Winning Sports Picks

4* Major CFB BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Colorado +16

Bottom Line: Look for Colorado to blow this spread out of the water by taking the Sun Devils right down to the wire.  Colorado brings back 8 starters on each side of the ball while ASU returns only 8 starters total.  The Buffs also return 20 more lettermen than ASU.  Experience should serve Colorado well as conference home dogs of 10.5-21 points that return their QB and 8 or more offensive starters are 67-35 ATS the last 10 seasons.  ASU has put the hurt on the Buffs in recent years, but this is where they have their shot at revenge.
 

4* Major CFB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Rice +32

Bottom Line: Rice went to Texas A&M and lost by just 21 points last season.  Having had a bye week to prepare, I expect it to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers have projected.  These schools have played 5 times the last 22 years with all 5 meetings being decided by 28 points or less. The Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus winning teams, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Bet Rice.

5* Wiseguy Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College +17

Bottom Line: Look for USC to come out flat following a huge win over Stanford.  The Trojans defeated Boston College 35-7 last season and won't give the Eagles the focus they deserve as a result.  The Trojans are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road contests.  The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a spread loss.  Pound BC.

4* Major CFB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Bowling Green +7

Bottom Line: Bowling Green had this game circled heading into the season because it was embarrassed 42-10 at Indiana last season.  I love BG's chances for revenge.  Playing non-conference home underdogs of 3.5-10 points that completed 62% or more of their passes last season has resulted in an 8-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.  Indiana is 0-12 ATS after outrushing an opponent by 200 or more yards in its last game the last 22 years.  Under coach Wilson, it is 0-6 ATS after a win by 17 points or more, 0-7 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game and 0-6 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.  Bowling Green is 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards last game, 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after allowing 9 points or less last game, 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons after a win by 21 or more points and 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  Bet Bowling Green.

5* Wiseguy CFB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Buffalo +36

Bottom Line: As if last week's disappointing performance at Army isn't enough motivation, the Bulls were clobbered 70-13 at Baylor last season.  They'll be looking to save a little face by keeping this once respectable and will put forth maximum effort to do so.  Baylor is riding high off a pair of lopsided wins but now hits the road for the first time and on a short week.  It also has the memory of last year's easy win over Buffalo in its mind so I don't expect it to give the Bulls its full attention.  QB Bryce Petty is expected back but he'll likely be a little out of rhythm and could have trouble finding chemistry with a new cast of receivers.  Injuries are expected to prevent 4 of Baylor's top playmakers from taking the field tonight.  Even if the Bears are able to get out to an early lead, I expect them to call off the dogs, leaving the backdoor wide open.  They know they have much more important games ahead.  Pound Buffalo.

4* Major NCAAF ESPN *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Houston/BYU UNDER 58

Bottom Line: We saw a shootout with 93 total points scored in last season's meeting, and I expect both teams to tighten the screws defensively as a result.  BYU is 36-17 UNDER when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992.  The Cougars are 7-0 UNDER after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  Playing the UNDER on any team (BYU) that averages 190-230 rushing yards per game against a team that holds opponents to 100-140 rushing yards per game, in a non-conference matchup, has resulted in a 44-16 record the last 5 seasons.  Bet the UNDER.

4* Major NCAAF *SUREFIRE* on Louisiana Tech +4

Bottom Line: Playing against home teams in the first month of the season has resulted in a 60-25 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they allowed opponents to complete 58% or more of their passes last season.  North Texas won last season's meeting 28-13 despite being outgained and giving up 367 yards through the air because it finished the game +2 in turnover margin.  The Bulldogs led the game 10-0 but found themselves down 14-10 at the half after giving up a 56-yard pick-6 that really swung the momentum.  I look for the Bulldogs to take better care of the football this time around - they've only had 1 giveaway this season - and to have their revenge.

4* Major Non-Conference Blowout on Northwestern -7

Bottom Line: Look for Northwestern to respond following last week's upset home loss to Cal.  NIU looked strong against Presbyterian but takes a big step up in class here.  The Huskies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.  The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests.  Bet Northwestern.

4* Major Oddsmaker Error on Navy -3

Bottom Line: Temple, which won only 2 games last season, looks to be improved, but I'll gladly lay a field goal with Navy.  The Owls kicked Vanderbilt last week, but the Commodores really helped them out with 7 turnovers.  Navy's not going to cough it up like that.  Navy's ground game was strong against mighty Ohio State, racking up 370 yards on 63 carries, and I don't see Temple having an answer for it.  Playing against home teams in the first month of the season with just 5 offensive starters returning, provided they closed last season with at least 4 losses in their last 5 games, has resulted in a 35-11 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  This system is 13-2 ATS the last 3 seasons.

5* Wiseguy College Football Underdog Game of the Week on Iowa State +13

Bottom Line: Motivated by a 34-14 loss to FCS North Dakota State, and with last season's 41-7 defeat at K-State adding fuel to the fire, I expect a major response from Paul Rhoads' team.  K-State has won 6 straight in the series, but the previous 5 victories have come by 8 points or fewer.  The Cyclones have won or played the Wildcats to within 6 points or less in each of the last 4 meetings in Ames.  Home dogs of 10.5-21 points with 8 or more offensive starters returning including the QB are 40-12 ATS since 1992 following a game where they were outgained by 225 yards or more.  Pound the Cyclones.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Washington State -3.5

Bottom Line: The Cougars will be hungry following a tough loss to Rutgers in their opener.  After dropping last year's opener to Auburn, Washington State bounced back strong with a win at Southern Cal.  I expect a similar response here.  The Cougars were a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games last season, and they are 6-0 ATS under Leach in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards.  Playing on any team in the first 2 weeks of the season that was a bowl team the previous season has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they lost their last 2 games the previous season and had a losing record.  Pound Washington State.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (FoxS1) on UTSA +7.5

Bottom Line: We cashed an easy winner on the Roadrunners last week, and we'll ride them again here.  Consider that non-conference home dogs of 3.5-10 points are 30-6 ATS the last 10 seasons if they had a winning record the previous season.  Additionally, playing against non-conference road favorites of 3.5-10 points in a matchup between teams that had winning records the previous season has resulted in a 45-16 ATS record since 1992.  The Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 17-8 ATS as underdogs under coach Coker.  Pound UTSA.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Miami +3.5

Bottom Line: This isn't the same Louisville team that kicked Miami in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. Teddy Bridgewater is gone and so is head coach Charlie Strong.  In addition, the Cardinals bring back only 4 starters on the defensive side of the football, and preseason 1st Team All ACC receiver Devante Parker is expected to miss 6 weeks.  Miami returns 7 starters on each side of the ball from a team that started last season 7-0.  I expect another strong start from the Hurricanes, who are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games as underdogs of 7 points or fewer.  Pound Miami.

4* Major NCAAF *SUREFIRE* on Utah State +5.5

Bottom Line: Playing against home teams that return 5 offensive starters in the first month of the season, provided they closed last season with 4 losses or more in their last 5 games, has resulted in a 35-10 ATS record the last 10 seasons.  Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 6.1 points on average but have lost straight up by 1.1 points on average.  This system has produced a near-perfect 13-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons.  Utah State's stingy defense has held 8 of its last 12 foes to 17 points or fewer.  Look for the Aggies to keep this one within the number behind a strong defensive effort.

4* Major *MARQUEE MATCHUP* Georgia -7.5

Bottom Line: Look for Clemson to take a step back after losing Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins.  Georgia lost by 3 points to Clemson last season but had won the previous 5 meetings with the last 4 of those wins coming by 15.3 points on average.  Georgia has typically dominated ACC foes, going 22-9 ATS versus the league since 1992.  Georgia leads the all-time series 41-18-4, and I expect the SEC to flex its muscles here.

4* Major SEC *SUREFIRE* on Arkansas +19.5

Bottom Line: We'll look to take advantage of an inflated line that stems from Arkansas underachieving and Auburn overachieving last season.  With the exception of a 4-game rough patch in the middle of the season, the Razorbacks were very competitive last season.  6 of their losses came by 18 points or less.  6 of Auburn's 2013 victories came by single digits.  The Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Auburn.  Bet Arkansas.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF Blowout Game of the Week on Ohio State -16

Bottom Line: I'll back the Buckeyes in what should be an inspired performance from them.  They ended last season on a sour note, dropping their last two games after winning their first 12.  As if that's not enough motivation, they'll be out to prove they are national title contenders even without Braxton Miller.  I don't think Miller's absence will matter.  The Buckeyes have more speed, more size and more athleticism all over the field on both sides of the ball.  I look for them to really dominate the line of scrimmage.  Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points are 43-15 ATS the last 10 seasons if they won 80% or more of their games the previous season.  Teams fitting this system have been favored by 15.2 points on average, but have won by 22.5 points on average.  This system is 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.  Pound Ohio State.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on UTSA +11.5

Bottom Line: The Roadrunners were embarrassed at home by Houston last season, and they will be out for some serious revenge as a result.  They lost the game 59-28, but the score doesn't tell the entire story as they outgained Houston.  The difference was a minus-5 turnover margin.  I just don't see there being such a huge difference in the turnover column this time around, which means these 11.5 points are looking pretty good, especially since the Roadrunners return 20 starters.  UTSA is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games, 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 7-1 ATS in its last 8 non-conference contests.  The Cougars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.  Pound the Road runners.

5* Wiseguy NCAAF *BEST BET* on Tulsa -6.5

Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Tulsa, which had won 8 straight over Tulane by an average of 30.9 points.  Tulsa is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this stretch.  These 4 home wins have come by an average of 36.8 points.  The Golden Hurricane outgained the Green Wave in last year's loss but was done in by 8 penalties totaling nearly 100 yards and a -2 turnover margin.  Look for Tulsa to have its revenge at home.