia Tech.  This has been a very resilient Arkansas team all season as they are a perfect 4-0 straight up in their last four games following a defeat, not once losing two games in a row all season.

“I think they’ll be very eager,” coach Bret Bielema, whose team will be facing the Hokies for the first time in school history, told reporters. “We’d like to play one this week to get that taste out of your mouth. Our guys will handle it the right way. We’ve got a good group of seniors.”

Bielema certainly knows how to get his guys ready for bowl games.  He has led the Razorbacks to blowout victories each of the past two years in bowl games.  They routed Texas 31-7 as 7-point favorites in 2014, and buried Kansas State 45-23 as 13-point favorites in 2015.  And I love getting Bielema in the underdog role as he is 13-5-1 ATS in his last 19 tries.

Austin Allen might be the best quarterback in the SEC.  He completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,152 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  His 23 touchdowns were the second-most in the conference.  The Razorbacks can still run the football this season behind Rawleigh Williams (1,326 yards, 12 TD, 5.7/carry), who is primed for a big game here.

Virginia Tech comes in overvalued after winning the down Coastal Division and only losing to Clemson by a touchdown in the ACC Championship Game.  However, the Hokies were down 21 late in that game, so it wasn't as close as the final score.  That was a deflating loss to the Hokies and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  They certainly won't be as up for this game as they were to play Clemson.

The Hokies only played the 51st-toughest schedule this season. And we saw what happened when they faced an SEC team earlier this year, losing 24-45 to Tennessee on a neutral field.  The reason the Razorbacks should have a big day on the ground is because the Hokies have been susceptible to the run.  They gave up 239 rushing yards to Tennessee, 227 to Duke, 309 to Georgia Tech and 200 to Notre Dame.  Williams is primed for his 8th 100-yard rushing effort of the season.

Arkansas is 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest over the last three seasons, winning by 15.1 points per game on average in this spot.  The Razorbacks crushed Florida 31-10 as 3-point dogs following their bye earlier this season.  Arkansas is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Virginia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Arkansas in the Belk Bowl.

15* USF/South Carolina Birmingham Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +10.5

I question how motivated South Florida will be in this game. They just lost their head coach Willie Taggart to Oregon, and none of the current coaches on the staff are likely to stick around as Charlie Strong has been hired. The interim will be T.J. Weist, and David Reaves will serve as offensive coordinator.

The reason the loss of Taggart is so big is because he was also the guy who called the plays for the Bulls. This offense will still have firepower, but I just don’t think that South Florida will be hitting on all cylinders without Taggart calling the shots. It’s a situation I think we can profit from by fading the Bulls as they are being asked to lay double-digits here to an SEC team.

And that’s another key. South Carolina obviously played a much tougher schedule (56th) than South Florida (78th) this season because it plays in the SEC. And the Gamecocks showed very well in Will Muschamp’s first season. They’ll benefit from these extra bowl practices and should be excited to be playing in a bowl for the 12th time in 13 seasons because they didn’t get to go bowling last year. And this is a very young team that will relish the opportunity.

South Carolina was actually able to win three SEC games this year, including a 13-10 win at Vanderbilt as 5-point dogs, and a 24-21 home victory over Tennessee as 15-point dogs. To hold that high-powered Tennessee offense to just 21 points really says a lot about how good this Muschamp defense is. The Vols only managed 297 total yards in defeat.

Muschamp will come up with a game plan to slow down the high-powered attack of USF as well. The Bulls were used to playing some very poor defenses in the AAC, and I would argue that they haven’t faced a defense as good as the one they will be up against in the Birmingham Bowl. The Gamecocks only allow 24.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play on the season despite facing a much more difficult schedule. They rank 10th nationally in takeaways with 25, and they have only allowed 28 touchdowns in 49 trips to the red zone by their opponents.

Freshman QB Jake Bentley improved as the season went on once he took over. He completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,030 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He should be in line for his best game of the season against a USF defense that was atrocious all season. The Bulls gave up 31.0 points per game, 482 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season. They have allowed at least 500 yards in four of their last five games.

The Gamecocks have won each of their last four bowl games, which is the second-longest active winning streak in the country. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

15* WVU/Miami Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3

I think the Hurricanes are the happier team to be here. The Mountaineers had a chance to win the Big 12 down the stretch and lost out on a better bowl when they lost to Oklahoma. They proceeded to beat Iowa State and Baylor, but they didn’t play well in either of those games.

They only outgained Iowa State by 52 yards and they were outgained by Baylor by 18 yards in a narrow 24-21 win as 17-point favorites. I think the Mountaineers continue sleep-walking into their bowl game. They already have their 10 wins, so their season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  And their 10-2 record is skewed because they only beat two teams with winning records, BYU and Kansas State, by a combined four points.

Miami clearly wants to be here and will have a pep in its step in its first set of bowl practices under head coach Mark Richt. The Hurricanes won their final four games to close out the season in blowout fashion, going 4-0 ATS in the process. They beat Pitt by 23 at home, Virginia by 20 on the road, NC State by 14 on the road and Duke by 19 at home. They outgained their last four opponents by a combined 537 yards in the process. They clearly come in playing their best football of the season.

Adding to Miami’s motivation is the fact that it hasn’t won a bowl game in a decade, losing six straight with its last win coming in 2006. The Hurricanes will also be looking to build momentum for the future as they look to regain their past glory under Richt, a former Hurricanes quarterback.

Statistically, these teams are pretty even on both sides of the ball, so I think it does come down to motivation. It also helps that Miami will have a home-field edge with this game being played in Orlando. Also, the Hurricanes have a big edge on special teams.

Miami kicker Michael Badgley went 10-of-11 on field goals of 40 or more yards this season. WVU kicker Mike Molina made only 2-of-5 from 40 yards or more. Miami punter Justin Vogel averaged 44.2 yards on 57 punts with 23 punts inside the 20 and only one touchback. WVU punter Billy Kinney averaged 41.4 yards on 51 punts with 14 inside the 20 and five touchbacks.

West Virginia is 6-15 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. The Mountaineers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games on a neutral field. West Virginia is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 vs. ACC opponents. Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season. West Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  Take Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl Wednesday.

20* Temple/Wake Forest Military Bowl No-Brainer on Wake Forest +12

There are a ton of factors working in Wake Forest's favor coming into this bowl game.  I think there's a ton of value in backing them as 12-point underdogs here in the Military Bowl.  In fact, it's probably one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.

For starters, the Demon Deacons are going to be extremely excited to be here.  They haven't been to a bowl game since 2011.  When they clinched their bowl berth in a win over Virginia in their ninth game of the season, they didn't exactly play well down the stretch in losing their final three games of the season.  But I think that also has them undervalued as they come in on a 3-game losing streak.

When you look at the teams they faced down the stretch, it's easy to see why they lost three straight.  They lost 12-44 against Louisville, but covered as 34-point dogs.  And that game was way closer than the final score as the Demon Deacons actually led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 34-0 in a fluky final period.

The Demon Deacons also lost 13-35 at home to Clemson, covering as 23.5-point dogs though.  And they lost 14-17 at home to Boston College in the season finale.  But the Eagles had more to play for in that game as they were looking for their 6th win and bowl eligibility.  But the Demon Deacons should have won that game as they outgained the Eagles by 120 yards and held them to just 167 yards of total offense.

Temple does not want to be here.  Their reward for winning the AAC Championship over Navy? How about a repeat trip to Annapolis, Maryland to face a 6-6 Wake Forest team.  That's right, the AAC title game was also played in Annapolis.  This isn't exactly the most exciting city for a college kid to visit, especially for a second time in as many games.

The Owls also lost their head coach in Matt Rhule to Baylor.  We saw how that worked out for Houston already this bowl season after losing Tom Herman.  The interim coach is Ed Foley, who is the special teams and tight ends coach.  The Owls will be moving on to Geoff Collins next season, who was the defensive coordinator at Florida this season.  This is a huge distraction for these players, especially the non-seniors who will be coming back next year.  Rhule was certainly beloved with what he was able to do with this program.

Another reason I like fading Temple here is because the betting public has been all over them, and they've been rewarded.  In fact, the Owls have the best ATS record in the nation at 12-1.  They have covered in 12 straight games since a loss to Army in the opener.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for that, knowing that the public is going to continue riding Temple in this game.

Points are going to be at a premium in this game.  That's evident with a total set of 40.5 points.  That favors the underdog as both of these teams have great defenses.  Wake Forest will be able to hang around in this game behind a defense that gives up just 21.8 points and 370 yards per game this season against a much tougher slate than what Temple was up against.

The Demon Deacons have some standouts on defense in junior DL Duke Ejiofor, senior LB Marquel Lee and freshman S Jessie Bates.  Eliofor and Lee combined for 34 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks this season.  Bates finished second on the team in tackles to Lee.  He led all FBS freshmen in interceptions, interception returns yards and INT return touchdowns and was named to the Freshman All-American Team.

Wake Forest is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  The Demon Deacons are 9-2 ATS after playing a home game over the last two seasons.  Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  With all of the motivational edges in this game favoring the Demon Deacons, this is a contest that they could win outright.  Bet Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.

25* Lions/Cowboys MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on OVER 44.5

I think the best bet on this game is the OVER, and I'm clearly not the only one as this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 44.5 already.  But I still don't think it's enough.  These teams will be playing in perfect conditions inside AT&T Stadium, so scoring will be plentiful.  And I think these are two of the most overrated defenses in the NFL.

The only reason the Cowboys have decent defensive numbers is because they have controlled the time of possession with their dominant offense.  But the Cowboys give up 5.6 yards per play this season, which is 19th in the NFL.  The Lions give up 5.8 yards per play, which is 25th in the NFL.  These aren't good defenses.

The Lions don't have a good running game, but Stafford will be primed for a huge day against a Cowboys defense that gives up 68.4 percent completions, 265 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt this season.  The Cowboys ranks 2nd in rushing offense at 154.5 yards per game, and they should have a huge day on the ground against a Lions defense that gives up 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks tied for 16th in the NFL.

The Lions have been padding their stats defensively against some awful quarterbacks.  In their last 11 games, they have faced Brian Hoyer, Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford (twice), Blake Bortles, Drew Brees, Matt Barkley and Eli Manning.  Only two of those guys are having good seasons in Cousins and Brees.  The Lions haven't seen an offense as potent as the Cowboys, which averages 26.1 points per game overall, including 27.3 points per game at home.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series.  We've seen 44 or more combined points in all six meetings.  The Cowboys and Lions are averaging 58.0 combined points in those six contests, which is nearly 14 points more than this posted total.  A big reason for that is because both of these teams play in domes, so the conditions are always perfect.

Dallas is 46-19 OVER in its last 65 home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better.   I think we're getting a ton of value here on the OVER because the Lions have gone under the total in eight straight, while the Cowboys have gone under in three straight coming in.  The oddsmakers have over-adjusted for it. We'll see a shootout here Monday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NC State/Vanderbilt Independence Bowl No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4.5

I really like the way that Vanderbilt finished the season as it put everything it had into becoming bowl eligible. That was a huge win over Tennessee for Derek Mason in his third season here, and the trip to a bowl game likely saved his job. These players will be ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game after missing out each of the past two years, so you know you’re going to get a big effort from them.

The Commodores certainly saved their best football for last. They won their final two games by beating Ole Miss 38-17 as 10-point home dogs and Tennessee 45-34 as 7.5-point home dogs. Wins over programs of that caliber are no small feat, and Vanderbilt also beat the likes of Western Kentucky and Georgia earlier this season, while also playing Auburn to a 7-point game on the road. They only lost by double-digits once this season, so they were competitive in basically every game.

While Vanderbilt beat four teams with winning records this season, NC State only beat two such teams. One was against Old Dominion, and the other was against a deflated UNC team in the season finale that had no shot at going to the ACC title game after losing the previous week. The Wolfpack simply took advantage of that spot and beat their rivals when they were the more motivated team because they needed the win to get to a bowl.

Let’s talk a little more about how well Vanderbilt played down the stretch. It scored a combined 83 points over the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee, and totaled four touchdown passes in his finale two games.

So not only is Vanderbilt’s offense hitting its stride, but the defense was one of the better units in the stacked SEC. The Commodores only allowed 22.6 points per game this season, holding opponents to 8.4 points per game less than their season averages. This defense should be able to limit NC State’s offense, which averaged a mediocre 25.8 points per game during the regular season and was inconsistent all year.

NC State is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games off a road win over a conference opponent. Derek Mason is 12-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better as the coach of Vanderbilt. Dave Doeren is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who allow 58% completions or more as the coach of NC State. The Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The SEC supremacy reigns true in this game, too.  Bet Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

15* Miami/Miss State St. Petersburg Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -13

I certainly want to give Miami Ohio credit for making a bowl game after the 0-6 start. The Redhawks clearly wanted to make a bowl, and they will be excited to be here. However, I just don’t see any way they can be competitive against Mississippi State, which I would argue is probably the best team that they will have played all season.

Certainly you could argue that Iowa was the best team that they played, but I would say it’s pretty close. And Miami lost to Iowa 21-45. I think we will see a similar margin in this game against a Bulldogs team that really got better as the season progressed.

It’s worth noting that Miami Ohio only beat two bowl teams this season, and that was Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, two mediocre teams in the MAC. The talent difference in this game is massive as the Bulldogs will have better athletes on the field at almost every position.

Mississippi State beat two really good teams down the stretch. They won 35-28 over Texas A&M as 10-point underdogs, and then saved their best performance for last in a 55-20 win at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs. The Bulldogs racked up 566 total yards on the Rebels, including 457 rushing.

The Bulldogs really picked it up offensively in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that weren’t against No. 1 Alabama. Freshman sensation Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards, 1,243 on the ground, while accounting for 35 total touchdowns (21 passing, 14 rushing).

Fitzgerald rushed for at least 100 yards in five of six second-half contests, including 258 against Ole Miss. He is bigger than basically every linebacker at Miami Ohio and will be tough to tackle.  Fitzgerald has two elite targets on the outside to get the ball to. Senior Fred Ross caught 68 balls for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns, while junior Donald Gray had 39 receptions for 691 yards and five scores.

Plays against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) – off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 29-4 (87.9%) ATS since 1992.

Dan Mullen is 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Mississippi State. After playing in the rugged SEC West this season, the Bulldogs will welcome this cupcake opponent and make easy work of them in the St. Petersburg Bowl.   This is going to be a physical mismatch in favor of the Bulldogs, and that will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Take Mississippi State in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* Broncos/Chiefs NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver +3

The Chiefs are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL. They have the raw numbers of a team that should be 4-10 instead of 10-4. They rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 43.7 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse than them in this category, so they are in some pretty terrible company.

The Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last seven games overall. They have been outgained by a total of 619 yards in their last seven games. One of those was their fluke 30-27 (OT) win at Denver. They were outgianed by 191 yards by the Broncos in that contest. Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play while the Broncos averaged 6.7 yards per play in that contest. There’s no way the Chiefs should have won that game.

Now the Broncos are going to be out for revenge here in the rematch less than a month later. They are playing for their season right now as they have to win out to have a chance to make the playoffs. They will be the more motivated team as a result, and there’s no question they are the better team in my mind when you look at the numbers.

While the Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Broncos have arguably the best defense. They rank 2nd in total defense at 310.9 yards per game and 1st in passing defense at 183.0 yards per game. They are also 4th in scoring defense at 18.4 points per game allowed. The Chiefs certainly don’t have the playmakers to scare them here.

The Chiefs have no home-field advantage. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. That includes recent upset losses to the Bucs as 7-point home favorites and the Titans as 6-point home favorites. And home-field has meant nothing in this series, either. The road team is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS int heir last seven trips to Kansas City.

Denver is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games when revenging a close loss against an opponent by 3 points or less. It is coming back to win 27.4 to 21.7 on average in this spot. The Broncos are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Christmas Day No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

I’ve been riding the Steelers with a ton of success in recent weeks and I’m going to continue to do so this week. Once again I believe they are being under-priced here by oddsmakers as only 5.5-point home favorites. They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, and I have backed them in all five games.

The Steelers may be the best team in the NFL. They have outgained eight straight opponents, which is the sign of a dominant team. They have outgained their last five opponents during their winning streak by a combined 663 yards, which is an average of 132.6 yards per game. No team has been better than them during this stretch.

I think the fact that the game against the Bengals last week was close is providing some line value here. But that game wasn’t nearly as close as the final of 24-20 showed. The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 160 yards and should have won by more, but they were held to six field goals to start the game before finally getting into the end zone. It’s unlike them to struggle in the red zone like that, and I don’t expect it to happen again this week.

Mike Tomlin is 57-21 all-time at Heinz Field, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last eight home games. The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season, winning by 8.2 points per game. One of their losses came against the Patriots without Roethlisberger, and the other came against the Cowboys in a fluky result that was lost when they went 0-for-4 on 2-point conversions.

Everyone knows that the Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but what is getting overlooked is how good this defense is playing. The Steelers are only allowing 14.0 points per game in their last five contests. They are also giving up just 250.0 total yards per game in their last five. They haven’t allowed more than 91 rushing yards in any of those five games, and they have held opponents to 219 passing yards or fewer in all five as well. This defense is playing as well as any in the NFL.

The Ravens are just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Their offense is scoring just 18.8 points per game and averaging 313 yards per game on the road. They have lost each of their last four road games with a 4-point loss to the Giants, an 8-point loss to the Jets, a 10-point loss to the Cowboys and a 7-point loss to the Patriots. So, they’ve struggled to even stay within a touchdown of teams on the road.

Pittsburgh wants revenge badly from losing four straight meetings with the Ravens. But that is skewed a bit because of injuries to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger was a game-time decision in their 14-21 loss to the Ravens earlier this season. He was rusty, and the Ravens scored on a punt block TD and a 95-yard TD. It was the definition of a fluky result.

In another loss Michael Vick was their starting quarterback, and in another loss they had to pick up a running back off the streets on game week. The key for me is that the Steelers are a much different team now than when they played back on November 6th. They are hitting on all cylinders and playing their best football of the season. They are also as healthy as they have been all year.

The Ravens are dealing with some key injuries right now, including one to cornerback Jimmy Smith. He missed last week’s game against the Eagles and it’s unlikely he returns this week. He is their top cover corner, and it’s not even close. He has had success in the past against Antonio Brown, too, and if he doesn’t play it would be a massive loss for the Ravens.

The Steelers thrive this time of year, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 December games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10. The Ravens are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 December games. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

But my favorite trend of all is that the Steelers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games when they are playing with same-season division revenge.  They have bounced back to cover the spread each of the last 11 times they have lost to an AFC North opponent in their first meeting of the season.  That's the sign of a resilient team, and I expect a huge effort from Pittsburgh here Sunday with the AFC North title at stake.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Bengals/Texans AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Houston +1

The Texans have plenty of motivation right now. If they win out they will win the division, and they even have a shot at a wild card if they don’t win out. But either way they should be focused despite the fact that they could lose this game and beat the Titans next week and win the division as well.

Houston beat Indianapolis 22-17 on the road two weeks ago, and showed a lot of heart in fighting back from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Jaguars last week. Brock Osweiler single-handedly dug them that 13-0 deficit with two interceptions in his own territory. Then he was replaced by Tom Savage, and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Savage fed off of the momentum and led the Texans back to a 21-20 victory. He finished 23 of 36 for 260 yards without an interception. And this game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score showed. The Texans outgained the Jaguars by 237 yards and held them to just 150 yards of total offense.

Now Savage is going to start again this week, and I think he can only be an upgrade over Osweiler, who the Texans have been winning in spite of. And the Texans are 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to the Chargers a few weeks back, who were coming off their bye week, while the Texans were in a bad spot coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City.

I really question Cincinnati’s motivation this week. The Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoffs with their heartbreaking loss to the Steelers last week. They led that game 20-6, but they were shut out in the second half and lost 20-24. Off such an emotional loss to their biggest rivals, and with the Ravens on deck, I don’t expect the Bengals to show up at all this week.  And they were outgained by 160 yards by the Steelers last week, so it wasn't as close as the final score.

The Bengals have some injury issues right now in which they could be extra cautious with given their standing. Tight end Tyler Eifert is out with a back injury, while LB Vontaze Burfict is out with a concussion.  WR AJ Green and RB Jeremy Hill are probable, but nowhere near 100%.  Don't be surprised if the Bengals are cautious with these two given they have nothing to play for.

The reason the Texans have been able to overcome their offensive woes this season for an 8-6 record is because of their defense, which now ranks 1st in the NFL in allowing just 306.5 yards per game. Most people don’t give this defense the credit it deserves because JJ Watt is out, but they really haven’t missed a beat. And as long as Tom Savage takes care of the ball better than Osweiler did before him, they will be just fine.

Cincinnati is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Bengals are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games. The Texans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet the Texans Saturday.

20* EMU/ODU Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 64

What a great honor it is for these kids from Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion to be playing in a bowl game.  These are two postseason strangers as the Monarchs have never played in a bowl game, while the Eagles will be making their first appearance in 29 years.

Not only do these teams get to play in a bowl game, but they get to go to one of the best bowl destinations there is.  They will be playing in the Bahamas in perfect 82 degree weather on Friday.  The scoring conditions are going to be ideal, which is why I really like the OVER in this game.

Not surprisingly, the Bahamas Bowl is no stranger to high-scoring affairs.  This is the third edition, and the first two went well OVER the total.  Western Michigan and Middle Tennessee combined for 76 points last year, and Western Kentucky and Central Michigan combined for 97 points in the first edition in 2014.  I think we'll see a similar result in this contest that sails well OVER the posted total of 64.

These are familiar foes as EMU and ODU played last season as well.  They scored 72 combined points at Eastern Michigan in a 38-34 victory for the Monarchs.  Both teams exceeded 400 yards of offense.  And these are two offense that certainly can put up points.

Old Dominion is putting up 36.0 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  The Monarchs boast electric quarterback David Washington, who is one of four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown for at least 25 touchdowns (28) with four or fewer interceptions (4).  Ray Lawry is a tremendous running back as well, rushing for 1,122 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Eastern Michigan averages 30.5 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  This offense has taken off since Brogan Roback took over.  He has thrown for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns this season.  Roback threw for 468 yards and three scores in the Eagles' bowl-clinching win over Ball State earlier this season.

Both of these defenses really struggled on the road this season.  Eastern Michigan gave up 35.2 points, 494 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play away from home.  Old Dominion allowed 33.5 points, 427 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the road as well.

Old Dominion is 10-1 to the OVER after playing three straight conference games over the last three seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The OVER is 19-7 in Eagles last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Monarchs last four vs. a team witha  winning record.  The OVER is 13-5-1 in Monarchs last 19 games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

15* Giants/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5

I simply trust the New York Giants more in this spot.  They have a lot more to play for right now.  They will be super motivated to punch their tickets to the playoffs with a win Thursday night.  It would be the first time in five seasons that they would make the postseason, so they couldn't possibly be more motivated right now.

For whatever reason, the Giants just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  I think it's because the betting public doesn't flock to poor offensive teams like the Giants.  But defense wins championships as we've seen, and the Giants have won of the best in the business.

The Giants rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.9 points per game on the season.  They have held the Cowboys and Lions, two likely playoff teams, to a total of 13 points the past two weeks.  This defense just keeps getting better as the season has gone on.

The Eagles are a mess right now as they've lost seven of their last eight games overall.  Carson Wentz now has the second-worst passer rating in the NFL ahead of only Jared Goff.  And the defense has been atrocious, giving up at least 26 points in five straight and seven of their last eight contests.  The Giants should get their offense going this week, too.

New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games coming off two consecutive home wins.  Plays on road teams (NY GIANTS) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Giants Thursday.

15* Idaho/Colorado State Potato Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 64.5

With how well Colorado State is playing, I’m tempted to take them, but I think the point spread is a bit inflated as a result. Instead, I’ll look to the total as I foresee a shootout between Colorado State and Idaho on the Blue Turf in Boise.

The reason both teams finished so strong this season is their offenses, not their defenses. The Rams averaged an impressive 47.4 points and 520.6 yards over their final five games. Quarterback Nick Stevens was the catalyst. He tossed 14 touchdowns against only one interception over the final six games. Standout receiver Michael Gallup caught eight of his 11 touchdowns after Stevens regained the starting job.

Idaho boasts an elite offense of its own. The Vandals scored at least 34 points in five of their final seven games, all of which resulted in victories. Junior quarterback Matt Linehan, who is the son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, has passes for 2,803 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired. Colorado State gives up 27.8 points, 404 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Rams allowed 34.3 points and 452 yards per game on the road this season. The Vandals give up 29.7 points, 414 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play overall. They allow 34.3 points and 410 yards per game on the road as well.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (COLORADO ST) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP), in non-conference games are 34-8 (81%) over the last 10 seasons.  The final three Colorado State games saw 95, 80 and 94 combined points, which is an average of 89.7 points per game.  We don't need anywhere near that to get the OVER Thursday, but I think we'll get close.

Idaho is 15-3 OVER in its last 18 road games versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game. Idaho is 37-15 OVER in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-4 in Vandals last 16 non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Rams last five games overall.  Bet the OVER in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

15* Memphis/WKU Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

I always look to fade bowl teams with head coaching changes depending on the situation.  We saw it hurt Houston already this bowl season in a 10-34 loss to San Diego State after Tom Herman left for Texas.  And now I think we're going to see the same effect here in the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers just lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who led them to two straight C-USA Championships, to Purdue.  Defensive coordinator Nick Holt will take over in the interim for the bowl game.  WKU already hired former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Sanford to replace Brohm next season, so Holt is pretty much a lame-duck coach here in what will likely be his final game at WKU.

The reason the loss of Brohm really hurts is because he called the plays on offense.  The Hilltoppers averaged an FBS-best 44.6 points per game in three seasons under Brohm.  We saw Houston's offense struggle without Herman, and I certainly think the Hilltoppers won't be as explosive either without Brohm calling the shots.

WKU has already had a successful season with a C-USA title, so it isn't all that excited to be playing in this bowl game anyways.  The same cannot be said for Memphis, which is looking forward to this opportunity to play in a bowl game in the first season under head coach Mike Norvell.  He did a tremendous job in filling in for Justin Fuente in leading the Tigers to an 8-4 season.

Memphis won three of its final four games to improve its bowl position, including an impressive 48-44 win over Houston in the regular-season finale.  The Tigers lost Paxton Lynch to the NFL, but they didn't miss a beat on offense thanks to the play of QB Riley Ferguson.  He led the Tigers to an average of 39.5 points per game this season while throwing for 3,326 yards, including 409 yards and four touchdowns without an interception against a very good Houston defense in the finale.

The Tigers certainly played the tougher schedule this season as the AAC was the much stronger conference this season.  Their four losses came to Ole Miss, Navy, Tulsa and South Florida.  They beat Temple earlier this season, which won the AAC title.  Western Kentucky only beat three teams that finished with winning records this season in Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion and LA Tech.  And two of those games went right down to the wire.

Memphis comes in playing its best football of the season, getting better under Norvell as the season has progressed.  It went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final three games, beating SMU 51-7 on the road, Cincinnati 34-7 on the road and Houston 48-44 at home.  The only loss came to South Florida by a final of 42-49, and South Florida was one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers are scoring 43.8 points per game during this stretch and they have the firepower to match the Hilltoppers score for score, especially now that Brohm isn't calling the plays.

The Tigers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference-USA opponents.  The Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Western Kentucky is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  Bet Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl.

20* Panthers/Redskins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5

This line seems like a classic overreaction from the betting public. They see a team like Washington in the hunt for a playoff spot and back them because of the ‘must-win’ factor. They see the Carolina Panthers at 5-8, and though they’re not eliminated from the playoffs, they expect them not to show up.

I think this false public perception has provided some line value on the Panthers here. The Redskins have been bet up from -4 to -6.5 already this week and it could get to 7. The Panthers clearly have not quit as they came back and beat the Chargers 28-16 at home last week. And almost every player shows up for Monday Night Football, so I’m not worried about any motivation concerns here.

“There is no room for error and we have to rely on certain other things happening,” head coach Ron Rivera said. “At the end of the day, our concern is our next game. We play the Redskins on Monday night and I believe our guys are going to prep and get ready. … Our intention is to win them all.”

The Redskins have only been favored by more than a field goal once all season. That came as 7.5-point home favorites over the Browns in a game they easily could have lost as they were trailing in the 4th quarter. If they were only 7.5-point favorites over the Browns, they certainly shouldn’t be 6.5-point favorites over the Panthers. And they have only won two games this season by more than a touchdown.

I think Carolina will be able to keep pace with Washington here as Cam Newton is healthy and the offense should move the football and score points. The Redskins give up 24.4 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season. The back door will always be open for the Panthers against this suspect defense.

Carolina could get the return of Luke Kuechly this week as he came back to practice and has been cleared to play. That would be a nice boost for a defense that is coming off one of its best performances of the season last week. The Panthers held a very good San Diego offense to just 16 points and 278 yards while forcing five turnovers.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. The Panthers are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Redskins, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game. They won 44-16 at home last season as 7-point favorites over the Redskins. They held Washington to just 186 total yards in the win. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Washington is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 Monday night home games. The Redskins are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the past two seasons. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Panthers Monday.

15* Bucs/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Tampa Bay +7

I’ve been fading the Cowboys with a ton of success here down the stretch. I cashed in the Redskins +7 against them three weeks ago, and the Giants +4 against them last week. The Cowboys have consistently been overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, and they continue to be overvalued here as 7-point home favorites.

The Bucs continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers despite playing as well as almost anyone here down the stretch. The Bucs are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They have gone on the road and beaten both the Chiefs and Chargers as underdogs. They also beat the Bears and Seahawks as home underdogs before taking care of business in the favorite role against the Saints last week.

No team has played better defensively than the Bucs over the past five weeks. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 points per game since Week 10. The six total touchdowns scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. They have also held opponents to an average of 281.0 yards per game while forcing 14 turnovers in this stretch.

I know the Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been spectacular, but the biggest key for them is that they have a healthy Doug Martin back running the football. Just the threat of a running game has made the Bucs tough to stop. They are committing to the run, too, rushing at least 30 times in every game during this five-game streak. They will lean on Martin again to try and take some of the pressure off of Winston.

However, I think Winston is going to have a huge game against this overrated Cowboys defense. Dallas benefits from its offense holding onto the ball and controlling time of possession. But make no mistake, this Dallas defense is vulnerable. The Cowboys allow 69.7% completions and 268 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. They also rank 21st in the NFL in allowing 5.7 yards per play.

Jason Garrett is 11-25 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won five or six of the last seven games as the coach of the Cowboys. Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last three seasons. The Bucs are 10-2 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams who allow at least 5.65 yards per play over the last three years. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Take the Bucs Sunday.

15* Pats/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver +3

At 8-5 on the season, the Denver Broncos are tied with the Miami Dolphins for the final wild card spot in the AFC.  It's safe to say that they need this win more than the Patriots, who are basically guaranteed of a first-round bye.  I think we'll get a big effort from the Broncos here.

I still think the Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL.  So the Patriots being 3-point road favorites here indicates that they would be 9-point favorites in New England.  I would take the Broncos in a heartbeat at that price.  And the Ravens were only 6.5-point dogs in New England last week.  The Broncos are better than the Ravens, and it's not all that close.

Now the Patriots are on a short week here after playing a big game against the Ravens on Monday Night Football.  Not only are they on a short week, but now they will have to play in the altitude in Denver.  And it's safe to say that playing in Denver hasn't been too kind to the Patriots in the past.

Indeed, the Broncos are 15-3 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against New England.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Patriots.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Broncos won both meetings at home with the Patriots last year as underdogs.  Tom Brady has been terrible in Denver.

I also believe the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL, so Brady is going to struggle again, especially with his lack of weapons right now in the passing game.  The Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 310.7 yards per game and 1st in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.6 yards per play.  They are also 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 183.5 passing yards per game.

Both CB Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware recently returned to the lineup, and this defense has been dominant the last few weeks.  The Broncos gave up only 273 yards and 3.6 yards per play to the Chiefs, 233 yards and 4.1 yards per play to the Jaguar sand 253 yards and 3.9 yards per play to the Titans.

Paxton Lynch has been forced into action three times this season, including two starts, because of the injuries to Trevor Siemian.  Lynch is only averaging 6.0 yards per attempt while Siemian is at 7.3 per attempt.  Siemian is playing better than Payton Manning did last year.  He just returned against the Titans from injury last week, and he played great in the second half and nearly led them to a comeback victory.  Now Siemian will be a week healthier and should be closer to full strength.

New England is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons.  The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Roll with the Broncos Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I have been on the Steelers three of the last four weeks and they've gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They came through for me against the Browns, Giants and Bills.  Their 27-20 win over the Bills last week was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, too.  I'm going to keep riding them this week.

The Steelers won by a touchdown over the Bills last week despite Ben Roethlisberger having an uncharacteristic off game with three interceptions.  Le'Veon Bell actually finished with more yards from scrimmage than Buffalo by himself.

The Steelers outgained the Bills by 185 yards.  They have outgained each of their last seven opponents and nine of their last 10 overall.  That is the sign of a dominant team.  They are in playoff mode right now and hitting on all cylinders.  Their defense has been great, giving up just 12.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Pittsburgh absolutely hates Cincinnati.  The Bengals have a knack for hurting their best players, which is the biggest reason for their hatred.  And they have certainly taken out their frustration on the Bengals in recent history.  They have won three straight and six of their last seven meetings with the Bengals.

I think the fact that the Bengals have won their last two games and haven't quit despite basically being eliminated from the playoffs has actually provided us some value here.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But those two wins came against the Browns and Eagles, who both appear to have quit themselves.

Cincinnati has now played four straight terrible offensive teams in Buffalo, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against one of the top offenses in the NFL, and I don't think the Bengals have the firepower to keep up with all their injuries on offense right now.

The Steelers are now 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December games.  The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 16-4-2 ATS in its last 22 trips to Cincinnati.  Playing on the road in this series clearly hasn't been an issue for the Steelers.  They are consistently undervalued in Cincinnati, and I believe that to be the case again here with them listed as only 3-point favorites.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* Saturday Bowl Season Opener on Southern Miss -4.5

Southern Miss underachieved as much as almost anyone in the country this season. The Golden Eagles won 9 games and went to the Conference USA Championship Game last season.  They brought back 13 starters from that squad, including their best player in QB Nick Mullens. So to finish just 6-6 was a huge disappointment.

That being said, I like the way this team rallied in their season finale as they clearly wanted to make a bowl game. They upset Louisiana Tech 39-24 as 15.5-point home underdogs, covering the spread by 30.5 points and finally living up to their potential. A big reason for their success in that game was that Mullens returned from a two-game absence from a concussion to account for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).

There’s no question that the Golden Eagles are way better than their 6-6 record would indicate when you look at the statistics. In fact, they have outgained 11 of their 12 opponents this season. They are outgaining foes 472-331 on the season, or by 141 yards per game. That is the sign of a dominant team, not one with a 6-6 record.

The reason for the record is that they have committed a whopping 32 turnovers this season while forcing only 14, a -18 differential. But their two worst turnover games came without Mullens as they committed four turnovers against North Texas and five against Old Dominion. Having Mullens back healthy makes all the difference for this team. He is completing 63.4% of his passes for 2,926 yards with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season.

When you look at Lafayette’s numbers, they are the definition of an average 6-6 team. The Rajin’ Cajuns average just 366 yards per game on offense and give up 368 yards per game on defense. Their offense has been terrible all season as they average just 23.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. I think Southern Miss, which averages 33.2 points per game and 6.0 per play, has a massive edge on that side of the ball. And defensively, they’re pretty even.

I question the Rajin’ Cajuns’ motivation here because they will be making their 5th appearance in the last 6 years in the New Orleans Bowl. This venue probably has to be getting old, even though they have won all four trips with victories over San Diego State, East Carolina, Tulane and Nevada. I think Southern Miss is far and away the best team that they will have played in this particular bowl.

Teams like Southern Miss who didn't do well against the spread during the regular season have actually been great bets in the postseason.  Teams who covered less than 33% of their spreads coming into bowl season are 43-21 ATS over their last 64 tries.  Bowl favorites in this situation are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 tries.  This line opened at -2 and has been bet up to -4.5 as of this writing.  I believe this line has moved in this direction for good reason.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Houston/SDSU Las Vegas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Houston -3.5

Not all coaching changes are created equal.  I'm not concerned at all about Tom Herman leaving Houston for Texas.  That's because their offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, is their head coach of the future.  Applewhite will call the plays and retain his defensive coordinator for this game before he moves on with Herman to Texas.

From a fundamental standpoint, Houston is clearly the better team here.  They have better talent across the board.  That talent really showed itself in wins over both Oklahoma and Louisville this season.  Not only did they win those games, they dominated them by winning by double-digits.

I think the fact that Houston lost to Memphis 44-48 in the season finale is providing us some value here.  But that was clearly a flat spot the Cougars after beating Louisville the week before.  That loss, plus the Herman news, has them coming into the bowl season undervalued.

Greg Ward Jr. will be the best player on the field in this game.  He didn't fold against Memphis in the season finale and nearly led them to a comeback win.  Ward Jr. is a senior and is going to want to go out a winner.  It's basically like having an extra coach on the field with him under center.

San Diego State has a decent defense, but it hasn't seen a quarterback who can run like Ward.  And the only spread offense the Aztecs have faced that is even close to the Cougars is Cal.  Well, SDSU gave up 40 points and over 600 yards to that Cal offense.  But Cal doesn't have a guy under center who is a dual threat like Ward Jr.

Houston was only outgained twice all season by its opponents.  The Cougars outgained their foes by 134 yards per game on average.  San Diego State was outgained five times this year.  The Aztecs were outgained in each of the last three games by Wyoming (twice) and Colorado State.

The biggest reason I like Houston is the matchup.  San Diego State is one of the worst passing teams in the country as they average just 146 rushing yards per game.  They rely heavily on their running game, and RB Donnell Pumphrey only needs 108 yards to become the FBS' all-time leading rusher.  I think achieving that feat is just as important to the Aztecs as winning the game.  If they get behind like I expect, they don't have the passing game to catch up, and they'll probably still be running it.

Houston is going to take it personal and try and stop Pumphrey from getting the record.  The Cougars certainly have the goods to do it, too.  The strength of the Houston defense is stopping the run.  They rank 3rd in the country in run defense, giving up just 98 rushing yards per game and a minuscule 2.9 yards per carry.  This couldn't be a better matchup for them.

San Diego State is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston is 6-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 8-1 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last two years.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Aztecs are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  SDSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Houston Saturday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Los Angeles +15.5

It's time to buy low on the Los Angeles Rams.  They are more undervalued right now than they have been at any point this season, and that's certainly reflected in this 16-point spread.  They are coming off three straight losses by 16 points or more against non-division opponents.

I think the Rams will play with some fire this week as they step back within the division to face the Seahawks.  I also like the fact that they fired head coach Jeff Fisher, because that first game with an interim coach usually provides a spark for the players.  In this case it will be special teams coach John Fassel serving as the interim head coach.

The Rams always play the Seahawks tough.  In fact, they are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  All four wins were outright upsets as they were dogs of 3.5, 5.5, 6.5 and 11.5 points.  The lone loss was a 14-point setback in Seattle, and I think the Seahawks are going to have a very hard time putting them away by more than two touchdowns here.

We got to see first-hand just how poor the Seattle secondary would be in their first game without Earl Thomas last week.  They allowed the highest passer rating of the Pete Carroll era in a 10-38 loss to the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 23 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns against this Seattle defense.

Los Angeles still boasts an elite defense that has had the Seahawks' number.  The Rams have allowed just 20 points and a combined 126 rushing yards in their last two meetings with the Seahawks.  This defensive line will stop the run again, and I'm not so sure Russell Wilson can beat the secondary after throwing five interceptions against the Packers last week.

Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on road teams (LA RAMS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Rams Thursday.

25* Ravens/Pats MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Baltimore +7

The betting public and the oddsmakers aren't giving the Ravens the amount of respect they deserve.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL since the beginning of the season.  They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 406 yards.

In fact, the Ravens now rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 51.6 yards per game on the season.  The key has been a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense (296.1 yards/game) and 1st against the run (73.8 yards/game).  This has a chance to be the best run defense in NFL history.

That's important because the Ravens can make the Patriots a one-dimensional passing team.  The Patriots aren't nearly as effective when they can't run the ball.  That's because Tom Brady is playing with limited weapons right now with both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out.

The Patriots have been able to get by the past two weeks without Gronk because they have been up against two of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They beat the Jets 22-17 on the road and the Rams 26-10 at home.  The Ravens are starting to click offensively, especially after Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-6 win against the Dolphins last week.

Getting a full touchdown here with the Ravens is a tremendous value.  That's especially the case when you consider 24 of the last 29 Baltimore games have been decided by 8 points or less.  It's also the case when you consider how tough Baltimore has played New England in recent years.  Indeed, the Patriots have only beaten the Ravens one time by more than 6 points in their last nine meetings.

The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after leading their previous game by 21 points or more at halftime.  They are outscoring opponents by an average of 11.3 points per game in this spot.  Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.  The Ravens are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning record.  The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ravens are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to New England.

Plays on underdogs 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the second half of the season are 71-37 (65.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Ravens Monday.

15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York +4

The Cowboys are way overvalued right now due to their 11-game winning streak. That has shown up the last two weeks as they have failed to cover in a 5-point win over Washington as 7-point home favorites, and a 2-point win at Minnesota as 3-point favorites. And the Cowboys were outgained by 152 yards by the Redskins and by 54 yards by the Vikings.

Let’s just compare the line from the first game between these teams to see how overvalued the Cowboys really are. The Giants were 1-point road favorites in Week 1. By that theory, they should be roughly 7-point home favorites in the rematch when you factor in 3 points for home-field advantage. Instead, they are 4-point dogs, which is essentially provides us with 11 points of value. I’m not saying they should be 7-point favorites, but they certainly shouldn’t be underdogs after being favored at Dallas in the opener.

The Giants boast a terrific passing game that can take advantage of this awful Dallas pass defense, which is allowing 70.3% completions and 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys have been terrible on defense all season, but that has been masked by their offense, which has been able to control the time of possession. That isn’t likely to happen in this game, and that defense will get exposed.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 27th in yards per play (5.8), 29th in sack percentage (4.6%), 32nd in interception rate (0.8%) and 28th in yards per drive (36.4) allowed. That’s not the sign of a good defense, and Eli Manning, Odell Bechkam, Sterling Shephard and company should be able to make plenty of plays against Dallas to lead the Giants to victory.

The reason the Cowboys won’t be able to control the time of possession is because the Giants are so good against the run. Indeed, the Giants are 5th in the NFL in run defense, giving up just 91.4 rushing yards per game. They are also tied for 3rd in allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season. They will be able to limit Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack here. Dallas only gained 101 yards on 30 carries in the first meeting, which is just 3.4 yards per carry.

The Giants are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss coming by two points to the Washington Redskins. New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dallas.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay +3

Two weeks ago before playing the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers said the Packers were going to run the table. Well, so far so good. Green Bay has saved its season with a 27-13 win as 4-point dogs at Philadelphia and a 21-13 home win over Houston as 7-point favorites last week. It is now just two games behind Detroit in the division and very much alive in the wild card race.

I think the fact that the Seahawks blew out the Panthers on National TV last Sunday night has them overvalued here. The betting public is all over them now. But that was an awful spot for the Panthers. They were coming off a crushing loss in Oakland the previous week that essentially eliminated them from the playoffs. And the Seahawks wanted revenge from two losses to the Panthers last season, including the NFC Championship Game.

The Packers have made a commitment to running the football the past couple weeks. They ran it 28 times against the Eagles and 26 against the Texans. They have been able to control the time of possession in both games as they have been consistently moving the sticks. That has benefited their defense, which has given up just 13.0 points per game over the past two weeks.

The Seahawks aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They are just 2-3 in road games this season, compared to 6-0 at home. Seattle is scoring just 15.3 points per game on the road this year.  And Green Bay is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

The Packers have at least a 4-point home field advantage, and it’s pushing 5 points when it comes to the month of December when it gets colder out.  So this line is essentially saying that the Seahawks would be at least a 7-point favorite on a neutral field, and I'm not buying that.  Aaron Rodgers is 14-1 straight up in his last 15 December home starts.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. The Packers are 6-0 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Seahawks. You have to go all the way back to 1999 to find the last time Seattle won in Green Bay. And not to mention, team captain Earl Thomas has been lost for the season due to injury. If there’s any quarterback who can take advantage of an absence like Thomas, it’s certainly Rodgers.

The Seahawks are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a home blowout win by 21 points or more. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of last game over the past three seasons. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7.5

The Detroit Lions have no business being favored by more than a touchdown against any team in the NFL.  Especially not a division rival like the Chicago Bears who continue to play hard and would love to put a blemish on the Lions' record here.

This line is a classic overreaction from the week before.  The Lions went on the road and shocked the Saints in a 28-13 victory as 6-point underdogs.  But that was the first time all season that the Lions won by more than a touchdown.  In fact, 11 of Detroit's 12 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less, and that alone shows you that there is value with the Bears here.

Not to mention, the Lions are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL due to their 8-4 record.  But they have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 11 of their 12 games this season, which makes it nearly impossible to be 8-4.  The raw numbers show that the Lions aren't very good.  They rank 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 17.5 yards per game.  They also 22nd in yards per play differential (-0.2), gaining 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.8 per play on defense.

If you just look at the stats, you would think the Bears are actually the better team.  The Bears actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (+0.6).  They gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They Bears are also 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 21.4 yards per game on the season.

The Bears beat the Lions 17-14 at home as 3-point dogs in their first meeting.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bears outgained the Lions by 145 yards in that contest. Their offense racked up 408 total yards while their defense only gave up 263.  They held Matthew Stafford to 213 passing yards and two interceptions without a touchdown.  The Lions' only touchdown in that game came on an 85-yard punt return with less than two minutes to play.

I like what I've seen from Matt Barkley recently.  He is a gamer who doesn't make many mistakes.  And Barkley would have put up even bigger numbers the past two weeks if it wasn't for drops.  Bears receivers dropped 10 balls against the Titans in a game they should have won, and several more last week against the 49ers.  Had they caught some of them, that would have been a bigger blowout than the 26-6 final against San Francisco showed.

But Jordan Howard had a big day, rushing for 117 yards and three touchdowns for the Bears, and he should have a big game against this Lions' defense.  Detroit has had to play some of its safety's at linebacker because of injuries to their top two LB's in DeAndre Levy and Tahir Whitehead.  The Saints didn't take advantage of it last week as they only ran the ball 12 times.  Chicago won't make that same mistake.  Look for a heavy dose of Howard in this one.

Chicago is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 off three straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.   The Lions are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average at least 7 yards per attempt over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last two years.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

As the weather has gotten colder, the Pittsburgh Steelers have played their best football of the season. The Steelers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They are coming off three straight double-digit blowout victories and I expect them to continue to roll Sunday.

The Steelers have moved into a first-place tie with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. The Ravens play the Patriots on the road this week, so this is their chance to overtake them. And with how well they’re playing right now, the Steelers should be favored by more than 2.5 points against the Bills.

The Bills will have a hard time getting back up off the mat this week after blowing a golden opportunity in Oakland last weekend. They led that game 24-9 in the third quarter, but gave up 29 unanswered points and wound up losing by 14. I simply do not like the state of mind of this team after that kind of loss, especially since their chances of making the playoffs are now slim to none. They would need to run the table, and even that might not be enough.

The Bills are now just 2-4 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their two wins have come against the Bengals and Jaguars. They beat the Bengals by 4 the same day that they lost both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard, and they were fortunate to beat the Jaguars after trailing most the way at home in that game.

The Steelers have outgained six straight opponents and eight of their last nine, which is the sign of a dominant team. They outgained the Giants by 155 yards last week in one of their most complete performances of the season. Ben Roethlisberger now has a full compliment of weapons, especially with the return of TE LaDarius Green, who caught six balls for 110 yards and a score last week.

The defense is starting to play more like the Steel Curtain units of the past. The Steelers have allowed a total of 30 points in their last three games and an average of 10.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed 28 or more points in four of their last six. I see the Steelers hanging a big number on them here and Buffalo not being able to catch up.

The key to stopping the Bills is stopping the run, and the Steelers have been great at that this season. They rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 92 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Bills are 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Buffalo.  The one-sided nature of this series continues this week.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

 20* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Oakland +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are going to be out for revenge from their 26-10 loss to the Chiefs earlier this season. That was actually the last time they lost a game, as they have reeled off six straight victories since. And it was an awful spot for the Raiders as the Chiefs were coming off their bye week with a big advantage in rest.

But the Raiders have been rolling since, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming in a 3-point win over Carolina as 3.5-point favorites. The other five wins all came by 6 points or more. The offense is hitting on all cylinders, scoring at least 27 points in all six games. And the defense has steadily improved, allowing 24 or fewer points in five of the six contests.

This is an Oakland offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points per game and 5th in total offense at 391.7 yards per game. The Chiefs rank just 23rd in total offense at 333.3 yards per game. They just have trouble moving the football this season, and their defense hasn’t been any better, ranking 29th in total defense at 384.9 yards per game.

As you can see, the Chiefs are 9-3 despite ranking 23rd in total offense and 29th in total defense. If that’s not overachieving I don’t know what is. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 51.6 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some very poor company. They have been outgained in five straight games despite going 4-1 over that time frame.

At some point, the Chiefs’ luck is going to run out because this isn’t a very good football team. They are winning with smoke and mirrors. A whopping 16 of their 29 points last week came from their defense and special teams against the Falcons in a game they should have lost. They also got 9 points from their defensive and special teams in a win over the Broncos the week before. And four weeks ago, their offense didn’t score a touchdown and they beat the Panthers.

But we saw what happened when the Chiefs couldn’t get points from their defense or special teams in their last home game in Week 11. They lost 17-19 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs as 7-point favorites. And that game wasn’t even as close as the final score because the Bucs outgained them by 99 yards and were held to four field goals. The Chiefs have been outgained by a total of 592 yards in their last five games, which equates to 118.4 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a good football team.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series between Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the road team is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings. The Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Kansas City. And Oakland has been a tremendous road team over the past few seasons. The Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS on the road this season alone.

And the Chiefs certainly haven't had any home-field advantages of late.  They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Kansas City is also 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.  It will be cold in Kansas City tonight, but the winds will be in the single-digits, which helps Oakland's elite passing attack.  Bet the Raiders Thursday.

20* Colts/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +1.5

The Jets may be just 3-8 this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and not their performance on the field.  They have played the 5th-toughest schedule this season.  Now things finally lighten up a bit for them as they play the Colts, 49ers and Dolphins over the next three weeks.  I think you'll see much better results from them going forward.

I know the Jets have lost three straight, but they've been in all three games as the losses have come by 4, 3 and 5 points.  They nearly beat the New England Patriots at home last week in a 17-22 loss after the Patriots scored late in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good.  While sometimes a team would be in for a letdown after facing the Patriots, that won't be the case tonight because teams always get up for Monday Night Football.

A big problem for the Jets has been turnovers as they rank 31st in the league in turnover differential (-14).  They have only eight takeaways all season, which is absurd.  Their defense is better than that as it ranks 15th in the NFL at 348.7 yards per game allowed.  Over the last three weeks the Jets have given up fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt in each game.

Andrew Luck has been sacked 36 times this season, and the Jets still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They should get after him here and should win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  The Colts rank 30th in total defense, giving up 27.4 points and 395.0 yards per game.  They rank 26th against the run and are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season.  They are also 30th against the pass and 31st in yards per play allowed at 6.2.

Look for Matt Forte to get it going tonight and take some of the pressure off of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is still an average quarterback in this league despite the interceptions.  Forte has amassed 508 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in his past five contests.  The Jets went to a short passing game against the Patriots last week and it worked.

Indianapolis may be in the playoff hunt at 5-6 on the season, but make no mistake, this is not a good team.  It has played the 6th-easiest schedule this season.  The Colts have been outgained in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 27th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 42.6 yards per game on average.  The Jets have only been outgained by 13.6 yards per game this season to compare.

The Jets are 2-0 against Andrew Luck in his career.  Luck has completed just 43 of 81 passes for 530 yards with one touchdown, five interceptions and a 52.0 career passer rating.  He has also been sacked five times.  Colts quarterbacks have been sacked 3.5 times per game this season.

New York is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 home games off a home loss.  The Jets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games in December.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New York.  Bet the Jets Monday.

20* Giants/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a dog fight with the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North lead.  They are finally as healthy as they've been all season, and it is starting to show as they are coming off back-to-back blowout road wins over the Browns and Colts.  Now they've had extra time to prepare for this game after blasting Indianapolis on Thanksgiving Night.

The Steelers have outgained five straight opponents and seven of their last eight overall.  They are legitimately a Top 5 team in the NFL as they rank 5th in point differential, outscoring opponents by 44 points on the season despite dealing with injuries and suspensions to their best players.  But that is no longer an issue from them, and we'll see their best going forward given the position they are in in the AFC North.

The New York Giants are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  They have only outscored their opponents by 18 points on the season, and 14 of those came last week against the Browns.  The key for them is that they've gone an unsustainable 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  No worries, this one won't be decided by that margin.

The Giants rank 25th in yardage differential on the season, which isn't something you would expect from an 8-3 team.  And they've certainly taken advantage of a very soft schedule.  The Giants have played the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL, while the Steelers have played the 12th-toughest.

After losing back-to-back home games to the Patriots and Cowboys, the Steelers will get back on track in a big way at home here.  They haven't lost three straight at home since 2003.  Mike Tomlin is 56-21 all-time at Heinz Field and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 25 touchdowns against five interceptions in his past seven home games.  The Steelers' defense is at their best when the stop the run, and that won't be an issue because the Giants are 31st in rushing offense.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past two seasons.  Tomlin is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.  The Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers came up with a season-saving victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football last week.  Not only did they win that game, they dominated, beating the Eagles 27-13 as 4-point dogs and outgaining them by 95 yards.

Now the Packers have new life as they are just two games back of the Detroit Lions for the division lead.  And the Vikings lost on Thursday to the Cowboys, while the Lions aren't likely to win in New Orleans this week.  That means a win Sunday would put the Packers just one game back in the division and with the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions having beaten them earlier this season.  They have everything to play for right now.

The Houston Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They may be 6-5 on the season, but they are nowhere near as good as their record.  They rank 28th in the NFL in yards per play differential.  A big reason for that is their terrible offense, which ranks 29th in total offense at 316.9 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.6 points per game.  The Texans also rank 31st in yards per play (4.8).

Houston has been a great home team, but it has been a different story on the road.  The Texans are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, getting outscored by 13.4 points per game in the process.  Their offense is only scoring 13.2 points per game and averaging 279.2 yards per game on the road.  And their only road win this season came against the Jaguars when the Texans were coming off their bye week.

Brock Osweiler simply isn't going to be able to match Aaron Rodgers score for score.  Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with a 12-to-13 TD/INT ratio.  Rodgers looked great against the Eagles with the short passing game, taking pressure off the defense, which he will continue to do this week.  And he also has the threat of a running game now with a healthy James Starks, which is something the Packers haven't had for much of the season.

The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Green Bay is 40-19-3 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  I expect one of the best performances of the season from Green Bay this week against the hapless Texans.  Take the Packers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Falcons -3.5

The Atlanta Falcons are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFL this season.  They have gone 7-4 despite playing the NFL's toughest schedule to this point.  And all four of their losses have come by single-digits.  They rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.0 yards per play on the season.

The Falcons are 3rd in total offense and 1st in yards per play.  They average 6.6 yards per play every time they snap the football.  They beat Arizona 38-19 at home last week.  What I liked about that win was that Julio Jones was held to 35 receiving yards, yet they still scored 38 points.  That just goes to show you how dynamic this offense is as there are weapons everywhere.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the most fraudulent team in the NFL.  Just look at last week when they turned a safety into 9 points after Tyreke Hill returned a punt for a TD on the next play.  They were outgained by 191 yards by the Broncos last week.  Their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in that game, and their defense games up 6.7 yards per play to the Broncos.  They were lucky to win that game to say the least.

The Chiefs now rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential.  They're getting outgained by 54 yards per game on average.  They also rank 27th in yards per play differential.  They lead the league in turnover differential at +14, and it just seems that if their defense or special teams doesn't score for them, they can't win.  I just don't trust these types of teams.

This is also an awful spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off an emotional OT win on Sunday Night Football against the Broncos, and now they have a huge game against division-leading Oakland on deck Thursday.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.

Road teams who are coming off an overtime game are 0-9 SU & 0-9 ATS while losing by 16.7 points per game in their last nine tries.  Kansas City is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. excellent passing teams who average 7.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* College Football GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +3

You pretty much have to wipe out what Penn State did in the first part of the season because they weren’t healthy. But since that ugly loss in Michigan, the Nittany Lions have gotten healthier every week, and the result has been an 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS run to close out the season.  They have beaten the spread by a combined 131 points during this stretch!

Not only have the Nittany Lions been winning, they’ve been dominating. They have won five straight games by at least 14 points, which dates back to their 24-21 upset of Ohio State. Many thought that win was a fluke, but with five straight wins by 14 points since, I believe the Nittany Lions have more than proved their naysayers wrong.

The biggest difference for Penn State has been the health of its defense. They now have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and after being without their top five linebackers against Michigan, they have gotten back their two best starters in Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell. They have given up an average of just 17.8 points per game in their last eight games.

At the same time, the Penn State offense just keeps improving. They have scored at least 39 points in five straight games coming in, which is impressive when you consider they’ve been up against some solid defenses in the likes of Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State. They are averaging 46.4 points per game over their last five.

Wisconsin checks in on a six-game winning streak of its own. Give the Badgers credit for their great season thus far, but I’m still not completely sold on this team. Four of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. And they were extremely lucky to beat Minnesota last week after falling behind 7-17 at halftime. The Gophers gave that game away by throwing four interceptions in the second half alone.

I think the fact that this game will be played indoors in Lucas Oil Stadium clearly favors Penn State. The elements won’t be an issue, which usually benefits Wisconsin playing outdoors. The better passing team has a huge advantage indoors, and it’s clear that Penn State is the better passing team with more big-play potential.

The Nittany Lions are averaging 251 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt against teams that only give up 204 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt. Wisconsin only averages 180 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt against teams that give up 202 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.

Wisconsin prefers to run the ball, but Penn State has been tremendous against the run since getting healthy. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 66.8 rushing yards per game and 2.0 yards per carry in their last five games overall. They will be ready for the test of going up against this Wisconsin rushing attack.

It’s worth noting that Wisconsin could be without quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who may not play due to a concussion suffered against Minnesota last week. He and Bart Houston have split time this season as they’ve played with two quarterbacks down the stretch. It certainly has worked for them, so if he can’t go that would throw a little wrinkle into Wisconsin’s plans at the position.

Penn State is scoring 40.4 points per game during its 8-game winning streak.  It has the game-changing playmakers in this one in Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin and QB Trace McSorley that will make all the difference.  The underdog has covered all five Big Ten Championship Games while winning three outright.  The Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Championship No-Brainer on OVER 58.5

This ACC Championship Game has been moved from Charlotte to Orlando.  Why is that a big deal for the OVER?  Well, Charlotte is a grass field with colder weather and not ideal for scoring conditions.  The surface in Orlando will be on a fast artificial track, and the weather is going to see a high of 75 on Saturday.  That's ideal scoring conditions.

Clemson is going to hang a big number here.  The Tigers got their wake-up call from Pitt a few weeks back, but the offense has been humming since.  They scored 28 points in the first half against a good Wake Forest defense the following week before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they hung 56 on a decent South Carolina defense last week.

Deshaun Watson threw six touchdown passes in that win over South Carolina.  He has an outside shot of stealing the Heisman Trophy from Lamar Jackson now that Louisville faltered down the stretch.  And you know Clemson is going to give Watson every opportunity to put up a big stat line in this game to pad his stats, just as they did last week.  This is a Clemson offense that is putting up 40.0 points and 507 yards per game on the season.

First-year coach Justin Fuente has done a tremendous job of improving the previously stagnant VA Tech offense.  The Hokies are putting up 35.0 points and 453 yards per game this season. That’s a huge improvement from the last few years under Frank Beamer. Jerod Evans is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,045 yards with 26 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also leading the team in rushing with 713 yards and eight scores.

Clemson still has a good defense, but it has been susceptible to offenses a similar caliber to this Virginia Tech unit.  The Tigers allowed 36 points to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 43 to Pittsburgh.  I think Virginia Tech can come close to the 30-point mark in this one.

Clemson figures to hang a big number on what is a good VA Tech defense, but also one that has struggled at times this year.  The Hokies allowed 45 points to Tennessee, 31 to Syracuse, 36 to Pitt, 30 to Georgia Tech and 31 to Notre Dame, so they've given up at least 30 points five times.

Clemson should get to roughly 40 as we see somewhere in the neighborhood of a 40-30 final.  The Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their last five games while the Hokies have scored at least 34 points seven times against FBS foes this season.  VA Tech hung 52 on Virginia just last week to go along with 579 yards of total offense.

The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Tigers last five games overall.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in Hokies last five neutral site games.  The OVER is 6-2 in Hokies last eight games following a win of more than 20 points.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* LA Tech/WKU C-USA Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +10

This line is a classic overreaction from what happened the week before.  Western Kentucky won 60-6 at Marshall, easily covering the 28-point spread.  Louisiana Tech lost 24-39 at Southern Miss, not even coming close to covering the 14.5-point spread.

But last week's LA Tech result can be thrown out the window.  It had already clinched the C-USA West Division, so that was a clear letdown spot in a game that didn't matter.  And Southern Miss is a way better team than its record would indicate and treated that game like it was their Super Bowl.  The Bulldogs were clearly looking ahead to the C-USA Championship Game, and they'll bring their 'A' game this week.

Western Kentucky didn't have the same luxury of taking last week off.  It was in a first-place tie with Old Dominion for the East Division title, so it needed to beat Marshall, which is a team that quit in the second half of the season.  The motivated Hilltoppers took care of business like they were supposed to and won the East division on a tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head victory over Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky has played a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, which also has it overvalued.  The last four games have been against Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas and Marshall, who are a combined 15-33 on the season.  This is going to be a huge step up in class for the Hilltoppers.

The last two meetings between these teams have been decided by a field goal.  WKU won 41-38 at home in 2015 as 2.5-point dogs, while LA Tech won 55-52 as 2.5-point dogs back on October 6th earlier this season.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulldogs actually led that game 49-24 and had to hold on late for the victory.  They outgained the Hilltoppers 561 to 427 for the game, or by 134 total yards.

Ryan Higgins threw for 454 yards and five touchdowns in that first meeting with Western Kentucky.  He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country that many of you have probably never heard of.  He is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,706 yards with 34 touchdowns and seven interceptions while averaging 9.3 per attempt.

Higgins has two elite receivers on the outside who have had monster seasons.  Trent Taylor is the possession receiver, catching 113 balls for 1,462 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Carlos Henderson is the big-play guy, catching 63 balls for 1,204 yards and 16 scores.  With this high-powered offense, the Bulldogs are never going to be out of this game, and the back door is always going to be open if they fall behind early.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISIANA TECH) - in conference games, off an upset loss as a double digit favorite are 50-20 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Bulldogs are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on UNDER 58

I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between Washington and Colorado in the Pac-12 title game.  These are two of the best defenses in the Pac-12, and they are the reason these teams were able to make the championship game.  I think points will be at a premium here as both defenses come to play once again.

Washington gives up just 17.8 points per game, 329 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  It is holding opponents to 11.3 points, 82 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  Colorado gives up 18.7 points, 323 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  It is holding opponents to 11.0 points, 88 yards per game and 1.1 per play less than their season averages.

The Huskies rely heavily on their passing attack, but the Buffaloes have one of the best secondary's in the country.  The Huskies average 280 passing yards per game, while the Buffaloes allow just 186 passing yards per game, 5.4 per attempt and 48.5% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They actually have the manpower in the secondary to match up with John Ross and Dante Pettis, who have combined for 30 touchdown receptions for the Huskies this season.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Buffaloes last 13 conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffaloes last seven neutral site games. Washington is 12-2 UNDER when the total is between 56 and 63.5 over the past three seasons.  We're seeing an average of only 48.4 combined points per game in this spot.

The Buffaloes have held eight straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  The Huskies have held all 12 of their opponents to 27 points or fewer.  If both of those come true again in this game, then this one will easily stay UNDER the 58-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Cowboys/Vikings NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 44

It's well documented that the Vikings have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  In fact, they rank last in the league in total offense at 294.9 yards per game.  They are also last in the NFL in yards per play at 4.8 yards per play.

The Vikings have no running game as they rank last in the NFL at 71.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.  That means that a lot has been put on Sam Bradford's shoulders.  He has played well and hasn't turned the ball over much, but he just isn't able to stretch the field.

Last week against the Lions, the average distance of Bradford's pass attempts traveled 3.7 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That was tied for the lowest number of any team during the 2016 season.  Bradford is completing over 70% of his passes in his last four games, but the Vikings only have one play that has gone for 40 or more yards in those four contests.

So, the Vikings are essentially using their short passing game as their running game.  They are completing a high percentage of passes, but they aren't going for much yardage.  This works great for UNDERs because it keep the clock moving, just like a running game would.  But the Vikings just aren't getting many points to show for it.

The good news for the Vikings is that they can be competitive in this game because of their defense.  They rank 2nd in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) and 3rd in total defense at 307.0 yards per game allowed.  They are tied for 3rd with 4.9 yards per play allowed.  They have a tremendous defensive line that will not only slow down Ezekiel Elliott, but also give Dak Prescott more trouble than perhaps he has had all season with their blitzing.

Dallas is one of the few teams that actually runs the ball more than it throws it this season.  That should keep the clock moving as well, just as the Vikings will do with their limited, short passing attack.  I look for both teams to really struggle when they get down in the red zone.  The Cowboys haven't struggled in this area much this season, but the task is much taller against this Vikings' defense.

Dallas is 6-0 UNDER in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER  versus good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Dallas is 17-4 UNDER in its last 21 road games vs. good passing defenses that allow 5.7 or fewer yards per attempt.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 20-8-1 in Vikings last 29 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Packers/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Green Bay +4.5

The Green Bay Packers will be laying it all on the line tonight to try and get a victory to salvage their season.  They realize that with a win they are only two games back in the NFC North of the Detroit Lions, who they hold the tiebreaker with.  This division is still winnable, so not all is lost for the Packers.

Due to four straight losses, the Packers are to the point where they are as undervalued as they'll get this season.  We are getting them as 4.5-point underdogs, which is their biggest dog role this season and one of their biggest over the past couple seasons.  There's a good chance this game is decided by a field goal either way, so I like the value here. I also like the mental state of this team coming in.

"We have the right kind of men," head coach Mike McCarthy said. "This group of men, we're going to get to where we want to go. I'm fully confident in that. The process, the approach, the preparation, we're going to get this the way it needs to be. This locker room is awesome.

"We've got to win. We get that. It's about results. But everything leading up to that, I'm very pleased with. So we're just going to keep stoking our fire and we're going to do everything we need to do this week and prepare to go beat Philadelphia."

Despite being 5-5 on the season, the Eagles' playoff chances are no better than the Packers right now.  They have no chance of winning their division because the Cowboys are running away with it, so their only shot will be a wild card berth.  And after a 3-0 start, the Eagles have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall to fall back down to earth.  I don't think this team deserves to be laying 4.5 points against a team the caliber of the Packers with the way they're playing right now.

Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 54-21 (72%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  McCarthy is 27-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game as the coach of Green Bay.  McCarthy is 18-6 ATS off a 2-game road trip as the coach of Green Bay.  Roll with the Packers Monday.

25* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos are fresh off their bye week and tied with the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-3 on the season.  They know they cannot afford to lose this game if they want to win the division again, so they have certainly been focused over this bye week.

The bye came at a great time too because the Broncos were banged-up.  But now they are as healthy as they have been all season.  Fullback Andy Janovich had his cast removed and should be a receiving threat now while also aiding his lead blocking and blitz pickup.  Defensive end Derek Wolfe returned to practice after missing the last game, and CB Aqib Talib also returned to practice after sitting out since October 24th.

The Chiefs are as banged-up as they've been all season.  Linebacker Derrick Johnson is dealing with soreness in his Achilles tendon and is questionable.  The availability of wide receiver Jeremy Macin (groin), linebacker Dee Ford (hamstring), defensive tackle Dontari Pope (back), and running Charcandrick West (concussion) remains uncertain.  Cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) and linebacker Tamba Hali (knee) also had some limitations in practice in the days leading up to the game.

Kansas City's 7-3 record is very fraudulent.  It has the best turnover differential in the NFL at +13, which is unsustainable.  When you look at the numbers, it's easy to see that this team isn't very good.  That's why I faded them last week and took the Bucs +7.5 in an outright 19-17 win, and I'll gladly fade them again here as they are overvalued catching just three points against the defending Super Bowl champs on the road.

Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 39.9 yards per game on the season.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department, so the Chiefs are in some very poor company.  Their lackluster offense only averages 333.8 yards per game, and their defense has taken a big step back this year in giving up 373.7 yards. per game.  The Broncos' rushing attack should be able to exploit a KC defense that is giving up 121 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.

The Chiefs have been outgained in three straight and seven of their last nine games overall.  They were outgained by 99 yards by the Bucs last week.  They were outgained by 85 yards by the Panthers and won that game despite not scoring an offensive touchdown, which was very fluky as Carolina gave it away by blowing a 17-0 lead with turnovers.  And the Chiefs were very fortunate to beat the Jaguars 19-14 the previous week because they were outgained by a whopping 218 yards in that contest.

Denver is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  It is winning in this spot by an average of 8.0 points per game.  The Broncos are 8-1 ATS off a win by 6 points or less, coming back to win by 10.3 points per game in this spot.  The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Denver is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season winning by 6.8 points per game.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

15* Panthers/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Carolina +3

From a schedule standpoint I really like the Carolina Panthers this week.  They played last Thursday in a 23-20 win over the New Orleans Saints.  They have now had extra time to rest and prepare for the Oakland Raiders, and I expect a big effort from them here as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Panthers have been dominant since their 1-5 start and bye week.  They have gone 3-1 in their four games since and should be 4-0, but they blew a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs despite not giving up a defensive touchdown.  They have led by double-digits in all four games since their bye, though they have had some trouble closing out games, but that just adds to their value because they haven't been winning in blowouts.

Oakland could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now due to its 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS start to the season.  But the Raiders are a very fraudulent team as they have gone 6-1 in games decided by a TD or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They rank 3rd in turnover differential at +10, which is unsustainable.  The Panthers rank 24th at -5 and have been unlucky in that department.  The Raiders have actually been outgained by their opponents on the season as well.

The Raiders are in an awful spot this week.  They just played in Mexico City on Monday Night Football and were fortunate to beat the Texans 27-20 with more fourth-quarter heroics from Derek Carr and company.  That game was played in high altitude at over 7,000 feet above sea level, which is nearly 2,000 feat above Denver, the NFL's highest city.  That game surely took a lot out of the Raiders, and they had a long flight back and will be working on a short week.  Couple that with the fact the the Panthers have had extra rest, and you can see that the schedule makers did them no favors.

The Panthers are in must-win mode from here on out.  They are two games back of the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead with a realistic chance of catching them since they still get them at home later in the season.  The Raiders can afford a loss because they have a lead over both the Broncos and Chiefs in the division.  And I just can't help but think they are due for a stinker after getting so lucky in close games thus far.

This Oakland defense is one of the worst in the NFL this season.  It gives up 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play, ranking 29th in total defense and 32nd in defensive yards per play.  The Panthers will have a big edge on the ground in this one.  Oakland ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 4.6 yards per carry to opponents this season.  Carolina ranks 2nd in giving up just 3.5 yards per carry.

The Raiders don't have much off a home-field advantage at all.  In fact, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oakland is 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games with a total set of 49.5 or higher.  Oakland is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning percentage between 40% & 49% on the season.

Carolina is 61-32 ATS in its last 93 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game.  Ron Rivera is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of the last six games as the coach of Carolina.  He has never lost in this spot with the Panthers winning by 14.2 points per game on average.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Baltimore Ravens are sick and tired of losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.  They have lost five straight meetings in this series and haven't won since November 10, 2013, a span of 1,112 days.  With first place in the division on the line for the Ravens, and a chance to pretty much eliminate the Bengals from the race, they will be playing with extra motivation here Sunday.

"It's like that kid you just got to fight every day until you win," linebacker Terrell Suggs said. "They've been kind of picking on us. Five straight is five straight. Numbers don't lie. They've kind of had our number. We're going to see what we can do to change that."

"We're all tired of losing to the Bengals all the time," said linebacker C.J. Mosley, who has never beaten the Bengals. "That's the nature of football. You can talk about it all you want, but you got out there and do it Sunday."

Cincinnati is just 3-6-1 this season and 1.5 games behind Baltimore (5-5) and Pittsburgh (5-5).  Now the Bengals are in their worst shape of the season with all of the injuries they are dealing with.  They lost All-Pro WR AJ Green in last week's loss to the Bills, and there may not be a more important receiver in the league to their team than Green.  The Bengals just don't have any other weapons at wide receiver.

The Bengals also lost running back Giovani Bernard to a season-ending ACL tear against the Bills.  Bernard is probably the most underrated player on the team.  He has accounted for 337 rushing yards and is second on the team in receptions (39).  Bernard is one of the best third-down backs in the league with not only his ability as a pass-catcher, but also his blitz pickup as he's as good as anyone in that department.

Not to mention the Bengals could be without their most important defensive player in Vontaze Burfict, who is questionable with a neck injury.  I just think that this team is starting to realize their season is over because there is no recovering from all these key injuries.  Even if they do show up Sunday they don't have the manpower to be competitive.

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 295.1 yards per game and 1st against the run at 76.0 yards per game.  They only allow 14.4 points per game at home this season.  And their defense should get an even bigger boost this week with the return of pass-rusher Elvis Dumervil, who hasn't played in 49 days.

Green has been a thorn in the Ravens' side, so they're glad they won't be seeing him.  He has caught 41 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns in eight career games against Baltimore.  The Bengals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season, losing by 6.7 points per game on average.  The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. AFC North foes.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* Florida/Florida State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State -7.5

The Florida Gators are coming off a monstrous 16-10 win at LSU as 13.5-point underdogs that won them the SEC East for a second consecutive season.  The Gators deserve credit for gutting that win out, but they are now overvalued after such a huge victory, and this is a prime letdown spot even though it's against a rival like Florida State.

And that win over LSU was a complete fluke.  The Gators were outgained by 153 yards by the Tigers.  LSU had five trips into the Florida red zone and came away with 10 points.  They were held to one touchdown, one field goal, a missed field goal, and they were stopped on downs at the 1-yard line twice.

Florida's offense continues to be a problem.  The Gators managed just 270 total yards against LSU, and 36.2% of those came on one play on a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.  They were extremely lucky to win that game, and this is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to the 8-2 record against a soft schedule.

Florida is going to be much more concerned with saving up for next week's showdown with Alabama in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game than beating Florida State.  The Gators have a laundry list of injuries right now as they'll be without up to 7 key players on defense, and at least 2 starting offensive linemen.  Coming off that physical game against LSU, they aren't going to have much left in the tank here.

Florida State is better than its 8-3 record and is legitimately a Top 10 team in the country in my eyes.  Two of its three losses came by a combined five points to UNC and Clemson.  But I've been very impressed with the way this team has responded since that loss to Clemson when they easily could have packed it in.

They came back the following week a little flat, but beat NC State 24-20 on the road.  Then they absolutely crushed Boston College 45-7 at home as 20.5-point favorites before going on the road and thumping Syracuse 45-14 as 23-point favorites.  Those efforts show that this team wants to finish the season strong.  And they don't have to save up for the ACC Championship Game, instead they're focus is 100% on beating Florida.

Something other than pride is on the line for the Seminoles, too.  This is Senior Night, and the seniors are trying to accomplish something that no other class in program history has been able to do.  They are looking to finish their careers with an 8-0 sweep of rivals Florida and Miami.  All told, Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher is 12-1 against Miami and Florida since taking over the program in 2010.

"I think it means a lot to the seniors' legacy here, and the foundation that we set," Seminoles' senior cornerback Marquez White said of the possibility of going 8-0 against their two rivals. "This is my last time playing in this stadium. Last home game. This is the way I want to go out. This is the way I want to be remembered. So, it means a lot to have this opportunity."

Florida State is 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with Florida.  The Seminoles won 27-2 over the Gators on the road last season, and Florida was SEC East champs then as well.  Plays against road underdogs (FLORIDA) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Florida is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games followign a win.  The Seminoles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Jimbo Fisher is 8-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State, winning these games by 19.0 points per game on average.  LSU was a 13.5-point home favorite over Florida last week, and I believe FSU is every bit as good as LSU, and yet it is only laying 7.5 points here.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +7.5

The Tennessee Volunteers are in an awful spot this week.  They came into the season as the favorites to win the SEC East with all that they had coming back.  And coming into last week, it looked like they would be playing this game against Vanderbilt with a chance to clinch the SEC East.  But that hasn't happened.

That's because Florida was supposed to lose at LSU as two-touchdown underdogs last week.  But the Gators were having none of it.  They beat LSU 16-10 with a huge goal-line stand in the closing seconds.  Now Florida has already been crowned SEC East champs and will play Alabama in the championship game for a second straight season.

That's a gut punch for the Vols, who actually beat the Gators on the field and now will have to watch them play Bama in Atlanta instead of them.  I don't see them showing up at all this week.  This is a team that has been decimated by injuries all season, too, and they are far from full strength right now.

Vanderbilt has a lot to play for.  The Commodores are 5-6 and looking to get to a bowl game for the first time in three seasons under current head coach Derek Mason.  They have put themselves in this position by impressively upsetting Ole Miss 38-17 at home last week as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Rebels by 118 yards in that contest.

Tennessee is off a 63-37 win over Missouri last week when it still had something to play for, but that result has it overvalued here.  And that 26-point win was very misleading as the Vols were actually outgained by 131 yards while giving up a ridiculous 740 total yards to the Tigers.

This Vols' defense has been gashed time and time again on the ground.  They have given up 353 or more rushing yards in four of their last six games, including over 400 yards on the grounds three times during this stretch.  Vanderbilt has one of the best backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb, who is primed for a huge game against this soft, banged-up Tennessee defense.

Five of Vanderbilt's six losses this season have come by single-digits, so they have been competitive week in and week out.  Tennessee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off a cover the previous week.  The Vols are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.  I believe the Commodores earn their way to a bowl game with an outright victory this week, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +8

West Virginia is coming off a 'dream-crushing' 28-56 home loss to Oklahoma last week.  Had they won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the Big 12.  But now they have officially been eliminated as they have two conference losses and the Sooners haven't lost yet in conference play.

"We put a lot into (the Oklahoma) game, and it didn't go the way we wanted it to," Holgorsen said Tuesday. "We're disappointed with it, but we've got a tough one on the road against Iowa State, and you saw what they did to Texas Tech. It's going to be the toughest week of the year, but I'm anxious to see how the guys respond."

I expect the Mountaineers to suffer a hangover effect here and to not even show up at all against Iowa State.  I also think this is one of the more overrated teams in the country due to playing such a soft schedule and winning so many close games to pad their record.  That was pretty evident last week when they took a step up in class and lost to Oklahoma by 28.

Iowa State has been a money-making machine for backers as it has been undervalued week in and week out.  The Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes a 3-point loss to Baylor as 17.5-point dogs, a 7-point loss to Oklahoma State as 14-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Oklahoma as 21-point dogs.  Those three results there show that they can play with the big boys of the Big 12.

But the Cyclones keep getting better and better as they season goes on.  After picking up their first Big 12 victory in a 31-24 win at Kansas, they came through with their best performance of the season last week in a 66-10 blowout of Texas Tech as 3-point home dogs.  They racked up 608 yards of offense while limiting the Red Raiders' potent attack to 306 yards, outgaining them by 302 yards in that contest.

Now it's Senior Day for the Cyclones and they want to win one more game before their season is over as this is their final game, while West Virginia gets to play Baylor next week.  I just think this is a tremendous spot to back the Cyclones as they will be fully engaged, while the Mountaineers are primed to play their worst game of the season given the terrible spot they're in mentally right now.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.  Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games off two straight games where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS off a loss over the last two years.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  These six trends combine for a 36-1 system backing the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -10

The South Florida Bulls are tied with the Temple Owls for first place in the AAC East Division.  They Owls do have the tiebreaker and would need to lose to East Carolina for the Bulls to have a chance.  But I like the fact that the Bulls play early on Saturday at 12:00 EST while Temple plays at 7:30 EST that night.  So the Bulls know they have to take care of their business first and won't be worrying about what Temple is doing.  They will be 100% focused on beating UCF.

Since losing to Temple, the Bulls have responded in a big way by beating Navy 52-45 at home in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led that game 42-14 at halftime before taking their foot off the gas.  Then they had their bye week before going on the road and beating Memphis 49-42.  Then they won 35-27 at SMU last week.

UCF is a great story as it went 0-12 last season and then picked up its 6th win with a 24-3 home victory two weeks ago over a Cincinnati team that has clearly quit.  The Knights are just happy with being bowl eligible, and that showed last week as they lost 20-35 at home to Tulsa despite being 1.5-point favorites.  They were thoroughly outplayed by Tulsa as they were outgained by 153 yards.

In fact, the Knights have been an extremely fraudulent team all season.  They have been outgained in each of their last seven games despite finding a way to win four of them.  They are getting outgained by 94.0 yards per game in conference play despite their 4-3 record.

The mismatch in this game is on offense, where the Knights are terrible and the Bulls have one of the best units in the country.  The Knights only average 358 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.  The Bulls average 43.2 points per game, 516.2 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this year.

UCF puts up just 312.4 yards per game and 4.5 per play in conference action, while South Florida averages 524.6 yards per game and 7.3 per play in AAC action.  The Bulls average 117 yards per game more than their opponents allow, which is the sixth-best number in the nation.  They had a trio of QB Quinton Flowers, RB Marlon Mack and WR Rodney Adams that is one of the best triplets in the country.

South Florida rolled UCF 44-3 on the road last season as 24.5-point favorites.  The Bulls are every bit as good as they were last year, and while the Knights are improved this season, again their 6-5 record is fraudulent.  Now the Bulls are only 10-point favorites at home in the rematch after being 24.5-point road chalk last year.  There is clearly some value here, especially with what's at stake for the Bulls in the AAC, while UCF is simply content with going to a bowl game.

Plays on home favorites (S FLORIDA) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in all home games over the last two seasons, winning by 19.2 points per game on average.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +26

Kentucky will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2010.  The Wildcats have had a great turnaround season after starting 0-2 and going 6-3 the rest of the way.  They clinched their bowl berth with a 49-13 win over Austin Peay last week and didn't have to put much effort into that game at all, saving up for Louisville this week.

The Wildcats are 5-6 the past two seasons going into the Louisville game, needing a win to get bowl eligible.  The played the Cardinals tough in both games as they lost 40-44 in 2014 and 24-38 in 2015.  They fell apart in both of those games late, especially last season as they blew a 24-7 lead and were outscored 31-0 in the second half.

But now the Wildcats won't be playing with so much pressure on them since they already clinched their bowl berth.  They will be sort of 'free-wheeling' it here and playing with house's money.  I expect a big effort from them here as they look to get revenge on Louisville after narrow misses the past two seasons.

Louisville is in a massive letdown spot here off its 10-36 loss to Houston as 17-point favorites last week.  The Cardinals were in perfect position to make the four-team playoff after getting several teams to lose in front of them.  But they couldn't take care of their business, and now with their playoff dreams crushed, I expect a hangover effect here that will not allow them to play up to their full potential.

Kentucky is playing better than it is getting credit for.  It has actually outgained seven of its last nine opponents.  The Wildcats boast a prolific rushing attack that has produced at least 258 yards on the ground in five of their last six games.  They have two stud running backs who have both gone over 1,000 rushing yards on the season.  I think they'll be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack and play keep away from Lamar Jackson.

Louisville is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games off a road loss.  The Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in.  Kentucky hasn't lost to Louisville by more than 25 points in any of the last nine meetings, making for a 9-0 system backing the Wildcats pertaining to this 26-point spread.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

15* Washington/Washington State Apple Cup No-Brainer on UNDER 64

I fully expect a defensive battle in the Apple Cup with what's at stake.  These teams have never had this much riding on the rivalry.  The Pac-12 North title is up for grabs as the winner will be going to the conference championship game.  I expect this game to be played closer to the vest than normal, and for points to be very hard to come by.

Washington boasts one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 17.9 points, 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play.  It is holding opponents to 10 points, 73 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season averages.

The biggest reason for Washington State's improvement has been the defense.  The Cougars are now above average on this side of the ball for the first time in a long time.  They only give up 25.5 points and 408 yards per game, holding opponents to 6.3 points and 34 yards per game less than their season averages.

Washington State loves to throw the ball, but Washington ranks No. 17 in pass efficiency defense.  The Huskies have held their opponents to 85 yards per game below their season averages in Pac-12 play.  The Cougars rank 49th in pass efficiency defense and have held their conference opponents to 25 yards per game below their season averages.

Just looking at the series history it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings while not once topping 63 combined points.  They have combined for 55, 44, 44, 59, 59, 63, 30 and 29 points in the last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 47.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than this posted total of 64.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WASHINGTON ST) - after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 23-3 (88.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* TCU/Texas Big 12 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas -2.5

It's clear by their reaction on social media that the Texas players love Charlie Strong and don't want to see him go.  They are taking responsibility for their struggles this season and not putting the blame on Strong.  I look for them to come up with a huge effort to try and win this game for him in what is a 'rally the troops' type of game for these players.

There's no doubt that Texas can't lose to Kansas, ever, period.  But the the Jayhawks didn't win that game, the Longhorns clearly lost it.  They committed six turnovers to essentially give the game away.  They outgained the Jayhawks by 71 yards in that game after outgaining West Virginia by 153 yards and Texas Tech by 176 the two games prior.

Let's not forget that TCU easily could have lost at Kansas earlier this season, too.  The Horned Frogs only beat the Jayhawks 24-23 as 28.5-point favorites.  But unlike Texas, they were actually outplayed by the Jahawks.  They were outgained by 108 yards in that narrow win over Kansas.

TCU has given a lot of flat efforts here of late, going 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has been outgained in four of its last six games overall.  It lost 24-27 (OT) at home to Texas Tech, 10-34 at West Virginia, and then last week lost 6-31 at home to Oklahoma State.  That game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Horned Frogs were outgained by 198 yards by the Cowboys.

Texas will not only be motivated to show its support for Strong, but also to get bowl eligible with a win.  TCU can win next week at home against Kansas State and get bowl eligible, so this game is more important for the Longhorns.  Plus, they want revenge from the embarrassing 7-50 road loss to the Horned Frogs last season.

Strong is 11-2 ATS off two more more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.  The Longorns are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season.  The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in all games this season.  TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) - off a home loss by 14 or more points are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Texas Friday.

15* CFB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +11

The NC State Wolfpack sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They would love nothing more than to punch their tickets to the postseason while simultaneously knocking rival UNC out of ACC Coastal Division contention with a win Friday.  But it's not like the Tar Heels have much of a shot to win the Coastal anyway because they would need to win and have Virginia Tech lose to Virginia as 18.5-point home favorites.

I think the value is prime here with NC State because they have lost five of their last six games overall.  Ever since blowing that field goal against Clemson and losing in overtime, they just haven't been the same.  But this is a 'circle the wagons' type of game that the Wolfpack will certainly show up for against their in-state rival.

The Tar Heels seem to just be going through the motions their past two games.  They lost 27-28 as 10.5-point favorites at Duke two weeks ago and were outgained by 64 yards.  Then they were actually outgained by 15 yards against The Citadel last week as 23-point favorites in what was a very misleading final score.

From a matchup standpoint I like the Wolfpack here.  They have an underrated defense that is holding opponents to 58 yards per game less than their season averages.  UNC is giving up 6 more yards per game than its opponents average.  And the Wolfpack defensive line is their strength with their ability to get after opposing quarterbacks.  They should be able to get to Mitch Trubisky and knock him off his spots.

These teams have faced very similar strength of schedules.  In fact, the Wolfpack have played the toughest schedule.  That's important because North Carolina is only outgaining opponents by 43 yards per game while NC State is outgaining them by 62 yards per game on the season.  The talent gap between these teams is much closer than their records would suggest.

This is certainly a rivalry game where you want the underdog.  The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings with 12 outright upsets over the past 18 seasons!  NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the past three seasons.  Roll with NC State Friday.

15* LSU/Texas A&M Thanksgiving Night Dessert on LSU -6.5

Both of these teams could be lacking motivation. It comes down to which team you trust more, and for me that is clearly LSU, which is still one of the best teams in the country in my opinion despite having four losses. Texas A&M is way more fraudulent despite having a better record at 8-3.

The Aggies have been an overvalued commodity for two months now, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their last three games really have told the story about where this team’s focus is at. They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, lost 28-29 as 7-point home favorites over Ole Miss, and only beat UTSA 23-10 as 27-point home favorites last week.

Things really turned for this team when they lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a season-ending injury against Mississippi State. Backup Jake Hubenak isn’t terrible, but he’s also not the runner that Knight was. Their offense clearly misses that dimension as Knight had rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 per carry before the injury. Hubenak has rushed 31 times for 44 yards, an average of just 1.4 per carry.

LSU has four losses, but it easily could have won all four games. It lost 14-16 to Wisconsin, 13-18 to Auburn after a last-second TD was called back, 10-0 to Alabama in what was a tie game in the fourth quarter, and then 10-16 to Florida last week after the Tigers were stopped from the 1-yard line twice in the closing seconds.

I think that loss to Florida last week has the Tigers undervalued here. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game and didn’t meet expectations. But they probably should have won by two touchdowns when you look at the box score. They outgained Florida 423 to 270 for the game, or by 153 total yards. But they were stopped at the goal line on two separate drives, and Florida converted one of those into a fluky 98-yard touchdown pass down the sidelines.

These players love Ed Orgeron, and similarly to when they won last year when Les Miles was expected to get fired, I think they will show up for their interim head coach here. They have responded well from adversity. After that 10-0 loss to Alabama and having their SEC West title dreams crushed, they came back the next week and rolled Arkansas 38-10 on the road while outgaining the Razorbacks by 256 yards.

When you compare common opponents LSU has a big edge. The Tigers are 3-2 against the same five teams that Texas A&M has played while outgaining them by 64.0 yards per game and holding them to 319.4 yards per game. Texas A&M is 2-3 against those same five teams, getting outgained by 66.8 yards per game and giving up 481.0 yards per game.

LSU is by far the supremely talented team in this matchup, and it has big fundamental advantages as well. The Tigers should be able to run all over the Aggies, and their defense should shut them down with a backup QB. The Tigers average 232 rushing yards per game and 6.2 per carry, while the Aggies give up 180 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.

LSU gives up 14.1 points and 308 yards per game on the season, while Texas A&M allows 21.1 points and 428 yards per game. The Tigers only allow 14.6 points and 304.6 yards per game in conference play, while the Aggies give up 26.9 points and 495.3 yards per game against conference opponents.

Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Aggies are 0-7 ATS in November home games over the last three seasons. LSU owns Texas A&M, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Four of those have come with Kevin Sumlin as the head coach in College Station.  Roll with LSU Thursday.

20* Redskins/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +7

The Cowboys have always been a public team. That has been even more so the case this season as they have actually delivered for backers on a regular basis. Not only are they 9-1 straight up, but they are also 9-0-1 against the spread. They are the only team left in the NFL that has not lost ATS all season.

They have barely escaped with covers in three of their last four games. They covered in OT with a touchdown against the Eagles as 5-point home favorites. The Steelers missed four two-point conversions, otherwise that game would have played out much differently as the Cowboys won 35-30 and covered the 3-point spread. And then they added a field goal in the closing seconds against the Ravens last week to win 27-17 as 7-point favorites.

I think it is time to fade the Cowboys this week. They cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to their incredible ATS record, and now they’re being asked to lay a full touchdown against a division rival in the Washington Redskins. And I would argue that the Redskins are the next-best team in the NFC East, and not very far behind the Cowboys.

The Redskins just keep getting better and better. After an 0-2 start, they have gone 6-1-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But unlike the Cowboys, this team continues to lack respect from the betting public and the oddsmakers. They are winning the box score every week, so it has been no fluke.

The Redskins have outgained each of their last six opponents by an average of 101.0 yards per game. They won 16-10 in Baltimore and outgained them by four yards, they won 27-20 over Philadelphia and outgained them by 254 yards, they lost 17-20 at Detroit despite outgaining them by 69 yards, they tied the Bengals 27-27 in London despite outgaining them by 131 yards, they beat the Vikings 26-20 and outgained them by 57 yards, and last week they won 42-24 over the Packers while outgaining them by 91 yards.

This Washington offense can score on anyone. The Redskins have put up 451.8 yards per game in their last five games overall. They are second in the NFL with 6.4 offensive yards per play on the season, which is only behind the Atlanta Falcons. Kirk Cousins is playing as well as anyone at the quarterback position, but the key is that they have found a running game.

The Redskins have rushed for an average of 148.6 yards per game in their last five contests. Robert Kelley has emerged as the lead back and rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns against the Packers last week. He is a fierce runner who doesn’t go down easily. He has rushed for 424 yards and four scores while averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season.

The final point I want to make here is that home-field advantage means nothing in this series. The road team is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Dallas. They will be playing with revenge from their 27-23 loss to the Cowboys earlier this season, and I expect this game to be decided by less than a touchdown once again.  Bet the Redskins Thursday.

15* Vikings/Lions Thanksgiving Day No-Brainer on UNDER 43

I don’t see a whole lot of value in the side of this game as I feel it is priced about right. But I am seeing some value with the total here of 43 points and playing it UNDER the number. I look for this to be a very low scoring game on Thanksgiving Day.

This is a battle between two of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Vikings rank 32nd in the league in total offense at 293.8 yards per game, while the Lions rank 25th at 331.7 yards per game.

The Vikings do have one of the elite defenses in the NFL as they rank 2nd in scoring defense at 17.6 points per game and 3rd in total defense at 306.9 yards per game. The Lions are a respectable 16th in scoring defense at 22.5 points per game and 19th in total defense at 358.2 yards per game.

I think the fact that Arizona and Minnesota combined for 54 points last week has the books setting this number higher than it should be. But that 30-24 final was very misleading. The Vikings were held to just 217 yards of offense, but they got a 100-yard interception return TD and a 104-yard kickoff return TD. The Cardinals only had 290 yards of offense in the game.

These teams are very familiar with each other as they are obviously division opponents, but they also just squared off on November 6th in their first meeting of the season. That game was tied 16-16 at the end of regulation before the Lions won 22-16 in overtime for 38 combined points. The Lions had done nothing on offense until their final two possessions where they drove down for the game-tying field goal in a matter of seconds, and then the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

And this division rivalry has certainly seen its fair share of low-scoring games recently. Indeed, the UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings while exceeding 42 combined points only once. They have averaged just 34 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is 9 points less than this total of 43.

The UNDER is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North opponents. The UNDER is 7-0 in Vikings last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 19-8-1 in Vikings lat 28 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lions last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio) -7

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks are looking to pull off the remarkable feat of starting 0-6 and finishing 6-0.  They currently sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  You can bet they will be fired up to win this game on Senior Night and cap off this amazing run.

Ball State has nothing to play for right now.  It sits at 4-7 on the season after a road loss at Toledo, which was its fourth straight defeat, so it will not be going bowling.  And the Cardinals last played on November 16, while the Redhawks last played on November 12, giving Miami a huge scheduling advantage as it has had nine days off in between games, while Ball State has only had five days off.

It was really clear from the beginning that Miami was better than its 0-6 start as it actually outgained four of its first six opponents despite the record.  And now once the schedule has softened a bit, the Redhawks have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games with four of those wins coming by double-digits.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams.  Ball State and Miami have played the same four opponents. Ball State is 1-3 against them while losing by 2.5 points per game and giving up 508.0 yards per game defensively.  Miami is 3-1 against them while winning by 5.5 points per game and giving up only 333.0 yards per game defensively.

And defense is clearly where this game will be one as the Redhawks will get stops while the Cardinals will not.  Miami allows just 24.7 points, 347 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  Ball State allows 30.9 points, 474 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this year.

Ball State is 0-6 ATS off a road loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Miami is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their lat five games overall.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Redhawks.  Take Miami (Ohio) Tuesday.

20* Texans/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Oakland -5.5

The Oakland Raiders are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now.  They  have absolutely dominated the box score and the scoreboard in their last two games as they keep improving, and now they've had a bye week to make even further improvements and prepare for Houston in this Mexico City showdown.

The Raiders beat the Bucs 30-24 on the road in overtime in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained the Bucs by 356 yards in that contest.  Then they outgained the Broncos by 98 yards in a 30-20 home victory last time out.

Oakland boasts one of the league's top offenses as it is averaging 27.2 points and 401 yards per game this season.  It has put up at least 30 points in three consecutive games coming in.  It has a huge advantage on that side of the ball over the Texans, who rank 30th in total offense at 308.8 yards per game and 29th in scoring offense at 17.9 points per game.

And the Raiders have really improved defensively over the past couple games.  They held the Bucs to just 270 total yards before giving up just 299 to the Raiders last time out.  This defense has the talent, so it was only a matter of time before they got it turned around.

The Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in road games this season.  The Texans are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games, getting outscored by 15.0 points per game.  Their offense is averaging just 11.5 points and 260.5 yards per game away from home.  Their only road win came against the Jaguars 24-21 in a game they should have lost last week as they were outgained by 54 yards.

Oakland is 9-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games.  While the Raiders are extremely healthy right now, the Texans have a laundry list of injuries coming into this one.  Bet the Raiders  Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the NFL this season.  They have gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and they lead the NFL in turnover differential with an insane plus-14 margin.  If not for the good breaks in the turnover department, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

That was clearly on display last week as the Chiefs came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Panthers 20-17 by outscoring them 17-0 in the final quarter.  The Panthers simply gave that game away as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, and Kelvin Benjamin fumbled in his own territory to set up the Chiefs' game-winning field goal.

The Chiefs rank 29th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 33.3 yards per game.  Only the Colts, Browns and 49ers rank worse.  They have been outgained in six of their last eight games overall.  They were even outgained by 218 yards by the Jaguars at home two weeks ago, yet somehow found a way to win 19-14 in another game they should have lost.

Coming off their fifth straight victory, the Chiefs are way overvalued now here as 7.5-point favorites.  That was a huge win at Carolina, and with a road game at Denver on deck next week, that makes this a sandwich game and a tough spot for the Chiefs.  I don't expect them to be laying it all on the line this week, and I certainly don't expect them to win by more than a touchdown, let alone win the game at all.

The Tampa Bay Bucs have new life now following their most dominant win of the season, a 36-10 home victory over the Chicago Bears in which their defense forced four turnovers and held the Bears to just 283 total yards.  Now the Bucs only trail the Falcons by two games in the division after Atlanta lost last week.

Doug Martin returned to the lineup last week, and he's one of the more underrated running backs in the league.  When he has been healthy, the Bucs have been tough to stop.  They put up 360 yards on the Bears last week, and James Winston had one of his best games.  he completed 23 of 33 passes for 312 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

The Chiefs have been abysmal on offense this season.  Alex Smith averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt against the Panthers last week and had only one completion of more than 20 yards.  He did not throw a touchdown pass, but did throw an interception.  Their lack of explosive plays makes them way too predictable because Smith hasn't been able to stretch the field, and that's not going to magically change this week.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games.  The Bucs are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 11.  Tampa Bay is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Kansas City is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Chiefs are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Buccaneers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in must-win mode following four straight losses.  They likely would have beaten the Cowboys last week had they not gone for four two-point conversions and misses all four, instead kicking the extra points as that game would have played out much differently.

The Steelers aren't broken because they have actually outgained each of their last three opponents despite the losses.  Ben Roethlisberger finally looked healthy last week as he threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns without an interceptions against the Cowboys, clearly holding up his end of the bargain.  And I expect Roethlisberger and the Steelers to hang a big number against the Cleveland defense.

The Browns rank 31st in both scoring defense and total defense, giving up 30 points per game and 419 total yards per game.  And Cleveland doesn't have the firepower to keep up offensively.  The Browns rank just 28th in the NFL in total offense and have been held back by their quarterback play.

Hue Jackson decided to go with Cody Kessler over Josh McCown the last two weeks to see if he has a future with the team.  The answer is clearly a resounding 'NO', and it shows that the Browns don't care about winning as McCown would give them a much greater chance to do that.

They were held to 10 points and 222 total yards against the Cowboys in a 25-point loss two weeks ago, and just 7 points and 144 total yards against the Ravens last week.  Cleveland is just 2-8 against the spread this season, and 0-7 against the spread as a home underdog over the last two seasons, losing by an average of 15.0 points per game.  The books haven't been able to set their numbers high enough.

The Steelers crushed the Browns in both meetings last season, winning by 21 at home and 16 on the road.  They can't afford to overlook the Browns this week after four straight losses.  I think another double-digit victory can be expected here given the situation.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens +7.5

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season.  They haven't lost once against the spread this season.  The betting public is all over the Cowboys now and it's clear that they are way overvalued moving forward.  It's time to sell high on the Cowboys this week.

I like getting a full touchdown with the Ravens here.  Baltimore games have been extremely close over the past few seasons.  A ridiculous 23 of their last 26 games have been decided by eight points or less, so essentially just one score.  I also like the fact that they are getting extra time to prepare for this game after dominating the Browns by 21 last Thursday.  John Harbaugh is 15-3 straight up when given at least 10 days to prepare for a team.

The Ravens have a chance to pull off the upset in this game because of their defense.  They rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 282 yards per game.  They also rank 1st in the NFL against the run, giving up just 71 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  They should be able to slow down Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' rushing attack.

I also question the Cowboys motivation this week.  They are coming off a huge road win against the Steelers in which they were lucky to win because the Steelers beat themselves by going for four two-point conversions and missing on all four.  Had they simply kicked the extra point on all four, that game would have played out much differently.

So, the Cowboys are in a letdown spot off that huge win, plus they have a big divisional game against the Redskins on deck Thursday on Thanksgiving.  I think they could be overlooking the Ravens just enough this week to not only fail to cover this 7.5-point spread, but likely lose this game outright.

Jason Garrett is 10-24 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Dallas is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 home games overall.  The Ravens are 14-4-3 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Ravens Sunday.

15* USC/UCLA Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA +13.5

The USC Trojans are coming off their biggest win of the season last week.  They beat then-No. 4 Washington 26-13 as 10-point road underdogs with ESPN's College Game Day on site.  Now they're primed for a huge letdown here as they take on UCLA the following week.

The Trojans have become way overvalued now due to going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Give them credit for turning things around, but the only impressive win was Washington as they played four home games and Arizona as their only other road game during this stretch.

UCLA is looking at this game likes its 'Super Bowl' this week.  Things haven't gone how the Bruins had hoped, but they certainly aren't as bad as their 4-6 record would indicate.  In fact, all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, and that fact alone makes me love getting 13.5 points with them here.

The Bruins will be up for this game because they still have a chance to make a bowl if they can win their final two games.  And they play Cal next week, so that's very possible.  Plus, they would like to put a damper on their biggest rivals' season here by beating USC and ending their winning streak.  And the Trojans have only a very small chance of playing in the Pac-12 title game, so they don't have a whole lot to play for the rest of the way.

UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country, which gives it a chance to pull off the upset.  The UCLA pass defense is 6th in the country in efficiency.  It has only allowed eight touchdown passes all season with 13 interceptions while giving up only 5.5 yards per attempt.  The Bruins will be perhaps Sam Darnold's biggest test yet because of this pass defense.

Jim Mora is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against USC as the head coach at UCLA, with the three covers coming by an average of 18 points per game.  The home team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to UCLA.

Plays against a road team (USC) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Trojans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Roll with UCLA Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Florida PK

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane lost their second controversial game last week.  They fell 31-38 at Houston earlier this season, and then they lost 40-42 at Navy last week.  Now the Golden Hurricane essentially have no chance of winning the AAC West division.  With that realization this week, I fully expect them to suffer a hangover effect from the Navy loss.

And the UCF Knights are one of the best stories this season.  They didn't win a single game last year, but now former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost has them sitting at 6-4 and ready to go bowling.  And now this is Senior Day for a group of veterans that can take some huge responsibility for this turnaround.  They atmosphere will be great for the home team Saturday.

And UCF has really impressed me this year.  Its only blowout loss came at Michigan in the second game of the season.  The other three losses have come to Maryland (in OT), Temple (by 1) and Houston (by 7 on the road).  Temple and Houston are probably the two best teams in the AAC in my opinion, and they easily could have beaten them both.

But the Knights just keep getting better.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Tulane (37-6) and Cincinnati (24-3).  They have by far the superior defense in this matchup as they only allow 20.6 points per game, 360 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  Tulsa gives up 32.1 points per game, 435 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play.

UCF actually played Tulsa tough last year despite going 0-12.  The Knights lost 30-45 on the road as 17-point dogs.  They were only outgained by 13 yards in that contest.  And they won 31-7 at home over Tulsa in 2014.  I think they get their revenge from last season's loss against a Tulsa team in a terrible frame of mind right now.

The Knights are 8-2 ATS in all games this season, 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings as well, so home-field advantage has been huge.  Take Central Florida Saturday.

25* College Football BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -4

Colorado has been the single-most underrated team in college football this season.  They have gone 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread as the lines have just failed to catch up with them.  Their only non-cover was a 10-point home win over UCLA as 13.5-point favorites a few weeks ago.  I love this team and I've backed them a few times this season without fading them once.

I love the situation in this game as well.  Colorado is in control of its own destiny to win the Pac-12 South.  If they win out against Washington State and Utah at home the next two games, the Buffaloes will be going to the conference championship game.

Conversely, Washington State essentially has nothing to play for this week.  The Cougars can lose this game and then beat Washington next week and win the Pac-12 North.  And I can't help but think they'll be looking ahead to that Apple Cup showdown given the situation.

Colorado's only two losses this season both came on the road at Michigan and at USC, but they played both teams tough and covered the spread in each.  The Buffaloes are 4-0 at home and winning by a whopping 31 points per game this season.

The staple of the Buffaloes has been their defense, which is one of the best in the country.  They are only giving up 18 points and 307 yards per game.  They're holding opponents to 10 points and 91 yards per game less than their season averages, and they have a tremendous pass rush.  They have forced a turnover in an FBS-best 23 consecutive games coming in.

The Buffaloes certainly have the recipe to slow down Luke Falk and Washington State's Air Raid passing attack.  They have one of the best secondary's in the land with a couple of NFL prospects.  They only give up 175 passing yards per game and 50% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  They rank 4th in the country in pass efficiency defense.  And they get a break here because Cougars star receiver River Cracraft (53 receptions, 701 yards, 5 TDs) is now out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

There's a reason why Washington State is only No. 22 in the playoff rankings while Colorado is No. 10.  It's because the Cougars have faced such an easy schedule this season.  They haven't had to play Colorado, USC or Washington yet, which are the three best teams in the conference.  This will be by far the Cougars' toughest test of the season to date.  I really like the Buffaloes as only 4-point favorites here, especially given the motivational angles in terms of winning the Pac-12.

Washington State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more.  Colorado is 8-0 ATS when playing on Saturday this season.  Mike Leach is 3-12 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive straight up wins in all games he has coached.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana +23

Indiana's 31-45 loss to Penn State was very misleading last week.  The Hoosiers actually led by 3 with under four minutes to play, but then gave up 17 unanswered points in the final four minutes, including a sack-fumble that was returned for a touchdown on one of the final plays of the game.  But that misleading final has created some line value here with Indiana.

Many feel that Michigan is going to bounce back from its loss to Iowa in a big way, but Indiana is no pushover.  The Hoosiers have played the best teams in the Big Ten tough over the past two seasons.  I love the Hoosiers in the big underdog role.  I cashed them as 28.5-point underdogs in a 21-point loss at Ohio State, which was a closer game than the final score as well.  It was also by far the most that Indiana has lost any game this season.

Indiana still needs another win to get bowl eligible.  And the Hoosiers have not forgotten what happened to them against Michigan last year.  They gave up a touchdown with only 2 seconds left in regulation and wound up losing in double-overtime.  They want revenge here and would love to ruin Michigan's season.

Everyone expected John O'Korn to win the starting QB job for Michigan in the offseason.  So the fact that Wilton Speight won it says a lot about what Jim Harbaugh thinks of O'Korn.  It's a big downgrade for the Wolverines now that Speight is out for the season with a broken collarbone suffered in that 13-14 loss at Iowa.

I expect a very conservative game plan for the Wolverines' offense this week, which is going to make it even tougher for them to cover this big number.  That means the Wolverines are going to run the ball more and take the ball out of O'Korn's hands.  And Indiana has been tremendous against the run.  The Hoosiers give up 156 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against opponents that average 183 yards per game and 4.5 per carry, holding opponents to 27 yards per game and 0.8 per carry less than their season averages.

The Hoosiers are outgaining conference opponents by 37 yards per game this season.  Their offense averages 6.1 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play.  Their defense gives up 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Hoosiers are much better than they are getting credit for here.

And with their 'game of the year' against Ohio State on deck, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wolverines looking ahead to that game at least a little this week.  Michigan is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset loss as a favorite.  Take Indiana Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +9.5

The Pittsburgh Panthers are in a huge letdown spot this week after their 43-42 upset road victory over the No. 2 Clemson Tigers as 21-point underdogs.  Now they are 6-4 on the season and have their bowl game wrapped up, but they can't win the Coastal Title.  It's their biggest win in a decade since they upset West Virginia in 2007.

Duke is also coming off a huge upset win over rival North Carolina 28-27 as 11-point underdogs.  However, I don't expect a letdown from the Blue Devils because they sit at 4-6 and still need two more wins to get bowl eligible.  Plus, they beat UNC last Thursday, giving them a few extra days to get over that win and move on to Pittsburgh.

Duke is year in and year out one of the most underrated teams in college football because head coach David Cutcliffe absolutely gets the most out of his players.  And the Blue Devils have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, beating Army 13-6 as 5-point favorites, losing to Louisville by 10 as 35-point dogs, losing to Georgia Tech by 3 as 6.5-point dogs, losing to VA Tech by 3 as 13-point dogs, and then upsetting UNC as 11-point dogs.

The Blue Devils are 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games as an underdog.  The Panthers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorites.  And one thing that's getting overlooked here is the loss of Pitt's best player on defense in safety Jordan Whitehead.  He led the team in tackles last year, and he leads them in tackles again this season, so his season-ending loss suffered against Clemson is a huge blow.

Pittsburgh definitely deserved to cover against Clemson last week, but that was a very misleading final score.  The Panthers were outgained by 166 yards by Clemson and gave up 630 total yards.  Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions in the end zone when the Tigers were going in to score.

I really like what I've seen from this Duke offense of late.  Quarterback Daniel Jones is getting better and better.  He has 267 rushing yards and 693 passing yards the last three weeks alone.  Jones opened the season with six touchdowns against eight interceptions, but he has a 6-to-1 ratio since and will be up against a Pitt defense that ranks 110th against the pass while allowing 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.

Pitt has just one win by more than 3 points this season over a Power 5 school.  The dog is 3-0 ATS in this series.  Pitt is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons.  The Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 8 or more yards per attempt this season.  Take Duke Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana-Monroe +25.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers just had their dreams of winning the Sun Belt crushed last week with a heartbreaking 24-28 road loss to the Troy Trojans.  Now they can only play for a share of the title at best, and would need Arkansas State to lose to get that.

The Mountaineers aren't going to bring the kind of effort it's going to take to beat Louisiana Monroe by more than 25.5 points Saturday.  They'd be plenty content with just winning the game, and even that may be a struggle with the mental state they are in right now.

Louisiana-Monroe is a team that has been steadily improving as the season has gone on.  The Warhawks are coming off back-to-back big upset victories to prove that they have not quit.  They beat South Alabama 42-35 as 9.5-point road underdogs, and Georgia State 37-23 as 12.5-point road underdogs.

South Alabama actually beat San Diego State by 18 points at home earlier this season while also knocking off Mississippi State on the road, so that win over the Jaguars was impressive.  And Appalachian State beat Georgia State by 14 at home, while Monroe beat them by 14 on the road.

There's no question Appalachian State is the better team here, but being 25.5 points better is another story.  These teams have four common opponents this season.  Appalachian State is 4-0 against them winning by 20 points per game and outgaining them by 180 yards per game.  Monroe is 2-2 against them, outscoring them by 4 points per game and outgaining them by 50 yards per game.  By those common opponent Appalachian State has been 16 points better than Monroe, and that's about where I think this spread should be is in the 16-point range, not 25.5.

Appalachian State really doesn't have the firepower offensively to be laying this kind of weight.  It is only averaging 27.0 points, 391 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  Monroe's offense has improved dramatically of late, averaging 39.5 points and 458.5 yards per game in its last two.

Appalachian State is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last three seasons.  Monroe is 6-0 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The Mountaineers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Warhawks.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +10

The Iowa Hawkeyes won their 'Super Bowl' last week by upsetting Michigan 14-13 at home as 24-point underdogs.  I fully expect them to suffer a huge letdown this week off such a big win, and now they're being asked to go on the road and win a conference game by double-digits.

Iowa had previously lost 14-41 at Penn State on the road while getting outgained by 365 yards.  They were also outgained by 187 yards in a 9-17 home loss to Wisconsin the week before.  It seems like the oddsmakers are forgetting those performances with the line they have set just because Iowa beat Michigan.

But let's be honest, Michigan really gave that game away.  Quarterback Wilton Speight missed several open receivers running free deep for touchdowns.  And Speight broke his collarbone in the second half, but remained in the game.  What should have been a Michigan blowout turned into an upset because of it.

Iowa's offense is still extremely limited.  It completed only eight passes against Michigan for 66 yards.  And five of those passes were caught by running back Akrum Wadley, who was the hero for a day.  But the Hawkeyes have averages just 12.3 points, 233.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play in their last three games.  They don't have the offense to warrant being 10-point road favorites here.

Adding to the value here is that Illinois is coming off a blowout 3-48 loss at Wisconsin last week in which it committed four turnovers and the game got away from them.  But the Fighting Illini beat Michigan State 31-27 at home the week before.  And now this will be their final home game of the season, so the seniors are going to be highly motivated to win on Senior Day.

After playing three straight big-time opponents in Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan, and with rival Nebraska at home on deck, that makes this tough spot for the Hawkeyes.  They just clinched bowl eligibility with that win last week so they don't need this win because they can't win their division anyway.  This is clearly a sandwich game here for the Hawkeyes.

When you look at the numbers, this is actually a pretty evenly-matched game.  The Fighting Illini average 5.6 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.6 yards per play on defense.  Iowa averages 5.2 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.4 yards per play on defense.  So the Hawkeyes have been outgained on a yards-per-play basis, while the Fighting Illini have broke even.

And it's worth noting that star QB Wes Lunt has missed significant time this season due to injury.  But he's healthy now and will makes a huge difference for this team when he's in the lineup.  He has thrown six touchdowns against one interception, while backup Jeff George has thrown four touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging only 5.0 yards per attempt.

Last year Illinois covered as 10.5-point road dogs at Iowa in a 20-29 loss.  Lunt threw for 317 yards and a touchdown in that game.  That's important because Iowa was a much better team last year than it is this season.  It went 12-0 in the regular season.  So we have basically the same 10-point spread here, but Illinois is at home this time around.

Iowa is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Illinois.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Louisiana-Lafayette +23

The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off their biggest win of the season in a huge rivalry game against Auburn.  They won 13-7 and shut down Auburn's offense, winning outright as 8.5-point underdogs.  But now off that huge win, and with another rival on deck in Georgia Tech, I expect Georgia to fall flat here.

The Bulldogs just don't have the offense to be laying this many points.  They only average 22.6 points per game, 379 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.  Georgia hasn't won a game by more than 14 points all season, and they only beat FSC foe Nicholls State by two points.

Louisiana-Lafayette has gotten it going over the past few weeks.  They have won two of their last three win a 27-3 victory at Texas State, and a 33-26 win at Georgia Southern.  They managed to hold Georgia Southern, a team known for its rushing attack, to just 52 yards on 28 carries last week.

That's key because the Rajin' Cajuns actually have one of the best run defenses in the country, and Georgia relies on its running game to move the football.  The Rajin' Cajuns rank 20th nationally against the run, giving up just 115 yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

They are going to be able to get some stops in this contest, and they certainly want this game more than Georgia does.  I also like the fact that Lafayette has played its best football on the road this season, going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS while actually outscoring opponents by 5.8 points per game.

Plays on a road team (LA LAFAYETTE) - average defensive team (330-390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Lafayette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games off four consecutive games in which it committed one or fewer turnovers.  The Rajin' Cajuns are taking care of the football and are going to make the Bulldogs work for everything they get.  This game will be much closer than the books anticipate.  The Ragin' Cajuns are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Louisiana-Lafayette Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early Riser on UTSA +27.5

The Texas A&M Aggies are an absolute mess right now.  Since debuting at No. 4 in the playoff rankings, they have completely fallen apart by losing their last two games despite being favored.  They lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as 10-point favorites, then blew a big lead in a 28-29 home loss to Ole Miss last week as 6.5-point favorites.

Now what to the Aggies have to play for?  They could care less about this game against UTSA this week because they know a win over them isn't going to make up for this blown opportunity.  They could also be looking ahead to the showdown with LSU next week.  Either way, I don't expect them to be interested enough to put away a game UTSA team by four or more touchdowns this week.

We are getting some extra line value here with UTSA because of its misleading 35-63 loss at Louisiana Tech last week.  The Roadrunners trailed by 14 late in that game, but the Bulldogs returned an onside kick for a touchdown, and then scored on a QB sneak in the final seconds when they could have just kneeled on it, covering the 23-point spread as a result.

But UTSA has shown me it can play with some very good teams.  It won 45-25 as 19.5-point road dogs at Middle Tennessee, beat Southern Miss 55-32 as 17-point home dogs, and only lost to Arizona State 28-32 as 21-point home dogs.

UTSA will put up some points in this game with an offense that has scored at least 31 points in four straight and five of its last six.  Quarterback Dalton Sturn has thrown for 1,748 yards with 16 touchdowns and only five interceptions, while also rushing for 253 yards and four scores.  Running backs Jalen Rhodes and Jarveon Williams have combined for 1,384 rushing yards and 16 scores as well.

The fans are feeling pretty down in College Station right now.  And I highly the atmosphere will be too great at Kyle Field for an 11 a.m. local kickoff.  UTSA will be looking to make its mark in the state and build its brand.  The Aggies are the more talented team, but the Roadrunners will give them a fight for four quarters.

Texas A&M is 0-10 ATS following two straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seaosns.  Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Roadrunners.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on UNLV +28.5

Tony Sanchez is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country at UNLV.  The Runnin' Rebels are now 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility, so they will certainly show up tonight trying to pull off the upset.

The Rebels are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season, a 69-66 (triple-OT) thriller over Wyoming.  They racked up 653 yards of total offense, which is the second-most in school history, and punished the Cowboys for 401 rushing yards.  That's the same Wyoming team that beat Boise State 30-28 earlier this season.

Junior quarterback Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and three scores, and also rushing for 157 yards and a touchdown.

Boise State simply does not have the same home-field advantage it used to when Chris Peterson was running the show.  In fact, the Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games.  They haven't beaten anyone by more than 14 at home this year, and that's important because they have been favored by 13, 24, 28, 7 and 31 points in their five home games.

UNLV boasts an offense that is putting up 34.4 points per game and 253 rushing yards per game at 5.7 per carry.  It can stay competitive in this game with its running game by shortening the game and keeping the clock and the chains moving.

Boise State has certainly been susceptible to the run at times this season and is allowing 165 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos have given up at least 215 rushing yards in each of their last three games against Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii, and they allowed 382 to New Mexico earlier this season.

The Broncos are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Rebels are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take UNLV Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +8.5

The Arkansas State Red Wolves simply own the Sun Belt Conference.  They aren't going to be eager to let the Troy Trojans take their reign tonight as both teams come in unbeaten in conference play with the winning likely to win the title.

Arkansas State has really picked up its play in conference action.  It is 5-0 while scoring 33.4 points per game and giving up just 16.2 points per contest.  The defense has gotten healthy as the season has gone on, and stud defensive ends Ja'Von Roland-Jones and Chris Odom have combined for 15 sacks.

Sophomore quarterback Justice Hansen has really jump-started the offense since taking over.  He went 20-of-27 passing for 257 yards and two touchdowns last week in a 41-22 win over New Mexico State.  The Red Wolves didn't have to put forth much of an effort to get by NMSU, which is key with this being a short week.

Troy laid it all on the line to beat Appalachian State last week.  The Trojans prevailed 28-24 thanks to a late touchdown that proved to be the difference.  I think the Trojans could suffer a bit of a letdown here only five days later on this short week.  That game took a lot out of the Trojans.

Arkansas State has won each of the last three meetings in this series.  The Red Wolves haven't lost by more than a touchdown to Troy in any of the last five meetings.  Arkansas State has outgained six of its last seven opponents.  The Red Wolves are 36-14-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, including 11-2 ATS over the past two seasons..  Arkansas State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  Bet Arkansas State Thursday.

20* Saints/Panthers NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Carolina -3

The first point I’m going to make is that the Panthers are basically the same favorites as they were in the first meeting on the road earlier this season. They were 2.5-point road favorites over the Saints. Now they’re 3-point home favorites. That fact alone shows you that there’s some line value here with the Panthers even though they lost the first meeting 38-41 on a last-second field goal.

I still consider the Panthers a Top 5 team in the NFL despite their 3-6 record. They have simply come up short in close games while uncharacteristically losing the turnover battle up to this point. The Panthers were +20 in turnovers last year, but they are -7 this season, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That bad luck isn’t likely to continue.

And turnovers certainly cost the Panthers last week against the Chiefs. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, but somehow managed to give up 20 unanswered points. It wasn’t the defense’s fault as Cam Newton threw a pick-six, while Kelvin Benjamin fumbled deep in his own territory with only a few seconds remaining to set up the Chiefs’ game-winning field goal.

This Carolina defense is starting to play like it did last season ever since its bye in Week 7. The Panthers have given up an average of just 16.7 points and 311.7 yards per game in their last three contests. And again, 10 of those points against the Chiefs were basically given up by the offense. I expect Newton and company to be much more careful with the ball this week.

The Saints trailed most the way against the Broncos last week. I think they’re getting way too much respect from the books now after winning four of their last five games overall. One of those was the 3-point win over Carolina, which will only have the Panthers motivated for revenge at home this time around. After all, the Panthers had won the previous three meetings with the Saints by an average of 13.0 points per game.

While the Panthers’ defense is improving, the Saints still have an awful stop unit. They give up 29.2 points per game, 401 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. The Saints do have a great offense and one that gave the Panthers trouble in the first meeting, but again, the Panthers are playing better on that side of the ball now and will make the necessary adjustments as they try and save their season this week.

Carolina is 35-11 ATS in its last 46 games revenging a loss where its opponent scored 28 points or more. The Panthers are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game. Plays on favorites (CAROLINA) – revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Panthers Thursday.

15* NIU/Eastern Michigan MAC ANNIHILATOR on Eastern Michigan +3

The Eastern Michigan Eagles should be going to a bowl game for the first time since 1987 after beating Ball State 48-41 last week to get their sixth win.  Now they'll be going for their first winning season since 1995.  They have had only one winning season since 1990, so they still have a lot to play for here.

Northern Illinois is playing for nothing but pride now.  A 24-31 loss to Toledo last week dropped NIU to 3-7 on the season and assured of a losing year.  That's rare territory for the Huskies, who had made six straight trips to Detroit to play in the MAC Championship Game prior to this season.

The Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Graham.  He has made seven career starts but struggles with accuracy.  Graham completed just 53.9 percent of his passes when forced into duty in 2015, and he is completing only 55.6 percent in 2016.  He is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt this season, while Drew Hare (7.2) and Anthony Maddie (6.9) were much better before him in that department.  He's also not the same runner as Maddie (6.8 yards/carry) as he averages just 4.7 per carry.
 
NIU relies heavily on its rushing attack that averages 234 yards per game and 5.5 per carry.  Well, Eastern Michigan hasn't allowed more than 230 rushing yards in any game this season.  They only give up 152 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 181 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

Eastern Michigan boasts a prolific passing attack that averages 301 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  Northern Illinois gives up 262 passing yards per game and 193 rushing yards per game for an average of 455 per contest.  Brogan Roback, who has thrown 13 touchdowns against three interceptions this season while taking over for the ineffective Todd Porter, is primed for a big day through the air.  He had a 468-yard effort in last week's win over Ball State.

Eastern Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and continues to be undervalued as a home underdog here.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Take Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* Ohio/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan PK

The Ohio Bobcats can afford to lose this game against Central Michigan and still win the MAC East with a home win over lowly Akron next week.  That's why I don't expect them to be fully focused on this contest tonight.

Central Michigan needs a win to get bowl eligible as it sits at just 5-5 on the season.  And there's no doubt the Chippewas will be hungry for a win for that reason, and to also put an end to a three-game losing streak.

This is the same Central Michigan team that beat Oklahoma State earlier this season.  But the Chippewas have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, so they are way undervalued right now.  They haven't played as well since that win over Oklahoma State, but the potential is clearly there, and I look for them to circle the wagons this week.

Central Michigan has played a much harder schedule than Ohio this season.  That makes its numbers more impressive, and by the numbers alone, it's clear that the Chippewas are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 44 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.  Ohio is outgaining teams by 39 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

The Bobcats are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Chippewas are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.  The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Cincinnati PK

The Cincinnati Bengals are the healthiest they've been this season.  They are coming off their bye week after a tie with the Washington Redskins in London.  I really like the spot for them because of it.

The Bengals offense should be much stronger the rest of the way now that Andy Dalton has his favorite red zone target back in Tyler Eiffert.  He had nine receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins.  Now Dalton has two proven targets outside with A.J. Green, who had nine catches for 121 yards against Washington.

The New York Giants aren't nearly as healthy.  They will be without No. 2 receiver Victor Cruz due to an ankle injury, and they will also be without G Justin Pugh.  I know the Giants have won three straight coming in, but they easily could have lost all three.  They are 5-3 on the season, but all five wins came by a touchdown or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games.

The Giants have been outgained in four of their last five games.  They were outgained by 141 yards against the Eagles last week and should have lost.  They were also outgained by 113 yards against the Rams in London, and by 185 yards against the Packers.

The Giants actually rank just 28th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 31.4 yards per game.  They have no running game as their offense averages just 68 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry.  I think that lack of balance is really going to hurt the Giants going forward.

The Bengals have great balance as they are averaging 120 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry, as well as 275 passing yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.  That's impressive when you consider they have been without Eiffert for most of the season.  The Bengals are better than their 3-4-1 record as they rank 10th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 16.9 yards per game.

The Bengals are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS off a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the past two seasons.  The Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Plays against teams (NY GIANTS) - terrible rushing team - averaging 70 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Bengals Monday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be highly-motivated for a victory at home Sunday.  They sit at just 4-4 on the season after losing three straight games coming in.  But they clearly haven't been at full health during this skid, which is the biggest reason for it.

Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury in a 15-30 loss at Miami, but tried playing through it.  He sat out the following week against New England, and it's no surprise the Steelers lost 16-27 at home.  Then they had their bye week, and Roethlisberger came back earlier than expected last week.  He was rusty and the Steelers lost 14-21 at Baltimore.

But now Roethlisberger is healthier this week, and he has told the team to follow his lead as they host the NFC-leading Dallas Cowboys.  The Steelers will be putting all of their eggs into one basket this week to get a win and stop this streak, and I look for them to do it as only 2.5-point favorites over the Cowboys.

The Steelers are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss to New England without Roethlisberger.  Their other three home games resulted in blowout wins over Cincinnati (24-16), Kansas City (43-14) and the New York Jets (31-13).  So they outscored those three teams by an average of 18.3 points per game. 

With Roethlisberger back healthy now, I expect the home dominance to continue.  After all, the Steelers have won seven straight home games in which Roethlisberger has started, and he is 67-21 in his career at Heinz Field.  He has thrown 19 touchdown passes in his past five home games as well.

Dallas could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It is 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS, currently the only team in the NFL without a loss against the spread.  The Cowboys were already a public team before this season, and the betting public has been really pouring it in on them this season now that they have delivered basically every week for backers.

And I believe that is being reflected in this line as the Cowboys are getting way too much respect from the books now.  They are only 2.5-point underdogs here when this line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.  There's no question that a healthy Steelers' team is better than the Cowboys on a neutral field, but this line indicates they would be basically a pick 'em or underdogs on a neutral field.

Dallas has benefited from playing the NFL's easiest schedule up to this point this season.  It has played non-divisional games against the 49ers, Bears and Browns, who are a combined 3-23 on the season.  The Cowboys have only played two teams that currently have winning records.  They beat the 4-3-1 Redskins, but lost to the 5-3 Giants.  The Steelers have played the NFL's 5th-toughest schedule.

The Cowboys have been able to mask a below-average defense this season by controlling the time of possession 34-26 on average.  That defense will get exposed this week against arguably the best offense in the NFL when healthy in the Steelers.

The Cowboys give up an average of 5.5 yards per play, which ranks 16th in the NFL.  They have two key injuries in the secondary with S Barry Church and CB Morris Claiborne expected to miss this game.  Roethlisberger should have a field day throwing the ball against this depleted Dallas secondary.  The Cowboys allow 68% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.

Pittsburgh is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by an average of 10.5 points per game in this spot.  Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS off three or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Steelers are winning by 9.7 points per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3

I believe the Carolina Panthers are still one of the Top 5 teams in the NFL.  However, they aren't getting treated like it right now from oddsmakers because they are just 3-5 on the season.  That record has them undervalued right now.

Cam Newton missed 1.5 games and Jonathan Stewart also missed a couple games during their 1-5 start.  But then the Panthers had a bye in Week 7 to get healthy.  They have come back from their by with two impressive wins to turn their season around.

They beat the Cardinals 30-20 in Week 8 at home, and then they went on the road and beat the Rams 13-10 last week.  That was a Rams team coming off their bye, so that was a very good win.  Plus, the Rams scored their only TD of the game in the final few seconds of the fourth quarter on fourth down when the game was already decided.  The defense is really starting to play up to its standards now after holding the Cardinals and Rams to an average of 15.0 points per game the past two weeks.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall dating back to last season.  They have won four straight games coming in, but I believe they are being way overvalued due to that winning streak.  They were extremely lucky to beat the Jaguars 19-14 at home last week.

The Chiefs were actually outgained by 208 yards by the Jaguars.  Their offense was held to just 231 total yards, while the defense gave up 449 total yards.  In fact, the Chiefs have been outgained in five of their last seven games overall.  They are ranked 26th in the NFL in yardage differential this season, which isn't the sign of a good team.

I know the Chiefs will get Alex Smith back at quarterback this week, and while he's an upgrade of Nick Foles, it's not that big of a difference.  The Chiefs are expected to be without top receiver Jeremy Maclin, and it's uncertain if Spencer Ware will be back from his concussion.  The Chiefs were already without Jamaal Charles.

I just don't see the Chiefs being able to do enough offensively to keep up with the Panthers in this game.  Having a healthy Newton back and pairing him with a healthy Stewart, this Panthers offense will be at least as explosive as it was last year going forward when it led the NFL in scoring offense.

The Chiefs have been very lucky in the turnover department of late, which has been the key to their 4-game winning streak.  They are +10 in turnovers their past four games, which is a rate that is unsustainable.  The Panthers are -6 in turnover differential after finishing +20 last season.

The Panthers have won the turnover battle the past two games since they returned from their bye as they have only committed one turnover.  That will be a sign of things to come for the Panthers as they get back to playing how they did last year.  Kansas City's only chance in this game is to win the turnover battle because it's clear to me that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.  I'll bank on that not happening this week as the Panthers continue their push to get back in the playoff hunt.

Both teams rely heavily on running the football, and it's clear that the Panthers have a huge edge in this game against the run.  The Panthers rank 3rd in the NFL against the run giving up just 77.5 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  Conversely, the Chiefs rank 27th against the run, giving up 124.5 rushing yards per game and a whopping 4.8 yards per carry.

Plays on home favorites (CAROLINA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG), after allowing 14 points or less last game are 47-20 (70.1%) ATS since 1983.

Carolina is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who complete 61% or better of their pass attempts over the last two seasons.  It is winning these games by 21.0 points per game on average.  Ron Rivera is 10-1 ATS in home games versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of Carolina.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Washington Redskins -1

The Washington Redskins went into their bye week pissed off.  They should have won their final two games heading into the bye, but instead they wound up going 0-1-1 to sit at 4-3-1 on the season.  Look for them to come out after their bye this week hungry for a victory.

I say they should have won their last two games because they blew a late lead against the Lions in a 20-17 road loss, outgaining Detroit by 69 yards.  Then they outgained Cincinnati by 131 yards in a 27-27 tie over in London.

The Redskins actually rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 40.5 yards per game on the season.  To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank 18th in the NFL in yardage differential, actually getting outgained on the season due to a putrid offense that is only averaging 298.8 yards per game.

The Vikings got off to a 5-0 start this season, but then had their bye week.  They have gone 0-3 since the bye with three straight lackluster performances.  They lost 10-21 to the Eagles, 10-20 to the Bears and 16-22 to the Lions.  Their offense has been held to just 12.0 points per game during this skid.

The Redskins have one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.  They are putting up 410.7 yards per game this season while averaging 299 passing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  The Vikings are only averaging 19.4 points per game on the season and 73 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry, putting way too much pressure on Sam Bradford and the passing game.

Plays on home teams (WASHINGTON) - off one or more straight overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Vikings are still getting treated like one of the best teams in the NFL from oddsmakers when they clearly aren't in their current state.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers just had their dreams crushed with a 10-0 loss to Alabama last week.  This game was tied 0-0 at the end of three quarters with the Tigers right there to pull off the upset.  But they had their hearts ripped out time and time again as Alabama QB Jalen Hurts killed them with his legs in the fourth quarter.

If the Tigers had won that game, they would have been in prime position to win the SEC West by winning out with an outside shot of making the four-team playoff.  But now with three losses on the season, they don't have much to play for outside of bowl positioning the rest of the way.  This team plays for championships, not bowl positioning.

So, I fully expect LSU to come out flat this week against Arkansas.  In fact, they may not even show up at all and get blown out of the building as a result.  There's no way LSU should be favored by a touchdown at Arkansas given their mental state right now, and I don't believe they should even be favored at all.

Arkansas had a chance to regroup with a bye two weeks ago following a brutal stretch that included a blowout loss to Auburn heading into the bye.  But the Razorbacks got healthy and re-focused, and they came back last week and crushed Florida 31-10 despite being 3-point home underdogs.

This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Razorbacks racked up 466 yards of total offense on a very good Florida defense, rushing for 223 and throwing for 246.  Their defense held the Gators to just 241 total yards, outgaining them by 225 yards in for the game.

I was really impressed with Arkansas' ability to stop the run against the Gators.  They gave up just 12 rushing yards on 14 carries.  They had previously been torched on the ground, but they clearly made an effort on their bye to improve in that area, and that's exactly what they did.  That will be key again this week in stopping LSU's rushing attack led by Leonard Fournette.

Amazingly, LSU has only played one true road game all season.  It lost 13-18 at Auburn in that contest.  It also lost its other road game which was at a neutral site against Wisconsin 14-16.  I think this team is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this week because the schedule has been favorable with so many home games up to this point.

Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to top-ranked Alabama.  But that game was closer than the final of 30-49 would indicate.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards.

To compare, Alabama outgained LSU by 198 yards last week and held the Tigers to just 125 total yards.  Arkansas scored 30 points on that Alabama defense and gained 473 yards, but gave the game away by committing five turnovers.  The Razorbacks have a clear advantage on offense in this game and will be able to score on this LSU defense, too.

Arkansas has had LSU's number in recent years.  The Razorbacks won 17-0 at home in 2014 and 31-14 on the road as 6.5-point dogs last year.  They outgained the Tigers by 131 yards in 2014 and by 110 yards in 2015.  The Razorbacks are actually 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Tigers.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in the last 11 meetings.

LSU is 0-6 ATS in Saturday road games over the past two seasons, losing by an average of 5.0 points per game.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -2.5

The Old Dominion Monarchs have been flying under the radar this season.  They sit at 6-3 overall and 4-1 in conference play, and a win Saturday over Southern Miss would move them into a first-place tie with Western Kentucky in the C-USA's East Division.  So, they have a lot to play for this week.

Old Dominion's three losses this season have all come on the road against the best three teams they have faced in Appalachian State, NC State and Western Kentucky.  But the Monarchs have taken care of business in their other six games against similar or worse competition to Southern Miss.

They have outgained their other six opponents in their six victories, and they outgained five of them by at least 100 yards.  They beat Marshall 38-14, UTEP 31-21 on the road, UMass 36-16 at home, Charlotte 52-17 on the road, UTSA 33-19 at home and Hampton 54-21 at home.  So, all six of their wins have come by double-digits.

And the Monarchs have yet to lose at home, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while winning by 22.7 points per game on average.  I love the balance of this offense as they average 189 yards per game on the ground and 231 through the air.  And there's no question Old Dominion has one of the best defenses in C-USA, giving up 27.4 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play this season.

Southern Miss has taken a big step back this season.  After making the C-USA title game last year, the Golden Eagles are just 5-4 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They have been overvalued all year and continue to be here as only 2.5-point underdogs on the road.

The Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with some awful results.  They only by by 16 over Rice as 25.5-point favorites and by 10 over Marshall as 17-point favorites, both at home.  They lost by 23 at UTSA as 17-point favorites, at LSU by 35 as 25-point dogs and by 11 at home to Charlotte as 17-point favorites.  That's right, they have been upset twice as 17-point favorites here recently.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and when you do, it's not even close.  The Monarchs and Golden Eagles have faced the same four teams this year.  Old Dominion is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against them, outscoring them by 20.7 points per game.  Southern Miss is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS against those same four teams, only outscoring them by 0.8 points per game.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring teams by 22.7 points per game in the process.  It's worth noting that Southern Miss starting QB Nick Mullens, who means everything to this team, is questionable to play Saturday due to a head injury.  Backup Parker Adamson is completing just 48.7% of his passes on 39 attempts this season.  The Monarchs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Old Dominion Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

I love the grit and determination that Vanderbilt has shown this season in Derek Mason's third year on the job.  At 4-5 on the year, they need to win two of their last three games to get bowl eligible.  And if they are going to do it, this is a must-win against Missouri.

The Missouri Tigers don't have any motivation right now as they sit at 2-7 on the season while going 0-11 in their last 11 SEC games since last year.  Oh how far they have fallen after winning back-to-back SEC East titles in 2013 and 2014.

Vanderbilt is a better team than its 4-5 record would suggest.  Four of its five losses have come by a TD or less.  That includes a 7-point loss to Florida as 14-point dogs, a 7-point loss at Kentucky, and a 7-point loss at Auburn as 25-point dogs last week.  Don't forget that this team beat Georgia 17-16 as 14-point road dogs and Western Kentucky 31-30 as 8.5-point road dogs.

Missouri's two wins this season have come at home over Eastern Michigan and Delaware State.  The Tigers have going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four double-digit losses and an upset home loss to Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point favorites.  They lost by 35 at LSU, by 26 at Florida, by 14 at home against Kentucky and by 10 at South Carolina.

Common opponents is a great way to compare teams, and it's clear that Vanderbilt is the superior squad when we do.  The Tigers and Commodores have played five of the same teams this year.  Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS against them, outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.  Missouri is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS against them, getting outscored by 11.4 points per game.

Missouri has made some nice improvements on offense this year, but that has been countered with a defense that is the worst we've seen for the Tigers in a long time.  The Tigers allow 30.4 points and 469 yards per game this season.  The Commodores only give up 21.6 points and 397 yards per game.

Ralph Webb is one of the best running backs in the SEC, and QB Kyle Shurmur is improving as he has completed 39 of his last 62 passes over the past two weeks.  Webb is primed for a big day on the ground against a Missouri defense that is allowing 231 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry on the season, including 311.2 yards per game during its five-game losing streak.

Vanderbilt beat Missouri 10-3 at home last season as 1-point dogs.  The Commodores held the Tigers to just 188 total yards and 10 first downs in the win.  Their defense, which has allowed 23 or fewer points in five straight games, will allow them to win this game here today as well and get one step closer to bowl eligibility.

Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the past two seasons.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +30

The betting public has made a killing on Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have gone 7-2 ATS, including four straight spread covers. Three of those have come by the smallest margins as they won by 19 over Arkansas as 14.5-point favorites, by 19 over Texas A&M as 18-point favorites and by 10 over LSU as 7-point favorites.

Oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding Alabama because the Crimson Tide have come through for them time and time again. So this has created some artificial line value on Mississippi State this week as there’s no way they should be catching 30 points.

It’s worth noting that Alabama only has three wins by more than 28 points this season. The fact of the matter is that the Crimson Tide have created expectations for themselves from the betting public that they simply aren’t going to be able to live up to going forward.

Alabama is also in a bad spot here. Coming off their biggest obstacle of the season in a 10-0 win at LSU last week, the Crimson Tide are primed for a letdown. They are feeling really good about themselves right now after that win. They aren’t going to be concerned with blowing out Mississippi State because they don’t need style points, they just need wins.

And even if the Crimson Tide brought 100% effort this week off that win over LSU, which is unlikely, I still don’t think they’d beat Mississippi State by more than four touchdowns. The Bulldogs are just 4-5 this season, but four of those losses have come by seven points or fewer. That includes road losses to LSU (20-23) and BYU (21-28). Their biggest loss came by 24 points against Auburn, which is playing as well as almost anyone right now.

I was really impressed with Mississippi State’s 35-28 win over then-No. 4 Texas A&M last week. That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Bulldogs outgained the Aggies by 192 yards. They racked up 574 yards of total offense in the win.

Nick Fitzgerald is just they type of dual-threat QB that Alabama has struggled with in the past. He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against Texas A&M, while also rushing for 182 yards and two scores. The Bulldogs rushed for 365 yards and 6.3 per carry against the Aggies as a team. The freshman Fitzgerald keeps getting better and better as the season goes along.

I looked back since 1992 and this is the biggest favorite Alabama has been over Mississippi State over that time period. The Crimson Tide haven’t been more than 22.5-point favorites in that span. Only once in the last 12 meetings has Alabama won by more than 28 points against Mississippi State.

I know Alabama beat Mississippi State 31-6 last season, but that game was much closer than the final score showed. The Bulldogs actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 14 yards in that contest. That was the second straight season in which they outgained the Crimson Tide. They also outgained them by 93 yards in a 20-25 road loss in 2014.

Plays against home favorites (ALABAMA) – after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Alabama is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 250 or more passing yards per game. Mississippi State is 11-0 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons. The Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games when playing against a team with a losing road record.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas -1.5

The Texas Longhorns have come up with back-to-back huge wins to get to 5-4 on the season and one win away from becoming bowl eligible.  Now I look for them to take another step forward this week with their sixth victory at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Texas beat Baylor 35-34 at home as 4-point underdogs two weeks ago.  The Bears were coming off their bye week, so that was a tough spot for the Longhorns and they proceeded to hand Baylor its first loss of the season.  Then the Longhorns went on the road and beat Texas Tech 45-37, outgaining the Red Raiders by 176 yards in the process.

I really like what I've seen from the Texas rushing attack the past two weeks.  It rushed for 257 yards on Baylor and 414 on Texas Tech.  D'Onta Foreman is having one of the best seasons among running backs that nobody is talking about.  He has rushed for 1,446 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry.

West Virginia is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 7-1 start, but make no mistake about it, the Mountaineers have faced a very easy schedule this season compared to Texas.  They have only played two true road games all year.  They won at Texas Tech off their bye, but lost 20-37 at Oklahoma State.

Yes, the Mountaineers have perhaps the best defense in the Big 12, but that is being overblown a bit because of the schedule.  They have done a good job of stopping the pass, but they haven't faced many teams that can run the football like Texas.  And the Mountaineers did give up 280 rushing yards to BYU earlier this season.  The Longhorns have great balance as they average 247 rushing yards and 258 passing yards per game.

All four of Texas' losses have come on the road this season, and three of those were one-score games.  But they are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by 14.7 points per game on the season.  The home team has won each of the past two meetings between these teams.

The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  West Virginia is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. a team witha  winning record.  I believe the Mountaineers get exposed this week as this will be their toughest game to date outside of maybe their 17-point road loss at Oklahoma State.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Boston College/Florida State ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Boston College +21

I really question what Florida State's motivation is going to be the rest of the way.  The Seminoles were extremely fortunate to beat NC State last week, and I can't see them being too excited to face Boston College tonight.  That lack of motivation is going to make it tough for the Seminoles to win by more than three touchdowns.

The Seminoles had their dreams of winning the Atlantic crushed two weeks ago with a 34-37 home loss to Clemson.  They came back with a lackluster 24-20 win at NC State last week, failing to cover the spread as 6.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 76 yards by the Wolfpack in that contest.

Boston College went on the road and beat NC State 21-14 two weeks ago for a common opponent.  The Eagles outgained the Wolfpack by 48 yards in that contest, playing a much better game than Florida State did against them.

I think the Eagles come in undervalued due to their 7-52 loss to Louisville last week.  But a lot of teams are getting blown out by Louisville as the Seminoles also lost by 43 to them.  The Eagles have struggled with spread teams this year, but FSU runs more of a pro style and they have had success defending those systems.

We've seen Boston College play Florida State tough for three consecutive seasons.  The Eagles lost 14-0 at home last year and were only outgained by 22 yards.  They were only outgained by 78 yards in a 17-20 loss at FSU as 17-point dogs in 2014.  And they lost by 14 as 23.5-point home dogs in 2013 while getting outgained by 92 yards.  So, they have not lost by more than 14 to the Seminoles in any of the last three meetings.

Boston College is 7-0 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the past three seasons.  Florida State is 1-8 ATS off a road win over the last three years.  The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tallahassee.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* Utah/Arizona State Pac-12 BAILOUT on Utah -6

The Utah Utes (7-2) have everything to play for right now.  The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4) don't have the same luxury.  That's why I'm willing to lay the 6 points on the road with the Utes tonight knowing that they are going to bring max effort into Tempe, AZ.

Utah has a chance to make the Pac-12 Championship Game for the first time in program history.  If they win out, they would at worst finish in a three-way tie with Colorado and USC.  And they'd have the tiebreaker over both of those teams in the South Division, likely moving on to face Washington in the title game.

This Utes team could arguably be 9-0 right now.  They only lost 23-28 at Cal after a goal line stand by the Bears late. They also showed what they were made of by going toe-to-toe with Washington last time out, losing 24-31 at home as 10-point underdogs.

The Utes have outgained six of their nine opponents this season, and they were only outgained by 10 yards by USC, by 20 yards against Arizona and by 9 yards against Washington.  Those are some impressive numbers as they've been able to win the box score in most of their games, and haven't been outmatched once.

The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which has been dominated in the box score of late.  After outgaining their first three opponents in Northern Arizona, Texas Tech and UTSA, the Sun Devils have been outgained in all six of their Pac-12 games, and five times by at least 168 yards at that.

With those numbers, the Sun Devils are lucky to be 2-4 in Pac-12 play as they arguably should have lost all six games.  They are only averaging 329.8 yards per game and giving up 543.8 yards per game in Pac-12 play, getting outgained by a whopping 214 yards per game in conference action this season.

Utah is led by surprise returnee running back Joe Williams, who has rushed for 683 yards and six touchdowns in three games since ending a self-imposed retirement on Oct. 11. Williams returned after injuries to the Utes' three top rushers, who were attempting to replace NFL draft choice Devontae Booker.

Utah has built its record with strong defense and special teams play, too. The Utes are tied with Memphis for the FBS lead with 23 takeaways, on 15 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. They also lead the FBS in net punting.

Arizona State has had a lot of trouble keeping opponents at bay. The Sun Devils have given up 513.6 yards total offense per game, which ranks 124th out of the 128 FBS programs. They have given up 36.6 points a game, which ranks 115th.

The Utes are 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. They are beating these teams by 13.2 points per game on average.  Roll with Utah Thursday.

25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +10.5

I believe there is a ton of value here with the Cleveland Browns catching double-digits against the Baltimore Ravens. There is some artificial line value here based off of what happened last week, with the Ravens upsetting the Steelers and the Browns getting blown out by the Cowboys.

But Baltimore wasn’t all that impressive in its win over Pittsburgh. The Ravens only scored one offensive touchdown, which was a 95-yard pass to Mike Wallace. They other touchdown came on a blocked punt.  They were held to just 274 yards of total offense in the win as Joe Flacco and company continue to struggle on that side of the ball.

Plus, it was Ben Roethlisberger’s first start back from injury, and he showed a lot of rust.  And that win over the Steelers sets the Ravens up for a big letdown here.  The Steelers are their biggest rivals, and I love fading teams coming off a big rivalry game, especially after a victory.

The Browns obviously did not play well last week against the Cowboys, who won 35-10 for their seventh straight victory. But the Cowboys are making everyone look bad this season, and it was by far the worst performance for the Browns this year.

Playing a division rival in the Ravens, and wanting revenge from a 25-20 loss to them at home in their first meeting this season, the Browns will show up to play Thursday night. They blew a 20-2 lead to the Ravens in that first meeting, giving up 23 unanswered points. They certainly haven’t forgotten and will be looking to even the score.

I just don’t see how the Ravens can be laying double-digits against anyone with their offense. The Ravens are averaging just 19.2 points, 325.1 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 24.5 points, 372 yards per game and 5.9 per play. They rank 27th in the NFL in total offense and 30th in yards per play.

The Browns have certainly struggled defensively this season, but their offense is actually averaging 5.8 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.7 yards per play. They have been competent on that side of the ball, and having WR Corey Coleman back to full strength now is a big bonus.

The Ravens just have a tendency of playing in close games dating back to last season. This season alone, all eight of their games have been decided by 8 points or less. In fact, 22 of their last 24 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer, and they haven't won by more than 8 points in that stretch, making for a 24-0 system backing the Browns pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  I expect that trend to continue in this game as the Ravens don’t win by double-digits here.

Cleveland has played Baltimore very tough in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The road team has won four of the last five meetings outright, including a 33-30 (OT) win by the Browns last season as 6-point underdogs.

The Ravens are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Baltimore. The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

Plays on road underdogs or pick (CLEVELAND) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Browns Thursday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Toledo/Northern Illinois UNDER 71

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toledo Rockets and Northern Illinois Huskies.  I fully expect this game to go well UNDER this 71-point total in a defensive battle tonight.

This is a huge rivalry game as the MAC has so often come down to which team wins this game.  Toledo is tired of losing to Northern Illinois as it has lost six straight in this series.  But four of those games were decided by a touchdown or less, so they just haven't been able to win close games.

And looking at recent scores in this head-to-head series, it's easy to see that there is a ton of value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 55, 52, 51 and 59 points.  That's an average of 54.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 71.

Toledo is very good on defense as it gives up just 22.8 points per game this season.  Northern Illinois is playing much better on that side of the ball of late, giving up just 20.3 points, 378.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play over its past three games.  The Huskies held Buffalo to 7 points and 338 yards and Bowling Green to 20 points and 314 total yards in its last two games, respectively.  And three games ago, NIU was tied 21-21- with Central Michigan at the end of regulation before double-overtime.

Toledo is 14-2 UNDER in its last 16 road games after rushing for 275 or more yards in its previous game.  The Rockets are 8-1 UNDER in November games over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 November games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan PK

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are one win away from becoming bowl eligible at 5-4 on the season.  That's a huge deal for a team that has won two or fewer games in four consecutive seasons, and one that hasn't been to a bowl game since 1987.

After missing a golden opportunity last time out on October 29th in a 15-28 home loss to Miami Ohio, I look for the Eagles to take advantage tonight.  Plus, that's a very good Miami team that is proving to be one of the best in the MAC.  But now the Eagles get to face one of the worst teams in the conference in Ball State.

The Cardinals are just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in MAC play this season with their only victory coming against Buffalo, which is the worst team in the conference.  Ball State was beating by 10 at home by Akron and by 32 at home by Western Michigan in its last two games.

After playing a huge game against unbeaten Western Michigan last Tuesday, I don't expect the Cardinals to be up for Eastern Michigan this week.  And EMU has an advantage in rest and preparation because it last played on Saturday, October 29th.  The Eagles will be putting all their eggs in one basket here to try and get bowl eligible.

Eastern Michigan has covered the spread against the two best teams in the MAC, proving that they can play with them.  They lost 20-35 at home to Toledo as 20.5-point dogs and 31-45 on the road at Western Michigan as 26-point dogs.  And WMU is their only common opponent with Ball State, which lost to the Broncos by 32 at home last week.

Eastern Michigan has played a tougher schedule than Ball State and yet has still put up better numbers.  The Eagles are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  Ball State is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.3 yards per play on defense.

Ball State relies heavily on the run, averaging 235 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But EMU has been stout against the run, giving up 152 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  The Cardinals give up 296 passing yards per game and 7.9 per attempt.  The Eagles rely on the pass, averaging 282 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt through the air.  So this is a great matchup for them on both sides of the ball.

Ball State is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 15.6 points per game in this spot.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.  The Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Bet Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

20* Bills/Seahawks ESPN Total DOMINATOR on OVER 43

The Seattle Seahawks have been talking about getting their offense going leading up to this game.  At home, I fully expect them to get back on track on that side of the ball.  They are averaging 25.0 points per game at home this season.

Now the Seahawks get to go up against a Bills team that has allowed an average of 34.5 points and 405.5 yards per game in back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Patriots.  And the Bills will be without their best defensive lineman in Marcell Dareus, while sack leader Lorenzo Alexander will be hampered by a hamstring injury.

The Seahawks have their own concerns on defense this week.  They will be without DE Michael Bennett, who is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a knee injury.  And S Kam Chancellor is out with a groin injury.  This simply isn't the same defense for the Seahawks that we've been accustomed to.  They have allowed 393.3 yards per game over their past three contests.

The Bills finally look to be healthy on offense this week.  RB LeSean McCoy returns after missing most of the past two games with a hamstring injury.  WR's Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods are probable, and the team signed Percy Harvin this week to add a playmaker.  He'll be going up against his former team and is a big play waiting to happen.

Buffalo is clearly one of the most improved offenses in the league.  It has scored at least 25 points in six of its past seven games overall.  It is averaging 29.3 points per game over its past seven contests.  I expect both offenses to put up big numbers tonight and for the Bills to do their part in getting this one OVER the total.

Buffalo is 24-7 OVER in its last 31 vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 9-2 OVER off a loss over the past two seasons.  Seattle is 9-1 OVER against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the past three seasons.  The OVER is 8-0  in the last eight meetings in this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +4.5

The Tennessee Titans are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  After going 5-27 over the past two seasons, the Titans are off to a 4-4 start this year.  They have been the most impressive team in the AFC South in my opinion.  The numbers prove it too.

All four of Tennessee's losses have come by single-digits, so they've been in every game they have played.  The Titans actually rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 36 yards per game.  Only the Cardinals, Cowboys, Falcons and Redskins have been better.

I've been on the Chargers quite a bit lately, but I think it's time to fade them this week.  They had covered three straight before losing by 8 as 4-point road dogs to the Broncos last week.  That line was bet from 6.5 down to 4, just as the previous week the line was bet from 6.5 down to 4.5 against the Falcons.

So, there's been a lot of love for the Chargers the past few weeks, and there continues to be this week.  They are 4.5-point favorites here, which means it is the largest favorites they have been all season.  They have only been favored in two other games.  They covered as 3-point home favorites against the Jaguars, but lost outright to the Saints as 4-point home favorites.

I like the fact that the Titans have a mini-bye here after crushing the Jaguars 36-22 on Thursday at home.  And the Chargers have had the worst luck in the injury department this season.  They will be without two key defenders in LB Denzel Perryman and LB Jerry Attaochu.  Offensively, they will be without TE Hunter Henry, and both starting WR's in Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin are banged up.

The Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games.  San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after failing to cover the spread in its previous game.  While I expect Tennessee to win this game outright, there's a good chance it's decided by a field goal either way, so getting 4.5 points is a nice value.  Seven of San Diego's eight games have been one-score games.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Browns +7

It's time to sell high on the Dallas Cowboys.  They were already a public team already, but after starting 6-1 SU & 6-0-1 ATS without a spread loss yet, they are overwhelmingly getting public support now.  So much so that they are 7-point road favorites here against the Cleveland Browns.

At 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS on the season, it's time to buy low on the Browns.  This team keeps coming to play every week, but they just don't have a win to show for it.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents this season.

Josh McCown returned to the lineup last week against the Jets in a 28-31 home loss.  Now in his second start back from injury, he should be even better.  He already has a great weapon in Terrelle Pryor at receiver, and now he gets receiver Corey Coleman back from injury.  Coleman had 173 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the first two games of the season before missing the last five with a hand injury.

Don't forget that the Browns traded for Jamie Collins, so their defense gets an upgrade this week.  And the Cowboys lost two key players to injury in their secondary last week against the Eagles.  Cornerback Morris Claiborne is out with a groin injury, while safety Barry Church is expected to miss 3-5 weeks with an arm injury.  McCown should find plenty of holes in this makeshift Cowboys secondary that is allowing 67.8% completions this season.

Home underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 126-97 ATS in their last 223 tries.  The Cowboys are coming off a huge OT win against the Eagles, and they have a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on deck.  That makes this a sandwich game for the Cowboys.  I expect them to just go through the motions this week and for the Browns to stay within the number, possibly pulling off the upset.

Jason Garrett is 1-9 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Dallas.  The Cowboys are losing these games by an average of 2.9 points per game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants -2

Of the six teams coming off byes this week, the Giants are my favorite bet of them all.  They have turned their season around after beating the Ravens and Rams in their last two games coming into the bye.

The Giants are now 4-3 and have actually been unlucky in the turnover department, which makes me believe they are better than their record.  They are actually -7 in turnover differential this season.

Statistically the Giants have been very good.  They rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play differential, averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5.1 per play on defense behind one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.

The Eagles, on the other hand, are just 20th in yards per play differential.  They average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 per play on defense.  So, the Giants have been the better team from a yards per play perspective on both offense and defense.

The Eagles are 1-3 on the road this season with their only win coming against the Chicago Bears.  They are getting outgained by 81 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play on the road.  The Giants are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play at home this season.

Philadelphia is in a very tough spot here.  It is coming off an overtime loss at Dallas in which it blew a double-digit lead.  So the situation really favors the Giants with them coming off a bye, while the Eagles are coming off an OT game.  Take the Giants Sunday.

15* Alabama/LSU CBS Saturday No-Brainer on LSU +8

The LSU Tigers clearly have new life under interim coach Ed Orgeron.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They beat Missouri 42-7 and outgained them by 369 yards, beat Southern Miss 45-10 and outgained them by 217 yards, and beat Ole Miss 38-21 and outgained them by 191 yards.

Now the Tigers are coming off their bye week and have their 'game of the year' here against Alabama.  If they win this game, they can still win the SEC West and possibly make the four-team playoff if they win out.  After all, their two losses came by a combined 7 points on the road to Wisconsin and Auburn, so this is very close to being an 8-0 team.

According to the NFL scouts, Alabama, LSU and Ohio State are the three most talented teams in the country.  The Tigers didn't live up to that talent under Miles, but they certainly are under Orgeron.  They offense has been wide open the past three weeks, which has been the biggest difference.  The Tigers are averaging 41.7 points and 536.0 yards per game over this stretch.

LSU will be playing with a big chip on its shoulder after losing four in a row to Alabama.  But it's worth pointing out that Alabama is only 3-3 in its last six trips to Death Valley.  The three wins came by 6, 4 and 7 points.  And they needed late touchdowns to escape with victory in two of those.  So, the Crimson Tide haven't won by more than a TD in any of their last six trips to Baton Rouge.

I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate, plus LSU's home-field advantage in a night game may be worth more than anyone in the country.  Defensively, they are very similar.  Alabama is holding opponents to 177 yards below their season averages, while LSU is holding foes to 174 yards below.

These teams have one mutual opponent in Ole Miss.  Alabama won by just five at Ole Miss with a 35-yard edge in total yards, while LSU won by 17 at home with a 190-yard edge.  The Crimson Tide do have a slight edge on offense, but as stated before LSU has been much better on this side of the ball since Orgeron took over.  They are finding creative ways to get Leonard Fournette the ball in space, which has been a big key.

LSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the past three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 19.0 points per game in this spot.  Plays on a home team (LSU) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS since 1992.  Take LSU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State -3

This is the perfect storm here.  Oklahoma State is coming off a massive 37-20 win over West Virginia last week as 5-point home dogs, exceeding expectations.  Kansas State is coming off a 31-26 win at Iowa State as 6-point favorites, failing to cover the falling below expectations.  That has kept this line lower than it should be.

But the 37-20 win over West Virginia was very misleading for the Cowboys.  They were actually outgained by 63 yards by the Mountaineers and held to 358 yards of total offense.  The difference was that Oklahoma State scored 17 points off of three WVU turnovers.  They needed only 21 yards to score those 17 points, so they were set up with short fields three times.

At the same time, Kansas State's 31-26 win at Iowa State was misleading as well.  The Wildcats led that game 31-10 in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  The Cyclones outscored them 16-0 in the fourth, including two fourth-down touchdowns, and a safety.  And that's the same ISU team that has gone 5-1 ATS in conference play while taking several teams down to the wire, including Oklahoma State on the road, and Baylor and Oklahoma at home.

The head-to-head history in this series really tells the story for me.  Home-field advantage has been huge.  The home team is 9-1 SU in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the past three seasons.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.v

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +4

Arkansas was clearly gassed from playing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in a 3-week span.  That's why the bye last week came at the perfect time, and I believe the Razorbacks return home hungry for a victory here against the Florida Gators.

They will be extra motivated from their 56-3 loss at Auburn prior to the bye.  It was just a bad spot for them because Auburn was off a bye, while the Razorbacks were gassed.  And that loss is fresh in the mind of the betting public, which is why the Razorbacks are dogs here when they shouldn't be.  It has provided us some very nice line value in that respect.

Florida doesn't deserve to be playing points here.  It is overvalued due to its 6-1 start and No. 11 ranking the college football playoff.  But the Gators have played an extremely soft schedule this season, and just like last year, I look for them to get exposed down the stretch.

The Gators lost their final three games last year once the schedule got tougher and were blown out in all three games by FSU, Alabama and Michigan.  They still have road games remaining against Arkansas, FSU and LSU, so this season is likely to follow a similar script.

Arkansas will be the best team that Florida has faced, and Arkansas has played played at least four teams that are better than Florida.  The Gators have played only two true road games this season.  They only won 13-6 at Vanderbilt as 14-point favorites, and they lost 28-38 at Tennessee as 4.5-point dogs, which looks like a worse loss now than it did then.

The Gators have a very good defense, but their numbers are skewed because of their soft schedule.  They haven't faced an offense this season that ranks better than 50th (Tennessee) in efficiency.  And the Vols hung 38 points on them.  Arkansas' offense is legit and will be the best that Florida has gone up against this season.  And QB Austin Allen is healthy now with the bye after suffering an ankle injury against Auburn, which contributed to the blowout loss.

Arkansas is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Alabama, which is the best team in the country.  And the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide tougher than the 30-49 final would show.  The Crimson Tide got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game, which proved to be the difference.

Luke Del Rio may be back for Florida, but its offense is still awful.  The Gators only managed 231 total yards against Georgia last week in a 24-10 victory.  They are only averaging 399 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season, and keep in mind how soft their schedule has been when factoring in those numbers.

Arkansas is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games following a road blowout loss by 21 points or more.  The Razorbacks are 10-2 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse +27

This is a great spot to back the Syracuse Orange for a couple of key reasons.  The first is that the Orange are off their bye week, and it came at a great time because they were a little beat up.  They have extra time to prepare for Clemson, so their focus has been on the game plan all week.  Plus, they're hyped to play a Top 5 team.

"We really needed the bye," coach Dino Babers said. "You know, a lot of times when you have a bye, you start off the next game a little bit slower, but we really needed the time to heal. The Virginia Tech, the Boston College, the Connecticut, those were physical games, they really were, and we're banged up. We need our guys to get some rest. We need to go out and do some coaching. Our players need to work on their studies a little bit, and then we need to come back together and get ready for the last third of the season."

The second key reason to back Syracuse is that this is a huge hangover spot for Clemson.  The Tigers are coming off a 37-34 road win at Florida State.  They needed a 34-yard touchdown pass with 2:06 left to win that contest after coming back from behind in the closing minutes.

I don't expect the Tigers to be fully focused on Syracuse this week.  The Tigers are just worried about winning, not covering big numbers, because if they win out they are in the four-team playoff.  They don't need style points like some of these one-loss teams on the outside looking in.

The Orange have been on the improve under Babers.  They have outgained four of their last six opponents.  Their last two games really stand out.  The Orange beat Virginia Tech 31-17 as 23-point home dogs, outgaining the Hokies by 93 yards.

Then they went on the road and beat Boston College 28-20 as 3.5-point dogs, outgaining the Eagles by 246 yards in the process.  That game was obviously a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  And it was an impressive effort as they were in a letdown spot off the Virginia Tech win, plus Boston College was coming off a bye week.

I really like this Syracuse offense, and it will be able to put some point up on Clemson.  Quarterback Eric Dungey is the real deal.  He's on pace to challenge or break a number of Syracuse records.  He is seventh nationally in passing yards per game (328.9) and has six 300-yard passing games.  Dungey has also rushed for 289 yards and six scores.

The bottom line is that Clemson just isn't as good as last year.  Five of its eight wins have come by a touchdown or less, including a 24-17 (OT) win over NC State in their last home game.  Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a three-touchdown underdog or more, including that outright win against VA Tech.

Syracuse has given Clemson trouble the past couple seasons.  The Orange only lost 27-37 as 30.5-point home underdogs last season.  They also only lost 6-16 as 16.5-point road dogs in 2014.  And this Syracuse team is better than those two versions.

Plays on road underdogs (SYRACUSE) - with a good offense - averaging 400 or more total yards/game, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game are 78-36 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Clemson is 1-12 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the past three seasons.  It is only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last three seasons.  Once again, they are being overvalued this late in the year.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland +31

The Michigan Wolverines are way overvalued right now.  They are the No. 3 in the country after their 8-0 start, but their schedule has been ridiculously easy to this point.  And now the expectations are through the roof, and I don't think they can live up to them here as 31-point favorites over Maryland.

I faded Michigan last week with success as I took Michigan State +24.5, and the Spartans were always covering in a 23-32 home loss.  The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in their last two games now as they also didn't cover as 40-point favorites in a 33-point win over Illinois the week prior.

Now we're seeing the Wolverines being asked to lay 31 points to Maryland.  And Maryland just beat Michigan State 28-17 a couple weeks ago.  I would argue that Maryland will be one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season, which just shows how easy the Wolverines' schedule has been.

Maryland is off to a 5-3 start this season.  And the Terrapins are actually 5-1 in games in which senior QB Perry Hills has started and finished, averaging 472 yards of offense in those games.  He got hurt in a loss to Penn State, and he didn't play the following week in a loss to Minnesota.

Hills has thrown 10 touchdowns against three interceptions on the season.  He has also rushed for 136 yards and four scores.  The Terrapins have two running backs who are just big plays waiting to happen.  Sophomore Ty Johnson has rushed for 624 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 10.4 per carry, while true freshman Lorenzo Harrison has rushed for 574 yards and five scores at 7.3 per carry.

There is a really nice coaching angle that gives the Terrapins the advantage.  DJ Durkin was Michigan's defensive coordinator last season.  So he knows Michigan's offensive schemes, and he will use that to his advantage here.  That angle alone is going to make this a closer game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Michigan is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.  The Terrapins are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.  Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Maryland Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Northwestern ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern +7

The Wisconsin Badgers have to be running out of gas.  They have played three teams in the past month who are currently ranked in the Top 10 in Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska.  And they also played one of their biggest rivals in Iowa.  I think we could see the emotional and physical effects of those games hamper them this week, especially after needing OT to beat Nebraska last week.

Northwestern comes in playing its best football of the season.  It has gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall despite being dogs in three of those.  It won 38-31 as 11-point dogs at Iowa, 54-40 as 6-point dogs at Michigan State, and 24-14 as 3-point home favorites over Indiana.

But perhaps Northwestern's most impressive performance of the season actually came in a loss last week.  The Wildcats only lost 20-24 at Ohio State as 26-point dogs.  They played the Buckeyes toe-to-toe and you really couldn't tell who the better team was if you watched that game.  The Wildcats put up over 400 yards of offense on Ohio State and were only outgained by 25 yards.

I think that effort will give them the belief that they can win the Big Ten East, instead of suffering a hangover.  And if they're going to win the division, they need to beat Wisconsin here.  They are only one game back of Nebraska and hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, and would hold the tiebreaker with Wisconsin with a win.

Northwestern has been a thorn in Wisconsin's side over the past two seasons.  It won 20-14 as 7.5-point home dogs in 2014, and 13-7 as 12-point road dogs in 2015.  The Wildcats clearly have the Badgers' number in holding them to a combined 21 points the past two years.  And this Wisconsin offense is terrible once again this season, which is why it cannot be trusted to lay a touchdown on the road here.  Not to mention the Badgers have several key injuries on defense.

Pat Fitzgerald is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in five or six of their last seven games as the coach of Northwestern.  The Wildcats are beating teams by 9.2 points per game in this situation, which has never lost.  The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Badgers.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Notre Dame -6.5

This game will be played at a neutral site at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, home of the Jaguars.  It is the first game off the board Saturday with the kick set for 11:30 AM EST.  I fully expect a Notre Dame blowout over Navy to get things started.

Notre Dame still needs three more wents to get to a bowl game.  It still has to play at USC in the season finale, which is probably going to be a loss.  So that means these next three games are essentially must-wins against Navy, Army and VA Tech.

Last week was also a must-win, and Notre Dame beat Miami 30-27 at home.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Fighting Irish outgained the Hurricanes by 105 total yards.  The Hurricanes scored 14 points off of two Notre Dame fumbles that made that game closer than it really was.  This was a 20-0 game in the second quarter.

It's worth noting that Notre Dame had a bye before Miami.  It was well-placed on purpose because Notre Dame has Navy and Army in consecutive weeks in its next two games.  You can bet that the Fighting Irish used at least part of the bye week to prepare for the triple-option.  That's a key here that is getting overlooked.

Notre Dame clearly isn't as bad as its 3-5 record would indicate.  All five losses this season have come by a touchdown or less, so they've had a chance to win every game they've played in.  And the defense has been much better since changing coordinators.

In their last three games, the Fighting Irish have only given up an average of 18.0 points per game, 266.7 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  And the points are skewed.  They gave up a punt block TD against NC State, an INT return TD against Stanford, and two fumbles setting up two Miami TDs.  So they've given up four TDs over the past three weeks that weren't the defense's fault.

Navy is overrated right now due to home wins over Houston and Memphis recently.  But Houston went on to lose by 22 to SMU, while Memphis went on to lose by 29 to Tulsa.  So, both of those wins don't look nearly as good as they did when they happened.

Last week, Navy trailed by as much as 31 at South Florida.  But the Bulls packed it in and let Navy score four touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  This wound up being a 7-point win by USF, but it was a much bigger blowout than that.

I believe Notre Dame is the best team that Navy will have faced this season.  And the Fighting Irish clearly have a huge edge in talent in this game.  The Game of the Year line by Golden Nugget before the season was Notre Dame favored by 14, so we're getting over a touchdown of value here based on preseason expectations.

Notre Dame has owned Navy of late, winning five straight meetings with four of those coming by double-digits.  And the Fighting Irish have been favored by at least 13.5 in all five meetings over the past five seasons.  So this 6.5-point spread is a discount this week with supremely talented Notre Dame laying less than a touchdown.

Navy is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS on the road this season.  Its only win came at Tulane by 7 as 7-point favorites.  It lost to Air Force by 14 and to USF by 7, though as stated before that was a misleading final.  Notre Dame is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 8 or more yards per attempt.

The Midshipmen are 0-4-1 ATS in their last four road games overall.  Brian Kelly is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play as the coach of Notre Dame.  His teams are winning by 20.2 points per game on average in this spot having never lost.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* Temple/UConn ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Temple -10

The Temple Owls are in position to win the AAC East division.  They are 4-1 in the conference, tied with South Florida atop the standings.  They hold the tiebreaker, too, so they essentially control their own destiny.  With that goal in mind, they'll be laying it all on the line tonight against UConn.

The Owls simply get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 8-1 ATS this season after killing it last season against the spread as well.  They have covered eight straight games since a fluke opening loss to Army.  And they are getting better and better as the season has gone one.

When you look at the numbers, Temple should be better than 6-3 straight up.  It has actually outgained eight of its nine opponents this season with the lone exception coming in a 27-34 road loss at Penn State.  The last four games have been super-impressive.

Temple lost 27-34 at Memphis despite outgaining the Tigers by 204 yards and clearly should have won.  The Owls outgained UCF by 68 yards in a 26-25 road win the following week.  Then they came home and crushed USF 46-30 while outgaining them by 179 yards.  And they outgained Cincinnati by 288 yards in a 34-13 home win last week.

UConn is in a world of hurt right now.  It has lost three straight games with a 27-42 road loss at USF, a 16-24 home loss to UCF, and a 3-41 road loss at East Carolina last week.  Coach Bob Diaco fired his offensive coordinator after that performance against ECU.  He promoted his wide receivers coach, who has never been an offensive coordinator anywhere else before.

The fact of the matter is that a new WR coach isn't going to save this offense.  The Huskies are averaging just 18.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  QB Bryant Shirreffs has been terrible this season, and he's been the biggest problem.

Now the Huskies go up against a Temple defense that has been dominant once again.  The Owls are only giving up 22.7 points, 306 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They are holding opponents to 5.2 points and 80 yards per game less than their season averages.

And this Temple offense has really taken off this year.  It is averaging 33.8 points, 405 yards per game and 5.9 per play against opponents that allow 28.5 points and 5.3 per play.  The Owls put up 531 yards against Memphis, 518 against South Florida and 474 against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  They have rushed for 275 and 319 yards in their past two games, respectively.

Temple has blown UConn out of the building the past two seasons.  It won 27-3 last year as 13.5-point home favorites.  It also won 36-10 as 6-point road favorites in 2014.  More of the same can be expected this season, especially with what's at stake for the Owls.

UConn is 1-10 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the past two seasons.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TEMPLE) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Friday.

15* Falcons/Bucs AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -3.5

The Falcons are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL this season, and the numbers fully support it. They are 5-3 this season with their three losses coming by a combined 12 points. They are that close to being 8-0, and they finally got a break in a close game last week with a great win over the Packers.

The Falcons rank 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 46.0 yards per game. They are 1st in the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play. Those numbers alone show that the Falcons are among the league’s elite.

The Buccaneers may be 3-4, but they are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 29th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 38.3 yards per game. They rank 31st in yards per play differential, getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play.

Of course, the Bucs’ poor stats are largely due to their effort against the Raiders last week. There’s no way that game should have even gone to overtime. The Raiders committed 23 penalties and outgained the Bucs by a whopping 356 yards in that contest.

In fact, the Bucs have been outgained in five of their seven games this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have actually outgained six of their eight opponents this season. It’s clear to me by the numbers that the Falcons are contenders, and the Bucs are pretenders.

The Bucs are down several key weapons this week. They are without their top three running backs in Doug Martin, Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers. They are also without their No. 2 receiver in Vincent Jackson and top tight end Austin Saferian-Jenkins. Jameis Winston simply has too much on his plate right now.

The Bucs gave up a ridiculous 626 total yards to the Raiders last week, and now they’re up against the league’s top offense in the Falcons. Indeed, Atlanta ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense (425.2 yards/game), 1st in scoring offense (32.8 points/game) and 1st in yards per play (6.8 yards/play). The Bucs’ defense was on the field for 94 snaps in the OT loss to the Raiders, so they will be fatigued on this short week.

Matt Ryan and company want revenge on the Bucs from losing 24-31 in the opener at home. They also know that they’ve lost three straight in this series, and it’s time to end it. With the state the Bucs are in right now, it’s clear that is a likely possibility Thursday night.

The Falcons have played their best football on the road, going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. The Bucs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS at home this season, getting outscored by 10.3 points per game. Tampa Bay is 18-43-1 ATS in it s last 62 home games overall, and 5-14 ATS in home games over the past three seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Thursday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Buffalo +20

Just bet the road team in Ohio games.  It has been that simple.  Indeed, the road team is 9-0 ATS in Ohio games this season.  The Bobcats have gone 5-0 ATS on the road, but 0-4 ATS at home.  And they are certainly laying too many points at home here against Buffalo tonight as 20-point favorites.

Ohio lost at home 54-56 as 17-point favorites to Texas State in the opener, and Texas State is terrible.  Ohio only beat Gardner Webb 37-21 at home as 30-point favorites.  The Bobcats only beat Bowling Green 30-24 as 11.5-point home favorites.  They also lost to Eastern Michigan 20-27 as 8-point home favorites.  They clearly can't be trusted at home.

I also don't like this spot for the Bobcats.  They are coming off a huge upset 31-26 win at Toledo as 15-point dogs last week.  Now they have a 1.5-game lead over Miami Ohio in the MAC East standings because they own the tiebreaker with the Redhawks.  So, they can lose this game and STILL be in first place in the division.  They won't be that motivated at all to face Buffalo tonight.

The Buffalo Bulls come in with a lot of confidence off their strongest performance of the season.  They beat Akron 41-20 at home last week as 19.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Zips by 212 total yards in what was every bit the dominant effort that the final score showed.  They racked up a season-high 518 total yards, including 378 rushing and 9.0 per carry in the win.

Buffalo beat Ohio 41-17 as 3-point home dogs last season.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Buffalo Thursday.

15* Toledo/Akron MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -10

The Toledo Rockets are 6-2 this season and clearly a top contender to win the MAC.  But if they want to win the conference, they're going to have to win out because Western Michigan likely isn't going to lose a game until these teams meet in the final week of the season.

The Rockets could easily be 8-0 as well.  Their two losses have come by 2 points at BYU and by 5 points against Ohio.  They lost to Ohio last week and will certainly be hungry to bounce back from that defeat here, adding to their motivation.

What impresses me the most about the Rockets is the fact that they have outgained all eight opponents this season, including five by more than 100 yards.  Their offense is putting up 39.4 points and 544 yards per game, while their defense is giving up 23.5 points and 377 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per game and outgaining them by 167 yards per game.

Akron is very fortunate to be 5-4 this season.  The Zips have only outgained three of their nine opponents, and one of those was Virginia Military in the opener.  They outgained Ball State by 86 yards and Miami Ohio by 39 yards for the other two.

Akron is only gaining 401 yards per game on the season and giving up a whopping 483 yards per game, getting outgained by 82 yards per game on the season.  They cannot run the ball as they only average 135 yards per game on the ground, so they are losing the time of possession battle nearly 35 minutes to 25 minutes on average.

Two of Akron's last three games really stand out and make be believe that Toledo should have no problem covering this 10-point spread.  Akron lost 41-0 at home to Western Michigan and was outgained by 302 yards.  Then the Zips lost 20-41 at Buffalo while getting outgained by 212 yards last week.  Buffalo is the worst team in the MAC, too.

Toledo is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game over the past two seasons.  The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, so they've clearly had no trouble winning away from home.  Roll with Toledo Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green +17

The Bowling Green Falcons have been improving big-time as the season has gone on.  But they still remain undervalued here as they are catching 17 points in this MAC rivalry game with the Northern Illinois Huskies.  It's simply way too much.

Each of Bowling Green's last four losses have come by 14 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer.  And I was super-impressed with two of those efforts on the road.  The Falcons haven't been outgained by more than 39 yards in any of their last four games.

Bowling Green only lost 24-30 at Ohio as 11.5-point dogs while only getting outgained by 19 yards.  The Falcons then went to Toledo and lost 35-42 as 31.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 39 yards in that contest.

Northern Illinois is just 2-6 on the season and doesn't deserve to be getting this much respect from oddsmakes.  But the Huskies come in undervalued due to easily covering as 24-point favorites in a 44-7 win over Buffalo.  But Buffalo is easily the worst team in the MAC this season.

The Falcons are going to be able to move the football on a Northern Illinois defense that hasn't been good at all this season.  The Huskies are giving up 33.5 points per game, 477 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  That has been the biggest reason for their disastrous campaign thus far.

The Falcons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bowling Green is 41-20-2 ATS in its last 63 road games overall.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Bowling Green Tuesday.