Winning Sports Picks

4* MAJOR NFL *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Jaguars +14.5

4* MAJOR NFL *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Texans -6.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *BET BET* on Colts -3

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Arizona State +5.5

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Missouri +3

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Ohio +10

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Purdue +4

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Duke +7.5

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Boise St/Virginia UNDER 49

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Redskins/Giants UNDER 44

4* Major NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Cincinnati +10

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Colts -6.5

4* MAJOR NFL *SNF ATS NO BRAINER* on Seahawks +3.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Eagles -4.5

4* MAJOR NFL *SUREFIRE TOTAL* on Pats/Bills OVER 44

5* WISEGUY *NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH* on UCLA -16.5

4* MAJOR NCAAF *UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG* on Ole Miss +7

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH* on Penn State -9

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH* on Stanford +9.5

4* MAJOR NCAAF *BOOKIE SLAUGHTER* on Arkansas -11

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Notre Dame +3

4* MAJOR NCAAF *ATS LINE MISTAKE* on Auburn +7

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Florida State -7.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 42.5

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE ATS WINNER* on Louisville +6.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Eagles -3

4* MAJOR NFL *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Buccaneers -3

4* MAJOR NFL *ATS NO BRAINER* on Colts -2.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Rams +4.5

3* NCAAF *NON-CONF ATS BLOWOUT* on Nebraska -27

4* MAJOR *BOOKIE SLAUGHTER* on Michigan State -3.5

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Florida -20.5

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Memphis -13

3* NCAAF *IN-STATE RIVALRY ATS CASH* on Iowa -3

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Utah State/Utah UNDER 44.5

5* WISEGUY NFL *BEST BET* on Patriots -7

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Louisiana Tech -2

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Virginia Tech +14.5

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Purdue +7

4* MAJOR NCAAF *SUREFIRE WINNER* on Kentucky -17

4* MAJOR NCAAF *TOTAL DOMINATOR* on Utep/Arkansas OVER 49.5

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Northwestern +11

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Washington +13

5* WISEGUY NCAAF *BEST BET* on Vanderbilt +3

4* MAJOR SUPER BOWL "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Patriots/Seahawks UNDER 48.5

Bottom Line: Odds makers have set the bar too high for this one. The UNDER has been the play for both teams down the stretch as New England is 5-2-1 under in its last 8 games and Seattle is 5-3 under in its last 8 and would have been 6-2 under had the NFC Championship not went to OT. Additionally, Belichick's teams are 25-11 UNDER since 1992 in games played away from home versus teams that average 24.0 PPG or more. If the game took place in the second half of the season, this system tightens up to 17-5. This system speaks to Belichick's ability to concoct game plans to slow down even the best offensive teams. The UNDER is also 4-1 in New England's last 5 Super Bowl games and 11-5 in Seattle's last 16 games versus team with a winning record. Seattle was the #1 ranked defensive team in the NFL during the regular season. New England ranked #8 in scoring defense. Plus, it has held opponents to just 85.1 ypg on the ground over its last 10 games. So much of what Seattle does offensively is set up by the run, but it will have a tough time going off on the ground versus this New England defense. Bet the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* on Patriots +2 (Note: Not sure why the line feed shows -1 because I locked in at +2 well over a week ago. With that said, I like the Pats strong regardless and the play will be graded according to the -1 line.)

Bottom Line: While Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson are good, Brady and Belichick are better. The Patriots have lost their last two Super Bowls, but that's even more reason to back them. I think they'll want this one just a little bit more as a result. If you watched the NFC Championship, you know how fortunate Seattle is to be here. Russell Wilson struggled despite getting plenty of help from the running game. New England's run defense is a lot better than Green Bay's, which means Wilson will likely be asked to outduel Brady, and the odds aren't in favor of that. Seattle has been excellent offensively this season averaging 375 yards per game. But, New England is 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 375 ypg or more, and it has won these games by an average of 16.7 points. Pound the Pats.

4* MAJOR AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *SUREFIRE* on Colts +7

Bottom Line: The Patriots have been a bad play in the postseason. They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships contests. New England crushed Indy 42-20 in November, but the Colts are on a 34-16 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss where they gave up 28 points or more. The Indy defense has been lights out in the playoffs. That's a great sign because the Colts are 6-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games under coach Pagano. They've won by an average of 8.3 points in this situation. The Pats are 0-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game under coach Belichick. They have won in this spot but only by an average of 1.3 points. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY NFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Packers +7.5

Bottom Line: Green Bay lost 36-16 on this field clear back in the season opener, but a lot has changed since then. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to take the Seahawks right down to the wire. The biggest thing that has changed is Green Bay's run defense. The Packers allowed Seattle to run for 207 yards in the first meeting, but they have held their last 9 opponents to an average of 92.9 yards. Not surprisingly, they are 8-1 during this span. Seattle has given up only 15.9 ppg this season, but the Packers are 9-1 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 17.0 ppg or less under coach McCarthy. Green Bay won these games by an average of 4.3 points. Pound the Packers.

5* WISEGUY CFB CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Ohio State +7

Bottom Line: I backed Ohio State as a 10-point dog against Alabama and watched the Buckeyes win outright. The reasoning was simple - Urban Meyer is perhaps the best coach in college football. He had his team ready for the Crimson Tide, and I expect him to have them ready for Oregon. Teams headed up by Meyer are 21-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role. His teams are also 12-1 ATS all-time off an upset victory. Pound Ohio State.

5* WISEGUY DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Broncos -7

Bottom Line: Indy is 0-6 ATS in road games played in the second half of the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-75% over the last 3 seasons, and it has lost these games by an average of 24.9 points. Denver is on a 21-10 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a 16-3 ATS run when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. Pound the Broncos.

4* MAJOR NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Cowboys +6

Bottom Line: Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on grass and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 road games when playing with 6 days of rest or less. The Cowboys are 20-9 ATS as an underdog under coach Garrett, including 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

5* WISEGUY NFC PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR on Seahawks -10.5

Bottom Line: The Seahawks enter the playoffs on a 6-game win streak, which is significant because they are 6-0 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins under coach Carroll.  Seattle is 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after 2 straight wins of 10 points or more. It is also 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after averaging 6.0 yards per play or more in each of its last 2 games. Pound Seattle.

4* MAJOR AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS *SUREFIRE* on Ravens +7

Bottom Line: Baltimore has been money in the postseason. It's 6-0 ATS in its last 6 playoff games and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 road playoff games. The road team has been the play in this matchup as it is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New England. Additionally, Baltimore is 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

4* MAJOR GODADDY BOWL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Toledo -3.5

Bottom Line: Arkansas State looked unstoppable on the ground last game when it racked up 469 rushing yards against New Mexico State. It won't be able to run at will against a Toledo defense that ranks 17th in the country against the run with 120.5 ypg allowed. The Red Wolves are on a 0-11 ATS slide following a game where they gained 300 or more rushing yards and have lost by an average of 10.1 points in these games. Bet Toledo.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Cowboys UNDER 49

Bottom Line: When the total is 42.5 to 49 points 8 games or more into the season, playing the UNDER on home teams that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt that are up against a team that allows 5.9-6.7 yards per pass attempt has resulted in a 27-5 record since 1983, provided the team we are playing on has averaged 8 passing yards per attempt or more in its last 2 games. This system is 4-0 the last 3 seasons. The Lions are on a 6-0 UNDER run in road games played on turf and a 7-0 UNDER run in road games versus teams that allow an average of 7 yards per pass attempt or more. Pound the UNDER.

5* WISEGUY WILD CARD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: The Bengals lost 27-0 in Indianapolis in October, but that won't keep me from pounding them given the strong history in their favor. Playing road teams that check in off a road loss and are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 76-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss where they were held to less than 9 points under coach Lewis. They have won in this spot by an average of 5.8 points. This Cincy team has failed to make it out of the wild card round each of the past 3 seasons, and that provides added motivation. Pound the Bengals.

5* WISEGUY NFL PLAYOFFS *BEST BET* on Ravens +4

Bottom Line: The Ravens are showing some nice value catching better than a field goal. Prior to each team winning impressively in this season's two regular-season meetings, we had seen 5 straight and 9 of 11 matchups in the series decided by 3 points or less. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 wild card games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road playoff games. Pound Baltimore.

5* WISEGUY BIRMINGHAM BOWL *BEST BET* on East Carolina +7

Bottom Line: ECU concluded the regular season with a disappointing 2-point loss to UCF, but it is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons following defeat. The Pirates are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 versus SEC foes. ECU has an explosive offense that put up huge numbers against several power conference schools. I think 7 points is too many for the books to be giving to this explosive offensive team, especially considering how anemic Florida has been offensively. The Gators left it all out on the field in their last game against in-state rival FSU only to come up short. They managed to cover the spread but are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a cover. The Florida program is in disarray with Muschamp gone and interim D.J. Durkin soon to follow. I think the Florida players just want to forget this season and move on. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY TAXSLAYER BOWL *BEST BET* on Iowa +3.5

Bottom Line: The Hawkeyes have been an outstanding investment this time of year at 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. I'm not hesitating to take the points as I believe the wrong team is favored. This line has a lot to do with the respect the public gives the SEC, but we have seen in these bowls that the SEC isn't as strong as in years past, and this is a middle of the road team from the weaker division. The Volunteers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games versus teams with a winning record. Pound Iowa.

4* MAJOR SUGAR BOWL BAILOUT on Ohio State +10

Bottom Line: Urban Meyer is one of the best in the business, and I fully expect him to have his Buckeyes ready to play. His teams are 20-5 ATS all-time in the underdog role and 23-6 ATS all-time when getting 2 weeks of preparation time or more.

4* MAJOR ROSE BOWL *BLOOD BATH* on Oregon -8

Bottom Line: Florida State is undefeated by the skin of its teeth, but it finally meets its match here. Oregon is 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more in its last game under coach Helfrich, 6-0 ATS after a win of 35 points or more under Helfrich and 7-0 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 125 yards or more under their current coach. Florida State has been down early numerous times this season but has been able to claw its way back. I don't see it being able to claw its way back against an explosive Oregon team.

5* WISEGUY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota +5

Bottom Line: It's a major letdown for Missouri to be playing an unranked opponent in its bowl game after a disappointing performance against Alabama in the SEC Championship. That game against Alabama mattered way more to the Tigers than this one does. Minnesota, on the other hand, sees this game as a great opportunity, and it has been extremely competitive against good teams in recent seasons, going 10-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record the last 2 seasons, including 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus such teams. Pound the Gophers.

5* WISEGUY PEACH BOWL *BEST BET* on Ole Miss +3.5

Bottom Line: The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games while the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS versus excellent passing teams that average 275 passing YPG or more under coach Freeze and has defeated these teams by an average of 8.0 points. Pound Ole Miss.

5* WISEGUY MUSIC CITY BOWL *BEST BET* on Notre Dame +9

Bottom Line: We are getting Notre Dame at a great number because of its poor finish. Having had a month to regroup, I fully expect the Fighting Irish to give LSU a game. Notre Dame is on a 23-10 ATS run in road/neutral field game against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%, and it has won these games by an average of 3.9 points. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Pound the Fighting Irish.

5* WISEGUY LIBERTY BOWL *BEST BET* on Texas A&M +2.5

Bottom Line: West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. It is also 0-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Aggies.

4* MAJOR NFL *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Packers -7

Bottom Line: The Packers do an exceptional job of taking care of the football, and that spells doom for Detroit, which is 0-11 ATS since 1992 in games played in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 1 or fewer turnovers per game. It has lost these games by 18.2 points on average. The Lions are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in home games versus mistake prone teams that average 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. It is 6-0 ATS this season after playing its last game on the road. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

5* WISEGUY NFL GAME OF THE WEEK on Panthers +3

Bottom Line: I like the Panthers catching a field goal given how successful they've been in the series of late. They are 3-1 in the last 4 meetings with the loss coming by only 2 points. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with neither loss during this stretch coming by more than 2 points. The Panthers are starting to resemble the team that went 12-4 last season, holding their last 3 foes to 17 points or fewer. Carolina is 58-25 ATS all-time versus teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 56-36 ATS all-time when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. The Falcons are 12-25 ATS since 1992 in home games following a double-digit victory. The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Pound the Panthers.

4* MAJOR NFL *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Bears +7

Bottom Line: Odds makers have missed the mark. The Bears are 8-2 in their last 10 against the Vikings and haven't lost by more than 7 points during this stretch. Playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points that check in off a road defeat has resulted in a 28-8 ATS record since 1983, provided they have a win percentage of 40-49% and are playing a team with a win rate of 25-40%. This rare system is 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons.

4* MAJOR Holiday Bowl *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nebraska +7.5

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to the firing of Bo Pelini. Nebraska is 25-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games since 1992. USC is 6-17 ATS after any win over the last 3 seasons, 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road/neutral field games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

5* WISEGUY PRE-NEW YEAR's BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +3

Bottom Line: Penn State has the edge on the sidelines with James Franklin, and it also has the edge on the field with a stifling defense that ranks No. 1 in the nation against the run. The Nittany Lions match up with Boston College extremely well since the Eagles depend on their run game to move the football. It will be nothing doing on the ground against this stout Penn State defense. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 December games. Penn State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Pound Penn State.

4* MAJOR Military Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Virginia Tech +3

Bottom Line: Playing on any team 7 games or more into the season that averages 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry (VA Tech) and is up against a team that allows 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry (Cincy) has resulted in a 25-4 ATS record the last 5 seasons, provided the play on side allowed 75 rushing yards or less last game. Additionally, the Hokies are 12-3 ATS in road/neutral field battles following a close win of 7 points or less over a conference opponent under coach Beamer.

5* WISEGUY St. Petersburg Bowl *BEST BET* on NC State +3

Bottom Line: The Wolfpack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. They are also on an impressive 22-10 ATS run in road/neutral field venues when getting more than the typical week or preparation time. UCF has struggled when playing away from its home turf. The Knights have won by more than 3 points in just 2 of 6 road/neutral field games this season. This included a really bad loss at UConn. Pound NC State.

5* WISEGUY BAHAMAS BOWL *BEST BET* on Central Michigan +4

Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to Western Kentucky's win over Marshall. I'm not sold on the Hilltoppers. Defense wins championships, and Western Kentucky is arguably the worst defensive team in the country. Central Mich is stout defensively, ranking 16th in the land in total defense with 331.3 ypg allowed. CMU is on a 21-8 ATS run versus excellent passing teams like WKU that average 275 ypg or more through the air. The Chippewas are on an 11-3 ATS run versus poor run defenses that allow 4.75 yards per carry or more. The Chippewas are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a winning record. The Chipps should cover this number behind solid defensively play and a strong running game. Pound CMU.

4* MAJOR POINSETTIA BOWL *PUNISHER* on Navy +3

Bottom Line: Navy is a nasty 71-35 ATS in road games since 1992, including 10-2 ATS during this stretch when catching 3 points or less. SDSU is 1-10 ATS since 1992 after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread.

5* WISEGUY Boca Raton Bowl *BEST BET* on Marshall -9

Bottom Line: The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 December contests, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus C-USA schools. All of these trends don't bode well for the Huskies, but here's the clincher: NIU is 0-7 ATS since 1992 in road/neutral field contests versus opponents that carry an average margin of victory of 17 PPG or more on the season. Pound the Thundering Herd.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bengals +4

Bottom Line: Cincy has been awesome at home in recent years so the fact it has lost its last 2 home games in blowout fashion isn't sitting well. The Bengals also don't like the fact they've been blown out twice in primetime. I expect them to be the more motivated team tonight as a result. The Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday Night Football games. Pound Cincy.

4* MAJOR Miami Beach Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on BYU +2

Bottom Line: BYU has better talent and coach Bronco Mendenhall has more experience than his counterpart preparing his team for big games. This is the 10th consecutive bowl appearance for the Cougars while Memphis is playing in its first bowl since 2008. BYU has won 6 of its last 8 bowl games and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Cougars are 18-7 ATS under coach Mendenhall when playing against teams with a win percentage of 60-75%. Bet BYU.

5* WISEGUY NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* GAME OF THE YEAR on Raiders +6

Bottom Line: Playing against any team that is coming off an upset victory at home, provided they have a winning record on the season, has resulted in a 33-13 (72%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have won 2 of their last 3 games has resulted in an 83-38 (69%) ATS record the last 31 seasons, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60% and are playing a losing team in the 2nd half of the season. Pound the Raiders.

5* WISEGUY DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE WEEK on Dolphins -6.5

Bottom Line: The Vikings have covered the number in each of their last 4 but 3 of those were at home. They are just 2-5 on the road this season and in a historically bad spot. Consider that they are 6-16 ATS in road games after covering the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games the last 22 seasons. After getting taken out being the woodshed the past 2 weeks, I expect Miami to respond at home. Pound the Dolphins.

5* WISEGUY NFL "TOTAL" DOMINATOR on Chargers/49ers OVER 41.5

Bottom Line: Playing the over on home teams that have gained 250 or less total yards in 2 straight games in a matchup of teams with a yards per play differential of +/- 0.4 has resulted in a 41-16 (72%) record the last 31 seasons. This system is 9-1 the last 10 seasons. Additionally, playing the over on teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points that are off a home loss by 10 or more points and are up against an opponent that's off a road loss has resulted in a 54-26 (67.5%) record the last 10 seasons. Pound the over.

4* MAJOR New Mexico Bowl *BEST BET* on Utah State -10

Bottom Line: UTEP must be able to run the football to be successful, but it will have a difficult time running the ball on a Utah State defense that ranks 26th in the nation against the run. With extra time to prepare for UTEP's running game, I expect the Aggies to have success slowing it down. I also expect the Aggies to be highly motivated after getting embarrassed at Boise State last game. Utah State is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons when getting a bye week's worth of time or more to prepare for an opponent. It is also on a 7-0 ATS run in road/neutral field games following any loss. UTEP is 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning record under coach Kugler and has lost to these teams by 30 PPG on average.

5* WISEGUY NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Titans/Jaguars OVER 40

Bottom Line: The Titans are 9-1 over after scoring 7 points or less in the 1st half in 2 straight games the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average of 57.0 total points scored in this spot. The Titans are 12-2 over lifetime after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. We've seen an average of 53.5 total points scored in this situation. Playing the over on road teams when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points has resulted in a 53-23 (70%) record the last 31 years, provided they are coming off 2 or more straight unders and are a team that has been outscored by 10 PPG or more on the season. We've seen an average of 45.5 total points scored with this system. Pound the over.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3

Bottom Line: New Orleans has way more to play for as it is still in the playoff hunt. Plus, I'm not hesitating to side with Drew Brees over Jay Cutler. Both teams have struggled defensively, but New Orleans has the edge with the far superior offense. The Bears are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus strong offensive teams that average 350 ypg or more. They have lost these games by an average of 13.2 points. They are also 0-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. They have lost these games by 18.0 points on average. Pound the Saints.

4* MAJOR NFC WEST *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers +10

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to San Francisco's bad loss to the Raiders. The 49ers clearly suffered a letdown in the aftermath of losing a big game with Seattle. This is a proud 49ers team. Harbaugh is proud. Kaepernick is proud. The list goes on and on. This very well could be the end of the Harbaugh era and the end of the 49ers' run of NFC championship games, but they won't go down without a fight and would like nothing more than to keep Seattle from winning the division. Playing road teams off a road loss that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 73-35 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Playing underdogs or pickems in the 2nd half of the season that are off an upset loss on the road, provided they have a win percentage of 51-60%, has resulted in a 25-6 ATS record since 1983. Lastly, the 49ers are 9-0 ATS under Harbaugh when checking in with 2 losses in a 3-game game. They have won these 9 by an average of 13.6 points.

5* WISEGUY NFL DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH GAME OF THE YEAR on Chiefs -10

Bottom Line: The Chiefs will be out for some serious revenge against an Oakland team that defeated them 24-20 Nov. 20. That loss started a 3-game skid for the Chiefs that has them on the brink of falling out of the AFC playoff hunt. I expect them to take their frustrations out all over an inferior opponent in Arrowhead Sunday. Playing home favorites of 3.5-10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are also coming off an upset loss has resulted in a 65-28 (70%) ATS record since 1983. Recently, this system is 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Pound the Chiefs.

5* WISEGUY NFL UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK on Bills +5.5

Bottom Line: Buffalo has an excellent chance of pulling off this upset. Green Bay is 3-3 on the road and would have covered this number in just 1 road game this season. The Packers have never won in Buffalo where they are 0-5. I like having the veteran Kyle Orton in this spot. He knows a thing of two about going toe to toe with Aaron Rodgers and coming out on top. While with Kansas City in 2011, he ended Green Bay's then 19-game win streak. This is also a tough situational spot for Green Bay, hitting the road after playing the Monday night game. The Packers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday nighter. Pound the Bills.

4* MAJOR CFB RIVALRY *BLOOD BATH* on Army +15

Bottom Line: This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but I give Army a slight motivational edge. Navy has a bowl game to look forward to while Army does not. The Black Knights will be treating this as their bowl game. Army should also benefit from extra preparation time. It has had 3 weeks to gear up for this contest, 6 more days than Navy. Navy has won 12 straight in the series, and that's not sitting well with the Black Knights. Army appeared close to breaking through, playing the Midshipmen to 6-point game in 2011 and a 4-point game in 2012 before getting embarrassed 34-7 last season. Army returns 16 starters that remember how badly that loss hurt. The Black Knights may come up short, but should give Navy a game here. The Midshipmen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus teams with a losing record.

5* WISEGUY Thursday Night Football *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cardinals +4.5

Bottom Line: The Cardinals found a way to get it done in Kansas City Sunday despite playing less than their best on both sides of the football. That performance against an AFC foe actually bodes well for us as the Cards are 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game under Arians and 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game under Arians. The Rams will be out for revenge for last month's 31-14 loss in Arizona, but they are 11-30 ATS since 1992 when looking for same-season revenge. Plus, Fisher's squads are just 15-33 ATS all-time when laying 3.5 to 7.0 at home. Playing against home favorites off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent has resulted in a 22-4 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Arizona.

5* WISEGUY MNF *BEST BET* on Falcons +14

Bottom Line: Green Bay is being overvalued at home against an Atlanta team that has turned the corner. The Falcons have played good football over their last five games, going 3-2 during this stretch with the 2 losses coming by a total of 3 points to very good Detroit and Cleveland teams. Atlanta's improvement has come from the defensive side of the football as it has allowed an average of only 19.5 points over its last four games. The Falcons are 8-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. They have won by an average of 7.1 points in these games. Playing against favorites of 10.5 or more points in the 2nd half of the season that have beaten the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games has resulted in an 11-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by 13.3 points on average but have won by just 8.8 points on average. Lastly, the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay. Pound Atlanta.

4* MAJOR SUNDAY NFC *BEST BET* on Redskins +2.5

Bottom Line: Playing against favorites that have covered the spread in 3 consecutive games or more, provided they have a win percentage of 40% to 49% and are playing a losing team, has resulted in a 39-15 ATS record over the last 31 years. Washington is a better team than its record looks and has been at its best this season with McCoy getting the snaps. Washington is the superior team statistically on both sides of the football, ranking 11th in both total offense and defense while the Rams rank 25th in total offense and 14th in total defense. In the games St. Louis has won, it has been aided by a plus-7 turnover margin. Washington has a good job of taking care of the football with McCoy in the game. He has just a 1.1 interception percentage. The Rams are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games versus teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more. They have lost to these teams by an average of 19.6 points.

4* MAJOR AFC NORTH *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Steelers +3.5

Bottom Line: After 2 losses in 3 games, the Steelers need this game. Recent history says they'll respond as they are 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus winning teams and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus teams with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 11-2 in its last 13 trips to Cincinnati. In a big game, I'm going with Big Ben over Dalton. Grab the points.

5* WISEGUY AFC NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR on Browns +4

Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road blowout loss of at least 14 points has resulted in a 78-42 against the spread record over the last 31 years. The Browns are still very much alive in the AFC playoff race, and I'm expecting Brian Hoyer to rise to the occasion and silence all the Johnny Manziel talk. The Colts have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL, and Hoyer has been able to take advantage against such teams going 14-5-1 ATS in his last 20 games versus teams that give up 6.1-8.1 passing yards per attempt. Additionally, Hoyer is on a 9-0 ATS run in games when the total of 45.5-52.5 and has led his teams to victories by an average of 15.9 points in these games. Pound Cleveland.

4* MAJOR BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL DOMINATOR on Ohio State/Wisconsin UNDER 52.5

Bottom Line: Ohio State will be limited offensively following the loss of J.T. Barrett. Wisconsin boasts an elite defense, and it should find plenty of success slowing down 3rd-string QB Cardale Jones. With the loss of Barrett, the Buckeyes lose the offensive balance that has made them so successful. I expect them to be a run-heavy team Saturday. Wisconsin will look to run the football as well because that's what it does. The Badgers rank 119th in the nation in passing offense. Ohio State has the horses to slow down Wisconsin's running game. It held the Badgers to just 104 yards on the ground in last season's meeting. In a matchup of 2 quality defenses that have the benefit of knowing what is coming the large majority of the time (running plays), I'll take the under.

5* WISEGUY SEC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Missouri +14.5

Bottom Line: Alabama is getting a little too much respect in this neutral field battle. The Crimson Tide have played 5 neutral field/road games this season and didn't win any of them by more than 14 points. Mizzou has been an awesome investment at 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. They are also 9-0 ATS versus good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. Bama is 0-6 ATS after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored under Saban. Saban's teams are 0-7 ATS all-time after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Pound Mizzou.

4* MAJOR BEDLAM *BLOOD BATH* on Oklahoma State +21

Bottom Line: Besides the fact this is a huge rivalry game, the Cowboys can become bowl eligible with a win. That provides added incentive here. It also helps that they've had an extra week to prepare. The series has been tight of late with 3 of the last 4 games being decided by 9 points or less. The one that wasn't was a 44-10 Oklahoma State victory. Playing against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a good rushing defense that allows 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game, has resulted in a 23-3 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR PAC-12 *PUNISHER* on Oregon -13

Bottom Line: The Ducks are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last 7 games with each of their last 6 wins coming by at least 18 points. They have just 1 blemish on their record - Arizona - and I expect them to avenge that loss in impressive fashion. The Ducks are 6-0 ATS after leading their previous game by 24 points or more at the half under coach Helfrich. They have won by an average of 32.8 points in this situation. Oregon is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral field battles after 3 straight covers as a favorite of 7 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It's won by an average of 27.8 points in this situation. Oregon is one runaway freight train I'm not about to step in front of.

5* WISEGUY MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: This line is an overreaction to Bowling Green losing its last 2. The Falcons had nothing to play in either game as they had already wrapped up the division. Now, they have everything to play for as they have an opportunity to make it back-to-back MAC titles. This is Northern Illinois' 5th straight MAC Championship game, but it has been far from dominant in the previous 4, going 2-2 with the largest margin of victory at the end of regulation being 3 points (won by 7 in OT in the other). Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS the last 3 seasons in road/neutral field venues versus conference foes. Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss to a conference foe as a favorite of 10 or more, provided the game is being played after the first month of the season, has resulted in a 55-25 ATS record since 1992. Pound the Falcons.

4* MAJOR TNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Cowboys -3.5

Bottom Line: Chicago is 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons versus good ball-control teams that average 32 minutes of possession time or more per game. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 350 yards per game or more. They are 0-7 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt. Chicago is 0-8 SU and ATS in games Jay Cutler plays when the total is 48-55. It has lost these games by an average of 20.1 points. The Bears are also 0-8 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games under coach Trestman, losing these contests by an average of 15.5 points.

5* WISEGUY CFB *BEST BET* on ECU -6.5

Bottom Line: Playing on excellent running teams that average 4.8 yards per rush or more when they are taking on a poor running team that averages 3.0-3.5 yards per rush, provided it is a conference matchup, has resulted in a 95-35 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is 21-3 ATS this season, and I'm going to ride it. Pound the Pirates.

5* WISEGUY MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jets +7

Bottom Line: The Jets were brutally embarrassed by the Bills last Monday, which is all the more reason to back them here. Playing teams off a loss of 28 points or more that have been outscored by an average of 4.0 ppg or more on the season has resulted in a 63-32 ATS record the last 10 seasons. The Jets were held to 3 points last Monday but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after being held to less than 15 points. Miami put up 36 in Denver but is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points. The Dolphins are 9-21-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings. Bet the Jets.