Winning Sports Picks

20* Bears/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the New England Patriots.  They are coming off three consecutive covers which were all three misleading final scores.  Now they find themselves laying nearly double-digits against the Chicago Bears Monday night.

The Patriots were 10-point underdogs at Green Bay three weeks ago and took the Packers to overtime before losing by 3.  They were outgained by 172 yards by the Packers.  They took advantage of a banged up Detroit Lions team two weeks ago and won 29-0 as 3-point home favorites.  They only outgained the Lions by 52 yards.  And last week they won 38-15 at Cleveland as 2.5-point dogs.  But they only outgained the Browns by 71 yards.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Bears.  They are coming off a very misleading 12-7 home loss to the Washington Commanders last Thursday.  They outgained the Commanders 391 to 214, or by 177 total yards.  But a muffed punt changed that game, and the Bears went 0-for-3 inside the five yard line, coming away with just 3 points on those three trips.

Chicago doesn't get blown out.  The Bears are 2-4 this season but three losses came by 8 points or fewer, including road losses to the Vikings by 7 and the Giants by 8, two teams that are a combined 11-2 this season.  I think the Bears have what it takes to hang with the Patriots, who aren't an offensive juggernaut and will struggle to cover big numbers.  The Patriots haven't been more than a 3-point favorite in any game thus far this season.

The Patriots do have the better offense, but these teams are pretty equal defensively.  Chicago allows 19.7 points per game and 341.7 yards per game, while New England allows 18.8 points per game and 337.8 yards per game.  Is New England's offense coupled with home-field advantage worth 9 points to the spread?  I don't think so.

Chicago is a great rushing team averaging 171 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry.  We saw the Patriots struggle to defend the run against the only mobile QB they faced in the Ravens.  They gave up 37 points and 188 rushing yards to Baltimore.  They also gave up 199 rushing yards to the Packers.  The Patriots rank 24th in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush this season.  They can be run on, and the Bears will have success moving the ball on the ground.

I think it's concerning for the Patriots that Mac Jones is back healthy now.  Bailey Zappe was awesome in his absence and the Patriots had something good going going 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS with him.  But Jones makes his return tonight, and he consistently makes terrible decisions with several interceptions being dropped already this season.  Jones will be rusty, and he has a lot of pressure on his shoulders.

Plays against home teams (New England) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards per attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards per attempt in two consecutive games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Chicago is also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and I like that they have extra prep time after playing last Thursday, especially with a first-year head coach.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Seahawks/Chargers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 50

Seattle ranks 29th in scoring defense at 27.2 points per game, 30th in total defense at 410.8 yards per game and 30th in allowing 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Chargers are going to put forth their best offensive performance of the season against the worst defense they have faced yet.  

The Chargers are expected to get Keenan Allen back this week, and Justin Herbert should have a monster game.  Seattle ranks 30th in allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt and has a ton of injuries in the secondary right now.  That's going to make it tough covering all these weapons for the Chargers.  Los Angeles also got good news this week with a couple starters healthy along the offensive line that they were missing last week against the Broncos.

Seattle ranks 9th in scoring offense this season at 24.3 points per game.  Geno Smith has the highest completion percentage in the NFL and some of the best weapons in the league with Lockett and Metcalf.  But the Seahawks want to run the ball, ranking 11th in rushing at 124.3 yards per game and 3rd in averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

The Seahawks are going to be able to move the football on the ground at will against the soft interior of this Chargers defense.  In fact, the Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in allowing 5.6 yards per rush attempt.  The Browns rushed for 213 yards on them two weeks ago in a 30-28 victory in a shootout.  It should be a similar result in this game in a shootout as both teams' offensive strengths are the weaknesses of these defenses.

Seattle is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games following an upset win as an underdog.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chargers last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Chargers last six games after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +6.5

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are without two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Falcons upset the 49ers 28-14 last week to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season.  They are the single-most underrated team in the NFL this season and continue to be this week as nearly touchdown underdogs to the Bengals.  They did take advantage of a banged up 49ers team, but it was impressive nonetheless.  They rushed for 168 yards and Marcus Mariota went 13-of-14 passing in the win.  They will be able to run all over this Cincinnati defense.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bengals, who have covered the spread in four consecutive games coming in.  They beat Joe Flacco and the Jets, beat a Miami team that lost starting QB Tua early, lost the Ravens and needed a last-second TD to beat the Saints and backup QB Andy Dalton last week.  They have taken advantage of facing a bunch of backup quarterbacks, and lost the only game they played against a legit team in the Ravens.  And the Bengals were actually outgained in three of those four games and only outgained the Jets by 2 yards.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Cincinnati) - after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponents that committed one or fewer turnovers in three  consecutive games are 32-6 (84.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -11

The Carolina Panthers are going to be fade material the rest of the way.  I thought they'd get a one-game boost with a new head coach and a new quarterback last week.  Well that boost only lasted for a half.  The Panthers had a 10-7 lead against the Rams, but it was all downhill from there.  They got outscored 17-0 after halftime.

WR Robbie Anderson was seen arguing with coaches on the sideline and was kicked out, eventually getting traded to the Cardinals.  The Panthers managed just 203 total yards against the Rams.  Amazingly, Christian McCaffrey had 158 of those 203 yards, accounting for 78% of their yards from scrimmage.  Now McCaffrey is mired in trade rumors and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Panthers lighten his workload so he doesn't get hurt.

They are broken on offense and down to 4th and 5th stringers in PJ Walker and Jacob Eason at quarterback.  Their defense is good, but that defense has broken in the 2nd half of three consecutive games because they get tired from being on the field too much.  They gave up 23 points in the 2nd half to the Cardinals three weeks ago.  They gave up 20 points to the 49ers in the 2nd half two weeks ago.  And last week they were outscored 17-0 by the Rams after intermission.

The Bucs are pissed off after getting upset by the Steelers as double-digit favorites last week.  They settled for four field goals including three from 30 yards and in as they struggled in the red zone.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bucs are getting healthier each week and it's a good time to 'buy low' on them off that loss.

In fact, double-digit favorites that lost outright the previous week and are now double-digit favorites in their next game are a perfect 10-0 ATS since 2009.  The Bucs have owned the Panthers the past two seasons going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with all four wins by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.8 points per game.

I expect the Bucs to pour it on in the 2nd half against a fatigued Panthers defense yet again this week and to build on their lead.  The Panthers aren't capable of getting in the back door with their putrid offense.  This one has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Bengals OVER 47

The Atlanta Falcons have an offense that teams just cannot figure out.  They rank 9th in scoring offense at 24.3 points per game behind a run-heavy attack that ranks 3rd in the NFL at 165.2 yards per game.  They are going to be able to run the ball on the Bengals, who are wtihout two of their best run stoppers in DT Tupou and DE Gunter.  The Bengals gave up 228 rushing yards to the Saints last week.  They rank 23rd in allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season.

The Bengals got their offense going last week putting up 30 points on the Saints and have now scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games.  They will be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in allowing 385.2 yards per game.  The Falcons are missing two starters at cornerback, so Joe Burrow should have a big game through the air.  The Falcons rank 31st in allowing 281.2 passing yards per game.

It is supposed to be 72 degrees in Cincinnati Sunday and only 8 MPH winds, so it's perfect conditions for a shootout.  Both defenses are susceptible to the strengths of the opposing offenses, which is exactly what I like for an OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Cowboys OVER 49

The Dallas Cowboys have the potential to be the best offense in the NFL now with Dak Prescott returning this week.  They also have both CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz healthy, and just recently got back Michael Gallup.  Prescott comes back to his full arsenal of weapons.

The Cowboys will hang a big number on the Detroit Lions, who rank last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.0 points per game.  The Lions are also last in the NFL in allowing 428.6 yards per game and last in the NFL in allowing 6.5 yards per play.  Simply put, they have the worst defense in the league.

The Lions should be able to hang with the Cowboys by matching them score for score.  They are expected to get back WR St. Brown from injury, and he was a monster before going down.  They could also get back RB Swift this week as they are coming off their bye with their offense getting healthier.  Just getting Jared Goff's favorite weapon back in St. Brown is massive.  He has 27 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season.

Even with these injuries, the Lions still rank 3rd in scoring offense at 28.0 points per game.  They are also 2nd in total offense at 411.8 yards per game.  They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, which has opened up big holes in the running game while also giving Goff the necessary time he needs to find open receivers for being a stationary QB.  Dallas does have good defensive numbers, but this will be their toughest test yet.

I think it's rare that you will see a total involving the Lions in the 40's the rest of the season, so we'll take advantage this week.  The OVER is 6-1 in Lions last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Lions last six games vs. NFC opponents.  The OVER is 21-7 in Cowboys last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Cowboys and they have combined for 50 or more points in eight of those nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -2

The Pittsburgh Panthers continue to be overvalued due to winning the ACC last year.  They are nowhere near the team they were last year.  They are 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS this season.  Their four wins have come against the four of the worst teams they played in Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Western Michigan and West Virginia.  They were fortunate to beat WVU, and they were upset as 21.5-point home favorites by Georgia Tech.

The Louisville Cardinals have lost to Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College.  The BC loss was bad, but it's worth noting star QB Malik Cunningham got injured in that game otherwise they probably would have won.  He sat out their last game and they were still able to dominate Virginia 34-17.  The 20-14 win over UCF earlier this season looks even better today.

Now Cunningham returns following a bye week and the Cardinals are going to be a dangerous team the rest of the way.  I think they are better than Pitt, thus they should be more than a 2-point favorite here.  And this will be just Pitt's second road game of the season.  Their first came at Western Michigan, one of the worst teams in the MAC.  This is a big step up in class for them and their toughest game outside of a home loss to Tennessee.

Louisville has played the 41st-ranked schedule in the country while Pitt has played the 80th.  That difference in strength of schedule is a big one.  This will also be a night game in Louisville with the defending ACC champs coming to town, so it's going to be an electric atmosphere and an even bigger home-field advantage for the Cardinals.

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Pittsburgh) - a good offensive team scoring 34 or more points per game against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) - after playing a game where 60 or more points were scored are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico +11

Fresno State is a team that has failed to meet expectations this season.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs went on to lose four consecutive games and are just 1-5 ATS this season.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.

Give the Bulldogs credit for beating San Jose State 17-10 as 7.5-point underdogs last week, but now they are overvalued as double-digit road favorites at New Mexico this week.  This offense cannot be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They have averaged just 17.0 points per game in their last four games,  and just 251.3 total yards per game in their last three games without Haener.  Backup QB Logan Fife has a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio in Haener's place.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on New Mexico after an upset 9-21 loss to rival New Mexico State as a 7-point favorite.  That was a misleading final as the Lobos actually outgained the Aggies by 44 yards and held them to 269 yards.  This is a legit New Mexico defense that will hold Fresno in check to be able to cover this inflated number.  The Lobos rank 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 329.7 yards per game.

The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They should not be double-digit road favorites here given their current state.  New Mexico upset UTEP, crushed Maine 41-0 and hung tough with Boise (17-point loss), UNLV (11-point loss) and Wyoming (13-point loss).  The only team to blow them out was LSU.  Roll with New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UTEP +4.5

I love the spot for UTEP this week.  They are coming off a bye after playing seven consecutive games to start the season.  They were playing well upsetting Boise 27-10 as 16.5-point dogs and topping Charlotte 41-35 as 3.5-point road favorites in their previous two games before running out of gas in a 31-41 loss at Louisiana Tech, which was coming off a bye.

That was one of the most misleading finals of the season as well.  UTEP racked up 501 total yards on Louisiana Tech and outgained them by 121 yards.  If they won that game like they should have, they would not be home underdogs to Florida Atlantic this week.  And what has FAU done lately to deserve this kind of respect?

The Owls are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 26 to UCF, hung tough against Purdue and a backup QB, lost by 17 at North Texas and only won 17-14 at home over Rice last week as 5-point favorites.  Keep in mind they also lost to a bad Ohio team as road favorites earlier this season.  Their three wins have come against Charlotte, FCS SE Louisiana and Rice all at home.  They are 0-3 SU on the road this season.

UTEP wants revenge from a 25-28 road loss at Florida Atlantic last season to add to their motivation.  They deserved to win that game as they outgained FAU 438 to 280, or by 158 total yards.  The spot favors the Miners off a bye, and the motivational angle with revenge favors the Miners as well.  Plus they are probably the better team this season anyway, especially when you look at how these teams are playing of late.

FAU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win, and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a victory.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.  The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.  Roll with UTEP Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on North Texas +10

North Texas has been very impressive the last three games they have played and are flying under the radar.  They have what it takes to hang with UTSA in this Conference USA showdown Saturday.  It's a great spot for them and a terrible one for UTSA.

North Texas only lost 34-44 at Memphis as 13-point dogs in what was a misleading final three games back.  They actually outgained Memphis 473 to 344 in that game, or by 139 total yards.  Two games ago they won 45-28 at home against Florida Atlantic with 481 total yards.  And last week they won 47-27 at home over Louisiana Tech with 671 total yards.

This North Texas offense can keep them in every game as they will never be out of this one.  The Mean Green are putting up 36.1 points per game, 504 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  They are also fresh and ready to go after having a bye two weeks ago.  They are quietly contenders in C-USA this season, and they will give UTSA all they want and more Saturday.

Conversely, UTSA will be playing for an 8th consecutive week to start the season.  The Roadrunners started showing signs of fatigue last week when they only beat FIU 30-10 as 33-point favorites.  Many have FIU as the single-worst FBS team in the country, right alongside UMass.  Now UTSA could easily be looking ahead to their next game against UAB, which could decide the C-USA title.  Either way, UTSA has been overvalued due to all their past success in recent seasons, going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Plays on any team (North Texas) - an excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 yards per carry or more against a poor rush defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or higher.  The Mean Green are 8-0 ATS in their last eight conference games.  North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS In their last eight games following a win.  Take North Texas Saturday.

15* UCLA/Oregon FOX ANNIHILATOR on UCLA +6.5

What more does UCLA have to do to prove they are for real?  They are 6-0 this season and just handled both Washington and Utah in their last two games.  They beat Washington 40-32 and Utah 42-32, a Utah team that many feel is the best in the Pac-12.  They racked up 502 total yards on a very good Utah defense.

I think UCLA is the better team and should not be catching nearly a touchdown against Oregon.  This game should be lined between the 3's worst case.  Oregon hasn't beaten anyone.  The Ducks are 5-1 this season with their five wins coming against Eastern Washington, Arizona, Stanford, Washington State and BYU.  When they really stepped up in class, they lost 49-3 to Georgia.  Keep in mind they were fortunate to escape with a 44-41 win over Washington State, too.

The numbers indicate the Bruins are the better team, too.  The Bruins average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by a whopping 2.2 yards per play.  Oregon averages 7.0 yards per play on offense and gives up 5.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  While still solid, those numbers don't compare to UCLA.

The Bruins have not forgotten their heartbreaking losses to the Ducks the past two seasons.  They lost 38-35 as 18.5-point dogs in 2020 and 34-31 as 1-point favorites last season.  This is the ultimate revenge game after two consecutive 3-point losses in this series.  And it's even more evidence this game should be lined closer to PK.

UCLA is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after playing a home games.  The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.  UCLA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Take UCLA Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois -2.5

Northern Illinois won the MAC last season out of nowhere.  Expectations were high this season with 18 returning starters.  Unfortunately, they haven't won the close games like they did last year and have gotten off to a 2-5 start.  Four of the five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Huskies this week.

It also hasn't helped that starting QB Rocky Lombardi has missed three of the losses due to injury.  Well, Lombardi returned last week to lead the Huskies to a dominant 39-10 upset victory at Eastern Michigan.  This offense is much more explosive with Lombardi in the lineup.  They outgained the Eagles by 184 yards in a dominant victory and their best defensive effort of the season.

Now they face an Ohio team coming off a misleading 33-14 win at Western Michigan.  The Broncos turned the ball over six times to hand the Bobcats the victory.  It's time to 'sell high' on Ohio after going 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were outgained by 286 yards by Ken State in a 7-point loss.  They gave up 478 yards to a bad Akron team two games back.  And last week they only outgained Western Michigan by 50 yards.

Ohio has one of the worst defenses in the country and cannot be trusted as a result.  The Bobcats allow 36.9 points per game, 528 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on the season.  They are allowing 109 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents typically average on offense.  Northern Illinois has at least been respectable defensively, allowing 395 yards per game this season.

Plays against home underdogs (Ohio) - with a horrible scoring defense allowing 35 or more points per game, after scoring 31 points or more in two consecutive games are 33-8 (80.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

NIU is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning record.  NIU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an upset win as an underdog by 10 or more points.  Thomas Hammock is 8-0 ATS in road games following one or more consecutive unders as the coach of NIU.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Huskies.  Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

20* Syracuse/Clemson ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 50

Clemson and Georgia Tech have two of the best defenses in the country this season.  Syracuse is off to a 6-0 start largely due to their defense.  They rank 6th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game.  They are also 8th in total defense allowing 268.8 yards per game.

Clemson is 26th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  They are also 32nd in total defense at 341.7 yards per game.  They have played some really good offenses in Wake Forest, Florida State, NC State and Louisiana Tech already.  Syracuse may be the 5th-best offense they have faced this season.  They will shut down the Orange, who haven't seen a defense nearly as good as this Clemson stop unit.

Last year, Clemson beat Syracuse 17-14 for just 31 combined points. Four of the last five meetings have seen 51 or fewer combined points. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Both teams are run-heavy which will keep the clock moving.  Syracuse runs the ball 60% of the time and averages just 65 plays per game on offense, which is one of the lowest marks in the country.  Clemson runs the ball on 53% of the time.

Dino Babers is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a conference home win as a head coach.  Syracuse is 7-0 in its last seven games UNDER off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Clemson is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  Points will be hard to come by in this battle of unbeatens.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* UAB/Western Kentucky C-USA No-Brainer on UAB ML +125

I like the spot and the matchup for the UAB Blazers and I expect them to pull off the upset over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as a result.  UAB has only played six games this season while Western Kentucky has already played seven games.  The Blazers will be the fresher team, especially with this being a short week.

These teams have a common opponent in Middle Tennessee.  UAB crush Middle Tennessee 41-14 and outgained them by 245 yards while racking up 581 total yards.  Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee 35-17 and outgained them by 152 yards while racking up 443 total yards.  It was a comfortable win for the Hilltoppers, but not as dominant as UAB.

UAB rushes for 246 yards per game and 5.9 per carry.  They are going to be able to run on this Western Kentucky defense.  They also have an efficient passing game, completing 64.7% for 206 yards per game and 9.1 yards per attempt.  And I really like this UAB defense, which holds opponents to 17.3 points per game, 320 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play this season.

Western Kentucky relies heavily on throwing the football to score points.  They average 345 passing yards per game.  Well, UAB has one of the best pass defenses in the country.  The Blazers are holding opponents to 176 passing yards per game and 5.4 per attempt, holding them to 82 passing yards per game and 1.5 per attempt less than their season averages.

UAB is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games following a conference win.  The Blazers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  UAB is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blazers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UAB on the Money Line Friday.

20* Saints/Cardinals NFC No-Brainer on New Orleans +2.5

Note: I was waiting for a +3 on the site to release this pick.  It hasn't come yet.  I did personally bet the Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings this morning.  I recommend waiting as long as you can for a +3 (-120) or better to bet this pick, but I still would bet it at +2.5 if you can't get the +3.  I expect the Saints to win this game outright.

The New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals are both 2-4 this season.  The difference is the Saints are better than their 2-4 record would indicate, while the Cardinals are just as bad as their 2-4 record and could be worse.

The Cardinals were never in the game in their four losses, a 23-point loss to the Chiefs, an 8-point loss to the Rams, trailed the Eagles 14-0 before coming on late, and their 10-point loss to the Seahawks.  The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the Cardinals didn't score a single offensive touchdown in their 19-9 defeat last week.

The two wins weren't impressive, either.  They erased a 7-point halftime deficit to beat the Panthers, who are 1-5 this season and broken.  They needed a 16-point second half comeback and help from the refs to beat the Raiders, who are 1-4.  So their two wins have come against teams that are a combined 2-9 this season.

The Cardinals are now getting love for the fact that they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension.  But they are basically trading him out for Marquise Brown, who has become Kyler Murray's favorite target and will be missed after suffering an injury against the Seahawks that will keep him out at least a month.  

Brown has 43 receptions, 485 yards and three touchdowns this season and is the security blanket for Murray.  I don't expect the chemistry to be great between Murray and Hopkins in his first game back on a short week.  This offense is still broken, and a big reason why is injuries to the offensive line and at running back as well for the Cardinals.

The Saints are 2-4 despite outgaining four of their six opponents, and the two games they got outgained were by 6 and 31 yards.  They average 382 yards per game on offense and only give up 343 yards per game on defense, actually outgaining opponents by 39 yards per game.  Despite being hampered by injuries on offense, it hasn't slowed them down one bit, and they get WR Chris Olave back this week.

The Saints put up 25 points on the Vikings, 39 points on the Seahawks and 26 points on the Bengals the last three weeks.  They have been able to run the football at will on everyone, averaging 152 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry.  Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara both rushing and receiving in this one.  Andy Dalton is proving he is still a starting-caliber QB in this league.

I know the Saints don't have the best defensive numbers yet, but they have also played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  This will be the worst offense they have faced all season outside of the Panthers, who they held to 293 total yards.  The Cardinals are managing just 19.0 points per game, 346 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.

Arizona is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games, yet it is a favorite here.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of 7 points or less.  The Saints are 43-26 ATS in their last 69 road games off a home loss.  New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Arizona is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. good rushing teams that average 5.0 or more yards per carry.  The Saints are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Plays on underdogs or PK (New Orleans) - after a game where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Saints Thursday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Georgia Tech -3

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have played the 6th-toughest schedule in the country this season.  They have been an underdog in five of six games and a dog of 17 or more four times.  They have managed to get through it at 3-3 and have covered three straight coming in.

The sign of things to come was the misleading 27-10 loss to UCF as 21-point dogs.  They outgained the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  That showed what they were capable of, and that result looks even better now after UCF went on to blow out SMU and Temple the last two weeks since.

Georgia Tech then went on the road and upset Pittsburgh 26-21 as a 21.5-point underdogs.  And last time out they could have easily let down, instead they beat Duke 23-20 (OT) as a 3.5-point dog.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  The Yellow Jackets outgained the Blue Devils 412 to 278, or by 134 total yards.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Duke.  Virginia lost 17-38 to Duke and was held to just 295 yards while getting outgained by 82 yards.  The Cavaliers went on to lose 34-17 as a home favorite to Louisville and their backup quarterback while getting outgained by 154 yards.  The Cavaliers are now 2-4 this season with their only two wins coming at home against FCS Richmond and Old Dominion (16-14).

Tony Elliott is in over his head in his first season at Virginia this year.  They have a good QB in Brennan Armstrong, but their offensive line is terrible with five new starters and he doesn't have much time to do anything.  It won't get any easier against this underrated Georgia Tech defense that is holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play that average 6.3 per play, holding them to 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.

The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Bet Georgia Tech Thursday.

20* Georgia State/App State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Georgia State +10

A lot was expected out of Georgia State after going 8-5 last season and returning 15 starters, including all of their studs on offense.  But a 2-4 start this season currently has them undervalued.  We'll take advantage and back them as 10-point underdogs to Appalachian State Wednesday night in this 'buy low' spot.

The Panthers have gotten it together of late after an 0-4 start.  They beat Army 31-14 on the road as 9-point underdogs, and followed it up with a 41-33 home win over Georgia Southern as 2.5-point favorites.  That's the same Georgia Southern team that just upset James Madison to hand the Dukes their first loss of the season.

Appalachian State is down this season and has been overvalued since that upset win over Texas A&M.  The Mountaineers are just 3-3 on the season.  They only have one win by more than 4 points this year, and that came against The Citadel as a 38.5-point favorite.  They were just upset as 19-point favorites against Texas State last time out, losing outright 36-24.

Georgia State is a great rushing team, averaging 234 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  Appalachian State has allowed 172 or more rushing yards three times this season.  The Panthers will be able to run the football on them to set up play-action.  They are also throwing for 202 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass with a dynamic offense this season.

Georgia State's defense is better than it gets credit for, too.  The Panthers have faced a brutal schedule of opposing offenses.  They give up 6.0 yards per play against team that average 6.5 yards per play, so they are actually holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  

Keep in mind Georgia State has played such a tough schedule that they were underdogs in four of five games, so they have actually met expectations at 2-4.  App State has been favored in five of six games, yet has gone just 3-3.  The Mountaineers continue to be overvalued as double-digit favorites this week.

The Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Georgia State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.  Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five conference games.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Georgia State is 7-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher.  Bet Georgia State Wednesday.

20* Broncos/Chargers ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +4.5

The Denver Broncos had massive expectations coming into the season with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  Their 2-3 start this season has them as one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL as a result.  But now we get the opportunity to 'buy low' on the Broncos, who could easily be 4-1 instead of 2-3.  It seems as though the mistakes are easily correctable.

The Broncos outgained the Colts by 69 yards last week and should have won.  They were in the red zone looking to go up 10 late to put the game away, but Wilson threw a bad INT in the end zone.  The Colts would go on to tie the game in the final seconds and win it in OT.  That was the second game they gave away this season.  They also lost 17-16 to the Seahawks despite outgaining them by 180 yards.

The Broncos have the numbers of a 4-1 team and not a 2-3 team.  They rank 18th in total offense at 343.6 yards per game and have had success running the football, they just haven't been able to turn it into points with their red zone struggles.  They rank 3rd in total defense, allowing 289.0 yards per game.  So they are outgaining teams by 54.6 yards per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.

The Chargers are 3-2 this season and 4-1 ATS thus far.  It's time to 'sell high' on them because of this start.  They are only outgaining teams by 22.2 yards per game on the season.  Their defense is a problem as they are giving up 27.2 points per game, 368.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense and 31st in yards per play allowed.  That's not the sign of an elite team.  I'll gladly back the much better defensive team in the Broncos.

Keep in mind the three wins for the Chargers were against the Raiders, Texans and Browns.  They were life and death in the 4th quarter with all three teams.  They have a problem putting teams away because of their poor defense, and that's why they can't be laying 4.5 points here.  Not having Joey Bosa really hurts them defensively, and it looks as though WR Keenan Allen will sit out again, and WR Mike Williams is also questionable.

I love the spot for the Broncos, too.  They have extended rest to recover and get ready for this game after playing last Thursday, and now get an extra day even with this being Monday Night Football.  They have a lot of guys questionable on the injury report, so this break came at the right time.  It's also extra time for them to correct their mistakes on offense, and I fully expect one of their best efforts of the season Monday night.

The Broncos would be wise to utilize their running game more.  It has been the strength of their offense, and it is the weakness of this Chargers defense.  Wilson needs to swallow his pride and trust his teammates.  The Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in four of five games this season.  They'll be up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last (32nd) in yards per carry (5.8) allowed.

This is also a great matchup for Denver's defense.  The Chargers rely heavily on Justin Herbert to move the ball through the air.  Well, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed at only 176.6 per game.  They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Denver) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that covered the spread in three of their last four games are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a classic 'buy low' spot on the Broncos and a 'sell high' spot on the Chargers based on recent results.  This line should be much closer to PK, especially when you consider the Chargers have zero home-field advantage.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* Cowboys/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas +6

Cooper Rush is now 5-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  He crushed the Commanders 25-10.  And last week, he led the 22-10 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams as 5.5-point underdogs.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 14.4 points per game, 311.4 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play allowed this season.

I have backed the Cowboys each of the last three weeks, and I'm not about to jump off the bandwagon now.  The betting public and the oddsmakers have not caught up with how good this team is, and that's the case again this week as they are catching 6 points against the Eagles.  This line should only be Philadelphia -3 according to my power rankings, so we are getting a ton of value.

A big reason I keep backing the Cowboys is their dominant defensive line.  Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks averaging 4.0 per game with 20 total in five games.  Well, the Eagles have four starters injured on the offensive line.  All four may actually play, but they will have their hands full with this Dallas defensive line.

The Cowboys have gotten back to running the football, which is when they have been at their best over the past several seasons.  They rushed for 176 yards on the Giants and 163 yards on the Rams in two of their last three victories.  The weakness of the Eagles is defending the run.  They actually rank just 25th in the NFL in allowing 5.0 yards per carry this season.  The Cowboys can continue to move the ball on the ground with Zeke and Pollard, opening up play-action for Rush and making things easier on him.  He is making all the throws he needs to for this team to keep winning.

The Eagles are having a hard time putting teams away this season.  They let the Lions come back in a 3-point victory, and they let the Cardinals come back in another 3-point victory.  They tried to let the Vikings come back, but Kirk Cousins kept turning the ball over.  The Jaguars also had a chance to tie the game late in an 8-point loss.  Their only complete performance was against the Commanders in a 24-8 victory, who are probably the worst team in the NFL.  The Eagles are grossly overvalued right now due to their 5-0 start, so it's time to 'sell high' on them.

The Cowboys own the Eagles, going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  They have won the last three meetings all by 20 points or more.  Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Cowboys are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC East opponents, including 8-0 ATS over the last two seasons.  Dallas is 11-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are 4-1 this season and should be 5-0.  Their lone loss came at Miami by 2 when they outgained the Dolphins by 285 total yards.  The Bills are the best team in the NFL this season when you look at the numbers.  They will go into Kansas City and come out with a win in a game they simply want more than the Chiefs after getting knocked out of the playoffs by them the past two seasons.

We saw the same thing happen last year.  After losing 24-38 to Kansas City in the playoffs in 2020-21, the Bills came back and won 38-20 last season in Kansas City.  Unfortunately, they did not get home-field advantage in the playoffs like they planned, and they lost 36-42 (OT) at Kansas City in the playoffs.  They believe they would have gone on to win the Super Bowl had they won that game.  So winning this game is essentially to getting home-field advantage this time around in 2022-23.

The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in total offense at 440.4 yards per game and 2nd in total defense at 260.4 yards per game, outgaining opponents by 180 yards per game, which is far and away the best mark in the league.  Buffalo is 1st in the NFL at 6.7 yards per play on offense, and 2nd in the NFL at 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.3 yards per play.  That is also far and away the best margin in the NFL this season.

You know this game means a lot to the Bills when they have been waiting to get some key players back from injury and they're 'all in' for this game now.  S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Christian Benford are all listed without injury designations.  Poyer hasn't practiced since Week 2, Edmunds missed last week's game against the Steelers, and Benford is returning from a broken hand suffered in Week 3.  The Bills have been showing off their depth without some key guys this season, which is only going to help them in the long run.  It also makes it even more impressive the numbers they have put up to this point.

The Chiefs are 4-1 this season but have been a lot less impressive.  They had two good wins over the Cardinals and Bucs, but they probably should have lost to the Chargers in a 27-24 home win, were upset on the road by the terrible Colts, and last week survived a 30-29 thriller against the Raiders at home.  That game was on Monday Night Football, so they are on a short week now making this a terrible spot for them.  Meanwhile, the Bills were blowing out the Steelers 38-3 last week, so they are still very fresh for this game.

The Chiefs have some key injuries in the secondary with CB Fenton out, CB McDuffie questionable and S Cook out.  They already cannot stop the run, and now their secondary is in shambles, which is bad news facing this Bills offense.  The Chiefs have allowed at least 20 points in ever game this season and rank 24th in scoring defense at 25.0 points per game.  Conversely, the Bills have an elite defense, which is going to be the biggest difference in this game.  

I like that the Bills held Mark Andrews to 2 receptions for 15 yards against the Ravens a few weeks ago, and they are great about taking away an opposing team's best weapon.  They will focus in on stopping Travis Kelce, who had 4 touchdowns against the Raiders Monday night.  They will make Mahomes put trust in his other receivers, which he is still trying to form chemistry with this early in the season after losing Tyreke Hill.

Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.  The Bills are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  The Bills want this game more, are the better team in the more favorable spot, and that will show Sunday.  Take the Bills.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10.5

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They fired head coach Matt Rhule after yet another loss to the 49ers on Sunday.  Teams in their first game with an interim head coach are 17-9 ATS since 2009.  They always seem to get a fresh start and come out with a big effort with their interim head coach in their first game with him.

Baker Mayfield is going to miss this game with an injury.  That's addition by subtraction.  This team has to be sick of his antics and knowing that he doesn't give them a chance to win.  In fact, Mayfield has the worst QBR of any QB through five games since Jamarcus Russell in 2005, which was the first season the QBR was invented.  QB Phillip Walker isn't the best backup, but the offense will be playing with a spring in its step with this change and it should benefit Walker getting a full week of practice to get ready.

This is more of a play against the Rams as it is a play on the Panthers.  I have successfully faded the Rams four times already this season as they are 1-4 ATS.  I did not play against them in their lone cover against the Cardinals.  So I'm 4-0 in Rams games this season, all four bets against them.  I have a great read on this team.  The Super Bowl hangover is a real thing, and the Rams are feeling the full effect of it.

It also doesn't help that the Rams cannot stay healthy.  Their offensive line is a mess due to injuries and losing a couple starters in the offseason, which is the biggest reason I have faded them the last two weeks against the 49ers and Cowboys, who both have dominant defensive lines.  Well, Carolina's strength is its defensive line, and this defense has played well as a whole this season.  

Now Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Hibgee have all popped up on the injury report as none of them practiced on Wednesday.  Matthew Stafford doesn't look right, and he certainly isn't comfortable playing behind this offensive line.  They cannot run the football, which is putting more pressure on Stafford to make plays.  They rank dead last in the NFL in averaging just 62.4 rushing yards per game.

The Rams simply continue to be overvalued week after week due to winning the Super Bowl last year.  Until the oddsmakers and betting public adjust, I'm going to keep fading this team.  They have no business being double-digit favorites even against the Panthers.  Carolina is 36-13 ATS in their last 49 games vs. poor offensive teams averaging 17 or fewer points per game.  The Rams are scoring just 16.0 points per game this season.

Plays against favorites (LA Rams) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Double-digit favorites this deep into the season that are .500 or worse are 33-52 ATS in their last 85 tries.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State -8.5

San Jose State looks like the cream of the crop in the Mountain West this season.  Remember, they won the Mountain West in 2020 before having a down 5-7 season last year.  But Brent Brennan is in his 6th season here and arguably the best head coach in the conference.  He has the Spartans back motivated to win another title in 2022.

San Jose State is off to a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their only loss came 16-24 at Auburn in which they hung right with an SEC opponent.  They proceeded to beat Western Michigan by 28, Wyoming by 17 and UNLV by 33.  That win over UNLV was no joke as the Rebels had been pretty good up to that point, and Wyoming has been playing well also.

Now the Spartans will beat up on a Fresno State team that has failed to meet expectations.  Those re-hires usually don't work unless you're Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  That has been the case here.  They lost DeBoer to Washington and brought back Jeff Tedford.  After opening with a 35-7 win over Cal Poly, the Bulldogs have lost four consecutive games and are 0-5 ATS as well.

They were at least competitive with star QB Jake Haener while he was healthy, but he was injured against USC and the Bulldogs haven't been the same since.  He's simply irreplaceable.  They lost 45-17 to USC, went on to lose 19-14 at UConn as 23-point favorites, and were blasted 40-20 at Boise State as 9-point dogs.  Both of those teams were struggling previously, and UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  San Jose State is far and away better than both teams.

Fresno State QB Logan Fife has been a disaster in Haener's place.  He has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has already thrown four interceptions.  He has also rushed for just 2 years on 20 attempts.  Fife and the Bulldogs will get nothing against this San Jose State defense, which is holding opponents to 14.0 points per game, 288 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

Hawaii transfer Chandler Cordeiro has been awesome for the Spartans.  He has thrown for 1,308 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio through five games, while also rushing for 186 yards and six scores.  He leads a San Jose State offense that is averaging 28.8 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

The Spartans won't be afraid to run up the score, either.  They lost 40-9 at home to Haener and Fresno State last year and want revenge.  San Jose State is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Spartans are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays on any team (San Jose State) - after allowing 17 points or less in three consecutive games against an opponent that is off a loss by 17 points or more are 52-22 (70.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +3.5

Clemson's 6-0 record has them overvalued while Florida State's back-to-back losses to fall to 4-2 has them undervalued this week.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on Clemson and a great time to 'buy low' on Florida State, so we have the perfect storm here to get value on the Seminoles as home underdogs.

The numbers tell me that Florida State is actually the better team this season and should not be the underdog.  The Seminoles have played the 20th-toughest schedule in the country, while Clemson has played the 75th-toughest.  That difference in strength of schedule when you compare the numbers of these teams will help you understand why I like Florida State so much in this game.

The Seminoles have elite numbers.  They are averaging 7.1 yards per play on offense and allowing just 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining teams by 2.3 yards per play on the season.  Clemson averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play.  So Florida State is a full one yard per play better than Clemson and has played a much tougher schedule.  Yards per play are the most predictable stats in football when comparing how good teams are.  The Seminoles are elite in this category.

I like the fact that this is a night game in Tallahassee Saturday night with kickoff set for 7:30 EST.  It will be a raucous atmosphere with unbeaten Clemson coming to town.  The Tigers have escaped with some narrow victories over Wake Forest and NC State up to this point.  Their luck runs out in what will be their toughest test of the season to date Saturday night.

Clemson is 1-10 ATS when the total is 49.5 to 56 points over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 14 points or less.  Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -4

This is the best team Mississippi State has had since Dak Prescott was in Starkville.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS this season with all five victories in blowout fashion by 18 points or more and their lone loss coming on the road at LSU.  That loss to LSU has had them undervalued the past two weeks and again this week.

The Bulldogs have promptly crushed Texas A&M 42-24 as 4-point home favorites and Arkansas 40-17 as 8-point home favorites.  There was nothing fluky about either of those victories.  The Bulldogs have solid numbers this season averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play on defense.

Kentucky has been overvalued since a 4-0 starts against a very soft schedule with three wins coming against Miami Ohio, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois by 8 as a 26-point favorite at home.  They lost 19-22 at Ole Miss, and then were upset 14-24 at home by a terrible South Carolina team last week.  QB Will Levis sat out that South Carolina game, and even if he returns this week he won't be 100%.

Mississippi State beat Kentucky 31-17 last season in what was a bigger blowout than the final score would even indicate.  The Bulldogs outgained the Wildcats 438 to 216, or by 222 total yards.  But Kentucky had a punt return TD in that game that made it closer than it was.  Levis threw for just 150 yards on 28 attempts with 3 interceptions in the loss.  Mississippi State QB Will Rogers lit up the Wildcats, completing 36-of-39 passes for 344 yards and a touchdown in the win.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season as the Bulldogs have gotten better in the offseason, while the Wildcats have gotten worse.

Kentucky is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after having won four or five of its last six games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Mississippi State) - off a conference home win, with four or more returning starters than their opponent are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on James Madison -11.5

James Madison is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It takes oddsmakers a lot of time to catch up to how good teams are in college football, and conversely how bad they are based on preseason expectations.  Nothing was expected of the Dukes in their first season as an FBS school coming up from the FCS.

But the Dukes are quickly showing they are the best team in the Sun Belt and honestly one of the better teams in college football.  They aren't just winning, they are dominating.  The Dukes are scoring 44.2 points per game, averaging 489 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense.  They are allowing 15.0 points per game, 233 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoirng opponents by 29.2 points per game and outgaining them by 256 yards per game and 2.3 yards per play.

Georgia Southern is also improved this season under first-year head coach Clay Helton.  They even pulled the 45-42 upset at Nebraska.  They are 3-3 this season with losses to UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State.  They have a very good offense that is putting up 37.0 points per game, 492 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  So they can hang with the Dukes offensively.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, they aren't going to get any stops defensively.  They allow 30.3 points per game 457 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play against teams that average 26.8 points per game, 403 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  James Madison has the best defense that Georgia Southern has faced this season by far, and Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses that the Dukes will have faces this season.

The key handicap here is Georgia Southern's inability to stop James Madison's potent rushing attack.  The Dukes average 215 rushing yards per game, but they also have balance with 274 passing yards per game.  Georgia Southern allows 227 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season.  You can't simply fix a poor run defense in one week.  Conversely, James Madison only allows 46 rushing yards per game and 1.6 yards per carry this season.  The Dukes will be able to extend their lead in the second half by being able to run the football at will.  Roll with James Madison Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin -7.5

A coaching change was just what the doctor ordered at Wisconsin.  Paul Chryst has been failing to meet expectations for several years now with the Badgers only making the Big Ten title game once the past four seasons despite playing in the easy West Division.  Players are clearly happy to move on to defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, a former Badger who was in line to be their next head coach anyway.

Boy did the players ever respond.  After falling 34-10 at home to Illinois that led to the firing of Chryst, the Badgers responded with a 42-7 trouncing of Northwestern last week.  That was a Northwestern team that had only lost by 10 at Penn State in their previous game.  The defense was as dominant as usual, and the offense had the biggest boost with a whopping 515 total yards.  Graham Mertz must be freed up the most, having a career game with 299 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in the win.

Now the Badgers will stomp a Michigan State team that has been overvalued this season due to going 11-2 last season.  The Spartans are a far cry from that team this season.  Signing Mel Tucker to a new contract was not the right move.  He has lost this team after a 2-0 start with wins over lowly Western Michigan and Akron.

The Spartans proceeded to go 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and haven't even been competitive.  They lost 28-39 at Washington and gave up 503 total yards.  They lost 7-34 at home to Minnesota and gave up 508 total yards.  They lost 27-13 at Maryland and allowed 489 total yards.  And last week they lost 20-49 at home to Ohio State and gave up 614 total yards.  They were outgained by 412 total yards by the Buckeyes in what was an even bigger blowout than 29-point loss showed.

So we have two teams headed in opposite directions here.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Badgers after their disappointing 3-3 start.  They are a much better team than they have shown and have a high ceiling now with Leonhard at the helm and the talent on this roster.  I don't see it getting better for the Spartans any time soon because they cannot stop anyone defensively, and they only rush for 109 yards per game on offense so they have no balance, putting a ton of pressure on QB Payton Thorne that he cannot handle.

The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Wisconsin is a similar team to Minnesota, and I expect this to be similar to the 34-7 victory the Gophers had at Michigan State earlier this season.  Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.

15* Alabama/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee +7.5

What more does Tennessee have to do to prove they are for real?  They will this week when they give Alabama a run for its money and likely pull off the upset.  It will be one of the best atmospheres in Tennessee ever for this game, so the Vols are going to have a huge home-field advantage.  The Vols are 5-0 and legit national title contenders.

I was on Tennessee last week when they blasted LSU 40-13 on the road as 2.5-point favorites.  They were coming off a bye, so they will still be fresh for this game against the Crimson Tide.  The Vols are elite on both sides of the football.  While the offense gets all the attention, it's the underrated defense that makes them title contenders and gives them a shot to pull off this upset.

Indeed, the Vols are only allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 11.6 points per game and 0.7 yards per play less than their season averages.  They are scoring 46.8 points per game and averaging 7.2 yards per play, scoring 18.4 points per game and averaging 1.5 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

So they are outgaining teams by 2.0 yards per play on the season, which is elite.  The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 41-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  He will keep the Vols in this game for four quarters.

Alabama has escaped with a couple victories at Texas 20-19 and at home against Texas A&M 24-20.  They are fortunate to be 6-0.  I know Bryce Young is likely back at QB this week, but he won't be 100% with the AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.  Even if he was 100%, the Vols could hang just as Texas did with Young in there.

Alabama rushes for 258 yards per game this season.  To be able to hang with Alabama, you have to be able to stop the run.  Tennessee is up to the challenge.  The Vols only allow 89 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt, holding opponents to 71 yards per game and 1.8 per attempt less than their season averages.

Plays against road favorites (Alabama) - after one or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off three or more consecutive wins are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a passing of the torch moment and Tennessee's best chance to beat Alabama since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +17

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Texas Longhorns off their 49-0 dismantling of Oklahoma.  They will be feeling fat and happy after ending their four-game losing streak to their biggest rivals in the Sooners.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Iowa State this week, and they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for because of it.

Keep in mind everyone is dominating Oklahoma right now.  Kansas State upset them on the road.  Dillon Gabriel got hurt against TCU when they were already getting blasted and eventually lost 55-24.  That's the same TCU team that should have lost to Kansas last week.  The Longhorns beat Oklahoma without Gabriel, and somehow the Sooners don't have a capable backup quarterback.

It's also an 'Oklahoma sandwich' for the Longhorns with Oklahoma State on deck next week.  That game could decide the Big 12 title.  In the meantime the Longhorns have to face a pesky Iowa State team that could easily be 6-0 right now instead of 3-3.  But because of that poor record, it's time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones off three consecutive defeats.

Iowa State's losing streak started with a 31-24 home loss to Baylor, which may be the best team in the Big 12.  It continued with a 14-11 loss at Kansas in which the Cyclones outgained the Jayhawks 313 to 213 but missed three field goals and should have won.  And last week they lost 10-9 to Kansas State at home.  Kansas State's only touchdown came on a broken play early, and the Cyclones shut them down the rest the way.

Iowa State's elite defense can keep them in this game.  The Cyclones only allow 13.7 points, per game, 278 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that normally average 27.3 points per game, 381 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They are holding opponents to 13.6 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play less than their season averages.  They'll come up with a game plan to slow down Ewers and this Texas offense.

Iowa State is not an easy team to blow out.  In fact, the Cyclones have only lost by more than 17 points once in their 70 games over the past six seasons, and that was a 33-9 loss to Notre Dame in the 2019 Camping World Bowl.  That makes for a 69-1 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 17-point spread.  Enough said.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Commanders/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago ML +107

The Chicago Bears have played a brutal schedule and have made a good account of themselves in the early going.  They upset the 49ers and lost to the Packers, Giants and Vikings and were competitive in two of those three defeats.  They also beat Houston.  Now they get to take another step down in class here against a team that is on Houston's level in the Washington Commanders.

The Commanders are falling off the rails.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall since an opening home win over the Jaguars in comeback fashion.  They lost by 9 at Detroit, by 16 at home to Philadelphia, by 15 at Dallas and by 4 at home to Tennessee.  They have played the much easier schedule and have gotten through at 1-4.

The Commanders have had to rely on Carson Wentz too much because they cannot run the football.  And Wentz cannot be trusted as he is a turnover waiting to happen.  The Commanders rank 28th in the league rushing for just 89.0 yards per game.  Compare that to the Bears, who rank 5th in rushing at 157.4 yards per game, and it's easy to see why I'm on Chicago here.

There are expected to be 15 MPH winds inside Soldier Field in Chicago Thursday night.  That means it's going to be difficult to throw the football, and that will especially be the case for Wentz, who doesn't have the strongest arm.  That wind will lead to more mistakes by the Commanders, while a conservative, run-heavy approach for the Bears will be just what the doctor ordered.

The Bears are 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS at home this season.  Chicago is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive road losses.  The Bears are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now with only six players on the injury report and almost none of them significant.  The Commanders have 18 players on the injury report and many significant, including Wentz, William Jackson, Logan Thomas, Johan Dotson and Chase Young with the latter four all out.

Plays on underdogs or PK (Chicago) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 46-12 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Bears on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Baylor/West Virginia FS1 No-Brainer on Baylor -3

The numbers show the Baylor Bears are the way better team in this matchup.  That's why I'm willing to lay the -3 on the road with them despite the fact that Morgantown is usually a tough place to play and I'm normally looking to back the Mountaineers at home.  I think the Bears get the job done by more than a field goal Thursday night.

Baylor and West Virginia have played similar strength of schedules, so the numbers tell the story pretty accurately here.  Baylor is outscoring opponents 37.4 to 20.6 on average this season, while West Virginia is only outscoring foes 38.2 to 29.6 on average.  The more telling stats are yards per play.  Baylor averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 on defense, outgaining teams by 1.6 yards per play.  WVU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.7 on defense, only outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.

West Virginia was just blasted 38-20 at Texas in its last game.  That was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as it was 35-7 entering the 4th quarter.  The Mountaineers scored a couple garbage time touchdowns.  They also lost arguably their best weapon on offense in RB CJ Donaldson to a concussion, and he will be out Thursday.  He has rushed for 389 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.9 per carry.  His backup Mathis Jr. only averages 4.2 yards per carry, so it's a big downgrade.

Baylor could easily be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2.  The Bears blew the game in OT in a 26-20 loss at BYU.  They played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 25-36 final would indicate.  Baylor had 457 total yards against Oklahoma State and held the Cowboys to a season-low 379 yards.  But they gave up 9 points on a kickoff return and a safety that was the difference.  If they were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they would be bigger favorites.

Baylor blasted West Virginia 45-20 at home last season.  The Bears had 525 total yards and allowed 362 to the Mountaineers, outgaining them by 163 yards.  The key to this victory will be Baylor winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Baylor only allows 2.8 yards per carry this season, and now WVU won't have the threat of a running game without Donaldson.  WVU QB JT Daniels is going to be under pressure the entire game.

The Bears are 20-4-2 ATS int heir last 26 games following an ATS loss.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51

This one is as simply as it gets.  When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.

The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31.  Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat.  They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1.  It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit.  He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.

The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders.  It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games.  They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point.  They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.

The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time.  The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game.  Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.

 Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks.  You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks?  The 49ers.  Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week.  Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.

The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford.  The Cowboys will do the same.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason.  Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton.  G Edwards is questionable for this one.  Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything.  Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson.  WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.

There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well.  They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona.  But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season.  They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco.  They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog.  They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB.  This line should be much closer to PK than -6.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage.  There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point.  They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.

The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play.  They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.

Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters.  They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory.  They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.

In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive.  They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3.  It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week.  Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack.  And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.

This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either.  The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is.  To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.

Arizona has zero home-field advantage.  In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games.  Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards.  Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5

The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score.  I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.

The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings.  This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play.  They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.

After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries.  These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have an elite offense and a suspect defense.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.  They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed.

I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively.  But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense.  They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week.  They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward.

The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total.  They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings.  The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3

If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.  But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover.

Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win.  They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win.  They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them.  And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles.  So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers.

Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game.  Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks.  The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season.  And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense.

The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans.  But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter.  They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover.  Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season.

When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost.  They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD.  They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now.  They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home.  They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable.

While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns.  They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans.  Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers.  Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  

Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game.  That's a good sign he will be able to play this week.  And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week.  If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost.  The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +13

The Arizona Wildcats were much more competitive than their 1-11 record would indicate last season.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are off to a 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS start despite being underdogs in four of five games.  They pulled the upsets over San Diego State and North Dakota State with their only losses coming to Mississippi State and California in games they were competitive deep into the 2nd half.

Now they take on Oregon, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games against a pretty soft schedule with three home wins and a fortunate 44-41 win at Washington State.  Their other road game resulted in a 49-3 loss to Georgia.  They have a big home/away discrepancy.

Arizona lost 41-19 at Oregon last year in what was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  Arizona actually outgained Oregon 435 to 393 in that game, but gave it away by being -5 in turnovers.  The Wildcats are vastly improved this season, and a big part of that is Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score.  He can keep the Wildcats in this game for four quarters.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 yards per play or more in two consecutive games are 80-32 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oregon is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Oregon.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +17.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Army.  They are off to a disappointing 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start against a tough schedule.  They have played arguably the best team in the Sun Belt in Coastal Carolina and lost by 10.  They also lost to arguably the best team in Conference USA in UTA by 3.  Their 14-31 loss to Georgia State last week as a 9-point favorite is what is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on them.  They rushed for 354 yards in that game, but gave the game away by committing three turnovers.

Wake Forest is in a massive letdown spot.  The Demon Deacons are coming off three straight hard-fought games.  They were nearly upset by Liberty in a 37-36 win.  They were probably looking ahead to Clemson, who they lost to 45-51 in double-OT.  They bounced back last week with a 31-21 upset win at Florida State.  I just don't think the Demon Deacons have much left in the tank.  They really needed a bye this week, but instead they will have to face Army's triple-option, which isn't fun to prepare for let alone face.

Last year, Army kept Pace with Wake Forest in a 70-56 home loss as 3-point underdogs.  Both teams have similar returning starters, but now Wake Forest is a 17.5-point favorite in the rematch, a 14.5-point adjustment.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons after a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  This is the spot they let down similar to when they nearly let Liberty beat them three weeks ago at home.

Jeff Monken is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights have played 29 games over the past three seasons.  They've only lost once by more than 17 points.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the Black Knights pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Take Army Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  They are coming off two losses to Baylor and Kansas by a combined 10 points in which they arguably could have won both.  Look for them to give an 'A' effort here to try and avoid a three-game losing streak.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on Kansas State.  They are coming off two straight wins and covers against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  Of course, that win over Oklahoma doesn't look nearly as good after the Sooners were just blasted 55-24 by TCU last week.  And Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and they only won by 37-28 at home despite forcing four turnovers.

I love the matchup for the Cyclones.  They rank 7th in the country against the run, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  Kansas State relies on moving the football on ground, averaging 267 rushing yards per game compared to only 139 passing yards.

Adrian Martinez is beating teams with his legs rather than his arm.  Well, we saw what Iowa State did to Kansas last week.  Nobody had been able to stop Kansas dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels up to that point.  Iowa State held him to just 9 rushing yards on 8 carries, and 7-of-14 passing for 93 yards.  And he's a better passer than Martinez.  The Cyclones held that high-powered Kansas offense to just 213 total yards and 10 first downs.  They would have won the game if not for 3 missed field goals.  They will hold Martinez in check this week as well.

Kansas State may have the slightly better offense than Iowa State, but it's close.  There's no debate that Iowa State has the better defense.  They are holding teams to 256 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season, while K-State is allowing 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  So I'm getting the better defense as a home underdog in what is a home run spot where they need this win like blood to avoid their third consecutive defeat.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings after winning 33-20 on the road last year and 45-0 at home in 2020.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -3

I love the spot for Louisiana Tech.  They are coming off a bye week after a 1-3 start this season.  They have played a brutal schedule with their three losses all coming on the road to Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama, while they crushed Stephen F. Austin 52-17 as 6.5-point favorites in their lone home game.  

The bye came at a great time after this brutal schedule so they can regroup and get ready for conference play.  Byes also tend to benefit teams more with a first-year head coach like the Bulldogs have in Sonny Cumbie.  Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Bulldogs as they have committed 12 in those three road losses.  Look for them to focus on ball security in practice for two weeks, and to come out with a big effort here Saturday night as they take a big step down in class against UTEP.

This is a terrible spot for the Miners.  They are a tired team right now as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season.  They are in a letdown spot after upsetting Boise State 27-10 at home followed by a 41-35 win as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte last week.  That shootout win will have taken a lot out of them.  Now they have to travel back to the Eastern Time Zone for a 2nd consecutive week, just amplifying their fatigue factor.

Keep in mind this UTEP team also has bad losses to North Texas 31-13 and New Mexico 27-10.  They have played the easier strength of schedule with their other win coming against New Mexico State.  Their numbers are not very good as they average 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally average giving up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They average 20.7 points per game against teams that normally allow 30.2 points per game.  

To compare, LA Tech is actually averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense against teams that normally give up only 5.5 per play on defense.  Look for them to have one of their best offensive performances of the season this week similar to what they had against Stephen F. Austin when they scored 52 points and had 515 total yards against a quality FCS opponent.

LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  UTEP is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5

East Carolina is better than Tulane, period.  The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week.  They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning.  They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards.

This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable.  But it's not going to matter.  The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result.

East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0.  They have outgained all five opponents this season.  That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated.  They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule.

East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air.  Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score.

East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort.  Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score.  The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less.  Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave get exposed this week.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28

Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff.  Making the playoff has them overvalued this season.  No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week.

Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite.  They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB.  They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final.  And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory.

I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites.  However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early.  And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs.  If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati.

USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective.  Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings.  In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season.  

Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again.  I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU.  ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play.  Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry.  They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma.  That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues.  Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there.  But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks.

The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game.  That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59

Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points.  The books have missed their mark badly with this one.  The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense.  Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out.

The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week.  That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern.  This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.

Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing.  They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.

These teams combined for just 36 points last season.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5

I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida.  Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team.  And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season.  They are legitimate SEC title contenders.

The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final.

I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention.  They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico.  The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that.

But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming.  That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home.  They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards.  Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0.  That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU.

Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go.  Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week.  I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's.

The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country.  There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14.  They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico.

Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores.  It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game.

The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well.  They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC.  They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one.

I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season.  They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites.  They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB.  They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld.

A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat.  I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved.  These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers.  UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.  This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7.

Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3

The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season.  They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4.  They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter.  The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL.  They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2.  The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards.  And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans.

Now it gets worse for the Colts.  They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans.  It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%.  They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game.  I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games.

The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players.  I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown.  They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss.  They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now.  They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did.  Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week.

I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward.  They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play.  Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet.

Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Broncos Thursday.

20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3

The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them.  After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents.  Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country.

SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game.  They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards.  That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home.

SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog.  The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards.  That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog.

UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite.  THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home.  But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading.  The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards.  They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense.

SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite.  They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards.  Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later.  Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well.

SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow.  SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1  yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense.

UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0.  Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams.  We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team.

The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost.  They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7.  And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now.

The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play.  They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game.  I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy.

Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance.  But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm.  I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt.

The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now.  The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won.  Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10.

The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites.  And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12.  Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game.  Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker.  The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022.

The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year.  So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.  They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams.

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins.  San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Roll with the 49ers Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120

The Arizona Cardinals are broken.  They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3.  They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Raiders are 0-3 on the season.  They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win.  And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.

Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals.  DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense.  He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.

Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.  And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.

The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.  They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense.  This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.

The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits!  That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently.  No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans.

I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week.  And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week.  They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week.  They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week.  They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week.  As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective.

The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle.  All three of their games have been decided by one score this season.  If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process.

I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense.  The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs.  They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week.  Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents.  Take the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3

Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat the Bengals in Week 2.  And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games.

Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks.  That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders.  Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss.

The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game.  They couldn't do anything until garbage time.  Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion.  He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented.  And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

This Washington defense isn't any good, either.  The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense.  There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team.

This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way.  The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important.  Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing.

The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes.  Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it.  Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week.

That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars.  Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson.  They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games.  They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games.

Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks.  Pederson is a big reason why.  Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit.  Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line.  Pederson is working his magic with this offense.

Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season.  They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense.  They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season.  I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week.

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140

The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South.  Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going.  I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons.

QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game.  Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries.  All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report.

The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy.  Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before.  The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before.  The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable.  They are remarkably healthy.

The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC.  They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener.  I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone.  And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC.  They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week.

I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad.  Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football.  New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +23

It's time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets after a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule and some misleading results mixed in.  The three losses have come to Clemson, Ole Miss and UCF as the Yellow Jackets have played the 8th-toughest schedule in the country.

They were in a dog fight with Clemson in the opener in what was a 14-10 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Tigers scored 27 unanswered points to finish, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes.  They were only outgained by 141 yards by the Tigers.

Last week, Georgia Tech lost 27-10 at UCF despite outgaining the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  They arguably should have pulled the outright upset as 21-point dogs, but lost by 17.  These misleading finals and difficult schedule have the Yellow Jackets undervalued.

I was looking to fade Pitt coming into the season with all they lost in the offseason.  The Panthers were overvalued after winning the ACC last year.  They lost QB Kenny Pickett and star receiver Jordan Addison.  Those players have proven to be irreplaceable as Kedon Slovis is a big downgrade at QB.

Pitt is 3-1 but should be 2-2.  They lost to Tennessee in OT, and they beat WVU by 7 only after a fluky pick-6 to go ahead in the final minutes.  The other two wins came against overmatched Western Michigan and Rhode Island teams.  The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS this season and have proven to be good fade material, and I expect them to continue to be good fade material in this spot this week.

Georgia Tech's numbers are pretty good.  They average 0.1 yards per play less on offense than their opponents give up on average (5.1 to 5.2), and they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average (5.5 to 6.1).  Pitt is averaging only 0.1 yards per play more on offense than their opponents give up on average, and holding opponents to 0.8 yards per play less than their season average.

Plays on road teams (Georgia Tech) - off one or more consecutive unders, a poor offensive team that is scoring 17 or fewer points per game are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They only beat Rhode Island by 21 as 34.5-point favorites in their last home games.  The Yellow Jackets can easily stay within 21 as well.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

It's no surprise that the LSU Tigers are improving rapidly as the season goes on under first-head head coach Brian Kelly, who is one of the best in the country.  The 23-24 loss to Florida State in the opener doesn't look that bad now when we've seen what the Seminoles have done since.

LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since with a 65-17 win over Southern, a 31-16 win over a very good Mississippi State team outright as underdogs, and a 38-0 win over New Mexico as 31-point favorites.  The injuries have gone LSU's way leading into this game.

QB Jayden Daniels left in the 3rd quarter with a lower back injury against New Mexico.  He didn't return despite being cleared, and it was more for precautionary reasons with the game already in hand.  He should be playing this week.  Starting nickel Jay Ward missed last game but returned to practice this week.  RB Armoni Goodwin is day-to-day but likely to play as well.  Edge rusher BJ Ojulari was held out against the Lobos as a precaution.

While LSU is a team I want shares of moving forward, I want to sell all my Auburn stock.  Brian Harsin is on the hot seat and I'm be surprised if he survives the season after going 6-7 year.  The Tigers should be 2-2 as they were gifted a win last week by Missouri.  Missouri missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled going into the end zone for the game winning score in OT.  Auburn did everything in their power to give Missouri the game.

That came after an ugly 12-41 home loss to Penn State.  LSU is better than Penn State, and I think it will be a similar blowout.  Auburn barely beat San Jose State 24-16 the week prior as 24-point favorites, and failed to cover against Mercer in a 42-16 win as 30-point favorites in the opener.  Auburn is now 0-4 ATS this season and about to fall to 0-5 ATS this week.

Making matters worse for Auburn is that they are going to be without starting QB TJ Finley this week.  Backup Zach Calzada is out with injury as well, and third-string freshman Robby Ashford has not been good.  He has completed just 27-of-47 passes for 372 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while playing in parts of all four games.

Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  Plays on road teams (LSU) - allowing 200 or fewer total yards per game in their last two games, with an experienced QB vs. an opponent with an inexperienced QB are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1992.  Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet LSU Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Troy +5.5

I was high on Troy coming into the season and they have delivered.  The Trojans returned 18 starters this season.  They opened with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss as 21.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 87 yards.  Ole Miss appears to be one of the best teams in the country.  They followed it up with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.

They should be 3-1, losing 32-28 at Appalachian State on a fluke hail mary on the final play of the game as 14-point underdogs.  App State is the king of the Sun Belt, so the fact that they should have beaten them says all you need to know.  And had they beaten them, they certainly would not be 5.5-point underdogs this week.

I was impressed with how Troy got back up off the mat and upset Marshall 16-7 as 3.5-point underdogs last week.  That's the same Marshall team that had upset Notre Dame on the road earlier this season.  The Trojans dominated more than the final score would suggest, too.  They outgained Marshall 421 to 174, or by 247 total yards and should have won by more even.

Troy has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt and a much improved offense this season led by Gunnar Watson, who is averaging 312 passing yards per game and completing 66.4% of his passes despite the tough competition.  He and the Trojans have done this against the 43rd-ranked schedule in the country.

You know who hasn't played a tough schedule? That's Western Kentucky.  They have played the 175th-ranked schedule in the country.  They are getting too much respect for their 3-1 start with the three wins coming against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay.  FIU and Hawaii may be the two worst teams in FBS, and Austin Peay is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They did play Indiana tough in their lone loss, but Indiana isn't very good this year, either.

I was down on Western Kentucky coming into the season because they only returned 11 starters and lost all of their top playmakers from last season.  They lost QB Bailey Zappe and his 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, plus his top two receivers in Sterns and Tinsley who combined for 3,304 yards and 31 touchdowns last year.  The offensive numbers are gaudy again this season, but that's more due to the lack of competition.  It's time to 'sell high' on this WKU team off that 73-0 win over FIU.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WKU) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. Sun Belt foes.  I'll gladly take Sun Belt over C-USA in this matchup as I strongly believe the Trojans are the better, more complete team.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/North Texas OVER 67.5

Expect some offensive fireworks between Florida Atlantic and North Texas Saturday and little defense being played.  These are two of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and that's going to help us cash this OVER 67.5 ticket.

North Texas is scoring 32.2 points per game, averaging 475 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season while running 74 plays per game.  FAU is scoring 32.6 points per game, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while running 73 plays per game.

Both defenses can be had, especially North Texas.  The Mean Green are allowing 38.0 points per game, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while defending 74 plays per game.  The Owls are allowing 26.2 points per game, 402 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play and 68 plays per game against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play, so they have a below average defense and haven't faced many good offenses.  They even got to play Purdue last week without their starting QB.

North Texas is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Mean Green last six games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas +3

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke last week, a Blue Devils team that was 3-0 coming into that game.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 48.5 points per game, 472.5 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 400 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.3 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They are also completing 71.3% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Despite the 4-0 start against solid competition, Kansas is unranked.  I think the Jayhawks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder again this week because of it.  They won't have a letdown because they want that respect and to avenge a blowout loss at Iowa State last year.  This is an Iowa State team that isn't nearly as talented as they were last season.

The Cyclones are 3-1 but the three wins came against three terrible teams in SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio.  They met their match last week with a 24-31 home loss to Baylor.  And now this will be their toughest road test of the season against a Kansas team that fans are excited about, selling out last week against Duke.  It will be another sellout Saturday against the Cyclones.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75% over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and covering by 18.1 points per game.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +26.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats.  After opening the season with a 31-28 upset win as 10.5-point dogs to Nebraska in the opener, the Wildcats have promptly gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all as favorites.  Now they are back in their preferred underdog role, which is where Pat Fitzgerald always seems to get the most out of his teams.

Turnover luck has not been on the Wildcats' side as they have already committed 10 turnovers in four games, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  They have moved the football just fine with an improved offense that is putting up 447.3 yards per game this season.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 55 yards per game despite the 1-3 record.  They will make enough plays on offense to stay within this inflated number against Penn State.

Penn State struggled last week in a 33-14 win over Central Michigan as 28-point favorites.  And it's worth noting the Chippewas were -4 in turnovers and still only lost by 19.  That makes me believe Northwestern can stay within this number if Central Michigan did.  I also think Penn State could be looking ahead to their showdown with Michigan.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nittany Lions after a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  Turnover luck has been on their side as they are +8 in turnovers through four games.

Northwestern is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a loss by 3 points or less.  Pat Fitzgerald is 34-21 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year.  I don't see anything changing in the rematch this year.  Michigan looks as good if not better than last year when they made the four-team playoff, and Iowa looks worse to this point.

After crushing Colorado State by 44, Hawaii by 46 and UConn by 59, Michigan finally got tested last week in a 34-27 win over Maryland as 17-point favorites.  I was happy to see Michigan get tested, and that will serve them well moving forward.  That's a vastly improved Maryland team that is going to give a lot of people trouble in the Big Ten this season.

Iowa's offense is not going to give Michigan any trouble.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 17.0 points per game, 232.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season despite playing a pretty soft schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers.  Their 27-10 win over Rutgers last week was very misleading as they scored two defensive touchdowns and were outgained by 84 yards by the Scarlet Knights.  That misleading score is providing us with some line value on Michigan this week.

Spencer Petras is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing just 51.1% of his passes for 524 yards and 5.6 per attempt with only one touchdown and two interceptions in four games.  Usually Iowa can rely on its running game amidst poor QB play, but that's not the case this season.  They have one of the worst offensive lines of the Kirk Ferentz era.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 102 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  

I just don't see how Iowa is going to be able to score enough points to stay within this number.  Their only hope is to get defensive and special teams touchdowns, but that's not going to happen.  Michigan has been mistake-free for the most part committing only two turnovers in four games.  Michigan's offense is even more potent this year with the switch to J.J. McCarthy at QB.  He is completing 80% of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while taking over for Cade McNamara.

Iowa has some injuries that are also contributing to its poor start this season.  Three of the top four receivers on the depth chart are out in Johnson, Vines and Ritter.  Two starters are out on defense in LB Jestin Jacobs and CB Jermari Harris as well.  Michigan is very healthy with only McNamara out, but that's addition by subtraction.  LB Hill-Green and LG Trevor Keegan are both questionable.

Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a win against a conference rival are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kirk Ferentz is 0-7 ATS in home games after leading in the last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* Washington/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 66

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the UNDER between UCLA and Washington Friday night.  Both teams are 4-0 and both have put up gaudy numbers on offense against suspect competition defensively.  That has inflated this total to the point where there's value with the UNDER.

Washington is scoring 44.0 points per game and putting up 530.8 yards per game this season.  But they have played four terrible defenses in Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State and Stanford.  UCLA is averaging 41.8 points per game and 508.3 yards per game, but those numbers have also come against four terrible defenses in Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado.

These two offenses will finally meet some resistance against the best defenses they will have faced all season, and it's not even close.  UCLA is allowing just 18.0 points per game, 301.0 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Washington is allowing just 19.0 points per game, 302.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  And that has come against three decent offenses in Michigan State, Stanford and Kent State.

These teams met last season with UCLA beating Washington 24-17 for just 41 combined points and a 55-point total.  This total is now 11 points higher than last year.  I get that Washington is a better offensive team under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but this is too big of an adjustment.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Bruins average 38 attempts and 220 yards per game, while the Huskies average 36 attempts for 162 yards per game.  Both teams are elite at stopping the run.  The Huskies are allowing just 89 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, while the Bruins are giving up 90 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games against an opponent that has two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored are 62-27 (69.7%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bruins last 24 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Tulane/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars.  They have played a very tough schedule and have gotten through it at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost to Texas Tech and Kansas, beat UTSA which won 12 games last year, and also beat an improved Rice team that upset Louisiana the previous week.

Remember, Houston went 12-2 last year and returned 13 starters this season including QB Clayton Tune and stud receiver Tank Dell.  This isn't the start they wanted, but they realize they have everything ahead of them in the American Athletic.  Now they will be pumped for their conference opener Friday night as they host Tulane.

While Houston (36th) has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, Tulane (166th) has played one of the weakest.  The result has been a 3-1 start that featured an upset win at Kansas State.  That win had them overvalued last week, and I took advantage and backed Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles beat the Green Wave outright as 13-point underdogs.  And I'll gladly fade Tulane again as I still believe them to be overvalued from that K-State win.

Remember, Tulane went 2-10 last year.  No question the Green Wave are improved this season, but they should not be basically a PK on the road at Houston.  The Cougars have owned the Green Wave each of the last two seasons.  They won 49-31 at home in 2020 and 40-22 on the road in 2021.  Tune has thrown for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two victories and figures to light them up again.  This game may be closer than the last two years, but Houston should still get it done by a FG or more.

The Green Wave are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Tulane is 2-7 ATS in its last nine trips to Houston.  Roll with Houston Friday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180

I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game.  I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher.  So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins.  They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see.  They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won.  They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo.  Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes.  That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well.

It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals.  There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest.  Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week.

The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either.  QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense.  DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable.  This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL.

So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead.  In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards.  They lost due to committing five turnovers.  They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott.

Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets.  Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.  And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start.  And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills.  The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo.

While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year.  This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL.  They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year.  They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season.

The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week.  The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team.  Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62

The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo.  I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game.  BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one.

Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively.  The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team.  It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year.  The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses.  But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play.

Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State.  The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year.  They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point.

These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total.  That was with an elite Utah State offense last year.  They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1

The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0.  They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1.  The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now.

Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play.  They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season.  I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game.  They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful.  They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful.  The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season.

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss.  They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.  They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play.  It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott.

Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.  This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks.  They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week.  They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well.  Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six.  The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas.  Roll with the Cowboys Monday.

15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2

This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay.  The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries.  And it has gotten worse this week.  QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue.  He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week.

The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable.  They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems.  They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells.  They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful.

It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian.  The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season.  They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half.  The Packers won't let them off the hook this week.

Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago.  They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy.  They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember.  That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury.  They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks.

The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did.  And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory.  They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks.

The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs.  You know they have had this game circled all offseason.  The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week.  I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play.  Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon.  I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play.

Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play.  They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home.  They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play.  

This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already.  Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2.  He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt.  Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries.  They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week.

Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3

The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate.  The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play.

The opener for the Patriots was also misleading.  It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate.  The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play.  That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week.

The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary.  Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did.  The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns.

It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score.  The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards.  So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise.  The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson.

After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore.  The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer.  This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time.  They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league.  The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130)

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts.  This line would have been close to a PK to open the season.  So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football.  And even those two weeks are misleading.

The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers.  They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game.  They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers.

The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats.  Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week.  Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset.  That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them.

Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week.  They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled.  But both are back this week for Matt Ryan.  It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable.  Almost all  the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season.

The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town.  And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere.  After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive.  Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB.

Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run.  He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season.  That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run.  The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense.

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game.  Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.

It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints.  That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards.  They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch.

The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now.  Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return.  They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back.  That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away.  It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week.

Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010.  There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall.  Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.  Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall.  Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season.  I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener.  That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs.  Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost.

Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs.  But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites.  He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups.  He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season.  Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued.  That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State.  But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week.

Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively.  Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season.  While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss.  Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week.

Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.

I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week.  The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games.  Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be.

Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.  I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories.  They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week.  The Fighting Irish are clearly down.

This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road.  Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games.  Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards.  They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game.  Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats.

Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5

There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State.  I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot.  And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot.

In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina.  They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2.  Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though.  And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus.  They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less.

You know who is not fatigued? James Madison.  The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion.  They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points.  They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards.  That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points.  The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points.

I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school.  But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times.  They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State.  Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition.

I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country.  They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State.  College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry.  They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T.  Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS.  Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game.

Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already.  Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years.  

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45

Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country.  Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma.  Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia.  I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game.

This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri.  We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season.  After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites.

Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week.  That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half.  That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little.  They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number.  I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one.  

Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them.  Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind.  The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year.  While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here.  New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years.

Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia.  Roll with Kent State Saturday.

20* Virginia/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 53

The Virginia Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game last season and averaged 514 yards per game.  They brought back all of their top playmakers at receiver and QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, while also rushing for nine scores.

The Cavaliers have had no problem moving the football again this season, but they have committed eight turnovers in two games, and they haven't scored as many points as they should have as a result.  They are scoring just 18.3 points per game.  They had 505 total yards against Richmond and 515 total yards against Old Dominion while being held in check by a good Illinois defense.

But the lack of points along with three consecutive UNDERS for Virginia to start the season has provided some value with the OVER this week.  This total should be much higher than 53.  It's only a matter of time before this offense starts turning those yards into points, and this Virginia defense isn't very good after allowing 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last season.

Syracuse has one of the most improved offenses in the country.  They brought in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and he is getting the most out of this Syracuse offense.  The Orange are averaging 37.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play despite playing a tough schedule that has included Louisville and Purdue.

Garrett Shrader is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country under Anae's watch.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes for 705 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 202 yards and three scores.  Sean Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards and 12 TD last season and is one of the best backs in the country.

Armstrong should have a field day throwing the football against this Syracuse defense that was just torched for 424 passing yards by Purdue last week.  I also expect Shrader to put up points at will on this Virginia defense, and for Armstrong to keep pace.  It will be perfect conditions inside the Carrier Dome for a track meet Friday night, too.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Virgina) - in a game involving two good offensive teams that average 390 to 440 yards per game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 13-5 in Cavaliers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Steelers/Browns AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4

The Cleveland Browns should be 2-0 and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be 0-2.  But since both come in at 1-1, this line is closer than it should be.  I've been way more impressed with the Cleveland Browns than the Pittsburgh Steelers to this point.  And I fully expect them to win this game by a touchdown or more Thursday night.

The Browns beat the Panthers 26-24 on the road in Week 1 and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards and held them to just 261 total yards.  Then last week they were beating the Jets 30-17 with under two minutes left before a miracle happened.  The Jets scored two touchdowns and got an onside kick in the final two minutes to pull out the victory.

You know the Browns are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field and erase that sour taste out of their mouth.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to beat the hated rival Steelers Thursday night.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals in the opener.  They won 23-20 (OT) despite getting outgained by 167 yards by the Bengals.  That's because the Bengals gave the game away with 5 turnovers and STILL had a chance to win the game with an extra point on the final play of the game, or a FG in OT, both which were no good.  The Steelers were dominated again last week by the Patriots in a 14-17 loss that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 133 yards.

Pittsburgh is missing its best player in TJ Watt, who had 22.5 sacks last year and won Defensive Player of the Year.  He is neck-and-neck with Aaron Donald as the best defender in the NFL.  The Steelers really miss him, and their weakness has been stopping the run the past couple seasons.

That has been the case again this season as the Steelers are allowing 128 rushing yards per game through two games, and that came against a passing team in the Bengals that was way behind the entire game and against the Patriots.  The Steelers are in trouble going up against this Cleveland juggernaut, which is rushing for 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

This game will certainly be played on the ground with 20 MPH winds forecast for Cleveland Thursday night.  The Steelers are only rushing for 83 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season and Najee Harris is clearly banged up.  The Browns are only allowing 73.5 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 per carry.

If the game does go to the air, I trust Jacoby Brissett more than Mitch Trubisky.  Brissett is completing 65.6% of his passes this season and is a dual threat with 53 rushing yards on 10 attempts.  He is averaging 6.2 per attempt.  Mitch Trubisky is completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt.  He has been the second-worst QB in the NFL through two weeks.

Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  If the Browns didn't blow that game against the Jets last week, they would be bigger favorites this week.  We'll take advantage.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina/Georgia State OVER 61.5

Coastal Carolina is loaded on offense again this season.  They scored 37.2 points per game in 2020 and followed it up with 40.9 points per game in 2021.  The constant?  That would be QB Grayson McCall, who is back again this season to lead the Chanticleers on offense.

McCall has led this Chanticleers offense to 35.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes for 733 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.

The problem for the Chanticleers this season is that their defense only returned three starters and lost seven of their top eight tacklers.  There are holes in their defense as they have given up 27.0 points per game.  And that has come against three poor offensive teams in Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.  Both Army and Buffalo like to slow the game down, too, or the numbers would be worse on defense and better for Coastal Carolina on offense to this point.

Georgia State is loaded on offense again this season.  The Panthers returned eight starters from a unit that put up 28.2 points per game last season, including QB Darren Granger.  The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points per game against a brutal schedule of South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte.  That's why they are 0-3.

The Panthers have been gashed defensively, allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They just gave up 42 points and 501 yards to Charlotte last week.  Now on a short week, their defense is probably still tired, which can also be said for Coastal Carolina after a hard-fought battle with Buffalo.  Look for the offenses to have the advantage on this short week.

These teams played in an absolute shootout last year with Georgia State winning 42-40 for 82 combined points.  Coastal Carolina clearly has their defense figured out, also scoring 51 points against the Panthers in 2020 two years ago.  These teams should have no problem topping 62 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 6-0 in Coastal Carolina's last six games following a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  The OVER is 18-5 in Chanticleers last 23 September games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Panthers last five Thursday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WVU/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia ML -125

The West Virginia Mountaineers could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  As a result of their poor record, they are grossly undervalued heading into this game with Virginia Tech.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on the Mountaineers as they are clearly better than the Hokies this season.

West Virginia lost 31-38 at Pitt in the opener in a game they should have won.  But they threw a fluky pick-six with the game tied late in the 4th quarter that bounced off a wide open receivers' hands and into a Pitt defender, who returned it for a TD for the difference.  They also outgained Kansas by 81 yards but lost in OT.  

Pitt went on to take Tennessee to OT, which is an impressive result.  Kansas went on to upset Houston, which is an impressive result.  So the level of competitive WVU has faced thus far has been very tough, and they should be 3-0.  USC transfer QB JT Daniels has injected life into this WVU offense.

Daniels is completing 64.4% of his passes for 743 yards with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He is leading a WVU offense that is averaging 46.0 points, 509.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The defense has been solid as well, holding opponents to 328 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.

Virginia Tech has been favored in every game this season and has played a very soft schedule.  The wins have come against Wofford and Boston College.  They failed to cover in a 20-point win over Wofford as 39-point favorites.  They beat a Boston College team that is way worse than most expected coming into the season.  And most concerning, they were upset by Old Dominion in the opener.

While West Virginia is a team on the rise in the Big 12 and with chemistry under fourth-year head coach Neal Brown, Virginia Tech is a team in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Brent Pry.  They returned just 11 starters this season.  While the Hokies have a solid defense, their offense is pitiful as they returned only four starters on that side of the ball.  They are averaging just 23.7 points, 366.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season despite playing such a soft schedule.

The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* Vikings/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -130

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are popular picks to win the NFC this season.  I like both teams and even backed the Vikings last week in their victory over the Packers.  But I'm going against the Vikings this week as this is a clear letdown spot now, and they are getting too much respect for that win over the Packers.

That was a Packers team that was rusty after not playing Aaron Rodgers in the preseason, so he didn't have time to get chemistry with his new receivers.  Plus, the Packers were missing both starting offensive tackles and arguably their best receiver in Allen Lazard.  They were easy to defend, and the Vikings took advantage in a 23-7 victory.

The Eagles will not be easy to defend.  They are loaded on offense this season.  They were awesome in the second half of last season, and now they brought in AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans.  They have weapons all over the field, and Jalen Hurts is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He just doesn't get the respect that other quarterbacks with his skill set do, like Lamar Jackson.

Hurts led the Eagles to a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1.  Keep in mind that was a bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as the Eagles led 38-21 entering the 4th quarter before letting off the gas.  Hurts threw for 243 yards while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  The Eagles rushed for 216 yards as a team and will test that Vikings front seven, unlike the Packers.

The Eagles are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL entering Week 2.  The only key player they are missing is DE Derek Barnett.  I think their defense is better than it showed in Week 1 as they were gashed on the ground by the Lions, but they made life miserable on Jared Goff for the first three quarters.  The Vikings are a pass-happy team now, which fits the strength of the Eagles which is their secondary and ability to defend the pass.

Fans are excited about this Philadelphia team and it will be a hostile atmosphere for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Monday night.  When the Eagles are good, they have some of the best fans in the NFL.  Cousins has always struggled in primetime.  He is 2-9 all-time on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.  The Eagles should be 3-point favorites here at least.  I'll gladly take them on the Money Line to be safe.   Bet the Eagles Monday.

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -10

This is the rare 'buy low' spot on a favorite and 'sell high' spot on an underdog.  The Packers are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Vikings on the road in the opener.  That's an improved Vikings team, and a Packers team that was rusty coming out of training camp, similar to last year when they lost 38-3 in the opener to the Saints before coming back to blow out the Lions 35-17.

The Bears are coming off a shocking 19-10 victory over the 49ers last week.  They trailed 10-0 and looked dead, but then some breaks went their way and they took advantage in the monsoon.  The Bears won that game despite getting outgained 331 to 204 by the 49ers, or by 127 total yards.  They were also outgained 4.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play.  They really had no business winning that game.

Now the Bears have to face a pissed off Packers team.  This is a Bears team that is legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that will show Sunday.  The offense lost Allen Robinson and the defense lost Khalil Mack to get even worse in the offseason.  Those were arguably their two best players.  Justin Fields is still a work in progress and lacking weapons, and the defense is not very good, especially up front.

Christian Watson dropped a sure TD that could have changed that game against the Vikings last week.  These young receivers will be much more comfortable at home at Lambeau Field after playing in a hostile atmosphere in Minnesota.  Plus, both starting offensive tackles and WR Allen Lazard sat out last week, and all three returned to practice this week and could be back.

This is a perfect spot to back the Packers.  Green Bay is 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Aaron Rodgers has a 26-to-1 TD/INT ratio during this 11-0 run, so he tends to be at his best and bring out the best in his teammates.  Teams like the Bears that pulled off an upset as an underdog of 6 points or more in Week 1 and now are a dog of 6 or more again in Week 2 are 19-48-1 ATS in their last 68 tries.

The Packers own the Bears, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with four consecutive wins by double-digits.  Dating back further, Green Bay is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and losing by 19.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

I can see why the Raiders have gotten steamed from -3 up to -5.5 this week and I believe it is justified.  I love the spot for the Raiders coming off a divisional road loss to the Chargers.  The Raiders only lost 24-19 despite being -3 in turnovers and would have covered the 3.5-point spread if they had gotten the 2-point conversion.

Now they are excited for their home opener and it will be a great atmosphere in Las Vegas as fans are really starting to take to this team.  There's a lot to like about the Raiders in 2022.  They brought in head coach Josh McDaniels, signed one of the best receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams, and also brought in one of the best pass rushers the NFL has ever seen in Chandler Jones from Arizona.

The fact that they have Jones gives them a huge advantage here.  He will be able to relay to the defense what Arizona likes to run on offense all week in practice to get his defense prepared for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and company.

Arizona lost 44-21 in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs while getting outgained 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.  The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.

The Cardinals really miss WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is out the first six games with a suspension.  They were without DE J.J. Watt last week as well.  TE Zach Ertz and WR Rondale Moore are questionable and doubtful, respectively.  They also lost WR Christian Kirk in free agency.  They are basically down three of their top four receivers from last year.  While the Cardinals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, the Raiders are remarkably healthy.

The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I hate being on the side that everyone is on in the NFL, but this is one of the rare times I will be as the Cardinals just have too many injuries to overcome, and this is a great spot for the Raiders in their home opener.  Vegas should win this game by a touchdown or more no problem.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.

Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it.  The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.  Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener.  He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss.  They offensive line got annihilated.  Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp.  And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.

The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much.  Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26.  I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense.  They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.

I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season.  The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.

The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.  The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play.  Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week.  They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game.  But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers.  Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.

Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards.  This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league.  The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec.  His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.

Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career.  Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot.  New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.  That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.

Brady missed a lot of training camp.  There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs.  C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible.  T Tristan Wirfs is questionable.  They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury.  Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.

The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week.  Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone.  Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady.  The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out.  The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams.  Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure.  There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points.  The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Fresno State/USC FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +12.5

Jeff Tedford is back in the Valley after guiding the Fresno State Bulldogs to a Mountain West title in 2018 while going 12-2.  He inherits a very talented team, which made his decision to come back easy.  The Bulldogs have 15 starters back this year, including star QB Jake Haener, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Haener is coming off a season in which he completed 67.1% of his passes for 4,096 yards with a 33-to-9 TD/INT ratio in which he led the Bulldogs to a 10-3 season.  Two of the losses were by one score with a 24-31 loss at Oregon as 20-point dogs and a 24-27 loss at Hawaii.  They also upset another Pac-12 team in UCLA as 11-point road dogs.  So they have proven they can play with the big boys of the Pac-12.

They proved it again last week in a 32-35 loss to Oregon State.  They deserved to win that game as they racked up 492 total yards and outgained the Beavers by 94 yards.  That's an Oregon State team that is coming off a bowl season last year and is loaded again this year.  Oregon State crushed Boise State in the opener as well, so it was an impressive loss.

The Bulldogs will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face USC.  Haener is pissed his wasn't recruited by USC and will take it out on them.  USC is getting a lot of love after opening 2-0 SU & and 2-0 ATS with blowout wins over overmatched opponents in Rice and Stanford.

Both games were closer than the final scores.  USC is +8 in turnover differential through two games.  The Trojans had three interceptions returned for touchdowns against Rice.  Their 41-28 win over Stanford was much closer than that as Stanford turned it over four times.  Fresno State is better than Stanford with a lot more team speed.  They can match the Trojans score for score on offense and keep up with their athletes at WR defensively.  Stanford and Rice could not match their foot speed.

Fresno State is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Fresno State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  Plays on any team (Fresno State) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 (71.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -2.5

The Maryland Terrapins are a team on the rise in the Big Ten.  They finally made a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last year and crushed Virginia Tech 54-10 to improve to 7-6 on the season.  Now they enter Year 4 under Mike Locksley, have some chemistry finally, and have his best team yet with 16 returning starters.

The offense is loaded with nine returning starters and that has been on display in the first few games this season.  The Terrapins have averaged 43.5 points and 532.5 yards per game in crushing both Buffalo and Charlotte.  Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 78.5% of his passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He is one of the best QB's in the country, and he has one of the most talented WR's corps in the country in Jarrett, Jones and Copeland who have combined for 24 receptions, 387 yards and four touchdowns.

SMU has also blown out a pair of overmatched opponents in North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16.  They are playing under a first-year head coach in Rhett Lashlee, so they were fortunate to get a few cupcakes to start.  I don't expect them to handle this huge step up in class well.  It will be a hostile atmosphere as this will be a night game in College Park at 7:30 EST Saturday night.  Fans are more excited about the Terrapins than they have been in a long time, so it should be a great atmosphere.

I'm shocked oddsmakers are calling these even teams or saying SMU would be favored on a neutral even when you factor in home-field advantage.  Maryland should be closer to a 7-point favorite at home in this matchup.  SMU is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Mustangs are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 road games after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game.  SMU is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

Plays on home favorites (Maryland) - in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained their opponents by 1.2 yards per play or more, after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +32

Ohio State has not been impressive at all this season.  I successfully faded them with Notre Dame +17 in the opener in their sloppy 21-10 victory.  That win looks even worse now after Notre Dame was just upset by Marshall last week.

I wish I would have faded the Buckeyes again last week as they failed to cover as 44.5-point favorites in a 45-12 win over Arkansas State.  I won't make that same mistake here and I'll back Toledo catching 32 points against the Buckeyes.  This is a flat spot for Ohio State with the Big Ten opener against Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they just want to get out of here with a win and won't be worried about getting margin.

I don't think they can get margin on this Toledo team even if they tried.  This is an underrated, loaded Toledo team that returned 15 starters this season.  Toledo went 7-6 last year with five losses by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they were to being 12-1.  That included a 3-point loss at Notre Dame as 17-point underdogs.

The Rockets are consistently one of the best teams in the MAC and I believe they are the top team this season, and it's not really even close.  They have handled their business in winning their first two games in blowout fashion while outscoring a pair of overmatched opponents 92-10.  This team will relish the opportunity to face a Big Ten team in Ohio State in their home state.  This is essentially their National Championship game.  

We saw how they handled this type of game last year with a 3-point loss at Notre Dame.  The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Ohio State is once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week due to that No. 3 National ranking.    They will get more of a fight from Toledo than they bargained for this week.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas +9

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

Last week Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against Pitt in their opener.  I think the Jayhawks will give the Houston Cougars a run for their money and likely improve to 3-0 with another upset in Week 3.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 55.5 points per game, 461.0 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 249 rushing yards per game and 7.7 per carry.  They are also completing 70.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Houston came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 12-2 last year.  They were extremely fortunate to have that record as they went 4-0 in one score games.  They lost by 15 to Cincinnati and by 17 to Texas Tech, the two best teams they faced.  I have not been impressed at all with Houston as they have lost the stats in each of their first two games and should be 0-2.

Houston managed just 346 total yards and was outgained by 95 yards by UTSA in a 37-35 (OT) victory in their opener as 3.5-point favorites.  Their luck ran out last week as they lost 30-33 (OT) to Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs, getting outgained by 115 yards and managing just 355 total yards of offense.  

Those are two bad defensive teams in Texas Tech and UTSA, so averaging just 350.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play against them is terrible.  QB Clayton Tune isn't as good as he gets credit for, and they are only rushing for 3.2 yards per carry.  Now the Cougars are gassed after playing two straight OT games and won't have much left in the tank for Kansas this week.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas) - a bad team from last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1992.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Cougars are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UL-Monroe +49.5

This is a terrible spot for the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They are coming off a 20-19 win at Texas last week in what was the biggest game in college football.  Now they have their SEC opener on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Nick Saban is the king of just trying to get through these games and taking the air out of the ball in the second half.  He isn't going to be trying to beat UL-Monroe by 50-plus, which is what it's going to take to cover this massive spread.

We have a good data point here with UL-Monroe losing 52-10 to Texas in the opener, or by 42 points.  Texas obviously took Alabama to the wire and would have won if their starting QB didn't get hurt, and had a few calls not gone Alabama's way.  It's worth noting Texas was fortunate to score 52 points as LA-Monroe actually held them to just 383 total yards.

Monroe came back last week and beat a very good FCS opponent in Nicholls State 35-7 as 4.5-point favorites, covering by 23.5 points.  They racked up 434 yards on Nicholls State and outgained them by 124 total yards.  They were only outgained by 124 yards by Texas, so it's pretty impressive they are even in the yardage battle on the season despite playing a team the caliber of Texas.

Of course, we saw last year what the Warhawks were capable of.  They pulled off three huge upsets over Troy 29-16 as 23-point dogs, over Liberty 31-28 as 33-point dogs and over South Alabama 41-31 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Sun Belt champ Louisiana to the wire in a 16-21 loss as 21-point dogs, and only lost 14-27 at LSU as 29-point dogs, a fellow SEC team with Alabama.

Now the Warhawks are in the second year in Terry Bowden's systems and he is doing a good job of recruiting here and trying to turn this program around.  Eight starters are back on offense, and the defense has played very well thus far.  QB Chandler Rogers got his feet wet as a freshman last year with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 367 rushing yards in six starts.  

He has been superb thus far, completing 77.3% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt in two starts in 2022, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score as a dual threat.  This guy can help the Warhawks move the ball and extend drives and burn clock against this Alabama defense.  And like I said, Alabama isn't going to run up the score as Saban has respect for Bowden.

UL-Monroe is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win by more than 20 points.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  The Sun Belt rolled last week, going 11-3 ATS which included upsets by Appalachian State over Texas A&M, Marshall over Notre Dame, Georgia Southern over Nebraska and South Alabama over Central Michigan.  This is likely the most underrated conference in the country.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* Troy/Appalachian State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +12.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  They followed up their thrilling 63-61 loss to North Carolina in the opener with a 17-14 upset of Texas A&M as 18-point road underdogs last week.  They are feeling fat and happy after beating an SEC team, and they now overvalued as a result, which is a double whammy.  They also won't have much left in the tank for Troy after both games went to the wire.

Troy is no pushover.  I expect the Trojans to be one of the most improved teams in the Sun Belt this season with 18 starters back from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Only two of the losses were by more than two scores.

Troy covered the 21.5-point spread at Ole Miss in the opener in a 10-28 road loss.  They came back last week with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.  That was a 31-3 game before they called off the dogs.  QB Gunnar Watson is completing 70.4% of his passes for 626 yards with a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio through two games and the offense is vastly improved.

Of course, the defense is what gets me the most excited about Troy.  They allowed just 337 total yards per game last season and brought back nine starters and eight of their top nine tacklers from that unit.  Holding Ole Miss to just 28 points is no small feat and shows what they are capable of.  I think they can hang with Appalachian State in a defensive battle this week, and I also kind of like the UNDER as a result, but decided to go with Troy instead due to the terrible spot for the Mountaineers.  Take Troy Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico State/Wisconsin UNDER 46

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in their second game.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  Last week they played a bad UTEP team and lost 13-20 as the offense was held in check once again, but the defense showed what it was capable of in limiting the Miners to 307 total yards.

The Badgers led the nation last year in holding their opponents to 150 yards per game below their season average and finished allowing 16.2 points per game and 239 yards per game.  They have now held their opponents to 17.4 points per game and 301 yards per game or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.  They are elite defensively once again in 2022.

After shutting out Illinois State 38-0 in the opener, the Badgers held the Washington State Cougars to just 17 points and 253 total yards last week.  But once again this season, the offense looks like a problem.  They were held to 14 points and committed three turnovers to get upset by the Cougars.  Wisconsin has only averaged 25.4 points per game and 25.1 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  QB Graham Mertz is a massive disappointment.

For this game to go over the total, Wisconsin is going to have to do it all on their own.  They are 37-point favorites.  I expect them to shut out New Mexico State, and to not top 40 points themselves.  This is going to be very similar to Minnesota's 38-0 win over New Mexico State two weeks ago and stay UNDER the 46-point total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four non-conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Badgers last seven games following a loss.  Paul Christ is 11-3 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Wisconsin) - an excellent defensive team from last season that allowed 285 or fewer yards per game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Nebraska FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Players and coaches alike finally can stop answering questions about Scott Frost and their poor play under him.  He has been fired, and the Huskers will have a breath of fresh air.  Look for them to get a one game boost at least and to finally play up to their potential and give Oklahoma a run for its money.

Of course, Nebraska should have beaten Oklahoma last year, which was yet another close loss for them.  They lost 23-16 as 22.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Sooners.  It's tough to beat Nebraska by margin.  They went 3-9 last year, but all nine losses came by 9 points or less.  In fact, Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 19 games by more than 9 points, making for a 19-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 11-point spread.

Oklahoma is learning new systems under Brent Venables in their first year with the team.  Lincoln Riley took a lot of talent with him from Oklahoma.  The Sooners only brought back 10 starters this season.  They were fortunate to get a couple cupcakes to open the season in UTEP and Kent State, which they beat 45-13 and 33-3, respectively.  

This is a big step up in class for them and their first road game in a hostile atmosphere as Nebraska fans will be excited with a new head coach and the Sooners coming to town.  Nebraska has already been tested having to play Northwestern and an improved Georgia Southern team.  I think that loss to Southern last week has the Huskers undervalued this week.  Keep in mind this line was only Oklahoma -5 in the offseason, so we are getting at least 6 points of value.

Nebraska is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after a game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  The Sooners are 24-47 ATS in their last 71 games after allowing 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a SU win by more than 20 points.

Plays on any team (Nebraska) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Nebraska UNDER 66.5

These teams are familiar with one another after playing last year with Oklahoma winning 23-16 for just 39 combined points.  They are different teams this year, but the familiarity will favor the defense.  So will the forecast, which is calling for possible storms in the morning and 20 MPH winds.  This game will likely be played mostly on the ground as a result, which will keep the clock moving.

Oklahoma has changed philosophy this season under first-year head coach Will Venables.  The former Clemson defensive coordinator is already putting his imprint on this Oklahoma defense.  They have held UTEP and Kent State to just 8.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.

At the same time, Lincoln Riley and his high-octane offense are gone.  He took many of his best players with him on offense to USC.  The Sooners have been a little more conservative on offense this season, averaging only 461.0 yards per game against two poor defenses in UTEP and Kent State.  They are going to be an UNDER team this season because oddsmakers keep setting their totals too high due to their past reputation.

Nebraska has faced three straight poor defenses in Northwestern, North Dakota and Georgia Southern.  They will finally meet some resistance on offense from this Oklahoma defense, which held them to 16 points and 384 total yards last year and is even better this year.  I think Nebraska's defense will play its best game as well now with Scott Frost gone.  They are a lot more talented on this side of the ball than they have shown this season.  They only gave up 22.7 points per game last season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Nebraska) - with a bad defense that allos 450 or more yards per game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 26-5 (83.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Huskers last 12 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Florida State/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

Mike Norvell and Florida State have struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in his three seasons here.  They have really struggled defending Louisville's Malik Cunningham.  Louisville won 48-16 two years ago and 31-23 last year.

Cunningham went 16-of-24 for 278 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 40 yards on seven carries against Florida State in 2020.  Last year, Cunningham went 25-of-39 for 264 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 56 yards on 14 attempts and two scores.  It will be more of the same here as this Louisville offense will do whatever they want on this FSU defense.

Conversely, Florida State is vastly improved on offense this season as they are familiar with Norvell's system now in Year 3.  The Seminoles brought back eight starters on offense, includinG QB Jordan Travis is is coming into his own in his junior season.  He has five of his top six receivers back from last year and four starters back along the offensive line.  

Travis did not face Louisville last year, so he will have the element of surprise.  It was McKenzie Milton, who was replaced by Travis due to his ineffectiveness.  This Louisville defense gave up 31 points and 449 total yards to a suspect Syracuse offense in the opener.  Travis and company can do the same.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 59 or more points in six of the eight meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are loaded this season.  They beat Arizona 44-21 in Week 1 while outgaining them 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.

The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.  This might be the best defense the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid.

The Chargers were +3 in turnovers against the Raiders in Week 1 and still nearly didn't cover.  They won 24-19 only after stopping a 2-point conversion by the Raiders that allowed them to cover as 3.5-point favorites.  I think this Chargers team is talented, but this line is suggesting these teams are nearly even when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just not the case.

Especially now with the Chargers likely to be without their top receiver in Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Raiders and exited the game.  It's almost certain he won't be recovered in time for this game even though he's listed as questionable.  They will also be without TE Darnell Parham due to a hamstring injury and could be without CB J.C. Jackson, who also missed Week 1 with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles was outgained by the Raiders 5.7 to 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City outgained Arizona 7.4 to 4.5 yards per play.  The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

20* Broncos/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Seattle +7

This line is inflated.  Denver is a popular team in the offseason after trading for Russell Wilson.  Conversely, Seattle is an unpopular team after losing Wilson.  That has created some artificial line value on the Seahawks.  This line would indicate that Denver is 10 points better than Seattle on a neutral field when you factor in home-field advantage for the Seahawks.  That's just not the case.

We've seen former quarterbacks struggle going back to play teams they have played for their entire career.  Tom Brady barely beat the Patriots in his return to New England and talked about how awkward it was.  Wilson loves Seattle, and it will be awkward for him going into the visitor's locker room and all the distractions that come with playing his former team.

I'm not a big Geno Smith guy, but he does have plenty of starting experience and he doesn't beat himself.  He will keep the Seahawks in this game, and not to mention he probably has the best weapons he's ever had on any team.  The Seahawks still have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.

If there's anyone that knows Wilson's tendencies and the best way to defend him, it would be Pete Carroll and this coaching staff.  I think that will be an advantage for this Seattle defense.  Don't fall for his pump fakes, and keep him contained.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Seahawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as underdogs.  Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +2

The Minnesota Vikings will have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.  Kirk Cousins gets a bad rap, but he is one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 30 touchdown passes each of the last two seasons.  He is loaded with weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook.  

Everyone is raving about the new offense under former Rams coordinator Kevin O'Connell, with Jefferson saying he can now see how Cooper Kupp was always wide open even when opposing teams knew he was going to get the ball.  And the defense cannot be much worse than it was a year ago.

The Vikings gave DE Za'Darius Smith a $42 million contract in the offseason in hopes that he can return to the form that saw him recording 26 total sacks in 2019 and 2020.  He played just one game last year with a back injury.  He'll be opposite All-Pro Danielle Hunter to form one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL.  Dalvin Tomlinson does a little bit of everything on the inside, and newcomer Harrison Phillips is a run stuffer.

Eric Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL.  The Vikings had big concerns in the secondary in the offseason, so they spend their top two picks addressing this area.  They used one on Lewis Cline to replace the departed Xavier Woods at safety.  He'll start next to Harrison Smith, one of the top safeties in the NFL.  They got Andrew Booth in the second round even though many projected him to be a first-round pick at corner.  He'll likely start opposite Patrick Peterson.

I don't think the Packers will be anywhere near 100% to open the season.  Aaron Rodgers will be without DeVante Adams for the first time since 2014.  All he did was top 74 receptions and 885 yards in each of the last six seasons, including 10 or more touchdowns in five of them.  He had 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns the last two years alone.  Also gone is No. 2 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  It's going to take a few games for Rodgers to form chemistry with Sammy Watkins and Romeo Daubs, along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.  Lazard is questionable to play in Week 1.

The Packers are ripe for the picking in Week 1, and the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL when they are good.  The fans will be rowdy for this showdown against the hated division rival Packers.  Remember, the Packers lost 38-3 at New Orleans in Week 1 last year.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7

The Cincinnati Bengals come in overvalued after making the Super Bowl last year.  I always like fading both Super Bowl winners and especially Super Bowl losers because there seems to be a hangover effect.  Indeed, Super bowl losers are 5-21 ATS in Week 1 the following season over the past 26 years.

I'm a big Joe Burrow guy as he has won me a ton of money dating back to his time at LSU.  But it's going to take him some time to recover from an appendectomy this summer, which caused him to lose 20 pounds due to an infection.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and has only recently been cleared to play.

There cannot be that big of a drop off from Big Ben to Mitch Trubisky.  Big Ben was a dink and dunk QB the last couple years.  Trubisky is at least mobile and can stretch the field.  He thrived in the preseason and the Steelers feel good about his prospects.

Trubisky has a lot more weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago.  They are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Treiermuth and rookie George Pickens.  Najee Harris is a solid back and they can rely on him plenty, especially catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Steelers had issues against the run last year and tried to shore that up this offseason.  But they were very good against the pass and will be again, making this a good matchup for them.  T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, logging 22.5 sacks last season.

I just think this line is inflated because the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year, while the Steelers are breaking in a new QB.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Steelers are 25-7 SU & 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings with the Bengals.  Pittsburgh is 35-15-2 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog.  Take the Steelers Sunday. (Buy 0.5 to +7 if necessary)