Winning Sports Picks

15* Washington State/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on California +14

The Washington State Cougars are way overvalued right now due to their 6-0 start while being ranked No. 8 in the country.  But they couldn't have played an easier schedule up to this point, and they have caught some unbelievable breaks along the way, which we'll get to.

For starters, Washington State opened with five straight home games.  They beat Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada in non-conference.  And they were trailing by 21 at home to Boise State before starting QB Brett Rypien got hurt, and they had a miraculous comeback to win 47-44 against a Boise team that simply isn't very good this year.

Their first Pac-12 game came at home against USC on a Friday night in front of a rowdy home crowd.  They were trailing in that game 17-10, and then all of a sudden USC lost three starting offensive linemen to injury, and the Trojans only managed 10 points over the final 40 minutes of the game as Sam Darnold was under duress behind that shaky O-Line.

The breaks continue last week for the Cougars as they faced an Oregon team with a third-string quarterback and several other key injuries.  They took advantage and won as they should have 33-10 on the road as 1-point favorites.  Now I think they are getting way too much respect here as 14-point road favorites at California.

The Golden Bears have had to play the much tougher schedule.  They opened 3-0 in the non-conference beating UNC on the road, and Weber State and Ole Miss at home despite being dogs in two of those games.  Then they played a great game against a healthy USC team, but lost 20-30 as 17-point home dogs despite committing six turnovers in that game.

Then they played a healthy Oregon team on the road and lost 24-45 as 17-point dogs before falling 7-38 on the road as 29-point dogs at Washington last week.  Those may have been the three best teams in the Pac-12 at the time they faced them, and now after two non-covers in a row, I think the Golden Bears come into this game undervalued.

Justin Wilcox, the former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, was one of the more underrated hires of the offseason.  Turning around a Cal defense that gave up 42.6 points and 518 yards per game last season was going to be no easy task, and it's remarkable what he's been able to do on that side of the ball already in his first season.

This is a Cal defense that is only giving up 5.5 yards per play against team that average 6.4 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.9 yards per play below their season average.  To compare, Cal allowed 6.7 yards per play last season.  Washington State's numbers are skewed on both sides of the ball because of the lack of competition and the scheduling breaks thus far.

Cal has won 10 of its last 12 meetings with Washington State straight up.  Washington State has only been a double-digit road favorite six times in the last 25 years!  Mike Leach is 4-14 ATS in road games after a game where his team forced 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  Leach is 3-14 ATS in his last 17 road games off three or more consecutive wins.  Take California Friday.

20* Clemson/Syracuse ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +22.5

We're starting to see the Clemson Tigers having to lay some inflated prices here of late because of all of the love they are getting from the public.  They have gone just 1-2 ATS in their last three games overall, and now they are overvalued once again as 22.5-point road favorites at Syracuse Friday night.

They beat Boston College 34-7 as 33-point favorites three weeks ago.  But that was a 7-7 game entering the 4th quarter.  They won and covered at VA Tech 31-17 as 7-point road favorites two weeks ago, but that was a misleading final as the Tigers were held to 332 total yards and outgained by 10 yards by the Hokies, but won the turnover battle 3-0.  Then last week they only won 28-14 at Wake Forest as 21-point favorites.

This is an upstart Syracuse team that is on the rise in the second season under Dino Babers.  They returned a whopping 19 starters this season and are clearly improved.  They have been competitive in every game, and their performances against the top teams they've faced show that they can hang with Clemson, especially in a nationally televised home game inside what will be a rowdy Carrier Dome Friday night.

Syracuse only lost 26-35 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, only getting outgained by 30 yards in that game.  More impressive may have been their 25-33 loss at NC State as 14-point dogs as they were only outgained by 18 yards in that game.  That's an NC State team that is among the best in the ACC this year, and that was on the road.

I think a big reason this line is so big is because Clemson won 54-0 at home over Syracuse last year.  I remember that game quite well because I was on Syracuse.  And when starting QB Eric Dungy was knocked out of the game in the first quarter, I knew I was in trouble.  Dungey means everything to this team.  He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,802 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 325 yards and eight scores.  They would be in trouble without him.

Now it's time for Dungey and Syracuse to redeem themselves.  They will be talking about that 54-0 loss all week leading up to this game.  They will be desperate to show that they are a much better team than what they showed last year.  And playing at home will help.  After all, Syracuse only lost 27-37 as 30-point home dogs to a very good Clemson team the season prior in 2015.

It's worth nothing that Clemson starting QB Kelly Bryant suffered an ankle injury against Wake Forest last week.  He is probable to start, but he won't be at 100% if he does, and his mobility is his biggest weapon.  "He'll be day-to-day, and we'll see how he progresses through the week," Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said. "If he's ready to play, he'll go play. If he's not, we'll play the next guy."

Clemson is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 games following three straight conference wins.  Syracuse is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 home games after covering the spread in two of its last three games coming in.  The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Syracuse Friday.

20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5

This is a huge game between a pair of 4-1 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers that could ultimately have home-field advantage implications in the playoffs down the road.  I think this will be a very intense game between two of the best teams in the NFC, and I expect the defenses will have the edge in this one.

I also believe this total has been inflated due to the fact that the Panthers have gone over the total in three straight now.  But that was largely due to playing three poor defenses in the Saints, Patriots and Lions, but now they're up against a vastly underrated Eagles defense.  And the Panthers simply aren't a very good offensive team.

The Panthers only average 21.0 points, 327 yards per game and 5.5 per play against opponents that allow 368 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The injuries for the Panthers on offense are going to hold them back.  They are without Cam Newton's favorite weapon in Greg Olsen, and C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess and RB Jonathan Stewart are all questionable for this game.

The biggest reason for Carolina's turnaround this season has been its elite defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 18.8 points per game, 274 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  They have shown tremendous improvement against the pass, giving up just 194 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt against teams that average 237 yards per game and 6.7 per attempt.

While Carson Wentz has turned the corner and is playing much better this season, a big reason for the Eagles' turnaround has been a defense that only gives up 19.8 points per game.  And now they get their best defensive player in DT Fletcher Cox back from injury this week.  The run defense has been particularly good, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game.  That will be key against a Panthers team that loves to run the football, averaging 29 rushing attempts per game compared to 30 pass attempts, a rare 50/50 split in today's NFL.

Wentz will face his stiffest test yet here against this Panthers defense.  The Eagles have been humming along offensively, but they lost their best linemen in RT Lane Johnson due to injury, and Wentz was not nearly as good without him last year.  In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, the Eagles are 9-2 when Johnson plays, and 2-8 when he does not.  Wentz completes 64.8% of his passes, averaging 7 YPA and a 10:2 TD/INT ratio with him, and 61.2%, 5.9 YPA and 6:12 TD/INT ratio without him.

The Eagles are also running the ball more this season, averaging 31 rushing attempts per game compared to 35 passing.  And the Panthers are great against the run too, giving up 80 rushing yards per game.  I think both offenses are going to be in more 3rd-and-long situations than they're used to because of both defenses ability to stop the run.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 59-24 (71.1%) since 1983.  

Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Panthers are 71-46 UNDER in their last 117 games as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 39-17 in Eagles last 56 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Texas State/UL Lafayette CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on OVER 56

We have a battle between two of the worst defenses in the country here in UL Lafayette and Texas State.  I believe the oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game, and the OVER 56 is a very nice bet here in Sun Belt action Thursday night.

The UL Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns have been in high-scoring games all season, other than last week against Idaho, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Lafayette is 4-1 to the OVER.  It is scoring 37.0 points per game this season, while giving up a whopping 46.2 points per game.  Thats an average of 83 combined points per game, which is 27 points more than this posted total of 56.

Texas State is giving up 33.7 points per game overall with a terrible defense.  The offense has not been good for the Bobcats, averaging just 14.5 points per game.  That's a combined 52 points per game, which is only 4 points less than this posted total of 56.  And I think the Bobcats will certainly get right offensively against this horrid Lafayette defense.

The Bobcats have gone OVER the total in each of their last three games.  They allowed 44 points to UTSA, 45 to Wyoming and 45 to LA Monroe.  This Louisiana offense should post a huge number and cover most of this OVER on their own, especially since they've made to the switch to Andre Nunez at quarterback.  Numez is completing 65.6% of his passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns with one INT while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.  The previous starter Jordan Davis was only completing 58.9% and averaging 6.3 per attempt.

The last two meetings at Lafayette have been extremely high-scoring.  Lafayette won 49-27 in 2015 for 76 combined points, and 48-24 in 2013 for 72 combined points.  The Rajin' Cajuns are averaging 50.5 points per game at home this season and giving up 52.0 points per game.  The Bobcats are allowing 41.0 points point game on the road.

Lafayette is 7-0 OVER in its last seven home games off an upset win as a road dog.  Lafayette is 35-13 OVER in its last 48 games as a home favorite.  Texas State is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 road games versus poor rushing defense that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt No-Brainer on South Alabama +17

The Troy Trojans are in a massive letdown spot here.  They are coming off the biggest win in program history, winning 24-21 outright at LSU as 20.5-point road underdogs last time out.  Now they've been getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they won't have their best effort as they'll feel like they can just show up and win.

We saw a similar situation last year in which Troy was coming off a huge win over Appalachian State.  They moved into the Top 25 after that win, then promptly lost at home to Arkansas State 3-35 as 8-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 40 points.  The Trojans cannot be laying this kind of price given the terrible spot they are in mentally.

The South Alabama Jaguars have played a brutal schedule as they opened with Ole Miss and Oklahoma State.  They got right in a 45-0 win over Alabama A&M the next week, then lost in overtime to Idaho before falling 16-34 at LA Tech.  But that was a 17-16 game against LA Tech in the fourth quarter and a misleading final.

South Alabama gets some good news this week as starting QB Cole Garvin will be in the lineup.  He has missed 2.5 games due to injury, and that has been a big reason for their early struggles, along with the tough schedule.  I look for a big effort from the Jaguars here against their in-state rivals.

Troy has been overvalued all season up until that LSU game, going 1-4 ATS in its five games.  It only won 27-24 at New Mexico State as 9-point favorites, and 22-17 at home over Akron as 17-point favorites.  Those two results right there show that the Trojans can't be laying these big numbers.

This has become a bigger rivalry than most know, and I love big dogs in rivalry games.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  South Alabama only lost 34-33 at Troy in 2013 as 3.5-point dogs, won 27-13 at home in 2014 as 16-point favorites, won 24-18 at Troy as 6-point dogs in 2014, and covered as 9.5-point home dogs last year in a 21-28 loss.   As you can see, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, and three of those 7 points or fewer.

Plays on road teams (S ALABAMA) - after having lost three out of their last four games, in the first half of the season are 84-46 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  South Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games in the first half of the season.  Troy is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Troy is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.  The Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet South Alabama Wednesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3

The Chicago Bears have decided to start their No. 2 overall pick in Mitchell Trubisky against the Minnesota Vikings this week.  It was perfect timing because the Bears played last Thursday, giving Trubisky a full week and a half of prep time to get ready for the Vikings on Monday.

Teams coming off a Thursday game are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  The Chiefs & Patriots both covered in Week 2, the Texans & Bengals both covered in Week 3, and the Rams and 49ers both covered in Week 4.  That extra rest is huge in the NFL, and I look for a big performance from the Bears Monday thanks to it.

The Bears have played two monster home games this season and really should be 2-0.  If not for a couple drops at the end, they would have beaten the Falcons in Week 1.  Instead they lost 17-23 as 6.5-point dogs.  Then they won outright as 7-point dogs in a 23-17 overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3.  The Falcons and Steelers are two of the best teams in the NFL.

Mike Glennon has killed the Bears with all of his turnovers.  The Bears have given the ball away a league-most 10 times and are -7 in turnover differential this season.  That's why the switch to Trubisky was warranted, and he lit it up in the preseason and clearly has the higher upside.

The Bears lost 14-35 at Green Bay last Thursday, but that final was misleading and has them undervalued here.  They gave the game away with four turnovers and many short fields for the Packers.  Their defense played well, limiting the Packers to just 260 total yards.  This is an underrated Bears stop unit that ranks No. 8 in the NFL in total defense.

The Vikings lost their best playmaker in Dalvin Cook to a season-ending ACL injury last week.  He had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus games.  Now it's Latavius Murray and his bum ankle that's supposed to replace him.  Well, Murray will be making his season debut and clearly isn't 100%.

"To be honest, I think I'm still getting to that point," said Murray, 27, who spent the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. "It's not going to quite feel the same for awhile. I knew that dealing with my previous ankle procedure. For me, it's being well enough to be out there and being able to help the team be successful. I feel good enough to be out there, and I'm confident in myself that I can play at a high level."

The Vikings have been without Sam Bradford for the past three games because of a knee injury, and he is still questionable to play Monday night.  Even if he does go, he won't be 100% and will be nursing that knee injury.  And if backup Case Keenum starts again it will be a bonus for us.  But either way, the Vikings shouldn't be favored by a field goal on the road here.

That's especially the case when you consider the Bears are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Vikings.  They won 20-10 at home last season as 5.5-point dogs on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Chicago.  The home team is 21-8 ATS in the last 29 meetings.

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Monday Night games.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Chicago is 7-0 ATS in all games where the total is 35.5 to 42 over the last three years.  These last three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Chicago.  Bet the Bears Monday.

15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys are going to be pissed off from their home loss to the Rams last week.  That was a tough spot for them as they were coming off a Monday night game, while the Rams were coming off a Thursday game.  I was on the Rams last week because of the spot.

This week I'm hopping on the motivated Cowboys, who will be out for revenge after losing to the Packers 31-34 at home in the playoffs last year.  That came after they had beaten the Packers 30-16 in the regular season on the road.  The Cowboys outgained the Packers in both meetings and were clearly the better team.  I think that's the case again in 2017.

The Packers come in overvalued off their 35-14 win over the Bears last week.  But that score couldn't have been more misleading.  The Bears gave the game away by committing four turnovers.  They actually held the Packers to just 260 total yards in that game.  And the week before, the Packers never led the Bengals until overtime in a 27-24 victory as 7-point home favorites.

This is a Packers offense that is in a world of hurt right no due to all the injuries.  They have been playing without their two starting tackles in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, and it's questionable whether they'll return this week.  And two key playmakers in RB Ty Montgomery and WR Davante Adams got hurt against Chicago, and both are expected to miss this game.

The Cowboys have been fortunate in the health department.  They have no key injuries on offense.  All of their injuries have been on defense, and for the most part they are healthy.  Sean Lee missed last week with a hamstring injury and there's a chance he could return this week.  Anthony Hitchens, Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are all questionable as well.  But they get back DL David Irving from suspension, and he's an impact player up front.

The Packers are actually below .500 on the road since 2011.  They are 3-13 on the road against playoff teams since 2011.  And the Cowboys are likely to be a playoff team this season.  The Packers were overmatched in their only road game this season, losing 23-34 at Atlanta.  That was a 34-10 game entering the fourth quarter before Green Bay tacked on two touchdowns in garbage time.

Green Bay has been vulnerable against the run this season, giving up 111 rushing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a ground attack as good as the Cowboys.  Dallas is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.  They will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football in this one, which will be the key to their victory.

Dallas is 6-0 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their previous game over the past two seasons. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off two or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 36-10 (78.3%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Rams still aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers and the betting public.  Most believe that their 3-1 start is a fluke, but I'm a buyer on this team, and I certainly think they are better than the Seahawks right now.  That's why we'll pull the trigger on the Rams as only 1-point favorites against the Seahawks here.

The Rams lead the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 35.5 points per game and 6.5 yards per play on the season.  Jared Goff is averaging a whopping 9 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.5% of his passes.  Sean McVay is working wonders with Goff right now as one of the best offensive minds in the game.

The Seahawks keep getting treated like they are Super Bowl contenders from the betting public and oddsmakers.  As a result, they've gone just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, consistently being overvalued this year.  And they looked terrible for a half against the Colts, actually trailing 10-15 going into halftime.  I don't think one good half against an awful Colts team changes my opinion on this team as they ended up cruising to a 46-18 victory.

The Rams are extremely healthy right now, which is about the only thing that has been lucky with this team thus far.  The same cannot be said for the Seahawks.  Seattle had mass injuries in the win over the Colts.  They lost another starting lineman in Rees Odhiambo.  CB Jeremy Lane and DE Cliff Avril were both knocked out, as was RB Chris Carson.  Both Carson and Avril will be out for this game, while Lane, Odhiambo and CB Neiko Thorpe are all questionable for this contest.

The Rams have had the Seahawks' number in recent meetings.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  The key to their success has been their dominant defensive line up against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  It will be more of the same here as the Rams will win the battle in the trenches, and it will take a Russell Wilson miracle to overcome all of their offensive line woes.  He hasn't been able to in recent meetings with Aaron Donald and the Rams.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons.  The Seahawks are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games off a blowout home win by 21 points or more.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.  Look for a rejuvenated Rams' fan base to come out in bunches for this key divisional game.

Plays on favorites (LA RAMS) - after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Rams Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

The Cincinnati Bengals felt like they should have beaten the Packers in Week 3.  They led the entire way until overtime, and lost 24-27 as 7-point road dogs at Lambeau Field.  They dropped to 0-3 and easily could have quit on their season.

Instead, they showed a ton of fight in a 31-7 win at Cleveland as 3.5-point favorites, playing their best game of the season.  Andy Dalton has shown a ton of resiliency after a disastrous start to the season.  He has completed 46-of-57 passes (80.7%) for 498 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games.

At 1-3 on the season, the Bengals feel like they still have their backs against the wall.  They cannot afford to take any games off moving forward.  They need this win here at home against the Bills.  And they won't be looking ahead to their game against the Steelers because they get a bye next week.  They will be 100% focused on beating the Bills here. 

This team now has the belief, especially with their motivational leader in Vontaze Burfict returning from suspension last week.  It's no coincidence that the defense came through with their best effort last week, limiting the Browns to just 7 points and 215 total yards.  This is a defense that is now giving up just 16.7 points, 273 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.

The offense came to life the last two weeks as well, and that should continue moving forward with all of the talent they have on this side of the ball.  They still boast A.J. Green and the three-headed monster at running back in Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.  And Dalton has clearly found a way to get his weapons the ball with efficiency the last two weeks.

The Buffalo Bills are feeling fat and happy right now after their surprising 3-1 start.  After beating the Broncos at home, the Bills got a huge break last week when both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were knocked out of the game with injuries.  Clearly, the Falcons are just an average team without those two.  And the Bills took advantage and pulled the 23-17 road upset as 8-point dogs.  Now, this is a clear letdown spot for Buffalo.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively as the Bills also have a very good D.  But there's no question the Bengals have the better offense.  The Bills are averaging just 18.2 points, 284 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play offensively. They are only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and 171 passing yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor has done a good job of keeping the Bills in games by not turning the ball over.  In fact, the Bills have committed just one turnover all season, compared to eight for Cincinnati.  There is going to be some regression to the mean here as the Bills are +6 in turnover differential, while the Bengals are -5. 

And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play.  The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.

Cincinnati is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after leading the previous game by 14 points or more at the half.  Buffalo is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good defensive teams that allow 4.75 or fewer yards per play this season.

Plays on favorites (CINCINNATI) - after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* Stanford/Utah Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +6

The Utah Utes are coming off a bye week having last played on Friday, September 22nd in a gutsy 30-24 road win to improve to 4-0 on the season.  They lost starting QB Tyler Huntley in the first half of that game, yet still found a way to win.  Now they'll be the fresher, more prepared team heading into this showdown with Stanford.

It helps that the Utes have a veteran backup in Troy Williams, who started all 13 games for them last year while leading the Utes to a 9-4 campaign.  He is one of the best backups in the country and isn't a very big downgrade at all from Huntley.  I think oddsmakers are adjusting way too much here for the Huntley injury.

Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City is one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  It feels like the fans are right on top of you because they are so close to the field.  The Utes have gone 12-3 at home over the past three seasons, and all three losses have come by a touchdown or less.

I think the Bryce Love Heisman hype after back-to-back huge games has Stanford overrated right now.  But he did his damage against two of the worst defenses in the country in UCLA and Arizona State the past two weeks.  Now Love will be up against a stout Utah defense that is allowing only 86 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry this season.

Stanford is still limited in the passing game, only once topping 173 passing yards this season, and that was in the opener against Rice.  I think Utah's ability to stop love and the Stanford ground attack will be the key to them not only covering, but likely winning this game outright Saturday night.

Kyle Whittingham has had Stanford's number in recent meetings.  The Utes are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings.  They won outright as 10-point road dogs in 2014, and outright as 7.5-point home dogs in 2013.  They simply match up well with the Cardinal because they play similar styles.

And one thing that always gets overlooked by bettors with Utah is their dominant special teams, which is one of the best units in the land year after year.  Reigning Ray Guy Award winner Mitch Wishnowky is averaging 46.8 yards per punt, and the Utes are giving up -1 net yards per punt this season, so they're fielding well.  Also, Matt Gay is 14-for-14 on field goal attempts this season, leading the nation in scoring.  Special teams could easily be the difference in this type of game.

Utah is 63-35 ATS in its last 98 games as a dog, including 36-19 ATS in its last 55 games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Utes are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest.  Take Utah Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -3.5

The Texas Longhorns are improving rapidly right now under Tom Herman.  After losing to Maryland in the opener, they've gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games, covering the spread by a combined 50 points in the process.  They beat San Jose State 56-0, took USC to overtime on the road, and picked up a nice 17-7 road win at Iowa State in their Big 12 opener.  They remain undervalued here as only 3.5-point home favorites against Kansas State.

That game against Iowa State was playing last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week to get ready for this game, which is certainly an advantage.  I think the Longhorns will be focused for this game because they are just 2-2, whereas if they were 4-0 they could be looking ahead to Oklahoma.  Herman won't let them look ahead to that game given the situation.  This 3.5-point spread looks short to me.

Kansas State has been shaky the last two weeks against two mediocre teams.  Their lost 7-14 at Vanderbilt, and that loss looks even worse after Vandy lost by 59 to Alabama and 14 to Florida.  Then they only beat a winless Baylor team 33-20 at home last week.  They were actually outgained by 31 yards by the Bears.

The Wildcats are a one-dimensional team that can only run the ball.  In the last two games against Vanderbilt and Baylor, they have gone a combined 17-of-45 passing for 195 yards.  That's just 38% completions and 98 passing yards per game.

That makes this an excellent matchup for the Longhorns.  Texas has held its last three opponents to just 123 rushing yards on 75 attempts, or a measly 1.6 yards per carry.  Their defensive front seven is clearly one of the best units in the country, and that will be the key to them winning and covering this measly 3.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games off a two-game road trip.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* LSU/Florida SEC No-Brainer on LSU +3.5

The LSU Tigers were thoroughly embarrassed with their 21-24 home loss to Troy as 20.5-point favorites.  They have been taking grief in the media all week, and they really just can't wait to get out and hit somebody Saturday to take out their frustration.  I fully expect the best performance of the season from LSU given their mental state coming into this game against Florida.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were upset 10-16 at home by Florida as 13.5-point favorites last year.  They haven't forgotten about it.  There's no way they should have lost that game either as they outgained the Gators by 153 yards for the game.  Their red zone struggles were the difference, and Florida's only TD was a fluke 98-yard TD pass to Tyrie Cleveland.

The Gators continue to be the most lucky team in college football.  They could easily be 0-4 right now instead of 3-1.  They won on a hail mary on the final play against Tennessee, scored in the closing seconds to beat Kentucky 28-27, and only led Vanderbilt 31-24 in the final seconds before breaking a long TD run when they could have just run out the clock.

And those wins clearly don't look that good now.  Tennessee was beaten 41-0 at home by Georgia, Vanderbilt was beaten 59-0 at home by Alabama, and Kentucky only beat Eastern Michigan 24-20 at home last week.  This Florida team is a fraud, and it showed against a team of LSU's caliber in their opener in a 17-33 loss to Michigan.  The Gators were outgained by 241 yards by the Wolverines.

This is where all those Florida injuries and suspensions catches up to them like it did against a team the class of Michigan.  Plus, the Gators are now expected to be without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland (15 receptions, 326 yards, 2 TD, 21.7/reception), who is doubtful with an ankle injury suffered in that win over Vanderbilt last week.  To say the Gators are lacking playmakers on offense would be a massive understatement.

Conversely, LSU gets some good news on the injury front as star RB Derrius Guice is probable to play Saturday.  He sat out last week's game against Troy, which was a big reason they were upset.  He rushed for 1,387 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.6/carry last year.  Not to mention, fellow starters DE Rashard Lawrence and LB Corey Thompson are both probable to play as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 48-19 (71.6%) ATS since 1992.  LSU is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games following a loss.  The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  LSU is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Florida. Take LSU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas +17.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a huge flat spot here against Kansas.  After pulling off the 27-24 upset at Houston, the Red Raiders had their shot to upset Oklahoma State at home last week, but fell just short with a 35-42 loss.  After playing one of the top teams in the country, they certainly aren't going to be able to get up for Kansas this week.

And I think the Red Raiders are getting way too much respect for what they've done the last two weeks.  I think Houston is way down this season compared to last year, and a closer look at the Oklahoma State game shows that it was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate.  The Cowboys outgained the Red Raiders by 213 yards.  Texas Tech had a 95-yard INT return TD, and Oklahoma State settled for several short field goals, missing a couple of them as well.

One key to this game is that Texas Tech is going to be without leading receiver Keke Coutee, who suffered a knee injury against Oklahoma State and is doubtful to play this week.  Nic Shimonek looked lost without him against the Cowboys.  Coutee is by far the leading receiver on this game, catching 31 balls for 499 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 16.1 yards per reception.

Texas Tech has been a terrible road team in recent years.  We saw them losing 10-66 at Iowa State last year a week after narrowly falling short against Oklahoma State in a 44-45 loss.  This is the exact same situation against a Big 12 bottom feeder in Kansas.

But the Jayhawks are steadily improving in the third season under David Beaty.  They have been competitive in all four of their games this year.  Their offense has taken a big step forward, averaging 32.2 points and 480 yards per game thus far.  Of course their defense isn't very good, but it's not much worse than that of Texas Tech, which fields one of the worst defenses in the country every year.

This offense put up 34 points and 564 total yards against West Virgina in their last game.  Now the Jayhawks have had two full weeks to prepare for Texas Tech after getting a bye last week.  That's a big advantage and one that will be useful for a team like Kansas.  

This is a Kansas team that was competitive at home last year, only losing 23-24 to TCU as 28-point dogs, losing 24-31 to Iowa State as 11-point dogs, and actually upsetting Texas 24-21 as 23-point dogs.  They have what it takes to hang with Texas Tech, especially given the situation.

Kansas is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.  Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Red Raiders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tulane -4

Willie Fritz is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  Now just look how far Georgia Southern has fallen since his departure.

Fritz took the Tulane job knowing it would be a rebuilding process.  Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread offense to Tulane in '16 and did not have the right personnel to run it. Now he does, and he welcomed back a whopping 16 starters this year, while recruiting the perfect dual-threat QB in Jonathan Banks.

The Green Wave have opened 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in 2017 and are clearly undervalued.  They beat Grambline 43-14, gave Navy all they wanted as 8-point road dogs in a 21-23 loss, and beat Army 21-17 at home as 3-point favorites.  And they should have covered against Oklahoma and actually had a 14-7 lead over the Sooners in the second quarter before falling apart after half.

Tulane had a bye last week.  It couldn't have come at a better time following that brutal three-game stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army.  So they'll be fresh and ready to go Saturday against a tired, undermanned Tulsa team that will be playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.

This was clearly going to be a rebuilding year for Tulsa after all they lost in the offseason.  They lost all of their top skill players on offense, and have opened 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS through five games.  Their last two games have been particularly concerning.

They lost 13-16 at home to New Mexico as 7.5-point favorites.  New Mexico was starting its third-string quarterback due to injury, and the Lobos should have won by more as they outgained Tulsa by 160 yards.  Then they had to play Navy last week, getting outgained by 167 yards in a 21-31 home loss.

Tulsa has been hit in the mouth by some elite rushing attacks this season, and they haven't offered any resistance.  The Golden Hurricane are giving up a ridiculous 320 rushing yards per game and 6.7 per carry this season.  That makes this a terrible matchup for them against a Tulane team that will shove it down their throat, too.

The Green Wave are averaging 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  And it's clearly that the Green Wave have one of the better defenses in the AAC.  They are giving up 27.5 points, 388 yards per game and 6.2 per play against opponents that average 31.3 points, 428 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So they have been well better than average defensively.  That can't be said for Tulsa, which is giving up 40.4 points, 574 yards per game and 8.2 per play.

Tulane is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Tulsa is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Green Wave have only committed two turnovers in four games.  Fritz is 17-6 ATS as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Fritz is 12-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game as a head coach.  Roll with Tulane Saturday.

20* Memphis/UConn AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on UConn +14

The Memphis Tigers have been extremely overrated this season.  They are 3-1 SU but just 1-3 ATS.  They are getting way too much respect for their 48-45 home win over UCLA in Week 3.  That was a 9:00 AM local time start for UCLA and they simply weren't ready to play.  And the fact of the matter is that UCLA team just isn't very good, especially defensively.

The other three games have been very concerning for Memphis.  They only beat Louisiana Monroe 37-29 as 28-point home favorites and FCS foe Southern Illinois 44-31 as 30-point home favorites.  Then I had UCF as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR last week against Memphis, and the Golden Knights rolled to a 40-13 home victory over the Tigers as 5.5-point favorites.  As you can see, the Tigers haven't even come close to covering the spread in any of those three games.

Now Memphis is being asked to go on the road for just the second time this season and lay two touchdowns to Connecticut.  Of course, the Huskies are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS on the season, so oddsmakers have to set the number high to try and even out the action.  But I've seen some signs from the Huskies here lately that make be believe they can hang with Memphis.

The 18-38 loss at Virginia doesn't look so bad now after Virginia went into Boise State and crushed them 42-23 as 13.5-point underdogs.  UConn then lost to ECU 38-41 in a game that was dead even in total yards.  The Huskies then played an upstart SMU team that is covering spreads left and right and lost 28-49 on the road as 16.5-point dogs.  But that was a 28-28 game in the 4th quarter before the Mustangs scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute span to pull away.  It was a misleading final score.  And that SMU team is better than Memphis.

I've been most impressed with Randy Edsall's ability to bring this UConn offense to life.  The Huskies are averaging 27.7 points, 467 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  They are right there with Memphis statistically.  The Tigers are scoring 35.5 points, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.4 per play.  UConn QB Bryant Sherrifs has been a revelation, completing 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 11 yards per attempt.

Neither team offers much to like defensively.  The Tigers are giving up 36.2 points, 513 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The Huskies are yielding 37.0 points, 542 yards per game and 6.8 per play.  So give the Tigers a slight edge defensively, but not much.  Given the closeness of the stats and the home-field advantage for the Huskies, there's no way they should be catching two touchdowns here.

Mike Norvell is 0-6 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of Memphis.  UConn is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Memphis is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.  

Plays against road favorites (MEMPHIS) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet UConn Friday.

20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56

All the talk coming into this game is how poor the defenses have been playing for both the Bucs and Patriots.  That has forced oddsmakers to post an inflated number, and now the value is clearly with the UNDER 56 points in this matchup Thursday night.

The Patriots have been the worst defensive team in the NFL thus far.  What are the chances of it remaining that way moving forward with Bill Belichick at the helm?  Slim to none.  I look for a big effort from the Patriots' defense in this one to try and prove their naysayers wrong.

And you can bet that Tom Brady and company will be trying to help out the defense as much as possible.  And that means slowing down the pace, moving the chains, and keeping the defense off the field.  Look for the Patriots to go to more of a ball control offense moving forward until the defense catches up.

Injuries were a big reason why the Bucs gave up 34 points at Minnesota in Week 3.  But they are expected to have both Kwon Alexander and Brent Grimes in this one, two players they didn't have in that game.  Plus T.J. Ward could return from a quad injury.

The Bucs have a ton of talent on defense and will be fine moving forward.  They have been much better at home this season, limiting their two opponents to just 15.0 points per game.  I believe they'll fare better against the Patriots on that side of the ball than most are expecting.

Tampa Bay has had to rely on the pass too much in the early going, only averaging 85 rushing yards per game.  But they should have more balance now with Doug Martin returning from his three-game suspension.  More runs means the clock will keep moving with fewer incompletions, which aids the under.

Plays on the UNDER on roadteams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after going over the total by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last 10 seasons.  After four straight overs by the Patriots to open the season, this number is simply inflated.  We'll go against the public perception here and back the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Louisville/NC State ACC No-Brainer on NC State +4.5

The NC State Wolfpack are a team I had pegged as a big sleeper to win the Atlantic Division coming into the year.  They returned 17 starters, a stud QB in Ryan Finley, and one of the best defensive lines in the country.  From what I've seen so far, they will be right there until the end.

NC State should be 5-0.  They lost the opener 28-35 to South Carolina despite outgaining the Gamecocks by 258 yards.  That loss has kept them under the radar.  They have reeled off four straight wins since, beating Marshall, Furman and Syracuse at home, and then pulling the impressive 27-21 upset as 10.5-point road dogs at Florida State that really shows what they're capable of.

Louisville gets a lot of love from the betting public because of Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson.  But this team really isn't that good despite their 4-1 record.  They have gone 1-4 ATS with their only cover coming by a half-point 47-35 at UNC as 11.5-point favorites.  Well, UNC is 1-4 this season.  They lost 21-47 at home to Clemson in a game that shows what their real potential is.

NC State is going to want revenge from an ugly 54-13 loss at Louisville last season.  That will show up from the Wolfpack defense that features eight senior starters.  They have given up just 20.5 points per game since allowing 35 points to South Carolina despite holding the Gamecocks to 246 total yards, so that point total was a fluke.  Their Run D will be key here stopping Lamar Jackson.  The Wolfpack are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.

And Finley and company should find plenty of success against a leaky Louisville defense that has allowed 28 or more points in the three games against Power 5 opponents outside Kent State and Murray State.  Finley is completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,403 yards with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio on the season.  The Wolfpack have only committed two turnovers all season, while the Cardinals have given the ball away 10 times and can be very sloppy with it at times.

Dave Doeren is 9-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins as the coach of NC State.  Louisville is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.  Take NC State Thursday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this matchup between the Washington Redskins and Kansas City Chiefs Monday night.  I full expect a defensive battle here and for points to be much harder to come by than this 49.5-point total would suggest.

One of the surprises of this young season is just how well the Redskins have played defensively.  They are only giving up 20.0 points, 272 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 29.4 points, 348 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 9.4 points, 76 yards and 0.7 yards per play less than their season average.

Of course, nobody has had a better defensive performance than the Redskins had last week in dismantling the Raiders 27-10.  That was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They held the Raiders to just 128 total yards and forced three turnovers.  That's very impressive when you consider how much talent is on that Oakland offense.

The Chiefs have played well offensively thus far, but they won't keep up this pace as this is still a limited offense.  More than anything, the Chiefs have been winning with defense once again.  They are giving up just 19.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 24.9 points and 6.0 yards per play.  Despite playing some very good offenses, both defenses have really shown well thus far.

Both teams are actually relying very heavily on the run this season, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Redskins are rushing for 136 yards per game while the Chiefs are averaging 162 yards per game on the ground.  And both quarterbacks have been extremely accurate with the Chiefs completing 77.4% of their passes, and the Redskins 68.0%.  But a lot of that is due to dink and dunk, which is a good way to move the ball down the field, but you won't see type of explosive plays in this one that would normally kill an under.

Washington is a perfect 10-0 UNDER in its last 10 Monday Night football road games.  Kansas City is 8-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 6-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday night.

20* Raiders/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos were in a tough spot last week.  They were traveling on the road for the first time after coming off a huge 42-17 win over the Cowboys, and with an even bigger game against the Raiders on deck.  It's forgivable that they lost out East to the Buffalo Bills, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.

According to this 2.5-point spread, the betting public is down on the Broncos all of a sudden.  And they're quick to forgive the Raiders for their 10-27 loss at Washington.  But that was easily the worst performance of the week from any team.  The Raiders managed just 118 total yards and committed three turnovers against a very shaky Washington defense.  They were outgained by a whopping 344 yards in the loss!

Denver lost 16-26 at Buffalo, but that was a misleading final.  The Broncos actually outgained the Bills by 94 yards.  And on the season, the Broncos are outgaining teams by 93 yards per game.  Their offense has produced 27.3 points and 356 yards per game, while their defense may be the best in the NFL, giving up 21.3 points, 263 yards per game and 4.4 per play.  The Raiders give up 6.2 yards per play for comparison.

The Broncos beat the Raiders 24-6 as 1-point home favorites last year.  They held the Raiders to just 221 total yards.  They do have the best pass defense in the NFL, which is why they match up so well with Derek Carr and the Raiders.  The Broncos have won four of their last five home meetings with the Raiders overall.

Trevor Siemian is better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 63% of his passes for 709 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions while averaging 7.1 per attempt.  The Denver rushing attack is working well behind the two-headed monster of C.J. Anderson (235 yards, 4.4/carry) and Jamaal Charles (142 yards, 4.1/carry).  And the Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders form one of the more underrated WR duos in the NFL.

The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games following a loss.  The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Broncos Sunday.

15* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +7

I have cashed in the 49ers as a premium pick each of the last two weeks.  They covered as 14-point road dogs in a 12-9 loss at Seattle, and snuck in the cover as 3-point dogs in a 39-41 loss to the Rams last week.  I'm on them again this week because I think they are better than oddsmakers and the betting public give them credit for.

I'm also on them because of the tremendous scheduling advantage.  The 49ers played last Thursday, giving them a mini-bye week.  Teams coming off Thursday games are 4-0 ATS this season, and I cashed in both the Bengals and Texans in this same spot last week.

Making the spot even better for the 49ers is the fact that the Cardinals are working on a short week after losing 17-28 at home to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  The Cardinals are broken right now without David Johnson, and it's clear that Carson Palmer needs to retire.  There's no way Arizona should be laying 7 points here.

After playing two very great defenses in the Panthers and Seahawks the first two weeks, the 49ers finally got on track offensively against another good defense in the Rams last week.  They racked up 421 yards and 39 points against the Rams.  Brian Hoyer threw for 332 yards, while Carlos Hyde rushed for 84 yards and two scores.  Pierre Garcon showed why he was their prized offseason acquisition, catching 7 balls for 142 yards in the loss.

The Cardinals have obviously been terrible offensively, but their defense has surprisingly taken a step back this year.  They are giving up 25.3 points per game on the season.  I think Kyle Shanahan, one of the best offensive minds in the game, will utilize this extra prep time to take advantages of the holes that have been showing up in this Arizona defense.

San Francisco only lost 20-23 at Arizona last year.  That was a bad 49ers team, much worse than the 2017 version.  And the Cardinals were much better last year than they are this season.  I'm not so sure that there's much difference in these teams talent-wise right now, which is why the 49ers shouldn't be catching a touchdown.

Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NFC West opponents.  The Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Arizona.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Rams +7.5

This is a great spot to back the Los Angeles Rams.  The Rams are coming off a Thursday game, getting a mini-bye week.  The Dallas Cowboys played on Monday Night Football, making this short week for them.  It's a huge scheduling spot advantage for the Rams, and I look for them to capitalize Sunday.

After all, teams coming off a Thursday game are 4-0 ATS this season.  I had the two last week in the Bengals and Texans as premium picks, and both cashed with ease.  Not to mention, the Cowboys are 0-8 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a Monday Night game.

Plus, the Rams are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  They are off to a 2-1 start with a 46-9 home win over Indianapolis, and a 41-39 road win at San Francisco.  I can forgive their 20-27 loss to the Redskins considering what the Redskins did to the Raiders last week, outgaining them by 344 yards in a 27-10 victory.

Sean McVay is doing big things with the Rams.  He was the former offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins, and he is starting to help Jared Goff get to the next level.  The Rams are averaging 35.7 points, 374 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play on offense.  Goff is completing 70.4 percent of his pases for 817 yards with five touchdowns and one interception while averaging a whopping 10.1 yards per attempt.  Todd Gurley has already found the end zone six times in three games, and Sammy Watkins is averaging 14.9 yards per catch with two scores.

The Cowboys were fortunate to win their game against the lowly Cardinals last week.  Dak Prescott made some big plays, and the Cardinals' special teams kept giving them short fields.  The Cardinals had a TD called back by a penalty that would have put them up 14-0, then proceeded to miss a short field goal.  It completely changed the complexion of the game.

I think the Dallas offensive line is overrated right now.  They're really not playing well up front.  They are only averaging 89 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry.  Dak Prescott has consistently been under duress.  This is a Cowboys offense that is only averaging 311 yards per game, and a big reason has been the offensive line struggles.

Defensively, the Cowboys have some key injuries in the secondary and were absolutely lit up by Trevor Siemian two weeks ago.  They are giving up 67.8% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  Look for Goff to continue making strides this week as he lights up this Dallas secondary.

The spot already couldn't be worse for the Cowboys with the short week and the Rams coming off extended rest.  But adding to that is the fact that the Cowboys play the Packers next week, and they want revenge from their loss to Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.  So this is a look-ahead spot as well.

Jason Garrett is 13-27 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  The Rams are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team - averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -1.5

I believe the Minnesota Vikings are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Falcons as the best team in the NFC.  And getting them under a field goal here at home against the Detroit Lions is an excellent value.  This line suggest Case Keenum will get the start again, as it would be a field goal or more if Sam Bradford was going to play.  But I just don't believe there's that big of a difference between Keenum and Bradford.

The Vikings have one of the best rosters in the NFL.  They are loaded everywhere, so it makes the job much easier on the quarterback.  And Keenum certainly did his part last week in a 34-17 win over Tampa Bay.  He went 25 of 33 passing for 369 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  The Vikings racked up 494 yards as a team, so clearly they are fine without Bradford.

The Detroit Lions are getting way too much respect from the books due to their 2-1 start.  But they trailed Arizona 17-15 in the 4th quarter in Week 1 before David Johnson got hurt, and the Cardinals have been awful since.  They beat a Giants team that is now 0-3 and had offensive line injury problems at the time they played them.

Sure, the Lions only lost 26-30 to the Falcons last week at home, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  The Falcons outgained them 428 to 324 and lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a pick-6 by the Lions, yet Detroit still couldn't beat them.  And it's going to be tough for them to recover mentally after having a potential game-winning touchdown called back by a review, requiring a 10-second runoff to end the game.

The Vikings started fast last year and they are starting fast this year.  But they were bad in the second half due to injuries throughout the roster.  And they played the Lions twice in November last year during their bad stretch, losing 16-22 at home and 16-13 on the road.  You can bet the Vikings are going to want to exact some revenge here on their division rivals, and they are healthy basically everywhere but the QB position this time around.

The Vikings have gone 19-4 straight up in their last 23 home meetings with the Lions.  Matthew Stafford is 5-47 in his career against teams with a winning record.  The Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Minnesota is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 home games overall.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

25* NFL Overseas GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2

The New Orleans Saints have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to this point.  They have been underdogs in all three games at Minnesota, versus New England and at Carolina, so they've done a good job of coming away with a 1-2 record.  Their 34-13 domination of Carolina was particularly impressive because the defense stepped up, limiting the Panthers to just 288 total yards and forcing three turnovers.

Now the Saints get a break here against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  The Miami Dolphins should be 0-2, but San Diego's kicker missed on the final play of the game, so they escaped with a 19-17 victory.  And the Chargers clearly aren't very good.  Then last week the Dolphins would have been shut out by arguably the worst team in the league in the Jets if Adam Gase hadn't called a timeout with six seconds left.  They scored a TD on the final play, avoiding the shutout in an embarrassing 6-20 loss as 5.5-point favorites.

The Saints had some key injuries and suspensions that they had to deal with through the first three games.  But one of Drew Brees' favorite targets in Willie Sneed returns from his 3-game suspension, and now tackles Terron Armstead and Zach Strief are likely to return from injury this week.  Getting healthy is going to make the Saints a very dangerous team moving forward.

The Dolphins are in another tough spot here.  They have done way too much traveling here in a short amount of time.  They stayed out in California for a week ahead of their game against the Chargers, then flew back to Miami to practice before flying all the way up to New York.  Now they have to head back down to Miami, and head overseas to London.  You can bet these players have to be sick of traveling by now, and it certainly has set them behind in the preparation department.

It's clear that Jay Cutler should have stuck with his decision to call games from a booth.  The Dolphins' offense is averaging just 12.5 points, 280 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play against opponents that are allowing 23.2 points, 335 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  And their defense hasn't been much better, surrendering 6.4 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.3 yards per play.

The Saints are 8-1 ATS off a division game over the last three seasons.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game over the past three seasons.  Miami is 15-34 ATS in its last 49 games off a two-game road trip.  New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 October games.  The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Alabama SEC West ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +28

Calling out Alabama clearly wasn't a wise move by one of Vanderbilt's players.  The Crimson Tide mopped the floor with the Commodores 59-0 last week.  But now the betting public is back to looking at Alabama like it can't be beat, and quick to forget that they did not look all that good in their first three games of the season.  That's evident by this massive 28-point spread this week.

Florida State gave away the game by committing three turnovers in a 24-7 loss that was much closer than the final score showed.  Alabama only won 41-10 as 43-point home favorites over Fresno State, and 41-23 as 31-point home favorites over Colorado State.  If those two teams can hang around against Alabama, then Ole Miss certainly can.

That's especially the case considering Ole Miss is coming off a bye and will be the more prepared team.  The Rebels have opened 2-1 with their only loss coming 16-27 at Cal.  Well, Cal is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Golden Bears beat UNC on the road, and were tied with USC in the fourth quarter last week, losing 20-30 despite committing six turnovers in that contest.  They probably should have beaten USC.

No team has played Alabama tougher than Ole Miss over the past few seasons.  Ole Miss won outright 23-17 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2014, 43-37 as 9-point road dogs in 2015, and only lost 43-48 as 10-point home dogs last year.  It's not a fluke how close these games have been, either.

Alabama has struggled against up-tempo, spread teams that run a lot of plays.  Deshaun Watson of Clemson, Nick Marshall of Auburn, and both Bo Wallace and Chad Kelly of Ole Miss have run those types of offenses against them.  And Ole Miss has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Shea Patterson.

Patterson is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,281 yards with 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt this season.  And Ole Miss may have more talent at the receiver position than they have in any of the past years against Alabama.  They already have five players with 11 or more receptions on the season.

Ole Miss is averaging 7.5 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 6.7 yards per play.  They are giving up 5.1 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  Their defense isn't as good as it has been in year's past, but it's still an above-average unit and good enough to hang around with Alabama for four quarters.

When a high-scoring affair is expected, Alabama doesn't fare too well.  The Crimson Tide are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when the total is between 56.5 and 63.  Alabama is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 75 or fewer passing yards last game.  The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, consistently overvalued laying too many points at home.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Tuscaloosa.  Roll with Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on OVER 81

This play is about as square as it gets and completely goes against what I believe in most of the time.  Everyone is going to be on the OVER in this game, which would make me normally want to back the under.  But the fact of the matter is that square wins sometimes, and I simply do not believe the oddsmakers have set this total high enough, even at 81 points!

Nothing has really changed about these two programs this year.  They are both up-tempo, passing teams that put up a lot of points.  Oklahoma State is scoring 48.2 points per game, averaging 580 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play.  Texas Tech is scoring 45.0 yards per game, averaging 587 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.  And neither team is too concerned with playing defense, especially Texas Tech.

So since nothing has changed with these teams, it makes their recent head-to-head history very important.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and the Cowboys and Red Raiders have combined for 80 or more points in all five meetings.  They have averaged 91.6 combined points per game in those five meetings, which is roughly 12 points more than this total.  They went off for 123 combined points in their last meeting at Texas Tech in 2015.

The OVER is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 conference games.  The OVER is 14-5 in Red Raiders last 19 home games.  The OVER is 12-3 in Red Raiders last 15 vs. a team wtih a winning record.  Kliff Kingsbury is 11-1 OVER versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry as the coach of Texas Tech.  Kingsburgy is 9-0 vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as the coach of the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech is 9-1 to the OVER off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -3.5

When this game was originally scheduled for September 9th, I had UCF picked as -2.5 favorites over Memphis early in the week.  That line jumped to 3.5 and 4 in some places by the day the game was supposed to be played.  I was upset because I had a great number early in the week.  Well, the line has come out basically the same for the rescheduled contest here, and I'm back on the Knights in a big way.

The UCF Knights are a team on the rise.  After winning 10, 12 and 9 games from 2012-'14, they bottomed out at 0-12 in 2015.  Scott Frost then stepped into a good situation with 17 starters back last year and got the Knights to a bowl game.  Now I believe UCF is one of the better teams in the AAC in 2017.

They have 13 starters back this year, including nine on an offense that is loaded.  That offense has shined in a 2-0 start with a 61-17 win over Florida International as 17.5-point favorites, and a 38-10 win at Maryland as 4.5-point dogs.  In those two games alone, the Knights covered the spread by a combined 59 points.  The markets just haven't caught up to how good this team really is.

McKenzie Milton got his feet wet as a freshman last year, and should be primed for a big sophomore season as he takes a step forward here.  He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 538 yards with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio through two games, while also rushing for 98 yards and averaging 10.9 per carry.  This offense is hitting on all cylinders.

There's no question that UCF has the better defense in this matchup.  They gave up just 24.6 points and 370 yards per game last year.  They have held FIU and Maryland to just 13.5 points, 266 yards per game and 4.4 per play, holding them to 15.0 points, 115 yards per game and 1.8 per play less than their season averages.

Memphis clearly has a good offense with Riley Ferguson at quarterback.  But they are fortunate to be 3-0 right now, and they have played three poor defenses at home in LA Monroe, UCLA and Southern Illinois.  They only won by 8 against LA Monroe as 28-point favorites, beat UCLA by 3 as 3.5-point dogs in a bad spot for the Bruins with the 9:00 AM local start time, and only beat Southern Illinois by 13 as 30-point favorites.  Now the Tigers have to go on the road for the first time.

Memphis' defense gave up 28.8 points and 455 yards per game last year.  This defense isn't any better in 2017.  They are giving up 35.0 points, 484 yards per game and 5.5 per play already this season.  That's very poor when you consider they've faced two poor offensive teams in LA-Monroe and Southern Illinois, giving up a combined 60 points to those two teams.

UCF has owned Memphis through the years, going 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings since 2005 while winning eight of the nine games by 7 points or more.  Plays on a home team (UCF) - after two straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1992.

Memphis is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 after scoring 42 points or more in its previous game.    The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings.  The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State -3.5

Two of the most misleading box scores last week were Michigan State/Notre Dame and Penn State/Iowa.  And now since Michigan State was blown out by Notre Dame, while Iowa nearly upset Penn State, the public perception of these two teams is wrong.  The Spartans are better than their score showed, while the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good as their score.

Michigan State lost 18-38 to Notre Dame despite outgaining the Fighting Irish 496 to 355, or by 141 total yards.  The difference in that game was that they lost the turnover battle 3-0.  Meanwhile, Iowa only lost 19-21 to Penn State despite getting outgained 273 to 579, or by 306 total yards.  In fact, Saquon Barkley (305 scrimmage yards) outgained Iowa on his own!

It's clear that Michigan State is vastly improved this season and better than most thought they would be after a disastrous 3-9 campaign last year.  The numbers have shown that, too.  They are averaging 473 yards per game and 6.0 per play on offense, and giving up only 254 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 219 yards per game and 1.7 per play.

Conversely, Iowa is not as good as their 3-1 record.  They are actually getting outgained by 29 yards per game this season.  Their win over Wyoming doesn't look nearly as good now as the Cowboys have struggled.  They nearly lost to North Texas at home, and they were lucky to escape with a 44-41 (OT) win at Iowa State as they erased a 10-point fourth quarter deficit.

The Spartans clearly have the better quarterback here in Brian Lewerke, who is completing 62.9 percent of his passes for 751 yards with six touchdowns against two interceptions, while also rushing for 206 yards and two scores while averaging 7.9 per carry.  The Spartans now have a QB after struggling at the position last year.

It's much easier to recover from a blowout loss for Michigan State.  They know what they did wrong with turnovers, and they know they're better than they played.  I question Iowa's mental state after losing on the final play of the game to Penn State.  They nearly pulled off the miracle despite getting dominated statistically, and after such a big game on the National TV stage, I can't see them getting back up off the mat in time to match Michigan State's intensity here Saturday.

Dantonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their last game as the coach of the Spartans.  Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +14.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 and posted a 7-6 record last year.  They returned 16 starters from that team and are clearly one of the best teams in the MAC.  They have opened 2-1 this season with their only loss to overtime against Ohio, one of the favorites to win the MAC.

Eastern Michigan went on the road and already beat a Power 5 opponent in Rutgers from the Big Ten.  They won that game 16-13 as 6-point dogs.  And that's a Rutgers team that has played both Washington and Nebraska tough this season, so it was a really good win.  Now the Eagles are catching over two touchdowns against another mediocre Power 5 team in Kentucky.

But this play is really all about the spot.  Kentucky opened 3-0 and felt like this was the year they were going to end the 30-game losing streak to Florida.  Instead, the same usual thing happened as they gave up the lead in the final seconds and lost 27-28.  Off such a deflating loss, I don't think the Wildcats will get back up off the mat in time to put Eastern Michigan away by more than two touchdowns this week.

And even though Kentucky is 3-1, all three wins came by 11 points or less against mediocre opponents in Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky and South Carolina.  They only beat Eastern Kentucky 27-16 as 33-point home favorites.  It's clear with that result that a much better team like Eastern Michigan is capable of staying within two touchdowns here.

Plays against a home team (KENTUCKY) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 86-42 (67.2%) ATS since 1992.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Kentucky is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet Eastern Michigan Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State -7.5

You're never going to get the Florida State Seminoles at a better value than you are now after their 0-2 start to the season.  But both losses are forgivable.  They lost to the best team in the country in Alabama and played them tough.  Then they had a three-week layoff and lost to an upstart NC State team that is better than they get credit for.

This is the perfect storm too because Wake Forest couldn't possibly be more overvalued right now after their 4-0 start.  Look who they've beaten though.  Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah State and Appalachian State.  And they were extremely fortunate to beat App State 20-19 as 5.5-point favorites last week.  They were outgained 344 to 494 in that game, or by 150 total yards.

I think this is a 'circle the wagons' game for Florida State.  Jimbo Fisher will wipe the slate clean and let his team know that a new season starts this week.  It was a tough spot with the three-week layoff and freshman QB James Blackmon making his first start.  But Blackmon played well with 278 passing yards and a touchdown without an interception.  And this FSU defense is still loaded with nine returning starters and a boat load of talent.

Speaking of talent, there is a huge talent discrepancy in this game, a much bigger one than this 7.5-point spread would indicate. And that has shown in recent meetings between these teams.  Florida State is 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning by a whopping 31.4 points per game on average.

Jimbo Fisher is 10-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Florida State.  The Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Florida State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -9.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets went 9-4 last season.  Their numbers showed that they weren't as good as their record.  But they brought back a whopping 16 starters this season, and now their numbers show that they should be 3-0 and are clearly improved.

Georgia Tech lost its opener 41-42 to Tennessee on a neutral field in overtime despite outgaining the Vols by 286 yards.  Then they beat Jacksonville State five days later 37-10 as 14-point favorites.  They had two weeks off and then beat Pitt 35-17 while outgaining the Panthers by 249 yards.  They are averaging 487 yards per game on offense and giving up only 264 yards on defense this season.

North Carolina was a team I pegged to take a big step back this year.  They lost Mitch Trubisky to the NFL, their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers.  And that has proven to be the case as UNC is off to a 1-3 start this season despite playing three home games.  They lost all three to Cal, Louisville and Duke.  Their only win came on the road against a terrible Old Dominion team.

UNC clearly has a leaky defense this year that is giving up 33.0 points, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They gave up 312 rushing yards to Louisville and 186 to Duke.  Now they're up against Georgia Tech's triple-option attack that is averaging 394 yards per game and 5.8 per carry on the ground.

And the Tar Heels are a tired football team since they haven't had a bye yet, while the Yellow Jackets are the fresher squad after having a bye two weeks ago thanks to the canceling of the UCF game.  And you can bet Georgia Tech has had this game circled.  It wants revenge on a UNC team that it has lost to three straight meetings, including an embarrassing 20-48 road loss last year.  And the Yellow Jackets will be focused knowing that they have a bye next week, so they will be putting all their chips on the table this week.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UNC, which has 18 players listed on the injury report.  Nine are out for the season and nine are questionable as of this write-up.  They're the team that could use a bye, but they won't be betting one until November 4th, so we'll likely continue to fade away moving forward.

The Yellow Jackets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  This team is still way undervalued in the markets right now, even as 9.5-point favorites here in a game they should win comfortably by double-digits.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* USC/Washington State ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 65

This is a huge game between USC and Washington State in Pac-12 action Friday.  The betting public will be expecting offensive fireworks, but I'm anticipating a totally different game.  Points will be much tougher to come by than this 65-point total would indicate.

Washington State has improved defensively in a big way over the last couple years.  They are giving up just 18.5 points, 262 yards per game and 4.4 per play this season.  That even includes the 44 points they gave up to Boise State in Week 2 in triple-overtime, but that game was tied 31-31 at the end of regulation, and there were three non-offensive touchdowns that contributed to that 62-point total.

Sticking with that Boise game, Washington State's offense only scored 17 points in regulation.  They only managed 31 against Montana State, then scored 52 and 45 against two terrible defenses in Oregon State and Nevada, respectively.  It won't come nearly as easy for their offense this week against the best opponent they've faced in USC.

The Trojans are really playing well defensively this season, which is the biggest reason for their 4-0 start.  They are giving up just 24.7 points, 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 35.5 points, 424 yards per game and 5.9 per play this season.  They are holding their opponents to 10.8 points, 54 yards and 0.7 per play less than their season averages.

Sam Darnold isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard for the Trojans, throwing nine touchdowns against seven interceptions.  They only managed 27 points against Texas and 30 against Cal in their last two games, two below average defensive teams.  Darnold has already thrown seven interceptions.  He is struggling behind an inexperienced offensive line that lost three starters in the offseason. Not to mention, leading returning rusher and receiver Ronald Jones (thigh) and Deontay Burnett (shoulder) are both banged up right now.

In the last 20 meetings in this series, USC and Washington State haven't combined for more than 69 points once.  They have averaged only 52 combined points per game in those 20 meetings, which is 13 points less than this posted total of 65.  They have combined for more than 65 points only three times.

USC is 6-0 to the UNDER as a road favorite over the last three seasons.  Washington State is 6-0 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Trojans last 11 conference games.  The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Cougars last 21 home games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Bears/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -6.5

I think last week's results are keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Bears upset the Steelers 23-17 in overtime, while the Packers needed overtime to beat the Bengals 27-24.  Chicago won outright as 7-point dogs, while Green Bay was fortunate to win the game as 7-point favorites.  If not for those results, the Packers would be closer to 10-point favorites.

I faded the Packers last week due to injury concerns along their offensive line, and the fact that the Bengals were coming off a Thursday game and playing for their season.  But I think this is a good spot to back the home team.  It's tough to travel on a short week for the Bears, and they just aren't as good as the Bengals in my opinion.

We saw what happened to the Bears when they went on the road for their only game this year, losing 7-29 to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Mike Glennon played a terrible game and the Bears committed four turnovers as a team.  I don't think Glennon can match Rodgers score for scores.

The Bears had control of the game against the Steelers so they were able to play to their strength, which is their running game.  In fact, Mike Glennon went 15-of-22 passing for just 101 yards in the win.  He only compleleted one pass to a wide receiver as 12 of his completions came to running backs.  That vanilla offense isn't going to work against Green Bay, and they're going to be toast once they fall behind.  They don't have the firepower to catch up.

The Packers are expected to get back some key parts this week in WR Randall Cobb, LB Nick Perry and DT Mike Daniels this week.  They still have their offensive line concerns, but fortunately they have a mobile quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who makes his biggest plays when getting outside the pocket.  He relishes this challenge.

Death, taxes and the Packers owning the Bears are the only certainties in life.  Green Bay has won 12 of its last 14 meetings with Chicago.  The Packers have covered in 10 of the last 13 meetings as well.  They won 26-10 at home last year as 7-point favorites, outgaining the Bears by 217 yards in the process.

Mike McCarthy is 47-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Packers.  He is 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Green Bay.  Chicago is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Green Bay is 45-22 ATS in its last 67 vs. NFC North opponents.  Take the Packers Thursday.

20* Texas/Iowa State ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa State +6.5

This is a standalone Thursday night game that almost always favors the home team.  That is certainly the case here for the Iowa State Cyclones, who have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country.  They have put a lot of money into updating Jack Trice Stadium, and it will be a sell-out crowd here Thursday night.

The Cyclones are clearly one of the more improved teams in the country this season.  Matt Campbell has things heading in the right direction in Ames in his second season.  This is a team that really should be 3-0 because they blew a fourth quarter lead against Iowa, eventually losing in overtime.  That's and Iowa team that lost on the final play of the game to No. 4 Penn State last week.

The strength of the Cyclones is an offense that has put up 41.3 points and 460 yards per game thus far.  Jacob Park has been lighting it up, completing 66.7% of his passes for 935 yards and eight touchdowns against only two interceptions.  He is averaging 312 passing yards per game.  He has a a bevy of weapons led by Hakeem Butler (15 receptions, 234 yards, 3 TD) and Allen Lazard (19, 178, 3 TD).  David Montgomery will fight for every yard he gets, rushing for 322 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.8 per carry.

What Campbell has done at Iowa State that past coaches haven't been able to do is build the offensive and defensive lines.  The O-Line is vastly improved this season, and D-Line too.  That has been evident defensively as the Cyclones are only giving up 107 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They gave up 218 rushing yards per game last season to compare.

Texas is a team that will get better as the season goes on as well under Tom Herman, but they are clearly behind the eight ball this early in the season.  They lost to Maryland at home, beat San Jose State, then hung tough at USC.  I had Texas in that game as it was a clear letdown spot for USC after a big win over Stanford the previous week.  And Texas gave up 397 passing yards in that game, so Park will find plenty of success against them through the air.

Texas' offense isn't hitting on all cyclinders by any means, either.  They only rushed for 98 yards on 31 carries against Maryland, and 68 yards on 35 carries against USC.  The Longhorns are only completing 58.2% of their passes thus far as well.  They only completed 21 of 40 passes and committed four turnovers against USC.

The home team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Iowa State won 24-0 as 3.5-point home dogs in 2015, and got jobbed by the refs in a 30-31 home loss at 7-point dogs in 2013.  I think these are two pretty evenly-matched teams at this point in the season, so getting 6.5 points with the home team on a standalone Thursday game is an excellent value.

Iowa State has only committed two turnovers in three games.  The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.  Texas is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games versus teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47

There are a lot of factors that point to a low-scoring game Monday night between the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals.  I think this 47-point total is too high here, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER.

The Cardinals have not been sharp on offense since losing David Johnson.  They only managed 13 points in regulation against a terrible Colts' defense last week.  Carson Palmer is a shell of his former self and can't carry a team like he used to.  Plus three of his top targers in WR JJ Nelson, WR John Brown and TE Jermaine Gresham are all banged up and questionable to play Monday.

The Cowboys did not look good defensively against the Broncos last week.  However, they should have much more success on that side of the ball against this limited Arizona offense.  We saw the Cowboys hold the Giants to just 3 points in Week 1, so I don't think they are broken on that side of the ball just yet.  And they are expected to get starting CB Orlando Scandrick back this week after he missed last week.

I expect the Cowboys to get back to running the football on offense.  They got away from their game plan last week and Dak Prescott had to throw a whopping 50 passes against the Broncos last week because they were trailing the whole game.  They only had 14 rush attempts.  They'll try to establish Zeke Elliott early and often, and that will help to chew up clock, extend drives and keep their vulnerable defense off the field.

Arizona does still have one of the elite defenses in the NFL.  The Cardinals finished No. 2 in the league in total defense last season.  They are great at all three levels with tremendous pass rushers, speedy linebackers and arguably the best secondary in the game.  They held the Colts to just 266 total yards last week and 13 points.  They gave up 35 points to the Lions in Week 1, but that was mostly due to the offense committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a TD.

Dallas is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Arizona is 6-0 UNDER in home games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  The UNDER is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Cardinals last six Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* Bengals/Packers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +9

The Cincinnati Bengals are just the type of 'buy low' team that I like to back.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them after their 0-2 start.  They haven't score a touchdown yet, one of only two teams (49ers) to accomplish that feat through two weeks.  And the 49ers covered against the Rams on Thursday and scored 39 points.

The Bengals are in a good spot to correct their mistakes.  They are coming off a mini-bye week after playing last Thursday, which was the perfect time to fire their offensive coordinator.  It gives them extra time to get used to Bill Lazor's offense as he steps into the position after being the QB coach.  And this was a banged up team that has had extra time to get healthy as well.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday game, and we saw both the Pats and Chiefs cover in this situation last week.

The Bengals just have too much talent on offense to be held in check for much longer.   They have AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Tyler Boyd and a three-headed monster at RB led by talented rookie Joe Mixon, who should see an increased role with Lazor calling the shots.  Playing two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Ravens and Texans has certainly been a big reason for their offensive struggles.  I strongly believe the Bengals will live up to their potential on this side of the ball this week.

The Packers have been one of the biggest public teams for years.  Bettors are just going to back them blindly because they are at home.  But remember, this is a Packers team that started 4-6 last year and needed a big run just to make the playoffs.  Aaron Rodgers is making a habit of working magic late in seasons, but it's also been a trend that this team gets off to slow starts and is a money burner early in the year.

That's going to be the case again in 2017 simply because the Packers have huge injury concerns right now that they can't just overcome and win games by margins.  Their best defensive player in DT Mike Daniels left the Atlanta game last week and is questionable.  LB Nick Perry and LB Ahmad Brooks are both questionable.  And that's just on defense.

The problems are much bigger on offense.  The Packers played without their two starting tackles along the offensive line last week and both are questionable to return this week.  Both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb were knocked out of the game last week due to injury and are questionable to play.  This is simply a mash unit right now that isn't capable of covering a 9-point spread against a hungry Bengals team coming off a mini-bye week.

Plays against home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-5 (86.8%) ATS since 1983.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +13.5

Yes, I'm fading the Patriots again this week.  I had the Chiefs in Week 1 against them which was an easy winner. But I lost with the Saints last week.  However, there were a few takeaways from that Saints game that has me quick to fade the Patriots again.

New England jumped out to a 30-13 halftime lead. But they only scored 6 points in the 2nd half.  And a lot of that had to do with the injuries suffered on offense throughout the game  The Patriots came into the game without both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola.

Then Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and Philip Dorsett all got hurt.  Hogan is probable to play this week, while Gronk and Dorsett are both questionable.  I know the Patriots find ways to score no matter what, but they are seriously limited right now on offense.  So asking them to beat the Texans by two touchdowns here is asking too much.

I like what I saw from the Texans last week.  They led the NFL in total defense last year and have a dominant unit again.  They held the Bengals to just 3 field goals.

Offensively, the switch to Deshaun Watson at QB is huge for this team I think.  His athletic ability helps mask some of the issues on the offensive line.  That was evident with his 49-yard TD run that basically won the game for the Texans.  He didn't turn the ball over, and they rushed for 168 yards as a team.  I'd like to see Watson use his legs more because he's a serious weapon.

The Texans should have WR Bruce Ellington and TE Ryan Griffin back this week from concussions.  CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Will Fuller and TE Stephen Andersen all returned to practice this week after missing last week.  So Watson will have more weapons to work with and should find plenty of success against this soft Patriots defense.

The Patriots allowed 31 PPG in the preseason.  Now they are giving up 31 PPG and 483 YPG in the regular season through two games.  Their most important defensive player, LB Dont'a Hightower, missed last week with an injury and is questionable to return this week.

It's a huge advantage for the Texans getting that 3 extra days of rest after playing last Thursday.  I always like backing teams coming off a Thursday night game and getting that mini-bye, which has helped the Texans get heatlhy.  Both the Patriots and Chiefs covered last week in this same situation.  Houston is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games.  Take the Texans Sunday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6

The New Orleans Saints are 0-2 right now because of the difficult schedule they have faced.  They were 3-point road dogs at Minnesota and lost 19-29, and then they were 6.5-point home dogs against a hungry Patriots team and lost 36-20.  Sure, they could have been more competitive, but they are 0-2 just like they're supposed to be.  And they're being undervalued now because of it.

Carolina would be 0-2 against the same schedule.  Instead, the Panthers are 2-0 thanks to playing the 49ers and Bills.  They were 4.5-point favorites at San Francisco and 6.5-point home favorites over the Bills.  But since they're 2-0 they are being overvalued now.  This is clearly a great 'buy low, sell high' situation as we'll buy low on the Saints and sell high on the Panthers.

The Saints will be extremely motivated to avoid an 0-3 start, while the Panthers could fall flat after their 2-0 start.  And the Panthers have all kinds of issues right now that leaves me wondering how they can possibly be 6-point favorites here.  Their offense has been terrible, and they have some serious injury concerns right now.

Cam Newton was injured against the Bills and didn't look right.  He will play this week, but he won't be 100%.  They lost his favorite weapon in TE Greg Olsen to a broken foot, and now he's out for the next 6-8 weeks.  Plus, T Matt Kalil (neck) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee) are both questionable this week with injuries.

This was a Carolina offense that was struggling even before all these injuries.  They are scoring just 16.0 points per game, averaging 271 yards per game, and just 4.4 yards per play.  Now I don't know what they are going to be able to do with Olsen out and a hobbled Newton and Benjamin.  Their only healthy weapon is Christian McCaffrey, and they're limiting his touches this season to try and keep him healthy and fresh.

Taking a look at this head-to-head series, this is a rivalry that always goes down to the wire.  In fact, all four meetings over the last three seasons have been decided by 5 points or less, including three by exactly a field goal.  And that's where I think this line should be, Carolina -3, not Carolina -6.  And three points of value in the NFL is huge.

The Saints have been moving the ball fine, but they've had to settle for too many field goals.  The Panthers have faced two awful passing teams in Buffalo and San Francisco, making their defense look better than it is.  The Panthers have a good front seven, but their secondary is their weakness as it has been since they lost Josh Norman.  Drew Brees is just the guy to exploit that weakness this week.  New Orleans has averaged 30.3 points per game in its last four meetings with Carolina.

Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Notre Dame/Michigan State FOX Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +4

I just believe that that the Michigan State Spartans were massively underrated heading into 2017 after their shocking 3-9 disaster last season.  Mark Dantonio does his best work with his back against the wall, and he'll have the Spartans exceeding expectations now this year.

The Spartans got off to a great start in Week 1 with a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green as 17-point favorites.  They even lost the turnover battle three to one and still won by 25, outgaining the Falcons 465 to 212 in the process.  It was a dominant effort and one that has me excited about this team moving forward.

I backed the Spartans again in their Week 2 victory over Western Michigan, 28-14 as 7-point home favorites.  They absolutely dominated that game more than the final score showed.  They outgained the Broncos 457 to 195 for the game, or by 262 total yards.  And that's a Western Michigan team that took USC down to the wire on the road in Week 1.

It looks like the Spartans are back to playing the elite defense we have become accustomed to rather than the soft unit we saw last year.  The Spartans are only giving up 12.0 points per game and 203 yards per game as well as 3.4 yards per play.  And the Spartans are back to running the ball with authority, averaging 255 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.

Notre Dame is also a team I was high on coming into the season, but I think they are overvalued here as road favorites. The Fighting Irish have thumped two poor teams in Temple and Boston College, and they lost their only true test at home against Georgia 20-21 as 5.5-point favorites.  I think Michigan State is in a similar class to Georgia.

Michigan State was not good last year, yet they still went on the road and beat Notre Dame 36-28 as 7.5-point underdogs.  They racked up 501 total yards on that Notre Dame defense.  Now the Spartans have had two full weeks to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is a huge advantage coming in.

Notre Dame is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  Michigan State is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 225 or fewer yards/game in its previous two games.  The Fighting Irish are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* Penn State/Iowa ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Iowa +13

For starters, Kinnick Stadium is an extremely tough place to play, especially on a Saturday night.  We saw then-No. 2 Michigan watch its playoff hopes dwindle with a 13-14 loss in Iowa City last year as 21-point favorites.  In fact, Iowa is a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home games vs. Top 5 teams dating back to 2009.

Many think this is going to be an easy game for No. 4 Penn State after crushing Iowa 41-14 in Happy Valley last year.  But that just has the revenge angle working in our favor here as these Hawkeye players have not forgotten.  Look for them to bring their "A" effort here Saturday night on ABC.

Penn State is way overvalued right now after going 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall dating back to last season.  It's time to 'sell high' on them now that you're having to pay a premium to back them.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season, but they've played three cupcakes at home in Akron, Pitt and Georgia State.

Akron lost 41-14 at home to Iowa State, which Iowa beat on the road two weeks ago.  Penn State was actually outgained by Pitt 30 yards in their 33-14 victory, a game that was clearly much closer than the final score would indicate.  And that's a Pitt team that lost 21-59 at home to Oklahoma State last week, and needed overtime to beat Youngstown State at home in Week 1.

I think most are down on Iowa after they struggled with North Texas last week.  But that was clearly a flat spot after beating rival Iowa State in overtime the week before, and having Penn State on deck the next week.  And the Hawkeyes still won 31-14 and kneeled on the 2-yard line in the closing seconds, otherwise they would have covered the 19.5-point spread.  They also had a TD called back by a taunting penalty and didn't wind up scoring on that possession.

Iowa usually goes under the radar every year because they play a boring brand of football.  They win with defense and a running game.  But I've been impressed with QB Nathan Stanley through three games.  He threw five touchdown passes against Iowa State and it could have been more had he not overthrown a couple guys deep.  This Iowa offense is more potent than it has been in the past.  And the Hawkeyes will have the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines in this game, which always gives them a chance.

Kirk Ferentz is 24-4 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry as the coach of Iowa.  Penn State is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 6 points or less.  Iowa is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  Bet Iowa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on SMU -5.5

The SMU Mustangs are a team I was very high on coming into the season.  They are coming off a 5-7 season and were much more competitive in 2016.  They brought back 14 starters in 2017 and entered Year 3 under Chad Morris, the former Clemson offensive coordinator who also coached 16 seasons of high school football in Texas.  Morris has this program headed in the right direction.

SMU has certainly looked improved thus far, going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS.  They won 58-14 over Stephen F. Austin as 30-point favorites, 54-32 as 11.5-point favorites over North Texas, and lost 36-56 at TCU as 22-point dogs, giving the Horned Frogs from the Big 12 all they could handle.  This was a 7-point game entering the fourth quarter last week.

Morris knows how to coach up an offense, and he has the Mustangs galloping full speed ahead this season.  They are averaging 49.3 points, 474 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play thus far against teams that give up 35.1 points, 376 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  Their defense has at least been average this season.

Arkansas State has been the king of the Sun Belt over the last few seasons.  But the Red Wolves haven't done that well in non-conference action over the same time frame.  And I think they're getting too much respect for playing Nebraska close in a 36-43 loss in Week 1.  That's the same Nebraska team that was upset at home by Northern Illinois last week.

This is the least-experienced team that the Red Wolves have had since 2014.  That year they returned 10 starters and went just 7-6, which was their worst record since 2010.  Well, they only returned 10 starters this year.  They lost six of their top nine tacklers on defense and aren't very good on that side of the ball, so look for SMU to do whatever it wants offensively.

Plays on a home team (SMU) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in two consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Mustangs are 6-0 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous game.  Take SMU Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -13.5

The Miami Hurricanes are chomping at the bit right now to hit the field.  They haven't played a game since September 2nd due to Hurricane Irma.  It's safe to say they'll be hungry, rested and ready to go when the hit the field Saturday.

The same cannot be said for Toledo, which has played each of the first three weeks and is coming off a barn-burner against Tulsa.  The Rockets won that game 54-51 at home in a back-and-forth affair, and they won't have a whole lot left in the tank to face the Hurricanes here.  I don't think they'll be able to match Miami's energy in this one.

I can't say that Toledo has been all that impressive.  The wins have come against Elon as a 44.5-point favorite, Nevada as an 11-point favorite and Tulsa as a 7-point favorite.  They only beat Nevada by 13, and that's a Nevada team that just lost at home to Idaho State 28-30 as a 32.5-point favorite.  Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State 24-59 and is basically in rebuilding mode.

I really believe Miami is a national title contender this year.  The Hurricanes return 15 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games, including a 31-14 victory over WVU in the bowl game.  They are loaded at running back and receiver, and they have eight starters back from a defense that gave up only 18.5 points per game last year.  This is one of the best defenses in the country.

Miami has feasted on Group of 5 teams in non-conference action in recent years.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in such games over the past three seasons.  They beat FAU 38-10 as 25-point home favorites last year, then crushed a good Appalachian State team 45-10 as only 3-point road favorites.  I think they make easy work of Toledo by two touchdowns or more here at home Saturday.

Mark Richt is 6-0 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of Miami.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less over the last three years.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Roll with Miami Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on UMass +28

This is an awful spot for the Tennessee Volunteers.  It's a clear sandwich spot.  They are coming off a deflating 26-20 loss at Florida in which the Gators scored on a hail mary on the final play of the game thanks to a huge breakdown in covered.  Now the Vols have an even bigger game on deck at home against Georgia next week that will likely decide whether or not they are contenders in the SEC East.  The Vols could care less about beating UMass by a margin here.

They'll be more concerned about getting healthy.  Tennessee has already lost four starters to season-ending injury.  They have six more guys who are questionable for Saturday's game.  Don't be surprise to see the Vols take a cautious approach here to try and make sure that they have all hands on deck against Georgia next week.

That's a bad Florida team that Tennessee just lost to, one that was destroyed by Michigan in their opener and one that is missing 10-plus players due to injuries and suspensions.  And Tennessee was extremely fortunate to beat Georgia Tech 42-41 in overtime in their opener.  They were actually outgained by 286 yards by the Yellow Jackets.  I just don't think this Tennessee team is very good.

UMass is the perfect 'buy low' candidate that I like to back this week.  They have started 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS.  But a closer look shows that all four of their losses have come by 10 points or less, so they've been competitive in every game.  They have only been outgained by 3 yards per game on the season despite their 0-4 record.  I backed them last week as 14.5-point dogs at Temple in a 21-29 loss.  They should have won that game outright as they outgained Temple by 71 yards.

Head coach Mark Whipple knows how to coach up an offense, and the Minutemen will score plenty of points to stay within the number against this suspect Tennessee defense.  QB Andrew Ford has been impressive, completing 64.3% of his passes with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  He has three great weapons outside who are all averaging at least 14 yards per receptions and who have at least 17 receptions each on the season in Adam Breneman, Andy Isabella and Sadiq Palmer.

I think the fact that UMass is playing an SEC opponent will help them get back up off the mat from this 0-4 start and put together a competitive performance here Saturday.  Tennessee doesn't give these non-conference opponents much respect, and that showed last year.  They needed overtime to beat Appalachian State as 20-point favorites.  They only beat Ohio by 9 as 27-point favorites as well.  This that Tennessee team was much better than this 2017 version.

Whipple is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of UMass.  The Minutemen are actually winning 35.7 to 29.2 on average in this spot.  The Minutemen are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  The Vols are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +3.5

The Arizona Wildcats have the makings of one of the most improved teams in the country from what I've seen thus far.  They have opened 2-1 with a pair of blowout victories and a tough 16-19 loss to Houston.   Holding that Houston offense to only 19 points is no small feat as this defense is clearly way improved.

The Wildcats hung 62 points on Northern Arizona and 63 on UTEP in their two blowout victories.  Brandon Dawkins has a focus this season as a junior that he hasn't had in the past.  He's on a mission to prove his naysayers wrong.  The Arizona quarterback is in charge of a Wildcats offense that is averaging 328 rushing yards per game and 6.5 per carry this season.  They are also completing 66.2% of their passes.

Utah has played three cake opponents.  The Utes only won 37-16 over North Dakota in their opener, then won a hard-fought 19-13 contest at BYU.  That's the same BYU team that lost 27-0 to LSU and 40-6 to Wisconsin, while also barely beating Portland State.  Then the Utes won 54-16 over San Jose State last week, which lost 56-0 to Texas.  The Spartans committed five turnovers to aid the Utes' cause.

Last year in their Pac-12 home opener, the Wildcats took Washington to overtime as 13-point home dogs.  That's a Washington team that ended up winning the Pac-12 and making the four-team playoff.  I think Rich Rodriquez and company want to make a statement here Friday night to let everyone know they won't be pushovers in the Pac-12 this season.

I like the fact that Arizona has had a full week to prepare after playing last Friday, while Utah played on Saturday and will be on short rest.  I also like that Arizona is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Utah in the past five years under Rodriquez.  The Wildcats have outgained the Utes in all five meetings while racking up at least 469 yards in all five games.  That's impressive when you consider Utah is considered one of the better defensive teams in the country year in and year out.  Rodriquez simply has their number.

"They run the zone read as well as anyone in the country," Kyle Whittingham said of the Wildcats. "They have a quarterback that is an exceptional runner. That is exactly what they look for in their quarterback, the ability to be a dual threat. We have struggled with them.  The games we lost, we did not do a good job defending the run. So, that is going to be job No. 1 this week like it is every week."

Whittingham is 11-27 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday games, while the Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last even meetings.  Bet Arizona Friday.

15* Rams/49ers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Francisco +3

This line indicates that the Los Angeles Rams would be favored by roughly 6 points over the San Francisco 49ers on a neutral field.  And I simply think that's too much.  This line should be either a PK or the 49ers as a small favorite because there isn't that much difference between these two teams.

The Rams are going to be favorites for the third straight week, which hasn't happened in a long time for them.  Sure, they are going to be improved this year, but they haven't played anyone yet.  They crushed the Colts, who may be the worst team in in the NFL right now.  And they lost to a Redskins team that I'm down on, both at home.  Now the Rams have to go on the road for the first time.

I was on the 49ers last week against the Seahawks, and they nearly pulled off the road upset as 14-point dogs in a 12-9 loss.  I think this team is way undervalued due to their 0-2 start.  But their other loss came to the Panthers.  The Rams would be 0-2 if they played those two teams as well.

The 49ers have a defense they can lean on.  They are giving up just 17.5 points and 299 yards per game this season.  They are also only allowing 4.3 yards per play.  The Rams gave up 385 total yards to the Redskins last week, including a ridiculous 229 rushing.  They are allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That plays right into the 49ers' hands because their strength is running the football.  Carlos Hyde is fourth in the league in rushing with 169 yards.  What is most impressive is the fact that he is averaging 7.0 yards per carry.  He should find plenty of success on the ground against the Rams here, and Brian Hoyer should be much sharper in his third start of the season, especially if his receivers stop dropping the ball.

The 49ers have owned the Rams in recent years, going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.  They swept the season series last year, winning 28-0 at home.  Plays on any team (SAN FRANCISCO) - after scoring 9 points or less in two straight games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  It's time to 'buy low' on San Francisco tonight.  Take the 49ers Thursday.

20* Temple/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida -18.5

The South Florida Bulls are one of the top Group of 5 teams along side the San Diego State Aztecs.  One of these teams will likely be playing in a big bowl game at the end of the season.  I think that team is more likely to be the Bulls.

But because South Florida got off to a slow start with lackluster wins over San Jose State and Stony Brook, I think that has them undervalued now.  That showed last week as the Bulls crushed Illinois 47-23 as 16.5-point favorites.  That game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bulls even overcame 14 first half penalties alone to put up 680 yards of total offense.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Temple is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and that is showing early as they are 0-3 ATS.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.

I then backed UMass +14.5 last week at Temple in a game the Minutmen should have won outright.  They outgained Temple by 71 yards in that contest.  And that's a UMass team that is 0-4 now.  So Temple struggled to put them away, and they have no shot of hanging with a team the class of USF.  This should be Notre Dame 2.0 as Temple gets steamrolled.

Temple won the AAC last year thanks in large part to its 46-30 win over South Florida.  The Bulls certainly have not forgotten, and they beat Temple 44-23 at home in 2015 the last time here.  And you know South Florida is going to bring the offense.  The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in an FBS-best 19 straight games now.

Temple gave up 422 rushing yards to Notre Dame in its opener.  Then it allowed 382 passing to Villanova and 377 passing to UMass.  This clearly isn't the same stout Temple defense that we've seen over the last few years.  That's probably due to losing five of their top six tacklers on that side of the ball.  Their front seven is very weak right now.

The Bulls are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  South Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* Lions/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -3.5

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter last week against the Cardinals, but then reeled off 21 straight points after David Johnson went out with an injury.  The Cardinals handed them the game by committing four turnovers, including three picks from Carson Palmer.  Now the Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers heading into Week 2 based on one performance.

This is the perfect sell high, buy low game.  We'll sell high on the Lions, and buy low on a New York Giants team that looked awful on the National TV stage in a 3-19 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.  But the Cowboys simply wanted that game more after getting swept by the Giants last year.  Look for the Giants to bring a different, more determined mindset into their home opener on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

It would be nice if the Giants get Odell Beckham back this week from injury, but if not I still like them at -3.5.  This line is only going to climb if it's announced he is playing.  But the Giants still have plenty of weapons outside to get the job done in Brandon Marshall, Evan Ingram and Sterling Shephard.

But what really makes the Giants the right side is their huge advantage defensively.  Pro Football Focus ranked the Giants the best defense in the NFL last year, and they have basically everyone back.  Holding a potent Cowboys offense to just 19 points last week was impressive, especially since the Giants only held the ball for 25 minutes on offense.  New York defenders fought through fatigue and had an admirable performance.

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and now they are heavily injured on this side of the ball early on in 2017.  DE Kerry Hyder and DE Armonty Bryant are out.  The Lions also have injuries two two starting tacklers on offense in Taylor Decker (out) and Corey Robinson (questionable).  I expect the Giants to win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this one.

The Giants beat the Lions 17-6 at home last season behind a dominant effort defensively, and we can anticipate more of the same in the rematch.  Detroit is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off an upset win as a home dog.  Jim Caldwell is 0-8 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of Detroit.  The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +14

This is a massive spread for a division rivalry game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.  The Seahawks are clearly the better team, but asking them to win by two touchdowns or more to cover the spread is asking too much here Sunday.

The Seahawks have issues offensively that aren't immediately fixable, and that was evident in their 9-17 road loss to the Packers in Week 1.  They managed just 225 total yards against an average Packers defense.  Russell Wilson completed just 51.9% of his passes for 135 yards on 27 attempts.

Seattle has the same problem offensively that it has had for the last several years.  It fails to upgrade the offensive line, and Russell Wilson continuously has to run for his life.  Of course, it didn't help matters when starting LT George Fant suffered and torn ACL in the preseason.

That makes this a good matchup for the 49ers, whose strength is their front seven defensively.  The 49ers have added elite talent in the early rounds of recent NFL drafts to upgrade their defensive line and LB corps.  They still have Navorro Bowman around to lead the troops, and he remains one of the elite LB's in the league.

The 49ers played a better game than the 23-3 final would indicate against the Panthers, especially defensively.  They only allowed 287 total yards to the Panthers and 4.6 yards per play.  They were very good against the run, limiting the Panthers to just 3.1 yards per carry on 38 attempts.  I think their defense will keep them in this game.

The offense obviously was not effective in managing just a field goal against the Panthers.  But Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the game as we saw last year with the Falcons, and he will figure out a way to make this offense hum.  It's a complex scheme that wasn't going to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1, but I look for Brian Hoyer and company to take a step forward this week.

The Seahawks are notorious slow starters.  They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Week 2 games.  The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC West opponents.  I expect San Francisco to harass Russell Wilson for four quarters and stay within two touchdowns this week.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -2.5

If you don't jump on now you're going to miss the boat on the Los Angeles Rams.  This is going to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season.  The 46-9 win over the Indianapolis Colts was no fluke last week, and I look for the Rams to make easy work of the Washington Redskins as only 2.5-point home favorites in Week 2.

Sean McVay is the youngest head coach in NFL history, and his players feed off his energy.  He ran an excellently-designed offense in Washington before coming here, and that offense was on display in a big way against the Colts.  It's no accident Jared Goff had the best game of his career, completing 21 of 29 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It was Goff's first victory as a starting QB, and there will be many more to come under McVay's tutelage.

The Rams have had one of the most talented defenses in the NFL over the last few years, and the offense has simply held them back.  But now this defense can flourish in 2017.  That was the case against the Colts as the D held them to just 225 total yards while forcing three turnovers.  And that was even without their best player in DT Aaron Donald, who could return to action this week.

I'm way down on the Redskins this season.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, one that gave up 30 points, 356 total yards and 5.7 yards per play to the Eagles last week.  The offense will take a step back without McVay calling the shots, especially with the losses of two of their best weapons in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in the offseason.  This offense managed just 264 total yards and 4.6 per play against the Eagles last week.

The Rams are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints +7

Yes, the last three times the Patriots lost their season opener they went on to win the Super Bowl.  Yes, the Patriots under Bill Belichick have been great bets following a loss.  But the fact of the matter is that these aren't the same old Patriots.  I faded them by backing the Chiefs +9 Thursday, and I'll fade them again in Week 2.

The New England Patriots couldn't have possibly been more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.  That's going to provide some nice line value to fade them moving forward.

Tom Brady has been known to have great chemistry with his receivers, but that isn't the case now that he's without perhaps his favorite receiver ever in Julian Edelman.  Brady went just 16-of-36 passing for 267 yards without a touchdown in the 27-42 loss to the Chiefs.  Now Danny Amendola is questionable with a concussion after getting knocked out of the Chiefs game.

There were many signs in the preseason that the Patriots wouldn't be good defensively.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the Giants.  That carried over into the regular season as they gave up 42 points and 537  total yards to an underwhelming Chiefs offense.

Now that defense has to take on what has historically been one of the best offenses in the NFL over the past decade in the Saints.  And the Patriots have serious injury issues on defense, especially at LB where Dont'a Hightower is doubtful after suffering a knee injury to the Chiefs.  New England's defense completely imploded once he left the field as he is probably their most important player on that side of the ball.

Brees went 27-of-37 passing (73.0%) against a very good Vikings defense last week in a 19-29 road loss.  They trailed most the way so they couldn't utilize their talented backfield of Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara as much as they wanted to.  Look for them to really focus on getting the running game going against a Patriots defense that surrendered 185 rushing yards and 6.9 per carry to the Chiefs.

Sean Payton is 25-10 ATS off a road loss at the coach of New Orleans.  Payton is 19-7 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of the Saints.  The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Saints Sunday.

15* Texas/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +17

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Herman is already taking this offense to the next level as the Longhorns have averaged 48.5 points and 548.0 yards per game through their first two contests.  After getting upset 41-51 by a Maryland team that is better than most expected, the Longhorns took out their frustration with a 56-0 shutout victory of San Jose State last week.  I think that is more like the Texas team you can expect moving forward.

USC is in a massive letdown spot here after its 42-24 win over Stanford last week.  The Trojans had that game circled all offseason because the Cardinal had their number in previous years.  Now the betting public is back in love with them, quickly forgetting how poor the Trojans looked in their 49-31 win over Western Michigan the previous week as 28-point favorites.  I think USC is somewhere in between those two performances, but they certainly aren't more than two touchdowns better than Texas.

The 'game of the year' line that came out in June was USC -12.5 over Texas.  That's close to where it should be, though I think it should be around -10.  So we're getting some extra value here with Texas at +17 due to the Maryland loss and how dominant USC looked against Stanford.  We'll take that value and run with it this week.

I know QB Shane Buechele is injured, but I'm not concerned about it.  He is probable but may not play, but I don't think there's much of a difference between him and freshman Sam Ehlinger, who threw for 222 yards in place of Buechele against San Jose State last week.  He didn't take a sack as his mobility got him out of trouble, and he rushed for 48 yards on seven carries as well.  Ehlinger lost his father in 2013, and his maturity is through the roof, so he won't be phased in the national spotlight this weekend.

"From the day I met him, this is an extremely mature guy. You don't go through what he went through ... all of a sudden have to be the man of your household, and not mature very quickly," Herman said. "He's a bit of an old soul. I think that's what has allowed him to step into this role maybe a little bit easier than most."

Texas running back Chris Warren III said after the game that Ehlinger rarely seems rattled: "Sam's a baller. He'll come out and play regardless. I don't think he's the one to get nervous about this kind of stuff.

Now for the good stuff in regard to Texas' head coach.  Tom Herman was an underdog 6 times as Ohio State's offensive coordinator and five times as Houston's coach.  Not only did his teams go a perfect 11-0 ATS in the role of the dog, but they also went 11-0 SU, winning outright all 11 times.  Houston beat the likes of Oklahoma and Louisville last year, and Florida State the year before.  I'm not saying the Longhorns will win outright, but they will give the Trojans a run for their money.  Roll with Texas Saturday.

15* Clemson/Louisville ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +3.5

The Louisville Cardinals have had this game circled all offseason.  That's because the Cardinals have lost three straight heartbreakers to the Tigers over the last three years.  They lost by 6 on the road in 2014, by 3 at home in 2015, and by 6 on the road in 2017.  They actually outgained the Tigers in two of those three contests.  These players have not forgotten, and they feel like they have some unfinished business coming into this game.

I like the fact that Louisville hasn't exactly looked great in its first two games.  It won 35-28 as 25.5-point road favorites at Purdue, and 47-35 as 11.5-point favorites at North Carolina.  Those were two tricky road games, and you can excuse the Cardinals for just going through the motions knowing that they had this huge game against Clemson coming in Week 3.  Letdowns for Louisville has been a problem under Bobby Petrino, but that won't be the case here given the magnitude of this game.

Clemson won the National Championship and then opened the season 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS, so the betting public is all over this team.  But they opened as 8.5-point favorites against Auburn and were bet down to 6, so they got the cover in a 14-6 win last week against the closing line.  It was a shaky performance against an Auburn team that is way overrated.  And now after slugging it out with Auburn last week, that makes this is a very difficult situation for the Tigers having to try and chase around a speedy, athletic team like Louisville.

Lamar Jackson is the most electrifying player in college football.  He won the Heisman Trophy last year in large part because he had a huge game against this Clemson defense last year in a game the Cardinals arguably should have won.  Jackson led Louisville to 568 total yards against Clemson.  He threw for 295 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 162 yards and two scores.

Although the last two games for Louisville were reasonably close on the scoreboard, they weren't in the box score.  The Cardinals outgained Purdue by 180 yards and UNC by 304 yards.  Jackson accounted for 542 yards and 6 total touchdowns in that win over UNC, proving that he's once again in Heisman form coming into this one.

Dabo Swinney is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Petrino is 45-25 ATS at home in his career as a head coach.  Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992.  Take Louisville Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oregon -13.5

Oregon went 4-8 last season and Mark Helfrich was fired.  This was a Ducks team that had won at least 9 games in the regular season in eight straight seasons from 2008 through 2015.  So it was an aberration, and I expect them to get back to their winning ways under Willie Taggart.

Taggart has had success right away in his two previous stops at Western Kentucky and South Florida.  He guided the Bulls to an 11-2 record last season, and we've seen them be sluggish without him thus far in 2017.  It was a USF team that scored 30 or more points in 16 straight games dating back to 2015, so he is an offensive genius.

Now Taggart has inherited an Oregon team that returned 17 starters this season.  The offense was expected to be potent with QB Justin Herbert, RB Royce Freeman and the top two receivers returning, and that has proven to be the case thus far.  The Ducks are already averaging 59.5 points, 635 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play through two games against Southern Utah and Nebraska.

New defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt is a no-nonsense guy who was responsible for Colorado's turnaround on defense over the last two seasons.  He will make a big difference in getting the most out of this Oregon defense as the season progresses.

Many will see the final score being 42-35 last week against Nebraska and think it was a close game.  But it wasn't at all. Oregon rolled to a 42-14 halftime lead, then failed to show up in the second half and was outscored 21-0 after intermission.  The Ducks outgained the Cornhuskers 566 to 361, or by 205 yards.  The defense forced four turnovers and played well.

But that poor second half is going to work in our favor this week.  It is keeping this line lower than it should be, and you can bet that Taggart has let his players have it all week in practice for that poor finish.  They'll show up with a more determined, focused mindset as a result.

Wyoming gets a lot of hype because of QB Josh Allen, who could be the first QB taken in next year's NFL draft.  But this offense has really underwhelmed thus far.  They lost 3-24 at Iowa, amassing just 233 total yards while committing two turnovers.  They only managed 393 total yards in a 27-0 win over Gardner Webb as 38.5-point favorites.  Iowa even committed four turnovers and still won by 21 points, and Oregon is a better team than Iowa.

Taggart is 31-9 ATS in all road games as a head coach.  I think this line is lower than it should be because it's a road game and all the talk about altitude in Laramie, Wyoming.  But Oregon players are used to high altitude venues in Colorado and Utah and have done well their in the recent past.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 6.4 or more yards/play, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 39-12 (76.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Herbert, who is completing 78% of his passes with a 4-to-1 TD/INT ratio thus far, will lead the Ducks to an easy win and cover in Wyoming this weekend.  Take Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +7

It's almost a given that Mississippi State is picked to finish last in the SEC West by basically every major publication heading into the season.  And it's also a given that Mississippi State doesn't finish last under Dan Mullen.  He always gets the most out of his players, and the job he's doing in Starksville is one of the most underrated in the country.

Mullen has now taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons.  The job he did the last two years getting them to 9-4 in 2015 and 6-7 in 2016 was impressive.  They had just seven starters back in '15 and only 10 starters back in '16.

But now Mullen has one of his more experienced teams in 2017 with 13 starters back.  QB Nick Fitzgerald did a great job of filling Dak Prescott's shoes once he took over as a sophomore last year.  He threw for 2,423 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 scores.  He is clearly one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC.

Mississippi State opened its season with a dominant 49-0 victory over Charleston Southern as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 27.5 points.  The Bulldogs outgained them 555 to 33, or by 522 total yards.  Holding any team to just 33 yards of offense is impressive, I don't care the opponent, and it's a sign that this defense should be one of the most improved in the land after giving up 31.8 points per game last year.  Mullen's defenses hadn't allowed more than 23.3 points per game in any season dating back to 2010.

I rolled Mississippi State last week, and they delivered in a 57-21 beat down as 10.5-point favorites at Louisiana Tech, covering by 25.5 points.  And the markets just haven't caught up with how good this team really is.  The Bulldogs are now catching a touchdown at home against the LSU Tigers.

The betting public is going to be on LSU in this one, but we're not falling for the trap.  This has been a very tight series over the last three years with all three meetings decided by 5 points or less.  Mississippi State won 34-29 as 7-point dogs at LSU in 2014, lost 19-21 as 3-point home dogs in 2015, and lost 20-23 as 13-point road dogs in 2016.  I could easily see this game decided by less than a TD once again with the Bulldogs having a legitimate shot to win outright.

Dan Mullen is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two straight non-conference games as the coach of Mississippi State having never lost.  Plays against road favorites (LSU) - excellent rushing team (230-plus RY/G) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (100 or less RY/G), after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulane +34.5

Willie Fritz put Georgia Southern on the map by taking them to the Sun Belt title in 2014 and their first ever bowl win in 2015.  He took the job at Tulane knowing it would be a rebuilding process, and Year 1 was a struggle as the Green Wave went just 4-8.  Fritz brought his spread option offense to Tulane in '16 but did not have the right personnel to run it.  Now he does.

Fritz welcomes back 16 starters this season.  He recruited his type of of QB to run the spread option in Jonathan Banks, who is a perfect fit.  The dress rehearsal went well in Week 1 in a 43-14 win over Grambling as 22-point favorites, covering the spread by 7 points.  They jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead before coasting to the finish.  Banks went 10-of-15 passing for 185 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 69 yards and a score on 16 carries.

I took Tulane as my free pick last Saturday and they covered with ease as 13.5-point dogs in a 21-23 loss at Navy.  That was even with Banks getting hurt in the second quarter and sitting out the rest of the game.  Sophomore Johnathan Brantley has a similar skill set, and he ripped off a 42-yard gain on an option the first time he kept the ball, setting up his first career touchdown one play later.

Brantley finished the game as the Green Wave's leading rusher with 73 yards on nine attempts.  He also completed 5-of-8 passes for 58 yards in the win.  Brantley is expected to get the start Saturday with Banks likely to be available off the bench.  Either way, I think Tulane has what it takes to stay within five touchdowns of Oklahoma.

This is an awful spot for Oklahoma.  The Sooners are coming off a shocking 31-16 upset victory at Ohio State on ABC last Saturday night.  Baker Mayfield planted the OU flag on the 50-yard line after the win, and later talked about how the Sooners responded to being disrespected.  After earning their respect, I am 100% certain they will fall flat on their faces this week against Tulane.  They won't bring the kind of focus it's going to take to put Tulane away by five touchdowns or more.  They'll be looking ahead to their Big 12 opener next week at Baylor as well.

Tulane is one of the few teams in the AAC that actually plays defense, too.  The Green Wave are only giving up 275 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through two games.  They held a potent Navy attack to just 326 total yards while forcing two turnovers.  This is a Navy team that rushes for over 300 yards almost every week, yet they held the Midshipmen to just 194 yards on 52 attempts, or an average of 3.7 yards per carry.  Stopping the run will be key late in this game as Oklahoma tries to sit on a lead.

Fritz is 11-2 ATS in the month of September in all games he has coached.  His system is so tough to prepare for with the spread option.  Oklahoma won't be focused all week after that huge win, and I expect their preparation to be lacking.  That will allow Tulane to catch them by surprise and score enough points to make this one more interesting than the oddsmakers are anticipating.  Bet Tulane Saturday.

15* UMass/Temple CFB Friday No-Brainer on UMass +14.5

The UMass Minutemen returned 15 starters this season and should have been improved after their 2-10 disaster last year.  But instead they've opened 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS, making them the perfect 'buy low' candidate heading into their 4th game of the season.

It's not like UMass hasn't been competitive, either.  They lost in the closing minutes to Hawaii, and all three of their losses have come by 10 points or less.  They have only been outgained by 84 yards on the season as well.  I think they'll remain competitive today, especially against their 'big brother' in Temple as they are looking to pull the upset.

This is a Temple team that I'm way down on this year.  Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls came into the season getting too much love and are way overvalued here.

I backed Notre Dame in Week 1 in a 49-16 throttling of Temple as 20-point favorites.  The Irish outgained the Owls by 276 yards in that contest.  Even more concerning may have been last week's narrow 16-13 win over FCS foe Villanova.  The Owls were outgained by 49 yards by Villanova and probably should have lost.  I'm not quite sure after those two performances how the Owls can be favored by more than two touchdowns here.

These teams played two years ago, and Temple only won 25-23 as 13.5-point favorites over UMass.  That was a much better Temple team than the 2017 edition.  I expect the Minutemen to give the Owls a run for their money once again here.  Take UMass Friday.

20* Texans/Bengals AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +6.5

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were both thoroughly embarrassed in Week 1.  The Texans lost 7-29 at home to the Jaguars, while the Bengals lost 0-20 at home to the Ravens.  Both teams will come back motivated in Week 2.

But I'm not sure why the Bengals are getting so much respect from the oddsmakers here.  This line opened at Bengals -3, which is about where it should be, and has been bet all the way up to Bengals -6.5 as of this writing.  I think the time is now to pounce and take the Texans at a great value in a game that is likely to come down to the wire.

The Texans pretty much gave away the game to the Jaguars by committing four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.  Their defense played well in limiting the Jaguars to 280 total yards, and this is going to be one of the best defenses in the NFL again after leading the league in total defense last year.

Tom Savage really sabotaged the team in the first half.  Bill O'Brien made the switch to Deshaun Watson at halftime, and they played the Jaguars to a 10-7 game after intermission.  Watson played well, going 12 of 23 for 102 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also rushing for 16 yards on two carries.

It looks as though Watson is going to get the nod Thursday against the Bengals, which I think is an upgrade for the Texans.  The offensive line got manhandled by a very underrated front seven for Jacksonville, and Watson's mobility behind this shaky O-line will help mask the problems.  He's not afraid of the big stage, so I'm far from worried about this being his first NFL road game.  This guy has the 'It' factor.

I was way down on the Bengals coming into the season, and they did nothing Week 1 to change my opinion.  They committed five turnovers and managed just 221 total yards in their ugly 20-0 loss to the Ravens.  They are missing some key players on defense in safety Shawn Williams, DE Michael Johnson and LB Vontaze Burfict that will have their D exposed in the short term.

The Texans have clearly had the Bengals' number.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  They have won each of their last three trips to Cincinnati outright as dogs of 10, 4 and 2.5 points.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off the upset once again here.

The Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Texans Thursday.

15* New Mexico/Boise State ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 59

The Boise State Broncos are likely to be without starter Brett Rypien today after he suffered a concussion against Washington State last week.  They fell apart after he went out and Kansas reject Montell Cozart took over for him.  Cozart had a costly pick-6 late in that game which aided in Boise blowing a 21-point lead, eventually losing 44-47 in triple-overtime.

Boise State has played two very strong offensive teams up to this point, and the defense has played tremendously.  In games against Troy and Washington State, the Broncos' D has only allowed a total of 20 points at the end of regulation.  The problem is the offense has given more points (21) than the defense has.  The offense has allowed two pick 6's and a fumble return for a TD.

So it's clear that the Broncos have an elite defense, and they will shut down this New Mexico offense.  The Lobos primarily run the football, and the Broncos have only allowed 49 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry through their first two contests.  That makes this an excellent matchup for them.

With Cozart likely to be running the offense, look for the Broncos to go with a more conservative, ground-based attack.  And New Mexico has held its own against the run this season, too.  It is allowing just 53 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry through its first two contests.  I think points will be hard to come by in this one, which is why I'm on the UNDER 59 here.

Boise State is 7-0 to the UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Brian Harsin is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of the Broncos.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Chargers/Broncos ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +3.5

The Chargers get a breathe of fresh air in 2017 with their move to Los Angeles.  It will help them get over their 5-11 season from 2016 which saw lose more starts due to injury than any other team in the NFL.  Yet this easily could have been a .500 or better team when you look at how they fared in close games.

All 11 of San Diego's losses last season came by 12 points or less, including nine by 8 points or fewer.  So they were competitive in every game they played essentially.  Philip Rivers got the most out of the talent he had on hand, but he also made some critical mistakes late in games.  Anything that could go wrong did last year.

I think the Chargers are putting a lot into this season knowing that Rivers only has a few years left.  He should get a healthy season from Keenan Allen after he missed most of the last two years with injuries.  They selected Mike Williams seventh overall and he should come in and contribute in a big way right away.  Melvin Gordon proved he could handle the workload by rushing for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns before missing basically the last four games due ton injury.

The Chargers have one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL.  They gave up 347 yards per game and 5.6 per play last season, which was right around league average.  But they were much better after rookie Joey Bosa ended his holdout.  Bosa tied for the NFL lead with 11 tackles for loss, plus team-highs in sacks (10.5) and QB hits (21).  Melvin Inrgam remains one of the better DE's in the game.

The Denver Broncos have a great defense once again, but they also have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL.  They desperately wanted Paxton Lynch to win the job in the preseason, but he was awful, so they'll be sticking with Trevor Siemian, who wasn't much better.  He threw 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions last year for an offense that managed just 20.8 points per game.

The Chargers are 40-22 ATS in their last 62 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Los Angeles is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 September games, including 5-0 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.  The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  The Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.  Bet the Chargers Monday.

15* Seahawks/Packers NFL Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 51

The books have set the bar too high on this total in the Seahawks/Packers game in Week 1.  I fully expect more a defensive battle than this whopping 51-point total would indicate.  I think the way these two teams finished the season has this total inflated.

This is especially true for the Packers, who closes last season on a 7-0 run to the OVER.  Their defense was extremely banged up down the stretch, and Aaron Rodgers did a great job winning shootouts week after week.  Now that is fresh in the public's mind, but the fact of the matter is the Packers will be much better defensively now that they are healthy to open 2017.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

The Seahawks closed last season on a 3-1 run to the over, but they also had key injuries to Earl Thomas and other, and they lost 20-36 to the Falcons in the playoffs.  They will get back to being one of the best defensive teams in the NFL now, especially with the addition of Sheldon Richardson via trade.  They allowed just 14.0 points per game in the preseason.

I think the recent head-to-head history in this series shows that there is value with the UNDER.  The Seahawks and Packers have combined for 48, 44 and 44 points at the end of regulation in their last three meetings.  Neither team has been able to get to 400 yards of offense in any of the last five meetings.  Seattle is 30-12 to the UNDER in its last 42 September road games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +7

The Atlanta Falcons came out of nowhere to go 11-5 during the regular season.  They proceeded to blow out both the Seahawks and Packers before stomping the Patriots 28-3 late in the third quarter of the Super Bowl.  That's where it fell apart as they actually blew that lead and lost in overtime.

It's going to be extremely difficult for the Falcons to get over that loss.  It's usually a good move to fade the Super Bowl loser.  Since 2000, only two teams that lost the Super Bowl actually finished with a better record the next season.  We saw the Panthers fall flat last year after losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl the previous season, and I think the same fate will follow the Falcons.

But the Falcons enter 2017 way overvalued now after that great season.  They are now being asked to lay 7 points on the road to the Chicago Bears.  They still have plenty of talent, especially offensively, but they did lose coordinator Kyle Shanahan this offseason, and now have a first-time NFL coordinator in Steve Sarkisian.  The defense still has plenty of holes as well after allowing 25.3 points per game 377 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play last year.

Injuries really gave the Bears no chance of having a good season last year during their 3-13 campaign.  But they enter 2017 a lot healthier and should be improved, plus they're flying under the radar, which provides great value against the betting lines.

They should get better QB play after signing Mike Glennon in the offseason.  They have a special young back in Jordan Howard, who rushed for 1,313 yards last year.  They also added some WR talent in Kendall Wright from Tennessee and Markus Wheaton from Pittsburgh, which should help make up for the losses of Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith.  Kevin White is now healthy and ready to show off the talent that made him a first-round pick a couple years back.

John Fox is a defensive guy, and I think he will have the Bears surprising on this side of the ball in 2017 after a mediocre season last year with a defense that gave up 347 yards per game and 5.7 per play, which was right around league average.  They added CB Prince Amukamara, CB Marcus Cooper and S Quintin Demps to shore up their secondary, and all three are expected to start.

The Bears went 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS at home last year.  They only lost twice by more than a touchdown.  I think they can keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset, especially against a Falcons team that is overvalued and still reeling from their Super Bowl loss.

The Bears were -20 in turnover differential last year, tied for last in the NFL.  These teams are prime bounce-back candidates and fit into a system that I love this week.  Plays on any team (CHICAGO) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Cardinals -1.5

The Arizona Cardinals won 10 games in 2013, 11 games in 2014 and 13 games in 2015 in Bruce Arians' first three seasons on the job.  Expectations were hight last year, but they went 7-8-1 to fall well short of them.  However, there's no question they were much better than their record would indicate.
 
They actually led the NFL in yardage differential, gaining 366.8 yards per game offensively while giving up only 305.2 yards per game defensively, outgaining teams by 61.6 yards per game.  To compare, the Patriots were the second-best team in this department last year at +59.9 and the Falcons (+44.6) were fourth, so they were in some good company.

Five of Arizona's eight losses last season came by a touchdown or less, and they tied with the Seahawks in a game they dominated but should have won.  The Cardinals are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.  They will have better luck in the health department and win more of their close games.

Arizona finished second in the NFL in total defense last season and led the league with 44 sacks.  The tandem of Chandler Jones and Markus Golden combined for 23.5 of those sacks, and both are back to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.  They also have one of the best secondary's in the league.

Carson Palmer is reportedly in the best shape of his career, and he has David Johnson to lean on, who had over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns last year.  Larry Fitzgerald is still productive, and getting a healthy John Brown back at receiver should make their offense even more explosive.

The Detroit Lions were extremely fortunate to go 9-7 last year and make the playoffs.  They took advantage of an easy schedule and great breaks.  Eight of the Lions' nine wins came by a touchdown or less.  They actually trailed in the fourth quarter in 15 of their 16 regular season games, but Matthew Stafford kept pulling off miracles late.  It's not going to happen again.

I fully expect the Cardinals to have a winning record this season, and Stafford is 5-46 in his career against teams that finish the season with a winning record.  The Lions have a ton of injury issues already heading into Week 1.  OT Taylor Decker, DE Kerry Hyder, DE Brandon Copeland, DE Armonty Bryant and DT Khyri Thornton are all out.  They are missing most of their defensive line, which is bad news for trying to stop a back the caliber of David Johnson.

The Cardinals are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Lions, winning seven of those eight meetings by 7 points or more, and outscoring them by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +6

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team on the rise.  Yes, they went just 3-13 last year, but they were much better than that record would indicate.  They went 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  So they were way more competitive last season, and they were much closer to an 8-8 team than a 3-13 one.

This is a Jaguars defense that is going to be one of the best in the NFL this season.  They have consistently drafted talent on defense over the last few seasons, and it started showing signs of being a great unit in the second half last year.  Now they are a year older and more experienced on that side of the ball.  This is a defense that will keep them in most ball games.

The defense added CB A.J. Bouye, DE Calais Campbell and SS Barry Church, three projected starters that will only add to a talented group that includes recent first-round draft picks Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.  The offense added RB Leonard Fournette and LT Cam Robinson in the first round rounds of the draft this year, and both are expected to start Week 1.

The Houston Texans aren't a team that can be trusted laying this kind of number.  They went 9-7 last year, but all nine of their wins came by single-digits, including eight by a touchdown or less.  They got terrible QB play last year and that's unlikely to change in 2017.  They drafted Deshaun Watson as their QB of the future, but it's going to be Tom Savage taking the snaps in Week 1.

The Jaguars played the Texans tough in both meetings last year, losing 21-24 at home and 20-21 on the road.  I think this one is likely to go down to the wire as well, and they'll be extra motivated to end a 6-game losing streak to the Texans overall in this series.

Jacksonville was -16 in turnover differential last year.  That tends to even itself out over time, and I expect head coach Doug Marrone to emphasize taking care of the football in 2017.  It also sets the Jaguars up for a nice system play for Week 1.

Plays on any team (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had turnover margin of -1 /game or worse last season, in conference games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Titans -1.5

The Tennessee Titans are a team on the rise.  They went 9-7 last season and were competitive in every game but one. Six of their seven losses came by single-digits.  They won four of their final five games last year to really carry over some momentum into 2017.

Marcus Mariota took a big step forward last year with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions.  The running game was one of the best in the NFL at 137 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry behind the two-headed attack of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry.  The defense was just average, but the Titans made several moves on that side of the ball in the offseason that will have them in the top half of the league this year.

The Oakland Raiders were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last year.  Give them credit for going 12-4 in the regular season, but they easily could have been 8-8 or worse.  The Raiders went a ridiculous 9-2 in games decided by 8 points or less.  That's not going to happen again.

That record in close games covered up a lot of problems for this team, especially defensively.  The Raiders gave up 24.2 points per game, 370 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This was one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, and it's not going to be any better in 2017 as they lost a lot of players on that side of the ball.

This is a revenge game for the Titans, who lost 10-17 at home to the Raiders last year.  They rushed for 181 yards in the loss, but committed three turnovers, which was the difference in the game.  Marcus Mariota will be motivated to redeem himself after throwing two picks in that loss.

Tennessee is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in the series.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

25* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on New Mexico State +7.5

I was very impressed with New Mexico State's Week 1 effort at Pac-12 foe Arizona State.  The Aggies arguably outplayed the Sun Devils in their 31-37 loss at 26-point road dogs.  They outgained them 549 to 400, or by 149 total yards, so it was no fluke that they nearly pulled off the upset.

This is a New Mexico State team that is one of the most experienced in the Sun Belt as they returned 20 starters.  They have nine back on defense, and perhaps the most impressive part about the ASU game is that they held them to just 79 rushing yards on 40 carries, or an average of 2.0 per carry.

That's going to be huge going up against a New Mexico team that relies exclusively on the run to move the football.  The Lobos rushed for 350 yards per game last year and rushed for 259 in their 38-14 opening win over Abilene Christian as 34-point favorites, failing to cover the number by 10 points.

I have the Lobos pegged as a team that will regress big-time following their surprising 9-4 campaign last year.  They go from having 15 starters back last season to just 10 starters returning in 2017.  Their defense is a mess with only three starters back.  They lose eight of their top nine tacklers on D, and this explosive NMSU offense that put up 549 yards against ASU should do whatever they want to against this New Mexico D.

New Mexico State is 3-0 ATS against New Mexico the last three years.  They won 32-31 as 11-point home dogs in 2016, lost 38-29 as 10.5-point road dogs in 2015, and lost 35-38 as 4-point home dogs in 2014.  Now this is the first time in a long time that I actually think NMSU has the better team in this in-state rivalry, and I think that will show on the football field Saturday as they likely win outright.  Getting 7.5 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is 5-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points in all games he has coached.  The Lobos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 59-26 (69.4%) ATS since 1992.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State -8

It's almost a given that Mississippi State is picked to finish last in the SEC West by basically every major publication heading into the season.  And it's also a given that Mississippi State doesn't finish last under Dan Mullen.  He always gets the most out of his players, and the job he's doing in Starksville is one of the most underrated in the country.

Mullen has now taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in seven consecutive seasons.  The job he did the last two years getting them to 9-4 in 2015 and 6-7 in 2016 was impressive.  They had just seven starters back in '15 and only 10 starters back in '16.

But now Mullen has one of his more experienced teams in 2017 with 13 starters back.  QB Nick Fitzgerald did a great job of filling Dak Prescott's shoes once he took over as a sophomore last year.  He threw for 2,423 yards with 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,375 yards and 16 scores.  He is clearly one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the SEC.

Mississippi State opened its season with a dominant 49-0 victory over Charleston Southern as 21.5-point favorites, covering the spread by 27.5 points.  The Bulldogs outgained them 555 to 33, or by 522 total yards.  Holding any team to just 33 yards of offense is impressive, I don't care the opponent, and it's a sign that this defense should be one of the most improved in the land after giving up 31.8 points per game last year.  Mullen's defenses hadn't allowed more than 23.3 points per game in any season dating back to 2010.

Louisiana Tech went 9-5 last year and finished 2nd in Conference USA.  Skip Holtz is doing a fine job down in Ruston, but he has his hands full in 2017.  Only 11 starters return and they lose all of their top playmakers on offense, and each of their top three tacklers on defense.

The losses on offense are enormous.  QB Ryan Higgins is gone after throwing for 4,617 yards with 41 touchdowns against eight interceptions.  Two receivers who combined for 3,300-plus yards are gone to the NFL in Trent Taylor (136 receptions, 1,803 yards, 12 TD) and Carlos Henderson (82, 1,535, 19 TD).  You just don't replace that type of production.

LA Tech had a cake opponent in Week 1 and beat Northwestern State 52-24 as 39.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 11.5 points.  But this was a much closer game than the final score.  This game was tied 28-28 with one minute left in the 3rd quarter before LA Tech scored 28 points in the final 16 minutes to pull away.  They only outgained NW State by 108 total yards despite that frantic finish.

LA Tech even had two non-offensive TD's in that game with a 66-yard punt return and a 26-yard fumble scoop and score.  The new QB is J'Mar Smith, and he wasn't very sharp as he completed just 18-of-35 (51.4%) of his passes in the win.  He's going to have to be way more efficient if LA Tech has any shot against Mississippi State, and I don't believe he will be.

Mississippi State is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* South Carolina/Missouri SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri -2.5

The Missouri Tigers won the SEC East in 2013 and '14 before going 5-7 and then 4-8 the past two seasons, respectively.  I think their talent level is somewhere in between those results, and they are prime bounce back candidates in 2017.

Barry Odom stepped into a rough situation in his first season last year with just 10 returning starters.  They had key injuries on defense that resulted in them going from giving up 16.2 points per game in '15 to 31.5 points per game in '16.  This defense is likely to be improved, especially with Odom colling the shots as their former defensive coordinator.

As much as the Tigers regressed on defense last year, their offense took an even bigger step forward from 13.6 points per game and 281 yards per game in '15 to 31.4 points per game and 501 yards per game in '16.  This offense will be one of the best in the country in 2017 with 10 returning starters after having just three starters back on offense last year.  QB Drew Lock is an elite talent who has all five starting offensive linemen back.

This offense had arguably the most impressive performance of any team in Week 1, racking up 72 points and 815 total yards against Missouri State.  They rushed for 294 yards and passed for 521 to show off their balance.  I think they keep rolling on that side of the ball against South Carolina today.

South Carolina was fortunate to make a bowl game last year.  They went 6-7 and all six of their wins came by 13 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  That included a 6-point home win over UMass, a 5-point home win over East Carolina and a 13-point home win over Western Carolina.  Simply put, they weren't that good.

But the Gamecocks pulled off a big upset in Week 1 with a 35-28 win as 8-point dogs over NC State.  Now they are getting too much love heading into Week 2.  But they were dominated in the box score in that game and should have lost.  NC State actually outgained South Carolina 504 to 246, or by 258 total yards.  You won't find many teams that win games when they get outgained by that kind of margin.

The home team has won both meetings over the last two seasons.  Missouri won 24-10 at home in 2016, while South Carolina won 31-21 at home last year.  But the Tigers actually outgained the Gamecocks 465 to 428 in that game last year, so they showed what their offense could do against that defense.  Don't be surprised to see the Tigers rack up 600-plus yards in this one.  The Tigers are 28-6 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Rutgers -5

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

That came to fruition in Week 1 as I backed Rutgers as +28 dogs to Washington, and they gave the Huskies all they wanted in a 14-30 defeat.  They held that explosive Washington offense to just 368 total yards and were only outgained by 59 yards in that contest.    Bolin threw two costly picks in his own territory that really decided the game, but overall he was efficient completing 24-of-35 passes in the loss.

Eastern Michigan was a nice story last year.  After going 7-41 in their previous four seasons, including 3-29 in MAC play, the Eagles managed to make a bowl game and finish 7-5 on the season.  But five of their seven wins came by a touchdown or less, and the only exceptions were Charlotte and Mississippi Valley State.

EMU opened with a 24-7 win over that terrible Charlotte team that is one of the worst in the FBS.  Now the Eagles take a big step up in class here against a Big Ten opponent that will have more talent than them at almost every position.  The Eagles are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers for what they did last year as only 5-point dogs in this true road game.

The Eagles are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a home win.  The Eagles are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win.  Rutgers will be hungry to taste victory following 10 consecutive losses dating back to  a 37-28 home win over New Mexico in their 3rd game last season.  That was a New Mexico team that went 9-4 last year.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Fresno State +44

The Fresno State Bulldogs went just 1-11 last year and aren't getting any love heading into 2017.  These are the types of teams I like backing early, especially when you consider how much potential the Bulldogs have.  They went 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, so they weren't nearly as bad as their record.

New head coach Jeff Tedford stepped into a good situation.  He inherits 16 returning starters and will get the most out of them.  This is a guy that had a lot of success at California, where he went 82-57 in 11 seasons there.  He is now re-energized and ready to tackle this new challenge.

Teford is an offensive guru, and he has 10 returning starters to work with on that side of the ball.  This offense had an impressive dress rehearsal against Incarnate Word.  They won 66-0 as 35-point favorites to cover the number by 31 points.  The offense racked up 613 total yards, while the defense held them to 148 yards, outgaining them by 465 yards for the game.

Nick Saban rarely covers these big numbers in non-conference games.  He has a propensity to take his starters out as early as possibly to save them.  I think that will especially be the case after the defense lost a couple key linebackers to injury in the 24-7 win over Florida State last week.  That also makes this a letdown spot for the Crimson Tide after that huge win over the Seminoles.

Alabama wasn't as dominant as that 24-7 final would indicate.  It only outgained FSU 269 to 250, but the difference was three turnovers by the Seminoles.  The offense struggled in averaging just 4.5 yards per play.  Alabama doesn't have the type of explosive offense that is built to cover 44-point spreads.  And Fresno State does have the talent on offense to put up a score or two, which will help them stay within this massive number.

Plays on underdogs of 31.5 or more points (FRESNO ST) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Michigan State -7

I just believe that that the Michigan State Spartans were massively underrated heading into 2017 after their shocking 3-9 disaster last season.  Mark Dantonio does his best work with his back against the wall, and he'll have the Spartans exceeding expectations now this year.

The Spartans got off to a great start in Week 1 with a 35-10 beat down of Bowling Green as 17-point favorites.  They even lost the turnover battle three to one and still won by 25, outgaining the Falcons 465 to 212 in the process.  It was a dominant effort and one that has me excited about this team moving forward.

Western Michigan is a team I'm way down on.  They lost head coach PJ Fleck to Minnesota, and their all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver.  They only have 12 starters back this year and are way overvalued after going 13-1 last season.

But Western Michigan had a good showing in Week 1, only losing 31-49 at USC as 28-point dogs to cover the spread.  However, I think that was a bad spot for USC as they were looking ahead to their big showdown with Stanford this week.  WMU gave a big effort, while USC simply showed up.

Now this is a tall task for WMU to go on the road for a second straight week to take on another big Power 5 program like Michigan State.  And the Broncos are getting too much line respect for their effort against USC as they are currently being tabbed as only 7-point underdogs.  I look for the Spartans to roll them here as they have better talent all over the field, and they aren't going to be overlooking them because they have a chip on their shoulder after last year.

Michigan State is 26-9 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing 225 or fewer total yards in its previous game.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 41-13 (75.9%) ATS since 1992.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +16.5

Lance Leipold took over a rebuilding team when he got to Buffalo two years ago.  They had only 10 starters back in 2015 and went 5-7, and they had only 11 starters back last year and went 2-10.  Now Leipold enters his 3rd season, which is where head coaches usually make their biggest imprint on the program.  Leipold has his most experienced team yet with 14 returning starters, and almost all of the players playing significant minutes will be his recruits now.

Quarterback Tyree Jackson got his feet wet as a freshman last year and held his own.  He threw for 1,772 yards with nine touchdowns and nine picks, while also rushing for 399 yards and five scores.  He'll be much better as a sophomore behind an offensive line that returns four starters and 68 career starts.

The defense should be way better with eight starters and each of the top six tacklers back.  That was on display in Week 1 as Buffalo gave Minnesota all it wanted in a 7-17 road loss as 21.5-point dogs.  They held a potent Minnesota rushing attack to just 169 yards on 51 carries (3.3/carry).  That's key because they're now up against the triple-option attack of Army.

Army is way overvalued off a stunning 8-5 season last year, especially the way that they finished.  They upset Navy for their first win in 14 tries in the series, then beat North Texas in their bowl game.  Now they opened 2017 up with a 64-6 win over FCS foe Fordham, and the love for the Black Knights is just too much right now.  They shouldn't be laying 16.5 points to Buffalo.

These teams matched up last year with Buffalo actually pulling off the 23-20 upset as 13-point home dogs.  I realize Army will want revenge, but they can still get it without covering the spread.  I expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this one, which clearly favors the big road dog.  Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less.  Take Buffalo Saturday.

15* Oklahoma State/South Alabama ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Oklahoma State -28

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

I backed Oklahoma State as 17.5-point favorites over Tulsa in Week 1, and they delivered with a 59-24 victory.  That offense was in midseason form, racking up 640 total yards on the Golden Hurricane.  They held Tulsa's potent offense attack to just 4.4 yards per play in the win, while averaging 10.2 yards per play on offense.

Now they're up against an even worse team in South Alabama, which is no more than a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt team.  The Jaguars did cover as 21.5-point dogs in a 27-47 loss at Ole Miss in Week 1, which is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But that game wasn't nearly that close.

Ole Miss actually led South Alabama 47-13 with nine minutes left in the 4th quarter.  But the Jaguars tacked on two garbage touchdowns in the final nine minutes to get the back door cover.  So Ole Miss was up 34 on them, and that's a Rebels team that had all kinds of offseason issues and distractions with the firing of Hugh Freeze.  Oklahoma State is on a different level than Ole Miss.

South Alabama allowed 28-of-35 passing for 429 yards to Ole Miss quarterbacks.  So you can just imagine the kind of night that Rudolph, Washington and company are going to have against this Jaguars defense.  They should hang 50-plus on them, which will be enough to cover this spread.

Oklahoma State is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games after scoring 50 or more points in its previous game.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS off an ATS win over the last three seasons.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in after game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take these combined 14-0 systems straight to the bank tonight.  Bet Oklahoma State Friday.

20* Chiefs/Pats 2017 NFL Season Opener on Kansas City +9

The Kansas City Chiefs just don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  Andy Reid is doing a tremendous job here just as he did in Philadelphia.  The Chiefs have won at least 9 games in all four of Reid's seasons, and they've gone 43-21 in the regular season during that stretch.

The New England Patriots couldn't possibly be more overvalued heading into 2017.  They won the Super Bowl last year while coming back from 28-3 down to beat the Falcons.  They went 17-2 overall and a ridiculous 16-3 against the spread.  The betting public isn't going to abandon them now after they treated them so well last year.

Now the Patriots open as whopping 9-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 1.  That's despite the fact that they are missing their best receiver in Julian Edelman, who is out for the season after tearing his ACL in the preseason.  Tom Brady had better chemistry with Edelman than perhaps any other receiver in his career, so that's a big blow.

The Chiefs went 6-2 on the road last season.  They have gone 6-0 ATS in their last six road games overall.  They only lost 20-27 in New England in the 2015-16 playoffs.  They handed the Patriots one of their worst losses of the Belichick era with a 41-14 blowout at home in 2014 as well.  They have outgained the Patriots 821-630 in their last two meetings.

The Patriots did not fare well defensively in the preseason.  They have a lot of issues on that side of the ball.  They gave up 31 points to Jacksonville, 27 to Houston, 28 to Detroit and 40 to the New York Giants.  I know preseason doesn't mean a whole lot, but it is concerning nonetheless.

The Chiefs are the perfect team to back as a big underdog.  They have only lost 5 times by 10-plus points in 67 games under Reid.  They don't beat themselves with turnovers, and they do just enough to keep games close.  I think they'll easily stay within a touchdown of the Patriots and possibly pull off the stunner in Week 1.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

15* Tennessee/GA Tech ESPN Monday ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3

Expectations were high in Tennessee last year.  Many expected them to win the SEC East.  They won their key game against Florida, but were upset by South Carolina and Vanderbilt to really blow it down the stretch.  Now everyone is off the Tennessee bandwagon, and I think there is value with them in the early going because of it, especially as only 3-point favorites here against Georgia Tech.

Butch Jones had guided the Vols to back-to-back 9-4 seasons.  That is great at most players, but the fans want more, and Jones isn't shying away from it.  He has consistently delivered Top 10 recruiting classes over the past few seasons, so the talent is clearly there.

Now Tennessee actually has plenty of talent and experience back.  They have 14 starters back, and that doesn't even include all of the players that saw significant minutes on defense last year due to injuries.  This is a defense that returns eight of the top nine tacklers from a year ago and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Offensively, replacing QB Josh Dobbs will be tough, but he didn't meet expectations last year.  Jarrett Guarantanta is the 9th best QB recruit in the country, and Quinten Dormandy is the 19th, so Jones has some options here even if the competition goes into Week 1.  The offensive line returns four of five starters and 111 career starts and should be one of the best units in the SEC.

Georgia Tech had a surprising 9-4 season last year after going just 3-9 in 2015.  But that was a bit of a mirage.  The Yellow Jackets went 4-4 in ACC play despite getting outgained by 85.5 yards per game against conference opponents.  They went 3-1 in games decided by a TD or less.  They only gained 387 yards per game offensively while giving up 402 per game defensively.  Those aren't numbers you normally see from a 9-4 team.

The Yellow Jackets do return 16 starters this year and will be good, but they lose their best player in QB Justin Thomas. He was the best passing quarterback that Paul Johnson has ever had running the triple-option.  Now the job goes to Matthew Jordan, who only completed 33.3 percent of his passes in limited action last year.  He also only averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

Plays against any team (GEORGIA TECH) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS since 1992. The Vols have had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which is a huge advantage for facing a team like Georgia Tech.  Take Tennessee Monday.

20* Texas A&M/UCLA FOX Sunday No-Brainer on UCLA -3

The UCLA Bruins are one of my favorite bounce-back candidates of 2017.  I think they can make a serious run in the Pac-12.  They had won 9, 10, 10 and 8 games in Jim Mora's first four seasons before bottoming out at 4-8 last year.  Now they are flying under the radar heading into 2017.

UCLA had a lot go wrong last year.  They opened 3-3 and were three plays away from being 6-0.  Then star QB Josh Rosen got hurt and their season spiraled out of control.  They finished 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, which was simply bad luck.

But now Rosen is back healthy and he's among 15 returning starters, including nine on offense.  This will be one of the most improved offenses in the country after scoring just 24.9 points per game last year.  Mora has done a tremendous job in recruiting and that talent will get them back to 8-plus wins this season.

Texas A&M only had 12 starters back this season.  The Aggies lose QB Trevor Knight and four of their top five receivers from last year.  The defense loses No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, who were arguably the top DE tandem in the country.

UCLA is going to want revenge after losing a 24-31 thriller at Texas A&M last season.  The Bruins were only outgained 442 to 468 in that contest.  Now the Bruins get to host the Aggies this time around, and I think they should be closer to TD favorites than a FG here.

Texas A&M is 15-35 ATS in its last 50 games as a road dog, including 6-16 ATS in its last 22 as a road dog of 7 points or less.  UCLA is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 non-conference home games.  Plays on home teams (UCLA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UCLA Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -18

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were picked by many to be a playoff contender last year.  They fell flat on their faces and went just 4-8.  Now nobody is talking about Notre Dame heading into 2017, and those are the teams I like to back early in the season.

Notre Dame was clearly better than its 4-8 record.  The Fighting Irish went a college football-worst 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, which was simply bad luck.  With Brian Kelly on the hot season, he will have his team ready to go heading into this opener against Temple.

Conversely, Tempe is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons that nobody thought was possible outside of the folks in Philadelphia.  Matt Rhule did a tremendous job turning this program around, and he is looking to do the same at Baylor after signing a contract with them in the offseason.

The loss of Rhule is huge, but the Owls also lose a ton of personnel.  They only have 10 starters back this season after having 19 and 12 back the past two years.  They lose 4-year starting QB Phillip Walker, leading rusher Jahad Thomas, and five of their top six tacklers on defense.

This is a Temple team that went an FBS-best 12-2 against the spread in their 14 games last year.  They became a big public team down the stretch, and that memory is fresh in the minds of the public.  I think the Owls come in way overvalued here.

The Fighting Irish were in a rebuilding year last year when you look back because they only had eight starters returning.  But now they have 15 starters back in 2017.  This is a team that won 10 games when they had 16 starters back in 2015.  I think they will make a run at 10 wins again this season as this is clearly one of the most talented teams in the country.

Plays on home favorites (NOTRE DAME) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 73-35 (67.6%) ATS since 1992.  Take Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions have the feel of a 'flavor of the month' team heading into 2017.  That's because they closed last season by 9-1 in their last 10 games with their only loss to USC in the Rose Bowl by a final of 49-52 in a game they arguably should have won.  They came out of nowhere to win the Big Ten.

Now expectations are clearly high as the Nittany Lions come in ranked No. 6 in the country.  You won't be getting any discounts backing them this year, and that's evident with this opening line.  Penn State is a ridiculous 31-point favorite over Akron.

I take a look at the last couple seasons and find that Penn State has played a MAC team early in the year each of the last five seasons.  It hasn't fared very well.  The Nittany Lions beat Kent State 33-13 as 22-point favorites in 2016, Buffalo 27-14 as 17-point favorites in 2015, Akron 21-3 as 14-point favorites in 2014, Eastern Michigan 45-7 as 24-point favorites in 2013, and actually lost to Ohio 14-24 as 6-point favorites in 2012.

Akron is going to be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  The Zips went 5-7 in a rebuilding year last season with only seven returning starters.  That came after they went 8-5 in 2015 with 12 returning starters.

Terry Bowden is arguably the best coach in the MAC now.  He has done a tremendous job in recruiting some transfers from major schools like Ohio State, Miami, Pitt, Rutgers, Virginia and Nebraska.  And now Bowden has his most experienced team since he took over at Akron six years ago.

The Zips return 15 starters and 57 lettermen this year.  They are the 27th-most experienced team in the country.  Senior QB Thomas Woodson is back after completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 2,079 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions last year.  Four starters are back along the offensive line, and each of the top four tacklers and seven starters return on defense.

Woodson missed four games last year and had offseason shoulder surgery.  He is back healthy, as is running back Warren Ball, a 2016 Ohio State graduate transfer who was injured in the second game of the season and received a medical redshirt.

Penn State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 28.5 to 35 points.  Roll with Akron Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -18.5

Texas Longhorns fans are dying to get back to their winning ways.  After the failed Charlie Strong experiment, they now have new life in the form of former Houston head coach Tom Herman.  Herman guided Houston to a 22-4 record in his two years there, and now he brings in his innovative offense and a reputation as a great recruiter.

Herman steps into a great situation as Strong did not leave the cupboard bare.  The Longhorns have a whopping 17 returning starters this season.  This team was way better than their 5-7 record would indicate last season.  They went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  They lost by 18 at Oklahoma State but outgained them by 13 yards, and they lost by 22 at TCU but were only outgained by 80 yards.

This is a Texas offense that improved greatly last season to 31.9 points and 491 yards per game.  Now they have seven starters back, including QB Shane Buechele, who  got his feet wet as a freshman last year.  He completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,958 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  Buechele has his top three receivers back and four starters and 75 career starts along the offensive line.  Offensive coordinator Tim Beck replaced Herman at Ohio State and spent the last two years calling the offense for the Buckeyes.

Strong wasn't able to put his imprint on the defense during his time here, which was a huge surprise.  But now the Longhorns should have their best defense in years with 10 starters and each of the top eight tacklers back.  Herman brings defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him from Houston, where he guided two great defenses for the Cougars over the last two years.

Maryland went 6-7 last year in DJ Durkin's first season.  The six wins came against Howard, FIU, UCF, Purdue, Michigan State and Rutgers.  Only one of those teams made a bowl game, which was 6-7 UCF.  The Terrapins went 1-7 against bowl teams, and they were consistently overmatched.  They lost by 24 to Penn State, by 21 to Minnesota, by 56 to Michigan, by 59 to Ohio State and by 21 to Nebraska.  Texas is in the class of many of those teams.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* Washington/Rutgers FS1 Friday No-Brainer on Rutgers +27.5

I was big on the Washington Huskies last year.  I predicted they'd win the Pac-12 and make the four-team playoff, and they did just that.  But now they are no longer flying under the radar after their 12-2 season, and they aren't as talented as they were a year ago.  They come in ranked No. 8 in the country with the spotlight now squarely on them.

Washington goes from having 15 starters back last year to 13 this year.  They lose key players to the NFL, including WR John Ross and S Budda Baker.  Don't get me wrong, this team still has QB Jake Browning, RB Myles Gaskin and plenty of talent to win the Pac-12, but they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

I think that's evident when you look at the point spread compared to last year against Rutgers.  Washington was a 25-point home favorite over Rutgers last year, but now they are a 27.5-point road favorite this time around.  And Washington won't be as good, while Rutgers will certainly be improved.

Chris Ash enters his second season at Rutgers.  His first was a forgetful one as injuries really decimated this team.  But now they return 14 starters, add in Louisville transfer Kyle Bolin (played in 17 games at Louisville) at QB, get two stud Miami transfers at WR, and get back a healthy Janarion Grant after he missed eight games last year.  Grant may be the most talented receiver in the entire conference and is a 3-time All-Conference returner.

The biggest improvement may come from a defense that gave up 37.5 points per game last year.  This is a unit that brings back eight starters and 10 of the top 13 tacklers from a year ago.  This really should be one of the most improved teams in the country, especially from a competitive standpoint if it doesn't necessarily show up in the win column.

Washington did beat Rutgers 48-13 last year to cover that 25-point spread.  However, a look at the stats shows the game was much closer than the final score.  The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 380 to 304 in that game, or by 76 total yards.  The difference was two return touchdowns by the Huskies, one on a kickoff and one on a punt.  That's unlikely to happen again.  Rutgers also had 21 first downs to just 17 for Washington.  The Scarlet Knights turned the ball over three times as well.

It's also worth noting that the Huskies are going to be without two starting LB's in Azeem Victor and DJ Beavers, who combined for 107 tackles a year ago.  Washington is 3-12 SU in its last 15 true road openers.  The Huskies are 1-9 SU in their last 10 non-conference road games vs. Power 5 teams.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma State -17.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the most underrated teams in the country over the past decade under Mike Gundy.  They have won at least seven games in 10 straight seasons, and 9 or more games in seven of their last nine.

The Cowboys are legitimate Big 12 contenders in 2017.  They went 10-3 last year, and it should have been 11-2 because the refs robbed them of a win in the Central Michigan game.  They beat Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl and come into this season with big expectations and a lot of confidence.

Their offense will be one of the best in the country.  It's led by QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 4,091 yards with 28 touchdowns and only four interceptions last year.  Justice Hill (1,187 yards, 6 TD) is back to lead the rushing attack, as are the top two receivers in James Washington (71 receptions, 1,380 yards, 10 TD) and Jalen McCleskey (73, 812, 7 TD).

Tulsa is coming off one of the best seasons in school history at 10-3 last year.  They posted that record despite giving up 29.8 points and 426 yards per game defensively.  That defense will take another step back with only six starters back and the losses of three of their top four tacklers.

The Golden Hurricane were able to overcome those defensive deficiencies by scoring 42.5 points per game and averaging 527 yards per game offensively.  However, major regression can be expected on this side of the ball due to the massive losses at the playmaker positions.

The Golden Hurricane lose their all-time leading passer in QB Dane Evans (11,680 yards), two 1,000-yard receivers in Keevan Lucas (81, 1,180, 15 TD) and Josh Atkinson (78, 1,058, 8 TD) and leading rusher James Flanders (1,661 yards, 18 TD).  It will simply be impossible to replace that kind of production.

I think losing that early game to Central Michigan last year will have Oklahoma State more focused heading into the 2017 opener.  They won't be taking Tulsa lightly at all.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Mike Gundy is 58-33 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Bet Oklahoma State Thursday.

20* Rice/Stanford 2017 CFB Season Opener on Rice +31

This is a rare non-conference rematch from the previous season.  Rice and Stanford played each other in the final week of the regular season.  Stanford won 41-17, failing to cover as 35-point home favorites in a 24-point win.

So the Owls are already familiar with the Cardinal and only lost by 24 on the road.  Now they get to play them in their first game of 2017 and on a neutral field in Sydney, Australia this time around.  I see no reason they shouldn't be able to stay within 24 again, let alone 31, which is the spread for this rematch.

Rice is going to improved from last year's 3-9 campaign.  The Owls had a very young team and were decimated by injuries.  This year they have 15 starters back and will be mostly a junior/senior laden team.  David Bailiff is on the hot seat and he does his best work when little is expected of him.

I like the way the Owls finished the season last year, going 3-0 ATS in their final three games.  They easily could have quit after their 1-8 start, but managed to go 2-1 in those last three.  They won 22-21 at Charlotte as 12-point dogs, thumped UTEP 44-24 as 1-point home favorites, and then obviously covered as 35-point dogs in that 17-41 loss at Stanford.

Stanford is going to be a contender in the Pac-12 this season, just as they are year in and year out.  But they did lose their two best players from last year in Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas, who are both once-in-a-generation type players.  The loss of McCaffrey is absolutely huge because he provided most of their offense over the past two seasons.

Stanford plays a Big Ten style.  They will beat you up physically, but they won't blow the doors off and run up the score.  They are a ball control team, which makes it tough for them to cover massive spreads like this one.  And I think this is actually a tough spot for the Cardinal because they have their biggest game of the season against USC on deck, and they could be overlooking Rice, while also finding it hard to be focused in a foreign country here.

The Owls are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games.  Bet Rice Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Patriots UNDER 58.5

For starters, this 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That fact alone shows that there is serious value in backing the UNDER.  The betting public is a big factor in this high total because oddsmakers know that the majority are going to back the OVER.  That's why they are forced to set this total as high as they have.

But with the Super Bowl, teams get two full weeks to prepare for one another.  That is a much bigger advantage for the defenses than it is the offenses.  It also can make the offenses a little rusty to start the game, and it will be too late for them to catch up to the defenses to score enough points to top this 58.5-point total.

New England has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 15.7 points per game on the season.  I realize they faced ordinary offenses for much of the season, but they have gotten better on this side of the ball as the season has progressed.  They have allowed a total of 53 points in their last five games, an average of just 10.6 points per game.

The Falcons have an elite offense, but what gets overlooked about them is how good their defense has played down the stretch.  In fact, the Falcons have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall. The lone exceptions were the 29 given up to Kansas City in which 9 of those came from their defense and special teams. They held the Saints to 13 points at the end of three quarters before giving up 19 in garbage time in the fourth. Holding the Seahawks to 20 and the Packers to 21 in their last two games is no small feat.

New England is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the past two seasons.  The Falcons are 28-12 UNDER in their last 40 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games coming in.  Bet the UNDER in Super Bowl 51.

My Top 5 Super Bowl Prop Bets

#5: Mohamed Sanu Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-135)

My theory here is that the Patriots are going to try and take away Julio Jones and the running backs in the passing game as much as possible, which are the Falcons' biggest weapons.  That will leave Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel open to have big games.  My feeling is that Sanu will have the bigger game.  He has averaged 44 receiving yards per game on the season, so he barely has to go over his season average to cash a winning ticket.  I also like the OVER 4 receptions on Sanu.

#4: No Defensive or Special Teams TD (-200)

The Patriots and Falcons have combined for just 1 special teams TD all season.  That was Dion Lewis on a kickoff return against the Texans in the Division Round.  The Falcons haven't scored a special teams touchdown this year.  And I don't see many turnovers in this game.  Matt Ryan has only thrown 7 interceptions in 18 games, while Tom Brady has only thrown 4 interceptions in 14 games.  I'm willing to lay 2/1 odds that there won't be a defensive or special teams TD in the Super Bowl.

#3: Atlanta More Penalty Yards (-125)

This is a prop that has to do with the Patriots experience in these big games and the Falcons inexperience.  The Patriots won't make many mistakes in Tom Brady's 7th appearance in the Super Bowl.   The Falcons are likely to be antsy especially in the early going as this will be just their 2nd trip to the Super Bowl and 1st for most of their players.  The Patriots were the 5th-least penalized team in the NFL this season.  The Falcons were the 13th-least penalized team.  I think this is a very fair price having to lay only -125 that the Falcons will finish with more penalty yards than the Patriots.

#2: Yardage of Shortest TD Scored UNDER 1.5 Yards (-150)

For starters, the 58.5-point total is the highest in Super Bowl history.  That means there's expected to be a lot of points.  And with more opportunities for touchdowns, there's a good chance one of these teams scores from the 1-yard line.  Keep in mind that a pass interference penalty in the end zone puts the ball at the 1-yard line.  I think that is a very likely scenario where we get a pass interference penalty in the end zone.  And LaGarrette Blount and Devonte Freeman score a ton of touchdowns and rarely get stopped from the 1.  Blount has scored 19 touchdowns and Freeman has scored 14.  Tom Brady is one of the best in the business with the QB sneak, too.

#1: Total First Downs Made: Falcons +1 (-135)

The Falcons have the best offense in the NFL so the fact that they are an underdog to get more first downs makes no sense to me.  This is a Top-10 offense all time.  The Falcons average 34 points and 420 yards per game.  They also average 24.3 first downs per game.  The Patriots average 22.1 first downs, so the Falcons average more than 2 more first downs per game than the Pats on the season.  The way the Pats play defense, they are going to force the Falcons to try and beat them with underneath stuff.  They aren't going to let Julio Jones get over the top for big plays.  Matt Ryan will take what the defense gives him and methodically move the ball down the field while racking up first downs.  The Patriots will also have plenty of success moving the ball against the Falcons, but I think they are more likely to get big plays that will help limit their first downs.

20* Steelers/Patriots AFC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +6

The Steelers have made me a lot of money down the stretch as they’ve consistently been undervalued, and I’m not about to buck them now. I think they are once again showing great value in the AFC Championship Game as 6-point underdogs to the New England Patriots.

Pittsburgh has now gone 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Not only have the Steelers been winning on the scoreboard, they’ve been dominating the box scores as well, which is the sign of a legitimate team. They have actually outgained 11 of their last 12 opponents which dates back to their 16-27 loss to the Patriots. The only exception was against Cleveland in Week 17 where they rested their starters with nothing to play for.

And that loss to the Patriots was much closer than the final score. The Steelers outgained them 375 to 362 for the game. Keep in mind that the Steelers were playing without Ben Roethlisberger in that game, and having him back healthy is going to make all the difference in the rematch, as we’ve seen down the stretch during this nine-game winning streak.  The Patriots also had Rob Gronkowski in that game.

I think the Patriots are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL. Tom Brady is having a quality season, but he was not sharp at all against the Texans as he went 18-of-38 passing and threw two interceptions. The problem was that the Texans have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and couldn’t take advantage. The Patriots won’t have that luxury this week.

One of the most common stats out there is that the Patriots lead the NFL in scoring defense. Well, that stat is fraudulent. That’s because the Patriots faced the league’s 32nd-ranked slate of offenses in the NFL this season. They played terrible offenses all season, and didn’t have to face the Steelers with Roethlisberger when they played them. 

The only good quarterback they've faced down the stretch is Russell Wilson, and the Patriots lost to the Seahawks at home while giving up 31 points.  Wilson threw for 348 yards and three touchdowns in that game.  Roethlisberger only ranks 11th in QB rating this season, but he's actually the highest-rated passer that the Patriots will have played against all season!

Now the Patriots will be up against a Pittsburgh offense that has put up 24 or more points in nine of their last 10 games overall.  The lone exception was the 18-16 win at Kansas City last week.  But the Steelers should have scored more as they racked up 389 total yards but were held to six field goals.  They outgained the Chiefs by 162 yards in that contest and clearly should have won by more.  But the fact that the final score was close I think is also keeping the Steelers undervalued here.

One of the most underrated stats about the Steelers has been their defense, which has been dominant in the second half of the season. They have given up just 16.6 points per game during their nine-game winning streak. The difference has been inserting James Harrison into the starting lineup, and getting a healthy Bud Dupree back. The Steelers now have the best pass rush of any team left in the playoffs, which is the key to stopping the Patriots.

Pittsburgh is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 games when revenging a home loss vs. opponent. The Steelers are 56-27 ATS in their last 83 games vs. excellent passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt. Pittsburgh is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 games vs. a team with a winning percentage great than 75%. The Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games. The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* Packers/Falcons NFC ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta -4

I was on the Falcons last week and I'm on them again this week. They delivered with a 36-20 win over the Seahawks in a game they dominated. They racked up 422 total yards on the Seahawks while limiting them to just 309, outgaining them by 113 yards for the game.

The Falcons are legitimately probably the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers. They lead the NFL in yards per play differential. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.1 yards per play. They clearly have the best offense in the NFL, and it’s not really even been close.

But the promising thing about the Falcons is the fact that they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. The only exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those were scored by their defense and special teams. And they had held the Saints to 13 points through three quarters before giving up 19 points in garbage time in the fourth with the game already decided.

The Packers have been clicking offensively as well and will get their points, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They gave up 31 points and 429 yards to the Cowboys last week. They are now allowing 28.6 points per game, 393 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. The Falcons will expose this D more than it has been all season.

The first meeting this season was a 33-32 shootout in favor of the Falcons. But Atlanta played better than the final score showed. It actually held the Packers to just 331 total yards in that victory, which wouldn’t usually lead to 32 points. Matt Ryan did whatever he wanted to, completing 28 of 35 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Keep in mind that Julio Jones was banged up in that game, and Tevin Coleman didn’t even play.

The Packers are dealing with even more injuries this week.  Not only is Jordy Nelson not expected to play, but Davante Adams has a bum ankle, and Geronimo Allison has a hamstring injury.  Nelson and Adams have combined for 26 of Aaron Rodgers' 40 touchdown passes this season.  Defensively, the Packers were already missing several key players in the secondary, but now both CB Quinten Rollins and S Morgan Burnett are questionable with injuries.  Sooner or later, these injuries will catch up to them, and I think that will happen this week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – off one or more straight overs against opponent off six or more consecutive overs are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS since 1983. Atlanta is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

It’s been a great run for the Packers, but I think they’re simply out of gas now.  They don't have much left in the tank to give, especially with all the injuries.  The Falcons are rested and ready to go after getting a bye in the wild card round.  And they haven't had to do any traveling as their last road game was on December 24th.  They've basically been in Atlanta for an entire month.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys -4

The Cowboys were one of the most underrated teams in the NFL for much of the season. They went 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS and opened the season with 10 straight games without a loss against the spread. However, they then became overvalued and were great fade material down the stretch. I took advantage and went against them routinely, and they closed just 1-5 ATS in their final six games.

Because of that poor finish ATS, I believe the Cowboys are now undervalued heading into the playoffs. And while I’ve been riding the Packers religiously with a ton of success during their 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, I’m certain they are now overvalued and it’s time to fade them. This line should be closer to a touchdown in my opinion.

The Cowboys have had two weeks off to get healthy, plus they rested many starters in Week 17, so they’ll be ready to go. The Packers have gone through a grueling stretch with balls to the wall just to get in to the playoffs. And the injuries are now starting to take their toll. Both Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery, two of their biggest weapons on offense, were hurt in the win over the Giants. Nelson is doubtful this week, while Montgomery is questionable. Not to mention, the Packers have had a depleted secondary all season.

The Cowboys have the type of offense that can exploit a weak Green Bay defense. They rank 5th in the NFL in total offense at 376.7 yards per game. They are extremely balanced as they rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 149.8 yards per game, and they complete 67.3% of their passes while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt through the air. They are virtually unstoppable on offense.

That was clearly on display in their first meeting with the Packers this season. They went into Lambeau Field and won 30-16 as 5-point underdogs. They racked up 424 total yards on the suspect Packers’ defense, including 191 rushing and 233 passing. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 157 yards on 28 carries, while Dak Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns with an interception.

I think the Cowboys are going to be able to score at will against a Green Bay defense that gives up 6.1 yards per play this season, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. And the Packers have been especially poor defensively on the road, giving up 28.2 points per game, 388.6 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. They wore down in their first meeting with the Cowboys, and that’s going to happen again with the way Dallas can possess the ball, averaging nearly 32 possession minutes per game.

Dallas is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 games off a loss by 14 points or more. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) – after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 44-18 (71%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on home teams (DALLAS) – after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS since 1983. The home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +16

By no means do I think the Texans will win this game, but 16 points is a ton. I think they can stay within the number and take this game down to the wire. There are numerous reasons they should be able to be competitive, and it starts with their defense.

The Texans actually ranked No. 1 in the NFL in total defense this season. They give up just 295.5 yards per game on the season, including 220.8 yards per game in their last four contest. They have one of the most underrated secondary’s in the NFL, ranking 2nd against the pass at 201.6 yards per game. Their defensive backs stick to receivers like glue, and they’re getting a solid pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney. They certainly have what it takes to slow down Tom Brady and company.

A benching may be just what Brock Osweiler needed. He responded with one of his best games of the season against the Raiders. Osweiler finished 14 of 25 passing for 168 yards and a touchdown without an interception. By no means is he a top-tier quarterback now, but I think he can make enough plays to keep them in the game. And Lamar Miller is back healthy now, rushing for 73 yards and a score against the Raiders.

You’re going to hear this stat plenty leading up to this game. The Patriots have outscored the Texans 54-6 in their two meetings over the past two seasons. But the Texans’ defense actually played well in both games, limiting the Patriots to just 282 and 313 total yards. And they gave away the game earlier this season in a 27-0 loss by fumbling twice on special teams, turning the ball over three times in all. They actually outgained the Patriots 284-282 in that contest.

The Patriots are about as overvalued as they’ve been at any point this season. That’s because they come in to this game on a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run, including five straight covers. But the competition has been very suspect as they’ve faced the 49ers, Jets (twice), Rams, Ravens, Broncos and Dolphins. Only one of those teams made the playoffs, and that was a Miami squad that had nothing to play for against the Patriots in Week 17.

This will now be a step up in class for the Patriots against a Texans team playing their best football of the season. Houston has won four of its last five games overall with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game against Tennessee. The Texans have outgained their last four opponents by a combined 334 yards, or by an average of 83.5 yards per game.

Plays against favorites who score 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Roll with the Texans Saturday.

20* Seahawks/Falcons NFC No-Brainer on Atlanta -5

Obviously both teams are going to be motivated here. But I think the Falcons have the extra motivation after the way they lost in Seattle earlier this season, 24-26. The refs missed a pass interference call on Richard Sherman that would have set the Falcons up for a game-winning field goal. And that loss has left a sour taste in the Falcons’ mouths that they would love to wash out here.

To be honest, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFL. They rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play. They average 6.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.6 per play on defense. They are also 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.6 yards per game. This team just doesn’t get the same kind of respect as other top teams like the Cowboys and Patriots.

The Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 33.7 points per game. They are also 2nd in total offense at 415.8 yards per game. They have so many weapons this year that they are just so tough to tame. Julio Jones has been as efficient as ever, Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu are two of the most underrated receivers in the game, and Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman can both do it all rushing and receiving. Not to mention, center Alex Mack was a huge addition to this offensive line and has the boys up front playing as well as they have in a long time.

Certainly the Falcons don’t have a top defense, but they aren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they’re made out to be. They give up points and yards because opponents are consistently playing from behind. But they were much better down the stretch, giving up 19 or fewer points in four of their final six games. And the lone exceptions were the 29 points given up to the Chiefs in which 9 of those came from KC’s defense and special teams. And they allowed 32 to the Saints in the finale, but they had held them to only 13 points until fourth quarter garbage time with the game already decided.

The Seahawks were a great home team this year, but it has been a different story on the road. They are just 3-4-1 SU & 3-5 ATS in all road games this year. Their offense was abysmal on the road this season, averaging just 15.9 points per game. They lost 10-38 at Green Bay, 5-14 at Tampa Bay, 20-25 at New Orleans and 3-9 at Los Angeles. And they were fortunate to win 25-23 at San Francisco in Week 17.

Teams have been able to take advantage of the absence of Earl Thomas down the stretch. The Packers put up 38 points on the Seahawks, the Cardinals put up 34, and the 49ers even had some success with 23 points. You can just imagine what the best offense in the NFL is going to do against this Seattle defense this week. Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns on this Seattle defense in the first meeting, and that was with Thomas in the lineup.

Seattle is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 6 points or fewer last game. Atlanta is 9-2 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.  Take the Falcons Saturday.

20* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Rematch on Clemson +7

Clemson survived some scares early on in the season, and I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team. The Tigers have gone on to win their last four games in dominant fashion with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina, a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship and that 31-0 shutout of Urban Meyer and Ohio State last week. And that game against VA Tech was a 21-point game until the Hokies tacked on a few touchdowns in garbage time with the game basically decided.

Dabo Swinney is now 5-1 SU & and a perfect 6-0 ATS in his last six bowl games. All six have come in the role of the underdog. Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and ’15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year. Then they beat Meyer and Ohio State again by 31 points last week.

Now the Tigers find themselves in the role of the dog again this week and looking for revenge from that loss to Alabama last year. You could certainly argue that the Tigers outplayed the Crimson Tide in that contest and should have won. They outgained them by 77 yards and racked up 550 total yards in the loss.

Deshaun Watson had himself a day, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception, while also rushing for 73 yards.  The key play was an onside kick called by Nick Saban late that was recovered by Alabama.  Saban admitted that they couldn't stop them afterwards, which was the reason he went for the onside.  He didn't see much of a difference in giving them the ball at the 20 or the 50, because they were going to score anyways.

Alabama hasn’t faced an offense as explosive as this Clemson outfit this season. The Tigers are putting up 39.5 points, 502.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. And the defense continues to be one of the most underrated in the country, giving up only 17.1 points, 306.9 yards per game and 4.6 per play. This will be by far Alabama’s toughest test of the season, and they always tend to struggle against dual-threat quarterbacks because they play man-to-man on defense and can't account for Watson's running ability.

I think there has been a big distraction with Lane Kiffin that could hurt the Crimson Tide here. He was let go after the win over Washington, and now Steve Sarkisian will be replacing him. There could be some chemistry issues there with Sarkisian and QB Jalen Hurts. And Hurts played his worst game of the season against Washington, completing only 7-of-14 passes for 57 yards, while also rushing for only 50 yards on 19 carries. They won in spite of him, thanks in large part to another defensive touchdown, which was their 11th of the season.

It's clear that the SEC was overrated this season, while the ACC was vastly underrated.  The SEC went just 6-6 in bowl games this season.  The ACC went 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS in bowl games.  That includes big wins by Florida State over Michigan and Virginia Tech over Arkansas, and obviously Clemson's win over Ohio State.

Clemson is 8-1 ATS vs. excellent teams who outscore opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points. Swinney is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of Clemson. Swinney is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or fewer yards per play as the coach of Clemson.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* Dolphins/Steelers NFL Sunday No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -10

The Steelers have really turned it on since their four-game losing streak midseason. They have now won seven straight games while going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. They outgained nine straight opponents before resting many of their starters last week against the Browns in a meaningless contest.

The Dolphins might be the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, their record shows 10-6, but this is more like a 6-10 team when you look at the numbers. They have been outgained in five of their last six games. The Dolphins rank 29th in yardage differential on the season, getting outgained by 49.8 yards per game. Only the Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some poor company.

This game will be a complete reversal of the first time these teams played back in October. In that game, Ben Roethlisberger was banged up. Now it’s the Dolphins with a banged-up starting quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, meaning Matt Moore will get the nod in the rematch. And the Dolphins could be missing as many as six players who played in that first meeting with the Steelers who are likely to be unavailable this time around, including two safeties on defense.

This game fits one of my favorite playoff systems. It involves betting on teams who played the tougher schedule during the regular season. Wild card teams who played the tougher schedule are 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS over the last 14 seasons since the wild card system was adopted. When there is a difference of 10 or more in strength of schedule, the teams who played the tougher schedule are 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS. The Steelers played the 11th-toughest schedule this season, while the Dolphins played the 27th.

The Dolphins have one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 30th in rushing defense at 140 yards per game and dead last at 4.8 yards per carry. They allow 383 total yards per game and 5.8 per play. Look for Le’Veon Bell to have a field day against the Dolphins here. The Steelers have averaged 135 rushing yards per game in their last seven contests.  Like Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben also rested last week, so they should come in firing on all cylinders and ready to go.

While the Steelers’ offense gets all the credit, it’s the improvement from the defense that makes this team a real Super Bowl contender. The Steelers only give up 20.4 points per game this season. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in five of their last seven games overall. And I think you can throw out the Cleveland game at the end in which they gave up 24 points because they weren’t interested.

Miami is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a game where both teams score 24 or more points. Mike Tomlin is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams who allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two years. The Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff home games. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games.

Many bettors are going to see the Dolphins catching double-digits with this 10-point spread and just jump on them thinking there's value.  But there's a lot of good reasons why they are double-digit dogs.  And keep in mind, the last five double-digit favorites in the playoffs are a perfect 5-0 ATS.  These playoff teams are always focused, so you don't have to worry about letdowns.  And Pittsburgh wants its revenge from that earlier loss to Miami.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

20* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland Raiders +4

The Houston Texans won the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South for a second consecutive season. Now they are getting some big-time line respect from the books in the wild card round, and I don’t think it’s warranted. I believe there to be a lot of value here with the Raiders as 4-point underdogs.

Just think back to the regular season meeting when the Raiders were 6.5-point favorites over the Texans in Mexico City and won 27-20. There has been a 10.5-point adjustment since that night in terms of the point spread, and that fact alone shows that there is value with the Raiders.

Of course, I realize Derek Carr is now out for the season, so that makes a difference. But I don’t think it is worth as much as oddsmakers are adjusting for. And it’s not like the quarterback situation in Oakland with Connor Cook starting is that much worse off than the one in Houston.  Cook actually played well against Denver's #1 pass defense last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

The Texans are giving Brock Osweiler the start. He was benched in the Jacksonville game in Week 15 in favor of Tom Savage. Savage led them to a comeback 21-20 win, and then a 12-10 win over Cincinnati in Week 16 that clinched the division. Savage started against the Titans in Week 17, but was knocked out of the game with a concussion.

It’s well documented that Osweiler has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. He ranks 29th out of 30 quarterbacks in QBR, with only Ryan Fitzpatrick being worse.  He is completing just 59 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions while averaging a measly 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s the reason the Texans rank just 29th in total offense at 314.7 yards per game, and 29th in passing offense at 198.5 yards per game.

I think that bad showing against the Broncos on the road has the Raiders undervalued here. They were shell-shocked once McGloin got injured. But now they’ve got a full week to get ready. And this is a team that went 12-4 this season against the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. I think that is being discounted way too much here.

One of my favorite wild card round systems involves backing teams that played the tougher schedule in the Sagarin ratings. Teams that played the tougher schedule have gone 40-16 SU & 40-15-1 ATS in the wild card round in the last 14 seasons. The Raiders played the 4th-toughest schedule, while the Texans played the 18th. When there is a 10 or more SOS difference between them, the team that played the tougher schedule has gone 23-4 SU & 22-4-1 ATS, and this matchup fits that criteria.

The Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Oakland is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. Oakland is 8-1 ATS off a loss by 14 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Raiders Saturday.

20* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on USC -7

You could make the argument that USC has been the second-best team in the country over the final eight weeks of the season, and I would not disagree one bit.  The Trojans have won eight straight games coming in with seven of those victories coming by at least 13 points.  The only exception was a 21-17 win over Colorado in which they outgained the Buffaloes by 168 yards and should have won by more.

In fact, the Trojans have outgained their last eight opponents by a total of 1,463 yards, which is an average of 162 yards per game.  Their defense hasn't allowed more than 27 points in any of the eight games, including 20 or fewer six times.  And the offense has taken off ever since Sam Darnold took over.

Darnold lost his first start in a hostile environment in Utah, but played well in the defeat, and the Trojans have won eight straight since.  Darnold is already going to be among the Heisman favorites next year with what he has done this season.  He is completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 2,633 yards with 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Penn State was a team I was very high on coming into the season.  In fact, their OVER 7 wins was my favorite win total in college football, and I cashed it with ease.  But I think they are now getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  They have been winning with smoke and mirrors lately and are fortunate to have won the Big Ten with an 11-2 record.

They have won their last nine games, which started with an overtime victory over Minnesota at home.  They were lucky to beat Ohio State with a blocked FG that was returned for a touchdown as they trailed by 14 in the 4th quarter.  They should have lost to Indiana on the road, and they came back from 21 down to beat Wisconsin in the title game. It has been a great run, but it ends here in the Rose Bowl.

USC will be better at almost every position on the field in this game, and certainly more athletic at most positions.  Trace McSorley had a great freshman season for the Nittany Lions, but he's not going to be able to make big plays against this USC secondary, which is led by 1st-team All-America CB Adoree Jackson.  He won the 2016 Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back, while also averaging 30.5 yards on kickoff returns and 15.9 on punt returns with a combined four touchdowns.

We saw a Big Ten team get dominated in the Rose Bowl last season.  Iowa lost to Stanford 16-45, and I think we could see a similar beat down here.  In fact, the Big Ten is just 2-11 in its last 13 Rose Bowl appearances dating back to 2001.  Despite winning the Big Ten this season, I think Penn State is just the 4th-best team in the conference, and they would be big underdogs to both Ohio State and Michigan, and small dogs to Wisconsin.  Since I believe USC is the second-best team in the country right now, it should be laying more than a touchdown here.

It's also worth noting that Penn State has recently suspended two of its starters in WR Saeed Blacknall and LB Manny Bowen.  Blacknall missed five games due to injury, but was a valuable piece down the stretch, especially in the Big Ten Championship as he had 6 catches, 155 yards and 2 touchdowns against Wisconsin.  Bowen has started 12 of 13 games this season, recording the fourth-most tackles (68) on the team.

USC is 9-2 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 250 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Trojans are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season, winning by an average of 23 points per game.  The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last five January games.  The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six January games.  The Trojans are 4-1 straight up in their last five Rose Bowls, winning by 14, 14, 32 and 14 points.  Bet USC in the Rose Bowl.

15* Iowa/Florida Outback Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +3

The Florida Gators are one of the most overrated teams in the country. It’s amazing they are still ranked 17th heading into the bowl season with how badly they were embarrassed when they took a step up in class late in the year. They simply took advantage of a down SEC East division, but this isn’t a good team.

That was evident with a 13-31 loss to Florida State and a 16-54 loss to Alabama in their last two games. The same thing happened to the Gators last season as they were blown out by both Florida State and Alabama, and then they went on to lose to Michigan 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl.

To the Gators’ credit, no team was hit harder by injuries this season than them. They will be a little healthier now going into their bowl game, but they are still missing a ridiculous amount of starters and will be nowhere near full strength. That’s why they should not be favored in this game.

Iowa, on the other hand, comes in underrated. The Hawkeyes underachieved this season after going 12-2 last year while making the Rose Bowl. But after their 5-4 start, they played their best football of the season down the stretch. They beat Michigan 14-13 as 24-point home dogs, shut out Illinois 28-0 as 8-point road favorites and dominated Nebraska 40-10 as 3-point home favorites. They should be getting more credit from oddsmakers with the way they finished.

Both of these offenses are limited in the passing game, but Iowa can at least run the football, while Florida cannot. The Hawkeyes averaged 172 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that only gave up 157 yards per game and 4.1 per carry on average. The Gators only managed 130 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that gave up 178 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Iowa closed the season by gaining 164 yards on the ground against Michigan, 262 against Illinois and 264 against Nebraska. Florida closed the season by giving up at least 219 rushing yards in five of its last seven games overall. The Hawkeyes are going to be able to find plenty of success on the ground against this Florida defense, which is still missing several key players along the front seven due to injury.

I think the Hawkeyes will be very motivated for a victory here to end a four-game bowl losing streak, including the embarrassing 45-16 loss to Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year. And the Hawkeye fans travel as well as almost any team in the country to these bowl games, especially to warm destinations like Tampa, Florida to get out of the cold weather they’re accustomed to in winter months. It won’t be as much of a home-field advantage for Florida as most think.

Iowa is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win over the last two seasons. Florida is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 after scoring 17 points or fewer in two straight games. The Hawkeyes are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games coming in. Plays against any team (FLORIDA) – after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 59-24 (71.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Iowa in the Outback Bowl.

15* Packers/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -3

Aaron Rodgers is oh-so-close to coming through on his prediction that the Packers would run the table after their 4-6 start to the season.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS since, with their only non-cover coming against Chicago after they blew a late 17-point lead.  The other four wins have all come by 8 points or more.

I'm going to back Rodgers and company to finish the job they started.  They have all the momentum in the world right now, and I just don't think the Detroit Lions are the type of team that can stop them.  Especially with the way the Lions are playing right now.  I realize that we are paying a premium with the Packers here as 3-point road favorites, but I don't think it is going to matter.

Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now.  He has thrown 14 touchdown passes without an interception in the past six games.  He carved up a great Minnesota defense last week for 347 passing yards and four touchdowns, while adding a rushing score in the 38-25 victory.  Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in the 34-27 win over the Lions in Week 3 and has consistently torched them throughout his career.  Keep in mind the Packers led that game 31-3 before calling off the dogs.

It's a minor miracle the Lions even have a chance to win their division.  They have actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 14 of their 15 games this season, and they only have nine wins because Matthew Stafford has an NFL record eight fourth-quarter comeback victories this season.  It was obvious their luck would run out, and it clearly has.

The Lions have been thoroughly outplayed in their last two games.  They lost 6-17 to the Giants and 21-42 to the Cowboys the last two weeks.  Stafford went a combined 71-of-120 passing (59.2%) with four interceptions in his last three games overall.  This came after he suffered ligament damage to his right middle finger in the 20-17 win over Chicago three weeks ago.  He hasn't been the same since.

And Stafford is getting a lot of love lately, but he is just 4-42 in his career against teams that finished the season with a winning record.  And Rodgers should torch a Lions secondary that ranks 32nd against the pass according to Pro Football Outsiders.  The Lions have allowed 73% completions to opposing quarterbacks on the season.  They've given up 29 touchdown passes while registering just 20 sacks, so their pass rush is an issue, too.  And star CB Darius Slay missed last week's game due to injury and is questionable to return this week.

The schedule makers did the Lions no favors here, either.  The Lions had to play the Cowboys on Monday Night Football last week, while the Packers played the Vikings on Saturday.  So the Packers will essentially have two more days to get ready for this game than the Lions, who put a lot into that MNF game to try and clinch a playoff spot.  This is a very tough situation for the Lions here working on a short week with all of their injuries.

Green Bay is 9-1 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons.  Plays on road teams (GREEN BAY) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in the last two weeks of the regular season are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Packers are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 vs. NFC North opponents.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons -7

The Atlanta Falcons are re-energized now after the Seahawks were upset by the Cardinals last week.  Now all the Falcons have to do is win this week against the Saints and they'll get the No. 2 seed and first-round bye.  They will certainly be locked in and focused to finish the job that they started and to have next week off.

The Falcons are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now.  They have won their last three games by an average of 24 points per game.  They have the league's top-ranked offense at 34 points and 413 yards per game on average.  What makes those numbers so impressive is that they've faced the league's toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses played.

While the offense gets all the credit, and rightfully so, the defense is playing their best football of the season right now. The Falcons have allowed 19 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall, which is why they are blowing teams out on the regular.

I think the fact that the Saints haven't quit and have won their last two games over the Cardinals and Bucs the past two weeks is providing some line value here.  But we saw what happened earlier this season when these teams met in New Orleans.  The Falcons won that game 45-32 while racking up 442 total yards.  They can name their score on this awful Saints defense.

You could make the argument that the Falcons are the best team in the NFL.  They rank 1st in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play every time they snap the football.  The second-best mark in the league is 0.6 yards per play, which is a huge gap.

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in its previous game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. NFC South foes.  The Saints are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 17.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed me a lot last week in their 38-17 win over the Tennessee Titans.  Yes, Marcus Mariota was knocked out, but that game was over by the time he departed.  They outgained the Titans by 152 yards. What makes the win even more impressive is that the Titans needed it to keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Jaguars stepped up to the plate and denied them.

Obviously, the Jaguars should have made the switch to interim coach Doug Marrone a lot sooner.  He has previous head coaching experience in Buffalo and actually did a great job there.  The Jaguars have suffered seven losses by a TD or less this season, so they are way better than their record, but Gus Bradley just wasn't getting it done late in games.

Blake Bortles is coming off his best game of the season, and should have another huge game against this awful Colts secondary.  He completed 26-of-38 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and no picks against Tennessee.  In their 30-27 win over the Colts in London, Bortles threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns without a pick.  And the Jaguars beat the Colts 51-16 in their final meeting last year, throwing for 250 yards and three scores with zero INTs.

The Colts are in an awful spot here mentally.  They just had their dream-crushing loss to the Oakland Raiders last week, falling 25-33.  That loss officially eliminated them from the playoffs.  Now the quotes coming from the players and coaches are talking about how it was a lost season, and they are already looking ahead to next year.  They could care less about beating the Jaguars here after just getting eliminated from the playoffs last week.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a very young team with some very nice pieces moving forward.  They will relish this opportunity to pull the season sweep of their division rivals, who have dominated this division for years.  There's no question in my mind that we are getting the more motivated team.  I'm also pretty sure we are getting the better team, and that team is catching 4.5 points.

The Jaguars actually rank 12th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 8.4 yards per game.  They have been led by a defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in giving up just 317.5 yards per game.  The Colts rank 22nd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 14.0 yards per game.  Their defense ranks 28th in the NFL in giving up 377.1 yards per game.  They just allowed 459 total yards to the Raiders last week in a game they needed to win.

Indianapolis is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games when revenging a close loss by 7 points or less.  Indianapolis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Ohio State/Clemson Fiesta Bowl BAILOUT on Clemson +3.5

I would argue that this is the worst team Urban Meyer has had at Ohio State.  The Buckeyes got off to a tremendous start this season, but they have really backed their way into the four-team playoff with some fortunate victories along the way.

The Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They were lucky to survive Wisconsin in overtime, lost to Penn State as 17.5-point favorites, only beat Northwestern by 4 as 25.5-point favorites, only beat Michigan State 17-16 as 20.5-point favorites, and survived a double-OT game against Michigan 30-27 as 4.5-point favorites.

I realize the Clemson also survived some scares this season, but I think the 42-43 loss to Pitt awoke this team.  The Tigers went on to win their final three games with a 22-point win at Wake Forest, a 49-point win over rival South Carolina and a 42-35 victory over VA Tech in the ACC Championship.  However, that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tigers led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing some points in garbage time.

Urban Meyer gets massive respect from everyone, and he deserves it.  But I would put Dabo Swinney's credentials up against his and take Swinney with what he has done recently.  Most don't realize this, but Swinney 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games.  All five came in the underdog role.  
 
Clemson beat LSU and Les Miles 25-24 in 2012, Meyer and Ohio State 40-35 in 2013, blew out Oklahoma and Bob Stoops twice 40-6 and 37-17 in 2014 and '15, respectively, and gave Alabama and Nick Saban a run for its money in a 40-45 loss in the Championship Game last year.  No team has been more impressive in bowls than Clemson the past five years.

J.T. Barrett just isn't making big plays in the passing game.  The Buckeyes lack talented receivers, and they are just so predictable.  They only managed 23 points at the end of regulation against Wisconsin, 21 against Penn State, 24 against Northwestern, 17 against Michigan State and 17 at the end of regulation against Michigan.  Barrett is 25-of-54 for 210 yards in his last two games, which is under 4.0 yards per attempt.

And this is a Clemson team that is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, especially the defensively.  The Tigers have 31 more sacks than their opponents this season.  This is a defense that gives up just 18.4 points, 126 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, and 188 passing yards per game and 5.9 per attempt.

Ohio State was not strong at the line of scrimmage this year, only getting one more sack than their opponents on the season.  The Buckeyes were out-sacked by Penn State and Michigan by a combined 11 sacks, and Barrett was sacked 14 times in those two games.  Clemson is 2nd nationally in sacks this season, behind only Florida State.

Clemson boasts one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 40.2 points, 504.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  I like the fact that this team has experience in these big-game situations after falling just short last year, and they want to make amends.  Deshaun Watson also feels snubbed for finishing 2nd to Lamar Jackson in the Heisman Trophy voting.  Ohio State is a young squad with just six returning starters from last year that won't be ready for the moment.

Swinney is not only 5-0 ATS in his last five bowl games, but 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game in his career at Clemson, and also 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or fewer points per game as the coach of the Tigers.  We'll take these two never-lost systems straight to the bank Saturday.  Take Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

20* Washington/Alabama Peach Bowl No-Brainer on Washington +15

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been hearing about how great they are for a month.  Washington players have been hearing about how they have no chance.  Which team do you think will be more motivated?  It's obviously the Huskies, I fully expect them to give Alabama a game here.

Washington will be the best team that Alabama has faced this season.  You could make the case for LSU, and they were tied with Alabama in the fourth quarter.  But while Alabama has faced three teams with Top 10 defenses and one Top 10 offense this season, it hasn't faced a team with both.  The Huskies rank 6th in offense and 5th in defense in the country.

Most teams would be overrated if they led the nation in turnover margin like Washington, but that's just a staple of Chris Petersen-coached teams.  But Alabama actually led the country in defensive and special teams touchdowns, averaging more than one per game, which is unheard of.  The Huskies won't make those same colossal mistakes that others teams have made against the Crimson Tide this season.

I love getting Petersen in the underdog role.  He is 6-0 ATS as a dog in his career with extra time to prepare.  Peterson is also 5-0 all-time in Top-10 matchups.  He pulled off two outright upsets as underdogs dating back to his time at Boise State.  I trust him to come up with a game plan that will give his team the best chance of being competitive in this game.

One advantage the Huskies are going to have is in the passing game.  Jalen Hurts was inconsistent throwing the football this season, and it won't get any easier against a Huskies team that ranks 9th in pass-efficiency defense.  They can make the Crimson Tide one-dimensional here.  And the Huskies have Jake Browning, who ranks second in the Power 5 in completion percentage and TD passes on throws of at least 25 yards downfield.  He has thrown for a school-record 42 touchdowns on the season.

Washington's top four receivers average 17.2 yards per catch, and they have two studs in Dante Pettis and John Ross on the outside that can take the top off this Alabama defense.  The Crimson Tide rank 67th and 55th nationally in pass plays of more than 20 and 30 yards allowed, respectively.  Washington's offense ranks 38th and 9th in those two categories.  The Tide allowed several big passing plays against both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, which are two of the most similar offenses to this Washington outfit.

It's not like the Huskies are slouches against the run, either.  They give up just 124 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry against teams who average 176 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Petersen is 9-1 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games in all games he has coached.  The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Bet Washington in the Peach Bowl.

15* LSU/Louisville Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LSU -3

I think LSU is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Tigers were much better than an 8-4 team this season.  Their four losses came by a combined 23 points to Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama and Florida.  They had a game-winning TD called back against Auburn on the final play, were tied with Alabama in the 4th quarter, and outgained Florida by 153 yards and clearly should have won that game if not for red zone issues.

I like the fact that Ed Orgeron signed a new contract, giving this program some stability, and the players clearly love him.  One of the best defensive coordinators in the country is sticking around in Dave Aranda, and now they hired one of the best offensive minds in the nation in Matt Canada for the future, who worked wonders at Pitt this season.  Things are looking up in Baton Rouge as the players, coaches and fans are all excited for the future.

I think Aranda's defense will be extremely motivated in this game.  They have been seeing Lamar Jackson posters all week leading up to this game after he won the Heisman Trophy.  They will be hungry to shut him down, and now I feel like this is the best defense he will have faced all season.  The Tigers have the speed to make Jackson a one-dimensional passer, and that is clearly his weakness.

I love the way that LSU finished the season when it could have packed it in after that loss to Florida.  The Tigers went out an dominated Texas A&M 54-39 on the road in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  And another reason I say this is better than an 8-4 team is because seven of the eight wins came by double-digits, while all four losses came in a closing seconds.

Louisville faced a ridiculously easy schedule this season and only has beaten one team that finished the season with a winning record in Florida State.  And the Cardinals have been overvalued since that win, going just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  There have been several lackluster performances along the way.

Louisville only beat Duke 24-14 as 35-point favorites, only beat Virgina 32-25 as 32-point favorites, were actually trailing Wake Forest 12-10 in the 4th quarter, were blown out by Houston 36-10 as 17.5-point favorites, and were upset by Kentucky 38-41 as 28.5-point favorites.  With those five results, I don't know how you could possibly trust Louisville here.

I know Leonard Fournette won't play in this game, but I'm not concerned about that.  Derrius Guice is just as good, and I would argue even more explosive, as he has rushed for 1,249 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 8.0 yards per carry.  Fournette averaged 6.5 per carry this season.

And LSU is going to be able to run the football against this Louisville defense that gave up 201 yards and 6.5 per carry to Clemson and 229 yards and 5.3 per carry to Kentucky on the ground.  And the Cardinals have been sloppy with the football to say the last, ranking 108th in the country in giveaways with 31 on the season.  They have committed multiple turnovers in 10 of their 12 games, and 3-plus in eight of them.  They cannot be trusted because of it.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - good team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orgeron is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average at least 8 yards per pass attempt in all games he has coached.  I think Louisville is a one-trick pony with Jackson, and it will be at a disadvantage everywhere else on the field in this game.  Roll with LSU in the Citrus Bowl.

20* Michigan/FSU Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Florida State +7

The Michigan Wolverines had their dreams crushed with a 27-30 (OT) loss to Ohio State in the season finale that kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game, and thus out of the four-team playoff. So while most teams would be excited to be going to the Orange Bowl, the Wolverines are not.

At the same time, the Florida State Seminoles are excited to be here. They had three losses through their first eight games of the season an easily could have packed it in. Instead, they went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games and finished playing their best football of the season. They were rewarded by earning this trip to the Orange Bowl and clearly want to take advantage.

Michigan won a total of one game outside the state of Michigan this season, which was at lowly Rutgers. The Wolverines also faced only two offenses that ranked in the top 35 nationally in efficiency. One of those was a Penn State team that was clearly not as good when they played them as they are now. The other was Ohio State in the finale.

Florida State was oh-so-close to being an 11-1 team this season. The Seminoles lost on a 55-yard field goal to North Carolina on the final play of the game. They also lost in the final minutes to Clemson on a fluke penalty, and the Tigers are going to the four-team playoff.

Since October 8th, Florida State ranks 6th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Seminoles have allowed just three touchdowns in their last 42 opponent drives, and they didn’t allow a single first down in 25 of those drives. They lead the nation with 47 sacks as well. They face a Michigan offense that scored only six touchdowns in their final 38 drives while failing to gain a first down in 16 of those.

I don’t believe Michigan has faced an offense as talented and explosive as this FSU unit. The Seminoles have Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 4,319 yards and 45 touchdowns in his career, which are school records. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in eight of the past nine games. Deondre Francois is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the nation, completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,128 yards with 18 touchdowns against only six interceptions.

Florida State played the much tougher schedule this season. Eight of FSU’s 12 opponents played rank in the top 40, while only five opponents played by Michigan rank in the top 40. The betting public has been all over Michigan all season and continues to be in this Orange Bowl, but I think this is about as evenly-matched a bowl game as there is. Thus, getting a touchdown here with the Seminoles is a huge value.

Florida State is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing defenses who allow 5.75 or fewer yards per attempt over the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play over the last three years. Michigan is 26-46 ATS in its last 72 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Bet Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

15* Nebraska/Tennessee Music City Bowl Mismatch on Tennessee -6.5

The Vols come into the bowl season undervalued because they underachieved this season. And they left a bad taste in bettors’ mouths with a 34-45 loss at Vanderbilt as 7.5-point favorites in the finale. But that was a bad spot for the Vols as they had been eliminated from SEC East contention the previous week as Florida beat LSU. And the Commodores wanted that game more as they were looking for their sixth win to get bowl eligible.

I think we’ll see a big effort from the Vols here to go out on a high note. When they have been motivated, they’ve taken care of business this season. And we’ve seen the last two years that Butch Jones knows how to get his teams ready for bowl games. And Jones knows that he needs a win here to get back in the good graces of the fans.

The last two years the Vols have dominated the Big Ten in bowl games. They beat Iowa 45-28 in the 2014 TaxSlayer Bowl as 3-point favorites. Then they easily covered last year as 10-point favorites over Northwestern in a 45-6 beat down in the Outback Bowl. I think we see history repeat itself here.

There is a big gap in strength of schedule between these teams. Tennessee played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country, while Nebraska played the 64th. The Huskers started 7-0, but it was a deceptive 7-0. They should have lost to lowly Oregon, and they needed second-half comebacks to beat both Illinois and Purdue, two terrible teams. We saw what happened when the Huskers took a step up in class, losing to Ohio State and Iowa by a combined score of 102-13.

And now the Huskers are expected to be without starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who is doubtful with a hamstring injury. That means backup Ryker Fyfe will get the nod. Fyfe has struggled in limited action, completing just 49.2% of his passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt. Not to mention top wideout Jordan Westerkamp is expected to miss this game with a knee injury.

The extra bowl practices have helped the Volunteers get as healthy as they’ve been in a long time. The one player I trust the most in this game is senior QB Joshua Dobbs, who wants to end his career a winner. And Dobbs has this Tennessee offense hitting on all cylinders.

They have averaged 50.2 points over their last four games and Dobbs has had a hand in 15 of the 27 touchdowns scored. Dobbs holds the single-season rushing mark for a quarterback, and leads the SEC in touchdown passes (26), passer efficiency (152.6) and points responsible for (216). I just don’t know how Nebraska is going to keep up with Dobbs and company with a backup QB in Fyfe.

Tennessee is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. Nebraska is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 road games vs. good rushing teams who average at least 200 yards per game. Keep in mind that this will essentially be a home game for the Vols played in Nashville, which will also be a huge advantage. The Volunteers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with Tennessee in the Music City Bowl.

15* Stanford/UNC Sun Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -3.5

I know that Stanford will not have Christian McCaffrey, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. I actually think it motivates them even more because there will be a bunch of naysayers out there thinking they can’t win without him. This team is already motivated to get to 10 wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, which would be impressive considering they've played the 9th-toughest schedule in the country.

It’s not like backup Bryce Love is incapable, either. Love had 111 yards in the final regular-season game, he had 82 yards on five carries against Oregon, and a season-high 129 yards in the win at Notre Dame. He is actually averaging 7.4 yards per carry compared to 6.3 per carry for McCaffrey.

And Love is primed for a big game on the ground against a UNC defense that cannot stop the run, which is going to be the difference in this game. The Tar Heels allowed a ridiculous 236 rushing yards per game, 28 rushing touchdowns and 4.5 yards per carry this season. They were blitzed by Baylor in their bowl game last year and gave up over 600 rushing yards in the loss.

Stanford comes in playing well having won five in a row. Its offense has averaged over 543 yards per game over the past three contests. The difference was replacing Ryan Burns with sophomore Keller Chryst, who led the Cardinal to those five wins while throwing nine touchdowns and only one interception. And the Cardinal have been great in bowl games, covering six of their last seven, including winning the last two by 24 and 29 points as favorites.

Mitch Trubisky is a heck of a quarterback for the Tar Heels, but he’s more concerned about staying healthy and possibly being the top QB taken in the NFL Draft. And I don’t know how invested the Tar Heels will really be for this game after losing to rivals Duke and NC State to finish the season despite being double-digits favorites in both games. Those losses cost them a potential berth in the ACC Championship Game. ACC teams have lost five of the last six Sun Bowls.

And the strength of the Cardinal defense is the pass D, which ranks 10th in the country in pass defense efficiency. The defensive backfield was banged up early in the season but is healthy now. The Cardinal only allow 54.3% completions, 219 passing yards per game and 6.6 per attempt. So the UNC offensive strength is the strength of the Stanford D, while the UNC defensive weakness is the strength of the Stanford offense. That makes this a great matchup for the Cardinal, which is the main reason I like them here.

Stanford is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 road games vs teams who average at least 425 yards per game on offense. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS vs. poor ball control teams who possess the ball for 28 or fewer minutes per game over the last two seasons. The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last seven December games. Stanford is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Take Stanford in the Sun Bowl.