Winning Sports Picks

4* MAJOR *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -3

Bottom Line: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are 9-0 ATS in home games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750 since 1992 and have defeated these teams by an average of 14.0 points. The Patriots are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on grass while the Packers are 6-0 ATS on grass this season.

4* MAJOR *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Falcons +1.5

Bottom Line: Arizona's confidence took a hit with last week's crushing defeat in Seattle. Now it has to make the cross-country trip to face an Atlanta team that has been really good at home since Matt Ryan starting manning the controls. With Stanton starting the last 2 games, the Arizona offense has managed only 17 points. Playing against teams with a win percentage of .750 or higher that have covered 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 144-95 ATS record the last 10 seasons.

4* MAJOR *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Saints +5

Bottom Line: Despite a 4-7 record and 3 consecutive SU and ATS losses at home, the Saints will be fully invested in this contest. They are still tied for 1st in the NFC South so they have no reason to hang their head. The Saints have been extremely competitive on the road this season. They are 1-4 away from home but 3 of the losses have come by 3 points or less. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record. New Orleans is 21-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24.0 ppg or more under Sean Payton. It has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points.

4* MAJOR EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Chargers +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Diego's 0-6 ATS slide coupled with Baltimore's back-to-back ATS wins. The fact of the matter is, San Diego can move into a tie for 1st in the AFC West with a win and Denver loss so it has plenty to play for. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games versus a team with a winning home record. They are also on an impressive 57-37 ATS run as a road dog of 7 points or less since 1992.

5* WISEGUY NFL LOOK-AHEAD GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucs +4

Bottom Line: This is a prime look-ahead spot for Cincy. The Bengals have a big showdown with division rival Pittsburgh next week, which makes it extremely tough for them to get up for the lowly Bucs here. Tampa Bay hasn't quit competing. It has outgained each of its last 4 opponents, which is a great sign, and 3 of those games were played on the road. The Bucs are 0-5 at home this season so they will be leaving it all on the field in hopes of removing the goose egg. Fortunately for them, they catch the Bengals at the perfect time. Home underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .250 or less are 121-65 ATS since 1983, provided they have failed to cover 2 out of their last 3 games and are up against a winning team. Pound the Bucs.

4* MAJOR APPLE CUP *PUNISHER* on Washington State +3.5

Bottom Line: Home field has been huge in this series. Excluding a neutral field battle in 2011, the home team has won or lost by 3 points or less in 9 of the last 12 meetings. The home side has won 4 of the last 5. Additionally, Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. It has lost by an average of 13.0 points in this spot.

4* MAJOR C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB -4

Bottom Line: UAB enters this contest full of confidence after given Marshall all it wanted. It needs a win here to become bowl eligible, and it will be hungry as it looks to avenge last season's ugly 62-27 home loss to So. Miss. The Golden Eagles are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games overall, 6-15 ATS in their last 21 conference games, 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 versus a team with a losing record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.

4* MAJOR EGG BOWL *BLOOD BATH* on Ole Miss +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with the home team, which has been the play in this series. The home team is 13-2 in the last 15 meetings, including 9-1 in the last 10. The season hasn't finished the way Ole Miss had hoped, but it has a chance to end on a high note with a win over its biggest rival. I like the Rebels to get it done.

5* WISEGUY AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +7

Bottom Line: Cincy has won 5 in a row SU and ATS and is being overvalued on the road as a result. Just 1 win during this stretch came against a quality opponent and it was at home. Now the Bearcats are on the road and up against one of the best defenses they've seen all season. What has Temple done against good offensive teams like Cincinnati the last 2 seasons? It's gone 6-0 ATS versus teams that average 31 ppg or more while holding them to just 26 ppg on average. It held ECU to just 10 points on this field and Memphis to 16. Pound Temple.

5* Wiseguy CFB *BLACK FRIDAY FEAST* on UMass +3

Bottom Line: UMass has played outstanding football this season and has been in every game but 3. The Minutemen had strung together 6 consecutive quality performances before laying an egg at Akron last game, and they will be looking to bounce back strong on Senior Day. They were kicked 32-3 at Buffalo last season so revenge is in order as well. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. Take the points.

4* MAJOR NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 49ers pk

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big 19-3 win over the first place Cardinals, expect a letdown from Seattle as it hits the road on a short week. This game is all about payback for the 49ers, who will be out to avenge last season's tough-to-swallow loss in the NFC Championship game. The Seahawks are on a 1-9 ATS slide in road games following a dominant defensive performance where they allowed 6 points or less. They are 16-33-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a win of more than 14 points. The 49ers are 26-9-3 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS loss, and the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Lastly, the 49ers are 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS when Kaepernick is under center in games when the line is -4.5 to +2.5. Bet San Francisco.

4* MAJOR NFL "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 54.5

Bottom Line: Division games tend to be lower scoring. Consider that playing the UNDER on any team that is matched up against a division opponent when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 has resulted in a 78-46 record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, plays UNDER on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 has resulted in a 24-6 record since 1983 if they have gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last 5 games and are playing a division foe. I expect these systems to hold up in what should be a heated battle for first place. Bet the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Lions -7

Bottom Line: The Lions lost 34-9 in New England Sunday, but they are an impressive 29-14 ATS after a loss of 21 points or more since 1992. The Bears have responded with back-to-back wins following a 3-game skid, but they are 0-7 ATS all-time under Trestman after winning 2 times in a 3-game span. They have lost by an average of 15.3 points in these 7 contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit. Pound the Lions.

4* MAJOR CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio -3

Bottom Line: Ohio needs a win tonight to become bowl eligible, and that's enough of a motivator for it to get the job done. Under coach Solich, the Bobcats are 19-9 ATS versus teams with a win percentage of 25% or lower, and they have defeated these opponents by an average of 14.3 points. The Redhawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 7.0 ppg or more in the first half - after a game where they combined with an opponent for 60 points or more - has resulted in a 58-28 ATS record since 1992.

5* WISEGUY MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -2.5

Bottom Line: New Orleans got nothing out of its running game last week, and the result wasn't good. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they tend to be at their best offensively when they have a little more balance than they did against the Bengals. They rushed for just 75 yards in that game and weren't at all satisfied with the result. However, the Saints are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games the last 3 seasons after being held to 75 rushing yards or less. They have bounce back to win by an average of 19.5 points in this spot. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound New Orleans.

5* WISEGUY SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: This is a problematic spot for Dallas, which is playing a true road game for the first time in over a month and is no doubt already thinking about a Thanksgiving showdown with the Eagles. The Cowboys have had a week off following their overseas trip, and while a bye week can be a good thing this time of year, it can also be a bad thing. I think it's the latter in this case because the Cowboys aren't chomping at the bit to face a team they defeated by double digits Oct. 19. I really think the Giants will treat this game, and their season finale against Philadelphia, like the Super Bowl. The Giants are an impressive 29-17 ATS when out for revenge under coach Coughlin. They are also 16-7 ATS under their coach when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. Dallas is a weak 19-32 ATS when laying points with Romo under center. Playing against road favorites off a win by more than 10 points that allow 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team that gives up 23-27 ppg. Pound the G-Men.

4* MAJOR NFC NON-DIVISION *SUREFIRE* on Redskins +10

Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 74-37 ATS record since 1983, provided they are playing a losing team and carry a win percentage of .510 to .600. Washington is a much better football team than it showed last week, and it will be incredibly motivated by that pathetic performance. The 49ers really haven't been a blowout threat this season with just 2 wins by double digits. They have won by more than 10 points just 1 time in their last 9 games.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL LATE AFTERNOON *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Seahawks -6.5

Bottom Line: Look for Seattle's 12th Man to come up big as the Seahawks end Arizona's 6-game win streak. In many ways, this is a must-win game for Seattle so it will be extremely focused. The Seahawks take pride in their home field advantage so last season's home loss to Arizona can't be sitting well. Stanton has performed well, but the Cardinals aren't the same team without Carson Palmer. It catches up with them here. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less and have won these games 18.1 points on average.

4* MAJOR NFC NORTH *SUREFIRE* on Vikings +10

Bottom Line: Green Bay hasn't been the same force on the road where it is 2-3 and could easily be 1-4. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are 11-1 ATS in home games since 1992 versus teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 ppg or more on the season.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFL EARLY *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Lions +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to New England's back-to-back-to-back blowout wins over the Bears, Broncos and Colts. The Lions are the best defensive team in the NFL, and I expect their defense to keep them in this game. Playing underdogs or pickems that average 18-23 ppg and are up against a team that averages 27 ppg or more, provided the play on team was held to 9 points or less last game, has resulted in a 38-15 ATS record since 1983. These teams have been underdogs of 7.4 points on average but have lost by just 3.4 points on average.

4* MAJOR SATURDAY NIGHT *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on UConn +10

Bottom Line: The Huskies shocked Central Florida as an 8-point dog Nov. 1 and are in good position to stun the Bearcats. UConn is 8-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. It has won by an average of 8.0 points in this spot.

5* WISEGUY LETDOWN GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +6

Bottom Line: I see Miami suffering a letdown after last week's crushing defeat to Florida State. Not only did Miami blow a 16-0 lead and an opportunity to knock off the undefeated defending national champs, it lost any chance of an ACC Coastal division title. Playing against road favorites that gave up 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game has resulted in a 50-19 ATS record since 1992 if they average 440 ypg or more on the season and are up against a team that allows 330-390 ypg. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 4-1 ATS this season. Pound Virginia.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Nebraska -10

Bottom Line: Playing on teams like Nebraska that average 4.9 yards per rush or more and are matched up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per rush, provided the play on team gave up 275 rushing yards or more last game, has resulted in a 47-20 ATS record since 1992. The Huskers are 6-0 at home this season and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus Minnesota. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a defeat greater than 20 points.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +6.5

Bottom Line: Penn State is off a 30-13 home win over Temple where it outgained the Owls by 193 yards on the ground. However, the Nittany Lions are 0-7 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 15.5 points in these games. They are also 0-6 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 12.5 points in these games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound the Fighting Illini.

5* WISEGUY CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on San Jose State +14.5

Bottom Line: Utah State is getting a little too much respect from odds makers tonight. SJSU hasn't lost by more than 14 points in any of its 6 conference games this season. That's a 6-0 trend I can get behind. The Spartans are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound SJSU.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Following a big upset victory over the defending Super Bowl champs, the Chiefs are in a letdown situation, especially with the tendency for them to look ahead to next week's showdown with Denver. Playing against road teams that are coming off an upset victory on their home field, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 106-53 ATS record since 1983. Zooming in, playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home that has a winning record on the season has resulted in a 31-12 ATS record over the last 5 seasons. Pound the Raiders.

4* MAJOR ACC *SUREFIRE* on North Carolina +6

Bottom Line: Duke is getting a little too much respect from odds makers against a motivated North Carolina squad that still needs a win to become bowl eligible. I'll gladly take the points in this rivalry game considering the Tar Heels have won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 22 of the last 23 meetings, including 10 straight.

4* MAJOR BIG 12 *BLOOD BATH* on West Virginia -2

Bottom Line: In a matchup between teams that average 34.0 ppg or more, playing against road underdogs that are off a game where 60 total points or more were scored has resulted in a 53-26 ATS record since 1992. West Virginia is legit. You don't hang with Alabama, beat Baylor and lose to TCU by a single point if you're not. The Mountaineers are not happy about losing their last two, and they're not happy about last season's 35-12 loss to Kansas State. Look for the Mountaineers to bounce back strong on Senior Night.

4* MAJOR MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -6.5

Bottom Line: Toledo will be the hungrier team tonight. This is the last home game for the seniors, and the Rockets still have a shot at the MAC West title. Bowling Green has clinched the MAC East so it doesn't have nearly the same level of motivation. Additionally, Toledo has had BG's number. The Rockets have won the last 4 in the series with the 2 home wins during this span coming by double digits. The Falcons are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Toledo.

5* Wiseguy MAC *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ohio +3

Bottom Line: Playing against road favorites that average 440.0 ypg or more that are matched up with a team that averages 330.0 to 390.0 ypg has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record over the last 5 seasons if the team we are fading allowed an average of 6.25 yards per play or more last game. The Bobcats are on a perfect 7-0 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage greater than .750. Pound Ohio.

4* Major MAC *SUREFIRE* on Akron -7

Bottom Line: Playing home teams 7 games or more into the season that average 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush and are matched up with a team that averages 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rush has resulted in a 31-8 ATS record since 1992, provided the play on team has been held to 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. The home teams have been favored by 7.1 points on average in this situation and have won by an average of 15.9 points. This system has produced a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

4* Major MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Titans +7

Bottom Line: Playing against a team off a loss against the spread that has a win percentage of 51% to 60% and is matched up against a team with win percentage of 25% or worse has resulted in a 73-37 ATS record since 1983. The Steelers laid an egg in New York last week, and we were all over it as that performance was nothing new. They are only 3-6 in their last 9 contests in the second half of their schedule versus teams with a win percentage below .300. The Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* Major NFC North *SUREFIRE* on Bears -2.5

Bottom Line: Look for the Bears to show up after being brutally embarrassed on national TV last Sunday night. Chicago is 13-4 ATS since 1992 following 2 consecutive road defeats. It is 8-0 ATS since 1992 in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the Vikings are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.

4* Major Non-Conference *BEST BET* on Rams +10.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for Denver playing a 3rd road game in as many weeks. It hosts the 6-4 Dolphins next week and the tendency will be to look ahead. The Rams didn't play to their ability last week, but I'm expecting them to get a boost from the insertion of Shaun Hill, who is 7-3 ATS in his last 10 home games in the NFL. The Rams are an outstanding 9-1 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season versus excellent offensive teams averaging 6.0 yards per play or more since 1992.

5* Wiseguy AFC *BEST BET* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: Look for Cleveland to suffer a letdown after last week's gigantic win over the Bengals. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a losing record. The Texans are making the switch to Mallet at the right time. He's very familiar with Bill O'Brien's offense from their time together in New England, and he's had an extra week to get all the first team snaps. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Cleveland and are catching the Browns at a good time.

5* Wiseguy NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Giants +4.5

Bottom Line: Look for San Francisco to suffer a letdown after last Sunday's huge overtime win in New Orleans. Playing against road teams with a winning record that are off an upset victory has resulted in a 262-181 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing on teams that have been beaten by 49 points or more against the spread in their last five games, provided they are playing a conference opponent, has resulted in an 81-44 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Giants have had San Francisco's number and are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings as a result. Pound the Giants.

4* Major CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Oregon State +10

Bottom Line: The Arizona State Sun Devils are in danger of a letdown following a big win over Notre Dame that has entered them in Final 4 talk. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils, and winning by double digits at Oregon State is too much to ask. The Beavers are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in the series. They are also 8-0 ATS after giving up 450 or more total yards in 2 straight games since 1992. They have won these eight by an average of 9.7 points.

4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3

Bottom Line: FSU has been playing with fire all season, falling behind early but rallying in the second half. This is where it finally gets burned. Teams headed up by Al Golden are 8-0 ATS lifetime as a home dog of 7 points or less and have won these games by an average of 6.0 points. Golden's squads are also 7-0 ATS at home versus good offensive teams that average 31 or more ppg, 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams that outscore the opposition by 10 ppg or more and 7-0 ATS in home game versus teams with a pass completion percentage of 62% or higher. Bet Miami.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Month on Georgia -2

Bottom Line: This is a major letdown spot for Auburn after fumbling away a comeback victory and a spot in the football playoff last week. The Bulldogs will have no problem getting up for this one. As you recall, they were gut-punched by Auburn on a tipped 73-yard TD with 25 seconds left last November. 7 games or more into the season, playing against road dogs that average 6.2 yards per play or more and have averaged 525 or more total yards over their last 2 games has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1992, provided they are up against a team that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Georgia.

5* Wiseguy Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -8

Bottom Line: This is Stanford's last home game of the season, and it will make it count. The Cardinal still need a win to become bowl eligible so they will be highly motivated. They should also be the more prepared side with last week off to focus solely on this contest. The Cardinal are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after a game where they did not cover. They are also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games after playing their last game on the road. Utah has really struggled to stop the run lately, not a good sign considering it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Pound Stanford.

4* Major CFB Early *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +5.5

Bottom Line: Duke has had a nice run, but VA Tech will put more talent on the field Saturday, and that gives it an excellent shot at pulling the upset. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies are 9-1 against Duke with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. They are 4-0 at Duke during this stretch. Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Tulsa/Central Florida UNDER 56.5

Bottom Line: We are getting a very generous number because Tulsa has been over the total in 8 of 9 games this season and Central Florida has finished over the total in 3 of its last 4. The Knights had arguably their worst defensive performance of the season last game, giving up 37 points in a loss at lowly Connecticut. Now home, where they are allowing only 14.5 ppg, and having had all of last week off to focus on Tulsa, I expect to see the Knights turn in one of their best defensive performances of the season. It also works in our favor that Central Florida isn't strong offensively. It ranks 115th in the country with just 330.1 ypg. Tulsa is averaging just 20.5 ppg on the road. So rounding up, we have a range of 15-21 points based on what Central Florida gives up at home and what Tulsa scores on the road. This is significant because the Knights are 25-9 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. I'll bet the under based on this estimated stat trend.

5* Wiseguy Thursday Night Football Game of the Year on Dolphins -4

Bottom Line: According to the numbers, and the eye test, Miami is the better team, and it will be extremely hungry after last week's loss to Detroit in the closing seconds. It will draw added motivation from the thumping in received in Buffalo back in September. At Game 8 or later, playing teams like Miami that have outgained their opponent by an average of 0.4 to 1.0 yards per play has resulted in a 59-26 ATS record since 1983 if they are up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yards per play differential, provided the play on team was outgained by 100 yards or more last game. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Pound Miami.

4* Major ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on East Carolina -1.5

Bottom Line: The Pirates were stunned at Temple last time out but have had a bye week to regroup, and I fully expect them to respond tonight. They are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. Cincy is 0-8 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.

4* Major MAC Monster on Ball State +4

Bottom Line: Ball State is an unbelievable 43-16 ATS in its last 59 road games, including 15-3 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog of 7 points or less. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Cardinals lost 35-21 to Northern Illinois last week in an ugly 5-turnover performance, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

4* Major CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Northern Illinois -4.5

Bottom Line: At home on Senior Night with a chance to move into first place in the MAC West, Northern Illinois will take care of business. The Huskies are 4-0 in their last four against Toledo and 3-0 in their last 3 home meetings in the series. These 3 home wins have come by 31, 35 and 7 points. The Huskies get some additional help tonight from Toledo's banged up QB position. Woodside is questionable and won't be close to 100% if he does play. The Rockets took care of Kent State last week, but they are 0-7 ATS in road games off a win against a conference opponent under coach Campbell. Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off 2 straight wins in conference play and are up against a team that's off a double-digit road win has resulted in a 42-10 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Panthers +7

Bottom Line: The Panthers have suffered through a rough stretch but aren't about to close up shop as they are just a game back in the division entering Week 10. The Panthers played the Thursday game last week so they've had a few extra days to refocus. Mark Sanchez stepped in and did well enough to help the Eagles outlast Houston, but Philly is not better off with him under center. The Eagles will also greatly miss middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans who tore his right Achilles tendon last Sunday. Playing underdogs of 3.5-10 points that have been held to 14 points or fewer in 2 consecutive games has resulted in a 33-10 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Playing against teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that have covered the number in 3 of their last 4 games has resulted in a 142-91 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound the Panthers.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +6

Bottom Line: The Steelers have looked good in recent weeks with Big Ben playing at a high level, but I expect them to get all they want and more from the Jets. The Steelers are 15-26 ATS in road games following a win under Tomlin. They are 10-19 ATS under Tomlin after a victory of 14 or more points. Additionally, playing underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of 25% or worse that check in off 7 or more consecutive losses has resulted in a 112-67 ATS record since 1983. The Jets are way better than a 1-8 team. They've been close to beating some of the best teams in the league this season and would have had the ball bounced their way a few more times. I like their chances of knocking Pittsburgh off its high horse.

4* Major NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +6

Bottom Line: This game means more to the 49ers, who are third in their division. The Saints will be just fine if they lose since no team in the NFC South has a winning record. The Niners are 7-0 ATS under Harbaugh following a stretch of 2 losses in a 3-game span. They have won these 7 by an average of 16.1 points. The Niners are also 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that give up 24.0 ppg or more, 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games versus teams that allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt or more and 7-0 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with no loss by more than 3 points.

5* Wiseguy Blowout Game of the Year on Lions -2.5

Bottom Line: Miami has been rolling, but it runs into a buzzsaw in Detroit. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a bye, and I expect the league's top defense to be stout with the extra prep time. The Phins forced 4 turnovers last week and didn't commit one, but they are 1-14 ATS since 1992 after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or more. They have lost by an average of 12.4 points in this situation. Additionally, at Game 8 or later backing a team that holds opponents to 14-18 ppg that is up against a team that allows 18-23 ppg has resulted in a 45-19 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound the Lions.

4* MAJOR ESPN ATS *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia +20.5

Bottom Line: The Seminoles have been extremely overvalued all season and are just 2-6 ATS as a result. They should be 1-7 ATS as they were very fortunate to cover last week after falling behind 21-0 at Louisville. The Noles have only 1 win by more than 18 points in FBS action this season. Last week's 25-point loss at Georgia Tech doesn't look good for Virginia, but it hadn't lost by more than 8 points prior to that. The Seminoles are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia keeps this one within the number.

5* WISEGUY C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky -7.5

Bottom Line: When UTEP has been deemed an underdog by odds makers, it's been for good reason. The Miners are just 3-11 ATS when catching points under coach Kugler and have lost these games by 20.9 points on average. They are also 1-8 ATS under Kugler in road games falling after the first month of the season, losing these by an average of 28.9 points. Pound WKU.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +2

Bottom Line: Michigan handled Indiana last week, but I'm not sold that the Wolverines are back. They are a dismal 1-9 ATS in road games following a home win under coach Brady Hoke and have lost by an average of 8.3 points in these contests. Pound Northwestern.

4* MAJOR BIG 12 *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Oklahoma -5.5

Bottom Line: I really feel Oklahoma is the better team, and it will be lacking no motivation after the beating it was handed at Baylor last season. Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference game involving teams that average 34 ppg or more has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record since 1992. Additionally, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in weeks 10-13 that are off a win of 35 points or more over a conference opponent are 60-26 ATS since 1992.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Wyoming +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Cowboys catching better than a TD at home. They were able to snap a 4-game skid last week with an impressive win at Fresno State. Momentum has meant a lot to Wyoming, which is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points and 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games after outgaining a foe by 175 yards or more. Playing on the road back-to-back weeks is never easy, especially on a short week when the last game was a lengthy trip (Hawaii in this case). To make matters worse the Aggies are on their 4th QB. Utah State handled the Cowboys last season, but that ensures us that Wyoming will be looking for payback. Pound the Cowboys.

4* Major AAC *SYSTEM SUREFIRE* on Memphis -7

Bottom Line: Playing road favorites that have beaten the spread by 49 points or more in their last seven games has resulted in a 46-16 (74%) ATS record over the last 3 seasons. Temple snapped East Carolina's 5-game win streak last week, but it shouldn't have. The Pirates committed five costly turnovers. The fact the Pirates outgained Temple 432-135 tells the real story. Memphis is the more talented team and should take care of business tonight.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *SUREFIRE* on Browns +7

Bottom Line: The Browns aren't getting the respect they deserve from odds makers. They have only 1 loss of more than 7 points this season. They have wins over New Orleans and Pittsburgh and lost to Baltimore by only 2 points. Teams have been a phenomenal play with Brian Hoyer under center the past 5 seasons. They are 17-6 ATS with him on the field, including 8-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as a road dog. Hoyer is also 8-1 ATS versus teams like the Bengals that give up 20.4-26.4 ppg during this span. The Cincy defense hasn't lived up to expectations, ranking 30th in the NFL with 394.98 ypg allowed. That bodes well for the underdog, which is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

5* Wiseguy CFB *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Wake Forest +21

Bottom Line: Clemson is being overvalued on the road considering it has only 1 win of more than 21 points against FBS competition this season. Wake Forest has just 2 defeats of more than 21 points this season and has put forth some quality efforts when the odds have been stacked against it, going 3-1 ATS as a double-digit dog this season. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games as a favorite as the offensive hasn't held up on its end of the bargain. The Demon Deacons have been smacked by Clemson the past 2 seasons so they'll draw a little added incentive from those defeats. Pound Wake Forest.

4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Ball State +3.5

Bottom Line: The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and 13-5 ATS off a win against a against a conference rival under coach Lembo. NIU stood in Ball State's way of an undefeated record in conference play last season. Look for the Cardinals to have their revenge.

4* Major MAC *BEST BET* on Kent State +14

Bottom Line: Toledo fits into a negative wagering situation that has been money in the bank. Playing against road teams like Toledo that have a win percentage of 60-80% and have failed to cover the number in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games has resulted in a 67-29 ATS record since 1992. This system has gone 14-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Rockets haven't defeated an FBS opponent by more than 14 points this season because they are soft defensively. Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Giants +3.5

Bottom Line: The Colts fit into a negative situation that I want no part of. Consider that playing against road favorites that have covered the number 5 or 6 times in a 7-game span has resulted in a 61-30 ATS record since 1983 provided they have a win percentage of 60% to 75% and are matched up against a team that have a losing record. The Giants have been a different team at home where they are 2-1 SU and ATS and could be undefeated (led in the 4th against the 7-1 Cardinals). The Colts haven't been the same team on the road. Outside of an easy win at Jacksonville, they've struggled in their other 3 road games. They were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, trailed Denver 31-10 in the 4th before it called off the dogs and nearly blew a 24-0 lead in Houston. Pound New York.

4* Major NFL False Favorite on Chargers +2.5

Bottom Line: The wrong team is favored here. The Chargers have lost their last 2 but those were to a couple of good teams. The loss in Denver was a really tough spot (on the road in a short week). Because the Chargers played the Thursday game last week, they've had 3 extra days to prepare for this battle and the extra time should treat them well. The Chargers are still 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. November road teams that are off a road loss are 70-26 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet the Bolts.

4* Major Letdown Game of the Week on Jaguars +11.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Cincy following last week's emotional win over Baltimore. The Bengals play the Thursday game next week against division rival Cleveland and will have a tough time not looking ahead to that contest. Playing against home favorites that have a winning record on the season and are off an upset win at home over a division rival has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record since 1983.

5* Wiseguy NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: The Jets are a much better football team than their 1-7 record suggests, but it's that 1-7 record that is allowing us to catch a great number. The Jets played Green Bay to a 7-point game on the road and led that game 21-3. They've also played Detroit to a 7-point game, New England to a 2-point game and would have played Denver to a 7-point game had it not been for a pick-six at the end. This is a game the Jets have a good shot to win straight up because the strength of their defense matches up well with the strength of the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs rely heavily on their running attack, but it will be tough sledding against a New York stop unit that holds opponents to 85.4 ypg on the ground. Road dogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 66-33 ATS since 1983. Week 9 or later underdogs or pickems that have lost 7 straight or more are 91-44 ATS since 1983. November road dogs or pickems off 5 or more consecutive defeats are 42-14 ATS since 1983. Pound the Jets.

4* Major Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +12

Bottom Line: The Cowboys are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a home loss of 10 points or more. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that held their last opponent to 9 points or less has resulted in a 29-7 ATS record since 1992, provided they are taking on a team that has lost its last 2 games by 17 points or more.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico State +7.5

Bottom Line: We'll back New Mexico State at home off a bye against a Texas State team that will be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Georgia Southern. In a game between teams with 8 of more returning offensive starters, taking home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outgained by 125 or more total yards last game has resulted in a 46-17 ATS record since 1992. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Pound the Aggies.

4* Major ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech -3.5

Bottom Line: VA Tech has dropped its last two, but it is 12-3 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992 and has won these games by an average of 11.0 points. BC is 1-10 ATS in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

4* Major CFB Revenge Game of the Week on Connecticut +11

Bottom Line: UConn went down 62-17 at UCF last season, and I expect an inspired performance here as it looks to save face. UCF is off a big win over Temple and has a bye next week and it will have a tough time getting up for this one as a result. UConn is 8-0 ATS all-time off 2 consecutive road losses. It's also 7-0 ATS lifetime in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games. UCF is 1-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Knights are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Week on Maryland +4

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Penn State following last week's tough-to-swallow OT loss to Ohio State. This is a big bounce-back spot for Maryland after getting kicked at Wisconsin last week. The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after being held to 100 rushing yards or less last game. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with an excellent rushing defense that allows 100 or less rushing yards per game, after gaining 2 or less rushing yards per attempt last game, has resulted in a 42-15 ATS record since 1992. This system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* Game of the Month on Tulane +6.5

Bottom Line: Tulane is 12-4 ATS at home under coach Johnson, including 6-1 ATS in its last 7 at Yulman Stadium. Playing home teams with a +/- 40 rushing ypg margin has resulted in a 26-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons provided they've held their last 2 opponents to 100 yards or fewer on the ground and are playing a team that has been outrushed by an average of 50 ypg or more on the season. Pound Tulane.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that are outscored by an average of 5 points or more in the first half has resulted in a 29-8 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they scored 14 points or less last game. The Panthers don't have enough offense to keep up with a New Orleans side that ranks 2nd in the NFL in total offense. The Panthers rank 24th, and they haven't been good enough defensively to offset their offensive shortcomings. They've allowed an average of 31.2 points over their last six games. Field position will also likely go New Orleans' way. The Saints are 7-0 ATS lifetime in games played in Week 9 or later versus poor punt coverage teams that allow 12 yards per return or more under coach Payton. They have won by an average of 18.6 points in this spot.

5* Wiseguy ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +4.5

Bottom Line: I think some have forgotten just how good a coach Bobby Petrino is. Having had a bye week to prepare, he and his coaching staff will have their No. 1 ranked defense ready for the Noles. Petrino's college teams are 39-17 ATS all-time at home, including 29-12 ATS after the first month of the season and 23-7 ATS in the second half of the season. The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Florida State has had a few really close calls this season and will have a tough time making it out of this one alive. Pound the Cardinals.

5* Wiseguy MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Redskins +10.5

Bottom Line: The Redskins picked up a much-needed win last week and carry that momentum into Dallas tonight. With a showdown against 6-1 Arizona on deck, the Cowboys are in a look-ahead spot. Dallas has been an awful investment against losing teams at 8-20 ATS in the last 28. It is even 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games versus teams with a losing road record. The Cowboys are an unreliable 11-23 ATS as a favorite under Jason Garrett, including 7-16 ATS as a home favorite. Washington has been the play in the series as it is on a 7-1 ATS run. It is also on a 6-1 ATS run in Dallas. This is a lot of points for the 7th-ranked defense in the league to be catching. I like Washington to give the Cowboys a game tonight. Pound the Redskins.

5* Wiseguy SNF GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints -128

Bottom Line: The Saints have won 10 straight inside the Superdome and are in great position to extend their streak Sunday night. The Green Bay defense has really struggled on the road where it is giving up an average of 6 yards per play. That doesn't bode well for the Packers as the Saints are 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when they gain an average of 6 or more yards per game. They have won these 7 games by 20.6 points on average. A New Orleans offense that ranks 2nd in the league should be able to take advantage. Pound the Saints.

5* Wiseguy AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +1

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't lost in their last 12 regular-season home games and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home contests going back further. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with winning road records, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a game where they finished under the total and 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Playing against favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 34-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are coming off covers as a favorite in their last 2 games. Playing against road teams that are off a win of 21 points or more has resulted in a 35-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game. Home underdogs or pickems that average 5.4 yards per play or more are 35-11 ATS since 1983 if they've given up 400 total yards or more in their last 2 games. Pound Cincinnati.

4* Major Sunday NFL *BLOOD BATH* on Falcons +4

Bottom Line: Atlanta is 2-5 but isn't about to throw in the towel. It's just one game behind division leader Carolina in the win column, and there's a whole lot of football left to be played. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS since 1992 in games played away from home following a road blowout loss of 21 points or more. They are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. The Lions are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons after having won 3 of their last 4 games. Bet Atlanta.

4* MAJOR CFB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii +3

Bottom Line: Nevada is ripe for a letdown following last week's upset win at BYU. The Wolf Pack have been a poor investment off a win, going just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following victories. Hawaii enjoys a nice home field advantage because teams are often jetlagged after making the long trip. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team has won, or lost by less than 3 points, in 13 of the last 14 meetings. Hawaii is 6-1 in its last 7 home games versus Nevada. Bet Hawaii.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State +14.5

Bottom Line: This is a great spot to back the Nittany Lions. Off back-to-back losses, they will be focused. Furthermore, they were hammered 63-14 by Ohio State last season - the worst loss in program history since 1899. Penn State's 41 returning lettermen will be out for payback. The fact they have had an extra week to prepare only adds value to this play. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Penn State is 22-10 ATS in home games off a road loss since 1992. Coach James Franklin's teams are 9-1 ATS lifetime in home games played on a grass field. Bet Penn State.

4* MAJOR SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +17.5

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Alabama following last week's 59-0 rout of Texas A&M. Bama has a bye week next week, and I wouldn't be surprised if it starts its off week early. The Crimson Tide have been a poor investment as they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and struggled to beat Arkansas in their last road game. Playing against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points 7 games or more into the season has resulted in a 56-23 ATS record since 1992 if they are an excellent defensive team that allows 16 ppg or less and has allowed 17 points or less in 2 straight games, and if they are playing a team that allows 21-28 ppg. Teams fitting this scenario have won by just 9.6 points on average. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY 2014 CFB GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State pk

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home where they are 4-0 this season with an 18.5-point average margin of victory. Oklahoma State took it on the chin big time at TCU last week and, in case that loss isn't enough motivation, it was upset at West Virginia last season. The Cowboys are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a defeat of 21 points or more in conference play. WVU won't bring the same level of motivation into this one following last week's upset win over Baylor. The Cowboys are on a 17-4 ATS run at home versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Oklahoma State has been about as reliable as it comes at Boone Pickens, where it has just 4 losses since 2010. It is 30-4 in its last 34 at home, including 24-2 in its last 26. Pound Oklahoma State.
 

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cincinnati -10

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Cincinnati, which was upset at South Florida last season. The Bearcats won the yardage battle 350-241 but were killed by 4 turnovers. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last 5 at home versus the Bulls with all 4 victories coming by at least 14 points. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points has resulted in a 43-18 ATS record since 1992 if they give up 440 ypg or more and are playing a team that allows 390 to 440 ypg. Pound Cincy.

4* Major NFL Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Broncos -8.5

Bottom Line: This is a tough spot for the Chargers, playing in Denver's high altitude on a short week against a Broncos team that is hitting on all cylinders. Despite San Diego's 5-game win streak coming to an end last week, the public is still high on the Chargers and will be tempted to take them considering they haven't lost by more than 8 points in any of the past 4 meetings. San Diego won at Denver during the regular season last year, and the Broncos will be out to make sure that doesn't happen again. The Chargers played the Broncos to a 7-point game in Denver in last season's playoffs, but the Broncos led that game 17-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs. In a game involving teams who outpass opponents by 1.5 yards per pass or more, you want to take home favorites provided they held their last opponent to 5.5 yards per pass or less. That's because doing so has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record since 1983. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 14.4 points. Additionally, Denver is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 13.2 points. Bet the Broncos.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Miami pk

Bottom Line: When the line is +3 to -3, playing road teams with a win percentage between 51-60% has resulted in a 22-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons. Miami has had a bye week to prepare, and it will be out for some serious revenge following last season's 42-24 home loss to the Hokies. The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in road games the last 22 seasons versus teams with a win percentage between 51-60%. The Canes are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 20 points. The Hokies went down at Pitt last week as they gave up 210 yards on the ground. They are missing D-tackle Luther Maddy in the trenches and have been dealt another blow with leading tackler Chase Williams expected to miss this game with a knee injury. Without those two, Tech will have a tough time slowing down Duke Johnson and a Miami running game that has averaged 215 yards over its last 3 games. The Hokies are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Pound Miami.

4* Major Sun Belt *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana-Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns dominated Arkansas State last season on the road. They won by 16 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the score looked considering they outgained the Red Wolves by 302 yards. With all but 5 starters back, I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to take care of business again. ULL is 7-1 in its last 8 home games in the series and is an impressive 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games versus teams with a winning record. Additionally, playing against road favorites with a good run defense that allows 3.25 ypc or less, provided they averaged 5.5 ypc or more in their last 2 games, has resulted in a 69-34 ATS record since 1992. Bet ULL.

4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Texans +3.5

Bottom Line: The Texans have been more impressive than Pittsburgh this season. They've lost their last 2 but those came on the road in OT to 6-1 Dallas and at home by 5 to 5-2 Indianapolis. Because Houston played the Thursday game last week, it has had an extra three days to prepare. The extra prep time gives the edge to J.J. Watt and the Houston defense. Watt has four sacks and leads the league in QB hits with 20. Ben Roethlisberger has already been sacked 17 times and looks to be a sack-fumble waiting to happen in this one. While I'm paying a little extra for the hook (because I hate kissing my sister), I still like the Texans at +3 (the largely available line) so the following system applies. When the line is +3 to -3, playing against home teams that allowed 30 points or more last game has resulted in a 64-30 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a loss of 6 points or less. This system tightens up to 24-8 ATS the last 10 seasons. Bet Houston.

5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Month on Giants +7

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to New York's poor showing last week and Dallas' big win in Seattle. This has become a huge rivalry game in the NFC East. Both teams know each other well, and I fully expect this one to go right down to the wire. Each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less with the last 3 being decided by 5 or less. Also, 8 of the last 10 have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Underdogs or pickems that were held to 9 points or less last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983 if they average 18-23 ppg on the season and are taking on a team that averages 27 ppg or more. The dog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at Dallas. Pound New York.

4* Major AFC *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bengals +3

Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't performed well on the defensive side of the football the past 2 weeks and went 0-1-1 as a result. After a disappointing sister-kissing performance, they'll be ready to go. They crushed the Colts 42-28 last season, and I'm confident they're still the better team. Cincy is 11-1 ATS since 1992 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games and has won by an average of 2.7 points in this situation while holding foes to just 19.7 points. The Bengals are also 9-1 ATS in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game under coach Lewis and have won by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. When the line is +3 to -3, plays against teams like Indy that are off 2 straight dominating performances where they had 34+ minutes of possession time and 24+ first downs has resulted in a 26-8 ATS record since 1983. Bet the Bengals.

5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Falcons +7.5

Bottom Line: This is a huge letdown spot for Baltimore, which has won 4 of 5 and played flawless football versus Tampa Bay last week. With a big division game at Cincinnati on deck, I see the Ravens looking right past an Atlanta team that has dropped 3 straight. We are getting the Falcons at a great number because of their recent results. Consider that October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games. The Ravens are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide following a game where they covered the spread and a 0-3-1 ATS slide when they check in off a victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons are on a 14-5 ATS run when coming off a double-digit defeat. Atlanta's defense has let it down to this point, but I expect its best performance of the season here given its level of motivation. The Falcons are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL and will have enough fire power to keep this one within the number. Pound Atlanta.

5* Wiseguy SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +16.5

Bottom Line: Ole Miss is off back-to-back huge wins over Alabama and Texas A&M and has covered the spread in every game this season. As a result, odds makers have overinflated the line, giving us a great opportunity to strike with Tennessee. The Vols have played some great competition, stepping on the field with Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida. It lost to Georgia and Florida by 4 points combined, and while Florida might not be at the level of Ole Miss this season, Georgia is. The Tennessee defense has been extremely impressive, holding foes to 19.2 points and 316.3 ypg. I think the Vols will be solid enough defensively to keep this one within the number. Tennessee is a reliable 29-12 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9 (typically conference contests) since 1992. Additionally, road teams that have held their opponents to 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 100-57 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound Tennessee.

4* Major ACC *BEST BET* on Virginia +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the field goal with Virginia giving the motivational and situational edges it has in this game. The Cavs have lost 2 straight to Duke by double digits so they'll want this one just a little bit more. Plus, they will benefit from having had an extra week to game plan. The Cavs have been a sweet investment, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8. They are even 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 versus winning teams and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Bet Virginia.

5* Wiseguy Big Ten Game of the Year on Maryland -4.5

Bottom Line: Maryland was crushed by 28 at home in its last game, which means it went into its bye week hungry. Teams tend to respond following lopsided losses, especially at home, and Maryland is 21-8 ATS the last 22 seasons in home games after a defeat of 17 or more points. Iowa blew out Indiana last Saturday but was fortunate to do so. It had a week to prepare for Indiana's running attack and allowed the Hoosiers to rack up 316 yards on the ground. It was outgained for the game, and I think the Hawkeyes were in trouble if Sudfeld (QB) isn't lost to injury. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Maryland didn't run the football well at all against Ohio State, and you can bet that didn't set well with coach Edsall. His teams are 18-6 ATS all-time after being held to 75 or less rushing yards. Pound Maryland.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Houston -7

Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points that are off two straight wins against conference opponents and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a road win has resulted in a 58-20 (74%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 6.5 points on average and have lost by 12.4 points on average. Houston returns 17 starters from a team that went on the road last season and defeated Temple by 9 points. That game was even more lopsided than the score indicates as the Cougars outgained the Owls 524-300. While the Owls are improved, they haven't closed the gap enough to keeps this one within the number. Pound Houston.

4* Major Pac-12 *POWERHOUSE* on Oregon State +3

Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Oregon State at home with extra time to prepare against a Utah team it has had the number of. Oregon State went on the road and upset the Utes last season, and the Beavers won by double digits at home the previous year. The Utes are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a win and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games. The Beavers are 19-7 ATS following a bye week under coach Riley and 43-16-1 ATS in their last 60 games in October. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the schools. When odds makers are expecting a close game, it hasn't been wise to bet against Oregon State, which is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under Riley. It has won these games by an average of 3.5 points. Bet the Beavers.

5* Wiseguy NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on Jets +10

Bottom Line: The Jets haven't covered a spread all season and are being undervalued as a result. Playing road dogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, provided they are a terrible team winning 25% or less of their games on the season, has resulted in an 18-5 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, October underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 24-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Jets know the Patriots well, which is a big reason why 3 of the past 4 meetings have been decided by 3 points. Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -110

Bottom Line: The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for Pittsburgh, which has lost its last three. At home and with extra time to regroup, I expect the Panthers to get back in the win column. Pitt has been a terrific bounce-back team (in terms of the number), going 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 following a loss. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 following a win. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 at Pittsburgh. Pound the Panthers.

5* Wiseguy Sun Belt Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Lafayette +3

Bottom Line: The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-3 but have played a tough schedule with games at Ole Miss and Boise State. They were the preseason pick of most to win the Sun Belt with 17 starters back. They are off to a 1-0 start in the league, but they have no time to relax as Georgia Southern is already 4-0 in conference play. Lafayette won last season's battle 48-24 while outgaining the Bobcats 572-196. Normally, I would look to play the revenge angle here, but I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to be ready after narrowly escaping Georgia State last time out. Texas State is 3-2 and averaging 38.6 ppg but hasn't played the same caliber of opponents as Lafayette. Besides, the Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in road games versus teams that average 31 ppg or more under coach Hudspeth, and they have won these games by an average of 12.3 points. Pound ULL.

5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rams +4

Bottom Line: Playing against teams like the 49ers that carry a win percentage of 51% to 60% has resulted in a 130-80 ATS record since 1983 if they are matched up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Additionally, playing on home teams that have lost 2 of their last 3 against the spread has resulted in a 127-75 ATS record since 1983 if they have a win percentage of 25% or worse and are playing a winning team. The focus in San Francisco seems to be on the team's relationship with coach Harbaugh, not football. Plus, the Niners travel to defending AFC champ Denver next week and will have a hard time not looking ahead to that game. This is a great spot for the home team to pull off an upset. Pound the Rams.

5* Wiseguy AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +7.5

Bottom Line: Firing the head coach makes a statement. It sends the message that nobody's job is safe. Fueled by an 0-4 start and having had a bye week to gear up, I expect to see a completely different Oakland Raiders team Sunday. Playing on underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 ppg or less has resulted in a 55-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons, provided they gave up 35 points or more last time out. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 7.7 points on average but have lost by just 4.4 points. The Raiders have been a good bounce-back team at 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Also, the underdog has completely dominated this matchup going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Oakland.

4* Major NFL *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Jets +10.5

Bottom Line: After 4 consecutive losses, Rex Ryan's job is on the line. So is Geno Smith's. I expect both to respond. This is a terrible spot for Denver, which takes the road for just the 2nd time this season and is riding high following a convincing win over Arizona. With the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots on deck, the Broncos will have a tough time getting up for the Jets. I'll gladly take the points in a game the New York has an excellent chance to win outright. Turnovers have been an issue for the Jets, but Denver has forced only 3 all season. Plus, New York is one of the best defensive teams in the league and has the ability to pressure Manning. It's tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 17. Playing against road teams after a win by 21 or more points that are up against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons (14-2 ATS the last 5 seasons). Also, plays on any team after 5 straight games of forcing 1 turnover or less against an opponent that is off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse has resulted in a 40-12 ATS record since 1983. Desperate teams are the best teams, and this is a very desperate spot for Rex Ryan and company.

4* Major AFC East *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Bills +3

Bottom Line: Playing against teams with a winning record that are off an upset with at home and are up against another winning team has resulted in an 81-38 ATS record since 1983. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Additionally, playing against road teams that scored 30 points or more last game and are up against a team that scored 3 points or less in the 1st half last game has resulted in an 85-41 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. The Pats are a lousy 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 30 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Orton's teams are 5-0 ATS all-time in his starts versus teams with a win percentage of 55-65%.