Winning Sports Picks

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -153

Bottom Line: The Reds have had Chicago's number, going 38-14 in the last 52 meetings.  Look for Cincinnati to continue its dominance over the Cubs behind a gem from Latos.  The Reds are 27-10 in Latos' last 37 home starts and 12-1 in his last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Latos' clubs are 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus the Cubs, during which he's posted a 1.88 ERA.  Chicago's Turner has a 6.03 ERA in 12 starts this season and was rocked in his most recent start against Cincinnati earlier this month.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB Run Line Blowout Game of the Week on Mariners -1.5 +112

Bottom Line: Texas took Game 1 2-0 and leads the season series 8-5 so Seattle will be lacking no motivation when it hits the field this evening.  The Mariners are 9-0 in their last 9 games following a loss.  They are also 9-0 in their last 9 games after being held to 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Clearly, this is a club that takes losing seriously.  Seattle has the edge on the mound with Paxton, who Texas isn't familiar with at all.  The Mariners are 4-0 in Paxton's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 4-0 in his last 4 starts in the 2nd game of a series.  The Mariners are 14-5 in their last 19 overall and 8-2 in their last 10 at home.  The Rangers are 16-44 in their last 60 overall and 3-14 in their last 17 games following a win.  They are 2-10 in Martinez's last 12 starts, 1-8 in his last 9 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200.  Pound the Mariners on the run line.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Monday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Royals -133

Bottom Line: The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter.  They are also 4-0 in Shields' last 4 starts while the Yankees are 0-3 in Pineda's last 3 starts.  Shields is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Yankees, holding them to 1 earned run in 13 innings.  This is a tough spot for New York because it is off an emotional extra-innings win and starts a 3-game series in Detroit tomorrow.  The Royals, who are a major-league best 24-7 since July 22, are back from a lengthy road trip and can settle in for 10 straight at home.  Pound KC.

5* Wiseguy ESPN Sunday Night Baseball *BEST BET* on Angels +134

Bottom Line: The Halos are showing a ton of value at this price given Weaver's track record with the A's.  He has a 2.53 ERA in 28 starts against them.  The Angels are 10-3 in his last 13 starts in the series and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts.  LA is a perfect 11-0 in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons in Weaver's starts versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 0.5 runs per game or more.  LA has won these 11 by an average of 3.7 runs.  The Angels are also 4-0 in Weaver's last 4 starts in the 3rd game of a series.  Kazmir has an ERA of 4.66 in 5 career starts versus the Angels.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Dodgers -158

Bottom Line: The Dodgers are 12-2 in their last 14 versus the Mets, including 5-0 in their last 5 at home in the series, and I expect them to continue their dominance behind Greinke.  The Dodgers are 20-6 in Greinke's last 26 home starts.  His clubs are 22-4 all-time in his home starts versus NL clubs with a batting averaging of .250 or lower.  Also, Greinke's clubs are 53-15 all-time in his starts as a favorite of -150 or higher.  Greinke has a 2.48 ERA at home while deGrom has a 3.69 road ERA.  Greinke has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts against the Mets spanning 12 innings.  deGrom walked away with a 4.50 ERA versus the Dodgers when he gave up 3 homers in a loss to them earlier this season.  Pound LA.

5* Wiseguy Sunday Night Baseball Game of the Month on A's -142

Bottom Line: Oakland holds the advantage with Lester going.  The southpaw has a 2.51 ERA and a 1.111 WHIP on the season.  His clubs are 10-1 in his last 11 starts.  The Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.150.  Atlanta's Minor has a 5.33 ERA and a 1.576 WHIP on the season.  The Braves are 2-10 in Minor's last 12 interleague starts.  Oakland is now percentage points behind the Angels in a division it had led since April 23.  I expect that to provide some added motivation tonight.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Red Sox -162

Bottom Line: Boston's 4-game win streak came to an end with last night's extra-innings loss, but I like the Red Sox to bounce back strong.  Houston's Peacock has a 6.47 ERA on the road, a 10.53 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 14.75 ERA in a pair of starts versus Boston.  The Astros are 0-4 in his last 4 starts, 0-9 in his last 9 starts on regular rest (4 days) and 0-2 in his starts versus Boston.  De La Rosa has quietly been really good, especially at home where he has a
1.97 ERA.  The Red Sox are 31-13 in their last 44 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.  The Astros are 5-16 in the last 21 meetings and 1-8 in the last 9 meetings in Boston.  Pound the Red Sox.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Royals -139

Bottom Line: Kansas City's Duffy has a 2.57 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP on the season.  His ERA and WHIP are even lower on the road. His WHIP is extremely significant because the Twins are 0-17 this season versus AL starters with a WHIP of 1.100 or better, and they have lost these contests by 3.8 runs on average.  The Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Twins.  Expect to see some rust on Nolasco, who hasn't made a big-league start since July 6.  He has a 5.90 ERA on the season.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Year on Cardinals -161

Bottom Line: I love the Cardinals at home against the Padres tonight.  The Cards are 75-34 in the last 109 meetings, including 40-12 in the last 52 in St. Louis.  The Cards are also a perfect 14-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 3 seasons versus NL teams that average 3.8 runs per game or less.  They have won these games by 4.6 runs on average.  The Cardinals are 43-15 in their last 58 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.  Stults can't be trusted on the road where he's 1-9 with a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts.  The Padres are 3-9 in Stults' last 12 starts and 7-20 in his last 27 road starts.  Lackey is 6-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 home starts, and his home ERA likely would be lower had he been pitching in the NL all season.  Pound St. Louis.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -161

Bottom Line: The Mariners hold a significant advantage on the rubber with Iwakuma, who has a 2.86 ERA on the season and a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts.  He's given up 2 runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts.  Dickey has a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts and a 4.03 ERA in 12 road starts.  He's allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 10 starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 road games, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter and 0-4 in Dickey's last 4 starts following a team loss in the previous game.  The Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games versus winning clubs.  Playing favorites of -150 or more has resulted in an 89-22 record since 1997 if they are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or less over his last 10 starts and have a team batting average of .265 or less and are facing a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower.  This system is 11-3 on the season.  Pound Seattle.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Nationals -140

Bottom Line: The Nationals are 8-0 in their last 8 at Citi Field, and they'll be hungry after Sunday's 3-1 loss in Atlanta cost them the series.  The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game while the Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Fister has been a machine of late with a 0.84 ERA over his last three starts.  He's gone five consecutive starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs.  The Nationals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 5 days' rest.  He's also 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Mets.  New York is recalling Montero here, and that's good news for the Nats.  The Mets are 0-4 in his 4 career starts while he's compiled a 5.40 ERA.  Pound the Nationals.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Yankees -133

Bottom Line: The Indians evened the series behind their ace, but I don't see them taking the series with Carrasco making his first start since April.  The Indians are just 2-12 in their last 14 in the Bronx.  Carrasco has given up at least 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts, and the Tribe is 3-14 in his last 17 starts and 1-8 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Carrasco is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus the Yanks, allowing 13 runs in 7 2-3 innings  The Yankees are 7-2 in Kuroda's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  Kuroda has given up more than 3 earned runs only 3 times in his last 15 starts.  Kuroda hasn't allowed more than 5 hits or 3 runs in any of his 3 starts versus the Indians.  Pound the Yankees.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -157

Bottom Line: The Pirates, who are an NL-best 37-22 at home, are worth the price today.  They are 11-2 over their last 13 home games while the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 on the road, including 0-4 in their last 4 away games versus winning clubs.  Liriano has been lights out of late with a 1.44 ERA in 4 starts since the All-Star break.  The Pirates are 15-5 in his last 20 home starts and 8-1 in his last 9 home starts as a favorite of -151 to -200.  Stults has a 5.77 ERA on the road this season, and the Padres are 6-20 in his last 26 road starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Reds -123

Bottom Line: Cincy is 8-1 in its last 9 games versus the Marlins.  It is also 19-6 in its last 25 home games versus the Fish.  Look for Cincy's dominance to continue behind Leake, who is 2-0 in his last 2 starts while allowing 1 run in 13 2-3 innings.  He's also 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 3 career starts versus Miami.  Miami's Eovaldi has a 5.82 ERA over his last 7 starts.  The Marlins are 3-9 in his last 12 starts, 2-8 in his last 10 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Cincy is 22-4 lifetime in Leake's home starts in the 2nd half of the season versus teams that strikeout 7 times per game or more.  Pound the Reds.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Pirates -134

Bottom Line: Flynn has made 4 career starts for the Marlins.  They are 0-4 in those starts while he's compiled an 8.50 ERA and a .370 opponent average.  No matter what uniform Volquez has worn, he's own the Marlins.  His clubs are 6-0 in his 6 career starts against them while posting a tidy 1.95 ERA.  Additionally, the Pirates are 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 starts versus teams with a losing record.  Pound the Pirates.

5* Wiseguy Interleague *BEST BET* on Angels -147

Bottom Line: AL clubs that average 4.7 to 5.2 runs per game and are starting a pitcher who averages 5.0 strikeouts per start or more are 54-18 since 1997 if they are matched up against an NL club that is starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20.  Haren has a 4.76 ERA on the season and has really started to unravel, going 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an ERA of 10.03.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy Interleague Game of the Month on Cardinals -148

Bottom Line: Having yesterday off should be just what the doctor ordered for St. Louis, which is 17-2 the last 2 seasons in home games following a day off.  And, the Cards will show no mercy to the team that defeated them in the World Series.  Boston is 2-10 in its last 12 games and doesn't figure to get much help from De La Rosa, who has a 6.04 ERA on the road.  The Red Sox are 0-4 in De La Rosa's last 4 road starts.  The Cards are 72-32 the last 3 seasons versus teams getting outscored by an average of 0.5 runs or more per game, including 23-3 in home games played in the second half of the season during this span.  Lynn has a 2.98 ERA on the season, a 2.71 ERA at home and a 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Pound the Cards.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on A's -140

Bottom Line: Cobb is pitching great, but his 3.45 road ERA is over a run higher than the 2.30 home ERA Samardzija has posted.  Plus, the A's have already seen Cobb this season while the Rays have never faced Samardzija.  It will be mighty tough for Tampa to figure out a pitcher it's not familiar with, especially when that pitcher has posted a 0.82 WHIP while holding foes to a .203 avg. since coming over from the NL.  The Athletics are 4-0 in Samardzija's 4 starts as a favorite and 77-34 in their last 111 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Rays are 18-45 in their last 63 meetings in Oakland.  Pound the A's.

5* Wiseguy MLB Underdog Game of the Week on Orioles +103

Bottom Line: The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games and 0-4 in Iwakuma's last 4 starts versus the American League East.  Iwakuma has a 5.25 ERA in 2 career starts versus the Orioles, one of those being a 4-0 home loss last week.  The Orioles are 15-4 in Tillman's last 19 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 11-4 in his last 15 starts as an underdog.  Tillman is 5-0 lifetime with an ERA of 2.46 and a WHIP of 0.909 in 5 starts versus the Mariners.  The Mariners are 6-14 in the last 20 meetings and 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore.  Pound the O's.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on White Sox -119

Bottom Line: Here, we have a pair of teams headed in opposite directions, and I'm getting behind the one on the upswing at a very reasonable price.  The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 games.  They are even 1-7 in their last eight versus teams that have a sub .500 record and 0-4 in their last 4 in the second game of a series.  The White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 and 4-1 in their last 5 versus Minnesota.  The Twins won at home when Pino and Carroll dueled Sunday, but Carroll gave up just 1 run and has been trending in the right direction with a 2.38 ERA over his last 4 outings.  He gave up 1 or no runs in 3 of those.  Playing against all AL teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that average 4.2 runs per game or fewer and allowed 10 runs or more last game has resulted in a 75-36 record the last 5 seasons.  Additionally, AL home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 that have a team batting averaging of .265 or worse but are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 34-14 since 1997, including a perfect 3-0 the last 3 seasons.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy Run Line Blowout Game of the Month on White Sox -1.5 -125

Bottom Line: Last Saturday, Sale easily outdueled Darnell in a 7-0 win at Minnesota.  I expect no different tonight in Chicago.  Sale is 10-1 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP on the season.  The WHIP is extremely significant.  Consider that Minnesota is 0-13 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or better.  The Twins have lost these contests by an average of 4.0 runs.  Sale is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.28 and a 0.993 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Twins.  Each of the 6 victories have come by at least 2 runs.  Pound the Sox on the run line.

5* Wiseguy MLB Total of the Week on Reds/Marlins UNDER 6.5

Bottom Line: Cincy's offense is really struggling.  It has scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of its last 12 games while batting .189.  With Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips on the DL and Jay Bruce on the bereavement list, I see the offensive struggles continuing.  The Reds will have a tough time getting to Koehler, who has a 2.75 home ERA on the season and a 1.38 ERA over his last 2 starts at Marlins Park.  Miami has scored 3 runs or less in 14 of its last 19 games, and it will get nothing easy off Cueto, who has posted a 2.08 ERA.  The under is 37-17-2 in Cueto's last 56 starts.  The under is 9-1 in Cincy's last 10 games and 4-0 in its last 4 road games.  It is also 8-0 in its last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 in its last 4 series openers.  Pound the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals -144

Bottom Line: KC's Duffy has been dealing all season, as evidenced by his 2.47 ERA.  He's been almost unhittable lately with a 1.93 ERA over his last 6 outings and a 0.92 ERA over his last 3.  He has a 2.13 ERA in 6 career appearances versus Minnesota.  Hughes has a 4.10 ERA on the season, a 6.31 ERA over his last 7 starts and a 7.20 ERA over his last 3.  He also has a 5.89 ERA in 9 career starts versus KC.  The Twins are 5-21 this season when facing an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better.  Twins are 1-4 in Hughes' last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Royals are 45-21 in their last 66 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 25-12 in their last 37 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  KC is 10-4 in its last 14 home games versus Minnesota.  Pound the Royals.

5* Wiseguy NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Dodgers -148

Bottom Line: The Braves are 0-10 the last 2 seasons in road games when facing an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  They have lost these contests 3.6 runs on average.  Additionally, playing against underdogs of +125 to +175 that have a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower on the season but are batting .250 or worse as a team has resulted in a 97-39 record since 1997 if they are facing an NL starter with an ERA of 2.70 or lower.  Plus, this is a tough situational spot for the Braves, which made the long trip from Atlanta to LA following yesterday's game.  The Dodgers should benefit from having been at home yesterday and having the day off.  Pound the Dodgers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Cubs -142

Bottom Line: The Rockies are 15-37 in their last 52 overall and 25-56 in their last 81 on the road, including 1-12 in their last 13 and 0-6 in their last 6.  They are 16-41 in their last 57 road games versus a left-handed starter, 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games, 5-17 in their last 22 series openers and 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Chicago.  Colorado is also 0-4 in Flande's 4 career starts, during which he's posted a 7.20 ERA.  The Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 series openers and have the more promising starter on the hill with Wada.  Flande was 2-10 with an ERA of 5.00 in triple-A this season before getting the call up.  Wada was 10-6 with a 2.77 ERA in triple-A before getting his call.  You want to play against National League July road dogs of +125 to +175 that give up 4.8 runs per game or more on the season as doing so has produced a 43-7 record the last 5 seasons, an 11-1 record the last 3 seasons and a 3-0 record this season.  Pound Chicago.

5* Wiseguy NL Game of the Week on Phillies -140

Bottom Line: Lee was rocked in his first start back, but he almost always follows a poor outing with a strong one.  He has every incentive to pitch well here in an audition spot prior to the trade deadline.  He has a 2.83 home ERA on the season while Collmenter has a 5.17 road ERA.  Lee has a 3.12 ERA in 7 starts versus the D-backs, and the Phillies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts against them.  Lee's clubs are 4-0 lifetime in his home starts versus the Snakes.  The D-backs are 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage less than .400 and 3-14 in their last 17 in Philadelphia.  Pound the Phillies.

5* Wiseguy AL East Game of the Week on Yankees -125

Bottom Line: Toronto shut out Boston yesterday, but it is 0-9 under manager Gibbons following a win over a division opponent where it allowed one run or none.  It has lost by an average of 3.3 runs in this situation.  The Yankees are 16-0 in their last 16 at home versus Toronto, and they have owned Buehrle, whose clubs are 0-9 in his last nine road starts versus the Yankees.  Kuroda has had much better luck versus the Blue Jays, going 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 career home starts against them, including 2 wins over Buehrle.  Pound New York.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Mariners -132

Bottom Line: The Mariners are showing a lot of value at this price given the edge they hold on the mound with Iwakuma.  The right-hander has been rock solid at home (2.81 ERA) and enters in top form (1.59 ERA L3 starts).  The same can't be said about Baltimore's Chen, who has a 4.68 ERA on the road and a 4.32 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Chen is also 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in 4 starts versus Seattle.  Chen hasn't pitched well enough to have 10 wins.  He's benefited from the league's highest run support average (6.36).  Unfortunately for him, the Orioles are batting a big league-worst .205 since July 9 and .167 in their past four games.  I don't see the O's getting enough off Iwakuma to get the win tonight.  AL favorites of -110 or higher are 57-15 the last 5 seasons when starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower against an opponent that is starting a pitcher with a win percentage higher than 70.0 percent.  Pound the M's.

5* Wiseguy AL Game of the Week on Angels -162

Bottom Line: Tillman is 6-0 on the road, but his 4.69 ERA away from home is a big concern.  An LA club that leads the majors with 5.0 runs per game should be able to get to him.  Baltimore has been able to provide Tillman with run support on the road, but it will have a tough time getting much off Weaver.  The Angels are 6-0 in his last 6 starts, during which he's posted a 2.78 ERA.  He has a 2.26 ERA in his last 10 home starts.  The Angels are 89-36 lifetime in Weaver's home starts, including 39-12 in his last 51.  The Halos are also 27-6 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, including 20-4 at home in this price range.  Pound the Angels.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -125

Bottom Line: The Tigers have cashed 5* Wiseguy tickets for us the past two days, and I'll continue to ride them at a very reasonable price against an inferior opponent.  Detroit is 12-3 in its last 15 road games, 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 road starts and 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Tigers have been playing exceptional defense, and this is significant because they are 7-0 this season in road games after a stretch of 15 consecutive games with one error or less.  The Diamondbacks are an ultra soft 1-10 in their last 11 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Tigers are showing a ton of value at this price on the road (11-3 L14 road games), in interleague play (54-25 L79 interleague games versus losing teams) and versus a lefty starter (batting .289 vs. lefty starters this season, 27-11 L38 games versus lefty starters).  Even more importantly, they have Verlander on the bump.  While Big V has been average this season, his track record of success versus the NL can't be ignored. He's an unbeaten 12-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 14 regular-season interleague starts since June of 2010.  Look for Verlander to outduel Nuno, who is 0-3 in his last 3, 1-5 in his last 6 and 3-9 in his last 12 on the money line.  Pound the Tigers.

5* Wiseguy MLB *BEST BET* on Tigers -134

Bottom Line: The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin's last 6 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 4 of a series and 2-7 in his last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  The Indians are 4-13 in their last 17 road games versus a left-handed starter and 16-35 in their last 51 in Detroit.  The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games following defeat in the first 3 games of a series and 11-5 in their last 16 game 4's of a series.  Cleveland hasn't swept a series in Detroit since Aug 25-27, 2008, and it has never recorded a 4-game sweep there.  Pound Detroit.